The Football Betting Mastermind

Your bible to successful football betting

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Football Betting Mastermind 2010

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'isclaimer

The author, publishers and any third parties connected to this e-book cannot be held responsible for any loss incurred from using the information provided in this book. The strategies and methods outlined in the football etting !astermind have been developed to give you a better chance of winning money, when followed correctly the systems should produce consistent profits, however we cannot guarantee or promise future profitability in anyway. "lthough every effort has been made to produce a successful system that reduces the chance of losing, it is still classed as betting and any form of betting insures a risk factor. #nly bet what you can afford to lose.

(ntroduction $irst and foremost % would like to thank you for investing in this book& you have made a very wise decision. This book will not 'ust represent a betting system but will become your betting bible( )ou will learn e*actly how the professional gamblers work and how they make their living through football betting. )ou will become an e*pert at football betting and will have a defiant edge not only over 99.+, of punters but the bookies as well. )hat*s this all about+ #ver the past few years % have been looking at ways to make a living from football betting. Now this may surprise you but % haven-t been buying every football system on the net or subscribing to tipping services in a .uest to find /the one-( No, % have been putting my time into researching what it is the very small minority of punters are actually doing to make consists profits week after week. %t took a while but eventually % got there, and all the time it was right in front of me, staring me in the face. )ou see, the reason you and the ma'ority of the betting population fail to make any kind of profit from betting, particularly football betting, is because they bet on the wrong events, the wrong markets and most importantly the wrong teams, without even mentioning discipline and money management. 0eople love to bet, and every week they will go to their local bookies and fill out a football coupon, maybe even have a scorecast or 1st goal scorer in the hope that they can win .uite a large amount in a short period of time. 1nfortunately the ma'ority of them lose, maybe 'ust 1 team has let them down on their coupon but they still lose, well the professional gambler is sitting their counting his money. % am guilty of this too and % still have a coupon at the weekend, but only very small stakes and only for entertainment value. %n no way do % e*pect to make serious money from a football coupon, first goal scorer or any other type of bet of this nature.

,o -hat e.actl is it ou bet on to ma&e a living out of football+ % don-t want this book to be hundreds of pages long and % don-t want to waffle on about this that and everything to make the book seem longer. % am going to get straight to the point. $orget accumulators, doubles, trebles, first goal scorers etc2 The absolute number 1 rule is to bet on )(/ ,(/012, 3/1Y% Yes4 the most sim!le and straight fore-ord bet ou can !lace% A sim!le )(/ bet% This is -hat the !ro*s do and this is -hat ou should be doing too% A single bet either -ins or loses4 if ou had an accumulator and 1 team loses and the other 5 -in4 ou still lose% (f ou had !laced a -in single on each bet then ou -ould have 5 -inners and 1 loser% 'on*t be fooled b the !otentiall high returns of accumulators4 the ma loo& a!!ealing but the are not% 6nless ou*re a boo&ie of course77

3&4 so -ho do ( bet on+ % am going to split this book into sections because there are a couple of different methods % use each week. % will e*plain each section as simple as % can3 1. % will e*plain the theory 4. % will then show you the evidence 5. % will then show you e*actly how to find the winning selections every week and make a healthy profit 6imple22.

6ection 1 involves backing short priced, /hot- and /strong- teams 6ection 4 involves backing lower league teams with value odds 6ection 5 involves betting on the #ver71nder goals market

6ection 1
/ acking short priced favourites that are almost certain to win, and guaranteed to give you a long term profit1% The theor efore % began my research % presumed that professional gamblers knew something that the rest of us didn-t, % believed they had large winners at high odds, or they had inside information or they 'ust got lucky. 8ow wrong could % be2 "fter spending many hours talking to people, researching and finding out e*actly what they were doing to make consistent profits from football betting % was .uite surprised when % discovered the answer. 9et me ask you this22 %f you bet :1; every 6aturday would you walk into your local bookies and put :1; on <helsea to win at 17=> This means you would win :1.=? @ould you do it> N#, % didn-t think so. That-s not even enough to buy you a pint. %t probably doesn-t even cross your mind. ut this is e*actly what the professional gamblers do and it-s what % have been doing all last season, however, with higher stakes than :1;. Avery weekend there will be a number of teams that are priced somewhere between 17? and B7=, and 99, of punters will discard them straight away. They include them in their accumulators in the hope of increasing their winnings slightly, but very few will consider backing them outright, and this makes the bookie very happy, because he knows that there are certain teams that have an almost certain chance of winning and very few people are going to bet on them, in fact many people will be against them in the hope of a shock result and there small stake gets them big winnings, but very rarely does this happen. % may sound a little crude but you must place yourself in a different frame of mind from now on, if you want to start making consistent profits from football betting 'ust like the pro-s then the first 4 things you must do is to bet /win singles- and bet at /odds on- prices. C1nless there is very good value to be had, which % will e*plain about laterD 6imple(

@ell not .uite that simple, this is only the half of it. %f you 'ust went around betting on any odds on teams then you will .uickly find yourself bankrupt. There are certain teams and certain ways in which we select our bets each week. %f you follow football already you will know that there are what % call /hotteams2 8ot teams These are the teams that are way above the rest, and are e*pected to win every week, although we know this is not possible we are surprised when they don-t win. The teams % am talking about are !anchester 1nited, <helsea, arcelona, Eeal !adrid, %nter !ilan etc. including other teams who dominate lower divisions too. "nd it-s no surprise that these are the teams with very low odds, but are they actually that low>> $or e*ample, to the average punter they may see the price of 17= for <helsea to beat $ulham at home way to low for their likening and they see no value at all. Now to the professional gambler who knows that <helsea are currently in great form, have the home advantage, have not conceded a goal in 5 games and are playing a $ulham side who are very poor away, and have 'ust come back from a recent Auropean match, maybe thinking this is a very good bet, and he knows that this bet will probably win 1974; times. 8e places :+;; and waits to collect his :85 profit, well the average punter had placed his accumulator with + odds on teams and one of them draws leaving him with a loss. 9,trong teams* There are also teams that % like to call /strong teams-, these are the teams that are doing well and are usually between 5rd F ?th position in the league, they usually have a good home record but not as consistent as the /hot- teams. Their odds are usually higher than the /hot- teams too. @e are talking B7? F 1;711 shots. @hen we get good at selecting /6trong- teams then our profits really grow .uickly. 'ed certs #k, so now you know that we are focusing on /hot- teams and /strong teams-, but we do not 'ust go around betting on every hot team every week. There are a few important factors that we must determine in order to select our /ded certs-. These are the bets that we are 99, certain will win. 0eople who make consistent money from football betting only bet on teams they are almost certain will win. % will be showing you e*actly how to find these /ded certsshortly.

#k, but % don-t have :1;;; to bet on a football match> Gon-t worry, % will cover this later and show you how to start with smaller stakes, but now % want to show you some evidence that what % am saying is 1;;, true.

2% 2vidence
"s % live very close to one of the countries leading bookmakers head.uarters % have a couple of friends who work there, and basically what happens is the punters who place large bets are known by the bookie as /markers& basically when the telephone rings and its 'o blogs who bets thousands, he will be identified by the computer straight away and be put through to a department that handles large bets. Now there are a few very wealthy people who bet thousands of pounds on practically anything, and these people also lose thousands of pounds and the betting company treat them very nicely. #n the other hand there are people who bet big and win, and win consistently, and guess what they are betting on> )ou guessed it, short odds football matches. Now % know you only have my word for it so here is more evidence that % have gathered. )ou may or may not be aware of a website called online betting guide, basically it-s a sports betting website where anybody can sign up and share their tips. %t also lets you place pretend bets and it keeps a record of your bets including profit7loss. 8aving done a .uick search of profitable tipsters, Cwhich you can do yourself if you likeD % came across a couple that seem to make a profit every single month. Take a look at the screen shot below3

@here it says /twelve month profit se.uence- you will see a number of /green thumbs up- this indicates that this person made a profit during that month. "s you can see in the first e*ample, this person has been giving his tips on there for + months and has had + profitable months. %n the second e*ample you will see that this person has had 14 out of 14 profitable months. "nd guess what they were betting on> )ou guessed it again( single /odds on- football matches. Take a look at some of the individual bets below. There is no way of making these up or fi*ing the profits as #9 H does all of this for you.

This guy has been doing e*actly what % have been talking about in this book, throughout "pril and the start of !ay he has bet on 1B football matches and won all 1B giving him a profit of :1+;4, you can see he has also placed a couple of successful Tennis bets but we will discard them. Take a look at the teams he has bet on and the odds. The odds don-t look very appealing do they but look how .uickly the profits amount up, also look at what teams he is betting on. )es, the /hot- teams((

Thinks that-s impressive, take a look at this guys below, he made :;52< from his football bets in little over 1 month%

% want you to take a closer look at his bets. Notice on !ay 9th he had + single bets on the /hot- teams and all + won giving him a profit of :5++. Now if he had an accumulator instead and placed 'ust 1 bet on all them winning he would have won :B+9, great you maybe thinking, but this is only :1;B more than what he won anyway, and what if 1 of the teams didn-t win> 8e losses the lot. Take a look at "pril 11th, he had B single bets but only 5 of them won, and he only lost :81 Cif he was betting level stakes it would only of actually been a :+8 loss, but for some reason he bet :B;9 on Halatasaray instead of his usual :+;;D %f he had bet an accumulator he would have lost :+;;. % hope you can see that by betting win singles only you stand a much better chance of making long term consistent profits. 9ook at "pril 1Bth, he had B teams at very short odds. "ll B won giving him a profit of :B4+. %f he had bet an accumulator instead he would have won an e*tra :158, but if 1 had lost he would have lost :+;;. ut as he has bet singles the

most he stands to lose should 1 team fail to win is :4B+, if the lowest odds team losses he would lose :1B; instead. "s you can see, much better than losing :+;;. )ou may argue that by betting singles he is actually staking more money therefore stands to lose more. This is true but when we are sticking to our strict rules and betting on /hot- teams the chances of losing are very very slim. % hope by now you can see my theory of placing single bets and that to win consistently you need to bet on /hot- teams. The big .uestion now is.. 8o- do -e find the 9hot* teams and -hich ones do -e avoid+ Hood .uestion. %f you take a look at the weekend coupon you will notice that there are a number of teams that have odds between 8711 F 17?, and .uite obviously these are very much favoured to win, but it doesn-t mean they will. 9ets say there are 8 teams that have odds shorter than 8711. #ut of these 8 teams + will probably win, 6o our 'ob is to make sure we find the teams that are going to win. )ou may be surprised to here this but we are not going to concentrate on form. @hy not> ecause this is how the bookies compile their odds. %f team " has shorter odds than Team it usually means that team " is a better team or has had a better run of results over the past few games than Team . "s we are betting on short odds on teams it-s obvious that they are going to be the better team and have better form. @e will be looking a little deeper than form itself. 8ome Advantage% %t is a well known fact that the home teams does better than away teams. Guring the 4;;971; season in the premiership, +1, were home wins, 4+, Graws and 4B, "way wins. This is usually reflected in the odds. !anchester 1td will be a much shorter price at home than they would be playing the e*act same team on the same day, away, because looking at the stats, home teams win more often than not. 6o what does this mean for us> @e can be even more confident in backing home teams or we can get better value when a hot team is playing away>

6o let-s eliminate the ma'ority of teams and take a look at some /hot- teams. The obvious 4 being !an utd and <hlsea. 8ere are the stats for <helsea last season3

#ut of their 19 home matches they have won an incredible 1? of them. That-s 89, "way they have won 'ust over half of their games with +1,

9ets take a look at !anchester 1td who finished in second place3

"s you can see, we have a similar story again. #ut of 19 games they have won 1= of them, and away from home they have won 'ust over half, +8, The same thing applies with "rsenal who finished 5rd. They won 1+ out of 19 home games.

%t-s the same story in the 6panish league too. oth arcelona and Eeal !adrid have only failed to win once at home all season. 6o we now know that by sticking to home teams we stand a much higher chance of winning. !ost of the bets % place are on home teams, however there are some occasions when % bet on the away team when % feel they still stand an e*cellent chance of winning and their price is better. % will come to this later.

B no- ( ho!e that ou understand the theor behind this method and agree -ith the evidence that ( have sho-ed ou% ( am no- going to sho- ou ho- to select the -inning bets over =0> of the time77

8o- to find the -inning selections7 @ith this method % find that it-s a case of finding the risky bets and discarding them rather than finding the winning bets, because lets face it. 9ike % said before, these are well fancied teams with short odds that are e*pected to win. 6o

its very easy to identify them. %f there are say = possible bets this weekend for our /hot- and /strong- teams, we need to identify the best ones and discard the more risky ones. %f you 'ust kept backing all of them you would eventually find yourself in trouble. The first thing % do each weekend is to print a copy of this $EAA football prediction table. 6imply go to3 http377www.gyme*.com7 8ere is an e*ample for the Anglish premier league and the 6panish 9iga. ? The first column sho-s the fi.ture ? The second column sho-s the soft-are*s !rediction @1 A home -in% B A dra-4 2 A a-a -inC ? The third column sho-s the !redicted result4 but -e don*t reall need to -orr about this% ? The ne.t 2 columns are for the results4 -hich -e don*t &no- et as the games have et to be !la ed% ? The se!arate column to the right sho-s the !ercentage of each outcome% ,o for e.am!le the first match sho-s that Arsenal have a <5> chance of -inning4 and 1< > chance of a dra- and Bolton have a D> chance of -inning. asically that-s all that-s to it. )ou will notice that it sometimes predicts 4 results for the same match, e.g. $ulham v @olves it predicts a home win or a draw.

#k, so you have printed out the table. )ou now need a red pen and a blue pen and you need to highlight the /8ot- teams in red and the /6trong- teams in blue. #nce you have done that you need to go to etfair.com and get the prices for the teams you 'ust highlighted and write them ne*t to the tableC%f you are unsure which teams are the /hot- and /strong- teams please go back to page 5D

#nce you have done this you should have a table that looks like the one below3

#n this occasion we have identified + 8#T teams and 9 6TE#NH teams. #ur 'ob now is to remove the risky bets. To do this you can start by following these set of rules. 1% 2% ;% $% 5% E% 'iscard an 9strong* team @blueC if the are !la ing a 98ot* team @redC 'iscard an 9strong* team that is !la ing a-a 'iscard an 9strong* team -ith odds lo-er than 1%5 'iscard an 98ot* team that is !la ing another 98ot* team 'iscard an 98ot* team that is !la ing a-a against a 9,trong* team 'iscard an 98ot* team -ith odds less than 1%15 @its Fust not -orth betting on odds lo-er than thisC

0ut a line through any team which fall under any of the above rules. #k, once you have done this you should now have a table that looks like the one below3

Eight. @e have reduced our original 1B teams down to =3 Arsenal Ghelsea 0etafe Heal Madrid ,evilla Ialencia

Now its time to do a little research and see if we need to eliminate anymore teams. 0lease make sure you have followed everything correctly up to this point. %f you are unsure about anything then please go back a few pages. etfair now give you a free form guide with every match so this is the first thing we are going to look at. )ou can find the form guide by clicking on the game that wish to see and then clicking /form stats- as indicated below.

" new screen will then open like the one below3

"s there have only been 5 games so far this season there is not much form to go off. "s we can see, "rsenal have won their last 4 games C4-1D and C=-;D and they have beaten olton on their last 5 occasions. olton have decent form, they are unbeaten in their previous B games this season, however they have not faced any strong opposition. They drew to irmingham, beat @est 8am who are bottom of the league and beat 6outhampton who are not even in the same league, as this was a cup match. 6o 'ust by looking at this evidence alone suggests that "rsenal have a very good chance of winning this match. 3ther factors to determine " couple of other things you want to ask yourself are3 1. "re they any key players missing from the team we are backing> )ou can check all the team news at the <76port website. %f there are a number of key players missing you may want to reconsider the bet.
4. 8as the team 'ust returned from a recent Auropean match> This can

sometimes have an effect on the team.

5. 8as either team 'ust sacked their manager or appointed a new manager> %f so % would suggest avoiding this game. B. @hat is there at stake> %f the weaker team needs to win to avoid relegation then you don-t want to be betting on this game. 8aving gone through this set of Juestions4 Arsenal still loo& a good bet and ( -ill be bac&ing them% You then need to do this -ith the remaining teams that -e have selected% Ghelsea are !la ing fantastic a the minute -inning all of there !remier league games so far ver comfortabl 4 the face )est 8am -ho sit at the bottom of the table% A no brainer even though the are a-a % /o- on to Heal Madrid4 here is a screenshot of their form from Betfair

There has only been 1 game so far in the 6painsh league so we must be careful. 9ooking at the stats here we can see that Eeal !adrid have won + of their last = games at home, losing only to arcelona. #sasuna have lost their last = away games. % think this is enough evidence to suggest a Eeal !adrid win here.

Ialencia v ,antander

"gain, Ialencia are a /strong- team playing at home. They have a very good home record as you can see, winning the last =. 6antander do not have a good away record. % have decided that these B bets are the strongest as we can plainly see by the evidence. % have decided to avoid the other 4 games as its only the second game of the season so not a lot to go off and the form is not as strong as the games we have selected. @e now have B bets that we are very confident in and now % will be placing my bets3

8ere % am using :1+; stakes. %f there is a /8ot- team that is at home and has odds of 1.4 or under then % increase my stake for this to :4;;. #bviously you may bet as much or as little as you like but % suggest you stick to the same stake for every bet unless the odds are between 1.1+ F 1.4 and you are e*tremely confident. )ith Fust these $ bets -e stand to -in :1=$%<5

Hesults K All $ of our bets -on giving us a ma.imum !rofit of :1=$%<5% 0etafe also -on although -e did not bet on them and ,eville dre-% This reall is sim!le stuff and -ill onl ta&e ou 20 minutes before each -ee&end4 ou should be loo&ing at achieving around a D5> L stri&e using this method% Hemember4 Fust follo- the ste!s above and as& ourself the Juestions on !age 15% (MM3HTA/T K You must &ee! a record of ever bet ou !lace% B follo-ing the methods ( have sho-n ou above -ill &ee! ou disci!lined% (f ou seriousl -ant to ma&e mone from this ou need to treat it li&e a business4 therefore ou must &ee! records so that ou can trac& our !rogress% To ma&e an business successful ou need to be organised and ma&e the right decisions% 2.actl the same goes for this77

,ummar Mage for section 1"

Bet on 98ot* Teams and 9,trong* teams% 0o to http377www.gyme*.com70redictions.html and print out the weekend

fi*tures7prediction table 8ighlight the /8ot- teams in red and the /6trong- teams in blue. #nce you have done that you need to go to etfair.com and get the prices for the teams you 'ust highlighted and write them ne*t to the table. Now you must follow these rules3 1% 2% ;% $% 5% E% 'iscard an 9strong* team @blueC if the are !la ing a 98ot* team @redC 'iscard an 9strong* team that is !la ing a-a 'iscard an 9strong* team -ith odds lo-er than 1%5 'iscard an 98ot* team that is !la ing another 98ot* team 'iscard an 98ot* team that is !la ing a-a against a 9,trong* team 'iscard an 98ot* team -ith odds less than 1%15 @its Fust not -orth betting on odds lo-er than thisC

0ut a line through any team which fall under any of the above rules. @ith the remaining teams you need to go to etfair and do a little more research on their stats. !ake sure that your selections are viable and you are e*tremely confident that they will will. "lso check to see if the tam has and ma'or in'uries, new manager, or 'ust retuned from a Auropean match away. Now place your bets on your selections and wait too collect your profits( Eemember, stay disciplined and only bet if you are almost certain of a win2 % recommend you print this page and keep it as a guide((

,ection 2 1% The theor @ith section 1 we concentrated on the top leagues. @e were looking to bet on the top teams in Aurope to give us a consistent and long term profit by backing /hot- and /strong- teams at odds on prices. "lthough we have a massive amount of information available to us for each and every game in top flight football, so do the bookies. @e can-t really get an edge over them because the premier league is that publicised in this country that everybody knows what-s going on. )ou only have to pick up a paper or watch sky sports news. This is why we concentrated on odds on teams because there is never really much value available because all of the odds are pretty accurate. 6o in this section we are going to be looking at /value- bets with higher prices, and to find these we are going to look at the lower leagues2.. @hy> ecause we can gain a better understanding and greater knowledge about lower teams and leagues than the bookies can. 6o basically we can have a huge advantage over them(( !ost odds compilers spend most of their time pricing up premiership games, meaning less time on the lower leagues. They basically use recent form, reputation and current league position to determine the odds, they don-t actually get to see every game and analyse every club, they don-t know if certain players are in'ured, they don-t know that a certain team who has lost their last 5 games has actually been playing very well and been very unlucky. The bookie will 'ust continue to give this team high odds because they have been losing,, where us on the other hand know that the team has been performing well and are very capable of winning a game very soon. @e back them at a very nice price and say thanks very much to the bookie(( %f you get a good feel for a lower league and you know a bit of information about a few of the teams then you can really make big money without having to use massive stakes. % like to call it /lower league scalping- because you are going to become an e*pert at one of the lower leagues and you are going to bleed the bookie of a lot of money, because you know more than them.

)ou should be getting very e*cited by the prospects of this section. This is my favourite section and this is where you should treat this 'ust like a business. )ou can actually make a comfortable full time living if you get this right(( %-m going to show you e*actly what you need to do and where to find the information you need to be successful at this method, but first % am going to show you some evidence. 2% The 2vidence !y specialised league is league 4. This is because % am a 0ort Iale 6upporter. Cdon-t laugh(D Now over the past few years Iale have done nothing, they have managed to survive and that-s about it. %n fact, they are usually one of the favourites to go down. 9ast season they appointed a new manager and he started to turn things around and Iale began to play well and rise up the league, they actually had an e*cellent away record but there home form was a bit average. They missed out on the play offs by a few points. efore the start of this season 0ort Iale played a few friendly matches, they played well and were winning and their new signings were looking impressive. $rom all the speculation in the local papers and the confidence surrounding the club and by seeing them play % new that % was onto a good thing by backing 0ort Iale, especially away from home, and having one of the best, if not the best away record out of every team in the league last season. " lot of people % know actually backed Iale for promotion this season, even 6toke supporters, which says a lot( 6o the season begins and Iale are playing away to ury and they are available at a very tasty 5.4+. Now if 0ort Iale had been at home then they would probably have odds more like 4, but because they are away they get higher odds, that-s 'ust how it works with the bookies Cas e*plained in the previous section on pages 8 and 9D. Now % know that Iale have a good side, they are playing well and are especially good away from home. 6o this is enough to suggest a bet on 0ort Iale They went onto win the game 1-;

The following fi*ture was away again but in the cup, this time they faced J0E. "t the time of writing this J0E are sitting comfortably at the top of their league, which incidentally is 4 leagues above Iale. 0ort Iale actually beat them 5-1. "gain, compelling evidence. "t the time of writing 0ort Iale have played B league games away from home and won all B, conceding only 1 goal. "fter beating ury away there ne*t opponents away were 6outhend, who they beat 5-1. There ne*t away opponents were radford, and they were still giving very tasty odds of 4.8 for Iale to @in, which of course they did. y following 'ust 1 club in a lower league you can gain a huge advantage over the bookie. #nce you start to follow 1 club you will .uickly gain an insight to the other teams in the league. $or e.g. 0ort Iale have 'ust beat !acclesfield 5-; away. Now from what % have heard from people who went to watch the game is that !acclesfield didn-t play that bad and did not deserve to be beaten 5-;, they 'ust failed to put away their chances and Iale took there-s. Now the bookies will look at this result and think2 !acclesfield have had another beating, we will give them a higher price ne*t game. ut % know that !acclesfield are very capable of winning at some point even though they are not doing very well in the league. "t the time of writing this, !acclesfield-s ne*t opponents are Tor.uay away, which will obviously be a tough game considering Tor.uay are Bth the in the league and !acclesfield are 44nd. The price for a !acclesfield win is a massive ?.B on etfair, and the price for a draw is a very tasty B.4. Kust by looking at the form stats from etfair we can see that Tor.uay have drawn 5 from their last B games, and we know that !acclesfield are capable of producing a result, so % think that B.4 for the draw is good value and ?.B for the win is also worth a bet( Eemember, we are looking for /good value- bets, not /ded certs8o- to find the -inning selections7 %f you already support a team in league 1 or 4 then great, you are already half way there. %f not then you are going to start following a team from today. )ou are going to start following the closest team to where you live that play in league 1 or 4.

@hy> 6imply because you can get access to local newspapers, you can talk to friends or people you know who watch the team every week. )ou can listen in on people down the pub and you can even go to the odd game if you wish. %t-s very important that you know the ins and outs of the team you have chosen. 8ere is what % suggest you do3 $irstly, have a browse around your teams official website and read the latest news about the club, read player reviews and match reports. Aither watch them or listen to them on the radio every week so that you get a feel for how they are playing and what there strengths and weaknesses are. Eead the local news paper, you can pick up some great information. #k, it won-t take you long to become familiar with your team. %t-s very important that you do this, remember, we are treating this like a business, you wouldn-t go into business without knowing anything about the market you are going into. 6ame applies here( Now that you are familiar with your team and you have started to follow their results, you will need to start making notes on the opposition, like the e*ample % gave you on page 4; where % said that although Iale beat !acclesfield 5-;, they didn-t deserve to lose 5-; and that they had the ability to win games. Therefore % made a note in my book about !acclesfield. 8ere-s another e*ample. % went to watch 0ort Iale v <hesterfield at the start of the season. "s % was walking up to the ground % stopped at the burger van, ne*t to me was a chesterfield fan and he asked me how % though the game would finish. 8e then told me that <hesterfield were looking good this year and he e*pected them to finish near the top as they had made a few changes etc and playing well2 The game finished in a draw but % made a note of what this guy had said to me. "t the time of writing this, <hesterfield are 5rd in the league and 'ust 1 point behind Iale( )ou will also get a lot of fans saying that their team is going to struggle. This is really good information for us because if a teams own support says they are going to struggle then they probably are.

The BBG The < is a great website for us. %t has tons of information about the lower leagues. % recommend you visit this site every week to check on the latest team news, fi*tures, in'uries etc.. )ou can even watch all of the highlights from the previous week-s games. % highly recommend you do this and listen to what the commentators have to say, you can pick up some great tips 'ust by doing this, as well as gaining a better understanding for the league. http377news.bbc.co.uk7sport17hi7football7engLdivL57default.stm

8o- to find out all of this informationN% "part from speaking to people directly the best resources are for us, is without doubt the online forums. 8ere you can see hundreds of people discussing all sorts of things about football and their local team. !ost fans are honest in that they will tell you if there team was lucky to get a result today, or if there best player has 'ust been suspended and they don-t think they can win without him. )ou can build up a very big picture fast, by reading the forums. 8ere is an e*ample % 'ust got while .uickly browsing through the etfair forum3 This was from a Eochdale fan who as obviously given his honest opinion.

MK Dons 1-1 Rochdale . . . Another great result for our lads on the road , thats 8pts from a possible 12 and is the best in the league at this time .Yet another game in hich e loo!ed second best for most of the "# mins , MK loo! a $er% tid% outfit and ont drop man% pts at home . &he% ga$e us the runaround for '() of the game , but , e ha$e a game plan that fits this st%le of pla% , *raig Da son as a esome at the bac! and loo!ed e$er% inch the +remiership pla%er he ill be ne,t season . MK ill be $er% disappointed the% didn-t get .pts toda% but so hat , /righton and 0outhampton must ha$e felt the same a% .

*heers 1arren .
8e has 'ust admitted that his team were second best all game and that !M Gons looked a very good side. C"nother note in the book hereD 8e said that there defender /<raig Gawson- was /awesome- and was premiership standard. 6o you could make a note of this and when /<raig Gawson- is not playing for whatever reason then you may consider backing against Eochdale. % have 'ust taken this .uote from a league 4 forum regarding the game between !orecambe v arnet which at the time of writing, is being played this weekend. 6omebody predicted !orecombe 5 F ; arnet. This is the reply from an actual arnet fan.. I predict the second half will also be the same score, comfortable home win, with no more than 70 from Barnet (Me not included). Watching us away is not an option, can thin of many other things to waste my money on #bviously not much confidence in the arnet camp at the minute(( #k, here is the forums % use to gather all my research for the up and coming games. )ou can read what other fans have to say about their teams. This is an essential part of this section and you must do this if you want to become successful at football betting3 $orums http377www.thefootballforum.net7 http377www.footballforums.net7forums7 )ou can also use the etfair $ootball forum but % don-t think its as good as the two % gave you above because you get a lot of idiots on there and people talking about all sorts of rubbish, however there are people that do make some interesting points.

% hope by now that you have understood that by gaining an e*tended knowledge on a lower league that you can take advantage of the value in price and make yourself a nice profit. 6o far % have told you that you need to follow a team in league 1 or 4 that you live near to. )ou then need do some research on that team and other teams in the league by using the official club website and the < site % mentioned on page 41. )ou then need to start making notes on each of the teams. This can be comments you heard somebody saying down the pub, other supporters, people on the forums % mentioned. "lso watch the highlights of the leagues games on the < site and listen to what the commentators had to say. y doing this you will very .uickly build up a picture of your chosen league. )ou are then ready to start betting, and here is what you do3

1D Het a list of the up and coming fi*tures for your chosen league 4D $irstly, concentrate on the fi*ture that involves your team, because this is the team that you understand the most, so it makes sense. 5D Eead through the forums and see what other supporters are saying and make notes BD 6ee what supporters of the other team are saying. "re they playing well, do they have in'uries, is confidence high or low2 +D $rom the evidence you have gathered and the info you know make a decision as to what you think the outcome will be =D <heck the odds and ask yourself if the price looks good value #nce you have been following your team for a while you will find it much easier to predict the outcome of a fi*ture.

8ere is an e.am!le of -hat ou need to do"

8ere are the fi*tures and prices taken from et5=+, they are not necessarily the best prices available but ok for the time being.

"s we can see, my team, 0ort Iale are +7= to win, 147+ to draw and ?74 to lose. % now look at my personal notes3 !ale ha"e a good team and good manager this year #$cellent start to the season %oberts returns to the team after suspension (!ales best player by far) !ale &tri ers are in form 'onfidence is high !ales home record is not as good as it should be, although they ha"e won their last ( home games

% know take a .uick look at "ccrington-s current form3 )layed 7 and won ( with * draws +hey are unbeaten this season +heir , away games ha"e all been 0-0 #k, now its time to check the forums3 8ere are the comments from Iale fans3 .nother tough game - got a lot of time for &tanley and the way that 'oleman has wor ed relati"e wonders on a shoestring budget. /ey, as I thin it is in so many games will be that first goal. If we can get that, &tanley will need to come out more and that will ma e it a bit easier for us to play our way than ha"ing to try to brea down a bric wall. If &tanley get it then it0ll be a "ery, "ery difficult afternoon for us. +hese away wins we0re pic ing will count for nothing unless we match it with our home form1 . win on &aturday is a must, but certainly can0t be ta en for granted1

8ere are comments from Accrington fans the problem teams are finding against &tanley is that we seem to ha"e a really tenacious midfield *. +hey are chasing down e"ery ball and seem able to run li e that for 20 minutes. 3nfortunately we ha"e lost ray putterill to a 40 odd day ban and he was part ( of the craft to go with the graft - the other being 5immy %yan. +eams aren0t getting time on the ball to play pretty patterns through us or around us, so are ha"ing to resort to trying to put it o"er us. 'entre bac s lo"e that ind of tactic1 But one day we will get caught out by it and will be done for pace o"er the top. .s far as I can see the best way to counter us is literally that, sit deep and in"ite us to attac you then try to brea out. But that is a dodgy tactic e"ery time and we ha"e got players who can unloc stubborn defenses - sometimes

#k, now it-s time to evaluate the evidence. Hoing from what we can see % think we can discard an away win, so that leaves us with a home win or a draw, % think this is a tough one to choose as % think it could be close, so lets have a look at the odds to see if this helps. The best price available for a draw is 157+ with @illiam 8ill C% use http377www.odds checker.comD to find the best prices. The best !rice for a home -in is 5#E

1oo&ing at the odds -e are getting a much higher !rice for a dra-4 and going from our evidence this loo&s a good bet at 1;#5% (f ou -ere using :100 sta&es -ould stand to ma&e a !rofit of :2E1

Mla it safe
"lternatively you could bet on both outcomes, here are a few e*amples if you were betting :1;; stakes3 aC (f ou fancied a home -in slightl over a dra- then ou could cover ourself so that ou brea&even if it is a dra-% ,o ou could !lace :<2 on Iale to -in and :2D on the dra-% (t -ould loo& li&e this" (f Iale -in as !redicted ou -in :;$%=E but if it*s a dra- ou still -in :;

bC (f li&e me4 ou fancied the dra- due to the better !rice4 but didn*t -ant to lose an mone should Iale -in the ou could bet :5; on the -in and :$< on a dra-% (f (t is a dra- then ou ma&e :<0 !rofit but if Iale -in ou -ont actuall lose an thing

Hight thenNNNN% @e have completed our evaluation on our team and placed our bets. Now it-s time to have a look through some other fi*tures. )ou will need to have a look through your notes and see if anything appeals to you. Eemember earlier on how % said that % noted that !acclesfield did not really deserve to lose 5-; and that Tor.uay had drawn there previous 4 matches and the price of B.4 looked decent value. "lso backing !acclesfield at ?.4 is also a good value bet as % am very confident they will win soon.

Mort Iale -ent on to -in 2?0 Macclesfield actuall beat TorJua ;?14 so -e didn*t have to -ait long for a Macclesfield -in77 % could sit here a write hundreds of pages of e*amples but % think that would be unnecessary, hopefully you have grasped the idea. 0lease read through this section a couple of times. % hope by now that you understand the importance of gaining a bit of information to give yourself an edge over the bookies. %f you put the effort in you will reap the rewards. This may not be like other systems you have used, as with this you need to make your own 'udgement. %f like most systems you base your selections purely on form then you will never make any money because this is what the bookies use to price up the games. 6o if for e*ample you have a system that says something like2 /back teams that have won their previous 5 games and are playing against a team that is at least + places below them in the league- then you are never going to get any value and will eventually lose, because you are 'ust going on form. )ou need more than that to become a successful punter(

,ummar @hen betting on 0remiership and other top Auropean leagues then stick to the /8ot- teams and the /6trong- teams. )ou won-t really find much value in these leagues so you-ve got to go for a high strike rate. Meep it simple and only place single bets. @hen you become more comfortable you can then start to bet on the lower leagues. This is where you really need to treat it like a business and keep notes and records of everything. )ou should be e*cited at the fact that you are going to become an e*pert at your chosen league& you will have more knowledge than the bookie does and you will be able to spot value when you see it. Hive yourself target but never chase losses. )ou will encounter losing bets but you will also encounter a lot of winning bets.

,ection ;
This section involves betting on the over7under market. asically we are betting on their being under 4.+ goals or over 4.+ goals in a game. The theory %n recent years, a new football betting market has evolved. The under7over 4.+ goals market has become increasingly popular among sports betting enthusiasts and soccer fans. This kind of football betting allows punters to try to predict whether or not there will be less than 4.+ goals scored in a match or more than 4.+ goals. Newcomers to football betting can be confused by the 4.+ figure after all it is not possible to score this number of goals in a match. The 4.+ figure is 'ust an imaginary one that sits in between the 4 goal and 5 goal marks allowing bettors to bet on both scenarios. The reason this market has become so popular is that people find it easier to predict how many goals will be scored in a match rather than the eventual result. $or e*ample, in a match featuring two very low scoring teams the likelihood is that this trend would continue and goals would be scarce. %n contrast games that feature two free scoring teams would be far more likely to see more than 4 goals scored. %f you can spot a team that is consistently involved in games which feature less than 4.+ goals, it is possible to en'oy a high success rate with this form of soccer betting. There have been many e*amples of outstanding teams who win most of their matches yet still be involved in low scoring encounters. $inding a team who is a good bet for the under7over 4.+ goals markets is not 'ust about how many goals they score. The defensive aspect is e.ually important because how many goals a team concedes also plays a large part in whether or not they are regularly involved in low scoring matches

8o- to select -inning bets" @e are going to concentrate on under 4.+ goals, why> ecause when we bet on under 4.+ goals we are in a winning position right from the off, as a game starts ;-;. %f we back over 4.+ goals then we have to wait for at least 5 goals to be scored, which we don-t really want to do.

The under 2%5 goals s stem3

The key to finding consistent winning bets with the over7under goals market is to find out what a teams defence is like. % know scoring goals also has a great effect but to start with we are looking at the defence of a team. y now you have been placing bets on premier league games and have been studying a lower league and following a lower ranked team, so straight away you should know if your team has a good defensive record or a poor one. There is also lots of stats that are available too us to determine if a team has a good defensive record or not. )ou-ve only got to look at the league table and it tells you how many goals each team has scored and conceded. % have come up with a formula to work from3 For under 2%5 goals -e are loo&ing for one these3 8ome team N poor goal scorers 7 "way team N Hood defensive record 8ome team and away team both have good defensive record 8ome team have a very strong defensive record at home but not a good goal scoring record. " neither team wants to lose situation, e.g. two teams near the bottom of the table. " local derby match, high pressured games(

8ere*s -hat to do" Ho to www.bet5=+.com and find the weekends fi*tures3 8ere are the premier league fi*tures3

Now click on the small image of a graph on the right hand side and you will be shown a page with recent form, league table etc.. )ou want to click the link at the top which says over7under and you will be presented with a table like the one below

This shows us the over7under stats for every team in the league. 6o as we can see, !anchester utd have played ? games in total and = games have gone over 4.+ goals. !anchester utd obviously have the goal scoring power but so far this season have showed a rocky defence, which is why all of their games have been over 4.+ goals. lackpool are top of this chart with as they also have had = games out of ? go over 4.+goals. 6itting at the bottom are Averton, with 'ust 1 game out of ? that has gone over 4.+ goals. This shows that they are very tight at the back but are struggling to score at the minute. %f we look a little closer we can see that "ston Iilla and irmingham both have over 4.+ goals in all of there away games. #k, so you by now you understand the over7unders table and know where to find it. "nother thing you can look at is the league table. % use the < site3 http377news.bbc.co.uk7sport17hi7football7engLprem7table7default.stm

This shows us how many goals each team has scored and conceded both home and away all season.

Kust by looking at these 4 tables you should get an idea of which teams score goals, who has the tightest defence etc.. #k, now we need to find games that are not going to produce many goals. )ou should be able to identify a few possible games 'ust by looking at the fi*tures and then looking at the tables above. 8ere is an e.am!le for the fi.tures on the -ee&end of 3ct 1Eth4 @( am currentl -riting this 2 -ee&s before these games ta&e !laceC% ( -ant to sho- ou this for real and not Fust ma&e u! results or fi. it so that ( shoou e.am!les of onl the -inning bets% ( have no idea if the -ill -in or all lose4 and this boo& -ould have been released before 3ctober 1Eth so it*s im!ossible for me to change this no-% 6o here goes2

8ere are the fi*tures for the 1=th, 1?th and 18th #ctober for the Anglish 0remier 9eague

Kust by having a .uick look through it there are some games we can dismiss. Eemember, we are looking at tight games that won-t produce many goals. "rsenal v irmingham F "rsenal are .uite capable of putting half a doOen goals past anybody on their day, especially at home, and 'ust by looking at the over7under table we can see that 5 out of 5 of irmingham-s away games have gone over 4.+ goals. @e will definitely avoid this one. olton v 6toke F $irst thoughts are that they are 4 physical teams, both capable of grinding out results and keeping clean sheets. @e will look further into this match to see if there is a possible bet. $ulham v Tottenham F 9ondon derby, both teams have had a few games under 4.+ goals already this season and are .uite low down in the over7unders table. @e will look into this further.

!an utd v @est brom F 9ike "rsenal, !an 1 are capable of scoring a lot of goals past anybody, and their defence has not been brilliant so far this season, we can tell 'ust by looking at the over7under table as they currently sit second. @e can dismiss this match Newcastle v @igan F @igan have not actually conceded away from home yet and both of there away games have been under 4.+ goals. @e will look further into this game @olves v @est 8am F This is a bottom of the table clash. Eemember the formula % showed you, and 1 of them was /neither team wants to lose-. @ell this is one of them situations. @e will look into this game further "ston Iilla v <helsea F <helsea have been scoring for fun so far this season. @e can dismiss this game Averton v 9iverpool F ig local derby, neither team will want to lose this match. 9ikely to be a tense game. @e will look further into this game lackpool v !an <ity F lackpool are currently top of the #ver 4.+ goals table. @e will dismiss this match lackburn v 6underland F 8ad 15 games between them which have been under 4.+ goals this season. @e will look into this further

#k, so we have made a .uick evaluation of each match to see which ones we will be investigating further into. The teams highlighted in Eed are the games we have dismissed. This leaves us with = games. The things we are looking out for is the number of goals each team has scored and conceded recently, and who they were against. " team may have had their last = games under 4.+ goals, but if all them matches were 1-1 then this would concern me as it shows they have been scoring and conceding in every game. @e want teams that can keep clean sheets or fail to score goals.

9ets start with Bolton v ,to&e" #n the et5=+ page you need to click on the small graph to the right of the fi*ture, this will bring up the following screen3

8ere we can see the last = results for both olton and 6toke. "s we can see, stoke are pretty consistent with no games showing more than 5 goals and B of the = games have been under 4,+ goals, they have also had a couple of clean sheets. olton-s results are a little more inconsistent with a couple of high scoring games, but look who they were against2. "rsenal and !anchester utd, 4 very good teams who we have said earlier, can score a lot of goals past anybody. 6o if we ignore these 4 matches we can safely say that olton, like 6toke are .uite a tight defensive team. $rom the evidence we have here % will be backing olton v 6toke to be under 4.+ goals. Mrice ;#$ :100 sta&e -ill return :1<5

Hame 43 $ulham v Tottenham F

@e can see that $ulham-s last B games have been under 4.+ goals, so that-s a good sign, and there only high scoring game was against lackpool, who as we know sit top of the over 4.+ goals table. Tottenham-s form is difficult to sum up because there are 4 champions league games and a <arling cup game against "rsenal. 9ooking at the over7under table we can see that $ulham and Tottenham are .uite low down in 1Bth and 1+th, which says more of their games have been under 4.+ goals. This is also a 9ondon derby which neither side will want to lose. "lso, this meeting last season finished ;-; C%t tells you this on the screenshot above but you can-t see it in this image as % could not fit it onD #k, looking at the evidence % am going to give this ago and bet under 4.+ goals at B7+ :1;; stake will return :18;

0ame ; K Newcastle v @igan

"s we can see, Newcastles last 5 games have been over 4.+ goals, however, we can discard the <arling cup match away too <helsea that finished 5 F B as <helsea are a very high scoring team anyway and it was a cup competition. @igan have not had a game over 5 goals and neither have Newcastle after dismissing the <arling cup game too <helsea. @igan sit 19th in the over7under table and have yet to concede away. Newcastle have kept a clean sheet this season and failed to score on 1 occasion. % think this is worth a bet3 Mrice D#11 :100 returns :1<2%<0

Hame B3 @olves v @est 8am F They sit pretty even in the over7under table.

@est hams last 5 premier league games have been under 4.+ goals and the 4 games which went over 4.+ goals were against !an 1 and <helsea. There has been at least 4 goals in all of @olves last = games, which worries me, and @est 8am have only had 1 game in the last = which has produced less than 4 goals. Not many clean sheets about here. "t B7+ % think this is a bit risky and this game could go either way. N# AT

Hame +3 Averton v 9iverpool " big local derby which neither team wants to lose3

"part from their game against !an 1td, Averton havn-t really scored or conceded many goals and sit bottom of the over7under table, which means they have had the most games under 4.+ goals so far this season. 9iverpool-s for is a bit difficult to read as there is a carling cup match and 5 Auropean matches in there. 1sually % would probably leave this match due to 9iverpool-s eratic goal scoring7conceding, but this is definitely a game neither team wants to lose. Not only because of the rivalry between the two teams but they are both near the bottom of the table. 6o because of this, % will back under 4.+ goals. Mrice ;#$ :100 ,ta&e returns :1<5

Hame =3 lackburn v 6underland

%ts one of them matches where both teams have had a lot of under 4.+ goal games, but most of them have seen 4 goals with only 6underland managing a clean sheet. lackburn are not prolific goal scorers and 6underland have a good defensive record, so you would favour under 4.+ goals. ut at 8711 % think % will leave this alone. N# AT

#k, so there we have it. @e have B bets and we are backing them to finish under 4.+ goals. 9ike % said earlier, % have no idea what the outcomes will be and % have not fi*ed it in anyway. They may all win or they may all lose. ut if you stick to this method every week you will definitely see more winners than losers.

6o there you have it, 5 very practical methods for making consistent profits from football betting.

(m!ortant
To make this successful you are going to need a betting bank, now to make the best use of section 1 you are going to need a large betting bank. 6o if you don-t have a large betting bank then you will 'ust have to be patient and build your bank gradually. "lternatively you can take advantage of the bookies offers. "lmost all online bookies offer incentives when you open a new account, such as bet :1;; and get a free :1;; bet. This is a great way to build yourself a betting bank. 8ere is a great system that guarantees you win( %t-s called ookie9oophole and % highly recommend it NAIAE AIAE chase losses2 %f you 'ust lost 1 of your bets, don-t place more money on the ne*t bet. This is a definite N# N#. )ou should decide on a stake that you feel comfortable with. 9ike in the e*amples % showed you in sections 1, % bet :1+; stakes on the /hot- and /strongteams and :4;; stakes if the odds were below 1.4. % stick to this no matter what. %t-s like a business remember2. % recommend you open an account with 0addy0ower as they are one of the best online bookies. <9%<M 8AEA now to open a new account and get a :+; free bet( @hich brings me onto my ne*t point, keep a record of every single bet you place, how much you placed, how much you won7lost and what the score was . This is very important because it tells you e*actly how much you are making and where you are going wrong if you do go wrong. % hope you have en'oyed reading the book and gained a lot of knowledge from it. % urge you to re-read it a couple of times until you fully understand everything. )ou can now become a professional punter and make yourself a nice second income or full income from football.

8ave belief in yourself, make a change. %f you really want to make this work for you then it will. %f you can-t be bothered to put in the effort then you will fail like the ma'ority of punters, the decision is yours( An'oy your profits((((((((((((((
All men dream but not equally. Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds wake in the day to find that it was vanity; but the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they may act their dream with open eyes to make it possible. T.E. Lawrence

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