Issue CXII

The contents of the Newsletter is not a recommendation, either implicit or explicit, to buy or sell emission permits.
Contact: David Boles, Compliance Markets -Direct: +3531 4433 584; Mob:00353 831744707
DBLM Solutions is partly funded by the Wicklow Enterprise Board.
Carbon Newsletter
DBLM Solutions
01 May 2014


The EUA Dec13 contract is currently at 5.46.
Technicals are bullish at the moment, however we
are currently at a resistance point. Another
compliance year draws to a close as the majority of
Industrial participants sit upon surpluses. Analysis
shows that the largest European Utilities are fully
covered out to 2015, which should take the edge
off demand in the short term. This should enable
small to medium size participants more
opportunities to cover their carbon exposure until
2020 for roughly one third the cost of pre-
compliance carbon purchases based on forecast
prices.
On the flip side, European power prices remain
close to decade long lows, which weighs heavy on
the carbon price. The inevitable power price rise is
likely to exert upward pressure on the carbon price.
Weekly
Recap
Nasdaq
EUA
Spot
Nasdaq
CER
Spot
Nasdaq
EUA
Dec13
Nasdaq
CER
Dec13
24/04/2014 5.73 0.15 5.77 0.17
25/04/2014 5.02 0.15 5.11 0.16
28/04/2014 5.20 0.16 5.25 0.15
29/04/2014 5.41 0.16 5.46 0.15
30/04/2014 5.40 0.15 5.46 0.15
Volumes lots - - - -
Week %

1.99% 0 2.32% 0



The EUA/CER spread widened this week to 5.25,
at close of business last night versus the 5.45
spread we witnessed last week and 5.39 the week
before.
Auctions
EEX held auctions last Thursday , Friday, Monday
& yesterday. Auction prices were 5.77,5.52,
5.21 & 5.39 respectively. The cover ratios for
the above auctions were 5.92,7.48,7.29 & 4.78
respectively.
Aviation
Germany issued fines to 61 aircraft operators to
countries including Russia and the US for non
submission under the EUETS. These fines
represent the first time fines have been issued for
non compliance of the EUETS since its inception
in 2005. Germany is not the only Nation that could
have issued fines for non compliance in 2012.
A quick glance at the Aviators listed in Ireland and
it becomes quickly apparent that the majority of
small emitters were non compliant for 2012. The
German fine issuance if paid will amount to 2.7
million. At a fine level of 100 a tonne not
submitted, this represents 27,000 tonnes of
emissions ignored. Officials stated that fine
issuance has been delayed until now, to avoid
international ambarrasment as participants, no
matter how small might flaunt EUETS rules.