ASSESSORIA DE IMPRENSA DO GABINETE

Seleo Diria de Notcias Internacionais

Quarta-feira, 31 de outubro de 2012
ESTADOS UNIDOS 3
Te !asin"ton #ost $%&'( ) Stor* +ro,ides -ba*a .it a co**ander-in-cief *o*ent $/a+a( 3
Te Ne. 0or1 Ti*es $%&'( ) -ba*a +ro*ises s+eed2 aid as stor* ta1es on added +olitical .ei"t 3
4e 5onde $6rana( - Nous, les +eu+les des %tats-&nis 7
6inancial Ti*es $8eino &nido( - 8o*ne2 .ould be a bac1.ard ste+ $/oluna 9 5artin !olf( :
4e ;uffin"ton #ost $6rana( ) 4es <lections a*<ricaines ,ues de+uis /uba 11
SRIA 13
Te Ne. 0or1 Ti*es $%&'( ) S2rian 'ir 6orce /o**ander Is 8e+orted =illed 13
6inancial Ti*es $8eino &nido( - 8ebels and =urds clas in 'le++o 1>
4e 5onde $6rana( ) S2rie ? le *<diateur @rai*i a++elle la /ine A Bouer un CrDle actifC 13
4e 5onde $6rana( - 4a S2rie dans la "uerre ci,ile ? anato*ie dEun +a2s en *orceauF 17
AMRICA LATINA E CARIBE 18
%l #as $%s+ana( - G@rasil 2 5<Fico tienen una "ran istoria +or escribir BuntosH $@lo" Iientos de @rasil(
1J
6inancial Ti*es $8eino &nido( - 8isin" star raises 'r"entine ac1les 1:
4a NaciKn $'r"entina( ) Dudan de la ca+acidad de +a"o de la 'r"entina 20
%l #as $%s+ana( - %l +residente de IeneLuela no*bra nue,o *inistro de Defensa 22
%l &ni,ersal $IeneLuela( ) /onfan Mue /,eL dar libertad a +resos +olticos 22
@@/ $8eino &nido( ) /ile secret a"ents car"ed o,er 1:N7 di+lo*at *urder 23
4e 5onde $6rana( ) 4Eoura"an Sand2 +r<ci+ite ;aOti dans la d<tresse sanitaire et ali*entaire 23
ARGENTINA IR 26
@@/ $8eino &nido( ) 'r"entina e Irn co*+letan +ri*eras con,ersaciones +or atentado de 1::> 27
/larn $'r"entina( ) %n *edio de la ne"ociaciKn, Irn insiste en Mue no tu,o nada Mue ,er 2N
MERCOSUL / UNASUL 28
'@/ /olor $#ara"uai( ) 'bo"an +or un r+ido retorno 2J
'@/ /olor $#ara"uai( ) &nasur, en co*+onenda con 4u"o, busca desle"iti*ar las elecciones 2J
Plti*a ;ora $#ara"uai( ) @loMue 8e"ional analiLa o2 el en,o de *isiKn 2:
%ntorno Inteli"ente $IeneLuela( ) I%N%Q&%4'? 6oro @inacional @rasilRIeneLuela sobre el 5ercosur
fortalece relaciones +olticas 30
%l Nacional $IeneLuela( ) Sai*e "arantiLa cu*+li*iento de acuerdos *i"ratorios con +ases del
5ercosur 30
FRICA E ORIENTE MDIO 31
Te Ti*es $8eino &nido( - !e a,e Iran and S2ria in our si"ts, sa2s Israel 31
Te Ne. 0or1 Ti*es $%&'( ) Israeli Defense /ief Sa2s Iran #ost+oned Nuclear '*bitions 32
Te !asin"ton #ost $%&'( ) Israel rec1ons .it unra,elin" SaLa +olic2 32
4e 5onde $6rana( - 4E&% +rise en faute sur ses liens a,ec les colonies isra<liennes 3>
4e 5onde $6rana( ) N<tan2aou A #aris +arlera de lEIran et d<noncera a,ec ;ollande lEantis<*itis*e37
6inancial Ti*es $8eino &nido( - Sudan reBects Israeli ar*s clai*s 37
Te Ne. 0or1 Ti*es $%&'( ) /itin" Iiolence, @arain @ans 'll #rotests in Ne. /rac1do.n 3N
Te Ne. 0or1 Ti*es $%&'( ) ' #us b2 #alestinians for &TNT Status /ontinues 3J
SIA 38
6inancial Ti*es $8eino &nido( - /ina raises sta1es o,er dis+uted islands 3J
1
Te Ne. 0or1 Ti*es $%&'( ) %F-%n,o2 Sa2s &TST Stirs /ina-Ua+an Tensions >0
4e 5onde $6rana( - 4a /ine est +ro+ri<taire des Vles Diao2u et non le Ua+on $-+inio( >2
EUROPA 43
8euters $8eino &nido( - %& .ill lose Tur1e2 if it asnEt Boined b2 2023? %rdo"an >3
4e 5onde $6rana( ) /linton +ousse la @osnie ,ers lE&% et d<nonce le s<+aratis*e >>
TEMAS ECONMICOS E COMERCIAIS 44
6inancial Ti*es $8eino &nido( - #e*eF9#etrobas? a tale of t.o state oil co*+anies >>
@loo*ber" $%&'( ) @raLil Seen @eatin" &TST in So2bean Trade as /ina @u2s >3
#roBect S2ndicate $%&'( - @raLilHs Sro.t /onundru* >7
4e 5onde $6rana( - 4a +roduction *ondiale de ,in baisserait de 7 W en 2012 >J
TEMAS INTERNOS !
6inancial Ti*es $8eino &nido( - @raLil "ri++ed b2 anti-corru+tion battle 30
Te !asin"ton #ost $%&'( ) @raLil debates o. to di,,2 u+ oil .ealt, +ittin" a,es a"ainst a,e-nots
32
Uornal de Notcias $#ortu"al( - Uustia sus+ende li*inar Mue deter*ina,a sada de ndios de faLenda e*
I"uate*i 32
2
ESTADOS UNIDOS
The Washington Post (EUA) Storm provides Obama with a
commander-in-chief moment (Capa)
By David Nakamura and Karen Tumulty,
For a day at least, Hurricane Sandy appears to have done for President Obama what he has
not been able to do for himself.
In a campaign notable mostly for its negativity, the historic storm provided Obama with a
commander-in-chief moment a week before Election Day. The president gained a rare
moment of bipartisan praise, with Democratic and Republican governors alike commending
the performance of the federal government. And the storm put on pause, for now, the
sense that rival Mitt Romney had all the momentum in the home stretch.
On Wednesday, Obama will travel to New Jersey to tour damaged areas with Republican
Gov. Chris Christie, a regular critic of the president who heaped praise on him in the
aftermath of the storm, saying that "the president has been all over this and he deserves
great credit.
The collaboration between Christie and Obama provided a stark contrast from Hurricane
Katrina in 2005, when President George W. Bushs administration and that of Louisiana
Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D) engaged in a bitter round of finger-pointing over the botched
handling of the disaster.
The storm thrust Romney in the almost impossible position of trying to write a role for
himself in the story that has gripped the nations attention. The GOP nominee held a relief
event in Ohio to collect donations for storm victims, but the event had the trappings of a
regular campaign rally, with the candidates standard theme music and biographical video.
As Romney packed emergency supplies, he did not respond to reporters who asked
whether he is reconsidering his earlier assertion that disaster management is a job that
should be turned over to the states.
Obamas performance could be viewed quite differently as federal relief efforts continue to
play out. Whatever problems arise will largely be Obamas to bear, just as Bush was
blamed for Katrina.
"The storm is not over yet, Obama cautioned during a Tuesday afternoon visit to the
headquarters of the Red Cross in Washington. "Were going to continue to push as hard as
we can to provide resources, he added, before emphasizing that his message to his
administration is "no bureaucracy, no red tape.
The storm also calls attention to a dynamic that all incumbents face: how to balance being
president while running for reelection. Rarely, if ever, has a president had to deal with such
a major disaster so close to Election Day, and any misstep or move that appears politically
motivated could cost Obama with voters.
For now, the presidents Chicago-based reelection team is exhibiting no urgency to return
him to the campaign trail. The campaign canceled two rallies in Ohio on Wednesday, and
one aide said Obamas schedule is being determined by the president, along with White
House advisers such as David Plouffe and Chief of Staff Jacob Lew.
This aide, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to talk frankly about internal strategy,
suggested that at this point, the rallies are marginally helpful in getting supporters to vote,
but that otherwise "the race is set.
3
In the meantime, Obama campaign manager Jim Messina sent e-mails to supporters in -
storm-affected states asking that they donate to the Red Cross.
Matthew Dowd, a top aide for Bushs 2004 reelection effort, said Obama has used the
power of his incumbency and "done just exactly what he needs to do.
"The longer they can have him being the president and not a candidate, the better for
them, Dowd said.
On Tuesday morning, Obama convened a videoconference from the Situation Room with
Vice President Biden, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, Federal Emergency
Management Administrator W. Craig Fugate and a dozen other top advisers.
According to one White House aide, he told them: "I want everyone leaning forward on
this. I dont want to hear that we didnt do something because bureaucracy got in the
way.
He reiterated the message in a midday conference call with governors and mayors from 13
affected states and the District. Obama said that they "can call the White House directly
themselves if they encounter any bureaucratic red tape, according to D.C. Mayor Vincent
C. Gray (D). On a more personal note, Gray said, Obama told them that he was looking out
his window and "I see theres a mess out there, but all of my people are at work.
Later in the day, Obama held another conference call, this one with utility executives, to
underscore the urgency of restoring electricity to the millions who lost power along the
East Coast, the White House said.
Maryland Gov. Martin OMalley (D), a vocal surrogate for Obama, said the White House has
been proactive. He received a call from Napolitano offering assistance and inquiring about
the states needs. And OMalley traded e-mails with David Agnew, Obamas head of
intergovernmental affairs, and the point person for governors at the White House.
By Sunday, FEMA officials were embedded in states emergency operations centers. They
sat near representatives from the Red Cross, getting minute-by-minute updates as the
storm wobbled toward the Eastern Seaboard.
"Under this administration, FEMA has been a much more professional agency, OMalley
said. "Gone are the days of `heck of a job, Brownie, when they show up after the disaster
hits and help you bail water, OMalley said, referring to Bushs initial praise for FEMA
Director Michael D. Browns handling of the federal response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
Brown later resigned.
In an interview with a Denver radio station on Monday, Brown suggested that Obama was
playing politics with the storm by responding so urgently so no one could second-guess
him. The former FEMA director compared the reaction to Obamas decision to go to Las
Vegas for a fundraiser the day after the attacks that killed Ambassador J. Christopher
Stevens and three other Americans at a U.S. diplomatic outpost in Libya.
"Why did he jump on this so quickly and go back to D.C. so quickly when in . . . [the]
Benghazi [situation], he went to Las Vegas? Brown asked.
But several high-ranking Republicans lauded the White Houses performance. Christie was
the most vocal, saying at a news conference that the presidents response had been
"outstanding and that working with the administration had been "wonderful.
4
Virginia Gov. Robert F. McDonnell, chair of the Republican Governors Association and a
leading Romney surrogate, said the federal response was "incredibly fast and were very
grateful.
McDonnell described Obama as "direct and personal in his approach to the disaster,
adding that during natural disasters, "partisanship goes out the window.
"The elections going to come, but it says a lot about the president, and it makes me feel
good to be an American that people have had the right focus, McDonnell added.
Aaron C. Davis, Errin Haines, Greg Jaffe and Nikita Stewart contributed to this report.
The New York Times (EUA) Obama promises speedy aid as
storm takes on added political weight
By MARK LANDLER
WASHINGTON - When President Obama dropped in to give a pep talk to workers at the
American Red Cross here on Tuesday afternoon, it seemed like a standard ritual for a
leader confronting a natural disaster. But in the final week of a presidential campaign that
has been scrambled by an epic storm, nothing can be divorced from politics.
Mr. Obama, eager to project the image of a president responding forcefully to the crisis,
promised the storms victims in New Jersey, New York and elsewhere that federal help was
on the way. And he warned the rank and file in federal agencies that they had better not
get in the way of that effort.
"My message to the federal government: no bureaucracy, no red tape, said Mr. Obama,
flanked by Red Cross employees. "Get resources where theyre needed as fast as possible.
Referring to a call he held earlier with 20 governors and mayors, Mr. Obama said he told
them, "If theyre getting `no for an answer somewhere in the federal government, they can
call me personally at the White House.
For a president locked in a razor-thin battle for re-election, the storm has presented a
moment - both promising and perilous - to rise above the partisan fray and shift the tone
of a campaign that had settled into a grinding slog to Election Day.
Mr. Obama could yet suffer President George W. Bushs fate after the governments slow
response to Hurricane Katrina, a lapse that contributed to steep Republican losses in the
2006 midterm elections. With Katrina indelibly stamped on peoples memories, the
historian Michael Beschloss said, "the obvious downside is that if the executive branch fails
to respond competently, the president will receive large blame.
The president got an unexpected Republican vote of confidence from Gov. Chris Christie of
New Jersey, who lavished praise on Mr. Obama for his responsiveness. He recounted a
midnight phone call, in which the president pledged to cut through paperwork to get New
Jersey declared a major disaster area, freeing up federal assets for the rescue effort.
"The presidents been all over this, Mr. Christie said on MSNBCs "Morning Joe. "He
deserves great credit.
Only eight days ago, Mr. Christie, who gave the keynote address at the Republican National
Convention and was a potential running mate for Mitt Romney, described Mr. Obama as
"blindly walking around the White House looking for a clue. On Wednesday, Mr. Obama
plans to travel to New Jersey, where Mr. Christie will personally show him the devastation.
5
As if to underline the gap between a sitting president and a candidate, Mr. Christie
impatiently dismissed a suggestion by a host on Fox News that he take Mr. Romney on a
similar disaster tour. "I could care less about any of that stuff, he said.
New Yorks mayor, Michael R. Bloomberg, said he politely declined Mr. Obamas offer to
visit the city, though he, too, praised the federal effort.
White House officials could scarcely have anticipated Mr. Christies effusive words. From a
political perspective, they viewed the storm with trepidation - both because it would pull
Mr. Obama off the campaign trail for precious days in the last week, and because natural
disasters tend to punish presidents more often than reward them.
On Sunday evening, with Hurricane Sandy bearing down on the East Coast, Mr. Obama
flew to Florida, hoping to squeeze in one more rally. When the storm accelerated
overnight, his pilots told him at 6 a.m. that they could not fly Air Force One back safely
unless he left immediately, skipping the rally.
Once back at the White House, though, Mr. Obama brought a singular focus to the storm,
his aides said. At a briefing in the Situation Room on Tuesday with cabinet secretaries and
other officials, he summed up what he expected: that everyone "lean forward.
"Our response has to be big, fast and thorough, he said, according to an aide in the room.
"I dont want to see stories of bureaucracy getting in the way. I will have zero tolerance of
anything that looks like were not responding quickly enough.
Lest anyone miss the message of a leader in command, the White House has issued
photographs of his briefings and detailed descriptions of his calls with state and local
officials - a practice the White House has perfected in previous crises, like the earthquake
in Haiti.
White House aides described Mr. Obamas swift approval of the disaster declarations for
New Jersey and New York. After his call with Mr. Christie, the president directed officials at
the Federal Emergency Management Agency to call the governor with questions that would
normally have to be answered in writing. That happened at 2 a.m., and the declaration was
approved by Mr. Obama before sunrise.
With those legal steps out of the way, Mr. Obama held a conference call with executives of
utility companies to prod them to restore power to more than eight million customers.
For a White House consumed for months by campaigning, the challenge of coping with a
natural disaster is almost a relief to some aides. And Mr. Obama, who spent the days
before the storm needling his opponent for his "Romnesia, seems to have found a bigger
voice.
Speaking at the Red Cross, Mr. Obama recalled stories of nurses removing patients from a
darkened New York hospital, firefighters wading into waist-deep water in Queens and a
Coast Guard ship off North Carolina, sending a swimmer out to rescue people from a
sinking ship. "During the darkness of the storm, he said, "I think we also saw whats
brightest in America.
Le Monde (Frana) - Nous, les peuples des Etats-Unis
JAMES BRANAMAN POUR " LE MONDE "
Tampa et Gulfport (Floride) Envoy spcial
Les deux Amrique (1) La socit amricaine a progress de faon spectaculaire sur le
sujet des unions mixtes. Mais les candidatures de Barack !ama et de Mitt "omne#
refl$tent aussi la polarisation du pa#s sur la question identitaire
6
Lorsque Sara Behnke a prsent il y a quelques annes son fianc, Yoedy Gonzalez, sa
grand-mre, celle-ci, ge de 82 ans, l'a prise part. " As-tu pens ce que vont souffrir
vos enfants ? ", lui a-t-elle gliss d'un air catastroph. " Moi, cela ne m'avait pas travers
l'esprit !, assure cette jeune femme greffire, ne en Floride. Je lui ai rpondu que le
monde avait chang, que l'Amrique d'Obama serait un bel endroit pour nos enfants. "
Le petit Oliver vient de fter ses 6 mois. S'il tait n dans les annes 1960 voire 1970, sa
naissance, d'une mre blanche et d'un pre noir, aurait t sans doute perue comme une
anomalie, voire une calamit. Aujourd'hui, son arrire-grand-mre a chang d'avis. Parce
qu'il est videmment le plus beau bb du monde, mais aussi, assure la maman, parce que
l'lection de 2008 a modifi la perception des mlanges raciaux. " Le fait qu'Obama ait t
accept par l'Amrique a chang la vision qu'elle a de ma relation avec Yoedy. "
Sara Behnke est particulirement sensible tout ce qui, dans la campagne prsidentielle,
tempre son optimisme sur l'tat des " relations raciales " dans l'Amrique d'Obama. Elle a
entendu Mitt Romney insinuer que le prsident n'tait pas aussi amricain que lui ; elle sait
que les attaques contre les bnficiaires de prestations sociales visent de faon subliminale
les Noirs ; elle a appris, effare, que des militants rpublicains avaient lanc des
cacahutes une cameraman noire de CNN en pleine convention de leur parti, en aot
Tampa. Au tribunal o elle travaille, elle entend les protestations des justiciables noirs qui
estiment " injuste " d'tre jugs par la magistrate blanche dont elle est l'assistante. Et elle
connat de prs les ambiguts de la " barrire de la couleur ", puisque son compagnon, n
en Rpublique dominicaine, est peru par les Noirs-Amricains comme un frre de
couleur... jusqu'au moment o ils entendent son accent hispanique.
La prsence de Barack Obama la Maison Blanche, insiste-t-elle, tend normaliser, voire
banaliser l'existence des couples comme le sien, que l'on nomme " mixtes " en France et "
interraciaux " aux Etats-Unis. " Si Romney est lu, les personnes comme moi ne se
sentiront plus aussi l'aise. Ce serait la victoire de gens qui voient un illgal derrire
chaque immigr et dtestent des couples comme le ntre ", dit Sara Behnke pour signifier
quel point le vote du 6 novembre lui parat crucial. " Ce pays reste terriblement divis sur
la question raciale. Nous sommes sur le fil du rasoir. Soit nous faisons machine arrire en
renforant une barrire raciale qui n'a jamais disparu, soit nous continuons aller de
l'avant en la dmantelant progressivement. "
S'il est un domaine o la socit amricaine a progress de faon spectaculaire, c'est bien
celui des unions mixtes. Cette rvolution silencieuse a commenc bien avant Barack
Obama. En 1948, 90 % des Amricains jugeaient inacceptable un mariage entre deux
personnes de " races diffrentes ". Ils taient encore deux sur trois en 1986, mais sont
devenus minoritaires en 1991. En 2009, ils n'taient plus que 17 %. Seuls 6 % des Blancs
et 3 % des Noirs affirment qu'ils rejetteraient un couple noir-blanc dans leur famille, selon
diffrentes tudes. " Au cours des cinquante dernires annes, les mariages mixtes sont
passs du statut de dlit celui de tabou, puis celui de situation simplement inhabituelle,
rsume Paul Taylor, vice-prsident de l'Institut Pew, qui, en fvrier, a publi une vaste
enqute sur le sujet. La physionomie du pays change et les comportements changent en
mme temps. "
Les Etats-Unis reviennent de loin : les lois sanctionnant les " croisements entre races " sont
restes en vigueur dans seize Etats jusqu' ce que la Cour suprme les dclare
inconstitutionnelles en 1967, l'anne de la sortie du film Devine qui vient dner, avec
Sidney Poitier.
Les mariages mixtes ne sont pas seulement devenus " acceptables ", ils sont dsormais
une ralit visible. Leur part dans l'ensemble des unions clbres a doubl depuis les
annes 1980 pour atteindre 15 % en 2010. Au total, 9 % des Blancs, 17 % des Noirs et 26
% des Hispaniques franchissent dsormais la barrire raciale en se mariant.
7
On est loin du mtissage gnralis puisque les unions entre Blanc et Hispanique sont plus
frquentes (43 % des nouvelles unions) que celles entre Blanc et Noir (12 %). Les clichs
sexuels psent encore puisque 24 % des hommes noirs (10 % en 1990) pousent une
femme non noire, alors que 9 % des femmes noires se marient avec des non-Noirs (4 %
en 1990). Mais un nombre suffit rsumer la normalisation des unions mixtes : 35 % des
Amricains disent avoir un membre de leur famille mari avec quelqu'un d'une autre
origine.
Depuis 2000, la ralit de cette mixit longtemps taboue a t officialise : les formulaires
du recensement offrent la possibilit de cocher plus d'une appartenance raciale. Cela
n'allait pas de soi, notamment aux yeux des Noirs, pour qui le mtissage renvoyait au viol
des femmes esclaves par leur matre. Barack Obama, n d'une mre blanche et d'un pre
noir, s'est toujours dfini comme " noir ". En 2000, seuls sept millions d'Amricains (3,4 %
de la population) avaient coch plus d'une case. Dix ans plus tard, leur nombre a
augment de 50 %. La one drop rule, rgle selon laquelle il suffisait d'une goutte de sang
noir dans son ascendance pour faire de vous un Noir, a vcu.
" Noire et blanche : nous cochons les deux cases pour Rebecca, notre fille de 13 ans, dit
Iris Clark, fonctionnaire de 32 ans Tampa, Blanche marie un ingnieur commercial
noir. Cela lui semble naturel de se dfinir comme biraciale. Mais la plupart des gens ne
parviennent pas la voir ainsi, car les Amricains restent enferms dans des catgories
figes. Comme elle est mate de peau, ils la prennent pour une Hispanique ! Ils n'arrivent
pas raisonner en termes multiraciaux. "
La rlection du prsident inclut pour elle un enjeu minemment personnel. Elle considre
que le scrutin est aussi un rfrendum sur l'acceptation ou non de la diversit. A ses yeux,
les deux candidats reprsentent deux Amriques dont les images, si spectaculairement
diffrentes, sont apparues lors des conventions des deux partis. Une assistance presque
uniformment blanche chez les rpublicains, bigarre chez les dmocrates. Pour Iris Clark,
la manire qu'a chaque camp d'voquer les origines du prsident reflte l'extrme
polarisation du pays sur la question identitaire. " Les dmocrates parlent de sa mre, de
son enfance chez ses grands-parents - blancs - pour rassurer ; les rpublicains prfrent
mettre en avant son pre - knyan - pour insinuer qu'il n'est pas vraiment amricain. "
La bataille n'est pas acheve. Tous les couples mixtes affrontent des ractions d'hostilit,
voire des humiliations. Yoedy Gonzalez, le compagnon de Sara Behnke, a failli en venir aux
mains avec leurs voisins qui, un 4 juillet (jour de la fte nationale) o leur sono jouait une
salsa retentissante, lui avait intim l'ordre d'" arrter cette musique de merde ". " Il ne
supporte pas qu'une Blanche vive avec quelqu'un qui a la peau sombre, dit-elle, il cherchait
nous provoquer. " Un soir, un concert de musique africaine, Iris Clark a entendu un
Noir maugrer l'intention de son mari : " Pour qui il se prend celui-l ? ", une rflexion
hostile son choix conjugal... et elle-mme. Un autre jour, une collgue de bureau lui a
lanc en apprenant qu'elle vivait avec un Noir : " Je ne pensais pas que tu tais ce genre
de personne ! "
Pourtant, Nadine Smith, qui, elle, a franchi deux barrires - celle de la race et celle du sexe
- en pousant Andrea Hildebran, est persuade que leur fils de 18 mois, Logan,
appartiendra " une gnration pour qui la race et l'orientation sexuelle seront tout
simplement invisibles ". Elle engage la conversation en tendant firement son iPad : " Voici
ma femme et notre bb. Il y a beaucoup de diversits dans notre couple, n'est-ce pas ? "
L'enfant est n dans le Vermont, Etat o ses deux mamans ont pu se marier lgalement.
Nadine Smith, directrice de Equality Florida, une association de dfense des droits des
homosexuels, a t leve dans une famille noire aux origines mles, elle a fait
l'exprience de la haine raciale. " Quand j'tais enfant, le propritaire de notre maison a
prfr la faire inonder plutt que de la vendre mon pre. " Elle a grandi persuade
d'tre la seule gay de sa ville. Dans son lyce, la " semaine de la diversit " tait clbre
8
en servant des spaghettis ou des burritos la cantine. " Aujourd'hui, on est pass une
perception de la diversit un peu plus subtile, assure-t-elle. Obama a permis aux
Amricains de prendre conscience du fait qu'un jour, ce pays ne serait plus majoritairement
blanc et que ce ne serait pas forcment un drame. Il nous montre qu'on peut tous avancer
ensemble. Cela contraste avec l'amertume et la vision paranoaque de certains dirigeants
rpublicains. "
L'acceptation ou le rejet d'une Amrique en voie de mtissage serait donc l'un des clivages
en jeu lors de la prsidentielle. Un marqueur que les rpublicains gagneraient sans doute
prendre en compte. La tolrance raciale, comme sexuelle d'ailleurs, s'avre tre
directement proportionnelle l'ge : aujourd'hui, 85 % des Amricains de moins de 30 ans
accepteraient un mariage mixte dans leur famille contre 38 % des plus de 65 ans, selon
l'enqute de l'Institut Pew. Dans l'Amrique de demain, l'indiffrence raciale pourrait tre
une valeur en hausse.
Philippe Bernard
Financial Times (Reino Unido) - Romney would be a backward
step (Coluna / Martin Wolf)
If there is one thing on which almost all Americans agree it is that the performance of their
economy has been disappointing: growth is too slow and joblessness is too high. A large
proportion of the electorate is prone to blame the president for its disappointment. It is a
wonder that, in these circumstances, Barack Obama still has a chance of winning. Nor is
this state of affairs surprising. Early in February 2009, I opened a column by asking: "Has
Barack Obama's presidency already failed?" My argument was that "doing too little is now
far riskier than doing too much". The president did indeed act, but not decisively enough.
That was the past. Now consider the future. I suggest that four economic challenges are
particularly important: demand, supply, inequality and fiscal solvency.
Economists on both sides of the divide admit the weakness of private demand, while
disagreeing on the cause. My difference from both is that I believe this weakness is likely
to prove structural, not cyclical.
The point can be made by looking at sectoral financial balances (the difference between
sectoral income and spending, as shares of gross domestic product). The US has long run
deficits with foreigners. Since the crisis, these have come down, modestly. If foreigners run
surpluses, domestic agents must run deficits. In the post-crisis world, households and
businesses have also run surpluses. This has left the government running the deficits. (See
charts beneath the story package.)
Can this situation change without causing recession? Not easily. Suppose that foreigners
continued to run a surplus of 3 per cent of GDP, while the fiscal deficit fell to 3 per cent of
GDP. The US private sector would have to be in balance. In the second quarter of 2012, it
ran a surplus of income over spending of 5 per cent of GDP. To move into private sector
balance, while sustaining demand, either household spending or business investment must
soar. The former requires a surge in credit. The latter requires a rise in investment to
shares of GDP higher than in the stock market bubble of the 1990s. The former then is
undesirable; the latter is unlikely.
The second challenge is supply. In the long run, the determinant of growth is rising
productivity. The US is the most productive large economy in the world because it has been
the best at developing and applying new technology. On this, two points need to be made.
The first, as I noted in a column on October 2, is that productivity growth seems to be
slowing, though it remains good by the standards of other high-income countries. The
9
second is that in a world in which the connection between innovation and science is so
close, much depends on government support for the latter. The US government has played
a seminal role in innovation: the internet is just one example.
The third challenge is inequality. Here changes are profound (see chart). Apparently, 90
per cent of US income gains since the end of the recession have accrued to the top 1 per
cent of the income distribution. As the Congressional Budget Office notes, "real (inflation-
adjusted) mean household income, measured after government transfers and federal
taxes, grew by 62 per cent between 1979 and 2007. Over the same period, real median
after-tax household income grew by 35 per cent." This divergence has two implications.
First, changes in GDP fail to measure those in economic wellbeing across the population.
They measure changes at the top, instead: since the top 20 per cent earns 60 per cent of
market-based income and the top 1 per cent earns far more than the bottom 40 per cent,
that is obvious. Second, to the extent that a child's opportunity depends on the resources
of its parents, the result will be cumulative disadvantage. The more important human
capital is, the more powerful this must become.
The final issue is fiscal solvency. Peter Diamond, Nobel laureate and MIT economist, argues
that the US has an unemployment crisis and a public debt problem. I agree. Cutting fiscal
deficits is not the urgent task many assume it is, for two reasons. First, as argued above, it
cannot be done without risking a collapse in demand and then, possibly, a fiscal deficit
almost as big as that before, but at lower levels of activity. That is what it means to be in a
liquidity trap. Second, there is next to no risk of a significant rise in interest rates on US
treasuries, unless there is a strong economic recovery. But that would eliminate much of
the fiscal deficit, as revenue recovers and spending falls. The big solvency issue is spending
on healthcare, where the challenge is cost inflation.
Which of the candidates seems to recognise these issues in a sensible way? My view is that
Mr Obama's vision is inadequate. But Mitt Romney is George W. Bush reheated.
Mr Obama does not offer a sweep of reforms, which might reignite the dynamism that
lifted most boats in the mid-20th century. Probably, that is just too hard. But, as the Tax
Policy Center argues, it is impossible to look at Mr Romney's proposals reductions in
marginal income tax rates offset by unspecified reductions in tax expenditures without
concluding that they "would provide large tax cuts to high-income households, and
increase the tax burdens on middle- and lower-income taxpayers". In an economy with
surging inequality, this would make the underlying problem worse.
Given Mr Romney's commitment to large increases in defence spending, the outcome
would surely be a large rise in structural fiscal deficits. Republicans have proved much less
hostile to deficits in practice than in theory. Tax cuts are their true fiscal religion. The good
side of this is that the US will need those deficits, for some time. The bad side is that such
policies are more likely to generate a brief expansion than solid growth.
Republicans believe that the key to performance is less regulation and lower tax rates. Yet
a shift from rates of 35 per cent to ones of 28 per cent is unlikely to have a noticeable
effect on aggregate performance. Yes, taxes matter. But the view that they determine
economic performance on their own is certainly wrong.
The issues go far beyond economics. Divides over social and foreign policies are self-
evidently profound. But the economic choices are also important. Americans have a choice
between a man with modest ambitions and someone determined to double up on the fiscal
and financial policies of the pre-crisis era. Mr Romney, like the Bourbons, has learnt
nothing and forgotten nothing. What would be the consequences of such a repetition? The
world may be about to find out.
10
Le Huffington Post (Frana) Les lections amricaines vues
depuis Cuba
Yoani Sanchez, Blogueuse cubaine
50 ans aprs la crise des missiles, les lections amricaines offrent-elles un nouvel avenir
aux relations cubano-amricaines?
Dans les annes 90, une blague tait trs populaire dans les rues et maisons cubaines. On
racontait comment la matresse d'cole de Pepito (le personnage des contes humoristiques
cubains) montrait une photo du prsident des tats-Unis ses lves et lanait contre lui
un intense discours: "celui que vous voyez ici est le responsable de tous nos problmes, le
responsable du manque d'aliments et de l'effondrement du transport public". Aprs de
telles accusations, elle maintenait son index lev vers le portrait et la femme furieuse
demandait au plus espigle des lves: "Tu sais qui c'est?" Avec un large sourire, Pepito lui
rpondait: "Ah... oui, maintenant je le reconnais, faut dire que sans la barbe je ne l'avais
pas reconnu, matresse...".
Cette histoire satirique reflte en grande partie la polarisation de l'opinion publique
nationale sur l'origine des difficults conomiques et des restrictions des droits civiques qui
caractrisent l'actuel systme cubain. Alors que le discours officiel indique les tats-Unis
comme tant le dclencheur de ses plus grands maux, beaucoup d'autres voient sur la
propre Place de la Rvolution la racine des checs de ces 50 dernires annes.
Vrai ou pas, ce qui est sr c'est que chacune des onze administrations qui sont passes par
la Maison Blanche depuis 1959 a influ sur la politique de cette le. Parfois de manire
directe, et d'autres s'inscrivant comme un pilier soutenant la propagande idologique du
gouvernement de Fidel Castro et prsent, de son petit frre Ral. De fait, les attentes qui
se crent dans l'le la plus grande des Antilles tournent toujours autour de la figure qui
dcidera depuis le fauteuil du bureau ovale. Les lignes directrices de la politique cubaine
dpendent tellement de ce qui se passe dans ces urnes, de l'autre ct du dtroit de
Floride, que certains s'accordent dire dans l'opinion que nous n'avons jamais t "autant
dpendants" de l'tat du Nord.
La diplomatie cubaine semble plus se soucier de contrarier le grand voisin que de
solutionner le diffrend qui persiste entre les deux nations. Ainsi, lorsque cette posture
intransigeante fait face n'importe quel gouvernement nord-amricain, c'est avec toujours
plus de belligrance que les citoyens des deux cts restent enferms dans des tranches
antagonistes.
Jusqu'au point o beaucoup d'analystes sont d'accord pour dire qu'il sera plus facile de
mener une politique plus agressive de la part de l'Oncle Sam contre Ral Castro, que la
posture choisie par Barack Obama. La flexibilit dans l'envoi des devises, le rtablissement
des voyages acadmiques et l'augmentation de l'change culturel ont concoct une formule
difficile manuvrer pour la rhtorique du castrisme. Toutefois, ce dernier a aussi essay
de profiter conomiquement et politiquement de ces gestes venus de Washington. Ceci
tant, la grande question dans ce marasme est de savoir quelle attitude adopter pour
pencher du ct d'une dmocratisation de Cuba: serrer le poing ou tendre la main?
Reconnatre une lgitimit au gouvernement de l'le ou continuer le considrer comme
celui qui squestre sous son pouvoir 11 millions d'otages?
Lorsque le parti dmocrate, avec Barack Obama sa tte, est arriv la Maison Blanche
en janvier 2009, notre presse officielle se trouva face un rel problme. D'une part, la
jeunesse du prsident frachement lu et d'autre part sa condition d'enfant africain le
rendirent immdiatement trs populaire Cuba. cette poque, il n'tait pas rare de
croiser dans les rues des gens qui portaient un tee-shirt ou une casquette avec le visage de
l'ancien snateur de l'Illinois. C'tait la premire fois depuis des dcennies que des
11
compatriotes osaient porter publiquement une image de "l'ennemi" incarn. Pour une
population qui voyait les vieux visages de son gouvernement approcher ou dpasser les 80
ans, l'image d'un Obama jovial, agile, souriant, tait plus attachante que le mythe du
rvolutionnaire en uniforme vert-olive derrire son micro.
Son magntisme captiva aussi beaucoup de ces bonhommes et dut (a c'est sr!) ceux
qui attendaient une main plus dure envers la grontocratie de La Havane.
Adieu au socialisme, bonjour au pragmatisme
Au-del des questions politiques, les mesures entreprises par l'administration d'Obama se
sont fait sentir rapidement au sein des familles cubaines, spcialement dans les finances et
dans leurs relations avec leurs parents exils. Le flux de devises augmenta et les petites
entreprises qui sont nes aprs les rformes raulistes trouvrent dans cet argent arriv du
Nord un capital fondamental pour natre et se positionner. Chaque semaines des milliers de
Cubano-amricains arrivent l'aroport Jos Mart chargs de paquets, de mdicaments et
de vtements afin d'aider leurs familles qui sont restes sur l'le. Ceux qui voient la
situation cubaine comme une chaudire qui a besoin de pression pour exploser se sentent
plutt trahis par ces "concessions" faites par un gouvernement dmocrate un
gouvernement communiste. Ce sont les mmes qui pensent qu'une politique svre,
belliqueuse sur la scne diplomatique et d'asphyxie dans l'aspect conomique, donnerait de
bien meilleurs rsultats. Lamentablement, les cochons d'Inde qui doivent tester l'efficacit
d'une telle exprience seraient les Cubains bass sur l'le, ceux qui se languiraient
physiquement et socialement jusqu'au moment o se "rveillera" notre conscience civique.
Comme si les exemples que l'Histoire nous offrent n'taient pas assez suffisants, ceux qui
nous montrent que les rgimes totalitaires se sont renforcs en mme temps que
grandissait la crise conomique et o l'opinion internationale se retournait contre eux.
Ce n'est pas en vain que Mitt Romney soit autant mentionn dans la presse officielle
cubaine. Ses positions fermes ravivent le discours anti-imprialiste comme l'oxygne ravive
le feu. Le candidat rpublicain a t au centre d'une quantit inoue d'articles dans l'organe
officiel du Parti Communiste: le journal Granma. Ses photos et caricatures sont apparues
dans le journal qui se trouve dans l'embarras lorsqu'il faut se moquer physiquement
d'Obama. Face au mtissage important de la population cubaine, il est trs dlicat de lui
agrandir les oreilles et de lui repulper les lvres sans que ceci ne soit interprt comme une
plaisanterie raciste.
Si dans les annes 80 l'humour politique se nourrissait du visage rid de Ronald Reagan et
ensuite du physique de George W. Bush, il faut reconnatre que ces quatre dernires
annes ont t prudentes. Tout ce temps de retenue graphique retombera sur Romney s'il
est lu prsident des tats-Unis. Certains se frottent dj les mains en imaginant les
prochaines satires qui vendront.
Peu importe qui sera victorieux, il trouvera une Cuba en situation de changement. Les
rformes menes par Ral Castro souffrent de lenteur et de profondeur, elles sont voulues
par la majorit, mais vont dans la direction irrversible de l'ouverture conomique. La
Havane se remplit de caftrias et restaurants privs, il est dsormais possible d'acheter et
vendre des maisons et les Cubains arrivent commercialiser les voitures qui, durant
l'poque des subventions sovitiques, leur taient offertes en change de leur fidlit
politique. Les timides changements impulss par le Gnral Prsident menacent
d'endommager les piliers fondamentaux de ce qui fut le mandat de Fidel Castro. Le
volontarisme tout prix, l'galitarisme vulgaire, les campagnes conomiques ou politiques
qui maintenaient un statut de constante crispation dans le pays et une prsence
internationale trs active, paraissent devenir peu peu des choses du pass.
D'un ct, les citoyens eux-mmes ont commenc exprimenter la plus dfinitive de
toutes les transformations, celle qui arrive au sein de la socit. La critique citoyenne a
12
augment au point qu'elle n'arrive pas trouver les moyens pour se faire entendre dans
toute sa diversit, mais elle doit aussi craindre quotidiennement les reprsailles policires.
Les mdias officiels ont dfinitivement perdu le monopole du canal d'informations, grce
aux antennes paraboliques illgales depuis lesquelles on voit la tlvision transmise depuis
la Floride. Grce aussi aux rseaux alternatifs d'information, travers desquels circulent
des documentaires, des films, des articles de journalistes indpendants et le contenu de
blogs alternatifs. Comme si l'norme transatlantique de la censure rvolutionnaire tait
inond de toutes parts. Les plus jeunes mettent la pression pour avoir accs internet, les
retraits se plaignent de leurs pensions de misre et la majeure partie de la population est
en dsaccord avec les restrictions migratoires pour entrer et sortir de leur propre pays.
Finalement, l'illusion de l'unanimit se rduit en miettes entre les mains de Ral Castro.
Dans la bulle cubaine, le rsultat des lections nord-amricaines peut tre un lment
catalyseur ou ralentisseur de changements, mais il n'est dj plus le facteur le plus
important prendre en compte. Mmes si les panneaux qui assaillent les avenues
continuent traiter les tats-Unis comme un Goliath qui veut dtruire le petit David, ce qui
est certain c'est qu'un nombre de plus en plus important de personnes n'interprtent plus
cette mtaphore comme telle. Ces personnes sont prcisment celles qui savent que dans
notre cas, le gant destructeur est un gouvernement qui tente de contrler jusqu'au
moindre aspect de la vie nationale alors que son adversaire est un peuple qui prend petit
petit conscience de sa relle stature.
SRIA
The New York Times (EUA) Syrian Air Force Commander Is
Reported Killed
By RICK GLADSTONE
Syrias state television said Tuesday that insurgents had assassinated an air force
commander in Damascus, as news accounts from antigovernment activists reported an
intensified aerial bombing campaign against rebel targets, including the first warplane
attack inside the Syrian capital since the conflict began 20 months ago.
The developments were reported a day after the expiration of a four-day truce for the
Muslim holiday of Id al-Adha that had been widely and persistently violated. Each side
accused the other of subverting the cease-fire, which was negotiated by the special Syria
peace envoy of the United Nations and the Arab League, Lakhdar Brahimi. Mr. Brahimi had
said he hoped it would form the basis for the beginning of dialogue between President
Bashar al-Assads loyalists and his armed opponents.
An announcement carried on state television said the air force commander, Gen. Abdullah
Mahmud al-Khalidi, was killed in the Damascus district of Rukn al-Din on Monday by armed
terrorist groups, the governments categorical term for its adversaries.
The announcement did not specify how the commander had been killed, but it described
him as one of the countrys top aviation experts. Agence France-Presse, in a report from
Damascus, quoted an unidentified security source as saying the commander had been shot
to death while leaving a friends home.
The news agency also said that the Free Syrian Army, the main group of armed insurgents
in Syria, had claimed responsibility for the assassination. But other unconfirmed reports
from Syria raised the possibility the general had been killed by government agents to
prevent him from defecting. Al Jazeera quoted unidentified activists as saying "the regime
got rid of him before he does that.
13
Syrian insurgents have made no secret of their intent to kill Mr. Assads top aides. In July,
insurgent bombers killed the defense minister, deputy defense minister and assistant vice
president as they met in a Damascus safe house, the biggest single blow to Mr. Assads
inner circle since the uprising against him began in March 2011.
Reports from opposition activists, including the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a
group based in Britain with a network of contacts in Syria, said the official end of the
cease-fire on Monday brought a large expansion of aerial bombardments on Tuesday,
including a sortie by a fighter jet that dropped four bombs on the Damascus neighborhood
of Jobar. The observatory said it was the first reported instance of a fighter jet attack in
Damascus airspace, where the military had previously used helicopter gunships.
The Syrian Observatory said at least 23 people were killed Tuesday, most of them in Syrian
government airstrikes in the contested town of Douma, near Damascus. There was no way
to corroborate those casualty figures.
There were also unconfirmed reports of clashes between rebels and pro-government
Palestinian fighters near the large Yarmouk Palestinian refugee camp in the southern
Damascus area. The camp is the largest community of Palestinian refugees in Syria, and
the loyalty of its residents is politically important to Mr. Assad, who considers himself a
critical ally of militant Palestinians and has often characterized the uprising against him as
part of an Israeli plot.
Mr. Brahimi, an Algerian statesman who replaced Kofi Annan, the former United Nations
secretary general, as the special Syria envoy nearly two months ago, has expressed regret
that his cease-fire plan failed. But he has said he intends to present a broader plan to the
United Nations Security Council in November.
He has spent the past few days in visits to Russia and China, the two permanent members
of the Security Council that have blocked efforts by the other members to approve any
resolution that would threaten Mr. Assad with punitive consequences.
Financial Times (Reino Unido) - Rebels and Kurds clash in Aleppo
Abigail Fielding-Smith
A new front in the battle for Syria is threatening to open up after a wave of killings and
kidnappings shattered the wary co-existence between rebels and Kurds in Aleppo, the
country's biggest city.
The spate of deadly violence between two groups that had previously shared a tacit peace
pact is a sign of the fragmentation of Syria's society and the armed opposition's difficulties
in unifying the struggle against President Bashar al-Assad.
Fresh clashes between rebels and armed Kurdish units broke out on Tuesday in northern
Syria, activists said, underscoring the gravity of the first serious fighting between the two
factions since the 19-month-old uprising began.
"Clashes are spreading in wide stretches north of Aleppo and might get out of control and
destroy the entire Syrian revolution," said Hussein Jummo, a Kurdish political activist.
"Everybody is scared, the situation could be catastrophic."
Despite their history of opposition to the regime, Syria's approximately 2m Kurds have
generally sought to stay on the sidelines of the civil war, mistrustful of the Arab rebels who
they see as too close to Turkey. Turkey has its own Kurdish minority and is fighting a
decades-old war with the Kurdistan Workers party (PKK), a militant group with close links
to the Syrian Democratic Union party (PYD).
14
Many Arab opponents of Mr Assad believe in turn that the PYD connives with the Syrian
regime.
The two groups had nevertheless until last week lived alongside each other without much
violence, each operating in their own checkpoint-ringed enclaves in northern Syria.
All that changed on Friday, when clashes erupted after fighters from the rebel Free Syrian
Army entered the Kurdish-controlled Achrafiyeh district of Aleppo as part of a broader
and largely unsuccessful push to grab more territory in the crucial battleground city.
Accounts of what happened differ, but most agree the fighting erupted after a
demonstration by Kurds against the FSA's presence in the district, which Kurdish activists
say had invited shelling from the regime. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human
Rights, 30 people were killed in the ensuing violence, most of them rebels.
Activists say the FSA also stopped and arrested Kurdish civilians on the highway linking
Aleppo to the Kurdish stronghold of Afrin. Ali Bello, a commander with Ahrar al Suriya, one
of the rebel brigades involved in the clashes, said the Kurdish forces had arrested FSA
members.
Most activists say at least some of the Kurdish civilians have now been released and both
sides have since sought to defuse the situation. Ahrar al Suriya posted a statement on the
internet describing the Kurds as "brothers" in the struggle against the regime and
promising to solve the problem.
What makes the situation particularly dangerous is that rebel groups are struggling to co-
ordinate strategy and co-operate among themselves. Some activists reported that another
rebel group attacked the Kurdish village of Kastal Jendo, where clashes were still said to be
taking place on Tuesday.
Peter Harling of the International Crisis Group said that the outbreak of clashes had been
on the cards for some time, given the tensions between the two groups and the
competition over territory in such a chaotic environment, especially given that the Kurds
control strategically vital areas around the Turkish border.
Le Monde (Frana) Syrie : le mdiateur Brahimi appelle la
Chine jouer un "rle actif"
Le Monde.fr avec AFP
Loin de se calmer, les violences en Syrie connaissent une recrudescence, notamment
Damas, o des bombardements ariens ont eu lieu. Lakhdar Brahimi, missaire de l'ONU et
de la Ligue arabe, a profit d'un dplacement en Chine, mercredi 31 octobre, pour appeler
Pkin tenir un "rle actif" pour trouver une solution au conflit.
Le ministre des affaires trangres chinois, Yang Jiechi, a "salu les efforts" de M. Brahimi,
sans aller plus loin. La Chine, avec la Russie, ont bloqu trois projets de rsolution
occidentaux au Conseil de scurit de l'ONU visant condamner la rpression orchestre
par le rgime syrien. Mais Pkin dment prendre position pour le rgime de Bachar Al-
Assad, affirmant militer pour une solution acceptable pour toutes les parties.
"LA SITUATION EST MAUVAISE ET EMPIRE"
Lakhdar Brahimi tait en Chine aprs une visite Moscou, o il a rpt que "la crise en
Syrie est trs trs dangereuse, la situation est mauvaise et empire". Sa dernire tentative
pour mettre un terme aux combats s'est avre inutile. La trve de quatre jours propose
15
par M. Brahimi la semaine dernire a vol en clats, gouvernement et opposition s'en
rejetant la responsabilit.
Depuis, les combats se font de plus en plus intenses dans la capitale Damas, o pour la
premire fois un chasseur-bombardier de l'arme a effectu un raid, mardi. Le gnral
Abdallah Mahmoud Al-Khalidi, membre du commandement gnral de l'arme de l'air, a
galement t assassin dans le nord de la capitale, un meurtre revendiqu par l'Arme
syrienne libre.
Le Monde (Frana) - La Syrie dans la guerre civile : anatomie
d'un pays en morceaux
Le territoire syrien est divis en une multitude de zones dont le rgime de Bachar Al-Assad
et les rebelles se disputent le contrle
Le sort de la Syrie, pour l'instant du moins, se dcide sur le terrain, les armes la main.
L'envoy spcial des Nations unies et de la Ligue arabe, l'Algrien Lakhdar Brahimi, en a
fait le constat ses dpens. Cense dbuter vendredi 26 octobre, l'occasion de l'Ad el-
Kbir, la trve de quatre jours qu'il avait ngocie pied pied n'a jamais commenc. En
lieu et place de l'apaisement espr, c'est au train-train des tueries que l'on a assist : 146
morts vendredi, 114 samedi, 99 dimanche. Plus de 35 000 victimes depuis le dbut du
soulvement contre le rgime de Bachar Al-Assad, il y a dix-neuf mois. Faute d'initiative
diplomatique crdible, c'est donc sur le terrain qu'il faut se pencher pour comprendre o va
la Syrie. Localisation des forces, lignes de front, dynamiques des combats, flux de rfugis,
situations aux frontires : Le Monde dresse l'tat des lieux d'un pays patchwork, o
s'entremlent six types de zones.
Une zone contrle par le rgime mais qui ne lui est pas acquise. Il s'agit de la capitale,
Damas, o le rgime doit composer avec une population en grande majorit sunnite,
souvent hostile au pouvoir des Assad, issus d'un clan alaouite (chiite dissident). Son
appareil scuritaire contrle les principaux axes de communication ainsi que la plupart des
quartiers, exception faite de quelques secteurs au sud, comme Kfar Souss. Le sentiment
de matrise que les autorits s'attachent projeter est battu en brche par la multiplication
des attentats, comme celui men contre le sige de l'tat-major fin septembre.
Une zone contrle par le rgime et qui lui reste jusqu' prsent fidle. Elle comprend le
couloir ctier qui va de Lattaqui Tartous, et les villages de la chane montagneuse qui
surplombe le littoral. Le soutien que la population de cette rgion accorde au rgime
s'explique par des raisons communautaires elle est majoritairement alaouite, la confession
du clan prsidentiel , et par le fait que beaucoup de ses enfants sont employs dans les
institutions de l'Etat, notamment scuritaires.
La cohrence de ce secteur, o le rgime pourrait tre tent de se retrancher en cas de
chute de Damas, est menace par les combattants rebelles des djebels Akrad et Turkmne,
situs au nord-est de Lattaqui, qui cherchent avancer vers la cte. " Les partisans de la
rvolution font tat d'une fatigue croissante de la population de cette zone, car un grand
nombre des soldats tus dans les combats en sont originaires ", relve Ziad Majed,
politologue libanais.
Des zones contrles en grande partie par l'opposition mais soumises des
bombardements. Il s'agit des provinces d'Idlib et d'Alep, dans le nord du pays, ainsi que de
la valle de l'Euphrate, de Deir ez-Zor Abou Kamal, dans l'est de la Syrie. Ces territoires
sont pour l'essentiel aux mains des brigades de l'Arme syrienne libre (ASL). Le rgime n'y
conserve le contrle que de quelques villes, comme Idlib, et d'une poigne de bases
militaires, qui sont encercles par les rebelles mais ravitailles par les airs.
16
Ces poches de rsistance sont cruciales pour Damas, car elles rompent la continuit
territoriale entre les rgions " libres ". C'est le cas du camp militaire de Wadi Deif, dans
la province d'Idlib, prs de Maaret Al-Nouman, partir duquel le rgime s'efforce de
protger ses lignes de ravitaillement vers Alep. " Les combattants de l'ASL tiennent Maaret
Al-Nouman, mais ils restent la merci d'un bombardement depuis le camp voisin, affirme
le chercheur Thomas Pierret, spcialiste de la Syrie. Comme ils manquent d'armes lourdes,
ils ont les plus grandes difficults prendre le camp. Leur tactique consiste l'assiger et
affamer ses dfenseurs. "
Des zones disputes, thtre d'affrontements rptition, avec une ligne de dmarcation
mouvante. Elles se trouvent en lisire des grandes villes, comme Douma, Harasta et
Daraya, ces banlieues informelles de Damas, ou bien autour de Deraa et dans certains
quartiers priphriques d'Hama, qui demeure sous le contrle du pouvoir. Ces zones de
combats l'issue incertaine se rencontrent aussi l'intrieur de centres urbains, cheval
sur une ligne de fracture confessionnelle - comme Homs, divise entre quartiers sunnites
et alaouites - ou conomique - comme Alep, divise entre quartiers dshrits et
quartiers aiss.
Dans tous ces secteurs, le rgime compense sa relative absence physique par des
bombardements massifs et des incursions, parfois suivies de massacres. " En s'attaquant
ces zones pauvres, qui sont le vivier du soulvement, le rgime ne cherche pas seulement
vincer les rebelles, il veut aussi dtruire "la socit de la rvolution" ", souligne Ziad
Majed. Ces oprations de nettoyage n'offrent au rgime qu'un rpit limit car elles ne
parviennent pas empcher la rinfiltration des units de l'ASL, quelques semaines ou
quelques mois plus tard. " C'est le problme structurel du rgime, fait remarquer Thomas
Pierret. Faute d'hommes en nombre suffisant, il ne peut transformer sa supriorit militaire
en vritables gains territoriaux. "
Des zones sous contrle de milices kurdes ou de notables allis au rgime. Il s'agit de la
province de Hassak, dans le nord-est, quadrille par les forces paramilitaires kurdes,
proches du PKK, qui cooprent avec les autorits, tout en vitant les accrochages avec
l'ASL ; d'une grande partie du gouvernorat de Ar-Raqqah, dans le centre-est du pays,
peupl de Bdouins sunnites sdentariss, dont le pouvoir a su s'acheter l'allgeance ; et
de la province de Souweda, dans le sud.
Ces secteurs ne connaissent pas d'affrontements mais des manifestations s'y droulent
quotidiennement, en soutien la rvolution. Le rgime y maintient une prsence
scuritaire et ses avions les survolent rgulirement. Le calme qui prvaut Ar-Raqqah en
fait la destination de refuge privilgie des civils dplacs par les combats, dont le nombre
est estim par le Croissant-Rouge syrien 1,5 million.
Des zones frontalires sous haute tension. Qu'elles soient poreuses ou hermtiques, sous
la tutelle du rgime ou de l'ASL, les frontires sont un enjeu part dans la crise syrienne.
D'une part, parce qu'elles voient dfiler des dizaines de milliers de rfugis - les Nations
unies estiment que 358 000 Syriens ont fui l'tranger, principalement au Liban, en
Turquie et en Jordanie, et ils s'attendent ce que ce chiffre atteigne 700 000 la fin de
l'anne. D'autre part, parce qu'elles sont au coeur des risques d'embrasement de la rgion.
La frontire avec la Turquie, qui abrite l'tat-major de l'ASL, a t le thtre d'une escalade
militaire, la mi-octobre. Ankara a ripost coups d'obus de chars des tirs de mortier
sur son territoire.
Ct Liban, les menaces de dstabilisation sont encore plus nettes. Entre le Hezbollah, qui
se cache de moins en moins de servir de milice suppltive la dictature syrienne, les
affrontements entre sunnites et alaouites Tripoli et l'assassinat du gnral Wissam Al-
Hassan, le 19 octobre, attribu Damas, le pays du Cdre risque fort d'tre aspir par la
tragdie syrienne.
Benjamin Barthe
17
AMRICA LATINA E CARIBE
El Pas (Espanha) - " Brasil y Mxico tienen una gran historia por
escribir juntos (Blog Vientos de Brasil )
Por: Juan Arias
La frase la pronunci el Presidente de Mxico, Enrique Pea Nieto en su discurso dirigido a
la Presidenta Dilma Rousseff, cuando vino a encontrarse con ella en septiembre pasado,
antes an de tomar posesin de su cargo.
Las palabras del mandatario mexicano de que Mxico y Brasil "tienen una gran historia por
escribir juntos, fueron tomadas entonces no como una frase retrica sino como un real
acercamiento de Mxico a Amrica Latina y concretamente a Brasil, dos pases que juntos
tienen ya tantos habitantes como los Estados Unidos de Amrica.
Hoy las informaciones anuncian que Mxico va a crecer en este 2012 el doble o ms que
Brasil y quizs ms que la media de Amrica Latina.
Y se estudia el por qu Brasil no crece como Mxico ya que en lo negativo, ambos pases
sufren de las mismas dificultades como lo son la violencia del narcotrfico y la crisis
econmica mundial.
Los analistas buscan las diferencias que llevan a Mxico a crecer ms que en el pasado y,
al revs, a Brasil a crecer menos. Este ao el PIB brasileo no pasar de un 2%, si es que
llega, cuando ya lleg a crecer un 7%. El de Brasil puede llegar a un 4%.
Se dice que a Mxico le favorece el hecho de sus relaciones econmicas estrechas con los
Estados Unidos, cosa que a Brasil les cuesta ms ya que desea diversificar sus relaciones
comerciales en el mundo y de alguna forma est atada en sentido positivo al Mercosur que
por otra parte le supone a veces tambin un freno.
Lo cierto es que ya desde el gobierno de Felipe Caldern existe un movimiento, aunque
pueda ser an subterrneo, de acercamiento de Mxico a Brasil.
En Cancn en 2010, Caldern le haba dicho sin ambages al entonces Presidente brasileo
Lula da Silva: "Queremos ser socios de Brasil. Caldern y Lula comentaron entonces:
"Somos las dos mayores fuerzas de la regin. Imaginemos si unisemos nuestras
economas.
Sali Caldern y entr Pea Nieto que no slo ech marcha atrs sino que ha retomado con
mayor fuerza an una mayor relacin de Mxico con Amrica Latina y concretamente con
Brasil.
Hay analistas que defienden que a pesar de las dificultades que ambos pases han tenido y
siguen teniendo en la exportacin de coches al ser los dos grandes productores, la frase de
Pea podra acabar siendo ms que un gesto de simpata diplomtica.

Y explican que todo va a depender de la actitud de la mandataria brasilea, Rousseff, a la
que quizs le llegue a ser ms fcil estrechar esos lazos con Mxico ya que ella es ms
proclive que su antecesor Lula a mantener unas relaciones ms abiertas con los Estados
Unidos, sobretodo si Obama repite mandato, ya que entre ambos existi desde el primer
momento una gran sintona. Y al mismo tiempo, las fuertes relaciones entre Mxico y los
Estados Unidos, nunca se van a quebrar.
18
Brasil lo sabe muy bien y no puede dejar de ver que lo que est haciendo crecer a Mxico
son sus relaciones especiales con los Estados Unidos y ms lo sern si la economa de
aquel pas empezara a recuperarse.
A Mxico le ayuda tambin el hecho de que en China la mano de obra empieza a crecer por
lo que muchas empresas ponen sus ojos en aquel pas para producir y exportar. Y Estados
Unidos es siempre un gran absorbedor de manufacturados, por ejemplo.
No cabe duda que las relaciones naturales de Brasil son con la vecina Argentina, con la
cual sin embargo puede acabar teniendo problemas polticos si el gobierno de Cristina
Fernndez continua cerrndose democrticamente aumentando sus ribetes dictatoriales y
populistas.
La historia entre Brasil y Argentina, prcticamente est escrita. Ahora podra empezar la
tarea de escribir la de Brasil y Mxico, como hace ver Pea Nieto. Dilma tiene la ltima
palabra.
Financial Times (Reino Unido) - Rising star raises Argentine
hackles
By Jude Webber in Buenos Aires
Two years after the death of Nstor Kirchner, Argentinas former president, another Mr K is
now dominating the government.
Axel Kicillof is only a deputy minister. However, the young Marxist professor has stepped
smartly into the late former presidents shoes as captain of the economy, imprinting his
expanding influence ever more deeply on policy. He has emerged as chief ideologue for the
governments "national and popular agenda.
Though he has kept a slightly lower profile in recent days some observers suggest
Cristina Fernndez, Mr Kirchners widow and successor, holds him partly responsible for
approving a pay formula that sparked an embarrassing recent protest by uniformed
security forces his responsibilities continue to grow.
Just last week, he was put in joint charge of selecting infrastructure projects into which the
government is now obliging insurance companies to pour $1.5bn. That new task increases
an already workaholic workload, including regulating energy investment and serving on the
board of YPF, the oil and gas company whose expropriation six months ago he
masterminded.
"He remains the star figure, the flagship of everything going on in the economy, says
Carlos Germano, a political analyst.
For some, the charismatic 41-year-old father-of-two with the Elvis sideburns and open-
necked shirts has speedily racked up an unhealthy concentration of power that deepens
Argentinas business-unfriendly image a decade after its $100bn default.
Juan Jos Aranguren, head of Anglo-Dutch oil company Royal Dutch/Shells operations in
Argentina, this month furiously blasted Mr Kicillofs dual role both as head of a commission
overseeing energy companies investment and production targets, and a director of YPF,
the Argentine energy market leader.
"Weve just had to hand information on all our production to the director of a competitor
company, he complained. "Its a flagrant conflict of interest.
19
Indeed, not since Mr Kirchner has so much power over the economy been vested in one
person. Even after being succeeded by his wife in 2007, the former president who led the
country from ruin to Chinese-style growth was still, in effect, the economy minister until his
sudden death from a heart attack on October 27 2010.
Insiders say the gap left by Mr Kirchner inside the government is still palpable, two years
on, and Mr Kicillof, who belongs to the militant La Cmpora movement founded by the
Kirchners son, has only partly filled it.
His skills as an orator in defence of reindustrialising Argentina make him more than just a
yea-sayer trotting out support for Ms Fernndezs controversial economic model which
has brought import and foreign exchange controls and stagflation after average growth of
nearly 8 per cent a year from 2003-11.
But he alarmed investors this month by telling Congress frankly that import controls were
motivated by "the risk... that the dollars... run out.
And though he said greenbacks were needed for energy exploration and not "enabling the
richest in society to buy luxury goods, opposition media have seized with glee on his
sworn income statement, highlighting savings in dollars despite Ms Fernndezs order to
her officials to switch them into pesos, and a property in Uruguay.
Other bright young economists once tipped for great things within the government have
fizzled fast. These include Martn Lousteau, an economy minister who wanted to tackle
Argentinas dubious inflation figures but was out of government after just five months, and
Amado Boudou, the vice-president, whose dreams of succeeding Ms Fernndez in 2015
elections have been crushed by a corruption scandal.
That could be a salutary lesson for the ambitious Mr Kicillof. As one observer who sees the
president regularly remarked: "The Kirchners are tough with their enemies, but theyre
tough on their friends too.
La Nacin (Argentina) Dudan de la capacidad de pago de la
Argentina
Por Martn Kanenguiser | LA NACION
Las calificadoras de riesgo le bajaron ayer el pulgar a la Argentina, al considerar que el
reciente fallo de la justicia norteamericana complicar en forma categrica la capacidad de
pago del pas.
En este sentido, Standard & Poor's le baj la nota a la Argentina y Fitch le redujo la
perspectiva, mientras que, por ahora, Moody's no emiti ningn juicio formal por la
decisin de la Cmara de Apelaciones de EE.UU. que obliga a la Argentina a pagarles a los
bonistas en default.
Standard & Poor's indic en un comunicado que redujo de B a B- la nota de los bonos
soberanos al interpretar que "el Gobierno podra afrontar crecientes riesgos en el manejo
de su deuda tras el fallo", que "podra incrementar efectivamente los pasivos de la
Argentina y el servicio de la deuda del Gobierno".
De este modo, fue superada por todo el continente, menos por Jamaica, Granada y Belice.
El fallo se suma a otros problemas del Gobierno "para definir el manejo de su poltica
econmica y su programa financiero en el corto plazo", incluyendo la pesificacin de los
bonos de algunas provincias y el embargo de la Fragata Libertad en Ghana.
20
Aunque S&P se ataj ("no esperamos que el fallo del Tribunal de Apelaciones en Nueva
York tenga un impacto inmediato sobre el servicio de la deuda"), afirm que "continuar
dificultando cada vez ms la posibilidad de que la Argentina normalice sus relaciones con
sus acreedores privados, bilaterales y multilaterales". Segn el equipo de Sebastin
Briozzo, "las polticas establecidas desde la eleccin presidencial de octubre de 2011 con el
tiempo podran incrementar el riesgo de deterioro del marco macroeconmico del pas,
presionando su liquidez externa y debilitando las perspectivas de crecimiento del pas en el
mediano plazo".
Al respecto, mencionaron "las cada vez mayores restricciones sobre el comercio
internacional y el acceso a divisas, una modificacin al reglamento del BCRA y la creciente
intervencin del sector pblico" en la economa. Esto agravara "la elevada inflacin (que
contina apreciando el tipo de cambio real del pas) y los cada vez ms rgidos gastos
gubernamentales y da por resultado un deterioro del panorama fiscal de mediano plazo y
de las condiciones para la inversin". En cambio, concluyeron, el pulgar podra subir "si el
Gobierno toma acciones que recuperen la confianza de los inversores sobre las
perspectivas econmicas de mediano plazo (en el frente monetario o estructural), y reducir
as la incertidumbre sobre su posicin de liquidez externa".
Con menor envin, Fitch redujo la perspectiva de la nota argentina de estable a negativa.
Aunque en los hechos se trata de un golpe ms suave que el de S&P, la retrica de esta
agencia fue ms dura todava.
"La decisin refleja la creciente incertidumbre acerca de la capacidad de la Argentina de
pagar sus bonos emitidos con la ley de Nueva York a tiempo, utilizando el sistema
financiero de Estados Unidos, dado el reciente fallo de la Cmara de Apelaciones", indic la
analista Lucila Broide. Si bien en este momento no hay limitaciones para que el pas pague,
aclararon, "esto puede cambiar dependiendo de las observaciones del juez Thomas Griesa"
sobre la forma de pago y la responsabilidad de los bancos involucrados en la liquidacin de
estos bonos.
Como si supiera que las calificadoras haran esta movida, el ministro de Economa, Hernn
Lorenzino, haba empezado a defender la posicin argentina en su cuenta de Twitter
anteanoche: "No nos van a empujar a la trampa del default ni del endeudamiento a la que
nos quieren volver a llevar. Vamos a hacer lo que sea necesario para seguir honrando
nuestras deudas, como lo venimos haciendo desde 2003". Y desminti la reapertura del
canje.
La consultora Empiria, de Hernn Lacunza y Pedro Rabassa, indic que si que el Gobierno
toma una posicin irreductible "probablemente se gatillaran las clusulas de default de los
bonos, inhibiendo cualquier posibilidad de financiamiento externo", en un contexto de
cierto agotamiento de las fuentes pblicas de pago de la deuda.
Moody's, en tanto, an cree que el Gobierno tiene margen. "No vemos el escenario de
default", dijo a LA NACION Gabriel Torres desde Nueva York. Pero los acreedores creen que
a la Argentina slo le queda la opcin de pagarles, antes o despus de diciembre.
CHACO OFRECER DOS OPCIONES
El gobernador de Chaco, Jorge Capitanich, anunci ayer que su provincia ofrecer a los
tenedores de dos de sus bonos de deuda (aquellos que emiti en dlares, pero paga en
pesos desde comienzos de mes) el rescate anticipado o la pesificacin. "Se convocar a
asamblea a los tenedores de estos bonos con el fin de establecer distintas opciones: una es
el rescate anticipado del bono, y la otra, la conversin en pesos", sostuvo Capitanich, en
una rueda de prensa en la que admiti que buscaba la forma de regularizar el
incumplimiento. Adems revel que esa estrategia se haba adoptado despus de una
reunin que haba tenido en las ltimas horas con la jefa del Banco Central, Mercedes
21
Marc del Pont. Chaco quedara as a medio camino entre la opcin que explorar Formosa
(buscar el 9 del mes prximo un aval de los bonistas para una pesificacin) y la de
Tucumn, que analiza un rescate con pago en dlares y quita del 40 por ciento.
El Pas (Espanha) - El presidente de Venezuela nombra nuevo
ministro de Defensa
MAYE PRIMERA
El presidente venezolano Hugo Chvez ha nombrado a un nuevo ministro de Defensa, y lo
ha hecho a travs de una llamada telefnica que fue retransmitida el lunes por la tarde por
la estatal Venezolana de Televisin. La llamada de Chvez son en medio de una reunin
del Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV), para anunciar que el ministro en
funciones, el general Henry Rangel Silva, acababa de ser designado como uno de los
candidatos del oficialismo a las elecciones regionales de diciembre prximo. En el ltimo
minuto de la conversacin, el presidente-comandante dio la noticia del cambio de mando
en la Fuerza Armada: "Por otra parte, anuncio que he designado ministro de la Defensa al
almirante [Diego] Molero Bellavia, actual comandante general de la Armada.
Diego Molero Bellavia (Santa Ana de Coro, 1960) se define a s mismo como un soldado
"revolucionario, socialista y antiimperialista. Se gradu en la Escuela Naval de Venezuela
en 1982 y desde septiembre de 2011 fue comandante General de la Armada y a la vez,
comandante de la Regin Estratgica de Defensa Integral de Oriente. Antes, en 2004, fue
director de Inteligencia Naval y en 2007, director de la Escuela Bsica de la Fuerza Armada
Nacional.
Hugo Chvez anunci el nombramiento a travs de una llamada telefnica que fue
retransmitida por la estatal Venezolana de Televisin
"Nuestra lealtad y compromiso con la Revolucin Bolivariana y nuestro presidente
comandante en jefe Hugo Chvez Fras, no admite condiciones, escribi el almirante con
ocasin de su nombramiento como comandante de la Armada. En el mismo comunicado
dirigido a sus subalternos, Morelo Bellavia dijo ser de los que creen que "todo miembro de
la Armada Bolivariana debe ser un verdadero revolucionario y que "aquellos que no
sientan esta vocacin de servicio al pueblo y a la patria, deben hacer un esfuerzo por leer y
estudiar para que no les sigan engaando por desconocimiento.
El almirante Molero sustituir en el Ministerio de Defensa a otro hombre de confianza de
Chvez, el general Henry Rangel Silva. Rangel Silva fue designado en el cargo el 6 de
enero de este ao en medio de una gran polmica. En 2008, este general y otros seis altos
cargos del Gobierno venezolano fueron sancionados por la Oficina de Control de Activos
Extranjeros del Departamento del Tesoro de EE UU por, supuestamente, colaborar con las
actividades de narcotrfico de las guerrilleras Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de
Colombia (FARC). Antes de convertirse en ministro, el general Rangel Silva fue jefe del
Comando Estratgico Operacional, que sirve de bisagra entre las tropas del Ejrcito
venezolano y la presidencia de la Repblica.
El Universal (Venezuela) Confan que Chvez dar libertad a
presos polticos
Theresly Malav asegura que supuesta peticin de informes "es un rumor"
ALICIA DE LA ROSA | EL UNIVERSAL
La directora de la organizacin Justicia y Proceso Venezuela y abogada del caso 11 de
Abril, Theresly Malav, fue tajante en su declaracin: "El grupo de abogados que llevamos
la defensa de los presos polticos no hemos tenido contacto con nadie del Gobierno ni de
los Tribunales y tampoco nos han solicitado documentos para tramitar absolutamente
nada".
22
Las declaraciones las hizo a propsito de una informacin que circul el pasado lunes
donde aseguraban que el Gobierno nacional haba solicitado informes sobre los presos
polticos para evaluar la posibilidad de otorgarles la libertad.
"Eso es un rumor que lleg, como sucede todos los aos, por las fechas decembrinas
cuando los abogados de los presos polticos hacemos todas las diligencias para que el
Gobierno otorgue el indulto o se haga la peticin a la Asamblea Nacional de una Ley de
Amnista", asegur la abogado de los funcionarios de la PM del caso 11A, quien record que
el ao pasado se hizo el proceso "con mucha esperanza" y el presidente Hugo Chvez "slo
indult a presos comunes".
A pesar de la indiferencia que durante los ltimos aos ha mostrado el Ejecutivo Nacional
por los casos de presos y exiliados polticos, Malav confa que este ao la situacin ser
muy distinta.
"Los familiares y abogados tenemos fe porque con los resultados de las presidenciales se
abre un nuevo capitulo para la reconciliacin y la paz en Venezuela. El presidente Hugo
Chvez, despus de ser reelegido el pasado 7 de octubre, habl de dilogo con todos los
sectores y una buena forma de darle impulso a esa propuesta es con la libertad de los
presos polticos y el regreso de los exiliados", destac.
Acelerar los procesos
Theresly Malav tambin hizo un balance del estatus legal de los casos que lleva su
despacho. Precis que los funcionarios de la PM, Erasmo Bolvar, Luis Molina Cerrada,
Arube Prez, Julio Rodrguez, Hctor Robain y Marcos Hurtado desde hace ms de dos aos
esperan por las medidas alternativas de cumplimiento de la pena.
"Todos los requisitos, cartas de buena conducta, evaluaciones psicosociales, estn a
disposicin de los tribunales. Exigimos a los jueces que acten ajustados a derecho",
sostuvo.
Con respecto a Ivn Simonovis, la directora de Justicia y Proceso Venezuela, seal que los
abogados Igor Hernndez y Jos Luis Tamayo, solicitaron en da pasados un traslado a una
clnica privada para realizarles exmenes mdicos y as solicitar nuevamente la medida
humanitaria, pues aseguran que el estado de salud del ex inspector de la PTJ (actual Cicpc)
"es grave".
Para la paz, libertad
Por su parte, Mara Isabel Bolvar, representante de los familiares de los funcionarios de la
PM condenados por los sucesos del 11 de abril, le envi un mensaje al mandatario Hugo
Chvez.
"Nosotras las madres le pedimos, Presidente, a usted que representa el corazn de la
patria, que otorgue la libertad a nuestros familiares para que estas navidades sean
diferentes y cumpla con lo que prometi: la paz y reconciliacin del pas. Con presos y
exiliados, no lo podremos obtener", expres Bolvar.
BBC (Reino Unido) Chile secret agents charged over 1976
diplomat murder
A Spanish judge has indicted seven former members of the Chilean secret police for their
alleged role in the kidnapping and murder of a Spanish diplomat during Chile's military
rule.
23
The judge also ordered international arrest warrants for the seven accused.
UN diplomat Carmelo Soria was working in Chile when he was kidnapped, tortured and
murdered in 1976.
He is one of about 3,000 people to have been killed during Gen Augusto Pinochet's rule
from 1973 to 1990.
Judge Pablo Ruz charged six Chileans and one US citizen, all of whom worked for Gen
Augusto Pinochet's secret police force, with genocide, murder and kidnapping.
'Drugged and strangled'
Those charged include Juan Contreras, the former director of the secret police, Dina.
Contreras is currently serving a life sentence for crimes against humanity in Chile.
Also indicted was US citizen Michael Townley. Townley worked for the Dina in Chile, from
where he was extradited to the United States in 1978.
He confessed to and was sentenced for his involvement in the 1976 murder of the Chilean
ambassador to the US, Orlando Letelier, and his assistant.
He is reportedly living in the US under a witness protection programme.
The remaining indictees are all former Dina agents.
Judge Ruz said two of them stopped Carmelo Soria, who worked for the United Nations
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, as he was driving to his home
in the capital, Santiago.
The judge said two of the indicted agents detained Mr Soria, saying he had committed a
traffic infraction.
'Not effective'
They took Mr Soria to Townley's apartment, where he was questioned and tortured,
according to Judge Ruz.
The agents apparently suspected Mr Soria of having links to Chile's communist party.
Judge Ruz said the agents forced Soria to get drunk, either by forcing him to drink alcohol
or by injecting it into his bloodstream.
He was then strangled, his body placed in his car, and the car driven into a canal, Judge
Ruz said.
His body was pulled from the canal two days later. The Chilean authorities said Mr Soria
had driven the car into the canal drunk.
Months later, a Washington Post investigation showed his death had been the result of
torture, but Chile's military authorities refused to open another investigation.
The current case was brought by Spain's President Allende Foundation and taken up by
Judge Ruz after another Spanish judge ruled that the investigation into the alleged crimes
against Mr Soria "had not been effective" in Chile.
24
Le Monde (Frana) L'ouragan Sandy prcipite Hati dans la
dtresse sanitaire et alimentaire
Le Monde.fr avec AFP et Reuters
Alors qu'Hati se relve difficilement du sisme qui l'a durement frappe le 12 janvier 2010,
les consquences du passage de l'ouragan Sandy ce week-end pourraient s'avrer
dvastatrices pour la population dans les jours et les semaines venir. La petite nation
caribenne enregistre dj le triste record du bilan le plus lev des victimes de l'ouragan,
avec au moins 52 morts, 15 disparus et 19 blesss.
Pendant trois jours, Hati a t balaye par des intempries qui ont caus inondations,
glissements de terrain et destructions de maisons. La rgion la plus affecte est le
dpartement de l'Ouest, incluant Port-au-Prince, qui dplore une vingtaine de morts, dont
des familles entires ensevelies dans leurs maisons effondres. Dans la capitale, les
campements de fortune, qui abritent encore 370 000 victimes du sisme de 2010, ont t
durement touchs. Dans le sud d'Hati, on dnombre 18 morts.
De nombreuses plantations ont t dtruites et des routes ont t coupes, isolant des
villes dans les dpartements du Sud et du Sud-Ouest, ont indiqu les autorits. Sandy a
laiss 18 000 familles supplmentaires sans abri. Les quipes de la direction de la
protection civile d'Hati, assistes d'experts internationaux, ont tout juste entam
l'valuation des dgts causs par les 50 centimtres de pluie enregistrs dans certaines
rgions du pays. Plusieurs jours seront ncessaires pour compiler les donnes.
LE RISQUE D'PIDMIE DE CHOLRA
Les Nations unies s'inquitent des consquences long terme du passage de l'ouragan, et
notamment des risques lis l'aggravation des conditions sanitaires. Depuis octobre 2010,
le cholra a ainsi touch 600 000 habitants dans le pays et fait plus de 7 400 morts.
Au cours des derniers jours, les organisations humanitaires ont observ une forte
augmentation de cas de cholra prsums dans sept dpartements, dont 86 dans les
camps de rfugis de Port-au-Prince, selon l'Organisation panamricaine de la sant. Ce
qui reste encore difficile confirmer, car plusieurs communauts demeurent isoles et
uniquement accessibles par hlicoptre.
ALERTE SUR LA SCURIT ALIMENTAIRE
Les autorits hatiennes et les organisations humanitaires prsentes sur place s'inquitent
galement d'une augmentation des prix des biens de premire ncessit, du fait de la
destruction des plantations et des cultures de subsistance dans le tiers sud du pays.
"L'conomie a subi un coup svre", a indiqu le premier ministre, Laurent Lamothe,
Reuters. "La plupart des cultures pargnes par l'ouragan Isaac [qui a frapp l'le en avril]
ont t dtruites par Sandy", a-t-il dplor.
La destruction des denres alimentaires pourrait aggraver une situation dj tendue sur le
plan politique, alors que le pays a t secou au cours des derniers mois par de violentes
manifestations contre la vie chre. Une crainte exprime par Jean Debalio Jean-Jacques,
directeur du dpartement du Sud au ministre de l'agriculture. "Tout ce que les paysans
avaient mas, tubercules a t dvast. Certains avaient dj prpar leurs champs
pour les cultures d'hiver et a a t dvast", a-t-il dplor.
Dans la ville d'Abricots, dans le sud-ouest du pays, le maire Kechner Toussaint voque "un
dsastre agricole" et prdit "une famine dans les prochains jours". Rgimes de bananes et
arbres pain, bases de l'alimentation locale, ont t totalement dtruits. Dans la rgion de
Camp-Perrin, ce sont les cultures de caf qui ont t dvastes quelques semaines de la
25
rcolte. "Le caf est l'pargne des paysans", a dplor Maurice Jean-Louis, un planteur la
tte de la cooprative des planteurs de caf de Camp-Perrin.
APPEL L'AIDE INTERNATIONALE
Pour faire face la situation, le gouvernement a annonc l'octroi de 350 millions de
gourdes (6,3 millions d'euros) pour aider les rgions affectes. L'Etat et les organisations
humanitaires ont commenc distribuer de la nourriture, de l'eau et d'autres biens de
premire ncessit aux victimes de l'ouragan. Vendredi, le prsident hatien, Michel
Martelly, et le premier ministre avaient distribu des rations alimentaires et des bouteilles
d'eau dans les quartiers pauvres de la capitale. "Les stocks sont un niveau
dangereusement bas. Aprs la tempte tropicale Isaac en aot, ces stocks n'ont pas t
reconstitus", a averti George Ngwa, porte-parole de OCHA, qui coordonne l'aide
humanitaire en Hati.
Un appel l'aide internationale d'urgence a t lanc, auquel le Venezuela a dj rpondu
en envoyant un bateau et un avion cargo avec de l'eau et de la nourriture. L'Union
europenne a indiqu qu'elle soutiendrait les efforts de reconstruction en Hati, ainsi que
dans le reste des Carabes touch par l'ouragan. "L'UE se tient prte soutenir les efforts
de reconstruction. Nous continuerons galement soutenir les projets de prvention des
catastrophes et de rduction des risques dans les pays vulnrables des Carabes et autres
rgions sujettes aux catastrophes", ont crit dans un communiqu commun la haute
reprsentante de l'UE, Catherine Ashton, et la commissaire charge de la gestion des
crises, Kristalina Georgieva.
ARGENTINA IR
BBC (Reino Unido) Argentina e Irn completan primeras
conversaciones por atentado de 1994
Irn dijo haber completado una primera ronda de conversaciones con Argentina sobre el
atentado contra un centro de la comunidad juda de Buenos Aires en 1994, que dej 85
muertos.
"Expertos legales argentinos e iranes mantuvieron negociaciones sobre la AMIA
(Asociacin Mutual Israelita Argentina) y acordaron continuar con las negociaciones en el
futuro", dijo el vocero del Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Irn, Ramin
Mehmanparast.
El dilogo, destinado a explorar un mecanismo legal para investigar el ataque que no entre
en contradiccin con los sistemas legales de cada pas, haban sido acordadas en
septiembre.
Desde 2006, Argentina, pas con la mayor comunidad juda de Amrica Latina, demanda la
extradicin de ocho iranes por el atentado, aunque Irn siempre ha negado estar
vinculado con el ataque.
El encuentro entre funcionarios de ambos pases tuvo lugar en la sede de Naciones Unidas
en Ginebra (Suiza).
26
Clarn (Argentina) En medio de la negociacin, Irn insiste en
que no tuvo nada que ver
POR NATASHA NIEBIESKIKWIAT
El gobierno de Mahmud Ahmadinejad volvi a marcarle la cancha ayer a Cristina Kirchner,
pero esta vez, en medio de las negociaciones que los pases abrieron el lunes en Ginebra
para acordar un juicio viable para ambas capitales respecto a los iranes acusados por la
Argentina de ser autores intelectuales del ataque terrorista contra la Asociacin Mutual
Israelita Argentina (AMIA), de 1994. El objetivo de Ahmadinejad y Cristina es adems dar
una vuelta de pgina a este tema muy sensible para la colectividad juda y as normalizar
las relaciones diplomticas bilaterales, ya que las econmicas siguen creciendo.
En una declaracin ya conocida, pero que dicha ayer descoloc al pas y se adelant al
hermetismo oficial, el vocero de la cancillera persa, Ramin Mehmanparast, neg toda
responsabilidad por el ataque a la AMIA, que dej entonces 85 muertos, y cientos de
heridos.
"Nosotros condenamos el terrorismo, nosotros rechazamos cualquiera de las acusaciones
contra nuestros ciudadanos y nosotros declaramos nuestra disposicin a una revisin
detallada de quienes perpetraron este incidente. Las negociaciones en marcha (con la
Argentina) van a continuar hasta que se alcance una clara conclusin, afirm, segn lo
citaba ayer la agencia ISNA, que a su vez reprodujo el diario The Jerusalem Post . "Las
negociaciones (con la Argentina) estn en curso y continuarn hasta que se alcance una
conclusin clara, agreg.
El funcionario habl ayer en su reporte semanal a la prensa nacional que muestra escaso
inters en las negociaciones de Tehern con Buenos Aires, pero s focalizada en las
crecientes versiones los diarios de EE.UU. de que hay negociaciones all en curso con Irn
en torno al programa nuclear de los iranes, que les ha valido fuertes sanciones por parte
de Occidente.
Otro de los aspectos de la declaracin de Mehmanparast es que contradice la posicin
nacional del fiscal del Estado para la causa AMIA , Alberto Nisman, nombrado durante el
gobierno de Nstor Kirchner. Maana, en el Congreso, Nisman insistir con que tiene
pruebas "contundentes que demostraran la participacin de Irn en el ataque. Esta lnea
es acogida en Israel y EE.UU., pendientes de la entrada de Irn como un nuevo jugador en
Amrica latina.
Como ocurri en Nueva York, cuando a fines de septiembre Ahmadinejad se adelant a
Cristina y dijo que los dos pases haban montado un "grupo de trabajo para alcanzar una
solucin y una nueva agenda bilateral, las palabras de Mehmanparast cayeron psimo en el
Ejecutivo. As lo reconoci ayer a este diario una importante fuente consultada. Otra
fuente, extremadamente dura lleg a decir que a Ginebra se mand un grupo de "ineptos
sin experiencia que negocia con "fantasmas. Ocurre que ni Irn ni a Argentina han
comunicado quines son las contrapartes del vicecanciller Eduardo Zuan, de la Consejera
Legal de la Cancillera, Susana Ruiz Cerutti, y de la procuradora general del Tesoro,
Angelina Abbona. Por cierto, las dirigencias de la AMIA y de la Delegacin de Asociaciones
Israelitas Argentinas (DAIA), apartadas de todas las negociaciones del Gobierno con Irn
en el ltimo ao, consideraron las declaraciones del vocero iran como una "provocacin y
como determinantes.
Desde el domingo, en que la Cancillera inform que el lunes se abran las rondas de
encuentros tcnicos con los iranes en la sede de las Naciones Unidas de Ginebra, Hctor
Timerman no ha dicho ni una sola palabra. Fue l quien, por mandato de Cristina se reuni
el pasado 27 de setiembre con su par Al Akbar Salehi. Timerman segua ayer los hechos
27
en su oficina de Esmeralda y Arenales, adonde acaba de regresar de su cruzada
internacional para liberar la Fragata Libertad, retenida en Ghana.
Entre tanto, el diario israel Haaretz inform ayer que la reciente visita a Buenos Aires del
director de Amrica Latina de la Cancillera del Estado judo, Itzhak Shoham, termin con
una "advertencia de que Tel Aviv "no tolerar un acuerdo que excluya la extradicin de
los sospechosos del ataque y una compensacin para las familias de las vctimas. En el
mismo diario tambin se inform que Timerman no quiso recibir a Shoham.
MERCOSUL / UNASUL
ABC Color (Paraguai) Abogan por un rpido retorno
El presidente de la Cmara de Diputados considera favorable lo expresado por el
presidente del Uruguay, Jos Mujica, sobre el retorno del Paraguay al Mercosur antes de
las elecciones generales del 21 de abril prximo. "Ojal sea as, dijo Vctor Bogado.
"Paraguay debe retornar antes de abril (al Mercado Comn del Sur), respondi el
Presidente uruguayo a un enviado especial de nuestro diario a Montevideo durante la
inauguracin de la Segunda Conferencia Global sobre Investigacin Agrcola para el
Desarrollo (GCARD2).
Bogado sostuvo adems que un pronto retorno paraguayo al bloque sera una medida
acertada.
Seguidamente manifest que "de hecho, consideramos injusta nuestra exclusin de
manera unilateral.
Seal que "si hablamos de bloque, si hablamos de armonizar un grupo, un eje regional,
lgicamente no se puede hablar de hermandad entre las naciones si somos expulsados de
un bloque del cual somos parte y somos fundadores.
Preguntado si cree factible el retorno de nuestro pas al bloque regional conformado
tambin por Argentina, Brasil, Uruguay y ahora tambin Venezuela, Bogado respondi:
"Est en manos de ellos. Ellos fueron quienes tomaron esa medida poltica. "Me parece
bien que haya una reparacin histrica, dijo y reclam a los dems pases ser
consecuentes con el discurso y las acciones.
ABC Color (Paraguai) Unasur, en componenda con Lugo, busca
deslegitimar las elecciones
El ministro electoral Modesto Monges (Unace) asegur ayer que Unasur no es una
institucin seria, ya que tras la suspensin de Paraguay en el bloque, pretende contaminar
el proceso electoral 2013. Esta posicin coincide con algunos analistas que hablan de que
Lugo se "prestar a la "jugada.
La insistencia de los gobiernos que conforman la Unasur de enviar a sus observadores para
analizar los preparativos de las elecciones generales de 2013 tendra como trasfondo una
componenda para deslegitimar todo el proceso, segn se maneja en altas esferas polticas.
Segn varios analistas consultados, autoridades de la Unasur, cuyo secretario ejecutivo es
Al Rodrguez Areque -un excanciller de Hugo Chvez-, estaran en conversaciones con el
expresidente Fernando Lugo para que este se presente como candidato a la Presidencia de
la Repblica, teniendo de antemano el conocimiento de que una candidatura en esas
circunstancias sera impugnada.
28
Esto, siempre segn las fuentes, dara pie a que los observadores de la Unin de Naciones
Suramericanas deslegitimen todo el proceso electoral paraguayo, alegando el supuesto de
que el expresidente Lugo fue impedido de participar en los comicios de abril de 2013.
Por Venezuela
Pero la verdadera intencin de los gobiernos bolivarianos estara en impedir, a travs de la
deslegitimacin del gobierno que surja de las elecciones nacionales, que el Paraguay
retorne con todos sus derechos al Mercosur. Con ello, los gobiernos de Dilma Rousseff,
Cristina Fernndez y Jos Mujica no tendran que poner en peligro la permanencia de su
"convidado, Hugo Chvez, en el bloque regional. Asimismo, continuaran afirmando que en
nuestro pas se vive una democracia de baja calidad, que obligara a los tres pases a
mantener al nuestro fuera de los bloques regionales.
Posicin de Monges
La Unin de Naciones Suramericanas (Unasur) es una institucin jurdica mutilada, poco
seria, y si quiere venir a Paraguay a observar la eleccin general de 2013, debe hacerlo en
forma individual, manifest el oviedista Modesto Monges, miembro del Tribunal Superior de
Justicia Electoral (TSJE).
Monges manifest que los observadores del citado bloque deben venir en todo caso en
calidad de integrantes de la OEA. "La Justicia Electoral no debe destinar presupuesto para
facilitar su estada en el pas, recomend el oviedista.
Resalt que el TSJE ratifica la transparencia del proceso electoral y para ello se adoptaron
sistemas informticos avanzados para despejar cualquier tipo de dudas, segn el ministro.
Monges insisti en que no permitirn que organismos internacionales como la Unasur
pretendan daar la eleccin mediante una ideologa perimida. "No permitiremos que nos
jodan el trabajo, asegur.
Fuentes del organismo electoral sealan que el ministro Juan Manuel Morales coincidira
con Monges en el tema Unasur.
La versin de una componenda para deslegitimar los comicios es comentada en varias
instancias, tanto polticas como legislativas y sera el motivo por el cual la Cancillera
insisti en que sin "gestos no admitira observadores de Unasur.
Una grosera intromisin
El 22 de junio, la Unasur realiz una alevosa intromisin en los asuntos internos del
Paraguay. Antes de concluir el juicio poltico al presidente Fernando Lugo, los cancilleres de
los pases del bloque que se encontraban en Asuncin ya anunciaron un bloqueo contra el
Paraguay. Incluso, el canciller venezolano Nicols Maduro intent coaccionar a la cpula
militar para que respondiera al entonces presidente Lugo.
ltima Hora (Paraguai) Bloque Regional analiza hoy el envo de
misin
El Grupo de Alto Nivel de Unasur, de seguimiento al caso de Paraguay, analiza hoy en Per
la posibilidad de enviar una misin de acompaamiento a los comicios de abril de 2013.
El anuncio fue hecho en una escueta nota de la Cancillera de Per, pas que preside la
Unin de Naciones Suramericanas (Unasur), sin precisiones sobre el contenido de la
reunin que encabezar el ex primer ministro peruano Salomn Lerner, inform ayer el
peridico digital Prensa Latina (PL).
29
Fuentes diplomticas dijeron a PL que los miembros de la comisin intercambiarn
opiniones sobre el posible envo de una misin tcnica de acompaamiento de Unasur para
observar las elecciones paraguayas.
Los informantes indicaron que el envo de la misin, cuyo carcter es tcnico, subrayaron,
no implica el reconocimiento del rgimen que derroc con un "golpe de Estado
parlamentario" al presidente Fernando Lugo, por lo cual Paraguay est suspendido en
Unasur.
Sealaron que la misin fue solicitada por fuerzas polticas de diversos signos, incluyendo a
la ANR.
Entorno Inteligente (Venezuela) VENEZUELA: Foro Binacional
Brasil -Venezuela sobre el Mercosur fortalece relaciones
polticas
La Cmara de Comercio de Santa Elena de Uairn, capital del municipio Gran Sabana del
estado Bolvar, fue el epicentro del foro binacional Brasil-Venezuela sobre el Mercado
Comn del Sur (Mercosur) realizado ayer con la presencia de empresarios y autoridades de
ambos pases, para discutir los benehcios que traer este organismo para ambas patrias
latinoamericanas. La actividad fortaleci las relaciones polticas y los lazos de
hermanamiento. As lo inform Francisco Rangel Gmez, gobernador de la entidad
bolivarense, quien particip en el acto, y seal que "la intencin es seguir estrechando
una relacin verdadera entre las dos naciones, muy contrario a lo que pasaba antes. Las
gobernaciones de Bolvar y Roraima se dan la mano para avanzar y potenciar ambas
entidades con el pleno apoyo de los gobiernos de Venezuela y de Brasil".
Mercosur "es la complementariedad de los pueblos por encima de cualquier otra cosa,
complementariedad en lo productivo, en lo humano, lo cual es totalmente contrario a lo
que estableca el Tratado de Libre Comercio", manifest. El encuentro fue propicio "para
tratar sobre el desarrollo de los municipios del sur de Bolvar y el apalancamiento de las
potencialidades como la minera y otros elementos estratgicos, as como levantar las
potencialidades de Roraima. Actualmente contamos con la interconexin terrestre y se
trabaja para lograr la interconexin area tras el ingreso de Venezuela al Mercosur".
Rangel Gmez, adems, destac que es factible la posible activacin del puerto libre en
Santa Elena de Uairn, que sera benehcioso para el territorio guayans, pues traer un
progreso integral y un benehcio para el pueblo de esta regin surea. Esperan crear una
lnea a- rea entre las dos regiones. "El xito del foro era buscar el encuentro entre todos
los sectores, y ya se dio. Adicionalmente, se constituy una comisin binacional y est
previsto la instalacin de las mesas de trabajo prximamente".
Se prev realizar otro foro binacional en enero, para emprender acciones concretas. Entre
algunos de los avances alcanzados gracias a las relaciones entre Bolvar y Roraima son,
segn Francisco Rangel Gmez, resalta la prxima graduacin de 12 j- venes
bolivarenses en la Universidad Estadal de Roraima, adems de ms de 200 ohciales de la
polica bolivarense, quienes han realizado cursos de formacin en dicho territorio brasileo.
Tambin una cantidad similar proveniente del estado de Roraima se ha instruido en suelo
guayans.
El Nacional (Venezuela) Saime garantiza cumplimiento de
acuerdos migratorios con pases del Mercosur
30
El director indic que el Saime fortaleci la red de oficinas de identificacin, cedulacin y
control migratorio tanto en Bolvar como en los estados Anzotegui, Monagas, Sucre y
Nueva Esparta, donde se registra un creciente movimiento de turistas provenientes de
Brasil, que se desplazan hacia el nor-oriente venezolano para disfrutar de sus playas
AVN
El Servicio Administrativo de Identificacin, Migracin y Extranjera (Saime) trabaja
activamente para implementar en su totalidad los mecanismos que garantizan la pronta
atencin y facilidad de movimiento turstico y migratorio de los pases integrantes del
Mercado Comn del Sur (Mercosur), asegur el director nacional de este organismo,
Fabricio Prez Morn.
El funcionario explic las acciones para cumplir esta tarea ante autoridades y empresarios
de los estados Bolvar (Venezuela) y Roraima (Brasil), presentes en el I Foro de Desarrollo
del Sur de Bolvar e Integracin con el Mercosur, realizado este martes en Santa Elena de
Uairn, capital del municipio Gran Sabana, en la entidad bolivarense.
Indic que el Saime fortaleci la red de oficinas de identificacin, cedulacin y control
migratorio tanto en Bolvar como en los estados Anzotegui, Monagas, Sucre y Nueva
Esparta, donde se registra un creciente movimiento de turistas provenientes de Brasil, que
se desplazan hacia el nor-oriente venezolano para disfrutar de sus playas.
Se crearon centros de Control de Movilidad en el puerto de Ferrys de Puerto La Cruz,
estado Anzotegui, as como en los puertos de Ferrys y Lanchas de Cuman, Chacopata y
Carpano, en el estado Sucre.
!RICA E ORIENTE MDIO
The Times (Reino Unido) - We have Iran and Syria in our sights,
says Israel
Deborah Haynes and Richard Beeston
Israel is ready to launch military action if Hezbollah militants try to move chemical weapons
or long-range ballistic missiles from Syria into Lebanon, the Israeli Defence Minister said
yesterday.
Ehud Barak voiced concern about the fate of Syria's stockpile of weapons once the regime
of President Assad falls, which he predicts will happen before the end of 2013.
The veteran politician and decorated general also warned that the possible need for a pre-
emptive air strike against Iranian nuclear facilities would return next spring, before the
Islamic Republic is able to enrich enough uranium to make an atomic bomb. The chances
of such a pre-emptive attack happening this year diminished after the Iranian regime
deliberately delayed its own enrichment programme.
Mr Barak is in London to meet Philip Hammond, William Hague and Sir Kim Darroch,
Britain's national security adviser, at a time when the Middle East is looking increasingly
volatile.
A critical issue for Israel, Britain and the US is the security of Syria's weapons, which could
easily reach Hezbollah. "We are worried that when he collapses, before everything goes out
of control, they might try to take several advanced surface-to-air missile systems in order
to deploy them in Lebanon or several Scud heavy missiles that cover practically the whole
of Israel from Lebanon, and bring it to their arsenal," Mr Barak said.
31
"Under certain circumstances they might contemplate trying to bring some chemical
materials or munitions or whatever. We are determined not to let it happen because it will
change the very delicate balance in Lebanon right now." Asked whether such a move could
happen as early as this winter, Mr Barak said: "It could, I hope it won't but it could." He
added: "We are watching and we are ready to act."
The New York Times (EUA) Israeli Defense Chief Says Iran
Postponed Nuclear Ambitions
By RICK GLADSTONE
Israels defense minister said Tuesday that the country had interpreted Irans conversion of
some enriched uranium to fuel rods for civilian use as evidence that Iran had delayed
ambitions to build a nuclear weapon.
The assertion, by Defense Minister Ehud Barak in an interview with The Daily Telegraph, a
British newspaper, amounted to the first explanation from him as to why he and Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu softened their position in September over the possibility of a
military strike to thwart what they called Irans drive toward imminent nuclear weapons
capability.
Their tough position on Iran, which they consider Israels most dangerous enemy, had
generated tensions with the Obama administration, which has contended that Iran is many
months away from the ability to make a nuclear weapon.
Mr. Barak, who was visiting London, was quoted by the newspaper as saying an immediate
crisis had been averted this summer because Iran had chosen to use a third of its enriched
uranium for use as fuel rods in a medical research reactor. The conversion of that uranium,
which was reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency in August, makes it much
more difficult to use militarily.
The Iranian decision, Mr. Barak said, "allows contemplating delaying the moment of truth
by 8 to 10 months.
Asked why Iran would have decided on such a conversion, Mr. Barak said it might have
taken Israeli and American warnings seriously, might have wished to delay a confrontation
with Israel until after the American presidential elections, or might have been seeking to
convince the agency of the sincerity of its peaceful intent.
Iran has consistently denied it intends to build a nuclear weapon and has denounced
Israels assertions as warmongering.
The Iranians have also pointed out that Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation
Treaty and that Israel, which is not, possesses an unacknowledged stockpile of nuclear
weapons.
The Washington Post (EUA) Israel reckons with unraveling
Gaza policy
By Joel Greenberg,
JERUSALEM - When the emir of Qatar paid the first visit by a head of state to the Hamas-
ruled Gaza Strip last week, there were two different reactions from the Israeli Foreign
Ministry.
32
In one statement, Yigal Palmor, a spokesman for the ministry, accused the emir, Sheik
Hamad Bin Khalifa al-Thani, of backing a terrorist organization and having "thrown peace
under the bus.
But an Arabic-language spokesman for the ministry, Lior Ben Dor, told Radio Sawa, a U.S.-
funded station heard across the Middle East, that Israel welcomed the visit of the emir,
who pledged generous financial aid.
"Since our withdrawal from Gaza, the goal has been that Arab states come and help the
residents of Gaza, Ben Dor said, referring to the Israeli pullout in 2005.
The double message was a symptom of the unraveling of an Israeli policy toward Gaza that
was put in place after Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by Israel and the
United States, seized control of the territory in June 2007.
The Israeli government adopted measures to isolate Gaza, sharply restricting supply
shipments at border points, tightening bans on movement out of the territory, and
promoting an international diplomatic boycott of the Hamas government.
The policy, strongly backed by Washington, was coupled with moves to promote economic
development and foreign aid in the West Bank, where the Fatah movement of Palestinian
Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is dominant. The intention was to squeeze Hamas by
blockading and imposing austerity on Gaza, while boosting Abbas and Fatah through
improved living conditions in the West Bank.
But the policy essentially backfired. Hamas rallied popular support in Gaza through a
shared sense of siege, and it consolidated economic control by taxing goods smuggled
through tunnels from Egypt.
A deadly Israeli commando raid in 2010 on a Turkish ship carrying activists challenging
Israels naval blockade of Gaza led to an international outcry and a substantial loosening of
Israeli restrictions on shipment of goods to the territory.
The rise to power of Islamist movements in Egypt and other countries swept by the Arab
Spring provided Hamas with a diplomatic opening. The Hamas prime minister, Ismail
Haniyeh, has made two regional tours this year, visiting Egypt, Tunisia, Turkey, Bahrain,
Qatar, Kuwait and Iran. Egypt has eased restrictions on its border with the Gaza Strip,
allowing greater freedom of travel for Palestinians.
The Qatari emirs visit to Gaza, where he was received with an honor guard and the playing
of national anthems - as if the Hamas enclave were an independent state - was touted
by Haniyeh as the formal end of "the political and economic siege.
The emirs pledge of $400 million for projects including housing construction and road
improvements - well exceeding the amount of foreign aid Gaza receives annually -
contrasted sharply with the financial woes of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank,
where a falloff in aid has left Abbas and his allies struggling to pay salaries of thousands of
employees.
Egypt has promised to allow construction materials for the Qatari-funded projects through
its border crossing to the Gaza Strip, following earlier suggestions that the crossing might
be opened regularly for passage of commercial goods.
"This signifies the beginning of the collapse of the West Bank-first model, but we still have
to wait and see if Egypt follows through, said Nathan Thrall, an analyst with the
International Crisis Group.
33
Mkhaimar Abusada, a professor of political science at al-Azhar University in Gaza, said the
assumptions behind the effort to isolate Gaza and its rulers had been upended. "The policy
of isolating and weakening Hamas through sanctions and blockade failed miserably, he
said. "The model the U.S. and Europe tried to build in the West Bank did not lead to
positive results. Israel is expanding its settlements, the peace process has reached a dead
end, and the Palestinian Authority is on life support.
The new realities have brought some commentators in Israel to call for a reassessment.
Giora Eiland, a former general who headed Israels National Security Council during the
withdrawal from Gaza, asserted after the emirs visit that Israel should shift away from
trying to undermine Hamas rule and focus exclusively on security concerns, such as halting
rocket attacks across the border.
"Israel has an interest that Gaza resemble, as much as possible, a state with a stable
government. That is the only way to have an address for both deterrence and dealing with
security issues, Eiland wrote in the Yediot Ahronot daily. "Israel has an interest in
economic improvement in Gaza of the kind Qatar can bring. Such improvement creates
assets that any government would be concerned about damaging, and thus it will be more
moderate and cautious.
Yossi Alpher, an Israeli analyst and former director of the Jaffee Center for Strategic
Studies at Tel Aviv University, said in an interview that Israel should "recognize that Hamas
is in charge of Gaza and that were not going to change that.
"Let the Qataris rebuild the Gaza Strip, Alpher added. "The objective should be to reach
some kind of modus vivendi with Hamas.
Long-standing demands by the United States and other international mediators that Hamas
recognize Israel and renounce violence as a condition for diplomatic contacts have been
overtaken by events, Alpher said.
"The reality is that there are two separate Palestinian entities and no peace process with
either of them, so all of these conditions dont seem terribly relevant, he said. "The
question is, can we can find a way to dialogue with political Islam?
Le Monde (Frana) - L'UE prise en faute sur ses liens avec les
colonies israliennes
Jrusalem Correspondant
Les %uropens importent !eaucoup plus des implantations que des territoires palestiniens
La position de principe de l'Union europenne (UE), raffirme de multiples reprises ces
dernires dcennies, est de considrer que les colonies israliennes implantes au sein des
territoires palestiniens occups sont " illgales au regard du droit international ; elles
constituent un obstacle l'instauration de la paix ; elles risquent de rendre impossible une
solution fonde sur la coexistence de deux Etats ". Seulement, en pratique, l'UE fait
l'inverse des intentions affiches dans cette profession de foi.
Selon un rapport de 22 organisations non gouvernementales (ONG), rendu public mardi 30
octobre, la valeur annuelle des produits qu'elle importe des colonies est quinze fois
suprieure celle des produits qu'elle achte dans les territoires palestiniens : 230 millions
d'euros d'un ct, contre 15 millions d'euros de l'autre. Ces chiffres ont t fournis par le
gouvernement isralien la Banque mondiale. Ce rapport est intitul " La paix au rabais :
comment l'UE renforce les colonies israliennes illgales ".
34
Prfac par Hans van den Broek, ancien commissaire europen aux relations extrieures, il
a t rdig par des ONG de nombreux pays (France, Allemagne, Belgique, Grande-
Bretagne, Danemark, Sude, Norvge, Pays-Bas, Irlande), ainsi que par la Fdration
internationale des ligues des droits de l'homme (FIDH). Le rapport souligne que prs de 4
millions de Palestiniens vivent en Cisjordanie et Gaza (4,2 millions, selon l'Autorit
palestinienne), ainsi que 500 000 colons israliens, ce qui signifie que l'UE " importe au
moins 100 fois plus par colon que par Palestinien ".
Cette situation semble d'autant plus paradoxale, estiment les auteurs, que tout en
condamnant rgulirement les colonies israliennes, " elle soutient leur viabilit en
achetant leurs produits " et favorise de facto leur croissance. *" Etant donn que la plupart
des marchandises provenant des colonies portent une tiquette susceptible d'induire en
erreur, qui indique "Fabriqu en Isral", de nombreux consommateurs europens
soutiennent galement leur insu l'entreprise de colonisation ", ajoutent-ils, tout en
rappelant que l'UE est le plus important bailleur de fonds des Palestiniens. Elle a vers
environ 5 milliards d'euros de 1994 2011 l'Autorit palestinienne, dont 459 millions
d'euros en 2011.
Parmi les produits des colonies vendus en Europe figurent notamment des denres
agricoles, comme les dattes, les raisins, les agrumes, les herbes, les vins, ainsi que des
produits manufacturs, comme les cosmtiques de la marque Ahava, des composants des
machines gazifier SodaStream, les meubles de jardin Keter. Le rapport cite plusieurs
entreprises europennes, notamment franaises (Veolia, Alstom), et allemandes
(Heidelberg Cement, Deutsche Bahn), impliques dans l'conomie des colonies.
Les ONG recommandent aux gouvernements europens de prendre plusieurs mesures, en
particulier de veiller l'tiquetage correct de tous les produits des colonies (y compris les
produits manufacturs), comme l'ont fait, dans une certaine mesure, le Royaume-Uni et le
Danemark ; d'envisager l'interdiction des importations des produits des colonies, comme le
demande l'Irlande ; d'exclure les produits des colonies de l'accs prfrentiel aux marchs
europens, d'exclure les colonies des accords bilatraux et des instruments de coopration
avec Isral, etc.
Le premier ministre palestinien, Salam Fayyad, demande depuis longtemps la
communaut internationale de suivre l'exemple de l'Afrique du Sud et du Danemark, et de
boycotter les produits des colonies. Cependant, l'exception de la Grande-Bretagne, o
une grande chane de distribution (Co-operative Group) a annonc son intention de
boycotter les exportateurs agricoles israliens qui vendent galement les produits des
colonies, la campagne BDS (boycott, dsinvestissement, sanctions) ne connat qu'un
succs relatif en Europe.
Le rapporteur des Nations unies sur les droits de l'homme en Palestine, Richard Falk, a
rcemment appel au boycottage des entreprises impliques dans les colonies, s'attirant
les critiques tant des Etats-Unis, du Canada que d'Isral. Alors que Washington a qualifi
sa dmarche d'" irresponsable et inacceptable ", Ottawa lui a demand de " se rtracter ou
de dmissionner ".
Pour sa part, le premier ministre isralien, Benyamin Ntanyahou, qui arrive mercredi
Paris, ne cesse de souligner qu'un boycottage des produits des colonies entranerait une
perte d'emploi pour les 25 000 Palestiniens qui y travaillent, " ce qui aggraverait la crise
conomique que traverse l'Autorit palestinienne ".
Laurent Zecchini
35
Le Monde (Frana) Ntanyahou Paris parlera de l'Iran et
dnoncera avec Hollande l'antismitisme
Le Monde.fr avec AFP
Le premier ministre isralien, Benyamin Ntanyahou, entame, mercredi 31 octobre, une
visite de travail de deux jours en France, axe sur la crise nuclaire iranienne, la lutte
antiterroriste et un hommage avec Franois Hollande aux victimes juives de Mohamed
Merah Toulouse.
Cette premire visite du responsable isralien depuis l'accession au pouvoir du prsident
socialiste dbute par un entretien en fin de matine l'Elyse, suivi d'un djeuner. M.
Ntanyahou rencontrera ensuite le premier ministre Jean-Marc Ayrault et le chef de la
diplomatie Laurent Fabius.
Jeudi, il se rendra Toulouse pour une crmonie commmorative l'cole juive Ozar
Hatorah o un enseignant et trois enfants franco-israliens avaient t tus le 19 mars par
Mohamed Merah. Franois Hollande l'accompagnera dans cette dmarche, ce qui n'tait
pas prvu l'origine, selon la prsidence franaise. "M. Ntanyahou veut lancer un
message de solidarit avec les victimes du terrorisme, la fois les victimes juives et non
juives du terrorisme, et il veut souligner l'importance d'une action internationale unifie
contre le terrorisme", a prcis son entourage.
"GESTE EXTRAORDINAIRE"
Les quatre victimes de la tuerie de Toulouse avaient t enterres en Isral dans un climat
de vive motion. Cette double visite de MM. Hollande et Ntanyahou constitue "un geste
extraordinaire, un message trs fort d'unit contre cette menace qui pse sur toute
l'humanit", estime Nicole Yardeni, prsidente en Midi-Pyrnes du Conseil reprsentatif
des institutions juives de France (CRIF).
Avant de s'en prendre l'cole juive, Mohamed Merah avait au pralable abattu trois
parachutistes et l'enqute a rvl des failles dans son suivi par les services de
renseignement franais, qui l'avaient fich. A l'Elyse, le prsident franais et le premier
ministre isralien devaient s'entretenir du programme nuclaire controvers iranien. La
France est en pointe depuis plusieurs annes pour alourdir les sanctions contre Thran,
souponn de vouloir acqurir l'arme atomique sous couvert d'un programme civil, ce qu'il
dment.
Ct franais, Franois Hollande devrait avoir cur de pousser son interlocuteur
reprendre les ngociations de paix avec les Palestiniens, au point mort depuis plus de deux
ans. Pour Denis Charbit, professeur de sciences politiques, "la seule vraie pomme de
discorde entre MM. Ntanyahou et Hollande est l'absence de ngociations avec les
Palestiniens et la poursuite de la colonisation isralienne".
Financial Times (Reino Unido) - Sudan rejects Israeli arms claims
Reuters
Sudan dismissed as "misleading Israeli allegations it supplies arms to foes of the Jewish
state and said there was no foreign involvement in a munitions factory Khartoum says was
bombed by Israel.
The poor Muslim east African country has long been seen by Israel as a conduit for
weapons smuggled to the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip, through the Egyptian Sinai desert.
Four people were killed after fire broke out a week ago at the Yarmouk arms factory in the
south of Khartoum. The next day Sudan said an Israeli air strike was responsible.
36
Israel has not commented on the fire.
But Amos Gilad, a senior Israeli defence official, made clear that Sudan should be
considered fair game an enemy such as Hamas and Iran and that Cairos interests were
also at stake.
"It is clear that it [Sudan] supports the smuggling of munitions, or it helps Gaza, Mr Gilad
told Army Radio. "In actuality, these munitions pass through Egypt, so it is endangering its
major neighbour: Egypt.
The Sudanese foreign ministry said in a statement on Monday: "We confirm what everyone
knows Iran is not in need of weapons made in Sudan, whether for itself or for its allies.
It said Israel was "trying hard to leak misleading information through various sources
known to be connected to Israel in an effort to provide justifications and pretexts for its
abominable action.
"This includes talk about an alleged relation between the Yarmouk compound production
and Iran, Syria, Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the statement said.
Two Iranian warships that docked in Port Sudan on Monday were on a routine visit, said Ali
Karti, Sudanese Foreign Minister, denying the ships arrival had anything to do with the
Yarmouk factory.
"The movement of the Iranian ships is a routine movement. Their entry to Port Sudan is
well known and no secret, he told reporters in Khartoum.
On Monday, Irans official news agency said the helicopter carrier Khark and destroyer
Shahid Naqdi had docked in Sudan bearing a "message of peace and friendship, triggering
speculation the visit was related to the fire.
The vessels will be open to the public for a full day during their stay from October 28 to 31,
state media reported, quoting armed forces spokesman Al-Sawarmi Khalid, adding that
Pakistani, Egyptian, Indian and other vessels had made similar visits.
The New York Times (EUA) Citing Violence, Bahrain Bans All
Protests in New Crackdown
By KAREEM FAHIM
CAIRO - Citing recent episodes of violence, the government of Bahrain on Tuesday banned
all public rallies and demonstrations, a move that drew swift condemnation from human
rights groups and opposition activists who said it was intended solely to stifle criticism of
the ruling monarchy in the tiny Persian Gulf nation.
In a statement, Bahrains interior minister said protests were banned after "repeated
violations by rally organizers, including riots, attacks on property and calls for the
overthrow of "leading national figures. Legal action would be taken against anyone
attempting to organize a rally, the statement said.
A government spokesman, Fahad al-Binali, said in an interview that the ban would be
temporary and was intended to "calm things down after the recent deaths of protesters
and police officers.
37
Instead, though, the move seemed likely to inflame the already dangerous standoff
involving a protest movement that has been unable to wrest freedoms from a government
that opposition activists say is methodically blocking all avenues for dissent. In recent
weeks, activists have been prosecuted for postings on social media, and doctors, charged
with illegal gathering and other crimes after treating protesters, have been sent to jail.
"They dont want people to express their opinions, their anger, said Sayed Hadi al-Mosawi,
a member of Al-Wefaq, the largest opposition group. "This will not take the country to
stability.
Since the beginning of the Arab uprisings almost two years ago, Bahrains government has
struggled to contain the protests, which are focused on the ruling Sunni monarchys
chokehold on political power and fed by persistent complaints by the island nations
majority Shiite population of systematic, apartheidlike discrimination.
Backed by powerful allies, including Saudi Arabia and the United States, Bahrains
government, its critics charge, has faced little pressure to change. The Fifth Fleet of the
United States Navy is anchored in Bahrain.
As the crisis has stalled, the standoff has deteriorated into ever more violent, sometimes
deadly confrontations. In the last two months, two teenagers have been killed by the
security services, and a 19-year-old police officer was killed in what the authorities said
was an attack on one of their patrols. Last week, another police officer died of injuries he
sustained in April in what the government called a "domestic terrorist attack, a term
frequently used for protests.
In the statement, the interior minister, Sheikh Rashid bin Abdullah al-Khalifa, said that
rallies would be stopped until the authorities could ensure that "security is maintained. It
was unclear how the ban would change the response by the authorities, since many of the
protests are considered illegal by the government and are already met with force.
On Tuesday, Amnesty International said in a statement that the ban violated the right to
freedom of expression and peaceful assembly and "must be lifted immediately.
"Even in the event of sporadic or isolated violence once an assembly is under way, the
authorities cannot simply declare a blanket prohibition on all protests, said Hassiba Hadj
Sahraoui, the groups Middle East and North Africa deputy director.
The New York Times (EUA) A Push by Palestinians for U.N.
Status Continues
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
The Palestinian president is moving forward with his plan to seek upgraded observer status
at the United Nations next month, despite American and Israeli threats of financial or
diplomatic retaliation, according to Palestinian officials. The decision sets the stage for a
new showdown between Israel and the Palestinians at the world body, following last years
attempt by the Palestinians to seek status as a full member state.
SIA
Financial Times (Reino Unido) - China raises stakes over disputed
islands
Kathrin Hille and Michiyo Nakamoto
38
China has started making concerted efforts to chase Japanese ships out of waters
surrounding the disputed Senkaku islands in the East China Sea, ratcheting up tensions
between Asia's two largest economies.
The Chinese State Oceanic Administration which enforces the nation's maritime interests
said four of its ships on Tuesday tried to expel Japanese vessels out of waters where they
were operating "illegally".
Japan controls the Senkaku islands, but they are also claimed by China which calls them
the Diaoyu and Taiwan. The Japanese coastguard in recent months has been playing cat
and mouse games with Chinese vessels sailing near the Senkaku, and sometimes entering
waters that Japan says are its territory.
Japan's coastguard said Chinese surveillance ships approached waters it controls close to
9am displaying a warning that read: "You are in waters administered by the People's
Republic of China. You are already breaching the law. Move away immediately."
Japan's coastguard said it responded by warning the Chinese ships not to enter Japanese
waters. It said that four Chinese ships entered the waters it claims but then left. A Chinese
ship had previously sent out such a warning in September, the JCG said.
This move by China could change the status quo in a dispute that has escalated in recent
years, Chinese analysts said. Last month, Beijing announced a territorial baseline for the
disputed islands that defined the exact geographical location of its claimed territory to back
its long-standing claim.
"Chinese government vessels did not chase Japanese boats out of the islands' territorial
waters in the past, as these waters were an area controlled by the Japanese coastguard,"
said Li Guoqiang, an expert on border issues at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
"But the situation changed when we created a legal basis for enforcing our claim by
announcing the territorial baseline for the islands in September."
Beijing's announcement was in reaction to Tokyo's decision to nationalise some of the
disputed islands, a move that set off a furious reaction in China.
The Japanese government said the step was aimed at preventing the nationalist governor
of Tokyo, Shintaro Ishihara, from purchasing and developing the islands, and provoking
China. However, Beijing has rejected that argument as a ruse.
Last week, Zhang Zhijun, China's vice-foreign minister, again blasted Japan for the
decision in an indication that a series of negotiations with his Japanese counterpart to seek
a resolution to the current tension have run aground.
In the first half of September, dozens of Chinese cities witnessed large-scale anti-Japanese
demonstrations, and some nationalists went on a rampage, damaging Japanese
restaurants, department stores and Japanese-branded cars. There have also been some
attacks against Japanese citizens in China.
Chinese maritime surveillance vessels and fisheries administration vessels have patrolled
the waters round the islands almost daily over the past month. Chinese navy ships have
also appeared in waters close to the islands twice over the past two months.
Mr Li said the Chinese government was still restraining itself and would not lightly add to
the tension. "But if the Japanese don't change their ways and return to the path of
negotiation, such friction could increase," he said. "Then, it would not be a question of just
four vessels but many more."
39
The New York Times (EUA) Ex-Envoy Says U.S. Stirs China-
Japan Tensions
By JANE PERLEZ and KEITH BRADSHER
HONG KONG - A longtime Chinese diplomat warned Tuesday that the United States is
using Japan as a strategic tool in its effort to mount a comeback in Asia, a policy that he
said is serving to heighten tensions between China and Japan.
The retired diplomat, Chen Jian, who served as an under secretary general of the United
Nations and as Chinas ambassador to Japan, said the United States should restrain Tokyo
and should focus its diplomatic efforts on bringing about negotiations between China and
Japan over the disputed islands in the East China Sea known as the Diaoyu by China and
the Senkaku by Japan.
In an unusually biting assessment of the United States, Mr. Chen said: "It is in the U.S.
interest to quarrel with China, but not to fight with China.
While Mr. Chen has retired from Chinas diplomatic service, his remarks were particularly
significant because they represent the most detailed public exposition of Chinas views at a
time when Chinese officials have been wary of making comments because of the
approaching Communist Party Congress, which is scheduled to begin in Beijing on Nov. 8.
In the speech, which was organized by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and was
attended by half a dozen Chinese diplomats, Mr. Chen held out an olive branch by urging
that discussions between Japan and China should start on ways to reduce the risk of
clashes between Chinese and Japanese patrol vessels that have gotten perilously close off
the islands in the last month.
But the thrust of his speech was more hard-hitting, particularly regarding the United
States. Some in China and Japan see the issue of the islands "as a time bomb planted by
the U.S. between China and Japan, he said. "That time bomb is now exploding or about to
explode.
Mr. Chen accused the United States of encouraging the right wing in Japan, and fanning a
rise of militarism.
"The U.S. is urging Japan to play a greater role in the region in security terms, not just in
economic terms, he said during his speech at the Foreign Correspondents Club in Hong
Kong. That "suits the purpose of the right wing in Japan more than perfectly - their long-
held dream is now possible to be realized.
The United States has said that, in the event of conflict, the disputed islands are covered
by its mutual defense treaty with Japan, a position that China has severely criticized since
the latest dispute flared last month.
Mr. Chen described what he called the intervention of the United States in territorial
disputes in the South China Sea - where China has been at odds with another American
ally, the Philippines - as a way for the United States to expand its influence and restrain
the influence of China.
"Will these countries misjudge and draw China and the United States into a confrontation?
Mr. Chen asked. "The danger is apparent, and China needs to be aware of that.
40
Mr. Chen, who is now dean of the School of International Studies at Renmin University in
Beijing, offered a lengthy list of suggestions and assurances for how China hopes to resolve
tensions with its neighbors.
"China does not seek to provoke incidents, and will not be the one to do so first, he said.
He said that China had only sent administrative vessels to the disputed islands, not
warships from its navy.
Mr. Chen said major changes in Chinese foreign policy were unlikely to follow the selection
of a new leadership team at the Party Congress. "I think its going to be a smooth change,
and the main tenets of our foreign policy will remain very much the same, he said.
By far the biggest threat to stability in the region are the islands where Japan and China
are at odds. Little more than rocky outcrops in shark-infested waters, Japan won the
islands as the spoils of war in the Sino-Japanese War in 1895. The United States took over
administration of the islands at the end of World War II.
China expected that Japan as a defeated nation would have to give up the islands, and that
they would be returned to China. But the islands were not returned, rankling China and
Taiwan ever since - a rare issue on which those two agree.
The San Francisco Peace Treaty between Japan and the Allies in 1951 did not clearly
establish sovereignty of the islands.
In 1972, the United States returned the disputed islands to Japan, and Japan has
administered them since. When China and Japan restored diplomatic relations in 1972, the
leaders of the two countries decided to shelve the question of sovereignty of the islands
until a future date.
The Obama administration has stated that even though it would come to Japans side in
the event of conflict over the islands, it takes no position on the sovereignty of the islands.
The issue burst into the open last month when the Japanese government announced it was
purchasing several of the islands from a private family that has owned them for some
years. China denounced the purchase as "nationalization of the islands.
The government of Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda argued that it bought the islands to
prevent them from falling into the hands of Shintaro Ishihara, a right-wing politician who
last week announced he was leaving office as the governor of Tokyo.
Because the islands were transferred from one Japanese entity to another, Mr. Nodas
government says that the status quo has not changed, and that there is no need to open
negotiations with China over the issue at this time.
Japan and China have both had patrol vessels near the islands and each other in recent
days. The Japanese Coast Guard and the Chinese State Oceanic Administration each said in
separate statements on Tuesday that their vessels had demanded that the other sides
ships should leave the area.
Prime Minister Wen Jiabao of China and Mr. Noda are scheduled to attend a meeting in
Laos next week. The Japanese news media reported Tuesday that there were no plans for
the two men to hold a formal talks to resolve differences, although they might have an
informal meeting on the sidelines.
41
Le Monde (Frana) - La Chine est propritaire des les Diaoyu et
non le Japon (Opinio)
Kong Quan / Ambassadeur de Chine en France
Il y a douze ans, j'ai t nomm porte-parole du ministre des affaires trangres, poste
que j'ai occup pendant cinq ans. Durant mon mandat, les questions qui m'ont t le plus
souvent poses portaient sur les relations entre la Chine et le Japon autour de deux
questions principales : les problmes historiques et les contentieux territoriaux.
En 2006, le premier ministre japonais d'alors, Junichiro Koizumi, a tenu visiter le
sanctuaire Yasukuni, un acte synonyme d'hommage rendu aux criminels de guerre auteurs
de crimes contre l'humanit pendant la seconde guerre mondiale. Comment peut-on
imaginer que le peuple chinois et l'ensemble des peuples asiatiques victimes du militarisme
japonais puissent l'accepter ?
L'Europe a aussi beaucoup souffert lors de la seconde guerre mondiale. Cependant,
l'Allemagne a adopt une attitude radicalement oppose celle du Japon. Je me rappelle
encore vivement des scnes de la visite en 1970 du chancelier Willy Brandt en Pologne.
Une nation qui a le courage de reconnatre ses erreurs et de les corriger est une nation
confiante. L'attitude des Allemands l'gard de leur pass a constitu la base de la paix et
de la prosprit en Europe.
Aujourd'hui, les relations sino-japonaises se retrouvent une fois de plus dans une situation
trs difficile cause du contentieux autour des les Diaoyu. Bien des documents historiques
ont prouv que les les Diaoyu faisaient partie intgrante de la Chine. Et s'agissant des
documents anciens, que nous disent les documents historiques franais ?
J'ai demand mes collaborateurs de consulter les prcieuses archives de la Bibliothque
nationale franaise qui a mis notre disposition des cartes tablies par Guillaume Delisle
en 1772, Didier Robert de Vaugondy en 1778 et Alexandre Blondeau en 1817. Toutes ces
cartes ont dmontr de faon claire l'appartenance des les Diaoyu la Chine.
La restitution de ces les la Chine est en fait un devoir que le Japon doit assurer en tant
que pays vaincu de la seconde guerre mondiale conformment aux traits signs la fin de
la guerre. Au cours des ngociations menes par la Chine et le Japon en vue de
normalisation de leurs relations en 1972 et du trait de paix et d'amiti entre les deux pays
en 1978, les dirigeants chinois comme Zhou Enlai et Deng Xiaoping ont propos de laisser
de ct ce contentieux. Cette proposition a fait l'objet d'un consensus entre les deux pays
confirm par les premiers ministres japonais de l'poque, Kakuei Tanaka et Takeo Fukuda.
C'tait une des cautions essentielles pour toute normalisation des relations sino-japonaises.
La Chine souhaite dvelopper son conomie, amliorer les conditions de vie de sa
population. Tant de choses lui restent faire et qui ncessitent des efforts de plusieurs
gnrations. La Chine a besoin, de ce point de vue, plus que les autres, d'un
environnement de paix et de stabilit.
Lorsque j'tais porte-parole du ministre des affaires trangres, le Japon avait dj
commenc la construction de phares sur les les Diaoyu. Tout rcemment, dans le
prolongement de sa logique, le Japon a raviv intentionnellement le feu en " nationalisant "
l'le.
La Chine et le Japon partagent une proximit gographique, une similitude culturelle et une
interdpendance conomique. Quarante ans depuis la normalisation des relations sino-
japonaises, le volume du commerce entre les deux pays a atteint 340 milliards de dollars
(260 milliards d'euros). L'interdpendance conomique et commerciale est profonde, et nul
ne peut la briser. Alors que l'conomie mondiale souffre actuellement d'un ralentissement
42
soutenu, il est d'autant plus ncessaire la Chine et au Japon de renforcer, main dans la
main, leur coopration.
La Chine ne veut pas que cette situation difficile perdure. Nous souhaitons simplement que
la partie japonaise corrige au plus vite ses erreurs. La balle est maintenant dans le camp
du Japon.
EURO"A
Reuters (Reino Unido) - EU will lose Turkey if it hasn't joined by
2023: Erdogan
By Orhan Coskun
BERLIN (Reuters) - The European Union will lose Turkey if it doesn't grant it membership
by 2023, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday.
It was the first time Erdogan has given an indication of how long Ankara might continue
down the path towards EU entry, and his comments came at a time of growing alienation
between Turkey and a political entity it feels has cold-shouldered it.
Turkey's bid to join the EU, officially launched in 2005, has virtually ground to a halt in
recent years due to opposition from core EU members and the failure to find a solution to
the dispute over the divided island of Cyprus.
Asked during a panel discussion in Berlin on Tuesday night if Turkey would be an EU
member by 2023, Erdogan answered, "they probably won't string us along that long. But if
they do string us along until then the European Union will lose out, and at the very least
they will lose Turkey."
Turkey will celebrate the 100th anniversary of its foundation as a republic from the ruins of
the Ottoman Empire in 2023.
The predominantly Muslim but secular country of some 74 million people would strengthen
the European Union, Erdogan said. Some 6 million Turks already live within the European
Union, about 3 million of them in Germany, he said.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who Erdogan will meet on Wednesday, opposes full EU
membership and favors a privileged partnership instead, although foreign minister Guido
Westerwelle supports Ankara's bid.
Speaking at the opening of Turkey's new embassy building in Berlin, Westerwelle criticized
the impasse in accession talks. "It is bad for both sides and next year, we want to make a
new beginning to overcome this standstill."
Earlier this month Turkey's economy minister Zafer Caglayan scoffed at the EU's winning
the Nobel Peace Prize and condemned the bloc as the most hypocritical organization in the
world, saying it had "kept Turkey waiting at its door for 50 years."
Turkey has completed only one of 35 policy "chapters" every accession candidate must
conclude. All but 13 policy chapters in Ankara's negotiations are blocked and the European
Commission, the EU's executive arm, says Turkey does not yet meet required standards on
human rights and freedom of speech.
(Writing by Alexandra Hudson; editing by Jason Webb)
43
Le Monde (Frana) Clinton pousse la Bosnie vers l'UE et
dnonce le sparatisme
Le Monde.fr
Hillary Clinton a dnonc mardi Sarajevo la tentation sparatiste des leaders serbes de
Bosnie, et encourag les dirigeants de ce pays issu de l'ex-Yougoslavie choisir la voie de
l'UE et de l'Otan.
"Il est totalement inacceptable de constater que dix-sept ans aprs la fin de la guerre,
certains mettent en doute la souverainet et l'intgrit territoriale de la Bosnie", a dclar
Mme Clinton aux cts de Catherine Ashton, chef de la diplomatie europenne, l'issue
d'un entretien avec les membres de la prsidence tripartite bosnienne.
Mme Clinton a ainsi, sans les nommer, mis en cause les dirigeants des Serbes de Bosnie
qui agitent souvent la menace de proclamer leur indpendance. Tout rcemment encore, le
dirigeant serbe bosnien Milorad Dodik a voqu la possibilit de ngocier sparment
l'entre de l'entit serbe dans l'UE.
"AUCUN DOUTE" SUR L'AVENIR DE LA BOSNIE DANS L'UE
"Il n'y a aucun doute parmi les 27 membres de l'Union europenne que votre avenir est
dans l'UE", a affirm de son ct Mme Ashton.
Aprs Sarajevo, Mmes Clinton et Ashton partaient pour Belgrade pour y rencontrer le
prsident serbe Tomislav Nikolic et son Premier ministre Ivica Dacic et les encourager
renouer le dialogue avec le Kosovo. La Serbie refuse toujours de reconnatre
l'indpendance unilatralement proclame par Pristina en 2008, avec le soutien des Etats-
Unis et d'une majorit des pays membres de l'UE.
TEMAS ECON#MICOS E COMERCIAIS
Financial Times (Reino Unido) - Pemex/Petrobas: a tale of two
state oil companies
Claire Gordon
Shares of Petrobras fell sharply on Monday after the Brazilian state company reported a 12
per cent year-on-year decline in third-quarter net profit to $2.7bn.
The next day Pemex, the Mexican state oil company, reported a $1.9bn quarterly net
profit. But progress was huge: a year earlier, Pemex reported a $6.2bn net loss.
Pemex was boosted during the quarter by a 4.3 per cent increase in revenue to $31.8bn,
as well as by gains in financial operations. While production of crude and natural gas was
about flat, refinery and gas-processing units showed modest increases in output.
By contrast, Petrobras's third-quarter results were dragged down by weakness in refining,
a 65 per cent increase in exploration costs and a 2.3 per cent year-on-year decline in
production of crude and natural gas.
Yet the improvement in Pemex made no impact, however, on the price of its shares,
because it doesn't have any. Pemex is much more like a government department than a
business, state-owned or otherwise.
But Enrique Pea Nieto, who is due to be inaugurated as Mexico's president on December
1, has indicated that he wants Pemex to adopt something like the Petrobras model, where
44
the state company competes in its home and foreign markets with others from the rest of
the world.
Pemex enjoys a state monopoly in Mexico, which absorbs all of its capital spending. So no
overseas ventures for the Mexican company and no competitors on the home front.
How exactly Pea Nieto plans to change Pemex is far from clear. In broad terms, though,
he has spoken not of a straightforward privatization but rather of a Mexican market in
which Pemex competes with the private sector as well as state companies from other
countries.
That may sound straightforward. But, though many Mexicans support Pea Nieto's view,
others believe that all oil and gas must remain state property, as the Constitution currently
demands.
The 1938 oil nationalization has many vehement supporters. And the recent improvement
in Pemex's performance - above all two major deep-water discoveries that confounded
many critics - has convinced them that there is little need for change.
Pea Nieto and his team are going to burn plenty of oil - of the midnight variety - before
they find the right formula.
Bloomberg (EUA) Bra$il Seen Beating U.S. in Soybean Trade
as China Buys
By Luzi Ann Javier and Chanyaporn Chanjaroen
Bra$il, which is set to displace the U.S. as the largest soybean grower this year, may
extend that lead as planting is expanded to meet increased demand from China, the
biggest buyer, according to Rabobank International.
Output will gain to 81.76 million metric tons in 2013-2014 from an estimated 79.88 million
tons this year, Oswaldo Junqueira, head of trade commodity finance in Sao Paulo, said in
an interview. Brazilian farmers are set to expand sowing by 306,000 hectares (756,142
acres) to 27.4 million hectares, and may add almost 3 million hectares through 2021,
Junqueira said.
Rising supply from Bra$il will intensify competition among exporters, potentially hurting
demand for the oilseed grown in the U.S. Futures in Chicago have slumped 14 percent from
an all- time high last month on speculation that a record crop in Bra$il and supply from
Argentina, the third-largest grower, may offset losses in the U.S. after the worst drought in
half a century.
"Demand will be here in Asia, Junqueira said in an interview in Singapore on Oct. 29.
"Where will the supply be coming from to fulfill this gap? We see it from Bra$il.
Soybeans have rallied 28 percent this year in Chicago, making them the best performers
after wheat on the Standard & Poors GSCI Spot Index of raw materials. The most-active
price peaked at $17.89 a bushel on Sept. 4, and the January-delivery contract traded at
$15.4775 at 5:38 p.m. in Singapore.
Biggest Producer
Production in Bra$il climbed 53 percent in the past decade, compared with 7 percent in the
U.S., according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. In 2012-2013, Bra$il will harvest 81
million tons, topping the U.S. crop of 77.84 million tons, USDA projections show. Bra$il
may also be the largest shipper in 2012-2013, beating U.S. exports, the USDA estimates
show.
45
"Theres no more room in the U.S., Junqueira said. "We have some 158 million hectares
used for pasture now with low use of technology. If Brazilians put more efficiency in cattle
rearing, thatll improve productivity and free up more space for plantations without
expanding into the Amazon forest, he said.
Bra$ils share of Chinas imports has jumped 10-fold since 2000 as the South American
country ramped up production, Jasper van Schaik, a Singapore-based head of commodity
finance at Rabobank, said in the same interview.
In the year that ended Sept. 30, China imported 59.2 million tons of soybeans, customs
data show, with 45 percent from Bra$il and 39 percent from the U.S., according to
Bloomberg calculations. Cargill Inc., the biggest U.S. agricultural company, said last month
there was "a mega-trend of increasing consumption of meat, milk, eggs, in China,
according to Christopher Langholz, president of Cargill Animal Protein China.
Cooking Oil
Soybeans imported into China are crushed to make meal, which is fed to livestock and fish,
while the oil is the nations largest source of cooking oil. Chinas domestically grown beans
are mainly used to make tofu and soya sauce.
Chinas state-controlled Chongqing Grain Group Co. Ltd. plans to invest 4 billion reais
($1.97 billion) in a soybean complex in the Brazilian state of Bahia, according to a
statement posted on the states website in March 2011.
While a law in Bra$il bans foreigners from owning land, "they can invest in port terminals
and railroads, and logistics, Junqueira said. The government "is willing to create an
environment for that investment, he said.
Bra$il, Argentina, and Paraguay will boost output by 32.6 million tons to 144.1 million in
2012-2013, more than offsetting the decline of about 6.35 tons in the U.S. crop, according
to Bloomberg calculations based on USDA forecasts.
Project Syndicate (EUA) - Bra$il s Growth Conundrum
Andres Velasco
SANTIAGO Bra$il needs to grow more. That is what the countrys president, Dilma
Rousseff, keeps telling Brazilians. With the economy nearly stagnant in 2011 and the first
half of 2012, faster growth is a political necessity for her. But her admonition also reflects a
broader national preoccupation with economic might, befitting a vast country with
continent-size aspirations.
That outlook sets Bra$il apart in a region where politicians from Argentina and Chile to
Ecuador and Venezuela often seem more concerned with handing out slices of natural-
resource wealth than with creating new sources of prosperity.
To be sure, Bra$ils economic growth over the last decade owed much to the commodity
boom that has also benefitted its South American neighbors. In 2010, growth reached an
impressive 7.5% clip, as highly expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, implemented in
response to the global financial crisis, lifted the economy out of harms way.
Today, similar policies are again doing the trick, with GDP growth picking up in the second
half of 2012 and expected to reach more than 4% in 2013. But can Bra$il move beyond
these stop-and-go cycles and ensure steady growth?
One obvious constraint is a lack of investment in physical capital, as anyone who has used
Bra$ils maddening airports and roads can attest. Bra$il wants to compete with Asian
46
giants like China and India, but its investment rate, at just 19% of GDP, is decidedly un-
Asian. And, even at such a low level of investment, Bra$ils current-account deficit is more
than 2% of GDP, exposing an alarming paucity of domestic savings.
With Bra$ils new middle class focused on the consumption patterns commensurate with
its status, the additional savings must come from the public sector a task that previous
governments found politically unmanageable. Now, however, the countrys improved
macroeconomic picture is creating greater room for maneuver.
Bra$ils central bank has brought interest rates to record lows, and has vowed to keep
them there for a long time. For an indebted government, that is just what the doctored
ordered. Ilan Goldfajn, the chief economist at Ita Unibanco, estimates that a sustained
drop of one percentage point in the short-term interest rate saves the government the
equivalent of 0.5% of GDP.
The political challenge for Rousseffs administration is to channel those savings to new
public investment or to tax incentives for private investment, rather than adding to current
expenditures. That is why she adopted a hard line in a recent protracted wage dispute with
public-sector workers in which she ultimately prevailed, despite opposition within her own
party.
But even if new financing for investment can be found, it remains unclear which samba
troupes can lead Bra$ils economic carnival in the future. Bra$il has spawned some world-
class companies for example, aircraft manufacturer Embraer but most industrial sectors
remain focused on the internal market and are not internationally competitive.
High production costs, particularly in energy, are one key obstacle. The government has
recently used its regulatory power to push down rates for both households and firms. But,
in the long term, Bra$il will have to invest more in generation and those investments, as
every government in Latin America knows, are increasingly controversial for political and
environmental reasons.
The exchange rate is another essential issue. Bra$il has quietly dropped its decade-long
commitment to floating its currency, and has moved to a de facto semi-fixed regime, with
the exchange rate allowed to move only within a narrow band slightly above two reals to
the US dollar.
Brazilian authorities have tried to fix the exchange rate before, but these attempts tended
to be short-lived, because the financial costs of sterilizing the central banks currency-
market interventions are too high. Intervention costs have been limited so far, owing to
uncertainty in Europe, capital controls, and lower interest rates at home. But another wave
of global liquidity, prompted perhaps by a third round of quantitative easing in the United
States, could upset this delicate equilibrium.
The Rousseff administration is also creating incentives (subsidies, directed credit, and
even some new import tariffs) aimed at developing certain sectors. Enthusiasts describe it
as a new brand of modern industrial policy that can help to push Bra$il beyond its
traditional role as a commodity exporter. Critics call it a misguided effort that will only
create more distortions and retard growth.
In my view, the intellectual case for activist policies as made, for example, by Dani
Rodrik and Ricardo Hausmann of Harvard is strong. Markets for innovation and new ideas
work poorly and governments can help to address those market failures.
But Rodrik and Hausmann also show that getting such policies right implies exacting
requirements. Countries must create institutions to ensure that support is given and
withdrawn only with expected productivity in mind, not as a way to reward friends or
47
political allies. If Bra$il can get it right, it would rival a victory in the 2014 World Cup for
the countrys football team as a badge of national pride.
Andrs Velasco, a former finance minister of Chile, is a visiting professor at Columbia
University's School of International and Public Affairs.
Le Monde (Frana) - La production mondiale de vin baisserait de
6 % en 2012
Laurence Girard
L'Italie redevient premier producteur mondial, devant la France, o la rcolte chute de 19%
L'Italie reprend de peu la France, en 2012, son titre de premier producteur mondial de
vin. Une couronne qu'il avait concde son rival transalpin il y a un an. " Une victoire la
Pyrrhus ", nuance Federico Castellucci, directeur gnral de l'Organisation internationale de
la vigne et du vin (OIV) qui publiait, mardi 30 octobre, ses estimations sur la conjoncture
vitivinicole mondiale.
En effet, rarement les cuves auront t aussi peu remplies des deux cts des Alpes,
l'issue des vendanges maigrelettes qui viennent de se terminer. La France affiche une
chute brutale de sa production de 19 %, 40,4 millions d'hectolitres, aprs une anne
2011, il est vrai, trs favorable.
L'Italie, qui avait pti l'inverse d'une pitre vendange 2011, voit sa rcolte s'roder
encore de 3 %, 40,8 millions d'hectolitres. En Espagne, troisime producteur mondial,
avec 31,5 millions d'hectolitres, la baisse est de 6 %. La Grce et le Portugal font partie
des rares pays europens dont les rcoltes ont progress cette anne.
Sur l'ensemble de l'Europe, la baisse de la production atteint 9 %. Ce qui entrane la
production mondiale de vin en 2012 des plus bas historiques, selon l'OIV, qui l'estime
248,2 millions d'hectolitres, en retrait de 6 %. La dynamique des Etats-Unis, quatrime
producteur (20,5 millions d'hectolitres), en progression de 7 %, n'a pas russi compenser
la tendance.
Les alas de la mto expliquent cette contre-performance. Confronts des pisodes
mtorologiques chaotiques tout au long de l'anne, les vignerons franais en tmoignent.
Si le Beaujolais a t particulirement touch, peu de rgions viticoles ont t pargnes.
Mais l'OIV met aussi en exergue la diminution de la superficie des vignobles. La campagne
d'arrachage des vignes sur trois ans, finance par Bruxelles, s'est acheve en 2011. Sur
cette priode, le vignoble europen a diminu de 270 000 hectares. Mme si les primes
d'abandon ne sont plus d'actualit, les vignes continuent perdre du terrain en Europe et
se font aussi plus rares en Afrique du Sud et en Australie.
A l'inverse, les surfaces de vignes continuent de progresser, mme si c'est un rythme
ralenti, aux Etats-Unis, en Argentine et au Br%sil. Quant au Chili, o de nombreux
domaines viticoles se crent et o l'on valorise un cpage ancien, le carmenre, l'heure est
la conqute.
Records franais l'export
Reste connatre la soif des consommateurs. " Avant, 10 % de la population mondiale
consommait 60 % du vin. Cette population boit moins, mais la base de consommateurs
s'est largie avec l'arrive des Chinois ou des Corens ", estime M. Castellucci. Il craint que
" la consommation mondiale ne se dveloppe pas beaucoup dans un contexte de longue
48
crise conomique ". Elle est quasi stable depuis 2009. Selon le pire scnario, elle pourrait
baisser de 3 % en 2012.
49
Les producteurs franais de vin, qui battent des records l'exportation, scrutent
d'ventuels signes de ralentissement. Sur les huit premiers mois de l'anne, selon la
Fdration des exportateurs de vins & spiritueux (FEVS), les ventes de vin l'exportation
atteignent 4,66 milliards d'euros en progression de 13 %, champagne, bordeaux et
bourgogne tant les locomotives.
TEMAS INTERNOS
Financial Times (Reino Unido) - Bra$il gripped by anti-corruption
battle
Joe Leahy
Normally, live coverage of events in Bra$il is reserved for football matches.
But in recent weeks, the law professors at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), a Brazilian
educational institution, have been running live commentary on something entirely different
the Mensalo (or big monthly allowance) case in the Supreme Court.
So unprecedented is the case in which the court, in televised hearings, has convicted
senior members of Bra$il's former Workers' Party, the PT, of corruption that the
professors have set up an on-campus "situation room" to provide live commentary to the
media.
With the judges now moving to sentencing, interest in the trial is picking up.
"This case is a result of the strengthening of the rule of law in Bra$il," said Oscar Vilhena
Vieira, director of law at the FGV.
Some Brazilians, jaded by decades of scandals in Braslia in which the perpetrators seemed
to act with impunity, are suddenly daring to hope that the old ways of doing business may
finally be changing in the vast emerging-market nation.
Those convicted in the Mensalo include former top lieutenants of Luiz Incio Lula da Silva,
the former president such as his then chief of staff Jos Dirceu who were found guilty
of using public money to pay secret monthly stipends to opposition politicians in Congress
in return for their support. Scores of people have been found guilty. The few sentences
handed out so far have been tough.
"Bra$il is taking this seriously because they see it as part of their role as an emerging
power," said Alejandro Salas, regional director for the Americas at the anti-sleaze
organisation Transparency International, which ranks Bra$il at 3.8 out of 10 in its
corruption perceptions index (10 being regarded as "very clean"). This compares with
fellow members of the big Bric emerging markets: Russia at 2.4, India at 3.1 and China at
3.6.
"They will differentiate themselves from the other emerging economies by doing this by
improving governance," says Mr Salas.
One only needs to look at past cases, such as that of Ronaldo Cunha Lima, to understand
the excitement in Bra$il over Mensalo.
Cunha Lima, a former governor of the northern state of Paraba as well as a senator,
deputy of the lower house of Congress and a municipal councillor, shot and wounded a
colleague in a restaurant in 1993. He died of cancer this year after having spent only three
days in detention for the crime.
50
When his case finally came before a local court, he escaped judgment by becoming a
senator in 2003. In Bra$il, only the Supreme Court can handle criminal cases against
federal politicians.
When the Supreme Court finally found time to hear the case in 2007, Cunha Lima resigned
from the Senate, returning the matter to square one in the inefficient local court system.
"This man has manoeuvred and used tricks to escape trial for 14 years," Joaquim Barbosa,
the Supreme Court justice who is leading the Mensalo case, was quoted as saying at the
time.
Yet the case was only one of many: from that of Fernando Collor, a former president, who
is today a senator despite being impeached when he was in office for corruption, to that of
his father, Arnon Mello, a senator who shot dead a colleague in the Senate in 1963 but
never faced trial.
Indeed, in the past 30 years, 72 politicians have been murdered in Bra$il, according to a
list compiled by Carta Capital magazine. Corruption and political violence remain
entrenched.
"You have to keep in mind that in Bra$il until recently we have had cases of politicians
killing other politicians in public and not going to jail," said Joo Augusto de Castro Neves,
an analyst with Eurasia Group.
The Mensalo case points to wider changes taking place in Bra$il, according to
Transparency International's Mr Salas. The country is managing to couple institutional
improvements with more robust enforcement. Traditionally, Latin American countries have
struggled to do both in tandem.
Among the institutional reforms, Bra$il has introduced the ficha limpa, or "clean slate" law,
which prevents people convicted of crimes from running for public office. A law that also
prevented the Supreme Court from trying federal politicians without prior approval from
Congress has been revoked.
On the enforcement side, the role of the Supreme Court and independent public
prosecutors, envisaged in Bra$il's 1988 post-dictatorship constitution as a check and
balance on the executive, is beginning to take effect.
"It`s too early to celebrate, but at least the process has started," says Mr Salas.
Others caution that the optimism should not be overdone. Campaign finance, a source of
much corruption, remains murky, as are public tenders for jobs such as construction works
and bus lines. They also point to the growing size of government spending in Bra$il.
"This government is becoming more interventionist, so you have more opportunities for
corruption," says Luciano Dias, a political consultant in Braslia.
Still, Mensalo is leading some people, especially the young, to dare to take an interest in
politics again, says Oliver Stuenkel, assistant professor of international relations at FGV.
"It's amazing to see optimism without cynicism," he says.
51
The Washington Post (EUA) Bra$il debates how to divvy up oil
wealth, pitting haves against have-nots
By Associated Press,
BRASILIA, Bra$il - Brazilian lawmakers are struggling over how to spread any wealth
from the countrys vast and recently discovered offshore oil reserves. The battle pits states
close to the oil deposits against those further away.
The lower house of Bra$ils congress plans to vote this week on a measure that would give
the federal government 40 percent of the royalties. The rest would be split among states
and cities, favoring those closest to the oil. A version passed earlier by the Senate would
split the take equally across the country.
National Petroleum Agency director Magda Chambriard says that until the issue is settled,
officials cannot grant contracts to drill for the oil. Analysts say the deposits could hold as
much as 100,000 million barrels of oil.
Jornal de Notcias (Portugal) - Justia suspende liminar que
determinava sada de ndios de fazenda em Iguatemi
A justia brasileira derrubou, esta tera-feira, a deciso que determinava a retirada dos
ndios Guarani-Kaiow de rea na Fazenda Cambar, em Iguatemi, a 466 km de Campo
Grande, no Mato Grosso do Sul, regio Centro-Oeste do Brasil.
A deciso do Tribunal Regional Federal da 3 Regio (So Paulo e Mato Grosso do Sul) foi
confirmada no Twitter pela ministra da Secretaria Nacional dos Direitos Humanos, Maria do
Rosrio.
"Acabamos de receber deciso judicial que suspende reintegrao de posse do territrio
dos Guarani-Kaiow. Recurso do Governo Federal foi acatado", escreveu a ministra.
"De acordo com essa deciso, os indgenas ficam onde esto! Agora lutaremos para agilizar
o processo de estudos para demarcao desse territrio", acrescentou.
A liminar concedida por um juiz de Navira, Mato Grosso do Sul, levou a tribo a divulgar
uma carta em que anunciavam "morte coletiva" caso fossem obrigados a sair das terras. O
caso gerou comoo nas redes sociais.
O lder dos guarani-kaiwo Solano Lopes, no entanto, esclareceu que o texto no significa
que haver suicdio coletivo, mas que a tribo "lutar at ao ltimo guerreiro" pela
permanncia na propriedade.
52