American Association for Public Opinion Research

Testing Public Opinion Author(s): George Gallup Reviewed work(s): Source: The Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 2, No. 1, Special Supplement: Public Opinion in a Democracy (Jan., 1938), pp. 8-14 Published by: Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2744769 . Accessed: 20/02/2012 13:23
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TESTING

PUBLIC

OPINION

The American Institute Director, GEORGEGALLUP, ofPublicOpinion of the role "devisemeanswhereby thenational analysis Lord Bryce's known."So of public opinionin a democracy will shouldbe quickly thisprobdid he regard He important noteworthy. was particularly is public lem thathe said the nextand final knew thatin no country form of govas in theUnited stagein ourAmerican so powerful opinion wherein ernment would be reached"if the and he saw clearly States, of citizens in willof themajority were fallsshort ruleby publicopinion at all times, ascertainable weakness to become The greatest thiscountry. by public opinion, withoutthe need of its passing of government of ascer- through a bodyof representativessaid,is thedifficulty Bryce without theneedof voting possibly it. taining how inadequate machinery at all." saw clearly Bryce the will A whileago President Roosevelt are the meansof knowing of thepeoplein this said thatthemajority of Americans of themajority Such is the din of voices are in favorof his Courtproposal. couintry. wrotein his book The Was he right or was he wrong? here,Bryce thatit is Commonwealth, American How shallwe interpret the great in the I936 election hard to say which cry prevails- voteregistered of the for Mr. Roosevelt? from thethroats comes Was it a manwhich ofthe date to liberalize thethroats from which many, the Court? Was he it a mandateto continue few. "The organsof opinion," the proas gramof spending? said, "seemalmostas numerous Was it a manare date to revivethe NRA? To disand they thepeoplethemselves, their tribute all engaged in representing a wealth?Or was it merely own viewas thatof the'people.'" tribute to a greatpersonality? out, pointed Bryce Evenan election, Was the greatmajority received couldat bestdo no morethantest by Hoover in I928 a mandateto two retain of opinion between thedivision Prohibition? Was ita mandate leavingun- to continue or threegreat parties, the policiesof the ecothe will of the peoplein nomicroyalists answered of thatgolden eraof And iftheelec- Republicanism? to theissues. respect Or was it merely a on theper- voteto keepoutoftheWhiteHouse tionhappened to depend then a man whose religionand whose of thecandidates, sonalmerits was even morediffi-background interpretation were not approved by cult. manyvoters? it to be one of the believed Bryce A placard whichappeared in one to of thescenes chief of all freenations problems of Of Thee I Singcar-

riedwords more nearly true thanthe portance Facts have been reported. ofthis authors musical comedy prob- havebeengathered, forthepurpose ably suspected. The sign read,"A of establishing on stillother trends, Vote forWintergreen Is a Vote for issueswhichmaybe of national inWintergreen." in the future. Brycebelieved terest James Bryce saidthat thenext and that the will of the public should finalstagein our democracy would notonly that itshould be known,but be reached ifthewillofthemajority be quickly known. Withitspresent ofcitizens wereto become ascertain- organization, of Pubthe Institute able at all times. lic Opinionis equippedto make a With the development of the complete nationalpoll in a period scienceof measuringpublic opinion, of ten days; and if the need were withbutfewquali- urgent, it can be stated thistimecould be reduced thatthisstagein our de- to three fications, days. is rapidly It mocracy beingreached. How accurate have been the Inis now possible to ascertain, witha stitute's as measuredby findings highdegreeof accuracy, the views election havethe returns: how often of the peopleon all national issues. Institute's polls on issues foretold As evidence, let me cite the work comingevents? A briefaccount of of theAmerican Institute of Public themajor issues covered these during Opinion. willhelpanswer thisquestwoyears or- tion. The Institute is a fact-finding in the ganizationwhich functions issues on One of thefirst national in muchthesame whichtheInstitute realmof opinion had to reported way as the AssociatedPress, the do with old-agepensions and the UnitedPress,and the InternationalTownsend Our findings movement. in therealm showed that whereasthe country News Service function Like thesepressservices, was overwhelmingly of events. in favor ofoldtheworkof theInstitute is entirely age pensions, a politically insignifiunderwritten by a groupof leading cant number were in favorof the newspapers-newspapers whichrep- Townsendprogram. Our report on resent every shadeof political belief. thisissuemadein January 1936 met Duringthelasttwoyears theIn- witha largemeasure of skepticism, stitute of Public Opinionhas con- but subsequent events, particularly ducted a continuousday-by-day, thefallelection the returns, proved censusof the public accuracy week-by-week of thisforecast. mind. The view of hundredsof I936, the InstiEarlyin January thousands of voters of the country tuteshowedthattheAAA was opon more than 300 different issues posed by 59 votersin everyioo. have beencanvassed in thisperiod. Even the ruralareasof the Middle Findingson issues of current im- Westwerealmost divided on evenly

themerits of thisNew Deal act de- Liberals. In the fall electionthe spite whatseemed to be contrary evi- Roosevelt increased vote in theSouth dencesupplied by thecorn-hog ref- in 479 counties,but declinedin erendum amongfarmers. Since the nearlytwiceas many-8ii. country did nothavean opportunity During the closingdays of the to vote on this issue, it is impossible Presidential the Republicampaign to know the accuracy of the Insti- cans madea strong on bid forvotes tute'sresults. Analysisof the No- the "pay-roll tax," the administravemberelectionreturnsprovides, tion's social security measure.Lithowever, one interesting bit of evi- tledidthey than that more recognize dence indicating the lack of enthu- twoout of every in the voters three siasmforthismeasure:the Roose- countryfavoredthis far-reaching veltvotewas smaller in I936 as com- New Deal act. In the verycities pared with I932 in approximately weretrying wherethe Republicans of all ruralcounties three-fourths of hardest to usethisissueto winvotes, the country. Whereasthe Republi- the social security act was overcanscarried in the whelmingly onlyI2I counties in some inapproved, Middle West in I932, theycarried stances in by as manyas 85 voters nearly twicethatnumber (235) in every ioo. Is thereany wonder that I936. gainedvotesdailyduring Roosevelt The likelihood of a splitwithin thisattack even which on a measure the ranksof the Democratic party therankand fileof theRepublicans lines was approved? along conservative-liberal in thevoteon many indicated clearly At a timewhenFatherCoughlin issues (includingrelief,spending, in weretalking and Dr. Townsend of agriculgovernment regulation termsof a thirdpartybacked by tureand industry, and otherNew of the Institute voters, Deal policies)reported bytheInsti- 25,000,000 on the Public Opinion estimated, tute. It was more foretold directly by of a poll reported a yearago in which bases of its polls, a following before the elecdays Two Ioo,ooo. voters had a chance to classify themselvesas Conservatives or Liberals. tion the Institutepredictedthat The significant factrevealed by the Lemkewouldpoll only2.2 percent received vote. He actually poll was thatnearly 40 per centof ofthetotal cent. I.9 per all voters who casttheir ballots for theelection forecast The Institute Rooseveltregardedthemselves as givinghim Roosevelt, conservatives. The South, whose of President votemajority. electoral Senators and Representatives de. a substantial forty serted theNew Deal on many issues The finalpoll gave Roosevelt votes; it in thelast session of Congress, split stateswith 485 electoral between fifty-fifty Conservatives and failed to give him six additional

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states, which he carried, with 46 electoralvotes. In addition to these forecasts the in nine Institutehas made forecasts other state elections, all of which have been correct. This evidence of accuracy is not presentedhere in a spiritof boastfulness,but merelyto indicate how far the science of measuringpublic opinion has developed. I have said on many occasionsthat I do not believe that any great social good comes frombeing able to predictan hoursin advance. electionforty-eight But I do see the value of elections in determining the accuracyof methods used in measuringpublic opinion; for if the methods are not acan election, curatein forecasting they will probablyprove equally inaccurate in measuringpublic opinion on national issues. The two great issues of this year have been labor disordersand the President's proposal to enlarge the Supreme Court. What have the Institute'spolls showed on these two national questions? The drive to organize labor in and the use of the many industries, new weapon-the sit-downstrikeexample of provide an interesting how public opinion changes. At the beginning of the year a great maof people throughout thecounjority to labor unions. trywere sympathetic Six months later labor had gained but at the expenseof many victories, much public sympathy, particularly in the middle classes.

Continuouslyduring this period the Institute of Public Opinion covered the public's attitudeon various phases of the labor question-the

split between the C.I.O. and A.F.

of L., the General Motorsstrike, the public's attitudetoward laws regulating and curbingunions. More than anythingelse the use of the sit-downstrikealienated the sympathiesof the middle classes. When the General Motorsstrikebegan, for example,only a slightmajorityof persons(53 per cent) symAs the pathized with the employers. strikeprogressedand as the public had time to forman opinion of sitdown strikes,the percentage who took the side of the employersincreased steadily.At the end of the strike62 per cent of all people took the side of the companywhereas 38 per centtook the side of the strikers. Two-thirds of the voters of the country bIieved that sit-down strikesshould be made illegal, and believe that authe same proportion thorities should use forcein removing sit-down strikers.At the close of the period of intensiveorganizathe Intion of labor and of strikes, stitutefound the public overwhelmingly of the opinion that labor unions should be regulated by the should be required to government, incorporate. one of the groups Significantly, found most hostileto labor was the group composed of farmers-with whom labor hopeseventually to form a political party.

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The SupremeCourt issue is a limitingof the Supreme Court's with its of the confusion power,to any tampering illustration perfect to Conshalt not' to say'thou to readtoo right an attempt follows which President." It is at gressand to the returns. muchinto election had thePresident point Up to this of example thesametimea perfect standon the in a democracy not takena definite whyit is essential, On February 5 thePresissue. to be able to knowthe Court suchas ours, the full weightof his will of the peopleon any givenis- identthrew behinda proposal greatpopularity sue,at anygiventime. theCourtbyenlarging Farleysaid: to liberalize A while ago James Withhis to fifteen. are for its membership "The peopleof thiscountry of a plan to it personalsponsorship whatever program the Roosevelt the Court,what position is. They are fortheCourtprogram liberalize of the nationtakeit." would voters proposed becausethe President him for whovoted those himself The President morerecently particularly of the in the fallelection? has said that the majority made his proposal people favor his Court proposal. The President Withina few What are the viewsof the people? on Fridaymorning. was machinery 1935, the hoursthe Institute's as November As early to takea national poll learnedin one of its na- setin motion Institute ofthefirst poll tional polls that 63 in everyIOO on thisissue.Results in everyIoo opwithviewson thisissuewere showed53 voters voters plan. In of the posed to the President's thepower to curbing opposed changed pollsthisfigure Court.The samepoll was subsequent Supreme the just before in December1936.A ma- to 52, and in April, repeated to 5!. When against WagnerAct decision, joritywas again registered to laborand favorable ofthe thisdecision, thepower or limiting curbing down, un- to theNew Deal, was handed actsofCongress Court todeclare and the percentchanged of De- the trend In our report constitutional. to thePresiopposed cember13, we said: "In the next age of persons to 53. With there is almost dent's plan increased sessionof Congress Van Devanter'sresignation fora consti- Justice to be agitation certain had ofvoters opposed to curtailthe thepercentage amendment tutional or in to increased to ioo, every AlCourt. 58 of Supreme the power almost the same as was a it point of a number it that is reported ready a bloc to in Decemberbeforethe President Senatorsare organizing his own plan forlibIf such a had sponsored amendment. for an fight the Court. eralizing chances its . . . measureis passed stillbeby the votersof The President apparently of being ratified of voters the that lieves majority the nationwould be slim. A maIn fact to his favorable are program. are opposedto any of voters jority

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one of is revealed he has intimated thathe willrenew Here certainly deof our weaknesses his fight to enlargethe Court.Do the greatest of the basic is evidence Here thevoters of the country wanthim mocracy. that assertion The Institute of Lord Bryce's thisfight? to renew .s truth of in thedevelopment presently engaged in polling the thenextstate formof government on thisquestion. The first the American country if thewill of the returns look as if the country by a wouldbe reached ascertainable is ready to "call peoplewereto become thumping majority The Institute at all times. the wholethingoff." of publicopinan interesting The measurement has discovered factin to questhe course of its SupremeCourt ion need not be confined It polls; it has discovered thatovera tionsof government and politics. thirdof the peoplewho votedfor is equallyusefulin the fieldof sohis cial problems. I believethatwhen lastfallare against thePresident which plan. And yetvirtually all of these fulluse is madeofprocedures areenthusiastically for have beendeveloped samepersons it will be posRoosevelt today. sibleto speedup thewholeprogram Standard calls of social welfare. political procedure Let me cite one formaking theSupreme Courtone example. oftheissues in theforthcoming ConFor manyyearsthe word"syphIn fact, gressional campaign. former ilis" was bannedfrom manypubliPresident Hooverhas madethissug- cations, thought becausetheeditors and the President gestion, himself, thatdecent peopledid notwantto his last talk,appears talkabout judgingfrom it.Months ago we learned, to carry theissueintothecam- in thecourse ready pollson this of taking paign. issue,thatthe publicnot onlywas What will happen?If President readyto discussfreely the problem Roosevelt retains his present great ofvenereal thepubdiseases butthat popularity,the Democrats will lic in its thinking far had traveled emerge againfrom theelections with beyond of in the matter legislators a substantial majority, if somewhat publiccontrol of thesediseases. smaller than 1936. examplein Let me cite another If the Court proposalhas been a different We knowthatcerfield. madean issuein thecampaign, the tain prejudices existamongProtesDemocrats, and in factmostpeople, tantsand Catholics How and Jews. willregard itas a mandate toenlarge can we deal effectively with these theCourt, thefactthatpeo- prejudices despite unlesswe know a great ple mayholdthesameviewsat that deal more about them? Why do time as they do today. The President theyexist? Where do theyexist? will surely regardit as a mandate What is the trend-are relations or to enlargethe Court. among thesegroupsimproving

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worse?I'he same the SupremeCourt and the local growing are they which has been devel- police court.And we have found machinery opedto learntheviewsofthepublic stillothers who believethatsteriland socialissuescan be izingtheunfit on political them meanswashing in thisfield, withtheright usedwithequal success kindof soap! in myopinion. for a But this is unimportant, thecoun- democracy of polling In thecourse dependsfor good govis- ernment hundred tryon morethanthree judgment on thecollective to arrive of the majority. sues,it has been possible I would not argue regard- thattheviewsof the common basedon facts at conclusions peoof the mass of ple alwaysprovide ing the intelligence the bestanswer representavoters.The Institute's Buton the question. to anynational to all classes basisof the evidence tivesare dailytalking whichtheInin every oftheunion stitute state of society has amassedduringthe last share-crop-to personson relief, two yearsI have come to believe which farmers, merchants,absolutely bricklayers, pers, in the statement Whatevidence Theodore Roosevelt once made: housewives, teachers. peoplearecapable "The majority that these is there of plain people of of self-government? the UnitedStateswill,day in and in public day out, make fewermistakes Sir RobertPeel described of governing themselvesthan any opinionas "a greatcompound folly,weakness,prejudice,wrong smaller class or groupof men will them." and obstinacy, to govern feeling, right feeling, makein trying public could measuring We of The science paragraphs." newspaper a definiMany such in its infancy. over a month is only quarrel opinion I see proceas to be learned; point, tion.The important havestill things We are public dures must be developed. it, is not what constitutes stage.But opinion, stillin the experimental public butwhether opinion, opin- of one thingwe can be absolutely and by thisI mean majority that is certain, and thatis, withmanyof ion, adds up to something and social sound. our leadingpsychologists in the problem on thecollec- scientists Democracy depends interested exwith growing of the people; it of measurement, tive intelligence as be perienceof such organizations thatevery voter does notrequire With a corpsof inter- our own,it will notbe longbefore intelligent. confidence of all we can say withutmost dailyaskingquestions viewers is in a goodposi- thatthe finalstagein the developtheInstitute kinds, as described ofourdemocracy, how ment tionto knowhow ill-informed, the hasbeenreached-that how stupid are some byBryce, prejudiced, can of citizens who will of themajority persons voters. We havefound at all times. do notknowthedifference between be ascertained

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