2 Introduction: This report is a strategic assessment of the future of Cuba after the death of Fidel Castro the current leader of the Republic of Cuba. While Fidel Castro is no longer the president of Cuba he is still the Secretary of the Communist Party and as such still holds much power over decision-making. 1 However, once he dies, his brother Ral Castro will assume the position of Secretary of the Communist Party in addition to the presidency, which he currently holds. By assuming both these positions, Ral Castro will be in the same position that Fidel Castro was in for fifty years as total dictator of Cuba. The most important question here is what kind of dictator will Ral Castro be? 2 This assessment will deal with the four most probable scenarios of what Ral Castros leadership will be like. Each scenario will be described in detail. Then, it will go on to explain possible courses of action the U.S. could take in response to each scenario in order to best protect its interests as well as to attempt to better its relations with Cuba. This assessment is written so as to be used by any administration and as such is not written with specific policies of a certain president. It is written to be a tool for whoever is in power at the time that it becomes necessary to address the issue. It is unknowable at what point in time this will occur, whether it will be immediately following Fidel Castros death, or at some time farther into the future after the situation in Cuba has progressed some. The scenarios posited by this paper deal with situations
2 Catan, Thomas. "Who Is Raul Castro, Cuba's New Leader? - Times Online." The Times | UK News, World News and Opinion. 19 Feb. 2008. Web. 27 Feb. 2011. <http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article3396201.ece?toke n=null&offset=0&page=1>. 3 immediately after the death of Fidel Castro as well as situations after the death of his brother Ral Castro as this is also probable in the near future. Scenario One: The first and most immediate scenario for leadership after Fidel Castro is for his younger brother Ral Castro to become Cubas long-term president. Fidel Castro has stepped down from his position due to illness, his brother being his first choice as successor. Ral Castro has been in power since 2008, and has so far indicated that he follows the same foreign policy understanding as his older brother. Ral Castro, so far, has not been an ally to the United States. First off, Ral Castro has a significant history within the political realm of Cuba. He was active in the revolution led by Fidel against Batista. Even in college, he was a member of a communist youth group. Ral Castro differs from his brother in that he is much the military veteran. Still to this day he is the top-ranking general in the country. Besides being the acting President, he is also the Commander in Chief of Armed Forces, as well as having held many other positions in the past such as 24 th Secretary General of Non-Aligned Movement, First Vice President of Cuba, and Second Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba. Ral Castro is said to lack his brothers charisma and gift for public speaking. As far as his plans for the future, we must make educated guesses as to what he foresees for his country. Ral Castro has worked by Fidel Castros side diligently so we must be prepared to have to work with the same ideals Fidel had, as well as policies. After a sickness scare in 1997, Fidel hinted at his younger brothers leadership capabilities 4 famously saying, Behind me are others more radical than I. Fidel Castros words are not to be taken lightly. In 2008, Spain, which has a policy of constructive engagement towards Cuba, responded to news of Fidel's retirement by urging Ral to take on his reform project with a greater capacity, toughness and confidence. 3
While he has been opening the economy of Cuba, Ral Castro has also stated that structural changes are long over due. Immediately after gaining power he chose an unpopular candidate to serve as his vice president, Jos Ramn Machado Ventura, while also appointing widely unknown army officials to high positions. 4
As far as relations with the United States, Ral Castro is almost unpredictable. He stated in an interview with the Huffington Post in 2008, The American people are among our closest neighbors. We should respect each other. We have never held anything against the American people. Good relations would be mutually advantageous. Perhaps we cannot solve all of our problems, but we can solve a good many of them 5 . During the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election, Ral Castro openly offered his support for President Obama, stating former Senator Obama fills me with a sense of hope for
3 "Profile: Raul Castro." BBC News | News Front Page. 24 Feb. 2008. Web. 25 Feb. 2011. <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/5234790.stm>.
5 Penn, Sean. "Mountain of Snakes." Huffington Post. 30 Nov. 2008. Web. 25 Feb. 2011. <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sean-penn/mountain-of- snakes_b_146765.html>.
5 positive change in the relations between our countries. 6 In the same instance, he compared then Senator Obama to the former Soviet Unions infamous Stalin, to be taken as a complement. Ral expressed his willingness to meet with Obama, and Obama expressed likewise. While this has yet to happen, Obama has met with Venezuelas Hugo Chavez, a known ally of Cuba. While Venezuela supplies arguably eleven percent of the United States oil, it is known to trade resources and professionals with Cuba. Venezuela has finished a thousand mile Internet cable to Cuba, which only serves to solidify the nations close relationship as of early 2011. Former U.S. intelligence head John Negroponte announced in 2006 the creation of a mission to specifically oversee Venezuela-Cuba relations. Negroponte may prove to be a welcome informer, seeing as he was active during the program used to try to infiltrate the Venezuelan government, including training for political organizing, as well as voter education. 7 Now acting head of intelligence, David C. Gompert will be extremely valued, seeing as he is the author of Cuba After Castro: Legacies, Challenges, and Impediments. In addition, in March of 2010 Ann Louise Bardach, author of Without Fidel: A Death Foretold in Miami, Havana, and Washington and close correspondent with the Castro family, expressed the uncertainty of Chavez and Ral Castros relationship: Ral and the [Cuban] army are a little worried about ChvezThey regard him as a man who lacks discipline and whose mood swings heavily affect Cuba. Ral
7 Whitney, W. T. "CIA Spins Spider's Web vs. Cuba and Venezuela." SpinWatch. 21 Sept. 2006. Web. 25 Feb. 2011. <http://spinwatch.org/-news-by-category- mainmenu-9/271-propaganda/3475-cia-spins-spiders-web-vs-cuba-and- venezuela>.
6 [recently sent (Ramiro) Valds] to Hugo Chvez to serve as Chvez's Cuban baby sitterCuba is surviving on the 100,000 barrels of oil they get every day from Chvez. 8
The relationship between these two countries is incredibly co-dependent, and a result of Fidel Castro and Chavezs close relationship. Without Fidel, Venezuela and Cuba may not continue their friendship. As of February 25, 2011 oil companies around the world have been vying for a contract with Cuba. Spains RepsolNorways Statoil, Indias ONGC, Russias Gazprom, Brazils Petrobras and, according to sources at Cuban oil company Cupet, Chinas CNPC are also vying for Cuban licenses. 9
A recent U.S. bill has been brought to the table, stating that any country that gets a license with Cuba loses its business rights with the United States. Republican Congressman of Florida Vern Buchanan worries that if there were to be an oil spill it would heavily affect America and Cuba would not have the resources to clean it up. This bill is very risky. Russia, for example, is already in support of Ral Castro, having just met with him, and China is always the first to express interest in an oil deal. Theres no guarantee that this bill will scare off the other countries, seeing as not every country relies on the United States for business. Oil comes first. If this bill passes, it will be a
9 Schipani, Andres. "US Bill to Bar Oil Groups with Cuba Links." Financial Times. 25 Feb. 2011. Web. 25 Feb. 2011. <http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cdf8d4b4-4060-11e0- 9140-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1F2rf23zK>.
7 determining factor in our relationship with Cuba simply because it will imply that the United States would rather cut off all business transactions with the world, than come to some compromise with Cuba. With Ral Castro continuing the communist regime of Cuba, we must study previous interactions with Fidel as well as work more proactively to halt further communist advances in Cuba. We must also take into consideration the fact that Ral Castro has many years of military experience and may use that to his ultimate advantage as will be discussed in the second scenario. Our best option is to try to reach out to Cuba and extend an invitation to meet directly with Ral. Without Fidel Castro, the United States may be able to influence Ral Castro seeing as both of our countries have had economic woes and may be able to help each other. The Cuban Democracy Act of 1992 is far outdated, and it may be time to revise it realistically and in the interest of the United States.
8
Scenario Two: Ral Castro is known to be making changes. He is ever the pragmatist and realizes that strict communism and government control are no longer working in Cuba. He knows that people cannot survive on government wages and is more open to economic reforms than his brother. Ral Castro is already in every position of power except the strongest one there is: Secretary of the Communist Party. That position is still held by his brother who claims to still hold sway in decision making. However, once Fidel Castro passes, it is obvious, barring completely unforeseen events, that Ral Castro will take up this mantle as well. Once that happens, he is in a position to make all the economic reforms he pleases, but all in the name and hope of continuing communism in Cuba. There is a major problem however with Ral Castros pragmatism. In his fervor of economic reform, he has incited a split between the Raulistas and Fidelistas. 10
Fidelistas are those hardliners who dont want to see any relaxation of government policies for fear that it will give the people too much freedom and encourage revolt. These Fidel loyalists are a large part of the government and without Fidel there to calm their worries, a schism could occur. Ral Castro is not the ringleader his brother was. Lacking the same charisma and personality, he prefers to work behind the scenes and not be in the public eye. Without Fidel Castros winning personality to keep his loyalists in check it is quite possible that
10 Catan, Thomas. "Who Is Raul Castro, Cuba's New Leader? - Times Online." The Times | UK News, World News and Opinion. 19 Feb. 2008. Web. 27 Feb. 2011. <http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article3396201.ece?toke n=null&offset=0&page=1>. 9 Ral Castro will have to deal with an insurrection, not from the Cuban people, but from his own party officials who think he is no longer adhering to communist doctrine. Before assuming the mantle of president, Ral Castro was still a big player in Cuban politics, but behind the scenes as the de facto head of the military and defense minister. While no longer defense minister, he is now officially Commander-In-Chief of the armed forces. The Cuban military was formed first in the Sierra Maestra mountains during the days of the revolution as a militia that fought with guerilla tactics to bring down Batista. This same guerilla force was transformed into a legitimate army under the careful molding of Ral Castro. This was the military that had dealings in both Angola and Ethiopia during the 1970s and is still a considerable force for Cuba considering the countrys size. The military is one of the smoothest operating government institutions in Cuba. It works efficiently and masterfully under the careful hand of Raul Castro. Raul has always been a military man rather than a politician and he continues to show this trend in his assumption of the presidency and the changes he has applied. He has created a functional cabinet for the presidency and surrounded himself with advisors. Fidel Castro was disinclined to use advisors and preferred to make important decisions himself. However, Ral has replaced the few advisors he did use with unknowns from the military. 11
If Rals power were to be threatened by hardline communists from within the party the most probable action he would take would be to inundate the party with military men or just cease the function of the party all together. Either of these options would turn
11 Reuters. "Raul Castro Consolidates Power in Cuba." National Post | Canadian News, Financial News and Opinion. Web. 26 Feb. 2011. <http://www.nationalpost.com/news/world/story.html?id=123f865d-e0f1-4d78- 812a-64f44b60c0c9&k=20897>. 10 the country into a military regime either functionally or literally. While military regimes tend to have the connotations of being extremely repressive and on the farthest end of the spectrum of absolute dictators, it is highly probable that this regime would actually be more open and willing to compromise than the regime preceding it. This has important implications for relations with the U.S. The U.S. has been stonewalling Cuba because of its communism. A harsh trade embargo has continued to be imposed by the U.S. even after the Cold War ended and the threat from communism was no longer nuclear. The hope in continuing this embargo was to crush the Cuban economy and force communism asunder. However, Cuba has found supporters such as Venezuela and Russia to bolster its economy and prevent debilitation. While the embargo has been loosened slightly, it would be helpful to loosen it more. The U.S. would not be seen as weak for trying to negotiate with the new Cuba. It would be best if negotiation could occur while it was still communist but if necessary, the U.S. should not shy away from attempting diplomacy with a military Cuba. The military is one of the best working institutions in Cuba and if the entire country were to be run by it, there is a high chance of success in the endeavor. However, it would also lead to a rougher transfer of power after Ral Castro and it is at a time like this where it would be beneficial for the U.S. to have established diplomatic relations in order to make an effort to assist in the transfer of power and avoid general turmoil. The main goal of the U.S. should be to avoid having to deal with a Cuban military regime, as well as evade unrest and disturbance in the country. It would be against U.S. interests for there to be unrest as it could lead to another mass exodus of Cubans to U.S. soil. These Cubans would have to be granted permission to stay due to the wet foot, dry 11 foot policy which says once Cubans reach American soil they are allowed to stay. 12
Another mass exodus would be a problem because there are only 20,000 Cuban visas allowed a year. An inundation of Cuban refugees onto U.S. soil is one more immigration problem that the U.S. does not need; it could be a make or break issue for an administration especially if close to election time. Thus, it is vital that the U.S. establish diplomatic relations with Cuba in order to be able to assist in case of upheaval.
12 "Wet-Foot Dry-Foot Policy." United States Immigration: Green Card, Visas and U.S. Citizenship. 2010. Web. 27 Feb. 2011. <http://www.usimmigrationsupport.org/wetfoot-dryfoot.html>. 12 Scenario 3
The third scenario, that could happen sooner than anticipated, involves the death of President Ral Castro. Being seventy-nine years old, his health may begin to deteriorate soon meaning that he will need to elect a successor. In the fashion of his brother, Ral Castro may be anxious to keep Cuba under the Castro rule. One of his most likely options as successor is his son Alejandro Castro Espn. Now when Fidel Castro appointed Ral Castro as potential successor in 1997, he stated that the First Vice President of Cuba would always be the next in line to the presidency. Ral Castro appointed Jos Ramn Machado Ventura as his Vice President, an extremely unpopular Cuban poltitcian. Realistically, Ral Castro is most likely to overrule this law in favor of his right-hand man, and son. Alejandro Castro is not just a familial choice, but also a highly qualified candidate. Both he and Fidel Castros son Antonio Castro Sotto del Valle are being primed for the presidency. Ral Castros son however shows more promise. First of all, he is a military colonel. He was active in the Angolan Civil War, a war that kept the United States from coming to peace terms with Cuba. An engineer, Alejandro Castro also has a masters in international relations. He is currently personal assistant to the President. As Cuban dissident Guillermo Farias notes, ministers no longer meet with Ral. They meet with Alejandro as a sort of chief of staff. 13 Less than fifty years old,
13 Oppenheimer, Andres. "After Fidel and Ral, Alejandro and Antonio?" Miami Herald. 4 Aug. 2010. Web. 26 Feb. 2011. <http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/04/08/1568500/after-fidel-and-raul- alejandro.html>.
13 Alejandro is a long-term candidate for his fathers replacement. 14
Alejandro Castro is no stranger to U.S. relations either. In fact, although he may be willing to meet with us, he may also pose a threat. His book, The Reign of Terror, focuses on the U.S. involvement in Cuba. The Cuban Interior Ministry, a government affiliation, published this work of non-fiction. He also has his ties in the Cuban press, producing various articles sporadically. His power in the press makes him a notable figure for the Cuban population, and makes his opinions accessible. In his article State Terrorism in Cuba (I) his anti-American feelings are laid out in a long and thoughtful history of how the American Presidents have tried to infiltrate Cuba. 15
While Ral Castros son is well known in Cuba, information on him is hard to come by. One position of his that must be monitored is his role in the intelligence exchange with China. 16 He has been included in many of the Presidents projects. The liberal online Cuban newspaper, Havana Times, stresses how Alejandro Castro may be entering Cuban politics at a time where capitalism is becoming favorable. With Ral Castros hiring of unknowns instead of elites, there is a fear the elites will do whatever it takes to get back into power. Whether Alejandro Castro will be able to handle that or not remains to be seen. This is an angle that we should look into as a possible in.
14 "Old Man Putting the Brakes." Cubapolidata. 22 Sept. 2010. Web. 26 Feb. 2011. <http://cubapolidata.com/2010/09/22/old-man-putting-the-brakes/>.
15 Espin, Alejandro C. "El Terrorismo De Estado Contra Cuba (I)." Cuba Debate. 2 June 2005. Web. 26 Feb. 2011. <http://www.cubadebate.cu/opinion/2005/06/02/el- terrorismo-de-estado-contra-cuba-i/>.
16 "Cuba Facts." Cuba Transition Project. University of Miami, Apr. 2008. Web. 26 Feb. 2011. <http://ctp.iccas.miami.edu/FACTS_Web/Cuba%20Facts%20Issue%2039%20Ap ril.htm>.
14 Well-known anti-communist writer Carlos Alberto Montaner states that future Castros will have trouble because they will be missing the institution of fear and the convenience of the dominant class that fears losing privileges and even their own lives if they survive a radical change. 17 While Alejandro Castro is most likely to continue his familys communist legacy, if he comes to power, it may be possible for the United States to intervene. To summarize, Alejandro is a young and extremely well educated presidential candidate. He has power in the press and military. He lacks the charisma of Fidel as well as the support of the Cuban elites. 18 While we dont know how much involvement Alejandro has had with Chavez, we can assume he will use Venezuela to his advantage. We have yet to see whether Cubas close relationship with Venezuela will die along with Fidel. Alejandro Castro may not be one to negotiate with, but if put in power, we may be able to infiltrate his regime.
18 "Alejandro Castro Espn: Un Fin De Raza." Intereconomia. 18 July 2010. Web. 26 Feb. 2011. <http://www.intereconomia.com/noticias- gaceta/internacional/alejandro-castro-espin-fin-raza>.
15 Scenario Four: After the death of Ral Castro, his son Alejandro Castro Espn as well as Fidel Castros son Antonio Castro Soto de Valle will be brought to power. 19 However, it is possible that this power shift will be too much for the Cuban people. The dramatic change from Fidel Castro, through his brother Ral, and quickly to a completely new generation of Castros would be the most political change that Cuba has seen in nearly fifty years. It is possible that during this political change, the legitimacy of the Castro regime could be lost, both to the Cuban people as well as the Communist Party officials. Both Antonio Castro and Alejandro Castro are under the age of fifty, a huge difference from most of the upper level party officials. People who would wish to exploit it could witness this youth as a threat by party officials and as weakness. Those within the Communist Party who would frown upon the youth of the younger Castros would most likely show discontent. However, if the power transfer between Ral Castro and his son Alejandro Castro Espn is smooth enough there would not be much that part officials could do to wrest power from Alejandro Castro. However, even discontent among the ruling elites with their ruler could be enough to ignite the powder keg that is Cuban politics. The spark to set off this reaction would have to come from the people. In order for people to mass they have to have a leader to follow. While many people get arrested in
19 Oppenheimer, Andres. "After Fidel and Ral, Alejandro and Antonio?" Miami Herald. 4 Aug. 2010. Web. 26 Feb. 2011. <http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/04/08/1568500/after-fidel-and-raul- alejandro.html>.
16 Cuba every year for not being sympathetic to the government, there are few people who are radical enough to lead a revolt against the more than fifty-year-old communist regime. But there are a select few dissidents who could be looked to in the future to try and mass people to fight the communist power. It is likely that this movement would start small, with dissidents asking for things like more democratic rights rather than a complete change of government. However, granting these requests to dissidents would be seen as a slippery slope by those in power and would probably be avoided. If concessions were made, it would lead to more dramatic requests from the dissidents, which could in turn be met with reprisal by the government. If concessions are avoided, it would lead to more dramatic protests from the dissidents and still reprisal from the government. One man who is likely to figure heavily into Cuban politics once the elder Castros have passed is Guillermo Farias. He is already a political figure in Cuba and has been arrested multiple times for opposing the Cuban dictatorship. He was awarded Sakharov prize, a prestigious human rights award, by the European Union in 2010 He has led multiple hunger strikes and always makes modest demands. 20 The most recent hunger strike as of February 2011 was led with minimal demands: that they release 26 prisoners of conscience who are dying in Cuban jails, and who the regime's own military doctors are saying need urgent attention. 21 It is highly likely that Farias will become even
20 Illmer, Andreas, and David Levitz. "EU Awards Cuban Dissident Guillermo Farinas Top Human Rights Prize | Europe | Deutsche Welle | 21.10.2010." Home | Deutsche Welle. 21 Oct. 2010. Web. 24 Feb. 2011. <http://www.dw- world.de/dw/article/0,,6134427,00.html>. 21 Oppenheimer, Andres. "After Fidel and Ral, Alejandro and Antonio?" Miami Herald. 4 Aug. 2010. Web. 26 Feb. 2011. <http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/04/08/1568500/after-fidel-and-raul- 17 more politically active once the elder Castros are completely out of power. He said in an interview with the Miami Herald in 2010 that no changes could be made while Ral and Fidel Castro are around as they have their hands soaked in blood. However he also said: This is a family dynasty. They are preparing Col. Alejandro Castro Espn and Dr. Antonio Castro Soto del Valle to take power. None of them has their hands soaked in blood. Therefore, they could start trying to make changes.'' 22
Farias is hopeful for the younger generation of Castros and will most probably attempt changes once they are in power. He is an important political figure to watch, as he is very likely to lead a movement against the regime that could cause turmoil. Another man who is likely to cause political unrest when he gets a chance is Oswaldo Pay. He is the leader of the Christian Liberation Movement and has been arrested for protesting for human rights. He has also been very vocal about the current regimes oppression and is a political figure worldwide. He has been nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize for his work in Cuba. 23 He is the most likely candidate for a leader of a popular, yet hopefully peaceful, uprising against the government. Lastly, a strong base of support for these uprisings will come from the Damas de Blanco, the Ladies in White. These women are a group of Cubans who fight for the
alejandro.html>.
22 Oppenheimer, Andres. "After Fidel and Ral, Alejandro and Antonio?" Miami Herald. 4 Aug. 2010. Web. 26 Feb. 2011. <http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/04/08/1568500/after-fidel-and-raul- 23 "Oswaldo Paya Nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize - Cuba Politics News - Havana Journal."Havana Cuba Business Culture Politics and Travel News and Information. 18 Mar. 2010. Web. 27 Feb. 2011. <http://havanajournal.com/politics/entry/oswaldo-paya-nominated-for-the-nobel- peace-prize-318/>. 18 liberation of their incarcerated loved ones. 24 They are a strong political group and have worked with Guillermo Farias. This scenario is probably the most unlikely of the four that have been proposed. However, it is also the most important due to the fact that it still is possible. If this scenario were to come about it would be the most potentially damaging to the United States. This scenario would lead to unrest within Cuba. Even if Cuba were to become more democratic, states that are democratizing are highly more likely to become entangled in conflicts, including war, than states that are stable democracies or authoritarian regimes. 25 However, once this process is started, it is difficult to reverse as well. As soon as there is a beginning in power shifts, it would be highly advantageous for the U.S. to keep an incredibly close eye on Cuba. The best way to do this would be to establish diplomatic relations with the new Cuban leaders in order to be a vested power in the Cuban political system. This would be advantageous because then the U.S. would be in a position to encourage the Cuban government to negotiate with the dissidents rather than act oppressively. Oppressive action is often a further incentive for protesters and leads to further unrest, the exact thing the U.S. is trying to avoid. Thus, the U.S. cannot wait for Cuba to stop being communist. The current policy states that the United States will not have diplomatic relations with Cuba as long as it remains a communist regime. However, it is vital that the U.S. abandon this policy. If the U.S. waits for the communist
24 "Las Damas De Blanco." Las Damas De Blanco. Web. 27 Feb. 2011. <http://www.damasdeblanco.com/>. 25 Mansfield, Edward D., and Jack Snyder. "Democratization and War." Conflict after the Cold War: Arguments on Causes of War and Peace. By Richard K. Betts. New York: Pearson Longman, 2008. 347-59. Print. 19 regime to topple, it will have a functional disaster on its border and most probably an influx of immigrants into Florida. All these things are contrary to U.S. interests. It is necessary that the U.S. negotiate with Cuba now and in the near future rather than waiting for some obscure point in the future when Cuba has degenerated into strife.
Conclusion
Cuba is a very important and often all too neglected border country to the United States. Cuba never makes the agenda of a president running for office and most people never even bother to think about Cuba. The farthest they go is to say Well its communist and therefore we dont trade with them. However, very few people ever think how out of date the embargo is, and how vital it is that we start paying much closer attention to Cuba. For a country that has hardly changed in nearly fifty years, Cuba is going through rapid political change at the time this assessment is being written. It has recently changed presidents for the first time since Fidel Castro came to power. It is likely that another presidential change will occur before the next decade comes to a close. Now is the time that the United States needs to start paying attention to Cuba. Now is the time that it is necessary for new attempts to be made at peace between these nations. Without consideration for Cuba, the U.S. will be left with an unstable country on its border. This assessment has been written in order to lay out the most possible scenarios for the future of Cuba in order that any presidential administration can begin to develop a plan of action for how to deal with Cuba.