<a name="Introduction"></a> <media nid="179431" align="right"></media> <h3><a name="Europe">Europe</a></h3> European Union member states are not as committed to the

bloc as the once !ere" #he states that $oined the union be%ore &''' did so !ith the understanding that the union !as created to contain (erman ambitions" #he states that $oined a%ter &''' did so !ith the understanding that the union !ould protect them %rom )ussian domination" *ll members $oined !ith the additional understanding that the union !ould grant them !ealth" +o!e,er- all those understandings are no! in breach" In the past ear- (erman has steadil re!ired European structures to its ad,antage" #he (erman.dominated /and <lin0 nid="199142">ne!l modi%ied</lin0> bailout %und no! operates largel independent o% EU authorit or scrutin " * rea!a0ening (erman has disco,ered that it has man reasons to collaborate !ith a strengthening )ussia3 energ securit and limiting U"4" in%luence throughout Eurasia" *nd o,erall- the European econom is stagnant at best" (erman.imposed austerit measures are slo!ing economies %urther and might ha,e alread created a recession %or Europe as a !hole" 5ne o% the %e! European states still sho!ing signs o% economic acti,it is (erman " 4#)*#65) anticipates that ongoing e%%orts to strengthen the euro7one8s bailout %und .. a precondition %or an solution that !ould sa,e Europe .. !ill continue apace in the coming 9uarter" :e do not e;pect a (ree0 de%ault- euro dissolution or general European catastrophe in the %ourth 9uarter o% &'11" <ut the %ondness EU member countries ha,e %elt %or the bloc is ending" In the %ourth 9uarter- the leaders and masses o% the &7 EU states !ill %eel nostalgic %or the past but un!illing to bear the collecti,e %inancial burden re9uired to preser,e it- disillusioned !ith !hat Europe is becoming but onl !illing to blame others and most o% all e,aluating the options the might ha,e i% the European e;periment comes to an inglorious end" 4e,eral !ea0 points in the European s stem could trigger a cascade o% e,ents that !ould accelerate that end" #he most li0el are3 <ul><li> #he Italian go,ernment and <elgian careta0er go,ernment are both in precarious positions" *n Italian go,ernment collapse li0el !ould o,er!helm the %ailsa%es the Europeans ha,e thus %ar established" <elgium does not e,en ha,e a go,ernment in an practical sense- ma0ing it impossible %or <russels to negotiate .. much less implement .. austerit measures" * %inancial brea0 in <elgium !ould usher the %inancial crisis in to the =orthern European core"</li> <li> >olitical miscalculations or opposition to more bailouts in (erman could limit %inancial support to (reece at a 0e moment" (reece is li,ing on bailout %unds and !ill de%ault on its debt should the pa out schedule be more than moderatel interrupted" 4uch interruption !ould trigger a %inancial cascade- starting in (reece and ending in the :estern European ban0s be%ore EU bailout programs are e;panded su%%icientl to handle the %allout"</li></ul>

<media nid="111443" align="right"></media> <h3><a name="4outh *sia">4outh *sia</a></h3> U"4".#aliban negotiations mediated b >a0istan !ill ad,ance in the %ourth 9uarter" 5n the sur%ace- these tal0s !ill appear to be %ruitless as all in,ol,ed parties attempt to strengthen their negotiating positions and %ringe groups tr to derail the process" >a0istani a%%iliates and *%ghan #aliban a%%iliates !ill launch attac0s to increase U"4" desperation to e;it *%ghanistan- !hile the <lin0 nid="&'&177">United 4tates !ill tr to %orce >a0istan</lin0> to accept an ultimatum3 ?ooperate in %acilitating and insuring an agreement !ith the #aliban to place strong constraints on transnational $ihadist acti,it in the region- or ris0 the United 4tates ta0ing the !ar into >a0istan itsel%" #hough the United 4tates %aces man disad,antages in these negotiations- :ashington !ill enhance its position b <lin0 nid="199931">decreasing its dependence on >a0istani suppl lines</lin0>" #he seemingl chaotic tal0s !ill intensi% o,er the ne;t three months- but 4#)*#65) belie,es the %undamentals o% these negotiations .. the United 4tates8 strategic need to e;tricate its %orces %rom *%ghanistan- >a0istan8s need to remain cohesi,e and rebuild its in%luence in *%ghanistan !ith U"4" support to counter India and the #aliban8s need to dominate a post.!ar political settlement .. !ill carr the negotiations %or!ard- though not necessaril at a stead pace" <media nid="179434" align="right"></media> <h3><a name="@iddle East">@iddle East</a></h3> <strong>Iran-Iraq</strong> #he ne;t three months !ill be <lin0 nid="&'&411">critical %or Iran</lin0>" < the end o% the 9uarter- the United 4tates !ill %ace a deadline to complete its troop !ithdra!al %rom Ira9" #he increasingl ner,ous *rab states in the >ersian (ul% region !ill not ,ie! <lin0 nid="&'1714">!hate,er ambiguous troop presence the United 4tates maintains in Ira9</lin0> be ond that deadline as a su%%icient deterrent against Iran" #ehran !ill !ant to e;ploit its *rab neighbors8 sense o% ,ulnerabilit to reshape the region8s politics !hile it still has the upper hand" #o this end- Iran !ill use a blend o% conciliator and threatening mo,es to tr and dri,e the United 4tates and its *rab neighbors to!ard an accommodation on Iran8s terms" Iran !ill ha,e to !or0 !ithin constraints- ho!e,er" #hough #ehran8s strongest co,ert capabilities are in Ira9- Iran li0el !ill e;ercise restraint in this arena to a,oid gi,ing the United 4tates $usti%ication %or a prolonged militar presence" @ean!hile- Iran !ill continue e%%orts to build up assets in <ahrain- but its best chance o% success is in the Ae,ant- !here #ehran li0el can e;ploit its e;isting militant pro; relationships to accelerate an alread de,eloping Eg pt.Israel crisis that !ould 0eep Israel bus and distract %rom 4 ria8s internal troubles" Bespite Iran8s best e%%orts- !e do not anticipate that

#ehran !ill be able to %orce a %undamental political realignment in the region as earl as this 9uarter- though Iran !ill emerge %rom this 9uarter stronger" <strong>Egypt-Israel-Palestinian Territories</strong> #he Eg ptians are scheduled to go to the polls %or the countr 8s %irst post.@ubara0 parliamentar elections in =o,ember- and Eg pt !ill be consumed !ith this issue %or the entire %ourth 9uarter" #he 4upreme ?ouncil o% the *rmed 6orces /4?*6C has been steadil la ing the ground!or0 %or an election that !ill not allo! an one political grouping to dominate the others- and !ill see0 to ensure that the di,isions !ithin the opposition !ill translate into a go,ernment that remains !ea0" #he militant en,ironment in the <lin0 nid="&''714">>alestinian #erritories</lin0> and the 4inai >eninsula !ill aggra,ate political tensions in Eg pt" +amas has a strategic interest in e;ploiting the alread sha0 political transition in Eg pt to undermine the Eg ptian militar regime and create an opportunit %or more li0e.minded Eg ptian groups li0e the @uslim <rotherhood to enhance their po!er and %undamentall change Eg pt8s polic to!ard Israel" 4e,eral other parties- ranging %rom Iran and 4 ria to al Daeda %actions operating in the 4inai- also !ant to create a militar con%rontation bet!een Eg pt and Israel" #he coming months !ill be e;tremel tr ing %or the 4?*6 and Israel as both attempt to pre,ent +amas and its a%%iliates %rom creating the conditions %or an Eg pt.Israel crisis" +amas !ill be operating under hea, constraints as it attempts to lure Israel into a militar operation in the >alestinian #erritories" #hough a crisis bet!een Eg pt and Israel is b no means assured as earl as this coming 9uarter- the seeds o% that con%lict are being so!n" <strong>Syria</strong> 4#)*#65) does not e;pect an dramatic shi%ts to its 4 ria %orecast this 9uarter" 4 ria !ill continue struggling to stamp out protests- but neither the %ractured protest mo,ement nor the regime has the resources to o,er!helm the other" #he 4 rian regime !ill de,ote increasing attention to <lin0 nid="&'&2&3">rooting out dissent</lin0> among the upper ran0s o% the *la!ite.dominated militar E this d namic !ill need to be !atched closel %or signs o% serious %racturing !ithin the regime" #he regime !ill %ind relie% in the li0elihood that <lin0 nid="&'&17&">4 ria8s opposition</lin0> !ill remain !ithout meaning%ul %oreign sponsorship through the end o% the ear" <strong>Turkey</strong> #ur0e !ill continue encountering obstacles as it tries to push its regional re.emergence be ond rhetoric- especiall in the <lin0 nid="&'&113">eastern @editerranean</lin0>" @ore importantl - #ur0e !ill ha,e to pa more attention to Ira9- !here a po!er ,acuum is !aiting to be %illed b Iran as the United 4tates dra!s do!n its militar presence in the %ourth 9uarter"

#he ne;t three months !ill see <lin0 nid="&'&'47">tensions bet!een Iran and #ur0e </lin0> gro! 9uietl as #ur0e increases its e%%orts to counterbalance Iran in the region- though these e%%orts !ill onl be in the nascent stages this 9uarter" Iranmean!hile- !ill rel primaril on the shared threat o% Furdish militanc as it tries to maintain a basis %or cooperation !ith #ur0e in light o% *n0ara and #ehran8s gro!ing strategic di%%erences" <lin0 nid="&'1493">#ur0ish.Israeli relations</lin0> are unli0el to impro,e in the coming months as #ur0e tries to use the deterioration o% its ties !ith Israel to enhance its regional credibilit " #ur0e !ill not be able to count on the United 4tates8 %ull support as it becomes more asserti,e in the eastern @editerranean- et gi,en :ashington8s needs in the region /especiall regarding Iran and- in the longer term- )ussiaC- the United 4tates !ill e,entuall ma0e its relationship !ith *n0ara a higher priorit " <strong>Yemen</strong> Gemen !ill remain in political crisis this 9uarter as <lin0 nid="&'&311">Gemeni >resident *li *bdullah 4aleh</lin0> and his clan continue e%%orts to regain their clout in the capital and undercut the opposition" 4treet battles in and around the capital bet!een pro. and anti.regime %orces can be e;pected- !ith 4aleh8s %action retaining the upper hand et still unable to 9uash the opposition" <strong>Libya</strong> 6riction among the ,arious %actions competing %or control o,er Aib a !ill increase in the %ourth 9uarter- as the loose alliance o% anti.(adha%i militias see0s to eliminate the regime lo alists8 %inal strongholds" 4#)*#65) does not %oresee a dra!n out insurgenc b pro. (adha%i %orces- but e,en i% the =ational #ransitional ?ouncil /=#?C declares the countr 8s liberation in the %ourth 9uarter .. an act !hich the =#? has said is a precondition to an <lin0 nid="&'1&7H">%ormation o% an transitional go,ernment</lin0> .. the resulting political !rangling !ill lea,e the countr !ithout a uni%ied leadership that can mo,e Aib a %or!ard to!ard elections" <media nid="179432" align="right"></media> <h3><a name="6ormer 4o,iet Union">6ormer 4o,iet Union</a></h3> <strong>#he Fremlin- the #andem and Elections</strong> #he announcement that <lin0 nid="&'&41H">)ussian >rime @inister Iladimir >utin !ill run %or president</lin0> in @arch &'1& !ill lead to man shi%ts in the ne;t three months" 4#)*#65) said recentl that >utin !ould onl return to the presidenc i% there !ere a need %or the Fremlin to be seen as stronger and more asserti,e on the global stage" ?learl )ussia belie,es that current and upcoming e,ents .. the euro7one crisis- !hich is destabili7ing most o% Europe- and stagnant negotiations !ith the United 4tates and =*#5 o,er securit issues .. !ill re9uire a more asserti,e Fremlin /or at least the perception o% oneC" #he reali7ation that >utin !ill return to )ussia8s top post !ill begin spreading through the %ormer 4o,iet states- Europe and the United 4tates- though it !ill not lead to a dramatic shi%t in relations !ith @osco! until &'1&"

#he most immediate e%%ects o% >utin8s decision to return to the presidenc !ill be %elt inside )ussia and the Fremlin in the %ourth 9uarter" >utin8s candidac !as announced at the United )ussia ?on%erence in a bid to settle an dispute and remo,e %ocus %rom >utin8s tandem !ith current )ussian >resident Bmitri @ed,ede, ahead o% legislati,e elections scheduled %or Becember" #he announcement !as meant to strengthen support %or and con%idence in the Fremlin- >utin and United )ussia ahead o% the elections" =o! the Fremlin !ill %ocus on consolidating !ins %or United )ussia and >utin8s political umbrella mo,ement- the *ll >opular 6ront" +o!e,er- the announcement has e;posed a deep ri%t !ithin the Fremlin" =ot man !ithin the )ussian go,ernment are upset about >utin8s return to the presidenc - but the are concerned about @ed,ede,8s %uture role" @an ?abinet ministers !ant @ed,ede, to become spea0er o% the )ussian parliament instead o% prime minister- because i% he ta0es the premiership he !ill become their direct superior" 4uch disagreements !ill occur throughout the %ourth 9uarter and could in,ol,e some o% the most important %igures and policies in )ussia- such as the Fremlin8s implementation o% its moderni7ation and pri,ati7ation programs" Becisions about !ho !ill mo,e !here !ill come at the end o% the ear and into the @arch election" <strong>)ussia8s )esurgence</strong> In its dealings !ith the United 4tates- Iran and Europe- )ussia !ill continue its dual %oreign polic in !hich it appears more conciliator !hile retaining its abilit to be aggressi,e" #his dual trac0 is meant to continue rolling bac0 U"4" in%luence in Eurasia !hile solidi% ing @osco!8s position" )ussia had anticipated that its recent maneu,ers !ith :estern po!ers .. particularl its stance against U"4" ballistic missile de%ense /<@BC plans and its counterproposal to those plans .. !ould di,ide the Europeans and allo! @osco! to begin <lin0 nid="&'141'">pressuring ?entral Europe</lin0>" )ussia8s plans on this %ront !ere to reach a %inale at a series o% planned meetings !ith =*#5 in the %ourth 9uarter" +o!e,erthese meetings ha,e become less critical- as larger issues ha,e emerged .. mainl the European %inancial crisis" It is not that the Europeans are not concerned about )ussiaE rather- there is so much tension !ithin Europe o,er %inances- alliances and the balance o% po!er on the ?ontinent that securit issues !ill ha,e to !ait" #his does not mean )ussia !ill sta 9uiet on these issues- particularl ahead o% a sle! o% meetings !ith the Europeans- =*#5 and the United 4tates" )ussia !ill continue tr ing to pressure all parties in,ol,ed in the <@B issue and !ill reconnect !ith <lin0 nid="&'1H44">Iran</lin0> in order to shore up its position" <ut @osco! 0no!s its attempt to split the Europeans and United 4tates o,er securit issues !ill not be reali7ed $ust et" :ith securit issues sidelined- )ussia !ill tr to ta0e ad,antage o% the Europeans8 crises in the %ourth 9uarter" )ussia is alread purchasing some choice assets in Europe- and it is !atching to see i% it can %urther its ad,antage .. possibl b dumping large amounts o%

cash into Europe to help curb the crisis /or so @osco! !ould !ant the Europeans to belie,eC" #his !ill not occur be%ore the end o% the ear- but )ussia !ill spend the %ourth 9uarter %ormulating its options" <media nid="1794&H" align="right"></media> <h3><a name="East *sia">East *sia</a></h3> <strong>?hina8s Econom </strong> ?hina !ill see a temporar easing o% in%lation pressure- though such easing ill still slo in translating to househol!" <lin0 nid="&''337"><ei$ing !ill be cautious</lin0> about signs o% a resurgence due to e;ternal li9uidit and continued go,ernment.led domestic in,estment" <ei$ing li0el !ill be more !illing to accept moderate in%lation gi,en the issues it is %acing3 <ul><li> * slo!do!n !ill continue !ith no sign o% radical polic changes %rom <ei$ingat least ahead o% ma$or economic con%erence in Becember and particularl in light o% the <lin0 nid="19H34H">!orsening economic situation in Europe</lin0>- !hich is e;pected to a%%ect ?hina8s e;port sector"</li> <li> <ei$ing !ill use polic tools to continue %ighting in%lation !ithout a%%ecting gro!th %urther" Bepending upon the state o% gro!th- a chance %or a polic change could occur in Becember to pa,e the !a %or a smooth transition in &'1&" </li> <li> #hough tightened economic controls are li0el to dominate the %ourth 9uarter- the deteriorating %inancial health o% small and medium.si7ed enterprises !ill re9uire greater polic assistance- including %iscal spending or %le;ibilit in ad$usting monetar polic "</li> <li> <ei$ing !ill also clamp do!n on media and ideological e;pression to 9uash unrest and local grie,ances out o% concern %or stabilit - but this means there is a greater chance that protests could be mishandled- !hich !ould also create concerns %or stabilit " </li></ul> <strong>U"4".?hinese )elations</strong> ?hina and the United 4tates could ha,e a direct con%rontation o,er trade disputes and currenc during the %ourth 9uarter" Bepending on ?hina8s domestic situation .. particularl regarding the econom and social stabilit .. <ei$ing could consider it bene%icial to increase tensions !ith the United 4tates to distract the public %rom domestic issues" )elations bet!een ?hina and the United 4tates !ill a%%ect U"4" >resident <arac0 5bama8s attempts to strengthen relations !ith :ashington8s regional allies during his *sia tour in =o,ember" U"4".?hinese relations !ill also color :ashington8s attempt to demonstrate a rene!ed commitment in the *sia >aci%ic region ,ia se,eral multilateral mechanisms including U"4".Japanese.Indian trilateral tal0s- the East *sia 4ummit and the *sia >aci%ic Economic ?ooperation %orum" <strong>4outh ?hina 4ea #ensions</strong>

<lin0 nid="&'&231">#ensions in the 4outh ?hina 4ea</lin0> !ill be the main regional securit issue in the ne;t countries" ?laimant countries and outside pla ers li0el !ill accelerate mo,es to dra! greater international attention to the ongoing maritime disputes" ?hina !ill increase its diplomatic e%%orts to contain the issueE these e%%orts could include economic bene%its and political pressure" ?hina8s steps !ill depend on the United 4tates8 mo,es in the ne;t 9uarter- though as the disputes in the 4outh ?hina 4ea gro! more complicated- miscalculations could lead to une;pected conse9uences /possibl e,en in,ol,ing militariesC" <media nid="179433" align="right"></media> <h3><a name="Aatin *merica">Aatin *merica</a></h3> <strong>Iene7uela</strong> :hile the status o% <lin0 nid="&'&231">Iene7uelan >resident +ugo ?ha,e78s health</lin0> remains a serious concern and the most critical o% state secrets in Iene7uela- the regime does not appear to be in a rush to prepare %or ?ha,e78s imminent departure" Elections ha,e been set %or 5ctober &'1&- gi,ing the regime time to prepare %or a transition o% po!er- i% one is %orthcoming" #his ne;t 9uarter !ill be dominated b the implementation o% ma$or economic re%orms that include the <lin0 nid="199H24">Ae de ?ostos >recios</lin0> and the nationali7ation o% the gold industr " ?ha,e7 !ill also be occupied !ith mediating <lin0 nid="199439">competition !ithin the inner circle elite</lin0>" >rotests b groups spanning the political spectrum ha,e become more common throughout the countr and are e;pected to continue gro!ing" <arring an outside shoc0 li0e a collapse in oil prices- no ma$or changes to o,erall stabilit are e;pected in the ne;t 9uarter" <strong><ra7il</strong> <ra7il !ill remain %ocused on economic management this 9uarter" Its dual goal o% managing in%lation !hile stimulating the local econom !ill re9uire <lin0 nid="&'1299">incremental polic changes</lin0> as the countr reacts to shi%ting pro$ections o% global gro!th" Increased trade protections are li0el " #he relationships most li0el to gro! tense o,er increased trade protections !ill be those !ith ?hina an! #rgentina" <strong>@e;ico</strong> @e;ican drug cartels continue %ragmenting ,iolentl - spreading ,olatilit throughout the countr " #here are strong indications that <lin0 nid="&'12'1">%actional ,iolence !ithin the (ul% ?artel</lin0> could erupt- !hich !ould lead securit conditions in #amaulipasIeracru7 and =ue,o Aeon states to deteriorate in the near %uture" 6ighting bet!een the (ul% ?artel and Aos Ketas !ill intensi% in @e;ico8s northeastern states" )elati,e calm in the =orth!est- particularl in 4onora and <a$a ?ali%ornia del =orte- !ill continue in the %ourth 9uarter as the 4inaloa cartel e;erts near.complete control o,er the region" *s man as se,en di%%erent %actions and organi7ations are battling %or control o,er transportation corridors in the central- south.central and >aci%ic coast regions" Jalisco- =a arit(uerrero- ?olima- @ichoacan- 5a;aca- and 4inaloa states !ill be particularl ,ulnerable in the ne;t 9uarter"

<media nid="179437" align="right"></media> <h3><a name="4ub.4aharan *%rica">4ub.4aharan *%rica</a></h3> <strong>4omalia </strong> #he *%rican Union peace0eeping mission in 4omalia /*@I45@C !ill e;pand b 3-''' soldiers- bringing its total %orce le,el to 1&-'''" #he incoming peace0eepers- !ho !ill come %rom B$ibouti and 4ierra Aeone- !ill be deplo ed to @ogadishu earl this 9uarter to rein%orce the current %orces- dra!n %rom Uganda and <urundi" #hese additional peace0eepers !ill enable *@I45@ to consolidate control o% @ogadishu this 9uartergi,ing 4omalia8s #ransitional 6ederal (o,ernment /#6(C a secure space to !or0 on go,ernance and deli,ering public ser,ices" *l 4habaab !ill remain di,ided and unli0el to reuni% e,en loosel or surrender to the #6(" :hile *@I45@ and the #6( !ill not conduct o%%ensi,e operations against the 4omali $ihadists outside o% @ogadishu this 9uarter- <lin0 nid="&''179">*l 4habaab8s constituent groups</lin0> !ill see their range o% operations limited to narro! sections in southern 4omalia" <strong>=igeria</strong> =igerian >resident (oodluc0 Jonathan8s go,ernment !ill continue grappling !ith <o0o +aram in the %ourth 9uarter" #he go,ernment !ill engage dissenting politicians %rom the countr 8s north !ho are s mpathetic to the =igerian Islamists in negotiations- o%%ering to trade patronage %or limits on support %or <lin0 nid="&'&444"><o0o +aram</lin0>" #he go,ernment !ill build and decentrali7e its intelligence capabilit .. albeit slo!l .. to isolate hardline elements o% the %undamentalist sect not interested in negotiations and maintain Joint #as0 6orce deplo ments o% arm personnel to interdict radical <o0o +aram members" 4eparatel - the =igerian go,ernment !ill 0eep %unneling mone to its =iger Belta amnest program- supporting !hat is e%%ecti,el a !el%are scheme %or militants in the oil. producing region in order to 0eep oil production running smoothl " #he militants- %rom groups such as the @o,ement %or the Emancipation o% the =iger Belta- !ill compl !ith the go,ernment- but both the Jonathan administration and the militants !ill <lin0 nid="&'1394">sa%eguard the militants8 capabilities</lin0> %or political le,erage /though this !ill not be used in the %ourth 9uarterC" <strong>*ngola and the Bemocratic )epublic o% the ?ongo </strong> #he neighboring countries o% *ngola and the Bemocratic )epublic o% the ?ongo /B)?C !ill hold elections o% sorts this 9uarter3 #he <lin0 nid="1H3741">B)? !ill hold a presidential election in late =o,ember</lin0> and *ngola !ill hold a ruling part leadership con,ention in Becember" <oth instances !ill be opportunities %or the opposition to organi7e street protests aimed at destabili7ing the incumbent- though such demonstrations !ill not meaning%ull a%%ect either go,ernment" <oth go,ernments could use the elections as an opportunit to harbor militia or militar %orces to destabili7e each other" *ngola is not li0el to ha,e its armed %orces inter,ene during the B)? elections- but its relations !ith B)? >resident Joseph Fabila8s

go,ernment are cooler than the !ere in &''2- !hen *ngola prepared its ?abinda.based units to occup Finshasa to guarantee Fabila8s election" 6or its part- Finshasa !ill not acti,el harbor <lin0 nid="&'1'91">anti.Auanda militias</lin0>- though it !ill continue ignoring migrations across its shared border b *ngolans and ?ongolese in,ol,ed in smuggling and illegal mining acti,ities" <strong>#he 4ahel</strong> #he 4ahel sub.region o% :est *%rica !ill become cro!ded as some militants /and their !eaponsC return %rom the battleground in Aib a" )egional *%rican and %oreign go,ernment agencies /including <lin0 nid="&'&HH7">U"4" go,ernment elements</lin0>C !ill strengthen intelligence ac9uisition and sharing e%%orts- %ocusing on the threat o% terrorism %rom *l Daeda in the Islamic @aghreb /*DI@C and #uareg rebels largel %rom *lgeria- @auritania- =iger and @ali" *DI@ %ighters and hostile #uareg elements !ill not ha,e political space- or %reedom %rom intelligence agencies and militar %orces- to consolidate their %orces %rom the dispersed camps the maintain throughout the 4ahel" #his means constraints !ill be in place to limit an increase in militant acti,ities in the region"