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Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries

(SfP Project Number 984374)

PROGRESS REPORT Apr Sep 2013


Submitted to the Science for Peace and Security Programme Public Diplomacy Division NATO Zeynep Gulerce, Ankara, Turkey, NPD Radmila Salic, Skopje, FYR Macedonia, PPD

PROJECT CO-DIRECTORS : Neki Kuka, Tirana, Albania Snjezana Markusic, Zagreb, Croatia Jadranka Mihaljevic, Podgorica, Montenegro Vladan Kovacevic, Belgrade, Serbia

September 2013

Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries SfP-984374

TABLE OF CONTENTS
PAGE List of Abbreviations used in the Project Plan........ 03 1. Project Co-Directors............................................................. 04 2. Technical Progress............................................................... 05 2.1. Progress on Working Packages.... 05 2.1.1. WP 1: Improvement and Harmonization of the BSHAP Earthquake Catalogue.............. 06 2.1.1.1. Major Accomplishments......... 06 2.1.1.2. Milestones for next six months... 10 2.1.2. WP 2: Strong Ground Motion Data Base and Ground Motion Prediction Models. 12 2.1.2.1. Major Accomplishments......... 12 2.1.2.2. Milestones for next six months... 16 2.1.3. WP 3: Seismic Source Characterization and GIS Implementation... 17 2.1.3.1. Major Accomplishments......... 17 2.1.3.2. Milestones for next six months... 19 2.1.4. WP 4: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard assessment of the Region.. 20 2.1.4.1. Major Accomplishments......... 20 2.1.4.2. Milestones for next six months... 20 2.1.5. WP 5: Establishing Active Scientific Collaboration and Exchange of Information... 21 2.1.5.1. Major Accomplishments......... 21 2.1.5.2. Milestones for next six months... 21 2.1.6. WP 6: Project Coordination Activities and Training Exchange of Information... 21 2.1.6.1. Major Accomplishments......... 21 2.1.6.2. Milestones for next six months... 21 2.2. Actions to insure implementation of results.. 22 2.3. Involvement of young scientists... 23 2.4. Major travels.... 24 2.5. Visibility of the project...... 25 2.6. Technical and Administrative Difficulties.. 26 2.7. Changes in the personnel.. 27 2.8. Changes in project plan.... 28 3. Financial Status................................................................. 29 3.1 3.2 SfP NATO Budget Tables.... 29 SfP NATO Summary Budget Table.... 35

4. Equipment Inventory Records....36

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5. Criteria for Success Table.. 37 6. Outline of the SfP Summary Report..... 38

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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS USED IN THE PROJECT REPORT


ARSO BB COST DGA DTM DEMA DPPI DSHA OHAZ EMSC EC GIS GMP GPS IGEWE IPR ISC IZIIS METU MSO MSC MSK PEER PGA PSHA RP UNDP Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Broad Band (usually - frequency response domain of a seismic instrument) European Cooperation in Science and Technology Design Ground Acceleration Digital Terrain Model Danish Emergency Management Association Disaster Preparedness and Prevention initiative of the EU Stability Pact Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis Computer Program for Seismic Hazard evaluation based on PSHA methodology and Spatially Smoothed Seismicity Approach Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Centre, France European Commission Geographical Information System Ground Motion Prediction Global Positioning System Institute of Geosciences, Energy, Water and Environment Intellectual Property Right International Seismological Center, Newberry Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology at the University "Ss. Cyril and Methodius", Skopje, FYR Macedonia Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey Montenegro Seismological Observatory Mercalli-Cancani-Sieberg earthquake intensity scale Scale of Seismic Intensity (Medvedev-Sponhouer-Karnik) Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center Peak Ground Acceleration Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Return period of a seismic event, expressed in years United Nations Development Programme

BSHAP NATO SfP No 983054 Project acronym

ML, Mw, MS, mb, Md, Mlh, Mm - different types of magnitude definition

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1. PROJECT CO-DIRECTORS

Asst. Prof. Dr. Zeynep Gulerce, PhD in Civil Engineering, NPD Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey Tel: +(90) 3122107481 E-mail: zyilmaz@metu.edu.tr Asst. Prof. Radmila Salic, PhD Candidate, MS in Earthquake Engineering, PPD Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology, Skopje, Republic of Macedonia Tel: +(389) 71311890 E-mail: r_salic@pluto.iziis.ukim.edu.mk; radmila.salic@gmail.com Prof. Dr. Neki Kuka, PhD, Project Co-Director Institute of Geosciences, Energy, Water and Environment Polytechnic University of Tirana, Rruga "Don Bosco", No. 60, Tirana, Albania Tel : +(355) 42259540 E-mail: kuka@geo.edu.al Asst. Prof. Dr. Snjezana Markusic, PhD in Geophysics, Project Co-Director University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia Tel: +(385)14605900 E-mail: markusic@irb.hr Jadranka Mihaljevic, MS in Earthquake Engineering, Project Co-Director Institute of Hydrometeorology and Seismology, Podgorica, Montenegro Tel: +(382) 20648980 E-mail: mihaljevic@seismo.co.me Vladan Kovacevic, Project Co-Director Seismological Survey of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia Tel: +(381) 113034 227 E-mail: vladan.kovacevic@seismo.gov.rs

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2. TECHNICAL PROGRESS 2.1. Progress on working packages This chapter sumarises progress sistemised by working packages: WP 1: Improvement and Harmonization of the BSHAP Earthquake Catalogue WP 2: Strong Ground Motion Database and Ground Motion Prediction Models WP 3: Seismic Source Characterization and GIS Implementation WP 4: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Region WP 5: Establishing Active Scientific Collaboration and Exchange of Information WP 6: Project Coordination Activities and Training

Figure 1: General flow chart of the Project realization

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2.1.1. WP 1: Improvement and Harmonization of the BSHAP Earthquake Catalogue 2.1.1.1 Major Accomplishments Two main accomplishments on the tasks related to tWP1 were achieved during the reporting period: Improvement and harmonization of BSHAP earthquake catalogue Updating the catalogue with 3.0 < M < 3.5 earthquakes from 1970 to today and with earthquakes occurred between 2010 and 2012. A. Compilation of data BSHAP-1 catalogue was compiled from national catalogues (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Montenegro, Macedonia, Romania, Serbia and Slovenia), regional and global catalogues (Karnik 1996; Shebalin & Leydecker; ISC; NEIC; CMT Harvard Catalog; RCMT, INGV, Roma; RCMT, ETHZ, Zurich and EMMA database, Version 2) containing data for 13342 earthquakes with magnitudes M 3.5. According to the agreement from the second workshop in Belgrade, the main WP-1 task was to update BSHAP-1 catalogue with 3.0 < M < 3.5 earthquakes from 1970 to today and M 3.0 earthquakes occurred between 2010 and 2012 using 15 km buffer zones around national borders. National catalogues from Albania with events until 2011 and catalogues from Montenegro, Serbia and Croatia until 2012, with magnitudes M 3.0 were submitted to the task leaders during the reporting period. As it was not possible to obtain Macedonian official catalogue for earthquakes from Macedonian referent institution (Macedonian Seismological Survey) the events for the period 2006-2013 (M 3.0) are taken from the official Greek Catalogue (Ref: Aristotle University of Thessaloniki. (http://geophysics.geo.auth.gr/ss/station_index_en.html). Due to missing Bosnia and Herzegovina catalogue for 3.0 < M < 3.5 earthquakes after 1970, and M 3.0 earthquakes after 2010 all available data from Croatian, Montenegrin and Serbian catalogues for BSHAP-2 earthquakes were compiled and the catalogue on the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina was updated. After merging the national catalogues (Figure 1a), events with magnitude M < 2.4 and M 4.0 (1970 2012) were removed to minimize the possibility of creating duplicate events with data already in BSHAP-1. Duplicate events within 15 km buffer zones around the national borders were determined and compared with BSHAP-1 catalogue. We assigned corresponding country to the event with the use of MapInfo program and the geographical coordinates in its Europe. Tab file. Subject to the agreement that the sovereignty of states, in a manner that are internationally recognized, refers to the contents of catalogues and cannot be subject to overruling, we found 16 earthquakes between Albania and Montenegro to be checked, one earthquake between Serbia and Montenegro, and two duplicate events from Serbia and Montenegro for earthquakes in Macedonia. In the next step we compared merged national catalogues with BSHAP-1 catalogue to remove duplicate data previously resolved in BSHAP-1 catalogue. Final version of BSHAP-2 catalogue contains 19539 earthquakes with magnitudes M 3.5 in the period 510BC-1969 and M 3.0 in the period 1970-2012 (Figure 1b).

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a)

b)

38.0 47.5 N 12.5 24.5 E

Figure 1 - a) Final selection from the national catalogues submitted for BSHAP-1 update; b) BSHAP-2 catalogue (earthquakes M 3.5 in the period 510BC 1969, and earthquakes M 3.0 in the period 1970 - 2012)

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Some basic statistical analyses of BSHAP-2 catalogue were made, completeness estimation, distribution of maximum magnitude by year and magnitude timeline and magnitude frequency distribution are presented in Figure 2 and Figure 3. a)

b)

Mmax

Figure 2 a) Time distribution of seismic events in BSHAP-2 catalogue (mainshocks) by year (19702012), ML 3.0; b) maximum magnitude distribution by year

The magnitude time distribution and the cumulative annual number of earthquakes (Figure 3, left side of the graph) show the significant increase of events with magnitude M 3.0 starting from 1975.
1.12)M 4.0 (bML =
C

Num ber of eq per year

Year

Figure 3 - BSHAP-2 magnitude timeline (all events) and magnitude frequency distribution of earthquakes (mainshocks)
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As it can be seen on the cumulative magnitude frequency distribution of mainshock events the BSHAP-2 catalogue may be considered complete for earthquakes with magnitudes M 4.0. The gap in magnitude distribution at approx. 3.5 < M < 4.0 can be seen in the noncumulative magnitude frequency distribution of earthquakes due to irregular spatial distribution of earthquakes with magnitude M < 4.0. B. Comparison with ISC-GEM and SHARE-GEM catalogues Comparison with ISC-GEM catalogue

We compared BSHAP-2 catalogue to the ISC-GEM catalogue for large events for any discrepancies. ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900-2009) contains data with magnitudes M 5.5. All events from ISC-GEM catalogue were identified in BSHAP-2 catalogue (Figure 4 presents all data from ISC-GEM catalogue on the BSHAP project region compared to BSHAP-2 catalogue (map) with corresponding magnitude regression and basic statistics).
Green dots: ISC-GEM Red dots: BSHAP-2

Figure 4 - BSHAP-2 catalogue compared to the ISC-GEM catalogue for large events for any discrepancies

Maximum time difference between same earthquakes from both catalogues was 25 s, and maximum distance difference up to 35 km, with the exception of few earthquakes from south Italy and Greece. Magnitude correspondence is about 1 to1. Comparison with SHARE-GEM catalogue

BSHAP-2 catalogue was compared to SHARE European Earthquake Catalogue (SHEECver. 3.3). SHEEC catalogue contains 6609 earthquakes with magnitudes M 3.0 (373BC-2006) in the BSHAP project region. In the same region and in the same time period BSHAP-2 catalogue contains 17614 earthquakes (M 3.0) (Figure 5).

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38.0 47.5 N 12.5 24.5 E 373BC-2006

Time difference

Distance difference

Yellow dots: SHARE-GEM Red dots: BSHAP-2

-0.5M0.5 ~ 87%

Mwu (BSHAPE)/Mw (SHARE) magnitude regression

Magnitude-difference distribution, (Mwu-Mw)/Mwu (BSHAP)

Figure 5 - BSHAP-2 catalogue compared to SHEECver3.3 catalogue: map with epicenters, time difference and distance difference between same events from both catalogues, magnitude distribution and magnitude regression between Mw (or Ml) from both catalogues

We determined 4052 events from both catalogues to be the same (criteria: T 60 s and D 50 km). Time difference and distance difference distribution can be seen on Figure 5. About 95% of earthquakes determined same had time difference between -0.6 and 0.6 seconds, and distance difference up to 20 km. The correspondence between the magnitudes is close to 1 to 1 relationship, with magnitude regression showing that BSHAP-2 moment magnitudes are slightly underestimated compared to SHEEC magnitudes for same events (87% of same earthquakes from BSHAP-2 and SHEEC catalogue have magnitude difference -0.5M0.5). 2.1.1.2 Milestones for the next six months In the next six months of the project following tasks shall be completed for WP1:

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Step# 1

Task definition Neighbors should check the buffer zones and send updates to Croatia. Magnitude conversion equation (for M>4) needs to be revisited therefore the magnitude couples should be checked. Full catalog will be distributed among the participants. After the catalogue is finalized, declustering and completeness check should be performed. Two documents will be prepared: 1) Manuscript to be submitted to BEEE or SRL, 2) A guidance document for future entries in the BSHAP catalog

By All

Due date 1 December, 2013

Albania

1 December, 2013

3 4

Croatia Serbia

1 January, 2014 1 February, 2014

All

Start after the 4th workshop

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2.1.2. WP 2: Strong Ground Motion Database and Ground Motion Prediction Models 2.1.2.1 Major Accomplishments The principal activities related to WP-2: Strong Ground Motion Database and Ground Motion Prediction Models can be sistemized as folows: (1) Refinment in the inventorisation of BSHAP-2 countries strong motion seismic networks; (2) Assembling of BSHAP-2 strong ground motion data set through creation of metadata integrated file; (3) Preparatory activities for (digitising) and data processing; and, (4) Preparatory activities for BSHAP-2 strong motion web data base design. A. Refinement in the inventorisation of strong motion seismic networks Complete inventorisation of the BSHAP-2 countries seismic monitoring networks was finalised and refined as well as accordingly systemized in GIS domain. In total 258 strong motion stations were catalogised according the recomendations given in the updated NERIES report on Define and maintain accelerometric station metadata. Every station in data base is defined by: country code; country name; network type; IR network code; FDSN network code; other network code; network operator or responsible organization; operator abbreviation; type of organization managing the network; mission of the station; station code; station name; channel code; latitude; longitude; altitude; opening date; closing date; in operation; instrument type; number of bits; amplitude maximum; timing system; acceleration triggering level; STA/LTA triggering threshold; communication system; interaction system; sensor; recording system; sensor orientation; sampling rate; soil qualitative description; Eurocode soil identification; Eurocode determination method; frequency of the soil fundamental mode; vs30 value; other site information (site effect or geology); reference publication on the station; instrument site; URL; earthquake waveform data availability; data formats; station installed under BSHAP.
Table 1. Summary of number of strong motion stations (BSHAP-2 Countries) Country ALBANIA CROATIA MACEDONIA MONTENEGRO SERBIA TOTAL: Total No. of Stations 26 19 163 7 43 258 No. of Analog Stations 0 11 117 0 0 128 No of Digital Stations 26 8 46 7 43 130 In Operation Analog Digital 0 25 0 8 80 46 0 6 0 43 80 128

B. Assembling of strong ground motion data set Inventorisation of BSHAP-2 strong motion records was accomplished through creation of metadata integrated file. Available data are systemised and gaps are identified. Process of refinement is ongoing.
Table 2. Summary of number of available strong motion records (BSHAP-2 Countries) Country ALBANIA CROATIA MACEDONIA (IZIIS) MONTENEGRO SERBIA No. of SM records 16 98 1395 490 395 No. of earthquakes 15 68 534 168 357 ML range 3.9 5.4 1.9 6.0 2.1 6.8 2.9 6.8 0.8 6.5 Epicentral Distance (km) 2.61 25.11 4.59 269.50 0.50 570.00 3.92 1172.00 1.00 760.00 Max. Acc (g) 0.094g 0.066g 0.470g 0.087g

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Table 3. Summary on the recorded earthquakes by the SM networks

SERBIA

MONTENEGRO

MACEDONIA (IZIIS)

CROATIA

ALBANIA

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Table 4. Summary on the epicentral distances of the recorded earthquakes

SERBIA

MONTENEGRO

MACEDONIA (IZIIS)

CROATIA

ALBANIA

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Table 5. Summary on the year of the records

SERBIA

MONTENEGRO

MACEDONIA (IZIIS)

CROATIA

ALBANIA

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C. Preparatory activities for digitising and processing of SM records Since a respectable portion of the data base consists of analog records (predominantly from the period 1973 1990), the necessarity of re-digitising of the records is identified, mostly due to 3 main reasons: For the majority of the analog records there is no row data (v1 format). In the archives are only v2 and v3 format of the processed data; For the records that are already been digitised and v1 format data is available, the quiality of the digitising should be improved; and, The archive of analog records contains data of the quite important regional earthquakes. Some of them results with considerable material and human losses.

In that regard, in the frame of the project were disscussed posibilities for re-digitising of the available analog records. As one of the option disscused was the colaboration between PEER and BSHAP-2 in the domain of digitising and prosessing of the available strong motion records. Potential benefits of this colaboration will be: Digitising of the old analog records and improving the digitising quality of already digitised ones; Processing of the strong motion records with the state-of-the-art processing metoologies and softwares; Transfer of knowledge and training of young recearchs from the region on the strong motion records processing; Establishing of active scientific colaboration and exchange of knoledge.

The discussion on the possible colaboration PEER-BSHAP-2 was made during the 3rd Project Workshop in Zagreb, Croatia (28-29.11.2013) with Prof. Yousef Bozognia. In the following period will be dissussed terms of the colaboration and preparation of the Draft Agreement PEER-BSHAP-2. D. Preparatory activities for strong motion web data base design In the frame of preparatory activities were disscused concepts of the data base structure, web application/s and hardwere selection (for web server). 2.1.1.2 Milestones for the next six months In the next six months the following tasks shall be completed: 1. Decision on collaboration for digitising and processing of SM records with PEER. Terms of collaboration to be defined. Draft version of Agreement BSHAP-2 PEER to be prepared. 2. Draft flatfile which includes metadata to be improved and finalised. Report on statistics on available data to be prepared. 3. Identification of primary set of data for processing (to be identified earthquakes/data of the primary interest). 4. Catalogisation of row data and sending to PEER. 5. PEER training on SM processing. 6. Performance of candidate GMPEs for large magnitude events to be checked.

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2.1.3. WP 3: Seismic Source Characterization and GIS Implementation

2.1.3.1. Major Accomplishments Ahead of start of activities in WP 3: Seismic Source Characterization and GIS Implementation, detailed plan of actions was prepared. Durring the Zagreb Meeting 28-29 October 2013, these activities were presented and discussed. Inventory of previous products that refers to this WP-3 was presented and discussed. In particular: o o Regional GIS of seismic active faults (Fig. 6), as well as all original inputs from partners; and, Seismotectonic model prepared as input for elliptical seismicity smoothing procedure (Fig. 8).

Figure 6 - Fault traces in BSHAP region, integrated GIS layer

The activities in WP-3 will start with the thorough investigation of presented fault traces in particular paying attention to continuity and characteristics of faults intersecting national borders.

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Figure 7 Example: Initial Partner contribution differed in presentation type

The common method to present data will be uniquely adopted and person nominated to create finally verified product in GIS. All faults will be assigned named/numbered and effort to create data base consisting fault related major parameters and relevant references is of further interest. In parallel, existing European databases such are SHARE Project outputs, INGV and NOA databases on source zone characterization possessing data relevant to Balkan region will be examined.

Figure 8 - Seismotectonic model created in BSHAP as the input or PSHA

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The sensitivity analysis of PSHA results will be performed: seismotectonic model will be altered in terms of number of seismogenic zones, Mmax etc. for a fixed earthquake catalogue input, to check out how particular parameters influence obtained PGA values. For this purpose, training course in OHAZ will be given to nominated METU young researcher. For the better analysis of particular seismic sources and specific faults database of existing focal plane solutions will be integrated from national data and assigned and compared in respect to recognized fault traces. For this purpose the presentation and instructions how to use FPS program developed by Prof M. Herak has been given, along with the example case of analysis of Seismicity, tectonic framework, and seismic moment release rate in the greater Banja Luka area.

Figure 9 - Focal plane solutions of earthquakes occurred in vicinity of fault (Prof M. Herak, Zagreb Workshop 2013)

According to new Grant Letter issued by NATO SfP Office additional funds to hire experts Slovenian Environmental Agency ARSO, were assigned to Montenegro budget. To start the collaboration Mr. Mladen Zivcic was invited to Zagreb Meeting to present the current status of seismic source characterization in Slovenia, best practices cases in this topic and possible contribution from ARSO to this package, and Project itself. 2.1.3.2. Milestones for the next six months WP-3 coordination activities will follow the milestones suggested during Zagreb Meeting. Intense activities to integrate new seismotectonic model of region and form the focal mechanism plane solution database (providing necessary data to WP-2, as well) will take place.

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2.1.4. WP 4: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Region Not yet started.

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2.1.5. WP 5: Establishing Active Scientific Collaboration and Exchange of Information In the reporting period were realised: 1) 2nd Project Workshop in Belgrade, Republic of Serbia (25-26.04.2013) 2) 3rd Project Workshop in Zagreb, Republic of Croatia (28-29.10.2013) Additionally was organised: 1) Speciall Session on the International Conference on Earthquake Engineering (50SE-EEE) in Skopje, Macedonia (29-31.05.2013) 2) Project presentation on NATO Info Day in Skopje, Macedonia (03.06.2013) During the 3rd project workshop in Zagreb, Croatia, was made an effort for establishing a cooperation between BSHAP-2 and PEER in the domain of strong motion data processing. In the following period will be dissussed terms of the colaboration and preparation of the Draft Agreement PEER-BSHAP-2. Active scientific colaboration is permanently ongoing among the task leaders and project participants. 2.1.6. WP 6: Project Coordination Activities and Training

Project coordination activities are permanently ongoing among project Co-Directors. Training activities are under planning.

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2.2. Actions to insure the implementation of results Country ALBANIA Actions to insure the implementation of results Collaboration with the national authorities (Ministry of Transport and Territory Planning, General Directorate of Civil Emergencies, etc.) to prepare the national documents requested for implementing of the EC8 in Albania, using the results and experience gained from BSHAP1 and BSHAP2 projects. After creation of new and improved earthquake catalogue another important objective was compiling the all available strong motion data (analog data, digitalization of analog recordings, digital data) and further development and expansion of accelerographic network on the area of Croatia. On the basis of established SM database new GMPEs will be derived. This will contribute to the improvement of the existing hazard maps in Croatian territory and to create a basis for the assessment of seismic risk which is the ultimate goal and one of the important mission of the National Protection and Rescue Directorate. As one of the main objectives of the project is harmonization with EU standards (i.e. Euro code 8) the collaboration with Macedonian Institute for Standardization (ISRM; http://www.isrm.gov.mk) is already established and the phase for adopting seismic hazard maps is initiated. So far, the former BSHAP project results have been already implemented within the Montenegro Coastal Area Management Programme. In addition, the findings of this project have been used in elaboration of Physical Plan for the Coastal Region of Montenegro currently under development (both under the auspicious of Ministry of Sustainable Development And Tourism). All the findings of current Improvement project will affect the undergoing activities on transposition of Euro codes into domestic legislations governed by the Engineering Chamber of Montenegro. Creating strong motion catalog of Serbian earthquaqes and processing of all aveable strong motion data. The possibility of collaboration between PEER and the project participants is a significant action to ensure the use of ground motion database in international earthquake engineering practice. Additionally, project participants were encouraged to publish the BSHAP earthquake catalogue in an international journal with a high impact factor.

CROATIA

MACEDONIA

MONTENEGRO

SERBIA TURKEY

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2.3. Involvment of young scientists Country ALBANIA Involvment of young Scientists A young researcher, Dr. Edmond Dushi, seismologist, engaged in the seismic monitoring and seismic data analysis is involved in the project. From the beginning of the project, three young scientists (Snjean Prevolnik, Iva Dasovi and Kreimir Kuk) were involved in realization of project activities. They participated in the revision of earthquake catalogues and preparing the Croatian strong motion databank. Kreimir Kuk also manages all details concerning data exchange with neighboring countries and running and operating national seismic network. From the beginning of the project, young scientist (Ms. Irena Gjorgjeska) is involved in realization of project activities. Ms. Gjorgjeska, student at IZIIS-Skopje, is finalizing her master thesis and start with preparatory works for her PhD Thesis. Due to current restrictive employment policy in public institutions no young personnel have been nominated for this project. Still there is no yung scientists participating this project A young researcher from Turkey, Ms. Marjan Vakilinezhad will help the WP3 task leader to perform sensitivity analysis for seismic sources.

CROATIA

MACEDONIA

MONTENEGRO SERBIA TURKEY

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2.4. Major tralvels Country ALBANIA Major tralvels Major travels were related to participation to project workshops, held in Skopje during 4-5 October 2012, and in Beograd from 25 to 26 April 2013. We also participated and presented the project achievements in the International Conference on Earthquake Engineering, held in Skopje from 29 to 31 May 2013. Major travels during previous six months were related to the 2nd Project Workshop in Belgrade (2012 (I. Ivani and S. Markui). Major travels during previos 6 months period were related to: 1) Second Project Workshop in Belgrade, Republic of Serbia, 25-26.04.2013 (Prof. Z. Milutinovic and R. Salic). 2) Special Sesson, 50SE-EEE Conference in Skopje, Republic of Macedonia, 29-31.05.2013 (Prof. Z. Milutinovic and R. Salic). 3) Third Project Workshop in Zagreb, Republic of Croatia, 2829.10.2013 (Prof. Z. Milutinovic and R. Salic). Major travels during previous six months were to project Workshops: Ms Jadranka Mihaljevic and Mr. Marin Cavelis traveled to Belgrade to 2nd Project workshop, while the 3rd workshop attended Ms Natasa Kaludjerovic and Ms Jadranka Mihaljevic. During the International Earthquake Engineering Conference on occasion 50th anniversary of Skopje earthquake Project-related Special session was scheduled. The seismic sources were presented by Ms Jadranka Mihaljevic. 3rd Project Workshop in Zagreb, Croatia, 28-29.10.2013 Major travels during previous 6 months period were related to: 1) Second Project Workshop in Belgrade, Republic of Serbia, 25-26.04.2013 (Prof. Z. Glerce) 2) Special Session, 50SE-EEE Conference in Skopje, Republic of Macedonia, 29-31.05.2013 (Prof. G. zcebe and Z. Glerce). 3) 2nd Turkish Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology Conference in Hatay, Turkey 29-30.09.2013 (Prof. Z. Glerce) Third Project Workshop in Zagreb, Republic of Croatia, 2829.10.2013 (Prof. Z. Glerce)

CROATIA MACEDONIA

MONTENEGRO

SERBIA TURKEY

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2.5. Visibility of the project Country ALBANIA Visibility of the project The results achieved up to now are presented on the Special Session on the BSHAP project in the frame of International Conference on Earthquake Engineering (29 to 31 May 2013), Skopje, Republic of Macedonia (http://www.se-50eee.org/). All international activities of Croatian team are permanently being announced and updated on the official web site of the Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb. The project and ongoing activities were also mentioned in national news and television by Croatian project Co-Director Prof. Dr. Snjeana Markui. The visibility of the project in the last 6 months period was mainly assured by: 1) Presentation on the project in the frame of NATO Science for Peace and Security (SPS) Programme Information Day in Skopje, June 3, 2013, by Prof. Dr. Zoran Milutinovic. 2) Organising a Special Session on the BSHAP project achievements and improvements in the frame of International Conference on Earthquake Engineering (29 to 31 May 2013), Skopje, Republic of Macedonia (http://www.se-50eee.org/). On the occasion of Information day & Partnership Building, held in Podgorica on January 29, 2013, Project covered expenses for invited speaker Mr. Assoc. Dr. Karol Nemoga, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Bratislava, Slovakia. Mr. Mladen Zivcic, the invited WP-3 expert attended the conference in Zagreb 28-29 October in Zagreb. Avaiable on website of Seismological Survey of Serbia The possibility of collaboration between PEER and the project participants and publication of BSHAP earthquake catalogue in an international journal with a high impact factor were the major actions to increase visibility of the project.

CROATIA

MACEDONIA

MONTENEGRO

SERBIA TURKEY

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Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries SfP-984374

2.6. Technical and Administrative Difficulties Country ALBANIA CROATIA MACEDONIA MONTENEGRO Technical and Administrative Difficulties No any technical and administrative difficulties. No any technical and administrative difficulties. No any technical and administrative difficulties. The formal merging of former public bodies: Institute for Meteorology and Montenegro Seismological Observatory took part during last year. The SfP Office has been formally informed on current institute status. Following, the last Grant letter issued on 14th October recognizes Institute of Hydrometeorology and Seismology as legal Project partner from Montenegro. No any technical and administrative difficulties. None.

SERBIA TURKEY

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Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries SfP-984374

2.7. Changes in the personel Country ALBANIA CROATIA MACEDONIA MONTENEGRO SERBIA TURKEY Changes in the personel No changes in personnel were undertaken. No changes in personnel were undertaken. No changes in personnel were undertaken. No changes in personnel were undertaken. No changes in personnel were undertaken. Affiliations of two team members from Turkey are modified. Prof. Dr. Sinan Akkar is moved to Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute effective from September 15, 2013. Prof. Dr. Gney zcebe is retired from Middle East Technical University Civil Engineering Department and will be acting as The Dean of Faculty of Engineering of TED University, Ankara. Prof. zcebe is still committed in the project activities and he will use both of his affiliations METU, Civil Engineering Department (Retired) and TED University Dean of Faculty of Engineering.

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Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries SfP-984374

2.8. Changes in project plan Country ALBANIA CROATIA MACEDONIA MONTENEGRO SERBIA TURKEY Changes in project plan No change. No change. No change. Within report period no need to change project plan emerged. No change. No change.

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Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries SfP-984374

3. FINANCIAL STATUS 3.1 SfP NATO BUDJET TABLES A) ALBANIA


Science for Peace - Project Management Handbook

Annex 4a

SfP NATO BUDGET TABLE


Please provide one sheet per Project Co-Director ATTENTION: Project Co-Directors from NATO countries (except Bulgaria and Romania) are only eligible for NATO funding for items f-g-h !

Project number: SfP -

984374

Project short title: SfP - BSHAP2

Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries

Report date: 30 October 2013 Duration of the Project 1 : 04.10.2012 - 30.09.2014 / 2 years Prof. Neki Kuka, PhD in Applied Mathematics, Albania Project Co-Director:
ACTUAL EXPENDITURES FORECAST EXPENDITURES (2) for the following six months (3) for the following period until project's end Comments on changes, if any, in the financial planning compared to the approved Project Plan

Detailed Budget Breakdown


(to be completed in EUR 3 ) (a) Equipment
(A1) Nanometrics Trident Digitizers A3) Site preparation, installation, testing and connection to the national seismological network Subtotal "Equipment"

(1) from start until 30.09. 2013

10,500.00 1,500.00 12,000.00 1,870.00 11.00 1,881.00 290.00 993.20 1,283.00 1,216.80

(b) Computers - Software


(B1) 2 PC laptops

1 USB Mouse Subtotal "Computers - Software"

119.00

(c) Training
(C1) Training of two younger researchers Training of two young researchers for SeisComP3 software

(C2) Study tours for two younger researchers Subtotal "Training "

(d1) Books and Journals (global figure) (d2) Publications (global figure)
Subtotal "Books - Publications"

(e) Experts - Advisors

Subtotal "Experts - Advisors "

(f) Travel
(F1) Meetings (F2) Conferences Subtotal "Travel"

5,191.90 5,191.90 1,206.00

1,000.00 1,000.00 294.00

1,808.10 1,808.10

(g) Consumables - Spare parts:

Subtotal "Consumables - Spare parts"

1,206.00

294.00

(h) Other costs


Communication budget

Subtotal "Other costs"

TOTAL (1), (2), (3) :

9,562.10

14,629.80 26,000.00

1,808.10

CURRENT COST OUTLOOK =(1)+(2)+(3)


1 3

2 Give month/year when the Project started and expected ending date. Choose the appropriate date and complete the year. As of January 2002, grants are made in Euro (EUR) and all figures should be given in EUR.

May 2006

28

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Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries SfP-984374

B) CROATIA
Science for Peace - Project Management Handbook

Annex 4a

SfP NATO BUDGET TABLE


Please provide one sheet per Project Co-Director ATTENTION: Project Co-Directors from NATO countries (except Bulgaria and Romania) are only eligible for NATO funding for items f-g-h !

Seismic Maps Harmonization II Project number: SfP - 984374 Project short title: SfP Report date: 7.11.2013 Duration of the Project 1 : 04.10.2012 - 04.10.2014 Project Co-Director: Prof. Dr. Snjeana Markui, Zagreb, Croatia
ACTUAL EXPENDITURES FORECAST EXPENDITURES (2) for the following six months (3) for the following period until project's end Comments on changes, if any, in the financial planning compared to the approved Project Plan

Detailed Budget Breakdown


(to be completed in EUR 3 ) (a) Equipment
(A1) Two strong motion instruments

(1) from start until 30.09. (current year)2

11,500

Subtotal "Equipment"

0 1,326

11,500 400

0 274

(b) Computers - Software


(B1) PC, laptops and printers

Subtotal "Computers - Software"

(c) Training

1,326 0

400 1,500

274 500

Subtotal "Training "

(d1) Books and Journals (global figure) (d2) Publications (global figure)
Subtotal "Books - Publications"

(e) Experts - Advisors

0 0 0 0 0

1,500 0 0 0 0

500 0 0 0 0

Subtotal "Experts - Advisors "

(f) Travel

0 2,800

0 2,000

0 3,200

Subtotal "Travel"

(g) Consumables - Spare parts:

2,800 243

2,000 350

3,200 257

The amount of 150 EUR is transferred to "Other costs" for the ZG meeting organization purpose!

Subtotal "Consumables - Spare parts"

243 1,648

350 0

257 0

(h) Other costs and (i) stipends (specify)


ZG project meeting organization

Subtotal "Other costs"

1,648 6,017 26,000


2

0 15,750

2 4,233

TOTAL (1), (2), (3) :

CURRENT COST OUTLOOK =(1)+(2)+(3)


1 3

Give month/year when the Project started and expected ending date.

Choose the appropriate date and complete the year.

As of January 2002, grants are made in Euro (EUR) and all figures should be given in EUR.

May 2006

28

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Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries SfP-984374

C) MACEDONIA
Science for Peace - Project Management Handbook

Annex 4a

SfP NATO BUDGET TABLE


Please provide one sheet per Project Co-Director ATTENTION: Project Co-Directors from NATO countries (except Bulgaria and Romania) are only eligible for NATO funding for items f-g-h !

BSHAP - IMP Project number: SfP - 984374 Project short title: SfP Report date: 31.03.2013 Duration of the Project 1 : 04.10.2012 - 04.10.2014 Project Co-Director: Ms. Radmila Salic, Skopje, Macedonia
ACTUAL EXPENDITURES FORECAST EXPENDITURES (2) for the following six months (3) for the following period until project's end Comments on changes, if any, in the financial planning compared to the approved Project Plan

Detailed Budget Breakdown


(to be completed in EUR ) (a) Equipment
(A1) Two strong motion instruments R1=
3

(1) from start until 31.03. / 30.09. (current year)2

R2=

0.00 0.00

20,881.48

0.00

Subtotal "Equipment"

0.00 4,110.59 507.93

20,881.48 0.00

0.00 0.00

(b) Computers - Software


(B1) Workstation

R1= R2=

Subtotal "Computers - Software"

4,618.52 0.00 0.00

0.00 3,000.00

0.00 3,000.00

(c) Training R1= R2=

Subtotal "Training "

(d1) Books and Journals (global figure) (d2) Publications (global figure)
Subtotal "Books - Publications"

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

3,000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

3,000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

(e) Experts - Advisors R1= R2=

Subtotal "Experts - Advisors "

0.00 1,462.00 4,459.49

0.00 5,078.51

0.00 5,000.00

(f) Travel R1= R2=

Subtotal "Travel"

5,921.49 314.64 181.21

5,078.51 504.15

5,000.00 1,000.00

(g) Consumables - Spare parts: R1= R2=

Subtotal "Consumables - Spare parts"

495.85 1,089.22 68.58

504.15 342.20

1,000.00 1,000.00

(h) Other costs and (i) stipends (specify) R1= R2=

Subtotal "Other costs"

1,157.80 12,193.66 52,000.00


2

342.20 29,806.34

1,000.00 10,000.00

TOTAL (1), (2), (3) :

CURRENT COST OUTLOOK =(1)+(2)+(3)


1 3

Give month/year when the Project started and expected ending date. Choose the appropriate date and complete the year. As of January 2002, grants are made in Euro (EUR) and all figures should be given in EUR.

May 2006

28

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Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries SfP-984374

D) MONTENEGRO
Science for Peace - Project Management Handbook

Annex 4a

SfP NATO BUDGET TABLE


Please provide one sheet per Project Co-Director ATTENTION: Project Co-Directors from NATO countries (except Bulgaria and Romania) are only eligible for NATO funding for items f-g-h !

Project number: SfP Report date: 1.04.2013. Project Co-Director:

984374

Seismic Maps Harmonization II Project short title: SfP Duration of the Project 1 : 04.10.2012 - 04.10.2014
FORECAST EXPENDITURES (2) for the following six months (3) for the following period until project's end Comments on changes, if any, in the financial planning compared to the approved Project Plan

Jadranka Mihaljevic, Podgorica, Montenegro


ACTUAL EXPENDITURES

Detailed Budget Breakdown


(to be completed in EUR ) (a) Equipment
3

from start until 31.03. 2013

23,000

Subtotal "Equipment"

(b) Computers - Software

0 0

23,000 0

0 1,500

Risen for 1.000 in respect to plan according to current prices

Subtotal "Computers - Software"

(c) Training
Subtotal "Training "

0 0 0 0 0 0 592 508

0 5,000 5,000 0 0 0 2,492

1,500 7,500 5,000 0 0 0 3,000

1.000 redirected to budegetary item Equipement

10.000 as planned

(d1) Books and Journals (global figure) (d2) Publications (global figure)
Subtotal "Books - Publications"

(e) Experts - Advisors


Podgorica Info day: invited expert Mr. K. Nemoga Zagreb Meeting: invited expert Mr M. Zivcic

Subtotal "Experts - Advisors "

1,100 721.5 732.58 723.34 1,592 3,769 0

2,492 3,000

3,000

Risen for the costs of expert -Podgorica SfP info day

(f) Travel
Skopje Kick off Meeting Belgrade 2nd Meeting 50SE EEE Konference Zagreb 3rd Meeting Subtotal "Travel"

(g) Consumables - Spare parts:

2,231 0

2,000 908

8.000 as planned

Subtotal "Consumables - Spare parts"

(h) Other costs and (i) stipends (specify)


Stipends

0 116

0 384

908 1,500

592 EUR redirected to item Experts


116 EUR - nonreturnable ticket for canceled Belgrade meeting

Subtotal "Other costs"

116 4,985 52,000

384 33,107

1,500 13,908

TOTAL (1), (2), (3) :

CURRENT COST OUTLOOK =(1)+(2)+(3)


1 3

2 Choose the appropriate date and complete the year. Give month/year when the Project started and expected ending date. As of January 2002, grants are made in Euro (EUR) and all figures should be given in EUR.

May 2006

28

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Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries SfP-984374

E) SERBIA
Science for Peace - Project Management Handbook

Annex 4a

SfP NATO BUDGET TABLE


Please provide one sheet per Project Co-Director ATTENTION: Project Co-Directors from NATO countries (except Bulgaria and Romania) are only eligible for NATO funding for items f-g-h !

Seismic Maps Harmonization II Project number: SfP - 984374 Project short title: SfP Report date: 12.11.2013 Duration of the Project 1 : 04.10.2012 - 04.10.2014 Project Co-Director: Mr. Vladan Kovacevic, Belgrade, Serba
ACTUAL EXPENDITURES FORECAST EXPENDITURES (2) for the following six months (3) for the following period until project's end Comments on changes, if any, in the financial planning compared to the approved Project Plan

Detailed Budget Breakdown


(to be completed in EUR ) (a) Equipment
(A1) Two strong motion instruments
3

(1) from start until 12.12.2013 (current year)


2

0.00

26,500.00

0,00

Subtotal "Equipment"

0.00 0.00

26,500.00 0.00

0.00 0.00

(b) Computers - Software


(B1) PC, laptops and printers

Subtotal "Computers - Software"

(c) Training

0.00 0.00

0.00 3,000.00

0.00 2,500.00

Subtotal "Training "

(d1) Books and Journals (global figure) (d2) Publications (global figure)
Subtotal "Books - Publications"

(e) Experts - Advisors

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

3,000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2,500.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Subtotal "Experts - Advisors "

0.00 733.33 720.00 1,014.00 2,467.33 0.00

0.00 2,000.00

0.00 3,500.00

(f) Travel
Skoplje Istambul Zagreb

Subtotal "Travel"

(g) Consumables - Spare parts:

2,000.00 500.00

3,500.00 500.00

Subtotal "Consumables - Spare parts"

(h) Other costs and (i) stipends (specify)


Belgrade project meeting organization

0.00 0.00 1,029.00

500.00 500.00 1,503.67

500.00 500.00 1,500.00

Subtotal "Other costs"

1,029.00

2,003.67

2,000.00

TOTAL (1), (2), (3) :

3,496.33 46,000.00
2

34,003.67

8,500.00

CURRENT COST OUTLOOK =(1)+(2)+(3)


1 3

Give month/year when the Project started and expected ending date. Choose the appropriate date and complete the year. As of January 2002, grants are made in Euro (EUR) and all figures should be given in EUR.

May 2006

28

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Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries SfP-984374

E) TURKEY
Annex 4a

Science for Peace - Project Management Handbook

SfP NATO BUDGET TABLE


Please provide one sheet per Project Co-Director ATTENTION: Project Co-Directors from NATO countries (except Bulgaria and Romania) are only eligible for NATO funding for items f-g-h !

Seismic Maps Harmonization II 984374 Project number: SfP Project short title: SfP 1 Report date: 20 October 2013 Duration of the Project : 04.10.2012 - 04.10.2014 Asst. Prof. Dr. Zeynep Gulerce, Ankara, Turkey Project Co-Director:
ACTUAL EXPENDITURES FORECAST EXPENDITURES (2) for the following six months (3) for the following period until project's end Comments on changes, if any, in the financial planning compared to the approved Project Plan

Detailed Budget Breakdown


(to be completed in EUR 3 ) (a) Equipment

from start until 30.09. 2013

Subtotal "Equipment"

(b) Computers - Software

0 2,468

0 2,000

0 1,532

Subtotal "Computers - Software"

(c) Training

2,468 0

2,000 1,500

1,532 1,500

Subtotal "Training "

(d1) Books and Journals (global figure) (d2) Publications (global figure)
Subtotal "Books - Publications"

(e) Experts - Advisors

0 0 0 0 0

1,500 400 0 500 0

1,500 500 1,000 1,500 0

Subtotal "Experts - Advisors "

(f) Travel

0 2,978

0 2,000

0 7,022

Subtotal "Travel"

(g) Consumables - Spare parts:

2,978 121

2,000 379

7,022 500

Subtotal "Consumables - Spare parts"

(h) Other costs

121 89

379 411

500 500

Subtotal "Other costs"

89 5,656 25,000

411 6,790

500 12,555

TOTAL (1), (2), (3) :

CURRENT COST OUTLOOK =(1)+(2)+(3)


1 3

2 Give month/year when the Project started and expected ending date. Choose the appropriate date and complete the year. As of January 2002, grants are made in Euro (EUR) and all figures should be given in EUR.

May 2006

28

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Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries SfP-984374

3.2 SfP NATO SUMMARY BUDJET TABLES


Project number: SfP Report date: The Project is in the year: 984374 4.01.04-30.09.13 1 ACTUAL EXPENDITURES CURRENT COST OUTLOOK: Total year 1 - 2 26,000 26,000 52,000 52,000 46,000 25,000 227,000.00 since start until 31.03.2013 of 2 current year 9,562.10 6,017.00 12,193.66 4,985.00 3,496.33 5,656.00 41,910.09 ACTUAL EXPENDITURES CURRENT COST OUTLOOK: Total year 1-2 93,881.48 16,118.52 28,999.80 2,000.00 6,592.00 59,967.33 7,258.00 12,182.67 227,000.00 since start until 31.03.2013 of 2 current year 0.00 10,293.52 1,283.00 0.00 1,100.00 23,127.72 2,065.85 4,039.80 41,910.09 FORECAST EXPENDITURES for the following 6 months 14,629.80 15,750.00 29,806.34 33,107.00 34,003.67 6,790.00 134,086.81 for the following period until project's end 1,808.10 4,233.00 10,000.00 13,908.00 8,500.00 12,554.00 51,003.10 Comments on changes, if any, in financial planning compared to the approved Project Plan Project short title: SfP Duration of the Project1: BSHAP-II 04.10.12 04.10. 2014 / 2 years / Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries

Breakdown per Project Co-Director APPROVED BUDGET: Total year 1-2 Prof. Neki Kuka, AL Prof. Snezana Markusic, CRO Radmila Salic, MK Jadranka Mihaljevic, MNE Vladan Kovacecic, SRB Prof. Zeynep Gulerce, TR TOTAL 26,000 26,000 52,000 52,000 46,000 25,000 227,000.00

Breakdown per item (to be completed in EUR 3) Prof Zeynep Gulerce Turkey (a) Equipment. (b) Computers - Software (c) Training (d) Books - Publications (e) Experts - Advisors (f) Travel (g) Consumables - Spare parts: (h) Other costs and (i) stipends TOTAL : APPROVED BUDGET: Total year 1-2 94,500.00 17,500.00 29,000.00 2,000.00 6,000.00 59,000.00 8,000.00 11,000.00 227,000.00

FORECAST EXPENDITURES for the following 6 months 93,881.48 2,519.00 15,216.80 500.00 2,492.00 14,309.51 2,027.15 3,140.87 134,086.81 for the following period until project's end 0.00 3,306.00 12,500.00 1,500.00 3,000.00 22,530.10 3,165.00 5,002.00 51,003.10 Comments on changes, if any, in financial planning compared to the approved Project Plan

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Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries SfP-984374

4. EQUIPMENT INVENTORY RECORDS


Model Number Serial Number Date of Purchase

Inventory Label # Albania Croatia Macedonia Montenegro Serbia Turkey 3064

Property Item

Manufacturer

Cost (EUR)

Location

Workstation

DELL

M4700

27.11.2012

4,110.59

MK

3052

Computer

Sony

Vaio i53317U

27.05.2013

2121.77

TR

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Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries SfP-984374

5. CRITERIA FOR SUCCESS TABLE


Project number: 984374 Report date: March 31, 2013. The Project is in the year : 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 Project short title: BSHAP-IMP Duration of the Project : 04.10.12-04.10.2014 /2 years/

Criteria for Success as approved with the first Grant Letter on: 10-07-2012 % Seismic instruments deployments and integration into national networks 15

Criteria for Success: Achievements as at 04.10.12/31.03 of current year 3 (changes should be reflected here) No purchase of equipment is realized. (1) Updating BSHAP-1 catalogue with 3.0 < M < 3.5 earthquakes from 1970 and earthquakes occurred between 2010 and 2012; (2) Compilation of Data; (3) Comparison with ISC-GEM and SHARE-GEM Catalogues. (1) Refinement in the inventorisation of BSHAP-2 countries strong motion seismic networks; (2) Assembling of BSHAP-2 strong ground motion data set through creation of metadata integrated file; (3) Preparatory activities for (digitizing) and data processing; and, (4) Preparatory activities for BSHAP-2 strong motion web data base design. (1) Detailed prepared. plan of actions was

% 0

Final earthquake catalogue compatible with international standards

15

14

Building a harmonized accelerometric databank by unifying the formats of the collected strong ground motion data

10

Modeling of seismic source characteristics of the region as an input to the PSHA Hazard assessment applying unified methodological approach consistent to EU standards and GIS hazard maps

20

35

Not yet started

NATO Info Day in Montenegro. Dissemination of the results to the international scientific community International Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Skopje, Macedonia, June 2013 (Special Session). NATO Info Day in Macedonia. Project Web Site Operable.

TOTAL :

100%

26%

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Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries SfP-984374

Annex 7

OUTLINE OF THE SfP 984374 SUMMARY REPORT


SfP Seismic Maps Harmonization II SfP-984374 Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries Project Co-Directors: Asst. Prof. Dr. Zeynep Gulerce, METU, Ankara, Turkey (NPD) Asst. Prof. Radmila Salic, IZIIS, Skopje, Macedonia (PPD) Prof. Dr. Neki Kuka, Institute of Geosciences, Energy, Water and Environment, Tirana, Albania Prof. Dr. Hazim Hrvatovic, Geological Survey of Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina Asst. Prof. Dr. Snjezana Markusic, Department of Geophysics, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia Civil. Eng. Jadranka Mihaljevic, Montenegro Seismological Observatory, Podgorica, Montenegro Eng. Vladan Kovacevic, Seismological Survey of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia Approval Date: Duration: NATO Budget: 10.07.2012 2 years (October 2014) 232,000.00 EUR Effective Date: 04.10.2012

Information about the SfP Project through Internet: The website of the project is prepared according to the NATO visual identity guidelines and launched on March, 2013. The web address for the website is http://www.wbalkanseismicmaps.org/. Abstract of Research The Western Balkans is a seismically active region and characterized by significantly higher earthquake hazard and risk when compared to the rest of Europe. The main goals to achieve are improvement in the initial harmonized seismic hazard maps of the participating countries by implementing state-of-the art probabilistic seismic hazard assessment techniques and the outputs of the BSHAP project, integration of improved seismic hazard maps with the ongoing seismic hazard studies in Europe and surrounding countries and collaboration and exchange of information between the participating country scientific communities and earthquake professionals around the world. To this end, the recently deployed seismic stations, seismic data exchange protocols, earthquake catalogue and hazard studies conducted by the BSHAP participants will be brought to a more enhanced level with the opportunities provided by the new project. The end users of the Project results will be governmental disaster management agencies, ministries of environment or agencies responsible for environmental protection and sustainable development in the Balkan region. The civil protection agencies as well as the insurance companies, in all of the participating countries, may benefit from these results by using it to estimate seismic risk at certain region/location. Consequently, they will introduce risk prevention, preparedness and mitigation measures. Direct users of Project results should be structural engineers, earthquake engineers, and physical planers in the whole region. Major Objectives Compiling and integrating the available strong ground motion data recorded by the improved seismic networks during BSHAP or previously occurred earthquakes using the outputs of earlier scientific projects. Improving the BSHAP earthquake catalogue by adding unified earthquake metadata such as magnitude, depth, and style-of-faulting information and site characterization of selected strong ground motion recording stations. Selecting and implementing proper ground motion prediction equations for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment by comparing the compiled strong ground motion data with available global, European, Euro-Med, and regional ground motion prediction models. Encouraging the use of collected strong ground motion database for the end users and

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Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries SfP-984374

international earthquake research communities by realizing improved multi-lateral data exchange protocols and publishing the major project findings in an open-to-public web portal. Collecting the available information on seismotectonical source characterization of faults and background zones in the Geological Information Systems (GIS) framework with the help of BHSAP and other scientific project outputs. Providing expertise to the participants for implementing the seismic source characterization as the input of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment framework. Improving the seismic hazard maps of the region using the project end products (seismotectonic and accelerometric database) and state-of-the art seismic hazard assessment methods. Establishing active scientific collaboration and exchange of information between the participating countries and scientific communities all around the world. Training of future-promising young scientists in earthquake-hazard related topics by conducting group meetings, workshops and training seminars.

Overview of Achievements since the Start of the Project until (30 September 2012) Three project workshops were realized (in Skopje, Belgrade and Zagreb). Special session on the project was organised during International Conference on Earthquake Engineering (50SE-EEE) in Skopje, Macedonia. BSHAP-1 catalogue was updated with 3.0 < M < 3.5 earthquakes from 1970 and earthquakes occurred between 2010 and 2012. Catalogue data were compiled and comparison between ISC-GEM and SHARE-GEM catalogues was accomplished. Refinement in the inventorisation of strong motion seismic networks and assembling of strong ground motion data set through creation of metadata integrated file was finalised. Preparatory activities for (digitising) and data processing as well as BSHAP-2 strong motion web data base design were initiated. Detailed plan of actions was prepared for the task related to the modelling of seismic source characteristics.

Payments through NATO Funds: 41,910.09 EUR


Milestones for the Next Six Months The equipment purchase for all participating institutes should be realized; Neighbors to check the buffer zones and send updates to Croatia, All, 01 Dec 13; Magnitude conversion equation (for M>4) needs to be revisited. Magnitude couples to be checked, Albania, 01 Dec 13; Full catalog to be distributed among the participants, Croatia, 01 Jan 14; After the catalogue is finalized, declustering and completeness check to be performed, Serbia, 01 Feb 14; Draft flatfile including metadata should be improved + some statistics to be provided. File format for each Country to be determined, Macedonia, 01 Dec 13; Decision on collaboration for digitization and processing with PEER to be made. Terms of collaboration to be identified, All, Turkey, PEER, 01 Jan 14; Analog period data that is already digitized to be send to Macedonia for the flatfile, All, 01 Jan 14; Performance of candidate GMPEs for large magnitude events should be checked, Turkey, 01 Feb 14; Available SM data for Slovenia will be submitted to the BSHAP-2, Slovenia, ASAP; Nominate team to check out existing GIS fault layer, All, 01 Dec 2013; Check out GIS layer e.g. fault traces and cross border discontinuities of presented faults, All, 01 Feb 2014; Present data in unique GIS, Albania, Montenegro, Macedonia, 01 Sept 2014; Perform training in OHAZ for METU team participant, Turkey, Montenegro, Albania, 30 Dec 2013; Perform sensibility analysis on OHAZ results in respect to seismotectonic modeling, Turkey, Montenegro, Albania, March 2013; Nominate experts to determine new zones, All, 01 Dec 2013; Zone delineation expert opinion, All, March 2013; Define precisely form of input data for PSHA February/March, Albania; Confirm the willingness to provide national FPS database & nominate the team dedicated to PFS data base development, All, 01 Dec 2013;

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Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries SfP-984374

FPS software to be uploaded to Drop Box, Croatia, ASAP; Deliver FPS database results, Montenegro, Croatia, March 2014; WP3 Meeting, Albania, March 2014; Support to sensitivity analysis and OHAZ training, Slovenia, Dec 2013; Support in zone delineation, Slovenia, March 2013; Support to integrate results of similar EU project and data bases on seismic sources, Slovenia, Feb 2013;

Implementation of Results The Civil Engineering Faculties/Departments of the regional universities as well as the concerned Ministries and Engineering Chambers are the major civil entities that will make use of the outcomes of this project to upgrade the national seismic provisions for their further adoption to EUROCODE 8 standards. Results of the Project will be available to all foreseen end-users in all participating countries NATO Consultant: N/A Other Collaborating Institutions Seismological Observatory, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Skopje, Republic of Macedonia. Intellectual Property (IP) Rights: N/A

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