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=
+
=
N
o t
t
t
r
CF
NPV
) 1 (
where t = time of the cashflow in years;
CF
t
= net cashflow at time t;
r = the opportunity cost of capital (discount rate); and
N = period (years) over which the NPV is calculated.
Environmental sustainability is principally measured via life cycle assessment to
understand criteria such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction potential,
allowing comparison between alternate solutions on a consistent basis. A summary
of the purpose, CONOPS and key measures of effectiveness is shown in Table 4.2.
63
Table 4.2 Summary purpose, concept of operations (CONOPS) and key measures
of effectiveness of the integrated sugar ethanol system
The sugarcane bioethanol system
Purpose:
To deliver long-term profitable return on investment and a high level of sustainability
performance including greenhouse gas emission reduction from the production of ethanol
from sugarcane fibre in an integrated sugar ethanol production facility
Concept of Operations:
Integrate new bioethanol facilities with sugar processing and juice/molasses processing
facilities to reduce capital and operating costs
Utilise shared services, infrastructure and administration
Utilise sugarcane extraneous matter (trash) for extra fibre availability and to improve
economies of scale
Enhance the sustainability of the agricultural system through encouraging and enabling good
agricultural practice including sufficient trash for green sugarcane trash blanketing and
recycling of co-products
Consider the transfer of process streams between sugar and ethanol processing facilities
where this enhances overall profitability
Utilise energy transfers between processes to optimise process energy efficiency
Utilise shared liquid and solid waste treatment facilities
Consider storage of bagasse and molasses for effective use of capital
Generate new revenue streams for revenue diversification
Maximise sustainability outcomes for community benefit
Maximise revenue opportunities from carbon trading
Minimise technology risks for early adopters
Have minimal negative impact on global food availability
Create value from co-products for higher economic viability and resilience
Utilise the value from existing sunk capital in sugar and ethanol production facilities
Utilise existing value and supply chains
Utilise existing industry research and extension infrastructure plant breeding, processing,
etc
Focus efforts by working with technology leaders
Continually reinforce the paradigm that sugarcane industry is a renewable energy industry
Key measures of effectiveness:
Net present value of the project
Greenhouse gas emission reduction by life cycle analysis
64
4.5 Scoping the solution space through techno-economic modelling
To understand and explore the solution space, a techno-economic model of a
sugarcane bioethanol system was constructed, the sugarcane bioethanol model.
Conceptually, the sugarcane bioethanol model is based upon the common
methodological framework as described by de Rocquigny et al [194] and links both
fixed inputs (d) and uncertain inputs (x) to the model outputs (z), based upon which
decision criteria are assessed (Figure 4.5). The sugarcane bioethanol model
(constructed in MS Excel) uses Monte Carlo techniques within Oracle Crystal Ball to
analyse model outputs and uncertainty.
Figure 4.5 Techno-economic model of the sugarcane bioethanol system (the
sugarcane bioethanol model) based upon the common methodological
framework [194]
Other materials usages
Other materials prices
Bagasse storage and
handling costs
Maintenance costs
Fixed inputs (d)
Quantity of fibre available
Factory availability
Product lignin quality
Calorific value of ancillary
fuels
Boiler operating conditions
Steam losses
Capital on-costs and
location factors
Transport distances
Transport cost rates
IP and insurance costs
Inflation
Discount rate
Tax rate
Plant depreciation life
System model
Model outputs (z)
Forecast variables
Net present value
Internal rate of return
Payback
Return on funds
employed f (x , d)
Decision criteria
Maximise net present
value
NPV >0
Certainty >95%
Feedback process
Take action to reduce
uncertainty in model
Input experimental data
Convert less sensitive
variables to fixed
Input uncertainty
Measure of uncertainty
Probability / cumulative distribution
function of the uncertain variables
Parameters of the uncertainty model
Correlation coefficients
Output uncertainty
Measure of uncertainty
Probability / cumulative distribution
function of the forecast variable
Quantity of interest
Coefficient of variation (=stdev/mean)
Uncertainty propagation
Output presentation
Forecast charts
Sensitivity charts
Correlation data
Optimum results
Uncertainty propagation
Sensitivity analysis
Monte Carlo analysis
Uncertain inputs (x)
Sugarcane constituents
Fibre constituents
Pretreatment yields
Hydrolysis efficiency
Fermentation efficiency
Co-product yields
Capital costs
Labour rates
Labour requirements
Hydrolysis solids loading
Electrical requirements
Steam requirements
Bagasse price
Ethanol price
Ethanol production tax
rebate
Lignin price
Electricity price
Renewable energy
incentives
Ancillary fuel prices
Enzyme usage & price
Summary of model inputs
Rank correlation coefficients
65
Unlike the traditional sugarcane production system which utilises well understood
technology and operates in established markets, the sugarcane bioethanol system is
subject to large degrees of uncertainty both in technology outcomes and in the
markets for the products of the process. There is a high degree of uncertainty in the
policy arena with regard to the future price of carbon, emission reduction programs
and renewable fuel production incentives. The common methodological framework
provides a basis for both defining and assessing the impact of this uncertainty on
the model inputs and measuring the effect of this uncertainty on the output of
interest.
The uncertainty in the inputs is caused by the variables being subject to
randomness, lack of knowledge, measurement errors, predictions of future states,
technology assumptions and others sources of uncertainty.
Uncertainty in the sugarcane bioethanol model input assumptions is represented as
probability distribution functions for each of the uncertain inputs. For each of the
variables, a triangular distribution function is applied to each variable using
estimates of the minimum, maximum and most likely states of the variable. Key
uncertain and fixed inputs for the model are shown in Table 4.3 and Table 4.4. Note
that the simulations undertaken in this example refer to a fixed quantity of fibre
available and it is assumed that the sugar factory has the capacity to vary the sugar
production process to enable the fibre to be available as required.
Uncertainty is propagated in the model from the input to the output variables. The
key output variable (forecast variable) of the model is the net present value of the
process. Uncertainty in the net present value is represented as a normalised
probability distribution of the forecast variable and the probability of achieving a
predetermined target or range is termed the certainty. The decision criteria can
then apply a benchmark to the certainty of the forecast variable distribution
function to determine the acceptability of the result. The certainty can be increased
by analysing the sensitivity of the results to the uncertain assumptions and
focussing on reducing assumption uncertainty.
66
Table 4.3 Key variable inputs to the sugarcane bioethanol model
Key model input variables Units
1
Minimum Likeliest Maximum
Cellulose content of bagasse % odf
2
32 38 52
Hemicellulose content of
bagasse
% odf
2
20 26 30
Lignin content of bagasse % odf
2
17 20 24
Hexose yield (from
pretreatment
kg / kg cellulose 0.70 0.85 0.98
Pentose yield (from
pretreatment)
kg / kg pentan 0.75 0.90 0.98
Ethanol yield from hexose
fermentation
% theoretical 80 88 94
Ethanol yield from pentose
fermentation
% theoretical 40 65 90
Bioethanol plant capital cost
factor
3
6 8 10
Cellulase price $ / t enzyme 120 160 420
Bagasse price $ / t odf
2
10 60 90
Ethanol factory gate price $ / L 0.4 0.7 1.0
Ethanol production incentive
value
$ / L 0 0.26 0.38
Export electricity price $ / MWh 20 30 60
Renewable electricity
incentive value
$/ MWh 0 30 40
Coal price $ / t 40 90 200
Bagasse storage and handling
cost
$ / t bagasse 8 12 20
1
All prices in 2009 Australian dollars
2
Oven dry fibre
3
Capital cost (AUD m) = Cost factor x (Plant capacity ML ^ 0.7)
67
Table 4.4 Key fixed inputs to the sugarcane bioethanol model
Key model fixed inputs Units Value
Annual throughput t odf
1
/ annum 1,000,000
Maintenance cost rate % capital cost 2.2
Administration and overheads cost rate % capital cost 2.0
Capital expenditure year 1 / year 2 % 60/40
Inflation rate % / annum 3.0
Discount rate % 12.0
Tax rate % 30.0
1
Oven dry fibre
Model simulations were based on 10,000 trials using the Monte Carlo simulation
tool in Oracle Crystal Ball. A typical analysis of the sensitivity of the key input
variables to the net present value of the ethanol production process is shown in the
tornado chart in Figure 4.6. The tornado chart represents in descending order the
factors with the greatest sensitivity to project net present value. Sensitivity is
calculated by computing the rank correlation coefficients between every
assumption and forecast variable using the data generated from all of the 10,000
simulations. In calculating sensitivities, data for the assumption variables were
selected according to a triangular probability distribution generated from the
Minimum, Likeliest and Maximum values shown in Table 4.3.
As can be seen from Figure 4.6, the key variables impacting upon the net present
value include:
1. ethanol price and ethanol producer subsidy;
2. bagasse price;
3. cellulase price; and
4. bioethanol plant capital cost.
Other variables including the constituents of the bagasse, hydrolysis yields and
fermentation yields have a much lower impact on net present value. It is worth
noting that much of the on-going technology development is focussing on
incremental gains in these criteria.
68
The results of an analysis of the relationship between assumption uncertainty and
the net present value sensitivity are shown in Figure 4.7. Assumption uncertainty is
calculated as the coefficient of variation of the probability distribution of the model
uncertain assumption variables and sensitivity is the normalised correlation
coefficients of the forecast variables.
Figure 4.6 Sensitivity of the key factors in bagasse based ethanol project viability
(net present value) to the project assumptions
From this figure it can be clearly seen that both the ethanol price and feedstock
price present the most risk to any commercial project as these variables have a high
assumption uncertainty and a high impact on the net present value of the project.
35.7%
-16.3%
14.0%
9.2%
-6.6%
-6.0%
4.3%
3.7%
1.5%
1.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.8%
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Ethanol price
Bagasse price
Ethanol producer subsidy
Renewable electricity incentive price
Cellulase price
Plant capital cost factor
Cellulose % fibre
Export electricity price
Hemicellulose % fibre
Lignin % fibre
Pentose fermentation efficiency
Bagasse storage and handling costs
Hexose fermentation efficiency
Other
Sensitivity: Net present value
69
Managing the uncertainty associated with these variables is the most significant
issue in establishing viable commercial projects. While lignin price, capital cost and
enzyme cost have similarly high assumption uncertainties, the impact on the net
present value of the project is less dependent upon variations in the future price of
these factors, although these factors are still significant.
Figure 4.7 Sensitivity of the major factors in bagasse based ethanol project
viability (net present value) to the assumptions in the techno-
economic model
1 Ethanol price
2 Feedstock (bagasse) price
3 Ethanol producer subsidy
4 Renewable electricity incentive price
5 Cellulase price
6 Bioethanol plant capital cost factor
8 Bagasse storage and handling costs
9 Pentose fermentation efficiency
10 Cellulose % fibre
11 Hemicellulose % fibre
12 Lignin % fibre
13 Hexose fermentation efficiency
7 Export electricity price
1
2
4
3
5
6
10
11
7
9
12
13
8
S
e
n
s
i
t
i
v
i
t
y
:
N
e
t
p
r
e
s
e
n
t
v
a
l
u
e
Assumption uncertainty
Low High
Low
High
Low High
Low
High
70
4.6 Manifesting the optimum solution
To increase the likelihood of early stage investment in bioethanol production from
sugarcane, it is critical to ensure that the key factors identified above are optimised
to provide a positive return for the facility over the life of the project, the risk
associated with these factors is managed and that the uncertainty in the future
value of these factors is reduced to the greatest extent possible. By optimising these
variables and minimising uncertainty, the technological and financial risks are
minimised for early adopters of the technology.
4.6.1 Ethanol price and production incentives
There is a high degree of uncertainty in the future price of fuel grade ethanol and
this uncertainty is the major contributor to investment risk. Future ethanol prices
will be influenced by the complex behaviour of the crude oil market, public demand
for renewable fuels and the presence or absence of national policies promoting the
use of alternate fuels. It is likely though that ethanol prices will be significantly
correlated to traded global crude oil and petroleum prices. For most early stage
commercialisation projects, however, the establishment of long term off-take
agreements will be essential in mitigating the ethanol product demand and price
risks.
Unlike many globally traded commodities there is no accepted international
benchmark price for ethanol, although such a benchmark may develop as the
market matures. Currently, the reference price of ethanol is dependent upon the
market in which it is traded. In the USA, the domestic price of ethanol is largely
determined by trade in the spot and longer term physical markets but, while trading
volumes are still reasonably light, ethanol futures prices on the Chicago Board of
Trade (CBOT) are highly correlated with physical values [195] and can be effectively
used as a reference price for physical market values. The existence of derivatives
markets such as the CBOT for ethanol allows some management of product price
risk through forward pricing in futures contracts, options and other commodity
price management strategies.
71
The technology risk associated with second generation ethanol facilities increases
the risk associated with the commercialisation of early stage second generation
facilities. Many countries currently have in place ethanol incentive schemes to
encourage the uptake of ethanol technologies. Around the world, and particularly in
Brazil and the USA, biofuel production incentive schemes and mandates have
assisted in underpinning an ethanol price either directly or indirectly at a level that
has encouraged early stage investment in first generation biofuels.
For a government subsidy or production rebate to enhance commercialisation of
biofuel processing infrastructure, there needs to be sufficient certainty in the policy
position for an extended period of time. As with the market price of ethanol, the
value of biofuel production incentive schemes for renewable or low emission
transport fuel production has a significant impact on investment indicators, and is a
key factor in promoting early stage investment.
Further government policy support is likely to be necessary to promote this
investment in early stage second generation ethanol technologies in Australia.
4.6.2 Bagasse price
Like other fibrous residues, sugarcane bagasse is a high volume, low value material
and as such is generally considered to only find economic utility within a small
distance of the sugar factory in which it is generated. As a result, there is no
significant national or global market for bagasse, and no commonly traded market
price. The value of bagasse as a feedstock for a bioethanol plant is therefore
dependent upon the region in which it is generated including any local alternative
uses for excess bagasse, such as cogeneration or paper products manufacture.
Historically, bagasse has been combusted in the sugar factory boilers to provide
steam and energy for the process, but as there is significantly more energy in
bagasse than is required for the process, both the boilers and sugar production
processes have been designed to utilise this energy inefficiently to ensure complete
disposal of the bagasse. Increasingly, excess energy from the process is being
72
converted to electricity which is exported to generate additional revenue for the
sugar factory.
The value of bagasse to the factory for site energy generation is dependent upon
the energy balance of the factory and the capacity of the factory to generate and
economically utilise additional steam and electricity. In a factory with surplus
bagasse and limited electricity generation infrastructure, the value of bagasse could
be negative as excess bagasse represents a disposal cost to the factory. In a factory
with both surplus bagasse and surplus capacity to generate and export electricity,
the bagasse value is dependent upon the electricity export price including any value
for renewable or low emission energy generation. Where the factory regularly
imports extraneous fuels to supplement bagasse combustion for energy generation,
the bagasse value may be considered to have the value of the extraneous fuel on an
energy equivalent basis [196].
The farming decision to cultivate sugarcane is (in most of the world) a decision
made on the projected revenue from sugar, or as in Brazil, on the revenue from
sugar and ethanol from juice fermentation. A shortage of fibre from bagasse and
sugarcane trash, leading to an increase in fibre price, is unlikely to result in a
significant supply response from sugarcane growers (in the absence of a sugar price
driver). An increase in fibre price, however, may make the import of alternative
sources of fibre into the process more economic such as through the harvesting of
sugarcane trash or the utilisation of complementary feedstocks (green waste or
fibre crops).
To minimise the risks associated with feedstock price, it is necessary to consider
locating bagasse based bioethanol facilities where there is long term certainty of
bagasse availability and where the bagasse has limited alternate economic value. It
may also be possible to reduce risk by considering in the location of a facility the
availability of cost-effective supplementary feedstocks.
73
4.6.3 Cellulase price
This analysis shows that the cost of cellulase for the cellulose hydrolysis stage is the
key operating cost in a bioethanol facility. Cellulase may be supplied to the facility
as an imported product, but given the large quantity of enzyme required for a
commercial process, is likely to be manufactured on-site in many cases. The future
price of cellulase is uncertain at the scale required for commercial facilities but
there exists a high likelihood of significant cost reductions over the next decade.
The risks associated with enzyme supply cost may be mitigated through innovative
plant design and operation to minimise enzyme requirements and through
contractual supply arrangements with enzyme producers. Research toward plant
made cellulases in sugarcane offers opportunities for significantly reducing the cost
of enzymes in the sugarcane bioethanol system [197].
4.6.4 Bioethanol plant capital cost
The capital cost of the bioethanol facility is dependent upon many factors including
facility location, scale and process technology choices. The uncertainty in bioethanol
plant capital cost has a significant impact on the uncertainty in net present value of
the facility although for any one project may be defined with greater certainty
through detailed engineering design. Integrating processing operations in co-
located sugar processing and ethanol production facilities offers significant
opportunities for reducing the capital cost of new bioethanol facilities.
4.7 Creating the solution and deep learning
A long-term profitable return on investment is the key objective (purpose) of an
integrated sugarcane bioethanol facility. Such a facility, however, must also
demonstrate that there are significant sustainability benefits from the production
system, including in particular a significant greenhouse gas emission reduction
benefit. An analysis of this greenhouse gas reduction benefit is beyond the scope of
this paper.
74
Minimising the commercial and technical risk associated with investment in
sugarcane bioethanol facilities will enhance early stage uptake of the technology.
This process requires solutions at the science, engineering design, marketing and
government policy levels to address the key variables impacting on project
assumption uncertainty and sensitivity to project investment indicators such as net
present value.
This study has analysed the sugarcane bioethanol system as a complex system and
considered the integration of bioethanol production from bagasse into the
sugarcane processing system. The techno-economic analysis of the system
concludes that the key factors which need to be addressed to enable early stage
uptake of the technology and minimise risk for investors in Australia include ethanol
price, bagasse price, ethanol producer subsidy, cellulase price and biorefinery
capital cost.
While to some extent these conclusions appear self-evident, this analysis provides
an assessment of the scale of influence and relative magnitude of importance of
these factors to early stage commercial success. The analysis results in a deeper
understanding of the influence of uncertainty in early stage project investment and
highlights the importance of reducing the uncertainty in these key factors to
encourage project investment.
Uncertainty in the future price of ethanol is the major impediment to early stage
investment in second generation ethanol production from bagasse. Government
policy support which underpins the ethanol price and reduces investment risk
through renewable fuels incentives such as the ethanol producer subsidy in
Australia or through the establishment of a carbon price under an emissions trading
scheme is likely to be necessary to promote early stage commercial investment in
this technology and hence deliver the significant greenhouse gas reduction, health
and community benefits possible from second generation biofuel use.
75
Techno-economic
assessment
77
Chapter 5
The potential for ethanol production
from sugarcane in Australia
5.1 Introduction
The information in this chapter was presented at the Australian Society of Sugar
Cane Technologists annual conference in Bundaberg, Queensland from the 11th
14th May 2010. The paper was peer-reviewed and included in the published
proceedings of the conference cited as the Proceedings of the Australian Society
of Sugar Cane Technologists, Volume 32, 2010.
This chapter identifies the current quantum of transport fuel used in Australia
and assesses the options for substituting a portion of this fuel usage by ethanol
produced from components of the sugarcane crop (juice, molasses, bagasse and
trash). The chapter describes the development of a comprehensive and
integrated techno-economic model of a sugarcane processing facility, juice and
molasses-based ethanol distillery and cellulosic ethanol facility, including an
assessment of the energy requirements of the integrated facility. The chapter
compares the potential industry revenues for five scenarios including a base
case, cogeneration scenario and three ethanol options of varying scales.
5.2 Transport fuel use in Australia
Transport fuel consumption in Australia is dominated by the four key fuels
automotive gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel and LPG. Statistics on transport fuel
consumption in Australia and in the individual states are reported annually by
the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics (ABARE) in the series
entitled Consumption of Petroleum Products [198]. The most recent ABARE data
on petroleum product use in Australia and the key sugarcane growing states of
Queensland and NSW are shown in Table 5.1.
78
The major growth in transport fuel use in Australia is in the consumption of
diesel and to a lesser extent aviation fuels. Over the past 10 years in Australia,
diesel fuel use has increased by 42 % and aviation fuel use has increased 26 %
while automotive gasoline use has only increased by 6 %.
Table 5.1 Consumption of petroleum products in Australia, Queensland and
NSW 2007-08 [198]
Australia
(ML)
Queensland
(ML)
NSW
(ML)
Automotive gasoline 19 234 4475 6072
Diesel 18 256 5164 3776
Aviation fuel 6158 1313 2738
LPG 4024 613 1139
Other 3116 573 913
TOTAL 50 788 12 138 14 638
5.3 The capacity of the Australian sugarcane industry
The Australian sugarcane industry extends across 2200 km of coastal Queensland
and NSW. Over the past decade, the industry has contracted as a result of a
sustained period of poor world sugar prices, drought, disease and industry
rationalisation. The Australian sugarcane crop has dropped from a peak of 39.5
Mt in 1998 to 30.3 Mt in the 2008 season. Area harvested has decreased from a
peak of 450 000 ha to about 370 000 ha [38]. The average Australian sugarcane
productivity over the previous ten year period was 85.8 t/ha, varying on a
seasonal basis between 69.8 t/ha and 99.1 t/ha. With the reduction in milling
capacity in some areas, a proportion of the area lost to sugarcane cultivation is
unlikely to be readily returned to production. Higher world sugar prices in 2008
and 2009 are likely to result in the stabilisation of sugarcane production and
perhaps some increases in sugarcane cultivation in several areas in the short
term.
79
It seems likely that, unless there is a sustained step change in the world sugar
price or a significant move to high biomass sugarcane cultivation, sugarcane
production in Australia in the short to medium term will continue to average
between 30 and 35 Mt from approximately 400,000 ha. It is recognised that, in
the right business environment, further significant expansion of the sugarcane
industry in Australia is possible particularly through tropical Queensland,
Western Australia and the Northern Territory, however, significant infrastructure
and investment capital is required to support this expansion and as a result this
possible future expansion scenario has not been assessed in this study.
5.4 Ethanol production from sugarcane juice and molasses
Ethanol can be produced from a variety of sugarcane feedstocks, including juice,
molasses and crystal sugar. The conversion of sucrose to reducing sugars and
ethanol through yeast fermentation of juice and molasses has been previously
reported [199].
In the fermentation of sugarcane juice or molasses, sucrose is hydrolysed to
hexoses (glucose and fructose) which are fermented to ethanol as shown in
Equations 1 and 2.
C
12
H
22
O
11
+ H
2
O 2C
6
H
12
O
6
(Equation 1)
C
6
H
12
O
6
2C
2
H
5
OH + 2CO
2
(Equation 2)
As reported [199], the production of significant quantities of carbon dioxide as a
by-product of the fermentation process limits the maximum theoretical
fermentation yield of ethanol from hexose to 51.14 % (w/w) but the maximum
practical yield using conventional fermentation organisms is around 48.40 %
(w/w) as a result of hexose consumption in side reactions.
80
The maximum theoretical yield of ethanol from sucrose is 105.3 % of the ethanol
yield from an equivalent weight of glucose, as a result of a mass increase in the
initial sucrose hydrolysis reaction. Approximate ethanol yields per tonne of
product are shown in Table 5.2.
Table 5.2 Approximate ethanol yields per tonne of product
Typical sucrose
concentration
1
(%)
Typical reducing
sugars
concentration
1
(%)
Approximate ethanol
yield
2
(L/t)
Final molasses 35.0 13.0 280
B molasses 46.5 8.7 324
A molasses 53.5 5.2 345
Evaporator
supply juice (ESJ)
13.5 0.4 82
Raw sugar 98.9 0.3 590
1
SRI data
2
Based on fermentation yield of 88.0 %, distillation efficiency of 99.0 % and ethanol
density of 0.789 kg/L
5.5 Ethanol production from bagasse and sugarcane trash
The production of ethanol from the fibre component of tops and leaf (trash) and
bagasse is significantly more complex than the production of ethanol from
sugarcane juice or molasses as a result of the resilience of the carbohydrates in
the fibre to undergo hydrolysis to their monomer sugars. Pretreatment of the
fibre through physical or chemical processing is required to make the
carbohydrates in the fibre more susceptible to hydrolysis. Hydrolysis is achieved
through the application of hydrolytic enzymes or acids.
In general, the hydrolysis reactions can be described as shown in Equation 3 for
cellulose and in Equation 4 for hemicellulose [79]. The hydrolysis of cellulose
results in the production of the glucose monomer and from sugarcane bagasse
81
the primary monomers from hemicellulose hydrolysis are the pentoses xylose
and arabinose.
(C
6
H
10
O
5
)
n
+ nH
2
O nC
6
H
12
O
6
(Equation 3)
(C
5
H
8
O
4
)
n
+ nH
2
O nC
5
H
10
O
5
(Equation 4)
In the cellulose hydrolysis reaction, the molecular weight of the carbohydrates
increases by 11.1 %, and for hemicelluloses the molecular weight increases by
13.6 %.
Due to the harsh nature of the leading pretreatment processes, a number of
degradation products may be formed which not only reduce hexose and pentose
yields but can be inhibitory to the organisms involved in fermentation of the
sugars to ethanol. These degradation products include furfural, 5-
hydroxymethylfurfural, levulinic acid, formic acid and acetic acid. Minimising the
formation of these degradation products is a critical challenge for any biomass
pretreatment strategy.
The crystalline nature of the cellulose in plant fibres typically restricts the
economically achievable glucose yield from cellulose hydrolysis, although the
glucose released can be readily fermented at very high efficiencies using
conventional fermentation organisms.
While hemicellulose can be readily hydrolysed to pentoses using mild acid
processes, the slow rate of fermentation of pentoses by yeasts and other
organisms restricts the economically achievable ethanol yield from pentoses. A
large global research effort is focussing on increasing the economic yield of
ethanol from cellulose and hemicellulose by improving enzyme and fermentation
organism effectiveness. Currently, however, pentose fermentation remains a key
challenge for the development of a commercial cellulosic ethanol industry.
When estimating the potential yield of ethanol from bagasse, it is necessary to
account for the efficiency of the whole production process. The overall yield of
ethanol will be a product of the yields from each of the pretreatment, hydrolysis,
82
fermentation and distillation stages and will account for the different yields from
the cellulose and hemicellulose components of the biomass.
For an ethanol conversion efficiency of approximately 80 % from cellulose and a
moderate 50 % from hemicellulose, an ethanol product yield of around 340 L/t
dry fibre can be achieved. This consists of about 260 L/t dry fibre from the
cellulose component and 80 L /t dry fibre from the hemicellulose component of
the fibre.
In most sugarcane factories, bagasse is the primary energy source, where it is
combusted to produce steam and electricity for the process and export.
Historically, the bagasse has been burnt inefficiently in low pressure boilers and
with energy inefficient sugar processing techniques to ensure complete disposal
of the bagasse. With increasing prices for sales of export electricity to the
electricity distribution network, and for green incentives such as renewable
energy certificates generated under the Mandatory Renewable Energy Target
(MRET) scheme, there is now a significant focus on energy efficiency
improvements of sugarcane factories to maximise electricity generation and
export.
In an integrated crystal sugar factory and bagasse ethanol facility, it is envisaged
that the energy requirements for the process will still principally derive from
bagasse combustion, and it is only the surplus bagasse (the bagasse in excess of
that required for process energy) that is made available for cellulosic ethanol
production. This bagasse can be supplemented with a portion of the available
trash to provide extra fibre for both combustion and ethanol production, while
still ensuring sufficient trash remains in the field for its mulch and soil
conditioning value. The availability of trash for value-adding applications in a
region will depend upon both the economics of trash collection and transport,
and the value of the trash to the farming system. A previous biomass availability
model has assessed utilisation options based upon additional trash availability of
12.3 % for whole of crop harvesting compared to a typical sugarcane supply
83
[200]. The following scenario analyses assume a maximum trash availability
equivalent to 10 % of the existing sugarcane supply.
5.6 Scenario analysis
A comprehensive technical and economic model of an integrated sugar factory,
juice and molasses-based ethanol distillery and cellulosic ethanol facility has
been developed in this research program (shown schematically in Figure 5.1).
This model enables the evaluation of possible scenarios for integrated sugar and
ethanol production facilities, including integrated options for energy generation
and export.
Simulations have been undertaken for several whole-of-industry scenarios to
estimate the potential for ethanol production from the Australian sugar industry
and the results of five of these scenarios are summarised in this report.
Figure 5.1 Schematic representation of the QUT techno-economic model of an
integrated sugar factory, juice and molasses distillery and cellulosic
ethanol production facility
Supplementary
fuel
Cane
preparation
and juice
extraction
Juice and
molasses
distillation
Cellulosic
ethanol
facility and
biorefinery
Cogeneration
boiler
Bagasse
Sugar
cane
Crystal
sugar
production
Electricity
generation
Juice
Molasses
storage
Bagasse
storage
Sugar
Export
molasses
Export
bagasse
Ethanol
CO
2
Vinasse
Ethanol
CO
2
Lignin
Solid
residue
Waste water
treatment
Water
Import
trash
Import
bagasse
Import
molasses
Export
electricity
Import
electricity
Filter mud
Boiler ash
Electricity
Steam
84
In all of the scenarios reported, the average Australian sugarcane crop is
assumed to be 35 million tonnes. Additionally, it is assumed that a portion of the
trash from the field is collected and transported to the factory for processing.
The sugarcane processing period is assumed to be 23 weeks/y with the ethanol
facilities operating 48 weeks/y, requiring significant bagasse and molasses
storage. The bagasse is assumed to be composed of 45 % cellulose, 22 %
hemicellulose and 19 % lignin, the remainder being minor amounts of ash,
extractives and protein.
Although the model allows for their inclusion, in these scenarios, no value has
been included for renewable energy certificates, carbon credits or ethanol
production incentives. The analysis excludes rum production at the Bundaberg
distillery and other minor ethanol production in small distilleries. It is noted that
there is a considerable market for molasses as an animal feed which is likely to
limit the availability of molasses for ethanol production, but this is not
considered in these scenarios. Likewise, other markets for bagasse or trash
products are not assessed.
The five scenarios presented in this paper are:
Base scenario
This scenario models the approximate sugar, ethanol and electricity production
in the Australian sugar industry using currently installed infrastructure. In this
scenario, no sugarcane juice is utilised for ethanol production and a total of 60
ML of ethanol is produced from final molasses. All of the bagasse is used for
cogeneration and the production of export electricity. Bagasse is assumed to be
combusted in low pressure inefficient boilers and no bagasse is used for
cellulosic ethanol production. No trash is processed in this scenario.
Cogeneration scenario
In this scenario, no sugarcane juice is utilised for ethanol production. A total of
60 ML of ethanol is produced from final molasses. All of the bagasse and a
85
proportion of the available trash are used for cogeneration and the production of
export electricity. Bagasse is assumed to be combusted in high pressure efficient
boilers and energy efficient process technologies are implemented to maximise
electricity generation and export.
Low ethanol scenario
In the low ethanol scenario, no sugarcane juice is utilised for ethanol production.
Ethanol is produced from all of the final molasses generated from the sugar
production process. Bagasse and trash surplus to the energy requirements of the
process are used for cellulosic ethanol production. Bagasse and trash used for
energy production are combusted in high pressure efficient boilers and energy
efficient sugar production process technologies are implemented.
Moderate ethanol scenario
In the moderate ethanol scenario, 70 % of the sugarcane juice is utilised for
crystal sugar production with the remaining sugarcane juice utilised for ethanol
production. All of the A molasses from the crystal sugar production process is
utilised for ethanol production. Bagasse and trash surplus to the energy
requirements of the process are used for cellulosic ethanol production. Bagasse
and trash used for energy production are combusted in high pressure efficient
boilers and energy efficient sugar production process technologies are
implemented.
High ethanol scenario
In the high ethanol scenario, no crystal sugar is produced and all of the
sugarcane juice is used for ethanol production. Bagasse and trash surplus to the
energy requirements of the process are used for cellulosic ethanol production.
Bagasse and trash used for energy production are combusted in high pressure
efficient boilers. Key input data for the scenario analyses are shown in Table 5.3
and Table 5.4 and the results are shown in Table 5.5.
86
5.7 Discussion
Based on the assumptions used, the scenario analysis detailed in this report
shows that in a high ethanol scenario, a maximum of 4657 ML of ethanol is able
to be produced which equates to 24 % of Australias automotive gasoline
requirement or 104 % of Queenslands automotive gasoline requirement on a
volumetric basis
1
. With the quantity of existing crystal sugar production
infrastructure in Australia, however, it is very unlikely at any stage in the future
that this quantity of sugarcane juice will be diverted from crystal sugar
manufacture to ethanol production.
The moderate scenario is a more achievable long-term ethanol production
estimate from sugarcane in Australia that may be possible in the right
commercial and policy environment. In this scenario, 30 % of the current
sugarcane juice is diverted from crystal sugar production to ethanol production
and, with the production of cellulosic ethanol from surplus bagasse and trash,
results in the production of 2622 ML of ethanol, equivalent to 14 % of Australias
(or 61 % of Queenslands) automotive gasoline requirement on a volumetric
basis. It must be noted, however, that several significant economic and technical
challenges need to be overcome particularly with respect to aspects of the
cellulosic ethanol production process and the collection, transport and
processing of sugarcane trash before ethanol production at these levels could be
realised.
Even in the low ethanol production scenario, over 28 % of Queenslands
automotive gasoline requirement on a volumetric basis can be met using ethanol
produced from sugarcane resources alone. In all of the scenarios analysed, the
process is energy self-sufficient, requiring no significant quantities of coal or
other ancillary fuels for energy generation and no significant electricity import
during operation.
1
Throughout this chapter, ethanol substitution in automotive gasoline is referenced on a
volumetric basis. Reporting on a volumetric basis does not account for the lower energy content of
ethanol compared to gasoline. Ethanol substitution results on an energy content basis can be
calculated by multiplying the result on a volumetric basis by 0.67.
87
Table 5.3 Common input data for scenario analysis
Common input data
Cane crushed (t) 35 000 000
Crushing season length (weeks/y) 23
Ethanol production period (weeks/y) 48
Commercial cane sugar content (CCS) 13.72
Cane purity (%) 85.9
Fibre % sugarcane 14.70
Fibre % trash 51.06
Cellulose % dry fibre 45.0
Hemicellulose % dry fibre 22.0
Lignin % dry fibre 19.0
Overall ethanol yield from fibre (L/t dry fibre) 340
Sugar price ($ /t IPS) 350
Ethanol price ($ /L) 0.70
Molasses price ($ /t) 90
Export electricity price ($ /MWh) 40
Table 5.4 Input data for the scenario analysis
Base
scenario
Cogeneration
scenario
Low
ethanol
scenario
Moderate
ethanol
scenario
High
ethanol
scenario
Trash collected (% cane) 0 10 10 10 10
Mixed juice to ethanol
production (%)
0 0 0 30 100
Final molasses purity
(molasses distillery feed
purity; %)
45 45 45 72 -
Average boiler pressure
(bar)
18 65 65 65 65
Average boiler efficiency
(%)
60 72 72 72 72
88
Table 5.5 Results from scenario analysis
Base
scenario
Cogeneration
scenario
Low ethanol
scenario
Moderate
ethanol
scenario
High ethanol
scenario
Sugar produced (t IPS) 4 850 000 4 850 000 4 850 000 2 770 000 0
Molasses produced (t) 1 002 000 1 002 000 0 0 0
Ethanol produced from
juice or molasses
fermentation (ML)
60 60 316 1574 3248
Ethanol produced from
cellulosic biomass (ML)
0 0 973 1159 1409
Total ethanol produced
(ML)
60 60 1289 2733 4657
Export electricity
produced (GWh)
1156 12 784 3122 2425 1493
% fibre required for
combustion
100 100 61.8 54.4 44.6
Sugar revenue ($ M) 1698 1698 1698 970 0
Molasses revenue ($ M) 90 90 0 0 0
Electricity revenue ($ M) 46 511 125 97 60
Ethanol revenue ($ M) 42 42 902 1913 3260
Total revenue ($ M) 1876 2341 2725 2980 3320
Sugar revenue (%) 90 72 62 33 0
Molasses revenue (%) 5 4 0 0 0
Electricity revenue (%) 3 22 5 3 2
Ethanol revenue (%) 2 2 33 64 98
% Australian automotive
gasoline substitution
1
0.3 % 0.3 % 6.7 % 14.2 % 24.2 %
% Queensland
automotive gasoline
substitution
1
1.3 % 1.3 % 28.8 % 61.1 % 104.1 %
1
2007-08 automotive gasoline usage on a volumetric basis for ethanol
substitution
89
The proportion of fibre required for energy generation decreases with a decrease
in the amount of crystal sugar produced, as a result of the lower energy
requirements for ethanol production, increasing the amount of fibre available for
cellulosic ethanol production. An increase in the production of export electricity
is expected even in the high ethanol production scenario as excess high pressure
steam is utilised for electricity generation.
Compared to the base scenario with revenue of $1876 million, the cogeneration
scenario shows that an additional $465 million is able to be generated from
increased electricity production with the installation of efficient high pressure
boilers and generation equipment, energy efficient processing technologies and
the combustion of additional trash. Significantly more income is able to be
generated from the combined use of molasses, juice and bagasse for ethanol
production with an additional $849 million possible in the low ethanol scenario,
$1104 million possible in the moderate ethanol scenario and an additional $1444
million possible in the high ethanol scenario.
Further income is possible from the cellulosic ethanol production process if a
valuable co-product is able to be made from the lignin component of the fibre.
5.8 Conclusion
With a sugarcane crop of 35 Mt, ethanol produced from sugarcane has the
potential to meet a very significant proportion of Australias current automotive
gasoline requirements. In a possible moderate ethanol production scenario that
includes trash collection and cellulosic ethanol production, sugarcane has the
potential to provide sufficient ethanol to meet 14 % of Australias (or 61 % of
Queenslands) automotive gasoline requirement on a volumetric basis while not
consuming any additional coal or other supplementary fuels.
Through crop expansion or the co-processing of other renewable fibres (such as
sweet sorghum or green waste), further ethanol production may even be
possible. Higher ethanol production quantities are also possible with the
90
cultivation of higher biomass sugarcane varieties and the cultivation of varieties
with a higher proportion of total fermentable sugars.
91
Chapter 6
Economic feasibility of a soda-based
biorefinery at Racecourse Mill
This chapter was written as a confidential research report in 2010 for the
partners in the Biorefinery Development Project including Mackay Sugar Ltd,
Sugar Research Ltd, Viridian Chemicals Pty Ltd and Hexion Specialty Chemicals
Inc. Funding for this project was also provided by the Queensland Government
through the Research Industry Partnerships Program (RIPP).
This chapter assesses the technology options for a biorefinery that utilises
caustic soda pulping technology for pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse to
produce ethanol, lignin and co-products. The chapter develops a process for
feasibility analysis, and utilises a comprehensive technical and economic model
to assess the likely revenue, capital and operating costs for a potential facility
located at a sugar factory in the Mackay region of Queensland. The chapter
assesses the feasibility of the proposed facility against benchmark project
indicators, and undertakes a one and two component sensitivity analysis of the
key factors impacting project viability. The chapter also analyses the feasibility of
several process alternatives.
This chapter will not be made publicly available without the consent of the
project partners. Any requests for information relating to this chapter should be
directed to the author of this thesis.
92
.
93
Chapter 7
Feasibility assessment of in-planta
cellulolytic enzyme expression for
the production of biofuels from
sugarcane bagasse in Australia
This chapter includes information confidential to the partners of the Syngenta
Centre for Sugarcane Biofuels Development (SCSBD) including QUT, Syngenta
Biotechnology Inc and Farmacule Bioindustries Pty Ltd. This research project was
funded by both Syngenta and the Queensland Government through the National
and International Research Alliances Program (NIRAP).
This chapter explores the feasibility of a novel technology for reducing the cost
of cellulolytic enzymes for the production of ethanol from sugarcane bagasse.
The chapter explores the advantages and disadvantages of several concepts for
in-plant expression of cellulases in sugarcane and investigates the economic
benefits of the two leading concepts.
The analysis of concept feasibility reported in this chapter was undertaken by the
author of this thesis. Dr Zhanying Zhang undertook the protein analysis reported
in this chapter, assisted with the analysis of the project concepts and co-
authored the reports on this work to the project partners.
This chapter will not be made publicly available without the consent of the
project partners. Any requests for information relating to this chapter should be
directed to the author of this thesis.
94
95
Pilot plant development
97
Chapter 8
Towards a commercial lignocellulosic
ethanol industry in Australia: the
Mackay Renewable Biocommodities
Pilot Plant
8.1 Introduction
This chapter describes the value of pilot-scale production facilities in the context of
the development of a cellulosic ethanol industry in Australia. The chapter details the
funding, design and construction of a new pilot scale biorefinery facility, the Mackay
Renewable Biocommodities Pilot Plant (MRBPP), the unique capabilities of the
facility and the future opportunities that the facility generates for the Australian
sugar industry.
The author of this thesis was responsible for the conceptual and detailed process
design of the MRBPP, was responsible for the selection and purchasing of
equipment and was the key client representative during the design, construction
and installation phases. The MRBPP is the only facility of its kind in Australia and
one of the only publicly available, flexible pilot scale cellulosic ethanol facilities in
the world, requiring a novel approach to the facility design and the development of
collaborative industry partnerships.
The pilot plant will be utilised for demonstrating the technologies described in
Chapter 6 and Chapter 7 of this thesis and has been designed to be flexible enough
to demonstrate many of the pretreatment processes described in Chapter 3. The
demonstration to be undertaken includes both the technical feasibility and the
economic feasibility of the biofuel production processes.
98
8.2 Pilot plants facilitating commercial development
Pilot plants are an essential tool for the development of new technologies, bridging
the gap between laboratory research and commercial application of the technology.
Pilot plants are used to optimise key process parameters such as yield, rate and
efficiency at a scale much larger than that used for laboratory development and in
equipment that mimics large scale industrial facilities. This allows key process
economics to be evaluated and provides information on both the robustness of the
process and scale-up data for the design of the commercial facility. Additionally,
pilot plants also allow production of a significant amount of product for pre-
commercial testing.
Several pilot scale research facilities exist around the world for the production of
ethanol in a biorefinery. Most pilot and demonstration facilities are focussed on a
particular process technology, with only a few facilities capable of demonstrating a
broader range of technologies.
8.3 MRBPP funding
The Mackay Renewable Biocommodities Pilot Plant (MRBPP) was funded jointly by
the Queensland Government through a $3.1 million loan agreement and by the
Australian Government through a $3.4 million grant under the National
Collaborative Research Infrastructure Scheme (NCRIS) and a $1.765 million grant
under the Education Investment Fund (EIF). Further funding of about $1.7 million
was provided by QUT to ensure that the facility meets its objectives and to underpin
the pilot plant as a world class facility.
Queensland Government funding was provided through the then Department of
State Development through the Innovation Building Fund. The Innovation Building
Fund was established to promote the development of research infrastructure for
science and technology in Queensland. The funding under this program was to
provide the MRBPP building (factory building, laboratory, offices and hazardous
goods containment facilities) and plant and equipment for the pretreatment /
fractionation stages and for the separation and concentration of the lignin product.
99
The NCRIS program was initiated by the Australian Government in 2004-05 to
implement a strategic and collaborative approach to investment in world-class
facilities, networks and infrastructure that are accessible to researchers and meet
their long term needs [201]. In the initial round, $542 million was provided to
2010-11, with an initial nine high priority areas identified in the 2006 Strategic
Roadmap.
Funding for the MRBPP was awarded to QUT under NCRIS Capability 5.5
Biotechnology Products. The aim of this program was to develop research
infrastructure to assist in the production of pre-commercial quantities of
recombinant proteins and biofuels. A total of $23.5 million of Australian
Government funding was awarded under this capability at 11 sites around Australia.
The overall project value (including other funding sources) totalled $62 million
[202]. NCRIS Capability 5.5 is being managed by AusBiotech Ltd.
Under the NCRIS funding rules, it is a requirement that facilities be substantially
available for both public and private sector research. The priority and cost of access
to any of the NCRIS Capability 5.5 facilities including MRBPP is determined in
accordance with an Access and Pricing Code, a copy of which is available on the
program website http://www.ncrisbiofuels.org/. Access to the facility for eligible
researchers is at a subsidised rate.
The NCRIS funding for the MRBPP facility included $2.85 million for hard
infrastructure (plant and equipment) and an additional $0.6 million for soft
infrastructure (facility labour). Plant and equipment funding under the NCRIS
program includes funding for equipment for the saccharification and fermentation
facilities and for ethanol product purification and concentration. A Mettler Toledo
RCe1 reaction calorimeter with on-line infra-red detection was funded to enable the
development of comprehensive chemical reaction kinetic and thermodynamic
information.
Soft infrastructure funding included salaries for 2 facility employees through to July
2011. The inclusion of the soft infrastructure is a valuable component of the NCRIS
program in ensuring that core skills are developed and maintained in operation of
100
the infrastructure and in ensuring that the access cost is minimised for users of the
facility.
8.4 Design and construction of the MRBPP
The MRBPP is located at the Mackay Sugar Limited (MSL) Racecourse Mill to the
north-west of the factory boiler station. The facility is built on land leased from MSL
to QUT. Co-location of the facility at the site of a raw sugar factory offers a number
of advantages, with the most significant advantage being the development of the
facility to industrial standards.
Co-location also allowed the facility ready access to large amounts of bagasse and
to utilise essential services from the Racecourse Mill site, reducing the cost of
construction. Services provided by the site include electrical supply, potable and
raw water supply and waste water treatment. The initiative shown by MSL in
supporting the establishment of a long term research facility on-site and in
providing services and personnel support during the design and construction phase
has been invaluable. This support has also ensured that the development of the
facility was undertaken according to industrial standards, including rigorous
consideration of environmental and health and safety requirements.
A design contract was awarded to Champion Engineers of Mackay in February 2008
to design the site infrastructure, including the provision of site services, factory
building, laboratory and office facilities, bagasse feeding arrangements, hazardous
chemical and waste management facilities for the site. Conceptual and process
design, including the mass and energy balances and the specification and selection
of plant and equipment, was undertaken by the author of this thesis. Electrical and
control system design was undertaken by Logicamms Pty Ptd.
Separate tenders were issued for the construction of the site infrastructure and the
installation of facility plant and equipment. The tender for the construction of the
site infrastructure was issued in October 2008 and the tender awarded to FK
Gardner and Sons in December 2008. Construction of the MRBPP factory building
commenced in January 2009, and the majority of the site infrastructure including
101
factory building, hazardous chemicals storage, waste capture and storage and truck
loading facilities were completed by July 2009.
The construction of the office, laboratory and amenity areas, which had been
delayed pending the finalisation of costs from the main building contract, was
commenced in July 2009. The office, laboratory and amenity buildings were
supplied as modular buildings from ATCO Structures and Logistics Pty Ltd and
transported to site for installation by FK Gardener & Sons. Practical completion was
achieved on 11
th
December 2009.
The mechanical installation of plant and equipment commenced in May 2010 and
was undertaken by J&T Mechanical Installation Pty Ltd. Electrical installation of
plant and equipment commenced in September 2010 and was undertaken by MIE
Pty Ltd. Installation of the plant and equipment was completed in November 2010.
Commissioning of the facility was undertaken throughout November and December
2010 and the facility became fully operational in December 2010.
A photographic record of the construction of the MRBPP facility is contained in
Appendix B.
8.5 Site services
Electrical supply for the facility is fed from a switch room located within Racecourse
Mill which feeds a distribution board located within the MRBPP electrical switch
room. Potable water, raw water and fire water are also provided through a
common services trench from the Racecourse Mill to the MRBPP site. This trench
also returns waste water from the MRBPP site to connect to the mill waste water
treatment system.
Steam for the facility is provided by an on-site LPG steam generator. The steam
generator is a TSG Thermic HPTS30 package water tube boiler capable of providing
470 kg/h steam at a pressure of 27 bar. Compressed air (Champion CSF11 11kW
rotary screw compressor with a capacity of 31 L/s at 7.8 bar) and chilled water are
also provided from on-site units located within the services room of the MRBPP. A
102
control room inside the MRBPP contains the PLC and operator interface stations.
Other services for the facility are either produced on-site or supplied under a supply
of services agreement with Mackay Sugar Ltd.
The facility has designated storage areas for both Class 3 and Class 8 hazardous
goods. The site contains a first flush waste water collection system and a dedicated
truck unloading area with spill containment. Waste water is able to collected and
stored in on-site storage tanks for collection and off-site disposal if required. Solid
wastes are also collected for off-site disposal.
8.6 Plant and equipment
Plant and equipment for the MRBPP facility has been selected to simulate a range
of processes typical of biochemical biorefineries and in particular to demonstrate
the processes required for soda based pretreatments and lignin recovery processes.
A typical biorefinery process is shown in Figure 8.1, in which the major products are
ethanol and lignin.
Figure 8.1 Typical biorefinery process diagram
One of the major considerations in the conceptual design and selection of plant and
equipment for the facility was the need to provide sufficient flexibility to
103
demonstrate several of the pretreatment processes described in Chapter 3 of this
thesis. While sugarcane bagasse was the feedstock of most interest, the facility had
to also be capable of processing a variety of other woody and fibrous feedstocks.
Providing the flexibility to simulate a range of pretreatment processes, feedstocks
and product options maximises the value of the facility both to the Australian
research community and to potential industry partners.
The requirement for flexible processing options and multiple product options
presented challenges in designing a fully integrated process. In particular, the
requirement to be able to undertake a variety of pretreatment processing options
required a novel approach to the design of the pretreatment reactor, as it was
clearly identified that no reactors were currently available on the market with the
capabilities required of the facility.
The techno-economic model described in Chapter 6 of this thesis was used to
provide detailed mass and energy balances of biorefinery processes (in particular
for caustic soda and mild acid processes). This provided data on the flowrates of
process streams and allowed selection of equipment size including pumping energy
requirements. Energy balance data were used to calculate the heat and power
requirements for processing heating, cooling and evaporation.
Results from the uncertainty assessment in the systems analysis and the analysis of
soda-based biorefinery processes clearly identified that the major focus of pilot
scale work needed to be in the areas of pretreatment, enzymatic hydrolysis and
fermentation. The high energy costs identified in the soda-based biorefinery
assessment highlighted the requirement for high solids concentration processing of
biomass and the need for minimal energy input in mechanical biomass size
reduction prior to pretreatment.
The biomass storage, preparation and weighing systems were constructed by Paxon
Packaging Pty Ltd from Melbourne. The integrated feeding system includes a feed
hopper, clump breaker to loosen large clumps of bagasse, vibrating table and sieve
tray for separating pith and ash if required, conveyor and linear weighing machine.
104
The main pretreatment reactor for the facility was constructed by Andritz Inc in
Glens Falls, NY. The batch pretreatment reactor is constructed mostly from
corrosion resistant Hastelloy C-2000 enabling simulation of many of the leading
pretreatment technologies with up to 25 kg of fibre per batch. The pretreatment
reactor consists of a horizontal pre-hydrolysis reactor with an integrated hydraulic
ram, vertical reactor for steam explosion, blow tank for collecting solid material
expelled from the reactor and a hydrolysate collection vessel. Chemicals and wash
water for the reactor are fed from two purpose built tanks constructed by TSG
Thermic.
The majority of the fermentation equipment and bioseparations equipment was
purchased from the Tridan Pty Ltd Albright & Wilson Australia CRC fermentation
facility located at the Albright & Wilson Australia manufacturing plant in Yarraville,
Melbourne. Key equipment purchased from this facility included:
- Stirred fermenters 10 L, 100 L, 1000 L, 10 000 L;
- Airlift fermenters 10 L, 100 L, 1000 L;
- Westfalia SB-7 disc stack centrifuge;
- Rotary drum vacuum filter;
- NIRO production minor spray drier;
- Fluidised bed drier;
- Steriliser; and
- Assorted feed tanks and pumps.
The continuous packed bed distillation column was also purchased second hand and
was a Davy McKee design.
A Mettler Toledo RCe1 reaction calorimeter with an integrated infra-red probe was
purchased for use in process development from Mettler Toledo Australia. While an
105
asset of the MRBPP facility, this item is permanently housed at the QUT Gardens
Point Campus in Brisbane.
The control system is a Schneider Electric Modicon TSX Micro PLC processor.
Supervisory control and data acquisition is undertaken using Citect software.
8.7 Lignin product recovery
One of the key co-products from the biorefinery is lignin. The economic assessment
of the soda-based biorefinery process highlighted the necessity of producing a
valuable product from the lignin component of the fibre in developing an
economically feasible process. As a result, the extraction, recovery and purification
of lignin became a key focus of the pilot plant design.
The pilot plant includes equipment for both the delignification of biomass
(pretreatment) and the subsequent recovery of lignin from chemical solvents. The
purified lignin can be manufactured and dried in significant quantities to enable
product development and testing and this work aims to reduce the uncertainty in
the future marketability and market value of soda-lignin.
8.8 Future developments
Commissioning of the MRBPP was completed in December 2010. Preliminary trials
of pretreatment, hydrolysis and fermentation have laid the foundation for further
validation of the techno-economic assessments undertaken in Chapter 6 and
Chapter 7 of this thesis. While the conceptual design of the pilot plant was a key
outcome of this research program, the conduct of pilot trials was not a component
of the work of this thesis but will be undertaken in on-going research with the
project partners.
The MRBPP is valuable research and development infrastructure for both the
Australian research community, future biomass-based industries and in particular
the Australian sugar industry. This facility provides unique subsidised infrastructure
106
for biomass utilisation, particularly focussed upon the enzymatic conversion of
cellulose into ethanol in an integrated biorefinery.
Additionally, the ability to produce novel co-products such as lignin allows
opportunities for large scale product development and testing.
The infrastructure will provide even greater value over time as it evolves to meet
the product diversification challenges of the next decade. This evolution will be
essential if the facility is to remain relevant to future research challenges. It is
expected that the MRBPP will have sufficient flexibility to undertake pilot trials on
fermentation technologies based on sugar, molasses and bioethanol process
streams to manufacture organic acids and other products.
It is envisaged that the MRBPP will in the future need to incorporate additional
technologies, including thermochemical processing technologies such as gasification
and pyrolysis including downstream catalytic processing. This will assist in ensuring
that the MRBPP remains at the forefront of bioenergy research and one of the
leading tools for facilitating the introduction of new products into Australian
industries.
107
Discussion
109
Chapter 9
Discussion
9.1 Introduction
This chapter provides an analysis of the work undertaken in the research
program and highlights the key findings of the research, the importance of this
research and recommendations for future work.
9.2 Achievement of research objectives and key findings
This section reviews the achievement of the research objectives outlined for this
research project in Chapter 1.
Objective 1 - Identify the key technical, economic and systemic factors
impacting upon investment in commercial scale facilities for the production of
ethanol from sugarcane bagasse in Australia
Chapter 2 provides an introductory analysis of the role of crude oil in transport
fuel use, the growing impact of biofuel use and an overview of the sugarcane
industry in Australia. Chapter 3 reviews the scientific research that has occurred
globally on the pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse. Chapter 4 provides an
analysis of the systemic factors influencing investment in commercial cellulosic
ethanol facilities and, through the use of Monte Carlo analysis, provides a
probabilistic analysis of the relative impact of assumption uncertainty on
investment risk for investment in cellulosic ethanol production. Chapter 6
provides a comprehensive assessment of a specific potential cellulosic ethanol
project in Australia and identifies through one and two component sensitivity
analyses the key impacts on project viability.
110
In general, these analyses conclude ethanol price, government production
incentives, feedstock price, capital cost, co-product revenue, cellulase cost and
energy cost have the major impact on project investment and a number of
strategies are proposed in Chapters 1 4 and Chapter 6 for reducing investment
risk and increasing the viability of cellulosic ethanol production in Australia.
Objective 2 - Explore leading technologies for the biochemical production
of ethanol from sugarcane bagasse to determine the conceptual
feasibility of the technology
Chapter 3 reviews the leading pretreatment technologies and the scientific work
that has been undertaken globally on sugarcane bagasse pretreatment. The
choice of pretreatment technology is the critical determinant of the style of
facility and determines many of the other technological requirements of the
facility. Chapter 6 analyses the technical and economic feasibility of a soda-based
biorefinery in Australia, producing ethanol and lignin in an integrated facility.
Chapter 7 analyses the economic feasibility of a leading but early stage
technology for reducing the cost of cellulase enzymes through the expression of
cellulase in sugarcane.
These chapters highlight the potential feasibility of this technology and the
conditions under which the technology becomes commercially viable, providing
recommendations relating to the choice of technology for managing project risk.
Objective 3 - Conceptualise and develop a framework for assessing the
interrelationships between energy use, feedstock availability and
potential cellulosic ethanol production of integrated sugar and bagasse-
based ethanol production facilities
In the systems analysis undertaken in Chapter 4, the interrelationships between
energy use and feedstock availability are clearly identified as a major factor in
understanding the feasibility of the cellulosic ethanol system. Chapter 5 identifies
the potential quantum of ethanol production from sugarcane in Australia and
explores the relationship between energy consumption, energy production
111
(cogeneration and ethanol production) and feedstock availability. Chapter 6
analyses through comprehensive technical and economic modelling the
relationship between energy use and project viability.
These chapters identify that ethanol from sugarcane has the potential to
contribute significantly to the transport fuel mix in Australia and that both
cogenerated electricity and ethanol production are complementary products
from integrated facilities. Technology choices that minimise overall energy use
are critical in maximising revenue and minimising process costs.
Objective 4 - Model the use of the framework through its application to
the design and construction of a pilot scale facility for demonstration of
technology for the production of ethanol from bagasse
Chapter 8 relates the details of the design and construction of the Mackay
Renewable Biocommodities Pilot Plant (MRBPP) through to the commencement
of facility commissioning. The process design of this facility, undertaken by the
author and supported by the work of this research program is a key outcome of
this research program and provides an on-going contribution to the further
research, development and techno-economic assessment of this important
technology in Australia.
Objective 5 - Communicate key outcomes to the Australian sugar industry
to develop a deeper understanding within the industry of the potential
opportunities and economic feasibility of the technology
Information reported in Chapter 3 and Chapter 8 of this thesis have been
presented as peer-reviewed conference papers to the Australian Society of Sugar
Cane Technologists (ASSCT) which is the leading research forum for the
Australian sugar industry. Two further papers will be presented to the same
forum in 2011. Chapter 6 has been presented to Australian sugar company
Mackay Sugar Ltd as a confidential research report for consideration at a senior
level in their organisation.
112
The construction of the MRBPP has been widely anticipated across the sugar
industry and the author has spoken to many conferences and groups within the
industry about the facility. This engagement has provoked considerable interest
and engagement in cellulosic ethanol technologies across the industry and
further reporting will occur as the MRBPP facility commences operations and
generates research outcomes.
9.3 Importance of research
This research program has provided a multi-dimensional analysis of the feasibility
of cellulosic ethanol from sugarcane in Australia, assessing the key factors
affecting industry viability and the likely impacts of these on investment.
Through engagement with project partners and the sugar industry research
community, the research outcomes have provided a deeper understanding of
cellulosic ethanol production at both a conceptual and project specific level.
Despite sugarcane being perhaps the best biomass feedstock for early stage
cellulosic ethanol production, such an integrated and multi-dimensional analysis
has not previously been undertaken in Australia, or to the authors knowledge
anywhere around the world for cellulosic ethanol production from sugarcane.
9.4 Recommendations for future work
The following recommendations are made for future work in understanding and
promoting the establishment of a viable cellulosic ethanol industry in Australia.
1. Explore the opportunities for energy reduction in integrated sugarcane
cellulosic ethanol facilities through the modelling of energy efficiency
measures and pinch analysis;
2. Explore the opportunities in sugarcane production regions for
supplementing the availability of fibre for cogeneration or ethanol
production with other new or existing fibre sources;
113
3. Explore the economic case for regional clustering of sugarcane processing
facilities for ethanol production;
4. Explore the business case for modified sugar milling operations for
integrated ethanol facilities from sugarcane juice and bagasse;
5. Explore the impact of possible government policy incentive measures on
promoting investment in cellulosic ethanol production from sugarcane,
and particularly measures relating to a carbon price or emissions trading
scheme; and
6. Explore the impact of higher fibre sugarcane on fibre availability for
cellulosic ethanol production and in particular, explore models for the
industry transition from processing current sugarcane varieties to
processing higher fibre varieties.
115
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Appendices
145
APPENDIX A
Supplementary data for Chapter 6
The supplementary data for Chapter 6 is not available in this version of the
thesis.
147
APPENDIX B
The Mackay Renewable
Biocommodities Pilot Plant
photographic record of construction
and equipment installation
This appendix provides a photographic record of the construction and equipment
installation for the Mackay Renewable Biocommodities Pilot Plant (MRBPP) from
the commencement of facility construction to the completion of equipment,
electrical and instrumentation installation.
149
Site infrastructure
The infrastructure for the MRBPP site consists of a three story factory building,
office and laboratory. To the west of the factory building is an outdoor pad
consisting of truck unloading area, Class 3 and Class 8 chemical storage facility, LPG
storage tank and waste water storage tanks.
Appendix Figure B.1 contains a photographic record of the construction of the site
infrastructure.
A Construction signage
B Preparation and levelling of site
C Laying of building foundations
D Concrete base of factory building
E Concrete base of factory building looking west toward Racecourse Mill
F Installation of block work for fermentation room and services rooms
G Framing for the concrete slab and factory building
H Pouring of the concrete slab
I Installation of the ATCO modular laboratory and office buildings
J Factory building looking toward the Racecourse Mill bagasse stockpile
K Factory building looking north-west
L Site photo looking east
M Internal photo of factory building (west)
N Internal photo of factory building (north)
O Top floor of factory building
P Office area during construction
Q Laboratory area during construction
R Completed exterior of factory building
S Site photo looking west
T Site photo looking east toward Racecourse Mill
150
G H
F E
C D
B A
151
K L
N
M
J I
152
Appendix Figure B.1 Photographic record of the construction of site infrastructure
T S
Q R
P O
153
Plant and equipment
The first stage of plant and equipment in the facility includes a biomass feeding and
weighing system supplied by Paxon Packaging Pty Ltd, a two-stage pretreatment
reactor supplied by Andritz Inc and chemical and wash water tanks supplied by
Thermic TSG.
Appendix Figure B.2 contains a photographic record of the plant and equipment
installed in the biomass feeding and pretreatment stages of the MRBPP facility.
A Biomass feeding system, conveyor and weighing machine
B Schematic of the Andritz two-stage pretreatment reactor
C Chemical and wash water feed tank for pretreatment reactor
D Pre-hydrolysis reactor
E Front view of the pre-hydrolysis reactor
F Vertical pressure reactor (steam explosion reactor)
G Reactor blow tank and hydrolysate tank
154
Appendix Figure B.2 Photographic record of the biomass feeding and
pretreatment stage equipment
A
B
C
E D
F G
155
The saccharification, fermentation, distillation and co-product recovery stages
contain a variety of equipment which can be configured in a flexible manner.
Appendix Figure B.3 contains a photographic record of the fermentation,
bioseparations and other equipment installed in the MRBPP facility.
A 100 L stirred fermenter
B 1000 L stirred fermenter
C 10 000 L stirred fermenter
D 10 L airlift fermenter
E 100 L airlift fermenter
F 1000 L airlift fermenter
G Fermenter feed tank
H Membrane filter
I Westfalia centrifuge
J Steriliser
K Rotary drum vacuum filter
L Spray drier
M Hydrolysis reactor
N Mettler Toledo RCe1 reaction calorimeter
156
E F
D C
B A
157
L K
J I
H G
158
Appendix Figure B.3 Photographic record of the plant and equipment installed in
the MRBPP facility
M
N
159
Opening of the MRBPP facility
The official opening of the MRBPP facility was held on the 9
th
July 2010. The facility
was opened by The Hon Anna Bligh MP, Premier of Queensland and Minister for the
Arts and Senator Kim Carr MP, Minister for Innovation, Industry, Science and
Research and supported by The Hon Tim Mulherin MP, Minister for Primary
Industries, Fisheries and Rural and Regional Queensland and Member for Mackay.
Appendix Figure B.4 contains a photographic record of the MRBPP opening.
A Opening ceremony
B Mr Andrew Cappello, Chairman, Mackay Sugar Ltd
C The Hon Anna Bligh MP
D Official party with the opening plaque (l r) Professor Peter Coaldrake,
Senator Kim Carr MP, The Hon Anna Bligh MP, Distinguished Professor James
Dale, Mr Andrew Cappello
E Senator Kim Carr MP, The Hon Anna Bligh MP and the author during the
official tour of the MRBPP facility
F The Hon Anna Bligh MP, Distinguished Professor James Dale, Senator Kim
Carr MP and the author in front of the Andritz pretreatment reactor during
the official tour of the facility
G Dr William Doherty discusses biorefinery value added products with guests
at the opening
H The MRBPP opening official plaque
160
Appendix Figure B.4 Photographic record of the opening of the MRBPP facility
B A
C D
F E
G H
161
Image credits
Photographs used in this appendix were provided by the author, Erika Fish, Jan
Zhang, Bernard Milford, John Bankie, Barry George, Heng-Ho Wong and Peter
Albertson.