Cycles Research Institute

October 2005

The 154 day Solar cycle and related cycles

8y Ray To es
Solar variations of 154 days and related periods
The Sun has been found to have a 154 day cycle in ga a! ray flares" proton flares" solar #ind" interplanetary agnetic field" sunspot areas and neutrino output$ %irst reported in ga a ray flares in 1&'4 by Rieger et al" the cycle varies bet#een 140 and 1(0 days and is ost often reported as 154 or 155 days$ The cycle is often associated #ith other cycles of periods near 2'" 51" (' and 10) days all of #hich are ultiples of the solar rotation rate of 2* days +or 2' days as seen fro the earth,$ -onger cycles of 1$2' and 2$14 years are also entioned as associated" being ) and 5 ti es the length of the 154 day cycle$

carried out a search for periodicities in the Solar %lu1 at 12( 0.9$ They found the 11 year cycle but not the 154 day cycle$ .o#ever other sub!har onics of 25$' days #ere found" including strong spectral pea6s for 51$( days is found 1&5'!1&'5" 10)$) days is present in cycles 20 and 21 especially 1&*&!1&(* and '0$* days up to 1&'&" especially <ust after " a1i a$ =eriods of (' and '4 days #ere observed in radio flu1 at 10 c " in sunspot areas and in flare activity by 8ai and Sturroc6$

Solar neutrino flu1 cycles

Solar neutrinos do not co e in a steady flu1 and so continue to surprise researchers$ 8ecause neutrinos can travel al ost uni peded fro the Solar core #here they are produced" to the 3arth #here #e detect the " any variation in the flu1 of neutrinos ust ean a variation in their rate of production$ This suggests that the Sun has episodic bursts of activity in its core #hich is not so ething that #as e1pected$ Several novel ideas have been suggested to e1plain this fact$ 8ecause light and heat fro the Sun co e to us fro the Solar surface" they result fro nuclear reactions that happened any thousands of years earlier$ In that ti e" any short ter fluctuations in the reaction rate #ould be s oothed out$ Only the neutrino flu1 tells us #hat is actually happening in the Solar core right no#$ The ost noticeable variation in the flu1 is a 2' day period #hich atches the Solar rotation period as seen fro the 3arth$ The actual rotation period of the Sun is 2* days" but because #e are oving around the Sun" it ta6es an e1tra 2 days to catch up #ith the 3arth>s otion each rotation$ Confir ation that the period is truly originating in the Sun is given by the presence of side bands$ These side bands #hich result fro the 3arth passing north and south of the Solar e?uator once per year are found at 10$''" 11$''" 1)$'' and 14$'' cycles per year in addition to the ain pea6 at 12$'' cycles per year of the 2'$4 day cycle$ Related cycles of 15( days and ('0 days +2$14 years or ?uasi!biennial variation, #ere also found to be present #ea6ly in the neutrino flu1" but no 11 year cycle #as found by the Stanford researchers reporting these results$ The period of ('0 days is five ti es 15* days" and has therefore been suggested as being har onically related$

.igh energy Solar flares

/sing daily data fro the Solar 0a1i u 0ission +S00, and the 2eosynchronous Operational 3nviron ental Satellites +2O3S," a 15545!) day cycle #as found near the a1i u of solar cycle 21$ The period is often reported at solar a1i u and tends to disappear at solar ini u $ This ay be due to using highly s6e#ed data" and the author suggests reanalysis #ith log data being used instead$ 7$ -$ 8allester" R$ Oliver and 0$ Carbonell report that this period coincides in ti e #ith periodic e ergence of agnetic flu1 in the for of strong agnetic fields" suggesting a causal relationship$ Their figure is sho#n belo#$

Solar cycle 2)$ From top to bottom@ )1 day bo1car average of the daily nu ber of A and 0 solar flaresB daily nu ber of sunspot groupsB daily sunspot areaB daily 0CSI$

Solar flu1 at 12( 0.9

The ean flu1 density of the Sun has being onitored at Toru: since 1&5' and 2$ 2a#ro:s6a and ;$0$ 8or6o#s6i

In DCos ic Rhyth sE +in Russian, F S Festerov sho#s the above spectru of fluctuations in )$(5 2.9 solar radio e issions$ The triplet centred on 154 days ay be interpreted as a 154 day cycle a plitude odulated by periods of G4$( and G&$4 years$ Fote also another triplet near 15452 or (( days #hich has odulations of )$1" G4$' and G&$2 years$ These odulation periods are inaccurate due to the data being only for t#o solar cycles$

Cycles Research Institute

0odulations of cycles
F S Festerov has reported the spectru of Solar radio e issions at )$(5 2.9$ Hs #ell as sho#ing co on periods of 154 and (( days" there is co ple1 spectral structure around each of these periods suggesting odulation by longer cycles$ 2enerally reports indicate that the cycles are stronger near solar a1i u " so these odulations ay be due to the ain 11 year solar cycle$ The analysis is based on <ust 2 solar cycles" so the odulation periods #ill not be very accurate$

October 2005

References
Rieger" 3" 2 . Share" I 7 %orrest" 2 ;anbach" C Reppin" and 3 -$Chupp" Fature" )12" *2)" 1&'4$ DH 154!day periodicity in the occurrence of hard solar flaresE$ 8ogart" R S" and 8ai" T 1&'5" Hp$ 7$ +-etters," 2&&" -51$ JConfir ation of a 152!day =eriodicity in the Occurrence of Solar %lares Inferred fro 0icro#ave Iata>> 8ai" T" and Sturroc6" = H 1&'(" Fature" )2(" *01$ JOn the 152!day =eriodicity of the Solar %lare Occurrence RateJ 8ai" T" and Cliver" 3 C 1&&0" Hp$ 7$" )*)" 2&&$ JH 154!Iay =eriodicity in the Occurrence Rate of =roton %laresJ -ean" 7 -" Hstrophys$ 7$" )*)" (1'" 1&&0$ D3volution of the 155 day periodicity in the sunspot areas during solar cycles 12 to 22E$ 8ai" T" and Sturroc6" = H 1&&1" Fature )50" 141$ JThe 154!day and Related =eriodicities as Subhar onics of a %unda ental =eriodJ Sturroc6" = H" and 8ai" T 1&&2" Hp$ 7$ )&(" ))($ JSearch for 3vidence of a Cloc6 Related to the Solar 154 Iay Co ple1 of =eriodicitiesJ 8ai" T 1&&2" Hp$ 7$ -etters )''" -*&$ JThe ((!day =eriodicity in the %lare Occurrence Rate of Cycle 22J 8ai" T" and Sturroc6" = H 1&&)" Hp$ 7$ 40&" 4(*$ J3vidence for the %unda ental =eriod of the Sun@ Its Relation to the 154!day Co ple1 of =eriodicitiesJ Cane" . K" I 2 Robinson" and T T von Rosenvinge" 2eophys$ Res$ -ett$" 25" 44)(!4440" 1&&' DInterplanetary agnetic field periodicity of G 15) daysE
http@55ne#s!service$stanford$edu5ne#s51&&'5<anuary2'5neutrinos$ht l

.ar onic Relationships in Solar cycles

F$ H$ ;rivova and S$ ;$ Solan6i note that the po#er of a 1$2' year sunspot cycle period varies strongly over ti e but does vary appro1i ately in phase #ith the 15* day Rieger period of Solar flares$ This result based on #avelet analysis suggests that these t#o cycles are har onics because 1$2' years is ) ti es 15* days$ They find that this period of 15* days continues into ore recent cycles in contrast to earlier results$ They also report significant po#er at all ultiples of 1$) years +reported as 1$2' years above, up to 10$4 years$ They note also that the 15* day period is found in sunspot nu bers and that the 1$) year period is found in variations of geo agnetic activity and interplanetary agnetic field$ 0any researchers have noted the har onic relationships in the solar periods$ 8ai and Sturroc6 co ent that the 154 day and related periodicities are sub!har onics of a funda ental period$ Chen all the reports are co bined it is even clearer that all the reported periods are har onically related to each other$ The solar cycle periods are observed in geophysical cycles on 3arth and also har onically related to other co only observed cycles on earth fro other disciplines$ The follo#ing table has been produced #ith e1act ratios of 2 and ) to best fit all the 6no#n cycles periods$ It is clear that this produces another #hole set of related cycles li6e Ie#ey>s table of co on cycles in the range of years$ %urther ore" these cycle periods are related by being a factor of ( s aller than Ie#ey>s table$

T#enty!eight day cycle found in ghostly solar neutrinos" tea Iavid % Salisbury http@55ourstar$bao$ac$cn5pdf5s#bLasrL2005$pdf Cavelet Hnalysis of =hotospheric 0agnetic %lu1 C 8 Song" 7 A Cang

says

http@55#ave$asu$cas$c95sp 105abstracts5section55abstractsLdbsL)1($pdf

The near 1*0!day periodicity in the photospheric 0 Carbonell" R Oliver" 7 - 8allester

agnetic flu1

http@55###$astro$uni$torun$pl5G6b5=apers5proc58arcelona$ht =roc$ Conf$ held /niv$ 8arcelona" )M( 7uly 1&&5" H Search for =eriodicities in the Solar %lu1 at 12( 0.9 2 2a#ro:s6a and ; 0 8or6o#s6i

Harmonic relationships in solar cycle periods +all figures in days, 12)' *1& )0&$5 103.2 464.2 154.7 51.6 77.4 25.8

The periods are sho#n #ith e1act har onic ratios of 2 hori9ontally and ) vertically in the sa e #ay that Ie#ey sho#ed these relationships e1ist in any longer period co on cycles$ The si1 bold figures are representative of the reported solar flare cycles" e1cept that" because of the 3arth>s otion around the Sun" 2' days is reported rather than 2* days$ The 12)' day cycle accurately atches 3d#ard R$ Ie#ey>s deter ination of 40$*' onths for the stoc6 ar6et cycle" #hile the *1& day cycle atches the author>s deter ination of a 1$*&5 year cycle in #heat prices$ This har onic atching of see ingly unrelated cycles is a feature co only reported by 3d#ard R Ie#ey$