Development of a Heat Adaptation Plan for Louisville:

Project Update

Brian Stone & Jason Vargo
Urban Climate Lab
Georgia Institute of Technology
www.urbanclimate.gatech.edu
twitter.com/urbanclimatelab

Overview
What is an urban heat island?

Extreme heat and health

Louisville heat adaptation study and plan

Initial findings




N
A
S
A

Urban temperature anomaly

Drivers of the urban heat island

1. Loss of natural vegetation
2. Replacement of vegetation
with impervious materials
3. Waste heat from vehicles, industry,
building air conditioning
4. Trapping of heat by
building canyons
How rapidly are cities warming?
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rural areas have warmed by about 1.5
O
F over 50 years
urban areas are about 1.5
O
F warmer than rural areas
most of the temperature anomaly in cities is
attributable to heat island effect
urban areas are warming more rapidly
over time than rural areas
global vs. urban rates of warming (F/decade): 1961-2010
Urban climate change rankings
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80
NEW ORLEANS
SEATTLE
HARTFORD
CHARLOTTE
BOISE
NEW YORK
ST LOUIS
PHILADELPHIA
MINNEAPOLIS
EL PASO
ALBUQUERQUE
BATON ROUGE
WASHINGTON DC
RICHMOND
PORTLAND
TOLEDO
OKLAHOMA CITY
SYRACUSE
LAS VEGAS
INDIANAPOLIS
DETROIT
GREENSBORO
ATLANTA
PHOENIX
LOUISVILLE
Temperature
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Warming per decade in excess of rural trend (F)
warming in excess of rural trend (F/decade)
Urban warming rankings
heat waves in US cities are hotter, longer,
more frequent, and earlier in the year
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Tree canopy cover by city
National Land Cover Database, 2001
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Atlanta Chattanooga Nashville Charlotte Cincinnati Louisville
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Metropolitan Area City
1. Where is Louisvilles heat island most intense? How do large sites
influence the regions heat island?

2. What is the distribution of different classes of land cover throughout
Jefferson County?

3. How many heat-related illnesses are likely occurring each year?
What neighborhoods are most vulnerable to heat-related illness?

4. How would tree planting, green roofs, and the widespread use
use of cool materials influence air temperatures and reduce
heat-related illness?

5. What areas in the region should be prioritized for increased
green and cool infrastructure?





Questions Addressed by Study
Surface temperatures by urban neighborhood: July 5, 2010
Surface temperature hotspots
Orange cells >= 93.6F (90
th
percentile or greater)
Red cells >= 100F
Airport
Ford Assembly
Plant
Downtown
GE Plant
Ford Truck
Plant
Shelbyville Mall
26 cells exhibit average temperatures in excess of 100F significant hotspots are highlighted
Downtown hotspots
*Average cell temperature: 100.8F
MinT = 95.1F
MaxT = 108.7F
*
* denotes hottest cell in cluster
Airport & Ford Assembly Plant
hotspots
*Average cell temperature: 104.9F
MinT = 93.8F
MaxT = 115.4F
*
GE Plant hotspots
*Average cell temperature: 103.1F
MinT = 87.9F
MaxT = 118.1F
*
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%
Ford Truck Plant
Ford Assembly
Downtown
Airport
GE Plant
Other
Contribution of hotspot to regional surface heat island
Land cover assessment
Galt House
University of Louisville
Percentage of tree canopy cover
Percentage of grass cover
Percentage of street paving
Percentage of building rooftop
Urban heat management scenarios
1. Increase tree canopy cover and green roofs
2. Increase reflectivity of streets and building roofs
3. Increase green cover and cool materials (strategies 1 & 2 combined)
4. Reductions in waste heat emissions
5. All strategies combined (strategies 1, 2, & 4 combined)
GREEN strategies: Tree planting & green roofs
COOL strategies: Increased reflectivity of streets and building roofs
Combined strategies: Increased green and cool materials
no change
+ 0.10 F
- 0.1 F
- 0.9 F
- 1.25 F
- 1.80 F
Atlanta region: 2050
Climate, Urban Land use, and Excess mortality (CULE) study:
Temperature change from trees and green roofs
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
PHX
PHL
ATL
2010 BAU 2050 ALL 2050
Annual heat-related mortality by scenario
0 - 0.3
0.3 0.5
0.5 0.8
0.8 1.3
1.3 2.4
Avoided deaths per
100,000 population
2050 avoided mortality in Atlanta Region
through GREEN and COOL strategies
Estimating tree planting sites
Method adapted from: Wu et al. 2008 & Texas Trees Foundation
Potential tree planting sites
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Large Trees Medium Trees Small Trees Total
Potential tree planting
Sites in Louisville Metro
area
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Thanks!