DHAKA TRIBUNE

Long Form
like Assam, West Bengal, Tripura and Mizoram illegal migration is a key political issue especially in Assam where governments are made and unmade on the issue of illegal settlers from Bangladesh. To make matters worse, political patronage and vote bank politics go hand in hand with the issue of illegal migrants. Modi, in a recent electoral rally at Assam pointedly referred to this issue he alleged that a large number of illegal migrants (read-Muslim) were being accommodated by the state government to benefit from vote bank politics. If his party came to power, he would expel these illegal settlers from India. He further stated that Hindu migrants fleeing from religious oppression in Bangladesh would be accommodated all across the country. The Government of Bangladesh has denied Indias claims on illegal immigration. It may well point to the presence of illegal Indian migrants in Bangladesh. According to data produced by the Bangladesh Ministry of Home Affairs, as many as 500,000 Indians were staying in Bangladesh illegally in 2009. Bangladesh ranks fifth amongst the nations sending remittances to India. Indians sent as much as $3,716 million to India in 2013. Most of them are residing without proper visas and documentation. People who are migrating to Bangladesh illegally are from West Bengal, Meghalaya, Assam, Tripura and Mizoram. Thus, problems of illegal migration seem to be adversely affecting both the countries and is not as one dimensional as Mr Modi makes it out to be. A long porous border, smuggling by organised gangs and the involvement of transnational terrorist organisations have all exacerbated the problem of illegal migrants. Instead of trading blame and pointing fingers, there is a need for concerted and coordinated cooperation between the two governments which will lead to a comprehensive framework.

Tuesday, April 1, 2014

Modi-fying Bangladesh-India relations

Shahab Enam Khan and n Parvez Karim Abbasi

arring a miracle, the 2014 Lok Sabha Elections in India is widely expected to see the BJP led National Democratic Alliance at the centre and Narendra Modi at the helm. The change of guard may profoundly affect Indias relations with its neighbours especially Bangladesh. The Modi Effect may transform and even strain the existing warm relations between the Congress led Indian government and the Awami League (AL) led Bangladesh government. Awami League and Indian National Congress have historically shared a close rapport dating back to Indira Gandhis unequivocal support to Sheikh Mujibur Rahman during Bangladeshs War of Independence. This has resulted in special government-to-government relations as witnessed by the Prime Ministers Office consistently eclipsing the Ministry of External Affairs in determining New Delhis foreign policy with Bangladesh. India has provided strong support to the Awami League government of Sheikh Hasina since 2008. It had openly expressed its desire to see secular forces in power in Bangladesh as evidenced by Indian Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singhs visit to Dhaka in No-

nority community, namely the Hindus and Buddhists. Acts of oppression, violence and intimidation against the minority community seems to have gone up markedly especially during the time of the abortive anti-government agitation of the opposition and the recently concluded elections. The government, sadly, has been unable to firmly squash these attacks on the minority community. The violent attacks in Ramu and Gopalganj are a case in point. Minority leaders point out that these attacks had specific political and economic agenda and in most cases, the perpetrators of these heinous acts have not been apprehended. The minority community seems to be living under a state of siege and are nervously awaiting political developments.

Indo-Bangla relations
What then, will the effect of Modis coming to power be on India-Bangladesh relations? Most likely, interactions between Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Prime Minister Modi would be confined within strict stateto-state affairs and special government-to-government relations would be transformed to even-handed stateto-state propinquity. The cooling of relations may be partially attributed to Modis virulent hatred for the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty

The cooling of relations may be partially attributed to Modis virulent hatred for the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty and all that it stands for

vember 2013. The Congresss overt and explicit regime-specific acclamation in favour of Awami League was on show during the recently concluded national elections in Bangladesh, which was boycotted by the leading opposition party Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). This has led to the other political parties questioning Indian policymakers commitment to ensuring a stable multi-party democracy in the country. Indias overt, and at times ham-fisted, meddling in Bangladeshi politics has led to and strengthened existing anti-Indian sentiment amongst the populace.

Strained ties
As it is, regular shooting and killing of Bangladeshi civilians by the Border Security Force, the failure in reaching an accord on the sharing of water from the Teesta River, the failure in ratification of the long-pending land boundary agreement, hindrance in Bangladeshi companies accessing Indian markets have all contributed in eroding the considerable goodwill that India had earned amongst Bangladeshis for rendering invaluable support during the War of Liberation against Pakistan. The Awami League government on its part has temporarily cracked down on extremists with ties to Pakistan or Indias home-grown terrorist groups. It has also come down hard on Islamist parties or groups which are professedly anti-Indian. However, this has come at a high price. In the interest of establishing a secular polity, the government has come down hard on Islamist parties (ironically, the AL government is following the footsteps of the previous BNP government which initiated counter terrorism measures against Islamic terrorist outfits like JMB and HUJI-B). This has significantly alienated a large chunk of the population that has traditionally endorsed religious pluralism and practised Islam as a peaceful way of life. Over-reliance on the secularism card to gain Western sympathy and to secure political guarantee from the Congress has ultimately led to the emergence of a more radical segment of the society that does not believe nor care to participate in the current Westminster style democracy. The absence of a vibrant multi party democracy has created a political vacuum. There is a real danger that religious extremists and fringe outfits may move in to fill this void a threat to which AL, BNP and even the Congress-led UPA government seem to be blissfully unaware.

and all that it stands for the proximity of the Mujib and Nehru Gandhi Family forged during the tumultuous days of the Liberation War may well serve to jaundice his views on the current Bangladesh government. A potential beneficiary of this turn of events could well be BNP the leading political opposition party. Contrary to its alleged anti-Indian stance, BNP is not averse to doing business with India. It is worthwhile to remember that opening up of the Bangladeshi economy to Indian business happened under the watch of BNP and was aggressively pursued by its Finance Minister, the late Saifur Rahman. BNP benefited from bilateral trade and cooperation during the centre-right coalition regime led by BJP during 1998-2004. This has also contributed in BNP toning down its anti India rhetoric in recent times. The partys studied silence on the issue of granting transit facility to India is a case in point. The party also belatedly understands that it cannot win support of the international community if it does not distance itself from religious extremists and assure India that it will not allow its territory to serve as a sanctuary for Indian terrorist and separatist groups like ULFA to ferment trouble in North East India.

Religious hostility
Another related issue that Modi may raise could be the treatment of the Hindu community in Bangladesh. This issue itself may raise quite a few eyebrows in Bangladesh. Modi, a self confessed Hindu nationalist, is closely identified with the Godhra incident and the ensuing anti-Muslim riots in Gujarat in 2002 (under his watch). His party, BJP, has been involved with many riots the demolition of Babri Mosque in 1992 and the recent Muzaffarnagar riots in 2013. However, it is true that incidents of minority oppression has taken place in Bangladesh across the different political regimes (though on a far smaller scale when compared to India). State-authorised confiscation of Hindu-owned property under the provisions of theEnemy Property Acthad been rampant. It is unfortunate that no government has taken any concrete measure to remedy this deep-seated malaise. The failure of successive governments (starting from the Mujib government in 1972) to return the premises of the most important temple in Dhaka

Narendra Modi during an election rally in Gumla in Indias Jharkhand state  River seems even more remote this time around. Apart from bringing about a change of heart amongst the BJP top brass the wily Didi Mamata Banerjee, who is implacably opposed to the deal the chances are slim. If the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance fails to secure overwhelming numbers in the next election, this may be very difficult to effect. All this brings us to the next problem the issue of Dhaka granting New Delhi transit facilities to North East India. In order to sweeten the deal, New Delhi has already provided a $1bn soft loan to facilitate infrastructural development. It has also offered to provide another $1bn credit to Dhaka to sweeten the deal. The problem with the Bangladesh government is that it cannot afford to go forward on the transit issue without showing positive results on the Land Boundary Agreement and the Teesta River accord. Lack of infrastructure and non-settlement of transit fees have also held back progress on the transit related issues. The Bangladesh government is further handicapped by the absence of consensus amongst the other political parties, namely BNP. This in turn can only be facilitated by stable multi-party participatory democracy. The Modiled government would surely raise the transit issue and would try to exert considerable pressure on Dhaka. Gulf ). Bangladesh has long upheld the rights of the Palestinians and the general populace will not look favourably to Indias growing public tilt towards Israel. Undoubtedly, Modi has demonstrated his charm as a seasoned politician in wooing considerable number of Indian voters. But he has yet to demonstrate his capabilities as a statesman who will not only ensure Indian interests but also respect, recognise and realise the aspirations and wishes of

AFP

The prospect of reaching an agreement on water sharing of the Teesta River seems even more remote this time around

Bangladeshi political parties must exhibit maturity and shy away from India baiting to flame anti-Indian sentiments in the country

Global factors
In the era of globalisation and increased connectivity, the major political parties would do well to have a common vision on this critical issue (South Asian and Asian Connectivity) the situation warrants a practical and politically feasible approach in the context of larger national, bilateral, and multilateral interests. In terms of global politics, Indias relations with Israel will probably deepen. Israel is already one of Indias major defence partners. Though it was the Congress government that recognized Israel back in 1992, it was under the BJP-led government of Vajpayee that Indian-Israeli ties blossomed. Modi is one of the few Indian politicians to have visited Israel, suggesting that he would potentially inaugurate a round of Indian prime ministerial visits to the Jewish state. This will significantly upset the Muslim population in the subcontinent and reverse the long standing practice of the Indian politicians, of not being seen too close to Tel Aviv (in order to placate Muslim Indian voters and oil rich states in the

Illegal migrants
A major issue that the Modi-led government may raise with the Bangladesh government is the contentious and tricky issue of illegal migration of Bangladeshis to India. The problem lies with the number of Bangladeshi migrants illegally residing in India. No reliable numbers on illegal immigrants are currently available. As per 2001 India census there was 3,084,826 people in India who came from Bangladesh. However, the census does not provide the number of illegal migrants. Figures, as high as 20 million are also reported in the government and media. Some Indian academicians like Samir Guha Roy of the Indian Statistical Institute call these figures motivatedly exaggerated to serve narrow, sectarian, political agenda. However, it is true that in states

- the Ramna Kali Mandir (which was destroyed by the Pakistani army) to the religious body that owned the property is a glaring act of injustice. Research by Abul Barkat of Dhaka University indicates that one million Hindu households have lost over two million acres of land property and other resources.

Land boundary, water sharing, transit

In terms of honouring the Mujib-Indira Land Boundary Agreement of 1974, India has consistently disappointed the Bangladeshis. The current Congress led UPA government could not even table this bill in the Lok Sabha in the face of vehement opposition by BJP members. It does not seem that things will change in a hurry with Modi at the helm. The prospect of reaching an agreement on water sharing of the Teesta

its neighbouring countries. This will go a long way in healing the strained relations and the lingering air of doubt and mistrust in the region. He would not need to look further than the example set by Vajpayee as foreign minister during the reign of Janata Dals coalition government during the late 1970s. A meaningful, substantive multiparty democracy in Bangladesh would go a long way in reducing political uncertainty and policy continuity in Bangladesh. Bangladeshi political parties must also exhibit maturity and shy away from India baiting to flame anti-Indian sentiments in the country. India is a big neighbour and Bangladesh must reach a mutually satisfactory accommodation with India. India too must respect and rectify long standing Bangladeshi grievances as a proof of its goodwill. This would pave the ways for a more mature relationship between Bangladesh and India that is based on respect and accommodation for mutual priorities. Can Modi truly modify India-Bangladesh relations? Only time will tell. Shahab Enam Khan is Associate Professor in International Relations, Jahangirnagar University. He can be reached at shahab@ juir.edu.bd. Parvez Karim Abbasi is Senior Lecturer in Economics, East West University, Dhaka. He can be reached at parvez_abbasi@yahoo.com.

Mauled minorities
The scapegoat of this fallout is the mi-