 
=

\ .
 
=

\ .
=
Underlying
(Ordinary)
Differential
Equations
Model Mathematical Analysis
System Linearization (Jacobian)
FixedPoint Criteria
Eigenvalues (e.g. for stability analysis around fixedpoint)
0
0
I
S c S R
N
I I
I c S
I
N
h
I
R R
I
h
 o

t
o
t
 
= + =

\ .
 
= =

\ .
+
= =
+
State space diagram (reasoning about
many scenarios at once)
Some Uses of Formal Approaches
Explaining observed behavior patterns
Identifying possible behavior modes over a
wide variety of possible scenarios (e.g. via
eigenspace & phase plane analysis)
Identifying how behavior depends on
parameters (stability, location of equilibria)
Creating selfcorrecting models (via
control theory)
Formal calibration methods
Feedbacks Driving Infectious Disease
Dynamics
Susceptibles
New Infections
Contacts between
Susceptibles and
Infectives
Infectives
+
+
+

+
New Recoveries
+

Example Dynamics of SIR Model (No Births or
Deaths)
SIR Example
2,000 people
600 people
10,000 people
1,500 people
450 people
9,500 people
1,000 people
300 people
9,000 people
500 people
150 people
8,500 people
0 people
0 people
8,000 people
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
Time (days)
Susceptible Population S : SIR example people
Infectious Population I : SIR example people
Recovered Population R : SIR example people
Shifting Feedback Dominance
SIR Example
2,000 people
600 people
10,000 people
1,500 people
450 people
9,500 people
1,000 people
300 people
9,000 people
500 people
150 people
8,500 people
0 people
0 people
8,000 people
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
Time (days)
Susceptible Population S : SIR example people
Infectious Population I : SIR example people
Recovered Population R : SIR example people
Susceptibles
New Infections
Contacts between
Susceptibles and
Infectives
Infectives
+
+
+

+
New Recoveries
+

Susceptibles
New Infections
Contacts between
Susceptibles and
Infectives
Infectives
+
+
+

+
New Recoveries
+

Susceptibles
NewInfections
Contacts between
Susceptibles and
Infectives
Infectives
+
+
+

+
NewRecoveries
+

Dynamic Uncertainty:
Stochastic Processes
(Stochastic Differential Equations)
Baseline
50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95% 98% 100%
Average Variable Cost per Cubic Meter
0.6
0.45
0.3
0.15
0
0 1457 2914 4371 5828
Time (Day)
Stakeholder Engagement with
Created Models
Team Meetings
Mabry, 2009, Simulating the Dynamics of Cardiovascular
Health and Related Risk Factors
Varied Applications of
System Dynamics
Aggregate populationlevel models
Stratified models
Models of an individual
Models of interactions of two or more
individuals
Stochastic models
Key TakeHome Messages on SD
Focuses on feedbacks as the fundamental
shapers of dynamics
Models are consciously specific to purpose
Includes both qualitative & quantitative
components
Offers strong stakeholder focus
Group model building
Stakeholder learning laboratories
Can be applied at diverse levels of
granularity
Models admit to formal reasoning & analysis
Department of Computer Science
System Science Methodologies: Highly
Complementary
No one system science methodology offers
a replacement for the others
Significant synergies can be secured by
using combinations of methodologies to
address the same problem
As crosschecks on understanding where two
or more can be applied
Exploiting competitive advantages
MultiFramework Modeling
We have found the use of multiple
frameworks most effective
Coevolving multiple models for
Crossvalidation
Asking different sorts of questions
Within a single model (cf Multiscale modelling)
Critical that dynamic models leverage with
nondynamic modeling tools
Decision trees
Game theory
Biostatistical analyses
Multiple Modeling Types
System
Dynamics
Agent
Based
Modeling
Social
Network
Analysis
Deriving calibrated parameter estimates for lowlevel model
Focusing AB exploration
Inspiring key initial structure of agentbased models
Diagramming out highlevel drivers of behaviour
Description of continuous individuallevel evolution
Network Embedded Individuals
Uninfected
Cells
Infected
Cells
Virus Load
Uninfected Cell
Replentishment
New Cell
Infections
Uninfected Cell
death
Infected Cell
Death
Virion Production
FromInfected Cells
Virion Clearance
Uninfected Cell
Replentishment Rate
Mean Infected Cell
Lifetime
Mean Uninfected
Cell Lifetime
Mean Virion
Lifetime
Likelihood Density of
Infection by Single Virion
Per Infected CellVirion
Production Rate
Virion Production Rate
Per Contact Virions Rate 1 Person
Mean Viral Load
<Population Size>
Mean Uninfected
Cells
Mean Infected
Cells
<Population Size>
<Population Size>
Mean of Viral Load
of Neighbors
CTLs
immune response to
infected cells
CTL turnover
CTL
responsiveness
Mean CTL
lifespan
infected cell death
by CTLs
rate which infected cells
are killed by CTLs
Virion Production Rate if
Non Quantized Infection
Multiple Modeling Types
System
Dynamics
Agent
Based
Modeling
Social
Network
Analysis
Crossvalidating SD aggregation
Giving insight into feedbacks to depict
Evaluating dynamic importance of
stratifying to capture heterogeneities