DC-AMS NEWSLETTER
W ASHINGTON , DC C HAPTER OF THE A MERICAN M ETEOROLOGICAL S OCIETY
WWW . DC - AMS . ORG
C HAIR ’ S C ORNER
by Jason Samenow
In the last three meetings, we've covered
Mid-Atlantic winter storms (with veteran
forecaster Wes Junker), an Oklahoma tor-
nado outbreak (with author Nancy Mathis)
and hurricanes (with National Hurricane
Center Director Bill Proenza). Quite a
progression.
Each of the meetings looked at different
aspects in the way we get ready for and
cope with these hazards: from the forecast-
ing techniques for winter storms, to the
community of Oklahoma City's response
to a tornado super outbreak to a nation's
preparedness for hurricanes. For each
hazard, it's clear we've made important
advances in dealing with them. Nonethe-
less, challenges remain, including:
1) Obtaining funding for the tools and
technology we need to forecast and gen-
erate environmental information;
2) Improving forecasting techniques;
3) Better communicating uncertainty;
4) Effectively providing decision support
tools and information to partners who can
reach key users and improve societal re-
sponse;
5) Enhancing public understanding.
APRIL 2007
We are making progress in all of these areas
but need to continue learning from the past,
remain open to change and stay committed to
addressing these challenges.
I am very pleased to announce that General
Lawrence Stutzriem, Director of Air Force
Weather will be our May speaker. General
Stutzriem is an outstanding speaker who will
discuss the challenges in providing mission
critical forecast information in the interest of
domestic and international security.
On a final and most important note, I'd like
to call your attention to the ballot for the elec-
tion of 2007-2008 DC-AMS Officers on the
next page. I am very pleased we have two
outstanding candidates for both Chair and
Vice Chair. Please review the personal state-
ments of these candidates and I very strongly
encourage you to cast a vote. Votes will be
accepted through May 18.
Cheers,
Jason Samenow, Chair
Officer Change
Alan Cohn, a climate analyst at the Envi-
ronmental Protection Agency and recent
graduate of the University of Maryland
(MS in Atmospheric Science), has gra-
ciously assumed the role of Recording Sec-
retary. He replaces Camden Walker, who
resigned from the position for personal
reasons. We thank Camden for his service
to the Chapter and welcome Alan.
 Election for 2007-08 DC-AMS Officers: Ballot
You must be a current DC AMS member to vote

Note: You may write-in a candidate for any position.

Candidates for Chairperson (Select one)

Steve Tracton ___

Chris Vaccaro ___

Candidates for Vice Chairperson (Select one)

Joe Bartosik ___

Andrea Bleistein ___

Corresponding Secretary

Kevin Ambrose (unopposed, incumbent) ___

Recording Secretary

Vacant

Treasurer

Vacant

Science Fair Coordinator

John Lasley (unopposed) ___

Your name*:

*Your vote will remain confidential. However, you must identify yourself so we can validate the vote
is from a current member and to ensure multiple ballots are not cast by the same person.

You may email your choices for each position to dc.ams.chapter@gmail.com OR

via hard copy, please mail your ballot to:

D.C. Chapter, American Meteorological Society

P.O. Box 13557
Silver Spring, Maryland, 20911-3557

Votes MUST be received via email or hard copy by May 11.

 Steve Tracton - Chair

I recently retired from U.S. Government employment after 34 years of service. My career began
immediately after receiving a Ph.D. in Meteorology from MIT as an Assistant Professor at the
Naval Postgraduate School (1972-1975). Thereafter, as a specialist in synoptic and dynamic me-
teorology, I was a research scientist for 31 years at the National Centers for Environmental Predic-
tion (NCEP), primarily in the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) and Climate Prediction
Center (CPC). A basic theme of my career at NCEP was assessment of data, analysis, and forecast
systems with emphasis on physical insight, applications to operational analysis and forecast prob-
lems, and realistic appreciation of capabilities and limitations. As such I was a principal bridge
between developers and users of models through, for example, development of “user friendly”
products and extensive outreach through a variety of training and education programs. Perhaps
most notably I have been recognized nationally and internationally as a principal agent and advo-
cate in development, application, and use of operational ensemble prediction systems and strate-
gies, especially in regard to issues revolving around dealing with forecast uncertainty. Most re-
cently (2002-2006) I was a Program Officer for Marine Meteorology at the Office of Naval Re-
search. This position involved strategic planning, setting program directions and goals, establish-
ing priorities, and overseeing the selection and monitoring of external research grants.

A key hallmark of my career was being proactive in developing close interactive/collaborative rela-
tionships (contacts, partnerships) with and amongst individuals and agencies nationally and inter-
nationally at all levels of support and management. The intent and reasonably successful objective
has been to “make things happen” by reaching out to identify common interests and interdepen-
dencies of goals and priorities requisite for individual and mutually beneficial advances in under-
standing and practical applications of relevant science and technology. These attributes and career
experience have been brought to bear extensively in organizing and conducting a variety of formal
and informal meetings, workshops, training sessions, panel discussions on behalf of my employers
and AMS at the national level (also for WMO). I’m truly appreciative and enthusiastic about
having the opportunity as Chair to bring this extensive background and experience, as well as my
personal commitment of time and attention, to advance the raison d’etre of the DC-AMS Chapter:
“promote the development and dissemination of knowledge of the atmosphere and related oceanic
and hydrologic sciences and the advancement of their professional applications”.
 Chris Vaccaro - Chair
Members of the Washington D.C. chapter of the American Meteorological Society are as diverse as the
Washington area and the field of meteorology. Our local chapter is a collage of people from across the
federal government, private sector, academia and the spectrum of weather enthusiasts, including Ham
radio operators and SkyWarn spotters. Our individual roles collectively play a part in advancing the field
of meteorology to achieve the primary goal of protecting property, lives and livelihoods.

Personally, I have focused on achieving a similar diversity in my education with a Masters in Communi-
cations from the University of Oklahoma, a Bachelors from Lyndon State College with a concentration
in Meteorology and Social Science, and an Associates in Physical Science from Long Island’s Nassau
Community College.

This educational foundation has supported a range of career opportunities. I’m currently approaching
my third year at NOAA as a public affairs specialist in Washington — promoting the science, service and
stewardship of NOAA as an agency spokesman and through media relations tools including press re-
leases, national and international news conferences and Web-based content.

Prior to NOAA, I was Assistant Weather Editor at USA Today in McLean, Va., working with
Weather Editor Jack Williams in generating exclusive weather and environment-related news content
for the print, electronic and broadcast units of USA Today. Other professional jobs and internships
include being a forecaster at Metro Weather Services in Valley Stream, N.Y., a student intern at the
National Weather Service forecast office in Upton, N.Y., and an intern weather producer at cable
news station News 12 Long Island.

The Washington D.C. chapter of the AMS is the third local AMS chapter to which I’ve been an active
member. While completing my Bachelors, I was Vice President of the Lyndon State College AMS/
NWA chapter. In this role, I assisted in organizing the 29th annual Northeastern Storm Conference in
Saratoga Springs, N.Y., including securing Bob Sheets, former National Hurricane Center director, as
banquet speaker and hosting a panel discussion on careers in meteorology. I also managed Lyndon’s
participation in the National Collegiate Weather Forecasting Contest hosted by Penn State, and also
guided various club-related functions, including science fairs, fundraisers and organizing chapter
meetings.

Prior to the Lyndon AMS/NWA chapter, I was a member of the New York City/Long Island AMS
chapter, attending meetings across southeast New York State, and was the President of the Nassau
Community College Meteorology Club. As President, I organized meetings, guest speakers and off-
campus trips for club members and I oversaw the club’s budget and worked with student government to
secure desired supplemental funding.

As Chair of the Washington, D.C. chapter of the AMS, I wish to continually showcase our strength,
derived from our diversity, during chapter meetings, internal correspondence and external promotion. It
is important for us to capitalize from our depth and breadth of experience and knowledge in order to
have an increasingly positive influence on each other and our community, especially those budding and
future scientists. Through increasing membership and expanding external awareness of our chapter, we
can acquire additional resources to strive for a larger and more prominent footprint. We must now
continue building our chapter’s momentum, which dedicated members, such as yourselves, and our
prior chapter officers have gained thus far.
 Joe Bartosik - Vice Chair

Hello. My name is Joe Bartosik and I’d like to be the next Vice Chair of your DC-AMS Chapter. I
joined WeatherBug in Germantown, MD in February, 2005, and currently serve as a Senior Meteo-
rologist in their Professional Services division.

I first started my meteorological career in the broadcasting industry, which allowed me to research
and forecast a variety of weather events while working in Lancaster, PA, Abilene, TX, and Syra-
cuse, NY where I earned my AMS Seal of Approval in June, 2001.

Outside of the office, I enjoy spending time talking to school kids about weather and science.
Throughout the school year, I can be found at numerous Career Days and Science Fairs in MD, DC,
and VA as I feel it is an important part of giving back and fostering growth within the scientific
community. I plan to continue doing this in the future, and encourage others to do the same.

I am a 1999 graduate of Millersville University of Pennsylvania with a B.S. degree in Meteorology.

Throughout my four years at Millersville, I was actively a part of Campus Weather Service, becom-
ing a “Lead Forecaster” during my sophomore year. I also stayed active in the student AMS Chap-
ter, serving as Chapter Secretary in my junior year. As a senior, I volunteered at the annual National
AMS Meeting, held in Dallas, Texas, attended the Northeast Storms Conference, in which Paul
Kocin was the Keynote Speaker, and I also was active in helping our chapter host Millersville’s
Second Conference on Isentropic Analysis and Forecasting.

In addition to meteorology, I was very involved in Millersville’s chapter of Phi Sigma Pi National
Honor Fraternity. I had the honor of serving as Corresponding Secretary, Vice President, and Ini-
tiation Advisor during my sophomore, junior, and senior years, respectively.

Beside the leadership roles in the chapter, I enjoyed spending time and fostering relationships with
other chapters throughout the Mid-Atlantic. Similarly, I’d like to get DC-AMS more involved with
other student and local chapters in the area. The joint University of Maryland meeting last fall
showed that this is entirely possible.

Living in the DC area now for a little over two years, I realize that we are so fortunate to have such
vast meteorological resources and talent right here in our own backyard. Because of this, I believe
the DC-AMS should be more active in co-sponsoring local conferences, or even hosting one of its
own, if not in the 2007-08 year, then in following year.

As a new-comer to the DC-AMS chapter, I’ve enjoyed learning about the many aspects relating to
the atmospheric and environmental sciences in both the public and private sectors. As Vice Chair, I
hope to keep this spirit of diversity alive by continuing to host meetings at different venues throughout
the DC area, as well as encouraging members to offer suggestions for, and be a part of, meeting
topics and Speakers in the year ahead.

Thank you, again, for a great 2006-2007, and for your consideration in this election. I hope you’ll
join me in taking DC-AMS to the next level in 2007-2008.
 Andrea Bleistein - Vice Chair

Andrea Bleistein is a graduate of Penn State University with a Bachelor’s in Meteorology. She has
worked for NOAA’s NWS as a weather and river forecaster in the Student Career Experience Pro-
gram (SCEP) and for NESDIS as a satellite controller. She has also spent time working in the private
sector as a consultant for NOAA within the National Ice Center and the Satellite Analysis Branch of
NESDIS and Lockheed Martin’s GOES-R Program Design Risk Reduction team. Currently, Andrea
is now employed at NWS Headquarters supporting the Office of Science and Technology as the
Executive Secretary for the NOAA/NWS Forecast Uncertainty Services Evolution (NFUSE) team.
As Executive Secretary, she is responsible for all of the logistics in planning the meetings, maintaining
the NFUSE website, and also providing input for working documents and procedures. She is also
assisting a team studying High Impact Weather in the DC metro region.

Andrea is a full member of the American Meteorological Society and has been highly involved with
the AMS as a participant, speaker, co-chair, and organizer of the Annual Student Conference Planning
Committees from 2003 through 2006. She is also an alumna of the 2006 AMS Summer Policy Collo-
quium. Andrea is involved with the DC-AMS through attending monthly meetings and judging in the
Northern Virginia Regional Science Fair this past winter.

As a resident of the DC Metro region for three years now, I have become fully aware of the forecast
challenges for this region as well as the many political and economic concerns of its residents in
response to broader topics of climate change and environmental policies.

As Vice-Chair of the DC-AMS Chapter, I am hoping to bring my leadership and teamwork experi-
ence to one of the most recognizable AMS Local Chapters by continuing its momentum in reaching
out to its members and to the local DC metro region. Increasing the membership is a vision that I
believe the Chapter would continue to benefit from, especially by having more young professionals as
active members. Young professionals will bring forth new ideas for chapter meetings and other activi-
ties. Through my experience in planning AMS Student Conferences, the position of Vice-Chair will
allow me to use my networking and people skills in organizing monthly meetings and promoting
weather and climate discussions that are important to the diverse DC-AMS Chapter membership.
Focusing not only on the local issues that our chapter members are concerned with, but also with hot
topics in our science, such as high impact weather, space weather, capturing social sciences within the
meteorological community and how the economy reacts to long range forecasts and outlooks. I will
make sure that our meetings capture the interests of the entire weather enterprise throughout this
term. Increasing public awareness through educational and outreach opportunities is a mission that I
hope to accomplish through working with the Chair, Officers and other members for the DC Metro
community. One way this might be accomplished is through setting up a booth or table at other
influential community events (e.g. NBC Health Expo) that might be sponsored by larger organiza-
tions.

I hope you will consider me for the position of Vice-Chair of the DC-AMS Chapter for the 2007-
2008 term. Thank you for your support.
Spring Snow Photos at the Capitol
April 7, 2007
Photos by Kevin Ambrose

Pink dogwoods with snow,

April 7, 2007.

Photo by Kevin Ambrose

Tulips with snow, April 7, 2007.

Photo by Kevin Ambrose

Dogwoods with snow, April 7, 2007.

Photo by Kevin Ambrose

 DC- AMS Treasure’s Report
April 2007

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER

3/01/07 Beginning Balance: $ 9,537.65 THREE MONTH OUTLOOK

Income:

Memberships via the mail (1 New) $35.00

One T-Shirt Sale (cash) $12.00

Memberships via Paypal (0 new members)

$0.00
Free March Chapter Meeting (24 attendees)
$00.00

Total Income: $47.00

Expenses:
MAY - JULY 2007, TEMPERATURE

February Monthly Bank Services for cancelled

checks $5.00

March Chapter Meeting (snacks, sodas and ice)

$19.95
Mailing Expenses for Science Fair $55.05

PayPal Fees (4 Transactions) $0.00

-Varying percentages for $5(9%), $15(5%),
$25(4%), $35(3.75%)

Total Expenses: $80.00

Income – Expenses: -$33.00

MAY - JULY 2007, PRECIPITATION

Ending Balance (3/31/07): $9,504.65

 The Washington DC Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (DC-AMS) invites you to

U.S. Air Force Weather Operations

General Lawrence A. Stutzriem
Director, Air Force Weather

When: Wednesday, May 23, 2006 - 6:00 PM – 8:30 PM

Where: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Conference room upstairs on the second floor
1200 New York Ave NW, Washington DC 20005
Tel. (202) 326-6500.

RSVP: By Monday, May 21, 2007, to DC-AMS email, dc.ams.chapter@gmail.com or

by calling Michael Fortune at (301) 754-1766.

Sandwiches, chips, a cookie and drinks will be served one hour before the meeting starts.

Cost: Members $8, non-members $10 for food.

Agenda 6:00 PM Sandwiches served

6:45 Meeting opens with DC-AMS Announcements
7:00 Air Force Weather director Stutzreim presents
8:00 Discussion
8:30 Adjourn
General Lawrence A. Stutzriem

Brigadier General Stutzriem is the Director of Weather, U.S. Air Force headquarters. As
functional manager for the Air Force weather field, he is responsible for the development of
doctrine, policy, and standards for weather support to the Air Force, the Army, unified com-
mands and the national intelligence community.

General Stutzriem was commissioned in 1978 through the Air Force ROTC program at
Arizona State University, where he graduated with a degree in civil engineering. He com-
pleted undergraduate pilot training at Vance Air Force Base, Oklahoma. He has commanded
at the squadron, group and wing levels. In 1995 and 1996 Stutzriem received two Master’s
degrees, one in aviation management from Embry-Riddle University, and the other in na-
tional security strategy from the National War College, at Fort McNair, Washington DC. In
June 2001 the general served as Director of Operations, of the Joint Task Force - South-
west Asia, and Deputy Director of the Combined Air Operations Center. Prior to his current
assignment, he was the U.S. Department of State senior military representative, and Direc-
tor, Office of International Security Operations, in Washington, D.C. He stepped up to lead
Air Force Weather in June of last year.

The general is a command pilot with more than 2,200 flying hours in F-16, A-10, F-4 and Air
Force training aircraft.

Directions:

By Metro to the Metro Center and to AAAS:

Take the Red Line, the Orange Line, or the Blue Line to the Metro Center station. Exit the
station from the north entrance, for 12th Street north. Walk north from G street towards H street, for
onw block. Look for the entrance to the AAAS on the left side of 12th Street.
After 6:00 pm, enter the AAAS using the entrance on 12th Street at H St, where there is
a security guard.

To Washington DC by car: In downtown Washington, find New York Ave NW, which proceeds to
the east from the White House. Drive to the corner of 12th Street and New York Ave. NW. Street
parking is available after 6:30pm. After 6:00 pm, enter the AAAS using the entrance on 12th
Street, where there is a security guard.

See: http://www.aaas.org/contact.shtml for more information

For more information about chapter activities, see the DC-AMS web site at:
http://www.dc-ams.org
 D.C. Chapter
of the
American Meteorological Society

March 2007 meeting with Nancy Mathis, author of Storm Warning

Alan Cohn
The March 19, 2007 meeting of the DC-AMS was called to order at 7:10 p.m. at the offices of
the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Jason Samenow began the meeting by
introducing Peg Kay, President of the Washington Academy of Sciences. Ms. Kay encouraged DC-
AMS members to join the Washington Academy of Sciences. She also promoted the Academy’s peer-
reviewed journal.

Dennis McCarthy of the National Weather Service (NWS) spoke next about communicating
forecast uncertainty. NWS commissioned the National Research Council to look at NWS performance
in this area. The results of the study have prompted NWS to seek new ways to communicate uncer-
tainty—in particular, they are investigating how to inform decision-making for people who deal with the
safety of the public.

Mr. Samenow followed with an announcement that there will be a $2000 scholarship available to
a graduating high school senior who is planning on majoring in meteorology. This amount has doubled
from last year, thanks to a donation from Weather Talk Radio, which airs from 3-4 p.m. on Sundays on
680AM. More information about the scholarship can be found on the DC-AMS website.

Prince George’s, Frederick, and Baltimore Counties have science fairs coming up for which
volunteers are needed. To volunteer, please contact Nancy Lee. Twenty to forty science fair winners
will attend a banquet in June, featuring Tony Pann and Justin Berk from Weather Talk Radio as speakers.
Donations are needed to cover the cost of meals. Whereas last year donations from members covered
the costs of all the students’ meals, this year DC-AMS would like to be able to cover both the students’
and the parents’ meals.

Five out of the six current DC-AMS officers will not be seeking re-election. Anyone interested
in becoming an officer should speak with Mr. Samenow. A prospective officers meeting will be held in
the next few weeks.

Michael Fortune announced that the March newsletter is now available, and includes a descrip-
tion of Storm Warning, by tonight’s speaker, Nancy Mathis. In addition, the new issue of Mr. Fortune’s
own newsletter, Climate Science Forum, is also available.

Upcoming meetings will be held on April 11 and May 23. The April 11 meeting will feature Bill
Proenza, the current director of the National Hurricane center, and will be held at the new Rockville
Library.

Nancy Mathis, the featured speaker, was introduced by Mr. Fortune to describe her new book,
Storm Warning: The Story of a Killer Tornado. The book highlights the May 3, 1999 tornado outbreak
that generated recorded winds of over 300 miles per hour and devastated parts of Oklahoma and Kan-
sas, including the Oklahoma City area. The storm was well-forecasted and a communications success,
resulting in many fewer deaths than emergency responders had anticipated.
 (March meeting notes - continued)

Ms. Mathis begins her book with an account of two storm-chasers pursuing the Oklahoma
tornadoes, and through dialogue and detailed description, she tells the story of that violent day. The
book also focuses on the history leading up to the day, tracing back to the first tornado forecasters, the
story of a 1947 tornado outbreak in Woodward, Oklahoma, and the life of pioneer scientist Ted Fujita.

In her presentation, Ms. Mathis discussed the evolution of severe weather forecasting and com-
munication, and described the dueling roles of the private and public sectors. In the 1970s and 1980s,
some TV stations had better meteorological equipment than the NWS. The chief meteorologist in
Oklahoma City, Gary England, was the first to use Doppler radar, and would routinely issue his own
storm warnings. TV, however, was not sufficient to alert emergency responders to impending danger,
and the development of the Oklahoma Mesonet has helped them save countless lives. On the day of
May 3, 1999, the Mesonet provided invaluable information.

Ms. Mathis showed the audience radar and satellite images, and pictures of the tornadoes and
resulting destruction from the May 3 tornadoes. One of the pictures showed an elementary school that
was completely destroyed. The timing of the storm was in fact lucky, considering students had gone
home for the day. It prompted schools, as well as local government and individuals, to re-think tornado
preparedness and safety.

All in all, the tornado outbreak of May 3, 1999 was a forecasting and communications success.
The Storm Center in Norman had simulated an F5 tornado ripping through Oklahoma City a few weeks
prior to the storm. On the Friday before the outbreak, meteorologists were planning for a severe
weather day on Sunday, so when the storms struck they were adequately staffed. As the storms ap-
proached towns and highways, NWS meteorologists worked with TV broadcasters to warn the public
and save lives.

Storm Warning is available at most major book retailers—Ms. Mathis recommends Barnes and
Noble as the best source. Also look for an excerpt from her book appearing in the April edition of
Reader’s Digest.

The March meeting of the DC-AMS concluded at 8:30 pm.

 D.C. Chapter
of the
American Meteorological Society

April 2007 meeting with Bill Proenza, Director of the National Hurricane Center

Alan Cohn

The April 11, 2007 meeting of the DC-AMS was called to order at 6:50 p.m. at the new Rockville
Library in Rockville, Maryland. Before introducing the featured speaker, Jason Samenow made an-
nouncements regarding the upcoming DC-AMS election, the May meeting, the science fair banquet, and
the scholarship available to a graduating high school senior. The election will feature two competitive
races, for Chair and Vice-Chair; information will be sent to DC-AMS members via email. The next
meeting of the DC-AMS will be held at the offices of the American Association for the Advancement of
Science on May 23, and will feature Brigadier General Lawrence Stutzriem, Director of U.S. Air Force
Weather. Mr. Samenow reminded DC-AMS members of the science fair banquet in June, and the $2000
scholarship for which students can currently apply.

Next, Michael Fortune introduced National Hurricane Center Director, Bill Proenza. Mr. Proenza
was a former officer of the DC-AMS in the early 1970s, at about the time he started his career with the
National Weather Service. From 1998 to 2007, he was the Director of the National Weather Service
Southern Region. He assumed his position with the National Hurricane Center in January 2007.

Mr. Proenza began his presentation with an emphasis on the challenges of warning and predict-
ing storms, and the insufficient funding that is currently available to the National Hurricane Center. He
showed the audience a map of hurricane tracks along the East Coast from 1851 to 2005, which demon-
strated that few areas in the region have been spared. The number of major Atlantic hurricanes has been
trending upward since the mid 1990s—tropical cyclones alone have constituted nearly 40 percent of
costly weather disasters in this period. Fifty-three percent of the American population lives within 50
miles of the coastline, and this number grows by 7 million people each year. This new influx of coastal
residents means that many people have not lived near the ocean long enough to have experienced a
tropical storm or hurricane.

Whether or not the storm outlook is below average, residents should be prepared for a disaster.
As an example, Mr. Proenza discussed Hurricane Andrew, the first named storm of the 1992 hurricane
season, which did not occur until August of that year. He also emphasized that tropical storms have the
potential to incur severe damage. In 2001, Hurricane Allison hit Houston, Texas, causing extensive
flooding and claiming lives.

Mr. Proenza showed a map of the regions covered by the National Weather Service’s 122 Weather
Forecast Offices and 13 River Forecast Centers. This model was used when designing the hurricane
warning center. They work together during storms, with the local offices issuing warnings and calculat-
ing the local storm surge. In 2004, a local forecast office picked up Hurricane Charlie’s slight turn to the
right on their local radar and immediately informed the Hurricane Center of the shift.
 (April meeting notes - continued)

The 2006 hurricane season was unusually quiet, with only 5 hurricanes despite sea surface
temperatures that were the second warmest since the 1930s. Alberto and Ernesto were the biggest
storms, Ernesto causing most of the damage and the only casualties of the season. The track guidance
for Ernesto showed it going into the Gulf of Mexico even until some of the final model runs just before
it turned to the north and tracked over Florida. Mr. Proenza used this instance to demonstrate the
importance of human forecasting. Other storms that formed in the Atlantic stayed out to sea and
curved toward Europe, with the remnants of some storms even impacting parts of Spain, Portugal, and
the British Isles. The last storm was in October 2006, marking one of the earliest closures of a
hurricane season on record.

For storms at sea, the QuickScat satellite gives wind vectors which are crucial for forecasting
intensity changes. The satellite, which is currently used for warnings, forecasts, and models, has no
scheduled replacement. As it enters its 8th year of operation, it has already exceeded its expected
lifetime of 3 to 5 years. Although track forecasting is getting better, the loss of the QuickScat satellite
with no planned replacement impedes improvement.

Mr. Proenza concluded his presentation with a brief discussion of the role of El Niño in the past
hurricane season, and the possibility of a more active 2007 hurricane season now that El Niño has
dissipated. The official NOAA/NWS outlook will come out May 22nd.

Questions and answers that followed the presentation further discussed the challenges of se-
curing funding through Congress, Mr. Proenza’s childhood mentorship from the first director of the
National Hurricane Center, and his concerns for future disasters. Amongst these concerns is a hurri-
cane like the 1935 Labor Day storm that hit the Florida Keys, in which a tropical storm intensified into
one of the most intense hurricanes of the 20th century in less than 48 hours. In addition to the Florida
Keys, many areas along the Atlantic coast could experience devastation if a storm strikes. Mr. Proenza
listed Jacksonville and Tampa/St. Petersburg, Florida, as well as the Northeast metropolitan area as
places that have not experienced a significant storm recently and may be vulnerable in the future.

Mr. Proenza’s PowerPoint presentation is available on www.hurricanes.gov under “Message

from the Director.”

The April meeting of the DC-AMS concluded at 8:10 pm.

Cherry Blossom Photos of the Jefferson Memorial
April 3, 2007
Photos by Kevin Ambrose

Blossoms frame the Jefferson Memorial and Tidal Basin,

April 3, 2007.

Sunset at the Jefferson Memorial,

April 3, 2007.
 Science Fair Volunteers Needed
Nancy Lee

A major role of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and this chapter (DC-
AMS) is developing this nation's youth through science fairs, scholarships, and
mentoring.

Howard County, MD February 24 Judged

Calvert County, MD February 24 Not Judged
Anne Arundel County, MD March 3 Judged
Piedmont Regional, VA March 8 Judged
Loudoun County, VA March 15 Judged
Prince William County, VA March 17 Not Judged
Arlington County, VA March 17 Judged
Washington D.C. March 17 Judged
Montgomery County, MD March 17 Judged
Fairfax County, VA March 17 Judged
Frederick County, MD March 24 Judged
Prince Georges, MD March 24 Judged
Baltimore County, MD March 24 Judged

The science fair season continues through May. Volunteers are needed for the follow-
ing fair this year:

Kids for Science, PG County, MD May 19 Need Judges

Please contact Nancy Lee for information at 301-713-1833x172 or

nancy.lee@noaa.gov