5/18/2014 J.

Orasanu
1
Research Panel:
Training for Effective Crew Decision Making
Judith Orasanu
NASA-Ames Research Center
Mail Stop 262-4
Moffett Field, CA 94035-1000
Jorasanu@mail.arc.nasa.gov


Aviation Education 2020 Workshop #2
Monterey, CA J anuary 30, 2001
5/18/2014 Jorasanu 2
Overview of Talk
What does the future hold for pilots in 2020?
Implications for pilot training
Flight Crew Decision Making
Requirements for effective crew decision making
Pilot Decision Making model
How do crews go wrong - 2001?
Training requirements - 2020
5/18/2014 Jorasanu 3
The Future?
Fully automated aircraft (but with a few
oldies but goodies left over?)
Synthetic vision
Free Flight
Automated ATC
Automated flight tools
Distributed decision environments
MORE TRAFFIC!
Less experienced pilots?
5/18/2014 Jorasanu 4
Implications for Pilots?
Role shift - pilots as system managers
Increased Strategic planning + Tactical
decision making
BUT, still need to maintain
Stick and rudder skills
Steam gauge knowledge?
Distributed decision making
ATC
Dispatch
Other pilots
5/18/2014 Jorasanu 5
Flight Crew Decision Making


What is EFFECTIVE Decision Making - 2001?

Decision that leads to best TASK performance
Under the given circumstances
At lowest cost
Performance = Accomplish mission
Maximize safety
Minimize risk
Passenger satisfaction, meet company goals
Costs: Time, Fuel, Cognitive Effort, System Efficiency
5/18/2014 Jorasanu 6
Ingredients for Effective DM
Good Information
Sufficient Knowledge
Appropriate Cognitive and Metacognitive
Processes
Good Crew Processes
Environment

Events Conditions Constraints
Cues
Situation
Assessment
Diagnose problem
Time available
Assess risk
Type?
Severity?
Immediate/
Potential

Choose
Action
Goals
Procedural
Adaptive/choice
Creative
Goals
Evaluate
Demands
On Crew
Resources to
Meet Demands
Task
Management
5/18/2014 Jorasanu 8
How Do Crews Go Wrong?
Incorrectly assess the situation = Solve
the wrong problem!

Understand the problem, but make
inappropriate decision
5/18/2014 Jorasanu 9
Decision Errors
FACT: 2/3 crew-related Pt. 121 accidents involved
tactical decision errors (NTSB, 1994)
-- 3/4 involved monitoring/challenging errors
QuickTime and a Graphics decompressor are needed to see this picture.

Proc T D E A/C
Handling
Sit Aware Comm Sys Op Res Mgmt Nav Mon/Chal
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
P
e
r
c
e
n
t

o
f

T
o
t
a
l

E
r
r
o
r
s
Type of Error
Primary Secondary
5/18/2014 Jorasanu 10
Plan Continuation Errors
Decision to continue with an original plan
in the face of cues that indicate
Conditions have changed
Plan revision might be prudent

38/51 (75%) of all decision errors in 37 Pt.
121 accidents involved PCE (NTSB, 1994)
QuickTime and a Graphics decompressor are needed to see this picture.

Gate/Taxi Takeoff Cruise Approach Landing
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

o
f

T
o
t
a
l

E
r
r
o
r
s

(
N

=

5
1
)
Phase of Fl i ght
7.8
3.9
7.8
9.8
7.8 7.8
21.6
3.9
29.4
0
Plan Cont. Errors
Non-Plan Cont. Errors
Di st ri but i on of Deci si on Errors
in 37 flightcrew-involved accidents studied by the NTSB (1994)
5/18/2014 Jorasanu 12
Underestimate risk
Overestimate own or aircraft ability
Fail to update dynamic situation model
Social/organizational pressures
Poor information
Misinterpret cues
Habit capture - stress
Plan Continuation Errors-Why?
5/18/2014 Jorasanu 13
Training Requirements
Knowledge
Mental Models of the System, Automation, Environment,
Weather, Crew Roles, ATC
Strategies
Situation Assessment
Diagnosis
Time
Risk
Action Decision
Evaluate through mental simulation
Metacognitive Skills
Manage tasks and resources
Crew Skills
Communication & coordination

5/18/2014 Jorasanu 14
Summary
Computer skills will be important as TOOLS
for making effective DECISIONS

Decision environment will be more
distributed, therefore will require effective
teamwork and communication

Flight management --> Safety management