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Introduction
Discussion Topics
Introduction Downtown: The Nature of the Place Human Infrastructure and Leadership
Downtown Revitalization
Hope alone is an incomplete strategy.
Growing
Downtown Quality Community Value
High Average Troubled
Changing
Adapting Flexible
State of Downtown Boise27th Annual Meeting
Superior
Healthy Struggling
Retail
Housing Office Culture Entertainment Civic uses Open spaces Open Space
Institutions
Housing
Culture
Retail
Civic
Jobs
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Streets
Pedestrianways Bike paths Transit systems Public pulse points
Continuity
Attractive design
Historic connection
Sense of place
Human scale
Compact form
Open space
Meeting place Safe and comfortable Social and inviting Vibrant Interesting Sense of pride Return again and again
Strong brands and images Marketing and management High retail sales Profitable rents Effective parking Market responsiveness to change
Buying Power
Market Share
Loyalty
Continuing investment
Attracting new development Attracting people downtown evenings/ weekends Competition from discount stores and/or suburban malls Vacant/underused retail space Parking Shortage of suitable housing Deteriorated image Vacant/underused office space Preservation of older buildings Unattractive building facades Crime (real or perceived) Traffic circulation/congestion
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3.
Partnering
Can take place in:
Public-private partnerships
Public-public partnerships Multiparty alliances
Recognize that the most significant investments will come from the private sector. Either a business or a developer will be involved. And most investment starts with the developer who creates a home for business.
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Revenues have dropped Under-staffed Under-capitalized Great competition for public dollars Aging infrastructure Under-funded economic development efforts may have limited effectiveness in challenging markets Pursuit of transactions without a more comprehensive strategy Not always target driven
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Short-term Defined privately Available financing Market opportunity Cost of capital Return on investment Personal goals, e.g.:
Enhancing corporate status Pride in quality product Strength in marketplace
Public interest
Public perception
Political climate
Local Jurisdictions
Wants Assurance
State of Downtown Boise27th Annual Meeting
Wants Flexibility
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Responsibility
Private Joint
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You, Me, Us
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With choice, positive price value is essential People reject places and products that are not responsive to their needs, desires, or budget
Phase II - Expansion
Declining Vacancy New Construction
7 6
8 Cost Feasible
New Construction Rents
5 Declining Vacancy
No New Construction
16 1
Phase I - Recovery
Negative Rental Growth Below Inflation Rental Growth Rents Rapidly Rise Toward New Construction Levels High Rent Growth In Tight Market
Phase IV - Recession
Rent Growth Positive But Declining Below Inflation & Negative Rent Growth
Legg Mason Wood Walker, Inc. and Leland Consulting Group Source: Legg
Baby Boomers
Age 49 to 67 26% of the national population. Will downsize and urbanize Seek quality experiences and activities to stay healthy May extend employment, including part-time, to recuperate income lost during recession
Generation X
Age 34 to 48 21% of the national population Seek unique, urban, authentic, and edgy experiences Prime family years. Must balance family, work and play. Moving into prime earning potential
Generation Y
Age 19 to 33 28% of the national population Greatest diversity Use technology for social mobilization, at home, work & play Prime apartment rental years Bringing new technology and social habits to higher education and workplace
Aging Society
Generational Preferences
Baby Boomers and Gen Y
Up to
1/3
(25 Million)
of Baby Boomers are expected to downsize and urbanize, seeing themselves as forever young and wanting high quality experiences.
Sources: ULI, Deloitte, Leland Consulting Group
Generation X Generation Y
seek unique, urban, authentic, and edgy experiences.
Growing Diversity
Urban Housing
Adjacent residential and urban amenities Safety Large share of one and twoperson households Easy access to employment centers
Lodging
Visitor amenities and attractions Easy access to major thoroughfares Co-location with other hotels Visibility Parking capacity Business and tourists Events and conferences
Restaurant
Proximity to other retailers and restaurants View or attraction Parking capacity
Retail
High visibility Easily accessible Central location Manageable competitive environment Demographic match Anchor tenants Sense of place, safety, cleanliness Contiguity Parking capacity
Office
Easily accessible Center of a metro region Address status Proximity to suppliers and collaborator firms Parking capacity Proximity to support services Access to intra- and interregional transportation connections
Industrial
Access to intra- and interregional transportation connections including rail, water and air freight capacity Large parcels Parking capacity Trained workforce Access to suppliers Not adjacent to noncompatible uses
Industrial
Senior Housing
Single-Family
Medical Of f ice
Abysmal
Fair
Excellent
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A Value Proposition
Define, design, and implement urban mixed-use lifestyle communities that satisfy the needs of the three principal affected groups.
Developers/ investors Local jurisdictions Accelerate absorption and achieves financial expectations Instill pride and enthusiasm by transitioning from sterile subdivisions to livable communities Create a high level of consumer satisfaction and emotional attachment
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URBAN HOUSING
Fundamental changes are taking place. Currently in transition between abandoning old and accepting new realities. State of Downtown Boise
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A Premise
Profound and permanent changes are taking place in America that are altering consumer behavior and motivation.
Market Depth
Macroeconomic Environment Geopolitical Environment Political and Regulatory Environment
Real Estate Markets and Demographics Consumer Confidence Consumer Attitude Consumer Behavior Developers who understand and appropriately respond to these changes will be the successful community builders of the future. Those who do not will fail or underperform.
Only
(23 thousand)
27%
of Boise households are made up of 3 to 4 people. Over 65% are made of 1 and 2 person households.
Cottage Housing
Mixed-Use Mid-Rise
Downtown Portland (Pearl District) took 15 years Small steps Developers and market become educated Success builds confidence Move into bigger projects More expensive construction
Transition 2003 10+ story high rises, steel, concrete and glass
Full Evolution Very sophisticated The district as a place and destination Self market National image
Warehouse/loft conversions Inexpensive construction Sales < $200 per square foot
Condominiums Apartments More expensive, quality construction Sales $200 to $300 per square foot
Intensity of Development
Strong Correlation
Net Worth
Income Age
Projects typically build into higher densities and greater amenities over time.
Generally, baby boomers are much more amenity sensitive than younger buyers who are more willing to pioneer a district.
Intensity
Time
Anywhere Office
Recreation
Programmed activities
Concierge services
Emotional Draw
For people living downtown.
Lease or sell multiple products at varying price points to a broad and diverse market to accelerate cash flow and absorption while simultaneously reducing risk and financial exposure.
Carefully control development through architectural review to ensure quality and design aesthetic is coordinated and consistent with broader development.
Anticipate Change
A key task is to anticipate and translate the effects of change into strategic, market-driven business plans that integrate newly defined elements to create successful urban mixed-use residential environments.
A key differentiator is a strategic and comprehensive marketing and branding program based on market intelligence
RETAIL
Source: ForexLive
Best Buy
Grocery
Walmart: Marketside ~20,000 sq. ft. Safeway: The Market ~15,000 sq. ft.
Source: Retail Traffic Magazine, Supermarket News
Churches
Medical Offices
Ten to 15 years ago, box stores would not have moved into downtowns. Building suburban box stores is simple.
The only standard in developing an urban box store is the lack of standardization. Boise does not have a department store downtown; however, as more housing is developed within the central city area, more retail will follow.
The role of entertainment, art and culture in downtown retail is strong and growing. Entertainment increasingly serves as anchors. As suburban markets saturate, big boxes seek to expand into growing urban markets. Urban formats secure downtown populations with national retailers and box stores.
Shift in Preference
Ages 9 to 11 prefer malls Ages 20 to 30 prefer brick and mortar Ages 50 to 68 prefer downtown, lifestyle centers
In this post-overstoring, post-overmalling world, there has been a fundamental shift in the way shoppers think about consumption. -Wendy Liebermann, CEO of WSL Strategic Retail
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Retail Development
Major tenants want to work with single developers who build multiple (12-15) stores at a time. This is attractive because it can bring down rental costs by half, while sales account for 80 percent of what would be at a mall. Department stores are only going to big cities.
3.
4. 5.
Outlet Malls Fitness Centers as Retail Anchors Increased Mobile Capabilities Same-day Delivery Services More attractions and Service-oriented Business
International Council of Shopping Centers Annual MidAtlantic Conference, 2014
Outlet Malls
Due to recent expansion in the past few years, outlet malls are the fastest growing segment in retail, and this is not expected to change.
While they have been previously built on the outskirts of town, outlet centers are moving closer to major cities. Currently, there are more than 225 outlet malls in the US, at least 40 have opened since 2006.
State of Downtown Boise27th Annual Meeting
Developers are increasingly looking to gyms and fitness centers to draw from a stream of regular customers. Fitness centers remain one of the last remaining businesses that draw in a physical presence.
International Council of Shopping Centers Annual Mid-Atlantic Conference, 2014
Online and in-person sales have combined rather than compete for success (also known as Omnichannel retailing). Consumers can link accounts and smartphone apps to use mobile payments such as Google Wallet and Paypal to make purchases online and inperson.
Source: Google.com/wallet/
Hair Salons
Specialty Shops
Restaurants
Retailers personalize solutions Integrate technology Smart phones have become a shopping channel Turn waiting time into shopping time
Emphasis on experience Carefully planned continuity and merchandising mix Entertaining street scene Cleanliness, security, and safety Consistent hours
OFFICE / EMPLOYMENT
Weak economy
Office Space
Typical Office User Cost savings
250
New Target 200 to 225 SF
200
150
1980s
2000s
Source: Metro Monitor (www.brookings.edu/metromonitor) Showing the 100 Largest Metro Areas by Population, Change in jobs from pre-recession peak employment through the fourth quarter of 2013
Source: First Look: Amenities Abound in Salesforce.com New Hillsboro Office, The Oregonian, September 11,2012
Personal office spaces are typically occupied 48 percent of the typical work day.*
Time spent working at a desk is usually spent on the computer or phone, which can be done in any environment. Organizations across all industries have been seeking innovative workplace design strategies to gain a competitive advantage for optimized space efficiency, collaboration and creativity.
Source: CBREs Workplace Strategy group * Figures vary depending on the type of work and focusbut is relatively consistent
A key impact of Generation Y will be on the orientation of office space: creating an integrated workplace which combines the need for more efficient workspace with flexible meeting rooms and more fun/social space. Colliers
Fewer young people to replace the retiring Baby Boomers Projected by 2018, almost a quarter of the US workforce will be 55 or older, ages 25 to 34 will also risebut at a slower rate
Percentage of labor by age group from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Handbook, 2010-11 Edition, http://www.bls.gov/oco/oco2003.html
Be flexible about flexibility (teleworking, mobility) Digitize and implement cloud-based software
HR + IT + RE Focus on gain rather than loss: Create offices worth going to Define the goals of change Recruitment and retention Improved engagement and job satisfaction
Source: Alternative Workplace Strategies: Understanding Process and Approach, Tom Mulhern, 07-06-2011
Brand and identity of space Personal lighting Noise control Thermal comfort Sense of place
Up to
2/3
Successful Projects
Successful public-private development projects require a holistic and balanced approach in addition to solid experience.
Market
Finance
Design
Transportation
Planning
Finance
Design
(liner stores).
Continuity is critical, but risk can
Retail
Is the new living room.
Strategic Differentiators
RFQ vs RFP
Simple to Prepare Likely to Generate More Submittals
The lower time investment encourages a larger pool of interested parties. The public agency benefits.
RFQ
Development teams submit a cover letter, resumes, and qualifications. Information about similar projects the developer has completed in the past.
Beauty Contest
Decisions sometimes get made based on the prettiest picture. However, the design is at a very preliminary level that will most likely change throughout the project.
RFP
Less complex Early stage Outline deal points Due diligence stage May/may not be legally binding .but politically committing
Next step after the MOU Master legal document to structure relationship Legally binding Extremely detailed Roles and responsibilities Recourse
Metropolitan Area Projects (MAPS), Oklahoma City OCMAPS for Kids, Oklahoma City Transit Alliance, Denver Coalition for Smart Transit, Denver Chicago Metropolis 2020 2015 Transportation Alliance, Salt Lake City Portland Region Westside Economic Alliance Denver Partnership
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Phone: 503-222-1600
Email: tingvaldsen@lelandconsulting.com
Our best wishes for continuing success for the Great City of Boise!
State of Downtown Boise27th Annual Meeting
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