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TRIAL STPM MATHEMATICS M (SARAWAK) SMK Paku QA

Section A
[45 marks]
Answer all questions in this section.

1 In a box containing 80 light bulbs, 60 are in good condition. Two bulbs are taken
randomly, one after the other, from the box. Find the probability that only one of
the two bulbs taken is in good condition.

(a) If the first bulb is returned into the box. [3 marks]

(b) If the first bulb is not returned into the box. [3 marks]

2 The table below shows the prices of fish and the quantities of it bought by a
housewife at a market in the year 2011 and 2012.

2011 2012 Fish
Price
(RM per kg)
Quantity
(kg)
Price
(RM per kg)
Quantity
(kg)
Parang 11.00 2 12.00 1
Tenggiri 12.00 2 13.00 2
Bawal Putih 10.00 2 a 1
Kembung 8.00 3 10.00 2
Selar Kuning 4.00 5 5.00 6

(a) If the simple aggregate price index increases by 20 % from 2011 to 2012,
determine the value of a. [3 marks]

(b) Calculate the Laspeyres price index, and comment on the housewifes
change in expenditure on fish. [3 marks]


3. A random sample of 24 people were asked to record the number of kilometres
they travelled by car in a given week. The distances, to the nearest kilometres, are
shown below.

67 66 85 93 63 44 87 57
72 77 67 48 66 50 52 74
70 70 41 108 58 74 62 68


(a) Construct a stem-and-leaf diagram to represent these data. [2 marks]

(b) Determine the median and interquartile range of this distribution.
[3 marks]
(c) Draw a box-and-wisker plot for this data. [3 marks]
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4 The probability density function of the time t, in minutes, of a student spends
every morning waiting for bus to school is given by

otherwise
t
t
t
t
t f , 15 5
, 5 0
0
,
75
1
5
1
75
2
) ( <
<

=
(a) Find the cumulative distribution function of T. [4 marks]

(b) Calculate the mean waiting time of the student. [3 marks]



5. The water vapour content, w (in g) per 100 g samples of mud, taken at a depth of
d meters from a river mouth is measured. The results are shown in the table
below.

Depth (d) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Water vapour content (w) 92 80 57 44 32 22 20 17
(a) Plot these data on a scatter diagram [2 marks]

(b) Calculate the Pearsons correlation coefficient for the above data.
[4 marks]
(c) Comment on the relationship between the depth of the mud and the water
vapour content. [2 marks]

6. Unemployed school leavers in the Malaysia (figures in thousands) is tabulated
below.

Year Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4
2010 22 12 110 31
2011 21 26 150 70
2012 50 36 146 110

(a) Find the four-quarter centred moving average for the time series.
[3 marks]
(b) Calculate the seasonal variation using an additive model.
[3 marks]
(d) Use this model to predict unemployed school leavers for the first quarter
of the year 2013. [4 marks]


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Section B
[15 marks]
Answer any one question in this section.

7. Everyday, a bus leaves town A for town B at 0800 hours. The time taken for this
journey is recorded for a certain period. The result are shown in the following
table.
Time (minutes) Frequency
28 25 x 6
29 28 x 12
30 29 x 27
31 30 x 30
32 31 x 18
33 32 x 14
34 33 x 9
35 34 x 4
40 35 x 5
a) Draw a histogram to represent these data. [3 marks]

b) Calculate the median, mean and standard deviation for this data.
[5 marks]
c) Hence, calculate the Pearson coefficient of skewness and comment the
skewness of the distribution. [2 marks]

d) Plot a cumulative frequency curve of the above data. Hence, find the
number of times a bus arrives at town B between 0830 hours and 0836
hours. [5 marks]

8 (a) On average, the number of books read by an adult is 5 books per year. Using
the Poisson distribution, find the probability that
(i) an adult reads exactly 3 books per year, [2 marks]
(ii) an adult reads more than 2 books in 5 years. [2 marks]

(b) The marks obtained by the candidates for a paper in an examination are
distributed normally with mean of 50 and standard deviation 10.
(i) If a candidate must obtain 70 marks to score a distinction for the paper,
find the percentage of candidates who obtained distinctions for this paper
in the examination. [3 marks]
(ii) If 70% of the candidates pass the paper, determine the minimum marks
required to get a passing grade for the paper. [3 marks]

(c) In a group of teachers, the expected number of teachers who own Proton cars
is 8 and the variance is 1.6. Find the probability that
(i) a teacher chosen at random owns a Proton car, [3 marks]
(ii) exactly 4 teachers from the group own Proton cars. [2 marks]
END OF QUESTION PAPER
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6
ANSWER TRIAL STPM MATHEMATICS M (SARAWAK) SMK Paku QA
1





[2M]
[1M]







[2M]
[1M]
2. a) Simple aggregate price index 100
0
=

x
x
n

120 100
4 8 10 12 11
5 10 13 12
=
+ + + +
+ + + + a

a =14
b) Laspeyres Price Index 100
0 0
=

q p
q p
n n

100
) 5 ( 4 ) 3 ( 8 ) 2 ( 10 ) 2 ( 12 ) 2 ( 11
) 5 ( 5 ) 3 ( 10 ) 2 ( 14 ) 2 ( 13 ) 2 ( 12

+ + + +
+ + + +
=
= 120.9
The housewifes expenditure on fish in year 2012 increased by 20.9% when
compared with 2011.




2M

1M



2M

1M
3a)

stem leaf
4 1 4 8
5 0 2 7 8
6 2 3 6 6 7 7 8
7 0 0 2 4 4 7
8 5 7
9 3
10 8






2M
b)




1M

1. a) P(only one of the two bulbs is in good
condition ,replacing the first bulb)
= 2
80
20
80
60

= 0.375

b) P(only one of the two bulbs is in good
condition, with the first bulb not
returned into the box)
= 2
79
20
80
60

= 0.3797
[1M]
Key: 4 1 means 41
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7
67
12
) 24 (
2
1
Median
=
=
=
th
th


5 . 57
2
58 57
6
) 24 (
4
1
Q
1
=
+
=
=
=
th
th

74
18
) 24 (
4
3
Q
3
=
=
=
th
th







1M
c.
75 . 32
) 5 . 57 74 (
2
3
5 . 57
) (
2
3
Q boundary Lower
1 3 1
=
=
= Q Q

75 . 106
) 5 . 57 74 (
2
3
74
) (
2
3
Q boundary Upper
1 3 1
=
=
= Q Q


Outlier = 108







1 M





2M
4a)


Interquartile range =
1 3
Q Q
= 74 -57.5 = 16.5

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8


5.

2M


6 a) Graph
Year Quarter Unemployed 4-quarter Centred 4-quarter Deviation
3M
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9
school
leavers
moving
average
moving average
(t)
(y-t)
2010 1 22
2 12
43.75
3 110 43.625 66.375
43.50
4 31 45.25 -14.250
47.00
2011 1 21 52.00 -31.000
57.00
2 26 61.875 -35.875
66.75
3 150 70.375 79.625
74.00
4 70 75.250 -5.250
76.50
2012 1 50 76.000 -26.000
75.50
2 36 80.500 -44.500
85.50
3 146
4 110

b) seasonal variation
Year Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4
2010 66.375 -14.250
2011 -31.000 -35.875 79.625 -5.250
2012 -26.000 -44.500
Unadjusted
seasonal
variation
-28.500 -40.188 73.000 -9.750
Correction
factor
-1.3595 -1.3595 -1.3595 -1.3595
Seasonal
Variation
-27.14 -38.83 74.36 -8.39


C) The least square method
482
2
=

x 66 =

x 79418
2
=

y 784 =

y 4627 =

xy

12
) 66 (
482
12
) 784 )( 66 (
4629
2

= = 2.664











1M




[1M]
[2M]
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10
|

\
|
=
12
66
664 . 2
12
784
a =50.68
Regression line, y = 50.68+2.664x
For the first quarter of the year 2013,
e
T = 50.68+2.664(13) = 85.312
Unemployed school leavers for the first quarter of the year 2013
=85.312+ (-27.14) = 58.172 59

Or
Average quarterly increment =
7
625 . 43 5 . 80
=5.2679
For the first quarter of the year 2013,
e
T = 80.5 + 3 x 5.2679 = 96.304
Unemployed school leavers for the first quarter of the year 2013
= 96.304 + (-27.14)= 69.164 69


1M
1M

1M


1M

2M

1M

7a Histogram

b) 5 . 62 ) 125 (
2
1
2
1
= = N

minutes 58 . 30 ) 1 (
30
45 ) 125 (
2
1
30
2
1
Median,
=
|

\
|

+ =
|

\
|

+ = c
f
F N
L M
m











2M

x f fx
2
fx
Cumulative
frequency,F
26.5 6 6
28.5 12 18
29.5 27 45
30.5 30 75
31.5 18 93
32.5 14 107
33.5 9 116
34.5 4 120
37.5 5 125

5 . 3861 =

fx 25 . 119905
2
=

fx



89 . 30
125
5 . 3861
, Mean = = =

f
fx
x
220 . 2 ) 89 . 30 (
125
25 . 119905
, Deviation Standard
2
2
= = =

f
fx
f
fx

1M


2M
c. Pearson coefficient of skewness 1M

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11
=
deviation standard
median) 3(mean
= 4189 . 0
2.220
) 58 . 30 3(30.89
=

The distribution is positively skewed or skewing to the right.

1M
7d)
.
The number of times a bus arrives at town B between 0830 hours and 0836
hours = 122-45 = 77






























2M
8a) Let X be the number of books read by an adult
Then, ) 5 (
0
P X
a)
1404 . 0
! 3
) 5 (
) 3 (
3 5
=
= =

e
X P

b) In 5 years, 25 5 5 = =




1M
1M



1M
[
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12
0 . 1
! 2
) 25 (
! 1
) 25 (
! 0
) 25 (
- 1
)] 2 ( ) 1 ( ) 0 ( [ 1 ) 2 (
2 25 1 25 0 25
=
(

+ + =
= + = + = = >

e e e
X P X P X P X P

1M
b)(i)
0.0228
0.9772 - 1
2) P(z - 1
2) P(z
10
50 70
) 70 (
=
=
< =
=
|

\
|
= z P X P

Hence, percentage of candidates = 0.0228 x 100% = 2.28%
(ii)

76 . 44
524 . 0
10
50

0.524 z
0.70 z) P(Z
70 . 0
10
50
70 . 0 ) (
=
=

=
=
=
|

\
|

=
x
x
x
Z P
x X P

Hence, minimum marks required = 45








2M
1M








2M


1M


8c) Expected number, 8 ) ( E = = np x
Variance, Var (x) = npq = 1.6

8
6 . 1
=
np
npq

q = 0.2 p = 0.8 n = 10 ) 8 . 0 , 10 ( X
(i) P( a teacher chosen at random owns a proton car) = 0.8
(ii) P( exactly 4 teachers from the group own Proton cars)
= P(X = 4)
=
4 10 4
4
10
) 2 . 0 ( ) 8 . 0 (

C = 0.005505





2M
1M


2M