Simple Linear Regression: Interpreting Minitab Output

The Simple Linear Regression Model

The following analysis utilizes the Beers and BAC data. The Minitab regression output has all of its essential features labeled. It is important that you can understand and interpret this output. Note: In Minitab Options, I re uested that the model predict BAC after 4 beers! and I specified that the full table of fits and residuals be displayed in Results. To construct the graph with prediction inter"als and confidence inter"als! go to #tat $egression %itted &ine 'lot( in Options! chec) Display Confidence Interval and Display Prediction Interval.

Regression Analysis: BAC versus Beers

The regression equation is BAC = - 0.0127 + 0.0180 Beers

b0
Predictor Constant Beers Coef -0.01270 0.017$!"

b1
S Coef 0.012!" 0.002"02

Standard error of 1
T -1.00 7."8 P 0.##2 0.000

Test stat. for test H0: 1=0

!"alue for test H0: 1=0

S = 0.020""10

%-Sq = 80.0&

%-Sq'ad() = 78.!&

#stimate of $ S% of & for fi'ed (

Ana*+sis of ,ariance Source %egression %esidua* rror Tota* -. 1 1" 10

r)=SSM*SST

SS 0.02##70 0.000800 0.02$220

/S 0.02##70 0.000"18

. 00.$"

P 0.000

%egrees of +reedom for ,-.s and Signifi/an/e Tests 0n!)1

12s 1 2 # . . 1! Beers 0.00 2.00 $.00 ".00 BAC 0.10000 0.0#000 0.1$000 0.00000 .it 0.07712 0.02#2# 0.1"8$7 0.00$10

SSM SS# SST

S .it 0.0001# 0.008"7 0.01128 0.000"7

s or MS#

t)=02.431)=+

%esidua* 0.02288 0.00!77 0.0"10# -0.00$10

#stimates the "ariation in the estimated mean St %esid response for a gi"en set 1.1! of predi/tor "alues. The 0.#! smaller, the more pre! 2."1% /ise .
-0."!

% denotes an o2ser3ation 4ith a *arge standardi5ed residua*.

'

* y 4

* y4!4 y

Predicted ,a*ues for 6e4 12ser3ations 6e4 12s 1 .it 0.00$10 S .it 0.000"7 $0& C7 '0.0"7"28 0.0708$) $0& P7 '0.01#778 0.10"0")

,a*ues of Predictors for 6e4 12ser3ations 6e4 12s 1 Beers ".00

5otes a6out the a6o"e output:

* y

Interpretation of bo and b+ The intercept! bo , -...+/0! estimates the mean blood alcohol le"el 1y2 when the number of beers 132 is zero. In this e3ample! 3,. is outside the range of the independent "ariable! so it is not meaningfully interpretable. It is li)ely in this e3ample that when the number of beers is zero! the BAC would also be zero. The intercept is accordingly "ery close to zero. The slope! b+ , ...+4.! implies that for each beer a student drin)s 1unit increase in 2! there is an associated increase in BAC 1 2 of ...+4.. Residual Plots 5ou should always chec) the assumptions of the model. If the assumptions are not "alid! the linear model may be incorrect. The model assumes that the residuals 1also referred to as de"iations or errors2 are normally distributed! with mean zero and standard de"iation . In Minitab you can e3amine the residuals and Normal probability plots with #tat $egression $esidual plots. There are no e3treme "alues or patterns appearing in the plots and the residuals appear to conform to a Normal distribution. Confidence Intervals and Significance Tests about the slope + In this unit! we will not concern oursel"es with inference for o . 6uite often! bo is of no practical use. 1i2 The degrees of freedom associated with CI7s and significance testing for &inear $egression is n 8 /. This is because we are estimating two parameters. 1ii2 %or inference we use the "alue of the standard error of the estimated coefficient b+ . This can be found from the computer output! and for our e3ample Sb+ is e ual to ..../. 9e can confirm that the t-"alue 10.:42 found in the output is correct using the e uation t = 1iii2 b+ SEb+

%or Ho : + = . the -"alue is .... The p-"alue is the probability of obtaining a test statistic that is at least as e3treme as the calculated "alue if there is actually no difference 1null hypothesis is true2. 9ith a p-"alue of ...! there is "ery strong e"idence to suggest that the simple linear regression model is useful for BAC.

Interpreting r) The r/ "alue listed on the output is 4.;! which is implies that about 4.; of the sample "ariation in blood alcohol le"el 1y2 is e3plained by the number of beers a student drin)s 1 x2 in a straight-line model. There are li)ely other "ariables that affect BAC. Confidence Interval for a Mean Response &oo) at the graph on the ne3t page. Notice how the confidence inter"als widen as the "alue of from its mean. is further

Fitted Line Plot

!"C # - 0.01270 $ 0.01796 !eers 0.20
Regression 95% CI 95% I S R-Sq R-Sq(adj) 0.0204410 80.0% 78.6%

0.15

0.10 BAC 0.05 0.00 -0.05 0 1 2 3 4 5 Beers 6 7 8 9

This is a reason to be cautious about e3trapolating. <"en if the relationship holds outside the range of 3! we can see that the confidence inter"als are so wide that the predicted "alue is of little use.