Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
| DECEMBER 5, 2005
T H E W E E K O F D E C E M B E R 5, 20 05
OCBC
194
PUBLISHER
The Edge Publishing Pte Ltd
150, Cecil Street #13-00
Singapore 069543
| (65) 6232 8622
| (65) 6232 8620
E-MAIL | theedgespore@bizedge.com
WEBSITE | http://www.theedgesingapore.com
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FAX
hotlinespore@bizedge.com
OCBC chairman Dr Cheong Choong
Kong with some of the 60 children
at the banks Christmas party for
the Singapore Childrens Society at
OCBC Centre last Thursday. A year
ago, OCBC Bank adopted the
Singapore Childrens Society as its
official charity and, for the next five
years, the bank will donate a total
of $2.5 million to the society.
EDITORIAL
EDITOR/REGIONAL MANAGING DIRECTOR |
(bktan@bizedge.com)
EDITOR AT LARGE | Ho Kay Tat (hktat@bizedge.com)
CONSULTING EDITOR | Assif Shameen (assif.shameen@bizedge.com)
ASSOCIATE EDITOR | Ben Paul (benjamin.paul@bizedge.com)
SECTION EDITORS | capital markets + companies |
Sunita Sue Leng (sunita.sueleng@bizedge.com)
city + country | Cecilia Chow
(cecilia.chow@bizedge.com)
options | Audrey Simon
(audrey.simon@bizedge.com)
SENIOR WRITERS | Kelvin Tan (kelvin.tan@bizedge.com)
Goola Warden (goola.warden@bizedge.com)
Francis Tan (francis.tan@bizedge.com)
STAFF WRITERS | Denise Wee (denise.wee@bizedge.com)
Rosana Gulzar (rosana.mohd@bizedge.com)
Audrina Gan (audrina.gan@bizedge.com)
Chan Chao Peh (chaopeh.chan@bizedge.com)
SENIOR PHOTOJOURNALIST |
PHOTOJOURNALIST | Shirley
COLUMNISTS |
PICTURES: BLOOMBERG
SHOWA DENKO
COPY-EDITING DESK
DESIGN DESK
PRE-PRESS DESK
ADVERTISING+MARKETING
REGIONAL GENERAL MANAGER | Edward Stanislaus (edward@bizedge.com)
MANAGERS | T Shanmugaratnam (t.shan@bizedge.com);
Colin Tan (colin.tan@bizedge.com);
Simon Wong (simon.wong@bizedge.com)
Wendi Yang (wendi.yang@bizedge.com)
COORDINATOR | Sumi Ateck (sumi.ateck@bizedge.com)
CIRCULATION+SUBSCRIPTIONS
Demonstrating the partnership between Singapore, Japan and Showa Denko: (From left) Kengo Yokota, managing
director, Showa Denko HD Singapore Pte Ltd; Koji Shimizugawa, senior managing director, Takenaka Corp; Teo Ming
Kian, chairman, Economic Development Board; Mitsuo Ohashi, representative director and chairman of the board of
directors, Showa Denko K K; Chong Lit Cheong, CEO, JTC Corp; and Shinji Sakai, director, Showa Denko K K.
FINANCE+HUMAN RESOURCE+ADMINISTRATION
ASSISTANT MANAGER
| Tracy Wang
P R INTER
KHL Printing Co Pte Ltd
57, Loyang Drive, Singapore 508968
PHONE | (65) 6543 2222 FAX | (65) 6545 3333
CHANGE OF ADDRESS
Please inform us of any change in your office or home address
via fax: (65) 6232 8630 or e-mail: hotlinespore@bizedge.com
Jorma Ollila, chairman and CEO of Nokia Oyj, waiting for the
start of Nokia Capital Market Days last Thursday, in New York.
Nokia Oyj, the worlds largest maker of mobile phones, forecast
industry handset sales to rise more than 10% next year, helped
by high-end phones and more subscribers.
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3/12/05, 12:41 am
4 THEEDGE SINGAPORE
| DECEMBER 5, 2005
ECONOMICS WATCH
| BY SHAMIM ADAM |
D
BLOOMBERG
measuring the electronics industry also expanded at a faster pace. The sub-index rose
1.3 points to 55.4 as new orders in domestic
and overseas markets increased. The median
forecast in the Bloomberg survey was for a
reading of 54.4.
Export orders expanded in November after a contraction the month before. The index
for new export orders gained 2.3 points to
50.9. The sub-index for new electronics export orders also reverted to growth, gaining
6.9 points to 56.2.
The index for production, an indicator
of current factory output, gained 4.6 points
to 56.8 last month. The sub-index of electronics production rose 3.5 points to expand
at 62.4.
The overall employment index rose 1.2
points to 51.5. The sub-index of electronics
sector employment gained 0.6 point to expand at 50.3, after contracting in October
for the first time in five months.
E
Bloomberg LP
DESTINATION
NO
(000)
Sept
6,574
8.3
14.6
Australia
China*
Hong Kong**
Japan
Malaysia
Thailand***
Sept 3,961
Sept 14,943
Sept 7,408
Sept 5,081
July 9,485
April 3,500
7.3
24.0
15.3
9.1
4
-9.5
13.7
100.4
16
42.2
62.5
5.9
Total***
YEAR
THRU
Singapore
Sept 58,789
10.7
Singapores factories
keep pumpin it up
43.3
Occupancy (%)
84
Average room rate ($) 113
5
20
85
202
7
23
73
234
An average room rate is the result of total room revenue divided by the number of hotel rooms occupied
*Points for occupancy **No comparison with 2004
Shipping containers at the Singapore harbour. The government is counting on a rebound in electronics
shipments and increased pharmaceuticals production to achieve growth of around 5% this year.
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3/12/05, 12:54 am
2
15
CITYWIDE**
81
164
Table 1
8 THEEDGE SINGAPORE
| DECEMBER 5, 2005
CORPORATE
Dressing up Malaysians
Second Chance eyes at least 50 apparel retail outlets across the Causeway in five years
| BY CHAN CHAO PEH |
Pay by Giro
While keeping some units for its retail business,
Second Chance rents most of them to tenants
like banks DBS and Standard Chartered, and
clothing retailers Giordano, Bossini and Hang
Ten. Salleh points out that they are reputable
companies that carry hardly any risk of defaulting on payments. We dont have to worry nor
ask for rent. Every month, they send it by Giro,
says Salleh in an interview with The Edge Sin-
Sm_8_S194.pmd
BUILDING
ADDRESS
City Plaza
810 Geylang Road (Units 01-45, 01-46, 01-60, 01-61, 01-56/57, 01-47, 01-81,
01-107, 01-105, 01-43/44, 02-51, 02-86/88, 02-105-108, 02-50, 02-81/82)
14 Scotts Road (Units 02-40, 02-42)
111 North Bridge Road (Units 01-28, 01-29, 01-38, 01-44, 01-45A/B)
304 Orchard Road (Units 01-56/57/58/59)
1 Park Road (Unit 01-32/33)
Jalan Ampang, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (Lots 1.80, 1.81, 1.82)
2.12.05, 9:05 pm
SPONSORED STATEMENT
In UPS we trust
AV equipment retailer lets customers shop online
with confidence via UPS Exchange CollectSM
The solution came in the form of UPSs Exchange CollectSM, which enables Expandore to
n the world of e-commerce, trust is offer an alternative payment method to cusdefinitely a two-way street. While an tomers that is fast, secure and simple. UPS Exonline seller takes a risk by under- change CollectSM offers an electronic financial
taking to deliver goods to overseas settlement option which gives full visibility of
buyers who may not pay, the buyer goods and funds during each step of the transtoo has to take a leap of faith because he is action, enabling sellers to quickly receive paynot familiar with the credibility of the said ven- ment for their goods. UPS acts as a trusted
dor. And for small, online vendors of goods third party to collect the funds from the importand services to overseas buyers, a higher de- er prior to shipment delivery and pays the exgree of trust must be established between the porter only upon delivery. A major advantage
parties before a transaction can take place.
of this service comes from the trusted and reExpandore Electronics, a Singapore-based liable brand name of UPS, which legitimises
supplier of cutting-edge broadcast and elec- the arrangement for both sides.
tronic equipment since 1994, faced such a
Prospective customers recognise UPS as a
challenge when it decided to expand its dis- global and trusted brand that provides relitribution network via eable delivery services. With
commerce and establish itthe option of using UPS Exself as a preferred worldchange CollectSM, customwide supplier. As a small
ers are assured of an easy
and medium-sized enterand secure way of managprise (SME), Expandore
ing financial transactions
had no way of knowing if
for online purchases.
its potential buyers from
On top of the security
abroad were genuine, so it
provided by UPS, buyers
risked delivering goods to
around the world are also
a buyer who could delay or
notified of the transition of
not pay. And its just one
their purchases. In addiside of the issue. Overseas
tion, UPS has offices
buyers, especially first- Buyers will be notified of the transition across the globe that buytime ones, are not famil- of their purchases
ers can visit should they
iar with Expandore and
have any queries.
do not know much about the company.
I now have my HVR-Z1P camera and
This concern is raised when high-value and I am very pleased indeed. UPSs delivery
expensive goods such as professional video service was excellent; it cleared the parand audio equipment are involved.
cel for collection within 12 hours, says
John Malcolm, now one of Expandores Gordon Hiles, one of Expandores many
regular clients, echoes the concerns of first- international customers.
time buyers: I was initially a bit hesitant
According to Steven Sun, director of
about buying something over the Internet Expandore, the companys growth has been
and checked Expandores profile via several impressive since it opted for the UPS Exsources before placing an order. There are change CollectSM service. He says, We are
so many scams going on these days that you able to use UPS Exchange CollectSM to help
have to be a bit careful.
turn sceptical buyers around. When prosTo put the buyers mind at ease, Expan- pective buyers learn of UPS Exchange
dore decided to offer an alternative finan- CollectSM as the alternative payment gatecial transaction process that provides the way, they are reassured and keen to buy
buyer with enough confidence to purchase from us. Not only do we get more customfrom Expandore and not bring his business ers, they are also confident and satisfied
E
to other tried-and-tested suppliers.
with our service.
| BY P C LEE |
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The process of
UPS Exchange
CollectSM
1 Buyer and seller agree to sale
and purchase terms and specify
UPS Exchange CollectSM for financial settlement
2 Seller ships the goods by UPS, which notifies the buyer that the goods are in
transit and that payment must be made before delivery
3 Buyer pays UPS
4 After UPS receives payment, it delivers the shipment to the buyer
5 Upon verification of delivery, UPS remits funds to seller
1/12/05, 7:56 pm
PICTURES: UPS
10 THEEDGE SINGAPORE
| DECEMBER 5, 2005
CORPORATE
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10
Alternative energy
Wong says projects are getting bigger. In the
past, $3 million to $5 million contracts were
considered medium-sized. These are now seen
as small against several enquiries above $10
million. We see this trend continuing into next
year and beyond, he says. He sees the companys revenues growing to $500 million in the
next five years. In the first half of this year
Revenues from oil refining rose 35% and its energy-related orderbook
surged 66% in the six months to Sept 30. CEO Wong Fong Fui sees
this trend continuing.
Wong says projects are getting bigger, above $10 million, and sees the trend continuing in the near future
2/12/05, 9:39 pm
Boustead Projects, another subsidiary, provides industrial real estate solutions. Profits
for 1H2006 more than doubled to $26.34 million, partly because of a surge from its industrial property segment.
12 THEEDGE SINGAPORE
| DECEMBER 5, 2005
CORPORATE
But the maker of Brands Essence of Chicken hopes to break even in two to three years
| BY AUDRINA GAN |
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12
Although Brands Essence of Chicken is Cerebos key revenue generator, the taste of this 19th-century tonic drink is a barrier to attracting potential customers
is for sure, though. The enhanced marketing blitz via TV commercials would not be
frequently repeated in years to come. Its
costly to do so, not to mention the slew of
TV channels in China, says Koo.
If the challenges mount, could Cerebos
throw in the towel in China? DBS Vickers
Yong, who sees huge potential for growth in
China, doubts it. If they can be so successful
in a non-Chinese market like Thailand, it does
not make sense for it to stop penetrating [the]
China [market], he adds. At Cerebos, Koo
says the firm is resolved to make things work
in China.
During the briefing, Ramlee Buang,
Cerebos executive vice-president and chief
financial officer, reiterates that the company
would not go beyond its annual threshold
of $10 million with regard to losses in the
country. Meanwhile, Koo points to a positive sign China has recently imposed
more stringent regulation and penalties in a
bid to minimise false product claims. Now,
claims have to be backed up with scientific
research, which Cerebos purportedly has.
When will profits start rolling in? While Koo
says the group is more optimistic about
China than before, he prefers to maintain a
cautious stance. It would probably take
another two to three years before we could
possibly break even in China, adds Koo.
At DBS Vickers, Yong does not foresee the
China operations breaking even over the
next three to five years, even as he concedes
that revenue growth has been quite good.
2/12/05, 10:17 pm
14 THEEDGE SINGAPORE
| DECEMBER 5, 2005
CORPORATE
| BY FRANCIS TAN |
No divestment
So, who is J Bridge and why the enthusiasm over the stock?
Shiro Suzuki, Rotols newly appointed executive director and J Bridges sole Singapore-based representative, was eager to explain the nature of J Bridges participation in
Rotol. It is not a reverse takeover as we are
not doing away with the existing business to
gain only a shell company, he says.
The company plans to rehabilitate and restructure Rotol through a hands-on restructuring approach and to pursue new business opportunities with better profit margins. Shiro says, Well do what we can but,
at the least, we hope to change the moneylosing trend by next year.
Shiro, 31, first cut his teeth in the financial
industry as a credit analyst with the Los Angeles branch of Sumitomo Trust & Banking.
He then specialised in distressed assets at
KPMG as an accountant-cum-financial consultant for four years, mostly in its Japan office. He joined J Bridge in July 2004, following a brief stint at Shinsei Bank Ltd.
Sm_14_S194.pmd
14
Rotol
4000
Volume (000)
Price ($)
0.30
3000
0.19
2000
0.10
1000
Dec 3, 2004
It is not a reverse
takeover as we are
not doing away with
the existing business
to gain only a shell
company Shiro
which is listed on Osaka with a market capitalisation of about US$190 million. Kidohs
annual sales have halved to 11.3 billion
over the past three years. However, its stock
has jumped 2.4 times since J Bridge showed
up. Kidoh is keen to expand overseas and
Shiro believes Rotol could act as a conduit
for Japanese companies such as Kidoh to
come to Asia.
Rotol has about $22 million cash and less
than $5 million debts. It is exploring opportunities with regard to a possible sale of its
six-storey factory, which was written down
to $13.8 million in August.
2/12/05, 10:58 pm
16 THEEDGE SINGAPORE
| DECEMBER 5, 2005
CORPORATE
Sm_16_S194.pmd
16
Jetstar Asias next thrust will be in Indian cities like Chennai and Bangalore
ence to the comments by Tiger Airways CEO
Tony Davis, who said, What the codesharing
means is that Jetstar Asia will effectively cease
to operate independently as a low-cost carrier
[LCC]. Davis added: It will become the regional services arm of Qantas in Asia
Rather than being a LCC, a term often used
to describe Jetstar Asia, Ryan said the carrier
sees itself as a low-fare carrier. He asserts
that a prospective codesharing agreement with
Qantas would not affect its low-fare positioning. Travellers still want to have a certain
level of comfort and competitive fares we
are as competitive as any carrier, including
Tiger Airways, adds Ryan.
China dilemma
In a bid to ride into the black, Orange Star
has also been conducting a series of route rationalisation at Valuair. Unprofitable routes,
including those to Perth, Chengdu and
Xiamen, have been axed in recent months.
The first route people expected to be axed was
Perth indeed, this competitive and seasonal
route was axed in October. Why are popular
business-cum-leisure destinations like Chengdu and Xiamen, which are served by Singapore Airlines and a handful of Chinese carriers, not profitable? Valuair could not build
the load for Chengdu and Xiamen. If we [had],
we would have continued. Were not in the
habit of pulling out routes unless they are
commercially unviable. We didnt make such
decisions lightly, says Ryan.
But AirAsias CEO Tony Fernandes had
once lauded Xiamen as one of Thai AirAsias
most profitable routes. Im not privy to Tonys
accounts, Ryan retorts with a smile. Tonys
a very gregarious character. Im not sure why
he would say that. I simply know what our
results are. In his view, there was no way the
route could continue in a viable manner.
Some market watchers like analyst Chris
Eng from Malaysia-based OSK, which tracks
AirAsia, think otherwise. Xiamen is a profitable route, given the huge amount of business traffic. Therere a lot of IT companies
there, he says. Rather than a lack of demand,
he reckons Valuairs semi-frills model is the
crux of the problem. Theyre caught in between the full-service carriers and the lower
end of the market.
Is China still on the radar screen for Orange
Looking to India
For now, Ryan prefers to cast his bets on India. He feels the Indian aviation market is facing a dearth of capacity. Jetstar Asia currently
flies to Kolkata. We hope to fly into more
Indian cities, such as Bangalore and Chennai,
in the near future, says Ryan. In September,
Jetstar Asia received flight permits for
Bangalore from the Civil Aviation Authority
of Singapore (CAAS). It is awaiting traffic
rights from Bangalores aviation authorities.
However, analysts like OSKs Eng are sceptical about India. For starters, India has re-
2/12/05, 11:15 pm
CORPORATE
Building a powerhouse
mainly in consumer-banking space in Latin
America, the US and Europe even as it has
passed up opportunities to buy banks in Asia,
unlike its arch-Asian rival Standard Chartered
(which has bought banks in South Korea,
Thailand, India and Indonesia).
When Bond took over as chairman of
HSBC, it was a federation of banks with no
clear identity and 200-odd entities each with
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| BY ASSIF SHAMEEN |
Sm_17_S194.pmd
17
2.12.05, 11:15 pm
BIG MONEY
cus on cost controls. He is so famous for personally turning off lights that HSBC offices
around the world are known to have dark corridors. Even today, on most days, Bond takes
the London Underground to his office every
morning. When he visits Paris, he takes the
much cheaper Eurostar train rather than use
a corporate jet. Banking, he says, is all about
costs. The lower you keep the costs, the better your margins. Citibanks Wriston is remembered for his famous quote: Information
about money is becoming almost as important as money itself. Bond might be remembered for his pontification on cost controls. E
18 THEEDGE SINGAPORE
| DECEMBER 5, 2005
CORPORATE
| BY GOOLA WARDEN |
Joint-venture structure
Fung Choi Printing Ltd
51%
43.7 million RMB
cash
49%
JV1 = Weilun JV
42 million RMB*
61%
49%
2.45 million RMB
cash
Sm_18_S194.pmd
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2/12/05, 11:57 pm
20 THEEDGE SINGAPORE
| DECEMBER 5, 2005
CORPORATE
747-400 aircraft after Hong Kongs Air Transport Licensing Authority approved its application for the routes, CEO Steve Miller said in
a telephone interview last Thursday. The airline plans to start flights to Londons Gatwick
Airport next June, he said.
The approval has helped us get back on
track, said Miller, a former CEO of Hong
Kong Dragon Airlines Ltd, the citys second-
Sm_20_S194.pmd
20
3.12.05, 12:10 am
EDGEWISE
FROM PAGE 3
ingapore plans to dig underground caverns that can hold 25 million barrels of
oil, expanding the islands storage capacity by almost a third, said Choo Chiau
Beng, chairman of Singapore Petroleum Co,
at the Ascope 2005 conference in Manila last
week.
CORPORATE
Sm_21_S194.pmd
21
3/12/05, 12:49 am
last five years, the US Energy Information Administration said in a June 2005 report.
Singapores three oil refineries, one of
which is 50% owned by Singapore Petroleum,
have oil tanks that can hold 63 million barrels. Independent tank operators have capacity of a further 27 million barrels, Choo said,
adding that other companies have plans to
build storage facilities totalling 17 million barE
rels of oil by 2008. Bloomberg LP
CORPORATE
OPINION
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87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
my say
Sm_27_S194.pmd
27
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
Regression analysis
Ten out of 15 currencies in Asia-Pacific that Bloomberg tracks have declined this year. The yen has fallen
the most against the dollar (14%),
the won the least (0.3%). The yuan
has risen about 2.4% or another
0.3% since the July 21 revaluation.
To arrive at their conclusion that the
yuan is still pegged, the researchers
have computed the daily changes in
the Chinese currencys value against
| BY ANDY MUKHERJEE |
Still pegged
If one plots the dollar against the
Eyes on China
It isnt a predictive study. It
doesnt say the yuan will remain
pegged to the dollar forever or
even tomorrow. When and if
China embarks on the road to a
flexible currency, the researchers
expect to discern the signs on their
radar. Those signs, or a lack of
3.12.05, 12:09 am
30 THEEDGE SINGAPORE
| DECEMBER 5, 2005
CORPORATE
OPINION
Sm_30_S194.pmd
30
| DENISE YAM |
Stronger-than-expected growth
in 2005
Economic growth so far this year has In anticipation of more service sector opportunities from Chinas increasing globalisation, Hong Kong businesses
beaten earlier expectations by a wide have remained optimistic and stepped up hiring this year
margin, as Hong Kongs trade sector condriver behind the current reflation. Retailers and
tinued to ride on Chinas investment and ex- Medium-term growth still dependent on
restaurants are starting to feel pressure from the
port boom, while the positive wealth effect from Chinas demand for services
asset reflation and robust employment growth Hong Kongs medium-term economic develop- steep hikes in rents, and are passing the increasgave support to consumption. The rise in inter- ment strategy is straightforward: to further en- ing costs onto consumers. However, before
est rates was steep, but it had been adequately hance its role as an international financial cen- wage growth catches up, such increases in rents
anticipated. China optimism and revaluation ex- tre and the service hub of southern China. The risk crowding out spending in other consumppectation continued to draw liquidity into the strength seen in the export of services over the tion categories. Meanwhile, we have yet to see
region, so the unwinding of the liquidity boom past several years is the best evidence of such any significant impact of the appreciation in the
had been gradual.
development. Services exports have reached renminbi on Hong Kongs import prices. We
35% of GDP in 3Q2005, and the share in GDP is believe intense competition among mainland
still expanding, we believe. Net of service im- producers will mean that a limited portion of
But we forecast slowdown ahead in
ports, the services trade surplus has expanded the burden of the revaluation will be passed on
sync with China
We remain convinced that Chinas economy continuously and never failed to contribute posi- to consumers. Meanwhile, our global teams
expectation for further strength in the US dolis slowing as investment comes under the tively to real GDP growth since 1999.
In anticipation of more service sector op- lar, and our conservative outlook on asset price
pressure of overcapacity, rather than tighter
liquidity. We expect this slowdown to be kept portunities from Chinas increasing globali- gains in Hong Kong upon higher rates also hold
at a gradual pace by surplus liquidity and low sation, Hong Kong businesses have remained us back from looking for a sharp surge in inflainterest rates. Economic data out of China, optimistic and stepped up hiring this year. Par- tion in the near term. Looking into next year,
though subject to considerable scepticism re- ticularly strong growth in headcount was seen we continue to expect a gradual slowdown in
garding its credibility, suggest a gradual in the trade sector, financial services, restau- line with the mainland economy. Limited breakslowdown is underway since the peak in rants and hotels. We expect to see further through is expected of domestic demand growth
1H2004. We see Chinese authorities maintain- steady improvement in labour market condi- (+2.7% verss +2.6% this year) amid high interest rates, while trade growth is seen dipping
ing effective management of liquidity condi- tions ahead.
to single-digits, the slowest in four years. Overtions through a combination of credit and exall GDP growth next year is now forecast at 5%,
change-rate policies so as to achieve a soft Forecasts update
landing. Because of the vast excesses created We are lifting our 2005 real GDP growth fore- revised up from 4.2% previously to reflect
over the boom years, nevertheless, this cast to 7.4% from 5.5%. The revision takes our expectation for a more gradual slowdown
E
gradual slowdown trend is expected to last into account the strong growth already real- in China.
throughout next year and further into 2007. ised in 3Q and the upward revision in the
For the Hong Kong economy, given its de- 2Q figure. We have made limited adjustments Denise Yam is a vice-president and member
pendence on China for growth, we also fore- to domestic demand components (+2.6% of Morgan Stanleys economics team covering
cast an orderly slowdown in sync with China. versus +2.8% previously), so the bulk of the Greater China
2/12/05, 6:37 pm
32 THEEDGE SINGAPORE
| DECEMBER 5, 2005
OPINION
CHINESE BUSINESS
BLOOMBERG
ver the past few years, as the Chinese government relaxes its controls
over the economy, it is slowly removing the magazine publishing
industrys financial and editorial
constraints and opening up Chinas publishing industry to foreign involvement. Chinas
accession to the World Trade Organization
(WTO) means it must admit foreign competitors into various industries like banking, auto
production and especially publishing, in order to level the playing field.
In 2003, the government approved US$469
million ($1 approx US$0.60) worth of foreign
investment into 84 Chinese printing enterprises. Last year, in line with pledges China
made upon entry to the WTO in 2001, the
State Administration of Press and Publications
announced that overseas investors will be allowed to form book, newspaper, and periodical wholesale and retail firms. Before, investors had to cooperate with a state-owned entity that has a government-issued publishing
licence, but many magazine companies in
China are already looking for foreign partners
as the government eases restrictions.
A segmented population
million, with US-based company Big Way
Media Inc in Lanzhou to push the magazine
in the North American market.
Circulation of magazines
in China
YEAR
Industry structure
The State Press & Publication Administration
(SPPA) classifies magazines published in
China into seven categories: general interest,
social science, science and technology, culture and education, art and literature, childrens and pictorials.
Despite Chinas entry into the WTO, the Chinese magazine industry is still strictly supervised
and monopolised by the government. In 2003,
about 2,000 magazine titles operated as commercial entities, accounting for only 22% of all
magazine titles in China. The others were managed by either government or academic institutions. The Chinese magazine industry is basically still managed by the government, as far as
the industry structure is concerned.
However, the regulations on magazines
are not as strict as those of other media like
newspaper or TV. It is comparatively easy to
get a new licence to publish a magazine.
From 2000 to 2003, an average of 245 new
titles emerged in the magazine market. In
contrast, obtaining a new licence to publish
a newspaper is difficult since newspapers
play a very important role in directing propaganda. In addition, the magazine industrys
entry threshold is relatively low and investment costs are comparatively less than those
of other media.
Even though government censors have
become less demanding, the Chinese government still has the final say on editorial content, typically demanding adjustments to politically sensitive or salacious material.
Magazines in China make profit via two
channels revenue from large circulation
numbers, or from advertisement sales. The
first business model targets low-income readers, while the second model targets mainly
higher-income readers like managers and
well-educated and wealthy women.
In 2003, advertising income for Chinese
magazines was 2.3 billion renminbi ($1
approx 4.77 renminbi), a 60% surge over the
2002 figure of 1.5 billion renminbi. In 2003,
gross publication income was estimated at 10
billion renminbi. Given that publication expenses accounted for 40% of gross publication income, the net publication income could
reach six billion renminbi. As a result, China
magazines total revenue stood at 8.8 billion
renminbi. The ratio of advertising income, net
publication income to other revenue was
26:68:6. Therefore, despite a shift in Chinas
Sm_32_S194.pmd
Even though government censors have become less demanding, the Chinese government still has the final
say on editorial content, typically demanding adjustments to politically sensitive or salacious material
32
NO
OF
TITLES
CIRCULATION
(BIL)
AVERAGE
CIRCULATION
(MIL)
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
6,078
5,751
6,056
6,484
7,011
7,325
7,583
7,916
7,918
7,999
8,187
8,725
8,889
9,029
9,704
9,490
1.84
1.79
2.06
2.36
2.35
2.21
2.34
2.31
2
2.09
2.85
2.9
2.9
3
2.9
2.84
0.3
0.31
0.34
0.36
0.34
0.3
0.31
0.29
0.25
0.26
0.35
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.3
0.3
magazine market to the advertising salesdriven model, most Chinese magazines still
depend mainly on publication income. With
Chinas large population of rural people whose
incomes are relatively low, however, magazines with low costs and a reliance on sales
will be more likely to have a large market
share in the long run.
Despite the rise of Chinese fashion magazines that entice a new generation of female
readers with high-end brand-name advertisements and the latest fashion tips and peeks at
the rich and famous, the most enduring magazine titles in China are still plain-covered periodicals with contributions from the Chinese
readers themselves.
Reader
One such title is Reader (Duzhe), the most
popular monthly magazine in China. As at
January 2004, the total circulation of Reader, a
bimonthly magazine, had topped 800 million,
ranking fourth among magazines worldwide,
after Readers Digest, National Geographic and
Time, which are published in the US.
First published in 1981, Reader has ranked
in the top 10 highest circulated Chinese magazines for 13 consecutive years, with its
monthly circulation exceeding eight million in
October and November 2003. Known for its
high quality and heart-warming style, Readers content is mainly contributed by its millions of readers. In 2003, Gansu Provincial
Peoples Press, Readers publisher, signed a
five-year contract, involving a total of US$4.5
The Stories
The Stories, published by the Shanghai Literature and Art Publishing House, is still, after
four decades of history, one of Chinas most
widely read monthly magazines, with a circulation of four million nationwide, second
only to Reader. Beginning last year, the
pocket-sized magazine became a bimonthly
magazine. Priced at 2.5 renminbi, The Stories
brings in net profit of more than 30 million
renminbi annually. Two-thirds come from
subscriptions, with the rest from advertisement revenue. In 1985, The Stories was the
most popular magazine in China, with an alltime high monthly circulation of 7.6 million.
No stars appear on its plain covers. Oral
literature and word-of-mouth tales fill its
pages. It publishes mysteries, adventures, old
Chinese legends and jokes. The editorial board
chooses stories for both entertainment and literary value. Ordinary individuals and their
achievements are celebrated in the stories.
Some stories are a reflection of Chinese society and behind nearly every story is a traditional moral, which seems to speak to audiences across the country.
Problems
Despite the many opportunities that the
magazine industry offers, there are some
problems inherent in the system. One is plagiarism. In China, where imitation is considered the sincerest form of profitability, there
is a lack of product differentiation in the nations 9,000 licensed magazines, stemming
from the reluctance to create original content. Titles from the US are merged into one
another, losing their unique identities when
imported to China. Producers look to each
other to decipher market demand, following
the safe and tested route. As a result, many
magazines look alike, and all the free English-language monthlies, like Thats Beijing
and Beijing This Month, are virtually interchangeable to consumers and advertisers
alike. As competition and foreign investment
grow, though, magazine publishers will soon
learn that brand loyalty and product identification are vital to magazines.
Distribution is another problem. As distribution channels are not developed as commercial business enterprises, circulation sales
via newsstands and other retail outlets are not
all there yet. Therefore, the market for consumer magazines has developed neither as
quickly nor as widely as it should have over
the past few years. In the last decade, the sale
2/12/05, 6:38 pm
MALAYSIA
CORPORATE
time in overseas postings in regional sales offices in MAS, took his place as managing director. Subsequent events showed that appointment was a mistake.
For the first quarter to June 2005, barely a
year after Fuaad had taken over, the airline
slid precipitously to a loss of RM275 million.
Fuaad resigned and MAS chairman Datuk Dr
Munir Majid stepped into the MDs shoes
pending the entry of new MD Idris.
Munir had the unpleasant task last week
of announcing that for the first six months of
its current financial year, it made net losses
of over RM600 million, clocking over RM300
million of losses in the second quarter.
But neither MAS nor Khazanah Nasional
Bhd, its ultimate holding company, saw it fit
to disclose the total extent of losses to the nation as PMBs results were not disclosed simultaneously.
It is clear what MASs problems are. Its fuel
costs are insufficiently hedged and it has not
been able to pass on the spiralling fuel costs
to customers by efficient pricing. Fuaad, according to MAS insiders, did not put in place
a mechanism for effective fuel hedging the
way some other airlines did.
During Fuaads tenure, sources say, sales
again became supreme and revenue management, which aims at revenue maximisation
through appropriate pricing, took a back seat.
Marketing and selling of seats became supreme without sufficiently looking at the overall impact of measures such as route expansion on yields.
There are problems in other areas as well.
Revenue per employee is low relative to other
airlines, less than half SIAs, for instance. Staff
need to be cut or to be made a lot more productive. All of which point to a sorry state of
affairs that Idris is trying to put right.
Not only did he announce the appointment
of a highly experienced director of operations,
the very next day, he got the Prime Minister
to talk to MAS staff and then he spoke to them
himself. True to his reputation as a man who
engages, he has gone to the staff, asking them
to address him as plain Idris. First impressions
of him are good, he seems to have a grasp of
Sm_33t34_S194.pmd
33
3/12/05, 2:27 am
34 THEEDGE SINGAPORE
| DECEMBER 5, 2005
CORPORATE
MALAYSIA
After Indonesia and Singapore, TMI has set its sights on Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand
Sm_33t34_S194.pmd
34
3/12/05, 2:28 am
CORPORATE
MALAYSIA
he REIT that Malaysias Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB) is mulling over will be Syariah-compliant, sources say. It will not only be
the first Islamic REIT in the country,
but probably also the worlds first Syariah-complaint asset-type of this class.
PNBs move to lump all its assets
into an Islamic REIT came about after guidelines on that asset class
were released by the Securities Commission (SC) of Malaysia two weeks
ago. The guidelines had long been
anticipated by the industry.
PNB had recently signalled its intention to enter the REIT market to
convert its fixed assets to liquid ones.
Its CEO and president Tan Sri Hamad
Kamah Piah is reported to have said
that the group aims to grow its property business and that PNB could
later transfer these properties to a
REIT, which it will manage itself.
However, PNB going into a REIT
does not seem to have captured the
imagination of the investing public.
Hence, would an Islamic REIT by PNB
be well received?
Considering that the investment
management company has been in
Sm_35_S194.pmd
35
2/12/05, 11:59 pm
36 THEEDGE SINGAPORE
| DECEMBER 5, 2005
SPORTS BUSINESS
Soccer church delays tarnish Londons image as it prepares for 2012 Olympics, say critics
| BY BRIAN LYSAGHT |
Wembley, the worlds most expensive sports stadium, will cost 757 million, five times forecasts and 62% more than New Yorks proposed Yankee baseball park
Funding difficulty
London was chosen by the International
Olympics Committee in July to host the 2012
games. Wembley and the Millennium Dome
will host Olympic events, according to organizers who are also planning to build an 80,000seat Olympic stadium and a 500-acre park
with facilities for 15,000 athletes.
Bets are off on Wembleys completion date
because demand for the wager has set our
alarm bells ringing, Clare, the spokesman for
Barking, England-based Coral, said in a Nov
17 telephone interview.
The proposed US$800 million Yankee baseball park, due to open in 2009, will have
50,800 seats and host 80 games a year. Londons Arsenal soccer club will open the
60,000-seat, 357 million Emirates Stadium in
August and have about 30 events annually.
The Football Association, the stadiums
owner, had difficulty raising funds. Germany-based WestLB AG provided a 426
million loan after JPMorgan Chase & Co
backed out. WestLB syndicated the loan and
now holds 55 million of Wembley debt,
said John Godfrey, a bank spokesman.
Sm_36_S194.pmd
36
Soccer history
Other funding came from government grants
and lottery proceeds. The stadium may refinance the WestLB loan or sell bonds to pay
it off, said Wembleys Cunnah, 47. The Premiership, the top English soccer league, increased revenue by 6% to 1.3 billion last
season and was more profitable than any
other European league, according to accountancy firm Deloitte & Touche. That
popularity may help Wembley succeed,
said Siebold.
There wasnt any point in building just
another Premiership stadium because there
are a lot of good ones, Cunnah said. We
had to be a step above that.
A 133m (436 ft) steel arch was installed
above Wembley last year and is visible across
London. Its two meters shorter than the London Eye, the Ferris wheel near the Thames.
Cunnahs challenge is to maintain the
2/12/05, 11:27 pm
SPORTS BUSINESS
BLOOMBERG
mukhriz mahathir on
kj, his father, family,
business, rabbis & more
AVAILABLE
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be the
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mukhriz mahathir on Anwar
Ibrahim, KJ, his father, family,
business, rabbis and more
centrefold!
hannah tan, khir
rahman, doreen tang
On celebrity and
Malaysian entertainment
free map!
gallery w/o walls
Unrealised Project #1
Membina Masjid, lebuhraya
and much, much more in our
exploration of what can be
tapai
dato in love part 2,
monte carlo 1947
More fun in the hay! Swiss
milkmaids, Russian femme
fatales and the family jewels
teohlogy
Patrick Teoh on Big Business,
bottom lines and our behinds
infernal affair
three curious views of an
attempted makeover of
malaysian entertainment.
meet bodilicious hannah,
giganormous khir &
archangel doreen
SUBSCRIBER COPY
NOT FOR RESALE
available at
Sm_37_S194.pmd
37
2/12/05, 11:41 pm
THEEDGE
City&Country
Raising
the bar
Boutique-hotel
business to get
more challenging
Bangkok
slowdown
Luxury-condo
market losing
steam in Thai
capital
THE NEW
MAJESTIC
Scc_Cover_S194.indd 1
12/2/05 6:34:01 PM
d
n
e
o
a
EDITOR/REGIONAL
MANAGING DIRECTOR
Tan Boon Kean
(bktan@bizedge.com)
SECTION EDITOR
Cecilia Chow
(cecilia.chow@bizedge.com)
STAFF WRITER
Denise Wee
(denise.wee@bizedge.com)
COPY-EDITING DESK
Dorothy Teoh, Elaine Lim,
Koay Sook Kuan,
Evelyn Tung, Wong Ee Laine
SENIOR
PHOTOJOURNALIST
Chu Juck Seng
(jschu@bizedge.com)
PHOTOJOURNALIST
Shirley Ye Yingyu
(shirley.ye@bizedge.com)
DESIGN DESK
Calvin Yuen, Christine Ong,
Nik Edra Ridthwan Anuar,
Chan Yoke Lin
PRE-PRESS DESK
Thomas Chin, Hong Kin Siang,
Yong Onn, Zamri Razali,
Kuah Choon Eng,
To Yen Suang
ADVERTISING +
MARKETING
REGIONAL GENERAL MANAGER |
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(edward@bizedge.com)
MANAGER | T Shanmugaratnam
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(simon.wong@bizedge.com)
Wendi Yang
(wendi.yang@bizedge.com)
COORDINATOR | Sumi Ateck (sumi.
ateck@bizedge.com)
CIRCULATIONSUBSCRIPTIONS
REGIONAL SENIOR MANAGER |
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ASSISTANT MANAGER |
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ASSISTANT | June Cheong
(june.cheong@bizedge.com)
PUBLISHER
The Edge Publishing Pte Ltd
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Scc_2_S194.indd 2
| DECEMBER 5, 2005
CITY&COUNTRY
PROPERTY BRIEFS
Offshore
(
Prosperity REIT plans
HK$1.92 billion IPO
Cheung Kongs Prosperity REIT plans
to raise HK$1.92 billion ($1 approx
HK$4.58) in an IPO this month, following the US$2.6 billion Link REIT.
The company is raising money to buy
seven ofce and industrial properties
from Cheung Kong and other shareholders for HK$4 billion, a Bloomberg
report says.
The REIT plans to sell 888.2 million
shares at between HK$2 and HK$2.16,
according to sale arrangers. Yields
range between 5.31% and 5.73%. Prosperity REIT plans to x the price of
units on Dec 8, the wire report adds.
Cheung Kong will gain about HK$2.43
billion from the sale, which is being arranged by JPMorgan and Merrill Lynch.
Cheung Kong plans to subscribe as
much as 18.58% of Prosperity REIT,
while Hutchinson plans to purchase
up to 10.42%.
Home
when there would be more hints on
the interest-rate trends, the JPMorgan
report adds.
City&Country
o
12/2/05 6:54:57 PM
(Pic
CJS)
CITY&COUNTRY
New competitors in the boutique-hotel business may face difculty entering the market
| BY CECILIA CHOW |
Scc_3n6_S194.indd 3
Lavish, one of the ve themed suites in the hotel, is priced at $500 a night
12/1/05 10:23:05 PM
| DECEMBER 5, 2005
CITY&COUNTRY
COVER STORY
The new
MAJESTIC
The Majestic Hotel makes way for a newer and trendier luxury boutique
hotel, but with all the history and old charm preserved
| BY CECILIA CHOW |
Loh: The New Majestic Hotel caters to the traveller who wants more frills, luxury and space and is prepared
to pay a little more for them
rst before expanding it into the boutiquehotel business. In the old days, the restaurant
had been famous for its Cantonese cuisine,
namely its sharks n dishes and yee sang
(raw sh). It was also the place for high society to hold wedding dinners in the 1970s
and 1980s.
Loh bought the building with its contents
intact so he could continue running the hotel
while drawing up plans for his new concept.
The New Majestic Hotel will comprise 30
rooms. Loh will also revive the Majestic Restaurant and turn it into a trendy 100-seater
restaurant that serves a wide array of Chinese
cuisine. A hotel and restaurant by the name
of Majestic has been on the site for 70-odd
years. So, I am looking to preserve the history
of the building both in physical form and in
spirit, he says.
Two months ago, Loh also bought the
adjacent three-storey shophouse for $2 million in a private-treaty sale. He intends to
turn the rst oor into a bar, to be named
Majestic Bar. As for the upper oors, there
are plans to convert them into more rooms,
but the plans are not conrmed and will be
subject to planning approval. Loh had purchased the historic shophouse at 41 Bukit
Pasoh Road from the family of the late Ong
Tiang Wee, a partner in the distinguished
law rm Laycock & Ong, one of the oldest
law rms in Singapore. (Minister Mentor Lee
Kuan Yew practised law at Laycock & Ong
from 1950 to 1959 as a legal adviser to trade
unions after his return to Singapore from
Cambridge, England.) The rm will vacate
the premises in early January.
The quiet, sleepy Bukit Pasoh area is
known as the Street of Clans as a number
of Chinese clan associations are still located
there. But with the opening of the New Majestic, Loh is set to transform the area
into a trendy place, just as he
has successfully turned
Loh
Scc_4t5_S194.indd 4
12/1/05 11:14:58 PM
the
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CITY&COUNTRY
COVER STORY
ueant
ne,
ang
so70s
nts
otel
ept.
30
Resater
ese
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ory
d in
An artists impression of one of the six loft rooms at the New Majestic Hotel
the
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ms,
be
urukit
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ade
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ate
Loh purchased the shophouse next door at 41 Bukit Pasoh Road for $2 million two months ago
An artists impression of the revived Majestic Restaurant, which was famous for its Cantonese cuisine in the
old days
oh
is
ber
ted
Ma-
the Keong Saik Road (a former red-light district) into a hip boutique-hotel location with
Hotel 1929. He was one of two recipients of
the New Tourism Entrepreneur of the Year
award given by the Singapore Tourism Board
(STB) in March to new entrants in the tourism industry who have made a signicant
impact on visitors to Singapore.
Target audience
The overarching theme for both hotels is
old shophouse with a modern take. He
sees the New Majestic Hotel and Hotel 1929
catering to a similar market but pitched at
Scc_4t5_S194.indd 5
All the 30 rooms in the New Majestic will have different designs by local Singapore designers
Expansion plans
Loh plans to manage the New Majestic himself, just like what he is doing for Hotel 1929.
The thing about a 30-room hotel is that you
can manage it yourself, he says. If you have
500 rooms, you have to think twice.
He expects to have at least 30 staff, including a hotel general manager, at the New
12/1/05 11:16:16 PM
CITY&COUNTRY
Bangkok slowdown
CBRE
Singapore developers dont expect luxury launches to be affected but capital gains may be muted
| BY DENISE WEE |
Scc_7n8_S194.indd 7
1H2004
1,502
1,601
15
2H2004
872
651
5
1H2005
1,553
1,424
5
3Q2005
NA
54
1
Units
%
Total supply
Total take-up
60
Vacancy rate
50
40
30,000
Upcoming launches
Fraser & Neave will soon launch The Pano, a 397-unit, luxury freehold condo at Rama III in Bangkok
25,000
30
20,000
20
15,000
10,000
10
5,000
0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 1Q 2Q 3Q
05 05 05
12/1/05 10:41:41 PM
| DECEMBER 5, 2005
CITY&COUNTRY
UK mortgage approvals up
BLOOMBERG
Bank of England sees broad stability continuing in the housing market amid increased turnover
| BY CRAIG STIRLING |
Trailing condence
Consumers willingness to borrow and spend
has yet to be reected in a resurgence in condence, which slid to its lowest level in 21/2
years in October, a survey by GfK NOP for
the European Commission showed on Oct 31.
Nationwide Building Society said on Nov 9 it
fell to an 18-month low.
Condence may be tested further in December with the advent of the Christmas
season. Consumers spend 10 billion more in
December than any other month, according
to the British Retail Consortium, which represents 80% of retailers.
Retail industry views on the seasons prospects are mixed. Stuart Rose, CEO of Marks and
Spencer, the countrys biggest clothing retailer,
says the company expects a tough Christmas
as it avoids discounts and spending wanes.
Figures released Nov 22 by Footfall, a retail industry researcher, showed store visit
increased 8.5% in the week to Nov 20 as shoppers sought discounts. Hopefully, increased
numbers of shoppers on the high street will
be retained by rolling promotions across a
wide variety of stores and consumers will
continue to shop early for Christmas, says
Natasha Burton, Footfalls marketing manager.
Bloomberg LP
Scc_7n8_S194.indd 8
Developers unfazed by
slowdown
For now, Singapore developers are seemingly unfazed
by the slowdown. A CapitaLand spokeswoman says HPLs The Met is 60% sold, and recently achieved
the Bangkok residential pricing of 150,000 baht of its penthouse units, a new
market has been performing benchmark, according to CBRE, its marketing agent.
strongly over the past two
pace seen in 2003 and 2004, she
years, supported by pentup demand for housing and strong says. This is healthy for the market
economic fundamentals. Generally, as it does not build up the property
home sales in Thailand continue to bubble, she says.
But CapitaLand plans to venture
be encouraging, although not at the
CBRE
12/1/05 10:42:50 PM
MANAGING
YOUR
MONEY
Dividend
discipline
ABN Amros Wouter Weijand buys low and sells high
by focusing on dividend yields
| BY KELVIN TAN |
Spw_1n2_S194.pmd
pans real estate and stock market bubble, Japanese banks accounted for about one-sixth of
the worlds stock-market capitalisation, recalls
Weijand. The 10 biggest Japanese banks were
really big in the MSCI [World Index], and everybody wanted to buy them just before they
fell 90% in value in 1990. The same thing
happened 10 years later with technology and
telecommunications stocks. In early 2000, just
as the Nasdaq market was peaking, they
formed a large part of key market benchmarks,
Weijand says. Unfortunately, investors were
all crushed by these big stocks.
Not that Weijand has anything against size
per se. We are not married to size; we are
married to yields, he explains. And, that focus on yields often prevents him from including stocks with swollen market caps in his
portfolio, because stocks the market is most
excited about usually dont offer attractive
dividend yields. Certainly, Japanese banks in
the late 1980s and technology stocks in late
1990s wouldnt have been of interest to him
as they yielded nothing in dividends. In general, Weijand confines his portfolio to stocks
that offer dividend yields exceeding 3%.
in the late 1990s that growth might not last forever, he recalls. In October 2003, he launched
his fund houses first high-dividend-oriented global equity fund in the Netherlands. Called the
ABN Amro High Income Equity Fund, it was an
instant hit. It was the largest equity fund
launched in the history of our bank in [the Netherlands], says Weijand, who has been in the
investment business for 22 years and lives in
Amsterdam. As at the end of October, the ABN
Amro High Income Equity Fund was worth 840
million euros ($1 approx 0.50 euro).
Since its inception two years ago, the ABN
2/12/05, 6:15 pm
| DECEMBER 5, 2005
PERSONAL WEALTH
EDITOR/REGIONAL MANAGING
DIRECTOR
Tan Boon Kean
(bktan@bizedge.com)
SECTION EDITOR
Ben Paul
(benjamin.paul@bizedge.com)
STAFF WRITER
Kelvin Tan
(kelvin.tan@bizedge.com)
COPY-EDITING DESK
Dorothy Teoh, Elaine Lim,
Koay Sook Kuan, Evelyn Tung,
Wong Ee Laine
SENIOR PHOTOJOURNALIST
Chu Juck Seng
(jschu@bizedge.com)
PHOTOJOURNALIST
Shirley Ye Yingyu
(shirley.ye@bizedge.com)
DESIGN DESK
Calvin Yuen, Christine Ong,
Nik Edra Ridthwan Anuar,
Chan Yoke Lin
PRE-PRESS DESK
Thomas Chin, Hong Kin Siang,
Yong Onn, Zamri Razali,
Kuah Choon Eng,
To Yen Suang
ADVERTISING +
MARKETING
REGIONAL GENERAL MANAGER |
Edward Stanislaus
(edward@bizedge.com)
MANAGER | T Shanmugaratnam
(t.shan@bizedge.com)
Colin Tan
(colin.tan@bizedge.com)
Simon Wong
(simon.wong@bizedge.com)
Wendi Yang
(wendi.yang@bizedge.com)
COORDINATOR | Sumi Ateck
(sumi.ateck@bizedge.com)
CIRCULATION-SUBSCRIPTIONS
REGIONAL SENIOR MANAGER |
Suresh Kumar
(suresh@bizedge.com)
ASSISTANT MANAGER | Rosniati Selamat
(rosniati.selamat@bizedge.com)
EXECUTIVE | Naziela Nasir
(naziela.nasir@bizedge.com)
ASSISTANT | June Cheong
(june.cheong@bizedge.com)
PUBLISHER
The Edge Publishing Pte Ltd
150, Cecil Street #13-00
Singapore 069543
Tel: (65) 6232 8622
Fax: (65) 6232 8620
PRINTER
KHL Printing Co Pte Ltd
57 Loyang Drive
Singapore 508968
Tel: (65) 6543 2222
Fax: (65) 6545 3333
If their dividend yields drop below 3% for three consecutive months, however, they are kicked out of
the S&P/Citigroup High Income Equity Index, and
Weijands fund avoids them. That is a discipline
that adds a lot of value to our portfolio, he says.
Weijand and his team then screen all the stocks
that are included in the benchmark, and consider
the sustainability of their dividends, their financial
health and their valuations. Short-listed counters are
then further evaluated using fundamental analysis
and qualitative assessments like company visits before Weijand decides which ones to include in the
fund. We screen for stocks every month. And if
something crashes and it has attractive dividends and
is still a decent company, we will buy into it.
We welcome your
comments and criticism.
Send your letters to
The Edge, Raffles City Post Office
PO Box 218
Singapore 911708
Tel: (65) 6232 8622
Fax: (65) 6232 8620
e-mail:
feedbackspore@bizedge.com
Bullish on Asia
Geographically, Weijand says he is bullish about dividend-paying stocks in Asia, especially those in Japan.
We are actually overweight in Asia at the moment
by 4% in our global portfolio, and we see a particularly strong cyclical environment in Japan, which we
think is finally coming out of the doldrums.
Within Asia, Weijand notes that Japanese stocks
currently pay the lowest dividends. But that is fast
changing. He reckons that many Japanese companies have almost finished cleaning up their balance
sheets, and will begin raising their dividend payouts
when they are done. That will happen over the
next few years, he says. And at the same time,
Japans zero-rate policy will have to stop, he adds.
They will have to raise interest rates from zero,
and when that happens, you will see a pick-up in
the general yield level of every asset class in Japan, including dividends.
Reflecting Weijands bullishness on Asia and Japan, his fund house has launched the ABN Amro
Asia Pacific High Dividend Equity Fund. This new
fund, launched on Nov 18, is currently available only
to high-net-worth investors in Singapore. Weijand
says his new dividend Asian equity fund currently
with a portfolio of 50 Asian stocks will adopt the
same investment process as his global fund. We
will look for high-dividend-paying Asian stocks with
earnings momentum, and we hope some of that earnings momentum will translate into dividend momenE
tum as well.
Fund briefs
IMAS hires new executive director
The Investment Management Association of
Singapore (IMAS), which represents the
interests of fund management companies in
Singapore, has appointed local fundmanagement veteran Venkatagiri Mudeliar
as its new executive director. Mudeliar was
general manager at Dresdner Asset
Management from 1996 to 2003. Before his
stint at Dresdner, he worked for DBS Bank
and DBS Asset Management for 24 years.
According to IMAS, Mudeliar will coordinate
the associations work on regulatory, investor
education and development issues. He
officially joined IMAS last Thursday.
Mudeliars predecessor at IMAS, Andrew
Kwek, resigned in October to take up the
position of head of institutional sales at
Deutsche Asset Management.
Spw_1n2_S194.pmd
2/12/05, 6:16 pm
| DECEMBER 5, 2005
PERSONAL WEALTH
Aging boomers deploy their formidable wealth to charities and good causes
| BY SUZANNE MCGEE |
Spw_4n5_S194.pmd
Bill and Melinda Gates US$28.8 billion foundation, the most visible and renowned for its efforts to improve
the health of poor children worldwide, took just five years to become gargantuan
Family foundations
Sure, there are other vehicles that a budding philanthropist can turn to, such as donor-advised funds and charitable remainder
trusts. But the lure of ones own foundation can be irresistible.
For starters, theres the cachet. You might
never be as wealthy as Bill Gates or fellow
Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen, possess the
glamour and allure of Richard Gere or the business savvy of Jack Welch, let alone the political connections of former President Bill Clinton.
But, just like them, you can have your own
philanthropic foundation. It can be named after you and grant money in your name to a
range of causes you fervently believe in now
and for decades after your death.
But the biggest reason to set up a foundation is to exert firm control over the process of
giving. A foundation allows the donors and the
Heavy hitters
Heres a sampling of the most prominent family
foundations
Silicon Valley
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
William & Flora Hewlett Foundation
David & Lucile Packard Foundation
Gordon & Betty Moore Foundation
US$28.8 bil
US$6.47 bil
US$5.3 bil
US$5 bil
Old guard
Ford Foundation
Lilly Endowment
Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
WK Kellogg Foundation
Andrew W Mellon Foundation
US$10.5 bil
US$8.6 bil
US$8.3 bil
US$6.8 bil
US$5.3 bil
Fast growers
Buffett Foundation
US$2.7 bil
Including US$2.6 billion of Berkshire
Hathaway stock it is due to receive from
the late Susan Buffetts estate
John Templeton Foundation
US$895 mil
It recently received US$550 million
from Sir John Templeton
Jack Kent Cooke Foundation
US$541 mil
It grew 50% after receiving a bequest
from Cookes estate
trustees they name to dispense charitable largesse to the causes of their choice. The main
requirements: that they pay out at least 5% of
their assets each year in grants and pay 2% of
their net investment income in an excise tax.
If you have chosen to set up a foundation,
its because you see having control as a big
plus, says Tim Walter, CEO of the Association
of Small Foundations in Bethesda, Maryland.
That incentive has moved to the fore as
many charitable groups that were often the
recipients of individual largesse have ended
up in the spotlight because of conflicts of interest, incompetence or outright fraud and
abuse. Most donors vividly recall the fall from
grace of William Aramony, the former CEO
of United Way of America, who in 1995 was
convicted of fraud and sentenced to seven
years in a federal prison.
Three years ago, the head of the Washington, DC branch of United Way was found to
have stolen US$497,000 from the organisation.
Even the Red Cross hit a bumpy patch when
it was disclosed that it allocated donations in
the wake of the Sept 11 terrorist attacks to a
reserve fund, a long-standing practice that it
hadnt publicised to donors. Its hardly sur-
30/11/05, 9:04 pm
Tighter control
If many more cases like those come to light,
there could well be a regulatory backlash. Two
years ago, William Josephson, then supervisor of charities under New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, proposed outlawing all private foundations with less than US$20 million, saying they were too hard to police. The
idea didnt take hold, and Josephson has since
retired. But a similar plan could well come
from another regulator at some point.
Already, foundation operators face a
goodly amount of legal requirements and administrative headaches. Foundations must
convene formal meetings, create a board, file
tax returns and manage assets, as well as research their giving activities.
Running a foundation also means keeping
an eye on how the funds are invested and ensuring that the investment policy will yield
enough return to keep funding the programmes
that trustees designate. Thats something that
PERSONAL WEALTH
grants to build playgrounds, fund music-education programmes and press for the creation
of effective pre-kindergarten education.
David Nee, executive director of the
US$100 million William Caspar Graustein
Memorial Fund, joined what was then a very
small foundation in 1991. While it had a tiny
endowment, its mission was potentially immense, and unfocused: funding pre-collegiate
education initiatives in the US Northeast. But
the son of the foundations creator was about
to redirect a large trust fund into the foundation, and wanted to ensure the money would
be well spent.
We established an advisory group, and
went to interview a wide array of individuals
Spw_4n5_S194.pmd
30/11/05, 9:04 pm
| DECEMBER 5, 2005
PERSONAL WEALTH
By measuring the change in the NAV over time (after adjustment for reinvestment of dividends), one can
measure the investment ability of the fund management
company and the approximate returns an investor would
have received after deducting any front-end load or sales
charges.
To ensure that fair comparisons are being made, the
funds are broken down by type or sector of investment.
Within each sector, the funds are listed alphabetically with
their ranking, which shows the position of each fund
against its peers for each time period.
Average indicates the mean performance of all the funds
in the sector and the number of funds with data over that
time period. Wherever NA is displayed, it means that either
the fund has not been in existence over that time period or
the fund company has not supplied the necessary data.
/
The Edge-Lipper Fund Performance Table, compiled by
fund analysis company Lipper Asia Ltd enables existing investors to monitor the performance of their unit trusts and
assists first-time investors in their selection of unit trusts.
How to read the table
The table shows the performance of each of the funds over
the last one and six months, in addition to one, three and
five years. The performance is calculated on an NAV (net
asset value)-to-NAV basis with all dividends reinvested. The
NAV per unit is calculated daily by most funds by taking
the current market value of the unit trusts total assets, deducting all outstanding charges and then dividing the net
assets by the total number of units issued.
and are based on an equal-weighted average of percentile ranks for Consistent Return, Preservation and Total
Return metrics over three-year periods. The highest 20%
of funds in each peer group are named Lipper Leaders,
the next 20% receive a score of 2, the middle 20% are
scored 3, the next 20% are scored 4, and the lowest 20%
are scored 5. Lipper ratings are not intended to predict
future results, and Lipper does not guarantee the accuracy of this information. More information is available
at www.lipperleaders.com.
Total Return: Lipper ratings for Total Return reflect
funds historical total return performance relative
to peers.
Consistent Return: Lipper ratings for Consistent Return reflect funds historical risk-adjusted returns, adjusted for volatility, relative to peers.
Preservation: Lipper ratings for Preservation reflect
funds historical loss avoidance relative other funds
within the same asset class.
About Lipper
Lipper, a wholly owned subsidiary of Reuters, is a leading
global provider of mutual fund information and analysis
to fund companies, financial intermediaries and media organisations. Founded in 1973 and headquartered in New
York, the firm tracks 125,000 funds worldwide through its
offices in major financial capitals in North America, Europe, and Asia.
Renowned for the high standard of accuracy in the
fund markets of US and Europe, Lipper today provides information to fund companies representing more than 95
per cent of US fund assets. Lipper entered the Asian markets more than five years ago, and now operates in nine
Asian countries.
14.29
28
17.24
27
67.9
25
37.37
26
31.31
8.19
8.86
20.26
50.02
184.21
11.65
30
16.24
28
62.3
29
41.92
23
8.75
NAME
8.97
8.74
18.94
60.09
765.16
12.88
29
16.11
29
NAME
1.94
6.48
7.25
15.94
40.15
28.96
6.17
6.33
15.7
57.17
895.25
3.04
3.87
22.82
62.8
11.89
6.46
33
3.67
3.04
3.45
18.64
31.25
LEADER
33.87
4.16
35
20.08
39.81
LEADER
4.2
2.49
1.12
1.89
11.04
2.13
502.07
-1.39
-1.65
7.02
34.66
AVERAGE (12)
283.72
4.58
17.42
46.99
80
64.01
27
38.7
25
LEADER
9.32
32
94.23
59.27
10
5.99
33
68.2
24
33.98
30
84.87
59.78
77.97
13
56.96
12
75.78
33
56.52
32
2
5.61
34
34
5.33
35
17.15
0.66
37
5.23
36
61
38
0.94
37
15.67
25
259.91
15.83
38
18.91
37
470.02
38.59
48.13
123.8
96.54
201.27
31.78
39.6
111.49
94.78
2415.97
32.04
39.53
128.93
111.54
LEADER
4
49.78
8.44
8.2
AVERAGE (41)
28.8
88.65
31
36
30
9.76
4.65
BOND: GLOBAL
14.34
32
3.36
31
7.52
9.1
25.96
9.73
435.96
369.03
1888.58
141.8
2.86
RANK
RANK
5-YEAR
11/27/2000
11/25/2005
1-YEAR
11/25/2004
11/25/2005
RANK
3-YEAR
11/25/2002
11/25/2005
12/31/2004
11/25/2005
RANK
1-YEAR
11/25/2004
11/25/2005
RANK
LIPPER RATINGS
CAPITAL CONSISTENT
PRESERVATION
RETURN
SCORE
SCORE
10/31/2005
10/31/2005
5-YEAR
11/27/2000
11/25/2005
RANK
3-YEAR
11/25/2002
11/25/2005
RANK
LIPPER RATINGS
CAPITAL CONSISTENT
PRESERVATION
RETURN
SCORE
SCORE
10/31/2005
10/31/2005
RANK
7.15
7.83
207.21
0
175.72
0.17
3480.84
5.1
4.88
5.94
18
1137.04
1.95
4.16
27.83
47.27
LEADER
66.93
1.87
2.46
16.33
35.79
LEADER
6.18
17
16.75
16
1437.9
31.94
37.96
109.89
92.19
280.75
28.85
36.67
97.4
10
84.83
114.56
29.18
35.89
114.69
75.05
155.49
29.75
34.8
123.01
90.38
65.12
28
34.45
111.32
67.16
10
662.99
24.86
10
31.04
110.27
102.16
4.67
0.91
1.12
GROWTHPATH TODAY
26.09
-0.23
1.11
53.89
0.76
1.03
101.14
-0.82
11
0.93
139.99
0.25
0.28
220.51
-2.33
15
0.27
11.49
11
30.43
10
10
3.05
19
13.11
17
LEADER
11
18.02
34.98
13.38
23.47
12
30.09
10
53.67
23.6
11
29.6
11
105.59
94.48
38.72
30.07
12
36.16
11
113.64
10
90.91
10
1.87
10
0.11
12
9.13
16
24.75
15
LEADER
-1.81
13
-0.32
13
31.08
64.39
LEADER
34.29
-0.47
1766.84
-2.12
14
-0.66
14
76.3
58.6
-1.49
12
-0.92
15
14.92
31.93
LEADER
1561.56
86.24
-2.75
16
-1.69
16
12.23
10
32.63
265.92
630.22
-3.08
17
-2.39
17
18.12
38.23
992.65
152.48
-3.83
18
-2.75
18
11.44
12
28.87
11
AVERAGE (15)
584.5
83.2
-5.58
20
-3.97
19
14
31.59
EQUITY: EUROPE
31.65
19
-4.45
20
12.6
-6.2
21
-4.72
21
13.08
65.19
-6.57
22
-5.31
22
9.92
14
25.59
14
7.83
-6.68
23
-5.45
23
10.3
13
25.63
13
431.01
-7.8
25
-5.67
24
38.04
-8.15
26
-5.79
25
2.95
-6.87
24
-6.01
26
9.22
15
28.13
12
313.2
26.71
109.78
50.49
LEADER
19.31
90.64
71.55
LEADER
11.56
11.65
18.43
51.32
18
0.67
13
556.72
10.54
16.98
1454.06
10.94
15.95
77.92
LEADER
1409.58
9.89
10
15.5
68.19
-10.7
16
LEADER
LEADER
12.4
-1.76
26
-0.68
26
13.42
19
31.87
235.02
5.17
16.19
1.7
1.93
6.19
11.46
37.72
153.22
3.39
LEADER
LEADER
0.32
0.47
4.26
10.55
LEADER
LEADER
14.17
106.55
0.35
4.7
LEADER
0.34
0.09
0.29
2.04
LEADER
15.9
-1.23
-0.62
6.22
LEADER
LEADER
LEADER
CITIBOND SINGAPORE A
-0.78
1.27
-0.8
3.91
3.09
-2.1
10
-1.54
-2.08
11.24
452.88
93.52
-0.21
10
0.5
5.6
11.85
904
24.66
30.31
82.42
28.22
LEADER
129.05
23.56
56.79
22.29
18.62
22.86
65.78
25.28
57.71
19.19
71.5
16.8
20.33
76.07
43.41
LEADER
LEADER
3.7
15.11
17.71
87.03
48.36
7.75
12.4
15.79
53.8
-0.21
LEADER
11.48
10.83
15.51
109.71
68.46
LEADER
LEADER
539.69
7.85
9.78
963.21
13.18
298.68
15.41
19.48
75.94
33.69
1387.18
27.21
29.75
84.31
57.12
11
343.4
24.7
29.57
112.05
137.24
LEADER
LEADER
558.2
23.85
27.59
81.82
12
56.71
13
29.1
23.66
27.23
70.42
19
35.56
27
21.72
25.16
64.42
26
26.13
32
1804.92
22.67
24.56
104.16
115.49
LEADER
LEADER
AVERAGE (9)
33.55
9.39
12
14.34
63.63
10.17
14.25
10
54.6
14
8.3
15
13.92
11
56.45
10
2635.66
7.59
19
13.68
12
15
4
-2.04
8.65
9.33
13
13.44
13
52.1
17
12.51
693.4
10.07
13.44
14
54.33
15
14.83
15.39
10.88
13.09
15
43.18
22
-22.42
19
23.7
8.14
16
12.2
16
47.88
20
2.01
12
76.18
7.54
20
12.03
17
54.74
13
0.04
14
477.06
7.76
18
11.82
18
55.05
12
7.2
38.44
6.21
26
11.26
19
49.58
19
2.44
10
566.01
6.41
24
10.9
20
100.14
6.76
22
10.84
21
52.77
16
3.66
492.79
7.95
17
10.79
22
41.51
23
-15.87
17
229.37
7.12
21
10.31
23
69.8
44.49
LEADER
6.27
6.5
23
10.08
24
47.19
21
2.34
11
8.83
6.36
25
10.06
25
35.83
24
-21.53
18
13.6
4.22
28
9.02
26
55.97
11
13.62
4.6
5.07
27
8.38
27
61.83
227.26
-1.57
29
2.55
28
39.02
0
34.59
12.99
1806.24
8.72
29
13.16
28
59.54
24
8.72
19
743.9
11.77
16.93
68.18
12.81
33
10.23
16.87
64.41
8.99
17.06
9.89
14.82
57.86
12.8
501.87
14.49
80.5
30.45
LEADER
0.12
9.37
14.21
68.57
259.19
AVERAGE (31)
10.05
15.46
67.9
16.26
EQUITY: EUROPE EX UK
HENDERSON EUROPEAN
HORIZON EUROPEAN EQUITY SGD
INVESCO CONTINENTAL EUROPEAN EQUITY A
60.65
74.13
13.98
AVERAGE (12)
FIDELITY FUNDS - PACIFIC FUND
14.4
-1.24
67.1
14.81
14
-1.01
6.43
11
9.31
29.95
9.68
25.2
25.97
INDUSTRIA
17
BOND: SGD
528.62
4332.16
42.5
AVERAGE (28)
18.66
14.91
32.09
3345.24
-5.46
3.6
38579.79
22.83
2368.08
14.26
24.35
119.67
17.24
237.76
13.37
23.09
130.24
22.45
LEADER
LEADER
269.93
14.21
21.06
93.54
9.44
1.85
12.97
20.81
130.91
19.8
21.67
24.1
52.09
33
35.26
28
203.96
20.7
23.98
84.56
65.9
259.98
20
10
23.25
68.46
22
49.31
16
43.76
21.53
23.16
10
98.83
106.06
LEADER
LEADER
20.4
19.78
12
23
11
76.46
14
47.3
19
33.99
29
LEADER
EQUITY: EUROZONE
394.34
9.95
15.49
85.95
48.64
5.01
9.55
96.07
15.17
553.43
11.63
19.06
109.4
16.08
1272.34
12.51
18.89
89.86
1694.96
11.33
17.25
68.06
15.95
566.5
9.48
14.68
63.91
19.63
4055.05
7.04
13.1
84.08
32.47
LEADER
2
4
LEADER
3.11
19.91
11
22.96
12
60.06
31
78.34
18.4
17
22.67
13
88.79
95.12
16.94
21
21.99
14
69.58
21
54.17
14
404.38
19.27
14
21.61
15
71.53
18
44.96
20
18.02
18.83
15
21.43
16
69.67
20
39.42
24
788.21
6.96
11.34
56.38
-0.11
170.86
6.52
9.95
42.82
-14.24
878.94
4.03
9.33
98.91
LEADER
LEADER
1346.69
8.27
13.51
72
105.31
13
21.05
17
68.22
23
51.95
15
17.38
20
21.02
18
83.4
10
91.3
LEADER
7.46
15.47
26
20.95
19
72.76
16
47.33
18
AVERAGE (7)
879.49
16.42
22
20.84
20
63.26
28
43.56
22
EQUITY: FRANCE
15.5
18.12
18
20.79
21
83.19
11
72.04
133.93
18.49
16
20.72
22
61.06
30
48.49
17
AVERAGE (1)
27
19.26
23
57.47
32
32.53
31
23
19.25
24
72.01
17
64.4
17.48
19
18.92
25
15.97
24
18.89
26
154.46
16.06
24.95
84.81
18.83
16.06
24.95
84.81
18.83
1860.09
13.74
19.8
98.93
8.24
339.63
13.64
57.88
-9.98
11.37
16.72
78.4
-0.87
EQUITY: GERMANY
16.05
74.74
14.88
251.52
1099.86
5.9
10.74
154.46
89.39
Spw_6n7_S194.pmd
19.38
1141.45
15
44.51
21
AVERAGE (2)
1.12.05, 8:37 pm
69.4
NAME
EQUITY: GLOBAL
UOB OPTIMIX CONTRARIAN FUND
-6.42
25
16.8
28.04
31.81
93.31
LEADER
LEADER
83.92
22.13
27.98
89.77
LEADER
261.8
21.65
24.76
63.98
17.21
LEADER
LEADER
16.55
15
21.53
14
66.59
14
21.25
15
77.33
12.16
2
5
48.68
15.24
17
20.06
16
46.1
15
-0.92
1074.7
15.54
16
19.99
17
52.16
13
1.66
9.12
12.26
19
18
18
69.22
19
INTERGLOBAL
21.32
56.56
13
-5.25
22
1.9
13.59
18
17
21.04
53.85
18
-4.63
21
LEADER
10
7.59
22
14.08
20
41.92
17
17.94
20.96
54.58
16
13.43
70.29
10.23
20
13.25
21
54.64
12
6.32
13
16.92
16.96
20.57
56.89
12
-5.82
24
LEADER
FTF - JAPAN A
65.11
14.75
168.48
16.6
19.8
19.73
10
43.28
32
14
19.71
11
55.52
-12.02
14.92
12
19.12
12
54.85
15
7.05
-4.55
12
20
LEADER
11
18.55
13
14.18
15
18.22
14
46.42
26
13.93
16
17.8
15
41.84
33
11.2
3.23
13.91
17
17.64
16
65.4
-14.5
33
LEADER
3.93
13.18
20
17.31
17
44.19
30
-9.42
26
LEADER
22.15
13.81
18
17.19
18
79.77
7.6
11
LEADER
218.47
13.34
19
16.8
19
61.68
34.08
LEADER
LEADER
50.17
12.93
21
16.66
20
37.56
36
LEADER
1630.52
11.91
25
16.52
21
58.88
11
8.23
10
LEADER
LEADER
6.78
12.69
23
16.25
22
29.61
46
-5.39
23
133.57
12.83
22
16.22
23
15.1
11.65
27
16.03
24
48.03
23
LEADER
12.41
24
15.99
25
45.71
29
LEADER
23.93
11.02
33
15.79
26
6.07
11.58
28
15.73
27
38.73
34
-15.27
34
LEADER
477.48
11.67
26
15.65
28
47.79
24
3.08
16
141.45
11.55
29
15.57
29
44.08
31
6.64
13
77.12
11.54
30
15.16
30
45.81
28
-3.3
19
LEADER
24.8
11.24
32
14.81
31
46.92
25
18
LEADER
117.36
11.47
31
14.41
32
34.91
40
-11.65
27
102.32
10.2
36
13.97
33
29.19
47
-22.6
36
LEADER
5.67
10.8
34
13.65
34
51.58
20
12.21
131.59
10.36
35
13.6
35
48.32
22
6.02
15
LEADER
200.82
9.64
38
13.34
36
35.6
38
-12.08
29
2.73
9.94
37
12.95
37
34.76
41
-21.36
35
690.54
8.47
45
12.77
38
59.99
10
LEADER
LEADER
10.5
8.15
47
12.76
39
69.05
LEADER
LEADER
9.15
41
12.74
40
37.92
35
-12.86
30
38.99
8.82
42
12.25
41
36.9
37
6.43
14
LEADER
20.8
8.62
44
11.88
42
53.05
19
20.72
LEADER
21.9
40
11.66
43
66.97
LEADER
LEADER
7.56
50
11.53
44
34.34
42
78.62
9.27
160.87
9.63
39
11.49
45
27.87
48
-13.57
31
78.67
8.4
46
11.26
46
33.37
43
1.37
17
18.25
8.76
43
10.72
47
35.33
39
31.34
LEADER
27.88
85.19
7.93
48
10.64
48
23.92
50
972.72
7.46
51
10.6
49
54.27
17
12.66
7.65
49
9.84
50
45.87
27
57.03
6.9
52
9.77
51
30.05
45
LEADER
LEADER
5.82
52
17.99
51
9.46
53
50.87
21
5.32
57
8.79
54
25.32
49
3.43
ACCUMULATOR
9.74
53
5.99
54
8.71
55
32.35
44
-13.9
32
46.29
56
6.55
0.9
5.61
54.51
5.81
55
7.8
-23.69
37
LEADER
56
22.98
1.95
0.38
59
3.09
57
12.33
54
48.77
0.92
58
2.56
58
15.69
52
LEADER
-1.18
60
1.2
59
55
-3.49
61
60
13.7
53
38.97
15.24
10
190.51
11.4
61
14.86
60
45.2
55
0.52
37
43.4
11.09
15.16
71.57
42.49
LEADER
39.2
7.24
13.7
109.72
119.06
LEADER
254.23
9.64
13.12
80.66
74.14
14.5
8.7
11.95
76.45
67.29
87.83
9.17
13.49
84.6
75.74
33.7
19.99
21.18
94.65
50.22
190.82
14.36
18.47
107.1
68.27
LEADER
LEADER
60.02
AXA WM - TALENTS
AVERAGE (63)
AVERAGE (4)
15.64
17.59
95.19
104.17
60.18
13.68
16.93
73.05
36.29
14.83
14.81
16.75
88.52
457.72
13.05
15.13
59.08
11
101.88
83.39
82.05
30.03
101
13.92
13.84
364.56
12.93
12.94
13.44
10.44
13
12.27
0.93
12.86
10
11.97
10
75.19
12.51
12
11.55
11
113.75
125.47
LEADER
384.02
12.52
11
11.46
12
93.36
70.76
23.55
4.78
14
10.87
13
72.03
10
40.19
26.36
84.35
16.64
13.44
14
14.69
13
89.27
11
67.49
165.27
12.85
13.7
104.42
57.91
165.27
AVERAGE (1)
12.85
13.7
104.42
57.91
LEADER
35.73
53.26
206.29
100.79
35.73
53.26
206.29
100.79
41.7
16.14
20.38
133.91
193.24
174.08
1.96
4.21
132.79
129.72
107.89
9.05
12.29
133.35
161.48
7.6
42.46
27.12
6.32
32.89
9.78
LEADER
LEADER
0.65
18.32
-5.49
5.44
7.72
44.52
23.22
23.04
1
2
52.68
6.33
83922.9
10.24
13
19.79
17.72
15
-6.73
11.98
15.48
19.75
42.65
DBS US GROWTH
11.03
15.69
18.62
26.17
12
-28.23
11
10.2
14.85
18.6
54.68
-21.24
LEADER
42.84
2.56
15.55
18.42
0.25
12.52
14.87
113.98
12.24
14.34
20.96
13
-53.36
12
8.36
10.79
11
13.74
10
32.95
-11.37
8.62
10.43
12
13.72
11
1167.76
11.11
10
13.44
12
17.19
16
-15.27
2201.95
9.78
14
12.2
13
34.34
LEADER
2207.03
9.6
16
11.75
14
38.27
36.54
LEADER
401.36
9.68
15
11.67
15
30.96
-11.61
LEADER
14.35
9.07
17
11.43
16
28.12
11
30.2
8.94
18
11.15
17
30.9
-8.55
LEADER
1.2
5.51
19
8.94
18
30.69
10
-19.59
LEADER
-25.31
10
0.85
3.96
21
7.03
19
20.49
14
129.63
INVESCO US EQUITY A
3.96
20
5.38
20
12.6
17
8.33
-1.21
22
1.11
21
13.81
21
31.42
17
-13.2
12
43.9
12705.13
26.85
15.86
4623.8
10.94
22
156.52
19.9
27.3
66.85
8.1
15.57
22.54
58.98
59.08
15.54
20.1
196.85
14.68
18.81
54.97
22.69
35.85
AVERAGE (23)
10.65
17.29
51.36
34.59
0.94
12.11
16.67
49.62
23.4
18.42
11.21
15.53
54.55
20.2
AVERAGE (7)
67.97
14.24
19.75
56.05
28.96
5
5
51.1
13.05
21.4
45.13
1308.52
DIT-BIOTECHNOLOGIE
11.78
19.31
28.16
-19.8
35.41
9.08
14.83
41.38
-28.8
6.26
2.96
10.93
12.73
-49.79
350.32
9.22
16.62
31.85
-32.8
286.21
29.52
31.46
96.42
75.02
LEADER
0.07
8.35
11.59
40.66
1.08
143.14
AVERAGE (4)
18.94
21.52
68.54
38.05
27.09
20.33
110.05
225.15
27.18
27.09
20.33
110.05
225.15
-20.78
2.31
20.82
27.01
47.83
56.32
21.83
26.85
35.08
10
192.53
18.4
25.32
54.4
5.34
18.31
24.43
65.31
6.2
18.8
23.44
43.2
-20.6
95.6
16
22.33
41.67
-16.86
14.64
12.88
14.43
79.03
-37.73
LEADER
5.5
8.55
14
12.85
28.85
11
364.21
9.84
10
12.47
26.05
13
-42.27
100.32
61.63
100.32
61.63
1143.05
33.11
39.81
90.91
7.32
LEADER
79.7
26.38
30.18
136.24
39.39
LEADER
316.5
23.1
29.48
58.76
11
-6.47
11
51.4
24.14
28.56
89.67
20.9
LEADER
75.12
23.34
27.57
75.88
-1.93
LEADER
49.8
14
-20.32
14
25.59
25.43
LEADER
327.15
9.82
11
12.41
10
43.47
-62.32
15
LEADER
131.6
8.87
13
11.57
11
42.11
-62.91
16
LEADER
53.99
9.5
12
11.13
12
15.37
20
-42.86
401.52
9.96
10.77
13
20.63
16
-55.63
11
15.18
10.18
10.18
14
23.22
15
-18.57
403.69
6.44
19
9.6
15
18.79
18
-68.59
17
DIT-TECHNOLOGIEFONDS
SGAM ASIAN NEW ECONOMY
ABN AMRO INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY A USD
COMMERZBANK GLOBAL INFOTECHNOLOGY INDEX
5.6
7.67
15
8.6
16
23.86
14
-50.46
26.95
6.92
17
8.46
17
17.38
19
-59.17
14
20.44
4.9
21
8.08
18
14.44
22
-69.52
18
17.89
6.72
18
7.87
19
19.53
17
-72.85
19
133.6
7.27
16
7.87
20
28.19
12
-57.98
12
7.94
6.04
20
7.33
21
12.56
23
12.49
2.93
22
6.65
22
15.32
21
-54.16
10
1.45
1.21
24
4.94
23
12.1
24
-58.44
13
14.3
2.49
23
4.53
24
35.13
-14.18
10.26
24
13.3
24
31.81
24
-46.63
19
0
92.66
147.62
39.33
36.78
119.14
58.94
5.2
25.29
24.88
82.38
54.58
32.31
30.83
100.76
56.76
54.29
19.73
LEADER
54.29
19.73
152.08
101.63
151.03
7.3
11.25
184.32
7.98
10.57
167.68
7.64
10.91
21.24
20.55
24.63
99.83
21.86
22.63
55.2
19.34
21.65
71.54
70.23
LEADER
97.77
14.75
17.84
76.36
28.43
LEADER
LEADER
36.38
EQUITY: SINGAPORE
EQUITY: JAPAN
22.37
LEADER
23.27
23.27
19.13
AVERAGE (2)
21.48
606.67
15.24
5.69
15.24
LEADER
21.03
AVERAGE (3)
395.82
LEADER
395.82
LEADER
EQUITY: ITALY
68.4
20.06
EQUITY: INDONESIA
AVERAGE (1)
16.29
16.68
AVERAGE (25)
70.61
101.38
AVERAGE (2)
58.33
195.73
101.38
AVERAGE (1)
9.59
14.47
8.02
3167.05
147.66
AVERAGE (15)
12.35
384.28
56.79
15
15
0.11
42.73
-32.22
18
AVERAGE (1)
18
65.98
4.77
22.95
-1.9
AVERAGE (5)
11.51
PHILLIP GROWTH
22
22
3.06
12.36
22.97
36.81
102.64
21
22
SUT SAVINGS
15.06
10.05
9.7
18.26
UNIFUND
44.24
5
5
EQUITY: MALAYSIA/SINGAPORE
28
185.07
3
3
34.6
14
472.97
14.55
12
8.27
LEADER
16.59
8.2
-6.6
383.56
AVERAGE (22)
922.83
LIPPER RATINGS
CAPITAL CONSISTENT
PRESERVATION
RETURN
SCORE
SCORE
10/31/2005
10/31/2005
16.88
26.8
5-YEAR
11/27/2000
11/25/2005
717.04
3323.36
101.66
14.68
16.81
77.06
14.13
16.33
79.53
LEADER
LEADER
116.49
13.84
15.2
66.41
43.36
LEADER
175.94
10.86
13.27
56.65
10
38.55
LEADER
425.22
20.76
25.02
45.39
16
-19.82
13
16.9
10.89
12.29
70.26
40.33
LEADER
3439.57
18.36
10
24.16
70.3
-3.28
10
2.19
9.99
10
11.64
10
84.88
45.47
LEADER
LEADER
SHENTON THRIFT
64.97
5.66
11
6.04
11
109.24
83.56
LEADER
80.48
4.35
12
4.24
12
57.5
23.45
75.7
13.41
12
15.21
12
74.94
10
45.53
60.48
23.75
10
78.9
11.35
LEADER
23.15
11
60.8
10
0.41
17.28
12
22.94
12
132.21
11
20.83
31.77
18.33
114.81
Spw_6n7_S194.pmd
3-YEAR
11/25/2002
11/25/2005
0.33
1-YEAR
11/25/2004
11/25/2005
RANK
37.63
RANK
LIPPER RATINGS
CAPITAL CONSISTENT
PRESERVATION
RETURN
SCORE
SCORE
10/31/2005
10/31/2005
RANK
33.43
5-YEAR
11/27/2000
11/25/2005
RANK
3-YEAR
11/25/2002
11/25/2005
RANK
1-YEAR
11/25/2004
11/25/2005
3.6
NAME
RANK
RANK
PERSONAL WEALTH
16.98
13
22.16
13
AVERAGE (13)
1.12.05, 8:37 pm
| DECEMBER 5, 2005
PERSONAL WEALTH
FUND WATCH
10 best-performing funds (Nov 18-25)
ABN AMRO INDIA EQTY USD A
4.49
4.12
2.53
2.47
2.45
2.29
OCBC KOREA FD
2.28
2.22
DBS US GROWTH
2.18
2.17
0
-1.15
-1.20
-1.21
-1.28
-1.31
-1.33
-1.68
-2.01
-2.87
-3.02
% Chg -3.5 -3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
5.15
3.95
3.91
HENDERSON JAPANESE EQ
3.85
3.32
3.29
3.28
3.25
3.25
2.92
3
DIT-EUROPAZINS
0.85
0.73
0.70
0.56
0.53
0.48
0.45
0.08
0.08
0
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2.34
2.16
EQUITY KOREA
2.15
INDUSTRIALS
2.15
0.5
1.92
2.0
1.5
1.0
2.5
-0.67
TRANSPORTATION
EQUITY THAILAND
-0.96
-0.96
-1.03
% Chg -1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
Spw_8_S194.pmd
To buy or to sell?
-0.84
87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
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87654321098765432121098765432109876543210987654321
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The most commonly cited reason for investors to stay invested for the long term rather than pull out at the first sign of
trouble is that missing the potential recovery when the market turns up will significantly reduce their overall returns.
Estimates of the potential impact of missing the markets upside vary depending on whom you ask. But some commentators say that missing the 10 best days in a year could cut
your return by more than half. It is worth noting, however,
that advocates of market timing would counter that point
with this one: Missing the worst 10 days would boost your
returns significantly.
I sought to test these theories by looking at the daily returns over the past five years of the Aberdeen Pacific Equity
fund, a unit trust that invests in Asia ex-Japan equities. I then
sorted out the funds returns to isolate the 10 worst and 10
best days in each year. The cumulative figures are illustrated
in the table.
What do these numbers demonstrate? Missing out on
the 10 best-performing days definitely has a significant adverse impact on overall returns. In three of the five years,
the cumulative returns from the 10 best days far exceed
the returns for the whole year. On the flipside, the figures
also showed that investors would have greatly benefited
from staying out of the fund during its 10 worst-performing days, potentially improving returns by between 12%
and 25%.
The big question is whether investors could have successfully predicted the 10 worst days and sold out of the
fund in time. According to the data, it is a long shot. The
investor would not only need to be savvy but clairvoyant as
well. According to daily price data of the Aberdeen Pacific
1.12.05, 8:23 pm
2002
2003
-18.73
16.62
-0.33
-15.63
19.16
51.90
2004
2005*
-21.11 -12.16
18.19 11.64
13.64 23.12