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Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

2014 Global Asset Management Education IV


Conference notes David J. Moore, Ph.D.

www.efcientminds.com

March 28, 2014

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Outline
1 2

Introduction Global economy Global-ness, economic drivers, energy, and more! Alternative assets vs. equities Why, some examples, etc. Other keynote sessions Fed & Washington perspective (TK) Corporate governance Global markets Breakout sessions I Virtus: Search for growth Real assets Is it time to buy or bail? Breakout sessions II Future of Quant Financial services

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Common themes from various presenters

Know the answer to How much can I lose? Market has not yet peaked but is getting close. Moderate economic growth ahead. Be mindful of policy impact on investing. The middle class is struggling and shrinking. Consider investing in Europe. Be wary of emerging markets. Technicals do matter. Math skills are needed but unfortunately lacking in current college graduates.

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Global-ness, economic drivers, energy, and more!

Outline
1 2

Introduction Global economy Global-ness, economic drivers, energy, and more! Alternative assets vs. equities Why, some examples, etc. Other keynote sessions Fed & Washington perspective (TK) Corporate governance Global markets Breakout sessions I Virtus: Search for growth Real assets Is it time to buy or bail? Breakout sessions II Future of Quant Financial services

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Global-ness, economic drivers, energy, and more!

Global-ness
Accuracy of growth rates domestically and overseas.
Follow numbers from non-China sources for import/export numbers. (JS) Tend not to believe economic statistics from communist dictators. (DC)

Future ination since long term rates have risen. Where do corporate prots originate, domestic or abroad? For instance, many prots of S&P500 companies are made overseas.
Nearly half of S&P500 revenues come from abroad. (BD) The disconnect between S&P500 and US economic growth could be attributed to signicant non-US revenues. (BD, JS)

USD/Japan and other exchange rates are volatile.


DJM: Be careful when valuing US companies. What percentage of their revenues are in foreign currencies? If signicant you are exposed to exchange rate risk.

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Global-ness, economic drivers, energy, and more!

Economic drivers

$7 Trillion in cash is on the sidelines. (BD)


Investors have been fearful and missed out on market gains. Consider Global REITs

Beige Book: comments on the economy from the Fed. Orange Book: comments on the economy based on earnings calls and conversations with executives.
Compare comments in this book with your analysis of a given company.

Middle income earners drive the economy.


Unfortunately signicant middle class underemployment NINJA (No income, no job or assets) loans, i.e. student loans, are looming large.

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Global-ness, economic drivers, energy, and more!

Energy

Energy is a competitive weapon. Prediction: US will be net exporter by end of 2015 driven largely by energy. (BD) Weightings: underweight integrated oil companies, overweight US. (BD) Demand for energy is overstated but still part of the growth picture. (RY) Who benets from lower energy prices? (JS) Differential US/Global prices for energy may not be sustainable. (JS) Energy is a source of growth over next

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Global-ness, economic drivers, energy, and more!

Growth over next 10 years


Growth is hard to nd without emerging market growth. Consider MNCs that are involved in emerging markets. (BD) Emerging market share of economy has risen. (BD) The aging population is the #1 issue with regards to US growth. (JS) The US markets have risen due partly to cutting of labor costs. However, as you cut labor costs you also cut consumption dollars. (RY) Frontier economies look safer due to better debt/GDP ratios. (BD) Orange book had 322 mentions of weather in current edition. (RY) Companies will use weather as an excuse. Investors must take time to separate the signal from the noise. (BD)

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Global-ness, economic drivers, energy, and more!

Housing

Record low mortgage rates but no signicant growth in housing is a concern. (RY) The secondary market will continue to exist with some government involvement. (JS) Single family home occupancy has been falling. We are more of an apartment society. (JS) Townhouse/condos: less lumber but really nice kitchens and bathrooms. Who is making this stuff? (JS) People cant buy homes become income has fallen. (RY) Short home builders. The quantity and quality of buyers is a concern. (BD)

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Global-ness, economic drivers, energy, and more!

Monetary policy, etc.


Rising rates will be good for the economy. QE was hiding problems in the market. (DC) People searched and stretched for yield. Seek total return not just yield. However, munis look attractive. (BD) Regarding the Euro, academics predicted that one monetary policy with multiple scal polices would not work. (BD) Without Germany the Eurozone collapses. (DC) When economic indicators are suspect, change what you look at. Jobless claims, manufacturing purchases, and factory orders are all relevant. (JS) Corporate prots are the true bottom line. (DC) Be mindful of government involvement in biotech companies. (JS)

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Global-ness, economic drivers, energy, and more!

The middle class, etc.

NINJA loans are the next subprime crisis. (RY) Choose the right major to maximize ROI. College is not a right. (JS) An interesting exchange...
The shrinking middle class is a problem. (RY) Retail sales are up. There is no middle class problem. (DC) Retail is up but what retail? Neiman Marcus, Mortons Steakhouse, Ruths Chris. Comment from the Orange Book from Oliver Garden: 70K guy is not coming in anymore.

Biggest personal mistakes: too focused on valuation (BD), hedge fund at the wrong time (DC), not talking to clothing company contact (RY), failure to stay up to date on great ideas (JS)

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Why, some examples, etc.

Outline
1 2

Introduction Global economy Global-ness, economic drivers, energy, and more! Alternative assets vs. equities Why, some examples, etc. Other keynote sessions Fed & Washington perspective (TK) Corporate governance Global markets Breakout sessions I Virtus: Search for growth Real assets Is it time to buy or bail? Breakout sessions II Future of Quant Financial services

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Why, some examples, etc.

Why the need for alternative assets?

During the 80s and 90s stocks and bonds had positive correlation s,b > 0. However, 7 or 8 years ago1 s,b < 0 and s,alt > 0. During 1994 to 2004 the correlation between stocks and commodities was zero s,comm = 0 but commodity performance was poor. Now, s,comm = 0.4. (BP)
Low correlation leads to risk mitigating impact. Positive returns leads to return enhancing impact.

If < 0 you are effectively deleveraging your portfolio. Expecting prior losers such as volatility arbitrage to outperform going forward. (MK)

1I

believe he meant the past 7 to 8 years.

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Why, some examples, etc.

Alternative asset choices


Options have become more mainstream. Options may be more efcient for portfolios < $15, 000. (JK)
Consider the use of options in your personal portfolio. On the way up, varies. On the way down, everything is correlated.

REITs and commodities may be more correlated to the stock market now than in the past. (BP) Return on capital is highest where capital is scarce. Be the only bank in town. Current E [R ] estimates are too high. (RB) Bearish on emerging markets. US small caps have a better future growth story when looking at the nancials. (RB) There is a distinction between anti-correlated and negatively correlated. (MK) Bitcoin is not a currency. It is possibly a means for transactions. (RB) GLD and SLV are fairly priced. Natural gas is tougher to value (storage, use, production, volatility). (MK)

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Why, some examples, etc.

More alternative asset vehicles


Long/short strategies are making their way to mutual funds for retail investors. (BP) On ESG (Environment, Social, Governance) investing
ESG investing is becoming more mainstream. There are some ESG funds that meet benchmark returns. (BP) Has seen mixed results on ESG. The goal is to maximize returns unless otherwise specied.

Expect to see hiring pickup as clarity on healthcare plan impact is improved. Be mindful of policy implications on investing. (MK) On using derivatives to protect downside. (BP)
Initial thought: best defense is well diversied portfolio. Now: Some protection via derivatives may be a good idea.

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Why, some examples, etc.

Private equity and more


Hard to argue that private equity is the right asset class for clients given liquidity, fees, and other issues. (RB) Deutsch Bank is creating products that are more liquid. It was difcult to attract investment in 2009. (BP)
DJM: He did not address the fees for these more liquid private equity products.

VIX is a derivative of a derivative and negatively correlated to the market. (JK) Concerned about xed income. This could be addressed with a portion of your equity portfolio. (BP) Uncertainty equals opportunity. It is tough for nancial managers to advise agains investing at or near peaks. Clients wants equity. Firm wants equity. Advisor knows it is high. (RB)

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Why, some examples, etc.

Some advice

Investors lose 2% to 5% per year trying to time the market. Dont try to time the market. (RB) Focus on what things are worth, not what you think others think. Consider risk vs. reward. (MK) Consider What can I lose on this trade? Learn how to not lose money. (JK) S&P500 target is 1925 for 2014. Invest, dont trade. (RB) Ignore the noise. If you can trade your own P&L do it. (MK) Dont ght the fed. (BP)

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Fed & Washington perspective (TK)

Outline
1 2

Introduction Global economy Global-ness, economic drivers, energy, and more! Alternative assets vs. equities Why, some examples, etc. Other keynote sessions Fed & Washington perspective (TK) Corporate governance Global markets Breakout sessions I Virtus: Search for growth Real assets Is it time to buy or bail? Breakout sessions II Future of Quant Financial services

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Fed & Washington perspective (TK)

Central banks, China, America

The central bank will always matter. Something articial is going on in China. Google ghost towns and China. We dont know what would have happened without fed intervention in the Great Recession. Can part time America move to full time America? Read executive summaries from the CBO. Find May 2003 Ben Bernanke lecture in Japan.

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Corporate governance

Outline
1 2

Introduction Global economy Global-ness, economic drivers, energy, and more! Alternative assets vs. equities Why, some examples, etc. Other keynote sessions Fed & Washington perspective (TK) Corporate governance Global markets Breakout sessions I Virtus: Search for growth Real assets Is it time to buy or bail? Breakout sessions II Future of Quant Financial services

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Corporate governance

Problems with share repurchases

Company doesnt know what to do with capital: no projects to invest in. Repurchases makes the what do I do with non-retained earnings? decision for shareholders as opposed to just paying dividends. Companies may buy high and sell low. There are better uses of capital DJM: Berkshire Hathaway does not pay dividends. They do repurchase shares. See my website for the dividend vs. repurchase choice.

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Corporate governance

Voting rights

If you own $2,000 of stock you can voice your opinion. Right now this is a burden. Small shareholders do have a voice but 90% of their initiatives are shot down. Look up shareholder-board engagement issues. Not worried about concentration of voting rights. Vote with your feet. (EK) Believe in 1 vote per share
Dual class share companies have underperformed single-class If you separate ownership for control there better be a good reason

Any ESG compliant version of VTI? Perhaps EAPS.

Introduction Global markets

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Outline
1 2

Introduction Global economy Global-ness, economic drivers, energy, and more! Alternative assets vs. equities Why, some examples, etc. Other keynote sessions Fed & Washington perspective (TK) Corporate governance Global markets Breakout sessions I Virtus: Search for growth Real assets Is it time to buy or bail? Breakout sessions II Future of Quant Financial services

Introduction Global markets

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Timing
Buy into the panic. Sell into the rally. (AC)
Buy when the worst case is priced in. Sell when the best case is priced in. Today: best case is not priced in. Good times are over for xed income

There are two ways to make money. (DK)


Play against prejudice and emotion Recognize when markets are distorted. For instance, markets are stacked against savers (no deposit interest) and for investors (S&P500 up 30% last year).

Monetary policy needs to get back to normal to avoid another asset bubble. Look to investing in Europe. Do what you love and the money will nd you. How can the Fed actions end well?

Introduction Global markets

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Historical context
March 2009 was a generational low. Not close to a bubble phase yet. Trillions of dollars are on the sidelines. On the US loss of leadership (AC)
We were #1 in innovation for the last 3 generations. 1960s: golden age of economic growth. Long-term investment in research and education totaled 4.5% of GDP. Today it is 2.5% of GDP. Before: 40% of prots2 were spent on R&D. Now: 25-30% of prots are spent on R&D. There were 3X more STEM degrees in the 1960s than today. Now we have very poor math and science literacy. Americans dont believe anything (a spiritual reference I believe).

We need to spend more on education. (AC)


2 or

was that revenues?

Introduction Global markets

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Miscellaneous comments

Int he US 35% of total capital spending vs by energy companies. Energy investment by country
US: $140B Russia: $10B Saudi: $5B

What causes rates to go up? (AC)


Ination Fed action because economy is gaining traction.

DJM: be mindful of which factor(s) is(are) at play as rates go up. Consider Europe, not emerging markets. (DD, asset allocation breakout session)

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Virtus: Search for growth

Outline
1 2

Introduction Global economy Global-ness, economic drivers, energy, and more! Alternative assets vs. equities Why, some examples, etc. Other keynote sessions Fed & Washington perspective (TK) Corporate governance Global markets Breakout sessions I Virtus: Search for growth Real assets Is it time to buy or bail? Breakout sessions II Future of Quant Financial services

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Virtus: Search for growth

Search for growth 1/3


The Virtus presentation is available at virtus.com. Growth can be organic (internal) or inorganic (from buying companies). Make sure you have the evidence to support investment decisions. Was the weather a problem? The evidence suggests yes, a temporary problem. Opinion: high frequency trading (HFT) is here to stay. Investment decisions need to consider three things: (1) fundamentals, (2) technical, (3) impact of HFT. History repeats itself. Look for years that correlate with current years.
Consider super-bull markets: 1949 (7.1y), 1974 (6.2y), 1990 (9.5y)

Every day in 2013 the S&P closed higher than corresponding day in 2012.

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Virtus: Search for growth

Search for growth 2/3


Expect a dip in April as a result of reduced earnings due to weather. A good trader is mindful of when to exit. E.g., if below the 200 day moving average for a sustained period. Know what you can lose. VIX in the mid 20s means something. (DJM: I am not sure what) The market wants Japan to confront ination head on. David Darsts presentation has 2.4% as the expected 2014 ination in Japan. Recommendation: invest in hedge funds when market valuations are rich. Tailwinds: prot margins, spending on growth (CapEx and R&D). Brazil is not currently investable. Russia is never investable. India and China are part of the conversation.

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Virtus: Search for growth

Search for growth 3/3


The summer 2014 correction will be an opportunity. Healthcare growth evidence: (1) Sales growth rate 5%+, (2) Stock returns up, (3) Biotech is in growth mode M&A activity is up a lot in 2014 ISM manufacturing index is recovering Recovery in Europe is strong
Spains 10 year treasury dropped from 7% in 2012 to ~4% now. German unemployment at 20 year low.

What about Japanese REITs? Q: Is EPS growth due to share buybacks? A: Not worried about it due to CapEx and R&D. Pay attention to institutional money ow. Brazil is overextended w/ 2016 events, scal mess, government mess.

Introduction Real assets

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Outline
1 2

Introduction Global economy Global-ness, economic drivers, energy, and more! Alternative assets vs. equities Why, some examples, etc. Other keynote sessions Fed & Washington perspective (TK) Corporate governance Global markets Breakout sessions I Virtus: Search for growth Real assets Is it time to buy or bail? Breakout sessions II Future of Quant Financial services

Introduction Real assets

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Real assets

Main property types: Ofce, Apartment, Retail, Industrial Value property based on achievable income over next 5 to 10 years and cost of capital. Buy in places with net positive population migration. (DJM: dont buy in Detroit then!) Three primary valuation methods
1

2 3

Discounted cash ow considering what you can sell at end of planned holding period. 10 years for core holding, 5 year for value add, 3 to 5 year for opportunistic. Capitalization rate Comparables - adjust for different factors

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Is it time to buy or bail?

Outline
1 2

Introduction Global economy Global-ness, economic drivers, energy, and more! Alternative assets vs. equities Why, some examples, etc. Other keynote sessions Fed & Washington perspective (TK) Corporate governance Global markets Breakout sessions I Virtus: Search for growth Real assets Is it time to buy or bail? Breakout sessions II Future of Quant Financial services

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Is it time to buy or bail?

Buy or bail 1/2


We can be impatient, indecisive, fearful, and greedy. Fundamentals: why? Technical: when and how far? Good years tend to follow great years. Market drops of 10% are usually due to an unanticipated event. If you dont have 14 months to break-even you should not be in the market. Since 1948 P/E averaged 17.4 and CPI 1.6% Fed model tidbit: when E /P R10yr > 0 the average 12 month subsequent market return has been 14%. Rule of 20: stocks are fairly valued when P /E + CPI = 20. More information: see the spindices website and select additional information then index earnings.

Introduction

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Is it time to buy or bail?

Buy or bail 2/2


You can use the Rule of 20 to forecast the year end S&P level given
Estimated/forecasted earnings. Available from the index earnings mentioned on previous slide. Forecasted ination. You can obtain this from the TIPS-Treasury differential.

January top gaining sub-industries provide some information on next 11 months. 72% of the time Nov-Apr outperformed May-Oct but May-Oct is still up 1.3%. In May-Oct Consumer staples (4.6%) and Healthcare (4.6%) lead. 40% of S&P500 returns is from reinvested dividends. We are currently below the historical average dividend payout ratio. -> look to dividend aristocrats.

Introduction Future of Quant

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Outline
1 2

Introduction Global economy Global-ness, economic drivers, energy, and more! Alternative assets vs. equities Why, some examples, etc. Other keynote sessions Fed & Washington perspective (TK) Corporate governance Global markets Breakout sessions I Virtus: Search for growth Real assets Is it time to buy or bail? Breakout sessions II Future of Quant Financial services

Introduction Future of Quant

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Quant investing 1/2


The presenters were part of a 20 person team at Oppenheimer managing $15B. HFT is a different type of quantitative (quant) approach that is highly competitive. Inputs Price and volume Price, volume, fundamentals Price, volume, fundamentals Time horizon s, ns daily weekly, monthly, quarterly

HFT MFT LFT

Read Advancing strategic allocation in a multi-factor world Read How Index Trading Increases Market Vulnerability correlations have increased.

Introduction Future of Quant

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Quant investing 2/2

Most large cap stocks underperform the large cap stock universe. A handful of good active managers with concentrated portfolios outperform the market (Cremers and Petajsto 2009) On the what can you lose tip: What could go wrong? DJM: Therefore diversication can be bad. This is similar in spirit to Yacktmans suggestion that you need not own your 500th best pick. Low volatility stocks have negative correlation with low P/B stocks (Empirical Research Partners December 3, 2012). The best way to generate alpha is to develop your own dataset.

Introduction Financial services

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Outline
1 2

Introduction Global economy Global-ness, economic drivers, energy, and more! Alternative assets vs. equities Why, some examples, etc. Other keynote sessions Fed & Washington perspective (TK) Corporate governance Global markets Breakout sessions I Virtus: Search for growth Real assets Is it time to buy or bail? Breakout sessions II Future of Quant Financial services

Introduction Financial services

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Financial Services 1/4


Be mindful of the distinction between nancial services and asset management. DJM: how about long/short rental/single family products? Chicago is not as fast paced as NY. EY advisory business is picking up with new regulations: Dodd-Frank, Basel III, etc. Structured nance: help banks bring structured nance products to market. Also includes asset valuation. Audit: interact with more parties than structured nance. Assurance: fancy word for audit. I heard someone say VBM guys and this validates teaching Value Based Management in my MBA class! Should I use Olive Garden or Radio Shack in VBM lectures?

Introduction Financial services

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Financial Services 2/4


Majority of their time is spent getting comfortable with valuation and existence of assets. Again: understand the risk another reason to calculate VaR. They do go look at commercial properties when they are underlying assets of nancial products. Not so much with structured products that have 10,000 single family homes. Cant provide audit and valuation for the same customer. VISA has $10B in goodwill on its balance sheet. EY helps companies come up with that value. Basel III takes effect 2015. It will increase the amount of liquid assets to be held in reserves. It will require rms to devote more human capital to compliance. All of the complex assets that banks had to unload went to hedge funds.

Introduction Financial services

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Financial services 3/4


A CPA is required for Audit and you cant make manager without it. CFA not needed for manager but helps when interacting with hedge funds. EY manager has not had a car in 7 years in NY. In NY you choose not to have a family, not to sleep, to pay a lot to live here. If you want to work in any industry you must put the time in and have a positive attitude. Never underestimate the power of networking. 120 in starting class at EY 7 years ago. 20 remain today. Excel skills are lacking but needed.

Introduction Financial services

Global economy

Alternative assets vs. equities

Other keynote sessions

Breakout sessions I

Breakout sessions II

Financial services 4/4

Get good grades, get good with computer (Word, Excel, Powerpoint, etc.) Dont be afraid to ask questions. When I need something done I go to my Excel expert. Hes accurate, capable, and gets things done fast. Become known for something. Develop a roadmap with a timeline. Acknowledge areas of weakness.

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