(Not

too) few but capable

The scarcity of knowledgeable elders may have devastating consequences

March 20, 2104

Small changes in a population may lead to dramatic consequences, like the disappearance of the
migratory route of a species. A study carried out in collaboration with the SISSA has created a
model of the behaviour of a group of individuals on the move (like a school of fish, a herd of sheep
or a flock of birds, etc.) which, by changing a few simple parameters, reproduces the collective
behaviour patterns observed in the wild. The model shows that small quantitative changes in the
number of knowledgeable individuals and availability of food can lead to radical qualitative
changes in the groups behaviour.


Until the 50s, bluefin tuna fishing was a thriving industry in Norway, second only to sardine
fishing. Every year, bluefin tuna used to migrate from the eastern Mediterranean up to the
Norwegian coasts. Suddenly, however, over no more than 4-5 years, the tuna never went back to
Norway. In an attempt to solve this problem, Giancarlo De Luca from SISSA (the International
School for Advanced Studies of Trieste) together with an international team of researchers (from
the Centre for Theoretical Physics - ICTP of Trieste and the Technical University of Denmark)
started to devise a model based on an adaptive stochastic network. The physicists wanted to

simulate, simplifying it, the collective behaviour of animal groups. Their findings, published in the
journal Interface, show that the number of informed individuals in a group, sociality and the
strength of the decision of the informed individuals are critical variables, such that even minimal
fluctuations in these variables can result in catastrophic changes to the system.

We started out by taking inspiration from the phenomenon that affected the bluefin tuna, but in
actual fact we then developed a general model that can be applied to many situations of groups
on the move, explains De Luca.

The collective behaviour of a group can be treated as an emerging property, that is, the result of
the self-organization of each individuals behaviour. The majority of individuals in a group may
not possess adequate knowledge, for example, about where to find rich feeding grounds
explains De Luca. However, for the group to function, it is enough that only a minority of
individuals possess that information. The others, the ones who dont, will obey simple social rules,
for example by following their neighbours.

More in detail

The tendency to comply with the norm, the number of knowledgeable individuals and the
determination with which they follow their preferred route (which the researchers interpreted as
being directly related to the appeal, or abundance, of the resource) are critical variables. When
the number of informed individuals falls below a certain level, or the strength of their
determination to go in a certain direction falls below a certain threshold, the migratory pathway
disappears abruptly.

In our networks the individuals are points, with interconnections that form and disappear in the
course of the process, following some established rules. Its a simple and general way to model
the system which has the advantage of being able to be solved analytically, comments De Luca.

So what ever happened to the Norwegian tuna? Based on our results we formulated some
hypotheses which will, however, have to be tested experimentally, says De Luca. In the50s
Norway experienced a reduction in biomass and in the quantity of herrings, the main prey of tuna,
which might have played a role in their disappearance. This is consistent with our model, but
theres more to the story. In a short time the herring population returned to normal levels,
whereas the tuna never came back. Why?

One hypothesis is that, although the overall number of Mediterranean tuna has not changed,
what has changed is the composition of the population: The most desirable tuna specimens for
the fishing industry are the larger, older individuals, which are presumably also those with the
greater amount of knowledge, in other words the knowledgeable elders. concludes De Luca.

Another curious fact: what happens if there are too many knowledgeable elders? Too many
know-alls are useless, jokes De Luca. In fact, above a certain number of informed individuals,

the group performance does not improve so much as to justify the cost of their training. The
best cost-benefit ratio is obtained by keeping the number of informed individuals above a certain
level, provided they remain a minority of the whole population.


IMAGE:
Tuna specimens (credits: Takashi Hososhima - http://bit.ly/1mu5px4)

Contact:
Communication office:
pressroom@sissa.it
Tel: (+39) 040 3787557 | (+39) 340-5473118, (+39) 333-5275592
via Bonomea, 265
34136 Trieste

More information about SISSA: www.sissa.it