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System Dynamics Modeling:

Overview & Causal Loop Diagrams


Nathaniel Osgood
CMPT 394

1-17-2013

What is System Dynamics?

A feedback-oriented perspective

A broad, evolving methodology to help
Conceptualize
Describe
Analyze
Manage
feedback systems

System Dynamics offers
Qualitative & quantitative components
A defined, incremental and iterative modeling
process that delivers value throughout
Time-honed techniques for working with diverse
interdisciplinary stakeholders
Evolved software permitting focus on the
what is being described not how it is run
A rigorous mathematical foundation
A rich set of analysis tools
Techniques for interfacing closely with cognate
areas (e.g. statistics, decision sciences, evidence-based
practices, applied mathematics, other modeling approaches, etc.)

Differences in Framing the Issues
Modeling methodologies are often
distinguished more fundamentally by the
questions being asked than by the answers
being given
Such methodologies will often be most
distinguished by the way in which they
frame problems
In comparing, we must be conscious of
these differences
Engagement in the Human Theatre
Uses of SD Models [Hovmand]

[Modeling] Power to the People:
Fostering Participatory Discourse
To empower participatory modeling, System
Dynamics tends towards simpler formalisms
Capturing qualitative understanding
Easy understanding by stakeholders:
Simulation model
Inspection
Dialogue
Manipulation
Declarative (programming free) specification
Intuitive graphical representation
Features support high stakeholder involvement in
model conceptualization, formulation & analysis

Stages of the System Dynamics
Modeling Process

A Key Deliverable!
Model scope/boundary
selection.
Model time horizon
Identification of
key variables
Reference modes for
explanation

Causal loop diagrams
Stock & flow diagrams
Policy structure
diagrams
Group model building
Specification of
Parameters
Quantitative causal
relations
Decision rules
Initial conditions
Reference mode
reproduction
Matching of
intermediate time
series
Matching of
observed data point
Constrain to sensible
bounds
Structural sensitivity
analysis
Specification &
investigation of
intervention scenarios
Investigation of
hypothetical external
conditions
Cross-scenario
comparisons (e.g.
CEA)
Parameter sensitivity
analysis
Cross-validation
Robustness&extreme case
tests
Unit checking
Problem domain tests
Formal analysis
Learning
environm
ents/Micr
oworlds/f
light
simulator
s


Qualitative &
Semi-quantitative insights
Infectives
New Infections
People Presenting
for Treatment
Waiting Times
+
+
Health Care Staff
-
Susceptibles
-
Contacts of
Susceptibles with
Infectives
+
+
+
+
Normal and
Underweight
Weight
Overweight
Pregnant with GDM
History of GDM T2DM
Developing Obesity
Pregnant Normal
Weight Mothers
with No GDM
History
Completion of Pregnancy
to Non-Overweight State
Completion of GDM
Pregnancy
Women with History of
GDM Developing T2DM
Overweight Individuals Developing T2DM
Normal Weight
Individuals Developing
T2DM
Pregnant with
T2DM
New Pregnancies from
Mother with T2DM Completion of Pregnancy for Mother with T2DM
Pregnant
Overweight
Mothers with No
GDM History
Pregnancies of
Overweight Women
Completion of
Pregnancy to
Overweight State
Pregnancies of
Non-Overweight
Women
Pregnancies to Overweight
Mother Developing GDM
Pregnancies to
Non-Overweight Mother
Developing GDM
Pregnant with
Pre-Existing History of
GDM
Pregnancies for
Women with GDM
Pregnancies Developing
GDM from Mother with
GDM History
Completion of Non-GDM
Pregnancy for Woman with
History of GDM
Shedding Obesity
Pregnant Women
Developing Persistent
Overweight/Obesity
Oveweight Babies Born
from T2DM Mothers
Pregnant Women with GDM
that Continue on to
Postpartum T2DM
Normal Weight Babies Born
from Non-GDM Mother with
History of GDM
Overweight Babies Born from
Non-GDM Mother with
History of GDM
Normal Weight Babies
Born from GDM
Pregnancy
Overweight Babies Born
from GDM Pregnancy
Overweight Babies Born to
Pregnant Normal Weight
Mothers
Overweight Babies Born
from Pregnant Overweight
Mothers
Normal Weight Babies Born to
Mothers without GDM
Normal Weight Babies
Born from T2DM
Pregnancy
Pregnancy
Duration
<Birth Rate>
Normal Weight Babies Born
to Overweight Mothers
without GDM
Normal Weight
Deaths
Overweight
Deaths
T2DM Deaths
Deaths from Non-T2DM
Women with History of
GDM
( )
( )
2
2
2
2
( )
( )
S I h I I
h
S I h I I
h
| t |
o
| t |
o
(
+
(
(
(
+
(
(

Baseline
50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95% 98% 100%
Average Variable Cost per Cubic Meter
0.6
0.45
0.3
0.15
0
0 1457 2914 4371 5828
Time (Day)
Quantitative insights
Value of the Modeling Process
Often the modeling process itself rather
than the models created offers the
greatest value
Modeling as theory building: Refinement of
mental models
Reflecting on
Mental models
What is & is not known / data
Different perspectives



Benefits of Rich Stakeholder Participation
Developing rich, grounded understanding
Building community capacity
Critiquing model behavior
Fostering stakeholder cooperation
Implementing policy recommendations
Facilitating data collection design
Aiding in replanning
Keeping model updated
Empowering community self-guidance
Dignity of Risk [Hovmand]
Group Model Building [Hovmand]

Group Model Building [Hovmand]

Model Conceptualization: Feedback Loops
Loops in a causal loop diagram indicate
feedback in the system being represented
Qualitatively speaking, this indicates that a
given change kicks off a set of changes that
cascade through other factors so as to either
amplify (reinforce) or push back against
(damp, balance) the original change

Loop classification: product of signs in
loop (best to trace through conceptually)
Balancing loop: Product of signs negative
Reinforcing loop: Product of signs positive

Example: Physical Systems
With & Without Feedbacks
Balancing
Driving / flying
Thermic regulation: Hot blooded
(homeothermy) vs. cold blooded
(ecothermic) animals

Introducing a feedback can
fundamentally alter a systems
behaviour





Recall: A Common Problem:
Overly Narrow Mental Models
Most decisions are based on mental models
Frequently the failure to anticipate &
account for policy resistance is due to
narrow mental models
Deleterious effects are blamed on side effects
of anticipated process
Failure to consider interactions between diverse
pieces of system (each of which may be well
understood)
System dynamics seeks a broader
understanding of the underlying system
Examples of Deleterious Feedbacks
Cutting cigarette tar levels reduces cessation
Cutting cigarette nicotine levels leads to
compensatory smoking
Targeted anti-tobacco interventions lead to equally
targeted coupon programs by tobacco industry
Charging for supplies for diabetics leads to higher
overall costs by increases costs due to reduced self-
management, faster disease progression
ARVs prolong lives of HIV carriers, but lead to
resurgent HIV epidemic due to lower risk perception
Saving money by understaffing STI clinics, leads to
long treatment wait, greater risk of transmission by
infectives & bigger epidemics
Antibiotic overuse worsens pathogen resistance
Antilock breaks lead to more risky driving
Natural feedback: Intergenerational Vicious Cycles

Causal Loop Diagram
Focuses on capturing causality and
especially feedback effects
Indicates sign of causal impact (+ vs. )

x
+
y indicates
x
-
y indicates


Hunger
Food Ingested
+
-
0
y
x
c
>
c
0
y
x
c
<
c
Causal Loop Diagram
An arrow with a positive sign (+): all
else remaining equal, an increase
(decrease) in the first variable increases
(decreases) the second variable above
(below) what it would otherwise have
been.
An arrow with a negative sign (-): all
else remaining equal, an increase
(decrease) in the first variable decreases
(increases) the second variable below
(above) what it otherwise would have
been.
Reasoning about Link Polarity
Easy to get confused regarding link
polarity in the context of a causal chain
Tips for reasoning about link polarity
for XY
Reason about this link in isolation
Do not be concerned about links preceding X or
following Y
Ask if X were to INCREASE, would Y
increase or decrease?
Increase in Y implies +,decrease in Y implies -
If answer is not clear or depends on value of X, need to
think about representing several paths between X and Y

Tips
Variables should be noun phrases
Variables should be at least ordinal
Links should have unambiguous
polarity
Remember factors involving people
Avoid mega-diagrams
Label loops
Distinguish perceived and actual
situation
Incorporate targets of balancing loops
Try to stick to planar graphs

Ambiguous Link
Ambiguous Link: Sometimes +,
sometimes -

Replace this by disaggregating causal
pathways by showing multiple links

Overtime
Fatigue
More Time
Working
Greater Incorporation of
Outside Tasks at Work
Efficiency
+
+
-
-
Work Accomplished
per Day
+
+
+
Overtime
Work Accomplished
per Day
+
Feedback Loops
Loops in a causal loop diagram
indicate feedback in the system being
represented
Qualitatively speaking, this indicates that a
given change kicks off a set of changes
that cascade through other factors so as
to either amplify (reinforce) or damp
(balance) original change
Loop classification: product of signs in
loop (best to trace through
conceptually)
Balancing loop: Product of signs negative
Reinforcing loop: Product of signs
positive

Dysphoria &
Stress
Substance Abuse
Costs
Employability
Stigmatization
+
-
Nutrition
-
Risk of Injury &
Accidents
+
+
Health
Poverty
-
+
+
+
-
+
Capacity for
Productive
Work
-
+
Impulse towards
Self-Medication
+
+
Reinforcing (positive) feedback
Balancing (negative) feedback
Advantages of Recognizing Feedback
Balancing Feedback
(Stability)
Reinforcing feedback
(Instability)
Desirable Securing resiliency
Individual self-
regulation
Enabling rapid intervention
success
Viral approaches, peer
messaging, rapid social change
Undesirable Preventing policy resistance
& adverse lock in effects
Low tar & nicotine
cigarettes
Risk perception for
Infectious diseases

Heading off rapidly growing
vicious cycles
Addictions, cycle of poverty,
SAVA
Structure interventions (and system) to
achieve this
and prevent this
Gates Comments
The biggest advantage we have is that
good developers like to work with good
developers
[Cusumano&Selby,95]
Most people dont get millions of
people giving them feedback about their
productsWe have this whole group of
[2000] people in the US alone that takes
phone calls about our products and logs
everything thats done. So we have a
better feedback loop, including the
market
[Cusumano&Selby,95]

As [NT] got more applications, NT
servers got more popular. As its
gotten more popular, weve got
more applications.
Computer Reseller News, 9-23-1996
[T] he more users [the internet]
gets, the more content it gets, the
more users it gets.
Red Herring, 10-1995
Its all about scale economies and
market share. When youre
shipping a million units of Windows
software a month, you can afford to
spend $300 million a year improving
it and still sell at a low price.
[Fortune, 6-14-1993]

Examples: Vicious/Virtuous Cycles
Positive (reinforcing) feedback can
lead to extremely rapid changes in
situation
Existing Users
Likelihood of Cross Listing
and Listing on Search
Engines
+
New Users
Discovering Site
+
Number of Connections to
Music Download Server
Length of Time Per
Download
Likelihood of User Starting
Multiple Simultaneous
Downloads
+
+
+
Confusing Code
Ease of Understanding
where to Make a Change
Confusing
Additions
+
-
-
Word of
Mouth Sales
Customers
+
+
+
Simple Causal Loops
Change Requests
Project Duration
Remaining Work
+
+
+
Overbearing PM
Management Style
Willingness of Project
Part icipant s t o share info
with PM
PM Suspicion
-
-
+
Target Budget
Estimated Design Cost s
beyond Target Budget
Design Scope
-
+
-
Changes to
Schedule
Job Rhythm
Aggregate
Product ivit y
-
+
-
Example Balancing Loops
Balancing loops tend to be self-
regulating
Aggregate Computer
Responsiveness
Programs Run
Simultaneously
Virtual Memory
Swapping
+
+
-
Mistakes
Learning from
Mistakes
+
-
Risk Management

Unmanaged Risks
Schedule
Disruptions
+
Time taken for Risk
Assessment and
Management
-
-
Longer Term Cost of Pressure:
Cutting Corners

Weinberg, Quality Software management
Vicious Cycles

Weinberg, Quality Software management
Turnover Vicious Cycle

Developer Fatigue
Morale
Resignations
-
Backlog of Work
+
-
-
Work per Team
Member
+
Extra Hiring
Related Work
+
Team Productivity
-
-
-
Reinforcing Loop Dynamics:
Exponential Growth

Example



Dynamic
implications



Word of
Mouth Sales
Customers
+
+
+
Graph for Stock
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Time (Month)
Stock : Current
Site Popularity
Likelihood of Cross Listing
and Listing on Search
Engines
+
+
Causal Loop Dynamics: Goal Seeking
(Balancing Loop)
Example:


Dynamic behavior




Hunger
Food Ingested
+
-
Treshold for Policy
Dissatisfaction to Lead to
Action
Threshold Hunger to
Motivate Eating
Causal Loop Dynamics: Oscillation
(Balancing Loop with Delay)
Causal Structure




Dynamic Behavior:
Growth and Plateau
Loop structure:
Reinforcing Loop
Balancing Loop

Dynamic Behavior:



Word of
Mouth Sales
Customers
+
+
+
Potential
Customers
-
+
-
Graph for Customer
100,000
75,000
50,000
25,000
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Time ( Month)
Customer : Cur rent
Existing Users
Likelihood of Cross Listing
and Listing on Search
Engines
+
New Users
Discovering Site
+
Internet Users Yet to
Discover Site
-
+
From Tsai
Regulatory Mechanisms

Weinberg, Quality Software management
Perverse Incentives Under Stress

Weinberg, Quality Software management
Elaborating Causal Loops
Work Remaining
Work Pressure
Product ivity
+
+
-
Work Remaining
Work Pressure
Product ivity
+
+
-
Fatigue
+
-
Elaborating Causal Loops 2
Project
Performance
Managerial Desire
to Blame
Information
Availability
Quality of Management
Decision Making
-
-
+
+
Project
Performance
Managerial Desire
to Blame
Information
Availability
Quality of Management
Decision Making
Managerial Trust of
Developers
-
+
+
+
Developer's Trust of
Manager
+
+
+
-
+
Exercise 1: Link & Loop Polarity
Label the polarity of each
link in this diagram


What factor is missing?

Is the feedback
positive or negative?
Population of
Downloading Users
Time per
Download
Bandwidth
Available to Server
Bandwidth Available
Per Connection
Exercise 2: Unanticipated Side
Effects
Seeking modest investment in
Blackberries for productivity
enhancement

Muddied by unanticipated side
effects
Exercise 3: Link & Loop Polarity
Create one or more causal loops
relating
Project Morale
Project Turnover
Workload
Project delay
Are these loops positive or negative?
Do these loops all have the same
time to kick in (time constants)?
One Set of Loops

Developer Fatigue
Morale
Resignations
-
Backlog of Work
+
-
-
Work per Team
Member
+
Extra Hiring
Related Work
+
Team Productivity
-
-
-
Recall: Dealing with Symptoms vs.
Causes
Our focus is often on undesirable
symptoms (high cost, schedule
delay, poor quality) rather than on
underlying causes
Often a project is in severe trouble by
the time these obvious (and easily
quantifiable) symptoms appear
Often choices of interventions fail to
consider broader (and perhaps less
quantifiable) effects of actions

A Consulting Case

Managerial Pressure
Narrow mental model
aims for this goal


Unanticipated side effects push back
vs. time savings & cause quality
problems


A Bigger Picture

Project Lateness
Thoroughness of
Testing
Reliability of Bug
Fixes
Managerial
Pressure
Overtime
Time for Bug Fix
Task
Fatigue
Multiplexing of
Tasks
Coordination and
Degree of Thought for
Fixes
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
-
+
+
Pressure for "Quick
and Dirty" Fixes
-
-
New Defect
Resolution Rate
-
-
Total Patent or
Latent Defects
Defects
Resolution Rate
+
-
+
Work Accomplished
per Day
+
-
Debugging Work to
be Done
+
+
+ Quality of Released
Product
+
-
Morale
-
-
- +
-
-
Resignations
-
-
-
-
New Hiring
Training Needs
Fraction of Staff that is
New to Project
Familiarity of Workers
with Codebase
-
-
Path Dependence/Network Effects
& Lock-In
In the presence of
positive feedback,
can get lock in
effects
Similar early
conditions result
in divergent
outcomes (instability)
Example: Product largely in balance vs.
continuously in turmoil
Unstable, Critical, and Subject to
Lock-in
Software Quality
Trust
Respect
Morale

Elaborating Causal Loop Diagrams:
Most Basic Feedbacks

With Recovery (& Waning Immunity)

With Risk Perception-Driven
Behavioral Change

Public Health System
Screening & Treatment Responses

and Vaccination As Well

Blowback: Perverse Evolutionary
& Behavioural Feedbacks

Incorporating Some Determinants of Health

Structure as Shaping Behaviour
System structure is defined by
Stocks
Flows
Connections between them (yielding feedbacks)
Nonlinearity: The behaviour of the whole is
more than the sum of the behaviour of the
parts
Emergent behaviour would not be anticipated
from simple behaviour of each piece in turn
Stock and flow structure (including feedbacks)
of a system determines the qualitative
behaviour modes that the system can take on
(parameters determine particulars)
Changes to the feedback structure can change
behaviour in fundamental ways


Causal Loop Structure: Dynamic Implications
Each loop in a causal loop diagram is
associated with qualitative dynamic
behavior
Most Common Single-Loop Modes of
Dynamic Behavior
Exponential growth
Goal Seeking Adjustment
Oscillation
When composed, get novel behaviors due to
shifting loop dominance
Behaviour of system more than sum of parts
e.g. Growth & Plateau, Boom & Bust, Lock-in

Causal Loop Dynamics: Exponential Growth
(First Order Reinforcing Loop)
Examples



Dynamic implications



# of Infectives
# New Infections
+
+
# of Susceptibles
-
+
Weight Perceived
as Normal
Individual Target
Weight
Mean Weight in
Population
+
+
+
Causal Loop Dynamics: Goal Seeking
(Balancing Loop)
Example:


Dynamic behavior




Hunger
Food Ingested
+
-
Treshold for Policy
Dissatisfaction to Lead to
Action
Threshold Hunger to
Motivate Eating
Causal Loop Dynamics: Oscillation
(Balancing Loop with Delay)
Causal Structure




Dynamic Behavior:
Growth and Plateau
Loop structure:
Reinforcing Loop
Balancing Loop

Dynamic Behavior:



Word of
Mouth Sales
Customers
+
+
+
Potential
Customers
-
+
-
Graph for Customer
100,000
75,000
50,000
25,000
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Time ( Month)
Customer : Cur rent
Existing Users
Likelihood of Cross Listing
and Listing on Search
Engines
+
New Users
Discovering Site
+
Internet Users Yet to
Discover Site
-
+
From Tsai
State of the System: Stocks
(Levels, State Variables,
Compartments)
Stocks (Levels) represent accumulations
These capture the state of the system
These can be measured at one instant in time
Stocks start with some initial value & are
thereafter changed only by flows into & out of
them
There are no inputs that immediately change stocks
Stocks are the source of delay in a system
In a stock & flow diagram, shown as rectangles
Example Model: Stocks

The Critical Role of Stocks in Dynamics
Stocks determine current state of
system
Stocks often provide the basis for
making choices
Stocks central to most disequilibria
phenomena (buildup, decay)
Lead to inertia
Give rise to delays

State Changes: Flows (Fluxes, Rates, Derivatives)
All changes to stocks occur via flows
Always expressed per some unit time: If
these flow into/out of a stock that keeps
track of things of type X (e.g. persons), the
rates are measured in X/(Time Unit) (e.g.
persons/year, $/month, gallons/second)
Typically measure over certain period of
time (by considering accumulated quantity
over a period of time)
e.g. Incidence Rates is calculated by
accumulating people over a year, revenue is
$/Time, water flow is litres/minute
Can be estimated for any point in time

Example Model: Flows

Key Component: Stock & Flow
Stock
Flow
+
Stock
Flow
Stocks
Determine
Flows
Flows
Dictate
Change in
Stocks

Auxiliary Variables
Auxiliary variables are convenience names we
give to concepts that can be defined in terms
of expressions involving stocks/flows at
current time
Adding or eliminating an auxiliary variable does not
change the mathematical structure of the system
Critical for model transparency
Can be reused at many places
References to auxiliary variables prevents need for
modeler to think about all of details of definition
Enhanced modifiability: Single place to define
Convenient for reporting (graphing, tables) &
analyzing model dynamics

Example Model: Auxiliary
Variables

Constants & Time Series Parameters
For similar reasons to auxiliary
variables, we give names to
Model constants
Time series


Example Model: Parameters


Example System Structure, Illustrating Feedbacks
Handling Heterogeneity
Step 1: Test (via scenarios) if heterogeneity is
likely to have substantive impact on results
Step 2: Where necessary, disaggregate
model according to heterogeneity
Small model: Duplicate stocks
Larger model: Subscripting
Step 3: Express inter-group contact patterns
via mixing & preference matrices


Susceptible (X-16fb) Infected (Y-16fb) Undetected CIN1 (CIN1-16fb) Detected CIN1 (DCIN1-16fb) Treated and Infected CIN1 (ICIN1-16fb)
Undetected CIN2 (CIN2-16fb)
Undetected CIN3 (CIN3-16fb)
Detected CIN2 (DCIN2-16fb)
Detected CIN3 (DCIN3-16fb)
Treated and Infected CIN2 (ICIN2-16fb)
Immune (Z-16fb)
Treated and Infected CIN3 (ICIN3-16fb)
Treated and Cured TCINs (TCINs-16fb)
Undetected Carcinoma s1 (CIS1-16fb)
Detected Carcinoma s1 (DCIS1-16fb) Treated and Infected Carcinoma s1 (ICIS1-16fb)
Detected Carcinoma s2 (DCIS2-16fb) Treated and Infected Carcinoma s2 (ICIS2-16fb)
Undetected Carcinoma s2 (CIS2-16fb)
Treated and Cured TCISs (TCISs-16fb)
Undetected Local (CCL-16fb)
Incidence
Per Contact Risk of Infection (beta-f)
Total Infectives (f) by Age SmokingStatus Sexual Activity Group and Screening Category
Immune (Z-16m)
Mean duration of acute HPV infection females
Progression fromInfected to Undetected CIN1
Undetected CIN1 Rate (theta-16fbs1)
Progression fromUndetected CIN1 to Detected CIN1
Detected CIN1 Rate (kappa-16fbis1)
Progression from Detected CIN1 to Treated &Infected CIN1
Cure Rate of CIN1 (cap-gamma-s1)
% CIN1 infected after treament (psi-s1)
Progression from Detected CIN1 to Treated &Cured TCINs
Female Mortality Rate
<Cure Rate of CIN1 (cap-gamma-s1)>
<% CIN1 infected after treament (psi-s1)>
Progression fromInfected to Undetected CIN3
Undetected CIN3 Rate (theta-16fbs3)
Undetected CIN2 Rate (theta-16fbs2)
Progression from Undetected CIN1 to Undetected CIN2
Undetected CIN1 Rate (pi-16fbs1)
Progression from Undetected CIN2 to Undetected CIN3 Undetected CIN2 Rate (pi-16fbs2)
Undetected CIN3 Rate (pi-16fbs3)
Progression from Undetected CIN3 to Undetected Carcinoma s1
Progression from Detected CIN1 to Undetected CIN2
Progression from Undetected CIN2 to Detected CIN2
Detected CIN2 Rate (kappa-16fbis2)
Detected CIN3 Rate (kappa-16fbis3)
Progression fromDetected CIN2 to Treated &Infected CIN2
Cure Rate of CIN2 (cap-gamma s2)
% CIN2 infected after treatment (psi-s2)
Recurrence of CIN2 (theta- rs2)
Recurrence of CIN1 (theta-rs1)
<Cure Rate of CIN2 (cap-gamma s2)>
<% CIN2 infected after treatment (psi-s2)>
Cure Rate of CIN3 (cap-gamma s3)
% CIN3 infected after treatment (psi-s3)
Regression from Treated &Infected CIN3 to Undetected CIN3
Reoccurence of CIN3 (theta-rs3)
Detected CIS1 Rate (kappa-16fbis4)
% CIS s1 infected after treatment (psi-s4)
Cure Rate of CIS s1 (cap-gamma s4)
Undetected CIS1 Rate (pi-16fs4)
Reoccurence of CIS1 (theta-rs4)
Reoccurence of CIS2 (theta-rs5)
Detected CIS2 Rate (kappa-16fbis5)
% CIS s2 infected after treatment (psi-s5) Cure Rate of CIS s2 (cap-gamma s5)
<Female Mortality Rate>
<Female Mortality Rate>
<Female Mortality Rate>
<Female Mortality Rate>
<Female Mortality Rate>
<Female Mortality Rate>
<Female Mortality Rate>
<Female Mortality Rate>
<Female Mortality Rate>
<Female Mortality Rate>
Male Population
Female Population
Female Total Deaths
Detected Local (DCCL-16fb)
Regression CIN1 to Infected Rate (tau-16fbs1)
Regression CIN2 to Infected Rate (tau-16fbs2)
Regression CIN3 to Infected Rate (tau-16fbs3)
Regression CIN2 to CIN1 Rate (tau-16fbs21)
Regression CIN3 to CIN1 Rate (tau-16fbs31)
Regression CIN3 to CIN2 Rate (tau-16fbs32)
Regression from Undetected CIN2 to Undetected CIN1
Regression from Undetected CIN3 to Undetected CIN2
Regression from Undetected CIN2 to Infected
Regression from Undetected CIN3 to Undetected CIN1
Regression fromTreated &Infected CIN1 to Undetected CIN1
Recovered fromDetected CIN1
Recovered fromTreated &Infected CIN1
Recovered fromUndetected CIN1
Regression fromTreated &Infected CIN2 to Undetected CIN2
Progression from Detected CIN2 to Treated &Cured TCINs
Recovered fromUndetected CIN2
Recovered fromDetected CIN2
Recovered fromTreated &Infected CIN2
Recovered from Undetected CIN3
Progression fromUndetected CIN3 to Detected CIN3
Progression from Detected CIN3 to Treated &Infected CIN3
Progression fromDetected CIN3 to Treated &Cured TCINs
Progression from Undetected Carcinoma s1 to Detected Carcinoma s1
Progression fromUndetected Carcinoma s1 to Undetected Carcinoma s2
Progression fromDetected Carcinoma s1 to Treated & Infected Carcinoma s1
Recovered fromDetected CIN3
Recovered from Treated &Infected CIN3
Regression fromTreated &Infected Carcinoma s1 to Undetected Carcinoma s1
Progression from Detected Carcinoma s1 to Treated &Cured TCISs
Progression from Undetected Carcinoma s2 to Detected Carcinoma s2
Progression fromDetected Carcinoma s2 to Treated & Infected Carcinoma s2
Progression from Detected Carcinoma s2 to Treated &Cured TCISs
Progression fromDetected Carcinoma s1 to Undetected Carcinoma s2
Regression fromTreated &Infected Carcinoma s2 to Undetected Carcinoma s2
Recovered fromTreated &Infected Carcinoma s1
Recovered fromTreated &Infected Carcinoma s2
Undetected Regional (CCR-16fb)
Cancer Death
Undetected Distant (CCD-16fb)
Detected Regional (DCCR-16fb)
Cancer Survivors (SCC) Detected Distant (DCCD-16fb)
Progression from Undetected Local to Undetected Regional
Progression from Undetected Regional to Undetected Distant
Progression from Undetected Local to Detected Local
Progession from Detected Local to Cancer Death
Progression from Detected Local to Cancer Survivors Progression from Detected Distant to Cancer Survivors
Progression from Detected Distant to Cancer Death
Progression from Detected Regional to Cancer Death
Progression from Undetected Regional to Detected Regional
Progression from Undetected Local to Cancer Death
Progression from Undetected Distant to Cancer Death
Progression from Undetected Regional to Cancer Death
Progression from Detected Regional to Cancer Survivors
Progression from Undetected Carcinoma s2 to Undetected Local
Progression fromDetected Carcinoma s2 to Undetected Local
Regression fromUndetected CIN1 to Infected
Progression fromInfected to Undetected CIN2
Regression from Undetected CIN3 to Infected
Progression fromDetected CIN3 to Undetected Carcinoma s1
<Cure Rate of CIS s2 (cap-gamma s5)> <% CIS s2 infected after treatment (psi-s5)>
Undetected Local to Undetected Regional Rate (pi-L)
Undetected Local to Detected Local Rate (upsilon-L)
DCCdeath rate (chi-D)
LCCdeath rate (chi-L)
Undetected Regional to Undetected Distant Rate (pi-R)
RCCdeath rate (chi-R)
Detected Regional Cancer Survivors Rate (omega-R)
Detected Local Cancer Survivor Rate (omega-L)
Detected Distant Cancer Survivor Rate (omega-D)
Undetected Regional to Detected Regional Rate (upsilon-R)
Undetected Distant to Detected Distant Rate (upsilon-D)
Progression from Undetected Distant to Detected Distant
muX-fb death
muY-fb death
mu-CIN1 death
mu-DCIN1 death
mu-ICIN1 death
mu-ICIN2 death
mu-DCIN2 death
mu-CIN2 death
mu-CIN3 death
mu-TCINs death
mu-DCIN3 death <Female Mortality Rate>
mu-CIS1 death
<Female Mortality Rate>
mu-ICIN3 death <Female Mortality Rate>
mu-ICIS1 death
mu-DCIS1 death
mu-TCISs death <Female Mortality Rate>
<Female Mortality Rate>
mu-CIS2 death
mu-DCIS2 death
mu-ICIS2 death
<Female Mortality Rate>
<Female Mortality Rate>
<Female Mortality Rate>
mu-CCL death
mu-CCR death
mu-DCCL death
mu-DCCR death
mu-SCC death mu-DCCD death
<Female Mortality Rate>
<Female Mortality Rate>
<Female Mortality Rate>
<Female Mortality Rate>
<Female Mortality Rate>
<Female Mortality Rate>
<DCCdeath rate (chi-D)>
Undetected CIS2 Rate (pi-16fbs5)
<RCCdeath rate (chi-R)>
<LCCdeath rate (chi-L)>
<Infected (Y-16fb)>
Progression from Immune to Susceptible (f)
Rate of waning natural immunity (sigma-zf)
<mu-CCL death>
<mu-CCR death>
<mu-CIN1 death> <mu-CIN2 death> <mu-CIN3 death> <mu-CIS1 death>
<mu-CIS2 death>
<mu-DCCD death>
<mu-DCCL death> <mu-DCCR death>
<mu-DCIN1 death>
<mu-DCIN2 death>
<mu-DCIN3 death>
<mu-DCIS1 death>
<mu-DCIS2 death>
<mu-ICIN1 death> <mu-ICIN2 death>
<mu-ICIN3 death>
<mu-ICIS1 death>
<mu-ICIS2 death>
<mu-SCC death>
<mu-TCINs death>
<mu-TCISs death>
<muX-fb death>
<muY-fb death>
<Female Total Deaths>
Regression from Detected CIN3 to Infected
Regression from Detected CIN2 to Infected
<Regression CIN2 to Infected Rate (tau-16fbs2)>
Regression from Detected CIN1 to Infected
<Regression CIN1 to Infected Rate (tau-16fbs1)>
Regression from Detected CIN3 to Detected CIN2 <Regression CIN3 to CIN2 Rate (tau-16fbs32)>
Regression from Detected CIN3 to Detected CIN1
<Regression CIN3 to CIN1 Rate (tau-16fbs31)>
Regression from Detected CIN2 to Detected CIN1
<Regression CIN2 to CIN1 Rate (tau-16fbs21)>
<Cancer Survivors (SCC)>
<Detected Carcinoma s1 (DCIS1-16fb)>
<Detected Carcinoma s2 (DCIS2-16fb)>
<Detected CIN1 (DCIN1-16fb)>
<Detected CIN2 (DCIN2-16fb)>
<Detected CIN3 (DCIN3-16fb)>
<Detected Distant (DCCD-16fb)>
<Detected Local (DCCL-16fb)>
<Detected Regional (DCCR-16fb)>
<Treated and Cured TCINs (TCINs-16fb)> <Treated and Cured TCISs (TCISs-16fb)>
<Treated and Infected Carcinoma s1 (ICIS1-16fb)>
<Treated and Infected Carcinoma s2 (ICIS2-16fb)>
<Treated and Infected CIN1 (ICIN1-16fb)>
<Treated and Infected CIN2 (ICIN2-16fb)>
<Treated and Infected CIN3 (ICIN3-16fb)>
<Undetected Carcinoma s1 (CIS1-16fb)>
<Undetected Carcinoma s2 (CIS2-16fb)>
<Undetected CIN1 (CIN1-16fb)>
<Undetected CIN2 (CIN2-16fb)>
<Undetected CIN3 (CIN3-16fb)>
<Undetected Distant (CCD-16fb)>
<Undetected Local (CCL-16fb)>
<Undetected Regional (CCR-16fb)>
<Total Infectives (f) by Age SmokingStatus Sexual Activity Group and Screening Category>
Fractional Prevalence Females
Susceptible (X-16m)
Infected (Y-16m)
Incidence (m)
Per Contact Risk of Infection (beta-m)
Recovery (m)
Male Mortality Rate
<Male Mortality Rate>
muX-m death muY-mdeath
Fractional Prevalence Males
muZ-m death
<muX-mdeath>
<muY-mdeath>
<muZ-mdeath>
Male Total Deaths
Mean duration of acute HPVinfection in males
Rate of Recovery from infection wtih HPV (gamma-16f)
Progression from Immune to Susceptible (m)
Rate of waning natural immunity (sigma-zm)
muZ-fb death
<Female Mortality Rate>
Fraction of CINs regressions clearing CIN that also clear infection (gamma bar-16f)
<Regression CIN1 to Infected Rate (tau-16fbs1)>
<Fraction of CINs regressions clearing CINthat also clear infection (gamma bar-16f)>
<Regression CIN2 to Infected Rate (tau-16fbs2)>
<Rate of Recovery from infection wtih HPV (gamma-16f)>
<Fraction of CINs regressions clearing CINthat also clear infection (gamma bar-16f)>
<Regression CIN3 to Infected Rate (tau-16fbs3)>
<Rate of Recovery from infection wtih HPV (gamma-16f)>
<Rate of Recovery from infection wtih HPV (gamma-16f)>
<Female Mortality Rate>
mu-CCDdeath
<mu-CCD death>
Mean Duration of Sexual Activity
<Mean Duration of Sexual Activity>
<Fractional Prevalence Males>
<Infected (Y-16fb)>
Recovery (f)
Cumulative number of female with infections
Cumulative female infective years
Vaccination females
Annual likelihood of vaccination for females
Fraction of female population vaccinated
Initial fraction of females vaccinated
newfemale infections <Susceptible (X-16fb)>
<Force of Infection (lambda-16fb)>
Total population of females by SmokingStatus SexualActivityGroup AgeCategory CervicalScreeningCategory
<Cancer Survivors (SCC)>
<Detected Carcinoma s1 (DCIS1-16fb)>
<Detected Carcinoma s2 (DCIS2-16fb)>
<Detected CIN1 (DCIN1-16fb)>
<Detected CIN2 (DCIN2-16fb)>
<Detected CIN3 (DCIN3-16fb)>
<Detected Distant (DCCD-16fb)>
<Detected Local (DCCL-16fb)>
<Detected Regional (DCCR-16fb)>
<Infected (Y-16fb)>
<Susceptible (X-16fb)>
<Treated and Cured TCINs (TCINs-16fb)>
<Treated and Cured TCISs (TCISs-16fb)>
<Treated and Infected Carcinoma s1 (ICIS1-16fb)> <Treated and Infected Carcinoma s2 (ICIS2-16fb)>
<Immune (Z-16fb)>
<Treated and Infected CIN1 (ICIN1-16fb)>
<Treated and Infected CIN2 (ICIN2-16fb)>
<Treated and Infected CIN3 (ICIN3-16fb)>
<Undetected Carcinoma s1 (CIS1-16fb)>
<Undetected Carcinoma s2 (CIS2-16fb)>
<Undetected CIN1 (CIN1-16fb)>
<Undetected CIN2 (CIN2-16fb)>
<Undetected CIN3 (CIN3-16fb)>
<Undetected Distant (CCD-16fb)> <Undetected Local (CCL-16fb)>
<Undetected Regional (CCR-16fb)>
<Total population of females by SmokingStatus SexualActivityGroup AgeCategory CervicalScreeningCategory>
<Total population of females by SmokingStatus SexualActivityGroup AgeCategory CervicalScreeningCategory>
Vaccinated (V-16fb)
muV-fb death
<muV-fb death>
<Female Mortality Rate>
<Vaccinated (V-16fb)>
Vaccination males
Annual likelihood of vaccination for males
Fraction of male population vaccinated
Initial fraction of males vaccinated
Vaccinated (V-16m)
muV-mdeath
Total population of males by AgeCategory SmokingStatus SexualActivityGroup
<Immune (Z-16m)>
<Susceptible (X-16m)>
<Infected (Y-16m)>
<Male Mortality Rate>
<Vaccinated (V-16m)>
<Total population of males by AgeCategory SmokingStatus SexualActivityGroup>
<Total population of males by AgeCategory SmokingStatus SexualActivityGroup>
infective years females <Infected (Y-16fb)>
Cumulative number of males with infections
Cumulative male infective years
newmale infections
infective years males
<Susceptible (X-16m)>
<Force of Infection (lambda-16m)>
<Infected (Y-16m)>
<muV-mdeath>
waning vaccination (f)
<muZ-fb death>
Rate of waning from vaccine protection (sigma-vf)
waning vaccination (m)
Rate of waning from vaccine protection (sigma-vm)
Initial Infected
Aging of vaccinated males ()
Aging of suceptible males () Aging of infected males () Aging of immune males()
Aging of vaccinated females ()
Aging of susceptible females () Aging of infected females ()
Aging of undetected CIN1 ()
Aging of detected CIN1 ()
Aging of treated and infected CIN1
Aging of immune females () Aging of undetected CIN3 ()
Aging of undetected CIN2 ()
Aging of detected CIN2 ()
Aging of treated and infected CIN2 ()
Aging of undetected carcinoma s1 ()
Aging of detected CIN3 ()
Aging of treated and cured TCINs ()
<Undetected CIS1 Rate (pi-16fs4)>
Aging of detected carinoma s1 ()
<Fraction of CINs regressions clearing CINthat also clear infection (gamma bar-16f)>
Aging of treated and infected carcinoma s1()
Aging of treated and cured TCISs ()
Aging of undetected carinoma s2 ()
Aging of treated and infected CIN3 ()
Aging of detected carcinoma s2 () Aging of treated and infected carcinoma s2 ()
Aging of undetected local ()
Aging of undetected regional () Aging of undetected distant ()
Aging of detected local ()
Aging of detected regional ()
Aging of detected distant ()
Aging of cancer survivors()
Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females> <Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Females>
Sexual Partner Change Rate c sub keli
Mixing Matrix Elements rho
Age Category Mixing Parameter Epsilon 1
Age Category Identity Matrixsmall delta ij
Fraction of Total Initial Partnership Changes for Activity Group
Total Initial Partnership Changes for Sex
Total Initial Partnership Changes for Sexand Activity Group
Total Initial Partnership Changes for Sexand Activity Group and Age Category
Fraction of Total Initial Partnership Changes for Sex Occuring with People in a Given Age Category
Capital B Adjusted Sexual Partner Change Rate ckeflmij
<Sexual Partner Change Rate c sub keli>
Theta
Fraction of Contacts by someone of Age Category and Sexto assume that take place with people of each Age Category
Fraction of Contacts by someone of a specific Sexual Activity Group and Sexto assume that take place with people of each Sexual Activity Group
Age Category Mixing Parameter Epsilon 2
Activity Category Identity Matrixsmall delta lm
<Total Initial Partnership Changes for Sexand Age Category>
<Fraction of Total Initial Partnership Changes for SexOccuring with People in a Given Sexual Activity Group>
<Force of Infection (lambda-16fb)>
Force of Infection (lambda-16fb)
<Force of Infection (lambda-16m)>
Force of Infection (lambda-16m)
<Per Contact Risk of Infection (beta-f)> <Per Contact Risk of Infection (beta-m)>
Transmission Probability Beta
SmokingStatus Mixing Parameter Epsilon 3 (Level of Non-assortivity in mixing)
SmokingStatus Identity Matrixsmall delta ef
Fraction of Contacts by someone of a specific SmokingStatus and Sexto assume that take place with people of each SmokingStatus <Fraction of Total Initial Partnership Changes for SexOccuring with People in a Given Sexual Activity Group>
<Total population of females by SmokingStatus SexualActivityGroup AgeCategory CervicalScreeningCategory>
<Total population of males by AgeCategory SmokingStatus SexualActivityGroup>
Total Population by Sex SmokingStatus Age and Sexual Activity Group
Total population of females by SmokingStatus Age and Sexual Activity Group
Total Initial Partnership Changes for Sexand SmokingStatus and Activity Group and Age Category
Total Initial Partnership Changes for Sexand SmokingStatus and Activity Group
Total Initial Partnership Changes for Sexand SmokingStatus
Fraction of Total Initial Partnership Changes for SexOccuring with People in a Given Sexual Activity Group
Fraction of Total Initial Partnership Changes for SexOccuring with People in a Given SmokingStatus Group
Contacts with Infectives between People of Potentially Different SmokingStatus Sexual Activity Groups and Ages
Fractional Prevalence by Sex SmokingStatus Sexual Activity Group and Age
Fractional Prevalence Females Across All Screening Groups
Total Infectives (f) by SmokingStatus Sexual Activity Group Age
Contacts with Infectives between People of Potentially Different SmokingStatus and Ages
Contacts with Infectives between People of Potentially Different SmokingStatus
Contacts with Infectives for Person of Given Sex SmokingStatus Sexual Activity Group and Age
Force of Infection for Person of Given SexSmokingStatus Sexual Activity Group and Age
Mean partner acquisition rate for age category (c j bar)
Relative Partner Acquisition Rate for Age Category (pa i) Relative Partner Acquisition Rate for Sexual Activity Category (pc i)
Relative Partner Acquisition Rate for SmokingStatus
Initial Total Population by SexSmokingStatus Age and Sexual Activity Group
Initial Total Population by SexSmokingStatus and Age
Initial Total Population Weighted by pc and pa by SexSmokingStatus and Age
Sexual Partner Change Rate c sub keli for Ages 18 through 59
Sexual Partner Change Rate c sub keli for Single-Age Group Categories
Is Age Category among Ages 18 through 59
<Male Mortality Rate> <Male Mortality Rate>
<Regression CIN3 to Infected Rate (tau-16fbs3)>
<Fraction of CINs regressions clearing CINthat also clear infection (gamma bar-16f)>
Total population of males by SmokingStatus SexualActivityGroup
Total population of males by SmokingStatus
Total population of males Total population of females by SmokingStatus SexualActivityGroup
Total population of females by SmokingStatus
Total population of females
Total population of females by SmokingStatus SexualActivityGroup AgeCategory
Routine Screening coverage by Age and Cervical Screening Category (cover i)
Liquid-based cytology sensitivity (papsn s) for CIN1
Liquid-based cytology sensitivity (papsn s) for CIN2 CIN3 CIS1 CIS2
<Detected CIN1 Rate (kappa-16fbis1)>
<Detected CIN2 Rate (kappa-16fbis2)>
<Detected CIN3 Rate (kappa-16fbis3)>
<Detected CIS1 Rate (kappa-16fbis4)>
<Detected CIS1 Rate (kappa-16fbis4)>
<Detected CIS2 Rate (kappa-16fbis5)>
Fraction of Females entering cervical screening category (tadpole b)
Fraction of Females never undergoing cervical screening category (tadpole b)
Initial population females (N-f) by AgeCategory SmokingStatus SexualActivityGroup
Initial Population by Sex SmokingStatus AgeCategory
Fraction of Population in Sexual Activity Category
Initial Population by Sex SmokingStatus SexualActivityCategory and AgeCategory
Initial population females (N-f) by AgeCategory SmokingStatus SexualActivityGroup CervicalScreeningCategory
Initial population of males (N-m)
Male Children 10 to 11
Female Children 10 to 11
Male newEntrants into Sexually Active Population (cap beta-m)
Years in Years 10 to 11
Female new Entrants flow
Male Children 5 to 9 Male Children 0 to 4
Male Births
Male Aging to Age 5 Male Aging to Age 10
Years in Years 0 to 4 Years in Years 5 to 9
Initial Children 0 to 4 by Sex Initial Children 5 to 9 by Sex Initial Children 10 to 11 by Sex
Female Children 5 to 9 Female Children 0 to 4
Female Births Female Aging to Age 5 Female Aging to Age 10
Total Population of females by SmokingStatus AgeCategory
Fertility Rate per 1000 for SmokingStatus Age Category
Fertility Rate per Capita for SmokingStatus Age Category
Babies Born to Mother in SmokingStatus and AgeCategory Babies Born Babies Born by Sex
<Babies Born by Sex>
<Babies Born by Sex>
Total population by SmokingStatus
<Total population of females by SmokingStatus>
Population Growth Rate q
YearsInAgeCategory (band i)
Mean Time Until Age Progression by Sex SmokingStatus AgeCategory <Female Mortality Rate>
<Male Mortality Rate>
Mortality Rate by SexAge SmokingStatus
<Population Growth Rate q>
Mean Time Until Age Progression for Males
Deaths of Male Children 0 to 4 Deaths of Male Children 5 to 9 Deaths of Male Children 10 to 11
Mortality Rates for Children 0 to 4 by Sex Mortality Rates for Children 5 to 9 by Sex
Mortality Rates for Children 10 to 11 by Sex
<Mortality Rates for Children 0 to 4 by Sex>
<Mortality Rates for Children 5 to 9 by Sex>
<Mortality Rates for Children 10 to 11 by Sex>
Deaths of Female Children 0 to 4 Deaths of Female Children 5 to 9 Deaths of Female Children 10 to 11
Total Infectives (f) by SmokingStatus Sexual Activity Group
Total Infectives (f) by SmokingStatus
Total Infectives (f)
Fractional Prevalence Among Females
Fractional Prevalence Among Females by SmokingStatus
<Years in Years 0 to 4> <Years in Years 5 to 9>
<Years in Years 10 to 11>
<Fraction of Females entering cervical screening category (tadpole b)>
<Fraction of Population in Sexual Activity Category>
<Fraction of Population in Sexual Activity Category>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Males>
<Mean Time Until Age Progression for Males> <Mean Time Until Age Progression for Males>
Fraction of Initial Population that Starts Infective
Cancer Death by SmokingStatus and CervicalScreeningCategory
Cancer Death by CervicalScreeningCategory
Cancer Death Total over Population
Total Population of females by AgeCategory
Total Infectives (f) by SmokingStatus Age
Total Infectives (f) by Age
<Total Infectives (f) by Age>
<Total Infectives (f) by Age>
Fractional Prevalence of Infection in Females by Age
Cancer Death by SmokingStatus
<YearsInAgeCategory (band i)>
<Fraction of Babies who are of a given sex>
<Cancer Death by AgeCategory SmokingStatus and CervicalScreeningCategory>
<Total population of females>
<Total population of males> Total population
Fraction of children that initiate smoking by 12 years old by Sex
Total Female new Entrants per Year
<Fraction of children that initiate smoking by 12 years old by Sex>
Total Male new entrants per year
Cu
Mixing
Matrix
Female
Population
Male
Population
Totals
Cumulative
Counts
Stratified by:
17 age categories
2 cervical screen. groups
3 sexual activity groups
2 smoking statuses
2 sexes
Each visual stock represents
408 distinct underlying stocks
A Subscripted
Model
Example Mixing Preferences
Sources for Parameter Estimates
Surveillance data
Controlled trials
Outbreak data
Clinical reports data
Intervention
outcomes studies
Calibration to
historic data
Expert judgement
Systematic reviews


Anderson & May
Introduction of Parameter Estimates

Non Obese
General
Population
Undx Prediabetic
Popn
Obese General
Population
Becoming Obese
Dx Prediabetic Popn
Developing
Diabetes
Being Born Non
Obese Being Born At
Risk
Annual Likelihood of
Becoming Obese
Annual Likelihood of
Becoming Diabetic
Diagnosis of
prediabetics
undx uncomplicated
dying other causes
dx uncomplicated
dying otehr causes
Annualized Probability
Density of prediabetic
recongnition
Non-Obese
Mortality
Annual Mortality Rate for
non obese population
Annualized Mortality
Rate for obese
population
<Annual Not at
Risk Births>
Annual Likelihood of
Non-Diabetes Mortality for
Asymptomatic Population
<Annual at Risk
Births>
Obese Mortality
Dx Prediabetics
Recovering
Undx Prediabetics
Recovering
Annual Likelihood of
Undx Prediabetic
Recovery
Annual Likelihood of Dx
Prediabetic Recovery
<Annual Likelihood of
Non-Diabetes Mortality for
Asymptomatic Population>
Frequently System Dynamics models will provide much more detail on networks of
factors shaping these rates, but ultimately there will be constants requiring specification
Scenarios for Understanding
How Does X affect System

Single Model Matches Many Data Sources

one of
Example Aggregate Model Structure

Infective
Average Duration of
Infectiousness
Recovered
Recovery
Susceptible
Incidence
Contacts per
Susceptible
Fractional
Prevalence
Population Size
Per Contact Risk of
Infection
Immigration
Immigration Rate
Mathematical Notation

Absolute
Prevalence
Mean Time with
Disease
Recovered
Recovery
Susceptible
Incidence
Contacts per
Susceptible
Fractional
Prevalence
Population Size
Per Contact Risk of
Infection
Immigration of
Susceptibles
Immigration Rate
M
c
|

S
I R
N
I
S M c S
N
I I
I c S
N
I
R
|
|

| |
=
|
\ .
| |
=
|
\ .
=
Underlying
(Ordinary)
Differential
Equations
Model Mathematical Analysis

System Linearization (Jacobian)
Fixed-Point Criteria
Eigenvalues (e.g. for stability analysis around fixed-point)

0
0
I
S c S R
N
I I
I c S
I
N
h
I
R R
I
h
| o
|
t
o
t
| |
= + =
|
\ .
| |
= =
|
\ .
+
= =
+
State space diagram (reasoning about
many scenarios at once)
Some Uses of Formal Approaches
Explaining observed behavior patterns
Identifying possible behavior modes over a
wide variety of possible scenarios (e.g. via
eigenspace & phase plane analysis)
Identifying how behavior depends on
parameters (stability, location of equilibria)
Creating self-correcting models (via
control theory)
Formal calibration methods

Feedbacks Driving Infectious Disease
Dynamics

Susceptibles
New Infections
Contacts between
Susceptibles and
Infectives
Infectives
+
+
+
-
+
New Recoveries
+
-
Example Dynamics of SIR Model (No Births or
Deaths)
SIR Example
2,000 people
600 people
10,000 people
1,500 people
450 people
9,500 people
1,000 people
300 people
9,000 people
500 people
150 people
8,500 people
0 people
0 people
8,000 people
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
Time (days)
Susceptible Population S : SIR example people
Infectious Population I : SIR example people
Recovered Population R : SIR example people
Shifting Feedback Dominance
SIR Example
2,000 people
600 people
10,000 people
1,500 people
450 people
9,500 people
1,000 people
300 people
9,000 people
500 people
150 people
8,500 people
0 people
0 people
8,000 people
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
Time (days)
Susceptible Population S : SIR example people
Infectious Population I : SIR example people
Recovered Population R : SIR example people
Susceptibles
New Infections
Contacts between
Susceptibles and
Infectives
Infectives
+
+
+
-
+
New Recoveries
+
-
Susceptibles
New Infections
Contacts between
Susceptibles and
Infectives
Infectives
+
+
+
-
+
New Recoveries
+
-
Susceptibles
NewInfections
Contacts between
Susceptibles and
Infectives
Infectives
+
+
+
-
+
NewRecoveries
+
-
Dynamic Uncertainty:
Stochastic Processes
(Stochastic Differential Equations)

Baseline
50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95% 98% 100%
Average Variable Cost per Cubic Meter
0.6
0.45
0.3
0.15
0
0 1457 2914 4371 5828
Time (Day)
Stakeholder Engagement with
Created Models
Team Meetings
Mabry, 2009, Simulating the Dynamics of Cardiovascular
Health and Related Risk Factors
Varied Applications of
System Dynamics
Aggregate population-level models
Stratified models
Models of an individual
Models of interactions of two or more
individuals
Stochastic models

Key Take-Home Messages on SD
Focuses on feedbacks as the fundamental
shapers of dynamics
Models are consciously specific to purpose
Includes both qualitative & quantitative
components
Offers strong stakeholder focus
Group model building
Stakeholder learning laboratories
Can be applied at diverse levels of
granularity
Models admit to formal reasoning & analysis





Department of Computer Science
System Science Methodologies: Highly
Complementary
No one system science methodology offers
a replacement for the others
Significant synergies can be secured by
using combinations of methodologies to
address the same problem
As cross-checks on understanding where two
or more can be applied
Exploiting competitive advantages


Multi-Framework Modeling
We have found the use of multiple
frameworks most effective
Co-evolving multiple models for
Cross-validation
Asking different sorts of questions
Within a single model (cf Multi-scale modelling)
Critical that dynamic models leverage with
non-dynamic modeling tools
Decision trees
Game theory
Biostatistical analyses


Multiple Modeling Types

System
Dynamics
Agent-
Based
Modeling
Social
Network
Analysis
Deriving calibrated parameter estimates for low-level model
Focusing AB exploration
Inspiring key initial structure of agent-based models
Diagramming out high-level drivers of behaviour
Description of continuous individual-level evolution
Network Embedded Individuals

Uninfected
Cells
Infected
Cells
Virus Load
Uninfected Cell
Replentishment
New Cell
Infections
Uninfected Cell
death
Infected Cell
Death
Virion Production
FromInfected Cells
Virion Clearance
Uninfected Cell
Replentishment Rate
Mean Infected Cell
Lifetime
Mean Uninfected
Cell Lifetime
Mean Virion
Lifetime
Likelihood Density of
Infection by Single Virion
Per Infected CellVirion
Production Rate
Virion Production Rate
Per Contact Virions Rate 1 Person
Mean Viral Load
<Population Size>
Mean Uninfected
Cells
Mean Infected
Cells
<Population Size>
<Population Size>
Mean of Viral Load
of Neighbors
CTLs
immune response to
infected cells
CTL turnover
CTL
responsiveness
Mean CTL
lifespan
infected cell death
by CTLs
rate which infected cells
are killed by CTLs
Virion Production Rate if
Non Quantized Infection
Multiple Modeling Types

System
Dynamics
Agent-
Based
Modeling
Social
Network
Analysis
Cross-validating SD aggregation
Giving insight into feedbacks to depict
Evaluating dynamic importance of
stratifying to capture heterogeneities