(GISN22 Report) Geographical Information System and Climate Change

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTREME EVENTS ON AGRICULTURE AND

HYDROLOGYIN NIGERIA.
NJOKU, ELIJAH AKWARANDU
GIS Unit
Department of Geography and Ecosystem Science
Lund University, Sweden.
Email:gis10enj@student.lu.se
Introduction:
Analyses of climatic variables as well as available observational evidence has made it
sufficiently clear that global climate has become warmer than it was more than 100 years ago
(UNEP, 2007, WMO, 2011). Climate projections based on simulated data on temperature,
precipitation, wind speed and snow depth using Global Climate Models (GCM) in different
future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions show an increase in global temperature in
combination with changes in the occurrence of climate extremes (IPCC 2013). While the
current change in climate has triggered phenomenal impacts affecting nearly all physical and
biological systems, projected climate change in different GHG emission scenarios may affect
man and his environment in more obvious and perhaps disastrous ways. Consequently, climate
change has become a buzz phrase in academic and political circles and within the general lay
public. One of the greatest impacts of climate change is the worseningcondition of extreme
weather events like drought, flood, rainstorms, windstorms, thunderstorms, landslides,
avalanches and tsunamis, among others (Odjugo 1999, 2001; Changnon 2001). It has been
noted that, while climate change generally results in enormous destructive impacts, it is the
extreme climatic events that cause the most destructive and disproportionate impact on lives
and property, and so represent a vital aspect of climate variability and change. Since extreme
events are climate-driven and hence respond to climatic variables, and given their enormous
destructive impacts, it is beneficial to keep track of these events with a view to forecast their
occurrence and hopefully mitigate or avoid their negative impacts. Also, knowledge on the
nature and frequency of climate extreme eventsis essential to develop adaptive measures e.g.
for local physical planning, human health, energy production and consumption, nature
protection, agriculture, forestry, insurance industry and tourism.
In Nigeria, as in many other countries, climate extremes are known to have caused different
levelsof destruction and constitute a significant amount of hazard related tofloods, dry spells,
heat waves, wind and rain storms, etc(NIMET, 2010). Odjugo (2010) notes that the frequency
and magnitude of climateextreme events such as wind and rainstorms havenot only increased,
but have also killed more people and destroyed property worth trillions of naira in Nigeria
between 1992 and 2007. The current paper offers a brief review of impacts of some climate
and weather extreme eventssuch as dry spells, heat wavesand extreme rainfall/floodeventsin
Nigeria. The spatial occurrence and impact of dry spell and rainfall in agricultural and
hydrological sectors are particularly areexplored.
Nigeria: Geography and Climate Extreme Events.
Nigeria is found in the tropics, where the climate is seasonally damp and very humid and is
affected by four climate types; these climate types are distinguishableas one moves from the
southern to the northern part of the country through Nigeria's middle belt. Given the
prevailing climate, averagedaily temperatureranges within the north and south are small but
differ when the two regions are compared. Being in the humid tropical zone, Nigeria receives
mean annual total rainfall in excess of 2000mm. However, due to change in climate attributed
to anthropogenic sources coupled with climate variability, extreme climate events are
becoming common in different parts of the country in form of floods, heat waves, dry spells
and rain storms. To be sure, changes in average climate conditions can have long-term
consequences but increases in occurrence and intensity of climate extremes are commonly a
more immediate threat. Climate extremes include both extreme weather events and extreme
climate events. An extreme weather events is a single event, for instance wind storms, storm
surges, and flash floods. A number of weather events over a certain period of time that create
an average which itself is extreme, is called an extreme climate event. Examples are heat
waves, cold spells, dry spells and wet spells. The probability of climate extremes can change
both as an effect of changes in average climate conditions and as a result of increased
variability. Climate extremes are commonly defined by statistical measures, and an extreme
weather event would normally be as rare as or rarer than the 10th or 90th percentile. By this
definition, the characteristics of what is called extreme weather will vary from place to place.
Other measures that are used in identifying climate extreme eventsare specific thresholds, e.g.
25 m/s for wind storms, and a daily minimum temperature above 20
o
C for tropical nights.
Impact indices can also contain cumulative temperature sums (degree-days), or more process
based model descriptions, e.g. four consecutive days in a row with a daily mean temperature
above 5
o
C to calculate the onset of vegetation period. In quantifying heat waves as a climate
extreme event, temperature threshold is commonly used to characterize the magnitude and
pattern of its occurrence. Characterizing some climate extreme events may demand relatively
more complex approaches. For instance, to identify rainfall extreme events where most of the
rain may be concentrated in a few heavy falls and small shifts in the large-scale weather
patterns from year to year may need more complex techniques to interpret the variation and
its extremes (see Easterling, et al, 2000: 2069, Sillman, 2005)
Past Observations and Future Projectionsof Extreme Climate Events in Nigeria:
The Nigeria Climate Review Bulletin, a publication of Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET), is
an authoritative source of information on contemporary climate over Nigeria. It is based on
empirical observations and data collected from NIMETs network of meteorological stations
spread across Nigeria. NIMET has observed that climate extreme events such as heat waves, dry
spells, floods including flash floodsarebeing experienced in Nigeria and arelikely to continue in
the near future (NIMET, 2010). According to NIMET, mean temperature analysis over Nigeria
shows that 2010 was warmer than the 1971-2000 normal and slightly warmer than the year
2009, causing notable dry spells and heat waves especially in the northern region. It was further
observed that almost all parts of the country had mean temperatures higher than the 1971-
2000 normal except a few axes in the central and south east areas which had normal mean
temperatures (NIMET, 2010). Also, available climatological evidence reveals increasing
temperature and decreasing rainfall amount and duration in Nigeria between 1901 and 2005
(NIMET, 2010). While rainfall amount is generally decreasing in Nigeria, the coastal region of
the country has beenexperiencing slightly increasing amount of rainfall since theearly 1970s. A
climatological shift is also seen in a change in theshort-dry-season popularlyknown as August
break which is currently being experienced more in the month of July as against August
(Odjugo, 2010). All of these are climate change signals. Following these shifts in climate are
notable changes in the frequency and character of climate extreme events such as dry spells
and floods including flash floods in Nigeria. Dry spells occur mainly in the dry season when
temperatures are high. Record data shows that daily mean temperatures are higher in the
northern part of Nigeria-with a semi arid climate-than in the southern part with more humid
and relatively cool climate. The dry spell witnessed in 2010 occurred during the peak of dry
season (high temperatures). Floods on the other hand occur during the wet season. Owing to
differences in climate within the different regions in Nigeria, the impacts of these climate
extremes are local. For example, although the impacts of the heat wave that hit the country in
2010 was significant in terms of the number of people and vegetation affected, its spatial
spread was limited to the North west zone with the highest regional mean temperatures for
that period. In a similar vein, while flood has affected most parts of the country owing to
topographical and drainage pattern of the country, its impacts has been felt more in the south
with historicallyexcess precipitation(NIMET, 2010).
Sector-Specific Concerns
Agriculture
Agricultural impact of heat waves and rainfall extremes are usually linked to availability of
moisture for plants and the rate of evapotranspiration. Also, issues of storage have become
important in less developed countries where traditional storage systems are used for storing
harvested agricultural produce. Climate extreme events in terms of rainfall and heat waves or
dry spells may mean that some places experience increased mean temperature, dryness or
more rainfall amount. These events have their implications for crops health and survival, pests
and hence agriculture in general. For instance, in Nigeria, the northern states of Borno and
Yobe experienceda reduction in rainfall amount mainly in August which has consistently ledto
a drop in millet, sorghum and cowpea production by about 10%as reportedby (NIMET, 2010).
Reports also indicate that some parts of the country-Sokoto, Kebbi and Jigawa states- had a
reduction in rice production by 50%due to excessive flooding in September as compared to the
same period in 2009 (FEWSNET 2010). In the south, where higher yields were seen in crops
such as yams, maize and cassava, high relative humidity delayed maize and cassava drying
which led to losses. Fishing activities were affected particularly in the coastal states of Bayelsa
and Rivers due to rise in water levels and flooding caused by above normal rainfall. Moreover,
the frequent droughts and lesser rains have started shortening the growing season thereby
causing crops failure and food shortage. It has been shown that drought; desert encroachment
and coastal inundation have started affecting the countrys ecosystem leading to ecological
destabilization due to climate change impact in the semi-arid region of Northern Nigeria (Ayuba
et al. 2007).
Hydrology:
For many parts of the world, the impact of climate change and the resulting pattern of extreme
events have been experienced through changes to the hydrological cycle including freshwater
availability. Climate change impact on the hydrological cycle has long been identified by climate
scientists (Trenberth et al., 2007; Bates et al., 2008). Due to the strategic role of the
hydrological cycle and its intersection with many other cycles and systems, a change in the
hydrological cycle come with far reaching primary and secondary impacts, affecting both
physical and biological systems includingagriculture, etc. There is considerable evidence that
the global hydrological cycle is already responding to the observed warming over recent
decades (Bates et al.,2008), through increased atmospheric water vapor content, changing
patterns of precipitation, reduced snow and ice cover and changes to soil moisture and
runoff. In Nigeria, thehydrological impacts of climate change and related extreme events have
added to the complex and interlocking set of challenges to cope with. In 2013 alone, more than
normal precipitation in major parts of the country led to significant sea level rise which in turn
resulted in river flooding causingloss of lives and properties. Also, a significant part of most of
the coastal states such as Delta, Rivers and Bayelsawere flooded(NIMET, 2012). In 2012, many
rivers including River Niger flooded its banks causing enormous agricultural damageto adjacent
areas. On the other hand, while the rainfall pattern associated with current climate change and
extreme events ensure more than normal rainfall especially in the southern part of Nigeria,
there is a decreasing and erratic pattern of rainfall that has produced a minimal recharge of
groundwater resources, wells, lakes and rivers in most parts of the northern Nigeria.
Consequently, many rivers have been reported to have dried up or are becoming more
seasonally navigablegiven acute shortage in the volume of water in such rivers. Lake Chad, for
instance, has shrunk in areal size (Odjugo, 2007). Such changes in the countrys hydrological
system have ramifications for soil moisture, vegetation, crops and availability of fresh water
including hygiene and disease. Reduced rainfall coupled with temperature has also sustained
observed heat waves in the country.
Adaptation Measures:
Adaptation is the process of responding or adjusting to actual and potential impacts of changing
climate conditions in ways that moderate harm or take advantage of any positive opportunities
that such changes may afford (Ozor et al, 2012). It also includes policies and measures to
reduce exposure to climate variability and extremes and the strengthening of existing capacity
to respond to change. Adaptation requires changes in knowledge, attitudes, resilience
capacities, and skills of the people. Especially at the global scale, mitigation and adaption to
climate change impacts are the two broad approaches to combat climate change and its
associated impacts. But given the fact that mitigation efforts are slow to yield results due to
complex processes involved in halting anthropogenic climate-changing activities already in
motion and not-too-strong commitments from highly industrialized nations (who account for a
substantial emission of green house gases) to mitigation initiatives, it appears adaptation rather
than mitigation efforts holds more hope for combating climate change phenomenon, at least in
the short run..
Typically, devising adaptation and mitigation measures for climate change and extreme events
involves mainstreaming up-to-date scientific understanding of climate change phenomenon
and in-depth environmental and climatological knowledge of thearea in question. This ensures
that adaptation measures are effectively targeted at climate change impacts and the
trajectories such changes follow. One of the problems confronting climate change adaptation
efforts in Nigeria is lack of reliable data on the complex arteries through which a changing
climate generates observed impacts on specific aspects of the environment and economy.
Although such data is sufficiently available at the global scale, it needs to be downscaled to
national or local levels if they will be effective in crafting local adaptation strategies. Also, given
the fact that not all changes and environmental challenges are climate driven, and climate
change occurs together with changes in other environmental and economic domains, designing
an effective adaptation response will involve a collation of data from multiple sources and an
integrated analysis of such data. Such level of data is not sufficiently available to enable a
robust climate change policy, program and action response to climate extreme events in
Nigeria.
Recent studies have however shown that, even if there is little coming from the national
government in terms of combating climate change and its impacts, individuals and
organizationshave responded to observed changes occasioned by climate change. For instance,
Ozor et al (2012) identifymany coping strategies adopted by farmers in response to changing
climate. These strategies range from a shift in planting season, change of crop types to
cultivation of more lands and change from crop production to livestock farming (see Table1). It
is worthy of note
that most of these
efforts and strategies
are self- rather than
government driven,
underscoring the
limited impact of
national and local
governments in
ensuring effective
adaptive techniques
to climate change
impacts on
agriculture in
Nigeria. Non-
governmental
organizations, most
of whom with
environmental
mandate, and
individual academics
have also
contributed to
efforts in climate
change adaptation.
Table1. (Adaptive Agricultural Techniques in Response to Climate Change): Source: Ozor et al, (2012)
Althoughthese efforts have been helpful especially at the grass root level, theyare typically on
awareness campaigns and sensitization programs on the possible impacts of climate change
and much less on developing adaptive capacities in the areas concerned. In terms of risks and
opportunities, it is clear that millions of families and individuals are already suffering the impact
of a drying climate especially in the north with occasional heat waves as a consequence and
above average precipitation in the south leading to disastrous floodswith obvious implications
for agriculture. Opportunities that could have been created by heavier rainfall in the south by a
relatively longer planting season and better harvest has been discounted by loss of harvested
produce owing to lack of storage facilities in a very humid southern climate. As predicted by
IPCC (2001), Africa including Nigeria is currently experiencing adverse impacts of climate
change in almost all environmental aspects and economic sectors but especially in the agro-
and ecologically sensitivesectors. Regrettably, there is no adequate technical manpower to tap
the corresponding opportunities resulting from climate change such as in the energy and other
economic sectors.
Conclusion:
The fact that climate change and associated extreme events are a global phenomenon means
that most, if not all, of the impacts will also be global. In Nigeria, these impacts are already
visible. Givenaless than satisfactory result from global mitigation efforts so far, it appears any
hope of surviving climate change resides more with adaptation initiatives, at least in the short
run. Coordinated global efforts are indispensible in this regard. Also, since global climate is an
aggregate of local climates, it is plausible to also seek climate change solutions at the local level
cooperatively with international efforts. Given the ravaging poverty in Nigeria and the number
of persons who are agro-based coupled with the potential agricultural sector holds to improve
the well being of the populace, the need to respond to actual and potential impacts of climate
change and extreme events on the agricultural sector becomes even more compelling.
Specifically, it is recommended that:
The impacts of climate change and extreme events on agriculture and indeed other
sectors at both local and national levels are assessed and addressed. This is plausible
since current global climate and its impacts are a result of a combined anthropogenic
climate-changing activities from diverse local sources, hence solution could as well be
sought cooperatively at the local scale, besides coordinated international efforts
Robust data collection and analysis methods should be devised in collecting up-to-date
local climate information to enable reliable climate events forecasts and analysis. Using
better climate models at finer temporal and spatial resolutions is advocated for
developing effective adaptation response.
Given the fact that climate events are national and trans-sectoral or even global,
national and local government structures must get interested in mobilizing support
from different sectors of the country to champion cutting edge research in local climate
science and create awareness of possible climate related hazards and ways of
preventing and/or mitigating some of them.
Relevant climate friendly policies should bedeveloped and their enforcement ensured
to protect further climate deterioration and possibly reverse current climate-induced
damages.
Identified vulnerable groups/areas must be assisted and adequate precautionary
measures taken to ensure zero loss or minimal damage.
.
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