Bab 4

Probabilitas

Chap 4-1
 Topik

„ Konsep dasar probabilitas

„ Sample spaces and events, simple probability, joint
probability
„ Kondisi probabilitas
„ Statistical independence, marginal probability
„ Bayes’s Theorem

Chap 4-2
 Topik
(continued)

„ probabilitas of a discrete random variable

„ Binomial distribution
„ Poisson distribution
„ Hypergeometric distribution

Chap 4-3
 Ruang Sampel

„ Himpunan semua kemungkinan

„ e.g.: All six faces of a die:

„ e.g.: All 52 cards in a deck:

Chap 4-4
 Kejadian

„ Kejadian sederhana
„ Kartu merah dari sekumpulan kartu bridge
„ Kejadian yang saling terhubung
„ Kartu As yang berasal dari kartu merah dan
kartu hitam

Chap 4-5
 Probabilitas

„ Probabilitas menyatakan 1 Certain

ukuran numerik dari suatu
kejadian
„ Bernilai antara 0 dan 1 .5
„ Jumlah probabilitas seluruh
kejadian 1

0 Impossible
Chap 4-6
 „ probabilitas dari kejadian E:
number of event outcomes
P( E ) =
total number of possible outcomes in the sample space
X
=
T e.g. P( ) = 2/36
(There are 2 ways to get one 6 and the other 4)

Chap 4-7
„ Probabilitas kejadian A dan B yang saling
terhubung , :
P(A and B) = P(A ∩ B)
number of outcomes from both A and B
=
total number of possible outcomes in sample space
E.g. P(Red Card and Ace)
2 Red Aces 1
= =
52 Total Number of Cards 26
Chap 4-8
 Tabel Probabilitas Kejadian yang
saling terhubung

Event
Event B1 B2 Total
A1 P(A1 and B1) P(A1 and B2) P(A1)

A2 P(A2 and B1) P(A2 and B2) P(A2)

Total P(B1) P(B2) 1

Joint Probability Marginal (Simple) Probability

Chap 4-9
„ Probabilitas kejadian , A or B:
P( A or B) = P( A ∪ B)
number of outcomes from either A or B or both
=
total number of outcomes in sample space
E.g. P (Red Card or Ace)
4 Aces + 26 Red Cards - 2 Red Aces
=
52 total number of cards
28 7
= =
52 13
Chap 4-10
 P(A1 or B1 ) = P(A1) + P(B1) - P(A1 and B1)
Event
Event B1 B2 Total
A1 P(A1 and B1) P(A1 and B2) P(A1)

A2 P(A2 and B1) P(A2 and B2) P(A2)

Total P(B1) P(B2) 1

For Mutually Exclusive Events: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Chap 4-11
„ The probabilitas kejadian B setelah kejadian A
terjadi :
P( A and B)
P( A | B) =
P( B)
E.g.
P(Red Card given that it is an Ace)
2 Red Aces 1
= =
4 Aces 2
Chap 4-12
 Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52

Revised Sample Space

P(Ace and Red) 2 / 52 2
P(Ace | Red) = = =
P(Red) 26 / 52 26
Chap 4-13
„ Conditional probability:
P( A and B )
P( A | B) =
P( B)
„ Penggandaan:

P ( A and B) = P( A | B) P ( B)
= P( B | A) P ( A)
Chap 4-14
 (continued)

„ Kejadian A dan B independent jika :

P ( A | B) = P( A)
or P ( B | A) = P( B)
or P ( A and B ) = P( A) P ( B)
„ Kejadian A dan B independen jika probabilitas
kejadian A, tidak dipengaruhi oleh kejadian
lain

Chap 4-15
 Bayes’s Theorem
P ( A | Bi ) P ( Bi )
P ( Bi | A ) =
P ( A | B1 ) P ( B1 ) + • • • + P ( A | Bk ) P ( Bk )
P ( Bi and A )
=
P ( A) Adding up
the parts
Same of A in all
Event the B’s

Chap 4-16