GID Sept 11

AN IIPM THINK TANK & GREAT INDIAN
DREAM FOUNDATION JOURNAL

Dream
Great
Indian
R E T H I N K E D I F Y D E L I N E A T E
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SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHALLENGES OF
ESCALATING GLOBAL DESERTIFICATION:
WATER AND FOOD CRISIS
DESERTED
Exclusive
Columns
LUC GNACADJA,
Executive Secretary, UNCCD
BHIM ADHIKARI,
United Nations University
THE INDIA
ECONOMY REVIEW

THE GREAT INDIAN
DREAM
A N I I P M T H I N K T A N K & G R E A T I N D I A N
D R E A M F O U N D A T I O N J O U R N A L
TO TAKE
FORWARD THE
PHILOSOPHY
OF COMMITMNET
TO OUR GREAT
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EPITOMISED
IN THE PATH
BREAKING BOOK
THE
GREAT
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PRAISES FOR THE GID
Dream
Great
Indian
Te
Kanan Dhru
Founder, Research Founda-
tion for Governance in India
Rabin Majumder
Advocate on Record,
Supreme Court of India
Stephen Lea
Professor of Psychology,
University of Exeter
Gaurav Shah
CMD & CIO
IndiaSocial Fund
As India marches towards
conquering a center-stage
in the global affairs and is
being discussed in almost
all global forums, it
becomes increasingly
important for the Indians
- across the world - to
undertake thoughtful
study of issues of concern
within and without.
Thorough research,
engaging analysis and
careful debate, thus,
become extremely crucial,
especailly at this point of
time. Initiatives such as
The Great Indian Dream
by the IIPM Think Tank
create the much-needed
platform in furthering
such dialogues and
carrying out the innovative
exploration into socio-
economic spaces in India.
Kudos to the team for such
commendable work.
One feels young by seeing
its ex facie presentation
and contents thereof. The
editorial team senses the
catching minds of the
writers and viewers.
The Great Indian Dream
journal as a whole looks
excellent and intellectual.
The contents list is also
very interesting and
comprehensive.
This knowledge based
initiative is great
information resource for
the readers and potentially
change the way we think
about them.
Shailendra Sharma
Programme Director,
Pratham, New Delhi
Ana Lapuh
Journalist and writer,
Slovenia
Alamgir Alam
Former Speaker,
Jharkhand
The journal has a
collection of perspectives
on issues concerning
different sections of
society but its long term
impact is on all of us.
The columns in the Journal
looks rather dashing,
excellently designed. At the
same time the Journal is
full of rich content and
covers wide range of topics.
The GID has done a great
job by successfully
exploring several serious
children related issues
which have direct impact
on our society and country.
D
ream
G
re
a
t
In
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ian
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AN IIPM THINK TANK & GREAT INDIAN
DREAM FOUNDATION JOURNAL
T e
M
AJOR
ON M
INORS
MAJOR POLICY FAILURES
THAT DEPRIVE MINORS OF
PROPITIOUS ENVIRONMENT
FOR SURVIVAL AND GROWTH
Malnourishment is just not
about calorie de ciency
MALNOURISHED MI NORS 10
Why India needs to invest
in developing skills?
POLICY PERSPECTIVE 30
RATIONALE OF I RRATIONALITY 38
Where economics and
psychology met!
Please send your feedback to: sray.agarwal@iipm.edu
4 T H E I N D I A E C O N O MY R E V I E W
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CREDITS
(F)ACT SHEET
We have become a Garbage Nation with so much Wastage!
Prasoon S. Majumdar............................................. ...........................................
05
Cowboy or Spaceship Economy
Siddhartha Mitra................................................................................................
06
Virtual Water Trade: Panacea for Water Scarcity
M. Dinesh Kumar & O. P. Singh ......................................................................
10
Drylands and Desertication: Challenges & Opportunities
Bhim Adhikari ............................. ........................................................................
14
Food Security and Life in Soils
Gopikrishna SR................................. ........................................... .......................
18
Desertication and Food Crisis in India: What Media can Do?
Mrinal Chatterjee ......................................... .....................................................
20
Stranded on Dryland: Future of South Asia
Sowmya Suryanarayanan..................... ...........................................................
24
Is there Political will to End these Dj Vu Drought Tragedies?
Luc Gnacadja............................. .........................................................................
28
The G-20 Agriculture Talks Trap
Mercin Menkes............ .......................................................................................
30
Too Many Empty Bowls
R.B. Bhagat ............................. ............................................................................
34
Axing the Forests
Prabha Panth ............................. .........................................................................
38
Cover Design by : Satyajit Datta
5 T H E G R E AT I N D I A N D R E A M
The First Words and The Last Word
Editorial
WE HAVE BECOME A
GARBAGE NATION WITH
SO MUCH WASTAGE!
A
s a child, whenever I used to nd excuses for not
eating and waste thereby, my mom used to rep-
rimand me by saying, if you dishonour food by
wasting it then some day food would dishonour you.
She used to keep reminding us that there are hundreds
of families out there for whom even to manage a mere
handful of rice is a daily struggle. This childhood learn-
ing had created such an impact that none in my family
ever wasted even a grain of food served. But on the
same aspect our nation presents a dichotomy when it
comes to wastage. Be it food, electricity, water, or for
anything which is termed in the dictionary of econom-
ics as a scarce resource is squandered to an extent that,
if they are restored, it can by itself take care of all short-
ages and scarcities India is currently facing. Let us start
with food, our most critical resource, for which almost
300 million Indians struggle for, day in and day out.
According to a study undertaken at the behest of Min-
istry of Food Processing Industries, India wastes agri-
cultural food items over a staggering $12 billion annu-
ally. To get the gure in the right perspective, this
wasted produce is enough to feed Indias over 200 mil-
lion people, without even calling for marginal or any
production increase.
Thats food, and now power. The abuse of electricity
is so rampant that it has resulted in astronomical wast-
ages. Way back in 2002, it was projected that our econ-
omy can conserve $12 billion by 2005 simply by impro-
vising efciency in power generation and eliminating
transmission and distribution bottlenecks. It goes with-
out saying that nothing close to this benchmark has
been achieved so far. Whats more, if we were to con-
sider the energy efciency (in addition to electricity),
the situation is even more dispiriting. For, D. H. Pai
Panandiker of RPG Foundation bemoans the ridicu-
lous excesses: to manufacture Rs.1 crore of GDP, India
deploys four times as much energy resources as Japan
or UK and 2.7 times as Brazil does. Moreover, massive
power loss during transmission and distribution (which
is pegged at 45 per cent) due to rampant power thefts
which amount to a staggering 1.5 per cent of GDP. Cur-
Prasoon S. Majumdar, Executive Editor
rently, around 500 million people live with the regular
problem of power-cuts. This boils down to a loss of
$12.5 billion, all due to T&D inefciency. The same
holds true for water too. Here too our scale of water
wastage is frightening, and even more frightening is
our ruthless ignorance towards it. The World Bank
report of October 2005 stated that while developed
countries have provisions for storage of nearly 5,000
cubic metres per capita and other developing countries
like China, South Africa have made storage facility for
at least 1,000 cubic metres per capita, India barely
stores 30 days of rainfall. No doubt the public water
system is the major cause of water shortages. Delhi
government (supplies 220 liters of water per capita per
day) is still clueless about stealing of its 50 per cent of
total water supply! Thus, after the loss, the government
is left with merely 110 litres of water per capita per day!
Consider this: A random survey of 27,000 household
connections in Ahmedabad revealed that 25 per cent
of the water was wasted, owing to leakages in the sys-
tem. Regardless of the results of this micro-study, one
can safely presume that the case in other cities and
towns would be no different.
All in all, this wastage phenomenon is ubiquitous as
far as India is concerned. But what is amazing is the
irony this phenomenon depicts. How is it that the soci-
ety known for its frugality can at the same time indulge
in so much wastage and be silent about it? If my mom
reprimands us for wasting even a grain of rice then so
is the case with all such moms across the country. It is
sad that we have miserably failed to translate our home
grown lessons for our universal good!! Hopefully we
would...someday..
Happy reading.
Best,
Prasoon S. Majumdar
6 T H E I I P M T H I N K T A N K
ing might have underestimated the
multidimensionality of human progress:
as civilization progresses and the scarci-
ties mentioned by Boulding crop up,
societies might switch to exploiting pos-
sible paths/dimensions of progress that
have hitherto been unexploited. Below,
I build on these foundations by drawing
on the lessons which we can derive from
history; recent trends in human behav-
iour that have just begun to emerge as
the scarcities mentioned by Boulding
become more imminent; rudimentary
economic analysis; and of course, cheer-
ful optimism!
Let us start with history and the case
study of the industrial revolution in Brit-
ain which began around the mid-eight-
eenth century and later spread through
United States and the rest of Europe.
Robert Lucas Jr. describes the transfor-
mation brought about by the industrial
revolution in the following manner:
For the rst time in history, the liv-
ing standards of the masses of ordinary
people have (had) begun to undergo
sustained growth ... Nothing remotely
like this economic behavior has (had)
happened before
But as Charles Dickens remarks
(though in a totally different vein) in his
novel set in 19
th
century Europe, It was
the best of times, it was the worst of
times. This is because history tells us
that economic growth was obtained
through a shocking rape of air and
water resources.
Rivers became a burial ground for
waste products from the growing manu-
facturing sector producing output
through technologies that were much
dirtier than those in use today, and
those dumped by an ever growing
SIDDHARTHA MITRA
Professor of Economics,
Jadavpur University, Kolkata
Formerly: Director (Research),
CUTS International
COWBOY OR SPACESHIP
ECONOMY
Certain trajectories of human development are inevitable and
ultimately welfare enhancing and thus mankind will continue to
prosper on this seemingly constrained planet
W
e operate in a world of
mostly scarce or exhaust-
ible resources miner-
als, forests, sh, under-
ground water, air quality etc. This
scarcity is often said to be the reason for
the expected trade-off between environ-
mental conservation and income growth.
Thus, according to the conventional ar-
gument, as growth brings a country to
frontiers dened by resource availabili-
ties or tolerable levels of pollution, it
realises it is time to slow down.
The current recognition of the men-
tioned trade-off has however not been
associated with an adequate recall of
what transpired in the developed world
around two and a half centuries back
when the frontiers seemed very far off,
the prospects for economic advance-
ment rosy, and the average levels of
material afuence unsatisfactory. Ex-
actly the opposite choices were made
the resource base and the atmos-
pheric and aquatic environment were
plundered to race ahead and ll empty
stomachs and willing purses.
But this article is not be a critique of
the developed world, nor a piece written
in defence of the unprecedented pace
of development in emerging India and
China and in deance of Western at-
tempts to curb that pace. Rather, it is an
attempt to draw upon history to show
that certain trajectories of human devel-
opment are inevitable and ultimately
welfare enhancing; and to synergise
recent evidence and economic analysis
to express optimism that mankind will
continue to prosper on this seemingly
constrained planet.
The essence of my argument is based
on the contention that while very many
resources on this planet are scarce and
exhaustible and on the verge of dwin-
dling to miniscule levels in the course of
a few decades there are other such as
solar and wind energy that are not only
inexhaustible, but capable of becoming
better substitutes for their scarce and
exhaustible counterparts through the
use of human capital which continues to
appreciate through the processes of
learning and doing and research and
development; and yet others which are
renewable but exhaustible if depleted
rapidly (sheries, timber etc.) yet sustain-
able through an appropriate balance
between consumption and production.
In 1965 Adlai Stevenson, the US
ambassador to the United Nations
(UN) made a speech at the UN in which
he said We travel together, passengers
on a little space ship, dependent on its
vulnerable reserves of air and soil.
In 1966 Kenneth E. Boulding elabo-
rated on this phrase in the title of an
essay, The Economics of the Coming
Spaceship Earth. Boulding criticized
past characterizations of the world
economy as a cowboy economy with
unlimited resources and continued:
The closed economy of the future
might similarly be called the spaceman
economy, in which the earth has become
a single spaceship, without unlimited
reservoirs of anything, either for extrac-
tion or for pollution, and in which,
therefore, man must nd his place in a
cyclical ecological system.
But while Boulding correctly drew
attention to the scarcities and their con-
straining impacts, was the symbolic use
of the space ship appropriate? Above,
I have sketched out the foundations of
my argument which stresses that Bould-
A M I D S T A L T E R N A T I V E S DESERTED
8 T H E I I P M T H I N K T A N K 9 T H E G R E AT I N D I A N D R E A M
when no immediate and common disas-
ters confront the population, individual
actors rms and households be-
have atomistically i.e. they fail to take
into account the cumulative impact of
their actions. The impressive economic
growth seen in Britain during the 18
th

and the 19
th
century was a result of spec-
tacular advances in industry originating
from the mechanization of production
and consequent increase in the produc-
tivity of labour as well as opportunities
for its specialized application; and from
changes in agriculture with the enclo-
sure movement feeding industrys ap-
petite for cheap labour, and productiv-
ity increasing due to inventions of
sophisticated agricultural machines.
While this was the transformation
which took place at the level of the
economy, one has to realize that each
individual contributed his bit to the
overall story by either responding to the
entrepreneurial or employment oppor-
tunities provided by the industrial revo-
lution or through individual innovations.
Even the government contributed to
economic growth through the contro-
versial enclosure movement.
But, though individuals at a low level
of income strive for a betterment of
their economic conditions, they are of-
ten unable to fully anticipate the adverse
changes brought about by the accumula-
tion of the adverse side effects of their
While fast developing India and
China have seen rapidly rising pollution
levels, one has to realize that these
countries are decades behind the West-
ern World in terms of development
for example, the per capita income in
India is still at pre 20
th
century US lev-
els. As development takes the popula-
tion to higher levels of income, there is
no reason why the natural demand for
a cleaner environment will not lead to
pro-environment measures. Evidence
shows that China has responded faster
to the need for cleaning up the environ-
ment than Western countries did after
their industrial revolutions. Emphasis
has been placed in China on meeting
the countrys ever increasing power
demand a natural consequence of
economic growth through an in-
crease in the share of hydroelectric
power in total power production as well
as massive increases in solar cell and
wind turbine production.
In regard to the constraints posed by
the scarcity of exhaustible (non renew-
able, and renewable but exhaustible)
resources, two important trends need
to be pointed out.
First, all over the world, experiments
and pilot projects are being launched to
replace scarce non renewable sources
such as coal and oil with renewable and
inexhaustible sources of energy (such as
sunlight and wind).
Let us take one example power
consumption in the rural areas,
power can be captured through the use
of solar cells and then used later at
night; for the urban areas, pilot models
of near net zero energy homes, some-
times for entire communities, which
create almost as much as energy as they
consume over the year but smoothen
out daily surpluses and shortages
through interactions with the grid have
been set up; and nally reputed engi-
neering rms have come up with trac-
table models of thermal solar produc-
tion which involve conversion of solar
energy into steam and the use of the
resultant heat energy for production
and distribution of electricity through
a centralized grid.
Another reaction to scarcity is anti-
consumerism recently, the Buy
Nothing Day celebrated on the rst day
of Thanks Giving (the ofcial start of the
shopping season in the Anglo Saxon
world) attracted over one million sup-
porters spread over 40 countries. With
the internet generating an exponential
increase in the spread of ideas this
movement and similar ones might
spread rapidly. Related innovations
could be government efforts to discour-
age consumption of items that are inten-
sive in scarce materials through taxa-
tion, greater and more efcient use of
recycling etc.
But what will happen to the growth
of national incomes? The rst thing to
note here is that the annual decadal
growth rate of national income per
capita for the United States (annual
average rate of growth of national income
per capita taken over a decade) has hov-
ered around the two percent mark over
the last 120 years, with uctuations be-
ing dictated by recessions and booms.
In other words, there has been no per-
manent dip in the growth rate of na-
tional income.
In the future, if the anti-consumerism
movement gains momentum as a reac-
tion to the scarcity of raw materials and
lifestyle diseases (brought about by over-
consumption of food and gadget based
sedentary living) and brings about a de-
crease in the purchases of new clothes,
consumer durables and even food, while
being accompanied by greater recycling
of materials, the resulting decrease in
consumption demand should drive in-
come down. But such changes which
tend to depress income growth will be
neutralised by others investments in
new technologies to promote efcient
use of renewable resources; and an ex-
ponential increase in the marketing of
products that are extremely human
capital intensive but not resource inten-
sive for example, e-books and expen-
sive software.
Truth be told, comparison of the esti-
mate of current national income with
that generated a century from today
might be rendered almost meaningless
because of radical changes in the entire
consumption basket from one prima-
rily based on natural and depletable
resources to that which attaches much
greater importance to inexhaustible
renewable resources and the use of hu-
man capital. But things dear to human-
ity such as the pursuit of knowledge and
art would go on and become much eas-
ier; and life would probably become
more comfortable as the combination of
greater depth in information networks
and meaningful governmental interven-
tions would help people optimise their
consumption patterns with greater fore-
sight and lead longer, healthier and
more fullling lives. Needless to say, I
have abstracted from the ebb and ow
of fortunes which often mark human
progress over a much longer term.
(SIDDHARTHA MITRA is currently
Professor of Economics at Jadavpur Uni-
versity, Kolkata. In his earlier appoint-
ments he has been Director (Research),
CUTS International and a Reader at the
Gokhale Institute of Politics and Eco-
nomics, Pune. Prof. Mitra has also taught
economics at the University of Melbourne;
and Indian Statistical Institute, New
Delhi. He has served on consultative com-
mittees to the Ministry of Environment,
Government of India and also as consult-
ant to the National Council of Applied
Economic Research (NCAER), New
Delhi and Center for Development Re-
search (ZEF), Bonn.
The views expressed in the article are
personal and do not reect the ofcial
policy or position of the organisation.)
WITH INDIA AND CHINA STILL BEING
A DEVELOPING NATION, CAN THEY
AFFORD TO ADOPT EXPENSIVE
GREEN PRODUCTION METHODS?
number of households needed to service
the industrial revolution. Quite obvi-
ously, the generation of incomes was of
paramount importance and everything
else took a backseat.
The tale of worsening air quality was
equally gruesome. London and Edin-
burgh became infamous for their smoke
and fog, with the former nicknamed the
Big Smoke. There was a massive in-
crease in the emissions of hydrogen
chloride and sulphur dioxide, one of the
major contributors of acid rain.
Human health and well being were
often compromised during this indus-
trial march. In the rst half of the 18
th

century, London and Paris, with respec-
tively 1 and 2.4 million inhabitants in
1850, experienced recurring epidemics
of cholera and typhoid because of water
pollution. In 1832 over 20,000 Parisians
died in a cholera outbreak; London ex-
perienced similar outbreaks. Returning
to air pollution, an obvious effect was
disruption of trafc. But respiratory
difculties and sometimes deaths were
also a consequence. For the uninitiated,
a week of smog in 1873 accounted for
700 deaths in London while the Great
London Smog of December 1952 ac-
counted for 4,000 more.
While economic models often credit
their actors with perfect foresight, in the
real world this is seldom the case.
Moreover, under normal conditions,
efforts. This is just as well because giant
technological leaps, though ideal, are
simply not possible. For example, it is
too utopian to think of a change which
is associated with a switch from operat-
ing with tools which are neither very
productive nor produce much pollution
to those that are very productive and at
the same time do not dent the aquatic
and atmospheric environment. In other
words, technologies inevitably pass
through a trajectory associated with low
productivity and low pollution; then
with high productivity and high pollu-
tion; and nally with productivity main-
tained at the mentioned high levels but
much lower pollution.
However, once economic improve-
ments are accompanied by the rise of
other evils (such as pollution or the rise
of economic inequalities or exploitation)
corrective measures gradually evolve,
especially in democracies. Moreover,
recent history suggests that countries
operating under political systems that
would not be classied as democratic
(for example, single party rule) often en-
courage their citizens to voice their
opinions about problems such as pollu-
tion which are generally not associated
with a great deal of controversy. Such
voicing of opinions is often a safety valve
which prevents the stirring of unrest
resulting from discontent in regard to
other issues.
Going back to the British experience
of a positive association of water and air
pollution with economic growth, this
prompted reasonably swift remedial
action. In the mid 19
th
century, London
became one of the rst cities in the
world to build a sewer system and im-
prove drinking water supply through the
Metropolis Water Act of 1852 which
forced water companies to move their
intakes upstream and regulate their l-
tration and storage. Similarly, following
the Great London Smog, the rst Clean
Air Act was passed which moved power
stations and heavy industry from the
densely populated large cities and made
the use of smokeless coal mandatory.
Between 1970 and 1994, the emissions
of sulphur dioxide, one of the main
contributors to acid rain, fell by around
60 percent.
A M I D S T A L T E R N A T I V E S DESERTED
DESERTED
B L U E G O L D
Are food import and water trade related to each
other and is virtual water trade a viable solution?
creases the ability to utilize the renew-
able water resources available in
man-made and natural water resource
systems. The increased agricultural wa-
ter withdrawal thus made leads to more
virtual water trade, these are the main
assumptions we started with. The linear
regression performed for analyzing the
effect of agricultural land on the gures
of water withdrawal for agriculture
showed no effect. But as we have already
discussed, these gures only show the
blue water withdrawal. It does not take
into account the green water usage by
these countries. For many water scarce
countries, which are rich in arable land,
soil moisture use is a signicant compo-
nent of the total water use for agricul-
ture. Therefore, we ran the regression
between gross cultivated land and effec-
tive agricultural water use.
VIRTUAL WATER TRADE VS
REGIONAL WATER TRANSFERS
Now let us examine the implications of
these two arguments for a water scarce
country, characterized by regional vari-
ations in water endowments, for making
policy choices between regional vir-
tual water trade and water transfer.
For this, we consider a food importing
country. China, SADC countries and
Spain are some of the countries/regions
in the world that are characterized by
major variations in water endowments,
and rely on food imports. In Haihe
watershed of northern China, the per
capita renewable water availability is
358m
3
/annum against 3327m
3
/annum in
Zhujiang watershed of South China,
whereas the country average is 2195m
3
/
capita/annum (Yang 2002: pp1).
We have to start with a reasonable
assumption that water-rich regions have
lesser amount of arable land as com-
pared to water scarce regions in per
capita terms, based on the evidences
provided in the earlier section, and that
arable land in such regions is already
put to maximum use. From food self-
sufciency point of view, it might make
sense for the country to transfer water
from the water-rich region to the
water scarce region even if it may be
at the cost of bringing down the net re-
newable water of the water-rich re-
extremely water-rich countries record
high virtual water imports.
On the contrary, there are several
countries which are not really water-rich,
but are on the verge of approaching the
water stress mark. Examples are Af-
ghanistan, Malawi, India, Thailand and
Denmark. Their renewable water avail-
ability is below 3000 m
3
/capita mark, but
export food grains, livestock, poultry and
livestock products. The food grain ex-
port from India during 2000-01 stood at
2.39 million ton. It is a known fact that
countries like India are already facing
acute water stress in many pockets. For
the depletion of groundwater resources
and degradation of land through their
intensive use, the all time record
achieved in cereal production in India
would not have been possible.
The very fact that virtual water
ows out of a relatively water scarce
semi-arid country to a cold and humid
country itself indicates that the goals of
improved global water use efciency
and distribution of scarcity does not get
realized through virtual water trade as
it happens today in the global context.
This does not mean that water availabil-
ity does not act as a variable in the food
production function in a country con-
text. It only means that total water
sufciency does not necessarily mean
food self-sufciency in a practical sense.
Following explanations would help a
better appreciation of the argument.
A country can be water-rich through
two ways. In the rst case, the magni-
tude of rainfall, runoff and groundwater
recharge a unit land area receives be-
comes very high (examples are Finland,
Japan, Indonesia and Malaysia). In the
second case, the rainfall, runoff and
groundwater recharge rates are very
low, but the amount of land which re-
ceives it (catchment area) is high owing
to low population densities.

ARABLE LAND CONTROL AND
VIRTUAL WATER TRADE DYNAMIC
The reason for this strong correlation
between cultivated land and virtual wa-
ter trade is increased ability to tap the
water in the soil prole with increase in
per capita agricultural land. Also in-
creased per capita agricultural land in-
T
he argument that food import is
a strong indicator of level of
water decit that economies
face; and that all economies
around the world which face acute water
scarcity problems can and should meet
their water demand for food through
cereal imports from water-rich coun-
tries has become dominant in the dis-
cussions on ways of facing global water
challenges (Allan 1997: pp 4; Warner
2003: pp127). This has almost become
a truism because some of the largest
virtual water importing countries, the
Middle East and North Africa, face
serious water decits and some of the
virtual water exporting countries are
water-rich.
It is true that when a crop which has
high embedded water is grown in a hu-
mid, water-rich country and traded with
a arid or semi-arid country in return for
a crop which has high economic ef-
ciency (in Rs/m
3
), there would be a net
water gain for the water scarce country
as virtual water ows out of the water-
rich country. With food imports, coun-
tries/regions achieve a net gain in water,
which otherwise would have to be used
from their own internally available re-
sources (Chapagain and Hoekstra 2003:
pp1). But the operational aspect of this
concept needs to be looked into. Such
an analysis would go far beyond mere
agro-climatic variations and compara-
tive water advantages, which scholars
have already considered.
There are factors other than mere
climate and water surplus that would
determine the success of converting this
idea of virtual water trade into a practi-
cal problem-solving tool for water
stressed countries, just as according to
Earle and Turton (2003), there are fac-
tors that cause reliance on virtual water.
While the virtual water trade concept is
closely related to notion of comparative
economic advantage, farm level deci-
sions regarding crop production and
marketing would be inuenced by pub-
lic policy regarding the economy, inter-
national trade and the prices of inputs
and outputs (Wichelns, 2003). Even in
water scarce countries, there are major
political economic considerations in
allocating water resources across sec-
VIRTUAL
PANACEA FOR WATER SCARCITY
WATER TRADE
tors and within sectors (Parveen and
Faisal undated; Warner, 2003). Virtual
water trade would also depend on the
geopolitics of the region. But, the pur-
pose of this contribution is to examine
whether the much talked about water
management goals such as global water
use efciency and distribution of
scarcity, as argued by many scholars,
are really achievable through virtual
water trade.
RENEWABLE WATER AVAILABILITY
AND VIRTUAL WATER TRADE
There are many water-rich countries
that are still resorting to food imports
in an extensive way. There are a total of
65 countries belong to water-rich cate-
gory that have trade decit in virtual
water. The amount of water imported in
the virtual form is more than exported.
The trade decit ranges from a lowest
of 4.9m
3
/capita/annum to 838m
3
/capita/
annum. For instance, Japan, which has
a renewable water availability of 3390
m
3
/capita, is heavily dependent on ce-
real imports for its domestic consump-
tion and the water equivalent of this
amount to 645m
3
/capita annually. Many
O. P. SINGH
Assistant Professor,
Institute of Agricultural Sciences,
Banaras Hindu University
M. DINESH KUMAR
Executive Director, Institute
for Resource Analysis and
Policy, Hyderabad
DESERTED
B L U E G O L D
value realization might demand real-
location of more than the real volu-
metric surplus available within the
water surplus region to a water-scarce
region. But such additional transfers
have to satisfy two conditions. First: the
incremental value realized exceeds the
cost of such transfer. Second: mecha-
nisms exist for compensating for the
economic and livelihood losses suffered
by the water-rich region (Kumar et al.,
2008a).
This does not mean that water trans-
fer is the only option for water decit
countries/regions. Wherever possibili-
ties exist virtual water trade should be
encouraged. But for a region, which is
well-endowed with good arable land, it
would be the natural choice to bring in
water from a water-rich region to im-
prove the efciency of use of land, and
thereby also efciency of use of water
from the natural environment which
remains under-utilized in surplus re-
gions. But, physical efciency of irriga-
tion water use is extremely low in third
world countries resulting from absence
of proper pricing leading to reduced
water productivity. It has been found
that when confronted with the scarcity
value of water, farmers make efforts to
improve the efciency with which water
is used (Kumar 2005: pp39-51).
MAJOR FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS
1. Cross country analyses of virtual
water trade involving 131 countries
show that renewable water availabil-
ity does not have any bearing on
virtual water trade volume. Further
analyses show that virtual water ow
dynamic is controlled more by the
access to arable land than access to
renewable freshwater. Gross cropped
area explains virtual water trade to
an extent of 40% with one per cent
level of signicance.
complacency for water-rich nations;
while unwanted pessimism for water
scarce nations. Access to arable land
equally or even more concerns coun-
trys food security and therefore
should be integrated with other con-
siderations in national food and wa-
ter policy making.
5. Assessing the water management
challenges posed by nations purely
from the point of view of renewable
water availability and aggregate de-
mands will be dangerous. Access to
water in the soil prole would be an
important determinant of effective
water availability for food produc-
tion, from which a major portion of
the aggregate demand comes.
6. The dominant water management
paradigm suggested for water scarce
countries that are characterized by
major regional variations in the re-
source endowment and still relying
on food imports is virtual water
transfer. But, this could spell doom
if arable land is limited in the well
endowed area. Under such circum-
stances, inter-regional water transfer
options could be explored thereby
enabling productive use of both land
and water for crop production at the
country level. Transfer of water in
addition to the volumetric surplus
available in the water-rich region also
might be desirable as it helps im-
prove the economic outputs from the
use of water.
7. Policy Inferences: The regional de-
bates in South Asia, China and some
of the SADC states on setting policy
priorities to deal with water short-
ages for food production are heavily
inuenced by virtual water trade
argument. Our analyses show that
while global water use efciency
and availability of blue water for food
production could be important con-
cerns that inuence country water
policies of water-poor nations, they
could not be the decisive factors.
Availability of arable land that ef-
fectively increases the potential for
tapping water in the soil prole
therefore effective water availability,
and degree of dependence of a
country on water for economic
growth and its population for liveli-
hood are important considerations.
Regional food trade has limited rel-
evance from a global water use ef-
ciency perspective. But, there could be
a new window of opportunity, if we
change the rationale for virtual water
trade from water use efciency and
distribution of scarcity to land use
efciency; adopt productivity poten-
tial of water as the water management
goal; and we consider regional water
transport as a technically feasible op-
tion. The idea is to physically transfer
the water to naturally water scarce re-
gions; put it to use; and then transfer
food grains produced to the water-
rich and land-poor regions. The
volume of virtual water embedded in
food export can be treated as an ex-
change for taking water out of surplus
areas. This will help avert any inter-state
conicts that could arise from decisions
to take water out of water-rich states.
Another important benet of such
transfer arrangements is that the water
scarce regions that intensively use their
endogenous water for livelihood will
continue to have their irrigation-based
livelihoods. Massive transfer of water
to these water starved regions and its
subsequent use for irrigation would
also result induced groundwater re-
charge (Kumar et al., 2010). The impact
will be double: rst, water transfer will
reduce groundwater pumping, and the
return ows from irrigation would in-
crease recharge thereby reducing the
stress on groundwater. The increase in
land productivity achieved through
bringing rain-fed crops under irrigation
will have to justify the investments for
transfer of surplus water from water-
rich regions to water decit regions.
But, as Kumar et al. (2008a) notes, the
amount of water to be transferred could
be more than the real volumetric sur-
plus available within the water-rich re-
gion, if the incremental value realized
in the water-scarce region exceeds the
cost of such additional water transfer,
and mechanisms exist for compensat-
ing for the economic and livelihood
losses suffered by the water-rich region
through such transfers.
(M. DINESH KUMAR is currently the
Executive Director of Institute for Re-
source Analysis and Policy (IRAP). He
had worked very closely with many re-
puted international and national agencies
like UNICEF. He has nearly 120 publica-
tions to his credit, including three books;
many book chapters; and several papers
in international peer-reviewed journals.
O. P. SINGH joined the International
Water Management Institute India
Project Ofce as Consultant in February
2002. He has more than thirteen years of
rich experience of working with aca-
demic, research institution and NGOs in
the area of natural resource economics
and management. He has more than 60
publications to his credit including arti-
cles in national and international jour-
nals, book chapters, monographs etc.
2. Increase in access to arable land
leads to increase in effective water
withdrawal in agriculture, irrespec-
tive of the strong mismatch between
water richness and land richness.
Many countries that are rich in ara-
ble land are water-poor, which in
turn increases the irrigation water
requirement; and water drawn from
the soil prole increases with culti-
vated land.
3. Since virtual water often ows out of
water-poor, but land-rich coun-
tries to water-rich and land-poor
countries, global water use ef-
ciency and distribution of scarcity
are difcult goals to be achieved
through virtual water trade. When
virtual water ows into a water-rich
country, what is being achieved is
improved land use efciency.
4. Assessing the future food security
challenges posed to nations purely
from a water resource perspective
provide a distorted view of the food
security scenario. It may bring in
gion below the acceptable levels dened
by total water sufciency. This is be-
cause of two reasons: water in the soil
prole, which is not considered in as-
sessing renewable water availability,
would still be available; and water suf-
ciency for food production directly
relates to availability of arable land.
Water transfer would increase utiliza-
tion of water resources for crop produc-
tion at country level. With increased
water availability for irrigation, the area
under cultivation might also go up sig-
nicantly resulting from increased land
use intensity.
As regards India, southern peninsula
has vast amount of arable land that
could be brought to intensive cultiva-
tion, if water is provided (GOI 1999).
Northern Chinese provinces that are
now facing severe water shortage, have
been practicing intensive irrigated agri-
culture (Yang 2002). By embarking on
major water transfer projects, the water
management goal being achieved is
improving the productivity of land in
water scarce regions apart from equal-
izing water richness. It has been es-
tablished that irrigation water use ef-
ciencies in arid and semi-arid, water
scarce regions are much higher than
that in humid, water-rich regions. All
these arguments build a strong case for
physical water transfer.
While transfer of surplus water from
water-rich regions to water scarce re-
gions does not need a better economic
rationale than increasing the productive
use of the un-utilized water, the notable
fact is that such transfers for agriculture
lead to realization of greater economic
value. The increase in land productivity
achieved through bringing rain-fed
crops under irrigation will have to jus-
tify the investments for transfer of sur-
plus water from water-rich regions to
water decit regions. The incremental
INTERNATIONAL WATER TRANSFER
WOULD INCREASE UTILIZATION
OF WATER RESOURCES FOR CROP
PRODUCTION AT COUNTRY LEVEL
Diversication of of livelihood strategies is a must in drylands in order to reduce the risk of income failure from any single source
DRYLANDS AND DESERTIFICATION
CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES
BHIM ADHIKARI
Programme Officer (Dryland
Ecosystems), UNU-INWEH
D
rylands cover 40% of global
land area and support almost
one third of the worlds popu-
lation (Adeel et al., 2008).
Further, they feature some of the
worlds fastest growing populations
which have placed increasing pressures
on these fragile ecosystems (Boone et
al., 2007). Land degradation has be-
come one of the pressing issues in dry-
lands that has a greater drag on econo-
mies that are heavily dependent on the
agricultural sector (Alfsen et al., 1997).
Poor management of land is one of the
major causes of land degradation. Up
to 71 percent of the worlds grasslands
are reported to be degraded to some
extent as a result of overgrazing, salini-
zation, alkalinization, acidication and
other processes (FAO/LEAD, 2006).
Grasslands and rangelands in arid,
semi-arid and sub-humid areas are
particularly affected (Safriel, et al.,
2005). The impact of land degradation
has direct implications on foregone in-
come and decreased food security
(Barbier and Bishop, 1995). For exam-
ple, it has been noted that the annual
cost of degradation in the Sub-Saharan
African countries is more or less equiv-
alent to their mean agricultural growth
thereby limiting the scope of rural de-
velopment (Requier-Desjardins, 2006).
The Millennium Ecosystem Assess-
ment highlighted the fact that degrada-
tion of dryland ecosystems will have
negative impacts on biodiversity
hotspots as well as human well-being
through the loss of ecosystem services
(MA, 2005). In many areas, farmers
have been forced to place an emphasis
on crops that are only economically vi-
able which has reduced the resilience of
these ecosystems to drought and other
external factors (Safriel and Adeel,
2005). The population dynamics of the
drylands combined with the limited
supply of resources and unsuitable ag-
ricultural techniques has lead to severe
poverty, desertication and ultimately
reduced the welfare in these regions.
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
CHALLENGES IN DRYLANDS
Dryland ecosystems are dened as ter-
restrial areas where climate is classied
as dry sub-humid, semi-arid, arid and
hyper arid. They are characterized by
high temperatures and solar radiation
and low levels of precipitation which
leads to high rates of evapotranspira-
tion. The arid zones are characterized
by low and unpredictable rainfall which
allows pastoralism to be the dominant
source of livelihood strategy (Nassef et
al., 2009). Traditional livelihood strate-
gies in the drylands are largely related
to livestock and agriculture related ac-
tivities. Pastoralists have adapted to the
arid zones by creating a mobile yet large
and diverse livestock herd that reduce
risk created by a scarce resource base.
The mobility of the livestock allows
pastoralists to optimize the use of
rangelands according to the uctuating
availability of water, while the diversity
and size of the herds provide insurance
against stock loss during extreme
weather shocks (Brooks, 2006). On the
other hand, the semi-arid zone receives
15 T H E G R E AT I N D I A N D R E A M 14 T H E I I P M T H I N K T A N K
I S O L A T I N G I N C O M E S DESERTED
a higher level of rainfall which allows
the inhabitants of these regions to de-
pend on crop-production as a source of
subsistence livelihood. However, the
seasonal nature of agriculture forces
dryland populations to rely on a variety
of livelihood strategies including hunt-
ing, gathering, shing and non-farm
activities (Ellis, 1998).
This diversication of livelihood
strategies allows the dryland population
to reduce the risk of income failure
from any single source and negate the
volatility that is typically associated with
the agricultural sector (Ellis, 1998).
Also, synergies are found within a com-
munity where different livelihood strat-
egies such as crop and livestock produc-
tion are practiced. For instance,
cultivation of fodder can decrease the
pressure of livestock on rangelands
while the production of manure re-
duces the dependence on fertilizer
while enhancing crop production (Saf-
riel and Adeel, 2005).
However, the rapidly increasing
population of the drylands places in-
creased demands on the traditional
forms of livelihoods, such as crop and
livestock production. In response to the
increased pressure, land users place the
long-term viability of their livelihoods
in jeopardy by adopting technologies
that lead to further degradation of an
already fragile resource base (Darkoh,
1998). Also, migration of inhabitants of
less arid environments (high population
density) to marginal arid lands (low
population density) leads to conict and
instability in the drylands since the local
indigenous populations and migrants
often compete for the same land-based
resources (Darkoh, 1998).
In many areas, there is a lack of
clearly dened property rights that has
reduced the efciency of existing live-
lihood strategies. Land tenure policy
in the last few decades has been driven
by privatization and nationalization
agendas in an attempt to reduce the
stock of livestock by limiting the mo-
bility of pastoralists (Leach and
Mearns, 1996). Also, the privatization
of lands was designed to provide an
economic incentive for land users to
invest in maintaining or improving
land productivity. However, these
policies failed to yield the desired re-
sults because the resources were not
truly open-access but were subject to
communal obligations that ensured
the sustainability of these resources
(Scoones et al., 1993). The failure to
acknowledge the true nature of these
communal resources lead to further
degradation as the drylands became
available to non-traditional users who
lacked awareness of the established
rules (Fratkins and Mearns, 2003).
Agricultural activities in the drylands
is severely constrained due to the lack
of technology and nancial market
availability that allow the transfer of
credit from savers to borrowers, result-
ing in an efcient allocation of resourc-
es while maximizing the investment
potential for all farmers (Esguerra,
1996). Poverty alleviation in dryland
communities is often contingent on the
success of small-scale farming which
has been shown to be the primary force
behind economic growth in these re-
gions (Kydd and Dorward, 2001). This is
primarily due to the nature of small-
scale farming that tends to be labour-
intensive and the money generated by
these operations tend to be spent on
locally produced goods (Mayrand and
Paquin, 2006). On the other hand,
large-scale operations tend to be capi-
tal-intensive and rely on external inputs.
Inadequate systems for assessing rural
entities, high transaction costs and a
lack of an appropriate mechanism for
credit enforcement have constrained
the effectiveness of nancial markets in
the drylands (Llanto, 2004).
Despite an increase in international
agricultural trade in the last decade,
rural dryland communities have not
experienced the benets that are typi-
cally associated with market liberaliza-
tion (Mayrand and Paquin, 2006). This
can be primarily attributed to a shift
from the traditional domestic market to
the new global market. Increased trans-
action costs, higher levels of risk and
capital investments are typical charac-
teristics of the global markets (Kydd and
Dorward, 2001). Large-scale farmers
are capable of absorbing high levels of
risk and invest in expensive capital in-
puts and therefore capture the majority
of the new market share created via
trade liberalization (Mayrand and
Paquin, 2006). This results in a further
increase in inequity and reduces the
impact of trade liberalization on pov-
erty alleviation since small-scale farm-
ers are further marginalized. In order
to achieve an equitable distribution of
benets from trade liberalization it is
imperative to implement domestic
policies that aid small-scale farmers to
fully participate in global markets.
Agricultural subsidies in developed
countries can also be considered to be
barriers in the sustainable development
of the drylands. Domestic subsidies cre-
ate distortions by providing incentives
for overproduction of certain crops
which lead to prices that are lower than
those found in an undistorted market
(Diao et al., 2003). This downward trend
in prices has a pronounced impact on
the environmental and economic condi-
tions of the drylands. For instance,
cotton subsidies in the developed coun-
tries have supposedly resulted in a
yearly loss of US$250 million in West
and Central African countries (Pfeifer
et al., 2004). This loss of income has
severe environmental consequences as
farmers tend to increase agricultural
production by expanding into marginal
lands or forests to compensate for the
lower prices which further decrease the
primary productivity of the drylands. In
Mexico for example, farmers increased
corn production by expanding into for-
est reserves due to the adverse new
market conditions created by NAFTA
(Nadal, 2000). It should be noted that
the removal of these subsidies does not
guarantee economic and environmental
sustainability for the drylands. Finally,
many African drylands are considered
to be vulnerable to extreme weather
events such as ooding and drought
brought on by climate change which
poses a signicant constraint for dry-
land farmers (Cooper et al., 2008). In-
creasing temperatures will lead to
higher rates of evotranspiration exag-
gerating the problems caused due to
water scarcity. Since the majority of the
dryland populations depend on land-
based resources, climate change threat-
ens the food security of the region by
adding another layer of risk to the tra-
ditional livelihood strategies. Although
desertication is thought to occur by
overexploitation of resources, it has
also been argued that the inherent na-
ture of a traditional livelihood such as
pastoralism can contribute to the proc-
ess (Safriel, 2004). All these socio-eco-
nomic, institutional and environmental
constraints strongly justify the need for
promoting alternative livelihoods in
marginal drylands.

WHAT CAN BE DONE?
Drylands offer a number of oppertuni-
ties to conserve local environment
through creation of alternative liveli-
hood systems (Reynolds et al, 2007).
Some crucial interventions in drylands
would be sustainable land management
and integration of range management,
wildlife management, and soil and wa-
ter conservation. Further, rehabilitation
of drylands such as forest management
and desertication control will make
great impact on the livelihoods of mar-
ginalized pastoral communities in many
dryland countries. Dryland ecosystems
in these areas produce many important
Ecosystem Services (ES), including
regulation of water quantity and quality,
biodiversity, erosion control and carbon
sequestration (Thomas, 2008). How-
ever, the failure of markets to internal-
ize ecological externalities associated
with dryland ecosystem services is the
main obstacle for appreciating their
values. Payment for Ecosystem Services
(PES) programs have been highlighted
as one way of sustaining these valuable
services as well as promoting alternative
livelihood strategies in these areas
(Thomas, 2008). For instance, PES
schemes that focus on reducing land
degradation and desertication through
forest management and conservation,
ecotourism, and sustainable land use in
agriculture hold great promise for off-
setting the growing environmental
problems in drylands and improving the
well-being of the local people. Further-
more, sandstorm control and wind ero-
sion reduction, conservation of biodi-
versity, improved water productivity
and ood erosion control are a few
notable ES provided by rangelands in
marginal drylands.
Ecotourism continues to be a major
source of household income in key
rangeland regions, however, there is an
urgent need for government policy to
recognize the important role of com-
munities in wildlife conservation and
natural resource management within
protected and community owned lands
(Mortimore, 2009). Dryland conserva-
tion agriculture has been highlighted as
one specic practice that could be ac-
tively supported by a PES scheme for
carbon sequestration (Lal, 2001). It
involves growing crops that are resilient
to drought and promotes the biological
functioning of the soils (moisture reten-
tion, fertility, erosion prevention, etc.).
The biggest challenge in setting up
conservation agriculture-related PES
schemes is the time lag and resources
required for farmers to convert to a
different form of cultivation. More re-
search is needed to understand what
kinds of reward mechanisms would
ensure that the capital goods required
are provided to farmers. Finally, the
development of PES schemes in dry-
lands requires tenure reforms, enabling
policy, institutional and legal environ-
ment as well as involvement of a diverse
array of actors.
(BHIM ADHIKARI is an environmental
social scientist with expertise on environ-
mental economics, institutional analysis,
climate change adaptation and commu-
nity-based natural resource management.
He is working with United Nations Uni-
versity- the Institute for Water, Environ-
ment and Health (UNU-INWEH), the
United Nations think tank on water.
I S O L A T I N G I N C O M E S DESERTED
DESERTED P O L I C Y P E R S P E C T I V E
Government policies to combat soil
degradation has failed miserably as they never
adopted a holistic approach
GOPIKRISHNA SR
Specialist in Agricultural
Communications and Policy,
Greenpeace India
E
ven with increasing awareness
about natural resources degra-
dation and its impact on liveli-
hoods, we often take our soils
for granted. We refer to it as a non-
living entity and a medium for plant
growth, and tend to forget that its a
living ecosystem that supports mil-
lions of life forms. Moreover, our food
security is highly dependent on life
in soils.
Soil is a major reserve of planets
genetic biodiversity. However, only a
fraction of life forms in soils can be
seen through naked eyes and most of it
can only be seen through microscopes.
Studies show that a gram of soil can
contain as many as 10,000 different
species. These life forms play a critical
role in helping soils to function prop-
FOOD SECURITY
AND LIFE IN SOILS
lenges are scattered and are miniscule.
The policies never adopted a holistic
approach and hence they failed in ad-
dressing the crisis effectively. On the
other hand, the mindless support for
chemical fertilizers continued jeopard-
ising the soil ecosystem.
In this context, it is to be understood
that the quality of soil is rather dy-
namic and is controlled by chemical,
physical, and biological components of
soil and their interactions. Physical
and chemical properties are shaped by
biological activity which in turn is en-
hanced or limited by chemical and
physical condition. Hence, manage-
ment strategies that optimize multiple
soil functions have a greater potential
for improving soil-health than man-
agement strategies that focus on a
single function.
Soil organic matter, the lifeline of
soil, can be built up in soil through eco-
logical fertilization practices only. Eco-
logical fertilization practices that bring
in holistic improvement in soil health
include reduced tillage, crop residue
recycling, green manuring, farm yard
manure application, compost applica-
tion, biofertiliser and liquid manure
application, soil surface mulching, poly
cropping with inclusion of legumes in
cropping sequence and integration of
trees (modied alley cropping) on
cropped lands etc. All these agro-eco-
logical practices and several others on
their own or in combinations have been
reported to improve soil quality, restore
life in soils and increase crop yield.
Ecological fertilization is neglected
citing reasons such as non-availability
of biomass and high labour costs associ-
ated with such practices. A limiting
factor is that few resources have been
invested thus far in evaluating species,
in improving cultural practices, and in
devising appropriate implements for
growing and harnessing plant bio-mass.
Even though there were no coordinated
strategies developed to generate bio-
mass, there were studies by scientists
which showed that sufcient biomass
can be generated through a combina-
tion of practices at the farm level itself.
Livestock being a critical source of
manure needs to be promoted as an
integral component of the farm. It is
true that many practices associated
with ecological fertilization are cur-
rently labour-intensive. But little
thought has gone into developing this
labour intensive nature of ecological
fertilization as an opportunity to gener-
ate rural employment opportunities.
Conicting use of whatever little bio-
mass available in farms is another
concern. Biomass such as dried cow-
dung cakes, pressed leaf litter etc are
used as cooking fuels. It is also used in
energy production. Hence the Govern-
ment needs to consider all these vari-
ous factors and come up with a compre-
hensive biomass strategy if it has to
restore life in soils and sustain agricul-
tural production. This is vital for ensur-
ing food security of the country. There
is also need for policies that will restrict
indiscriminate use of chemicals in Ag-
riculture. The time to act is now.
(GOPIKRISHNA SR is a specialist in
Agricultural Communications and policy.
He campaigns for a sustainable future in
Agriculture. He is currently associated with
Greenpeace India
The views expressed in the article are per-
sonal and do not reect the ofcial policy
or position of the organisation.)
chemical fertilizers (catalyzed by the
Central Governments liberal subsidy
policy over several decades) and pesti-
cides along with intensive monocrop-
ping has led to degradation of the soil.
Indicators of good soil quality like mi-
crobial biomass, enzymatic activity and
water holding capacity are all drasti-
cally reduced under chemical intensive
agricultural practices.
ORGANIC MATTER
LIFELINE OF SOILS
The organic matter in soil comes from
biological sources. In a natural ecosys-
tem, leaf litter, woody materials, dead
bodies of living organisms etc accumu-
lates in the soil, which in turn gets acted
upon by microbes in the soils and gets
decayed to a point at which it is no
longer recognizable. Then it is called
soil organic matter. Organic materials
act as food and shelter for microbes in
the soil. Soil organic matter plays a key
role in soil-function, determining soil-
quality, water-holding capacity and
susceptibility of soil to degradation. In
addition, soil organic matter also serve
as a source or sink to atmospheric CO2
and also acts as a source of nutrients for
plant growth. Hence, organic matter is
considered as lifeline of soils.
In traditional agriculture, farmers
used to adopt lot of agro-ecological
practices which helped in supplying the
much needed organic matter. However
with the advent of chemical intensive
agriculture, policy makers, extension
systems and farmers neglected eco-
logical/organic fertilization. This has
led to drastic reduction on soil organic
matter content, which in turn added to
the decline of life forms and degrada-
tion of soil ecosystem.
PRESENT CHALLENGES
AND THE WAY FORWARD
After recognizing the threat posed by
the degradation of soils, the Govern-
ment has come out with several policies
in the past with an intention to tackle
the crisis. However the crisis still per-
sists and is getting even worse. This is
mainly because the Government sup-
port systems for addressing these chal-
GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO COME UP
WITH A COMPREHENSIVE BIOMASS
STRATEGY IN ORDER TO RESTORE LIFE
IN SOILS AND PREVENT DEGRADATION
erly. Functions of soil include sustain-
ing biological productivity, regulating
water ow, storing and cycling nutri-
ents, ltering, buffering, and trans-
forming organic and inorganic materi-
als. Health of soil is dependent on its
chemical, physical, and biological com-
ponents and their interactions.
Most of the living organisms in the
soil are agriculturally benecial. All
have important roles in maintaining
soil health and sustaining agricultural
production. But interestingly, while
much attention and investments in ag-
ricultural research has been made on
harmful ones and controlling them with
agro-chemicals there is hardly any fo-
cus on conserving the benecial living
organisms in the soil.
Moreover, indiscriminate use of
DESERTED M E D I A M A T T E R S
How media can mitigate the threat of desertication as an enabler,
public sphere, informer or as a platform for debate and discussions
and above all as a watchdog
I
t is no longer news in Nigeria that
the Sahara Desert is moving
southwards at a rate of 0.6 km per
year. What is news is that about 35
million people in northern Nigeria
are suffering from the effects of de-
sertication. And the menace is pos-
ing a serious threat to the nations
economy, food security and employ-
ment. Desertication is a global prob-
lem which is one of the prime factors
of food crisis in many developing and
poor countries.
DESERTIFICATION
It is important to keep in the mind the
distinction between deserts as a spe-
cic ecosystem and desertication as a
specic process. Deserts are beguiling
DESERTIFICATION AND FOOD CRISIS IN INDIA
MRINAL CHATTERJEE
Teacher, Author and Media
Trainer in India
and nature made: Atacama in Chile,
the Sonora in Mexico, the Sahara in
Africa, the Thar in India. Desertica-
tion on the other hand, is the rapid,
human-induced creation of deserts
the sudden, accelerated conversion of
arid or semi-arid land, usually by over-
grazing, deforestation, over-extraction
of groundwater, drought, over-planting,
or some nasty combination of the ve.
The worlds great deserts were
formed by natural processes interact-
ing over long intervals of time. During
most of these times, deserts have
grown and shrunk independent of hu-
man activities. Desertication has
played a signicant role in human his-
tory, contributing to the collapse of
several large empires, such as Carthage,
Greece, and the Roman Empire, as
well as causing displacement of local
populations. However, with time deser-
tication has assumed more impor-
tance because of two factors: a. with
increase in population demand for
food has increased, and b. human ac-
tivities impacting land degradation
have increased.
HOW DOES IT AFFECT?
Willem Van Cotthem, Honorary Pro-
fessor of Botany, University of Ghent
(Belgium) writes in his blog, The world
is seeing a food, energy, climate and
credit crisis, each having repercussions
on every sphere of human activity.
falls in the dry subhumid region. All
put together, about 228 mha area, i.e.
69% of the geographic area of the
country is dry land (arid, semiarid and
dry subhumid).
In India, the total area under deser-
tication is 81.45 mha. Water erosion
(26.21 mha), wind erosion (17.77 mha),
vegetal degradation (17.63 mha) and
frost shattering (9.47 mha) are the ma-
jor processes of desertication.
Nearly one third of the countrys
land area (32.07%) is undergoing
processes of land degradation. There
are about eight major processes of
land degradation active in the coun-
try. Water erosion is the most pro-
nounced process, followed by vegetal
degradation and eolian processes.
Total area under land degradation is
105.48 mha.
Area-wise Rajasthan, J&K, Gujarat
and Maharashtra have high propor-
tions of land undergoing degradation.
81.45 mha land area of the
country is undergoing the process
of desertication.
WHAT ARE THE POSSIBLE CAUSES?
The causes of desertication could
be both natural and/or man made.
Major causes for desertication are:
change in frequency and amount
of rainfall, reduction in vegetal cover,
wrong agricultural management prac-
tices, cultivation on marginal lands,
over-exploitation of the natural
resources, excessive grazing, etc. Often
it falls into the trap of the vicious circle:
reduction of vegetal cover triggers
desertication, it forces people
inhabiting the area to exploit
vegetal cover of a larger area thus ag-
gravating desertication.
ITS IMPACT ON FOOD PRODUC-
TION AND FOOD INSECURITY
Desertication reduces the natural po-
tential of the ecosystems and has a di-
rect impact on people in terms of vul-
nerability to food shortages and natural
disasters, depletion of natural resources
and deterioration of the environment.
Continuing desertication could have a
far-reaching environmental, social and
economic impact, which could trigger
Land degradation will add to the ad-
verse impact of each of these prob-
lems. Land degradation, in fact, in
several parts of the world is triggering
the crisis, especially in countries with
vast drylands.
Drylands occupy approximately 40-
41% of Earths land area and are home
to more than two billion people. It has
been estimated that some 10-20% of
drylands are already degraded, the
total area affected by desertication
being between 6-12 million square
kilometers. It is also estimated that
about 1-6% of the inhabitants of dry-
lands live in desertied areas, and a
billion people are under threat from
further desertication that is rough-
ly 20 per cent more than the total
population of European continent.

DESERTIFICATION IN INDIA
India occupies only 2.4% of the worlds
geographical area, yet supports about
16.7% of the worlds human popula-
tion; it has only 0.5% of the worlds
grazing land but supports 18% of the
worlds cattle population. Thus there is
tremendous pressure on our land-
based natural resources.
India is endowed with a variety of
soils, climate, biodiversity and eco-
logical regions. About 50.8 mha land
area (15.8% of the countrys geographi-
cal area) is arid, 123.4 mha (37.6%) is
semi-arid and 54.1 mha (16.5%) area
WHAT MEDIA CAN DO?
P
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: M
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K
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A
D
E
DESERTED M E D I A M A T T E R S
and/or add food insecurity.
WHAT COULD BE DONE?
Combating desertication is key
to tackling global food crisis. There
are several ways to combat and
contain desertication.
Vegetation plays an essential role in
protecting the soil, especially trees and
shrubs, because their long life and ca-
pacity to develop powerful root systems
assure protection against soil erosion.
Their disappearance can considerably
increase the vulnerability of the land
to turn into a wasteland.
However, the silver lining is: a
number of diversied farming systems
have been evolved for low-rainfall
areas, which include agro-forestry,
agri-horticulture and agri-silvi-pas-
ture, to sustain livelihood during crop
failure and to maintain livestock dur-
ing drought.
Desertication gives rise to socio-
economic problems. Therefore policy
interventions and socio-economic
measures also need to be taken.
A strategy to combat desertication
could be like:
Develop the Natural Resource
Conservation of land, water and
perennial biomass
Treatment of problem lands
Expand horticulture, forestry and
agroforestry
Develop need-based NRM related
infrastructure
Management of Developed NR
Formal allocation of user rights
System of management of assets
created (e.g. user charges)
Sustainable use of developed NR
(e.g. social regulation)
Non-farm Livelihoods
Diversication and link to markets
Upscaling of successes
Focus on productivity enhancement
Support to Self-Help Groups
WHAT IS BEING DONE?
Government of India has framed
several policies and started a number
of programmes to counter
desertication and its fall outs. Some
of them include:
National Environmental Policy
2006, which said . while conser-
vation of environmental resources
is necessary to secure livelihoods
and well-being of all, the most se-
cure basis for conservation is to en-
sure that people dependent on par-
ticular resources obtain better
livelihoods from the fact of conser-
vation, than from degradation of the
resource. It also emphasized on
undertaking measures that were-
consistent with the local sociocul-
tural practices and combines
traditional and modern science
based knowledge.
National Policy for Farmers 2007,
which attempted to address declin-
ing agricultural growth and prot-
ability and increase off-farm em-
ployment opportunities to create
demand for farm products and to
increase farmers resilience
National Rainfed Area Authority
(2007) attempted convergence of
programmes and institutions
National Policy on Voluntary Sector
2007 envisaged Joint Consultation,
Collaboration and Capacity Build-
ing of voluntary organizations.
National Rural Employment Guar-
antee Act 2005, which aimed to en-
hance livelihood security by provid-
ing 100 days of unskilled wage
employment per year for one mem-
ber of willing household. It came
into effect, on a pilot basis, in Febru-
ary 2006 in 200 economically disad-
vantaged districts of the country. In
the second phase of implementation,
it was extended to 130 additional
districts and the remaining districts
were covered in the third phase on
April 1, 2008. About one third of the
persons days of work created was
earmarked for work related to com-
bating desertication
National Rehabilitation and Reset-
tlement Policy 2007 attempted to
minimize displacement, promote
alternatives and undertake time
bound and adequate rehabilitation
Bharat Nirman Yojana ( 2005-2009),
a time bound plan for rural infra-
structure (electricity, all weather
roads, telephone and additional irri-
gation capacity)
National Food Security Mission
2007 aimed to Increase productivity
of rice, wheat and pulse through
area expansion (except rice) and
productivity enhancement in sus-
tainable manner. It also aimed to
restore soil fertility and productivity
at individual farmlevel and Enhance
farm prots to restore condence of
farmers of targeted districts.
National Agriculture Development
Scheme 2007 provided incentives to
States for increasing investments in
agriculture sector. It provided local
exibility and autonomy in planning
for development of agriculture and
allied sectors
As can be seen there has been no
death of plans and schemes. The
challenge; however is to take those
systems to elds and actually
operationalising them. Media can
help here.
HOW CAN MEDIA HELP?
Media can play ve roles in mitigating
the situation. There can be considera-
ble overlapping in the roles.
Media as an Enabler: Media increases
peoples access to information. Infor-
mation makes them appreciate the
problem. It gives people power to face
the challenges.
Media as a Public Sphere: People can
air and share their ideas through mass
media. Issues can be discussed. Sug-
gestions for solutions of problems can
be aired and discussed. For example,
media can help discuss the suggestions
M S Swaminathan offered to mitigate
hunger and ensuring food security in
the Food Security Atlas. Socially
responsible journalism is a struggle
to gain public space within the
private sphere.
Media as an Informer: Media can in-
form people about various problems of
society, and what causes them, and
what is being done or not done about
them. This helps x accountability. It
can also inform people about opportu-
nities and how to avail them.
Media as a Platform: Media can pro-
vide a platform, where people can air
their grievances, put forth their views,
and participate in schemes to mitigate
their problems.
Media as a Watchdog: It is said that
sunshine is the best disinfectant. That
somebody is watching me is the best
deterrent to lot of social maladies like
corruption. Media can play the watch
dog role to ensure that the government
schemes function properly and corrup-
tion is contained.
Desertication is too big and urgent
a problem to be taken lightly. As the
executive secretary of United Nations
Conference on Environment and De-
velopment (UNCED), better known as
the Rio Conference. Luc Gnacadja,
had said If we cannot nd a solution
to this problem ... in 2025, close to 70
percent [of the planets soil] could be
affected, Gnacadja said. There will
not be global security without food
security. Now with a billion people
under threat from further desertica-
tion- the threat is staring at our face.
We better act fast.
(DR. MRINAL CHATTERJEE is a distin-
guished teacher, author and media trainer
in India. He has worked in almost all me-
dia with lan. He is a very popular column-
ist in Orissa. His columns appear in several
newspapers and periodicals in Orissa.
DESERTED
A S I A N A R M A G E D D O N
Changing weather patterns are accelerating and
intensifying the desertication process which
could result in forced migration and conicts
STRANDED ON
DRYLAND
FUTURE OF SOUTH ASIA
T
he growing threat of desertication
and land degradation in South
Asia will have long-term impacts
on the enormous population that
calls the region home. Desertication re-
ceived global attention after severe
droughts in the Sahel region in Africa
between 1968 and 1973 that caused famine
and dislocation on a massive scale. Since
then, several international efforts have
tackled desertication, leading to the
adoption of the United Nations Conven-
tion to Combat Desertication (UNCCD)
in 1994. Under the Convention, deserti-
cation is dened as, land degradation in
arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas
resulting from multiple factors, including
climatic variations and human activities.
Changing weather patterns, in addition to
unsustainable development practices, are
accelerating and intensifying the deserti-
cation process and could result in forced
migration and conicts.
STATUS OF DESERTIFICATION
The spread of land degradation and deser-
tication is no longer limited to the arid
regions of a country. Increasingly, more
cultivable land is being affected or is at risk
of land degradation and desertication,
causing severe distress to the agrarian
population. Between 25 percent and 32
percent of Indias total geographical area
is affected by some form of desertication
and land degradation respectively. Addi-
tionally, degradation of drylands, which
accounts for roughly 69 percent of the
countrys land area, could have severe
implications on the livelihood and food
security of millions, especially the poor.
States such as Rajasthan, Kashmir, Gu-
jarat and Maharashtra are prone to deser-
tication at present.
Similarly, Bangladesh and Nepal are
threatened by desertication, though
both countries have abundant water re-
sources. Around 43 percent of Bangla-
deshs total geographical area is subjected
to various forms of land degradation.
Land degradation is more pronounced in
the North Western region of the country,
which includes densely populated areas
such as Rajshahi, Pabna, Bogra and other
adjoining areas. In Nepal, around a third
of the total area in the Himalayan region
has little to no vegetation, making it a
threatened ecosystem, which demon-
strates the characteristics of cold desert.
It has been estimated that approximately
10,000 hectares of highland areas in the
Western part of Nepal are slowly showing
signs of desertication.
SHIFTS IN CLIMATE
The South Asian region is extremely sus-
ceptible to drought, variability in mon-
soons, oods and other extreme weather
events. Thus, cultivation of land and water
availability, are extremely vulnerable to
climatic shifts, especially in the densely
populated areas of the region. Soil erosion
due to water and wind erosion has resulted
in large tracts of land being classied as
semi-arid to arid in the region. In India,
soil erosion contributes to over 71 percent
of the land degradation. Wind erosion,
which is more dominant in the Western
region of India, has led to loss of topsoil,
resulting in degradation of over 5 percent
of total geographical area of the country.
The most prevalent form of degrada-
tion in South Asia is caused by water and
occurs widely in all agro climatic zones of
the region. According to Nepals National
Action Programme on Land Degradation
and Desertication, erosion due to water
was responsible for 50 percent of deserti-
cation across the country in 2004. During
the monsoon season, large areas along
river banks erode, creating acute socio-
economic problems. Between 1973 and
1996, approximately 70,000 hectares of
land along the banks of the Brahmaputra-
Jamuna were lost to erosion in Bangla-
SOWMYA SURYANARAYANAN
Research Analyst,
Strategic Foresight Group
DESERTED
A S I A N A R M A G E D D O N
desh. The process of soil erosion due to
water is likely to intensify over the next few
decades, as the impacts of climate change
become increasingly intense and visible.
Conversely, scarce water resources trig-
gered by scanty rainfall and high evapora-
tion in dryland areas of the region increase
stress on land due to the rising demand for
agriculture and fodder production for
livestock. In addition, the problem of sa-
linity has also resulted in degradation of
fertile land. Roughly 6.73 million hectares
of land area is affected by salinity in India.
Around 3080 percent of groundwater in
North Western states of the country is ei-
ther saline or brackish and is unt for ir-
rigation. Large scale cultivation of prawns
using sea water in the coastal belts of India
and Bangladesh has also degraded water
and land resources. In Bangladesh, the
groundwater table uctuates between
8.95m to 18.56m during the dry season due
to over-extraction of water, resulting in
acute water shortages.
ANTHROPOGENIC FACTORS
Anthropogenic causes include expansion
of agricultural activities and unsustainable
agricultural practices such as intensive
cultivation, use of pesticides, poor irriga-
tion practices, and overgrazing. Given that
the regions primary occupations include
agriculture and animal husbandry, intense
pressure on the land has caused land deg-
radation and desertication. India has
livestock population of about 485 million,
burdening the limited land resources for
fodder. More importantly, the growing
population pressure on land, expanding
urban areas and poor resource manage-
ment have resulted in land degradation.
In Bangladesh, mining of sand from sev-
eral agricultural lands for construction
purposes, such as from the Northern Pied-
mont areas and greater Dinajpur and
Rangpur districts, has increased the area
of fallow lands.
Land degradation in India, Bangladesh
and Nepal has been exacerbated by the
expansion of rain-fed cultivation onto
marginal lands, deforestation, overgraz-
ing, groundwater extraction and uncon-
trolled harvesting of biomass. Moreover,
deforestation in the Terai region in Nepal,
in an effort to bring more land under cul-
tivation, has increased the rate of erosion.
Between 1990 and 2000, Nepal has lost an
average of 917 sq. km of forest per year.
This constitutes a vicious cycle linking
deteriorating natural resources to deterio-
rating livelihoods as people need to en-
croach further on fragile soils, sparse
vegetation and limited water resources to
meet their basic needs.
FOOD SECURITY
As harmful climatic processes such as er-
ratic monsoons and droughts occur more
often in the future, the South Asian region
is likely to face considerable food security
challenges. Recurring droughts and con-
tinued desertication will hamper agricul-
tural production in the region as fertile
tracts of land become unproductive. Loss
of cultivable land will result in reduction
of the vegetation cover and could eventu-
ally alter the livestock population of the
region. The 1999 drought in India dis-
tressed the lives of nearly 100 million
people and 60 million livestock mostly in
the states of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Andhra
Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. The overall
loss in food grain production in the coun-
try was 15 percent, while states such as
Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh incurred
a loss of 10-30 percent in food grain pro-
duction. Continuous desertication and
land degradation in the region could result
in loss of livelihood and exacerbate pov-
erty levels in the future.
Approximately, 75 percent of Nepals
total workforce and over 50 percent of
India and Bangladeshs workforce are
engaged in the farm sector. Estimates sug-
gest that the ratio of cultivable land to the
population i.e. amount of acre held by a
person, is decreasing at a rapid pace in the
region. The land-man ratio in the North
Western parts of Bangladesh has de-
creased signicantly to 23.2 percent as
compared to the ratio of 17.2 percent in
the whole country, primarily due to deser-
tication. Moreover, it has been calculated
that the loss of crops due to reduced pro-
duction in drought prone lands and the
cost incurred as a result of additional ag-
ricultural input to maintain soil nutrients
exceeds two billion USD every year in
Bangladesh. The process of land degrada-
tion and desertication further adds to the
social costs through displacement of hu-
man settlements and causing famine-like
conditions. Meanwhile, droughts across
Nepal, arising from the long dry spells
during winter, are likely to aggravate de-
sertication in the next two decades. The
land degradation, especially in the at
lands of the country, is worsening due to
sand deposition as large rivers in Nepal
change their course. The Koshi River has
destroyed approximately 1300 square kilo-
metres of land through sand deposition.
In addition, many watersheds in the coun-
try are threatened by desertication as a
result of physical and biological factors,
with reports suggesting that 0.4 percent,
1.5 percent and 11.7 percent of the water-
sheds are in very poor, poor and fair con-
dition respectively. All these factors will
threaten the food security of the country
in the coming years.
MIGRATION
Desertication coupled with water and
food scarcity will lead to forced displace-
ment and migration of millions of people
in the region. Nepal, India and Bangla-
desh are not only geographically con-
nected but also share important rivers
such as the Ganges and Brahmaputra;
therefore, the impacts of desertication in
one country are likely to spill over to other
countries in the future. As a result, there
could be a rise in conicts in the region,
especially over resources.
While it is difcult to quantify the pre-
cise impact of desertication in these
countries, it is apparent that desertica-
tion will lead to loss of food grain produc-
tion and livelihood opportunities. Degra-
dation of the land, as in the Terai region
in Nepal, will reduce economic opportu-
nities for people a trend which could
become increasingly prevalent in the fu-
ture, forcing people to migrate. Research
studies reveal that seasonal migration is
an important livelihood strategy, espe-
cially among the poor in the region. In the
North Western region of Bangladesh,
while around 19 percent of households
across all wealth groups migrate during
the lean agricultural season, about 25
percent of chronically poor households
migrate during the same period. This
region of Bangladesh will further witness
an increasing propensity for droughts and
as rainfall becomes more unpredictable
and groundwater levels decline, people
will be forced to migrate in order to se-
cure their livelihoods.
Given that more than half of Indias
cropped area is still dependent on the
monsoon rains and agriculture supports
half of Indias working population, the
resultant impact of variable precipitation
and droughts could see rural farmers from
the Northern agricultural areas moving
away to other parts of the country. West-
ern Rajasthan, which is highly prone to
droughts and land degradation, has wit-
nessed large scale migration of people
towards other states such as Gujarat,
Haryana, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh in
search of food, livelihood and water.
Regular occurrences of such scenarios are
likely to lead to the rise in permanent
displacement of environmental migrants,
as they seek greater economic and social
security. In the next decade or two, deser-
tication-induced migration not only will
lead to large inux of rural population to
urban areas but will also lead to an in-
creased and sustained movement of
people across borders. This will prompt a
wide range of security issues for the South
Asia region.
THE WAY FORWARD
Thus far the approach to deal with prob-
lems resulting from droughts and deserti-
cation has been to provide relief meas-
ures to the affected people and nance for
livestock. The governments in the South
Asian region have largely invested in im-
proving the situation through the devel-
opment of irrigation facilities, which has
further depleted the water resources in
the region. As climate change increases
the frequency of droughts and erratic
rainfall, the impact on the land will con-
tinue to be felt, thus offsetting the govern-
ments intervention.
In order to combat desertication in the
South Asian region, the focus should be to
implement long-term measures for soil
conservation, afforestation and reforesta-
tion, protection and sustainable use of
ecological areas. In addition, preservation
of grasslands and development of sustain-
able agricultural practices will denitely
help in combating desertication in the
region. Implementation of long-term
measures in an integrated manner, aimed
at preventing degradation of land and
improving productivity of land through
rehabilitation, conservation and sustain-
able management of land and water re-
sources should seek participation at the
community level. This, in concert with
inter-regional cooperation between the
countries in the South Asian region, will
help tackle the problem resulting from
recurrent droughts and continued deser-
tication in the region.
(SOWMYA SURYANARAYANAN is the
Research Analyst and Project Coordinator
of the Horizons Scanning Unit (Asia) at
Strategic Foresight Group. She works on
development issues and analyses the long-
term impacts of emerging trends on poor
communities in the South Asian region.
Sowmya was also a key researcher of
SFGs publications on water security -
The Himalayan Challenge: Water Secu-
rity in Emerging Asia and Himalayan
Solutions: Co-operation and Security in
River Basins.
G L O B A L C O N S E N S U S
DJ VU
DROUGHT TRAGEDIES?
LUC GNACADJA
Executive Secretary,
UNCCD
T
he crisis that hit eastern Africa
has affected at least 12 million
people. This is about the entire
population of Senegal of Cam-
bodia or Cuba. It is the worst drought
in this region since 1950-51, according
to the Famine Early Warning System
Network, an initiative funded by the
US Agency for International Develop-
ment. Last year, Niger suffered a simi-
lar fate. Now, as then, the upshot is
malnutrition, food insecurity and
forced mass migration. So the United
Nations and other aid agencies nd
themselves going cup in hand in search
of food and any other humanitarian
assistance to put a feeble band-aid on
a structural problem. The situation
harks back to earlier droughts in the
Sahel in the 1970s and in Ethiopia in
the 1980s. But these most recent
droughts are even more disturbing for
at least three reasons.
Firstly, as in the past, the victims are
not the primary cause of the situation.
They just happen to be both poor and
on the frontline of climate change.
Traditional coping mechanisms simply
cannot respond. Secondly, droughts do
not happen overnight. They are pre-
dictable, and for a decade, scientists
have warned we need to act now to
avert further disaster in drought prone
communities. Thirdly, it was in re-
sponse to the past drought tragedies
that the international community, in
1994, established the United Nations
Convention to Combat Desertication
and Mitigate the Effects of Drought in
those Countries Experiencing Serious
Drought and/or Desertication, Par-
ticularly in Africa (UNCCD). This
Treaty was a guarantee to the govern-
ments and communities living in the
drought-prone areas of the world that
never again would they have to suffer
the horric effects of such droughts on
a tragic scale.
BUT HERE WE ARE AGAIN; WHY?
The impacts of drought are known and
include food insecurity and hunger, loss
of livelihoods, conict, mass migration
and wild res. If large-scale loss of life
is to be avoided, adaptation strategies
must be implemented. For this, effec-
tive early warning systems and mecha-
nisms to support the vulnerable com-
munities with practical help and
appropriate technology are indispensa-
ble. A stable government is a prerequi-
site for successful implementation of
policies and strategies, especially in
seeking long-term solutions.
To aid planning, the Conventions
negotiators through the regional imple-
mentation annexes mandated the
UNCCD, 16 years ago, to support the
establishment of early warning systems
tied to food security. Countries have
made slow progress citing a lack of re-
sources. For instance, only one country
in East Africa has a monitoring system
in place. Three others are planned. Not
surprisingly then, the debate on early
warning systems and enhancing access
to practical technology to strengthen
the adaptation and resilience of the
countries and populations most vulner-
able to droughts, exacerbated by cli-
mate-change, has resurfaced.
Fortunately, the General Assembly
of the United Nations has agreed to
convene a one-day meeting at the
level of heads of state and government
on September 20, 2011 in New York to
address desertication, land degrada-
tion and drought in the context of
poverty eradication and sustainable
development. East Africa needs criti-
cal and urgent humanitarian assist-
ance now, but we would all benet
from ensuring the cycle of drought and
famine disaster are mitigated once and
for all. Recent droughts in Australia,
Russia, the United States, Southern
Europe and Mexico show this is not an
issue conned to the so-called devel-
oping world and there are global ben-
ets to be accrued from common, de-
cisive and concerted action. Will
politicians meeting in New York rec-
ognize that and show the necessary
solidarity and political will to take
decisive action?
(MR. LUC GNACADJA is the Executive
Secretary of the United Nations Conven-
tion to Combat Desertication, the UNs
top advisor on drought and desertica-
tion. Before taking up his position as
UNCCD Executive Secretary, Mr. Gnac-
adja served as Minister of Environment,
Housing and Urban Development of
Benin from 1999 to 2005. He gained rst-
hand knowledge of the UNCCD process
over a number of years in his capacity as
Head of Delegation to the Conference of
the Parties to the UNCCD. In March
2003 Mr. Gnacadja was honoured with
the 2002 Green Award in Washington
by the World Bank.
UNCCD is trying to bring concensus between
the developed and developing nations on
conicting drought prevention strategies
IS THERE POLITICAL WILL TO END THESE
DESERTED
Whenever any radical
modication in the international
foods trading system contradicts
the interest of theEU Five
they derail negotiations by
moving the focus of the talks
C H A N G I N G T R A C K S
31 T H E G R E AT I N D I A N D R E A M 30 T H E I I P M T H I N K T A N K
THE G-20 AGRICULTURE TALKS TRAP
T
he G-7 founding states currently struggle to
preserve their inuence in international eco-
nomic affairs as well as the very legitimacy of
the G-system. Accordingly, the G-20 needs
to address issues important to the rising economic
powers. Recently, they even admitted this to the fo-
rum, yet was neglected elsewhere. Notably, agriculture
ought to be tackled more fairly than what has been the
case thus far at the WTO. Otherwise, the Euro-Amer-
ican voice will be marginalised, at best only in agricul-
ture. The inclusion of agriculture in the G-20 agenda
seemed logical and desirable, but the joy may well have
been premature.
The fact that the G-20 agriculture ministers discuss
the necessity of striking down food-export restrictions,
rather than import agriculture subsidies and biofuels
is a diplomatic success of states interested in preserv-
ing the current system. At the same time, agriculture
thus became part of a broader debate. Even though
the G-20s agenda does not constitute a single package,
to some extent similarly to the WTO formula of noth-
ing is agreed until all is agreed, states obtain conces-
sions in areas important to them for the price of simi-
lar contributions in other matters. What seems
particular to those talks, however, is that the nancial
agenda, which is discussed the most, is very technical
in nature and so expert negotiations prevail over po-
litical considerations. As there is general consent at
the expert level as to the goals and means of ghting
nancial instability a consensus is relatively easy to
forge. That is not the case as regards to agriculture
MERCIN MENKES
Analyst, Polish Institute of
International Affairs (PISM),
Poland
DESERTED
however. The risks of putting agriculture
on the table are two-fold: the fate of
agriculture talks themselves, but also the
prospects of greater nancial stability.
G-20 NET FORCE
As the G-20 statements are not legally
binding, any declaration, for it to be
implemented, requires the consent of
all. A failure would undermine the exist-
ence of the forum. The process may
appear as a trade-off between a leader
in each particular case and others, who
remain supportively-neutral.
Also the EU ve (the European
Union and its four G-20 member states)
may be a driving power behind the ne-
gotiations. In that case, the political situ-
ation becomes even more complicated,
given that a considerable part of the
G-20 negotiation agenda falls under the
EUs powers. Where G-20 talks precede
the EU law-making procedure, actors
may be tempted to thus indirectly inu-
ence its outcomes. In that case, the
number of parties potentially interested
in the subject-matter rises dramatically.
It may occur that with numerous con-
icting interests a relatively small
interest group may have a decisive inu-
ence on the nal position. If four re-
maining EU actors go along, a small
lobby may obtain leverage at the inter-
national level, which may entail consid-
erable risks to others.
The functioning of such a mechanism
may be observed regarding nancial su-
pervisory and regulatory harmonisation
reform. Starting from the very bottom, in
many EU states nancial supervision
institutions, although not directly, con-
tested the establishment of the EU-mi-
cronancial supervision, as it would re-
strain their powers. This was especially
the case, in smaller states (the so-called
host states to nancial institutions regis-
tered abroad), which were afraid of losing
grounds to home state supervisors and
regulators. On the contrary, central
banks supported another leg of the nan-
cial reform the establishment of an
European institution for systematic risk
monitoring. Not only the body per se was
deemed necessary, but also the majority
of states had not established an institu-
tional framework to carry out such tasks
domestically. Given that the European
institution would build upon country
reports, the creation of respective na-
tional bodies seemed a matter of time,
whereas their placement within central
banks appeared most natural. Therefore
central banks potentially faced an exten-
sion of powers and adequate raising of
funds. With the nancial supervisor
sceptical about the reform programme,
central banks supportive and ministries
of nance rather indifferent (as in a ma-
jority of states they do not directly supervise
nancial institutions), the net force at the
domestic level was neutral. Whereas
from the perspective of the parties con-
cerned the reform is of utter importance,
heads of governments, without clear
signal from the administration, were in-
clined to adopt a supportive-neutral
position, this way strengthening their
own EU statesman image. The EU only
beneted from the establishment of new
agencies, while France and Germany (the
major nancial supervision home states)
were generally supportive of the idea.
Accordingly, at the G-20 plane ve votes
opted for enhancement of nancial su-
pervision; back at the EU level this
translated into creation of an extensive
European nancial supervision frame-
work, despite opposition by the majority
of domestic supervisors.
THE AGRICULTURE BARGAIN
Socially equitable results may be
reached through negotiations, as they
require concessions of all the major
interest groups. The most imminent
risk of such system is its degeneration
into a tyranny of the majority, where
claims of minor groups remain unan-
swered. The case of agriculture reects
the opposite risk however.
In deconstructing political discourse
again down to the electorate level, agrar-
ian lobbies can be easily spotted. Para-
doxically, even though Europe witnesses
a continuous urbanization, the political
muscle of these groups, heavily subsi-
dised and increasingly consolidated, re-
mains strong. Yet, since their political
agenda focuses on technical issues,
agrarian parties are capable of making
alliances with both left and right group-
ings (for instance in Poland agrarian par-
ties have belonged to 11 out of the 15
cabinets since 1989, both with post-com-
munists and the former democratic op-
position alike, and they even held the
Prime Minister post twice).
In turn there is no obvious opposite
interest that would unite anti-agrarian
voters. Accordingly, although some dis-
approve certain agrarian claims, no po-
litical party is willing to ght against a
possible ally, whose political goals are
not competitive. Even though the EU
agricultural import barriers increase
food prices considerably, while the value
of subsidies is questionable both on hu-
manitarian and scal-consolidation
grounds, there is no sufcient grounds
to challenge this policy. The outcomes
of an EU agriculture debate, for instance
on the resignation from canola oil
currently an obligatory component of
liquid fuels in Poland appear fore-
gone. Agrarian interests in France are
even stronger than the EU average. To-
gether it is more than sufcient to set the
tone for the EU ve.
THE IMPACT ZONE
The existing international foods trade
system is unjust, inefcient and possibly
unsustainable in the long run. Its radical
modication contradicts, however, ma-
jor interests in the EU ve (and the
US). As the developing states claims
cannot be simply ignored any longer, the
most natural solution would be to derail
negotiations by moving the focus of the
talks, which appears to have just hap-
pened at the rst G-20 agriculture min-
isters summit.
Such prospects of the G-20 agricul-
tural agenda bother victims of the cur-
rent food crisis primarily.
For the consumers from states subsi-
dising agriculture,the G-20 conclusions
entail the risk of cementing the policy,
which preserves the benets of a rela-
tively small, privileged group.
All that may well be an optimistic sce-
nario. As the non-binding character of
the G-20s conclusions requires a whole-
hearted support of all participants
regulations are adopted by consensus.
This is relatively easy in the nancial
eld, where all the parties share a convic-
tion that nancial innovations must be
curtailed, supervision should be en-
hanced and greater international coop-
eration is necessary. In agriculture,
however, divisions relate to the very
foundations of the international system,
so similar negotiation results are unlikely.
The failure to reach an agreement may
imperil the continuation of the G-20.
A self-contained change in Western
politics is unlikely. However, victims of
yet another food crisis cannot wait. De-
veloping economies, who already suc-
ceeded in the formal recognition of their
international status, should prove their
vision of and capacity to shape interna-
tional economy, by reachingout directly
to dispersed European consumers, pos-
sibly acquiring this way a powerful lever-
age on the nal G-20 talks.
(DR. MERCIN MENKES is an Analyst
at the Polish Institute of International Af-
fairs (PISM). He is also a Lecturer of
Economic Analysis of Environmental
Law at the Warsaw School of Economics.
He has written several articles on various
international magazines and journals.
G-20 CONCLUSIONS ENTAIL THE
RISK OF CEMENTING THE POLICY,
WHICH PRESERVES THE BENEFITS OF A
RELATIVELY SMALL, PRIVILEGED GROUP
C H A N G I N G T R A C K S DESERTED
DESERTED F O O D F O R T H O U G H T
TOO MANY
EMPTY BOWLS
The curses of hunger is prevalent in India not only because of its vast
population but also due to rampant wastage of food coupled with feeble
government policies such as inefcient PDS system
R. B. BHAGAT
Professor and Head, Department of
Migration and Urban Studies, Interna-
tional Institute for Population Sciences
T
he historical World Food Sum-
mit held in Rome in 1996 reaf-
rmed the right of everyone to
have access to safe and nutri-
tious food. As a result, the right to food
and freedom from hunger emerged as
an important concern during the
1990s. Again, the Millennium Devel-
opment Goals agreed by the world
leaders in 2000 reiterated this commit-
ment by pledging to halve the propor-
tion of the population who suffer from
hunger from 1990 to 2015 (United Na-
tions 2008).
Food security is the important means
to realize the right to food. It means the
access to the adequate food to all mem-
bers of the household throughout the
year. Access to food is determined by
food entitlement. The Nobel Laureate,
Amartya Sen has provided a framework
of food entitlement in order to under-
stand the access to food and genesis of
hunger. According to him, own produc-
tion, stored wealth, employment, kin-
ship and government transfers are all
possible sources of food entitlement
(Sen 1981).
Population and food are two closely
related issues prominently found in the
study of demography since its incep-
tion. The First Essay on Population
written by Robert Thomas Malthus in
1798 emphasized the inevitable imbal-
ance between population growth and
food supply which shaped much of the
debate in the area of population and
development relationship. The history
of Indias demographic and agricul-
tural growth shows that the thesis of
Malthus is not true. The availability of
food matched quite well with the re-
quirement of growing population.
However, in spite of sufcient availabil-
ity of food, India is a country of the
largest number of food insecure popu-
lation. The paper shows that popula-
tion growth of the country cannot be
held accountable for the food insecu-
rity in the country. In fact a paradox of
food stock with the government co-
exists with hunger and price rise.
LEVEL OF HUNGER
AND FOOD INSECURITY
About one-fth of Indias population is
hungry (Radhakrishna 2005). However
the level of hunger estimated by Na-
tional Sample Survey Organization
(NSSO) by a direct question whether the
household getting enough food every-
day throughout the year was only 2.4 per
cent in rural area and 0.5 per cent in
urban areas as per 61st round conducted
in 2004-05 (NSSO 2007). At combined
level of rural and urban areas only two
per cent of the household reported the
incidence of hunger which works out to
be 22 million suffering from hunger in
2004-05. This is highly an underestimate
compared to the level of poverty and
malnutrition in the country.
20 per cent of Indias population is
undernourished with a per capita ac-
cess to 1632 kcal only (Menon, Deola-
likar and Bhaskar 2008). When seen
against the norm of 2400 kcal in rural
and 2100 kcal in urban areas, the pro-
portion of population below the norm
goes as high as 79.8 per cent in rural
and 63.9 per cent in urban areas (total
75.8 per cent) in 2004-05 (Deaton and
Dreze 2009).
Poverty is the greatest barrier in the
access to food. The population below
poverty line indirectly is a true measure
of the level of hunger. However, the
poverty estimates are widely debated
now. For example, the ofcial estimate
provided by the Planning Commission
mentions that the population below
poverty line is 27.5 per cent in 2004-05,
whereas Tendulkar Committee esti-
mates Indias poverty level 37 per cent
and the N.C. Saxena committee ap-
pointed by Ministry of Rural Develop-
ment estimated 50 per cent of Indias
population living below poverty line
(Planning Commission 2008 and 2009;
Saxena 2009). Although ofcial poverty
has declined from 54.9 per cent in 1973-
74 to 27.5 per cent in 2004-05, the
number of poor has barely declined.
The number of poor was 321 million in
1973-04 against 301 million in 2004-05
(Planning Commission 2008). Accord-
ing to some leading researchers, there
are about 800 million hungry people in
the world out of which 225 million are
in India (Swaminathan 2003; Rad-
hakrishna 2005). This estimate is very
close to the number of poor of 300 mil-
lion estimated by the Planning Com-
mission which has huge implication for
Indias food security programmes at the
household level. Hunger is the most
acute form of food insecurity also
manifested in the malnourishment of
population that affects the growth of
children severely. The period from birth
to two years of age is important for op-
timal growth, health and development.
At this stage, children are not only vul-
nerable to growth retardation but also
prone to child illness such as diarrhea
and acute respiratory infections. As a
result malnutrition emerged as a sig-
nicant cause of child mortality in India
(74 deaths of children under age 5 per
1000 in 2005-06). The level of malnutri-
tion was 45.9 per cent among children
below three years of age and 56 per cent
of women aged 15-49 were found anae-
mic according to NFHS-3 in 2005-06
(International Institute for Population
DESERTED F O O D F O R T H O U G H T
Sciences and Macro International 2007).
At state level malnutrition continues to
be high even in the most food secure
states like Punjab and Haryana where
one-fourth and two-fth children are
malnourished respectively and 52 chil-
dren die before age 5. The level of
anaemia among women aged 15-49 was
38 and 56 percent in the state of Punjab
and Haryana respectively (Interna-
tional Institute for Population Sciences
and Macro International 2007).
India has not only a very high level of
hunger and malnutrition, but the recent
studies also show declining calorie con-
sumption among the poor both from
cereal and non-cereal sources (Deaton
and Dreze 2009). The cereal consump-
tion among the poor is also declining
constantly during the last two decades. It
has been made clear by the Saxena Com-
mittee that the declining cereal con-
sumption and consequently the declining
calorie intake among the poor is not the
result of poor switching over to non-ce-
real food but due to cut in their food
budget in the event of rising essential
expenditure on fuel, transport, and edu-
cation of children, medicine and trans-
port. It is clearly a distress phenomenon
which shows the increasing food insecu-
rity among Indias poor (Saxena 2009).
PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM
AND FOOD SECURITY
Indias food security programme is
heavily dependent on PDS which
started way back in 1939 during colo-
nial rule rst introduced in Bombay.
The drought and food shortage after
independence led to the strengthening
of the PDS and was expanded as a
universal scheme in the 1970s. The
main objective of the PDS was to main-
tain price stability and to eradicate
hunger (Swaminathan 2003).
The universal PDS was abolished in
1997 and a Targeted PDS was intro-
duced in its place. The targeted PDS
differed from earlier PDS requiring the
entire population to be divided into
BPL 2 (below poverty line) and APL
(above poverty line) categories. A third
group of the poorest of the poor under
BPL category was also identied and
covered under Antyodya Anna Yojana
(AAY) since 2001. All three groups
were treated differently in terms of the
quantities of food provided and the
prices at which food was supplied.
There are many problems with Targeted
PDS like inclusions and exclusions, but
most importantly targeting has affected
the functioning and economic viability
of the PDS (Swaminathan 2004).
Indias food security programme is
basically a producer cum consumer
subsidy programme. At producer level
the Govt. of India ensures that produc-
ers get the Minimum Support Price
(MSP) which protects them from the
vagaries of the market. Farmers have
now opportunity to sell their surplus
food grains to the government owned
Food Corporation of India (FCI) in
case of lack of opportunity to sell in the
open market and protects them selling
in the open market at lower price than
the MSP. The minimum support price
has seen a big jump from 2007-08.
While during 2000-01 to 2006-07, the
rise in MSP (excluding bonus) had been
gradual, in 2008-09, the MSP in almost
every crop had witnessed increases of
about 30 per cent or more. Studies also
show a close relationship between the
MSP and the market prices of the food
grain (Deshpande and Naika 2002).
This has clearly fueled the price rise of
the food grains in recent years (Minis-
try of Finance 2009).
The Central Government has
emerged as the biggest buyer of food
grains under the obligation of PDS. As
a result there is enough piling of stock
with FCI. In 2008-09, there was a
record procurement of 54.2 million
tones i.e. about one-fourth of the total
production (233.8 million tonnes). On
the other hand, total disbursement of
food grain under PDS was 34.7 million
tonnes i.e. 60 per cent the procurement
in 2008-9 (Ministry of Finance 2010).
Even during the year 2009-10 which
was severely affected by drought reduc-
ing the kharif production drastically,
there was a record procurement of
paddy (Ministry of Finance 2010:69). It
would not be untrue to say that the
FCIs godowns were bursting with
food grains, getting rotten while the
poor were dying of hunger (Swami-
nathan 2004; The Asian Age, National
Daily, 14th August, p. 10). The net ef-
fect was articial shortage of food
grain in the market, price rise and en-
couragement of hoardings by the pri-
vate traders.As such, even the Supreme
Court directed the Central Govern-
ment not to let the food grains rot but
distribute the food freely to the mil-
lions of hungry.
Further, under PDS, the states and
union territories are allocated food
grains by the Central Government, but
for many states like Bihar and
Jharkhand the offtake is as low as 50
per cent. As a result, there is a large
inter-regional variation in the access of
food grain from PDS. In rural areas
the per capita monthly purchases of
cereals from PDS was lower than 0.5
kg in poor states of Bihar, MP, UP and
Rajasthan compared to 5 kg in Kerala,
3.3 kg in Tamil Nadu and 2.3 Kg in AP
(Radhakrishna 2005).
Thus, the basic purpose of PDS to
provide access to food to the poor and
price control is defeated by the food
procurement and disbursement policy
of the Central Government. While
procurement and disbursement of food
grain is undertaken by the central gov-
ernment, the public distribution of
food is under the control of the state
governments. There is a need to decen-
tralize the procurement, storage and
disbursement of food grain in country
with a greater involvement of state
governments. This will help removing
the regional imbalances in food grain
supply and provide opportunity to
many farmers who are left out to take
the benets of procurement policy
which is mainly conned to the states
of Punjab, Haryana and Western Uttar
Pradesh. Decentralization of food
grain procurement and disbursement
would also contain wastage in storage
and reduce transportation costs. This
requires partnership between the cen-
tral and state government at each stage
of food security right from availability
of food grain through increased pro-
ductivity, encouraging procurement at
the state level so that farmers of each
state has the chance of getting benet
from MSP, promoting state specic
storage, disbursement and manage-
ment of food. A decentralized ap-
proach should also promote the in-
volvement of Panchayati Raj
institutions in the food security pro-
grammes. However, the framework of
the proposed National Food Security
Act drafted by the National Advisory
Council did mention in passing about
the decentralized approach to food
security policy, but not as a fundamen-
tal strategy of achieving food security.
CONCLUSIONS
Although food availability at the na-
tional level is a necessary condition to
eradicate hunger, it does not guarantee
the food security at the household
level. This is the paradox that India is
facing. At the moment Indias food
security policy is too centralized, heav-
ily dependent on subsidies given to the
farmers as well as consumers. It is also
based on target oriented public distri-
bution system for BPL and destitute
households. The food security pro-
grammes need to be decentralized
both in procurement, disbursement
and storage levels. At the moment,
food grain is procured by the Central
Government from few states mostly
from Punjab, Haryana and Uttar
Pradesh (from Western Uttar Pradesh
mainly) which are allocated to the
various state governments. There is a
need that the farmers of other states
are given equal opportunity of getting
betted through the procurement
policy. This will also promote state
specic storage of food grain and re-
duce wastage, save huge transporta-
tion cost and deliver food grains on
time during the time of food crisis. The
autonomy to the state governments and
involvement of Panchayati Raj institu-
tions in the procurement, disbursement
and management of food with central
assistance is crucial for the future food
security of the country. This is justied
on the ground that the states show very
diverse patterns in population, food
grain production and in levels of hun-
ger. However, states alone cannot do
this, but the Central Government
should enable the state governments by
decentralizing the food security pro-
grammes through budgetary provisions
and nancial packages. The proposed
framework of National Security Act is
highly decient on this count which
proposes nothing new but a differential
coverage and targeting, a differential
provision of food grains and a differ-
ential pricing for the vulnerable
groups. It continues to assume that
food security is the sole responsibility
of the Central Government which can
be achieved through a centralized way
targeting the needy. This has been the
notion of the central government over
the years ignoring the fundamental
character of centre and state relations
of the Indian Union. In fact govern-
ance is the serious issue which failed
the PDS and other centrally sponsored
programmes in many states. This is
high time that we must address the
centrestate relation in food security
programmes and promote decentrali-
zation over centralization in view of the
overriding importance of states in im-
plementing the most of the develop-
ment programmes including employ-
ment generation, poverty eradication
and food security.
(DR R. B. BHAGAT is working as Pro-
fessor and Head, Department of Migra-
tion and Urban Studies, International
Institute for Population Sciences. His
research areas include migration, ur-
banization and environment; Demogra-
phy, ethnicity and politics.
FOOD SECURITY PROGRAMMES
MUST BE DECENTRALIZED BOTH IN
PROCUREMENT, DISBURSEMENT AND
STORAGE LEVELS TO MAKE IT WORK
DESERTED
S T A T E O F A S T A T E
AXING
More vigilance and greater conservation efforts
on the part of government are needed to
counter the growing threat of deforestation
PRABHA PANTH
Professor of Economics,
O.U. P.G. College, Secunderabad
I
ncreasing commercial use of forests
has affected their ecological role, and
deterioration of the ecological system
will affect both the economy and the
environment in the long run. It is there-
fore necessary to achieve long-term
conservation of forests to ensure their
sustained availability for both ecological
and economic requirements. Sustainable
development of forests formed part of
the discussions in the Forum for Forest
Principles, UNCED at Rio de Janeiro in
1992. Sustainable forest management
and ecosystem approach aim at promot-
ing conservation and management prac-
tices which are environmentally, socially
and economically sustainable, and which
generate and maintain benets for both
present and future generations.
Forest conservation, preservation,
sustainability and management are terms
that are generally used interchangeably
as they are very closely connected to each
other. Preservation is regarded as an ac-
tivity of protecting something from loss
or danger, while Conservation is dened
as the preservation and careful manage-
ment of the environment and of natural
resources . Hence conservation refers to
protection plus improvement in the
resource base. Sustainability is the capac-
ity of the system to endure or continue.
It is the ability of a unit or a system to
continue in existence under opposing
or critical conditions. In Resource
Economics it is achieved by equating
growth of the renewable resource with its
rate of exploitation, so as to keep total
stock constant.
CONSERVATION OF FORESTS
Forest conservation can be interpreted
as either increase, or at least maintaining
the total area under forests, and under
forest cover. The term sustainability
has a different connotation in Natural
Resource Economics. Here sustainabil-
ity entails that the rate of exploitation of
forests should equal the rate of its regen-
eration (Tietenberg, 2004). However, it is
difcult, if not impossible to measure
both these variables. For sustainable
development, the rate of exploitation of
forests or rate of tree felling should be
equated with tree growth. Data on tree
felling is not accurate as there is a large
amount of illegal felling of trees, which
is not recorded (State of Forest Report,
2005). Forest area and cover may shrink
due to developmental activities such as
construction of roads, railways, dams,
mining, etc., or forest land may be con-
verted legally or illegally into agriculture
land, settlements, and for other non for-
est purposes. Studies have shown that
these diversions are rarely recorded by
the Forest Dept in its reports (Gulati
and Sharma).
As for forest regeneration, estimation
of the success of reforestation pro-
grammes is difcult and complex. It is
not a simple case of equating the area
reforested with the area degraded. This
is because reforestation programmes
may end up as plantations or monocul-
ture or with invasive species, as hap-
pened in the 80s with the ill fated euca-
lyptus plantations. Again, although
reforestation efforts replace trees, the
replenishment of biodiversity loss from
forests is rarely taken into account. It
may not be possible to replenish the rich
biodiversity of ora and fauna that had
characterised the deforested area. Also,
the area degraded may not be the area
reforested, so that ecological degrada-
tion may be going on in one area, while
forest cover increases in another. Eco-
logically speaking, they cannot cancel
out each other.
Another problem is with regard to the
growth of seedlings not all will grow
up to be fully developed trees, as they
may wither away, or be looped and cut
for rewood, or eaten by cattle. Even if
they survived, it will take them a decade
or more to achieve adult status. Yet
another aspect to be kept in mind is that
harvesting timber is a continuous proc-
ess, and so should be matched with an
equal number of seedlings planted
every year. Plantations on degraded
forest land do not increase the net for-
est area, but only increase the tree
density. Other problems include fake
reporting of plantation to meet targets,
and inability of satellite pictures to dis-
cern young plantations.
Therefore we use the more non con-
troversial term conservation, which
THE FORESTS
DESERTED
S T A T E O F A S T A T E
refers to both maintenance and growth
of forests.
REASONS FOR LOSS OF
FOREST COVER
In spite of the various motivations for
forest conservation, the AP forest dept
has not been able to achieve its goals. The
following reasons have been put forth for
the fall in forest cover in AP.
Population: Forests are under tremen-
dous pressure due to about 20 million
people being directly or indirectly de-
pendent upon it for livelihood.
Development Projects: Besides demands
of development like irrigation projects,
laying or improvement of the existing
roads and power supply lines, mining of
coal and minerals etc. puts additional
pressure on the forests.
Encroachments: It was reported that
fresh attempts on encroachments had
contributed to nearly 65% of the nega-
tive changes.
Plantations: Rest of the negative changes
are attributed to preparation of forest
lands for raising semi mechanical planta-
tions and rotational felling of eucalyptus
and other plantations.
Diversion to other uses: Diversion of
forests to other legal and illegal activi-
ties is yet another reason for decrease
in forest cover, though data for this is
not available.
Rotational Felling of timber: The main
reasons for decrease in forest cover are
due to rotational/clear felling of matured
plantations and diversion of forest lands
under FCA (AP SOFR 2010). In spite of
ban on tree felling, timber, bamboo, and
industrial wood are being regularly har-
vested in AP forests. The total timber
harvest grew by about 66% from 2002-03
to 2005-06. The maximum timber har-
vested was in Adilabad in 2002 it was
more than 50%, followed by Rajamun-
dry. In the next ve years, the share of
Adilabad has fallen, though it still consti-
tutes the largest share of timber cutting
by the Dept. It should be noted, that
Adilabad has more than 52% of the
States Dense Forests, and more than
20% of Moderately Dense forests. Over
the years, the dept has spread its net to
include other forest circles, such as
Khammam, Ananthapur, etc. However
Hyderabad, Tirupathi and Srisailam have
not been exploited for timber by the
Dept, though obviously tree cutting has
been carried on due to other reasons,
mainly in Hyderabad, such as road widen-
ing, construction, and extension of other
utilities such as water pipelines, power
cables, drains, etc.
Industrial Wood: Industrial cutting of
wood reached a high level during 2004-
05, but has fallen subsequently. Kham-
mam provided the bulk of industrial
wood (86%) initially, but this has fallen
over the years. However even in 2008-09,
it provided the maximum of 35%. Raja-
mundry got a burst in 2003-04, providing
more than 50%, but this has subsequent-
ly fallen. Other forests in Vishakapatnam,
and Srisailam are now being exploited for
industrial wood.
Fuel Wood: Surprisingly, the demand for
fuel wood which was zero for three years
seems to have increased tremendously in
2008-09, while that of timber seems to be
falling. One of the objectives of forest
conservation was to reduce fuel wood
use, by promoting alternative energy such
as natural gas, biogas, and solar energy in
village and forest communities (AP forest
Dept). However the increase in fuel wood
felling seems to show that this scheme has
not succeeded, as can be seen by its mas-
sive growth of over 400% from 2008-09.
REFORESTATION
According to the Vision 2020, AP is sup-
posed to have taken up a massive refor-
estation drive to restore the degraded
forests, and to bring more land under
forests. However, the ndings depicted
above do not seem to support this claim.
Total Growing Stock in the 63,814 sq
km of recorded forest area was estimated
to be 232 million cubic meters and the
average growing stock of the state was
36.37 cubic meters per Ha. But the State
forest growing stock has decreased from
291.394 million cubic meters to 232 mil-
lion cubic meters in 2009 (AP Forestry
Inventory Report 2009). This does not
augur well for forest conservation and
sustainable development.
The JFM programme is supposed to
have raised 3535.62sq kms of plantations
in AP till 2009, comprising of teak, non-
teak, tamarind, red sanders, etc (AP
Forests at a glance 2010). However the
same website shows that by 2009, the for-
est cover under JFM programmes had
fallen by-3315.91 sq kms.
If we look into forest land under differ-
ent legal classications, we nd that the
Government of AP seems to have been
converting more of its forest lands from
Protected and Unclassied, into Re-
served Forests. The share of Reserved
Forests increased from 67.5% in 1956-57,
to 79% in 1991-92, while that of other two
have fallen (26% to 19%, and 8% to 1.5%
respectively, and have remained constant
for the past 18 years). Reserved forests are
not supposed to permit any type of eco-
nomic activity, and so by notifying the
maximum area under this category, the
government of AP may have hoped to
show conservation.
Forest area may remain constant, be-
cause it is based on Governments clas-
sication. However, forest cover has not
remained so. Forest Cover has fallen
from about 44.6 thousand sq km in 2001
to 42.2 thousand sq km in 2008, a fall of
5.35%. Ofcial data shows that eco-
nomic activity is permitted on only Un-
classed Forests, which constitute only
1.5%. But the fact that so much of forest
cover is decreasing shows that the Re-
served and Protected Forests are not
being conserved, and that economic ac-
tivity and tree felling are going on in
these areas.
Not only is forest cover falling, but
dense forests are increasingly getting
converted to open forests and scrub land,
showing that tree cover is thinning out. If
we look at forest density, then Dense
Forests registered a negative growth of
24% over the eight years from 2000
2008, while Open Forests and Scrub land
grew by 20.4% and 36.3% respectively.
Also the share of Dense Forests has
fallen from 47.4% in 2000, to 35% in
2008, while that of Open Forests have
increased from 34.5% to 40.6%. Simi-
larly Scrub land has increased from 18%
of forest area to 24% in 2008.
Joint Forest Management was set up
to encourage local communities to take
up forest conservation. However the last
two years data shows that the forest
cover under VSS has fallen by around
23%, while that under notied or govern-
ment forest has fallen by 76%. This seems
to indicate that VSS has also not been
successful in conserving forest cover.
Data on district wise distribution of
forests and conservation shows that the
net change in forest cover in 2008 as
compared to 2007 was negative for all the
12 forest divisions of AP. The maximum
loss of forest cover has been in Kham-
mam 58.52 sq km, more than half of
the total deforestation in AP. This is fol-
lowed by Rajamundry with nearly 23 sq
km loss.
In spite of the Forest departments
claims, tree felling is continuing. Thus
total timber harvest grew by about 66%
from 2002-03 to 2005-06. The maximum
timber harvested is in Adilabad, followed
by Rajamundry. Wood for industrial uses
has also been growing by 14.27%. Al-
though the Forest Department claims
that the JFM programme was supposed
to have raised 3535.62sq kms of planta-
tions in AP till 2009, the forest cover
under JFM programmes had actually
fallen by 3315.91 sq kms.
Therefore forest conservation in AP
does not seem to have yielded results, as
forest cover has been falling. Rising tree
harvesting for fuel, timber, and industrial
cuts, plus diversion of forest land to non-
forest uses are nibbling away forest cover
in the state, though forest land is nomi-
nally constant. Some highly forested cir-
cles in AP have shown deterioration of
their forest cover, or conversion of dense
forests to open and scrub land. Hence
more vigilance and greater conservation
efforts are needed to ensure that the re-
maining forests of AP are sustained for
the future.
(DR. PANTH is a professor at Osmania
University, Hyderabad. Her area of spea-
cialisation is Environmental Economics
and have published about 22 articles in
various academic journals and presented
them at different seminars. She have also
completed a UGC major research project
entitled: The Economic Signicance of
Wastewater Management: A case study of
Bolaram Industrial Estate. This article is
based on one of the chapters .
CONSTANTLY DIMINISHING FOREST
COVER IS A TESTIMONY TO THE FACT
THAT THE RESERVED AND PROTECTED
FORESTS ARE NOT BEING CONSERVED
Since its incorporation (1973), IIPM has been an institution with privileged traditions, in the diversity of its fraternity,
its global outlook, its world class research and its commitment to alternative national economic planning process.
It can be said, without much oversimplication that there are no underdeveloped economies. There are only under
managed countries. Japan 140 years was ago was an underdeveloped country by every material measurement. But it very
quickly produced management of great competence, indeed of excellence. The policy inference is that management is
the prime mover and development is the consequence. At IIPM, every one considers that development is a matter of
human energies rather than economic wealth. And the generation and direction of these human energies is the task of
management. Accordingly, we formed The Great Indian Dream. Unlike any other dream, this is one dream which each
one of us are determined to realise and that too in our own lifetimes. Each bit of cynicism and condemnation from
pessimists makes us evolve even stronger and determined.
All our endeavours and initiative is towards realisation of this dream, where in we produce committed bare foot
managers and entrepreneurs who are needed by nation, on an insistent basis. As an educational institute, we aim at
initializing a three dimensional personality in IIPMites, viz.
n
Pursuit of knowledge in economics and management
n
Commitment to economic, social, political and technological upliftment of masses and
n
Cultivation of taste for literature, ne arts and etc.
Economists often have limited access to the practical problems facing senior managers, while senior managers often
lack the time and motivation to look beyond their own industry to the larger issues of the global economy. It has set
before it the twin tasks: to reorient education and research towards the needs of both the private and public sectors and
to establish the link between the National Economic Planning and the development of private enterprises in Indian
economy. IIPM dares to look beyond, and understands that what we teach today, other adopt tomorrow. IIPMs service
output (education, research and consulting,) is a unique combination of two distinct disciplines: economics and
management. Through this integration, IIPM helps guide business and policy leaders in shaping the Indian and global
economy, bringing together the practical insights of industry with broader national and global perspectives.
A hall mark of IIPM is that it is armed with the comparative advantage of engaging the committed, passionate and
brightest management post graduates and undergraduates, who pursued the education at IIPM and subsequently joined
it, to realise the dream. IIPM alumni, spread across the globe, holding crucial decision-making positions in the corporate
sector, are bonded by the one ideology of making a positive difference, turning that ideology into a movement itself.
The Great Indian Dream is another humble initiative towards the realisation of the same and more distinctly,
engaging the broader publics and pertinent stakeholders.
IIPM: THE FUTURE IS HERE
SEARCH, SIEVE, SCHEME...
After 8 years of bringing out The India Economy Review as a quarterly journal, weve decided to rechristen it as
The Great Indian Dream and make it monthly with an idea to have a more regular impact on the Indian economy
and realise the Great Indian Dream of an educated, healthy and employed India.
In economics, like in everyday existence, it is imperative to hear, perceive and consider what others have to say.
Each issue of The Great Indian Dream brings together a selection of important contributions on a particular
theme, authored by some of the brightest minds in different areas of Indian economics. The provocation for
publishing these issues arises from the fact that over the years economic journals have become copious, exclusive
and expensive. Most of the journals and a good many of the books have gone beyond the cerebral and nancial
reach of general students and other scholars. It is for them that these issues are primarily being raised and
debated here.
Much about India is transparent enough. One does not require detailed criteria, cunning calibration or probing
analysis to pinpoint Indias problems and recognise its antecedents. There is in fact much that is perceptible about
India. But not everything about India is even if simplistic is so simple. The learned reader would appreciate the fact
that India is like an elephant that looms too large to be grasped within a distinct structure and paradigm the
constituent parts of which would fail to reveal the entirety. Obviously and observably, no suggested solution to any
protracted and complex socio-economic problem will satisfy all sides and stake-holders evenly. Consequently, there
exists an enormous diversity in economic thinking and perspectives, as is also reected in the viewpoints of
different expert contributors in this issue. The intended outcome of this exercise is to facilitate the invention,
improvement, deliberation and dissemination of innovation in economic thinking and national economic planning,
insisting merely on well-grounded, open and unbiased debates, without predetermined outcomes. It is impossible to
do justice to the entire eld of Indian economics in a single issue. The topics selected for this issue are those which
are of critical and immediate importance to India. Majority of them were freshly and exclusively written.
Encapsulated, it is a constructive attempt aimed at helping India actualise its promises and potential. The editors
hope that this issue of the GID proffer the reader a avour of dynamism and excitement and persuade her/him to
participate in the journey towards realising The Great Indian Dream. At the same time, it illuminates the terrible,
practical problems of India and Bharat.

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