Chapter 4

Introduction to Probability

Chapter 4 Introduction to Probability

Case Problem: Hamilton County Judges
The data in the table provides the basis for the analysis. We provide notes as a guide to answering questions 1 through 5. 1. The conditional probabilities of cases being appealed in the three courts are given in the 3 Total rows in the table. For Common Pleas Court, the probability of an appeal is .0401; for Domestic Relations Court, the probability of an appeal is .00348; and for Municipal Court, the probability of an appeal is .00461. Appeals are much more likely in Common Pleas Court. But, even there, only 1 in 25 cases are appealed. The unconditional probability of an appeal across all 3 courts is (1762 + 106 + 500)/(43,945 + 30,499 + 108,464) = .0129. 2. The probability of a case being appealed for each judge is given in column 5 of the table. Judges Winkler, Panioto and Grady have the lowest probability of appeal for Common Pleas, Domestic Relations and Municipal Courts respectively. The probability of a case being reversed for each judge is given in column 7 of the table. Judges Winkler, Panioto and Grady/Hair have the lowest probability of reversal for Common Pleas, Domestic Relations and Municipal Courts respectively. These are the probabilities for reversal for all cases disposed of, not just the ones appealed. The probability of a reversal given an appeal for each judge is given in column 9 of the table. Judges Nurre, Panioto and Grady/Hair have the lowest probability of reversal for Common Pleas, Domestic Relations and Municipal Courts respectively. We describe here how The Cincinnati Enquirer used this data to rank the judges. Other approaches may also be valid, but a rationale should be provided. The newspaper provided ranking for each judge within each of the courts on percentage of cases appealed, percentage of cases reversed and percentage of appealed cases reversed. Those rankings were the same as the ones we have computed based on probabilities in columns 6, 8 and 10 of the table. Then they summed the 3 rankings to come up with a total ranking for each judge. We provide those total ranks in column 11 of the table. Judge Winkler is the highest ranked judge in Common Pleas Court, Judge Panioto is the highest ranked judge in Domestic Relations Court and Judge Grady is the highest ranked judge in Municipal Court.

3.

4.

5.

CP - 15

Chapter 4

Introduction to Probability

Common Pleas Court Total Cases Disposed

Appealed Cases

Reversed Cases

Conditional Probability of Reversal Given Appeal

Judge Fred Cartolano Thomas Crush Patrick Dinkelacker Timothy Hogan Robert Kraft William Mathews William Morrissey Norbert Nadel Arthur Ney, Jr. Richard Niehaus Thomas Nurre John O'Connor Robert Ruehlman J. Howard Sundermann Jr. Ann Marie Tracey Ralph Winkler Total

3037 137 3372 119 1258 44 1954 60 3138 127 2264 91 3032 121 2959 131 3219 125 3353 137 3000 121 2969 129 3205 145 955 60 3141 127 3089 88 43945 1762

12 10 8 7 7 18 22 20 14 16 6 12 18 10 13 6 199

0.04511 0.03529 0.03498 0.03071 0.04047 0.04019 0.03991 0.04427 0.03883 0.04086 0.04033 0.04345 0.04524 0.06283 0.04043 0.02849 0.0401

14 4 3 2 10 7 6 13 5 11 8 12 15 16 9 1

0.00395 0.00297 0.00636 0.00358 0.00223 0.00795 0.00726 0.00676 0.00435 0.00477 0.00200 0.00404 0.00562 0.01047 0.00414 0.00194 0.00453

6 4 12 5 3 15 14 13 9 10 2 7 11 16 8 1

0.08759 0.08403 0.18182 0.11667 0.05512 0.19780 0.18182 0.15267 0.11200 0.11679 0.04959 0.09302 0.12414 0.16667 0.10236 0.06818 0.11294

5 4 14 9 2 16 14 12 8 10 1 6 11 13 7 3

Domestic Relations Court Total Cases Disposed

Appealed Cases

Reversed Cases

Conditional Probability of Reversal Given Appeal

Judge Penelope Cunningham Patrick Dinkelacker Deborah Gaines Ronald Panioto Total

2729 6001 8799 12970 30499

7 19 48 32 106

1 4 9 3 17

0.00257 0.00317 0.00546 0.00247 0.00348

2 3 4 1

0.00037 0.00067 0.00102 0.00023 0.00056

2 3 4 1

0.14286 0.21053 0.18750 0.09375 0.16038

2 4 3 1

CP - 16

Sum of Ranks 6 10 11 3

Probability of Appeal

Probability of Reversal

Rank

Rank

Rank

Sum of Ranks 25 12 29 16 15 38 34 38 22 31 11 25 37 45 24 5

Probability of Reversal

Probability of Appeal

Rank

Rank

Rank

Chapter 4

Introduction to Probability

Municipal Court Total Cases Disposed

Appealed Cases

Reversed Cases

Conditional Probability of Reversal Given Appeal

Judge

Mike Allen 6149 Nadine Allen 7812 Timothy Black 7954 David Davis 7736 Leslie Isaiah Gaines 5282 Karla Grady 5253 Deidra Hair 2532 Dennis Helmick 7900 Timothy Hogan 2308 James Patrick Kenney 2798 Joseph Luebbers 4698 William Mallory 8277 Melba Marsh 8219 Beth Mattingly 2971 Albert Mestemaker 4975 Mark Painter 2239 Jack Rosen 7790 Mark Schweikert 5403 David Stockdale 5371 John A. West 2797 Total 108464

43 34 41 43 35 6 5 29 13 6 25 38 34 13 28 7 41 33 22 4 500

4 6 6 5 13 0 0 5 2 1 8 9 7 1 9 3 13 6 4 2 104

0.00699 0.00435 0.00515 0.00556 0.00663 0.00114 0.00197 0.00367 0.00563 0.00214 0.00532 0.00459 0.00414 0.00438 0.00563 0.00313 0.00526 0.00611 0.00410 0.00143 0.00461

20 9 12 15 19 1 3 6 17 4 14 11 8 10 16 5 13 18 7 2

0.00065 0.00077 0.00075 0.00065 0.00246 0.00000 0.00000 0.00063 0.00087 0.00036 0.00170 0.00109 0.00085 0.00034 0.00181 0.00134 0.00167 0.00111 0.00074 0.00072 0.00096

7 11 10 6 20 1 1 5 13 4 18 14 12 3 19 16 17 15 9 8

0.09302 0.17647 0.14634 0.11628 0.37143 0.00000 0.00000 0.17241 0.15385 0.16667 0.32000 0.23684 0.20588 0.07692 0.32143 0.42857 0.31707 0.18182 0.18182 0.50000 0.20800

4 10 6 5 18 1 1 9 7 8 16 14 13 3 17 19 15 11 11 20

CP - 17

Sum of Ranks 31 30 28 26 57 3 5 20 37 16 48 39 33 16 52 40 45 44 27 30

Probability of Reversal

Probability of Appeal

Rank

Rank

Rank