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Decision Analysis I
Problem Session 3
Announcements
• Make sure to CC your buddy in any emails to
your TA
• Amount of time spent on homeworks
1
What concepts do we expect you to master?
• Distinctions • Relevance
• Kind, degree • Relevance Diagrams
• Probability • The Rules of Arrow
• Background state of Flipping
information (&)
• Inferential notation • Associative Logic
Errors
• Probabilistic inference
• Tree flipping
Probability tree
representation:
Kinds
Degrees
2
What concepts do we expect you to master?
• Distinctions • Relevance
• Kind, degree • Relevance Diagrams
• Probability • The Rules of Arrow
• Background state of Flipping
information (&)
• Inferential notation • Associative Logic
Errors
• Probabilistic inference
• Tree flipping
3
Probability Notation
• Two remarks:
– We condition A on B when we think about A given
that B happened.
– Always condition probabilities on & (your
background state of information)
4
Probabilistic inference is how we learn
about uncertainties indirectly.
… through
probabilistic … we can come up
inference ... with probabilities we
have not assessed.
Tree-flipping
A2 0.5
A2 B 2 0.05
B2
Σ = 1.00
5
We can then “flip” the tree to infer the
unassessed probabilities.
{B | &} {A | B,&} {BA | &} = {B | &} * {A | B,&}
A1
B1A1 0.36 {A1 B1 | &} = {B1 A1 | &}
0.36
B1 0.41
= 0.88
0.05
0.41 0.41
= 0.12
B1 A2 0.05
A2
&
A1
B2 A1 0.54
0.54
0.59 0.59
= 0.92
B2 0.05
0.59
= 0.08
B2 A2 0.05
A2
Σ = 1.00
Here is an example
of probabilistic inference.
• I have two coins in my pocket; one is normal (N) and the other
is “double-headed” (D).
• I take a coin out of my pocket and flip it – “Heads”!
• What is the probability that I originally chose the double-
headed coin?
“H” N
0.25 = “H”N 0.25 = “H”N
0.5 1/3
N “H”
0.5 0.75
0.5 2/3
0.25 = “T”N 0.50 = “H”D
“T” D
0.5 0.25
0.50 = “H”D 0.25 = “T”N
D “H” “T” N
0 = “T”D
6
Let’s flip this tree as an exercise!
B A
21/50 21/50
7/10 21/23
A B
3/5 3/10 23/50 2/23
9/50 2/50
~B ~A
& &
B A
2/50 9/50
2/5 1/10 27/50 1/3
~A 9/10 ~B 2/3
18/50 18/50
~B ~A
7
What concepts do we expect you to master?
• Distinctions • Relevance
• Kind, degree • Relevance Diagrams
• Probability • The Rules of Arrow
• Background state of Flipping
information (&)
• Inferential notation • Associative Logic
Errors
• Probabilistic inference
• Tree flipping
Introducing Relevance
Probabilistically, A is relevant to B if
{A|B, &} is not equal to {A|B’, &}.
8
Introducing Relevance
B B
2/3 1/10 2/3 3/4
~A 9/10 ~A 1/4
~B ~B
9
How can we recognize relevance using
trees? (3 or more degrees)
B1
A and B are relevant Otherwise, A and B are
given & if ... A1 0.2 B2 irrelevant given &.
0.3 B3
0.5
B1
}
0.2 … for one of the
B2 degrees of A, the
0.3 distribution of B
A2 B3 differs from ...
0.5
B1
}
… the
0.8 B2 distribution of B
for another
A3 0.1
B3 degree of A.
0.1
B2
0.3
} … this one ...
C2
-- OR --
C1
B1 0.3
} … this distribution
differs from...
C2
A2 C1 Otherwise, B and C
B2
0.6
} … this one. are irrelevant given
distinction A and &.
C2
10
But sometimes we first need to flip the tree
to determine whether there is relevance.
Are A and B irrelevant given C and &?
A B C C A B
0.3 … this
Our strategy is to put C
0.5 0.7 differs
and & first in the tree, from ...
11
Introducing Relevance Diagrams
12
Instead of trees,
we can relevance diagrams.
A1 0.714
A B
0.626
0.286
{A | &} {B | A, &}
B2
A1 0.714
0.626
0.286 A B
B2
B1 {AB|&} = {A|&}{B|&}
0.714
0.374
A2 0.286
B2 The absence of an arrow from
A to B asserts irrelevance!
13
Diagrams vs. Trees
C1
B1 0.3
A1 C2
C1 These two A
0.3 numbers are
B2 the same...
C2
-- AND -
C1 - B C
B1 0.3 ...these two
numbers are
C2 the same
A2 C1 A is IRR to C | B, &
0.3
B2 C2
From trees we can make both From diagrams we can only
relevance and irrelevance make statements of
statements. irrelevance!
Relevance is a matter of
information, not logic.
Example
– Assume you have two “fair” dice.
– You believe the result of each die toss is
irrelevant to the other.
Die 1 Die 2
14
Adding or taking away information can
change relevance relationships.
Sum
Die 1 Die 2
made.
15
Irrelevance helps us simplify our
probabilistic thinking.
Bayes’ Rule tells us that:
{ABC|&}={A|&} * {B|A, &} * {C|B, A, &}
B C
B | A, & C | B, &
• Distinctions • Relevance
• Kind, degree • Relevance Diagrams
• Probability • The Rules of Arrow
• Background state of Flipping
information (&)
• Inferential notation • Associative Logic
Errors
• Probabilistic inference
• Tree flipping
16
Just like we can flip trees, we can flip
arrows in relevance diagrams.
{A | &} {B | A, &}
A B
A B
{A | B, &} {B | &}
RULE #1
“Add arrows wherever you want, provided you
don’t create a cycle; A cycle made by more than
3 nodes is also not allowed.”
X X
A B
17
We can only flip arrows according to
certain rules.
RULE #2
“You can flip an arrow between A and B if and
only if A and B are conditioned on the same state
of information.”
C
In other words, any other node
(here, C and D) which points to A ?
also points to B. A B
RULE #3
“You cannot remove any arrows arbitrarily.”
A B
18
Example of diagram manipulation
(arrow-flipping)
C D E
Can we flip the arrow
Q
between A and B?
A B
C D E
A
We need to add arrows
from C to B and E to A.
A B
A
Now, A and B are conditioned on the same state of
information, so we can now flip the arrow.
19
Why would we want to
manipulate diagrams?
• We can recognize irrelevance without
needing to assess numbers.
• If there is no arrow between nodes A and B
given the same state of information S, then A
and B are irrelevant given S.
A B
A B
C
A B
20
An example of recognizing irrelevance
from diagrams.
A B
C D E C D E C D E
next
A B A B A B line
C D E C D E
A B A B
21
Another example of recognizing
irrelevance from diagrams.
• Distinctions • Relevance
• Kind, degree • Relevance Diagrams
• Probability • The Rules of Arrow
• Background state of Flipping
information (&)
• Inferential notation • Associative Logic
Errors
• Probabilistic inference
• Tree flipping
22
What is constitutes an
Associative Logic Error?
{A|B,&} = {B|A,&}
23
Examples of Associative Logic Errors
24