Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 19

(2013) 489498
Contents lists available at Si!erse Siene"iret
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
#ournal $o%e&age' www(el sevier(o%)loate)rser
Eono%i i%&ats o* installing solar &ower &lants in nort$ern C$ile
+eli&e del Sol, En-o Sau%a
n
.ndustrial and Syste%s Engineering "e&art%ent, /onti0ia 1niversidad Catolia de C$ile,
2v( !iun3a 4a5enna 4860, 7820436 4aul, Santiago, C$ile
a r t i l e i n * o
2rtile $istory'
Reeived 1
Se&te%ber 2011
Reeived in revised
*or%
8 9ove%ber 2012
2e&ted 14
9ove%ber 2012
2vailable online 17
"ee%ber 2012
:eywords'
Solar
eono%
is
Solar
energy
C$ile
Eono%etri analysis
Solar
t$er%al
Solar
&$otovol
tai
Solar
si%ulation
a

b

s

t

r

a

t

C$ile $as one o* t$e
best worldwide
onditions *or t$e
generation o*
eletrial energy *ro%
solar resoures, $aving
an annual average
"iret 9or%al
.rradiation ("9.) o*
910 5;$)%
2
)day(
4any i%&ortant
astrono%ial
observatories $ave
been installed in t$e
nort$ o* C$ile beause
o* t$e low nu%ber o*
loudy days and t$e
$ig$ s5y learness inde<( 2lso, in t$e nort$ o* C$ile, t$ere
are %any %ining o%&anies w$o de%and large a%ounts o*
load *or t$eir o&eration( =$ey urrently use eletriity
&rovided *ro% *ossil *uels t$er%oeletri &lants (99> o* t$e
eletrial generation o* t$e 9ort$ern .nteronneted /ower
Syste% is t$er%oeletri) t$at are sub#et to *uel?&rie
volatilities and $ave large global and loal i%&ats on t$e
environ%ent(
=$e wor5 re&orted in t$is &a&er *ouses on identi*ying a
li%ited nu%ber o* variables, w$i$ e<&lain t$e variations on
t$e invest%ent ost o* solar &ower &lants, and use t$is
in*or%ation to assess t$e eono%i bene0ts o* t$e
installation o* t$is ty&e o* &lants in t$e nort$ o* C$ile( .n
&artiular, %ulti&le linear regressions were *or%ulated,
wit$ in*or%ation about 48 t$er%al and 37 &$otovoltai
e<isting and &ro#eted solar &lants, to e<&lain t$e variations
a%ong t$e invest%ent ost o* t$e di**erent &ro#ets( ;e
deter%ine a li%ited nu%ber o* variables t$at ade@uately
e<&lain t$e variations o* t$e invest%ent ost o* solar energy
&ower &lants( 1sing t$ese results, 11 te$nologies were
si%ulated in *our loations to assess t$e eono%i i%&at
o* t$ese &ro#ets in ter%s o* t$e $ange indued in t$e
%arginal ost o* t$e syste% and t$e net &resent value o* t$e
44 &ro#ets( ;e s$ow t$at installing a solar &ower &lant in
t$e nort$ o* C$ile will not bring net eono%i bene0ts *or
t$e &ower setor unless urrent onditions on *ators su$
as arbon bond &ries, labor rate, or solar?&lant &art &ries
$ange( =$e brea5 even a&ital ost and energy ost *or a
Stirling "is$ solar &lant in Cala%a are 2(33 %illions o*
1S")4; and 9(3 ents)5;$, res&etively(
A 2012 Elsevier Btd( 2ll
rig$ts reserved(
Contents
1( .ntrodution
( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (
( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( 490
2( Solar energy
( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (
( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( 490
3( Eono%etri analysis ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (
( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( 491
3(1( Solar t$er%al regression %odel
( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (
491
3(2( Solar &$otovoltai regression %odel ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (
( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( 491
4( C$ilean nort$ern interonneted &ower syste% si%ulation ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (
( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( 492
4(1( S.9C si%ulation outo%e ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (
( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( 493
4(2( Ele%ents *or t$e eono%i evaluation
( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( 493
4(2(1( Carbon redits ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (
( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( 493
4(2(2( .no%e *ro% energy generation ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (
( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( 493
4(2(3( .no%e *ro% &ower a&aity &ay%ents
( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( 493
4(2(4( .nvest%ent osts ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (
( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( 498
4(2(8( D&erational and %aintenane osts(
( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( 496
4(3( Eono%i evaluation results ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (
( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( 496
8( Conlusions ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (
( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( 497
25nowledg%ents ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (
( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( 498
Re*erenes ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( (
( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( 498
n
Corres&onding aut$or( =el(' E 86 2 384 4272F *a<' E 86 2 882 1608(
E?%ail address' esau%aGing(&u(l (E( Sau%a)(
1364?0321)H ? see *ront %atter A
2012 Elsevier Btd( 2ll rig$ts
reserved(
$t t&'))d<(doi(org)10(1016)#(rser(201
2(11(038
+( del Sol, E( Sau%a ) Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 19 (2013) 489498
8
2s %entioned earlier, solar &ower &lants o* t$ese te$nologies
=able 1
1( .ntrodution
C$ile $as one o* t$e best worldwide
onditions *or t$e generation o* eletrial
energy *ro% solar resoures, $aving an
annual average "iret 9or%al .rradiation
("9.) o* 910 5;$)%
2
) day I1J( 4any
i%&ortant astrono%ial observatories $ave
been installed in t$e nort$ o* C$ile
beause o* t$e low nu%ber o* loudy days
and t$e $ig$ s5y learness inde<, w$i$ is
tradued into $ig$ a%ount o* solar radiation
reeived and %ore &otential o* generation o*
eletri energy t$an ot$er loations(
4oreover, in t$e nort$ o* C$ile, t$ere are
%any %ining o%&anies w$o de%and
large a%ounts o* load *or t$eir
o&eration( =$ey urrently use eletriity
&rovided *ro% *ossil *uels t$er%oeletri
&lants (99> o* t$e eletrial generation o*
t$e 9ort$ern .nteron? neted /ower
Syste% is t$er%oeletri) t$at are sub#et
to *uel?&rie volatilities and $ave large
global and loal i%&ats on t$e environ?
%ent( Dn t$e ot$er $and, environ%ental
regulations are getting striter and
usto%ers are de%anding o%&anies to
%a5e a redution on green$ouse gas (CKC)
e%issions and %itigating t$eir arbon
*oot&rints(
=$ere is strong evidene t$at solar
te$nologies an $ave a %a#or i%&at on
t$e *uture energy %i< o* ountries wit$ a
$ig$ solar resoure I2J( Kowever, t$e
urrent literature $as li%ited a&&liability
*or C$ilean energy generation o%&anies
beause o* t$e unonsiousness o* t$e
variables t$at e<&lain t$e ost struture
assoiated to a solar &ower &lant installed in
C$ile( 9onet$eless, it is interesting to
analy-e t$e eono%i i%&at *or t$e
eletriity su&&ly setor o* installing solar
&ower &lants in 9ort$ern C$ile, in ter%s o*
t$e net &resent value o* t$e solar &ro#ets
and t$e $ange indued in t$e %arginal ost
o* t$e syste%(
+or di**erent a&&liations, resear$ers
$ave used %ultivariate regression %odels to
$arateri-e ost *untions( +or instanes, in
I3J, t$e aut$ors deter%ine t$e
onstrution ost o* a nulear &ower &lant
using %ultivariate regression %odels,
w$ile, in I4J, t$e aut$ors use %ultivariate
regression %odels *or deter%ining t$e 1S
roadwor5 onstrution ontrat &rie(
Regression %odels are also used to
alulate t$e $os&ital osts in di**erent
ountries, as a *untion o* t$eir si-e and ty&e
(&rivate or &ubli), in I8J, and to esti%ate
air&ortsL ost *untions in I6J(
.nvest%ent osts $ave also been
esti%ated using ot$er %odels( .n I7J, t$e
aut$ors use a botto%?u& a&&roa$,
based on urrent te$nologies and
e<&eted %ar5et onditions *or 2012
2017, to esti%ate t$e installation ost o*
an o**?s$ore wind &ower &lant in t$e 1S(
.n C$ile, so%e aut$ors I810J $ave
studied di**erent as&ets related wit$ t$e
%easure%ent o* t$e solar energy
availability( =$ere are also so%e studies
I11,12J about t$e te$nial *easibility o*
installing solar t$er%al &ower &lants in
t$e nort$ o* t$e ountry and a study I13J
esti%ating t$e leveli-ed energy osts *or
CS/ &ower &lants in nort$ern C$ile( =$ese
studies *ous %ainly on t$e resoure
%easure%ent and t$e te$nial $allenges(
"i**erently, t$e &resent wor5 *ouses on t$e
eono%i i%&ats o* installing solar
t$er%al and solar &$otovoltai &ower
&lants(
.n ot$er ountries, several ost studies
$ave been &er*or%ed( .n I14J, t$e solar
&$otovoltai leveli-ed eletriity ost is
esti%ated( =$e ris5 assoiated to solar &ower
invest%ents are studied in I18J, in t$e
onte<t o* 9ort$ 2*ria( .n t$e sa%e onte<t
6
+( del Sol, E( Sau%a ) Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 19 (2013) 489498
o* 9ort$ 2*ria, t$e ost o* reduing water
use o* onentrating solar &ower is analy-ed
in I16J( 2n eono%i analysis o* &ower
generation *ro% &araboli troug$ solar
t$er%al &lants in Cy&rus is &er*or%ed in
I17J( =$e te$nology develo&%ent, ost
develo&%ent and li*e yle inventories *or
onentrated solar &ower in 2*ria and
Euro&e are assessed in I18J( .n I19J, t$e
aut$ors study t$e in0uene on eletriity
ost o* solar a&aity *ators and energy
storage( =$e interation between %ar5et
eono%is and &oliy, in t$e onte<t o*
$ig$ &enetration o* solar energy, is studied
in I20J(
Soial bene0ts o* solar &ower &lants $ave
been studied in I21,22J, w$ere t$e aut$ors
&er*or% ost?bene0t analyses o* installing a
/! &lant in t$e =ur5is$ &ower syste%( =$ey
*ound t$at t$is installation is not
eono%ially *easible beause o* its $ig$
invest%ent ost(
=$is &a&er $as two %ain ontributions( 2
0rst ontribution is to identi*y t$e variables
(su$ as te$nology, installed a&aity, area,
generation, onstrution year, a%ong
ot$ers) t$at e<&lain t$e variations on t$e
invest%ent osts o* solar energy &ower
&lants( =$e seond ontribution o* t$e &a&er
is t$e assess%ent o* t$e eono%i i%&at
t$at will ause t$e installation o* a solar
&ower &lant in t$e 9ort$ern
.nteronneted /ower Syste% o* C$ile
(S.9C)(
=$e rest o* t$e &a&er is organi-ed as
*ollows( Setion 2 gives a brie* overview o*
solar &ower generation te$nologies(
Setion 3 &rovides t$e eono%etri
analysis %ade to $arateri-e t$e ost
struture assoiated to a solar &ower &lant
installed in C$ile( Setion 4 &resents t$e
si%ulations o* t$e 9ort$ern .nteronneted
/ower Syste% o* C$ile &er*or%ed
onsidering t$e installation o* new solar
&ower &lants( Setion 8 onludes t$e
&a&er(
2( Solar energy
Solar energy is obtained *ro% radiant lig$t
and $eat *ro% t$e Sun( .n t$e nort$ o* C$ile,
solar radiation is very $ig$ o%&ared to
ot$er &laes o* t$e world( Kowever, t$e
solar radiation levels still vary aross
seasons( +ig( 1 s$ows t$e %ont$ly average
global $ori-ontal irradiation (CK.) *or
Cala%a in nort$ern C$ile, w$ere t$e
i%&ats o* installing solar &ower &lants are
studied in t$is wor5(
Solar te$nologies trans*or% t$e solar
+( del Sol, E( Sau%a ) Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 19 (2013) 489498
7
2s %entioned earlier, solar &ower &lants o* t$ese te$nologies
=able 1
radiation in eletri energy and an be
grou&ed in two *a%ilies' =$er%al and
/$oto? voltai( Solar t$er%al te$nologies
use irradiation as a soure o* $eat to raise
t$e te%&erature o* a 0uid( =o %ini%i-e t$e
land usage and %a<i%i-e t$e e*0ieny, t$e
sunlig$t is onentrated onto reeivers(
Eletri energy an be generated via a
stea% turbine or a $eat engine onneted
to a generator( Solar /$oto? voltai
te$nologies onvert solar radiation into
diret urrent due to t$e &$otovoltai
e**et(
.n t$is artile, t$ree solar t$er%al
te$nologies are onsidered' &araboli
troug$, solar &ower tower (bot$ o* w$i$
an inlude energy storage wit$ %olten salt
tan5s) and Stirling dis$ te$nology( 2s well,
t$ree solar &$otovoltai te$nologies are
onsidered' %ono? rystalline silion and
&olyrystalline silion (bot$ o* w$i$ ould
inlude di**erent tra5ing o&tions) and +irst
Solar Cad%iu% =ell? uride (Cd=e) =$in?0l%(
11.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Sept Oct Nov Dec
Average Direct Normal Irradiation
(kWh/m
2
day)
+ig( 1( 2verage Clobal Kori-ontal
.rradiation ("9.) *or Cala%a, C$ile(
Soure' I1J(
are studied to deter%ine an ade@uate
invest%ent ost *untion to later
deter%ine t$e eono%i i%&at o* solar
&lants loated in
/ara%eter esti%ates *or t$er%al
invest%ent ost regression %odel(
!ariables Coe*0ient Std( Err
t / 4 9t9 Meta
C$ile and si%ulate t$ese &lants in t$e 9ort$ern
.nteronneted
/ower Syste% o* C$ile(
Ca&aity
Storage Ca&aity
2rea
3( Eono%etri analysis
"u%%y Stirling
"u%%y =ower
"u%%y S&ain
"ata *ro% 48 t$er%al solar &lants and 37 &$otovoltai solar
"u%%y 1S2
&ar5s were used *or deter%ining an ade@uate invest%ent ost Constant
*untion *or t$e di**erent te$nologies o* solar &ower generation(
Several variables were $osen and studied to deter%ine t$eir
signi0ane on t$e invest%ent ost o* t$e &ower &lants( Sine
t$e variables t$at %ostly
e<&lain t$e invest%ent ost
o* t$er%al
and &$otovoltai &ower
&lants are di**erent, t$e
eono%etri analysis was
se&arated in two regression
%odels' t$er%al and
&$otovoltai(
+ro% t$e total o* 48
t$er%al solar &lants, 18 are
urrently in o&eration, 14 are
under onstrution, and 16
are &ro&osed &ro#ets( 2ll t$e
&$otovoltai solar &ar5s
studied are urrently in
o&eration wit$ t$e only
e<e&tion o* Cala%a Solar
Dne, w$i$ is a &ro&osed
&ro#et in C$ile(
3
(
1
(

S
o
l
a
r

t
$
e
r
%
a
l

r
e
g
r
e
s
s
i
o
n

%
o
d
e
l
=$e studied variables (t$e
ones *or w$i$ data were
olleted) o* t$e t$er%al
solar &lants are total
installed ost, te$nology,
&ower a&aity, storage
a&aity, installed ountry,
year o* o%? %issioning,
%irror solar 0eld,
eletriity generation,
a&aity *ator, total &lant
area, and radiation(
1sing di**erent
o%binations o* t$ese
variables, several %ulti?
variable linear regressions
were &er*or%ed to
deter%ine t$e %ain
e<&lanatory variables (i(e(,
t$e ones wit$ t$e $ig$est
statistial signi0ane
levels) and t$e oe*0ients
t$at deter%ine t$e total
invest%ent or installed ost
o* a solar &ower &lant wit$
t$e best 0t( ;e *ound t$at
t$e %ain e<&lanatory
variables *or t$e invest?
%ent ost o* t$er%al solar
&ower &lants are a&aity,
te$nology, total area,
storage a&aity and
installed ountry( 1sing
t$ese variables, we
*or%ulate a %ultivariable
linear regression wit$ an R?
S@uared o* 98(2>, w$i$ is
s$own in (1)(
.nvest
%ent
ost N
b
0
E
b
1
Ca&
aity
E b
2
2rea
E b
3
StorageO
Ca&aity
E
"
=e$nology
E
"
Country
P1Q
w$ere b
0
N
84(7803, b
1
N
2(9487, b
2
N 0(277,
b
3
N 0(2661, and
"
=e$nol
ogy
and
"
Country
are
given as
*ollows'
&resene o* t$e in0
uene o* t$e
te$nology and t$e
ountry in t$e
invest%ent ost(
=able 1 s$ows
t$e esti%ated
&ara%eters o* t$e
%ulti&le?
regression %odel(
=$e 0rst olu%n
orres&onds to t$e
$osen
inde&endent
variables *or
&rediting t$e
installed ost o*
t$e solar &lant( =$e
*ollowing olu%ns
s$ow t$e oe*0
ient o* t$e
regression e@uation
(*or t$ose
variables)F t$e
standard errors
assoiated wit$ t$e
oe*0ientsF t$e t?
statistis used in
testing w$et$er a
given oe*0ient is
signi0antly
di**erent *ro% -ero
or notF t$e two?
tailed &?values (/
49t9) used in
testing t$e null
$y&ot$esis t$at t$e
oe*0ient is 0,
using an al&$a o*
0(08F and t$e
standardi-ed oe*0
ients (Meta) t$at
%easure t$e
$ange o* t$e
de&endent
variables (in
standard devia?
tion) &rodued by a
unitary $ange in
t$e inde&endent
variable (in
standard
deviation),
%aintaining t$e
rest o* t$e variables
onstant( =$ese
Meta oe*0ients
allow us to
identi*y w$i$
inde&endent
variables $ave t$e
biggest i%&at (or
signi0ane) in
e<&laining t$e
%odel(
+ro% =able 1, we
observe t$at
a&aity, storage
a&aity, and area
are variables wit$ a
&ositive sign o* t$e
oe*0ients,
i%&lying t$at t$e
invest%ent ost
would inrease
wit$ an inre%ent
on t$ese variables(
=$e last olu%n
in =able 1 indiates
t$at t$e a&aity o*
t$e &lant is t$e
variable $aving t$e
$ig$est i%&at on
e<&laining t$e
%odelF t$en we
$ave total area, t$e
storage a&aity,
t$e installed
ountry, and 0nally
t$e te$nology
used(
.t is interesting to
re%ar5 t$at our
results indiate
t$at C$ile is t$e less
e<&ensive ountry
*or t$e installation
o* a solar &ower
&lant( Dn t$e ot$er
$and, Stirling?dis$
syste%s $ave t$e
lowest invest%ent
ost o* all
te$nologies,
*ollowed by solar
tower and t$en
&araboli troug$(
.t is i%&ortant to
onsider t$at t$e
regression $ad 37
&araboli?troug$
&lants, seven solar?
tower &lants and
only one Stirling?
dis$ &lant(
.t %ay be
sur&rising t$at
radiation was not
inluded as a
8
R
S
"
=e
$nolo
gy
R'
0

4
3
0'
7
1
4
9

1
9
8
'
2
8
8
0
i* /araboli troug$
i* Stirling dis$
i* Solar tower
sign
i0
ant
e<&
lana
tory
vari
able
in
t$e
%o
del(
=$is
is
%ai
nly
b
e

a
u
se
t$
e
in
s
t
a
l
l
a
t
i
o
n ountry
e<&lains it wit$ a
orrelation o*
96>( .n addition,
t$e installation
ountry e<&lains
labor?wor5 ost
and ot$er
variables(
0
1
6
8
0
9
8
8
R
"
C
87
'8
9
i
i
3(2( Solar
&$otovoltai
regression
%odel
E@( (1) s$ows t$e
invest%ent ost
*untion *or
t$er%al solar
&ower &lants, in
%illions o* 1S
dollars, as a
*untion o* t$e
a&aity (in 4;),
t$e area utili-ed (in
$etares), t$e
storage a&aity
(in $ours o* storage
&er a&aity in
4;$), t$e
te$nology
e%&loyed
(&araboli troug$,
Stirling dis$ and
solar tower), and
t$e ountry o*
installation (C$ile,
S&ain, 1S2)(
.n statistis and
eono%etris,
&artiularly in
regression analy?
sis, a du%%y
variable (also
5nown as an
indiator variable)
is one t$at ta5es
t$e values 0 or 1 to
indiate t$e
absene or
&resene o* so%e
ategorial e**ets
t$at %ay be
e<&eted to s$i*t
t$e outo%e( .n
(1), we use
du%%y variables
to onsider t$e
absene or
=$e studied
variables o* t$e
&$otovoltai solar
&ar5s are total
installed ost,
te$nology, &ower
a&aity, installed
ountry, year o*
o%%issioning,
total &lant area,
eletriity
generation,
a&aity *ator, and
radiation(
2s in t$e ase o*
t$e t$er%al
regression %odel,
several %ulti?
variable linear
regressions were
*or%ulated wit$
di**erent o%bi?
nations o* t$e
variables( .t was
*ound t$at t$e
%ain e<&lanatory
variables (i(e(, t$e
ones wit$ t$e
$ig$est statistial
signi0ane levels)
*or t$e invest%ent
ost o* &$otovoltai
solar &ower &lants
are a&aity,
te$nology, year
o* o%%issioning
and installed
ountry( 1sing
t$ese variables, we
*or%ulate a
%ultivariable
linear
regression wit$ an R?S@uared o* 96(4>,
w$i$ is s$own in (2)(
.nvest%ent ost N b
0
E b
1
Ca&aity E b
2
Tear
E "
=e$nology
E "
Country
P2Q
w$ere b
0
N 29,894, b
1
N 8(89, b
2
N ?14(74, and
"
=e$nology
and "
Coun?
try are given as
*ollows'
=able 2 s$ows t$e esti%ated
&ara%eters o* t$e %ulti&le? regression
%odel( 9ote t$at t$e installation year $as a
negative? sign oe*0ient, w$i$ is
onsistent wit$ t$e urrent literature about
invest%ent osts I13J( 2s well, in =able 2, we
observe t$at +irst Solar Cad%iu% =elluride
=$in +il% is t$e te$nology t$at $as t$e
lowest invest%ent ost (wit$ a statistially
signi0ant oe*0?
"
=e
$no
log
y
8
0 R
30
9
R
'
R
RS

21'1
R

173'4
R
R
26'8
R
'R

38'
3
i* 1?2<is
%onorystall
ine silion i*
1?2<is
&olyrystalli
ne silion
i* 2?2<is
&olyrystalli
ne silion i*
+irst solar
ad%iu%
telluride i*
4onorystal
line silion
i*
/olyryst
alline
silion
ient o* 173)(
=$e last olu%n in =able 2 indiates t$at
t$e a&aity o* t$e &lant is t$e variable
$aving t$e $ig$est i%&at on e<&laining
t$e %odelF t$en we $ave t$e te$nology
and t$e ountry (i* we loo5 at t$e *ator *or
+irst Solar Cad%iu% =elluride =$in +il% and
1S2, res&etively), and 0nally we $ave t$e
installation year(
"
Co
un
try
8
0
R

16
2
R
'
R
RS
17'8
R

21'
8
R
8'88
R
R'

34'7
i*
Cer
%an
y i*
.taly
i*
:o
rea
i*
S&
ain
i*
1S2
i* C$ile
=
$e
obt
ain
ed
o
st
in*
or%
atio
n
*or
t$e di**erent te$nologies o* solar &ower is
used in t$e ne<t setion to si%ulate t$e
long? ter% o&eration o* t$e C$ilean
9ort$ern .nteronneted /ower Syste%(
E@( (2) s$ows t$e invest%ent ost
*untion *or &$otovoltai solar &ower
&lants, in %illions o* 1S dollars, as a
*untion o* t$e a&aity (in 4;), t$e year o*
installation, t$e te$nology (&oly?
rystalline and %ono?rystalline silion
wit$ di**erent tra5ing, and 0rst solar
ad%iu% telluride t$in 0l%) and t$e
installation ountry (Cer%any, .taly, :orea,
S&ain, 1S2, and C$ile)( .n (2), we use
du%%y variables to onsider t$e absene
or &resene o* t$e in0uene o* t$e
te$nology and t$e ountry in t$e
invest%ent ost(
=able 2
/ara%eter esti%ates *or &$otovoltai
invest%ent ost regression %odel(
!ariables Coe*0ient Std( Err
t / 4 9t9 Meta
4( C$ilean nort$ern interonneted &ower
syste% si%ulation
"ue to t$e narrow and long *eatures o*
t$e C$ilean territory, C$ile $as *our
inde&endent &ower networ5s( =$ese are' (i)
t$e 9ort$ern .nteronneted Syste% (S.9C),
&roviding energy to t$e nort$ -one, w$ere
t$e %ain %ining industry is loated, (ii)
t$e Central .nteronneted Syste% (S.C),
&roviding energy to t$e entral and sout$
regions, w$ere %ost o* t$e &o&ulation lives,
(iii) t$e 2yseU n Syste%, a s%all isolated
syste% in t$e e<tre%e sout$ o* C$ile, and
(iv) t$e 4agallanes Syste%, w$i$
overs anot$er isolated area in t$e e<tre%e
sout$ o* C$ile(
=$e C$ilean S.9C syste% is a 220 5! and
800 5! 2C &ower syste% wit$ none ba5 to
ba5 K!"C lines( =$e installed genera? tion
a&aity in t$e C$ilean S.9C &ower
syste% in 2011 was
Ca&aity 8(891 0(39
66
21(
66
0 1(09
4888 4;, wit$ an annual onsu%&tion o* 18,889 C;$ I23J(
Tear
14(742
11(12
2

1(3
0(1
98
0(077
"u%%y /oli?Si 38(3 19(23
4

1(9
0(0
88
0(167
"u%%y /oli?Si?
1a

30(964
23(63
7

1(3
0(2
03
0(088
.nteronneted /ower Syste% (S.9C) to assess t$e
eono%i
"u%%y /oli?Si?
2a
21(094 20(83
6
1(
0
0(3
22
0(069
i%&at o* installing a solar &ower &lant in t$e S.9C(
"u%%y 4ono?Si 26(828 23(79
4
1(
1
0(2
71
0(084
;e utili-e t$e DSE2000A so*tware I24J, w$i$ uses
Sto$asti
"u%%y +S?Cd=e 173(388 33(727 8(14 0 0(348
"ual "yna%i /rogra%%ing (S""/) to o&ti%i-e t$e o&erational "u%%y .taly 16(18 42(00
4

0(3
0(7
04
0(0446
"u%%y :orea 17(849 40(82
2
0(
4
0(6
64
0(0287
"u%%y /ortugal
21(818
36(11
1

0(6
0(8
82
0(0829 &ries *or ea$ node o* t$e syste%( ;e onsider a $ori-on o*
"u%%y S&ain
8(888
82(81
3

0(1
0(9
12
0(0084
11 years (onsistently wit$ t$e in*or%ation available about t$e
and total syste% ost, esti%ating t$e
o&ti%al *uture energy
"u%%y 1S2 39(818
40(028 0(99 0(334 0(1643
"u%%y C$ile 34(69
40(283 0(86 0(398 0(069
Constant 29,894(06
22,384 1(32 0(199
o&eration o* t$e S.9C and about t$e new
&ower &lants to be inor&orated in t$e
*uture to t$e syste%)(.t is i%&ortant to
%ention t$at DSE2000A uses $ourly
in*or%ation to &er*or% t$e
85
Marginal Cost (USD/MWh)
75
65
55
011
01
01! 01"
015
016
017
018 019
00
01
ear
Actual
Sy#te$
Solar%S
Solar%&'
&1
SolarD(7
Solar%%
Solar%&
'FS
Solar%&
'&
SolarDS
Solar%%7
Solar%&
'M
SolarD%
SolarD&
'FS
Solar%(
Solar%&'
M1
SolarD%7
SolarD&
'M
Solar%(7
Solar%&'
&
SolarD(
SolarD&'
M1
+ig( 2( 4arginal syste% ost *or atual syste% and *or new solar senarios(
+( del Sol, E( Sau%a ) Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 19 (2013) 489498
14
14
+( del Sol, E( Sau%a ) Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 19 (2013) 489498
long?ter% o&eration o* t$e S.9CF w$i$ is an i%&ortant *eature in
t$e ase o* solar &ower &lants due to t$e signi0ant di**er? enes
in solar generation t$roug$ t$e day( 4oreover, t$e
=able 3
9o%enlature *or%at *or te$nology(
Sy%bol =e$nology
DSE2000A so*tware assu%es t$at t$e eletriity %ar5et is &er?

*etly o%&etitive and t$e de%and is &er*etly inelasti( =$is
so*tware is widely used by C$ilean regulators and eletrial
C

C
/araboli troug$
/araboli troug$ wit$ 7 $ o* storage
o%&anies to esti%ate *uture &ries and &lan t$e grid
= Solar &ower tower
=7 Solar &ower tower wit$ 7 $ o* storage
;e si%ulate 44 di**erent senarios, onsidering 11 di**erent
S
/
!
Stirling dis$
+irst solar Cd=e t$in 0l% /!
te$nologies and *our installation sites wit$in t$e S.9C( Ea$ o* /!4 4ono?rystalline silion /!
t$e 44 senarios orres&onds to only one solar &ower &lant added
/!41 4ono?rystalline silion /! wit$ one a<is
tra5ing
e<&ansions(
to t$e syste%( =$en, ea$ senario was
o%&ared wit$ t$e atual o&eration o* t$e
syste%(
=$e installation sites $osen *or t$e
si%ulations are Cala%a, "olores, /o-o
2l%onte, and =a%arugal, sine t$ese are
t$e sites wit$ t$e $ig$est energy &ries
and t$e $ig$est solar radiations wit$in t$e
S.9C(
=$ere are di**erent ways *or esti%ating
solar?radiation and weat$er in*or%ation
I2827J( .n t$is wor5, 4eteonor%A 6(0
so*t? ware I28J in*or%ation was used,
w$i$ $as satellite in*or%ation *ro% t$e
9ational Renewable Energy Baboratory
(9REB) and 92S2 toget$er wit$ statistial
and %at$e%atial %odels to &redit
$ourly in*or%ation(
=$e generation a&aities o* t$e
si%ulated &ower &lants are
200 4; *or t$er%al te$nologies and 100
4; *or &$otovoltai te$nologies( =$e
reasons *or $oosing t$ose values are
t$at (i) t$e invest%ent ost is t$e lowest
*or t$er%al &ower &lants wit$ a&aities
over 200 4; I29J, and (ii) &$otovoltai
te$nol? ogies are %odular, w$ere 100 4;
was alibrated in DSE2000A *or reating a
no?negligible i%&at in t$e total syste%
ost(
=$e a%ount o* energy generated *ro%
t$e di**erent solar te$nologies was
obtained by using t$e Solar 2dvisor
4odel (S24A) so*tware, version
2010(4(12 I30J(.n &artiular, $ourly
energy generation *or a o%&lete year
was si%ulated, using S24A, *or &araboli
troug$, solar tower, Stirling dis$, +irst Solar
Cd=e, &olyrystalline and %ono?
rystalline silion *or a 0<ed &osition and
*or one?a<is and two?a<is tra5ing(
=$is $ourly generation in*or%ation was
inluded in t$e DSE2000A %odel, along
wit$ t$e in*or%ation about t$e energy
sel*?onsu%ed by t$e new solar &ower
&lants and about t$e urrent o&eration o*
t$e S.9C (de%and, %arginal osts o*
&rodu? tions, available generation
a&aities, available trans%ission
a&aities, et()( =$e outo%e o* t$e
si%ulation inludes t$e total syste% ost,
t$e o&erational syste% ost, and t$e total
generation? o%&any ino%e *or t$e
installed solar &lant, a%ong ot$er
in*or%ation(
4(1( S.9C
si%ulation outo%e
+( del Sol, E( Sau%a ) Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 19 (2013) 489498
18
=$e total syste% ost and t$e %arginal
ost o* t$e syste% *or t$e $ori-on o* 11
years are obtained diretly *ro% t$e
DSE2000A si%ulation( +ig( 2 s$ows t$e
evolution over ti%e o* t$e %arginal ost o*
t$e syste%, w$en inor&orating t$e
di**erent ty&es o* solar &ower &lants( =$e
sa%e general &attern is *ollowed by every
urve in +ig( 2 beause t$e addition o* any
single o* t$ese solar &ower &lants $as a
s%all e**et on t$e overall energy
&rodution ost o* t$e syste%( 4a#or
e**ets are related to t$e grid in*rastruture
&lan, w$i$ is onsidered t$e sa%e in all
ases(
2 solar &ower &lant using &araboli
troug$ te$nology wit$
7 $ o* storage is t$e one wit$ t$e
$ig$est redution in t$e %arginal ost o*
t$e syste%( +ro% +ig( 2, we note t$at t$e
loation o* t$e &ower &lant (a%ong t$e
*our seleted sites) does not $ave a signi0
ant i%&at on t$e syste% %arginal
ost( .* we would install a 200 4; solar
&araboli troug$ &ower &lant wit$ 7 $ o*
/!/
/olyrystalline silion /!
/!/1
/olyrystalline silion /! wit$ one a<is
tra5ing
/!/2
/olyrystalline silion /! wit$ two a<is
tra5ing
storage in "olores, t$ere would be an
average derease o* 3(3
1S")4;$ in t$e %arginal ost o* t$e
syste% wit$ res&et to t$e atual syste%
o&eration( .n t$is ase, t$e largest
di**erene *ro% t$e syste% %arginal ost
o* t$e atual (i(e(, business?as?usual)
situation would $a&&en in year 2017,
rea$ing 8(6 1S")4;$(
=$e no%enlature used in t$e re*erenes
o* t$e 0gures *ollows t$e *ollowing *or%at'
SolarI&laeJIte$nologyJ, w$ere t$e nota?
tion *or t$e &lae is' C N Cala%a, " N
"olores, = N =a%arugal, and /2 N /o-o
2l%onte and t$e notation *or t$e
te$nology is given in =able 3(
4(2( Ele%ents *or t$e
eono%i evaluation
+or t$e eono%i evaluation on t$e
li*eti%e o* t$e new solar &ower &lant, a
$ori-on o* 30 years was $osen( =$e
DSE2000ALs 11 year out&ut was &ro#eted
until 2040 using a linear 0t urve *or all t$e
ases, *ollowing t$e $istorial trend(
9e<t we detail t$e alulations
assoiated to every o%&onent o* t$e
eono%i evaluation(
4(2(1( Carbon
redits
+or all t$e solar &ro#ets onsidered
$ere, arbon redits were inluded as
bene0ts t$roug$out t$e years o* o&eration(
Meause t$ere are no solar &ower &lants
urrently installed in C$ile, an e%ission
+( del Sol, E( Sau%a ) Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 19 (2013) 489498
16
16
+( del Sol, E( Sau%a ) Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 19 (2013) 489498
*ator o* 0(87 =onCD
2
)4;$ (t$at was
a&&roved by t$e 1nited 9ations
+ra%ewor5 Convention on Cli%ate C$ange
(19+CC) *or Canela ;ind +ar% &ro#et in
C$ile) I31J was used in t$is study( =$e
bene0ts *ro% arbon redits are added
to t$e eono%i evaluations o* every solar
&lant using a &rie o* 18(42 1S")=onCD
2
,
w$i$ a&&ro<i%ately orres&onds to t$e
average &rie o* arbon bonds traded
during t$e 0rst $al* o* 2010 in t$e
Euro&ean 4ar5et E<$ange I32J((;e use
t$e e@uivalene 1 Euro N 1(2292 1S")(
+ig( 3 s$ows t$e annual bene0ts in
%illions o* 1S" t$at t$e di**erent solar
te$nologies would obtain *ro% arbon
redits *or a solar &ower &lant installed in
Cala%a( "i**erenes are beause ea$
te$nology $as a di**erent a&aity *ator so
t$ey generate a di**erent a%ount o* eletri
energy t$roug$out t$e year(
4(2(2( .no%e *ro%
energy generation
2nnual &rivate ino%e *ro% energy
generation, in %illion o* 1S", is s$own in
+ig( 4 *or t$e di**erent solar te$nologies
loated in Cala%a( =$ese values were
obtained *ro% t$e linear &ro#etion o* t$e
DSE2000A si%ulation outo%e(
4(2(3( .no%e *ro% &ower
a&aity &ay%ents
.n C$ile, generation o%&anies reeive a
a&aity &ay%ent *or t$eir installed &ower
a&aity, i* it is onsidered t$at t$ey
ontribute to t$e energy reserves in ase o*
a ontingeny( =$e last re&ort *ro% C$ilean
Energy Co%%ission (C9E) stated a &rie
Car!on credits ann"al !ene#its in Millions o#
USD
)1
)10
)8
)6
)"
)
)*
% %7 ( (7 S &'FS &'M &'M1 &'&
&'&1 &'&
+ig( 3( 2nnual ino%e *ro% arbon redits *or solar &lants in
Cala%a, C$ile(
Ann"al Income #rom energy generation in
Millions o# USD
60
50
"0
!0
0
10
0
+ig( 4( 2nnual ino%e *ro% energy generation *or solar &lants in
Cala%a, C$ile(
Ann"al Income #rom ca$acity $ayments in
Millions o# USD
8
7
6
5
"
!

1
0
+ig( 8( 2nnual ino%e *ro% installed &ower *or solar &lants in
Cala%a, C$ile(
o* 8(7142 1S")5;)%ont$s e@uivalent to
0(108 1S")4;)year *or 0r% &ower I33J(
E@( (3) s$ows $ow t$e annual ino%e
*ro% &ower a&aity &ay%ents is
alulated( =o obtain t$is ino%e, we
use t$e 0r% &ower &reli%inary *ator
(+//+), w$i$ establis$es t$e &erentage o*
0r% &ower t$at a ertain &ower &lant an
&rovide I34J( ;e use a +//+ o* 0(606, w$i$
was used *or wind
1+"00
Investment Costs in Millions o# USD
1+00
1+000
800
600
"00
00
0
% %7 ( (7 S &'FS &'M &'M1 &'&
&'&1 &'&
+ig( 6( .nvest%ent ost
*or solar &lants in C$ile(
%$eration and Maintenance Cost in USD/MWh
16
1"
1
10
8
6
"

0
% %7 ( (7 S &'FS &'M &'M1 &'&
&'&1 &'&
+ig( 7( D&eration and %aintenane ost *or a solar &lant in
C$ile(
*ar%s in C$ile I31J(
.no%e N Ca&aity n Ca&aity +ator n
+ir% /ower /rie n +//+
P3
Q
+or addressing t$is issue, and beause /!
te$nology is %odular, we assu%e t$e use
o* %odules o* /! te$nology wit$ a a&aity
e@ual to t$e average o* t$e a&aities o* t$e
/! &ower &lants used as data in t$e
regression %odel(
1
=$at is, we use two b lo5s o*
+ig( 8 s$ows t$e annual ino%e
*ro% &ower a&aity &ay%ents, in %illions
o* 1S", *or t$e di**erent solar te$nologies
loated in Cala%a(
4(2(4( .nvest%ent osts
;e use t$e %ultivariable linear
regression results o* Setion 3 to obtain t$e
invest%ent osts o* t$e onsidered solar
&ower &lants installed in C$ile(
Reall t$at we loo5 *or t$e invest%ent
osts o* t$er%al &ower &lants wit$ a
a&aity o* 200 4; and &$otovoltai (/!)
&ower &lants wit$ a a&aity o* 100 4;(
;$ile t$e data used *or obtaining t$e
%ultivariate linear regression %odel *or
t$er%al &ower &lants onsisted o* a wide
range o* a&aities, t$is is not t$e ase *or
/! &ower &lants( =$e data used *or
obtaining t$e %ultivariate linear
regression %odel *or /! &ower &lants on?
sisted o* di**erent a&aities in t$e range o*
660 4; de&ending on t$e te$nology(
=$us, /! &lants wit$ 100 4; are not in t$e
range o* t$e data used in t$e %ultivariate
linear regression %odel(
80 4; *or +irst Solar t$in?0l% (/!+S), 0ve
blo5s o* 20 4; *or %ono?rystalline silion
(/!4) and &olyrystalline wit$ two?a<is
tra5ing (/!/2) and *our blo5s o* 28 4;
*or t$e rest (/!41, /!/, /!/1)(
+ig( 6 s$ows t$e invest%ent osts, in
%illions o* dollars, o* t$e di**erent solar
generation te$nologies( =$e 0gure s$ows
t$at t$e ost o* %ono?rystalline
&$otovoltai (/!4) te$nology is $ig$er
t$an t$e sa%e te$nology wit$ one?a<is
tra5ing (/!41)( =$is une<&eted result is
e<&lained beause %ost o* t$e &ower &lants
t$at use one?a<is tra5ing belong to Sun
/ower Cor&(, w$i$ is one o* t$e %ar5et
leaders o* t$is te$nology, $aving t$e
lowest osts( ;e assu%e C$ile is not
%anu*aturing any /! &anel or /=C
olletor, as it is in t$e atual ase( Currently,
C$ile i%&orts t$e% %ainly *ro% t$e 1S,
Euro&e and C$ina( .n addition, we do not
1
+or e<a%&le, &olyrystalline
te$nology $as 18 di**erent &lants, wit$
a a&aity range o* 660 4;( .t was
$osen a blo5 o* 20 4; beause t$e
average a&aity o* t$e 18 &lants is
a&&ro<i%ately 20 4;(
onsider a&ital e<&enditures *or
renovation and %oderni-ation as a ost
o%&onent (w$i$ %ay be obtained *ro%
I38J)(
4(2(8( D&erational and %aintenane osts
D&erational and %aintenane ost *or
t$er%al te$nologies were ta5en *ro%
&ro#ets o* t$e Cali*ornia Energy
Co%%ission I36J (sine a %ulti&le linear
regression was not suess*ul on &roviding
t$is in*or%ation), using an average ost &er
ea$ te$nology( +or /! te$nologies,
in*or%ation *ro% t$e 1S "e&art? %ent o*
EnergyLs 2008 solar te$nologies %ar5et
re&ort was used I37J( +ig( 7 s$ows t$e
o&erational and %aintenane ost, in 1S")
4;$, o* t$e di**erent solar generation
te$nologies(
4(3( Eono%i evaluation results
;e &er*or%ed two di**erent eono%i
evaluations' one denoted as VVsoialLL, w$i$
orres&onds to t$e eono%i evalua? tion
onsidering t$e entire &ower setor as a
w$ole, and ot$er denoted as VV&rivateLL,
w$i$ orres&onds to t$e eono%i evalua?
tion onsidering only t$e i%&ats on t$e
new solar &ower &lant (wit$out ta5ing into
aount t$e negative e<ternality &rodued
to t$e ot$er generation o%&anies)(
+or t$e soial net &resent value (9/!),
t$e bene0ts are %easured as t$e
di**erene between t$e atual syste% total
ost and t$e total ost o* t$e syste%
inluding t$e new solar &ower &lant( +or
t$e &rivate net &resent value (9/!), t$e
bene0ts are %easured as t$e su% o* t$e
%onetary ino%e o* t$e solar &ower &lant
*ro% energy sales, a&aity &ay%ents, and
arbon redit sales( ;e use an interest rate
o* 6> *or o%&uting t$e soial 9/! and o* 8>
*or o%&uting t$e &rivate 9/!(
=ables 4 and 8 s$ow t$e soial eono%i
evaluation (in %illions o*
1S dollars) *or a &ower &lant loated in
Cala%a(
.t is i%&ortant to %ention t$at t$is soial
eono%i evaluation does not inlude t$e
soial bene0ts o* t$e solar &ower &lants in
ter%s o* t$e i%&rove%ents in t$e
&ower?syste% reliability( Dn t$e ot$er
$and, ontrary to w$at $a&&ens in t$e
&rivate eono%i evaluation, t$e soial
eono%i evaluation does a&ture t$e
eono%i disadvantage over t$e ot$er?
te$nology &lants o* t$e syste% &rodued
by installing a solar &ower &lant (due to t$e
lower %arginal ost &rodued w$en
installing a solar &ower &lant)(
=$e results o* t$e soial eono%i
evaluations o* every solar &ower &lant
analy-ed are s$own in +ig( 8( =$is 0gure
s$ows t$at, under t$e urrent %ar5et
onditions, installing a solar &ower
=able 4
Soial 9/! (rate N 6>) *or a t$er%al &lant
loated in Cala%a, C$ile
a
(a%ounts in
%illions o* 1S dollars)(
=e$nology C C7
= =7 S
Soial 9/! 367(98 813(36
314(73 848(18 74(91
a
=$e te$nology notation is as
e<&lained in =able 3(
=able 6
/rivate 9/! (rate N 8>) *or a t$er%al
&lant loated in Cala%a, C$ile (a%ounts
in %illions o* 1S dollars)(
=e$nology C C7
= =7 S
/rivate 9/! 308(92 438(24
263(74 469(31 97(68
=able 8
Soial 9/! (rate N 6>) *or a /! &lant
loated in Cala%a, C$ile (a%ounts in
%illions o* 1S dollars)(
=e$nology /!+S /!4
/!41 /!/ /!/1 /!/2
Soial 9/! 189(44 369(37
172(73 176(11 114(48 242(3
=able 7
/rivate 9/! (rate N 8>) *or a /! &lant
loated in Cala%a, C$ile (a%ounts in
%illions o* 1S dollars)(
=e$nology /!+S /!4
/!41 /!/ /!/1 /!/2
/rivate 9/! 140(21 330(69
188(8 188(84 108(19 228(13
Solar%%
Solar%%7
Solar%( Solar%(7
Solar%S Solar%&'FS Solar%&'M Solar%&'M1
Solar%&'& Solar%&'&1
Solar%&'&
SolarD% SolarD%7
SolarD( SolarD(7
SolarDS SolarD&'FS SolarD&'M SolarD&'M1
SolarD&'& SolarD&'&1
SolarD&'&
Solar(% Solar(%7
Solar(( Solar((7
Solar(S Solar(&'FS Solar(&'M Solar(&'M1
Solar(&'& Solar(&'&1
Solar(&'&
Solar&A% Solar&A%7
Solar&A( Solar&A(7
Solar&AS Solar&A&'FS Solar&A&'M Solar&A&'M1
Solar&A&'& Solar&A&'&1
Solar&A&'&
)0
,)100-
,)00-
,)!00-
,)"00-
,)500-
,)600-
,)700-
+ig( 8( Soial 9/! o* t$e
di**erent solar &ower
&lants(
Solar%%
Solar%%7
Solar%( Solar%(7
Solar%S Solar%&'FS Solar%&'M Solar%&'M1
Solar%&'& Solar%&'&1
Solar%&'&
SolarD% SolarD%7
SolarD( SolarD(7
SolarDS SolarD&'FS SolarD&'M SolarD&'M1
SolarD&'& SolarD&'&1
SolarD&'&
Solar(% Solar(%7
Solar(( Solar((7
Solar(S Solar(&'FS Solar(&'M Solar(&'M1
Solar(&'& Solar(&'&1
Solar(&'&
Solar&A% Solar&A%7
Solar&A( Solar&A(7
Solar&AS Solar&A&'FS Solar&A&'M Solar&A&'M1
Solar&A&'& Solar&A&'&1
Solar&A&'&
)0
,)100-
,)00-
,)!00-
,)"00-
,)500-
,)600-
,)700-
+ig( 9( /rivate 9/! o* t$e
di**erent solar &ower
&lants(
&lant in t$e nort$ o* C$ile is not
eono%ially bene0ial *or all solar
te$nologies and loalities studied(
9onet$eless, we %ust re%ar5 t$at t$e
soial eono%i evalua? tion &er*or%ed
does not inlude any bene0t assoiated to
eit$er t$e i%&rove%ents in t$e &ower?
syste% reliability or t$e inre? %ent in
labor rate due to t$e new solar &ower &lant(
4oreover, i* we onsidered ot$er &ositive
e<ternalities o* installing solar &ower in
t$e nort$ o* C$ile or di**erent eono%i
onditions, t$e installation o* a solar &ower
&lant in t$e nort$ o* C$ile %ay be
eono%ially bene0ial(
=$e &rivate evaluation, onsidering an
interest rate o* 8> to o%&ute t$e 9/!, *or
t$e ases o* t$er%al and /! te$nologies
are s$own in =ables 6 and 7, res&etively( ;e
*ound t$at t$e best loation (*ro% a &rivate
&oint o* view) *or installing solar &ower
&lants in nort$ern C$ile is Cala%a, result
t$at is onsistent wit$ I13J( =$is is beause a
solar &ower &lant installed in t$is loation
gives %ore eletrial generation and %ore
%onetary ino%e t$an in t$e ot$er
loations studied(
;it$ res&et to t$e te$nology, it was
*ound t$at Stirling dis$ is t$e te$nology
t$at gives t$e $ig$est &rivate 9/!( Reall
t$at ost data *ro% t$is te$nology was
ta5en *ro% 1S "e&art%ent o* Energy Solar
Energy =e$nologies 4ulti?year /rogra%
/lan I38J(
;it$ res&et to t$e storage, it was *ound
t$at is not eono%ially bene0ial to
inlude it wit$ &araboli troug$ or solar
tower( +or t$e ase o* a &araboli troug$
&lant loated in Cala%a, to add 7 $ o*
t$er%al storage it re&resents a dere%ent
o* 129 %illions o* dollars to t$e &rivate 9/!
and 148 %illions o* dollars to t$e soial
9/! (using an interest rate o* 6>)(
=$e results o* t$e &rivate eono%i
evaluations o* every solar &ower &lant
analy-ed are s$own in +ig( 9( =$is 0gure
s$ows t$at, under t$e urrent %ar5et
onditions, installing a solar &ower &lant in
t$e nort$ o* C$ile is not eono%ially
bene0ial *or all solar te$nologies and
loalities studied( Kowever, i* we onsid?
ered di**erent eono%i onditions, t$e
&rivate 9/! %ay be &ositive( +or instane,
i* t$e &rie o* arbon bonds $ange to
81(83 1S")=onCD
2
, t$e Stirling?dis$ solar
&ower &lant in Cala%a is eono%ially bene0
ial *or t$e &rivate evaluation at an interest
rate o* 8>( =$is would also $a&&en i* t$e
govern%ent would give an eono%i
inentive o* 97(68 %illions o* 1S" *or t$e
onstru? tion o* a 200 4; Stirling?dis$
solar &ower &lant in Cala%a( .n t$is
senario (a Stirling "is$ solar &lant in
Cala%a), t$e brea5
even a&ital ost is 2(33 %illion o* 1S")4;
and t$e brea5 even energy ost is 9(3
ents)5;$(
8( Conlusions
;e $ave s$own t$at it is &ossible to
identi*y a li%ited nu%ber o* variables t$at
e<&lain t$e variations on t$e invest%ent
ost o* solar &ower &lants( =$e invest%ent
ost o* solar t$er%al &ower &lants is
%ainly e<&lained by t$eir te$nology,
a&aity, area, storage a&aity, and
installed ountry( =$e results o* t$e %ulti?
variable linear regressions &er*or%ed s$ow
t$at t$e a&aity is t$e %ost signi0ant
variable in e<&laining t$e invest%ent ost,
C$ile is t$e less e<&ensive ountry *or t$e
installation o* a solar t$er%al &ower &lant,
and Stirling dis$ is t$e te$nology wit$ t$e
lowest invest%ent ost( Dn t$e ot$er $and,
t$e invest%ent ost o* solar &$otovoltai
&ower &lants is %ainly e<&lained by t$eir
te$nology, a&aity, installation year, and
installation ountry( =$e results o* t$e
%ultivariable linear regressions &er*or%ed
s$ow t$at t$e a&aity is t$e %ost signi0
ant variable in e<&laining t$e invest?
%ent ost, C$ile is t$e less e<&ensive
ountry *or t$e installation o* a solar
&$otovoltai &lant, and t$at +irst Solar Cd=e
=$in +il% is t$e te$nology wit$ t$e lowest
invest%ent ost(
;e si%ulated t$e long?ter% o&eration o*
t$e C$ilean 9ort$ern .nteronneted /ower
Syste% (S.9C) to assess t$e eono%i
i%&at o* installing a solar &ower &lant in
t$e S.9C( =$e &ower &lant wit$ t$e $ig$est
redution in t$e syste% %arginal ost is a
&araboli troug$ wit$ 7 $ o* storage loated
in Cala%a( =$is is e<&lained beause t$is
is t$e te$nology and loation t$at
generates t$e $ig$est level o* energy wit$
t$e lowest %arginal ost( .t was *ound an
average derease o* 26 %illions o* 1S" on
t$e total syste% ost by introduing t$is
solar &ower &lant(
;e also @uanti*y t$e soial (&ower?
setor) and &rivate net bene0ts o* t$e
installation o* a solar &ower &lant in t$e
nort$ o* C$ile and deter%ine so%e
onditions under w$i$ t$ey are &ositive(
=$e net &resent values o* 11 di**erent
te$nologies were alulated *or *our
di**erent loalities in t$e nort$ o* C$ile( =$e
results s$ow t$at t$e best &lae *or
installing solar &ower &lants (*ro% a &rivate
view&oint) is Cala%a, w$ere %ore
eletrial generation and %ore %onetary
ino%e are obtained t$an in t$e ot$er
loations studied( Considering t$e ost data
*ro% Stirling?dis$ &ro#et inluded in t$e
regression, t$is te$nology $as t$e lowest
9/!( =$er%al energy storage is not
eono%ially bene0ial *or &araboli
troug$ or solar tower &ower &lants(
Sine t$e results s$ow t$at t$e 9/!
assoiated to so%e solar &ower &lant
&ro#ets are lose to -ero, $ig$er arbon
bonds &ries or a s%all derease in t$e ost
o* *uel &ries ould %a5e &ositive so%e
&rivate 9/!( +or instane, i* t$e &rie o*
arbon bonds $ange to 81(83 1S")=onCD
2
,
t$e Stirling?dis$ solar &ower &lant in
Cala%a is eono%ially bene0ial *or t$e
&rivate evaluation at an interest rate o* 8>(
=$is %ay also $a&&en i* t$e govern%ent
would give an eono%i inentive o* 97(68
%illions o* 1S" *or t$e onstrution o* a
200 4; Stirling?dis$ solar &ower &lant
in Cala%a(
=$e brea5 even a&ital ost and energy
ost *or a Stirling "is$ solar &lant in Cala%a
are 2(33 %illions o* 1S")4; and 9(3 ents)
5;$, res&etively( 4oreover, onsidering all
t$e &ositive e<tern? alities *or onsu%ers
t$at t$is ty&e o* &ro#ets brings (w$i$ are
not *ully @uanti0ed in t$is resear$ wor5),
t$e soial 9/! an inrease( =$is %ay
eventually %a5e t$e soial 9/! &ositive(
+inally, it is wort$ to %ention t$at t$ere
are several interna? tional e<&erienes
about ost esti%ations o* solar &ower
&lants( =$ey vary in t$e %et$odology used
and t$e trends o* t$e results( Kowever, one
i%&ortant lesson t$at one an ta5e *ro%
t$e e<isting literature is t$at t$e ost
esti%ation de&end (in so%e way) on t$e
loal onte<t o* t$e &ower %ar5et(
2ordingly, one %ig$t e<&et t$at &oliy
%a5ers (es&eially *ro% develo&ing
ountries li5e C$ile) will &ay %ore attention
in t$e *uture to t$e loal environ%ent o*
&ower %ar5ets w$en &lanning &ower
syste% e<&ansions(
25nowled
g%ents
=$e aut$ors 5indly a5nowledge 2ndreU s
Cu-%aU n *or all t$e advie and $el& wit$
t$e DSE2000A so*tware si%ulation(
Re*ere
nes
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Renewable and Sustainable Energy
Reviews 2010F14(2)'78462(
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2003F8'3743(
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2010F38'163243(
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2011F18(9)'447082(
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2011F18(9)'482938(
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