Decision making processes can be affected by flaws in decision thinking These flaws are psychological trapsthey are unconscious

We can only learn to be alert to them and compensate for them These traps work in isolation or can amplify one another

Giving disproportionate weight to the first information you receive Initial impressions, estimates, or data anchor subsequent thoughts and judgments Anchors take many guises. A comment, or statistic, or stereotype, or a past event, or trend

View a problem from different perspectives. Use alternative starting points Think about problem on your own before consulting others (to avoid anchoring by their ideas) Seek information and opinions from a variety of people to widen frame of reference

Favoring alternatives that perpetuate the existing situation Comfortable, not upsetting current balance Source is in our desire to protect our egos from damage, less psychological risk Taking action (responsibility) opens us to criticism and to regret

Ask if the status quo really serves your objectives Ask if youd choose the status quo if it werent the status quo Avoid exaggerating the effort or cost involved in switching from status quo

Making choices in a way that justifies past, flawed choices Acknowledging poor decision in professional life is a public matter, inviting criticism If penalties for decision that may lead to unfavorable outcomes are severe, this trap is strong

Get views of people who werent involved in the original decisions Admitting to mistakes is habit to be cultivated Dont cultivate a failure-fearing culture. Look at quality of decision making, not just the quality of the outcomes

Seeking information that supports your existing point of view

Check that all evidence is treated with equal rigor Ask a respected colleague to argue against your potential decisiondevils advocate. Whats the strongest reason to do something else? The second strongest reason? The third? Consider the position with an open mind. Avoid yes-men

The Overconfidence Trap: Even though most of us are not very good at making estimates or forecasts, we actually tend to be overconfident about our accuracy, leading to errors in judgment and bad decisions The Prudence Trap: Over-cautiousness, or prudence. When faced with high-stakes decisions, we adjust our estimates or forecasts just to be on the safe side The Recallability Trap: We frequently base our predictions about future events on our memory of past events, so can be overly influenced by dramatic eventsthose that leave a strong impression on our memory

At every stage of the decision-making process, psychological traps can influence the choices we make These traps can work in isolation, but also in concert

A dramatic first impression might anchor our thinking, and

then we might selectively seek out confirming evidence to justify our initial impression We make a hasty decision, and that decision establishes a new status quo. As our sunk costs mount, we become trapped, unable to find a new and possibly better course

The best protection against all psychological trapsin isolation or in combinationis awareness Build discipline into your decision-making process to uncover errors in thinking before they become errors in judgment