52 Structural Condition Models For Sewer Pipeline

1
Structural Condition Models for Sewer Pipeline

Fazal Chughtai
1
and Tarek Zayed
2
1
Student Member ASCE, Graduate Student, Department of Building, Civil and
Environmental Engineering, Concordia University, Montreal, PQ, Canada; Email:
frmazhar@hotmail.com
2
Assistant Professor, Department of Building, Civil and Environmental Engineering,
Concordia University, Montreal, PQ, Canada; Email: zayed@encs.concordia.ca
Abstract
Proper management of sewer pipeline networks involves fulfillment of many
technical requirements under economic constraints. Therefore, cost effective solutions
are required to assist municipal engineers in prioritizing maintenance and
rehabilitation needs. This demands a systematic approach to condition assessment of
rapidly deteriorating sewers. Performance evaluation of sewers through random
inspections is expensive. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop a proactive
sewer pipeline condition prediction methodology. This paper presents a method for
assessing a sewers structural condition by utilizing general pipeline inventory data.
Based on historic condition assessment data, condition prediction models for sewers
are developed using multiple regression technique. The final outcome of these models
produces most likely condition rating of pipes, which will assist municipal agencies
in prioritizing pipe inspection and rehabilitation to critical sewers.
Introduction
The condition of underground sewer infrastructure across North America has been
deteriorating day by day. The maintenance and rehabilitation of aging sewers have
become an overburden in terms of budget allocation and investment planning for
municipalities. Multiple objectives may exist for planning budget allocation that
could be dependent upon certain constraints and available resources. This makes the
task of planning, prioritizing and allocating funds a complex exercise (Ruwanpura et
al. 2004).
Investment in sewer rehabilitation must be based on inspection and evaluation of
sewer condition. However, random inspection of sewers is extremely expensive.
Therefore, due to budget constraints, only 22% of Canadian municipalities have a
complete condition assessment program (Rahman et al. 2004). Thus, it is important to
prioritize inspections to those sewers which are more vulnerable to deterioration
phenomena and have higher risk of collapse for proactive sewer rehabilitation
planning.
There are two main avenues of improvement in sewer rehabilitation planning
(Ariaratnam et al 2001):
Pipelines 2007: Advances and Experiences with Trenchless Pipeline Projects 2007 ASCE
Copyright ASCE 2007 Pipelines 2007
Downloaded 13 Sep 2011 to 132.205.59.19. Redistribution subject to ASCE license or copyright. Visithttp://www.ascelibrary.org
2
1) Collection and storage of adequate inspection information regarding current
condition of sewer system
2) Ability to predict sewer deficiency prior to failure in order to facilitate timely
sewer inspection and repair
Therefore, predicting structural condition of sewers should be the first consideration
of municipal managers in order to prioritize detailed inspections. In this context,
current paper describes the development of an improved methodology for analyzing
and interpreting historical sewer data. The methodology involves the use of this data
in developing multiple regression models to predict the existing condition rating of
sewers. The application of these multiple regression models would provide decision
makers with a means to prioritize inspections of sewers, which have higher risk of
failure.
Previous Decision Support Tools for Sewer Condition Assessment
There are numerous documented studies that focus on various aspects of drainage
systems including different methodological approaches to predict the condition of
drainage pipes (Ruwanpura et al. 2004). In terms of objectives, these studies can be
categorized into two classes. The first approach is to help municipal engineers in
preventing inadequate sewer inspections through developing automated condition
assessment techniques. The second strategy is to develop proactive tools for
prioritizing inspections to critical sewers.
There are many examples of studies for developing automated systems for the
interpretation of sewer inspection data. Moselhi et al (2000) described image analysis
and pattern recognition techniques of sewer inspection, based on neural network
analysis of digitized video images. The neural network analysis technique was found
helpful in identifying four categories of sewer defects: cracks, joint displacements,
reduction of cross-sectional area, and spalling. Chae at al (2001) developed an
automated sewer inspection data interpretation system. Artificial neural networks
were used to recognize various types of defects in sewers through optical data
obtained from inspection with Sewer Scanner and Evaluation Technology (SSET).
Sinha et al (2006) presented an algorithm for the automated analysis of scanned
underground pipe images. The algorithm consisted of image pre-processing followed
by a sequence of morphological operations for the classification of different sewer
defects: cracks, holes, joints, laterals, and collapsed surfaces.
The other approach is to predict a sewers existing condition prior to its detailed
inspection for selective, cost effective sewer inspection. Hasegawa et al. (1999)
developed a method for condition prediction of sewers on the knowledge of pipe
material, length, diameter and other characteristics. However, it was concluded that
the method could not evaluate sewers condition effectively. Ariaratnam et al (2001)
developed logistic regression model for condition evaluation of sewers. The model
was developed through historical data based upon factors; such as, pipe age, diameter,
material, waste type and depth. Another approach for condition assessment of large
3
sewers was developed by assessing the impact of different factors; such as location,
size, burial depth, functionality etc., on sewers (McDonald et al 2001). Similarly,
Baur et al (2002) developed a methodology of forecasting condition of sewers by
using transition curves. These transition curves were developed through the historical
condition assessment data. Sewers characteristics; such as, material, period of
construction, location were used to define the existing condition of sewers for
scheduling detailed inspection. Yan et al (2003) proposed a fuzzy set theory based
approach for a pipes condition assessment. Various linguistic factors: soil condition,
surroundings, etc, were transformed through fuzzy theory into numerical format for
assessing their impacts on pipes. Ruwanpura et al (2004) used rule based simulation
methodology to predict condition rating of sewers. The model predicted the condition
rating of pipe based on age, material and length of pipe. Najafi et al (2005) developed
an artificial neural network model for predicting the condition of sewers based on
historical data.
The above mentioned approaches tend to predict existing condition of sewers for
prioritizing detailed inspections. This paper suggests a simple and easy to use
approach towards condition prediction of sewers. The paper describes the
development of multiple regression models in this regard. These models will provide
adequate knowledge about condition of sewers in order for municipal agencies to
optimize cost of sewer inspection.
Sewer Pipe Deterioration
Although pipelines are designed for a particular lifespan under standard operating
condition, their deterioration never follows a set pattern (Najafi et al 2005). Pipe
deterioration is a very complex process and related to various pipe characteristics
such as pipe material, period of construction, location, diameter and gradient (Yan et
al 2003). In general, these pipe characteristics or factors can be divided into three
categories; physical, operational and environmental. Table 1 shows the subdivision of
these factors into further categories. It also explains how these factors contribute in
pipeline deterioration phenomena.
Physical factors comprise general pipe characteristics such as length, diameter etc.
While operational factors deal with flow performance in which they adapt operational
and maintenance strategies. The third category is related to certain environmental
factors directly influencing a pipes criticality and deterioration. These factors include
type of surrounding soil, traffic volume above pipe, etc.
Data Collection and Variables Selection
The effectiveness of condition rating regression model depends upon the quality of
collected data and selection of predictors. Data are collected from two municipalities;
Pierrefonds (Quebec, Canada) and Niagara Falls (Ontario, Canada). The collected
data included general pipeline inventory record, AutoCAD drawings and CCTV
inspection reports. One of the major problems in the preliminary analysis of data is
4
that both municipalities have adapted different sewer pipeline condition grading
systems. Data from Niagara Falls consist of WRc (Water Research Centre UK)
classification system, while the other data set is based on CERIU (Centre for
Expertise and Research on Infrastructures in Urban Areas, Canada) classification
system. As WRc classification system is known as the Embryo Codes for world
wide sewer rehabilitation industry (Thornhill et. al 2005), all data from Pierrefonds
are converted into WRc classification system for generalizing the model building
approach.
Table 1: Factors that Contribute to Sewer Pipeline Deterioration
Factors Explanation
Pipe Length
Pipe in longer length and having greater length to diameter
ratio are more likely to suffer from bending stresses
Pipe Diameter Small diameter pipes are more susceptible to beam failure
Pipe Material
Pipes manufactured with different materials show different
failure patrons.
Age
More probability of collapse for aged pipes
Average Depth
If the depth is very low, the pipe is susceptible to surface live
load. If depth is high, the pipe is susceptible to overburden.
Moderate depths increase the life of sewers
P
h
y
s
i
c
a
l
Pipe Gradient
Steeper slopes of pipe cause high flow velocity which
increases erosion phenomena
Infiltration/
Exfiltration
Infiltration and exfiltration wash soil particles which reduces
the soil support along the pipe
O
p
e
r
a
t
i
o
n
a
l
M & R
Strategies
Good maintenance and repair strategies increase the service
life of sewers
Type of waste
Different types of waste react with different pipe materials in
a different manner causing pipe erosion
Type of Soil
Different types of soils provide side supports to pipes
according to their own physical and chemical properties
Bedding
Conditions
The chance of pipe failure increases with improper bedding
condition of pipes
Frost Factor
The load on buried sewers increases due to additional frost
load in winter
Other Utilities
Proximity of other underground installations increases the
criticality of a sewer
E
n
v
i
r
o
n
m
e
n
t
a
l
Traffic Volume
The bending stresses in the pipe increase with the increase in
live load above pipe
The next step was data sorting for selection of input variables. These variables which
have maximum historical information are selected for further model development.
5
The predictors chosen are pipe material, pipe material class, diameter, length, age,
depth, bedding material class and street categories. The information collected
regarding bedding material class and street category is described in a generalize
manner in order to facilitate regression model application.
Table 2: Bedding Material Classes as per BRE and OPSD Standards and their
transformation weights for model development (Adapted from Perkins, 1974 and
Zhao et al 2001)
Bedding Factor B
f
Bedding
Class
Description
BRE OPSD
Model
Input
Weights
Reinforced Concrete Cradle or Arch 3.4
A
Plain Concrete Cradle or Arch 2.6
2.8 4
B Well Compacted Granular Material 1.9 1.9 3
C Well Compacted Backfill 1.5 1.5 2
D Flat Sub Grade 1.1 -- 1
Others Cement Stabilized Material 2.6 to 3.4 -- ----
Five different types of bedding material have been specified by Building Research
Establishment (BRE) UK, which are also acceptable in USA (Perkins, 1975). In
Ontario, Canada, OPSD (Ontario Provincial Standard Drawings) defines four classes
of bedding material (Zhao et al 2001). These classes have been defined on the bases
of bedding factor B
f
. In general, the bedding factor B
f
is defined as (Zhao et al 2001):
eb
S
W
f
B = ----------------------- Equation 1
Where, W is calculated external load and
eb
S is 3 edge bearing strength.
The bedding factors for specific classes in both classification systems have been
shown in Table 2 where the input weights are also shown. The weights have been
allotted according to material class.
Not only is the bedding factor redefined, but also is the average annual daily traffic
(AADT) data. The AADT data depends upon location of streets and other factors.
Therefore, instead of using the locally available AADT data (as shown in table 3), the
local streets are categorized according to American Society of Civil Engineers
(ASCE) Classification. These classifications along with their assigned input weights
for model development are shown in Table 3. The AADT data is based on Niagara
Falls classification.
Design and Diagnostics of Structural Condition Models
In linear regression models, a linear relationship is assumed between the response
variable (Y) and the several independent variables (X1, X2, X3...). The major point in
these models is that the combined effect of all variables on the dependent variable is
investigated rather than individual relations between dependent and independent
6
variables (Dikmen et al 2005). However, linear regression model includes not only
first order models in predictor variables but more complex models as well.
Consequently, model with transformed variables or with different interaction terms
should be considered as linear regression models due to their respective linear
parameters (Kutner et al 2005). Therefore, different consideration for different
functional forms of predictors in regression model is the first key step in model
development.
Table 3: Transformation of Traffic Data into ASCE 1990 Urban Street Classification
System and Model Input Weights
ASCE
Classification
Description
Approximate AADT
(Niagara Falls)
Input Weight
for Model
1 Arterial 10,000 - 12,500 4
2 Collector 7,500 - 10,000 3
3 Sub-collector 5,000 - 7,500 2
4 Access < 5,000 1
Initially, in order to check possible interactions and multicolinearities among
variables, matrix plots are developed for the input data. When two predictive
variables in a regression model are highly correlated, they both convey essentially the
same information. Therefore, their interactions and relationships among themselves
have to be examined carefully. In the process, if matrix plot shows some possible
interactions, the decision to include or exclude variables from the model is made
through best subset analysis. Figure 1 shows an example of the best subset analysis
for one trial.
In Figure 1, it is clear that the model with higher R
2
, R
2
-adjusted, lower S, and closer
C
p
to number of variables is the most appropriate model. Where, S is the standard
deviation of residuals. In this case, the variable pipe depth should be excluded from
the model (C
p
= 6.0 & S = 0.83087). After diagnosing correlation, the developed
models are checked for their statistical validity. The main diagnostics in this regard
are R
2
, P(F), P(t), residual diagnostics, and LOF. The R
2
(co-efficient of multiple
determination) measures the proportional variation in structural condition explained
by sewers attributes; age, diameter, material, length etc. The results shown in Table 4
illustrate that 72% to 82% of the total variability in structural condition can be
explained through the developed regression equations. The R
2
-adjusted accounts for
the number of predictors in the model. Both values indicate that the model fits the
data well.
To determine P(F) for the whole model, a hypothesis test is carried out. The null
hypothesis (H
0
) assumes that all regression coefficients,
0
,
1
p-
1
are zero i.e.
0
=
1
= p-
1
= 0. The alternate hypothesis (H
a
) assumes that not all of them equal to zero.
Based on the Minitabs output the p-values for the test are 0.000 for all chosen
models (Table 4). This means that null hypothesis is rejected. Similarly, to determine
the validity of regression coefficient individually, t-tests are performed separately
for the
0
,
1
p-
1
. In case of
0
, the null hypothesis (H
0
) of t-test assumes that
0
=
7
0; while alternative hypothesis (H
a
) assumes that
0
0. Similarly, the other null
hypothesis assumes that
1
= 0 and vise versa. The results of these tests, for all the
three models, shown in table 4, indicate that the p-value for intercept is 0.000, 0.041
& 0.003, respectively. As a result, alternative hypothesis is accepted. Note that for
performing F and t tests, the confidence interval is assumed to be 0.05; that means
that null hypothesis can be accepted if the p-value is equal to or greater than 0.05.
Figure 1: An Example of Best Subset Analysis for a Trial Model
Similar procedure is performed to check the validity of other regression coefficients
associated to each predictor in all regression models. The overall results of t- test are
found satisfactory. Some of the t-test results shown in the Table 4 have p values
greater than (0.05). This indicates that there could be a weak evidence of null
hypothesis for that particular coefficient. However, due to large number of predictors
in models and due to satisfactory results of other statistical diagnostics, these results
are concluded as acceptable.
The next step is to check the residual diagnostics. Figure 2 shows an example of
residual plots for a trial model. The normal probability plot shows that there could be
a possibility of outliers in the data. After a logically based reexamination of data, it is
concluded that the points are not outliers and these scenarios could exist. Therefore,
the possibilities of outliers are rejected.
Figure 2 also shows the fitted value plot for the model under consideration. In ideal
scenario, constant data would be distributed evenly across the plot. That would show
the consistent variance across the fitted value range. However, figure 2 shows
diagonal bands across the centre line. The reasons for these types of results could be
due to:
Important variable(s) might be omitted from the model (Kutner et al 2005)
Data variability issues: data composed of integer variables (Anderson et al
2005)
8
The careful examination of data in hand shows that both the abovementioned
possibilities exist in this case. Some of the important variables which could have a
strong effect on the existing pipe condition could be missing. For example, type of
soil, maintenance and repair history, infiltration etc are important parameters, which
affects the existing pipe conditions directly. As information regarding these kinds of
parameters is not available; studying the effect of these parameters on the pipe
condition is recommended for future research. Data variability could be explained in
the case under consideration as the model has integer predictors; concrete class,
bedding class factor and street categories. Therefore, the discrete values of these
predictors could cause the problem of unequal variance. Consequently, the results are
concluded as satisfactory.
Table 4: Summary of Statistical Test Results for Selected Models
The developed models are further investigated through statistical measures such as
Durbin-Watson test for auto-correlation and lack of fit (LOF). The Durbin-Watson
test considers the null hypothesis (H
0
) that there would not be any auto correlation
among predictors. The alternative hypothesis (H
a
) considers that there is a
significance of auto correlation among the predictors. The results shown in Table 4
indicate that H
a
should be rejected in case of PVC model, and the test is inconclusive
in case of asbestos cement model. The results of concrete model indicate that there
could be an evidence of H
a
. However, this test is more conclusive for maximum of
five predictors; so the results shown for concrete pipe model are not accurate, because
in this case the predictors are 6.
The results of LOF test indicate that there are not much replications available to
perform the routine pure error test for concrete and PVC models. Therefore, an
approximate lack of fit data subsetting test, developed by Minitab statistical
software, is performed on these models. The null hypothesis H
0
is that model fits the
data, and alternative hypothesis H
a
is that model does not fit data. The decision
P (t)
P (F)
Lack of Fit
Model R
2
(%)
R
2
(Adj.)
(%)
P (F)
0
Durbin-
Watson
Statistics
P
u
r
e
E
r
r
o
r
D
a
t
a
S
u
b
-
s
e
t
t
i
n
g
Concrete
Pipes
72.7 70.5 0.000 0.000 0.064 0.000 0.010 0.000 0.014 0.000
0..95
D<d
L
-
0.0
49
Asbestos
Cement
Pipes
82.4 78.3 0.000 0.041 0.001 0.034 0.093 0.085 -- --
1.43
d
L
D
d
U
0.8
74
0.1
PVC
Pipes
81.8 78.6 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.008 0.021 0.000 0.000 --
1.82
D > d
U
--
0.0
56
9
criterion in case of data subsetting test is that p-value should be equal or greater to
0.01 for an ideal fit model i.e. for the significance of null hypothesis. Table 4 shows a
significance of Ha; however, this test is an approximation of pure error test and these
models were giving satisfactory results for other statistical diagnostics. Therefore, the
models are accepted on the basis of their overall performance of all necessary
statistical diagnostics. In case of asbestos cement model, the lack of fit test results for
pure error and data subsetting tests are found satisfactory.
Figure 2: Normal Probability of Residuals and Residual vs. Fitted Value Plots for a
Trial Model
After all statistical diagnostics the three models selected for validation are as follows:
Concrete Pipe Structural Condition Prediction Model
Factor Bedding Factor Bedding
Depth Log
Class Concrete
Age Log
Depth Log
Category Street
e
Length
Diameter Log
Grade Condition Structural
_
1
75 . 5
_
10
92 . 6
_
10
6 . 1
10
22 . 3
_
00681 . 0
10
592 . 0 94 . 3
_ _
1
+
+ =
-------------------- Equation 2
Asbestos Cement Pipe Structural Condition Prediction Model
1 . 0
8 . 14 _ _ 742 . 0
207 . 0
10
542 9 . 20
2
) _ _ (
Diameter Class Cement Asbestos
Age
Length
Depth Log

+ + =
-------------------- Equation 3
PVC Pipe Structural Condition Prediction Model
4
) (
3 . 0
) ( 000013 . 0 _ 0405 . 0 _ 0302 . 0
01 . 0
89 . 1 00642 . 0 25 . 2
_ _
) 1 . 0 (
Depth Diameter Category Street Factor Bedding
Length Age

=
-------------------- Equation 4
The values of structural condition grades are according to WRc classification system.
The structural condition grading varies from 1 to 5 as per WRc protocols; where 1 is
10
for a pipe in excellent condition and grade 5 means that collapse for the pipe is
imminent.
Conclusions:
A methodology for predicting a sewers structural condition information through the
use of historical data is proposed. To assess and predict structural condition of
existing buried sewers, multiple regression technique is used. Three different
regression models are designed for three different sewer pipe materials: concrete,
asbestos cement, and PVC. Various forms of variables are experimented during the
design procedure and the best possible scenario is selected for further validation. The
selected models are validated through all possible measures to ensure their
appropriateness.
It is observed that the selected predictor variables for condition rating model are not
enough to completely explain the variation in structural condition of sewers.
Therefore, it is recommended that future research should be performed in expanding
the model for other pipe attributes, which contributes to sewers deterioration. The
influence of factors such as infiltration, soil condition, and maintenance and repair
history, on a sewers structural condition should be thoroughly investigated. It is
further recommended that the model should also be expanded to include other sewer
pipe materials; such as clay and bricks sewers etc., to facilitate municipal managers.
It is concluded that the developed technique will assist decision makers in scheduling
and prioritizing sewer inspection. Thus, this technique will be helpful in minimizing
the cost of random sewer inspection.
References:
American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), (1990), Residential Streets, Second
Edition, ASCE, National Association of Home Builders of the United states,
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI) Publication
Anderson, M & Davenport, N, (2005), A Rural Transit Asset Management System,
University Transportation Centre of Alabama Report 04401, USA
Ariaratnam, S, El-Assaly, A & Yang, Y, (2001), Assessment of Infrastructure
Inspection Needs using Logistic Models, ASCE Journal of Infrastructure
Systems, Volume 7, No 4, December 2001
Barqawi, H, (2006), Condition Rating Models for Underground Infrastructure:
Sustainable Water Mains, Masters Thesis, Concordia University, Montreal
Baur, R & Herz, R, (2002), Selective Inspection Planning with Ageing Forecast for
Sewer Types, International Water Association (IWA) Journal of Water
Science and Technology, Volume 46, No 6-7, page 389-396
Chae, M and Abraham, M, (2001), Neuro-Fuzzy Approaches for Sanitary Sewer
Pipeline Condition Assessment, ASCE Journal of Computing in Civil
Engineering, Volume 15, Number 1, January, 2001
Dikmen, I, Birgonul, M & Kiziltas, S, (2005), Prediction of Organizational
Effectiveness in Construction Companies, ASCE Journal of Construction
Engineering and Management, Volume 131, Number 2
11
Hasegawa, K, Wada, Y & Miura, H, (1999), New Assessment System for
Premeditated Management and Maintenance of Sewer Pipe Networks,
Proceedings of 8
th
International Conference on Urban Storm Drainage, Page
586-593, Sydney, Australia
Kutner, M, Nachtsheim, C, Neter, J & Li, W, (2005), Applied Linear Statistical
Models, Fifth Edition, McGraw-Hill Inc, USA
McDonald, S & Zhao, J, (2001), Condition Assessment and Rehabilitation of Large
Sewers, Proceedings of International Conference on Underground
Infrastructure Research, page 361-369, Waterloo, Canada
Moselhi, O and Shehab-Eldeen, T, (2000), Classification of Defects in Sewer Pipes
using Neural Networks, ASCE Journal of Infrastructures System, Volume
06, Number 03, September, 2000
Najafi M & Kulandaivel G, (2005), Pipeline Condition Prediction Using Neural
Network Models, Proceedings of the American Society of Civil Engineers
(ASCE) International Pipeline Conference, USA
Rahman, S & Vanier D, (2004), An Evaluation of Condition Assessment Protocols
for Sewer Management, National Research Council of Canada Research
Report Number B-5123.6
Ruwanpura J, Ariaratnam, S, and El-Assaly, A, (2004), Prediction Models for Sewer
Infrastructure Utilizing Rule-Based Simulation, Journal of Civil
Engineering and Environmental Systems, volume 21, No 3, Page 169-185
Thornhill, R & Wildbore, P, (2005), Sewer Defect Codes: Origin and Destination,
U-Tech Underground Construction Paper, April, 2005
Perkins P, (1974), Concrete Pipes and Pipelines for sewerage and Water Supply,
Cement and Concrete association, London, UK
Sinha, S and Fieguth, P, (2006), Segmentation of Buried Concrete Pipe Images,
Journal of Automation in Construction, Volume 15, Pages 47-57
Yan J & Vairavamoorthy, K, (2003), Fuzzy Approach for Pipe Condition
Assessment, Proceedings of the American Society of Civil Engineers
(ASCE) International Pipeline Conference, USA
Zhao, J. Q & Daigle, L, (2001), SIDD Pipe bedding and Ontario Provincial
Standards, Proceedings of International Conference on Underground
Infrastructure Research, Kitchener, Ontario, pp 143 152

52 Structural Condition Models For Sewer Pipeline

Încărcat de

Informații document

Titlu original

Drepturi de autor

Formate disponibile

Partajați acest document

Partajați sau inserați document

Opțiuni de partajare

Vi se pare util acest document?

Este necorespunzător acest conținut?

Drepturi de autor:

Formate disponibile

52 Structural Condition Models For Sewer Pipeline

Încărcat de

Drepturi de autor:

Formate disponibile

1

Structural Condition Models for Sewer Pipeline

S-ar putea să vă placă și