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This study analyzed factors influencing total water withdrawal for U.S. industrial sectors from 1997 to 2030. The authors used an economic input-output life cycle assessment model to estimate withdrawals from 1997-2002, finding a 3% increase. They decomposed this change into contributions from population, GDP per capita, water intensity, production structure, and consumption patterns. Consumption patterns had the largest impact by decreasing demands for agriculture and power. Projections estimated withdrawals from 2013-2030 could range from 70 to 430 trillion gallons depending on population, GDP, and water intensity scenarios, with GDP and intensity being most uncertain.
This study analyzed factors influencing total water withdrawal for U.S. industrial sectors from 1997 to 2030. The authors used an economic input-output life cycle assessment model to estimate withdrawals from 1997-2002, finding a 3% increase. They decomposed this change into contributions from population, GDP per capita, water intensity, production structure, and consumption patterns. Consumption patterns had the largest impact by decreasing demands for agriculture and power. Projections estimated withdrawals from 2013-2030 could range from 70 to 430 trillion gallons depending on population, GDP, and water intensity scenarios, with GDP and intensity being most uncertain.
This study analyzed factors influencing total water withdrawal for U.S. industrial sectors from 1997 to 2030. The authors used an economic input-output life cycle assessment model to estimate withdrawals from 1997-2002, finding a 3% increase. They decomposed this change into contributions from population, GDP per capita, water intensity, production structure, and consumption patterns. Consumption patterns had the largest impact by decreasing demands for agriculture and power. Projections estimated withdrawals from 2013-2030 could range from 70 to 430 trillion gallons depending on population, GDP, and water intensity scenarios, with GDP and intensity being most uncertain.
Factors Governing Total Water Withdrawal for U.S. Industrial Sectors for 1997 to 2030
Hui Wang, Mitchell J . Small, David A. Dzombak huiw1@andrew.cmu.edu;ms35@andrew.cmu.edu;dzombak@andrew.cmu.edu Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Steinbrenner Institute for Environmental Education and Research Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA
Extended Abstract U.S. total water withdrawal has grown slowly since 1980, while the U.S. population and per capita GDP increased about twice and three times, respectively, from 1950 to 2005. More water is required to support the growth of population and development of economy, which implies that other factors contributed to decreases in U.S. total water withdrawal.
The economic input-output life cycle assessment (EIO-LCA) model was used to estimate the total water withdrawal for U.S. industrial sectors for 1997 and 2002, which are the most recently reported years for economic input-output (EIO) table by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). A 3% increase in total water withdrawal was exhibited during the period of 1997- 2002. The change in total water withdrawal for U.S. industrial sectors during the five years was decomposed into changes in population, GDP per capita, water use intensity, production structure and consumption patterns. The method of structural decomposition analysis (SDA) was applied to quantify the contribution of each factor to the change in total water withdrawal for industrial sectors from 1997 to 2002. Changes in population, GDP per capita and water use intensity caused increased water withdrawals for the industrial sectors, while the changes in economic production structure and consumption patterns offset the expected increase in water withdrawal. The change in consumption patterns was the largest net contributor to the change in U.S. total water withdrawal, and was significantly influenced by decreased final demand for agricultural products and power generation. The overall contribution of increases in population and GDP per capita to change in water withdrawal for the industrial sectors were modest. The EIO-LCA model was extended to project the extent of increased water demand for U.S. industrial sectors across various scenarios for technology, population and economic growth for 2013-2030. Four scenarios were designed for each of population, GDP per capita, and water use intensity based upon the available predictions and historical data, remaining production structure and consumption patterns constant at 2012 level. The total water withdrawal for U.S. industrial sectors across different scenarios range from 70 to 430 trillion gallons in 2030, and the largest projected water withdrawal is 2.5 times the 2005 water withdrawal. The median of total water withdrawals during the period of 2013-2030 follow a continuous increasing trend, with an average annual growth rate of 0.5%. The uncertainty in GDP per capita and water use intensity are the two most significant contributors to the uncertainty in projected future total water withdrawals for U.S. industrial sectors.
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