MTT

Managementul transferului de
tehnologie
Masterat - Managementul afacerilor
prin proiecte, 2012 2013
Semestrul I
1 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Cuprins
Technological forecasting
Modelling diffusion
Valori si cultura in Romania modelul HOFSTEDE ptr Romania
Cross impact analysis studiu de caz - Knowledge society
GEM 2009-2011
2 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Prognoz tehnologic (Technological
Forecasting - TF)
toate ncercrile intenionate i sistematice pentru a anticipa i a nelege direcia
potenial, rata, caracteristicile i efectele schimbrilor tehnologice, n special de
invenie, inovare, adoptare i utilizare
companiile mici depind de inovaii tehnologice pentru existena lor
marile companii au nevoie de TF, n mai multe forme pentru a:
Prioritiza C & D,
Planifica de dezvoltare de noi produse,
Asigura elaborarea deciziilor strategice privind acordarea de licene tehnologice,
societi mixte, etc.
guvernele folosesc studii prospective naionale pentru a evalua cursul i impactul
schimbrii tehnologice cu scopul efecturii de politici publice. Aceasta include
ceea ce este cunoscut sub numele de evaluare tehnologic (AT) sau analiz de
impact social, care examineaz efectele probabile pe termen lung ale dezvoltrii
tehnologice pe masur ce impactul acesteia se extinde n ntreaga societate.

MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013 3
Families of Technological Forecasting
Methods
9 families: Expert Opinion, Trend Analysis,
Monitoring & Intelligence, Modeling &
Simulation, Scenarios, Statistical, Descriptive,
Creativity, and Valuing/ Decision / Economics
Methods.

1) Expert Opinion; Delphi (iterative survey); Focus
Groups [panels, workshops]; Interviews;
Participatory Techniques
2) Trend Analysis; Trend Extrapolation [Growth
Curve Fitting]; Trend Impact Analysis; Precursor
Analysis; Long Wave Analysis
3) Monitoring and Intelligence Methods:
Monitoring [environmental scanning, technology
watch]; Bibliometrics [research profiling; patent
analysis, text mining]
4) Statistical Methods: Correlation Analysis,
Demographics, Cross Impact Analysis, Risk
Analysis, Bibliometrics [research profiling;
patent analysis, text mining]
5) Scenarios: Scenarios [scenarios with consistency
checks; scenario management]; Scenario-
simulation [gaming; interactive scenarios]; Field
Anomaly Relaxation Method [FAR]

6) Modeling and Simulation: Agent Modeling, Cross Impact
Analysis, Sustainability Analysis [life cycle analysis],
Causal Models, Diffusion Modeling, Complex Adaptive
System Modeling (CAS) [Chaos]; Systems Simulation
[System Dynamics, KSIM]; Technological Substitution;
Scenario-simulation [gaming; interactive scenarios];
Economic base modeling [input-output analysis];
Technology Assessment
7) Valuing/Decision/Economics Methods: Relevance Trees
[futures wheel], Action [options] Analysis; Cost-benefit
analysis, Decision anaysis [utility analyses]; Economic
base modeling [input-output analysis];
8) Descriptive and Matrices Methods: Analogies,
Backcasting, Checklist for Impact Identification;
Innovation System Modeling; Institutional Analysis,;
Mitigation Analysis; Morphological Analysis;
Roadmapping [product-technology rodmapping]; Social
Impact Assessment; Multiple perspectives assessment;
Organizational analysis; Requirements Analysis [needs
analysis]
9) Creativity; Brainstorming [brainwriting; nominal group
process (NGP)]; Creativity Workshops [future
workshops]; TRIZ; Vision Generation; Science Fiction
Analysis

4 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
S-curve
(S-shaped curve)
is a graph commonly encountered when plotting various aspects of technological
developments. For example, growth of knowledge in a newly opened field
(Isenson and Hartman models), adoption of a new technology are often very well
described by an S-curve.
The illustration shows how successive technologies for tire cords (cotton, rayon,
nylon and polyester) outperformed older ones and replaced them in the
marketplace. After a certain point spending money on research in the old field is
simply pointless and the old technology dies out.
Similar graphs can be made for generational changes in various areas, with new
products starting small, gaining momentum, quickly winning the marketplace and
then slowly reaching the saturation.
5 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
The envelope S-curve
"One adaptation of the S-curve is known as the envelope S-
curve, which takes into consideration successive generations
of technologies that provide the same benefits. The term
"envelope" refers to the curve that connects the tangents of
the successive individual S-shaped curves.
A combination of successive S-curves can produce linearly or
exponentially growing graph. For example, many successive
paradigms in computing, taken together produce exponential
growth in computational capacity over 100 years (Kurzweil,
2001, 2003).
6 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Forbes magazine - technology diffusion rates for various media and
communications technologies since their year of inception
MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013 7
How long it took before various technologies reached 50% household
penetration?
MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013 8
The extent of household diffusion over time
MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013 9
Modelling diffusion
S-Curve Example
- shows the time of adoption of buyers for the
product. If the buyer is to the left of the
vertical line in their time of adoption they
are innovators, early adopters or part of
the early majority, if to the right they are
the late majority or the laggards.
Time of Adoption of
Innovation displays different
types of S curves developed from
alternative types of product sales
forecasting models. They will be
discussed in detail in a latter section of
this investigation.
10 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
S-Curves for the Diffusion of Innovations
The "S-curve" model is what is known as a
"single purchase" model in that it forecasts
sales of products that are typically bought
just once, or infrequently, such as consumer
durables or industrial products such as
mainframe computers.
In addition, the model can be used to forecast
trial or first time purchases for repeat
purchase goods such as snack foods and
detergents, but it does not provide a forecast
of repeat purchase levels.
In order to estimate repeat purchase sales and
differentiate them from trial sales,
businesses would typically need to carry out
test markets or simulated test markets and
apply different forecasting methods that
would provide a steady-state market share
estimate rather than a time-based
Adoption curve as is provided by diffusion
models. However, all products, regardless of
how often they are purchased, have a first
purchase sales volume curve.
11 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Diffusion of UK residential telephones


12
12 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Sursa: Modelling and forecasting
the diffusion of innovation A 25-
year review International Journal
of Forecasting 22 (2006) 519 545

The diffusion of a single innovation in a single market
Bass (1969) suggests that individuals are influenced by a desire to innovate (coefficient of innovation p)
and by a need to imitate others in the population (coefficient of imitation q).
The probability that a potential adopter adopts at time t is driven by (p+qF(t)) where F(t) is the proportion of
adopters at time t. Relating the similarity of innovation diffusion with the spreading of an epidemic,
imitation is often called a contagion effect.
In a pure innovation scenario (p >0,q =0), diffusion follows a modified exponential; in a pure imitation
scenario (p=0, q>0 ), diffusion follows a logistic curve. Other properties are that (p+q) controls scale
and (q/p) controls shape (the condition (q /p)>1 is necessary for the curve to be S-shaped).
Bass model (1969) considered a population of m individuals who are both innovators (those with a constant
propensity to purchase, p) and imitators (those whose propensity to purchase is influenced by the
amount of previous purchasing, q.
The probability density function for a potential adopter making an adoption at time t is:
f(t)=(p+q F(t)) (1-F(t))
The corresponding cumulative density function is

) ) ( ( ) exp( 1
) ) ( exp( 1
) (
t q p
q
p
t q p
t F
13 Master PE 2010 - 2011
13 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
The diffusion of an innovation is a complex process
involving large numbers of individual decisions
Van den Bulte and Stremersch (2004) performed a meta-analysis on the use of the Bass model
applied to new product diffusion. The study involved 746 different Bass estimations spread
over 75 consumer durables and 77 countries. The international comparison enabled them to
test several sets of hypotheses, relating the diffusion to both the national culture and the
nature of the product. The contagion-based hypotheses for which they found support are that
(q/p) ratios are:
negatively associated with individualism (individualism means more immunity to social
contagion) or positively associated with collectivism;
positively associated with power-distance (a measure of the hierarchical nature of the
culture). The assumption here is that classes tend to adopt a new product at a similar
time;
positively associated with masculinity (cultures where there is a clear distinction between
gender roles).
Contrary to their expectations, they found a negative association with uncertainty avoidance (a
measure of how threatened people feel when faced with a novel opportunity). A positive
association is found between q/p and the Gini coefficient of income inequality, supporting the
income heterogeneity hypothesis.
In cases where the products concerned had competing standards e.g. VCRs (Betamax versus VHS),
PCs (DOS/Windows versus Apple), they found that this technological issue dominated the
social or income effects.
14 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Dimesiuni culturale - modelul G. Hosftede (2012)
MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013 15
90
30
42
90
40
85
70
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
PD
IND
MAS
UA
Romania Bulgaria
Valorile si comportamentul romanesc
n anii '60-70, profesorul Geert Hofstede de la Universitatea din Maastricht a realizat o cercetare asupra
diferentelor de valori ntre angajatii firmei IBM din peste 40 de tari si a ajuns la concluzia ca fiecare natiune
poate fi descrisa din perspectiva locului pe care l ocupa pe o scala de la 0 la 100 fata de:

Indexul distantei fata de putere - PDI - (Modul de perceptie al inegalitatii sociale, al puterii si al autoritatii si
modul de relationare cu autoritatea);
Individualism - IDV - (Modul de relationare ntre indivizi si grupuri);
Masculinitate - MAS - (Implicatiile sociale si emotionale ale faptului de a fi nascut de sex masculin sau
feminin);
Indexul de evitare a incertitudinii - UAI - (Modalitati de a face fata incertitudinilor si situatiilor ambigue,
controlul agresiunii si exprimarea emotiilor);
Orientare pe termen lung - LTO - (Orientarea catre viitor, spre deosebire de orientarea catre trecut si
prezent).
Intentia initiala a lui Hofstede a fost de a ntelege de ce unele organizatii IBM din tari diferite erau mai productive
decat altele, desi aveau o cultura organizationala similara si foloseau aceleasi tehnici de recrutare, care ar fi
putut induce comportamente similare. Concluzia lui Hofstede a fost ca angajatii din organizatii si vor nsusi
practicile locale sau straine pe care le indica organizatia, dar si vor pastra valorile culturii din care provin
si care i caracterizeaza.

- implicatiile acestor dimensiuni asupra comportamentului de la locul de munca si, n consecinta, cele mai aplicabile teorii de management si
management al resurselor umane n diferite culturi.
PDI poate functiona ca un barometru al nivelului de coruptie pe care l favorizeaza o anumita cultura.
IDV este direct proportional cu PIB-ul pe cap de locuitor: cu cat PIB-ul creste, cu atat creste nivelul de individualism.
UAI semnalizeaza gradul de toleranta fata de minoritati, deschiderea spre noile tehnologii si cantitatea de timp petrecuta pentru planificare
strategica n organizatii.
LTO pot indica nivelul de economii al oamenilor din cultura respectiva si nivelul de investitii n valori imobiliare.


Sursa: Autor Adina LUCA, revista Cariere: 19 mai 2005; Studiul a fost realizat de organizatia Gallup Romania, cu sprijinul lui Geert Jan Hofstede; proiect ce reprezinta o noua etapa n ncercarea de a
ntelege diferentele si similitudinile dintre valorile si comportamentul romanesc si cel al altor natiuni si o modalitate de a oferi explicatii pentru comportamentul si preferintele romanilor.
16 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Valorile si comportamentul romanesc -
Rezultatele studiului din 2005 pentru Romania, pe
scurt
Implicatii ale dimensiunilor culturale - Pozitia relativa a unei tari pe scala de la 0 (scazut) la 100 (nalt)
din cele cinci puncte de vedere este un bun predictor al comportamentului si normelor sociale, de
familie si educatie, comportamentului la locul de munca, organizarea statala, culoarea politica si
ideile. Datele unei astfel de cercetari sunt interpretabile astfel, din punctul de vedere al scalei de la
0 la 100: ntre 0 si 40 - nivel scazut, ntre 40 si 60 - nivel mediu, peste 60 - nivel ridicat.
Cercetarea a demonstrat ca Romania are valori similare cu alte tari balcanice, si anume: distanta mare
fata de autoritate, colectivism ridicat, feminitate, grad ridicat de evitare a incertitudinilor si
orientare pe termen scurt. Putem concluziona ca Romania, asemenea celorlalte tari din Balcani
(Bulgaria, Grecia, Serbia, Macedonia, Albania), se afla la polul opus tarilor anglo-saxone, din care
mprumuta toate practicile manageriale si de management al resurselor umane.
Geert Hofstede a estimat pentru Romania niveluri foarte ridicate pentru indicii reprezentand
distanta fata de putere (90) si evitare a incertitudinii (61), nivel scazut pentru indicele
reprezentand individualismul, adica un grad ridicat de colectivism (30) si un grad moderat
de masculinitate (42). Desi nu a oferit o estimare pentru orientarea pe termen lung, putem
prespune ca si Romania are, ca si toate tarile din Europa, o orientare pe termen scurt.
Complexul puterii - Indexul distantei fata de putere a rezultat surprinzator de scazut. Specialistii de la
Interact considera ca nivelul PDI este n realitate foarte nalt, cel putin 70. Romanii, n general,
prefera sa nu intervina n exercitiul autoritatii si sa se supuna ordinelor date de sus. Prin acest
comportament, romanii semnalizeaza nevoia de centralizare n luarea deciziilor, nevoia de a avea
lideri autoritari si dorinta de a urma regulile stabilite de astfel de lideri.

17 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Valorile si comportamentul romanesc -
Rezultatele studiului din 2005 pentru Romania, pe scurt
O alta interpretare a unui index ridicat indica preferinta angajatilor pentru o relatie apropiata cu un
singur sef, pentru a obtine protectia acestuia si pentru a evita asumarea responsabilitatii unor
pareri contrare.
Personalul din organizatii cu astfel de culturi nu exprima pareri contrare fata de superior si primeste ordine pe
care le executa fara sa discute. n concluzie, n timp ce comportamentul populatiei demonstreaza o distanta
mare fata de autoritate, preferinta se ndreapta spre un stil de conducere participativ si cooperant. Diferenta
observabila dintre nivelul dorit si nivelul demonstrat prin comportament ne-a dus la concluzia existentei unui
complex de autoritate, care poate explica refuzul cu obstinatie si nedeclarat al majoritatii romanilor de a respecta
legile si autoritatea si, n acelasi timp, cererea expresa de legi si reguli. Aceasta diferenta poate explica si alte
paradoxuri, cum ar fi preferinta pentru a lucra ntr-un mediu anglo-american, cu stil de conducere participativ, prin
distanta mica fata de autoritate, precum si comportamentul pro-american al generatiilor trecute.
Indexul de evitare a incertitudinii n Romania - Romania a nregistrat un nivel ridicat de evitare a
incertitudinii - 61 - care demonstreaza ca populatia are un grad ridicat de anxietate n privinta
viitorului si prefera siguranta zilei de astazi incertitudinii zilei de maine: Nu da vrabia din mana
pe cioara de pe gard. O astfel de societate nu poate planifica strategic pe termen mai lung, pentru
ca privirea n viitor i declanseaza mecanisme defensive.
Unii romani au dificultati n a face fata unor situatii ambigue si opiniilor contrare ale altora. Daca luam n
consideratie si gradul scazut de individualism, membrii societatii nu pot tolera opinii minoritare. n
general, oamenii din astfel de culturi se simt mai confortabil n situatii de consens general. n timpuri
care genereaza anxietate, cum sunt alegerile, amenintari contra securitatii si sigurantei, sau n fata
necesitatii de a accepta ceva nou, strain, cum este tehnologia avansata sau existenta unui partid
minoritar, populatia reactioneaza negativ si emotional si se opune acceptarii. Nivelul ridicat de
anxietate are impact si asupra structurii organizationale. Actiunile preferate sunt cele care rezolva
situatia ambigua de astazi, quick fixes, fara a avea n vedere impactul lor asupra zilei de
maine. Nivelul de anxietate favorizeaza impulsul de moment, graba si exprimarea emotiei negative
fara control.
18 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Trend-impact analysis (TIA)
Trend-impact analysis is a technique developed by the Futures Group, Inc., a consulting firm, for
projecting future trends from information gathered on past behavior. The uniqueness of this method lies
in its combination of statistical methods and human judgment. If the future is predicted on quantitative
data alone, it fails to take into account the impact of unprecedented future events. On the other hand,
human judgment provides only subjective insights into the future. Therefore, since both human
judgment and statistical extrapolation have their shortcomings, they should both be taken into
consideration when predicting future trends.
In trend-impact analysis (TIA), past history is first extrapolated with the help of a computer. Then the
judgment of experts is used (usually by means of the Delphi technique) to specify a set of unique future
events which may have a bearing on the phenomenon under study and to indicate how the trend
extrapolation would be affected by the occurrence of each of these events. The computer then uses these
judgments to modify the trend extrapolation. Finally, the experts review the adjusted extrapolation and
modify the inputs in those cases in which the input appears unreasonable.
TIA can be used not only to improve forecasts of time series variables, but also to study the sensitivity
of these forecasts to policy. Of course, any policy considered should attempt to influence as many
events as possible, rather than one as in this example. Realistically, corporate actions often have both
beneficial and detrimental possibilities since they may increase both desirable and undesirable
possibilities. The use of TIA can make such uncertainties more clearly visible than is possible with
traditional methods.

MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013 19
Cross-impact analysis (CIA)
Cross-impact analysis is planned to study the impact of an event on other events. The cross-impact
analysis provides the time probability of occurrence of an event and indicates other key events which
may be monitored to keep track of the first event.
With the cross-impact matrix the effects of potential interactions among items in a forecast set of
occurrences can be investigated. If the behavior of an individual item is probable, (i.e., if it varies
positively or negatively with the occurrence or nonoccurrence of other items), the cross-impact effect is
present. Thus, using the cross-impact matrix method, it can be determined whether the predicted event
will have an enhancing or inhibiting influence upon each of the other events affected.
With the cross-impact matrix the effects of potential interactions among items in a forecast set of
occurrences can be investigated. If the behavior of an individual item is probable, (i.e., if it varies
positively or negatively with the occurrence or nonoccurrence of other items), the cross-impact effect is
present. Thus, using the cross-impact matrix method, it can be determined whether the predicted event
will have an enhancing or inhibiting influence upon each of the other events affected.
Cross-impact analysis is a technique used for examining the impacts of potential future events upon
each other. It indicates the relative importance of specific events, identifies groups of reinforcing or
inhibiting events, and unfolds relationships between events which appear unrelated. In brief, cross-
impact analysis provides a future forecast, making due allowance for interacting forces having a bearing
on the shape of things to come.
MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013 20
Metoda CIA - Cross-Impact Analysis
O limitare de baz a metodelor clasice de previziune i a metodei Delphi este c acestea realizeaz numai prognoze oarecum izolate;
mai exact, evenimentele i tendintele (trendurile) sunt proiectate pe rnd, fr o referire explicit a posibilei influene reciproce.
Totui, majoritatea evenimentelor i a evoluiilor sunt dependente ntre ele. Interdependenele ntre aceste evenimente i evoluii
pot fi luate n considerare prin analiza cross-impact - o modalitate sistematic de a examina posibile evoluiile viitoare i
interaciunile lor; metoda care ncearc s indice probabilitatea condiionat a unui eveniment, innd cont de faptul c anumite
evenimente s-au produs sau nu. Paii majori n utilizarea analizei cross-impact pentru evaluarea situaiilor viitoare sunt descrii de
ctre Helmer (1977) i Fowles (1978) ca fiind:
definirea evenimentelor i a trendurilor ce vor fi incluse n studiu;
definirea intervalului de planificare i a subintervalelor (secvene / scene);
realizarea matricelor cross-impact pentru definirea interdependenelor dintre evenimente i trenduri;
estimarea intrrilor pentru matricea cross-impact, spre exemplu, informaii cu privire la modul n care ar afecta apariia unui eveniment E sau
deviaia unui trend T, de la valorile ateptate n cadrul unei secvene date, probabilitile altui eveniment i valorile trendurilor n secvenele
ulterioare;
estimarea probabilitilor iniiale de manifestare ale fiecrui eveniment in fiecare scen; estimarea valorii fiecrui trend la nceputul fiecrei
secvene; realizarea unui test de calibrare;
definirea politicilor, aciunilor sau a testelor de senzitivitate ce vor fi utilizate cu matricea;
realizarea calculelor cross-impact; evaluarea rezultatelor.
Conceptul cross-impact (impact ncruciat) a fost propus de O. Helmer i T. Gordon, avnd legtur cu proiectarea unui exerciiu de
previziune pentru Kaiser-Aluminum (Helmer, 1977). In aceast abordare, evenimentele erau nregistrate ntr-o matrice ortogonal
(dreptunghiular) i la fiecare intersecie de linii/coloane se punea ntrebarea: Dac se va ntmpla evenimentul de pe linie, cum
ar afecta probabilitatea de apariie (manifestare) a evenimentului din coloana? Aprecierile erau nregistrate in celulele matricei.
Allen (1977) afirma c majoritatea metodelor de forecasting nu pot lua in considerare multe inter-reacii intre evenimentele
prognozate.

21 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Metoda de Prognoza - Matricea Cross I mpact (I mpact I ncrucisat)
Probabilitile iniiale de manifestare a evenimentelor, valorile trendurilor i magnitudinea impactului dintre
variabile pot fi estimate de ctre experi individuali. In general, acestea sunt estimate de ctre grupuri ce conin
experi din cadrul diferitelor discipline acoperite de evenimente (Fowles, 1978). Pentru a colecta aceste
aprecieri, pot fi folosite, de asemenea, chestionarele sau interviurile de tip Delphi. Echipa Gordon - Hayward
(1968) definete trei moduri de legtur ntre variabile. Se presupune c evenimentul E
1
se manifest; un al
doilea eveniment E
2
ar putea fi complet neafectat de ctre E
1
; ar putea fi exacerbat/intensificat de manifestarea
lui E
1
; sau poate fi inhibat de manifestarea lui E
1
. Intensificarea legturilor, acolo unde probabilitatea celui de
al doilea eveniment este mbuntit de manifestarea primului, rezult din diferite mecanisme, incluznd:
Manifestarea lui E
1
face fezabil sau practic posibil manifestarea lui E
2
. O astfel de relaie este desemnat ca
o relaie ce faciliteaz/permite (favorizeaza).
Manifestarea lui E
1
oblig manifestarea lui E
2
pentru utilizarea eficient a lui E
1
. O astfel de relaie de
intensificare este desemnat ca relaie ce provoac.
Inhibarea legturilor, acolo unde probabilitatea celui de al doilea eveniment este diminuat de manifestarea
primului, rezult din mecanisme incluznd:
Manifestarea lui E
1
face ca E
2
s fie nefezabil sau nepractic. Acest tip de relaie de inhibare este desemnat a fi
de denigrare.
Manifestarea lui E
1
oblig nemanifestarea lui E
2
pentru utilizarea eficient a lui E
1
. O astfel de relaie de
inhibare este desemnat a fi o relaie antagonist.

22 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Matricea Cross I mpact (I mpact
I ncrucisat) (2)
Odat ce modelul de impact ncruciat a fost realizat, ar trebui s fie utilizat in mod iterativ, Helmer (1977) a
descris un proces complet astfel: n etapa 1, se decide asupra evenimentelor ce se vor manifesta (prin
intermediul unei simulri Monte Carlo, de extragere a unor numere aleatorii); se ajusteaz probabilitile
evenimentelor i valorile trendurilor pentru etapa 2, n concordan cu matricea cross-impact;
se trece la etapa 2, ajustnd n continuare valorile trendurilor, adugnd deviaii aleatorii ce au fost extrase
din distribuia exogen de incertitudine adecvat.
Se decide din nou ce evenimente se manifest, se ajusteaz probabilitile evenimentelor i valorile
trendurilor pentru etapa 3, in concordan cu impactul ncruciat pentru evenimentul respectiv; se observa
deviaiile T ale valorilor trendurilor de la valorile ateptate ale acestora, n cadrul etapei 2, i se ajusteaz in
continuare probabilitile evenimentelor si valorile trendurilor pentru etapei 3, in concordan cu impactul
ncruciat pentru trendul respectiv; se aplic reportul acolo unde este cazul.
se repet procedura pentru etapele 3, 4 si aa mai departe.
Rezultatul va fi un scenariu, care este o secvena de manifestri ale evenimentelor, pe scene, si o secvena
de ajustri ale valorilor trendurilor. Diferite runde vor produce scenarii diferite din cauza elementelor
aleatorii prezente. Abilitatea de a aduga informaii (de exemplu, schimbri de politica) ce nu au fcut parte
din informaiile iniiale, face dintr-un model interactiv cross-impact, o tehnic ce are final deschis pentru
analize exploratorii (Enzer si Alter, 1978).

23 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Identificarea variabilelor cheie
- indicator de influen msoar
intensitatea cu care o variabil
acioneaz asupra celorlalte
(corespunde rndurilor din matrice)
- indicator de dependent msoar
intensitatea cu care o variabil este
influenat (este asociat coloanelor
din matrice)

MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013 24
http://forlearn.jrc.ec.europa.eu/guide/4_methodology/meth_structural-analysis.htm
Metoda CIA a incercat sa reprezinte principalele relatii dintre factori cheie ale Societatii
Cunoasterii si principalele lor forme de impact asupra factorilor asociati conditiilor de
viata la nivel european (LC), relatiilor industriale (I R) si conditiilor de munca (WC).

Sursa: Xtreme EUFORIA: Combining Foresight Methods, EU-US SEMINAR: NEW TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT, FORECASTING &
ASSESSMENT METHODS-Seville 13-14 May 2004
MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013 25
Analiza CIA Knowledge society
Analiza cross-impact este o tehnica utilizata pentru a identifica si intelege
corelatia dintre variabile. A fost implementata mai ales in exercitiile de
foresight din Franta si America Latina, ca un instrument de identificare a
modului in care evolutiile social-economice si tehnologie dintr-o arie ar
putea influenta alte arii. Beneficiul major al utilizarii analizei cross-
impact este abilitatea de a releva relatiile dintre variabilele unui
sistem.
Exercitiul CIA a contribuit la (1) identificarea influentei variabilelor
Societatii Cunoasterii asupra impactelor de trend ale conditiilor de viata,
conditiilor de munca si relatiilor industriale; (2) identificarea celor mai
puternice si celor mai inhibate impacte de trend; (3) identificarea
variabilelor consistente pentru Societatea Cunoasterii; si (4) identificarea
celor mai puternice impacte si a celor mai fragile.

MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013 26
Analiza Influenei Critice (AIC)
Metoda AIC/CIA include numeroase elemente utilizate de cele mai multe ori in conferinele despre Foresight
(exercitiu de prospectiva/previziune) i, mai ales, in cadrul analizei impactului incruciat, inclusiv un proces n
care participanii identific i analizeaz elementele care conduc la schimbri i factorii importani care le
influeneaz (i ncearc s confere prioritate acestora n funcie de importan etc). AIC este o tehnic utilizat
pentru a identifica i nelege corelaia dintre variabile. Cel mai mare beneficiu al utilizrii acestei analize
rezid din abilitatea metodei de a dezvlui relaiile existente ntre variabilele unui sistem. Metoda CIA folosete
o matrice 15x10 - att setul de 15 factori de influen ct i setul de 10 tendine previzionate n ceea ce
privete condiiile de via (LC) , relaiile industriale (IR) i condiiile de munc (WC).
Structura a fost conceput prin sesiuni de brainstorming asociate cu un proces de prioritizare al crui scop era
selectarea celor 15 factori cheie i a celor 10 efecte. Relaiile au fost reprezentate ntr-o matrice ale crei 150
de celule au fost completate prin prisma judecilor experilor. Acetia au fost rugai s atribuie valori utiliznd
urmtoarea scal:.
-3 daca un anumit factor ar avea un efect de inhibare puternic asupra impactului tendinei;
-2 pentru o influen negativ moderat;
-1 pentru o influen uor negativ;
0 pentru un efect neutru sau pentru o influen echilibrat;
+1 pentru un factor cu o influen uor pozitiv sau un efect de ntrire a impactului;
+2 pentru un efect pozitiv moderat;
+3 pentru o influen pozitiv foarte puternic.

27 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Lista variabilelor Societatii Cunoasterii - Lista factorilor
determinani ai Societii Bazate pe Cunotine
Variabila 01. Scaderea increderii cu privire la (e-) tranzactii si la protectia datelor
Variabila 02. Cresterea cererii pentru serviciile necalificate (low skill services) si scaderea ofertei
Variabila 03. Extinderea UE la 25+ si chiar mai mult
Variabila 04. Cresterea ratei pentru schimbarile climatice si incalzirea globale
Variabila 05. Cresterea gradului preferinta ptr. medii artificiale preferinta de a petrece timpul liber, spre
exemplu in parcuri tematice.
Variabila 06. Cresterea importantei educatiei cu privire la mediu natural
Variabila 07. Globalizarea: Dezvoltarea Guvernarii Globale si aparitia cresterii complexitatii in interactiunile
intereselor locale
Variabila 08. Schimbarea prioritatilor politice, spre exemplu catre durabilitate
Variabila 09. Evolutia democratiei intr-un mediu E-Government
Variabila 10. Imbtrnirea societatii (ageing society) intensificata in special de largirea UE
Variabila 11. Cresterea eterogenitatii in ceea ce priveste formele de familie
Variabila 12. Noi provocari pentru asistenta sociala si pentru sistemul de sanatate publica
Variabila 13. Larga aplicare a noilor tehnologii in cadrul serviciilor publice, cu largi implicatii pentru
sanatate, pentru educatie (dar si preocupari private).
Variabila 14. Ampla dezvoltare si raspandire a noilor metode de producere, localizare, distributie si
management pentru informatii destinate indivizilor si organizatiilor
Variabila 15. Cresterea continua a tuturor aspectelor performantelor ICT (spre exemplu conectare wireless,
stocare, dimensiune)
28 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Lista formelor de impact al Societatii Cunoasterii
asupra conditiilor de viata, relatiilor industriale si
conditiilor de viata
Impactul 01. Presiunea asupra muncii constrnge/tensioneaza balana/echilibrul munc via
Impactul 02. Aparitia unor noi forme de ingrijire a copiilor si de asistenta a celor in varsta
Impactul 03. Apariia unei societi dualiste care i vede pe cei nstrii trecnd la sistemul
privat de prestare a serviciilor, n timp ce cel public rmne celor sraci
Impactul 04. Incertitudinea i constrngerile de la locul de munc creeaz stres i mai multe
probleme de sntate asociate
Impactul 05. mbtrnirea forei de munc este incompatibil cu programul de lucru prelungit
Impactul 06. Creterea nivelului de (cyber)securitate n cadrul firmelor duce la creterea
gradului de supraveghere a angajailor
Impactul 07. Mai mult munc multi-locaie
Impactul 08. Tendine divergente n ceea ce privete contractele individuale i condiiile de
munc neo-Taylor-iste
Impactul 09. Sindicatele devin tot mai inovatoare n recrutarea i pstrarea diverselor segmente
ale forei de munc (de exemplu, contracte temporare de munc)
Impactul 10. Ocuparea locurilor de munc de ctre imigrani necalificai conduce la friciuni
ntre muncitorii strini i cei autohtoni.
29 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
GEM 2011, 2011 Extended Report:
Entrepreneurs and Entrepreneurial Employees Across
the Globe, Niels Bosma, Sander Wennekers and Jos Ernesto Amors

Global Entrepreneurship Monitor 2011 by
Donna J. Kelley, Slavica Singer and Mike Herrington
The GEM 2011 Global Report focuses on
entrepreneurs and entrepreneurial employees
across the globe. More than 140,000 adults
(1864 years of age) in 54 economies,
spanning diverse geographies and a range of
development levels were surveyed. Based on
this survey, GEM estimated that 388 million
entrepreneurs were actively engaged in
starting and running new businesses in 2011.

30 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
GEM - definitions, objectives
GEM operationalizes entrepreneurship as: any attempt at new business or
new venture creation, such as selfemployment, a new business
organization, or the expansion of an existing business, by an individual, a
team of individuals, or an established business.

- focuses on three main objectives:
To measure differences in the level of entrepreneurial activity among countries
To uncover factors determining national levels of entrepreneurial activity
To identify policies that may enhance the national level of entrepreneurial activity.
Traditional analyses of economic growth and competitiveness have tended to
neglect the role played by new and small firms in national economies.

GEM takes a comprehensive approach and considers the degree of
involvement in entrepreneurial activity within a country, identifying
different types and phases of entrepreneurship.

31 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
2011 GEM Global Report
All three types of entrepreneurship, i.e.
ambitious entrepreneurship in the sense of medium/high job growth expectation
early - stage entrepreneurial activity (MHEA),
less ambitious entrepreneurship In the sense of solo/ low job expectation early -
stage entrepreneurial activity (SLEA) and
entrepreneurial employee activity (EEA), in order to give a more
comprehensive profile of entrepreneurship for each of the 52 countries that have
participated in both the regular 2011 GEM Cycle.
MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013 32
The importance of entrepreneurship for
economic development
Business entrepreneurs drive and shape innovation, they speed up structural
changes in the economy, and they introduce new competition, thereby
contributing to productivity.
Social entrepreneurs perform a similar function in the social economy, filling
gaps in social needs that are left unfilled or poorly addressed by both
business and governments.

As an economy develops, the level of necessity-driven entrepreneurial
activity gradually declines as productive sectors grow and supply more
employment opportunities.
At the same time, opportunity-driven entrepreneurial activity tends to pick
up with improvements in wealth and infrastructure, introducing a
qualitative change in overall entrepreneurial activity.
33 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Global Entrepreneurship Monitor
Dedicated to understanding the relationship between entrepreneurship and national
economic development
54 countries; 13
th
report in the GEM series focuses on the impact of the recession on
entrepreneurship and the extent to which entrepreneurship can help reverse a
downward economic trend.
2011 GEM data show that: entrepreneurial activity declined in most GEM countries in
2011; the global economic downturn reduced the number of people who thought there
were good opportunities to start a business in many parts of the world.
the proportion of necessity-driven entrepreneurs-people starting businesses because
they felt they had no other choice-increased and attitudes towards entrepreneurship
as a career choice improved in half of the wealthier countries in GEM.
- is framed around a model, that includes a distinction among phases of economic
development, in line with Porters typology of factor driven economies, efficiency-
driven economies and innovation-driven economies
34 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
35 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
The GEM model
entrepreneurship is a complex phenomenon which spans a variety of contexts. In line with
its objectives, GEM takes a broad view of entrepreneurship and focuses on the role played
by individuals in the entrepreneurial process.
entrepreneurship is a process.
GEM observes the actions of entrepreneurs who are at different stages of the process of creating
and sustaining a business.
For GEM, the payment of any wages for more than three months to anybody, including the
owners, is considered to be the birth event of actual businesses. Individuals who are
actively committing resources to start a business that they expect to own themselves, but
who have not reached this birth event are labeled nascent entrepreneurs.
Individuals who currently own and manage a new business that has paid salaries for more than
three months but not more than 42 months are known as new business owner-managers. The
cut-off point of 42 months has been made on a combination of theoretical and operational
grounds.
The prevalence rate of nascent entrepreneurs and new business owner-managers taken together
may be viewed as an indicator of early-stage entrepreneurial activity in a country. It
represents dynamic new firm activitythe extent of experimentation in new business models
by a national population. Established business owners own and manage an established
business that has been in operation for more than 42 months. Their businesses have survived
the liability of newness. High rates of established business ownership may indicate positive
conditions for firm survival. However, this is not necessarily the case. If a country exhibits a
high degree of established entrepreneurship combined with low degree of early stage
entrepreneurial activity, this indicates a low level of dynamism in entrepreneurial activity.
36 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
The Entrepreneurial Process and GEM
operational definitions
37 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
The countries
- are grouped into three stages of economic development as defined by the
World Economic Forums Global Competitiveness Report: factor-
driven, efficiency-driven and innovation-driven.

This classification in phases of economic development is based on the level
of GDP per capita and the extent to which countries are factor driven in
terms of the shares of exports of primary goods in total exports.


Factor-driven economies are primarily extractive in nature, while efficiency-
driven economies exhibit scale-intensity as a major driver of development.
At the innovation-driven stage of development, economies are characterized
by their production of new and unique goods and services that are created
via sophisticated, and often pioneering, methods.

38 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Entrepreneurship in Efficiency-Driven Economies
As the industrial sector develops, institutions start to emerge to support further
industrialization and the build up of scale in the pursuit of higher productivity
through economies of scale.
Typically, national economic policies in scale intensive economies shape their
emerging economic and financial institutions to favor large national businesses.
As increasing economic productivity contributes to financial capital formation,
niches may open in industrial supply chains that service these national
incumbents.
This, combined with the opening up of independent supplies of financial capital
from the emerging banking sector, would spur opportunities for the development
of small scale and medium-sized manufacturing sectors.
Thus, in a scale-intensive economy, one would expect necessity-driven industrial
activity to gradually fall and give way to an emerging small scale manufacturing
sector.

39 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Entrepreneurship in Innovation-Driven Economies
As an economy matures and its wealth increases, one may expect the emphasis in
industrial activity to gradually shift toward an expanding service sector that caters
to the needs of an increasingly affluent population and supplies the services
normally expected of a high-income society.
The industrial sector evolves and experiences improvements in variety and
sophistication. Such a development would be typically associated with increasing
research & development and knowledge intensity, as knowledge-generating
institutions in the economy gain momentum.
This development opens the way for the development of innovative, opportunity-
seeking entrepreneurial activity that is not afraid to challenge established
incumbents in the economy. Often, small and innovative entrepreneurial firms
enjoy an innovation productivity advantage over large incumbents, enabling them
to operate as agents of creative destruction.
To the extent that the economic and financial institutions created during the scale-
intensive phase of the economy are able to accommodate and support opportunity-
seeking entrepreneurial activity, innovative entrepreneurial firms may emerge as
significant drivers of economic growth and wealth creation.

40 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
TYPOLOGY OF ECONOMIES BASED ON THREE
DIMENSIONS OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP
Type A: high prevalence of three types of entrepreneurial
activity (SLEA, MHEA and EEA)
Type B: high prevalence of medium/high job expectation
entrepreneurship (MHEA) and high prevalence of
entrepreneurial employee activity (EEA)
Type C: high prevalence of solo/low job expectation
entrepreneurship (SLEA) and high prevalence of
medium/high job expectation entrepreneurship (MHEA)
Type D: high prevalence of medium/high job expectation
entrepreneurship (MHEA) only
Type E: high prevalence of solo/low job expectation
entrepreneurship (SLEA) and high prevalence of
Entrepreneurial employee activity (EEA)
Type F: high prevalence of entrepreneurial employee
activity (EEA) Only
Type G: high prevalence of solo/low job expectation
entrepreneurship (SLEA) only Type H: low prevalence of
three types of entrepreneurial activity (SLEA, MHEA and
EEA)

MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013 41
2011 GEM report
Entrepreneurial attitudes and perceptions reflect the degree to which individuals
in economies tend to appreciate entrepreneurship, both in terms of general
attitudes and in terms of self-perceptions: how many individuals recognize
business opportunities, how many believe they have the skills and knowledge to
exploit such opportunities and how many would refrain from exploiting such
opportunities through fear of failure?
Entrepreneurial activity measures the observed involvement of Individuals in
different phases of entrepreneurial activity. It also tracks the degree to which
entrepreneurial activities are driven By opportunity and/or necessity.
Discontinuations of entrepreneurial activity (and the reasons for doing so) are
also estimated from GEM adult population surveys.
Entrepreneurial aspirations are of key importance in addressing the (socio)
economic impact of entrepreneurial behavior. Entrepreneurs that expect to create
jobs, to be involved in international trade and/or to contribute to society by
offering new products and services are of particular interest.

MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013 42
ENTREPRENEURIAL ATTITUDES AND PERCEPTIONS IN THE GEM COUNTRIES
IN 2011 BY PHASE OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT (% OF POPULATION AGED 18
- 64)
MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013 43
Entrepreneurial Perceptions, Intentions and Societal
Attitudes in 54 Economies, 2011 some efficiency
driven countries
MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013 44
Entrepreneurial attitudes
Entrepreneurial attitudes are important because they express the general feelings of the population toward
entrepreneurs and entrepreneurship. Countries need people who can recognize valuable business opportunities,
and who perceive they have the required skills to exploit these opportunities. Moreover, if national attitudes
toward entrepreneurship are positive, this will generate cultural support, help, financial resources, and networking
benefits to those who are already entrepreneurs or want to start a business.
For example, the extent to which people think there are good opportunities for starting a business, or the degree
to which they attach high status to entrepreneurs, might be termed entrepreneurial attitudes.
Other relevant attitudes might include the level of risk that individuals might be willing to bear and individuals
perception of their own skills, knowledge, and experience in business creation.
Entrepreneurial attitudes can influence entrepreneurial activity but can also be influenced by entrepreneurial activity.
For example, the legitimacy of entrepreneurship in a society, as expressed in positive entrepreneurial attitudes,
can be influenced by whether people know anyone who has started a business recently. This can be a function of
both levels of entrepreneurial activity and social networking activity in the society. Individuals who know other
individuals who recently started a business may, through familiarity with the process, be more likely to see it as
legitimate.


45 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Entrepreneurial activity
- is best seen as a process rather than an event. That is why GEM measures
entrepreneurial intentions, nascent, new, and established business activity, and
business discontinuation activity. Examining multiple components of entrepreneurial
activity also allows us to explore differences among the entrepreneurial processes
across the three major phases of national economic development.

- can take on many forms, but one important aspect is the extent to which people in a
population are creating new business activity, both in absolute terms and relative
to other economic activities, such as business closure. Within the realm of new
business activity, different types of entrepreneurial activity can be distinguished.
For example, business creation may vary by industry sector, by the size of the founding
team, and by whether the new venture is legally independent of other businesses, and
in terms of founder demographics, such as gender, age, or education.

46 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
47 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Entrepreneurial Activity in 54 Economies by Phase of Economic
Development, 2011
MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013 48
Entrepreneurial aspiration
- reflects the qualitative nature of entrepreneurial activity. For example,
entrepreneurs differ in their aspirations to introduce new products, new production
processes, to engage with foreign markets, to develop a significant organization,
and to fund growth with external capital. These aspirations, if they are realized,
can significantly affect the economic impact of these entrepreneurial activities.
- Product and process innovation, internationalization, and ambition for high growth
are regarded as hallmarks of ambitious or high-aspiration entrepreneurship.

49 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Entrepreneurial Framework Conditions
The GEM model maintains that, at the national level, different
framework conditions apply to established business activity and to new
business activity.
The relevant national conditions for factor-driven economic activity and
efficiency-driven economic activity are adopted from the Global
Competitiveness Report (GCR).
With respect to innovation-driven economic activity, the GEM model
contributes to the GCR perspective on economic development by
identifying framework conditions that are specific to innovation and
entrepreneurship.
- it is the entrepreneurial mechanism that turns innovation into economic
output. A lack of entrepreneurship can therefore be seen as a bottleneck
for innovation-driven countries in achieving their growth ambitions.

50 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Global Entrepreneurship Index (GEI)
combining three sub-indicators dealing with entrepreneurial
attitudes, activity and aspiration results in an overall index
for entrepreneurship
For national and regional policy makers it is possible to
track which components score relatively poorly, and which
components appear relatively healthy. To this end, a policy
tool has been developed which provides an at a glance
picture of the state of entrepreneurship in a country or region

51 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Entrepreneurial attitudes and perceptions
As people see more and more successful entrepreneurs in their area or in the media, this may enhance
their perception of their own capabilities without enhancing actual capabilities. This effect may
be stronger when the economic climate is favorable. Furthermore, there may be demographic
differences in (perceived) entrepreneurial capabilities for historical socio-economic or cultural
reasons.
Policy programs may explicitly target groups exhibiting low shares of perceived capabilities as well
as low shares of actual capabilities. Thus, several distinct national conditions may affect
perceived capabilities directly and indirectly.
If an individual exhibits positive perceptions toward entrepreneurship, it is by no means certain that
he or she will actually get involved in entrepreneurial activity. There are several assessments to
be made, which may or may not be conscious. First, there is the assessment of opportunity
costs, which involves comparing the expected returns of entrepreneurship to the expected returns
of an alternative occupationx. The most common alternative is being employed. Being
employed may be a more attractive option to many, especially in countries where employment
opportunities are sparse and entrepreneurial activities are generally not very rewarding.
Then, there is a risk-reward assessment: Even if the expected returns from entrepreneurship are
considerably higher than the best alternative, the (perceived) risks involved may be too high for a
person who is thinking about starting a business. An individuals risk-avoidance preference may
be a significant factor in the transition from potential (or latent) entrepreneurship to
entrepreneurial activity. At the same time, the individual may also be influenced by demographic
characteristics such as age, gender, origin, or ethnicity and also by institutions. For instance,
bankruptcy legislation may impact individuals attitudes. Older people might include their
health and the specifics of the health care system in the risk-reward assessment, while
immigrants might perceive fewer alternative options for earning a living.
52 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Fear of failure Would Prevent you from Starting a business:
Prevalence rates for those who Perceive new business opportunities and
Total Working age Population, GEM 2009


53 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
3 indicators measuring national attitudes to
entrepreneurship
The first one assesses the percentage of inhabitants who feel that in their country,
starting a new business is considered a desirable career choice. As economies develop,
more employment opportunities open up.
The second indicator describes how the inhabitants feel about entrepreneurs that are
successful: Do they receive a high status or are they generally not seen as role models within
the society? On average, most people (close to three-quarters of working age adults) feel that
successful entrepreneurs have high status. Even though overall there is a mildly positive
correlation between these two measures, they do not always match. In some countries,
perception of new business creation as a good career choice is accompanied with low status
for successful entrepreneurs. This is the case for Croatia and the Kingdom of Tonga. Finland
displays the reverse results: Here successful entrepreneurs receive high status but a minority
of people would agree that starting a new business is seen as a good career choice.
The third indicator relates to the popularity of entrepreneurship and asks for respondents
opinions on the media coverage for new businesses in the country. In some countries,
deliberate media campaigns are underway to promote entrepreneurship, while in others, there
appears to be little media activity. Among innovation-driven countries, Belgium and
Denmark scored low here in 2009, while Finland, Norway and the United Arab Emirates
scored high.

54 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Entrepreneurial activity
One of the principal measures is of early stage entrepreneurial activity, or TEA - the proportion of
people aged 18-64 who are involved in entrepreneurial activity as a nascent entrepreneur or as an
owner-manager of a new business.
The average pattern for the three country groups is of a decline in overall levels of early-stage entrepreneurial
activity with increasing economic development, and relatively low levels of necessity entrepreneurship in
innovation-driven countries. However, there are large variations in entrepreneurial activity within the
groups, since each country has a unique set of economic and social conditions which can affect
entrepreneurial activity.
Among efficiency-driven economies, Latin American countries have early-stage entrepreneurial activity rates
that are noticeably higher than countries from Eastern Europe. The ratio of TEA to established business
owners also decreases with increasing economic development. This reflects the reduction in the rate of new
business owners to discontinuances, which is particularly noticeable in innovation-driven economies.
Each respondent who had discontinued a business in the previous 12 months was asked to give the main reason
for doing so.
Financial problems were cited as the reason for quitting the business by no more than 55% of all respondents;
they were cited more often by respondents in the factor and efficiency-driven economies (50% and 60%,
respectively) than innovation-driven countries (about 40%).
The business itself not being profitable was the most reported financial problem.
Problems with raising finance were considerably lower in innovation driven countries where the Entrepreneurial
Framework Condition Entrepreneurial Finance is generally more developed. The opportunity to sell
and in particular retirement, were mentioned more often in innovation-driven countries as the most
important reason to discontinue the business. Personal reasons caused around 20 to 30% of all
discontinuations.
55 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Expressed reasons behind discontinuing businesses, by
Country Group, GEM 2009
56 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Entrepreneurial activity in the 54 GEM Countries in 2009
57 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Early-Stage Entrepreneurial activity (TEA) for 54 nations in 2011,
by Phase of Economic development, Showing 95 % Confidence
intervals
58 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
NECESSITY- AND OPPORTUNITYDRIVEN
MOTIVES
MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013 59
Growth Expectations in 53 Economies,7
Organized by Phase of Economic Development,
20092011
MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013 60
Percentage of Total Early-Stage Entrepreneurs (TEA)
With Innovative Products in 54 Economies, 2011
MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013 61
Early-Stage Entrepreneurial activity rates and per
Capita GDP, 2009
62 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
Early-Stage Entrepreneurial activity rates and per
Capita GDP, 2009
In countries with low levels of per Capita income the national economy is characterized by the
prevalence of many very small businesses. As per capita income increases, industrialization and
economies of scale allow larger and established firms to satisfy the increasing demand of growing
markets and to increase their relative role in the economy. An important factor for achieving
growth is the presence of macro economic and political stability, which is reflected by the
development of strong institutions, from commonly accepted norms of behavior to transparent and
respected legal and regulatory systems. The increase in the role of large firms may be
accompanied by a reduction in the number of new businesses, as a growing number of people find
stable employment in large industrial plants. Thus, for countries with low levels of per capita
income, a decrease in prevalence rates of early stage entrepreneurial activity may be a good sign
of sustainability, especially if this is accompanied by economic growth and political stability.
Toward the right-hand side of the figure, the role played by the entrepreneurial sector may
increase because more individuals can access the resources necessary to start their own business
in knowledge-intensive environments with abundant opportunities.
!!! entrepreneurship rates are not just a function of differences in economic development (or
welfare) but also other factors.
Examples of such factors might include population growth, which can stimulate demand, and the stock
of existing business owner managers, who serve as role models and who are more likely to start a
business than other individuals. Eastern European countries, with falling populations and a low
stock of business owner-managers as a legacy of communism, are clustered below the trend line,
while Latin American countries, with healthy population growth rates and a larger stock of
business owners, tend to appear above the trend line.
63 MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013
GEM 2011 Romania
MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013 64
GEM 2011 Romania
MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013 65