Horse Racing - Betfair

Betfair King No Risk Betting
Page 1 of 30

Table of Contents
INTRODUCTION 2
SO WHAT AFFECTS THE PRICE? 4
PREDICTING THE PRICE SWINGS 5
THE TRADER PUNTER 7
THE TWO BASIC TYPES OF TRADES 8
The Safe Stake Trade 8
The Win-Win Trade 10
CALCULATING YOU POSITION 13
WORKED EXAMPLES 15
Horse Racing - Safe Stake Trade Example 1 15
Horse Racing - Safe Stake Trade Example 2 18
Golf Example 1 A Win-Win Trade 21
Golf Example 2 Another Win-Win Trade 23
LOOK AND LISTEN, ALWAYS! 26
GOOD LUCK, NOT THAT YOU NEED IT ANY MORE. 27
FURTHER SAMPLE TESTS 28
Test 1 28
Test 2 29
TEST ANSWERS 30
Answer 1 30
Answer 2 30

Page 2 of 30
Introduction

Welcome to the information that will change how you view betting forever.
This is the key to the only form of risk free gambling I know. Yes this is truly
no risk investment, zero risk, your stake is 100% protected!

You dont even need to study any form. You dont need to know one end of a
horse from the other. All you need is to study the information I will give you
here, a small betting bank and a betting exchange account. You can then
create bets where you simply cannot lose.

This information really could change your life! It is your key to years of tax-
free extra income.

If you were like me you have dabbled with betting and laying on the betting
exchanges. The one thing that always fascinated me was how the price
constantly changed. And the one thing that really annoyed me was backing a
horse at say 2.5 only for its price to drift out to 3.1 minutes later. Or the
opposite, laying a horse at 3.2 only for its price to shorten to 2.9 moments
later. If only there was a way to know with 100% certainty which way the
price was going to move.

If I could know which way a price was going to go then I could trade at these
changing prices making consistent profits making risk free bets.
Well there is a way!

And its not some complex mathematical formulas; its simple supply and
demand. Once I found out how to do this, I couldnt believe how easy it was.
It simply blew my mind. I couldnt sleep the night after discovering it the
possibilities are endless.

All of this is only now becoming possible due to the introduction of the betting
exchanges. Betting exchanges have revolutionised the way people gamble.
Yet most people are still unaware of the opportunities available to them. At
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last you can bet on a horse, team or person to lose. We have now returned to
the most simplistic form of betting, 2 people with different opinions betting
against each other.

This technique can be used on any market on the betting exchanges, horses,
football, golf, tennis, snooker, rugby, big brother, whatever! The principle is
exactly the same.

So whats the catch? There is none. This is not a scam. Its 100% legal.
100% Tax Free. 100% Risk Free.

All it takes is for you to read this course and a small amount of your time. You
will be well on your way to making consistent extra income trading on the
exchanges.

Page 4 of 30
So what affects the price?

As punters place backs and lays on the betting exchanges, the amount of
money and price they want or are offering is displayed on the exchanges
trading window. As bets are placed and matched at higher and lower odds,
this is what causes the price to rise or fall. What makes the price rise and fall
is the money. And if you can see where the money is (and you can) you can
determine what way the price will go and therefore how to trade to make a
profit.

The amounts below each of the prices represent bets waiting to be matched
my other traders.

To explain things in two sentences.
If the amount on the Back side is much larger than the amount on the
lay side, people want to Lay the horse, so the price will drift.
If the amount on the Lay side is much larger then than the amount on
the Back side, people want to back the horse, so the price will shorten.

Read the above again a few times to ensure you have it. This is the key. Its
simple supply and demand.

Take some time. Get a cup of coffee or a beer and just sit and watch the
markets on Betfair or Betdaq. You will be amazed at how this works 99% of
the time and how easy it is to spot.

Have you had that Eureka feeling yet?

Page 5 of 30
Predicting The Price Swings

Before you attempt do any trading, the most important thing to study on the
betting exchanges is the fluctuating price on whatever market you are going to
trade on. The ability to predict these price movements is quite simply a licence
to print money for the patient trader. This is because you can generate
consistent income by trading on fluctuating prices on horses prior to a race. So
the ability to know whether the price on a particular horse is likely to lengthen or
shorten is, quite literally, priceless. It is not rocket science by any means; it is
simply supply and demand.

As backers and layers put up their respective bets or lays, their money shows
up on screen alongside the price they wish to back or lay a horse, and that price
rises and falls as more money is placed and matched at higher or lower odds.

You can see all the money waiting to be matched on a horse by clicking on that
horses name on the betting exchange.

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This screen shows a wealth of information for the Trader. A graph showing the
price movements over time and how much money is already matched at each
price and more importantly how much money is waiting to be Laid or Backed at
each price.

Remember, this is supply and demand; all the money you see displayed beneath
the decimal prices represents bets waiting to be matched by other punters. If a
proportionally larger amount of money is waiting to be matched in the back
section of the screen, that means people are laying the horse because they think
it will lose. So all these layers are effectively going to force the price to drift - so this
would be a good time to Lay.

If a proportionally larger amount of money is waiting to be matched in the Lay
section of the on-screen display, that means people want to bet on the horse
because they think it will win. So all these backers are going to cause the price
to shorten - so this would be a good time to Back.

This takes a bit of getting used to. What you now need to do is spend some
time staring at the watching numbers go up and down and hopefully predicting
which way the price will go. Sit down and try it. Practice makes perfect.

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The Trader Punter

So how do we create this wonderful thing, the risk-free bet? This is done by simply
taking advantage of fluctuating prices. This is exactly the same as how the
stock exchange works. The Dictionary defines a Punter as 'a person who
gambles or lays a bet' - you will be doing both. You will be trading at these
fluctuating prices within certain periods of time on an event in order to make
risk-free profits.

Lets take a very simple, if extreme example:

Let's say there a horse Black Beauty, an outsider who is trading on Betfair at
25/1 (26.0) in the morning. Youre watching AtTheRaces or reading the
RacingPost and you see he is napped by a couple of Tipsters

So let's say you put 100 on him to win at that price, thinking the price would
drop. At this point you would see a return of 3400 if Black Beauty came first -
but you would lose 100 if he did not.

A couple of hours later Black Beauty has shortened to a backing price of 11.0, and
let's say his best laying price is offered at 12.0. You could then trade your position
in other to give you a bet where your stake is 100% Secure. The gold at the end
of the rainbow, A No Risk Bet. There are a couple of different choices you now
have. You can make what I call The Safe Stake Trade OR The Win-Win Trade
and Ill know explain these now.

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The Two Basic Types of Trades
The Safe Stake Trade

Right, you are know no longer the Mug Punter you are interested purely in
safe bets or profitable trades. Exactly how the big bookmakers operate. The
golden rule is simple: protect your stake. So we backed Black Beauty on the
exchanges for 100 at a price of 26.0. Now we see that he's being offered a lay
price of 12.0, so we take that price and lay him for 100. Now our stake is safe.
Basically what we have here is a free 100 bet at 14.0.

But laying comes at a price, and that must be factored into our calculations. If
you lay a horse, you don't 'pay' money up front. Rather, you accept the
backer's stake, and you need to have sufficient funds in your account to cover
your bet. We laid Black Beauty for our requested stake of 100, which means
we will get 100 from a matched backer of this horse if it loses, but if it wins we
will pay 1200 - 100 of which is the backer's stake returned, with the
remaining 1100 being our own liability. But remember, we have backed Black
Beauty at longer odds, and so this is a Safe Stake Trade which will result in
one of the following:

Black Beauty WINS
BACK: 100 at 26.0 returns 2600 minus 100 stake = 2500 profit
LAY: 100 at 12.0 means you pay 1200: 100 backer's stake, 1100 liability
TOTAL: 2500 minus 1100 = 1400 profit.

Black Beauty LOSES
BACK: 100 - you lose this 100 stake
LAY: 100 - you collect the backer's stake of 100
TOTAL: 100 stake lost, 100 returned from lay = 0. Break-even.

However, with the example above - even after that impressive drop in price: 26.0
down to 11.0 the horse has a greater chance of losing than winning
(90.91% chance of losing at the percentage calculation on the shorter price).
It's not impossible, just unlikely that it will win. This is why the 'Safe Stake Trade'
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should normally be reserved for favourites or more fancied horses that do
stand a greater winning chance.

I must now say a few words about commission. Betting exchanges make their
money by charging a commission on customers' winnings. This generally ranges
from 2% to 5%. This commission, however, is charged on net winnings per
event. So even though we technically won 100 through laying Black Beauty,
commission would not be charged by an exchange deducting on net winnings,
since we also lost 100 through backing Black Beauty - net winnings zero,
deductions zero. So the 'Safe Stake Trade' is just that: Safe. If you win, you win; if
you lose, you don't lose; and 'Safe Stake Trades' can and do pay off when
applied in the right circumstances.
But if you want to win when you win, and win when you lose, then you can try
the other type of trade, the Win-Win Trade.

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The Win-Win Trade

The above example of Black Beauty's improving price is the perfect opportunity
for a Win-Win Trade which can take two forms. A Win-Win Trade simply
means you will make money whatever the outcome of the event, that really is
the Pot of Gold.

Here are the two scenarios with Black Beauty:
In the first option, we back him for 100 at 26.0.
We then lay him for 120 at 12.0.

Black Beauty WINS
LAY: 120 at 12.0 you pay out 1440: 120 backer's stake, liability 1320

Black Beauty LOSES
BACK: 100, so you lose this 100 stake
LAY: 120, so you collect this 120 backer's stake
TOTAL: 100 stake lost, 120 returned from lay = 20 profit.

Your first reaction to the above might be something like, After all that I end up
with just 20? And I should be happy about it?' Well, yes you should be.
Remember your 20 net winnings - minus the commission - would be risk free.
So you didn't really put any money on the horse as you protected your stake,
and that's an important part of trading - you have to see beyond the stake,
whether it's the amount you back or lay, and you need to focus purely on the
prices and the amount you stand to make from your trades. In this case, we
couldn't lose. As the saying goes its the small drip that fills the buckets. If you could
make 5 - 10 of these trades each day, thats 100 - 200 profit a day. With no risk.
Thats about 30,000 to 60,000 a year even taking holidays. Thats probably as much
or more than your earning in a job.

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Black Beauty's price shift doesn't happen frequently enough, though it does
happen - and quite often you will hear references to horses being 'positive on the
exchanges' with, in many cases, dramatic improvements in price. But you
don't need such dramatic price shifts in order to create successful trades, and I
will give examples later of the more common opportunities that present
themselves every day. This is the discerning trader's mainstay, and by executing
safe stake or win-win trades in the right circumstances - adopting exactly the
same principles as those described with Black Beauty - you will soon see how
achievable a healthy profit can be.

The second kind of Win-Win trade takes the form of an extra lay. Here, we
would back Black Beauty for 100 at 26.0. Then we would lay him for 100 at 12.0.
So now we have a 'Safe Stake Trade. In order to make it a profitable one
whatever the outcome, we need to lay him again.

Remember what will happen if he is successful:
Black Beauty WINS
BACK: 100 at 26.0 returns 2600 minus 100 stake, 2500 profit
LAY: 100 at 12.0 means you pay 1200: 100 backer's stake, liability 1100

So 1400 is the potential profit from a win. But also remember this horse is more
likely to lose. So unless we are focusing on safe stake trades with favourites
that do stand a pretty good chance of winning the race, always assume that the
horse will lose - therefore, create a trade that will maximise your profits on the
losing side. Let's try not to be lured by that impressive 1400, and instead deal
with the probable reality of this particular horse losing. This is where our 'extra
lay' comes in.
If we then lay Black Beauty for 80 at 12.0 we are still going to be in great shape
whatever happens in the race.
Black Beauty WINS
LAY: 100 at 12.0 means you pay 1200: 100 backer's stake, liability 1100
SUB TOTAL: 2500 minus 1100 = 1400 profit
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EXTRA LAY: 100 at 12.0 means you pay 1200 minus 100 backer's stake =
1100 liability
GRAND TOTAL: 1400 minus 1100 = 300 profit.

Black Beauty LOSES
LAY1: 100, the horse lost so you win the backer's 100 stake
LAY2: 100, the horse lost so you win the backer's 100 stake
GRAND TOTAL: 100 profit.

With the extra lay, our Win-Win Trade means 300 if the horse wins, 100 if the
horse loses. This is now a true win-win situation. Your money is safe and you
can watch the race without having to worry about the result, expecting to win
100 and being surprised and thrilled if you win 300.

Page 13 of 30
Calculating You Position

The ability to calculate your winning and losing positions against the changing
prices on the exchanges forms a very important part of trading. The more you
do it, the easier it becomes. Betfair provides a number of settings to assist the
trader. Particularly useful is to show you future position if the bet you are in the
process of making was matched. This allows you to adjust you stake to create
the best resulting trade before actually placing the bet.

Oddschecker.com provide a handy hedging tool to calculate how much to Lay
on a horse you have previous backed which has now shortened in price in
order to guarantee a profit win or lose. You can get this at
http://www.oddschecker.com/powertools/hedging_calculator.html

I also provide a Back and Lay Calculator where you can calculate your
amounts to Bet or Lay to trade to a profitable position see screenshot below
This is 100% Free to purchasers of this book and can be downloaded at
http://www.betfairking.com/without_fl/calc.htm

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The majority of the time you will be dealing with smaller price differentials than
those created by Black Beauty, but the principles are always the same: protect
your stake; maximise profits. By trading with large stakes - that are backed and
laid to offset the risk - and acting swiftly on fluctuating prices, you can capitalise
on trades that emerge for practically every race meeting. You only need a small
price differential to generate profit, and for the most part you will be dealing with
small incremental increases or decreases in a horse's price, looking to
accumulate moderate and steady profits.

I believe a combination of Safe Stake Trades and 'Win-Win Trades is the
best way to make money on the exchanges without incurring the risk associated
with traditional bets. You could easily set a target of 100 a day doing this.
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Worked Examples

Horse Racing - Safe Stake Trade Example 1

Looking at the first screenshot we have the 2.20 a Perth where we have a
strong short price favourite in Decisive, currently available to back at 2.02.
However I know that this price is going to drift. I know this because as we
have already said, looking at the screen I can see substantially more money
on the back side than on the lay side. To be exact 4306 on the Back side &
1898 on the Lay side. So knowing that this price will drift I decide to Lay
Decisive, getting 200 laid at 2.04.

Now lets look at the next screenshot about 20 seconds later. The back price
is now 2.08. I could now make a Safe Stake Trade by backing Decisive at
2.08. However I know it will drift further so I wait.

Page 16 of 30

Now lets look at the final screenshot. The back price is now 2.16. I now
make a Safe Stake Trade by backing Decisive for 200 at 2.16.

By doing this I have made my stake 100% safe. If Decisive does lose I break
even. However if Decisive wins I make 24. As it happens Decisive actually
Page 17 of 30
trotted up by 20 Lengths, the result never in doubt. Check the result 22
nd

September, 2.20 at Perth.

So how did that work?

If Decisive WINS
LAY: 200 at 2.04 means you pay 408 - 200 backer's stake, 208 your liability
TOTAL: 232 minus 208 = 24.

If Decisive LOSES
BACK: 200 - you lose this 200 stake
LAY: 200 - you collect the backer's stake of 200
TOTAL: 200 stake lost, 200 returned from lay = 0. Break-even.

Now perhaps your saying After all that I end up with just 24? Well again yes
and you should be bloody delighted about it. Remember your 24 profit - minus
the commission - was risk free. So you didn't really put any money on the
horse as you protected your stake, you basically had a free 200 bet at 0.12.
Page 18 of 30
Horse Racing - Safe Stake Trade Example 2

Looking at the first screenshot we have the 4.40 at Fontwell where we have a
reasonable open Handicap Chase. The horse that has caught my attention is
Celtic Star, currently available to back at 5.9, Lay at 6.0

However for several reasons I know that this price is going to drift.
I know this because as we have already said looking at the screen I can see
more money on the Back side than on the Lay side. To be exact 733 on the
Back side & 506 on the Lay side. Now this does not seem much but the
amount available at back at 5.9 is 227 and the amount available to lay is only
6, a large difference, so this is enough to grab my attention.

So knowing that this price will drift I decide to Lay Celtic Star, getting 100 laid
at 6.0.

Now lets look at the next screenshot about 20 seconds later. The back price
is now 6.6. I could know make a Safe Stake Trade by backing Celtic Star at
6.6. However look at the difference now. 2711 on the Back side & 506 on
the Lay side, a substantial difference. Therefore I now know it will definitely
drift further so I wait.

Page 19 of 30

Now lets look at the final screenshot. The back price is now 7.2. I now make
a Win-Win Trade by backing Celtic Star for 100 at 7.2.

Page 20 of 30

By doing this I have firstly made my stake 100% safe. But also traded to a
situation where I have made 20 whether Celtic Star wins or loses. As it
happens Celtic Star ran poorly and trailed in 5
th
. However we didnt care as
we had made our 20 profit already. Check the result 22
nd
September, 4.40
at Fontwell.

So how did that work?

Celtic Star WINS
LAY: 120 at 6.0 means you pay out 720 - 120 backer's stake, liability 600
TOTAL: 620 minus 600 - 20 profit.

Celtic Star LOSES
LAY: 120, so you collect this 120 backer's stake

Page 21 of 30
Golf Example 1 A Win-Win Trade

The same principles work for any sport. Match-Play golf is a great trading
medium.

Looking at the first screenshot we have a 4 Ball Match Up from the Seve
Trophy.

There is a lot of money available on Howell/Casey to back at 1.8 just before
Tee-Off, so we have 200 at 1.8.

No look at the next screenshot after the first hole. Which by the way
Howell/Casey won putting them 1 Up in the match.

Page 22 of 30

Now we can lay Howell/Casey at 1.6, 0.2 less that what we backed them at.
We could lay them for 200 at 1.6. This would mean we have completely
protected our stake. If Howell/Casey end up losing we break even. If they
end up winning we make 40. Basically we have a free 200 at 0.2. A Risk
Free Bet.

Or we could lay them for 225 at 1.6. This would mean we win 25 regardless
of the result. If they win we make 25 if the lose we make 25.
Let me explain how.

Howell/Casey WIN
LAY: 225 at 1.6 means you pay out 360 - 225 backer's stake, liability 135

Howell/Casey LOSES
LAY: 225, so you collect this 225backer's stake

Looks Amazing?.. It Is!
Looks Simple?.. It Is!

Page 23 of 30
Golf Example 2 Another Win-Win Trade

Looking at the first screenshot we have another 4 Ball Match Up from the
Seve Trophy.

There is a lot of money available on McGinley/Harrington to back at 1.66 just
before Tee-Off, so we have 300 at 1.66.

Page 24 of 30
Now look at the next screenshot after the second hole. Which by the way
McGinley/Harrington won putting them 2 Up in the match.

Now we can lay McGinley/Harrington at 1.3, 0.36 less that what we backed
them at.
We could lay them for 300 at 1.3. This would mean we have completely
protected our stake. If McGinley/Harrington end up losing we break even. If
they end up winning we make 108. Basically we have a free 300 at 0.36.
A Risk Free Bet.

Or we could lay them for 383.08 at 1.3. This would mean we win 83.08
regardless of the result. If they win we make 83.08 if the lose we make
83.08.

Let me explain how.

McGinley/Harrington WIN
LAY: 383.08 at 1.3 means you pay out 498 - 383.08 backer's stake, total
liability of 114.92
TOTAL: 198 minus 114.92 = 83.08 profit.

McGinley/Harrington LOSES
LAY: 383.08, so you collect this 383.08 backer's stake
TOTAL: 300 stake lost, 383.08 returned from lay = 83.08 profit.

Looks Amazing?.. It Is!
Page 25 of 30
Looks Simple?.. It Is!

In this case McGinley/Harrington threw away this match and lost by a hole.
But we didn't care! Because we had traded to a Win-Win situation the result
no longer mattered to us. We made 83.03 either way.

The difference with both of the Golf Bets is that with my initial Back I simple took
a stand. I fancy both pairings to get off to a good start so to I Backed them even
though the amount of money suggested they would drift further. However the
reason I did this was that both Matches were just about to start. When an event
starts on Betfair the market turns in play and all of the money waiting to be
matched is cancelled. Therefore I knew that these were the best prices I was
going to get. Events like Golf, Tennis, Rugby provide great opportunities for
Trading In-Running, where you can make many small trades as the event is
happening. But thats a whole other topic. Perhaps with an additional chapter
to follow.

Page 26 of 30
Look And Listen, always!

The sharp trader will always be looking and listening for clues that might lead to
a shift in price. A huge amount of information can be got from TV coverage,
such as Attheraces, The Racing Channel, BBC or CH4. For example, if you are
listening to an interview on AtTheRaces in the morning and a jockey identifies
another of his mounts as his best ride of the day, this may be opportunity to trade
on this or one of his other mounts.

If the hot favourite sheds its jockey on the way up to the starting stalls and bolts a
mile up the course before being caught, this will likely have a negative effect on
its price - so if you see it happen, you can anticipate this and contemplate a
quick trade.

Or perhaps you are watching BBC and you see that Frankie Dettori is just about
to score a double, and the next race is one of his favoured mounts of the day -
this would be a good time to back his horse in the third race, because the
whole world and their mum will, most likely, be putting more money on him for
that next race.

Or you might hear that there has been 15 millimetres of rain overnight and this
wont suit the big race favourites - if you are quick, you can get you lay in and
then back it as the price lengthens.

A great site to see current prices across all the bookmakers is
www.oddschecker.com.

Page 27 of 30

Here you can also see what horses are drifting and what horses are
shortening. Quite often you can also see a situation where a bookmakers
price is out of line to the rest of the market and even where a bookie price is
bigger than the Betfair price. This is a great situation to back with the bookie
and then lay with Betfair, locking in a Safe Stake Trade.

Good Luck, not that you need it any more.

Often people say to me good luck. I once saw some research that showed
that apparently lucky people were actually people who had put themselves in
a situation to be lucky by their preparation.

I believe that people who succeed in gambling as in all walks of life are people
who are willing to learn and put in the preparation to make their own luck.

Hopefully you now have the information to take the luck element out of your
gambling and are prepared to make consistent profit.

Page 28 of 30
Further Sample Tests
Lets take a look at some further examples and see can you spot the potential
trading opportunities.

Test 1
Look the oddschecker prices for the QE2 stakes, the look at the Betfair
market at the same time and see if you can spot a trading possibility.

Page 29 of 30

Test 2

Look at the Betfair Screenshot below and see if you can see the trading
opportunity.

Page 30 of 30
Test Answers

Answer 1

Looking at the oddschecker screenshot we can see that Dubawi can still be
backed with UKBetting at 2/1 (3.0). If we look at Betfair we can see that it can
be Laid at 2.9. We could therefore back at 2/1 with UKBetting and Lay at 2.9
with Betfair for a Safe Stake Trade.

Answer 2

The horse you should have identified is Tungsten Strike. There is 2244 to
Lay and only 971 available to Back. This therefore represents a good
opportunity to back now at 5.3 and Lay the bet off later when the price
shortens. If we look at the screenshot below we can now Lay the bet off at
5.1 for a Safe Stake Trade.

Horse Racing - Betfair

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