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Comentarios
• Terribles los datos publicados el viernes: el Promedio de Horas Trabajadas por Semana se mantiene sin cambios en 33. La Tasa de Desempleo se sitúa en el 10,2%.
Los datos sobre Cambio en el Empleo No Agrícola han sido de -190K – A PESAR de que la Tasa de Participación ha caído en puntos un 0,1%.
• Por su parte, el Crédito al Consumidor (sept.) se ha situado en los -14.800 millones de dólares, A PESAR de que CfC, y antes Citigroup, ha incrementado los tipos de
interés de las tarjetas de crédito hasta el 30%.
• No obstante, los mercados siguen siendo optimistas y se han recuperado del pico bajista al que se expusieron tras la publicación de los datos. El EURUSD ha
iniciado una lenta subida mientras que la deuda pública ha bajado.
• Nuestra posición para el día de hoy es “comprar en dips”, si bien no habrá cifras que actúen como desencadenante.
Publicaciones de ganancias
País Hora (GMT) Nombre GPA prevista GPA anterior Comentario
(G(GMT)(GMT)
Informe Diario de Mercado
2,5
120
100
1,5
1
80
0,5
60
0
-0,5
40
30-jun 30-aug 30-okt 30-dec 02-mar 02-maj 02-jul 02-sep 02-nov
10-11-2008 10-01-2009 10-03-2009 10-05-2009 10-07-2009 10-09-2009
US Breakeven 10 Year Saxo CDS Index
USD breakeven 10 Year – an expression for measuring Credit Default Swaps are expressions for the
inflation expectations. perceived default risk in a company. Now at 56.
AAA and BAA Corporate Bonds vs. 30yr US Treasuries
EURUSD Opt. Vol.
35 7
30 6
25 5
20 4
15 3
10 2
5 1
0 0
mar-08 jun-08 sep-08 dec-08 mar-09 jun-09 sep-09
okt-07 dec-07 mar-08 maj-08 jul-08 sep-08 nov-08 jan-09 mar-09 maj-09 jul-09 sep-09 nov-09
EUR-USD OPT VOL 1W EUR-USD OPT VOL 1M EUR-USD OPT VOL 1Y Moody BAA - US Generic Govt 30 Year Yield Moody AAA - US Generic Govt 30 Year Yield
Volatility at different time horizons. Too low, now? Spreads are easing, but still showing tight
corporate debt markets.
CEE-German Govt. Bond Spreads CBOE SPX VOLATILITY INDEX
12 45
40
10
35
8 30
25
6
20
4 15
10
2
5
0
0
apr-09 maj-09 jun-09 jul-09 aug-09 sep-09 okt-09
jan-09 feb-09 mar-09 apr-09 maj-09 jun-09 jul-09 aug-09 sep-09 okt-09 nov-09
CBOE SPX VOLATILITY INDX
GDMA Hungarian - German Czech Republic - German Poland - German
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