Certified Market Professional (CMP) Stock Market Expert (SME) Stock Market for Beginner (SMB) Certified Equity Research Analyst (CERA) Course Introduction 2 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com 3 Beginners finance Capital market Primary market Secondary market Stock trading Macroeconomics 3 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Fundamental research Introduction Qualitative & quantitative factors Financial statement analysis Ratio analysis Valuation Case studies 4 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Derivatives Introduction Futures & forward Option Option premium Option strategies Option greeks Open interest 5 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Technical research Introduction Charts Dow theory Trends Indicators Patterns 6 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Commodity Introduction Market participants Agri commodities Metal commodities Energy commodities Tracking price movements Inter asset relationships 7 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Currency Introduction Economic significance Currency future Macroeconomics Discussion of INR 8 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Introduction What is capital market Market institutions Basic terminology 9 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com What do we mean by Financial Market? 10 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com What is this? 11 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Or this? 12 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com What is a market? An actual or virtual place where forces of demand and supply operate, and where buyers and sellers interact (directly or through intermediaries) to trade goods, services, or contracts or instruments, for money or barter.* In simple terms market is a platform which enables buyers and sellers to interact and transact 13 *Source: businessdictionary.com Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Markets Physical Markets Online Market Telephonic Market Who are the buyers of capital? 15 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Who are the sellers of capital? 16 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com The intermediaries 17 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Overall structure of capital market Buyers Intermediaries Sellers - Entrepreneurs through financial institutions like banks in the form of loan - Entrepreneurs/Corporates in the form of equity from stock market - Entrepreneurs in the form of loan from debt market - Government in the form of loan from debt market - Banks - Banks and other FIs to channelize savings - Exchanges to facilitate equity/debt sale - Brokers to facilitate transaction in stock exchanges - Investment bankers/ merchant bankers to facilitate the complete process - Credit Rating Agencies - Registrar & Transfer Agents, DPs - Retail investors directly - Institutional Investors (Mutual funds, Insurance, PF) as a collective investment scheme) - Banks - Foreign Institutional Investors 18 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com REGULATORS SEBI, RBI, FMC, Govt . Mi ni st r i es et c 19 FINANCIAL MARKET market of capital and credit Capital market Money market relatively long term (greater than one year) short term borrowing (less than one year) Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com What is a financial market? It is a mechanism that allows people to buy and sell (trade) financial securities (such as stocks and bonds), commodities (such as precious metals or agricultural goods), etc. It facilitates - The raising of capital (in the capital markets) The transfer of risk (in the derivatives markets) The transfer of liquidity (in the money markets) International trade (in the currency markets) Interaction between those who want capital to those who have it 20 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Types of financial markets Capital market Equity (Stocks) Debt (Bonds) Equity Debt 21 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Owner of the business with all the risks and rewards of the business An obligation to pay with interest for a specified time. A Basic Loan is the simplest form of Debt Financialisation of Assets Commodities market Currency market Real Estate 22 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Financial markets continued Financialisation of current Assets Financialisation of Risk More to Come.. 23 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Credit Risk, Default Risk (MBO, CDO) Securitization of Car Loan, Home Loan, Recievables CAPITAL MARKET Primary market Secondary market Newly formed securities ex: IPO, Bonds, NCDs issue Existing securities sold by investors Investor Company Investor Investor Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com A quick question Which of the following is the largest market of all? Stocks Bonds Commodities Currency (Forex) 25 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Phases in market Phases in market 27 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Phases in market Bull market When economic indicators point to a healthy and growing economy, companies are making money, future looks good, and people have more money to invest. Bear market When the economy is shrinking, businesses are not making as much money, and people are losing their jobs and have less money left over, stock prices on the whole will be falling. Sideways markets Price movement in the markets are uncertain and there is no established trend to arrive at a conclusion 28 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Market is a jungle 29 The terms "bull" and "bear" to describe the markets comes from the way the animals attack their opponents. A bull thrusts its horns up into the air while a bear swipes its paws down. Thus the terms Bear and Bull are metaphorically used. Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Animals in the capital market Bulls Market participants who have no qualms in buying securities above the prevailing stock prices. Supposed to be aggressive and jack up the prices when the trend is in their favour Bears Market participants who wish that the prices would decline for them to buy. Typically aggressive in battering down prices when the trend supports them Herd Market participants who lap up a trend with very little regard to the fundamental reasons of the trend 30 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Who is the bigger fool? 31 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Behavioral Biases Cognitive Bias Emotional Bias Confirmation Bias Gamblers' Fallacy Status Quo Bias Negativity Bias Loss-Aversion Bias Overconfidence Bias Endowment Bias Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Market capitalization Market capitalization (often market cap) is a measurement of value of a business enterprise which is equal to the share price times the number of shares outstanding (shares that have been authorized, issued, and purchased by investors) So today if you want to purchase a company like Reliance Industries Ltd, what you have to do is to BUY ALL the shares of the company and PAY the market price for each share If Reliance has 100 shares and price per share is Rs.1000, then you will have to shed Rs.1,00,000 to BUY the company 33 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com We use market capitalization to classify the companies in order of their market value: Large Cap: Sensex comprises companies with MCAP > 16,000 crores Mid Cap: Bse Mid Cap Index comprises companies with MCAP of Rs 13,000 -1,000 crores Small Cap: BseSmall Cap Index comprises companies with MCAP < 2,000 crores The rupee amounts used for the classifications, "large cap", mid cap", or "small cap" are only approximations that change over time. Among market participants, their exact definitions may vary Market capitalization contd. Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Large cap 35 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Mid cap 36 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Small cap 37 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Free float market cap Free-float market capitalization takes into consideration only those shares issued by the company that are readily available for trading in the market It generally excludes promoters' holding, government holding, strategic holding and other locked-in shares that will not come to the market for trading in the normal course Thus, if someone wants to buy the Reliance Industry, she can buy only those shares which are freely traded in market and not the ones which Mukesh Ambani holds 38 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Index An Index is simply the barometer of the overall stock market performance It is the report card of all the stock listed on the index which shows the performance of all the stocks 39 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Index computation Let us assume that the day Nifty started, it had only 3 companies with their market price/share, total number of shares and the market cap being- Now assume that a day later based on the market forces, the share prices of all the three companies changes and the new ones are: 40 Company No. of Shares Price / Share Market Cap. Reliance 200 5 1000 Infosys 100 3 300 ICICI 250 2 500 Market Capitalization of Nifty 1800 Company No. of Shares Price / Share Market Cap. Reliance 200 6 1200 Infosys 100 4.5 450 ICICI 250 2.2 550 Market Capitalization of Nifty 2200 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Index Indexing simply means Anchoring or Fixing So what we assume here further is that 1800 is indexed or fixed or assumed to be 1000 This 1800, the value of Index the day it started, is also known as the Base Market Capitalization And so when the market cap of the Index changes to 2200, we get a new Index Value (earlier one being 1000): 1800 is equivalent to : 1000 1 is equivalent to : 1000/1800 2200 is equivalent to : 1000/1800 * 2275 = 1222 41 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Free float market cap weighted index 42 Free Float methodology means that the index will be computed on the market cap represented by openly held market shares of the company only The index will be computed by reducing promoters share from overall market cap of the company. We do it by multiplying the market cap with the free float factor for the company A company might have a higher market cap but with low public holding; it would have a lesser weight in indices e.g. TCS, ONGC and NTPC In case of companies with less promoters holding/strategic holding, market cap and free float market cap would be the same e.g. ITC, ICICI Bank Company Price No. of Shares (crores) Mkt cap (Rs/crore) Free float (%) Free cap (Rs/crore) Index weight (%) ITC 322.7 790 254,992 70% 178494.5 11.18 Reliance 871 324 281,898 55% 155043.9 9.71 Infosys 2955.5 57 169,713 85% 144255.7 9.03 Total 3,093,418 1,597,033 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com WHICH IS LARGEST MARKET CAPITALISATION COMPANY IN INDIA What is circuit breaker In order to control the speculations that is causing the stock or index to enter in a circuit, SEBI has formed rules (different for index and stocks) which help in controlling the situation Exchanges implement on a quarterly basis, the index based market wide circuit breaker system i.e., the percentages are calculated on the closing index value of the quarter The index-based market-wide circuit breaker system applies at 3 stages of the index movement, either way viz. at 10%, 15% and 20% These circuit breakers when triggered, bring about a coordinated trading halt in all equity and equity derivative markets nationwide The market-wide circuit breakers are triggered by movement of either the BSE Sensex or the NSE S&P CNX Nifty, whichever is breached earlier 44 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Circuit breaker contd. The exchange has fixed circuit filters for the Sensex: If the index moves by 10% up/down: Before 1 PM , trading would be halted for one hour Between 1-2:30 PM, trading to be halted for half an hour After 2:30 PM, no halt in trading If in case index moves by 15% up/down: Before 1 pm, trading to be halted for 2 hours Between 1-2 PM, trading to be halted for one hour After 2 PM, trading to be halted for rest of the day In the case of 20% up/down movement in the index, trading to be halted for the rest of the day 45 Circuit breaker 46 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Circuit for individual stocks The reason behind such a move is heavy speculation either about the economy or about a particular stock There are two directions of movement (up and down), therefore there are two types of circuits possible upper circuit and lower circuit If on any day the stock prices increases/decreases by 5 - 20% (% defined by SEBI for each share) of the previous day price, then the stock is said to be in upper/lower circuit A price band is essentially the price range within which a stock is permitted to trade during a day Usually a daily price band of 2%, 5%, 10% , 20% (either way) is applicable on securities No price bands are applicable on: F&O stocks A price band of 20% (either way) on products other than stocks including debentures, preference shares, warrants, etc 47 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com With circuit Circuit view Without circuit 48 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Summary Introduction to the class Financial market Market participants Kinds of Financial Market - Equity/Debt Market phases Market capitalization Indices Free float Circuits 49 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com Thank You 50 Kredent EduEdge Kredent Academy www.kredentacademy.com