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6 Conferncia sobre Tecnologia de Equipamentos

API RP 580: QUALITATIVE RBIAN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH

John L. Tischuk ABS Group Services do Brasil

Conferncia sobre Tecnologia de Equipamentos COTEQ Salvador Bahia 19 a 21 de agosto de 2002

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SYNOPSIS Risk-Based inspection programmes are not easy options. Benefits may take a year or so to emerge and the cost of implementing and maintaining the RBI programme can be high. In addition to the cost and commitment involved in acquiring software, the drain on resources, particularly in implementing the RBI programme, can be daunting. External consultants can be used to assist with the implementation, but there is no substitute for the plants own personnel involvement, with all the benefits of buy-in and understanding that this generates. The problem is that RBI programmes typically require large amounts of up to date and accurate data. In the real world data is often out of date, inaccurate, difficult to find or missing. In the odd case where this is not so, the shear volume of data required by many RBI systems can nevertheless tie up resources for many months, even in the case of a relatively small pilot. API has developed a document, the API RP 580, which is a recommended pratice for implementing RBI. Tischuk, one of the members of the task groups which developed the RP 580, has also developed an application specific qualitative approach to RBI which complies with all aspects of this document. Qualitative approach requires much less data and is consequently much faster and cheaper to implement. It clears the way for more detailed quantitative or semi-quantitative assessment of the small percentage of high risk areas. 1 - API RP 580 It is useful in evaluating the advantages and disadvantages of alternative approaches to RBI, to have a measure by which to compare and contrast these. API RP 580 offers such a mechanism. API RP 580 is a recommended practice for developing risk-based inspection programmes for fixed equipment and piping in the hydrocarbons and chemical process industries. The guidelines were developed by an API task group over a 6 year period, concluding this year. The task group was composed of API members drawn from a cross section of oil and chemical companies, engineering contractors and inspection contractors. API RP 580 supports the use of RBI with the API Inspection codes for Pressure Vessels (API 510), Piping (API 570) and Storage Tanks (API 653). As the document says; These documents are intended to provide a framework that clarifies the expected attributes of a quality risk assessment without imposing undue constraints on users. The document is not intended to single out one specific approach as the recommended method for conducting RBI 2 - KEY ELEMENTS OF RBI API RP 580 suggests 4 key elements that should exist in any RBI programme. These are, quote: It should provide a management system for maintaining documentation, personnel qualifications, data requirements and analysis updates It should provide a documented method for probability of failure determination

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It should provide a documented method for consequence of failure determination It should provide a documented methodology for managing risk through inspection and other mitigation activities. The guidelines also suggest the expected outcomes. These are, quote: It should generate a risk ranking of all equipment evaluated It should generate a detailed inspection plan for each item including inspection methods, coverage and intervals It should give a description of any other risk mitigation activities.

3 - TYPES OF RBI ASSESSMENT Three types of RBI assessment are generally recognised. These are described in API RP 580 as follows: Qualitative approach, based on descriptive data using engineering judgement and experience Quantitative approach, based on probabilistic or statistical models SemiQuantitative approach, being any approach that has elements of both qualitative and quantitative methods. Whichever approach is adopted, it is useful to note APIs reminder to users of RP 580 that no book or manual is a substitute for the judgement of a responsible, qualified inspector or engineer. RP 580 also draws a distinction between precision and accuracy in the presentation of risk. To quote: Risk presented as a precise numeric value (as in quantitative analysis) implies a greater level of accuracy when compared to a risk matrix (as in a qualitative analysis). The implied linkage of precision and accuracy may in fact not exist because of the element of uncertainty that is inherent with probabilities and consequences. The accuracy of the output is a function of the methodology used as well as the quantity and quality of the data available. Use of expert judgement may be more meaningful and more accurate since many situations cannot be fully described by a logic model. Therefore it may be beneficial to use quantitative and qualitative methods in a complimentary fashion to produce the most reliable and efficient assessment. RP 580 describes a continuum of approaches, in which a high level qualitative approach may be used at a unit level to find the unit within a facility that provides the highest risk. Systems and equipment within the unit may then be further screened, again using the qualitative approach, with a more quantitative approach being reserved for those items determined as higher risk. 4 - QUANTITATIVE/SEMI-QUANTITATIVE IMPLEMENTATION There are several quantitative/semi-quantitative RBI products available commercially on the market that have been widely used for some years. A common feature of all is the relatively large demand for data and personnel to complete the RBI assessments. Anecdotal evidence obtained suggests fully quantitative systems are even more demanding in terms of volume and detail of data required.

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Table 1 contains actual case histories showing man-hours required to implement qualitative RBI
Facility: type/ location/ date Refinery, North America, 1998 Atmospheric Distillation, Crude Distillation, Fluid Catalytic Cracker, Thermal Coker, Hydrodesulferization, Catalytic Reformer, Hydrogen Plant Gas plant, Europe, 1997 LNG Plant, Indonesia, 2000 CO2 Refiner Unit V 94 P 285 All plant V 305 P 2,880 Metallurgist Process Operator Inspectors Metallurgist Process Operator Plant Operator Inspectors 778 8 2178 7 Units subjected to RBI Qty. vessels/ piping items V 1,264 P 4,920 Metallurgist/ Corrosion Engineer Process Operator Plant Operator Inspectors 1,900 1.5 Plant team composition personnel Man hours Man Hours/ vessel

In each case, a large proportion of the time was devoted to data collection and verification, ranging between 35% and 70%. Anecdotal evidence obtained suggests fully quantitative systems are even more demanding in terms of volume and detail of data required. 5 - QUALITATIVE IMPLEMENTATION By comparison, a qualitative approach, as API suggests, requires data inputs based on descriptive information, using engineering judgement and experience as the basis for the analysis of probability and consequences of failure. Inputs are typically given in data ranges instead of discrete values. Results are typically given in qualitative terms such as high, medium or low. The value of this type of analysis is that it enables completion of a risk assessment in the absence of detailed quantitative data. It also produces results more quickly. The accuracy of results from a qualitative analysis are dependent on the background and expertise of the analysts. In Tischuks experience, it requires much less data and that which is required is more quickly processed. Consequently the man-hours required to implement and maintain RBI programmes using a qualitative approach is significantly less, typically by a very substantial margin.

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Table 2 Qualitative RBI Implementation Case Histories

Facility :type/ location/date Chemical plant, England, 1998 Units subjected to RBI All electrical, instrument and rotating equipment Pipeline network, Indonesia, 2000 85 flow-lines, 10 trunk lines, 5 export lines 460 segme nts Pipeline Engineer Corrosion Eng. Inspector 65 0.1 11,00 0 Plant Operators Maintenance Operators Inspectors 1,200 Qty. items Plant personnel team composition Man hours Man Hours /item 0.1

Clearly direct comparisons focusing on pressure vessels might be easier to relate to, but the comparisons given nevertheless illustrate the scale of advantage.

6 - WHY RBI FAILS Tischuk International has been helping plant owners to implement RBI programmes since 1998. During this time, Tischuk has identified 5 main reasons why RBI programmes generate disappointment. These are:
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Problems with basic plant data RBI methodology too complicated for Company team members Contractors Consultants did not understand Company plant or systems Lack of buy-in by some or all of the organisation No measurable return on investment

The first of these we have examined in some detail in the preceding argument. The latter reason can be overcome relatively easily by agreeing at the outset what will constitute success in the eyes of the plant stakeholders, the Plant Manager, Maintenance/Operations Manager, Inspectors, etc. Understanding why RBI is being implemented and setting this out in an RBI policy document is a very useful precursor. With this as the basis, a set of performance targets, reflecting the business, operational and safety objectives of the plant, can be agreed. Required improvements in specific areas can be identified, such as in inspection costs. A typical menu of success measures is attached as Appendix 1. 7 - WHY QUALITATIVE RBI SUCCEEDS As API suggested, Qualitative RBI is not necessarily a substitute for a quantitative or semi-quantitative approach. In certain circumstances it may indeed be an adequate substitute. In other situations it may be a useful compliment, identifying the higher risk items upon which quantitative/semi-quantitative techniques can then be focused. A qualitative approach, by its very nature and for the reasons discussed earlier in this paper, impacts on the remaining three factors stated above (items 6.2 6.4),

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increasing the chance of successful RBI in each case. A qualitative approach relies on the application of expert local knowledge and judgement. Any system for qualitative RBI must be designed around this basic premise. A system which relies to such a large extent on inputs which are essentially determined by the user, if it is to be effective, must inevitably be one which is understood by that user. Thus, subject to appropriate training, the methodology is understood by the Company team implementing the RBI programme. This, together with the need for Company personnel to implement the RBI programme, rather than external Consultants, goes a long way to achieving Buy-In. Finally there can be no reason for failure due to lack of understanding by Contractor Consultants if they are not doing the RBI. Consultants may be involved for training and assisting Company personnel but they will not be doing the assessment or delivering a lengthy report. Based on the experience of Tischuk International, effective qualitative systems are those which are designed to be used by the company plant personnel. 8 - HOW TISCHUKS QUALITATIVE SYSTEM SATISFIES API RP 580 We earlier reviewed the 4 key elements which API recommend should exist in any RBI programme. These are:
1. 2. 3. 4.

management system for maintaining documentation, personnel qualifications, data requirements and analysis updates documented method for probability of failure determination documented method for consequences of failuredetermination documented methodology for managing risk through inspection and other mitigation activities

The outcomes which API expects were also reviewed earlier and these are:
1. 2. 3.

generate risk ranking of all equipment evaluated generate detailed inspection plan for each item including inspection methods, coverage and intervals describe any other mitigation activities

Tischuk International have a suite of application specific systems for qualitative RBI called T-REx (Tischuk Risk Expert). These systems satisfy all of these API requirements as follows: Management System: A management system provides a clearly defined framework for consistent and logical decision making by competent people in informed circumstances. The system should facilitate an efficient flow of the type of information required by the decision makers. While T-REx is designed to be configured to user needs, the framework that underpins the methodology and treatment of information cannot be modified. It is a secure management system. Only information that is relevant is retained and all decisions are recorded as an audit trail. The audit trail records all approved results along with the dates and names of the assessor and authoriser. When changes are

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made the original results are moved to an archive so the risk history of any item can be maintained. The system works with the management of change. A system of pick-lists defines the choices open to the decision makers and these are directly related to the contained information. Personnel qualifications are controlled through the 5 level security access, in which defined inputs and decision types are the domain of specific individuals. Thus certain inputs or decisions can only be made by personnel qualified and/or competent as the plant determines. Analysis updates are carried out under the same consistent regime and all changes are recorded in the audit trail. Method for Probability of Failure and Consequences of Failure Determination: The T-REx software is configured with a set of defined failure modes and users may add their own. These are described and a reliability or frequency factor is selected for each mode from a drop-down list. There are different failure modes and consequences criteria for pipelines, pressure relief valves, storage tanks, etc. The most frequent failure mode is used, in conjunction with the consequences of failure, to calculate the overall equipment criticality. Similarly the system uses a set of predetermined consequences of failure criteria specific to the equipment type under consideration. Each criterion is evaluated by user personnel using a pick-list that can be edited by those at supervisory level. The overall consequences of failure is based on the average of safety, environmental and repair consequences modified by the impact on production. Method for Managing Risk through Inspection and Other Mitigation Activities: The TaskMaster component of the T-REx system uses the results of the risk assessment to develop consistent, focused inspection, maintenance and spares programmes. It allows the user to maintain a list of standard inspection and maintenance activities and frequencies and to build logic conditions that automatically associate an inspection or maintenance task and frequency or spares strategy, with a specific item of equipment. The user then has the final option to accept or modify the task list for each item. Any such change and the reason for it is recorded in the audit trail. It is easy for T -REx to use inspection results to update the risk assessment and TaskMaster. TaskMaster in turn automatically updates the inspection plan.

9 - ILLUSTRATING API COMPLIANCE The following screen dumps taken from Tischuks T-REx programmes serve to illustrate some of the points of compliance detailed in section 8 above:

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Asset Tree

The above screen dump shows how the asset register for the plant is organised as an asset tree. Risk assessments may be carried out at any level. The subsequent inspection and maintenance plan is then worked at the level chosen. Users may choose to carry out the first assessment at system or equipment level and then work down to component level for more critical items.This engenders more efficient working practices. Consequences of Failure

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T-REx M uses four consequences of failure criteria. Each is evaluated by user personnel using a drop down pick-list. The pick-list can be edited by supervisor personnel. The overall consequences of failure is based on the average of safety, environmental and repair consequences modified by the impact on production. Probability of Failure T-REx M allows users to add one or more failure modes to each item. Each failure mode is described by the user and a reliability or frequency factor is selected from a drop down list. Estimated times for detection of the failure, to take immediate corrective action and to make a permanent repair are added along with the estimated cost. This aids in the identification of low cost items with a large impact on plant reliability. T-REx uses the most frequent failure mode to assess the overall equipment criticality. TaskMaster

After completing the criticality assessment, TaskMaster allows the user to develop consistent, focused inspection, maintenance and spares programmes. TaskMaster allows the user to maintain a list of standard inspection activities and frequencies. TaskMaster then enables users to build logic conditions that automatically associate a maintenance task and frequency or a spares strategy with a specific item. The user then has the final option to accept or modify the inspection task list for each piece of equipment.

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10 - CONCLUSIONS RBI programmes can be costly to implement and maintain and may impose a heavy burden on plant resources because of the volume and complexity of data required. RBI programmes can under-perform in delivering benefits due to lack of buy-in by plant personnel and their lack of understanding of the RBI methodology. A qualitative approach to RBI requires much less data and is much faster and cheaper to implement and maintain. The accuracy of results of a qualitative approach can be just as good as in a quantitative approach, provided the analysts have appropriate background and expertise. Qualitative and quantitative approaches to RBI can be used in a complimentary way to produce the most reliable and efficient assessment. Where the qualitative RBI is applied at a higher level to identify the higher risk areas, it clears the way for more focused quantitative analysis of the higher risk items that really matter. To be effective, a qualitative RBI system should be designed to be used by local plant personnel. In this way it overcomes the main causes of disappointment with RBI programmes. All RBI approaches can be enhanced by the adoption of an RBI policy document, performance targets and training. Tischuks T-REx (Tischuk Risk Expert) qualitative RBI system satisfies the requirements of API RP 580 for effective RBI programmes.

11 REFERENCE API RP 580, Risk Based Inspection, American Petroleum Institute, Draft #6, July, 2001 TISCHUK, John L., Consultants Guide To RBI Project Implementation Using T-REx Software Products, Tischuk International Ltd, United Kingdom, January 2001 TISCHUK, John L., The Application of Risk Based Approaches to Inspection Planning, Tischuk International Ltd, United Kingdom, 1997 TISCHUK, John L., Development Tools for RBI, RBI Conference, Perth, Australia, April 2000.