Math 1040 Project 2

Probability Simulation
Part 1A. There are 29 students in the class (n). There are a few shared birthdays in
the class: June 19, and November 27. This is not what I would have expected,
however, It is not unusual.
Part 1B:
1. The probability of at least two people sharing a birthday=1-P(no one shares).
To calculate this probability, we must first take the probability of the first
person does not share a birthday with anyone else in the class, or 365/365.
For the second person, the probability would then be 364/365. The
probability of the third person does not share a birthday with anyone else
would be 363/365, and so on for the rest of the class of 29.
The probability of at least 2 students sharing a birthday would be:
1-(365Pn)/(365^n)
2. P(at least 2 people share)= 1-365P29/365^29^29= 0.68096853 or 68.1%
Part 1C: simulated probability of two students in a class sharing a birthday. Each
column represents a class. Marked yes or no, whether or not there is a shared
birthday in each class.
2
3
8
22
26
41
86
127
131
135
141
142
144
145
150
168
196
232
235
239
252
264
269
272
273
303
306
322
333
NO

9
16
18
48
66
68
102
116
159
164
173
180
200
203
204
217
218
226
232
233
239
241
285
288
314
315
328
339
351
NO

4
7
7
28
42
52
56
71
82
102
105
121
128
135
162
166
175
209
216
216
217
235
301
303
311
327
329
331
331
YES

13
21
39
43
60
67
68
85
94
98
110
123
126
141
153
180
181
183
190
196
206
212
217
250
279
289
293
293
332
YES

4
20
21
23
46
49
96
105
121
133
144
155
158
162
179
181
192
255
259
262
263
268
281
289
303
306
308
309
353
NO

7
16
19
21
29
47
87
96
97
99
121
123
127
129
136
139
149
173
174
227
238
241
248
258
258
294
303
333
347
YES

2
41
49
62
72
92
100
123
132
141
145
147
153
155
177
189
200
232
248
263
263
276
282
290
295
307
321
332
334
YES

11
26
54
76
89
97
101
110
148
158
171
189
204
211
212
227
228
256
260
263
274
286
302
341
345
353
354
359
361
NO

6
9
34
53
71
77
95
113
134
153
154
157
157
163
163
187
189
199
204
213
233
252
253
268
276
284
294
343
346
YES

11
12
33
38
74
77
108
127
138
143
149
158
182
186
188
188
202
234
248
251
269
283
285
297
310
327
345
350
350
YES

26
33
33
55
64
88
105
120
149
151
172
174
177
185
186
191
209
221
222
236
238
256
266
291
312
318
329
347
357
YES

5
12
21
30
53
55
61
74
78
86
88
92
99
99
101
146
185
194
201
206
207
221
238
292
300
313
334
337
353
YES

10
47
51
60
89
100
102
103
111
152
167
174
178
182
190
193
212
227
251
266
269
274
275
290
298
309
317
324
336
NO

29
42
67
78
94
95
106
106
127
137
139
148
150
157
188
208
237
242
247
250
266
267
284
287
292
296
353
353
361
YES

20
39
44
69
90
116
124
134
142
142
146
163
169
169
174
179
183
190
204
208
217
226
238
292
294
298
310
320
358
YES

53
74
98
100
111
165
178
178
186
190
197
211
213
213
215
217
229
231
270
285
298
300
303
313
314
337
343
360
362
YES

42
43
65
65
65
71
84
98
105
144
167
216
228
232
241
256
258
273
280
286
288
295
313
314
319
329
352
361
363
YES

1
37
49
60
74
76
93
95
111
138
148
155
180
190
191
198
223
224
232
262
308
311
313
321
322
327
331
334
355
NO

2
18
39
48
61
63
118
125
129
132
134
166
190
223
226
230
233
257
257
277
287
299
301
303
312
316
323
334
342
YES

3
20
24
51
59
60
60
64
64
69
90
92
99
103
108
126
138
139
174
179
180
208
253
271
292
294
338
350
364
YES

Based on these results, the probability of students sharing a birthday is found with
the following equation: (# of yeses)/20
14 yeses/20=.7 or 70% chance
For a class of 30, the probability of students sharing a birthday would also be .7
Part 1D:
Theoretical probability= 68.1%
Simulated probability= 70%
The percent different between the theoretical and simulated probabilities is found
with the formula: (simulated value-theoretical value)/theoretical value
% difference=.0279
The values found are fairly close to one another; however, the theoretical
probability was almost 2% less than the simulated probability. In my class of 29,
there were 2 shared birthdays. This is not unusual based on the 70% probability of
at least 2 students sharing a birthday because the birthdays in my class supported
the majority of the overall samples in the simulated and theoretical probabilities.
Part 2:
Part 2A:
Theoretic Probability
x=# pips p(x)
X*P(x)
X^2*P(X)
1
0
0
2
0.0278
0.0556
0.1112
3
0.0556
0.1668
0.5004
4
0.0833
0.3332
1.3328
5
0.1111
0.5555
2.7775
6
0.1389
0.8334
5.0004
7
0.1667
1.1669
8.1683
8
0.1389
1.1112
8.8896
9
0.1111
0.9999
8.9991
10
0.0833
0.833
8.33
11
0.0556
0.6116
6.7276
12
0.0278
0.3336
4.0032
TOTAL
7.0007 54.8401
STANDARD DEV
2.414601

Theoretical Probability of Throwing 2 Dice

Histogram:

Theoretical Probability
Throwing 2 Dice
0.18
0.16
0.14
Probability

0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
1

number of pips

Part 2B:
Bin

Relative Frequency
1
0
2 0.058333
3
0.05
4
0.075
5
0.15
6 0.158333
7 0.191667
8
0.1
9 0.091667
10
0.075
11
0.05
12
0
MEAN
6.5337
STANDARD DEV.
2.3261

10

11

12

Part 2C: Both the theoretical and simulated probabilities are very similar. The mean
of the theoretical was 7.001, while the mean for the simulated was 6.534, a mere .5
difference. The standard deviation showed similar results. The theoretical showed a
SD of 2.4146, and the simulation showed a SD of 2.3261. The theoretical probability
histogram had perfectly normal distribution, while the simulation histogram had
slightly skewed, yet relatively normal distribution. I can conclude, based on this
experiment, that the theoretical probability is not perfect, yet it accurately
represents the probability distribution of data.