INDEX 1. ABSTRACT 2. INTRODUCTION 3. RESULT AND ANALYSIS OF GAME 4. UML DIAGRAMS FOR THE GAME 5. SCREEN SHOTS 6.

CONCLUSION 7. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 8. FUTURE WORK 9. REFERENCES

Abstract: Blackjack is the most popular table game in casinos because it is one of few games where the object is to beat the dealer. This type of game allows the player to use certain skills to guide the success or failure of a player against the dealer. With basic strategy or zero-memory strategy, players are able to use the proper skill and correct rules when faced with decisions on hitting, standing, double down, or splitting against the dealers known up card. The calculations of the expectations and probabilities under zero-memory strategy are categorized into Tables. Using these Tables, along with various betting techniques such as card counting, random betting, and exponential betting, will increase a players maximum expectation and give them an advantage over the dealer. In order to test these strategies and techniques, a total of 240 trials were conducted while applying the three betting techniques to each trial. A computer game, Hoyle Casino99, was used to carryout the basic hi/lo card counting technique that is applied in my project. The results will include tables from the multiple trials of the various betting techniques vs. 1, 2, 3, or 4 players. The output of statistical data will show an increase in the players win probability using the basic strategy technique and will also show which betting technique is the best for increasing a players total amount of chips won. Introduction : Blackjack, considered to be the most popular table game in casinos, rakes in about 15% of all casino revenue . It is the only casino game where the player can have an edge over the casino. In order to have that edge over the casino, a players rate of profit on his investment should be greater than the casinos. The only actually set house edge over the playe r is if the player and dealer both bust, then the dealer wins. Typically the house edge over a player is dependent on the players decision so it is very difficult to say exactly what the house edge is over the player. With a beginning blackjack player, the house edge against the player could be anywhere from two to three percent. A more advanced player who is usually a player that follows a basic

set of rules of when to hit, stand, double, could possibly lower that edge to about 0.5%.

1.1 The Game of Blackjack

The rules of blackjack are quite simple. The object of blackjack is to beat the dealers cards totaling 21 or less and also having a higher total number of points than the dealer. A player can also win if the dealers cards exceed 21 and the players cards do not. Exceeding a total of 21 is known as busting. The casinos advantage to blackjack is when the players go first in deciding what to do with their cards. If the player busts, they automatically lose even if the dealer busts. The value of each card is straightforward. All cards count their face value in blackjack. For example, a 2 of hearts is worth 2 points, a ten of diamonds is worth 10 points, etc. Face cards are also worth ten points and an ace is counted as either 1 point or eleven points depending on the total value of the hand. It is usually assumed that aces are worth 11 points, but if a players total exceeds 21, it will be counted as 1 point. The total of any hand is the sum of the card values in the hand. For example, if you are dealt 8, 3, 5, and 4, your total is 20. There are essentially two types of hands, hard and soft. A hard hand is defined as one with no aces. For example, 10 and 8 is a hard hand. A soft hand is one with an ace in the hand. For example, Ace, 7 is a soft hand of 18 or soft 18. Prior to the deal of the cards, all players must make a bet by placing chips in their respective betting boxes.

Every player and the dealer will receive two cards. One of the dealer's card (known as the dealer's up card or face card) is dealt up so that players can see

its value. The other dealer's card (known as the dealer's down card or hole card) is unseen. The two player cards can be either dealt face up, face down, or sometimes one up and one down. After player has received two cards from the dealer, the player has the option of hitting, standing, splitting, or doubling down. A hit, means that the player would like the dealer to give you another card to your hand. Standing means you are satisfied with the total of the hand and want to stand with the cards you have. You can only split your cards if you have two like cards (e.g. a pair of 4's or jacks). When you split you must make another bet equal to your original bet by placing your chip next to the original chip bet on the hand. When pair splitting, a player will play each card as a separate hand and can draw as many cards as a player would like to each hand (except split aces-most casinos will only allow one draw card to each ace). For example, if a player were dealt a pair of 8's (16) and split, a player would have two separate hands containing an 8. One would be

required to play out one of the split hands first before the other. Most casinos will also allow players to split all 10 value cards such as a jack and ten or queen and king. If a player chooses to double down, he or she doubles the bet in return for receiving one and only one draw card. In most casinos you cant double down after hitting. Other options such as surrender and insurance are also used in blackjack. However, in this study, we will not be dealing with insurance or the surrender option. Unlike players, the dealer in blackjack has no playing option. Casino rules specify that a dealer must draw when the dealer's hand totals less than 17 and stand when the total is 17 to 21. In some casinos, dealers must stand on soft 17 and in others they must hit (it's better for the player if the rules specify the dealer must stand on soft 17). Multiple deck blackjack or 4 -6 deck

blackjack is most commonly seen in casinos. However, there are such casinos that have one deck blackjack, but in our case we will be dealing with 6-decks. [2] [4] [6] . 1.2 Players Strategy

If the dealer has a six showing and the player has a card value total of 12, do you hit or should you stay, hoping that the dealer busts? Unless you are card counting, this is an example of zero-memory strategy, meaning the only known cards are the dealers up card and the players two up cards. Under the zero-memory strategy of one deck of cards, there are a possible 55 two-card hands a player can receive off the deal. For example, a player may be dealt a (9, 10), (7, 4), (K, 3) etc. Knowing that only 2 cards are dealt to the player and there are 10 different point values for each card (since 10s, Js, Qs, and Ks are all worth 10), then the total amount of two -card hands can be found using combination. In our case, we take ten choose two for the amount of two-card combinations for the 10 different point values of the 52-card deck. We also add, ten choose one for the amount of two -card combinations that have the same point value, such as a (2,2), (10,10), (7,7) etc., where (10,10) is considered to be pairs of face cards also. The equation for this can be shown below:
10C2

10C1

= 45 + 10 = 55 possible two-card hands

The only card that is known of the dealers is the up card for a total of 10 possibilities of values such as 2-9, 10 (10, J, Q, K), and 1 or 11 (A). The players zero-memory strategy then must be defined for 550 possible cases or 55 two-card hand possibilities times the 10 possibilities of the dealers up-card

(55x10 = 550). Under zero-memory, we can produce probabilities of the players mathematical expectation of hitting, standing, doubling down, or splitting. Defining these probabilities from [4]:

Let random variable t0 be the two-card total dealt to the player and let k be the final total of the dealers. Then if the player decides to stay or stand with his two-card total of t0, the players single-play probability of winning Pw, would be defined as the probability that the players two -card total, t0, is less than or equal to 21 and greater than the dealers final total, k, or the probability that the dealers final total cards, k, is greater than 21 and the players two -card total, t0, is less than or equal to 21. The probability of losing is then defined as the probability that the players two-card total, t0, is less than the dealers final total, k, which is less than or equal to 21. The probability of tying, or pushing, is then the probability that the dealers final total, k, is equal to the players two-card total, t0. All of which are shown below: Pw = P(k < t0 21) + (P(k > 21)P(t0 21)) PT = P(t0 = k) PL = P(t0 < k 21) where Pw + PT + PL = 1 Defining a players mathematical expectation E(X): if a random variable X can assume any n values, x1, x2, xn with respective probabilities p1, p2, , pn, then E(X) is expressed as: E(X) = p1 x1 + p2 x2 + + pn xn = pi xi, where i goes from 1 to n,

Using this definition, we can find a players mathematical expectation E(t0) of standing with a their two-card total t0 for a n dollar amount bet for each hand, where n = 1, 2,, d dollar amounts: E(t0) = n(Pw) n(PL) = 2n(Pw) + n(PT) n = 2n(P(t0 > k) + P(k > 21)) + n(P(to = k)) Let random variable t1 be the players total card value of the players after drawing one card or hitting. Then the probability of winning is defined as the probability of the players total card value, t1, less than or equal to 21 and greater than the dealers final total card value, k and the probability that the dealers final total, k, is greater than 21 and the players total card value, t 1, is less than or equal to 21. Also, the players probability of losing is defined as the probability that the players total card value, t 1, is less than the final total of the dealer cards, k, less than or equal to 21 and the probability that the players total card value, t1, is greater than 21. Then the probability of player tying the dealer is the probability that the players total card value, t 1, is equal to the final total of the dealers cards, k, and less than or equal to 21. The players single-play probability of winning Pw, of tying PT, and of losing PL are shown as: Pw = P(k < t0 21) + P(k > 21)P(t1 21) PT = P(t1 = k 21) PL = P(t1 < k 21)+ P(t1 > 21)

Using the definition from above, the players mathematical expectation E(t 1) can then be defined as the probability of a player who draws exactly one card obtaining a total three card value of t1 for n betting amount is: E(t1) = n(Pw) n(PL) = 2n(Pw) + n(PT) n = = 2n(P(k < t0 21))+ 2n(P(k > 21)P(t1 21)) + nP(t1 = k 21) n

Then for every value t0 the player has the option of staying or drawing to increase the total of t1. It is the players advantage to hit if E(t1) > E(t0) and it is the player advantage to stand if E(t1) < E(t0), so taking the difference of the two: E(t1) - E(t0) = 2nP(k < t0 21) 2nP(t0 > k) 2nP(t1 > 21) P(k > 21) + nP(t1 = k 21) nP(t0 = k) Eventually if the player keeps drawing and doesnt decide to stay, E(t i+1) E(ti) < 0, drawing an additional card (t2) will change the new total hand value until the maximum value of ti produces the state E(ti+1) - E(ti) 0 for which the player then stays on his total of ti 21. For example, suppose a player is dealt a 7 of diamonds, 5 of hearts for a total card value of 12. The dealers up card shows a 6 of hearts. If the players bet was n = 1, then the players mathematical expectations of hitting E(t 1) and standing E(t0) are: E(t0=12) = 1Pw 1PL = 2Pw + 1PT 1 = 2P(12 > k) + 2P(k > 21) + 1P(12 = k)

E(t1) = 2Pw + 1PT 1 = 2P(k < t0 21) + 2P(k > 21)P(t1 21) + 1P(t1 = k 21) 1, Knowing the dealers up card, 6, the probability of the players card total of 12 greater than the dealers final total k, P(t 0 > k), is the possibility of the dealers down card being a 5, 4, 3, 2, and A if dealer draws on soft 17. Then the P(k > 21) is the probability of the dealer drawing until they bust and the P(12 = k) is the probability of the dealers down card being a 6 and the probability of the dealer drawing until to = k. Similarly, one can calculate the players mathematical expectation of hitting E(t1). Then taking the difference, E(t1) - E(t0) = -0.0230, E(t1) < E(t0) which means the player should stand in this situation. So if a player is dealt a two-card value of 12, no matter what cards, if the dealers up card is 6, the player has more of an advantage of staying in this situation, thus relying on the dealer drawing until they have a total, k > 21, or busting. Table A shows the players mathematical

expectation of standing, hitting, or doubling down under the zero-memory strategy for players two-card total of 11, 12, and 13, vs. the dealers up -cards of 5 through 9 found in [4]. The full table can be found in the Appendix, Table I. TABLE A: A players expected gain for 4-deck blackjack Players two-card hand 13 12 11 9 -.1597 -.1578 .6401 D -.1547 -.1533 .6814 D -.2997 X -.2203 X .4674 D -.3506 X -.2807 X .3485 D -.4077 X -.3438 X .2268 D Dealers Up-card 5 6 7 8

* Conditioned on No dealer or player blackjacks

* Stand unless: X = Hit/Draw, D = Double-Down

Looking at the table, one can see why we should stay on a 12, 13, with a dealers up-card of a 5 or a 6 because the probability of the dealer having a face card as the down-card for a total of a 15 or a 16, and the dealer hitting a card value of a 7 or greater (busting), is greater than the players probability of hitting and receiving a 10 or a face card and busting.

This zero-memory strategy can be summarized into more simple form known as basic strategy. The basic strategy technique offers the same insight, on whether to hit, stay, double down, or split, as the zero-memory strategy for 4decks. Basic strategy takes in account for the dealers up-cards and the players two-card total as in the zero-memory strategy. It will also maximize a players expectation, bringing them closer to even with the house. Table B shows this basic strategy for multiple decks (4-6 decks) for players two-card total of 10 through 13, vs. dealers up cards of 2 through 7. This table was used for carrying out the various trials and hands in the study. The full version can be found in the Appendix as Table II. Table B: Basic Strategy for Multiple Decks Players two-card hand 13 12 11 10 7 Stand Hit Double Double Stand Hit Double Double Stand Stand Double Double Stand Stand Double Double Stand Stand Double Double Hit Hit Double Double Dealers Up-card 2 3 4 5 6

10

Using the basic strategy or zero-memory strategy, a player will be able to determine the correct way to play his or her hand knowing the dealers up card. Along with various betting techniques such as, card counting, random betting, and exponential betting, we can examine which technique yields the higher win probability for each case vs. the dealer and also the total amount won for the game of Blackjack. [2] [3] [4] [6]

1.3 Background and Motivation

Zero-memory strategy is directly related to probability theory and statistical analysis, which are a part of counting process in combinatorics. Zero memory strategy deals with probabilities and expectations of a player hitting, standing, doubling down, or splitting vs. the dealers known up card. Using the zeromemory technique alone can increase your winning percentage and give you and edge over the casino. Applying the basic strategy to other betting

strategies such as, card counting, random, and exponential betting techniques, will help increase your winnings and will maximize total winning amounts even more. This project will focus on increasing a players expected gain in winnings by using the strategy applied with card counting and various betting techniques. The concept of applying zero-memory strategy or basic strategy to betting techniques has applications to real world situations such as playing blackjack in casinos, Random Variables in probability, and in math/statistic field. 1.4 Known Work in Math Literature

Similar research has been done using the basic strategy applied with a cardcounting betting technique. Millman [5] used a Vax 11/780 computer to

11

determine what advantage a player using zero-memory strategy might obtain over the house. It computed a table, just like in [2], on whether a player should hit, stay, double down, or split knowing the dealers up card and the players two-card total only. Using this basic strategy table and the hi/lo cardcounting betting technique, they were able to determine if the technique increased a players proportion of wins (win probability), the mean total of chips won, and the mean edge over the dealer or house. The simulation was performed under Vegas and Atlantic City blackjack rules with four decks. Data was collected from 600 trials and 400 trials of twenty thousand hands in both Las Vegas and Atlantic City respectively. The results demonstrated that Las Vegas is more desirable from the players point of view than Atlantic City. The win probability turned out to be 87% for Las Vegas and 79% for Atlantic City. The average chip amount won for trials in Las Vegas was 2084 and in Atlantic City, 1108, which is almost double the amount. The mean Player edge was 1.35 and .91 for Las Vegas and Atlantic City respectively. Some of the other zero-memory strategy in Blackjack information was taken from [1] and [4]. Much of the information that for this research has come from [2], [4], and [5]. Since this project deals with probabilities and

expectations, research was done by looking at many optimal strategies and the mathematics behind these probabilities, which were found in [1] and [2].

2 Proposed Method

The zero-memory strategy or basic strategy sets rules for us players about when to hit, stay, double down, or split. Using the zero-memory strategy, a player will be able to determine the correct way to play their hand knowing only the dealers known up card. In order to carry out the trials for card

12

counting, a computer program called Hoyle Casino 99 was used. The Hoyle Casino 99 computer game allows you to play a variety of casino gambling games such as blackjack, poker, slots, keno, craps, and roulette. Players may start a new profile with a starting bankroll of five thousand dollars and can increase their bankroll by playing games and gambling more money. The maximum amount of money you can earn in your bankroll is unlimited. However, if you end up losing the entire $5,000, you may reset your characters profile and start with another five thousand. Blackjack is just one of the many casino games that you can play. The tables range from $5$1,000, $10-$2,000, $25-$3,000, and $100-Unlimited, minimum betmaximum bet respectively. In our case, we will be playing on the $100Unlimited table since our initial and minimum bet is $100 for each betting technique. This game allows me to set up how ever many decks I want, (I our case, we will use 6-decks), how many players there are, and also the different rules applied to the game such as; re-splitting, doubling down after splitting, dealer hitting on soft 17, etc It also has a card -counting feature that keeps a running count of the cards that come up in the hands played. The chip are divided up into amounts $100, $500, $1K, $5K, $10K, etc which allowed me to set the bets accordingly to the running count in multiples of 100. This game is very useful and quick in getting information on the card-counting method and how it is applied with the basic strategy technique.

For the exponential and random betting techniques, the trials and hands were carried out by hand using 6 decks of cards, and recording each hand for each of the 20 trials of the four cases vs. the dealer following the basic strategy table from [2] and [6]. The data that was recorded on the sheets was the card amounts of the player and dealer, whether or not the player hits, stays, splits,

13

or doubles down, and whether or not the player wins or loses the hand. After each case, the various bets were applied to each of the hands and the total number of wins, losses, and the total amount won and lost were recorded on the sheets as well. Overall, there are 20 trials for each case of 1-4 players vs. the dealer, applied to each of the three betting techniques totaling 4,800 recorded hands. All recorded results are displayed in the Appendix. These results will show us which betting technique yields a greater maximum expectation using the basic strategy and how effective the basic strategy technique is in yielding a higher percentage of wins overall. 2.1 Random Betting Technique One of the betting techniques applied to basic strategy or zero-memory strategy in this project is Random Betting, where a betting amount for each hand is randomly generated by a simple random sample. Since all trials consisted of exactly 20 hands, a random sample of 20 numbers, listed one through twenty, are taken and applied to each hand in each trial. In order to get a random sample of 20 numbers, we will use the Simple Random Sample Generator, a statistical applet found online. [7] This applet allowed me to carry out 80 lists of 20 random numbers. For example, one list may be, 17, 1, 9, 3, 16, 8, 4, 5,,13, 20, 14, 12. Taking these numbers and multiplying them by 100, we will get a new list of numbers in multiples of 100, starting with 100 as our smallest possible bet and 2000 being our biggest possible bet. So in our previous list, our first bet on hand 1 would be $1700, then $100 on hand 2, then $900 on hand 3, and so on. 2.2 Exponential Betting Technique

Another technique applied to basic strategy is Exponential Betting, whereby the amount of bet on one hand is doubled of that on the previous hand until

14

the desired amount is attained. For example, at a blackjack table with a minimum bet of $100, our first initial bet would be $100. Then our 2 nd hand would be $200, and doubling it another time to get our 3 rd hand bet of $400, then $800, $1600, $3200, $6400, etc Since all trials consist of twenty hands, on the twentieth hand, according to the definition of exponential betting, you will place a bet of $52,428,800, which is a lot of money! Using this technique over 20 hands can either make a player very rich or will make a player far in debt depending on the hand amount and what it is worth. That is why this study is assuming that the initial bankroll is unlimited and that exponential betting is to be defined as the technique of doubling bets until the player attains a certain amount over the 20 hands. In this study, the desired amount is $50,000 or more. 2.3 Card Counting Technique Using the basic Hi/Lo card counting system, every card is assigned a number value: 2-6 = +1, 7-9 = 0, 10, J, Q, K, A = -1 and for every card that comes up, each value of each card is kept track of in a running count (see [6]). The

betting technique applied to the card counting system is to bet accordingly to your running count. For instance, if a player were at a blackjack table with a minimum bet of $100 and our running count is at a +5, you would bet 5 times the initial betting amount or minimum bet at the table, or $500 dollars for the next hand. If the running count is at a +1 or less, you would bet the minimum bet of $100. Players must keep a running count of the cards that come up during play. For example, if the last round of cards dealt were K, 10, 8, 6, J, 3, 2, A, 5, 5, 7, a players running count would be ( -1) + (-1) + (0) + (+1) + (1) + (+1) + (+1) + (-1) + (+1) + (+1) + (0) = +1 and so our next bet for the next hand would be $100.

15

Results and Analysis of Table C Over a period of 2 months, four thousand eight hundred blackjack hands were investigated in which the player employs our basic strategy technique. Data was collected for samples consisting of 80 trials for each case of 1, 2, 3, and 4 players vs. dealer. Each sample was applied to the three betting techniques for a total of 240 trials, each trial consisting of 20 hands. All cases for number of players vs. dealer were investigated for each of the betting techniques that were applied. Let W be the number of wins and L be the number of losses. Then the probability that a players final bankroll exceeds his initial bankroll after a trial, denoted WP, will be called the players win probability. Likewise, we call the players loss probability, denoted LP, just 1 - WP. Table C gives a summary of the sample data of the players number of wins, losses, the win probability, and loss probability for each betting technique, basic strategy in general, and the overall total for all 4,800 hands. The Basic and Overall rows in Table C define wins and losses as whether or not the player wins or losses the hand vs. the dealer. Therefore a win, in this case, does not depend on the final amount after each trial but depends on the outcome of after each hand. For each of the betting techniques, the number of wins and losses are defined as whether or not the player came out ahead after 20 hands. The results of Table C are shown below: TABLE C: W=Wins L=Losses 2 4 1 7 3 4 3 5 4 WP 2 4 1 15 .6 5 6 8 .8 5 .6 0 .8 5 .8 0 .2 5 3 .7 5 .8 0 .7 0 LP 2 4 1 .2 5 .7 0 .6 0 .3 5 .1 5 .4 0 .1 5 .2 0 .7 5 3 .2 5 .2 0 .3 0 2 .7 5 .3 0 .4 0

(# of 4 Players) 1 Expone ntial Rando m Hi/Lo Basic Overall

13 17 15 5

17 16 16 14 3 12 5 14 12 8

15 6

66 69 69 66 53 50 50 53 .5 .5 .5 .5 .4 .4 .4 .4 2 6 8 8 8 4 2 2 52 80 81 57 48 20 19 43 2724 2076 .5675 .4325

16

W: the number of wins by 1 player vs. the WP: the probability of 1 person dealer winning vs. the dealer L: the number of losses by 1 player vs. the LP: the probability of 1 person losing dealer vs. the dealer Each column is divided into four sections for each of the four cases of 1, 2, 3, 4 players vs. the dealer. The first column shows the total number of wins over each trial, the second column shows the total number of losses over each trial, the third column shows the players win probability, and the fourt h column shows the loss probability. It clearly shows that there is a higher percentage of wins overall while applying the basic strategy technique. This may mean that by using the basic strategy technique, a player has the advantage over the casino. Knowing this, a player can use this technique to their advantage to increase their winning percentage, which can help them to come up ahead in their overall winning amount as seen in [4] and in [5]. In [4], they were able to use the basic strategy technique or zero-memory technique along with the hi-lo system to find out that it was sufficient in achieving a positive expected gain in the casinos that were tried. And Millman [5], shows that by using this basic strategy technique, they were able to yield a positive mean winning amount in both Las Vegas and in Atlantic City. The proportions of wins were significantly higher in both places as well. The number of players at the table does not affect a players chances of winning a certain hand under the random betting and exponential betting technique. The only effect it has on these two betting strategies is the overall amount won in the end. The more players that are at the table means that there are more cards being dealt out of the deck and distributed for each hand vs. the dealer. However, in card counting, the number of players at the table has a different effect on the outcome of your wins. In card counting, the running count may vary dramatically accordingly to the cards that are dealt out of the deck for each hand. For example, there may be a string low cards dealt out in one hand vs. the dealer, making the running count for the next hand significantly positive, causing the player to bet a large amount on the next hand. With this in mind, we can carefully examine the results of Table C. There does seem to be somewhat of a relationship between the amounts of wins at the table with more players than fewer players under the random betting technique. Looking at column 3, in the case where there are four players vs. dealer, 85% of the time the player will end up with an amount

17

greater than the initial amount after 20 hands, i.e. player will have a positive expected gain. In the cases for 3, 2, and 1 player vs. the dealer, the percentage of the amount of wins is 80%, 80%, and 75% respectively. However, it isnt obvious of a relationship for the exponential and card-counting betting technique because the results for the wins and losses vary between the numbers of players at the table and are not as consistent as for the Random betting technique. Of course many more trials and hands with more than four players should be carried out in order to safely conclude there is a relationship, but from the results, a player can use the random betting technique to their advantage and sit at a table with more players around it to walk out of the casino ahead. 3.1 Results and Analysis of Table D Next, let us also define the players edge in 1600 trials to be the net number of wins over the net number of losses, denoted e. Table D reports the players edge over each case. TABLE D: Cases Edge (e) 1 player 1.230 2 players 1.381 3 players 1.390 4 players 1.256 Overall 1.312

Edge (e) = the number of times a player wins / the number of times a player loses Table D shows that there is an overall positive players edge, meaning the total amount won over the total amount loss is greater than 1. The total average players edge over 4,800 hands is 1.312, which is also greater than 1. This means that there are a higher number of wins vs. losses; meaning higher percentage of wins overall using this basic strategy technique. Millman [5] also found the mean player edge for both Las Vegas and Atlantic city to be greater than one. The mean player edge in Las Vegas was 1.35 and the overall mean edge was 1.13, which is also greater than one, meaning there is a greater amount of wins than losses while using the basic strategy technique. Of course many more trials, other than 20, and hands other than 20, with more than four players should be carried out in order to safely conclude there is an evident relationship.

18

3.2 Results and Analysis of Table E Next, let us define the net amount won, denoted WT, as the total amount won minus the total amount lost. The average amount won, denoted , is defined as the total amount won, WT, divided by the total amount trials t . Table E gives a summary of the sample data for both WT and . TABLE E:
Betting Techniq ue (Players ) WT (Total Amount Won minus Total Amount (Total Amount Won divided by the Lost) total amount of Trials) 4 1 734,812, 800 85,650 -18,100 828,274, 400 76,050 -5,150 3 2 4 1 487,581, 800 52,650 9,200 22,795, 878 4,368 905 36,740, 640 4,282.5 -905 3 41,413, 720 3,802.5 -257.50 2 24,379, 090 2,632.5 460

Exponen 455,917, tial 560 Random Hi/Lo 87,360 18,100

The first and second columns report the total amount won and average amount won applied with the three betting techniques. Again, each column is divided into four separate cells for each case of 1, 2, 3, 4 players vs. the dealer. In column 1, there is a distinct relationship between the total amount won and the number of players sitting at the table under the Random Betting technique. The total amount won by one player, two players, three players, and four players vs. dealer are $52,650, $76,050, $85,650, $87,360 respectively. There is a general positive increase in the total amount won in the number of players at the table increases. This does not mean that the number of players at the table effect the number of wins or losses on each hand. However, this may show a relationship in the total amount won or lost. The same trend can be seen in column 2 with the average total amount won over each trial as well. Again, there is a positive increase in the average total amount won as number of players at the table increases. However, there is no such trend in exponential and card-counting techniques as in the random betting technique.

19

3.3 Results and Analysis of Table F The Overall total amount won and average amount won for each of the three betting techniques can be found in Table F where both WT and are defined over 4,800 hands. TABLE F: Overall Totals WT Exponential $1,531,422,960 $19,142,787 Random $317,010 $3,962.50 Hi/Lo $4,050 $50.63

The overall total amount won for exponential betting is $1,531,422,960, for random betting, $317,010, and for the card-counting technique, $4,050 found. Both amounts are significantly positive and can potentially show they are effective using the zero-memory strategy, but many more hands and trials need to be carried out in order to safely say they are. 3.4 Results and Analysis of Table G Finally, for t = 1, 2, 3, , 20, each of the t trials for exponential betting, let h(t) denoted the number of hands it takes for a person ultimate winning to exceed $50,000. Let B(t) be the initial bankroll needed to achieve h(t) and let M(t) be the exact winning amount after t trials. Table G gives a summary of the sample data for the exponential betting technique. Column 1 shows the average amount of hands it takes to get to the amount desired. Column 2 reports the average amount of greater than or equal to $50,000 and column 3 reports the average bankroll needed in order to get to the desired amount.

20

TABLE G: Cases 4 Players 3 Players 2 Players 1 Player Overall h(t) 12 11 11 12 11 M(t) $377,079 $97,760 $229,085 $208,565 $228,112.25 B(t) $1,077,775 $292,470 $607,760 $550,780 $632,196.25

Column 1 shows that there is a steady trend in the amount of hands it takes to get to the amount greater than $50,000. The average number of hands it takes to get to the desired amount is roughly 11 hands. Most of the cases fall near or on that average. However, looking at columns 2 and 3, there is a different pattern in the amount of bankroll needed to get to the amount desired. For the case four players vs. dealer, there is a general bigger average amount needed and average amount > $50,000 than the cases for 3, 2, and 1 players. In general, there isnt much of a relationship between the average bankroll needed and average amount desired > $50,000. Overall, Table G didnt show much of a relationship between the h(t), M(t) and B(t). Using the exponential betting technique, a players final bankroll will depend on the amount of hands it takes to get to amount greater than $50K. For example, if it takes one player 17 hands to get to the desired amount and another player 10 hands, the amount that is bet on the 17th hand is $6,553,600 which is much more greater than the amount bet on the 10th hand of $51,200. In all betting techniques that were applied, many more trials and hands need to be conducted in order to prove that any of the relationships are evident

21

UML DIAGRAMS FOR THE GAME: 1.USECASEDIAGRAM:

22

2.CLASSSDIAGRAM:

V 3. SEQUENCE DIAGRAM:

23

SCREEN SHOTS:

24

Conclusion The game of blackjack is one of few casino games where the players advantage over the house solely depends upon the decisions made by the player for each hand. Basic strategy and zero-memory strategy, defined in section 1.2, are techniques that can be used to aide in a players decision. Knowing only the dealers up card and the players two -card total a player must decide whether to hit, stand, split or double down. In this study, it was found that there is a higher percentage of wins and lower percentage of losses when using the basic strategy or zero-memory strategy compared to no strategy at all. Applying this basic strategy to random, exponential, and cardcounting betting techniques, defined in section 2, the random betting technique produced a higher percentage of number of wins than the exponential betting and card-counting technique. From the results and analysis, there is a relationship between the number of players at the table playing and the total amount won a player has using the random betting technique. The exponential betting technique and card-counting technique that were implemented did not relate to the number of players at the table and the total amount won. However, the techniques did yield a positive total amount won that may provide evidence that these techniques are also effective. Many more trials and hands, in addition to the ones carried out in this study, are needed to effectively show that these betting techniques will

25

yield a positive final bankroll and give the player that edge, over the casino. Using the basic strategy technique applied with the betting strategies may yield a positive total amount overall, and may give the player the advantage over the casino, in order to beat it at its own game.

Future Research Work Future work in this area could include changes in the amounts of players at the table. In this case, more players such as 5, 6, even 7 players vs. dealer to see if there is a positive trend in the total amount of money won and the amount a players at the table. Another change could include many more trials and hands. Only 4,800 hands were carried out in this experiment, but if there was 20,000 hands or even 100,000 hands conducted, our analysis of the results will be much more accurate. Also, if the number of hands for each trial was bigger, we can take a look at the results over longer periods of time. Other possible research areas related to this include making the results practical by going to a casino and using the techniques applied in this research, but until I win the lottery, I wont be doing this anytime soon.

Acknowledgments I would like to thank Prof. Peh Ng, my senior seminar advisor for all of her knowledge, suggestions, and encouragement throughout this project and for making this project possible. I would also like to thank Prof. David Roberts for being my second reader and offering great suggestions in improving my paper. Finally, I would like to thank my family and friends for all their support throughout the process.

26

References [1] Baldwin, R., Cantey, W., Maisel, H., and McDermott, J. (1956). The Optimum Strategy in Blackjack. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 51 (275), 429-439.

[2]

Brisman, A. (1999). Mensa Guide to Casino Gambling: Winning Ways. New York: Sterling Publishing Co.

[3]

Epstein, R. (1977). The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic. New York: Academic Press.

[4]

Goodnight, J., and Manson, A. (1975).

Optimum Zero-Memory The

Strategy and Exact Probabilities for a 4-Deck Blackjack. American Statistician, 29 (2), 84-88.

[5]

Millman, M. (1983). A Statistical Analysis of Casino Blackjack. The American Mathematical Monthly, 90 (7), 431-436.

[6]

Orkin, M. (1991). Can you Win: The Real Odds for Casino gambling, Sports Betting, and Lotteries. Company. New York: W. H. Freedman and

[7]

Introduction to the Practice of Statistics. (2006). Statistical Applet. Simple Random Sample. Retrieved November 28, 2006 from World Wide Web: http://bcs.whfreeman.com/ips5e/default.asp

27