Diego Lizana drlizana@ecodesarrollo.

cl
PARQUE ELICO

Ejercicio de Anlisis viabilidad econmica de un parque elico

CUIDADO: Todos los clculos estn realizados segn el sistema de retribucin ESPAOL
Parmetros
Parmetros generales
Tasa inters
Inflacin

Valor inicial
7.0%
2.5%

Parmetros del Proyecto

Tasa de Descuento

8%

Inversin
Inversin total ()
Propia (%)

Externa (%)

Perodo devolucin de la deuda (aos)

Perodo de amortizacin (depreciacin)(aos)

12,187,901
20%
2,437,580
80%
9,750,321
12
8

desarrollo.cl

mica de un parque elico

bucin ESPAOL

Caractersticas de la turbina
Modelo
Fabricante
Altura de buje (m)
Diametro del rotor (m)
N de aerogeneradores
Potencia mxima (Kw)
Potencia total (Mw)
Area de barrido (m2)
Densidad
Perfil de viento
Regulacin
Velocidad del rotor
Clase IEC
Nivel de ruido (dB(A))

Carctersticas del proyecto

G80 2000
Gamesa
78
80
5
2000
10
5026.56
1.09
0.12
Pitch
Variable
III B

Curva de potencia
Velocidad (m/s)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

Potencia (Kw)
0
0
0
0
77
177
328
538
814
1150
1500
1774
1921
1978
1994
1999
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
0
0
0
0
0

m de camino
m de zanja

UBICACIN EN EL TERRENO (Coorde

X
3805
3805
3813
3826
3855

5000
4900

4800
4700
4600
4500
4400
4300
4200
4100
4000
3900
3800
3600

arctersticas del proyecto

Ancho
1920 6 m
1760 0,8 m

fondo
1,2 m

BICACIN EN EL TERRENO (Coordenadas)

Y
3982
4237
4461
4666
4896

3700

3800

3900

4000

4000

Altura torre de medicin

Velocidad media
Desv.tpica
k
C

40
7.00
3.37
2.21
7.91

Altura buje
V. Media
Desv.tpica
k
C

78
7.58
3.37
2.41
8.56

W/m2 a altura de buje

30.00
25.00

W/m2

20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
0

10

15
m/s

20

25

30

Viento (m/s)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
TOTAL

Prob. 40 metros
0.00
0.023
0.050
0.077
0.098
0.112
0.116
0.112
0.102
0.086
0.069
0.052
0.037
0.025
0.016
0.010
0.006
0.003
0.002
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000

Prob. 78 metros
0.00
0.014
0.035
0.059
0.082
0.100
0.112
0.115
0.110
0.098
0.082
0.064
0.047
0.033
0.021
0.013
0.007
0.004
0.002
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000

W/m2 40 metros
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.49
3.93
7.58
12.03
16.46
19.76
20.65
18.48
14.32
9.98
6.45
3.92
2.26
1.23
0.63
0.31
0.14
0.06
0.03
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

140

W/m2 78 metros
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.25
3.53
7.28
12.27
17.74
22.38
24.43
22.69
18.11
12.89
8.44
5.15
2.94
1.57
0.78
0.37
0.16
0.06
0.02
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

162

Producin del parque en funcin de la curva de potencia y el viento

Alturas
Velocidad media
k-factor
C-factor
Nivel de energa [W/m2]

Measured
40 metros
7.00
2.21
7.91
139.7

Prdidas elctricas ......................

Perdidas estelas del parque ........
Prdidas disponibilidad..................
Otras prdidas ...............................
Total prdidas ................................

Velocidad
[m/s]

Curva de
potencia
[kW]

Distribucin
de viento
[hr/yr]

0
0
0
1
0
118
2
0
308
3
0
519
4
77
719
5
177
880
6
328
978
7
538
1,004
8
814
960
9
1,150
857
10
1,500
717
11
1,774
563
12
1,921
415
13
1,978
287
14
1,994
186
15
1,999
113
16
2,000
65
17
2,000
35
18
2,000
17
19
2,000
8
20
2,000
4
21
2,000
1
22
2,000
1
23
2,000
0
24
2,000
0
25
2,000
0
26
0
0
27
0
0
28
0
0
29
0
0
30
0
0
Produccin anual bruta [MWh/yr wtg]

Hub
78 metros
7.58
2.41
8.56
162.1

3.0%
2.0%
3.0%
1.0%
9.0%

[MWh/yr]

0
0
0
0
55
156
321
540
781
986
1076
999
797
568
372
227
129
69
35
16
7
3
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,137

Increase
8%
8%

Produccin anual bruta [MWh/yr ]

Produccin anual neta[MWh/yr]
Horas equivalentes

35,686
32,475
3247

Datos tcnicos instalacin

Produccin bruta (MWh/ao)
Produccin a la red (MWh/ao)
Valor electricidad
TMR
Precio promedio pool 2005
Garanta de potencia

Ingreso segn tipo de tarifa

TIPO DE TARIFA
AO
Ingresos totales + inflacin

35,686 MWh/ao
32,475 MWh/ao
60.0 /MWh
57.0 /MWh
4.8 /MWh

MERCADO LIBRE
0

1
2
3,055,689 3,132,081

INGRESO POR TARIFA REGULADA

AO
TMR + inflacin
% TMR
Total Ingresos + inflacin

Retribucin=%TMR+/-Reactiva-Desvos
0
1
2
61.5000
63.04
90%
90%
1,797,464 1,842,401

INGRESO POR MERCADO ELCTRICO

AO
Total Ingresos
Total ingresos + inflacin

Retribucin = Precio Pool +Garanta de potencia+Prima*+Incentivos*+/-Reactiva-D

0
1
2
2,981,160 2,981,160
3,055,689 3,132,081

Tipo

tarifa

Prima

Potencias <5MW

90% TMR los 15 primeros aos y 80% TMR

a partir de entonces

40.00%

Potencias >5MW

90% TMR los 5 primeros aos, 85% TMR

los 10 siguientes y 80% a partir de entonces

0.4

B2.2

3
3,210,383

4
3,290,643

5
3,372,909

6
3,457,231

* No se consider cargos o abonos por reactiva ni desvos

3
4
5
6
64.61
66.23
67.88
69.58
90%
90%
90%
85%
1,888,461
1,935,672
1,984,064
1,920,684

nta de potencia+Prima*+Incentivos*+/-Reactiva-Desvos
3
4
5
2,981,160
2,981,160
2,981,160
3,210,383
3,290,643
3,372,909

6
2,981,160
3,457,231

7
3,543,662

8
3,632,254

9
3,723,060

71.32
85%
1,968,701

73.10
85%
2,017,919

74.93
85%
2,068,367

7
2,981,160
3,543,662

8
2,981,160
3,632,254

9
2,981,160
3,723,060

Incentivo
10.00%

0.1

10
3,816,136

10

11
3,911,540

11

12
4,009,328

12

13
4,109,562

13

14
4,212,301

14

15
4,317,608

15

76.81
85%
2,120,076

78.73
85%
2,173,078

80.69
85%
2,227,405

82.71
85%
2,283,090

84.78
85%
2,340,167

86.90
85%
2,398,671

10
2,981,160
3,816,136

11
2,981,160
3,911,540

12
2,981,160
4,009,328

13
2,981,160
4,109,562

14
2,981,160
4,212,301

15
2,981,160
4,317,608

16
4,425,548

16

17
4,536,187

17

18
4,649,592

18

19
4,765,832

19

20
4,884,977

20

89.07
85%
2,458,638

91.30
85%
2,520,104

93.58
85%
2,583,107

95.92
85%
2,647,684

98.32
85%
2,713,876

16
2,981,160
4,425,548

17
2,981,160
4,536,187

18
2,981,160
4,649,592

19
2,981,160
4,765,832

20
2,981,160
4,884,977

COSTOS SUPUESTOS
Operacin y mantenimiento
Seguros
Alquiler de terrenos
Gastos administrativos

AO

Costes previos a la construccin

Costes previos de evalucacin recurso
Costes de Proyecto
Subtotal previos
Costes de Ejecucin
Coste de camino (m)
Coste de zanja (m)
Costes de plataforma montaje
Costes de cimentacin
Costes de subestacin
Costes de transporte
Costes de grua
Precio de la turbina
Costos de conexin (MW)
Proteccin Ambiental
Subtotal ejecucin
Costes de Operacin
Alquiler terreno
Costes de Operacin y mantenimiento
Seguro por torre
Costos desmantelamiento
Total costos fijos
Total costos fijos+inflacin
COSTOS VARIABLES
Gastos administracin
TOTAL COSTOS

6
7
900
2250
0.5%

Valor unitario

/MWh <ao 10
/MWh >10
/Torre
/MW Instalados Ao
Facturacin anual

87,862
540,911

87,862
540,911
628,773

56
25
18,000
65,269
556,263
43,500
64,000
1,850,000
64,000
1,500

107,520
44,000
90,000
326,345
556,263
217,500
320,000
9,250,000
640,000
7,500
11,559,128

22,500
194,847
4,500
221,847
12,187,901

227,393

12,187,901

242,672

15,278

22,500
194,847
4,500

22,500
194,847
4,500

22,500
194,847
4,500

22,500
194,847
4,500

22,500
194,847
4,500

22,500
194,847
4,500

22,500
194,847
4,500

221,847

221,847

221,847

221,847

221,847

221,847

221,847

233,078

238,905

244,878

251,000

257,275

263,706

270,299

15,660

16,052

16,453

16,865

17,286

17,718

18,161

248,738

254,957

261,331

267,864

274,561

281,425

288,460

10

11

12

13

14

15

22,500
194,847
4,500

22,500
194,847
4,500

22,500
227,322
4,500

22,500
227,322
4,500

22,500
227,322
4,500

22,500
227,322
4,500

22,500
227,322
4,500

221,847

221,847

254,322

254,322

254,322

254,322

254,322

277,057

283,983

291,083

298,360

305,819

313,464

321,301

18,615

19,081

19,558

20,047

20,548

21,062

21,588

295,672

303,064

310,640

318,406

326,366

334,526

342,889

16

17

18

19

20

22,500
227,322
4,500

22,500
227,322
4,500

22,500
227,322
4,500

22,500
227,322
4,500

22,500
227,322
4,500

254,322

254,322

254,322

254,322

700,000
954,322

329,333

337,567

346,006

354,656

1,081,022

22,128

22,681

23,248

23,829

24,425

351,461

360,247

369,254

378,485

1,105,447

AO
1
2
3=1-2

Ingresos
Costes
BENEFICIO BRUTO

3,055,689
242,672
2,813,017

3,132,081
248,738
2,883,342

-1,523,488
0
1,289,529

-1,523,488
0
1,359,855

682,522
607,007

625,646
734,209

212,452
394,555

256,973
477,236

1,523,488

1,523,488

5
6=3-4+5

Amortizacin
Subvenciones
BAIT

7
8=6-7

Intereses
BAT

9
10=8-9

Impuestos
BENEFICIO NETO

11

Amortizacin
Valor residual
Desembolso

2,437,580

812,527

812,527

14=10+11+12-13 CASH-FLOW

-2,437,580

1,105,515

1,188,197

12
13

35%

VAN ()
13,897,583

TIR
52%

ANLISIS DE VIABILIDAD DE PROYECTOS

3

3,210,383
254,957
2,955,426

3,290,643
261,331
3,029,312

3,372,909
267,864
3,105,044

3,457,231
274,561
3,182,671

3,543,662
281,425
3,262,237

3,632,254
288,460
3,343,793

3,723,060
295,672
3,427,388

-1,523,488
0
1,431,938

-1,523,488
0
1,505,824

-1,523,488
0
1,581,557

-1,523,488
0
1,659,183

-1,523,488
0
1,738,750

-1,523,488
0
1,820,306

0
3,427,388

568,769
863,170

511,892
993,932

455,015
1,126,542

398,138
1,261,045

341,261
1,397,488

284,384
1,535,921

227,507
3,199,881

302,109
561,060

347,876
646,056

394,290
732,252

441,366
819,679

489,121
908,368

537,572
998,349

1,119,958
2,079,922

1,523,488

1,523,488

1,523,488

1,523,488

1,523,488

1,523,488

812,527

812,527

812,527

812,527

812,527

812,527

812,527

1,272,021

1,357,017

1,443,213

1,530,640

1,619,328

1,709,310

1,267,396

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

3,816,136
303,064
3,513,073

3,911,540
310,640
3,600,900

4,009,328
318,406
3,690,922

4,109,562
326,366
3,783,195

4,212,301
334,526
3,877,775

4,317,608
342,889
3,974,719

4,425,548
351,461
4,074,087

0
3,513,073

0
3,600,900

0
3,690,922

0
3,783,195

0
3,877,775

0
3,974,719

0
4,074,087

170,631
3,342,442

113,754
3,487,146

56,877
3,634,045

3,783,195

3,877,775

3,974,719

4,074,087

1,169,855
2,172,587

1,220,501
2,266,645

1,271,916
2,362,129

1,324,118
2,459,077

1,357,221
2,520,554

1,391,152
2,583,568

1,425,931
2,648,157

812,527

812,527

812,527

1,360,061

1,454,118

1,549,603

2,459,077

2,520,554

2,583,568

2,648,157

17

18

19

20

4,536,187
360,247
4,175,940

4,649,592
369,254
4,280,338

4,765,832
378,485
4,387,347

4,884,977
1,105,447
3,779,530

0
4,175,940

0
4,280,338

0
4,387,347

0
3,779,530

4,175,940

4,280,338

4,387,347

3,779,530

1,461,579
2,714,361

1,498,118
2,782,220

1,535,571
2,851,775

1,322,836
2,456,695

2,714,361

2,782,220

2,851,775

2,456,695

Analisis de sensibilidad
ANLISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD

TIR
152%
86%
52%
39%
29%
22%
20%

VAN
14,190,865
14,093,104
13,897,583
13,702,062
13,311,020
12,724,457
12,333,416

160%

140%
120%
100%
TIR

Propio/Externo
5/95
10/90
20/80
30/70
50/50
80/20
100/0

80%
60%
40%

20%
0%

Inters anual
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
10.0%

TIR
60%
56%
52%
46%

VAN
15,076,377
14,486,980
13,897,583
13,013,489

70%

60%

76.67
TIR

50%
40%

30%
20%
10%

0%

TIR
29.00%
34.00%
47.00%
52%
58.00%

VAN
13,056,512
13,298,507
13,716,769
13,897,583
14,212,087

70%
60%
50%

TIR

Pago deuda (aos)

4
6
10
12
16

40%

30%
20%

Page 91

Analisis de sensibilidad

20%
10%
0%

VAN
21,634,410
17,237,898
13,897,583
11,325,479
9,318,687
7,732,719
35.74

25,000,000
20,000,000

64.26

VAN ( )

Tasa de descuento
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%

15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0

Aos amortizacin
8
12
16
20

TIR
52%
46.00%
43.00%
41.00%

VAN
13,897,583
13,512,285
13,193,223
12,927,452

60%

50%

TIR

40%
30%

20%
10%

0%

Inflacin

TIR
1

48%

VAN
11,342,412
70%

Page 92

Analisis de sensibilidad
52%
55%
59%
63%

13,897,583
16,915,912
21,826,948
28,012,354

70%
60%

50%
TIR

2.5
4
6
8

40%
30%

20%
10%
0%

Page 93

Analisis de sensibilidad

Variacin financiamiento propio v/s TIR y VAN

14,500,000

14,000,000

13,000,000

12,500,000

VAN ()

13,500,000

12,000,000

11,500,000
11,000,000
5/95

10/90

20/80

30/70

50/50

80/20

100/0

Propio/externo
TIR

VAN

Variacin del inters anual v/s TIR y VAN

15,500,000
15,000,000

14,000,000
13,500,000
13,000,000

VAN ()

14,500,000

12,500,000

12,000,000
11,500,000
5.0%

7.0%

10.0%

Inters anual
TIR

VAN

Variacin plazo de pago deuda v/s TIR y VAN

14,400,000
14,200,000
14,000,000
13,800,000
13,600,000
13,400,000
13,200,000
13,000,000
12,800,000

Page 94

VAN ()

3.0%

Analisis de sensibilidad

10

12

13,000,000
12,800,000
12,600,000
12,400,000

16

Aos
TIR

VAN

Variacin de la tasa de descuento v/s TIR y VAN

25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Aos
VAN

Variacin periodo de amortizacin v/s TIR y VAN

14,000,000
13,800,000

13,400,000
13,200,000

13,000,000
12,800,000
12,600,000

12,400,000
8

12

16

20

Aos
TIR

VAN

Variacin de la inflacin de amortizacin v/s TIR y VAN

30,000,000

Page 95

VAN ()

13,600,000

Analisis de sensibilidad
30,000,000

25,000,000

15,000,000
10,000,000

5,000,000
0
1

2.5

Aos
Series1

Series2

Page 96

VAN ()

20,000,000