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5 December 2011
Market Commentary
Our markets in the previous week recovered sharply from the lows on the back of incremental global news flow and expectations of larger liquidity influx into the system to address the Eurozone problem. In a coordinated effort, the central banks of six countries including the Federal Reserve and the ECB decided to cut the currency swap cost from 100 basis points to 50 basis points to assist banks across these countries to arrange for dollar funds at cheaper rates. This, coupled with noise from the EU financial leaders meet around, involving the ECB and the IMF to help fund the troubled European countries, lifted sentiments globally. This was further evident from the response received for the Spanish bonds auction with yields cooling off post the liquidity boost. On the macro front, the PMI data released for Eurozone, as a whole, signalled contraction in trade, while that from US remained incrementally positive with the ISM manufacturing index for the month of November coming in at 52.7 vs consensus estimates of 51.8. Initial jobless claims remained lackluster and came in at 402,000 vs consensus estimates of 390,000. On the domestic front, the 3QCY11 GDP growth came in at 6.9% in-line with estimates along with a cool off in inflation, as indicated by the inflation internals, though largely contributed by high base effect. The global indices closed the week higher by anywhere between 6.83%-10%. The Nifty too paired these gains to close higher by ~6.0% in the trade. On the funds flow front, FIIs remained net sellers to the tune of Rs 15.8 bn along with DIIs, which sold to the tune of Rs 5.0 bn.
Market Statistics
Developed Last Close U.S. (S&P)* Dow Jones (DJIA)* Dollar Index* UK (FTSE)* CAC40(France)* Dax (Germany)* Japan (Nikkei 225) Emerging Markets India (Sensex) India (Nifty) China (Shanhai) Asian Markets Hong Kong(HSI) Singapore (Straits) Korea (Kospi) BSE Sector BSE Mid Cap BSE Small Cap Auto Bankex Capital Goods Power Realty Technology FMCG Metal Institutional Activities FII* (Rs bn) DII* (Rs bn) Commodities Update Unit Crude Oil(NYME)** Gold(OTC)** Silver(OTC)** Copper(LME)** Aluminum(LME)** Sugar(LIFFE)** $/Bbl $/Oz $/Oz $/MT $/MT $/MT Last Close 5,763 6,190 8,820 10,550 9,933 2,012 1,657 3,470 4,111 10,914 WTD (15.8) (5.0) Last Close 100.6 1750.8 33.4 7763.0 2138.3 605.9 1,245 12,020 78 5,569 3,177 6,121 8,644 16,847 5,050 2,361 19,040 2,773 1,916 % Change WTD YTD 7.4 7.0 (1.8) 7.8 11.2 11.4 5.9 7.3 7.2 (0.8) 7.6 4.9 7.9 (1.0) 3.8 (1.0) (5.6) (16.5) (11.5) (15.5) (17.9) (17.7) (15.9) (17.3) (13.1) (6.6)
Nifty Performance
300 4937 5500
4710
4851
4805
4832
5000
4500
0 25-Nov
28-Nov
29-Nov
4000 01-Dec
% Change WTD YTD 2.7 (26.1) 2.3 (36.0) 5.5 (13.8) 8.0 (21.1) 4.2 (35.6) 6.2 (32.7) 4.9 5.6 5.4 (42.0) (14.3) 11.6
RELINFRA GAIL AXISBANK INFY BHARTIARTL DRREDDY HEROMOTOCO RANBAXY DLF JPASSOCIAT RCOM KOTAKBANK TATAMOTORS SBIN TATASTEEL HINDALCO -25
Source: www.nseindia.com
4.84 4.48 4.41 4.26 4.15 2.76 2.24 0.86 11.24 11.41 11.51 11.54 11.95 12.29 13.58 19.32
10.5 (38.0) Spot market MTD YTD 6.9 (45.8) (7.1) 194.3 % Change WTD YTD 4.0 4.0 6.8 7.7 7.9 2.5 10.1 23.2 7.9 (19.6) (13.1) (18.8)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0 5 % Change
10
15
20
Weekly Wrap
5 December 2011
International News
US initial jobless claims increase even as ISM manufacturing expands US initial jobless claims for the week ended Nov 26 came in at 402,000 vs consensus estimates of 390,000. Bloomberg consumer comfort index slipped further to -50.2 for the week ended Nov 27 vs consensus estimates of -49. The ISM manufacturing index though increased to 52.7 vs consensus estimates of 51.8 for the month of Nov on the back of the holiday season demand. Central Banks cut cost of borrowing dollars Six central banks led by the Federal Reserve made it cheaper for banks to borrow dollars in emergencies in a global effort to ease Europes sovereign-debt crisis. The cost for European banks to borrow dollars dropped from the highest in three years, tempering concerns about the euros worsening crisis after leaders said theyd failed to boost the regions bailout fund as much as planned.
Source: Economic Times, Business Line, Business Standard, Times of India, DNA Money, Mint, Financial Express, Bloomberg
Weekly Wrap
5 December 2011
IIP (%) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
IIP growth rate and GDP growth rate GDP (%) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 May-10 May-11 Nov-09 Nov-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Jul-11 Mar-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Jan-10 Jan-11
Sep-09
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Dec-95
Sensex Multiple
Dec-97
Dec-99
Dec-01 PE-10
Dec-11
Source: Bloomberg
Market Outlook
Looking forward into the week ahead, in our opinion, the markets are likely to remain volatile and news flow driven, with a particular focus on the Eurozone leaders meeting which is scheduled for Dec 9. Further, market participants will be keeping an eye out for the UK and German industrial production data which is scheduled to be released this week. The Bloomberg consensus has pegged the same at -0.7% and 3.2%, respectively. On the domestic front, the market participants will be closely monitoring the ongoing Winter Session of Parliament, as we have already lost 8-9 days amidst fresh row across various topics. Going forward into the next week, we would approach the markets with caution, as we enter a news flow packed week before the European leaders meet. We are thus of the opinion that the Nifty could trade in the range of 4,9005,200 with high level of volatility.
Weekly Wrap
5 December 2011
Weekly outlook
Scrip
Nifty Bank Nifty CNX IT
Source: nseindia.com
OI Change (%)
0.32 -14.74 9.60
Long buildup was seen in Nifty and CNX IT. Short unwinding was seen in Bank Nifty.
Sectoral Movement
15 10 5 0 -5 -10
Highlights:
Banking
Cement
Auto
IT
Sugar
Oil&Gas
Telecom
Engineering
Pharma
Finance
Fertilizers
Chemical
Textiles
Others
Metals
Power
Media
Long buildup was seen in most of the sectors with highest in Finance followed by Auto, FMCG, Chemical, Pharma and Fertilizers sector. Short unwinding was seen in Cement, Telecom, Sugar and Media sector.
FMCG
Infra
% Change OI
Source: nseindia.com
% Change Price
PCR Movement
Premium/Discount
50
1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00
% CHANGE
OI
Vol
Nifty Spot
FUT-SPOT
40 30 20 10 0 -10
14/11/11 16/11/11 18/11/11 20/11/11 22/11/11 24/11/11 26/11/11 28/11/11 30/11/11 02/12/11
Highlights:
PCR for Nifty based on OI was up at 1.31 & volumes was down at 0.96 respectively over the previous week. Nifty Dec future trades at 30 to 31 points premium to the Spot.
21/11/11
22/11/11
23/11/11
24/11/11
25/11/11
28/11/11
29/11/11
30/11/11
01/12/11
Source: nseindia.com
02/12/11
Source: nseindia.com
December Expiry
Put OI Call OI
Strike 5000 5100 5200
5300 5400 5500 5600 5700
CE/PE CE CE CE PE PE PE
Highlights:
High activity seen at strikes of 5000/5100 in call & 4700/4800 in puts for Dec series. Supports seen at 4900 and resistance seen at 5200.
Source: nseindia.com
Source: nseindia.com
Weekly Wrap
5 December 2011
Long Built Up
TATASTEEL NTPC HINDALCO RCOM JPASSOCIAT SESAGOA DLF SBIN KOTAKBANK TATAMOTORS TCS
10
AMBUJACEM GRASIM SUNPHARMA ONGC BPCL CIPLA SAIL HINDUNILVR BAJAJ-AUTO HDFC ACC TATAPOWER
ICICIBANK
CAIRN
RPOWER SIEMENS
5
INFY GAIL RANBAXY DRREDDY
BHARTIARTL
LT
HEROMOTOCO RELINFRA
AXISBANK
(5)
(10)
<
Source: www.nseindia.com
(10)
Profit Booking/long Unwinding
(5)
10
Short Built Up
>
Weekly Wrap
5 December 2011
Events to Watch
Monday 05 December Singapore PMI for Nov HK PMI for Nov US Factory Orders for Oct Spain Industrial Production (YoY) for Oct Tuesday 06 December Germany Factory Orders YoY (nsa) for Oct India Wednesday 07 December US MBA Mortgage Applications for Dec 2 Germany Industrial Production YoY for Oct Italy Industrial Production (YoY) for Oct UK Industrial Production (YoY) for Oct Thursday 08 December India Weekly Inflation for Nov 26 US Initial Jobless Claims for Dec 2 US Continuing Claims for Nov 25 Japan Machine Orders YoY% for Oct Japan Trade Balance BOP basis for Oct Greece Industrial Production for Oct Greece Unemployment Rate for Sep UK BOE Rate 15 December India Weekly Inflation for Dec 3 US Initial Jobless Claims for Dec 9 US Continuing Claims for Dec 2 US Industrial Production for Nov UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (YoY) for Nov 22 December India Weekly Inflation for Dec 10 US Initial Jobless Claims for Dec 16 US Continuing Claims for Dec 9 HK Balance of Payments Current A/C Friday 09 December China Industrial Prod. (YoY) for Nov China Trade Balance (USD) for Nov* Japan Final GDP (QoQ) for 3Q US Trade Bal for Oct Germany Current Account for Oct Greece Final GDP (YoY) for 3Q UK Total Trade Balance for Oct 16 December India REPO Cutoff Yld, CRR and Reverse Repo Italy Current Account for Oct
12 December India Industrial Production for Oct Japan Domestic CGPI (YoY) for Nov
13 December India Manpower Survey for 1Q US Advance Retail Sales for Nov HK Industrial Production for 3Q
14 December India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% for Nov US MBA Mortgage Applications for Dec 9 US FOMC Rate Decision Japan Final Industrial Production YoY% for Oct UK Claimant Count Rate for Nov 21 December US MBA Mortgage Applications for Dec 16 US Existing Home Sales for Nov Japan Merchnds Trade Balance Total for Nov Japan BOJ Target Rate
23 December Singapore Industrial Production YoY for Nov US Durbles Goods Orders for Nov US Personal Spending for Nov US PCE Core (YoY) for Nov US New Home Sales for Nov Japan 30 December Spain Current Account (Euros) for Oct China MNI December Business Condition Survey
26 December Singapore HK US UK
27 December Japan Vehicle Production for Nov US Consumer Confidence for Dec HK UK
28 December US MBA Mortgage Applications for Dec 23 Japan Preliminary Industrial Production YoY% for Nov
29 December India Weekly Inflation for Dec 17 US Initial Jobless Claims for Dec 23 US Continuing Claims for Dec 16 HK Trade Balance for Nov Italy Business Confidence for Dec
Source: Bloomberg. Red Font: Stock Exchange Holiday *On 10 December 2011
Weekly Wrap
5 December 2011
Sr. No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Date 30-Nov-11 28-Nov-11 28-Nov-11 21-Nov-11 21-Nov-11 18-Nov-11 17-Nov-11 11-Nov-11 11-Nov-11 04-Nov-11 03-Nov-11 03-Nov-11 02-Nov-11 02-Nov-11 02-Nov-11 01-Nov-11 21-Oct-11 21-Oct-11 14-Oct-11 26-May-11 06-May-11 18-Nov-10
Stock Adhunik Metaliks Limited Tata Metaliks Usha Martin Cosmo Films Mcleod Russel India Ltd. Blue Star Ltd Eros International Media Ltd Jyothy Laboratories Ltd Glenmark Pharma Ltd Arvind Limited Jagran Prakashan Ltd Allahabad Bank PVR Alok Industries NIIT Technologies Ltd Uco Bank Dish TV IFCI Development Credit Bank JK Tyre & Industries Escorts Ltd Godawari Power & Ispat
Product Smart Idea Smart Idea Smart Idea Smart Idea Smart Idea Smart Idea Smart Idea Smart Idea Smart Idea Smart Idea Smart Idea Smart Idea Smart Idea Smart Idea Smart Idea Smart Idea Smart Idea Smart Idea Smart Idea Smart Idea Smart Idea Smart Idea
Reco Hold Hold Hold Buy Hold Hold Buy Hold Buy Hold Hold Buy Buy Buy Hold Buy Buy Buy Buy Sell Buy Buy
Reco Price 38 62 25 79 223 179 249 151 318 107 107 161 136 21 226 75 76 31 44 92 133 206
Target Price 45 93 24 130 253 136 291 194 391 104 133 210 178 36 252 97 101 50 52 80 164 253
Weekly Wrap
5 December 2011
HSCI Recommendations
Sr. No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 Name of Company Jyoti Structures Ltd Kalpataru Power Transmission KEC International Larsen & Toubro Bank of Baroda Canara Bank HDFC HDFC Bank ICICI Bank Indusind Bank Punjab National Bank Union Bank Of India HCL Technologies Infosys Technologies MindTree Ltd TCS Hindalco Hindustan Zinc Jindal Saw Ltd Jindal Steel & Power Sterlite Industries Tata Steel Ltd Welspun Corp Cairn India Limited. Oil India Ltd. (OIL) Cadila Healthcare Cipla Dr Reddy's Lab Lupin Maharashtra Seamless Ltd Cesc Ltd Power Grid Corp of India PTC India Bharti Airtel Tulip Telecom Axis Bank Ltd Yes Bank Educomp Solutions NIIT IRB Nagarjuna Construction Persistent Systems Polaris Software Lab Ipca Laboratories Housing Development & Inf LIC Housing Finance Recommendation Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight Overweight (v) Overweight (v) Overweight (v) Overweight (v) Overweight (v) Overweight (v) Overweight (v) Overweight (v) Overweight (V) Target Price (Rs) 100 165 80 1,844 961 572 808 603 1,127 362 1,244 250 490 3,000 470 1,260 170 150 280 710 220 630 265 350 1,607 930 360 1,950 560 450 475 130 90 475 235 1,477 369 625 80 235 92 457 235 380 205 299 Closing Price (Rs) (02 Dec 11) 49 100 42 1,310 731 444 668 466 788 275 916 224 417 2,694 406 1,178 135 126 129 534 109 419 72 317 1,143 700 331 1,577 470 337 260 103 51 391 132 1,006 290 217 44 152 40 311 126 265 65 234
Source: HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited Note: We have included stocks with overweight only.
Weekly Wrap
5 December 2011
Advisory Group Karun Mutha SVP & Head - Equity & Derivatives Advisory Tel +91-22-67897833 Email: karunmutha@hsbc.co.in Fundamental Team Supriya Madye Deepan Sankaranarayanan Jignesh Shial Hitesh Punjabi Prerna Jhunjhunwala Chetan Thacker Priyanka Rai Pallavi Golar Quantitative Team Tina Gadodia Akshay Bhagwat Nikunj Shah Pritesh Shah Technical Team Mukesh Singh Ruchit Jain Vice President- Technical Analyst Technical Analyst 022 67897816 022 67897817 mukeshksingh@hsbc.co.in ruchitjain@hsbc.co.in Derivative Analyst Derivative Analyst Derivative Analyst Associate - Derivative Analyst 022 67897828 022 67897830 022 39673998 022 67897831 tinagadodia@hsbc.co.in akshaybhagwat@hsbc.co.in nikunjshah@hsbc.co.in priteshshah@hsbc.co.in Designation/Sectors covered AVP AnalystAuto, Cement, Infra AnalystMedia, Logistics AnalystFinancials, Real Estate AnalystIT, Pharma AnalystRetail, FMCG, Capital Goods AnalystMetal, Mining, Agri Assistant Manager (Production) Assistant Manager (Editor) 022 39673815 022 39673818 022 39673820 022 39673823 022 39673822 022 39673821 022 39673852 022 39673855 supriyamadye@hsbc.co.in deepansankar@hsbc.co.in jigneshshial@hsbc.co.in hiteshpunjabi@hsbc.co.in prernamjhunjhunwala@hsbc.co.in chetanthacker@hsbc.co.in priyankarairai@hsbc.co.in pallavigolar@hsbc.co.in
Weekly Wrap
5 December 2011
Disclaimer:
Issuer of the Document:- HSBC InvestDirect Securities (India) Limited Registered Office:HSBC Umang, 5th Floor, Mind Space, Link Road, Malad West, Mumbai - 400064 Toll Free No: 1800-209-4477 Fax: (91-22)61872888 Website: www.hsbcinvestdirect.co.in
Disclosure
HSBC InvestDirect Securities (India) Limited (HISL) its associate and group companies its directors associates and employees may have various positions in any of the stocks securities and financial instruments dealt in this document or may make sale or purchase or other deals in the securities from time to time or may deal in other securities of the companies / organizations described in this document.
Certification
The views and opinions expressed by the author in the document are his own and do not reflect the views of HSBC InvestDirect Securities (India) Limited or any of its associate and group companies.
Disclaimer Clause
The above is for customer information only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. This document is not directed to or intended for display downloading printing reproducing or for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality state country or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication reproduction availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or would subject HSBC InvestDirect Securities (India) Limited (HISL) or its associates or group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this document is inadvertently sent or has reached any individual in such country the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced distributed or published for any purpose without prior written approval of HISL. This document is not intended to provide legal accounting or tax advice and should not be relied upon in that regard. Persons accessing this document are advised to obtain appropriate legal accounting or tax advice where necessary. Financial advice provided has not been prepared taking into account the particular investment objectives financial situation and needs of any particular investor. As a result i nvestors using the advice should assess whether it is appropriate in the light of their own individual circumstances before acting on it.
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