What Should my Capacity Plan Contain?

Danny Quilton, COO,

Capacitas
Synopsis
Many organisations are now adopting Capacity Management
processes. The key deliverable of the Capacity Management
process is the capacity plan. For those new to Capacity
Management, the question often posed is What
information should my capacity plan contain? This
presentation offers practical assistance to those looking to
deliver a Capacity Plan using real world examples from
numerous client engagements. The challenges associated
with delivering a capacity plan and inertia around capacity
plan findings are discussed. Guidance is also provided on
the frequency of capacity plan releases and effective
communication methods for delivering the key messages of
the plan to senior management.
Agenda
ITIL v3 definition
Capacity plan contents Capacitass guidance
Conveying the messages of the capacity plan
Capacity plan frequency
Summary
ITIL v3 Capacity Management
Objective
The prime objective is to produce a plan that
documents the current levels of resource utilisation
and service performance, and after consideration
of the business strategy and plans, forecasts the
future requirements for resource to support IT
services that underpin business activities. The plan
should indicate clearly any assumptions made. It
should also include any recommendations
quantified in terms of resource required, cost,
benefits, impact etc.
ITIL Best Practice for Service Delivery
Contents of a Capacity Plan
Scope
Its critical to clearly define the scope
Business Capacity Management
Business Demand Forecast
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Delivery Date
Business Demand Forecast for easyJet.com
GB Airways acquisition
Business Demand Forecast
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1,000,000
1,200,000
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Forecast Business Demand; Internet Banking Service
Historical Registered Users Forecast Registered Users
Service Capacity Management
Service Demand Forecast
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Forecast Service Demand for an e-commerce Service
Actual Daily Purchases Forecast Daily Purchases
Service Performance for an e-
Commerce Service
Component Capacity
Management
An assessment of the past
Capacity plan is forward looking so avoid
making this section too detailed
Component Capacity
Management
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(
%
)
Peak Hour Database Server Utilisation; October 2008 -
December 2009
Max CPU Utilisation (%)
Capacity Plan Scenarios
Recommendations
Clear recommendations on the capacity required
to meet service levels
Recommendations under different business/technical
scenarios
Assign owners to recommendations after the
capacity plan review meeting
Assign target completion dates
Costs
Cross-charging between IT services that use shared
technical infrastructure
Operating costs
Capital costs
Relate business demand to cost
Costs
Plan vs. Actual
Two aspects here:
The accuracy of the demand forecast
The accuracy of the capacity and performance
model
Plan vs. Actual; Demand Forecast
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
P
u
r
c
h
a
s
e
s
Forecast Service Demand vs. Actual Service Demand
Actual Bookings (Peak Hour) Forecast Bookings (Peak hour)
Plan vs. Actual; Demand Forecast
The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is
12% here:
-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Forecast Error
Plan vs. Actual; Capacity Model
For a given level of observed production demand
Compare actual capacity utilisation against
modelled (predicted) capacity utilisation
Same approach for:
Response time
Throughput
Plan vs. Actual; Capacity Model
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Actual Server CPU Load 12% 10% 14% 12% 12% 13% 16% 22% 25% 27% 28% 28% 28% 27% 29% 29% 28% 28% 29% 33% 33% 27% 18%
Predicted CPU Load 12% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 14% 18% 23% 25% 27% 27% 26% 26% 27% 26% 27% 27% 26% 28% 30% 28% 22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Comparison of Actual and Predicted CPU Load
Options for Service Improvement
Capacity manager has a holistic view of the service
Thus well placed to identify improvements
Examples from client engagements:
Application tuning to reduce capacity requirements
Improve third party performance to improve overall
service performance
Appendices
Demand forecast methodology
Capacity and performance modelling methodology
Analytical
Simulation modelling approach
Methodology for plan vs. actual
Tackling Inertia
It is vital that a face to face meeting is held with
stakeholders to explain key points of the plan and
agree action points
Track status of previous Capacity Plan
recommendations in an Action Log
Conveying the Message
In our experience Capacity Plans for complex IT
services can be up to 60 pages long
The target audience of the capacity plan is varied
The plan in document format provides a detailed
record
A presentation of a few slides should be used to
communicate to key stakeholders:
Senior IT management
Service owners
Finance
Conveying the Message
Example capacity plan summary for an online
retailer:
Scenario name S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9 S10
Peak Period Peak
hour
Dec
2011
Peak
hour
Dec
2011
Peak
hour
Dec
2011
Peak
hour
Dec
2012
Peak
hour
Dec
2013
Peak
hour
Dec
2011
Peak
Hour
Dec
2011
Peak
Hour
Dec
2011
The
capacity
of the
service
The
capacity
of the
service
Data centre failure scenario?
Outstanding optimisations of the
application

Migration of all partners to the B2B
service

Business disruption scenario
Step change in demand
Capacity of the service (number of
purchases)
185,000 241,000
Conveying the Message
State what the capacity of the service in units of
business demand
Industry IT Service Business demand unit
Airline Flight scheduling system Number of aircraft
Retail Stock management
system
Number of stores
Mobile phone
operator
Billing system Number of subscribers
Finance Real-time stock market
trading system
Number of trades
Government Benefits payment
system
Number of benefits
recipients
Retail E-commerce Number of sales
Frequency of Capacity Plan
The production and update of a Capacity Plan should
occur at pre-defined intervals. It is essentially an
investment plan and should therefore be published
annually, in line with the business or budget lifecycle,
and completed before the start of negotiations on
future budgets. A quarterly re-issue of updated plan
may be necessary to take into account changes in
business plans, to report on the accuracy of forecasts
and to make or refine recommendations.
ITIL Best Practice for Service Delivery
Frequency in Different Problem
Domains
Different services require different frequencies
Some examples from client engagements:
Problem Domain Characteristics Capacity Plan
Frequency
Start-up network
services provider
Rapid growth
Frequent technological change
Unreliable business demand
forecasts
Monthly
Retail bank, customer
account management
Steady growth
Mature service
Annual
e-commerce service Rapid growth Quarterly
Summary
Capacity plan is the chief deliverable of the
Capacity Management process
Should be forward looking rather than
retrospective
We have addressed the essential contents of any
capacity plan
Capacity plan frequency should be driven by the
characteristics of the business
Important to the convey the message using
capacity plan summaries