Risk Calculus File

Tampa Prep 2009-2010
Whats the Risk?

Gonzo and Lison
1/68
TAMPA PREP RISK ASSESSMENT FILE 2009-2010
Tampa Prep Risk ssessment !i"e 2009-2010############################################################################################################################################1
$otes on the !i"e##########################################################################################################################################################################################%
1& ' $o War ()pp"ement 1/2###################################################################################################################################################################*
1& ' $o War ()pp"ement 2/2###################################################################################################################################################################+
2& ' $o War ,-t#######################################################################################################################################################################################6
2& ' .ts Good/########################################################################################################################################################################################0
2& ' $)1"ear War 2oesnt ,-tin1tion#################################################################################################################################################8
2& ' $)1"ear War 2oesnt ,-tin1tion#################################################################################################################################################9
2& ' T3 4zone######################################################################################################################################################################################11
2& ' T3 &"imate####################################################################################################################################################################################12
2& ' T3 41eans#####################################################################################################################################################################################1%
2& ' T3 $e)tron 5om6s#######################################################################################################################################################################1*
2& ' T3 ()per 7)tants#########################################################################################################################################################################1+
2& ' T3 (1he""#######################################################################################################################################################################################16
1& ' Pro6a6i"it8 ()pp"ement 1/2############################################################################################################################################################10
1& ' Pro6a6i"it8 ()pp"ement##################################################################################################################################################################18
2& ' Pro6a6i"it8 ,-t################################################################################################################################################################################20
1& ' 9ti" 5ad ()pp"ement######################################################################################################################################################################21
1& ' 9ti" 5ad ()pp"ement######################################################################################################################################################################2%
2& ' 9ti" 5ad ,-t####################################################################################################################################################################################2*
2& ' T3 9ti" .ne:ita6"e#########################################################################################################################################################################2+
2& ' T3 9ti" ;e8 to Ri<hts###################################################################################################################################################################26
2& ' T3 9ti" Greater Good/(o":es War###########################################################################################################################################20
2& ' T3 War/2eath = Worst .mpa1t#####################################################################################################################################################28
1& ' $o ;s ()pp"ement########################################################################################################################################################################29
1& ' $o ;s ()pp"ement########################################################################################################################################################################%0
1& ' $o ;s ()pp"ement########################################################################################################################################################################%1
1& ' $o ;s ()pp"ement########################################################################################################################################################################%2
1$& ' T3 $o Wars##################################################################################################################################################################################%*
T3 2eterren1e (o":es###############################################################################################################################################################################%6
T3 ,1onomi1 .nterdependan1e################################################################################################################################################################%0
T3 .nstit)tions &he1k###############################################################################################################################################################################%8
1$& ' $)1"ear War &a)ses ,-tin1tion 1/2###############################################################################################################################################%9
1$& ' $)1"ear War &a)ses ,-tin1tion 2/2###############################################################################################################################################*0
,-t >* ' 4zone###########################################################################################################################################################################################*1
1$& ' T3 Predi1tions 5ad 1/%#################################################################################################################################################################*2
1$& ' T3 Predi1tions 5ad 2/%#################################################################################################################################################################*%
1$& ' T3 Predi1tions 5ad %/%#################################################################################################################################################################**
,-t >+ ' Predi1tions .ne:ita6"e##################################################################################################################################################################*+
T3 7edia (ke?s Predi1tions###################################################################################################################################################################*6
T3 Predi1tions = (tate !ear 7on<erin<###################################################################################################################################################*0
T3 Po""s 5ad#############################################################################################################################################################################################*8
T3 ,rror Risks Too @i<h#########################################################################################################################################################################*9
T3 Tet"o1k################################################################################################################################################################################################+0
1$& ' T3 Risk ssessment 5ad 1/2########################################################################################################################################################+1
1$& ' T3 Risk ssessment 5ad 2/2########################################################################################################################################################+2
1$& ' T3 Pro6a6i"it8 !rame?ork 1/2#####################################################################################################################################################+%
1$& ' T3 Pro6a6i"it8 !rame?ork 1/2#####################################################################################################################################################+*
,-t >1 ' @i<h 7a<nit)de !irst##################################################################################################################################################################++
,-t >2 ' Lo? Pro6a6i"it8 2oesnt 7ean $o Risk#####################################################################################################################################+6
,-t >% ' 7a<nit)de Times Pro6a6i"it8######################################################################################################################################################+8
1$& ' 9ti" Good 1/2##################################################################################################################################################################################+9
1$& ' 9ti" Good 2/2##################################################################################################################################################################################61
2$& ' 9ti" Good ,-t#################################################################################################################################################################################62
!or e:er8 a1tion there is an eA)a" and opposite <o:ernment pro<ram ' 5o6 We""s
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
2/68
T3 ,n:ironmenta" ,thi1s#########################################################################################################################################################################6%
1$& ' ,-tin1tion 4)t?ei<hs ,thi1s##########################################################################################################################################################6*
,-t >1 ' !)t)re Generations######################################################################################################################################################################66
2$& ,-tin1tion Rhetori1 Good##################################################################################################################################################################60
1$& ' T3 ,-perts !rame?ork#################################################################################################################################################################68
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
%/68
NOTES ON THE FILE
(o this is a risk 1a"1)")s Bi"e# .t 6asi1a""8 has a"" oB the 1ards 8o)"" need Bor 8o)r impa1t 1a"1)")s that 8o)"" 6e doin<# (pe1iBi1a""8C the
reason ?h8 . made this Bi"eC ?as 6e1a)se . ?as tired oB not ha:in< a 9ti" Good Bront"ine prepped o)t# (o there are a 1o)p"e oB thin<s in
here that 8o) sho)"d 6e a?are oB#
!irstC there are se:era" 1& s)pp"ementa" 1ontentions that are in here# This ?i"" a""o? 8o) to retro Bit 8o)r 1& to 8o)r "ikin<#
5asi1a""8C iB 8o)re readin< "ots oB mora" impa1tsC 8o) ?ant the pro6a6i"it8 and )ti" ones# Lets sa8 )r readin< a 6i< disease aBBC 8o)
pro6a6"8 ?ant the no ?ar one# 4r iB 8o)re readin< a strai<ht )p ?or"d <o 6oom aBBC 8o) mi<ht ?ant to pre-empt somethin< "ike the
se1)rit8 ;#
(e1ondC there are se:era" 1$& Bront"ines to those 1ommon t8pes oB 1& 1ontentions that teams "ike to s"ip in# These are <eneri1C and
not in1redi6"8 6"o1ked o)tC 6)t the 1ards are there and 8o) 1an ?in an8 oB those de6ates iB 8o) need to#
ThirdC there is 1ontra6and in this Bi"e# .B 8o) Bind it and rea"ize ?hat it isC . ?o)"d hi<h"8 re1ommend 8o) not read it# .B . Bind o)t that
8o) ha:e read it ?hen 8o) didnt need toC . ?i"" persona""8 shank a 6it1hD That means E49 "e-D nd !riD nd dont 8o) dare <i:e it
to Wa""8C 2a:idD nd ,mi"8C dont e:en 6otherC F)st ki1k the p"an and <o Bor 1ondoD
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
*/68
1AC NO WAR SUPPLEMENT 1/2
Contention X Impact Calculus
The international system prevents wareconomic, military, and ideological trends have changed.
Fettweiss, 200 Gpri"C &hristopherC proB se1)rit8 st)dies ' na:a" ?ar 1o""e<eC &omparati:e (trate<8 22#2H
7a1kinder 1an 6e Bor<i:en Bor Bai"in< to anti1ipate the titani1 1han<es in the B)ndamenta" nat)re oB the internationa" s8stem m)1h more readi"8 than 1an his s)11essors#
.ndeedC 7a1kinder and his 1ontemporaries a 1ent)r8 a<o ?o)"d hard"8 re1o<nize the r)"es 68 ?hi1h the ?or"d is r)n toda8Imost si<niBi1ant"8C )n"ike their eraC o)rs is
one in ?hi1h the danger o! ma"or war has #een removedC ?here Wor"d War ... isC in 7i1hae" 7ande"6a)ms ?ordsC Jsome?here 6et?een impossi6"e
and )n"ike"8#K2+ Geopo"iti1a" and <eo-strate<i1 ana"8sis has not 8et 1ome to terms ?ith ?hat ma8 6e the 1entra"C most si<niBi1ant trend oB internationa" po"iti1s3 <reat
po?er ?arC maFor ?ar oB the kind that pit the stron<est states a<ainst ea1h otherC is no? o#solete#26 Lohn 7)e""er has 6een the most
:isi6"eC 6)t 68 no means the on"8C ana"8st ar<)in< that the 1han1es oB a Wor"d War ... emer<in< in the ne-t 1ent)r8 are ne-t to ni"#20 7)e""er and his 1ontemporaries
1ite three maFor ar<)ments s)pportin< this re:o")tionar8C and 1"ear"8 1ontro:ersia"C 1"aim#
!irstC and most o6:io)s"8C modern mi"itar8 te1hno"o<8 has made maFor ?ar too e-pensi:e to 1ontemp"ate# s Lohn ;ee<an has ar<)edC it is
hard to see ho? n)1"ear ?ar 1o)"d 6e 1onsidered Jan e-tension oB po"iti1s 68 other meansKIat the :er8 "eastC n)1"ear ?eapons
remo:e the possi6i"it8 oB :i1tor8 Brom the 1a"1)"ations oB the ?o)"d-6e a<<ressor#28 Their :a")e as "e:era<e in dip"oma18 has not 6een
dramati1C at "east in the "ast Be? de1adesC 6e1a)se n)1"ear threats are not 1redi6"e in the kind oB disa<reements that arise 6et?een
modern <reat po?ers# .t is )n"ike"8 that a <ame oB n)1"ear J1hi1kenK ?o)"d "ead to the o)t6reak oB a maFor ?ar# 4thers ha:e ar<)ed
thatC ?hi"e n)1"ear ?eapons s)re"8 make ?ar an irrationa" e-er1iseC the destr)1ti:e po?er oB modern 1on:entiona" ?eapons make
toda8s <reat po?ers shy away !rom direct con!lict .29 The ?or"d ?ars dramati1a""8 reinBor1ed n<e""s ?arnin<sC and toda8 no one
is ea<er to repeat those e-perien1esC espe1ia""8 no? that the 1as)a"t8 "e:e"s amon< 6oth so"diers and 1i:i"ians ?o)"d 6e e:en hi<her#
(e1ondC the shiBt Brom the ind)stria" to the inBormation a<e that seems to 6e <rad)a""8 o11)rrin< in man8 ad:an1ed so1ieties has 6een
a11ompanied 68 a ne? deBinition oB po?erC and a ne? s8stem oB in1enti:es ?hi1h a"" 6)t remo:e the possi6i"it8 that maFor ?ar 1o)"d
e:er 6e a 1ost-eBBi1ient e-er1ise# The rapid e1onomi1 e:o")tion that is s?eepin< m)1h oB the ?or"dC en1aps)"ated in the
J<"o6a"izationK metaphor so Bashiona6"e in the media and 6)siness 1omm)nitiesC has 6een a11ompanied 68 an e:o")tion in the ?a8
nationa" ?ea"th is a11)m)"ated#%0 !or mi""enniaC territor8 ?as the main o6Fe1t oB ?ar 6e1a)se it ?as dire1t"8 re"ated to nationa" presti<e and po?er# s ear"8 as
1986 Ri1hard Rose1ran1e re1o<nized that Jt?o ?or"ds oB internationa" re"ationsK ?ere emer<in<C di:ided o:er the A)estion oB the )ti"it8 oB territoria" 1onA)est#%1 The
inter:enin< 8ears ha:e ser:ed on"8 to stren<then the ar<)ment that the maFor ind)stria" po?ersC A)ite )n"ike their "ess-de:e"oped nei<h6orsC seem to
ha:e rea1hed the re:o")tionar8 1on1")sion that territor8 is not dire1t"8 re"ated to their nationa" ?ea"th and presti<e# !or these statesC
wealth and power are more li$ely to derive !rom an increase in economic, rather than military, reach# $ationa" ?ea"th and presti<eC
and thereBore po?erC are no "on<er dire1t"8 re"ated to territoria" 1ontro"#%2 The e1onomi1 in1enti:es Bor ?ar are thereBore not as 1"ear as the8 on1e ma8 ha:e 6een#
.n1reasin<"8C it seems that the most po?erB)" states p)rs)e prosperit8 rather than po?er# .n ,d?ard L)tt?aks termino"o<8C <eopo"iti1s is s"o?"8 6ein< rep"a1ed 68
J<eoe1onomi1sCK ?here Jthe methods oB 1ommer1e are disp"a1in< mi"itar8 methodsI?ith disposa6"e 1apita" in "ie) oB Birepo?erC 1i:i"ian inno:ation in "ie) oB mi"itar8'
te1hni1a" ad:an1ementC and market penetration in "ie) oB <arrisons and 6ases#K%% L)st as ad:an1es in ?eaponr8 ha:e in1reased the 1ost oB Bi<htin<C a so1ioe1onomi1
e:o")tion has red)1ed the re?ards that a maFor ?ar 1o)"d possi6"8 6rin<# n<e""s maFor error ?as one that has 6een repeated o:er and o:er a<ain in the so1ia" s1ien1es
e:er sin1eIhe o:erestimated the Jrationa"it8K oB h)manit8# n<e"" re1o<nized ear"ier than most that the ind)stria"ization oB mi"itar8 te1hno"o<8 and e1onomi1
interdependen1e ass)red that the 1osts oB a ,)ropean ?ar ?o)"d 1ertain"8 o)t?ei<h an8 potentia" 6eneBitsC 6)t he ?as not a6"e to 1on:in1e his 1ontemporaries ?ho ?ere
not read8 to <i:e )p the instit)tion oB ?ar# The idea oB ?ar ?as sti"" appea"in<Ithe normati:e1ost/6eneBit ana"8sis sti"" ti"ted in the Ba:or oB Bi<htin<C and that pro:ed to
6e the more important Ba1tor# Toda8C there is reason to 6e"ie:e that this normati:e 1a"1)"ation ma8 ha:e 1han<ed# Bter the ?arC n<e"" noted that the on"8 thin<s that
1o)"d ha:e pre:ented the ?ar ?ere Js)rrenderin< oB 1ertain dominationsC a re1astin< oB patrioti1 idea"sC a re:o")tion oB ideas#K%* The third and Bina" ar<)ment oB
n<e""s s)11essors is that toda8 s)1h a re:o")tion oB ideas has o11)rredC that a normati:e e:o")tion has 1a)sed a shiBt in the r)"es that <o:ern state intera1tion# The
re:o")tionar8 potentia" oB ideas sho)"d not 6e )nderestimated# 5e"ieBsC ideo"o<iesC and ideas are oBtenC as 2ah" notesC Ja maFor independent :aria6"eCK ?hi1h ?e i<nore
at o)r peri"#%+ J.deasCK added Lohn 7)e""erC are :er8 oBten Bor1es themse":esC not B"otsam on the tide oB 6roader so1ia" or e1onomi1 patterns # # # it does not seem ?ise in
this area to i<nore phenomena that 1annot 6e easi"8 meas)redC treated ?ith 1risp pre1isionC or pro6ed ?ith ded)1ti:e pana1he#%6 The heart oB this ar<)ment is
the Jmora" pro<ressK that has J6ro)<ht a 1han<e in attit)des a6o)t internationa" ?arK amon< the <reat po?ers oB the ?or"d C%0 1reatin<
Bor the Birst timeC % an almost universal sense that the deli#erate launching o! a war can no longer #e "usti!ied .& %8 t times "eaders oB
the past ?ere 1ompe""ed 68 the masses to deBend the nationa" honorC 6)t toda8 pop)"ar press)res p)sh Bor pea1eB)" reso")tions to disp)tes 6et?een ind)stria"ized states#
This normati:e shiBt has rendered ?ar 6et?een <reat po?ers Js)6rationa""8 )nthinka6"eCK remo:ed Brom the set oB options Bor po"i18 makersC F)st as d)e"in< is no "on<er
a part oB the set oB options Bor the same 1"asses Bor ?hi1h it ?as on1e 1entra" to the 1on1ept oB mas1)"init8 and honor# s 7)e""er e-p"ainedC 2)e"in<C a Borm oB :io"en1e
Bamed and Ba6"ed Bor 1ent)riesC is a:oided not mere"8 6e1a)se it has 1eased to seem Mne1essar8C 6)t 6e1a)se it has s)nk Brom tho)<ht as a :ia6"eC 1ons1io)s possi6i"it8#
Eo) 1ant Bi<ht a d)e" iB the idea oB doin< so ne:er o11)rs to 8o) or 8o)r opponent#%9 58 e-tensionC states 1annot Bi<ht ?ars iB doin< so does not o11)r to them or to
their opponent# s n<e"" dis1o:eredC the Ba1t that maFor ?ar ?as B)ti"e ?as not eno)<h to 6rin< a6o)t its endIpeop"e had to 6e"ie:e that it ?as B)ti"e# n<e""s
s)11essors s)<<est that s)1h a 6e"ieB no? e-ists in the ind)stria" Nand postind)stria"O states oB the ?or"dC and this Ja)tonomo)s po?er oB ideasCK to 6orro? !ran1is
!)k)8amas termC has 6ro)<ht a6o)t the end oB maForC <reat po?er ?ar#*0
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
+/68
1AC NO WAR SUPPLEMENT 2/2
'nd, nuclear war doesn(t escalate glo#ally.
)artin, *+,2 N5rianC ProBessor oB (o1ia" (1ien1es in the (1hoo" oB (o1ia" (1ien1esC 7edia and &omm)ni1ation at the 9ni:ersit8 oB
Wo""on<on<C Lo)rna" oB Pea1e Resear1hC Po"# 19C $o# *C pp# 280-%00 http3//???#)o?#ed)#a)/arts/sts/6martin/p)6s/82Fpr#htm"O
.t oBten has 6een ar<)ed that the )se oB a Be? n)1"ear ?eapons 1o)"d "ead C <rad)a""8 or s)dden"8C to an a""-o)t n)1"ear ?ar 6et?een the
s)perpo?ers# 5)t it is a"so at "east possi6"e that a n)1"ear e-1han<e 1o)"d o11)r ?itho)t this "eadin< to a""-o)t ?ar# n)1"ear ?ar
mi<ht 6e ?a<ed so"e"8 in the 7idd"e ,astQ or an Re-1han<eR mi<ht o11)r 1onsistin< oB n)1"ear atta1ks 68 the 9( on remote insta""ations
in so)thern (o:iet 9nion and 68 the (o:iet 9nion on remote 9( insta""ations in )stra"iaQ or Rta1ti1a"R n)1"ear ?eapons mi<ht 6e )sed
in a 1onBrontation restri1ted to ,)ropeC or to the 6order re<ion 6et?een &hina and the (o:iet 9nion# The "ike"ihood oB an8 s)1h
possi6i"ities is a matter oB some disp)te# What sho)"d not 6e in disp)te is the possi6i"it8 - ?hate:er assessment is made oB its
"ike"ihood - that a nuclear war can occur which is less than all-out glo#al nuclear war #
nti-?ar peop"e - and others - spend a "ot oB time ar<)in< that "imited n)1"ear ?ar is :irt)a""8 impossi6"e# Their main reason Bor
ar<)in< a<ainst mi"itar8 strate<ies Bor "imited n)1"ear ?ar seems to 6e that this possi6i"it8 makes n)1"ear ?ar seem more p"a)si6"e# 5)t
p"a)si6"e to ?hom? 7i"itar8 "eaders and nationa" se1)rit8 mana<ers are not "ike"8 to 6e s?a8ed 68 ar<)ments ad:an1ed 68 the anti-
?ar mo:ement Ntho)<h the8 ma8 6e s?a8ed 68 its po"iti1a" stren<thO# (o the ar<)ment that "imited n)1"ear ?ar is impossi6"e has
impa1t main"8 on the p)6"i1C ?hi1h is p)shed into a""-or-nothin< thinkin<C "eadin< to apath8 and resi<nation#
7)1h oB the ar<)mentation presented 68 anti-?ar peop"e 1riti1isin< the 1on1ept oB "imited n)1"ear ?ar seems to 6e a"most a reB"e-
a1tion a<ains t p"annin< 68 mi"itarists# .t is important to rea"ise that strate<i1 p"annin< a6o)t "imited n)1"ear ?ar is not a)tomati1a""8
s)spe1t F)st 6e1a)se s)1h thinkin< is done 68 mi"itar8 p"anners# .t is entire"8 possi6"e Bor pea1e a1ti:ists to think a6o)t and to prepare
their o?n strate<ies to 1onBront the po"iti1a" 1onseA)en1es oB n)1"ear ?arC and B)rthermore to do this in a ?a8 ?hi1h red)1es the
"ike"ihood oB n)1"ear ?ar in the Birst p"a1e#G29H
'nd, even i! war does escalate, it won(t cause e.tinction.
)artin, *+,2 N5rianC ProBessor oB (o1ia" (1ien1es in the (1hoo" oB (o1ia" (1ien1esC 7edia and &omm)ni1ation at the 9ni:ersit8 oB
Wo""on<on<C Lo)rna" oB Pea1e Resear1hC Po"# 19C $o# *C pp# 280-%00 http3//???#)o?#ed)#a)/arts/sts/6martin/p)6s/82Fpr#htm"O
To s)mmarise the a6o:e points, a ma"or glo#al nuclear war in which pop)"ation 1entres in the /0, 0oviet /nion, 1urope and
China ware targeted, with no e!!ective civil de!ence measures ta$en, could $ill dire1t"8 perhaps *00 to 230 million people#
Induced e!!ectsC in parti1)"ar star:ation or epidemi1s Bo""o?in< a<ri1)"t)ra" Bai")re or e1onomi1 6reakdo?nC might add up to several
hundred million deaths to the tota"C though this is most uncertain#
0uch an e:ent)a"it8 would #e a catastrophe oB enormo)s proportionsC #ut it is !ar !rom e.tinction. 1ven in the most e.treme case
there would remain a"i:e some *000 mi""ion peop"eC a6o)t nine-tenths o! the world4s population , most o! them una!!ected
ph8si1a""8 68 the n)1"ear ?ar# The Bo""o?in< areas ?o)"d 6e re"ati:e"8 )ns1athedC )n"ess n)1"ear atta1ks ?ere made in these re<ions3
(o)th and &entra" meri1aC Bri1aC the 7idd"e ,astC the .ndian s)61ontinentC (o)theast siaC )stra"asiaC 41eania and "ar<e parts oB
&hina# ,:en in the mid-"atit)des oB the northern hemisphere ?here most oB the n)1"ear ?eapons ?o)"d 6e e-p"odedC areas upwind o!
nuclear attac$s would remain !ree o! hea:8 radioa1ti:e contaminationC s)1h as Port)<a"C .re"and and 5ritish &o")m6ia#
7an8 people, perhaps espe1ia""8 in the pea1e mo:ementC #elieve that glo#al nuclear war will lead to the death o! most or all o! the
world4s population.5*26 7et the availa#le scienti!ic evidence provides no #asis Bor this 6e"ieB# !)rthermore, there seem to #e no
convincing scienti!ic arguments that nuclear war could cause h)man e.tinction#G1%H .n parti1)"arC the idea o! 4over$ill4C iB taken
to imp"8 the 1apa1it8 to ki"" e:er8one on earthC is hi<h"8 misleading#G1*H
In the a#sence o! any positive evidence, statements that nuclear war will lead to the death o! all or most people on earth should
#e considered e.aggerations# .n most 1ases the e-a<<eration is )nintendedC sin1e peop"e ho"din< or statin< a 6e"ieB in n)1"ear
e-tin1tion are A)ite sin1ere#G1+H
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
6/68
2AC NO WAR EXT
)a"or war is o#solete nuclear weapons and rising cost chec$ aggression
7i1hae" )andel#aumC meri1an Borei<n po"i18 proBessor at the $itze (1hoo" oB d:an1ed .nternationa" (t)dies at Lohns @opkins
9ni:ersit8C 19++ J.s 7aFor War 46so"ete?KC http3//???#1iaonet#or</1onB/1Br10/
78 ar<)ment sa8sC ta1it"8C that ?hi"e this point oB :ie?C ?hi1h ?as ?ide"8 6e"ie:ed 100 8ears a<oC ?as not tr)e thenC there are reasons
to think that it is tr)e no?# What is that ar<)ment? .t is that ma"or war is o#solete. 58 maFor ?arC . mean ?ar ?a<ed 68 the most
po?erB)" mem6ers oB the internationa" s8stemC )sin< a"" oB their reso)r1es o:er a protra1ted period oB time ?ith re:o")tionar8
<eopo"iti1a" 1onseA)en1es# There ha:e 6een Bo)r s)1h ?ars in the modern period3 the ?ars oB the !ren1h Re:o")tionC Wor"d War .C
Wor"d War ..C and the &o"d War# !e? tho)<h the8 ha:e 6eenCtheir 1onseA)en1es ha:e 6een mon)menta"# The8 areC 68 BarC the most
inB")entia" e:ents in modern histor8# 7odern histor8 ?hi1h 1anC in Ba1tC 6e seen as a series oB aBtersho1ks to these Bo)r earthA)akes# (o
iB . am ri<htC then ?hat has 6een the motor oB po"iti1a" histor8 Bor the "ast t?o 1ent)ries that has 6een t)rned oBB? This ?arC . ar<)eC this
kind oB ?arC is o6so"eteQ "ess than impossi6"eC 6)t more than )n"ike"8# What do . mean 68 o6so"ete? .B . ma8 A)ote Brom the arti1"e on
?hi1h this presentation is 6asedC a 1op8 oB ?hi1h 8o) re1ei:ed ?hen 1omin< inC J 7aFor ?ar is o6so"ete in a ?a8 that st8"es oB dress
are o6so"ete. It is something that is out o! !ashion and, while it could #e revived, there is no present demand !or it. 7aFor ?ar is
o6so"ete in the ?a8 that s"a:er8C d)e"in<C or Boot-6indin< are o6so"ete# .t is a so1ia" pra1ti1e that ?as on1e 1onsidered norma"C )seB)"C
e:en desira6"eC 6)t that no? seems odio)s# .t is o6so"ete in the ?a8 that the 1entra" p"annin< oB e1onomi1 a1ti:it8 is o6so"ete# .t is a
pra1ti1e on1e re<arded as a p"a)si6"eC indeed a s)periorC ?a8 oB a1hie:in< a so1ia""8 desira6"e <oa"C 6)t that 1han<in< 1onditions ha:e
made ineBBe1ti:e at 6estC 1o)nterprod)1ti:e at ?orst#K Wh8 is this so? 7ost simp"8C the costs have risen and the #ene!its o! ma"or
war have shriveled. The costs o! !ighting such a war are e.tremely high #ecause o! the advent in the middle o! this century o!
nuclear weapons, #ut they would have #een high even had man$ind never split the atom # s Bor the #ene!itsC these no? seemC at
"east Brom the point oB :ie? oB the maFor po?ersC modest to non-e.istent# The traditiona" moti:es Bor ?arBare are in retreatC iB not
e-tin1t# War is no "on<er re<arded 68 an8oneC pro6a6"8 not e:en (addam @)ssein aBter his )nhapp8 e-perien1eC as a pa8in<
proposition# nd as Bor the ideas on 6eha"B oB ?hi1h maFor ?ars ha:e 6een ?a<ed in the pastC these are in steep de1"ine# @ere the
1o""apse oB 1omm)nism ?as an important mi"estoneC Bor that ideo"o<8 ?as inherent"8 6e""i1ose# This is not to sa8 that the ?or"d has
rea1hed the end oB ideo"o<8Q A)ite the 1ontrar8# 5)t the ideo"o<8 that is no? in the as1endantC o)r o?nC "i6era"ismC tends to 6e pa1iBi1#
7oreo:erC . ?o)"d ar<)e that three post-Cold 8ar developments have made ma"or war even less li$ely than it ?as aBter 19*+#
4ne oB these is the rise o! democracy, !or democracies , . 6e"ie:eC tend to #e peace!ul # $o? 1arried to its most e-treme 1on1")sionC
this e:ent)ates in an ar<)ment made 68 some prominent po"iti1a" s1ientists that demo1ra1ies ne:er <o to ?ar ?ith one another# .
?o)"dnt <o that Bar# . dont 6e"ie:e that this is a "a? oB histor8C "ike a "a? oB nat)reC 6e1a)se . 6e"ie:e there are no s)1h "a?s oB
histor8# 5)t . do 6e"ie:e there is somethin< in it# . 6e"ie:e there is a pea1eB)" tenden18 inherent in demo1ra18# $o? its tr)e that one
important 1a)se oB ?ar has not 1han<ed ?ith the end oB the &o"d War# That is the str)1t)re oB the internationa" s8stemC ?hi1h is
anar1hi1# nd rea"istsC to ?hom !areed has reBerred and oB ?hom Lohn 7earsheimer and o)r <)est ;en Wa"tz are perhaps the t?o
most "eadin< e-ponents in this 1o)ntr8 and the ?or"d at the momentC ar<)e that that str)1t)re determines internationa" a1ti:it8C Bor it
"eads so:erei<n states to ha:e to prepare to deBend themse":esC and those preparations sooner or "ater iss)e in ?ar# . ar<)eC ho?e:erC
that a post-&o"d War inno:ation 1o)ntera1ts the eBBe1ts oB anar1h8# This is ?hat . ha:e 1a""ed in m8 1996 6ookC The 2a?n oB Pea1e in
,)ropeC 1ommon se1)rit8# 58 1ommon se1)rit8 . mean a regime o! negotiated arms limits that reduce the insecurity that anarchy
inevita#ly produces #y transparency-every state can $now what weapons every other state has and ?hat it is doin< ?ith them-
and thro)<h the prin1ip"e oB deBense dominan1eC the re1onBi<)ration thro)<h ne<otiations oB mi"itar8 Bor1es to ma$e them more
suita#le !or de!ense and less !or attac$. (ome 1a:eats areC indeedC in order ?here 1ommon se1)rit8 is 1on1erned# .ts not )ni:ersa"#
.t e-ists on"8 in ,)rope# nd there it is 1ertain"8 not irre:ersi6"e# nd . sho)"d add that ?hat . ha:e 1a""ed 1ommon se1)rit8 is not a
1a)seC 6)t a 1onseA)en1eC oB the maFor Bor1es that ha:e made ?ar "ess "ike"8# 0tates enter into common security arrangements
when they have already, !or other reasons, decided that they do not wish to go to war. We""C the third Beat)re oB the post-&o"d
War internationa" s8stem that seems to me to "end itse"B to ?ar"essness is the no:e" distin1tion 6et?een the peripher8 and the 1oreC
6et?een the po?erB)" states and the "ess po?erB)" ones# This ?as pre:io)s"8 a 1a)se oB 1onB"i1t and no? is Bar "ess important# To
A)ote Brom the arti1"e a<ainC J Whi"e Bor m)1h oB re1orded histor8 "o1a" 1onB"i1ts ?ere a6sor6ed into <reat-po?er 1onB"i1tsC in the
?ake oB the &o"d WarC ?ith the ind)stria" demo1ra1ies de6e""i1ised and R)ssia and &hina preo11)pied ?ith interna" aBBairsC there is no
<reat-po?er 1onB"i1t into ?hi1h the man8 "o1a" 1onB"i1ts that ha:e er)pted 1an 6e a6sor6ed#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
0/68
2AC ITS GOOD
'. 9uclear war prevents environmental destruction it stops activities that destroy the environment
:rauer 00NL)r<enC ProBessor oB ,1onomi1s at )<)sta (tateC JThe ,BBe1t oB War on the $at)ra" ,n:ironmentCK 6-10C
http3//???#a)<#ed)/Ss6aFm6/paper-"ondon%#P2!O
The most astonishin<C 6)t ?e"" s)pportedC 1on1")sion is that the most dama<in< impa1t on the nat)ra" en:ironment is not ?arC 6)t pea1etime
1ommer1e# !or e-amp"eC Bor the period oB 16 7a8 to 12 L)ne 1991C the amo)nt oB oi" 1ons)med 68 the ;)?aiti Bires amo)nted to
a6o)t the 9( dai"8 oi" import Nand 1ons)mptionO# The heat o)tp)t ?as eA)i:a"ent to a +00-a1re Borest Bire Nan ann)a" 1ommonp"a1e e:ent
aro)nd the ?or"dOQ parti1)"ate emission ?as eA)a" to a6o)t 10 per1ent oB dai"8 emitted ?or"d?ide 6iomass 6)rnin<Q 1ar6on dio-ide re"eases ?ere eA)a" to a6o)t 2
per1ent oB dai"8 ?or"d?ide re"easesQ and s)"ph)r dio-ide re"eases ?ere eA)a" to near"8 60 per1ent oB dai"8 9( e"e1tri1 )ti"ities emissions N,ar"eC 1992C p# 128O# .n a
?ordC the en:ironmenta""8 harmB)" re"eases amo)nted to a Bra1tion oB ?hat happened e"se?here aro)nd the ?or"d on a dai"8 6asis# This
s)<<ests that to the nat)ra" en:ironmentC 1ontin)o)sC rapa1io)s pea1etime 1ommer1e is more harmB)" than the sporadi1 ?ar# ,:en as a
"on<-"astin< ?ar s)1h as the (e1ond .ndo1hina War in PietnamC &am6odiaC and Laos "eBt the nat)ra" en:ironment in tattersC 1omparisons ?ith re"ati:e"8 ?ar-)naBBe1ted
nei<h6orin< 1o)ntries s)1h as .ndonesiaC 7a"a8siaC 78anmar N5)rmaOC and Thai"and sho? that the nat)ra" en:ironment in the "atter set oB 1o)ntries is m)1h more
dama<ed than in the Bormer N)d)6onC 1991O# The most "ike"8 reason Bor this 1on1")sion to emer<e is that ?ar )"timate"8 aims at disr)ption oB h)man
a1ti:itiesC and ?itho)t A)estion it ish)man a1ti:it8 thatC in t)rnC destro8s nat)ra" en:ironments # ,ri1 !is1herC senior :i1e-president Bor s1ien1e and
san1t)aries at the $ationa" )d)6on (o1iet8 in the 9(C ?rites3 JThe tota" dama<e inB"i1ted on the ,arth 68 re1ent ?ars pa"es in 1omparison to that
?ro)<ht 68 pea1etime ha6itat destr)1tionC ?hi1h in itse"B is a kind oB si"ent ?ar that h)mans are ?a<in< a<ainst other inha6itants oB the p"anetK N)d)6onC
1991C p# 96O# Writer and 1riti1 Lames !a""o?C no Briend oB ?arC min1es no ?ords either3 J### sias e-perien1e indi1ates that ?ar 1an 6e "ess dama<in<than
pea1e ### ?ar is one oB the "ess en:ironmenta""8 dama<in< a1ti:ities that peop"e )ndertake ### Bor no?C pea1e is a 6i<<er en:ironmenta"
pro6"em than ?arK N)d)6onC 1991C pp# 9*- 9+O# nd 7a"1o"m 5ro?neC Pietnam ?ar 1orrespondent and "ater senior s1ien1e ?riter Bor The $e? Eork TimesC
raises the rhetori1a" "e:e" e:en 6e8ond that3 J### . 1annot ima<ine e:en a n)1"ear ?ar as destr)1ti:e to ?i"d"iBe as the eBBe1ts oB )n1he1ked h)man
reprod)1tion ### the dead"iest ?ar is not 6et?een men# .t is the ?ar mankind is mind"ess"8 ?a<in< a<ainst other "i:in< thin<s in the name oB ?hat $azi German8 1a""ed
Le6ensra)m ###K N)d)6onC 1991C p# 91O# The re1o<nition that pea1e is en:ironmenta""8 )ns)staina6"e and destr)1ti:e "ed to the en:ironmenta" mass mo:ement o:er the
past A)arter 1ent)r8 NseeC e#<#C Ea"eC 2000C Bor an attempt to 1onstr)1t an ,n:ironmenta" ()staina6i"it8 .nde-C ,(.O# 5)t in the "iterat)re )nder re:ie?C Be? a)thors
address as 6asi1 a A)estion oB ?hat e-a1t"8 is meant 68 the nat)ra" en:ironment# .nstead ?hat one BreA)ent"8 Binds is the imp"i1it position that en:ironmenta" destr)1tion
itse"B has 6e1ome a nationa" and internationa" se1)rit8 iss)e and th)s 1a)sa"it8 is re:ersed3 Brom the impa1t oB ?ar on the en:ironment to the 1ommer1ia" destr)1tion oB
the en:ironment :ia reso)r1e dep"etion to ?ar Nsee endnote 2O# !or someC this is Ja rhetori1a" de:i1e aimed at dr)mmin< )p <reater s)pport Bor meas)res to prote1t the
en:ironmentK NLe:8C 199+C p# %6O# Th)sC one s)6<ro)p in this "iterat)re ' Jen:ironmenta" e-tremistsK ' ar<)es that ?hat is important is not ne1essari"8 to pre:ent ?ar
6)t to pre:ent en:ironmenta" 1o""apse ?hether en<endered 68 ?ar or 68 pea1e# nother s)6<ro)p ' Jh)manitarian e-tremistsK ' takes a 1ontrar8 position3 ?e do not
?ish Bor ?arC and the reason ?e do not ?ish Bor ?ar is not that ?ar is dama<in< to the en:ironment 6)t that ?ar is dama<in< to h)mans and their ?e""-6ein<#
:. 1nvironmental destruction ris$s e.tinction
2a:id $# ;iner NL)d<e d:o1ate Genera"s &orps oB 9( rm8O *++2 7i"itar8 La? Re:ie?C Le-is
$o spe1ies has e:er dominated its Be""o? spe1ies as man has# .n most 1asesC peop"e ha:e ass)med the God-"ike po?er oB "iBe and death -- e-tin1tion or s)r:i:a" -- o:er
the p"ants and anima"s oB the ?or"d# !or most oB histor8C mankind p)rs)ed this domination ?ith a sin<"e-minded determination to master the ?or"dC tame the ?i"dernessC
and e-p"oit nat)re Bor the ma-im)m 6eneBit oB the h)man ra1e# n60 .n past mass e-tin1tion episodesC as man8 as ninet8 per1ent oB the e-istin< spe1ies perishedC and 8et
the ?or"d mo:ed Bor?ardC and ne? spe1ies rep"a1ed the o"d# (o ?h8 sho)"d the ?or"d 6e 1on1erned no?? The prime reason is the ?or"dRs s)r:i:a"# Like a""
anima" "iBeC h)mans "i:e oBB oB other spe1ies# t some pointC the n)m6er oB spe1ies 1o)"d de1"ine to the point at ?hi1h the e1os8stem
Bai"sC and then h)mans a"so ?o)"d 6e1ome e-tin1t. $o one kno?s ho? man8 GT101H spe1ies the ?or"d needs to s)pport h)man "iBeC and to Bind o)t -- 68
a""o?in< 1ertain spe1ies to 6e1ome e-tin1t -- ?o)"d not 6e so)nd po"i18# .n addition to BoodC spe1ies oBBer man8 dire1t and indire1t 6eneBits to mankind#
n68 2# ,1o"o<i1a" Pa")e# -- ,1o"o<i1a" :a")e is the :a")e that spe1ies ha:e in maintainin< the en:ironment# PestC n69 erosionC and B"ood 1ontro" are prime 6eneBits
1ertain spe1ies pro:ide to man# P"ants and anima"s a"so pro:ide additiona" e1o"o<i1a" ser:i1es -- po"")tion 1ontro"C n00 o-8<en prod)1tionC se?a<e treatmentC and
6iode<radation# n01 %# (1ientiBi1 and 9ti"itarian Pa")e# -- (1ientiBi1 :a")e is the )se oB spe1ies Bor resear1h into the ph8si1a" pro1esses oB the ?or"d# n02 Witho)t p"ants
and anima"sC a "ar<e portion oB 6asi1 s1ientiBi1 resear1h ?o)"d 6e impossi6"e# 9ti"itarian :a")e is the dire1t )ti"it8 h)mans dra? Brom p"ants and anima"s# n0% 4n"8 a
Bra1tion oB the GT102H earthRs spe1ies ha:e 6een e-aminedC and mankind ma8 someda8 desperate"8 need the spe1ies that it is e-terminatin< toda8# To a11ept that the
snai" darterC hare"ip s)1kerC or 2isma" (?amp so)theastern shre? n0* 1o)"d sa:e mankind ma8 6e diBBi1)"t Bor some# 7an8C iB not mostC spe1ies are )se"ess to man in a
dire1t )ti"itarian sense# $onethe"essC the8 ma8 6e 1riti1a" in an indire1t ro"eC 6e1a)se their e-tirpations 1o)"d aBBe1t a dire1t"8 )seB)" spe1ies ne<ati:e"8# .n a 1"ose"8
inter1onne1ted e1os8stemC the "oss oB a spe1ies aBBe1ts other spe1ies dependent on it# n0+ 7oreo:erC as the n)m6er oB spe1ies de1"ineC the eBBe1t oB ea1h ne? e-tin1tion
on the remainin< spe1ies in1reases dramati1a""8# n06 *# 5io"o<i1a" 2i:ersit8# -- The main premise oB spe1ies preser:ation is that di:ersit8 is 6etter than simp"i1it8# n00
s the 1)rrent mass e-tin1tion has pro<ressedC the ?or"dRs 6io"o<i1a" di:ersit8 <enera""8 has de1reased# This trend o11)rs ?ithin e1os8stems 68 red)1in< the n)m6er oB
spe1iesC and ?ithin spe1ies 68 red)1in< the n)m6er oB indi:id)a"s# 5oth trends 1arr8 serio)s B)t)re imp"i1ations# 5io"o<i1a""8 di:erse e1os8stems are
1hara1terized 68 a "ar<e n)m6er oB spe1ia"ist spe1iesC Bi""in< narro? e1o"o<i1a" ni1hes# These e1os8stems inherent"8 are more sta6"e than "ess
di:erse s8stems# UThe more 1omp"e- the e1os8stemC the more s)11essB)""8 it 1an resist a stress# # # # G"Hike a netC in ?hi1h ea1h knot is 1onne1ted to others 68 se:era"
strandsC s)1h a Ba6ri1 1an resist 1o""apse 6etter than a simp"eC )n6ran1hed 1ir1"e oB threads -- ?hi1h iB 1)t an8?here 6reaks do?n as a ?ho"e#U n09 58 1a)sin<
?idespread e-tin1tionsC h)mans ha:e artiBi1ia""8 simp"iBied man8 e1os8stems# s 6io"o<i1 simp"i1it8 in1reasesC so does the risk oB
e1os8stem Bai")re# The spreadin< (ahara 2esert in Bri1aC and the d)st6o?" 1onditions oB the 19%0s in the 9nited (tates are re"ati:e"8 mi"d e-amp"es oB ?hat mi<ht
6e e-pe1ted iB this trend 1ontin)es# Theoreti1a""8C ea1h ne? anima" or p"ant e-tin1tionC ?ith a"" its dim"8 per1ei:ed and intert?ined aBBe1tsC 1o)"d
1a)se tota" e1os8stem 1o""apse and h)man e-tin1tion# ,a1h ne? e-tin1tion in1reases the risk oB disaster# Like a me1hani1 remo:in<C
one 68 oneC the ri:ets Brom an air1raBtRs ?in<sC man$ind ma8 6e ed<in< 1"oser to the a68ss#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
8/68
2AC NUCLEAR WAR DOESNT EXTINCTION
Counter!orce stri$es mean that twenty million would die at most in a !ull-scale nuclear war
)ueller, 0+ NLohnC Wood8 @a8es &hair oB $ationa" (e1)rit8 (t)dies and ProBessor oB Po"iti1a" (1ien1e at 4hio (tate 9ni:ersit8#
Jtomi1 46session3 $)1"ear "armism Brom @iroshima to "-VaedaK p# 8O
To 6e<in to approa1h a 1ondition that 1an 1redi6"8 F)stiB8 app"8in< s)1h e-treme 1hara1terizations as so1ieta" annihi"ationC a B)""-o)t
atta1k ?ith h)ndredsC pro6a6"8 tho)sandsC oB thermon)1"ear 6om6s ?o)"d 6e reA)ired# ,:en in s)1h e-treme 1asesC the area a1t)a""8
de:astated 68 the 6om6sR 6"ast and therma" p)"se eBBe1ts ?o)"d 6e "imited3 2C000 .-7T e-p"osions ?ith a destr)1ti:e radi)s oB + mi"es
ea1h ?o)"d dire1t"8 demo"ish "ess than + per1ent oB the territor8 oB the 9nited (tatesC Bor e-amp"e# 46:io)s"8C iB maFor pop)"ation
1enters ?ere tar<etedC this sort oB atta1k 1o)"d inB"i1t massi:e 1as)a"ties# 5a1k in 1o"d ?ar da8sC ?hen s)1h de:astatin< e:ents
sometimes seemed )n1omBorta6"8 "ike"8C a n)m6er oB st)dies ?ere 1ond)1ted to estimate the 1onseA)en1es oB massi:e thermon)1"ear
atta1ks# 4ne oB the most prominent oB these 1onsidered se:era" possi6i"ities# The most li$ely scenario --one that 1o)"d 6e perhaps 6e
1onsidered at "east to 6e<in to approa1h the rationa"-was a <counter!orce< stri$e in ?hi1h ?e"" o:er 1C000 thermon)1"ear ?eapons
?o)"d 6e tar<eted at meri1aRs 6a""isti1 missi"e si"osC strate<i1 airBie"dsC and n)1"ear s)6marine 6ases in an eBBort to destro8 the
1o)ntr8Rs strate<i1 a6i"it8 to reta"iate# (in1e the atta1k ?o)"d not dire1t"8 tar<et pop)"ation 1entersC most oB the ens)in< deaths ?o)"d
6e Brom radioa1ti:e Ba""o)tC and the st)d8 estimates that Brom 2 to 20 millionC dependin< most"8 on ?indC ?eatherC and she"terin<C
?o)"d perish d)rin< the Birst month#
'nd, counter!orce stri$es mean no nuclear winter
=utell, ,, N,)<eneC rizona 2ept# oB ,mer<en18 and 7i"itar8 BBairsC 2i:ision oB ,mer<en18 (er:i1es# 6-19-88#
http3//???#BortBreedom#or</s0+#htmO
To en)merate some other pro6"ems ?ith the n)1"ear ?inter me1hanism3 1# The 1oo"in< me1hanism as (a<an and asso1iates des1ri6e itC
1o)"d on"8 operate o:er "and masses# 41ean s)rBa1e ?ater is 1ontin)a""8 s)pp"ied ?ith heat Brom 6e"o?# ,:en iB s)n"i<ht ?ere 6"o1ked
Bor man8 monthsC the temperat)re at the o1ean s)rBa1e ?o)"d remain :irt)a""8 )n1han<ed# &onseA)ent"8C ?eather patterns ?o)"d
1ontin)eC ?ith ?arm moist)re "aden air Brom the o1eans s?eepin< o:er the "and masses and as it 1oo"sC rain 1"o)ds ?o)"d Borm and
e:en more oB the s)n 6"o1kin< smoke and d)st parti1"es ?o)"d 6e ?ashed o)t oB the atmosphere# 2# (a<an et a" indi1ated that at the
:er8 "eastC 100 mi""ion tons oB smoke parti1"es ?o)"d ha:e to 6e inFe1ted into the atmosphere iB the n)1"ear ?inter me1hanism ?ere to
6e tri<<ered# The8 a"so indi1ated that 1ities are the primar8 so)r1e oB that smoke# The8 thereBore proposed a n)1"ear ?ar s1enario in
?hi1h 1ities are the primar8 tar- <ets# (in1e the mid 1960sC the primar8 tar<ets Bor 6oth 9#(# and (o:iet n)1"ear missi"es and n)1"ear
6om6s ha:e not 6een pop)"ation 1enters or 1ities# The8 ha:e 6een the other <)8Rs n)1"ear missi"e "a)n1h sitesC n)1"ear 6om6er 6ases
and other mi"itar8 tar<ets# .B those 1an 6e e"iminatedC the 1ities ?i"" 6e he"d hosta<e# The 1)rrent "ist oB ten tar<et 1"asses as1ri6ed to
(o:iet p"anners 68 242 and !,7C does not spe1iBi1a""8 1ontain an8 pop)"ation 1enters# The "ist does oB 1o)rse in1")de tar<et
1"asses that in man8 instan1es ?i"" 6e "o1ated in or adFa1ent to metropo"itan areas# 5)tC e:en in those instan1esC the n)1"ear ?eapons
emp"o8ed ?i"" not 6e the h)<e m)"time<aton area destr)1tion 6om6s oB the "ate 19+0s and ear"8 1960s# .&57 s8stems and 7.RPs
are no? so a11)rate that a tar<et ma8 6e pin- pointed e:en ?ithin a metropo"itan areaC 68 a re"ati:e"8 sma"" ?eapon# This is not in an8
?a8 to sa8 that the eBBe1ts ?i"" not 6e 1atastro- phi1# .t is to sa8 tho)<h that the 1it8 ?ide Birestorms ne1essar8 Bor the onset oB n)1"ear
?inter as des1ri6ed 68 (a<an and asso1iatesC are "ess than predi1ta6"e# .n Ba1tC the8 are impro6a6"e#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
9/68
2AC NUCLEAR WAR DOESNT EXTINCTION
9uclear war is surviva#le apocalyptic theories have no scienti!ic #asis.
9y>uist, regular geopolitical columnist !or Financial 0ense ?nline, *+++
NL#R#C re<)"ar 1o")mnist Bor Wor"d$et2ai"8 Brom 1999 )nti" 2001C J.s $)1"ear War ()r:i:a6"e?K
http3//???#?nd#1om/ne?s/arti1"e#asp?RT.&L,W.2=19022O
s . ?rite a6o)t R)ssiaRs n)1"ear ?ar preparationsC . <et some interestin< mai" in response# (ome 1orrespondents ima<ine . am tota""8
i<norant# The8 point o)t that n)1"ear ?ar ?o)"d 1a)se Un)1"ear ?interCU and e:er8one ?o)"d die# (in1e no6od8 ?ants to dieC no6od8
?o)"d e:er start a n)1"ear ?ar Nand no6od8 ?o)"d e:er serio)s"8 prepare Bor oneO# 4ther 1orrespondents s)<<est . am i<norant oB the
?or"d-destro8in< eBBe1ts oB n)1"ear radiation# . patient"8 rep"8 to these 1orrespondents that n)1"ear ?ar ?o)"d not 6e the end oB the
?or"d# . then point to st)dies sho?in< that Un)1"ear ?interU has no s1ientiBi1 6asisC that Ba""o)t Brom a n)1"ear ?ar ?o)"d not ki"" a""
"iBe on earth# ()rprisin<"8C Be? oB m8 1orrespondents are 1on:in1ed# The8 preBer apo1a"8pti1 m8ths 1reated 68 pop s1ientistsC mo:ie
prod)1ers and Fo)rna"ists# .B 2r# &ar" (a<an on1e said Un)1"ear ?interU ?o)"d Bo""o? a n)1"ear ?arC then it m)st 6e tr)e# .B radiation
?ipes o)t mankind in a mo:ieC then thatRs ?hat ?e 1an e-pe1t in rea" "iBe# 5)t &ar" (a<an ?as ?ron< a6o)t n)1"ear ?inter# nd the
mo:ie U4n the 5ea1hU mis"ed meri1an Bi"m<oers a6o)t the eBBe1ts oB Ba""o)t# .t is timeC on1e and Bor a""C to "a8 these m8ths to rest#
$)1"ear ?ar ?o)"d not 6rin< a6o)t the end oB the ?or"dC tho)<h it ?o)"d 6e horri6"8 destr)1ti:e# The tr)th isC man8 prominent
ph8si1ists ha:e 1ondemned the n)1"ear ?inter h8pothesis# $o6e" "a)reate !reeman 28son on1e said oB n)1"ear ?inter resear1hC U.tRs an
a6so")te"8 atro1io)s pie1e oB s1ien1eC 6)t . A)ite despair oB settin< the p)6"i1 re1ord strai<ht#U ProBessor 7i1hae" 71,"ro8C a @ar:ard
ph8si1s proBessorC a"so 1riti1ized the n)1"ear ?inter h8pothesis# 71,"ro8 said that n)1"ear ?inter resear1hers Usta1ked the de1kU in
their st)d8C ?hi1h ?as tit"ed U$)1"ear Winter3 G"o6a" &onseA)en1es oB 7)"tip"e $)1"ear ,-p"osionsU N(1ien1eC 2e1em6er 198%O#
$)1"ear ?inter is the theor8 that the mass )se oB n)1"ear ?eapons ?o)"d 1reate eno)<h smoke and d)st to 6"ot o)t the s)nC 1a)sin< a
1atastrophi1 drop in <"o6a" temperat)res# 11ordin< to &ar" (a<anC in this sit)ation the earth ?o)"d Breeze# $o 1rops 1o)"d 6e <ro?n#
@)manit8 ?o)"d die oB 1o"d and star:ation# .n tr)thC nat)ra" disasters ha:e BreA)ent"8 prod)1ed smoke and d)st Bar <reater than those
e-pe1ted Brom a n)1"ear ?ar# .n 188% ;rakatoa e-p"oded ?ith a 6"ast eA)i:a"ent to 10C000 one-me<aton 6om6sC a detonation <reater
than the 1om6ined n)1"ear arsena"s oB p"anet earth# The ;rakatoa e-p"osion had ne<"i<i6"e ?eather eBBe1ts# ,:en more disastro)sC
<oin< 6a1k man8 tho)sands oB 8earsC a meteor str)1k V)e6e1 ?ith the Bor1e oB 10#+ mi""ion one-me<aton 6om6sC 1reatin< a 1rater 6%
ki"ometers in diameter# 5)t the ?or"d did not Breeze# LiBe on earth ?as not e-tin<)ished# &onsider the :ie?s oB ProBessor Geor<e
RathFens oB 7.TC a kno?n antin)1"ear a1ti:istC ?ho saidC U$)1"ear ?inter is the ?orst e-amp"e oB misrepresentation oB s1ien1e to the
p)6"i1 in m8 memor8#U "so 1onsider ProBessor R)sse"" (eitzC at @ar:ard 9ni:ersit8Rs &enter Bor .nternationa" BBairsC ?ho sa8s that
the n)1"ear ?inter h8pothesis has 6een dis1redited# T?o resear1hersC (tar"e8 Thompson and (tephen (1hneiderC de6)nked the n)1"ear
?inter h8pothesis in the s)mmer 1986 iss)e oB !orei<n BBairs# Thompson and (1hneider stated3 Uthe <"o6a" apo1a"8pti1 1on1")sions
oB the initia" n)1"ear ?inter h8pothesis 1an no? 6e re"e<ated to a :anishin<"8 "o? "e:e" oB pro6a6i"it8#U 4;C so n)1"ear ?inter isnRt
<oin< to happen# What a6o)t n)1"ear Ba""o)t? Wo)"dnRt the radiation Brom a n)1"ear ?ar 1ontaminate the ?ho"e earthC ki""in<
e:er8one? The short ans?er is3 a6so")te"8 not# $)1"ear Ba""o)t is a pro6"emC 6)t ?e sho)"d not e-a<<erate its eBBe1ts# s it happensC
there are t?o t8pes oB Ba""o)t prod)1ed 68 n)1"ear detonations# These are3 1O de"a8ed Ba""o)tQ and 2O short-term Ba""o)t# 11ordin< to
resear1her Peter P# Pr8C U2e"a8ed Ba""o)t ?i"" notC 1ontrar8 to pop)"ar 6e"ieBC <rad)a""8 ki"" 6i""ions oB peop"e e:er8?here in the
?or"d#U 4B 1o)rseC de"a8ed Ba""o)t ?o)"d in1rease the n)m6er oB peop"e d8in< oB "8mphati1 1an1erC "e)kemiaC and 1an1er oB the
th8roid# U@o?e:erCU sa8s Pr8C Uthese deaths ?o)"d pro6a6"8 6e Bar Be?er than deaths no? res)"tin< Brom ### smokin<C or Brom
a)tomo6i"e a11idents#U The rea" hazard in a n)1"ear ?ar is the short-term Ba""o)t# This is a t8pe oB Ba""o)t 1reated ?hen a n)1"ear
?eapon is detonated at <ro)nd "e:e"# This t8pe oB Ba""o)t 1o)"d ki"" mi""ions oB peop"eC dependin< on the tar<etin< strate<8 oB the
atta1kin< 1o)ntr8# 5)t short-term Ba""o)t rapid"8 s)6sides to saBe "e:e"s in 1% to 18 da8s# .t is not permanent# Peop"e ?ho "i:e o)tside
oB the aBBe1ted areas ?i"" 6e Bine# Those in aBBe1ted areas 1an s)r:i:e iB the8 ha:e a11ess to )nder<ro)nd she"ters# .n some areasC
sta8in< indoors ma8 e:en s)BBi1e# &ontrar8 to pop)"ar mis1on1eptionC there ?ere no do1)mented deaths Brom short-term or de"a8ed
Ba""o)t at either @iroshima or $a<asaki# These 6"asts ?ere "o? air6)rstsC ?hi1h prod)1ed minima" Ba""o)t eBBe1ts# Toda8Rs
thermon)1"ear ?eapons are e:en U1"eaner#U .B )sed in air6)rst modeC these ?eapons ?o)"d prod)1e Be? NiB an8O Ba""o)t 1as)a"ties# 4n
their sideC R)ssian mi"itar8 e-perts 6e"ie:e that the ne-t ?or"d ?ar ?i"" 6e a n)1"ear missi"e ?ar# The8 kno? that n)1"ear ?eapons
1annot 1a)se the end oB the ?or"d# 11ordin< to the R)ssian mi"itar8 ?riterC # (# 7i"o:ido:C UThere is proBo)nd error and harm in the
disoriented 1"aims oB 6o)r<eois ideo"o<)es that there ?i"" 6e no :i1tor in a thermon)1"ear ?or"d ?ar#U 7i"o:ido: e-p"ains that
Western o6Fe1tions to the mass )se oB n)1"ear ?eapons are 6ased on Ua s)6Fe1ti:e F)d<ment# .t e-presses mere protest a<ainst n)1"ear
?ar#U nother R)ssian theoristC &aptain !irst Rank P# ;)"ako:C 6e"ie:es that a mass n)1"ear strike ma8 not 6e eno)<h to deBeat Ua
stron< enem8C ?ith e-tensi:e territor8 ena6"in< him to )se spa1e and time Bor the or<anizations oB a1ti:e and passi:e deBense# ###U
R)ssian mi"itar8 theor8 re<ards n)1"ear ?ar as hi<h"8 destr)1ti:eC 6)t nonethe"ess ?inna6"e# R)ssian <enera"s do not e-a<<erate the
eBBe1ts oB mass destr)1tion ?eapons# "tho)<h n)1"ear ?ar ?o)"d 6e )npre1edented in its death-dea"in< potentia"C R)ssian strate<ists
6e"ie:e that a ?e""-prepared s8stem oB t)nne"s and )nder<ro)nd 6)nkers 1o)"d sa:e man8 mi""ions oB "i:es# That is ?h8 R)ssia has
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
10/68
6)i"t a 1omprehensi:e she"ter s8stem Bor its )r6an pop)"a1e# 4n the meri1an side as ?e""C there ha:e 6een st)dies ?hi1h s)<<est that
n)1"ear ?ar is s)r:i:a6"e#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
11/68
2AC AT: OONE
*. ?@one damage !rom a nuclear war won(t have any long-term e!!ects on li!e on 1arth.
)artin, pro!essor in 0cience, Technology and 0ociety at the /niversity o! 8ollongong, *+,2
N5rianC JThe G"o6a" @ea"th ,BBe1ts oB $)1"ear WarCK &)rrent BBairsC 2e1em6er 0C
http3//???#)o?#ed)#a)/arts/sts/6martin/p)6s/821a6/inde-#htm">e-p"osi:eO
&a"1)"ations made in the mid-1900s ass)min< "ar<e n)1"ear arsena"s ?ith man8 hi<h-8ie"d e-p"osions
1on1")ded that red)1tions oB ozone 1o)"d rea1h +0 per 1ent or more in the northern hemisphereC ?ith sma""er red)1tions
in the so)thern hemisphere#G%0H 5)t sin1e the n)m6er oB hi<h-8ie"d ?eapons in present n)1"ear arsena"s is no?
sma""erC m)1h "ess o-ides oB nitro<en ?o)"d 6e deposited in the stratosphere 68 n)1"ear ?ar than ass)med in ear"ier
1a"1)"ationsC and so si<niBi1ant ozone red)1tions are )n"ike"8#G%1H This 1on1")sion remains tentati:e# The a1t)a"
6eha:io)r oB stratospheri1 ozone is A)ite 1omp"i1atedC in:o":in< man8 1hemi1a" 1ompo)nds and n)mero)s 1hemi1a" rea1tionsC the 1han<in<
eBBe1ts oB temperat)reC the an<"e and intensit8 oB s)n"i<htC and the eBBe1t oB air motions# &omp)ter mode"s oB the eBBe1ts oB n)1"ear ?ar on
ozone are a6"e to take into a11o)nt on"8 a part oB this 1omp"e-it8C and ne? inBormation a6o)t 1hemi1a" rea1tion rates in parti1)"ar ha:e
"ed in the past to periodi1 re:isions in the 1a"1)"ated eBBe1ts oB added o-ides oB nitro<en# .B si<niBi1ant ozone red)1tion did o11)rC the most
important dire1t eBBe1t on h)mans ?o)"d 6e an in1rease in skin 1an1er# @o?e:erC this is se"dom "etha"C and 1o)"d 6e
a:oided 68 red)1in< e-pos)re to s)n"i<ht# Potentia""8 more serio)s ?o)"d 6e eBBe1ts on 1rops#G%2H (ome oB the important <rainsC Bor e-amp"eC are sensiti:e to ):#
Whether the net eBBe1ts on 1rop 8ie"ds ?o)"d 6e si<niBi1ant is hard to estimate# 5)t ?hate:er the red)1tion in ozoneC
ozone "e:e"s ?o)"d ret)rn prett8 m)1h to norma" aBter a Be? 8ears#G9H .t seems )n"ike"8 that in the 1onte-t oB a maFor n)1"ear ?ar the
1han<es in ): a"one ?o)"d 6e oB serio)s 1on1ern# .n parti1)"arC the threat oB h)man e-tin1tion raised 68 Lonathan (1he"" in The Fate of the Earth,G%%H 6ased most"8 on
eBBe1ts oB in1reased ): Brom ozone red)1tionC seems :er8 sma"" indeed# .t is sometimes 1"aimed that n)1"ear ?ar 1o)"d destro8 ozone to
s)1h an e-tent that h)mans and anima"s ?o)"d 6e 6"inded 68 e-1ess ):# ,:en iB "ar<e n)m6ers oB hi<h-8ie"d
?eapons ?ere e-p"odedC this possi6i"it8 seems :er8 )n"ike"8 e-1ept Bor a 1ontri6)tion to sno? 6"indness in the Bar north# (tratospheri1
ozone 1an ne:er 6e 1omp"ete"8 remo:edC 6)t at most red)1ed <reat"8# ,:en iB a +0 per 1ent or more red)1tion in ozone o11)rred - and as noted this seems impro6a6"e
?ith present n)1"ear arsena"s - prote1tion Brom ): Bor h)mans 1o)"d 6e o6tained Brom s)n<"asses or F)st ordinar8 <"assesC ?hi1h a6sor6 ):# !or anima"sC the Bo""o?in<
1onsiderations are re"e:ant# 4zone "e:e"s :ar8 1onsidera6"8 Brom p"a1e to p"a1e and Brom time to timeC 6oth seasona""8 and dai"8
Nsometimes 68 )p to +0 per 1entO# ()n"i<ht at the eA)ator t8pi1a""8 passes thro)<h on"8 ha"B as m)1h ozone as at the mid-"atit)desC 8et anima"s at the eA)ator are not
kno?n to <o 6"ind more oBten than e"se?here# !)rthermoreC most ozone red)1tions Brom a n)1"ear ?ar ?o)"d 6e in the mid and
hi<h "atit)desC ?here ozone "e:e"s are hi<her to start ?ith and ?here the Rpath "en<thR oB s)n"i<ht thro)<h ozone is in1reased d)e to its
o6"iA)e an<"e oB in1iden1e# 5)t this does not mean 1omp"a1en18 is ?arrantedC as the 1on1erns oB Lohn @ampson i"")strate#
2. 9uclear war won(t destroy the o@one layer militaries are switching to smaller weapons now and there
is no ris$ o! e.tinction.
N5rianC J,-tin1tion Po"iti1sCK (1ientists <ainst $)1"ear rms N($O $e?s"etter 9pdateC
http3//???#)o?#ed)#a)/arts/sts/6martin/p)6s/8*sana1#htm"O
The ne-t eBBe1t to ?hi1h 6e"ieBs in n)1"ear e-tin1tion ?ere atta1hed ?as ozone dep"etion# 5e<innin< in the mid-
1900sC s1ares a6o)t stratospheri1 ozone de:e"opedC 1)"minatin< in 1982 in the re"ease oB Lonathan (1he""Rs 6ook The
Fate of the Earth. G*H (1he"" painted a pi1t)re oB h)man annihi"ation Brom n)1"ear ?ar 6ased a"most entire"8 on
eBBe1ts Brom in1reased )"tra:io"et "i<ht at the earthRs s)rBa1e d)e to ozone red)1tions 1a)sed 68 n)1"ear e-p"osions#
(1he""Rs 6ook ?as <reeted ?ith ad)"ation rare"8 o6ser:ed in an8 Bie"d# Eet 68 the time the 6ook ?as p)6"ishedC the
s1ientiBi1 6asis Bor ozone-6ased n)1"ear e-tin1tion had a"most entire"8 e:aporated# The on<oin< s?it1h 68 the
mi"itar8 Bor1es oB the 9nited (tates and the (o:iet 9nion Brom m)"ti-me<atonne n)1"ear ?eapons to "ar<er n)m6ers oB
sma""er ?eapons means that the eBBe1t on ozone Brom e:en the "ar<est n)1"ear ?ar is )n"ike"8 to "ead to an8
maFor eBBe1t on h)man pop)"ation "e:e"sC and e-tin1tion Brom ozone red)1tions is :irt)a""8 o)t oB the A)estion#G%H
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
12/68
2AC AT: CLIMATE
Alo#al nuclear war would not cause drastic climate change scienti!ic studies prove.
N5rianC JThe G"o6a" @ea"th ,BBe1ts oB $)1"ear WarCK &)rrent BBairsC 2e1em6er 0C
http3//???#)o?#ed)#a)/arts/sts/6martin/p)6s/821a6/inde-#htm">e-p"osi:eO
(tratospheri1 d)st Brom a n)1"ear ?ar seems )n"ike"8 to 1a)se s)1h 1"imati1 1han<e# .n 188% the :o"1ani1 er)ption at
;rakatoa deposited some 10 to 100 tho)sand mi""ion tonnes oB d)st in the stratosphereC and the 196% 7t <)n< er)ption a6o)t
ha"B as m)1h# These inFe1tions seem to ha:e 1a)sed a minor 1oo"in< oB the s)rBa1e temperat)re oB the earthC at most
a6o)t ha"B a de<ree &e"si)sC "astin< a Be? 8earsC ?ith no "on< term 1onseA)en1es# n)1"ear ?ar in:o":in< *0007t Brom
present arsena"s ?o)"d pro6a6"8 deposit m)1h "ess d)st in the stratosphere than either the ;rakatoa or 7t
<)n< er)ptions#G%8H nother possi6i"it8 is that de1reases in ozone or in1reases in o-ides oB nitro<en "e:e"s in the stratosphereC
1a)sed 68 n)1"ear ?arC 1o)"d "ead to 1"imati1 1han<e# red)1tion in ozone "e:e"s 68 a Ba1tor oB t?o 1o)"d 1a)se a
de1rease in s)rBa1e temperat)re oB one ha"B to one de<ree &enti<radeC 6)t in1")din< o-ides oB nitro<en in the
1a"1)"ation red)1es this eBBe1t# Whether or not a 1han<e in temperat)re at the earthRs s)rBa1e 68 this amo)nt Bor a Be? 8ears
1o)"d 1a)se irre:ersi6"e 1"imati1 1han<e is hard to assess# The $ationa" 1adem8 oB (1ien1es st)d8 1on1")ded that the
eBBe1ts oB d)st and o-ides oB nitro<en inFe1tion into the stratosphere R?o)"d pro6a6"8 "ie ?ithin norma" <"o6a"
1"imati1 :aria6i"it8C 6)t the possi6i"it8 oB 1"imati1 1han<es oB a more dramati1 nat)re 1annot 6e r)"ed o)tR#G%9H (in1e the 1adem8
ass)med a n)1"ear ?ar ?ith the e-p"osion oB man8 more hi<h-8ie"d ?eapons than are present"8 dep"o8edC the dan<er oB 1"imati1
1han<e Brom d)st or o-ides oB nitro<en is a"most 1ertain"8 "ess than assessed in their report#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
1%/68
2AC AT: OCEANS
9uclear war doesn(t destroy ocean ecosystems studies prove.
International Berald Tri#une 200,
N.nternationa" @era"d Tri6)neC http3//???#n8times#1om/2008/0*/1+/?or"d/asia/1+iht-6ikini#1#11998906#htm"?
Wr=1O
&$5,RR &ora" is a<ain B"o)rishin< in the 1rater "eBt 68 the "ar<est n)1"ear ?eapon e:er detonated 68 the
9nited (tatesC +* 8ears aBter the 6"ast on 5ikini to""C marine s1ientists said T)esda8# team oB resear1h di:ers :isited
5ra:o 1raterC <ro)nd zero Bor the test oB a thermon)1"ear ?eapon in the 7arsha"" .s"ands on 7ar1h 1C 19+*C and
Bo)nd "ar<e n)m6ers oB Bish and 1ora" <ro?in<C a"tho)<h some spe1ies appeared to 6e "o1a""8 e-tin1t# U. didnRt kno? ?hat to
e-pe1tC some kind oB moons1ape perhapsC 6)t it ?as in1redi6"eCU Xoe Ri1hardsC Brom )stra"iaRs Lames &ook 9ni:ersit8C said a6o)t the
teamRs trip to the ato"" in the (o)th Pa1iBi1# UWe sa? 1omm)nities not too Bar Brom an8 1ora" reeBC ?ith p"ent8 oB BishC
1ora"s and a1tion <oin< onC some rea""8 strikin< indi:id)a" 1o"oniesCU she said# The 1+-me<aton h8dro<en 6om6
?as 1C000 times more po?erB)" than the ?eapon that destro8ed @iroshimaC LapanC in 19*+C and it :aporized is"ands
?ith temperat)res hittin< ++C000 de<rees &e"si)sC or a6o)t 99C000 de<rees !ahrenheit# The 5ikini 6"ast shook is"ands as Bar a?a8 as
200 ki"ometersC or 12+ mi"es#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
1*/68
2AC AT: NEUTRON !OM!S
9eutron #om#s have no practical use and won(t #e developed those who write a#out them are "ust
speculating.
Tenen#aum, has written a#out science, health and environment !or Technology Ceview, 1nvironmental
Bealth Derspectives, :ioscience, The Eos 'ngeles Times, and other pu#lications, 2002
N2a:idC J@)ntin< Bor $)kesCK The Wh8 !i"esC http3//?h8Bi"es#or</160ne?Wn)kes/inde-#htm"O
"" these ?eaponsC ?e m)st addC remain to 6e 6)i"t# .n other ?ordsC 8o) are readin< inBormed spe1)"ation a6o)t
?eapons not 8et in:ented . Word a6o)t ne? n)1"ear <ad<ets "eaked in the 1900sC ?hen the 9nited (tates
dep"o8ed the enhan1ed-radiation NUne)tronUO 6om6# 2erided as the )"timate 1apita"ist ?eapon Nit ?as more eBBe1ti:e
a<ainst peop"e than propert8OC the ne)tron 6om6 had "itt"e mi"itar8 )ti"it8C and ?as "ater ?ithdra?n Brom the arsena"#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
1+/68
2AC AT: SUPER MUTANTS
*. 9o ris$ o! genetic mutations - any de!ects cannot #e passed on to o!!spring.
;ayton Fournal Berald, *+,
NPetr 5e1kmannC J$)kin< Eo)r To?nCK http3//???#BortBreedom#or</r02#htmO
Geneti1 m)tations are another e-amp"e oB ?hippin< )p emotiona" Bear# !or one thin<C <eneti1 m)tations are :irt)a""8
ne<"i<i6"e 1ompared ?ith the r1a" dan<ers oB n)1"ear ?eapons# $one ha:e e:er 6een Bo)nd in Lapan despite de1ades oB an
e-treme"8 intensi:e sear1h# U$ot tr)eDU sa8 readers ?ho ha:e 6een shameB)""8 1onB)sed 68 s"anted TP do1)mentaries# EesC
radiation 1an ki""C and it 1an deBormC espe1ia""8 iB it hits Bet)ses in the ?om6# There ?ere s)1h 1ases in LapanC
6)t that has nothin< to do ?ith <eneti1 m)tations -- ?hi1h dama<e oBBsprin< 68 inheritan1e# When TP sho?s s)1h
deBormed ad)"tsC it is p"a8in< on i<noran1e a6o)t ?hat 1an 6e inherited and ?hat is an inF)r8 that 1annot 6e passed on#
2. 'ny e!!ects o! mutations will #e small and won(t #e passed onto children there is @ero ris$ o!
e.tinction.
Innovations Ceport, 2002
N$Y1hste 7e"d)n<CJ(perm and e<<s Ba"" Bo)" oB Ba""o)tCK .nno:ations ReportC http3//???#inno:ations-
report#de/htm"/6eri1hte/)m?e"tWnat)rs1h)tz/6eri1ht-0+90#htm"O
The resear1hers sti"" do not kno? ?hether this <eneti1 dama<e has 1a)sed hea"th pro6"ems Bor the areas
1hi"drenC or ?hether it ?i"" do so in the B)t)reC 6e1a)se m)tations on"8 rare"8 res)"t in disease# U.t ?o)"dnt 6e
s)rprisin<CU sa8s Goodhead# 5)t resear1hers a<ree that an8 eBBe1ts oB inherited m)tations are "ike"8 to 6e sma""
and diBBi1)"t to dete1t a<ainst the norma" in1iden1e rates oB 1an1er and disease# Peop"e dire1t"8 e-posed to radiation 68
the atomi1-6om6 detonations in Lapan d)rin< the (e1ond Wor"d War and 68 n)1"ear a11idents s)1h as &herno68"C s)BBer in1reased
rates oB 1an1er# 5)t the 1ommon per1eption that e-posed indi:id)a"s 6ear 1hi"dren ?ith deBormities is not 6a1ked
)p 68 s1ientiBi1 st)d8#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
16/68
2AC AT: SCHELL
0chell is wrong he e.aggerates his claims and doesn(t e.amine all possi#ilities !or survival.
)artin, Dh; in theoretical physics, associate pro!essor in 0cience, Technology and 0ociety at the
/niversity o! 8ollongong, *+,2
N5rianC J,-tin1tion Po"iti1sCK (1ientists <ainst $)1"ear rms N($O $e?s"etter 9pdateC
http3//???#)o?#ed)#a)/arts/sts/6martin/p)6s/8*sana1#htm"O
4pponents oB ?arC in1")din< s1ientistsC ha:e oBten e-a<<erated the eBBe1ts oB n)1"ear ?ar and emphasized ?orst
1ases# (1he"" 1ontin)a""8 6ends e:iden1e to <i:e the ?orst impression# !or e-amp"eC he imp"ies that a n)1"ear atta1k
is ine:ita6"8 Bo""o?ed 68 a Birestorm or 1onB"a<ration# @e in:aria6"8 <i:es the ma-im)m time Bor peop"e ha:in<
to remain in she"ters Brom Ba""o)t# nd he takes a pessimisti1 :ie? oB the potentia" Bor e1o"o<i1a" resi"ien1e to
radiation e-pos)re and Bor h)man reso)r1eB)"ness in a 1risis# (imi"ar"8C in se:era" oB the s1ientiBi1 st)dies oB n)1"ear
?interC . ha:e noti1ed a stron< tenden18 to Bo1)s on ?orst 1ases and to a:oid e-amination oB ?a8s to o:er1ome
the eBBe1ts# !or e-amp"eC no one seems to ha:e "ooked at possi6i"ities Bor mi<ration to 1oasta" areas a?a8 Brom the
Breezin< 1ontinenta" temperat)res or "ooked at peop"e 1han<in< their diets a?a8 Brom <rain-Bed 6eeB to dire1t
1ons)mption oB the <rainC there68 <reat"8 e-tendin< reser:es oB Bood#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
10/68
1AC PRO!A!ILIT" SUPPLEMENT 1/2
Contention X is Cis$ Calculus
Dolitical predictions !ailthey(re rarely accurate
Tetloc$, Dro! o! political science G /C :er$eley, 03
NPhi"ip ,C J,-pert Po"iti1a" L)d<mentC Prin1eton 9ni:ersit8 PressC http3//press#prin1eton#ed)/1hapters/s09+9#pdBC 5&O
These :a")e-"aden J1o)nterBa1t)a"K and Jde1ision-pro1essK F)d<ment 1a""s 1reate opport)nities Bor s)6Fe1ti:it8 to seep into histori1a"
assessments oB e:en e-ha)sti:e"8 s1r)tinized 1ases# &onsider Bo)r e-amp"es oB the potentia" Bor partisan mis1hieB3 @o? 1onBident 1an
?e no? 6eIsi-t8 8ears "ater and aBter a"" re1ords ha:e 6een de1"assiBiedIthat @arr8 Tr)man ?as ri<ht to drop atomi1 6om6s on
Lapan in )<)st 19*+? This A)estion sti"" po"arizes o6ser:ersC in partC 6e1a)se their ans?ers hin<e on <)esses a6o)t ho? A)i1k"8
Lapan ?o)"d ha:e s)rrendered iB its oBBi1ia"s had 6een in:ited to ?itness a demonstration 6"astQ in partC 6e1a)se their ans?ers hin<e on
:a")esIthe mora" ?ei<ht ?e p"a1e on meri1an :ers)s Lapanese "i:es and on ?hether ?e deem death 68 n)1"ear in1ineration or
radiation to 6e ?orse than death 68 other meansQ andC in partC 6e1a)se their ans?ers hin<e on m)rk8 Jpro1essK F)d<mentsI ?hether
Tr)man shre?d"8 s)rmised that he had passed the point oB diminishin< ret)rns Bor B)rther de"i6eration or ?hether he a1ted imp)"si:e"8
and sho)"d ha:e heard o)t more points oB :ie?#
6
@o? 1onBident 1an ?e no? 6eIBort8 8ears "aterIthat the ;enned8 administration
hand"ed the &)6an missi"e 1risis ?ith 1ons)mmate ski""C strikin< the perBe1t 6"end oB Birmness to Bor1e the ?ithdra?a" oB (o:iet
missi"es and oB reass)ran1e to Boresta"" es1a"ation into ?ar? 4)r ans?ers hin<e not on"8 on o)r risk to"eran1e 6)t a"so on o)r h)n1hes
a6o)t ?hether ;enned8 ?as F)st ")1k8 to ha:e a:oided dramati1 es1a"ation N1riti1s on the "eBt ar<)e that he p"a8ed a peri"o)s <ame oB
6rinkmanshipO or a6o)t ?hether ;enned8 6o""i-ed an opport)nit8 to e"iminate the &astro re<ime and desta6i"ize the (o:iet empire
N1riti1s on the ri<ht ar<)e that he <a:e )p more than he sho)"d ha:eO#
0
Where then does this "ea:e )s? 9p to a dis1on1ertin<"8 diBBi1)"t
to identiB8 pointC the re"ati:ists are ri<ht3 F)d<ments oB po"iti1a" F)d<ment 1an ne:er 6e rendered po"iti1a""8 )n1ontro:ersia"# 7an8
de1ades oB 1ase st)d8 e-perien1e sho)"d 68 no? ha:e dr)mmed in the "esson that one o6ser:ers simp"eton ?i"" oBten 6e anothers
man oB prin1ip"eQ one o6ser:ers <ro)pthinkC anothers ?e""-r)n meetin<# 78 parti1ipants kne? m8 meas)resIho?e:er A)antitati:e
the :eneerI ?ere Ba""i6"e# The8 did not need m8 permission to ar<)e that the B"a?s "a8 in m8 pro1ed)resC not in their ans?ers# We
1onBronted more and more F)d<ment 1a""s on ho? Bar to <o in a11ommodatin< these protests# nd ?e e-p"ored more and more
adF)stments to pro1ed)res Bor s1orin< the a11)ra18 oB e-perts Bore1astsC in1")din< value adjustments that responded to Bore1asters
protests that their mistakes ?ere the Jri<ht mistakesK <i:en the 1osts oB errin< in the other dire1tionQ controversy adjustments that
responded to Bore1asters protests that the8 ?ere rea""8 ri<ht and o)r rea"it8 1he1ks ?ron<Q difficulty adjustments that responded to
protests that some Bore1asters had 6een dea"t to)<her tasks than othersQ and e:en fuzzy-set adjustments that <a:e Bore1asters partia"
1redit ?hene:er the8 1"aimed that thin<s that did not happen either a"most happened or mi<ht 8et happen# We 1o)"d :ie? these
s1orin< adF)stments as the re:en<e oB the re"ati:ists# The "ist 1ertain"8 stret1hes o)r to"eran1e Bor )n1ertaint83 it reA)ires 1on1edin< that
the "ine 6et?een rationa"it8 and rationa"ization ?i"" often 6e 6")rr8# 5)tC a<ainC ?e sho)"d not 1on1ede too m)1h# !ai"in< to "earn
e:er8thin< is not tantamo)nt to "earnin< nothin<# .t is Bar more reasona6"e to :ie? the "ist as an o6Fe1t "esson in ho? s1ien1e ?orks3
te"" )s 8o)r 1on1erns and ?e ?i"" trans"ate them into s1orin< pro1ed)res and estimate ho? sensiti:e o)r 1on1")sions a6o)t <ood
F)d<ment are to :ario)s adF)stments# .ndeedC these sensiti:it8 ana"8ses ?i"" re:ea" the 1omposite statisti1a" portraits oB <ood F)d<ment
to 6e ro6)st a1ross an impressi:e ran<e oB s1orin< adF)stmentsC ?ith the 1onditiona" "ike"ihood oB s)1h patterns emer<in< 68 1han1e
?e"" )nder Bi:e in one h)ndred N"ike"ihood 1onditiona" on n)"" h8pothesis 6ein< tr)eO# $o n)m6er oB statisti1a" tests ?i""C ho?e:erC
1ompe" prin1ip"ed re"ati:ists to 1han<e their minds a6o)t the propriet8 oB ho"din< ad:o1ates oB 1"ashin< ?or"d:ie?s a11o)nta6"e to
1ommon standardsIa point ?e dri:e home in the sto1k-takin< 1"osin< 1hapter# 5)tC in the endC most readers ?i"" not 6e phi"osophers
Iand Be?er sti"" re"ati:ists# This 6ook addresses a host oB more pra<mati1 a)dien1es ?ho ha:e "earned to "i:e ?ith the mess8
imperBe1tions oB so1ia" s1ien1e Nand 6e <rateB)" ?hen the epistemo"o<i1a" <"ass is one-third B)"" rather than anno8ed a6o)t its 6ein<
t?o-thirds empt8O# 4)r Bindin<s ?i"" speak to ps81ho"o<ists ?ho ?onder ho? ?e"" "a6orator8 Bindin<s on 1o<niti:e st8"esC 6iasesC and
1orre1ti:es tra:e" in the rea" ?or"dC de1ision theorists ?ho 1are a6o)t the 1riteria ?e )se Bor F)d<in< F)d<mentC po"iti1a" s1ientists ?ho
?onder ?ho has ?hat it takes to J6rid<e the <apK 6et?een a1ademi1 a6stra1tions and the rea" ?or"dC and Fo)rna"istsC risk 1ons)"tantsC
and inte""i<en1e ana"8sts ?ho make their "i:in<s thinkin< in Jrea" timeK and mi<ht 6e 1)rio)s ?ho 1an J6eatK the dart-thro?in< 1himp#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
18/68
1AC PRO!A!ILIT" SUPPLEMENT
Dro#a#ility should #e evaluated #e!ore magnitude
$i1ho"as CescherC 9ni:ersit8 oB Pitts6)r<h ProBessor oB Phi"osoph8C JRisk3 Phi"osophi1a" .ntrod)1tion to the Theor8 oB Risk
,:a")ation and 7ana<ementK 19,
pro6a6i"it8 is a n)m6er 6et?een zero and one# $o? n)m6ers 6et?een zero and one 1an <et to 6e :er8 sma"" indeed3 s $ <ets
6i<<erC 1/$ ?i"" <ro? :er8C :er8 sma""# WhatC thenC is one to do a6o)t e-treme"8 sma"" pro6a6i"ities in the rational management
o! ris$s? 4n this iss)e there is a s8stemi1 disa<reement 6et?een pro6a6i"ists ?orkin< in mathemati1s or nat)ra" s1ien1e and
de1ision theorists ?ho ?ork on iss)es re"atin< to h)man aBBairs# The Bormer take the "ine that sma"" n)m6ers are sma"" n)m6ers and
m)st 6e taken into a11o)nt as s)1h# The "atter tend to take the :ie? that small pro#a#ilities represent e.tremely remote
prospects and can #e written o!!# N2e minimis non 1)rat "e-C as the o"d pre1ept has it3 there is no need to #other with tri!les#O
When somethin< is a6o)t as pro6a6"e as it is that a tho)sand Bair di1e ?hen tossed a tho)sand times ?i"" a"" 1ome )p si-esC thenC so
it is he"dC ?e 1an prett8 ?e"" Bor<et a6o)t it as ?orth8 oB 1on1ern# The <worst possi#le case !i.ation< is one o! the most
damaging modes o! unrealism in de"i6erations a6o)t risk in rea"-"iBe sit)ations# Preo11)pation a6o)t ?hat mi<ht happen UiB ?orst
1omes to ?orstU is 1o)nterprod)1ti:e ?hene:er ?e pro1eed ?itho)t re1o<nizin< thatC oBten as notC these worst possi#le outcomes
are wildly impro#a#le Hand sometimes do not deserve to #e viewed as real possi#ilities at allO# The 1r)- in risk de"i6erations is
not the iss)e oB "oss UiB ?orst 1omes to ?orstU 6)t the potentia" a11epta6i"it8 oB this prospe1t ?ithin the ?ider Brame?ork oB the
risk sit)ationC ?here ?e ma8 ?e"" 6e prepared Uto take o)r 1han1esCU 1onsiderin< the possi6"e ad:anta<es that 6e1kon a"on< this
ro)te# The ?orst threat is 1ertain"8 somethin< to 6e 6orne in mind and taken into a11o)ntC 6)t it is emphati1a""8 not a satisBa1tor8
inde- oB the o:era"" serio)sness or <ra:it8 oB a sit)ation oB hazard#
'ny action could potentially have devastating impacts, #ut we don(t evaluate them #ecause o! the low pro#a#ility
Lessi1a 0ternC !e""o? at the &o)n1i" on !orei<n Re"ations and Bormer $ationa" (e1)rit8 &o)n1i" 7em6er JThe 9"timate TerroristsK
19++ http3//???#h)p#har:ard#ed)/Beat)res/ste)"t/e-1erpt#htm"
Poisons ha:e a"?a8s 6een seen as )na11epta6"8 1r)e"# Li:8 1a""ed poisonin<s oB enemies Use1ret 1rimes#U &i1ero reBerred to poisonin< as Uan atro1it8#U 5)t ?h8 do
poisons e:oke s)1h dread? This A)estion has "on< p)zz"ed po"iti1a" s1ientists and historians# 4ne ans?er is that peop"eRs per1eptions oB risk oBten do not mat1h
rea"it83 that ?hat ?e dread most is oBten not ?hat a1t)a""8 threatens )s most# When 8o) <ot )p this mornin<C 8o) ?ere e-posed to serio)s risks at
near"8 e:er8 sta<e oB 8o)r pro<ression Brom 6ed to the oBBi1e# ,:en "8in< in 6ed e-posed 8o) to serio)s hazards3 1 in *00 meri1ans is inF)red
ea1h 8ear ?hi"e doin< nothin< 6)t "8in< in 6ed or sittin< in a 1hair--6e1a)se the head6oard 1o""apsesC the Brame <i:es ?a8C or another s)1h Bai")re
o11)rs# Eo)r risk oB s)BBerin< a "etha" a11ident in 8o)r 6atht)6 or sho?er ?as one in a mi""ion# Eo)r 6reakBast in1reased 8o)r risk oB 1an1erC heart atta1kC o6esit8C or
ma"n)tritionC dependin< on ?hat 8o) ate# "tho)<h 6oth mar<arine and 6)tter appear to 1ontri6)te to heart diseaseC a ne? theor8 s)<<ests that "o?-Bat diets make 8o)
Bat# .B 8o) 6reakBasted on <rains Ne:en or<ani1 onesOC 8o) e-posed 8o)rse"B to dan<ero)s to-ins3 p"ants prod)1e their o?n nat)ra" pesti1ides to Bi<ht oBB B)n<i and
her6i:oresC and man8 oB these are more harmB)" than s8ntheti1 pesti1ide resid)es# Eo)r 1erea" ?ith mi"k ma8 ha:e 6een 1ontaminated 68 mo"d to-insC in1")din< the
dead"8 aB"ato-in Bo)nd in pean)tsC 1ornC and mi"k# nd 8o)r e<<s ma8 ha:e 1ontained 6enzeneC another kno?n 1ar1ino<en# Eo)r 1)p oB 1oBBee in1")ded
t?ent8-si- 1ompo)nds kno?n to 6e m)ta<eni13 iB 1oBBee ?ere s8nthesized in the "a6orator8C the !2 ?o)"d pro6a6"8 6an it as a 1an1er-
1a)sin< s)6stan1e# 7ost peop"e are more ?orried a6o)t the risks oB n)1"ear po?er p"ants than the risks oB dri:in< to ?orkC and more a"armed 68 the prospe1t oB
terrorists ?ith 1hemi1a" ?eapons than 68 s?immin< in a poo"# ,-perts tend to Bo1)s on pro6a6i"ities and o)t1omesC 6)t p)6"i1 per1eption oB risk seems to
depend on other :aria6"es3 there is "itt"e 1orre"ation 6et?een o6Fe1ti:e risk and p)6"i1 dread# ,-aminin< possi6"e reasons Bor this dis1repan18 ?i"" he"p
)s )nderstand ?h8 the tho)<ht oB terrorists ?ith a11ess to n)1"earC 1hemi1a"C and 6io"o<i1a" ?eapons Bi""s )s ?ith dread# Peop"e tend to e-a<<erate the
"ike"ihood oB e:ents that are eas8 to ima<ine or re1a""# 2isasters and 1atastrophes sta8 disproportionate"8 rooted in the p)6"i1
1ons1io)snessC and e:oke disproportionate Bear# pi1t)re oB a m)shroom 1"o)d pro6a6"8 sta8s "on< in :ie?ersR 1ons1io)sness as an
ima<e oB Bear#
TurnI catering to minute ris$s #ased on higher magnitude creates policy paralysis, ma$ing their impacts inevita#le
$i1ho"as CescherC 9ni:ersit8 oB Pitts6)r<h ProBessor oB Phi"osoph8C JRisk3 Phi"osophi1a" .ntrod)1tion to the Theor8 oB Risk
,:a")ation and 7ana<ementK 19,
The stakes are hi<hC the potentia" 6eneBits enormo)s# Nnd so are the 1osts - Bor instan1e 1an1er resear1h andC in parti1)"arC the m)"ti-mi""ion do""ar <am6"e on
interBeron#O 5)t there is no t)rnin< 6a1k the 1"o1k# The pro1esses at iss)e are irre:ersi6"e# 4n"8 thro)<h the shre?d dep"o8ment oB s1ien1e and te1hno"o<8 1an ?e
reso":e the pro6"ems that s1ien1e and te1hno"o<8 themse":es ha:e 6ro)<ht )pon )s# meri1a seems to ha:e 6a1ked oBB Brom its traditiona" entreprene)ria" spirit and
6e1ome a risk-a:ersi:eC s"o? in:estin< e1onom8 ?hose Nrea"-reso)r1eO s)pport Bor te1hno"o<i1a" and s1ientiBi1 inno:ation has 6een de1"inin< Bor some time# In
o)r yearning !or the ris$-!ree society we may ?e"" create a social system that ma$es ris$-ta$ing inno:ation ne-t to
impossi#le# The 1riti1a" thin< is to ha:e a po"i18 that strikes a proper 6a"an1e 6et?een ma"B)n1tions and missed opport)nities - a 6a"an1e ?hose Upropriet8U
m)st 6e <eared to a rea"isti1 appraisa" oB the hazards and opport)nities at iss)e# 7an is a 1reat)re 1ondemned to "i:e in a t?i"i<ht zone oB risk and opport)nit8# nd
so ?e are "ed 6a1k to aron Wi"da:skiRs thesis that !light !rom ris$ is the greatest ris$ o! allC <#ecause a total avoidance o! ris$s means
that society will #ecome paraly@ed, depleting its resources in pre:enti:e a1tionC and den8in< B)t)re <enerations opport)nities and te1hno"o<ies
needed Bor impro:in< the A)a"it8 oB "iBe# 58 a"" means "et )s 1a"1)"ate o)r risks ?ith painstakin< 1areC and 68 a"" means "et )s mana<e them ?ith pr)dent
1onser:atism# 5)t in "iBe as in ?arBare there is tr)th in @# @# !rostRs ma-im that Ue:er8 mistake in ?ar is e-1)sa6"e e-1ept ina1ti:it8 and reB)sa" to take risksU
Ntho)<hC o6:io)s"8C it is needB)" to dis1riminate 6et?een a <ood risk and a 6ad oneO# The price o! a#solute security is a#solute stulti!ication.
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
19/68
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
20/68
2AC PRO!A!ILIT" EXT
*. Dredictions #ad they(re rarely accurate, #ecause we can(t $now until a!ter the !act whether e.perts were right, which
normally they aren(t they(re a#out as accurate at predicting as dart throwing mon$eys that(s Tetloc$
2. 'pocalyptic predictions are constructed #y alarmists to advance personal interests
JurasawaC sso1iate ProBessor oB (o1io"o<8C Po"iti1a" (1ien1eC and (o1ia" and Po"iti1a" Tho)<ht at Eork 9ni:ersit8 in TorontoC 200*
N!)8)ki ;arasa?aC J&a)tionar8 Ta"es3 The G"o6a" &)"t)re oB Pre:ention and The Work oB !oresi<htKC $7C
http3//???#8ork)#1a/k)rasa?a/;)rasa?aZ20rti1"es/&onste""ationsZ20rti1"e#pdBO
9p to this pointC . ha:e tried to demonstrate that transnationa" so1io-po"iti1a" re"ations are n)rt)rin< a thri:in< 1)"t)re and
inBrastr)1t)re oB pre:ention Brom 6e"o?C ?hi1h 1ha""en<es pres)mptions a6o)t the ins1r)ta6i"it8 oB the B)t)re N..O and a stan1e oB
indiBBeren1e to?ard it N...O# $onethe"essC )n"ess and )nti" it is s)6stanti:e"8 MBi""ed inC the ar<)ment is :)"nera6"e to
misappropriation sin1e Barsi<htedness does not in and oB itse"B ens)re eman1ipator8 o)t1omes# ThereBoreC this se1tion proposes to
spe1iB8 normati:e 1riteria and parti1ipator8 pro1ed)res thro)<h ?hi1h 1itizens 1an determine the Mreasona6"enessC "e<itima18C and
eBBe1ti:eness oB 1ompetin< d8stopian :isions in order to arri:e at a so1ia""8 se"B-instit)tin< B)t)re# !oremost amon< the possi6"e
distortions oB Barsi<htedness is a"armismC the man)Ba1t)rin< oB )n?arranted and )nBo)nded doomsda8 s1enarios# (tate and market
instit)tions ma8 seek to prod)1e a 1)"t)re oB Bear 68 de"i6erate"8 stret1hin< interpretations oB rea"it8 6e8ond the "imits oB the
p"a)si6"e so as to e-a<<erate the prospe1ts oB impendin< 1atastrophesC or 8et a<ainC 68 intentiona""8 promotin< 1ertain pro<noses
o:er others Bor instr)menta" p)rposes# 11ordin<"8C re<ressi:e d8stopias 1an operate as TroFan horses ad:an1in< po"iti1a" a<endas
or 1ommer1ia" interests that ?o)"d other?ise 6e s)s1epti6"e to p)6"i1 s1r)tin8 and opposition# .nstan1es oB this kind oB
manip)"ation oB the d8stopian ima<inar8 are p"entiB)"3 the in:asion oB .raA in the name oB Bi<htin< terrorism and an imminent threat
oB )se oB M?eapons oB mass destr)1tionQ the se:ere 1)rtai"in< oB meri1an 1i:i" "i6erties amidst Bears oB a 1o""apse oB Mhome"and
se1)rit8Q the neo"i6era" dismant"in< oB the ?e"Bare state as the on"8 remed8 Bor an ideo"o<i1a""8 1onstr)1ted Bis1a" 1risisQ the
1onser:ati:e e-pansion oB po"i1in< and in1ar1eration d)e to s)pposed"8 spira"in< 1rime ?a:esQ and so Borth# "armism 1onstr)1ts
and 1odes the B)t)re in parti1)"ar ?a8sC prod)1in< or reinBor1in< 1ertain 1risis narrati:esC 6e"ieB str)1t)resC and rhetori1a"
1on:entions# s m)1h as a"armist ideas 6e<et a 1)"t)re oB BearC the re:erse is no "ess tr)e#
. Dredictions out o! de#ate may #e good, #ut in de#ate they should #e held to a very low standard. The pro#a#ility o! one
small political change !rom the status >uo causing nuclear war or e.tinction is not only in!initesimal, it(s also ridiculous and
leads to total policy paralysis that(s Cescher.
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
21/68
1AC UTIL !AD SUPPLEMENT
Contention X is Framewor$
9ormality #ias causes us to underestimate the impact o! discriminatory outcomes. This "usti!ies a !eed#ac$ loop where we
accept the esta#lished order and treat disadvantaged populations as suita#le victims necessary !or our sa!ety.
L)-in 8angC ProBessor oB La? [ 9ni:ersit8 oB Pitts6)r<h (1hoo" oB La?C 200K J2is1rimination 68 2eBa)"t3 @o? Ra1ism 5e1omes Ro)tineK P< 90-90
The $orma"18 and $orma"ization oB 2is1rimination 5e1a)se 1o)nterBa1t)a" thinkin< inB")en1es o)r rea1tions to and e-p"anations oB ne<ati:e e:entsC 6iases in 1o)nterBa1t)a"
thinkin< ha:e the potentia" to distort o)r assessments oB dis1riminator8 o)t1omes at se:era" "e:e"s# !irstC the8 1an m)te o)r rea1tions to
dis1rimination <enera""8C "eadin< )s to to"erate and e:en to a11ept )neA)a" o)t1omes# 4)r a11eptan1e oB dis1rimination is not d)e so"e"8 to a <enera"
indiBBeren1e or hardness to?ard <ro)ps that are :)"nera6"e to dis1riminationC 6)t res)"ts in part Brom the spe1iBi1 ?a8s in ?hi1h o)r preBeren1e Bor the norma" or 1)stomar8 aBBe1ts ho? ?e
pro1ess and e:a")ate e:ents and 6eha:ior# That isC the norma"it8 6ias "eads )s to rea1t "ess stron<"8 to Nand perhaps to not e:en noti1eO misBort)nes
that ?e take Bor <ranted or that Bo""o? an e-pe1ted pattern# This 6ias a"so promotes the entren1hment oB those patterns 6e1a)se it "eads )s to a11ept the
esta6"ished order 6)t to ,nd Farrin<C and thereBore to resistC 1ha""en<es to those a11epted ?a8s# !)rthermoreC it makes it easier Bor )s to F)stiB8 the
esta6"ished patterns 68 :ie?in< them as rationa" and e:en Bair# (e1ondC ?hen a 1ase oB a""e<ed dis1rimination does 1ome )nder s1r)tin8C 6iases in 1o)nterBa1t)a" thinkin< 1an
distort o)r 1a)sa" e-p"anations oB the e:ents in A)estion and o)r e:a")ations oB the parties# 5e1a)se determinin< ?hether dis1rimination has o11)rred is
JB)ndamenta""8 an e-er1ise in 1a)sa" attri6)tionCU0 the re"ati:e norma"it8 or m)ta6i"it8 oB the partiesR 1ond)1t 1an inB")en1e o)r F)d<ments oB their
ro"es in prod)1in< the o)t1ome in a ?a8 that "eads )s to red)1e the perpetrators responsi6i"it8 and as1ri6e )nd)e responsi6i"it8 to the
:i1tim# 7ore 6road"8C o)r F)d<ments oB 6"ame and s8mpath8 1reate a Beed6a1k "oop that reinBor1es the normsC e-pe1tationsC and pra1ti1es that
1ontri6)ted to o)r 6iased F)d<ments and perpet)ate dis1riminator8 rea1tions and 6eha:ior# .mm)ta6"e Wron<s and ()ita6"e Pi1tims The more
easi"8 ?e 1an ima<ine the :i1tim oB a tra<i1 Bate a:oidin< itC the more 6ad"8 ?e ?i"" Bee" that 6e has s)BBeredC so that the "e:e" oB s8mpath8 ?e Bee" and the
amo)nt oB 1ompensation ?e do"e o)t ma8 t)rn on tri:ia" diBBeren1es in the 1ir1)mstan1es oB a tra<ed8# .n the 6)r<"ar8 st)d8 dis1)ssed ear"ierC Bor e-amp"eC s)6Fe1ts e-pressed <reater s8mpath8
Bor :i1tims iB their homes ?ere 6)r<"arized the ni<ht 6eBore the8 ret)rned Brom :a1ation than iB the 6)r<"ar8 o11)rred se:era" ?eeks 6eBore their ret)rn# (imi"ar"8C s)6Fe1ts in another st)d8
re1ommended si<niBi1ant"8 hi<her 1ompensator8 a?ards Bor a 1on:enien1e store 1)stomer ?ho ?as shot d)rin< a ro66er8 at a store he rare"8 patronized than Bor a 1)stomer ?ho ?as shot at his
re<)"ar store# The8 a"so a?arded si<niBi1ant"8 hi<her amo)nts to a p"ane 1rash :i1tim ?ho mana<ed to ?a"k mi"es thro)<h a remote area on"8 to die one-A)arter oB a mi"e Brom the nearest
to?n than to one ?ho tra:e"ed F)st as Bar 6)t died se:ent8-Bi:e mi"es Brom the nearest to?n#K .n none oB the st)dies did the :i1tims "osses or s)BBerin< diBBer 6ased on the 1ir1)mstan1es oB their
misBort)nes# $e:erthe"essC the Bate oB the more hi<h"8 1ompensated :i1tims seemed more poi<nant and the :i1tims themse":es more deser:in< oB s8mpath8C 6e1a)se s)6Fe1ts 1o)"d more easi"8
ima<ine positi:e o)t1omes Bor them# positi:e 1o)nterBa1t)a" a"so ma8 1ome more easi"8 to mindC as 2e"<ados e-amp"es s)<<estC ?hen it is not norma" Bor a person to s)BBer a parti1)"ar Bate#
Re1a"" the 6)rstin< oB the Jdot-1om , 6)66"eCK ?hen )nemp"o8ment Bi<)res 6e<an to reB"e1t not F)st the )s)a" "osses oB 6")e-1o""ar and "o?er-ski""ed ser:i1e Fo6s 6)t a"so s)6stantia" "osses oB
hi<h-pa8in<C ?hite-1o""ar Fo6s# $)mero)s ne?s arti1"es hi<h"i<hted and ana"8zed the trendC "a6e"in< the \ do?nt)rn a U?hite-1o""ar re1essionK and s8mpatheti1a""8 proBi"in< the ne?"8 id"e Nand
most"8 WhiteO 1o""e<e ed)1ated proBessiona"s Bor ?hom )nemp"o8ment ?as 6oth a hardship and a sho1k# "tho)<h ?hite 1o""ar proBessiona"s d)rin< that period did indeed s)BBer hi<her rates
oB )nemp"o8ment than ?ere t8pi1a" Bor that <ro)pC the8 ?ere notC as man8 ass)medC the hardest hit3 the <ro)ps that J)s)a""8 <et 1"o66eredK 68 )nemp"o8mentI6")e- 1o""ar ?orkersC "o?er-
ski""ed ?orkersC peop"e oB 1o"orI1ontin)ed to 6ear disproportionate"8 hi<her Fo6 "osses# The misBort)nes oB )nemp"o8ed proBessiona"s dre? more attention and <reater s8mpath8 in part
6e1a)seC as one e1onomist p)t itC JThe8 are not the peop"e ?ho 1ome ri<ht to mind ?hen 8o) think a6o)t the Fo6"ess#K]T^ (imi"ar"8C o)r attention and s8mpath8 Bor 1rime :i1tims :aries
a11ordin< to ho? a11)stomed ?e are to seein< themIorC to 6e more pre1iseC peop"e "ike themIs)BBer 1rime and :io"en1e# ,:en the sameC eA)a""8 appa""in< Borms oB :i1timization 1an e"i1it
diBBerent de<rees oB 1on1ern dependin< on ra1e and 1"ass# 1o)p"e oB hi<h-proBi"e 1ases Brom re1ent 8ears i"")strate this point# 7an8 readers ?i"" "ike"8 re1a"" the hi<h"8 p)6"i1ized 1989 1ase oB
the &entra" Park Fo<<erIa 1ase so Bamo)s that this reBeren1e to its :i1tim <enera""8 s)BBi1es to identiB8 it# s ;im6er"e &rensha? has notedC this 1aseC ?hi1h ?as 6e"ie:ed at the time to ha:e
in:o":ed the <an< rape and 6r)ta" 6eatin< oB a White in:estment 6anker 68 as man8 as t?e":e 5"a1k 8o)thsCK dre? massi:eC sensationa"ized media &o:era<eC pro:oked ?idespread p)6"i1
o)tra<eC and e:en prompted 2ona"d Tr)mp to take o)t Ja B)"" pa<e ad in Bo)r $e? Eork ne?spapers demandin< that $e? Eork M5rin< 5a1k the 2eath Pena"t8C 5rin< 5a1k 4)r Po"i1e#UK
Whi"e she does not s)<<est that the &entra" Park Fo<<ers ease did not merit <reat 1on1ernC &rensha? does point o)t the dramati1 disparit8 6et?een the "e:e" oB 1on1ern that 1ase e:oked and the
:irt)a" si"en1e oB the media ?ith re<ard to the Jt?ent8-ei<ht other 1ases oB Birst-de<ree rape or attempted rapeU that ?ere reported in $e? Eork that same ?eekIman8 oB ?hi1h ?ere Jas
horriBi1 as the rape in &entra" ParkCUK 6)t most oB ?hi1h in1")ded :i1tims ?ho ?ere ?omen oB 1o"or# (imi"ar"8C the <reat attention paid to a more re1ent and perhaps eA)a""8 Bamo)s 1aseIthe
L)ne 2002 a6d)1tion oB ,"iza6eth (martC a White teena<er Brom an aBB")ent 9tah Bami"8I1ontrasted sharp"8 ?ith the re"ati:e "a1k oB 1o:era<e <i:en a simi"ar 1ase that same sprin<3 the
disappearan1e oB "e-is PattersonC a se:en-8ear-o"d Bri1an meri1an <ir"C in pri" 2002# 58 one a11o)ntC the (mart stor8 re1ei:ed ten times the media 1o:era<e <i:en Patter- sons 1ase3 one
tho)sand ne?spaper arti1"es and te"e:ision reports on (mart :ers)s one h)ndred on Patterson#%* ReportersC editorsC and prod)1ers denied that the :i1tims ra1e p"a8ed an8 ro"e in the amo)nt oB
attention their 1ases re1ei:edC pointin< o)t that a n)m6er oB Ba1tors distin<)ished them3 (mart ?as a6d)1ted Brom her o?n 6edroom in the midd"e oB the ni<ht ?hi"e Patterson disappeared
d)rin< her ?a"k to s1hoo"C the po"i1e departments ma8 ha:e ?orked diBBerent"8 in sharin< inBormation ?ith the mediaC and the (mart parentsC ?ith their UperBe1tU Bami"8C ma8 ha:e 6een
per1ei:ed more s8mpatheti1a""8 than the Pattersons# side Brom these 1ir1)mstantia" diBBeren1esC ho?e:erC a n)m6er oB Fo)rna"ists and 1ommentators noted that ra1e pro6a6"8 did make a
diBBeren1eInot 6e1a)se the media 1ons1io)s"8 resist reportin< stories ?ith 5"a1k :i1timsC 6)t 6e1a)se oB their sense oB U?hat makes a 1ompe""in< nationa"] stor8#U% What makes a
1ompe""in< stor8C ho?e:erC oBten 1orre"ates ?ith ra1e and 1"ass# s one :eteran 5"a1k Fo)rna"ist p)t it 6")nt"8C U?hate:er happens in a
6"a1k nei<h6orhood doesnt rea""8 s)rprise an86od8# The p)6"i1 is 1onditioned to e-pe1t that# U%0 .n other ?ordsC the e-p"anation ma8
6e simp"8 that 1rime and :io"en1e are an a11epted part oB 5"a1k peop"es Uro)<h road in "iBe#U%8 Their s)BBerin< is norma" and
thereBore )nremarka6"e# !)rthermoreC ?e take Bor <ranted not F)st ?ho s)BBers 6)t a"so ho? their s)BBerin< p"a8s o)t# That isC ?e 6e1ome in)red to misBort)nes that a stor8 "ine ?ith
?hi1h ?e are Bami"iarC 6e1a)se the :i1tims e-perien1es are hard to ima<ine other?ise# The more m)ted rea1tions to deaths Brom enem8 :ers)s Briend"8 i"")strate this point# !ami"iarit8
a11)stoms )s to ra1ia" and other <ro)p-6ased dis1rimination as ?e""C 6e1a)se that kind oB misBort)ne oBten Bo""o?s standard s1ripts# .n
their ana"8sis oB rea1tions to the 6om6in< oB a s8na<o<)e in !ran1e that inF)red se:era" peop"eC so1ia" ps81ho"o<ists 2a"e T 7i""er and Wi""iam T)rn6)"" pointed o)t that one need not em6ra1e
a dis1riminator8 :ie?point in order to assimi"ate the e-pe1tation that 1ertain harms are norma" Bor some peop"e 6)t not Bor others3 !ran1es then Prime 7inister p)6"i1"8 deno)n1ed the atta1k
and e-pressed his s8mpath8 Bor 6oth the Fe?s ?ho ?ere inside the s8na<o<)e and the Uinno1ent passers68#U The Prime 7inisters diBBerentiation oB the :i1tims and inno1ent passers68 pro:oked
1onsidera6"GeH o)tra<e 6e1a)se man8 interpreted it as imp"8in< that he did not 1onsider the Fe?s to 6e as inno1ent as the passers68# &ertain"8 the term inno1ent has a stron< mora" 1onnotationC
6)t sho)"d ?e ass)me that the Prime 7inisters remarks reB"e1t anti-(emitism? $ot ne1essari"8# @is Bai")re to app"8 the term inno1ent to the Fe?s inside the s8na<o<)e ma8 reB"e1t the Ba1t that
his menta" representation oB a s8na<o<)e ena6"ed him to menta""8 remo:e passers68 Brom the :i1init8 more easi"8 than the attendin< Fe?s# That the passers68 ?ere not the intended :i1tims oB
the atta1k a"so makes their inF)ries "ess taken-Bor-<ranted and th)s easier to )ndo menta""8 Na"tho)<h no more or "ess deser:edO than those oB the Fe?s #### What need not ha:e 6eenC o)<ht not to
ha:e 6een#% s this in1ident s)<<estsC the more readi"8 ?e re1o<nize the patterns that dis1rimination Bo""o?sC the harder it is Bor )s to )ndo
menta""8 the ro)tine dis1rimination ?e e-pe1t and ?itnessC the more 1on<r)o)s and "ess remarka6"e ?e Bind its :i1tims] "ossesC and
the more a11epta6"e the8 6e1ome# s a res)"tC e:en e-treme a1ts oB dis1rimination s)1h as 6ias-moti:ated :io"en1e 1an p"a8 a ro"e in
norma"izin< dis1rimination to the e-tent that the8 deBine the e-pe1ted tar<ets Bor a<<ression and i"" treatment#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
22/68
GWan< 1ontin)esH
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
2%/68
1AC UTIL !AD SUPPLEMENT
GWan< 1ontin)esH
46ser:ers oB 6iasC 1rimes )nderstand immediate"8 and :is1era""8 ?h8 the :i1tim ?as sin<"ed o)t 6e1a)se the8 re1o<nize the pattern that s)1h 1rime Bo""o?s# s .ris
7arion Eo)n< has e-p"ainedC the so1ia" en:ironment s)rro)ndin< a1ts oB :io"en1eC harassmentC intimidationC and ridi1)"e oB parti1)"ar <ro)ps makes
those a1ts Upossi6"e and e:en a11epta6"e# This pattern oB a11eptan1e a"so 1hara1terizes the "ess dramati1C more m)ndane t8pes oB dis1rimination that mem6ers
oB some <ro)ps e-perien1e ro)tine"8# 2oroth8 ,# Ro6erts has pointed o)tC Bor e-amp"eC that ha6it)a" ra1ia" proBi"in< in "a? enBor1ement 1on- tri6)tes to an en:ironment
in ?hi1h 6oth the imposition oB ph8si1a" s)BBerin< on mem6ers oB 1ertain <ro)ps and the inBrin<ement oB their 1onstit)tiona" ri<hts are e-pe1ted and minimized# !irstC
dis1riminator8 tar<etin< 68 "a? enBor1ement oBBi1ers reinBor1es the per1eption that some <ro)ps are Use1ond-1"ass 1itizensU Bor ?hom po"i1e s)r:ei""an1e and e:en
arrest are UperBe1t"8 nat)ra"#U .n t)rnC this 6e"ieB promotes the :ie? that those <ro)ps are entit"ed to Be?er "i6erties and that their ri<hts are
Umere Mamenities that ma8 6e sa1riBi1ed to prote1t "a?-a 6idin< peop"e #U 11eptan1e oB this :ie? res)"ts in an en:ironment in ?hi1h a pattern oB
dis1riminator8 tar<etin< seems 6eni<nC Bor U?hen so1ia" )nderstandin<s are so )n1ontested that the8 6e1ome in:isi6"eC the so1ia" meanin<s that
arise Brom them appear nat)ra"# (imi"ar"8C 2eseriee # ;enned8 has e-p"ained that 1ons)mer dis1riminationIthe 1ommer1ia" :ersion oB ra1ia" proBi"in< in
?hi1h retai" esta6"ishments sin<"e o)t 5"a1k and 5ro?n shoppers Bor hei<htened s)r:ei""an1e and other i"" treatmentIa"so insin)ates itse"B into o)r e-pe1tations oB ho?
peop"e oB 1o"or sho)"d 6e treated3 U,:er8da8 ra1ism perpet)ates itse"BIit 6e1omes inte<rated into e:er8da8 sit)ations and 6e1omes Mpart oB the e-pe1tedC oB the
)nA)estiona6"eC and oB ?hat is seen as norma" 68 the dominant <ro)p#UU2 nd as ?e sha"" seeC a histor8 oB inBerior 1are has "ed to the :ie? that minorities ine:ita6"8
?i"" s)BBer ?orse hea"th o)t1omes 6e1a)se Jthose peop"eU <enera""8 dont do ?e""#*% .n addition to 6ein< Bami"iar and thereBore norma"C o)r s1riptsC s1hemasC
and protot8pes Bor dis1rimination in1orporate other Ba1tors that make dis1riminator8 o)t1omes seem ine:ita6"e and "ead )s to take
them Bor <ranted# The standard dis1rimination s1hema in1")des a perpetrator ?ho intentiona""8 tar<ets a mem6er oB a disBa:ored <ro)p
Bor i"" treatment and ?hose intentiona" ?ron<- doin< is tri<<ered 68 his Utaste Bor dis1riminationUIa Bor1e 6oth irrationa" and o)tside
his 1ontro"# 5oth the ass)mptions that dis1rimination is intended and that its perpetrators are dri:en to it tend to make dis1rimination seem ine")1ta6"eC ?ith a"" the
imp"i1ations that the appearan1e oB imm)ta6i"it8 1arries# s 7i""er and T)rn6)"" s)<<ested ?ith reBeren1e to the s8na<o<)e 6om6in<C ?hen a :i1tim is seen as an
intended tar<etC the :i1tims Bate is harder to )ndo menta""8# s the8 a"so ha:e e-p"ainedC :i1tims "osses are more easi"8 taken Bor <ranted ?hen the harm the8 s)BBer
?as reA)ired in order Bor the perpetrator to a1hie:e his <oa"sIUe:en ?hen GthoseH <oa"s GareH reprehensi6"e#K*M This tenden18 ?as 1onBirmed in 8et another :i1tim
1ompensation st)d8C in ?hi1h s)6Fe1ts sho?ed "ess s8mpath8 to?ard and re1ommended "ess 1ompensation Bor a :i1tim ?hose do< ?as ki""ed 68 a 6)r<"ar ?hen the
do<s 6arkin< Uthreatened the 6)r<"ars missionU than ?hen the do< ?as ki""ed ?hen no one ?as near68 to hear the 6arkin<# .t is a"so harder to ima<ine a diBBerent
o)t1ome iB an a1tors 6eha:ior is :ie?ed as o)t oB his 1ontro" than ?hen it is 1ontro""a6"e# !or e-amp"eC to the e-tent that peop"e a11ept the stereot8pe oB a rapist as
6ein< Use--star:edC insaneC or 6othCU the8 ha:e a hard time ima<inin< him 6eha:in< diBBerent"8 and reBrainin< Brom his atta1k on the :i1tim#U6 Taken as a ?ho"e--and as
)nrea"isti1 and ina11)rate as the8 ma8 sometimes 6eIo)r s1riptsC s1hemasC and protot8pes oB dis1rimination "ead )s to take Bor <ranted and th)s to a11ept in- eA)ita6"e
o)t1omes# nd 68 in1orporatin< the ass)mptions imp"i1it in these 1on1eptions oB dis1riminationC the "e<a" mode" oB intentiona" dis1rimination reinBor1es
and instit)tiona"izes this eBBe1t# We 1omeC in other ?ordsC to :ie? mem6ers oB 1ertain <ro)ps as appropriate or a11epta6"e tar<ets Bor
the kinds oB mistreatment that ?e are )sed to seein< them s)BBer# ,:en those oB )s ?ho are :)"nera6"e to 1ommon Borms oB dis1rimination ma8 adopt
this perspe1ti:e to some de<reeC as ?e sha"" see 6e"o?# Those ?ho do not see themse":es as "ike"8 tar<ets oB dis1riminationC on the other handIthat isC mem6ers oB
t8pi1a""8 dominant <ro)psIma8 e:en Bind 1omBort in these patterns# 4ne oB the "ess no6"e tenden1ies oB h)man 6ein<s is to <a)<e o)r o?n :)"nera6i"it8 to ne<ati:e
e:ents 68 1omparison to othersIand to preBer to 1ompare Udo?n- ?ardCK to "ess Bort)nate others# 2o?n?ard so1ia" 1omparison <i:es )s a Ba:ora6"eC se"B-enhan1in<
:ie? oB o)rse":esC there68 red)1in< an-iet8 and impro:in< o)r sense oB ?e""-6ein<#*0 11ordin<"8C indi:id)a"s ?ho 1an distin<)ish themse":es Brom potentia" tar<ets
are a6"e to reap ps81ho"o<i1a" 6eneBits Brom dra?in< that distin1tion# To the e-tent that ra1ia""8 dis1riminator8 patterns oB mistreatment pro:ide nontar<et indi:id)a"s
?ith more :)"nera6"eC "ess Bort)nate <ro)ps ?ith ?hi1h to 1ompare themse":esC these patterns a"so pro:ide nontar<et persons ?ith a means oB enhan1in< their positi:e
:ie?s oB themse":es and the ?or"dIto see the ?or"d as saBe and F)st and themse":es as in:)"nera6"e and ?orth8# To the e-tent that :ie?in< some <ro)ps as e-pe1tedC
e:en a11eptedC tar<ets Bor mistreatment pro:ides a nontar<et indi:id)a" ?ith a ?a8 oB diBBerentiatin< herse"B Brom that :i1timC she ma8
Bee" e:en more ins)"ated Brom or imm)ne to s)1h treatment 6e1a)se her <ro)p identit8 prote1ts her# The 1omBort that 1omes Brom
seein< others as more :)"nera6"e than o)rse":es in t)rn ser:es to reinBor1e the desi<nation oB those others as s)ita6"e :i1tims#*8
Fudge must recogni@e their complicity in rein!orcing #elie!s which "usti!y a continuation o! racism.
Wend8 5ro?n 0cott ++C proBessor oB [ T)"ane La? (1hoo" in $e? 4r"eans JTransBormati:e dese<re<ation3 "i6eratin< hearts and mindsCK %1+
L)d<es and 1o""e<e and )ni:ersit8 Ba1)"t8 mem6ersC the maForit8 oB ?hom are ?hite and ma"eC m)st 6e ?i""in< to 1ross 6orders and di:est their
hearts and minds oB the 6e"ieB in the s)periorit8 oB Western 1)"t)re# s rth)r (1h"esin<er p)t itC F)d<es m)st UBa1e the shameB)" Ba1t3 histori1a""8
meri1a has 6een a ra1ist nation#UUM L)d<es m)st see that the8 are steeped in the :er8 traditions and :a")es in1)"1ated 68 ,)ro1entri1
1)rri1)")mC and that the in1antation oB ne)tra"it8 is not s)BBi1ient to o:er1ome their inherent 6iases#U Then the8 1an ?ei<h their o?n
traditions and :a")esC ?hi1h ha:e histori1a""8 deni<rated or deno)n1ed diBBeren1eC a<ainst traditiona""8 s)6ordinated 1on1epts Ns)1h as M m)"ti1)"t)ra"ism and
Bro1entrismO in order to determine ?hether the Bai")re to in1")de these perspe1ti:es in 1)rri1)"a :io"ates the &onstit)tion# .n this same :einC 6e"" hooks ar<)es that
not on"8 m)st the 6"a1k "iBe e-perien1e 6e Ude1o"onizedCU 6)t that ?hites m)st 6e Ude1o"onizedU themse":es#216 hooks des1ri6es the
pro6"em ?hi1h reA)ires de1o"onization3 2)rin< that time oB m8 "iBe ?hen ra1ia" apartheid Bor6id possi6i"ities oB intima18 and 1"oseness ?ith ?hitesC . ?as most
a6"e to Bor<et a6o)t the pain oB ra1ism----&"ose to ?hite Bo"ksC . am Bor1ed to ?itness Birsthand their ?i""B)" i<noran1e a6o)t the impa1t oB ra1e and ra1ism# The
harsh a6so")tism oB their denia"# Their reB)sa" to a1kno?"ed<e a11o)nta6i"it8 Bor ra1ist 1onditions past and present210 (he deBines de1o"onization as the pro1ess oB
?hites U)n"earnin< ?hite s)prema18 68 di:estin< oB ?hite pri:i"e<eU and 6"a1ks di:estin< oB the U:esti<es oB interna"ized ra1ism#U211 Those :esti<es in1")de3
the 6e"ieB amon< ?hite meri1ansC ?hi1h perpet)ates the e-er1ise oB ?hite pri:i"e<eC that the8 are not responsi6"e Bor ra1ismQ their
6e"ieB that 6"a1k peop"e sho)"d 6e Beared and dreadedQ the 6e"ieB amon< 6"a1k and ?hite peop"e that ra1ism is intra1ta6"e and permanentC and that no meanin<B)"
6onds oB intima18 1an 6e Bormed 6et?een 6"a1ks and ?hites and thereBoreC ?hite s)prema18 sho)"d not 6e resistedQ and the e1onomi1 ne1essit8 oB the repression oB
6"a1k ra<e dire1ted to?ard ?hites#219 (he states that UGtHhe po"iti1a" pro1ess oB de1o"onization is# # # a ?a8 Bor )s to "earn to see Gone another
moreH 1"ear"8# .t is the ?a8 to Breedom Bor 6oth 1o"onized and 1o"onizer#U220
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
2*/68
2AC UTIL !AD EXT
1.tend 8ang, 02 utilitarianism perpetuates the e.clusion o! the marginali@ed. This rein!orces systematic #ias #ased on race,
class, and gender !or the #ene!it o! a privileged class. The normality o! discrimination produces a !eed#ac$ loop where our
reaction to su!!ering is muted and our #iased "udgments rein!orce the norms that contri#uted to discrimination in the !irst
place. These #iases distort perceptions o! cause and e!!ect and our evaluation o! the events in >uestion. ?nce we are
accustomed to the systematic harm o! disadvantaged individuals it ma$es it possi#le to ignore their su!!ering while
overestimating the impact o! events that threaten to change the social order.
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
2+/68
2AC AT: UTIL INE#ITA!LE
*. /til may #e inevita#le in the status >uo #ut that I0 ?9E7 :1C'/01 o! the normative assumptions a#out marginali@ed
people that(s the 8ang *'C evidence. The plan wor$s to #rea$ down those assumptions so we can incorporate their views
into our normal decision calculus.
2. )oral conscience precedes rational decision ma$ing decisions are #ased o!! a moral #ac$drop
:auman, ,merit)s ProB oB (o1io"o<8 at the 9ni:ersit8 oB Leeds, *++ NX8<m)ntC Postmodern EthicsC 2*6-2+0O
5)t the mora" 1risis oB the postmodern ha6itat reA)ires Birst and Boremost that po"iti1s - ?hether the po"iti1s oB the po"iti1ians or the
po"i1entri1C s1attered po"iti1s ?hi1h matters a"" the more Bor 6ein< so e")si:e and 6e8ond 1ontro" W 6e an e-tension and
instit)tiona"ization oB mora" responsi6i"it8# Gen)ine mora" iss)es oB the hi<h-te1h ?or"d are 68 and "ar<e 6e8ond the rea1h oB indi:id)a"s N?hoC at 6estC ma8 sin<"8 or se:era""8
p)r1hase the ri<ht not to ?orr8 a6o)t themC or 6)8 a temporar8 reprie:e Brom s)BBerin< the eBBe1ts oB ne<"e1tO# The eBBe1ts oB te1hno"o<8 are "on<-distan1eC and so m)st 6e the pre:enti:e and
remedia" a1tion# @ans LonasRs R"on<-ran<e ethi1sR makes senseC iB at a""C on"8 as a po"iti1a" pro<ramme - tho)<h <i:en the nat)re oB the postmodern ha6itatC there is "itt"e hope that an8 po"iti1a"
part8 1ompetin< Bor state po?er ?o)"d 6e ?i""in<C s)i1ida""8C to endorse this tr)th and a1t )pon it# &ommentin< on ,d<ar ""an PoeRs stor8 oB three Bishermen 1a)<ht in the mae"stromC oB
?hom t?o died para"8sed ?ith Bear and doin< nothin<C 6)t the third s)r:i:edC ha:in< noti1ed that ro)nd o6Fe1ts are s)1ked into the a68ss "ess A)i1k"8C and prompt"8 F)mpin< into a 6arre" -
$or6ert ,"ias sket1hed the ?a8 in ?hi1h the e-it Brom a none-it sit)ation ma8 6e p"otted# The s)r:i:orC ,"ias s)<<estsC J6e<an to think more 1oo""8Q and 68 standin< 6a1kC 68 1ontro""in< his
o?n BearC 68 seein< himse"B as it ?ere Brom a distan1eC "ike a 1hessman Bormin< a pattern ?ith others -on a 6oardC he mana<ed to t)rn his tho)<hts a?a8 Brom himse"B to the sit)ation in ?hi1h
he Bo)nd himse"B### (8m6o"i1a""8 representin< in his mind the str)1t)re and dire1tion oB the B"o? oB e:entsC he dis1o:ered a ?a8 oB es1ape# .n that sit)ationC the "e:e" oB se"B-1ontro" and the "e:e"
oB pro1ess-1ontro" ?ere ### interdependent and 1omp"emen tar8#RsK Let )s note that PoeRs 1oo" and 1"e:er Bisherman es1aped a"one# We do not kno? ho? man8 6arre"s there ?ere "eBt in the 6oat#
nd 6arre"sC aBter a""C ha:e 6een kno?n sin1e 2io<enes to 6e the )"timate indi:id)a" retreats# The A)estion is - and to this A)estion pri:ate 1)nnin< oBBers no ans?er -- to ?hat e-tent the
te1hniA)es oB indi:id)a" s)r:i:a" Nte1hniA)es 68 the ?a8C amp"8 pro:ided Bor a"" present and B)t)reC <en)ine and p)tati:e mae"stromsC 68 ea<er-too6"i<e-and-proBit mer1hants oB <oods and
1o)nse"sO 1an 6e stret1hed to-em6ra1e the-1o""e1ti:e s)r:i:a"#--The-mae"strom-oB the kind ?e are in - a"" oB )s to<etherC and most oB )s indi:id)a""8 - is so Bri<htenin< 6e1a)se oB its tenden18 to
6reak do?n the iss)e oB 1ommon s)r:i:a" into a sa1kB)" oB indi:id)a" s)r:i:a" iss)esC and then to take the iss)e so p)":erized oBB the po"iti1a" a<enda# &an the pro1ess 6e retra1ed? &an that
?hi1h has 6een 6roken 6e made ?ho"e a<ain? nd ?here to Bind an adhesi:e stron< eno)<h to keep it ?ho"e? .B the s)11essi:e 1hapters oB this 6ook s)<<est an8thin<C it is that mora" iss)es
1annot 6e Rreso":edRC nor the mora" "iBe oB h)manit8 <)aranteedC 68 the 1a"1)"atin< and "e<is"ati:e eBBorts oB reason# 7ora"it8 is not saBe in the hands oB reasonC tho)<h
this is e-a1t"8 ?hat spokesmen oB reason promise# Reason 1annot he"p the mora" se"B ?itho)t depri:in< the se"B oB ?hat makes the se"B
mora"3 that )nBo)ndedC non-rationa"C )n-ar<)a6"eC no-e-1)ses-<i:en and non1a"1)"a6"e )r<e to stret1h to?ards the otherC to 1aressC to
6e BorC to "i:e BorC happen ?hat ma8# Reason is a6o)t makin< 1orre1t de1isionsC ?hi"e mora" responsi6i"it8 pre1edes a"" thinkin< a6o)t de1isions
as it does notC and 1annot 1are a6o)t an8 "o<i1 ?hi1h ?o)"d a""o? the appro:a" oB an a1tion as 1orre1t# Th)sC mora"it8 1an 6e
\rationa"izedR on"8 at the 1ost oB se"B-denia" and se"B attrition# !rom that reason assisted se"B-denia"C the se"B emer<es mora""8 disarmedC )na6"e Nand )n?i""in<O to Ba1e
)p to the m)"tit)de oB mora" 1ha""en<es and 1a1ophon8 oB ethi1a" pres1riptions# t the Bar end oB the "on< mar1h oB reasonC mora" nihi"ism ?aits3 that mora" nihi"ism ?hi1h in its deepest essen1e
means not the denia" oB 6indin< ethi1a" 1odeC and not the 6")nders oB re"ati:isti1 theor8 - 6)t the "oss oB a6i"it8 to 6e mora"# s Bar as the do)6ts in the a6i"it8 oB reason to "e<is"ate the mora"it8
oB h)man 1oha6itation are 1on1ernedC the 6"ame 1annot 6e "aid at the doorstep oB the postmodern tenden18 to dismiss the orthodo- phi"osophi1a" pro<ramme# The most prono)n1ed
maniBestations oB pro<rammati1 or resi<ned - mora" re"ati:ism 1an 6e Bo)nd in the ?ritin<s oB thinkers ?ho reFe1t and resent postmodern :erdi1ts and :oi1e do)6ts as to the :er8 e-isten1e oB a
postmodern perspe1ti:eC "et a"one the :a"idit8 oB F)d<ements a""e<ed"8 passed Brom its :anta<e point# part Brom :a")e-si<ns added NoBten as an aBtertho)<htOC there is "itt"e to 1hoose 6et?een
ostensi6"8 Ranti-postmodernC s1ientiBi1 re1ordin<s oB the ?a8s and means oB \em6edded se":esRC and the eno)<h spa1e and eno)<h time# There is "itt"e disa<reement 6et?een them as to the
ass)mption - a)thenti1ated 68 the "on< mana<eria" eBBorts oB modern times and the rea"ities oB the so1ia" ha6itat these eBBorts mana<ed to prod)1e - that in order to a1t mora""8 the person m)st
Birst 6e diso?ned oB a)tonom8C ?hether 68 1oer1i:e or p)r1hasa6"e e-pertiseQ and as to another ass)mption N?hi1h a"so reB"e1ts the rea"ities oB the 1ontemporar8 modee oB "iBeOC that the roots oB
a1tion are "ike"8 to 6e assessed as mora"C and the 1riteria to assess the mora"it8 oB a1tsC m)st 6e e-trinsi1 to the a1tor# There is "itt"e diBBeren1e 6et?een t?o ostensi6"8 opposite standpoints in the
?a8 the8 disa""o? or ne<"e1t the possi6i"it8 that it ma8 6e pre1ise"8 the e-propriation oB mora" prero<ati:es and the )s)rpation oB mora" 1ompeten1e 68 a<en1ies e-trinsi1 to the mora" se"B
Nm)"tip"e a<en1iesC 1ontestant and 1om6ati:eC 8et eA)a""8 :o1iBero)s in their 1"aims to ethi1a" inBa""i6i"it8O ?hi1h stand 6ehind the st)66orn )nassai"a6i"it8 oB ethi1a" re"ati:ism and mora"
nihi"ism# There is "itt"e reason to tr)st the ass)ran1es oB the e-propriatin</ )s)rpin< a<en1ies that the Bate oB mora"it8 is saBe ?ith themQ there is "itt"e e:iden1e that this has 6een the 1ase th)s BarC
and "itt"e en1o)ra<ment 1an 6e deri:ed Brom the s1r)tin8 oB their present ?ork Bor the hope that this ?i"" 6e more oB the 1ase in the B)t)re# t the end oB the am6itio)s modern proFe1t oB
)ni:ersa" mora" 1ertaint8C oB "e<is"atin< the mora"it8 oB and Bor h)man se":esC oB rep"a1in< the errati1 and )nre"ia6"e mora" imp)"ses ?ith a so1ia""8 )nder?ritten ethi1a" 1ode - the 6e?i"dered
and disoriented se"B Binds itse"B a"one in the Ba1e oB mora" di"emmas ?itho)t <ood N"et a"one o6:io)sO 1hoi1esC )nreso":ed mora" 1onB"i1ts and the e-1r)1iatin< diBBi1)"t8 oB 6ein<
mora"# !ort)nate"8 Bor h)manit8 Ntho)<h not a"?a8s Bor the mora" se"BO #and despite a"" the e-pert eBBorts to the 1ontrar8C the mora"
1ons1ien1e - that )"timate prompt oB mora" imp)"se and root oB mora" responsi6i"it8 ---has#on"8 6een anaesthesized not amp)tatedC .t is
sti"" thereC dormant perhapsC oBten st)nnedC sometimes shamed into si"en1e - 6)t 1apa6"e oB 6ein< a?okenC oB that Le:inasRs Beat oB so6erin< )p
Brom ine6riated torpor# The mora" 1ons1ien1e 1ommands o6edien1e ?itho)t prooB that the 1ommand sho)"d 6e o6e8edQ 1ons1ien1e 1an neither 1on:in1e nor 1oer1e# &ons1ien1e ?ie"ds none oB
the ?eapons re1o<nized 68 the modern ?or"d as insi<nia oB a)thorit8# 58 the standards ?hi1h s)pport the modern ?or"dC 1ons1ien1e is ?eak# The proposition that 1ons1ien1e oB the mora" se"B
is h)manit8Rs on"8 ?arrant and hope ma8 strike the modern mind as prepostero)sQ iB not prespostero)sC then portento)s3 ?hat 1han1eW Bor a mora"it8 ha:in< 1ons1ien1e Na"read8 dismissed 68
the a)thorit8-1ons1io)s mind as Bi1k"eC \mere"8 s)6Fe1ti:eRC a BreakO Bor its so"e Bo)ndation? nd 8et## # ()mmin< )p the mora" "essons oB the @o"o1a)stC @annah rendt demanded
Jthat h)man 6ein<s 6e 1apa6"e oB te""in< ri<ht Brom ?ron< e:en ?hen a"" the8 ha:e to <)ide them is their o?n F)d<mentC ?hi1hC
moreo:erC happens to 6e 1omp"ete"8 at odds ?ith ?hat the8 m)st re<ard as the )nanimo)s opinion oB a"" these aro)nd them### These
Be? ?ho ?ere sti"" a6"e to te"" ri<ht Brom ?ron< ?ent rea""8 on"8 68 their o?n F)d<mentsC and the8 did so Bree"8Q there ?ere no r)"es to
6e a6ided 68### 6e1a)se no r)"es e-isted Bor the )npre1edented #U What ?e kno? Bor s)re is that 1)rin< ostensi6"e Bee6"eness oB mora" 1ons1ien1e "eBt the mora" se"BC as
a r)"eC disarmed in the Ba1e oB the \)nanimo)s opinion oB a"" these aro)nd themRC and their e"e1ted or se"B-appointed spokesmenQ ?hi"e the po?er ?hi1h that )nanimo)s opinion ?ie"ded ?as in
no ?a8 a <)arantee oB its ethi1a" :a")e# ;no?in< thisC ?e ha:e "itt"e 1hoi1e 6)t to p"a1e o)r 6et on that 1ons1ien1e ?hi1hC ho?e:er ?anC a"one 1an insti" the responsi6i"it8 Bor diso6e8in< the
1ommand to do e:i"# &ontrar8 to one oB the most )n1riti1a""8 a11epted phi"osophi1a" a-iomsC there is no 1ontradi1tion 6et?een the reFe1tion oB Nor s1epti1ism
to?ardsO the ethi1s oB so1ia""8 1on:entiona"ized and rationa""8 \Bo)ndedR normsC and the insisten1e that it does matterC and matter
mora""8C ?hat ?e do and Brom ?hat ?e desist# !ar Brom e-1")din< ea1h otherC the t?o 1an 6e a11epted or reFe1ted on"8 to<ether# .B in
do)6t - 1ons)"t 8o)r 1ons1ien1e#
. ' utilitarian calculus is only inevita#le in a#solute circumstances. 7ou may let your !riend die to save a
whole city, #ut would you let your !riend die i! there was only a chance that the city would #e attac$edL
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
26/68
2AC AT: UTIL KE" TO RIGHTS
*. /tilitarianism is inherently unethical it oppresses the poor !or the #ene!it o! a privileged class. Cross apply 8ang !rom
a#ove.
2. 'uthor indict their authors write !rom the perspective o! a predominantly white, privileged, male class that #ene!it !rom a
continuation o! the status >uo. This means that their cards are inherently una#le to account !or ethical considerations
regarding the poor.
. The >uest !or survival destroys all human values
Callahan, director o! The Bastings Institute, M
2anie" &a""ahanC &o-Bo)nder and Bormer dire1tor oB The @astin<s .nstit)teC Ph2 in phi"osoph8 Brom @ar:ard 9ni:ersit8C JThe
T8rann8 oB ()r:i:a"K 190%C p 91-9%
There seems to 6e no ima<ina6"e e:i" ?hi1h some <ro)p is not ?i""in< to inB"i1t on another Bor the sake oB s)r:i:a" C no ri<htsC
"i6erties or di<nities ?hi1h it is not read8 to s)ppress# .t is eas8C oB 1o)rseC to re1o<nize the dan<er ?hen s)r:i:a" is Ba"se"8 and
manip)"ati:e"8 in:oked# 2i1tators ne:er ta"k a6o)t their a<<ressionsC 6)t on"8 a6o)t the need to deBend the Bather"andC to sa:e it
Brom destr)1tion at the hands oB its enemies# 5)t m8 point <oes deeper than that# .t is dire1ted e:en at a "e<itimate 1on1ern Bor
s)r:i:a"C ?hen that 1on1ern is a""o?ed to rea1h an intensit8 ?hi1h ?o)"d i<noreC s)ppressC or destro8 other B)ndamenta" h)man
ri<hts and :a")es# The potentia" t8rann8 oB s)r:i:a" as a :a")e is that it is 1apa6"eC iB not treated sane"8C oB ?ipin< o)t a"" other
:a")esC ()r:i:a" 1an 6e1ome an o6session and a diseaseC pro:okin< a destr)1ti:e sin<"emindedness that ?i"" stop at nothin< # We
1ome here to the B)ndamenta" mora" di"emma# .BC 6oth 6io"o<i1a""8 and ps81ho"o<i1a""8C the need Bor s)r:i:a" is 6asi1 to manC
and iB s)r:i:a" is the pre1ondition Bor an8 and a"" h)man a1hie:ementsC and iB no other ri<hts make m)1h sense ?itho)t the
premise oB a ri<ht to "iBe- then ho? ?i"" it 6e possi6"e to honor and a1t )pon the need Bor s)r:i:a"C ?itho)t in the pro1essC
destro8in< e:er8thin< in h)man 6ein<s ?hi1h makes them ?orth8 oB s)r:i:a"? To p)t it more stron<"8, iB the pri1e oB s)r:i:a" is
h)man de<radationC then there is no mora" reason ?h8 an eBBort sho)"d 6e made to ens)re that s)r:i:a"# .t ?o)"d 6e the P8rrhi1
:i1tor8 to end a"" P8rrhi1 :i1tories Eet it ?o)"d 6e the deBeat oB a"" deBeats iBC 6e1a)se h)man 6ein<s 1o)"d not proper"8 mana<e
their need to s)r:i:eC the8 s)11eeded in not doin< so#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
20/68
2AC AT: UTIL GREATER GOOD/SOL#ES WAR
*. ?nly another "usti!ication !or inaction in the !ace o! real su#stantive su!!ering this claim assumes a privileged position
which is accustomed the normality o! su!!ering and overestimates impacts. Cross apply 8ang !rom a#ove.
2. 'nother lin$ ris$ assessment is distorted #y poverty trading on capital reserves inherently e.cludes the poor
Tim BopeC ProBessor oB &rimino"o<8 [ ;ee"e 9ni:ersit8C 2000C J&rimeC disorderC and 1omm)nit8 saBet8K P< 19%-19*
We "i:e in 6oth a risk so1iet8 N5e1k 1992O and an e-1")si:e so1iet8 NEo)n< 1999O# t the same time as ?e orient to o)rse":es aro)nd
the risks and dan<ers ?hi1h ?e see s)rro)ndin< )s in o)r e:er8da8 "i:esC so a"so do o)r so1ia" and po"iti1a" arran<ements "end
themse":es to the ma<niBi1ation oB ineA)a"ities in a11ess to those <oods ?hi1h reass)reC prote1t or e-pose o)rse":es to risk# s o)r
per1eption oB the M6ads in1reasesC so do ?e seek to <amer the M<oods ?hi1h ?o)"d keep them at 6a8C tradin< on o)r 1apita" reser:es
and 1apa1ities a1ross the :ario)s spheres oB e1onom8C 1omm)nit8 and 1)"t)re# The Monto"o<i1a" inse1)rit8 ?hi1h the 1ondition oB "ate
modernit8 inspires in )s NGiddens 1990Q Eo)n< 1999O B)ses ?ith the apprehension oB m)ndane inse1)ritiesC press)rin< )s to in:est in
the means oB risk a:oidan1e N@ope and (parks 2000O# s ?e Bee" in1reasin<"8 that the p)6"i1 sphere a"one 1an no "on<er <)arantee
s)BBi1ient"8 the p)6"i1 <oods oB e:er8da8 saBet8 Nsee Gar"and 1996OC so ?e are thro?n )pon o)r o?n indi:id)a" and 1o""e1ti:e
reso)r1es and strate<ies to a1A)ire the pri:ate <oods ?hi1h ?o)"d remed8 o)r per1ei:ed se1)rit8 deBi1it# nd o)r in1apa1it8 to prote1t
o)rse":es Brom risk "eads to Br)stration ?ith <o:ernment - sti"" seen as the primar8 < pro:ider oB saBet8 in modem so1iet8 I and ?ith
o)rse":esC as a reB"e1tion oB o)r o?n po?er"essness in the Ba1e oB the risks and harms that s)rro)nd )s# EetC a11ess to 1apita" in one
sphere - Bor instan1e# thro)<h in1ome and oB s)1h a pro1ess is at ?ork in 1ontemporar8 so1iet8 ?e mi<ht e-pe1t to see 1onseA)en1es
in o6ser:ed str)1t)re oB o)t1omes ' 6oth oB risk and oB risk a:oidan1e# ,:en iB ?e ha:e "itt"e a11ess to the de1ision makin< pro1esses
oB indi:id)a"sC and "itt"e 1han1e oB o6ser:in< their p)rs)it oB strate<ies oB risk a:oidan1e in their e:er8da8 "i:esC ?e ma8 sti"" 6e a6"e to
inBer their operation Brom the o6ser:ed str)1t)ra" patterns oB risk# .n this :einC this 1hapter essa8s an Ja1t)aria"K ana"8sis oB the
distri6)tion oB the risk to pri:ate 1itizens oB ho)seho"d propert8 1rime :i1timization in ,n<"and and Wa"esC as meas)red 68 the 5ritish
&rime ()r:e8#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
28/68
2AC AT: WAR/DEATH $ WORST IMPACT
*. Dre!er our systemic status >uo impacts to their predictive claims "usti!ying inaction to prevent disruptions to the current
social order only reconstructs the e.isting order which uses such e.cuses to in!initely oppress the poor. That(s 8ang, 02.
2. Calculation reduces li!e to @ero
;illon N++ N7i1hae"C ProBessor oB .R [ Lan1asterC Jnother L)sti1eK Po"iti1a" Theor8C Po"# 20C $o# 2# pri"C pp# 16+O
,1onomies oB e:a")ation ne1essari"8 reA)ire 1a"1)"a6i"it8#%s Th)s no :a")ation ?itho)t mens)ration and no mens)ration ?itho)t
inde-ation# 4n1e rendered 1a"1)"a6"eC ho?e:erC )nits oB a11o)nt are ne1essari"8 s)6missi6"e not on"8 to :a")ation 6)t a"soC oB
1o)rseC to de:a")ation# 2e:a")ationC "o<i1a""8C 1an e-tend to the point oB 1o)ntin< as nothin<# @en1eC no mens)ration ?itho)t
demens)ration either# There is nothin< a6stra1t a6o)t this3 the de1"ension oB e1onomies oB :a")e "eads to the zero point oB
ho"o1a)st# @o?e:er "i6eratin< and eman1ipatin< s8stems oB :a")e-ri<hts-ma8 1"aim to 6eC Bor e-amp"eC the8 r)n the risk oB
1o)ntin< o)t the in:a")a6"e# &o)nted o)tC the in:a")a6"e ma8 then "ose its p)r1hase on "iBe# @ere?ithC thenC the ne1essit8 oB
1hampionin< the in:a")a6"e itse"B# !or ?e m)st ne:er Bor<et thatC U?e are dea"in< a"?a8s ?ith ?hate:er e-1eeds meas)re#U
. Cross apply that predictions are #ad this means they can(t access their impacts.
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
29/68
1AC NO KS SUPPLEMENT
&ontention _ !rame?ork
We 6e"ie:e that the aBBirmati:e sho)"d <et the ri<ht to de1ide the Brame?ork Bor this de6ate Bor three reasons#
1O BBirmati:e !"e-i6i"it83 a""o?in< the aBBirmati:e to determine the Brame?ork Bor the de6ate is important Bor
en1o)ra<in< inno:ation ?hi"e maintainin< predi1ta6i"it8 ?ithin indi:id)a" de6ates# .B the ne<ati:e disa<rees
?ith o)r interpretation oB the Brame?ork Bor this de6ate then the8 ha:e the opport)nit8 to initiate their o?n
:ersion ?hen the8 are aBBirmati:e# @o?e:erC iB the aBBirmati:e is not pre-de"e<ated the ri<ht to 1hoose the
Brame?ork Bor the de6ate then e:er8 de6ate t)rns into a A)estion oB Brame?ork dis1o)ra<in< aBBirmati:e
inno:ation a"" to<ether#
2O &onte-t ;e83 a spee1h a6o)t impro:ements in ?a<es Bor Bri1an meri1ans takes on a diBBerent meanin<
?hen de"i:ered in Bront oB the $&P :ers)s a ;;; meetin<# (imi"ar"8C o)r 1a1 ?as de"i:ered ?ithin o)r
Brame?ork Bor this de6ate# .B the ne<ati:e 1han<es the 1onte-t oB the de6ate 68 initiatin< a diBBerent Brame?ork
then ?e sho)"d 6e <i:en the appropriate re1ipro1it8 to re-de"i:er a diBBerent 1a1 ?ithin their ne?"8 1onstr)1ted
Brame?ork#
%O !rame?ork (ta6i"it8 &reates 5etter 2e6ates3 iB the ne<ati:e ar<)es Bor a diBBerent Brame?ork then the ?ho"e
dis1)ssion de:o":es into a A)estion a6o)t ho? 6oth teams sho)"d ha:e approa1hed the de6ate ens)rin< that no
in-depth dis1)ssion o11)rs on either teams Brame?ork# .B the ne<ati:e tr)"8 6e"ie:es that their Brame?ork
?o)"d pro:ide Bor the most ed)1ation and 6est de6ates then the8 sho)"d 6e ?i""in< to a""o? the aBBirmati:e to
pi1k the Brame?ork so that at "east ha"B oB the time the8 are en<a<ed in <ood de6ates instead oB a"" oB their
de6ates 6ein< tormented 68 the Brame?ork A)estion#
ThereBoreC ?e 6e"ie:e that the A)estion that the F)d<e sho)"d reso":e in this de6ate is ?hether the aBBirmati:e
p"an is 6etter than the stat)s A)o or a 1ompetiti:e po"i18 option# This Brame?ork is 6eneBi1ia" Bor de6ate Bor Bi:e
reasons#
1O Ro"e oB the 5a""ot3 .n o)r Brame?orkC the 6a""ot mere"8 te""s the ta6 room ?hi1h team is assi<ned a ?in
and ?hi1h team is assi<ned a "ossC a"on< ?ith some speaker points# We do not attempt to ar<)e that
si<nin< the 6a""ot Bor )s means that 8o) ne1essari"8 6e"ie:e in the ar<)ments that ?e made or that 8o)
are Foinin< a mo:ement to 1reate 1han<e# We 6e"ie:e that Be?C iB an8 peop"eC e:er see the 6a""ot and that
8o) 1o)"d easi"8 :ote Bor )s and persona""8 ?ork hard to a11omp"ish an8 po"iti1a" <oa"s oB the ne<ati:e
that 8o) a<ree ?ith#
2O The ro"e oB the F)d<e3 4)r Brame?ork preser:es an important ro"e Bor the F)d<e as a 1riti1 oB 1ompetin<
po"i18 options# This is a <ood ro"e 6e1a)se iB the F)d<e is interpreted as an inte""e1t)a" s)pporter oB the
?innin< teams mo:ement or position then the8 are oBten times p"a1ed in an impossi6"e position 6e1a)se
oB e-terna" 1onstraints# !or e-amp"eC iB the F)d<e stron<"8 6e"ie:es in one teams inte""e1t)a" position 6)t
that team does not ans?er a"" oB their opponents ar<)ments then the F)d<e is Bor1ed to either inter:ene
on 6eha"B oB their Ba:ored team or to :ote a<ainst their 6e"ieBs# 4r iB 6oth teams ar<)e Bor positions that
the F)d<e disa<rees ?ith then the F)d<eC )nder other Brame?orksC ?o)"d 6e Bor1ed to inte""e1t)a""8
endorse somethin< that the8 do not 6e"ie:e in#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
%0/68
1O Theor8 oB 1ompetition3 .n o)r Brame?ork de6ate is an inte""e1t)a" <ame ?ith a ?inner and a "oser# Whi"e
there is an immense amo)nt oB ed)1ationa" :a")e that 1an empo?er peop"e to do <reat thin<sC as de6ate
is no? str)1t)red it is sti"" a 1ompetiti:e <ame# We p"a8 Bor trophies and at the end oB the da8 there is
on"8 one team that is de1"ared the to)rnament 1hampion# &ompetition B)n1tions to moti:ate and
1ha""en<e peop"e to ?ork harder at de6ate to ?in# 7ost other Brame?orks hi<h"i<ht the potentia" Bor
de6ate to 1han<e the ?or"d thro)<h a m8riad oB ?a8sC ho?e:erC it is not 1"ear ho? the trophiesC the
speaker a?ardsC and the $!L points B)n1tion in a :ie? oB de6ate as an8thin< e"se 6)t a <ame# Lets a"" 6e
e-1ited a6o)t the enormo)s ed)1ationa" 6eneBits ?e <ain Brom 1ompetin< in de6ateC 6)t "ets not di")te
o)rse":es into thinkin< that ?e are not here to tr8 to ?in a to)rnament# .B o)r <oa" ?as on"8 to 1han<e
the ?or"d then ?e ha:e pi1ked a reso)r1e intensi:e method oB pers)adin< a sma"" esoteri1 <ro)p oB
a1ademi1s that the ?or"d sho)"d 6e diBBerent#
2O (?it1h (ide 2e6ate Good3 o)r Brame?ork oB de6ate Bor1es 6oth teams to ri<oro)s"8 e-amine a po"i18
A)estion proposed 68 the reso")tion Brom se:era" perspe1ti:es o:er the 1o)rse oB a de6ate season# The
path to dema<o<)er8 is "ittered ?ith peop"e ?ho 6e"ie:e that there is no other :ie? oB the ?or"d 6)t their
o?nIde6atin< t?o sides oB a po"i18 trains )s to think in ?a8s that pre:ent this#
7)irC &omm)ni1ations ProBessor at Geor<e 7asonC 199% N(tarC J2eBense oB the ,thi1s oB &ontemporar8
2e6ateUC P@.L4(4P@E $2 R@,T4R.&C p# 288O
The ro"e oB s?it1h-side de6ate is espe1ia""8 important in the ora" deBense oB ar<)ments that Boster to"eran1e
?itho)t a11r)in< the more 1omp"i1ations oB a1tin< on s)1h 6e"ieBs# The Bor)m is thereBore )niA)e in pro:idin<
de6aters ?ith attit)des to"eran1e ?itho)t 1ommittin< them to a1ti:e mora" irresponsi6i"it8# s !re"68 notesC
de6aters are indeed e-posed to a m)"ti:a")ed ?or"dC 6oth ?ithin and 6et?een the sides oB a <i:en topi1# Eet this
e-pos)re hard"8 1ommits them to s)1h UmistakenU :a")es# .n this :ie?C the di:or1e oB the <ame Brom the Urea"
?or"dU 1an 6e seen as a means oB <ainin< perspe1ti:e ?itho)t o6"i<atin< st)dents to :a"idate their h8potheti1a"
str)1t)re thro)<h immora" a1tions#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
%1/68
1O La6orator8 oB 2e6ate is preser:ed3 one oB the 1ore 1hara1teristi1s oB de6ate that a""o?s the a1ti:it8 so
m)1h room Bor inno:ation and ed)1ation is its re"ati:e se1")sion Brom so1iet8# This a""o?s de6aters to
test ideas s)1h as ri<hts ma"th)sC and ?ipeo)t <ood# .B the Brame?ork oB de6ate is 1han<ed to 6e1ome an
a<<ressi:e"8 a1ti:ist Bor)m Bor 1ha""en<in< so1ieta" oppression then the po"iti1ization oB the a1ti:it8 ?i""
destro8 the ed)1ationa" 6eneBit <ained Brom the "a6orator8 oB ideas# The oppressi:e e"ites ?i"" ha:e an
in1enti:e to inBi"trate and destro8 the a1ti:it8#
'lan Coverstone, ).'. 0peech Communication !rom 8a$e Forest /niversity and 'ssistant ;ean at
)ontgomery :ell 'cademy, *++3
NJn .n?ard G"an1e3 Response To 7it1he""Rs 4)t?ard 1ti:ist T)rnK 2e6aters Resear1h G)ideC
http3//<ro)ps#?B)#ed)/de6ate/7is1(ites/2RGrti1"es/&o:erstone199+&hina#htmO
(e1ondC 7it1he""Rs ar<)ment )nderestimates the risks asso1iated ?ith an o)t?ard t)rn# .ndi:id)a"s trained in the
art and pra1ti1e oB de6ate areC indeedC ?e"" s)ited to the task oB enterin< the po"iti1a" ?or"d# t some )nspe1iBied
point in oneRs trainin<C the same moti:ation and Bo1)s that has 1ons)med 7it1he"" ?i"" a"so 1ons)me most oB )s#
t that pointC po"iti1a" a1tion 6e1omes a proper endea:or# @o?e:erC a"" oB the mem6ers oB the a1ademi1 de6ate
1omm)nit8 ?i"" not rea1h that point to<ether# po"iti1a" o)t?ard t)rn threatens to 1orr)pt the oasis in t?o
?a8s# .t makes o)r oasis a tar<etC and it threatens to po"iti1ize the trainin< pro1ess#
s "on< as de6ate appears to 6e Bo1)sed in?ard"8C po"iti1a" e"ites ?i"" not Bee" threatened# Eet one oB 7it1he""Rs
primar8 1on1erns is re1o<nition oB o)r oasis in the po"iti1a" ?or"d# .n this ?or"d ?e Ba1e ?e"" trained
inBormation mana<ers# (ensin< a threat Brom Ude6ateCU the8 ?i"" 6e<in to inBi"trate o)r spa1e# Read8 made
inBormation ?i"" in1rease and de6aters ?i"" eat it )p# $ot 8et a6"e to tr)"8 dis1ern the re"ati:e :a")es oB
inBormationC 8o)n< de6aters ?i"" e:ent)a""8 6e inB")en1ed dramati1a""8 68 the inBi"tration oB po"iti1a" e"ites#
Retainin< o)r present anon8mit8 in po"iti1a" "iBe oBBers a 6etter hope Bor rein:i<oratin< po"iti1a" dis1o)rse#
s perhaps the on"8 tr)"8 non-partisan spa1e in meri1an po"iti1a" so1iet8C a1ademi1 de6ate ho"ds the "ast rea"
possi6i"it8 Bor trainin< a1ti:e po"iti1a" parti1ipants# $o?here e"se are peop"e a""o?edC "et a"one en1o)ra<edC to
test a"" manner oB po"iti1a" ideas# This is the pro1ess thro)<h ?hi1h de6aters "earn ?hat the8 6e"ie:e and ?h8
the8 6e"ie:e it# .n man8 ?a8s this nat)ra" e:o")tion is made possi6"e 68 the iso"ation oB the de6ate 1omm)nit8#
n e-amp"e sho)"d he"p i"")strate this idea#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
%2/68
$o? man8 peop"e ha:e A)estioned this Brame?ork oB de6ate ?ith se:era" important o6Fe1tions# We ?o)"d "ike
to address % oB these A)estions here3
1O What a6o)t ra1ist and se-ist "an<)a<e in de6ate? We ?ant to 6e ,_TR,7,LE &L,R on this iss)e#
We do not 6e"ie:e that ra1ist or se-ist "an<)a<e has an8 p"a1e in o)r 1omm)nit8# 4thers ass)meC
ho?e:erC is that Bor some reason that a po"i18 oriented Brame?ork is rampant ?ith ra1ist or se-ist
"an<)a<e 6e1a)se no one is a""o?ed to o6Fe1t to oBBensi:e dis1o)rse# This is not the Brame?ork that ?e
are 1a""in< Bor in this de6ate# We Birm"8 6e"ie:e that ra1ist and se-ist "an<)a<e is ?ron< in de6ate# We do
not 6e"ie:e that this is a 1a"" Bor a6andonin< o)r Brame?orkC 6)t instead to endorse o)r )nderstandin< oB
the 1omm)nit8 norm a<ainst this t8pe oB "an<)a<e# 4thers ha:e ar<)ed that it is on"8 thro)<h their
Brame?orks that de6aters 1an address these iss)es# This is 1omp"ete"8 Ba"se and does not e:en make
sense# What iB a de6ater )nder these Brame?orks ?ere to ?ait ti"" the 2ar to )n"eash a B")rr8 oB oBBensi:e
"an<)a<e# 2oes the Ba1t that the ne<ati:e did not point it o)t to e:er8one in the room mean that the
:io"ation <oes )nattended? 6so")te"8 notC o)r )nderstandin< is that the 1omm)nit8 norm a<ainst this
t8pe oB 6eha:ior ?o)"d F)stiB8 the F)d<e a1tin< in ?hate:er ?a8 the8 tho)<ht ?as appropriate to dea"
?ith s)1h an e<re<io)s :io"ation# We a"so ?ant to point o)t that oBten times de6aters tri:ia"ize the
impa1t oB ra1ist or se-ist "an<)a<e 68 asso1iatin< other o6Fe1tions ?ith them# Lets maintain this stron<
1omm)nit8 norm a<ainst ra1ist and se-ist "an<)a<e 68 not a""o?in< teams to point to an8thin< the8
o6Fe1t to as a 1ompara6"e :io"ation#
2O rent dis1o)rse and representations important 1onsideration? 6so")te"8C ho?e:erC o)r ar<)ment is that
it is oBten e-treme"8 diBBi1)"t to ?ei<h 1ompetin< ar<)ments a6o)t dis1o)rse and representations# !or
instan1eC does the Ba1t that the ne<ati:e 1an point o)t one pro6"em ?ith the entire 1a1 mean that the
other 0 min)tes and +8 se1onds ?ere ?orth"ess? .B notC then does the F)d<e 1ompare the 1a1 dis1o)rse to
the 1n1? 2oes the dis1o)rse thro)<ho)t the entire de6ate 1o)nt? t the end oB the de6ate ho? does a
F)d<e de1ide ?ho had the 6est dis1o)rse thro)<ho)t the entire de6ate? @o? does an apo"o<8 B)n1tion in
a dis1o)rse de6ate? s ?e mentioned a6o:eC ?e 6e"ie:e that iB there is an e<re<io)s :io"ation that it
sho)"d 6e dea"t ?ith a11ordin<"8C ho?e:erC iB the ne<ati:e mere"8 pro:es that the aBBirmati:e mis-
prono)n1ed one oB the ?ords in their e:iden1e then sho)"d the8 ?in the de6ate? .B notC then ?hat is the
"ine? What iB a team de"i:ers a 2a1 on an entire"8 diBBerent important topi1 6)t is e-treme"8 pers)asi:eC
1an the F)d<e :ote aBBirmati:e 6e1a)se the8 "ike that dis1o)rse 6etter? .t is 6e1a)se oB these o6Fe1tions
that ?e 6e"ie:e that the F)d<e sho)"d Bo1)s on determinin< iB the p"an is 6etter than the stat)s A)o or a
1ompetiti:e po"i18 option and )se speaker points to hi<h"i<ht ?hi1h rhetori1 the8 Bind the most
pers)asi:e#
%O rent 8o) e-1")din< se:era" important Borms oB de6ate and ar<)mentation? $oC ?hi"e it has 6e1ome
trend8 to ar<)e that other Brame?orks mere"8 s)pp"ement and do not s)pp"ant po"i18 Brame?orksC o)r
interpretation oB aBBirmati:e 1hoi1e is the 6est oB 6oth ?or"ds# .B t?o teams 6oth ?ant to en<a<e in a
1riti1a" de6ate then the aBBirmati:e ?i"" 1hoose a 1riti1a" Brame?ork# .B one team ?ants to en<a<e in a
1riti1a" de6ate and the other team ?ants a po"i18 de6ate then it is on"8 a A)estion oB the ")1k oB the dra?
to see ?ho <ets to <o aBBirmati:e# 7oreo:erC a"" to)rnaments ha:e e"imination ro)nd 1onstraints so that
no teams 1an meet on the same side# ThereBoreC at an8 <i:en to)rnament ea1h team has an eA)a" 1han1e
oB <ettin< to de1ide the Brame?ork oB the de6ate# 4ther Borms oB de6ate are not <oin< a?a8 and ?e are
not tr8in< to make them <o a?a8C ?e F)st 6e"ie:e that the on"8 ?a8 to <et past oBten 6orin< Brame?ork
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
%%/68
de6ates is to Bor1e a"" sides oB the de6ate spe1tr)m to prepare Bor other teams aBBirmati:es instead oB F)st
?a"kin< into e:er8 de6ate ?ith an e-pando B)"" oB Brame?ork#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
%*/68
1NC AT: NO WARS
*. 0eriously, there will #e warsI economics, security dilemma, nationalism
)earsheimer, ;istinguished Dro!essor o! Dolitical 0cience, *+++.
NLohn 7earsheimerC J.s 7aFor War 46so"ete?K 1999C http3//???#1iaonet#or</1onB/1Br10/inde-#htm"O
se1ond reason that states <o to ?ar ?hi1hC oB 1o)rseC is dear to the heart oB rea"ists "ike meC and thats to enhan1e their se1)rit8# Take the 9nited (tates
o)t oB ,)ropeC p)t the Germans on their o?nQ 8o) <ot the Germans on one side and the R)ssians on the otherC and in 6et?een a h)<e 6)BBer zone 1a""ed eastern or 1entra"
,)rope# &a"" it ?hat 8o) ?ant# .s it impossi6"e to ima<ine the R)ssians and the Germans <ettin< into a Bi<ht o:er 1ontro" oB that :a1))m? @i<h"8
"ike"8C noC 6)t Beasi6"eC Bor s)re# .s it hard to ima<ine Lapan and &hina <ettin< into a ?ar o:er the (o)th &hina (eaC not Bor reso)r1e reasons 6)t
6e1a)se Lapanese sea-"ines oB 1omm)ni1ation r)n thro)<h there and a h)<e &hinese na:8 ma8 threaten it? . dont think its impossi6"e to ima<ine that# What a6o)t
nationa"ismC a third reason? &hinaC Bi<htin< in the 9nited (tates o:er Tai?an? Eo) think thats impossi6"e? . dont think thats impossi6"e# Thats a
s1enario that makes me :er8 ner:o)s# . 1an Bi<)re o)t a"" sorts oB ?a8sC none oB ?hi1h are hi<h"8 "ike"8C that the &hinese and the meri1ans end )p
shootin< at ea1h other# .t doesnt ne1essari"8 ha:e to 6e Wor"d War ...C 6)t it is <reat-po?er ?ar# &hinese and R)ssians Bi<htin< ea1h other o:er (i6eria? s man8 oB 8o)
kno?C there are h)<e n)m6ers oB &hinese <oin< into (i6eria# Eo) start mi-in< ethni1 pop)"ations in most areas oB the ?or"d o)tside the 9nited (tates and its )s)a""8 a pres1ription
Bor 6i< tro)6"e# <ainC not hi<h"8 "ike"8C 6)t possi6"e# . 1o)"d <o on and onC positin< a "ot oB s1enarios ?here <reat po?ers ha:e <ood reasons to <o to ?ar a<ainst other <reat
po?ers# (e1ond reason3 There is no A)estion that in the t?entieth 1ent)r8C 1ertain"8 ?ith n)1"ear ?eapons 6)t e:en 6eBore n)1"ear ?eaponsC
the 1osts oB <oin< to ?ar are :er8 hi<h# 5)t that doesnt mean that ?ar is r)"ed o)t# The presen1e oB n)1"ear ?eapons a"one does not make ?ar
o6so"es1ent# . ?i"" remind 8o) that Brom 19*+ to 1990C ?e "i:ed in a ?or"d ?here there ?ere tho)sands oB n)1"ear ?eapons on 6oth sidesC and there ?as no6od8 r)nnin<
aro)nd sa8in<C J War is o6so"es1ent#K (o 8o) 1ant make the ar<)ment that the mere presen1e oB n)1"ear ?eapons 1reates pea1e# .ndia and
Pakistan are 6oth <oin< do?n the n)1"ear road# Eo) dont hear man8 peop"e r)nnin< aro)nd sa8in<C J Thats <oin< to prod)1e pea1e#K ndC B)rthermoreC iB 8o)
6e"ie:e n)1"ear ?eapons ?ere a <reat 1a)se oB pea1eC 8o) o)<ht to 6e in Ba:or oB n)1"ear pro"iBeration# What ?e need is e:er86od8 to ha:e a n)1"ear ?eapon in
their 6a1k po1ket# Eo) dont hear man8 peop"e sa8in< thats <oin< to prod)1e pea1eC do 8o)?
2. 1ven )andel#aum thin$s you should de!ault to war
)andel#aum, Dro!essor o! 'merican Foreign Dolicy at Fohns Bop$ins /niversity *+++
7i1hae"C &hristian # @erter ProBessor oB meri1an !orei<n Po"i18C The Pa)" @# $itze (1hoo" oB d:an1ed .nternationa" (t)diesC
Lohns @opkins 9ni:ersit8Q 2ire1torC ProFe1t on ,ast-West Re"ationsC &o)n1i" on !orei<n Re"ations J.s 7aFor War 46so"ete?K
n introd)1tor8 note3 The position .m proposin< in this dis1)ssion o11)pies the hi<h <ro)nd mora""8# Bter a""C ?e a"" ?ish to 6e"ie:e that maFor
?ar is o6so"ete# 5)t it does not o11)p8C . m)st in a"" honest8 sa8C the hi<h <ro)nd inte""e1t)a""8# @istor8 and "o<i1 ?ei<h on the other side# The
6)rden oB prooB orC . sho)"d sa8C the 6)rden oB ar<)mentC Bor this is a proposition that 1annot 6e pro:enC is on me# nd man8 oB 8o) here ?i""
re1o<nize this ar<)ment as the des1endant oB a Bami"iar oneC one t?o 1ent)ries o"d that ori<inates ?ith the phi"osopher .mman)e" ;antC ?hi1h ?as proposed in dramati1
Borm 68 the meri1an President Woodro? Wi"sonC ?hi1h is identiBied ?ith the "i6era" n<"o-meri1an :ie? oB the ?or"d#
. 8ar is not impossi#le it is "ust out o! style at the )oment
)andel#aum, Dro!essor o! 'merican Foreign Dolicy at Fohns Bop$ins /niversity *+++
7i1hae"C &hristian # @erter ProBessor oB meri1an !orei<n Po"i18C The Pa)" @# $itze (1hoo" oB d:an1ed .nternationa" (t)diesC
Lohns @opkins 9ni:ersit8Q 2ire1torC ProFe1t on ,ast-West Re"ationsC &o)n1i" on !orei<n Re"ations J.s 7aFor War 46so"ete?K
There ha:e 6een Bo)r s)1h ?ars in the modern period3 the ?ars oB the !ren1h Re:o")tionC Wor"d War .C Wor"d War ..C and the &o"d
War# !e? tho)<h the8 ha:e 6eenC their 1onseA)en1es ha:e 6een mon)menta"# The8 areC 68 BarC the most inB")entia" e:ents in modern
histor8# 7odern histor8 ?hi1h 1anC in Ba1tC 6e seen as a series oB aBtersho1ks to these Bo)r earthA)akes#(o iB . am ri<htC then ?hat has 6een the motor oB po"iti1a"
histor8 Bor the "ast t?o 1ent)ries that has 6een t)rned oBB? This ?arC . ar<)eC this kind oB ?arC is o6so"eteQ "ess than impossi6"eC 6)t more than )n"ike"8#
What do . mean 68 o6so"ete? .B . ma8 A)ote Brom the arti1"e on ?hi1h this presentation is 6asedC a 1op8 oB ?hi1h 8o) re1ei:ed ?hen 1omin< inC J 7aFor ?ar
is o6so"ete in a ?a8 that st8"es oB dress are o6so"ete# .t is somethin< that is o)t oB Bashion andC ?hi"e it 1o)"d 6e re:i:edC there is no
present demand Bor it# 7aFor ?ar is o6so"ete in the ?a8 that s"a:er8C d)e"in<C or Boot-6indin< are o6so"ete# .t is a so1ia" pra1ti1e that ?as on1e 1onsidered norma"C
)seB)"C e:en desira6"eC 6)t that no? seems odio)s# .t is o6so"ete in the ?a8 that the 1entra" p"annin< oB e1onomi1 a1ti:it8 is o6so"ete# .t is a pra1ti1e on1e re<arded as a
p"a)si6"eC indeed a s)periorC ?a8 oB a1hie:in< a so1ia""8 desira6"e <oa"C 6)t that 1han<in< 1onditions ha:e made ineBBe1ti:e at 6estC 1o)nterprod)1ti:e at ?orst#K
2. They misunderstand the nature o! rationality the decision to go to war is rational, #ut not #ased on per!ect in!ormation
)earsheimer, ;istinguished Dro!essor o! Dolitical 0cience, *+++.
NLohn 7earsheimerC J.s 7aFor War 46so"ete?K 1999C http3//???#1iaonet#or</1onB/1Br10/inde-#htm"O
The ?ho"e s)6Fe1t oB rationa"it8 is a Bas1inatin< s)6Fe1t# . ?ant to emphasize here that ?hen . sa8 states 6eha:e rationa""8C that doesnt mean that the8 1ant
then <o o)t and make mo:es that prod)1e 1atastrophes# The Ba1t oB the matter is that states 6eha:in< rationa""8 oBtentimes mis1a"1)"ate and end )p
shootin< themse":es in the Boot# 4ne :er8 important aspe1t oB internationa" po"iti1s is the Ba1t that ?hen states make de1isionsC not on"8 are the8
makin< those de1isions 6ased on imperBe1t inBormationC 6)t in man8 1ases the8 are dea"in< ?ith other states that are <oin< to 1onsidera6"e "en<ths to Boo" themC to
1onB)se themC to pro:ide them ?ith inBormation that is in1orre1t misinBormation# 5e1a)se 8o)re ?orkin< ?ith imperBe1t inBormation and 6e1a)se 8o)re
oBtentimes 6ein< 1onB)sed 68 the ad:ersar8C 8o) oBten times <ooB in a 6i< ?a8# . ?o)"d make the ar<)ment F)st to hi<h"i<ht that ?hen @it"er de1ided to in:ade the (o:iet
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
%+/68
9nion in L)ne 19*1C a"tho)<h it Bort)nate"8 ended )p ?ith him shootin< himse"B in a 6)nker in 5er"in in pri" 19*+C ?hen he ?ent into the (o:iet 9nionC in m8 opinionC it ?as the
res)"t oB a re"ati:e"8 rationa" de1ision-makin< pro1ess# The8 F)st mis1a"1)"atedQ the8 F)st <)essed ?ron<#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
%6/68
AT: DETERRENCE SOL#ES
*. ?rgani@ations lac$ !ull deterrence capa#ilitiesEac$ o! civilian control means states are more li$ely to stri$e preemptively
or a#andon nuclear discipline
Clar$, director o! the national security studies program at Cali!ornia 0tate /niversity, *++M N7ark T#C J2eterren1e in the (e1ond $)1"ear
<e-6ook re:ie?s3 $eorea"ism :ers)s 4r<anizationa" Theor8CK http3//???#Bindarti1"es#1om/p/arti1"es/miWm0%6+/isWn1W:*1/aiW192%8111O
(a<anRs 1ritiA)e is a hea"th8 antidote to Wa"tzRs optimism# .n his :ie?C there are t?o prin1ipa" ar<)ments that s)<<est pessimism a6o)t
an8 B)t)re ?ith a <reater n)m6er oB n)1"ear-armed ad:ersaries# !rom his st)d8 oB mi"itariesC (a<an Binds that their or<anizationa"
6eha:ior in1"ines them to?ards deterren1e Bai")re# .t is not that mi"itaries ?ant ?ar 6)t thatC oB a"" <ro)ps in a so1iet8C the8 are the
most "ike"8 to 6e"ie:e ?ar is pro6a6"e and are most in1"ined to adopt pre:enti:e or preempti:e strate<ies# 7i"itar8 oBBi1ers are more
skepti1a" oB nonmi"itar8 so")tions to 1onB"i1ts than are their 1i:i"ian 1o)nterpartsC a11ordin< to (a<an# .t a"so makes senseC in 1"assi1a"
mi"itar8 termsC to adopt pre:enti:e or preempti:e strate<iesC sin1e no mi"itar8 preBers to Bi<ht on its ad:ersar8Rs terms# Takin< the
oBBensi:e a""e:iates some oB these pro6"ems# (e1ond"8C (a<an ar<)es that ne?"8 armed n)1"ear states ?i"" "a1k the positi:e
me1hanisms oB 1i:i"ian 1ontro"# @ereC (a<anRs 1ritiA)e is :er8 stron<# 58 e-aminin< the histor8 oB the 9#(# n)1"ear saBet8 re1ord he is
a6"e to do1)ment man8 near a11idents and 6)rea)1rati1 snaB)s that 1o)"d ha:e "ed to 1atastrophi1 a11identsC and in this ?a8 he points
o)t the ?eakness in Wa"tzRs ar<)ments# (a<an 1omments3Wa"tz asked ?h8 sho)"d ?e e-pe1t ne? n)1"ear states to e-perien1e <reater
diBBi1)"ties than did the o"d ones? The e:iden1e oB the n)m6er oB near-a11idents ?ith 9#(# n)1"ear ?eapons d)rin< the &o"d War
s)<<ests that there ?o)"d 6e reason eno)<h to ?orr8 a6o)t n)1"ear a11idents in ne? n)1"ear states e:en iB their saBet8 diBBi1)"ties ?ere
Uon"8U as <reat as those e-perien1ed 68 o"d n)1"ear po?ers Np# 80O#@e adds si- reasons ?h8 ne? n)1"ear po?ers are )n"ike"8 to
1ompi"e the saBet8 re1ord oB the 9nited (tates# 5)t iB the pro6"em is a1)te Bor ne?"8 emer<ent n)1"ear po?ers that de:e"op their
pro<rams indi<eno)s"8C it ?i"" 6e do)6"8 so Bor those that inherit or 6)8 their pro<rams# The8 ?i"" "a1k e:en the dis1ip"ine that a ne?
n)1"ear nation ?i"" a11r)e 68 in:estin< enormo)s amo)nts oB timeC ta"entC and treas)re into de:e"opin< its n)1"ear pro<ram#
2. ;eterrence theories rely on !alse assumptions o! state rationality?rgani@ations are constrained #y con!licting interests
and calculation uncertainties
Clar$, director o! the national security studies program at Cali!ornia 0tate /niversity, *++M N7ark T#C J2eterren1e in the (e1ond $)1"ear
<e-6ook re:ie?s3 $eorea"ism :ers)s 4r<anizationa" Theor8CK http3//???#Bindarti1"es#1om/p/arti1"es/miWm0%6+/isWn1W:*1/aiW192%8111O
Perhaps e:en more important is (a<anRs 1ritiA)e oB Wa"tzRs ass)mptions a6o)t rationa" deterren1e "o<i1# 58 )sin< or<anizationa"
theor8C (a<an demonstrates pro6"ems ?ith a"" three oB the ass)mptions ne1essar8 Bor rationa" deterren1e theor8 to ?ork3 There m)st
not 6e a pre:enti:e ?ar d)rin< the transition period ?hen 6oth states do not ha:e n)1"ear ?eapons# 5oth states m)st de:e"op an
ass)red destr)1tion potentia" Nho?e:er deBinedO and a se1)re reta"iator8 1apa6i"it8# $)1"ear arsena"s m)st not 6e prone to a11identa" or
)na)thorized )se Np# +1O# .n ea1h 1aseC the neorea"ist ass)mption is sho?n to 6e in error#P)re rationa"it8 is not possi6"eC ar<)es (a<anC
Bor at "east a 1o)p"e oB reasons3 U!irstC "ar<e or<anizations B)n1tion ?ithin a se:ere"8 R6o)ndedCR or "imitedC Borm oB rationa"it83 the8
ha:e inherent "imits on 1a"1)"ation and 1oordination and )se simp"iB8in< me1hanisms to )nderstand and respond to )n1ertaint8 in the
o)tside ?or"d#U 5e1a)se oB thatC or<anizations de:e"op r)"es and pro1ed)res to assist in makin< de1isions# Rather than sear1h Bor the
most Urationa"U de1isionC thenC or<anizations more oBten take the Birst option that is minima""8 satisB8in<# U(e1ondC 1omp"e-
or<anizations 1ommon"8 ha:e m)"tip"eC 1onB"i1tin< <oa"sC and the pro1ess 68 ?hi1h o6Fe1ti:es are 1hosen and p)rs)ed is intense"8
po"iti1a"U Npp# +2-+%O# s a res)"tC rather than 6ein< 1omp"ete"8 s)6ordinated to hi<her a)thoritiesC man8 or<anizations 1ompete Bor
preeminen1e in the po"i18 pro1essC oBten deB8in< a)thorit8 Bor "on< periods oB time#
. ;eterrence theories o! rationality !ail9uclear states don(t operate on a generali@ed model o! cost-#ene!it analysis
Clar$, director o! the national security studies program at Cali!ornia 0tate /niversity, *++M
N7ark T#C J2eterren1e in the (e1ond $)1"ear <e-6ook re:ie?s3 $eorea"ism :ers)s 4r<anizationa" Theor8CK
http3//???#Bindarti1"es#1om/p/arti1"es/miWm0%6+/isWn1W:*1/aiW192%8111O
There is a "ar<er pro6"em ?ith the mode" oB the rationa" de1ision maker that (a<an does not address# The rationa" mode" is 6orro?ed
Brom ma1roe1onomi1s# .n itC a Bi1tiona" Urationa" manU is depi1ted as e:a")atin< the 1osts and 6eneBits oB ea1h 1hoi1eC then 1hoosin<
the 6est possi6"e option# 5)t the e1onomi1 mode" does not posit that 6ad e1onomi1 de1isions are ne:er made# RatherC the mode" sa8s
that ma1roe1onomi1 6eha:ior - the a<<re<ate oB 1hoi1es - "ooks as iB it ?ere 6ased on rationa"C 1ost-6eneBit e:a")ations# .n s)mC the
mode" is )seB)" Bor )nderstandin< the 6eha:ior oB the market as a ?ho"e# 5)t it is neither a11)rate nor )seB)" to 1ompare the
a<<re<ated 6eha:ior oB mi""ions oB 1ons)mers ?ith the 6eha:ior oB tens oB 1o)ntries# There is no ana"o<83 not eno)<h oB a pattern 1an
emer<e Brom so Be? parti1ipants# 7oreo:erC e:en iB a market"ike pattern did emer<eC a Be? 6ad de1isions ?o)"d sti"" 6e madeC as the8
are made in the market# The diBBeren1e is that in the 1onte-t oB n)1"ear pro"iBeration e:en a Be? 6ad 1hoi1es 1an ha:e de:astatin<
1onseA)en1es# .n the endC thenC Wa"tz sho?s ?h8 pro"iBeration is "ike"8 to o11)rC and (a<an sho?s some oB the pro6"ems that
pro"iBeration ?i"" en<ender# 4B the t?o ar<)mentsC no do)6tC (a<anRs ?i"" 6e more attra1ti:e to po"i18makers# Too m)1h Baith in the
rationa"it8 oB states is reA)ired Bor Wa"tzRs predi1tions#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
%0/68
AT: ECONOMIC INTERDEPENDANCE
1conomics cannot e.plain the a#sence o! war
Fervis, 'dlai 1. 0tevenson Dro!essor o! International Dolitics, Colum#ia /niversity, 2002
NRo6ertC JTheories oB War in an ,ra oB Leadin< Po?er Pea1eK# meri1an Po"iti1a" (1ien1e Re:ie? 9631'1*#O
There are Bo)r <enera" ar<)ments a<ainst the pa1iBi1 inB")en1e oB interdependen1e# !irstC it is hard to <o Brom the ma<nit)de oB
e1onomi1 B"o?s to the 1osts that ?o)"d 6e in1)rred iB the8 ?ere disr)ptedC and e:en more diBBi1)"t to estimate ho? m)1h po"iti1a"
impa1t these 1osts ?i"" ha:eC ?hi1h depends on the other 1onsiderations at p"a8 and the po"iti1a" 1onte-t# This means that ?e do not
ha:e a theor8 that te""s )s the ma<nit)de oB the eBBe1t# (e1ondC e:en the si<n oB the eBBe1t 1an 6e disp)ted3 interdependen1e 1an
in1rease 1onB"i1t as states <ain 6ar- <ainin< "e:era<e o:er ea1h otherC Bear that others ?i"" e-p"oit themC and Ba1e additiona" so)r1es oB
disp)tes N5ar6ieri 1996Q ;eohane 2000C 2001Q Wa"tz 1900C 1909C &hap# 0O# These eBBe1ts mi<ht not arise iB states e-pe1t to remain at
pea1e ?ith ea1h otherC ho?e:er# ThirdC it is 1"ear that interdependen1e does not <)arantee pea1e# @i<h "e:e"s oB e1onomi1 inte<ration
did not pre:ent Wor"d War .C and nations that ?ere m)1h more )niBied than an8 se1)rit8 1omm)nit8 ha:e pea1eB)""8 disso":ed or
Bo)<ht 1i:i" ?ars# 5)t this does not mean that inter- dependen1e is not 1ond)1i:e to pea1e# !o)rthC interdependen1e ma8 6e more an
eBBe1t than a 1a)seC more the prod)1t than a <enerator oB e-pe1tations oB pea1e and 1ooperation# R)ssett and 4nea" N2001C 1%6O tr8 to
meet this o6Fe1tion 68 1orre"atin< the "e:e" oB trade in one 8earC not ?ith pea1e in that 8earC 6)t ?ith pea1e in the Bo""o?in< one# 5)t
this does not <et to the heart oB the matter sin1e trade the 8ear 6e- Bore 1o)"d 6e a prod)1t oB e-pe1tations oB B)t)re <ood re"ations#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
%8/68
AT: INSTITUTIONS CHECK
Institutions have positive e!!ects, #ut they(re not strong enough to restrain war
Fervis, 'dlai 1. 0tevenson Dro!essor o! International Dolitics, Colum#ia /niversity, 2002
NRo6ertC JTheories oB War in an ,ra oB Leadin< Po?er Pea1eK# meri1an Po"iti1a" (1ien1e Re:ie? 9631'1*#O
.nternationa" 4r<anizations# ,:en those ?ho ar<)e Bor the pa1iB8in< eBBe1t oB 1ommon mem6erships in internationa" or<anizations
a:er that the ma<nit)de oB this eBBe1t is re"ati:e"8 s"i<htC at "east in the short r)n NR)ssett and 4nea" 2001C &hap# +OC and so m8
dis1)ssion is 6rieB# The 1a)sa" me1hanisms are 6e"ie:ed to 6e se:era"3 enhan1ed inBormation B"o?sC <reater a6i"it8 to so":e pro6"ems
pea1eB)""8C an in1reased stake in 1ooperati:e 6eha:ior "inked to the risk oB 6ein< e-- 1")ded Brom the or<anization iB the state 6eha:es
6ad"8C and possi6"8 a hei<htened sense oB 1ommon identit8 N;eohane 198*Q m)1h oB the "iterat)re is s)mmarized 68 7artin and
(immons 1998O# @arder to pin do?n 6)t perhaps most important are pro1esses 68 ?hi1h Foint mem6ership a"ters statesR 1on1eptions oB
their interestC "eadin< them to see it not on"8 as 1a""in< Bor 1ooperati:e re1ipro1ationsC 6)t a"so as e-tendin< o:er a "on<er time-
horizon and in1")din< 6eneBits to others NLer:is 1999C 2001Q 7ar1h and 4"sen 1998O# The o6:io)s reasons to do)6t the importan1e oB
shared instit)tiona" mem6ership are that the in1enti:es do not seem <reat eno)<h to tame stron< 1onB"i1ts oB interest and that
mem6ership ma8 6e endo<eno)s to 1ommon interests and pea1eB)" re"ations# (tates that e-pe1t ?ar ?ith ea1h other are "ess "ike"8 to
Foin the same internationa" or<anizations and po"iti1a" 1onB"i1ts that are the pre1)rsors to ?ar ma8 destro8 the instit)tions or dri:e
some mem6ers o)tC as Lapan and German8 ?ithdre? Brom the Lea<)e oB $ations d)rin< the 19%0s# ,:en ?ith a stron< 1orre"ation and
reasona6"e 1on- tro" :aria6"esC the dire1tion oB 1a)sa"it8 is diBBi1)"t to esta6"ish#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
%9/68
1NC NUCLEAR WAR CAUSES EXTINCTION 1/2
*. The possi#ility o! nuclear e.tinction outweighs all other impacts-even i! the ris$ o! e.tinction is small, its magnitude re>uires
evaluation #e!ore all else
0chell, pro!essor at 8esleyan /niversity , *+,2 NLonathanC C Bormer ?riter and editor at the $e? EorkerC JThe !ate oB the ,arthCK p<# 9%-9*O
`To sa8 that h)man e-tin1tion is a 1ertaint8 ?o)"dC oB 1o)rseC 6e a misrepresentationIF)st as it ?o)"d 6e a misrepresentation to sa8 that e-tin1tion 1an
6e r)"ed o)t # To 6e<in ?ithC ?e kno? that a ho"o1a)st ma8 not o11)r at a""# .B one does o11)rC the ad:ersaries ma8 not )se a"" their ?eapons# .B the8 do )se a"" their ?eaponsC the <"o6a" eBBe1tsC in the ozone and
e"se?hereC ma8 6e moderate# nd iB the eBBe1ts are not moderate 6)t e-tremeC the e1osphere ma8 pro:e resi"ient eno)<h to ?ithstand them ?itho)t 6reakin< do?n 1atastrophi1a""8# These are a"" s)6stantia" reasons Bor
s)pposin< that mankind ?i"" not 6e e-tin<)ished in a n)1"ear ho"o1a)stC or e:en that e-tin1tion in a ho"o1a)st is )n"ike"8C and the8 tend to 1a"m o)r Bear and to red)1e o)r sense oB )r<en18# Eet at the same time ?e are
1ompe""ed to admit that there ma8 6e a ho"o1a)stC that the ad:ersaries ma8 )se a"" their ?eaponsC that the <"o6a" eBBe1tsC in1")din<
eBBe1ts oB ?hi1h ?e are as 8et )na?areC ma8 6e se:ereC that the e1osphere ma8 s)BBer 1atastrophi1 6reakdo?nC and that o)r spe1ies
ma8 6e e-tin<)ished# We are "eBt ?ith )n1ertaint8C and are Bor1ed to make o)r de1isions in a state oB )n1ertaint8# .B ?e ?ish to a1t to
sa:e o)r spe1iesC ?e ha:e to m)ster o)r reso":e in spite oB o)r a?areness that the "iBe oB the spe1ies ma8 not no? in Ba1t 6e
Feopardized # 4n the other handC iB ?e ?ish to i<nore the peri"C ?e ha:e to admit that ?e do so in the kno?"ed<e that the spe1ies ma8 6e
in dan<er oB imminent se"B-destr)1tion# When the e-isten1e oB n)1"ear ?eapons ?as made kno?nC tho)<htB)" peop"e e:er8?here in the ?or"d rea"ized that iB the <reat po?ers
entered into a n)1"ear-arms ra1e the h)man spe1ies ?o)"d sooner or "ater Ba1e the possi6i"it8 oB e-tin1tion # The8 a"so rea"ized that in the a6sen1e oB
internationa" a<reements pre:entin< it an arms ra1e ?o)"d pro6a6"8 o11)r# The8 kne? that the path oB n)1"ear armament ?as a dead end Bor mankind# The dis1o:er8 oB the
ener<8 in massIoB Uthe 6asi1 po?er oB the )ni:erseUIand oB a means 68 ?hi1h man 1o)"d re"ease that ener<8 a"tered the re"ationship
6et?een man and the so)r1e oB his "iBe C the earth# .n the shado? oB this po?erC the earth 6e1ame sma"" and the "iBe oB the h)man
spe1ies do)6tB)"# .n that senseC the A)estion oB h)man e-tin1tion has 6een on the po"iti1a" a<enda oB the ?or"d e:er sin1e the Birst
n)1"ear ?eapon ?as detonatedC and there ?as no need Bor the ?or"d to 6)i"d )p its present tremendo)s arsena"s 6eBore startin< to ?orr8 a6o)t it# t F)st ?hat point the spe1ies 1rossedC or ?i"" ha:e
1rossedC the 6o)ndar8 6et?een mere"8 ha:in< the te1hni1a" kno?"ed<e to destro8 itse"B and a1t)a""8 ha:in< the arsena"s at handC read8 to 6e )sed at an8 se1ondC is not pre1ise"8 kno?a6"e# 5)t it is 1"ear that at
presentC ?ith some t?ent8 tho)sand me<atons oB n)1"ear e-p"osi:e po?er in e-isten1eC and ?ith more 6ein< added e:er8 da8C ?e ha:e entered into the zone
oB )n1ertaint8C ?hi1h is to sa8 the zone oB risk oB e-tin1tion# 5)t the mere risk oB e-tin1tion has a si<niBi1an1e that is 1ate<ori1a""8
diBBerent BromC and immeas)ra6"8 <reater thanC that oB an8 other riskC and as ?e make o)r de1isions ?e ha:e to take that si<niBi1an1e
into a11o)nt# 9p to no?C e:er8 risk has 6een 1ontained ?ithin the Brame oB "iBeQ e-tin1tion ?o)"d shatter the Brame# .t represents not
the deBeat oB some p)rpose 6)t an a68ss in ?hi1h a"" h)man p)rposes ?o)"d 6e dro?ned Bor a"" time# We ha:e no ri<ht to p"a1e the
possi6i"it8 oB this "imit"essC eterna" deBeat on the same Bootin< as risks that ?e r)n in the ordinar8 1ond)1t oB o)r aBBairs in o)r
parti1)"ar transient moment oB h)man histor8# To emp"o8 a mathemati1a" ana"o<8C ?e 1an sa8 that a"tho)<h the risk oB e-tin1tion ma8
6e Bra1tiona"C the stake isC h)man"8 speakin<C inBiniteC and a Bra1tion oB inBinit8 is sti"" inBinit8# .n other ?ordsC on1e ?e "earn that a
ho"o1a)st mi<ht "ead to e-tin1tion ?e ha:e no ri<ht to <am6"eC 6e1a)se iB ?e "oseC the <ame ?i"" 6e o:erC and neither ?e nor an8one
e"se ?i"" e:er <et another 1han1e# ThereBoreC a"tho)<hC s1ientiBi1a""8 speakin<C there is a"" the diBBeren1e in the ?or"d 6et?een the mere possi6i"it8 that a
ho"o1a)st ?i"" 6rin< a6o)t e-tin1tion and the 1ertaint8 oB itC mora""8 the8 are the sameC and ?e ha:e no 1hoi1e 6)t to address the iss)e oB n)1"ear
?eapons as tho)<h ?e kne? Bor a 1ertaint8 that their )se ?o)"d p)t an end to o)r spe1ies# .n ?ei<hin< the Bate oB the earth andC ?ith itC o)r o?n
BateC ?e stand 6eBore a m8ster8C and in tamperin< ?ith the earth ?e tamper ?ith a m8ster8# We are in deep i<noran1e# 4)r i<noran1e sho)"d dispose )s to ?onderC o)r
?onder sho)"d make )s h)m6"eC o)r h)mi"it8 sho)"d inspire )s to re:eren1e and 1a)tionC and o)r re:eren1e and 1a)tion sho)"d "ead )s to a1t ?itho)t de"a8 to ?ithdra?
the threat ?e no? pose to the earth and to o)rse":es# .n tr8in< to des1ri6e possi6"e 1onseA)en1es oB a n)1"ear ho"o1a)stC . ha:e mentioned the "imit"ess 1omp"e-it8 oB its
eBBe1ts on h)man so1iet8 and on the e1osphereIa 1omp"e-it8 that sometimes seems to 6e as <reat as that oB "iBe itse"B# 5)t iB these eBBe1ts sho)"d "ead to
h)man e-tin1tionC then a"" the 1omp"e-it8 ?i"" <i:e ?a8 to the )tmost simp"i1it8Ithe simp"i1it8 oB nothin<ness# WeIthe h)man ra1eIsha"" 1ease to
6e#a
2. 9uclear war would create a dust-induced winter that causes e.tinction
DhillipsC Ph2C Ph8si1sC &am6rid<eC 2000 N"anC C $)1"ear Winter Re:isitedC 41tC ???#pea1e#1a/n)1"ear?interre:isited#htmO
"to<etherC n)1"ear ?inter ?o)"d 6e an e1o"o<i1a" disaster oB the same sort oB ma<nit)de as the maFor e-tin1tions oB spe1ies that
ha:e o11)rred in the pastC the most Bamo)s one 6ein< 6+ mi""ion 8ears a<o at the 1reta1eo)s e-tin1tion# 4B a"" the spe1ies "i:in< at
the timeC a6o)t ha"B 6e1ame e-tin1t# The theor8 is that a "ar<e meteor made a <reat 1rater in the G)"B oB &a"iBorniaC p)ttin< a
tri""ion tons oB ro1k de6ris into the atmosphere# That is a tho)sand times as m)1h ro1k as is predi1ted Bor a n)1"ear ?arC 6)t the
soot Brom Bires 6"o1ks s)n"i<ht more eBBe1ti:e"8 than ro1k de6ris# .n n)1"ear ?inter there ?o)"d a"so 6e radioa1ti:e 1ontamination
<i:in< ?or"d?ide 6a1k<ro)nd radiation doses man8 times "ar<er than has e:er happened d)rin< the % 6i""ion 8ears oB e:o")tion#
The radiation ?o)"d nota6"8 ?orsen thin<s Bor e-istin< spe1iesC tho)<h it mi<htC 68 in1reasin< m)tationsC a""o? A)i1ker e:o")tion
oB ne? spe1ies Nperhaps main"8 inse1ts and <rassesO that 1o)"d to"erate the post-?ar 1onditions# N. sho)"d F)st mention that there is
no ?a8 the radioa1ti:it8 Brom a n)1"ear ?ar 1o)"d destro8 Ua"" "iBe on earthU# Peop"e m)st stop sa8in< that# There ?i"" 6e p"ent8 oB
e:o")tion aBter a ?arC 6)t it may not include us #O
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
*0/68
1NC NUCLEAR WAR CAUSES EXTINCTION 2/2
. Buman e.tinction li$ely even i! people survive mass in#reeding wipes them out
:och$ov, )em#er o! the )edical 'cademy o! 0ciences and ;irector o! the Institute o! Aenetics at the /00C 'cademy o!
0ciences, *+,2 H'cademician, , %The Cold and the ;ar$I The 8orld '!ter 9uclear 8ar&, p. *2*-*22O
1ademi1ian 5o1hko:3 When ?e ta"k a6o)t the e1o"o<i1a" and 6io"o<i1a" 1onseA)en1es oB a n)1"ear ?arC ?e are oB 1o)rse Bo1)sin< on
h)mankind# Th)sC in thinkin< a6o)t the possi6i"ities oB h)man s)r:i:a" aBter a n)1"ear 1atastropheC ?e sho)"d not 6e aBraid to rea1h the
1on1")sion that the 1onditions that ?o)"d pre:ai" ?o)"d not a""o? the s)r:i:a" oB h)man 6ein<s as a spe1ies# We sho)"d pro1eed Brom
the ass)mption that man has adapted to his en:ironment d)rin< a "on< e:o")tionar8 pro1ess and has paid the pri1e oB nat)ra" se"e1tion#
4n"8 o:er the past Be? tho)sand 8ears has he adapted his en:ironment to his needs and has 1reatedC so to speakC an artiBi1ia"
en:ironment to pro:ide BoodC she"terC and other ne1essities# Witho)t thisC modem man 1annot s)r:i:e# &ompared to the dramati1
impro:ements made in the te1hno"o<i1a" en:ironmentC 6io"o<i1a" nat)re has not 1han<ed in the re1ent past# .n the statements oB 2r#
,hr"i1h and 1ademi1ian 5a8e:C ?e ha:e heard a6o)t the man8 1onstraints there ?o)"d 6e on the possi6i"it8 oB manRs s)r:i:a" aBter a
n)1"ear 1atastrophe# 5e1a)se ?e a"so ha:e to "ook at the more "on<-ran<e B)t)reC . ?o)"d "ike to point o)t that most "on<-term eBBe1ts
oB a n)1"ear ?ar ?i"" 6e <eneti1# .B is"ands oB h)manit8Ior as 2r# ,hr"i1h has saidC <ro)ps oB peop"e on is"ands some?here in the
o1eanIsho)"d s)r:i:eC ?hat ?i"" the8 Ba1e in terms oB <eneti1 1onseA)en1es? .B the pop)"ation drops sharp"8C the A)estion then
arises oB the 1riti1a" n)m6ers oB a pop)"ation that ?o)"d 6e ne1essar8 to ens)re its reprod)1tion# 4n the one hand there ?i"" 6e
minim)m n)m6ers oB h)man 6ein<sQ on the other handC 6e1a)se oB the sma"" n)m6ersC there ?i"" 6e iso"ation# There ?i"" deBinite"8 6e
in6reedin<C and "etha" m)tations ?i"" 1ome to the Bore as a res)"t oB thisC 6e1a)se oB Beta" and neonata" e-pos)re to radiation and
6e1a)se oB e-pos)re to Ba""o)t# $e? m)tations ?i"" arise and <enes and 1hromosomes ?i"" 6e dama<ed as a res)"t oB the radiationC so
there ?i"" 6e an additiona" <eneti1 "oad to 6ear# There ?i"" 6e nat)ra" a6errations and death at 6irthC so that the 6)rden oB hereditar8
i""nesses ?i"" 6e on"8 part oB a "ar<e "oad# This )ndo)6ted"8 ?i"" 6e 1ond)1i:e to the e"imination oB h)manit8C 6e1a)se h)mankind ?i""
not 6e a6"e to reprod)1e itse"B as a spe1ies#
2. 9uclear war depletes o@one, causing e.tinction
0agan and Turco, astrophysicist and astronomer at Cornell /niversity, and !ounding director o! /CE'4s Institute o! the
1nvironment, *++0
N&ar" and Ri1hardC astroph8si1ist and astronomer at &orne"" 9ni:ersit8C and Bo)ndin< dire1tor oB 9&LRs .nstit)te oB the ,n:ironmentC
J Path Where $o 7an Tho)<ht3 $)1"ear Winter and the ,nd oB the rms Ra1eCK p< +0-8O
$ot a"" oB these Ba1tors are taken into a11o)nt in the ne? 1a"1)"ations# The e:ent)a" dep"etion oB the ozone "a8er in the $orthern
@emisphere Bo""o?in< a n)1"ear ?ar 1o)"d rea1h M0P 3 that isC on"8 %0Z oB the present ozone ?o)"d 6e "eBt .n the (o)thern
@emisphereC ?here "ess than 1+Z oB the h)man pop)"ation "i:esC the ozone 1ontent ?o)"d initia""8 in1rease 68 %0Z or moreC d)e to
the arri:a" oB $orthern @emisphere ozone# LaterC some red)1tion ?o)"d o11)rIa"tho)<h ?hether to "ess than pre?ar "e:e"s is
1)rrent"8 )nkno?n# The res)"tin< )"tra-:io"et hazards are :er8 serio)sC in1")din< a <reat"8 enhan1ed in1iden1e oB skin 1an1erC
espe1ia""8 in "i<ht-skinned peop"eQ 1atara1tsQ and a B)rther assa)"t on the h)man imm)ne s8stem# These eBBe1tsC oB 1o)rseC ?o)"d 6e
restri1ted to those ?ho :ent)re o)t-oB-doorsI6)t in the aBtermath oB a n)1"ear ?arC a "ar<e n)m6er oB s)r:i:ors ?o)"d ha:e to 6e o)t-
oB- doors# 58 Bar the most serio)s 1onseA)en1e oB s)1h se:ere dep"etion oB the ozone "a8erC ho?e:erC app"ies to peop"e indoors and
o)tdoorsC 6e1a)se e:er8one has to eat3 4zone dep"etion threatens the Bood 1hains on ?hi1h a"most all li!e on 1arth depends# .n the
o1eansC there are tin8 mi1ros1opi1 p"antsC 1a""ed ph8top"anktonC ?hi1h are hi<h"8 :)"nera6"e to in1reases in )"tra:io"et "i<htQ and
?hi1hC dire1t"8 or indire1t"8C other anima"s in the marine Bood 1hainIin1")din< h)mansIeat# Land p"antsC in1")din< 1ropsC are a"so
:)"nera6"e to in1reased )"tra:io"et "i<htC as are most mi1ro6esC in1")din< those essentia" Bor the Bood 1hain# N9"tra:io"et "amps ?ere
on1e )sed in hospita" operatin< rooms to ki"" potentia" disease mi1roor<anisms#O We are Bar too i<norant oB the <"o6a" e1o"o<i1a"
intera1tions to )nderstand B)""8 ?hat propa<atin< 6io"o<i1a" 1onseA)en1es an assa)"t on the ozone "a8er ?o)"d entai" NreBs# *# 10C 6#%O#
5)t it doesnt take a <reat depth oB )nderstandin< to re1o<nize that iB 8o) rip )p the 6ase oB the Bood 1hainC 8o) ma8 <enerate a
disaster amon< the 6ein<s that totter pre1ario)s"8 near the pinna1"e# Re1o:er8 oB the ozone shie"d ?o)"d pro6a6"8 take se:era" 8ears#
58 then enormo)s dama<e ?o)"d ha:e 6een ?ro)<ht#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
*1/68
EXT %& OONE
9uclear war causes massive o@one depletion
0agan and Turco, astrophysicist and astronomer at Cornell /niversity, and !ounding director o! /CE'4s Institute o! the
1nvironment, *++0
N&ar" and Ri1hardC astroph8si1ist and astronomer at &orne"" 9ni:ersit8C and Bo)ndin< dire1tor oB 9&LRs .nstit)te oB the ,n:ironmentC
J Path Where $o 7an Tho)<ht3 $)1"ear Winter and the ,nd oB the rms Ra1eCK p< +0-8O
5)t in a n)1"ear ?arC the atmosphere ?o)"d 6e so pert)r6ed that o)r norma" ?a8 oB thinkin< a6o)t the ozone "a8er needs to 6e
modiBied# To he"p reBo1)s o)r )nderstandin<C se:era" resear1h <ro)ps ha:e 1onstr)1ted mode"s that des1ri6e the ozone "a8er Bo""o?in<
n)1"ear ?ar# The prin1ipa" ?ork has 6een 1arried o)t 68 resear1h teams at the $ationa" &enter Bor tmospheri1 Resear1h and at the
Los "amos $ationa" La6orator8 NreB# *#9O# 5oth Bind that there is an additiona" me1hanism 68 ?hi1h n)1"ear ?ar threatens the ozone
"a8er# With massi:e A)antities oB smoke inFe1ted into the "o?er atmosphere 68 the Bires oB n)1"ear ?arC n)1"ear ?inter ?o)"d <rip not
on"8 the ,arthRs s)rBa1eC 6)t the hi<h ozone "a8er as ?e""# The se:ere"8 dist)r6ed ?ind 1)rrents 1a)sed 68 so"ar heatin< oB smoke
?o)"dC in a matter oB ?eeksC s?eep most oB the ozone "a8er Brom the northern mid"atit)des deep into the (o)thern @emisphere# The
red)1tion in the ozone "a8er 1ontent in the $orth 1o)"d rea1h a de:astatin< +0Z or more d)rin< this phase# s time pro<ressedC the
ozone dep"etion ?o)"d 6e made sti"" ?orse 68 se:era" eBBe1ts3 inFe1tion oB "ar<e A)antities oB nitro<en o-ides and 1h"orine-6earin<
mo"e1)"es a"on< ?ith the smoke 1"o)dsQ heatin< oB the ozone "a8er 1a)sed 68 intermin<"in< oB hot smok8 air Nas air is heatedC the
amo)nt oB ozone de1"inesOQ and de1omposition oB ozone dire1t"8 on smoke parti1"es N1ar6on parti1"es are sometimes )sed do?n here
near the <ro)nd to 1"eanse air oB ozoneO#
?@one depletion causes e.tinction
Areenpeace in N+3
NJ!)"" oB @omes3 The 7ontrea" Proto1o" and the &ontin)in< 2estr)1tion oB the 4zone La8erC
http3//ar1hi:e#<reenpea1e#or</ozone/ho"es/ho"e6<#htm"O
When 1hemists (her?ood Ro?"and and 7ario 7o"ina Birst post)"ated a "ink 6et?een 1h"oroB")oro1ar6ons and ozone "a8er dep"etion
in 190*C the ne?s ?as <reeted ?ith s1epti1ismC 6)t taken serio)s"8 nonethe"ess# The :ast maForit8 oB 1redi6"e s1ientists ha:e sin1e
1onBirmed this h8pothesis#
The ozone "a8er aro)nd the ,arth shie"ds )s a"" Brom harmB)" )"tra:io"et radiation Brom the s)n# Witho)t the ozone "a8erC "iBe on earth
?o)"d not e-ist# ,-pos)re to in1reased "e:e"s oB )"tra:io"et radiation 1an 1a)se 1atara1tsC skin 1an1erC and imm)ne s8stem s)ppression
in h)mans as ?e"" as inn)mera6"e eBBe1ts on other "i:in< s8stems# This is ?h8 Ro?"andRs and 7o"inaRs theor8 ?as taken so serio)s"8C
so A)i1k"8 - the stakes are "itera""8 the 1ontin)ation oB "iBe on earth#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
*2/68
1NC AT: PREDICTIONS !AD 1/'
*. ?ur authors can ma$e rational predictions to determine pro#a#ility. Ce"ecting the neg #ecause there(s a ris$ our
predictions are #ad is asinine and replicates the logic o! Ira> planners
Fit@simmons, 0M N7i1hae"C JThe Pro6"em oB 9n1ertaint8 in (trate<i1 P"annin<KC ()r:i:a"C Winter 06/00O ((
!ina""8C the p"annin< Bor post-?ar operations in .raA oBBers another perspe1- ti:e on the tan<"ed re"ationship 6et?een )n1ertaint8 and strate<8# Pro6"ems oB predi1tin<
the B)t)re are at the heart oB inte""i<en1e ana"8sis and its ro"e in nationa"-se1)rit8 strate<8# Whi"e Be? ?o)"d A)estion the Bra<i"it8 oB inte""i<en1e estimates or the
1heA)ered histor8 oB F)d<ements made 68 the 9( inte""i<en1e 1omm)nit8C predi1tion remains an important part oB its mission# 5e8ond 1o""e1t- in< and reportin< ra?
inBormationC inte""i<en1e or<anisations are oBten e-pe1ted to identiB8 trends and 1onsider the imp"i1ations oB a"ternati:e strate<ies on the 6eha:io)r oB a""ies and
ad:ersaries# To a11omp"ish this diBBi1)"t missionC inte""i- <en1e ana"8sts m)st re"8 on t?o 1r)1ia" reso)r1es3 <ood ana"8ti1 trade1raBt that pro:ides transparent standards
oB e:iden1eC and s)6Fe1t-matter e-pertise that ena6"es an appre1iation Bor the s)6t"eties oB 1omp"e- h)man phenomena# 5)t standards oB e:iden1e and s)6Fe1t-
matter e-pertise are e-a1t"8 the sorts oB Ba1tors de1ision-makers s1epti1a" oB the re"ia6i"it8 oB predi1tion mi<ht 6e apt to dis1o)nt# .B
)n1ertaint8 deBines the strate<i1 en:ironmentC then ?hat <reater insi<ht 1an the e-pert ana"8st 6rin< to 6ear on strate<8 than the
<enera"ist? This attit)de 1o)"d mar<ina"ise inte""i<en1e ana"8sis in strate<i1 de1ision-makin<# 9( p"annin< Bor the aBtermath oB the .raA War
e-emp"iBies ho? s)1h mar- <ina"isation has p"a8ed a si<niBi1ant ro"e in re1ent strate<i1 de1ision-makin<# .n the F)d<ement oB Pa)" Pi""arC the senior 9( inte""i<en1e oBBi1ia" Bor 7idd"e ,ast
ana"8sis Brom 2000 to 200+C M?hat is most remarka6"e a6o)t pre?ar 9#(# inte""i-<en1e on .raA is not that it <ot thin<s ?ron< and there68 mis"ed po"i18makersQ it is that it p"a8ed so sma"" a ro"e
in one oB the most important 9#(# po"i18 de1isions in re1ent de1ades#26 Whi"e <reat :o")mes oB ink ha:e 6een spi""ed in the de6ate o:er inte""i<en1e estimates oB .raAi n)1"earC 6io"o<i1a" or
1hemi1a" ?eaponsC there is m)1h more 1"arit8 a6o)t the inte""i<en1e 1omm)nit8s estimates oB the po"iti1a" en:ironment the 9( ?o)"d Ba1e in post-?ar .raA# Those estimates a11)- rate"8
predi1ted most oB the maFor 1ha""en<es that de:e"opedC Brom ins)r<en18 and se1tarian :io"en1e to the stren<thenin< oB .rans <eopo"iti1a" hand and the <a":anisin< eBBe1t on Borei<n radi1a"
.s"amists#20 The reported e-pe1tations oB most ke8 administration oBBi1ia"s 6ore "itt"e resem6"an1e to these predi1tions#28 R)msBe"ds Bamo)s distin1tion 6et?een Mkno?n )nkno?ns and
M)nkno?n )nkno?ns 1ame in response to a reporters A)estion on the inte""i<en1e s)pportin< assertions oB "inka<es 6et?een the .raAi <o:ernment and terrorist or<anisations#29 The
imp"i1ation oB his remark ?as that pres)mption oB a <en)ine .raAi'terrorist "inka<e ?as F)stiBied 6e1a)se the a6sen1e oB e:iden1e to s)pport the pres)mption did not 1on1")si:e"8 dispro:e it#
@ereC as ?ith the post-?ar p"annin< ass)mptionsC )n1ertaint8 ser:ed to "e:e" the p"a8in< Bie"d 6et?een Ba1ts and ana"8sisC on the one handC and the pre1on1eptions oB senior "eadership on the
other# 7an8 oB the 9( <o:ernments e-perts on .raA and the ra6 ?or"d o)tside the inte""i<en1e 1omm)nit8 ?ere a"so mar<ina"ised in the p"annin< Bor the .raA War# .n 2002C the (tate
2epartment "a)n1hed the M!)t)re oB .raA ProFe1t to ?rite a detai"ed p"an Bor the <o:ernan1e oB a post-(addam demo1rati1 .raA# Parti1ipants in1")ded dozens oB 1areer 7idd"e ,ast spe1ia"ists
Brom the (tate 2epartment and the inte""i<en1e 1omm)nit8C as ?e"" as nati:e .raAis# The proFe1ts report 1o:ered a ?ide :ariet8 oB topi1sC Brom de:e"opment oB a 1onstit)tion to the
mana<ement oB m)ni1ipa" )ti"ities# .n the endC ho?e:erC "eaders in the White @o)se and the Penta<on :ie?ed the report as too pessimisti1 and i<nored man8 oB its 1on1")sions#%0 nother
?e""-p)6"i1ised instan1e ?here de1ision-makers reFe1ted e-pert ad:i1e on ?eak <ro)nds ?as the p)6"i1 e-1han<e 6et?een Penta<on 1i:i"ian "eaders and the rm8 1hieB oB staBB re<ardin< the
n)m6er oB <ro)nd troops reA)ired Bor s)11essB)" post-hosti"ities operations in .raA# 4ne month prior to the in:asionC Genera" ,ri1 (hinseki to"d the (enate rmed (er:i1es &ommittee that
esta6"ishin< se1)rit8 and 1onditions Bor po"iti1a" sta6i"it8 in .raA Bo""o?-in< the end oB maFor 1om6at operations ?o)"d take Mse:era" h)ndred tho)sand 1oa"ition <ro)nd troops# @is estimate
?as 6ased on the app"i1ation oB troop-to-pop)"ation ratios Brom pre:io)s se1)rit8 and sta6i"isation operations#%1 Whi"e Bair"8 r)dimentar8C the thr)st oB this ana"8sis ?as shared 68 a :ariet8 oB
e-pert ana"8sts o)tside the <o:ernment#%2 T?o da8s aBter (hinsekis testimon8C 6oth R)msBe"d and 2ep)t8 (e1retar8 oB 2eBense Pa)" Wo"Bo?itz p)6"i1"8 reno)n1ed the
estimate# Wo"Bo?itz to"d the @o)se 5)d<et &ommittee that (hinseki ?as M?i"d"8 oBB the markC and oBBered se:era" )ns)6stantiated andC in retrospe1tC
in1orre1t predi1-tions a6o)t post-?ar attit)des to?ard meri1an Bor1es amon< .raAis and 9( a""ies# @a:in< made these predi1tionsC he then
pro1eded to reFe1t the :a"idit8 oB makin< predi1tionsC insistin< that the Mmost B)ndamenta" point is that ?e simp"8 1annot predi1t ### ?e ha:e no idea ?hat ?e ?i"" need )n"ess and )nti"
?e <et there on the <ro)nd#%% .n eBBe1tC 68 den8in< the :a"idit8 oB predi1tionC Wo"Bo?itz "o1ked himse"B into a :er8 spe1iBi1 6)t imp"i1it predi1tion
that 1onBormed to his o?n pre1on1eptions# The point is neither that rm8 <enera"s are a"?a8s 6etter A)a"iBied to make s)1h F)d<ements than 1i:i"iansC nor that hindsi<ht sho?s (hinsekis
F)d<ement to 6e 6etter than Wo"Bo?itzs# .t is that the <ro)nds Bor the de1ision that ?as a1t)- a""8 made on troop "e:e"s ?ere 1onspi1)o)s"8 shakier than those oB (hinsekis F)d<ementC and 8et the8 pre:ai"ed# The mistakes
that ?ere made in the 5)sh administrations post-?ar p"annin< Bor .raA are entire"8 1onsistent ?ith a 6ias in de1ision-makin< a<ainst the a)thorit8 oB e-pertise in predi1tin< the B)t)reC and the in:o1ation oB
)n1ertaint8 in this instan1e 6e1ame a rationa"e Bor ri<idit8 in p"annin< rather than B"e-i6i"it8#
2. 0cenario planning is vital to create appropriate ris$ assessmentspolicyma$ers have an o#ligation to engage in these
predictions
Jurasawa, 02 NProBessor oB (o1io"o<8C Eork 9ni:ersit8 oB TorontoC !)8)kiC &onste""ations Po")me 11C $o *C 200*O# ((
radi1a""8 postmodern "ine oB thinkin<C Bor instan1eC ?o)"d "ead )s to 6e"ie:e that it is point"essC perhaps e:en harmB)"C to stri:e Bor
Barsi<htedness in "i<ht oB the aBorementioned 1risis oB 1on:entiona" paradi<ms oB histori1a" ana"8sis# .BC 1ontra te"eo"o<i1a" mode"sC
histor8 has no intrinsi1 meanin<C dire1tionC or endpoint to 6e dis1o:ered thro)<h h)man reasonC and iBC 1ontra s1ientisti1 B)t)rismC
prospe1ti:e trends 1annot 6e predi1ted ?itho)t errorC then the a68ss oB 1hrono"o<i1a" ins1r)ta6i"it8 s)pposed"8 opens )p at o)r Beet#
The B)t)re appears to 6e )nkno?a6"eC an o)t1ome oB 1han1e# ThereBoreC rather than em6arkin< )pon <randiose spe1)"ation a6o)t ?hat
ma8 o11)rC ?e sho)"d adopt a pra<matism that a6andons itse"B to the t?ists and t)rns oB histor8Q "et )s 6e 1ontent to Borm)"ate ad ho1
responses to emer<en1ies as the8 arise# Whi"e this ar<)ment has the merit oB )nders1orin< the Ba""i6i"isti1 nat)re oB a"" predi1ti:e
s1hemesC it 1onB"ates the ne1essar8 re1o<nition oB the 1ontin<en18 oB histor8 ?ith )n?arranted assertions a6o)t the "atters tota"
opa1it8 and indetermina18# 1kno?"ed<in< the Ba1t that the B)t)re 1annot 6e kno?n ?ith a6so")te 1ertaint8 does not imp"8
a6andonin< the task oB tr8in< to )nderstand ?hat is 6re?in< on the horizon and to prepare Bor 1rises a"read8 1omin< into their o?n# .n
Ba1tC the in1orporation oB the prin1ip"e oB Ba""i6i"it8 into the ?ork oB pre:ention means that ?e m)st 6e e:er more :i<i"ant Bor ?arnin<
si<ns oB disaster and Bor responses that pro:oke )nintended or )ne-pe1ted 1onseA)en1es Na point to ?hi1h . ?i"" ret)rn in the Bina"
se1tion oB this paperO# .n additionC Brom a normati:e point oB :ie?C the a11eptan1e oB histori1a" 1ontin<en18 and oB the se"B-"imitin<
1hara1ter oB Barsi<htedness p"a1es the d)t8 oB pre:entin< 1atastrophe sA)are"8 on the sho)"ders oB present <enerations# The B)t)re no
"on<er appears to 6e a metaph8si1a" 1reat)re oB destin8 or oB the 1)nnin< oB reasonC nor 1an it 6e s"o)<hed oBB to p)re randomness# .t
6e1omesC insteadC a res)"t oB h)man a1tion shaped 68 de1isions in the present ' in1")din<C oB 1o)rseC tr8in< to anti1ipate and prepare
Bor possi6"e and a:oida6"e so)r1es oB harm to o)r s)11essors# &om6inin< a sense oB ana"8ti1a" 1ontin<en18 to?ard the B)t)re and
ethi1a" responsi6i"it8 Bor itC the idea oB ear"8 ?arnin< is makin< its ?a8 into pre:enti:e a1tion on the <"o6a" sta<e#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
*%/68
1NC AT: PREDICTIONS !AD 2/'
. Turnre"ecting strategic predictions o! threats ma$es them inevita#ledecisionma$ers will rely on preconceived
conceptions o! threat rather than the more >uali!ied predictions o! analysts
5)t hand"in< e:en this ?eaker Borm oB )n1ertaint8 is sti"" A)ite 1ha""en<- in<# .B not s)BBi1ient"8 6o)ndedC a hi<h de<ree oB :aria6i"it8
in p"annin< Ba1tors 1an e-a1t a si<niBi1ant pri1e on p"annin<# The 1omp"e-it8 presented 68 <reat :aria6i"it8 strains the 1o<niti:e
a6i"ities oB e:en the most sophisti1ated de1ision- makers#1+ nd e:en a ro6)st de1ision-makin< pro1ess sensiti:e to 1o<niti:e
"imitations ne1essari"8 sa1riBi1es depth oB ana"8sis Bor 6readth as :aria6i"it8 and 1omp"e-it8 <ro?s# .t sho)"d Bo""o?C thenC that in
p"annin< )nder 1onditions oB riskC :aria6i"it8 in strate<i1 1a"1)"ation sho)"d 6e 1areB)""8 tai"ored to a:ai"a6"e ana"8ti1 and de1ision
pro1esses# Wh8 is this important? What harm 1an an im6a"an1e 6et?een 1omp"e-it8 and 1o<niti:e or ana"8ti1 1apa1it8 in strate<i1
p"annin< 6rin<? (tated simp"8C ?here ana"8sis is si"ent or inadeA)ateC the personal #elie!s o! decision-ma$ers !ill the void # s
po"iti1a" s1ientist Ri1hard 5etts Bo)nd in a st)d8 oB strate<i1 s)r- priseC in Man en:ironment that "a1ks 1"arit8C a6o)nds ?ith 1onB"i1tin<
dataC and a""o?s no time Bor ri<oro)s assessment oB so)r1es and :a"idit8C am6i<)it8 a""o?s int)ition or ?ishB)"ness to dri:e
interpretation ### The <reater the am6i<)it8C the <reater the impa1t oB pre1on1eptions#16 The de1ision-makin< en:ironment that 5etts
des1ri6es here is one oB po"iti1a"-mi"itar8 1risisC not "on<-term strate<i1 p"annin<# 5)t a strate<ist ?ho sees )n1ertaint8 as the 1entra"
Ba1t oB his en:ironment 6rin<s )pon himse"B some oB the patho"o<ies oB 1risis de1ision-makin<# @e in:ites am6i<)it8C takes
1onB"i1tin< data Bor <ranted and su#stitutes a priori scepticism a#out the validity o! prediction Bor time press)re as a rationa"e Bor
dis1o)ntin< the importan1e oB ana"8ti1 ri<o)r# .t is important not to e-a<<erate the e-tent to ?hi1h data and Mri<oro)s assessment 1an
i"")minate strate<i1 1hoi1es# m6i<)it8 is a Ba1t oB "iBeC and s1epti1ism oB ana"8sis is ne1essar8# 11ordin<"8C the int)ition and
F)d<ement oB de1ision-makers ?i"" a"?a8s 6e :ita" to strate<8C and attemptin< to s)6ordinate those Ba1tors to some Borm)"ai1C
deterministi1 de1ision-makin< mode" ?o)"d 6e 6oth )ndesira6"e and )nrea"isti1# "" the sameC there is dan<er in the opposite e-treme
as ?e""# Witho)t 1areB)" ana"8sis oB ?hat is re"ati:e"8 "ike"8 and ?hat is re"ati:e"8 )n"ike"8C ?hat ?i"" 6e the possi6"e 6ases Bor
strate<i1 1hoi1es? de1ision-maker ?ith no Baith in predi1tion is "eBt ?ith "itt"e more than a set oB ?orst-1ase s1enarios and his
e-istin< 6e"ieBs a6o)t the ?or"d to 1onBront the 1hoi1es 6eBore him# Those 6e"ieBs ma8 6e more or "ess ?e"" Bo)ndedC 6)t iB the8 are
not made e-p"i1it and s)6Fe1t to ana"8sis and de6ate re<ardin< their app"i1ation to parti1)"ar strate<i1 1onte-tsC the8 remain on"8
6e"ieBs and premisesC rather than rationa" F)d<ements# ,:en at their 6estC s)1h de1isions are "ike"8 to 6e poor"8 )nderstood 68 the
or<anisations 1har<ed ?ith their imp"ementation# t their ?orstC s)1h de1isions ma8 6e poor"8 )nderstood 68 the de1ision-makers
themse":es#
2. 8e agree that chaos, uncertainty, and insta#ility is inevita#le within the international systemhowever, that is a reason to
de!ault to predictions #ased o!! o! pro#a#ility
7)1h has 6een made a6o)t the deBinin< ro"e oB )n1ertaint8 in strate<i1 p"annin< sin1e the end oB the &o"d War# With the end oB
6ipo"ar 1ompetitionC so the ar<)ment <oesC and the a11e"eratin< pa1e oB 1han<e in te1hno"o<8 and internationa" po"iti1a" and
e1onomi1 re"ationsC Bore1astin< ?or"d e:ents e:en a Be? 8ears into the B)t)re has 6e1ome e-1eedin<"8 diBBi1)"t# .ndeedC Be? in the
8ear 2000 ?o)"d ha:e des1ri6ed ?ith m)1h a11)ra18 the 1)rrent 1onditions Ba1in< nationa"-se1)rit8 de1ision-makers# 7oreo:erC
histor8 oBBers amp"e e:iden1eC Brom the (1h"ieBBen P"an to the (o:iet e1onom8C that ri<id p"annin< 1reates risks oB 1atastrophi1
Bai")re# &"ear"8C )n1ertaint8 demands an appre1iation Bor the importan1e oB B"e-i6i"it8 in strate<i1 p"annin<# !or a"" oB its importan1eC
ho?e:erC re1o<nition oB )n1ertaint8 poses a di"emma Bor strate<ists3 in predi1tin< the B)t)reC the8 are "ike"8 to 6e ?ron<Q 6)t in
resistin< predi1tionC the8 risk 1"o)din< the rationa" 6ases Bor makin< strate<i1 1hoi1es# 4:er-1onBiden1e in predi1tion ma8 "ead to <ood
preparation Bor the ?ron< B)t)reC 6)t ?ho"esa"e dismissa" oB predi1tion ma8 "ead a strate<ist to spread his reso)r1es too thin"8# .n
p)rs)it oB B"e-i6i"it8C he ends )p ?e"" prepared Bor nothin<# nat)ra" 1ompromise is to 6)i"d strate<ies that are ro6)st a1ross
m)"tip"e a"ternati:e B)t)re e:ents 6)t are sti"" tai"ored to meet the 1ha"- "en<es oB the most "ike"8 B)t)re e:ents # Re1ent 9( nationa"
se1)rit8 strate<8C espe1ia""8 in the 2epartment oB 2eBenseC has :eered Brom this midd"e 1o)rse and p"a1ed too m)1h emphasis on the
ro"e oB )n1ertaint8# This emphasisC parado-i1a""8C i"")strates the hazards oB 6oth too m)1h a""o?an1e Bor )n1ertaint8 and too "itt"e#
&)rrent po"i1ies on n)1"ear-Bor1e p"annin< and the res)"ts oB the re1ent V)adrennia" 2eBense Re:ie? NV2RO are e-amp"es oB
o:errea1hin< Bor strate<i1 B"e-i6i"it8# The re1ord oB p"annin< Bor post-?ar operations in .raAC 68 1ontrastC indi1ates that de1ision-
makersC in en"istin< )n1ertaint8 as a rationa"e Bor dis1o)ntin< one set oB predi1tionsC ha:e Ba""en pre8 to o:er1onBiden1e in their o?n
a"ternati:e set oB predi1tions# more 6a"an1ed approa1h to a11o)ntin< Bor )n1ertaint8 in strate<i1 p"annin< ?o)"d address a ?ide
ran<e oB potentia" threats and se1)rit8 1ha""en<esC 6)t ?o)"d a"so in1orporate e-p"i1itC transparentC pro6a6i"isti1 reasonin< into
p"annin< pro1esses# The main 6eneBit oB s)1h an approa1h ?o)"d not ne1es- sari"8 6e more pre1ise predi1tions oB the B)t)reC 6)t rather
<reater 1"arit8 and dis1ip"ine app"ied to the diBBi1)"t F)d<ements a6o)t the B)t)re )pon ?hi1h strate<8 depends#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
**/68
1NC AT: PREDICTIONS !AD '/'
3. Dolicyma$ers will inevita#ly ma$e predictionsthe only >uestion is whether they(re #ased o!! o! e.plicit or implicit threats.
Failure to ma$e predictions #ased o!! o! e.plicit ris$ calculation guarantees poor decisionma$ing.
.n deBen1e oB predi1tion
9n1ertaint8 is not a ne? phenomenon Bor strate<ists# &"a)se?itz kne? that Mman8 inte""i<en1e reports in ?ar are 1ontradi1tor8Q e:en more are Ba"seC and most are )n1ertain# .n 1opin< ?ith )n1ertaint8C he 6e"ie:ed that M?hat
one 1an reasona6"8 ask oB an oBBi1er is that he sho)"d possess a standard oB F)d<mentC ?hi1h he 1an <ain on"8 Brom kno?"ed<e oB men and aBBairs and Brom 1ommon sense# @e sho)"d 6e <)ided 68 the "a?s oB pro6a6i"it8#%*
GrantedC one 1an 1ertain"8 a""o? Bor epistemo"o<i1a" de6ates a6o)t the 6est ?a8s oB <ainin< Ma standard oB F)d<ment Brom Mkno?"ed<e oB men and aBBairs and Brom 1ommon sense# (1ientiBi1 inA)ir8 into the M"a?s oB
pro6a6i"it8 Bor an8 <i:en strate- <i1 A)estion ma8 not a"?a8s 6e possi6"e or appropriate# &ertain"8C ana"8sis 1annot and sho)"d not 6e pres)med to tr)mp the int)ition oB de1ision-makers# $e:erthe"essC &"a)se?itzs
imp"i1ation seems to 6e that the 6)rden oB prooB in an8 de6ates a6o)t p"annin< sho)"d 6e"on< to the de1ision-maker ?ho reFe1ts Borma" ana"8sisC
standards oB e:iden1e and pro6a6i"isti1 reasonin<# 9"timate"8C tho)<hC the :a")e oB predi1tion in strate<i1 p"annin< does not rest
primari"8 in <ettin< the 1orre1t ans?erC or e:en in the more Beasi6"e o6Fe1ti:e oB 6o)ndin< the ran<e oB 1orre1t ans?ers# RatherC predi1tion reA)ires de1ision- makers to
e-poseC not on"8 to others 6)t to themse":esC the 6e"ieBs the8 ho"d re<ardin< ?h8 a <i:en e:ent is "ike"8 or )n"ike"8 and ?h8 it ?o)"d
6e important or )nimportant # Ri1hard $e)stadt and ,rnest 7a8 hi<h"i<ht this )seB)" propert8 oB pro6a6i"isti1 reasonin< in their reno?ned st)d8 oB the )se oB histor8 in de1ision-makin<C Thinkin< in
Time# .n dis1)ssin< the importan1e oB pro6in< pres)mptionsC the8 1ontend3
The need is Bor tests promptin< A)estionsC Bor sharpC strai<htBor?ard me1hanisms the de1ision makers and their aides mi<ht readi"8 re1a"" and )se to di< into their o?n and ea1h others pres)mptions# nd the8 need tests that
<et at 6asi1s some?hat 68 indire1tionC not 68 Bronta" inA)ir83 not M?hat is 8o)r inBerred 1a)sationC Genera"? 6o:e a""C notC M?hat are 8o)r :a")esC 7r# (e1retar8? ### .B someone sa8s Ma Bair 1han1e ### askC MiB 8o) ?ere a
6ettin< man or ?omanC ?hat odds ?o)"d 8o) p)t on that? .B others are presentC ask the same oB ea1hC and oB 8o)rse"BC too# Then pro6e the diBBeren1es3 ?h8? This is tantamo)nt to seekin< and then ar<)in< ass)mptions
)nder"8in< diBBerent n)m6ers p"a1ed on a s)6Fe1ti:e pro6a6i"it8 assessment# We kno? oB no 6etter ?a8 to Bor1e 1"ariBi1ation oB meanin<s ?hi"e e-posin< hidden diBBeren1es ### 4n1e diBBerin< odds ha:e 6een A)otedC the
A)estion M?h8? 1an Bo""o? an8 n)m6er oB tra1ks# r<)ment ma8 pit 1ommon sense a<ainst 1ommon sense or ana"o<8 a<ainst ana"o<8# What is important is that the e-perts 6asis Bor "inkin< MiB ?ith Mthen <ets e-posed to
the hearin< oB other e-perts 6eBore the "a8 oBBi1ia" has to sa8 8es or no#%+
There are at "east three 1riti1a" and re"ated 6eneBits oB predi1tion in strate- <i1 p"annin<# The Birst reB"e1ts $e)stadt and 7a8s point ' predi1tion enBor1es a 1ertain "e:e" oB dis1ip"ine in
makin< e-p"i1it the ass)mptionsC ke8 :aria6"es and imp"ied 1a)sa" re"ationships that 1onstit)te de1ision-makers 6e"ieBs and that
mi<ht other?ise remain imp"i1it# .ma<ineC Bor e-amp"eC iB (hinseki and Wo"Bo?itz had 6een made to assi<n pro6a6i"ities to their
opposin< e-pe1tations re<ardin< post-?ar .raA# $ot on"8 ?o)"d the8 ha:e had to ?ork harder to F)stiB8 their :ie?sC the8 mi<ht ha:e
seen more 1"ear"8 the s)6stantia" 1han1e that the8 ?ere ?ron< and had to make <reater eBBorts in their p"annin< to prepare Bor that
1ontin<en18# (e1ond"8C the :er8 pro1ess oB makin< the re"e:ant Ba1tors oB a de1i- sion e-p"i1it pro:ides a Birm C or at "east transparentC 6asis Bor
makin< 1hoi1es# "ternati:e 1o)rses oB a1tion 1an 6e 1ompared and assessed in "ike terms# ThirdC the transparen18 and dis1ip"ine oB the pro1ess oB arri:in< at the
initia" strate<8 sho)"d hei<hten the de1ision-makers sensiti:it8 to?ard 1han<es in the en:i- ronment that ?o)"d s)<<est the need Bor
adF)stments to that strate<8# .n this ?a8C predi1tion enhan1es rather than )nder-mines strate<i1 B"e-i6i"it8# This deBen1e oB predi1tion does not imp"8 that
<reat stakes sho)"d 6e <am6"ed on narro?C sin<)"ar predi1tions oB the B)t)re# 4n the 1ontrar8C the 1entra" pro6"em oB )n1ertaint8 in p"annin< remains that an8 <i:en predi1tion ma8 simp"8 6e ?ron<# Preparations Bor those
e:ent)a"ities m)st 6e made# .ndeedC in man8 1asesC re"ati:e"8 )n"ike"8 o)t1omes 1o)"d 6e enormo)s"8 1onseA)entia"C and thereBore merit e-tensi:e preparation and in:estment# .n order to na:i<ate this 1omp"e-it8C strate<ists
m)st ret)rn to the dis- tin1tion 6et?een )n1ertaint8 and risk# Whi"e the 1omp"e-it8 oB the internationa" se1)rit8 en:ironment ma8 make it some?hat resistant
to the t8pe oB pro6a6i"is- ti1 thinkin< asso1iated ?ith riskC a risk-oriented approa1h seems to 6e the on"8 :ia6"e mode" Bor nationa"-se1)rit8
strate<i1 p"annin<# The a"ternati:e approa1hC ?hi1h 1ate<ori1a""8 denies predi1tionC pre1")des strate<8# s 5etts ar<)esC
n8 ass)mption that some kno?"ed<eC ?hether int)iti:e or e-p"i1it"8 Borma"izedC pro:ides <)idan1e a6o)t ?hat sho)"d 6e done is a pres)mption that there is reason to 6e"ie:e the 1hoi1e ?i"" prod)1e a satisBa1tor8 o)t1ome
' that isC it is a predi1tionC ho?e:er ro)<h it ma8 6e# .B there is no hope oB dis1ernin< and manip)"atin< 1a)ses to prod)1e intended eBBe1tsC ana"8sts as ?e"" as po"iti1ians and <enera"s sho)"d a"" A)it and <o Bishin<# %6 9n"ess
the8 are ?i""in< to A)it and <o Bishin<C thenC strate<ists m)st sharpen their too"s oB risk assessment# Risk assessment 1omes in man8 :arietiesC 6)t identiBi1ation oB t?o ke8 parameters is 1ommon to a"" oB them3 the
1onseA)en1es oB a harmB)" e:ent or 1onditionQ and the "ike"ihood oB that harmB)" e:ent or 1ondition o11)rrin<# With no perspe1ti:e on "ike"ihoodC a strate<ist 1an ha:e no Birm perspe1ti:e on risk# With no Birm perspe1ti:e
on riskC strate<ists 1annot p)rposeB)""8 dis1riminate amon< a"ternati:e 1hoi1es# Witho)t p)rposeB)" 1hoi1eC there is no strate<8#
T T T
4ne oB the most ?ide"8 read 6ooks in re1ent 8ears on the 1omp"i1ated re"ationship 6et?een strate<8 and )n1ertaint8 is Peter (1h?artzs ?ork on s1enario-6ased p"annin<C The rt oB the Lon< Pie?# (1h?artz ?arns a<ainst
the hazards Ba1ed 68 "eaders ?ho ha:e deterministi1 ha6its oB mindC or ?ho den8 the diBBi1)"t imp"i1ations oB )n1ertaint8 Bor strate<i1 p"annin<# To o:er1ome s)1h tenden- 1iesC he ad:o1ates the )se oB a"ternati:e B)t)re
s1enarios Bor the p)rposes oB e-aminin< a"ternati:e strate<ies# @is :ie? oB s1enarios is that their <oa" is not to predi1t the B)t)reC 6)t to sensitise "eaders to the hi<h"8 1ontin<ent nat)re oB their de1ision-makin<#%0 This
phi"osoph8 has taken root in the strate<i1-p"annin< pro1esses in the Penta<on and other parts oB the 9( <o:ernmentC and proper"8 so# ,-amination oB a"ternati:e B)t)res and the potentia" eBBe1ts oB s)rprise on 1)rrent p"ans is
essentia"# ppre1iation oB )n1ertaint8 a"so has a n)m6er oB or<anisationa" imp"i- 1ationsC man8 oB ?hi1h the nationa"-se1)rit8 esta6"ishment is tr8in< to take to heartC s)1h as en1o)ra<in< m)"tidis1ip"inar8 st)d8 and trainin<C
enhan1in< inBormation sharin<C re?ardin< inno:ationC and p"a1in< a premi)m on speed and :ersati"it8# The ar<)ments ad:an1ed here seek to take nothin< a?a8 Brom these imperati:es oB p"annin< and operatin< in an
)n1ertain en:ironment# 5)t appre1iation oB )n1ertaint8 1arries hazards oB its o?n# V)estionin< ass)mptions is 1riti1a"C 6)t ass)mptions m)st 6e made in the end#
&"a)se?itzs Mstandard oB F)d<ment Bor dis1riminatin< amon< a"ternati:es m)st 6e app"ied# &reati:eC )n6o)nded spe1)"ation m)st reso":e to 1hoi1e or e"se there ?i"" 6e no strate<8# Re1ent histor8 s)<<ests that
)n1he1ked s1epti1ism re<ardin< the :a"idit8 oB predi1tion 1an mar<ina"ise ana"8sisC trade si<niBi1ant 1ost Bor am6i<- )o)s 6eneBitC empo?er paro1hia"
interests in de1ision-makin<C and )ndermine B"e-i6i"it8# 11ordin<"8C ha:in< B)""8 re1o<nised the need to 6roaden their strate<i1-p"annin< apert)reC nationa"-se1)rit8 po"i18makers
?o)"d do ?e"" no? to rein:i<orate their eBBorts in the mess8 6)t indispensa6"e 6)siness oB predi1tin< the B)t)re#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
*+/68
EXT %( PREDICTIONS INE#ITA!LE
1ven i! evidence is !lawed it(s the #est we have
/r#an Institute $onpartisan ,1onomi1 and (o1ia" Po"i18 Resear1h 4r<anization
GU5e8ond ideo"o<8C po"iti1sC b <)ess?ork3 The &ase Bor ,:iden1e-5ased Po"i18CU 7a8C
http3//???#)r6an#or</)p"oadedP2!/9006%6W,:iden1e5asedPo"i18#pdBH 7&
Whether resear1h dri:es po"i18 or po"i18 dri:es resear1hC an e:iden1e- 6ased approa1h has its "imitations# s e:er8 1o)rtroom F)d<e
1an :o)1hC a"" parties to disp)tes 1an Bind or 6)8 Je:iden1eK to their "ikin<C and po"i18makersC "ike F)d<es and F)riesC 1an 6e
hardpressed to separate the reasoned Brom the se"B-ser:in<# ;no?in< ho? and ?here to app"8 e:en the most in1ontro:erti6"e e:iden1e
is tri1k8C too# ,:iden1e 1an 6e am6i<)o)s or e:en 1ontradi1tor8C and it 1an 6e 1omp"e- or diBBi1)"t to interpret# "soC the path Brom
resear1h to so)nd po"i18 1an 6e "on< and ?indin<# 4BtenC as in the 1ases oB 1o)ntin< the )nins)red or the home"essC resear1h Bindin<s
on"8 <rad)a""8 t)rn into 1on:entiona" ?isdom and thenC m)1h "aterC he"p shape <ood po"i18# ndImere"8 h)manI resear1hers dont
a"?a8s admit toC )nderstandC or o:er1ome their o?n 6iases in <atherin<C se"e1tin<C or ana"8zin< data# These are serio)s pitBa""sC 6)t
the8 s)mmon to mind Winston &h)r1hi""s Bamo)s des1ription oB demo1ra18 as Jthe ?orst Borm oB <o:ernment e-1ept a"" others#K
&ompared to the a"ternati:esC e:iden1e-6ased po"i18 is simp"8 the 6est ?e:e <ot# Po"i18 positions 6ased "ar<e"8 on ideo"o<8 or
po"iti1a" 1onsiderations tend to a<itate the Bra<i"e 6od8 po"iti1 and a"ienate a si<niBi1ant Bra1tion oB meri1ansIthink oB aBBirmati:e
a1tion or ed)1ation :o)1hers# The8 are a"so "ike"8 to Bai" 6e1a)se the8 ma8 not 6e <ro)nded in the e1onomi1C instit)tiona"C and so1ia"
rea"it8 oB the pro6"em# @orse tradin< 1an <et a 6i"" passedC 6)t itRs no <)arantee that the pro6"em ?i"" rea""8 6e addressed# Goa"s
pro"iBerateC responsi6i"it8 is diBB)sedC and promises inB"ated# Po"iti1a""8 a11epta6"e doesnt ne1essari"8 mean eBBe1ti:eC aBBorda6"eC or
other?ise :ia6"e.
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
*6/68
AT: MEDIA SKEWS PREDICTIONS
They are right that the media is not per!ect. :ut, the proli!eration o! di!!erent types o! media ma$es government cover-ups
very di!!icult and can dramatically shape pu#lic opinion. 'nd, there is a healthy s$epticism o! the media that mo#ili@es citi@ens
to >uestion !urther.
Jurasawa, 02 NProBessor oB (o1io"o<8C Eork 9ni:ersit8 oB TorontoC !)8)kiC &onste""ations Po")me 11C $o *C 200*O#
$one oB this ?o)"d 6e possi6"e ?itho)t the e-isten1e oB <"o6a" mediaC ?hose speed and ran<e make it possi6"e Bor reports oB an
)nBo"din< or )p1omin< disaster to rea1h :ie?ers or readers in most parts oB the ?or"d a"most instantaneo)s"8# 2espite the hi<h"8
se"e1ti:e 1hara1ter oB ?hat is deemed ne?s?orth8 and state and 1ommer1ia" inB")en1e on ?hat is 6road1astC se:era" re1ent attempts to
hide e:iden1e oB a1ts oB mass :io"en1e NTiananmen (A)areC ,ast TimorC &he1hn8aC et1#O and 1rises Ne#<#C d)rin< the &herno68" n)1"ear
a11ident in the (o:iet 9nion or the (R( o)t6reak in &hinaO ha:e Bai"edQ Be? thin<s no? entire"8 es1ape Brom the sate""ite 1ameraC the
1e"")"ar te"ephoneC or the note6ook 1omp)ter# nd a"tho)<h the internet ma8 ne:er 6e1ome the pop)"ist pana1ea te1hno"o<i1a"
determinists ha:e 6een hera"din< Bor 8earsC it remains a ke8 de:i1e thro)<h ?hi1h 1on1erned 1itizens and a1ti:ists 1an share and
spread inBormation# Whi"e media 1o:era<e a"most a"?a8s Bo""o?s a 1risis rather than pre1edin< itC the 6road1ast oB sho1kin< ima<es
and testimonies 1an ne:erthe"ess shame <o:ernments and internationa" or<anizations into takin< immediate steps# The M&$$ or 55&
eBBe1tC to ?hi1h ?e sho)"d no? add the M"-Lazeera eBBe1tC is a s)rprisin<"8 po?erB)" Bor1e in impa1tin< ?or"d p)6"i1 opinionC as the
no? notorio)s 6) Ghrai6 prison photo<raphs remind )s# The possi6i"it8 that the threat oB media e-pos)re ma8 diss)ade indi:id)a"s
and <ro)ps Brom ena1tin< <eno1ida" p"ans or re1k"ess <am6"es ?ith o)r B)t)re is one oB the "8n1hpins oB pre:ention in o)r inBormation-
sat)rated a<e# re Bore?arnin<s oB disasters 6ein< heard? The mo6i"ization oB oBBi1ia" inter:ention and pop)"ar interest has 1ertain"8
6een mi-edC 8et <"o6a" 1i:i" so1iet8 is ha:in< some s)11ess in 1)"ti:atin< a)dien1es and ad:o1ates 1oa"es1in< aro)nd spe1iBi1 peri"s
Nmass h)man ri<hts :io"ationsC e1o"o<i1a" de:astationC <eneti1 en<ineerin<C epidemi1sC and so onO# Bter 5hopa" and &herno68"C aBter
Mmad 1o? disease and the ?ar in .raAC 1itizens are s1r)tinizin<C A)estionin< and e:en 1ontestin< oBBi1ia" e-pertise in risk assessment
more than e:er 6eBore#21 @en1eC in a ?or"d ?here ear"8 ?arnin<s oB 1ata1"8sms are oBten a:ai"a6"eC p"eadin< i<noran1e or
he"p"essness to anti1ipate ?hat ma8 1ome in the B)t)re 6e1omes "ess and "ess p"a)si6"e#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
*0/68
AT: PREDICTIONS $ STATE FEAR MONGERING
;e#ate is the antidote to state !ear mongeringscenario planning #y in!ormed groups can counter-act o!!icial misin!ormation.
'nd, the alternative is that the governments will continue to scare us #ut we will #e too apolitical and ill in!ormed to counter
act lies.
Jurasawa, 02 NProBessor oB (o1io"o<8C Eork 9ni:ersit8 oB TorontoC !)8)kiC &onste""ations Po")me 11C $o *C 200*O#
(tate and market instit)tions ma8 seek to prod)1e a 1)"t)re oB Bear 68 de"i6erate"8 stret1hin< interpretations oB rea"it8 6e8ond the
"imits oB the p"a)si6"e so as to e-a<<erate the prospe1ts oB impendin< 1atastrophesC or 8et a<ainC 68 intentiona""8 promotin< 1ertain
pro<noses o:er others Bor instr)menta" p)rposes# 11ordin<"8C re<ressi:e d8stopias 1an operate as TroFan horses ad:an1in< po"iti1a"
a<endas or 1ommer1ia" interests that ?o)"d other?ise 6e s)s1epti6"e to p)6"i1 s1r)tin8 and opposition# .nstan1es oB this kind oB
manip)"ation oB the d8stopian ima<inar8 are p"entiB)"3 the in:asion oB .raA in the name oB Bi<htin< terrorism and an imminent threat oB
)se oB M?eapons oB mass destr)1tionQ the se:ere 1)rtai"in< oB meri1an 1i:i" "i6erties amidst Bears oB a 1o""apse oB Mhome"and
se1)rit8Q the neo"i6era" dismant"in< oB the ?e"Bare state as the on"8 remed8 Bor an ideo"o<i1a""8 1onstr)1ted Bis1a" 1risisQ the
1onser:ati:e e-pansion oB po"i1in< and in1ar1eration d)e to s)pposed"8 spira"in< 1rime ?a:esQ and so Borth# "armism 1onstr)1ts and
1odes the B)t)re in parti1)"ar ?a8sC prod)1in< or reinBor1in< 1ertain 1risis narrati:esC 6e"ieB str)1t)resC and rhetori1a" 1on:entions# s
m)1h as a"armist ideas 6e<et a 1)"t)re oB BearC the re:erse is no "ess tr)e# .B Bear-mon<erin< is a misappropriation oB pre:enti:e
Boresi<htC resi<nation a6o)t the B)t)re represents a pro6"emati1 o)t<ro?th oB the pop)"ar a1kno?"ed<ment oB <"o6a" peri"s# (ome
6e"ie:e that the ?or"d to 1ome is so )n1ertain and dan<ero)s that ?e sho)"d not attempt to modiB8 the 1o)rse oB histor8Q the B)t)re ?i""
"ook aBter itse"B Bor 6etter or ?orseC re<ard"ess oB ?hat ?e do or ?ish# 4ne :ersion oB this ar<)ment 1onsists in a 1omp"a1ent optimism
per1ei:in< the B)t)re as Bated to 6e 6etter than either the past or the present# !reA)ent"8 a11ompan8in< it is a se"B-de")din< denia" oB
?hat is p"a)si6"e NMthe ?or"d ?i"" not 6e so 6ad aBter a""OC or a nai:e"8 Pan<"ossian pra<matism NMthin<s ?i"" ?ork themse":es o)t in
spite oB e:er8thin<C 6e1a)se h)mankind a"?a8s Binds ?a8s to s)r:i:eO#%0 7)1h more 1ommonC ho?e:erC is the opposite rea1tionC a
Bata"isti1 pessimism re1on1i"ed to the idea that the B)t)re ?i"" 6e ne1essari"8 ?orse than ?hat pre1eded it# This is s)stained 68 a tra<i1
1hrono"o<i1a" Brame?ork a11ordin< to ?hi1h h)manit8 is doomed to de1a8C or a 181"i1a" one oB the end"ess repetition oB the mistakes
oB the past# 4n top oB their d)6io)s assessments oB ?hat is to 1omeC a"armism and resi<nation ?o)"dC iB ?ide"8 a11eptedC )ndermine a
:ia6"e pra1ti1e oB Barsi<htedness# .ndeedC 6oth oB them en1o)ra<e p)6"i1 disen<a<ement Brom de"i6eration a6o)t s1enarios Bor the
B)t)reC a pro1ess that appears to 6e dan<ero)sC point"essC or )nne1essar8# The res)"tin< Mdep)6"i1ization oB de6ate "ea:es dominant
<ro)ps and instit)tions Nthe stateC the marketC te1hno-s1ien1eO in 1har<e oB sortin< o)t the B)t)re Bor the rest oB )sC th)s eBBe1ti:e"8
prod)1in< a heteronomo)s so1ia" order# @o?C thenC 1an ?e s)pport a demo1rati1 pro1ess oB pre:ention Brom 6e"o?? The ans?erC .
thinkC "ies in 1)"ti:atin< the p)6"i1 1apa1it8 Bor 1riti1a" F)d<ment and de"i6erationC so that parti1ipants in <"o6a" 1i:i" so1iet8 s)6Fe1t a""
1"aims a6o)t potentia" 1atastrophes to e-aminationC e:a")ationC and 1ontestation#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
*8/68
AT: POLLS !AD
Dolls are an e!!ective means o! ma$ing political predictionsempirically proveneven i! there are some margins o! error we
leave room !or interpretation o! the polls
Fudis, ,ILohn 5 L)disC The P"ankC JPo"" Predi1tionsK 9/29/08 ((
58 41to6er BirstC presidentia" tra1kin< po""s 6e<in to predi1t the ?inner in $o:em6er a11)rate"8# (in1e 1960C Ga"")ps tra1kin< po""
re<istered the ?inner in the pop)"ar :ote Nin1")din< " Gore in 2000OC e"e:en oB t?e":e times# The one e-1eption is 1980C ?hen Limm8
&arter sti"" "ed Rona"d Rea<an 68 ** to *0 per1ent# The "ate (eptem6er-ear"8 41to6er po""s ha:e not ne1essari"8 predi1ted the Bina"
mar<in# Third part8 1andidates )s)a""8 s1re? )p the tota"C 6e1a)se their s)pport )s)a""8 drops 68 the Bina" e"e1tionC and <enera""8 the
ra1e narro?s some?hat 68 the end# .n 1996C Bor instan1eC 5i"" &"inton "ed 5o6 2o"e 68 1* per1enta<e points on 41to6er Birst#
&"intons Bina" mar<in ?o)"d 6e 8#+ per1enta<e points# .n 200*C Geor<e W# 5)sh "ed Lohn ;err8 68 8 per1enta<e points# @is Bina"
mar<in ?o)"d 6e on"8 2#* points# 5)t in si- oB these e"e1tions--1960C 196*C 1906C 198*C 1988 and 2000--the Bina" mar<in ?as diBBerent
Brom the 41to6er Birst po""in< res)"ts 68 "ess than three per1enta<e points# Gi:en these res)"tsC s)pporters oB 5ara1k 46ama 1an take
heart Brom the Ba1t that he is "eadin< +0 to *2 per1ent in the "atest Ga"")p tra1kin< po"" #
Their evidence critici@es isolated e.amples o! pollsours are political and have large enough #ases to #e considered accurate
scienti!ically
J'8, MI;no?"ed<e at WhartonC La? and P)6"i1 Po"i18C JPo""in< the Po""in< ,-perts3 @o? 11)rate and 9seB)" are Po""s These
2a8s?K http3//kno?"ed<e#?harton#)penn#ed)/arti1"e#1Bm?arti1"eid=18*% ((
The 7ost and Least Re"ia6"e When it 1omes to po""sC not a"" are 1reated eA)a"# The most re"ia6"e? U()r:e8s 1ond)1ted 68 proBessiona"
po""in< or<anizations on a periodi1 6asis ?hi1h repeated"8 ask the same A)estion -- s)1h asC R2o 8o) intend to 6)8 a 1ar in the ne-t
three months?R -- are B)""8 s1ientiBi1 and )seB)"CU sa8s L# 7i1hae" (tee"e C Wharton proBessor oB statisti1s# U,:en tho)<h ?e rea""8 donRt
kno? ?hat a person means ?hen he sa8s R8esCR ?e 1an make ha8 o)t oB the Ba1t that "ast 8earC 1+Z said R8esR and this 8ear on"8 +Z said
R8es#RU n e-amp"e oB a po""in< 1ompan8 that Bits this proBi"e is the Ga"")p or<anization and the Ga"")p Po""C 1onsidered a "eadin<
6arometer oB p)6"i1 opinion# What a6o)t po""s that are potentia""8 inBormati:e 6)t nonethe"ess pro6"emati1 ?hen it 1omes to
re"ia6i"it8? The8Rre o)t thereC sa8s (tee"eC in the <)ise oB s)r:e8s that donRt ask repeat A)estions 6)t are 6ased on an honest pro6a6i"it8
samp"e# Their :a"idit8C he notesC Ua"" depends on the 1raBt oB the A)estion# 7arketin< Birms do this to <et honest ans?ers Bor their
1ommer1ia" )se# Po"iti1ians oBten ?ant honest ans?ersC 6)t sometimes are Bishin< Bor a ne?s item to p"ant#U 58 Bar the ?orst kinds oB
po""sC a11ordin< to e-pertsC are the .nternet po""s or ma<azine s)r:e8s that appea" to on"8 those ?ith a :ested interest in the A)estion#
UThe8 are ?orth"essC e-1ept Bor the p)rpose oB id"e entertainmentCU sa8s (tee"e# U!or e-amp"eC ma<azine RBa- 6a1kR po""s a6o)t the
Rri<ht to 1hooseR a"most a"?a8s 1ome 6a1k ?ith tons oB responses Brom the Rri<ht to "iBeR se1tor# The8 are F)nk#U .nternet po""sC he addsC
Uare 1raz8 ta"k# There is no inBormation at a""C e-1ept perhaps in the n)m6er oB peop"e ?ho respond# ()1h po""s Gdo a1tH as a ?a8 to
Bind hot topi1s in a tar<et a)dien1e# This is <ood Bor ma<azinesC 6)t 6ad Bor readers# The on"8 thin< thatRs s"i<ht"8 interestin< is that
the8 are a meas)rement oB passionate responders#U When it 1omes to 1omparin< 6)siness or marketin< po""s ?ith po"iti1a" po""sC
marketin< po""s are t8pi1a""8 1ond)1ted in order to se"" prod)1tsC test market re1eption and 1ons)mer opinionsC and identiB8 1)stomer
preBeren1es# Po"iti1a" po""sC on the other handC t8pi1a""8 tr8 to <a)<e :oter preBeren1es and opinionsC and determine ?hi1h 1andidates
?i"" ?in e"e1tions# U7arketin< po""s ha:e their o?n p)rposesCU sa8s Ri1hard LohnstonC proBessor oB po"iti1a" s1ien1e and resear1h
dire1tor oB the $ationa" nnen6er< ,"e1tion (t)d8 at the 9ni:ersit8 oB Penns8":ania# U7ost 1riti1a""8C the8 are "ess 1on1erned than
po"iti1a" po""s ?ith representation oB the tota" pop)"ationQ the8 are more 1on1erned ?ith representation oB the demo<raphi1s ?here
proBit is to 6e Bo)nd# The Gtar<et a)dien1eH tends to 6e more )r6an and more hi<h"8 ed)1atedC Bor e-amp"e# 78 sense is that marketers
are A)i1ker to adopt .nternet po""in< 6e1a)se the samp"es de"i:ered 68 that means are re"e:ant to their o6Fe1ti:es#U
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
*9/68
AT: ERROR RISKS TOO HIGH
?ur evidence assumes error ris$predictions in social sciences are still possi#le.
)earsheimer, 0* NLohnC proBessor oB po"iti1a" s1ien1e at the 9ni:ersit8 oB &hi1a<oC The Tra<ed8 oB Great Po?er Po"iti1sC 2001 p# 8C
<oo<"eprintO ((
s a res)"tC a"" po"iti1a" Bore1astin< is 6o)nd to in1")de some error# Those ?ho :ent)re to predi1tC as . do hereC sho)"d thereBore
pro1eed ?ith h)mi"it8C take 1are not to e-hi6it )n?arranted 1onBiden1eC and admit that hindsi<ht is "ike"8 to re:ea" s)rprises and
mistakes# 2espite these hazardsC so1ia" s1ientists sho)"d ne:erthe"ess )se their theories to make predi1tions a6o)t the B)t)re# 7akin<
predi1tions he"ps inBorm po"i18 dis1o)rseC 6e1a)se it he"ps make sense oB e:ents )nBo"din< in the ?or"d aro)nd )s# nd 68 1"ariB8in<
points oB disa<reementC makin< e-p"i1it Bore1asts he"ps those ?ith 1ontradi1tor8 :ie?s to Brame their o?n ideas more 1"ear"8#
!)rthermoreC tr8in< to anti1ipate ne? e:ents is a <ood ?a8 to test so1ia" s1ien1e theoriesC 6e1a)se theorists do not ha:e the 6eneBit oB
hindsi<ht and thereBore 1annot adF)st their 1"aims to Bit the e:iden1e N6e1a)se it is not 8et a:ai"a6"eO# .n shortC the ?or"d 1an 6e )sed as
a "a6orator8 to de1ide ?hi1h theories 6est e-p"ain internationa" po"iti1s# .n that spirit . emp"o8 oBBensi:e rea"ism to peer into the B)t)reC
mindB)" oB 6oth the 6eneBits and the hazards oB tr8in< to predi1t e:ents#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
+0/68
AT: TETLOCK
They misread Tetloc$his argument is "ust that you should rationally weigh costs and #ene!its
Tetloc$, 03 NPhi"ipC ps81ho"o<istC ,-pert Po"iti1a" L)d<ementC
http3//???#p)press#prin1eton#ed)/1hapters/s09+9#htm"O ((
&hapters 2 and % e-p"ore 1orresponden1e indi1ators# 2ra?in< on the "iterat)re on F)d<menta" a11)ra18C . di:ide the <)idin< h8potheses into t?o 1ate<ories3 those
rooted in radi1a" skepti1ismC ?hi1h eA)ates <ood po"iti1a" F)d<ment ?ith <ood ")1kC and those rooted in me"iorismC ?hi1h maintains that the A)est Bor predi1tors oB <ood
F)d<mentC and ?a8s to impro:e o)rse":esC is not A)i-oti1 and there are 6etter and ?orse ?a8s oB thinkin< that trans"ate into 6etter and ?orse F)d<ments# &hapter 2
introd)1es )s to the radi1a" skepti1s and their :aried reasons Bor em6ra1in< their 1o)nterint)iti:e 1reed# Their <)idin< pre1ept is thatC a"tho)<h ?e oBten ta"k o)rse":es
into 6e"ie:in< ?e "i:e in a predi1ta6"e ?or"dC ?e de")de o)rse":es3 histor8 is )"timate"8 one damned thin< aBter anotherC a random ?a"k ?ith )p?ard and do?n?ard
6"ips 6)t de:oid oB themati1 1ontin)it8# Po"iti1s is no more predi1ta6"e than other <ames oB 1han1e# 4n an8 <i:en spin oB the ro)"ette ?hee" oB histor8C 1ra1kpots ?i""
1"aim :indi1ation Bor s)perstitio)s s1hemes that posit patterns in randomness# 5)t these s1hemes ?i"" Bai" in 1ross-:a"idation# What ?orks toda8 ?i"" disappoint
tomorro?#%* @ere is a do1trine that r)ns a<ainst the <rain oB h)man nat)reC o)r shared need to 6e"ie:e that ?e "i:e in a 1omprehensi6"e ?or"d that ?e 1an master iB ?e
app"8 o)rse":es#%+ 9ndi")ted radi1a" skepti1ism reA)ires )s to 6e"ie:eC rea""8 6e"ie:eC that ?hen the time 1omes to 1hoose amon<
1ontro:ersia" po"i18 options--to s)pport &hinese entr8 into the Wor"d Trade 4r<anization or to 6om6 5a<hdad or 5e"<rade or to 6)i"d
a 6a""isti1 missi"e deBense--?e 1o)"d do as ?e"" 68 tossin< 1oins as 68 1ons)"tin< e-perts#%6 &hapter 2 presents e:iden1e Brom re<iona"
Bore1astin< e-er1ises 1onsistent ?ith this de6)nkin< perspe1ti:e# .t tra1ks the a11)ra18 oB h)ndreds oB e-perts Bor dozens oB 1o)ntries on topi1s as disparate as
transitions to demo1ra18 and 1apita"ismC e1onomi1 <ro?thC interstate :io"en1eC and n)1"ear pro"iBeration# When ?e pit e-perts a<ainst minima"ist perBorman1e
6en1hmarks--di"ettantesC dart-thro?in< 1himpsC and assorted e-trapo"ation a"<orithms--?e Bind Be? si<ns that e-pertise trans"ates into <reater a6i"it8 to make either
U?e""-1a"i6ratedU or Udis1riminatin<U Bore1asts# Radi1a" skepti1s ?e"1omed these res)"tsC 6)t the8 start sA)irmin< ?hen ?e start Bindin< patterns
oB 1onsisten18 in ?ho <ot ?hat ri<ht# Radi1a" skepti1ism te""s )s to e-pe1t nothin< N?ith the 1a:eat that iB ?e toss eno)<h 1oinsC e-pe1t some streakinessO# 5)t
the data re:ea"ed more 1onsisten18 in Bore1astersR tra1k re1ords than 1o)"d 6e as1ri6ed to 1han1e# 7e"iorists seize on these Bindin<s to ar<)e that 1r)de h)man-
:ers)s-1himp 1omparisons mask s8stemati1 indi:id)a" diBBeren1es in <ood F)d<ment# "tho)<h me"iorists a<ree that skepti1s <o too Bar in
portra8in< <ood F)d<ment as i"")sor8C the8 a<ree on "itt"e e"se# &o<niti:e-1ontent me"iorists identiB8 <ood F)d<ment ?ith a parti1)"ar o)t"ook 6)t sA)a66"e o:er ?hi1h
points oB :ie? represent mo:ement to?ard or a?a8 Brom the tr)th# &o<niti:e-st8"e me"iorists identiB8 <ood F)d<ment not ?ith ?hat one thinksC 6)t ?ith ho? one thinks#
5)t the8 sA)a66"e o:er ?hi1h st8"es oB reasonin<--A)i1k and de1isi:e :ers)s 6a"an1ed and tho)<htB)"--enhan1e or de<rade F)d<ment# &hapter % tests a m)"tit)de oB
me"iorist h8potheses--most oB ?hi1h 6ite the d)st# Who e-perts ?ere--proBessiona" 6a1k<ro)ndC stat)sC and so on--made s1ar1e"8 an iota oB diBBeren1e to a11)ra18# $or
did ?hat e-perts tho)<ht--?hether the8 ?ere "i6era"s or 1onser:ati:esC rea"ists or instit)tiona"istsC optimists or pessimists# 5)t the sear1h 6ore Br)it# @o? e-perts
tho)<ht--their st8"e oB reasonin<--did matter# &hapter % demonstrates the )seB)"ness oB 1"assiB8in< e-perts a"on< a ro)<h 1o<niti:e-
st8"e 1ontin))m an1hored at one end 68 .saiah 5er"inRs protot8pi1a" hed<eho< and at the other 68 his protot8pi1a" Bo-#%0 The
inte""e1t)a""8 a<<ressi:e hed<eho<s kne? one 6i< thin< and so)<htC )nder the 6anner oB parsimon8C to e-pand the e-p"anator8 po?er
oB that 6i< thin< to U1o:erU ne? 1asesQ the more e1"e1ti1 Bo-es kne? man8 "itt"e thin<s and ?ere 1ontent to impro:ise ad ho1 so")tions
to keep pa1e ?ith a rapid"8 1han<in< ?or"d# Treatin< the re<iona" Bore1astin< st)dies as a de1ath"on 6et?een ri:a" strate<ies oB
makin< sense oB the ?or"dC the Bo-es 1onsistent"8 ed<e o)t the hed<eho<s 6)t enFo8 their most de1isi:e :i1tories in "on<-term
e-er1ises inside their domains oB e-pertise# na"8sis oB e-p"anations Bor their predi1tions sheds "i<ht on ho? Bo-es p)""ed oBB this
1o<niti:e-st8"isti1 1o)p# The Bo-esR se"B-1riti1a"C point-1o)nterpoint st8"e oB thinkin< pre:ented them Brom 6)i"din< )p the sorts oB
e-1essi:e enth)siasm Bor their predi1tions that hed<eho<sC espe1ia""8 ?e""-inBormed onesC disp"a8ed Bor theirs# !o-es ?ere more sensiti:e to
ho? 1ontradi1tor8 Bor1es 1an 8ie"d sta6"e eA)i"i6ria andC as a res)"tC Uo:erpredi1tedU Be?er depart)resC <ood or 6adC Brom the stat)s A)o# 5)t Bo-es did not mind"ess"8
predi1t the past# The8 re1o<nized the pre1ario)sness oB man8 eA)i"i6ria and hed<ed their 6ets 68 rare"8 r)"in< o)t an8thin< as Uimpossi6"e#U These res)"ts Ba:or
me"iorism o:er skepti1ism--and the8 Ba:or the pro-1omp"e-it8 6ran1h oB me"iorismC ?hi1h pro1"aims the adapti:e s)periorit8 oB the tentati:eC 6a"an1ed modes oB
thinkin< Ba:ored 68 Bo-esC%8 o:er the pro-simp"i1it8 6ran1hC ?hi1h pro1"aims the s)periorit8 oB the 1onBidentC de1isi:e modes oB thinkin< Ba:ored 68 hed<eho<s#%9
These res)"ts a"so domesti1ate radi1a" skepti1ismC ?ith its ?i"d-e8ed imp"i1ation that e-perts ha:e nothin< )seB)" to te"" )s a6o)t the B)t)re 6e8ond ?hat ?e 1o)"d ha:e
"earned Brom tossin< 1oins or inspe1tin< <oat entrai"s# This tamer 6rand oB skepti1ism--skepti1a" me"iorism--sti"" ?arns oB the dan<ers oB h)6risC
6)t it a""o?s Bor ho? a se"B-1riti1a"C dia"e1ti1a" st8"e oB reasonin< 1an spare e-perts the 6i< mistakes that hammer do?n the a11)ra18 oB
their more inte""e1t)a""8 e-)6erant 1o""ea<)es#
Tetloc$(s analysis is out o! conte.t he wants to ma$e e.pert predictions #etter not de!ault to worse predictions
Caplan 3 asso1iate proBessor oB e1onomi1s at Geor<e 7ason 9ni:ersit8
G5r8anC UTa1k"in< Tet"o1kCU 12-26C http3//e1on"o<#e1on"i6#or</ar1hi:es/200+/12/ta1k"in<Wtet"o1W1#htm"H/7&
.s m8 1onBiden1e in e-perts 1omp"ete"8 misp"a1ed? . think not# Tet"o1kRs samp"e s)BBers Brom se:ere se"e1tion 6ias# @e de"i6erate"8
asked re"ati:e"8 diBBi1)"t and 1ontro:ersia" A)estions# s his methodo"o<i1a" appendi- e-p"ainsC A)estions had to UPass the RdonRt
6other me too oBten ?ith d)m6 A)estionsR test#U 2)m6 a11ordin< to ?ho? The imp"i1it ans?er is U2)m6 a11ordin< to the t8pi1a"
e-pert in the Bie"d#U What Tet"o1k rea""8 sho?s is that e-perts are o:er1onBident iB 8o) e-1")de the A)estions ?here the8 ha:e rea1hed
a so"id 1onsens)s# This is sti"" an important Bindin<# ,-perts rea""8 do make o:er1onBident predi1tions a6o)t 1ontro:ersia" A)estions#
We ha:e to stop doin< thatD @o?e:erC this does not sho? that e-perts are o:er1onBident a6o)t their 1ore Bindin<s# .tRs parti1)"ar"8
important to make this distin1tion 6e1a)se Tet"o1kRs ?ork is so <ood that a "ot oB 1ra1kpots ?i"" ?ant to hi<hFa1k it3 U,-perts are
s1ar1e"8 6etter than 1himpsC so ?h8 not <i:e inte""i<ent desi<n and prote1tionism eA)a" time?U 5)t ?hat Tet"o1k rea""8 sho?s is that
e-perts 1an raise their 1redi6i"it8 iB the8 stop o:errea1hin<#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
+1/68
1NC AT: RISK ASSESSMENT !AD 1/2
1ven i! o#"ective truth is impossi#le we can recogni@e the contingent utility o! ris$ assessment
'ven NNTerFeC 9# (ta:an<erC !o)ndations oB Risk na"8sis ;no?"ed<e and 2e1ision-4riented Perspe1ti:eC
http3//trainin<#ni<1#ir/Bi"es/Bi"es/6enZ20saeedZ206ookZ20hse/saBet8Z206ooks/s10#pdBOGX
7an8 so1ia" s1ientists ha:e 1riti1ized traditiona" en<ineerin< risk assessments# We mention 5e1k N1992OC 2o)<"as and Wi"da:sk8 N1982OC Perro?
N198*O and (hrader-!re1hette N1991O# The 1riti1a" point seems to 6e that the idea oB an o6Fe1ti:e risk 1annot 6e F)sticed# 11ordin< to ("o:i1
N1998OC risk does not e-ist o)t thereC independent oB o)r minds and 1)"t)res# We m)st take the Mnai:e positi:ist :ie?C to )se the termino"o<8 oB (hrader-
!re1hette N1991OC that risk e-ists o6Fe1ti:e"8 and 1an 6e meas)redC and rep"a1e it 68 a more 6a"an1ed :ie?# The ans?er is not the other e-treme '
the re"ati:ist :ie? sa8in< that s risk des1ription is as <ood as 5sC re<ard"ess their 6ases ' 6)t a midd"e positionC e-pressin< that Borma" risk assessments
pro:ide )seB)" inBormation to s)pport de1ision-makin<C 68 1om6inin< Ba1ts and F)d<ements )sin< s1ientic1 prin1ip"es and methods# 7ost
peop"eC ?e thinkC are in Ba:o)r oB s)1h a midd"e positionC see N(hrader-!re1hette 1991OC 6)t the 1ha""en<e is to esta6"ish a proper p"atBorm Bor it# The aim oB this 6ook is
part"8 to pro:ide one#
Their arguments !undamentally depend on ris$ analysis they "ust implicitly assume there(s no real ris$ to the plan #ecause
they thin$ pro#a#ility is low.
Camp#ell and Currie, 0K - 9ni:ersit8 oB $ottin<hamC 9; N(1ott and Gre<C J<ainst 5e1k3 .n 2eBen1e oB Risk na"8sisCK
Phi"osoph8 oB the (o1ia" (1ien1eC L)neOGX
The se1ond 1"aim is that some potentia" e:ents ha:e s)1h an enormo)s"8 hi<h "e:e" oB harm that their o:era"" risk s1ore ?i"" 6e :er8 hi<hC e:en iB the8 ha:e a "o?
pro6a6i"it8# That isC the ma<nit)de oB the harm is so hi<h that e:en the red)1tion eBBe1ted 68 the "o? pro6a6i"it8 does not 6rin< it 6a1k to saBe "e:e"s# 5)t as ?e ha:e
seenC there are man8 e:ents F)st as potentia""8 se:ere as the one 5e1k Bo1)ses onC 8et it is not p"a)si6"e to sa8 that the8 ha:e an e-treme"8 hi<h Nor e:en a moderate"8
hi<hO risk s1ore# There are on"8 t?o responses open to 5e1k here# @e 1an either 1"aim that these e:ents a"so ha:e an e-treme"8 hi<h risk s1oreI?hi1h is 1omp"ete"8
imp"a)si6"eI or he 1an a11ept that despite their eA)a""8 hi<h harm "e:e"C the8 dont present an8?here near the ma<nit)de oB risk that a
possi6"e n)1"ear e-p"osion presents# 5)t the on"8 ?a8 he 1o)"d ar<)e the "atter is on the <ro)nds that the n)1"ear e-p"osion is a "ot
more "ike"8 than these other e:ents# @o?e:erC this is to 1on1ede that pro6a6i"it8 is not a"?a8s o:er?he"med 68 a hi<h harm "e:e"C and
that it does matter# We sho)"d 6e ?orried a6o)t some e:ents that ha:e a hi<h harm "e:e"C 6)t not others that are eA)a""8 6adC 6e1a)se
oB the diBBerent pro6a6i"ities in:o":ed# This is a diBBerent matter than the ori<ina" 1omp"aint that 5e1k made a<ainst risk ana"8sisC tho)<hC ?hi1h ?as that risk
ana"8sis i<nores harm# .B 5e1k disa<rees ?ith risk ana"8sts a6o)t the risk ?e Ba1e Brom n)1"ear e-p"osions that ha:e a hi<h "e:e" oB harmC this 1an on"8 6e 6e1a)se he
thinks that the pro6a6i"it8 assi<ned to them 68 risk ana"8sts is too "o?# 28 Whether or not this it tr)eC it is not an o6Fe1tion to the theor8 oB risk
ana"8sisQ on the 1ontrar8C it ass)mes the theor8 oB risk ana"8sis in order to make a 1omp"aint a<ainst the pra1tise oB risk ana"8sis#
Cis$s must always #e evaluated ris$ analysis has always e.isted and should not #e solely con!ined to modern society
(in1e the ear"8 1990sC the German so1io"o<ist 9"ri1h 5e1k has dominated dis1)ssion oB risk iss)es in the so1ia" s1ien1es#
@is ?orkC ?hi1h Birst 1ame to attention in his 1992 6ook Risk (o1iet8C and then "ater in s)1h 6ooks as ,1o"o<i1a" Po"iti1s in an <e oB RiskC The Rein:ention oB
Po"iti1sC and most re1ent"8 Wor"d Risk (o1iet8C makes a n)m6er oB 1"aims a6o)t risk and its p"a1e in 1ontemporar8 so1iet8# .t is parti1)"ar"8 nota6"e Bor its no:e"
approa1h to the 1on1ept oB riskC and Bor its atta1k on the 1on1epts and pra1- ti1es oB risk ana"8sis# .t is these aspe1ts oB his ?ork ?e Bo1)s on here# We ar<)e that
5e1ks ?ork e-hi6its serio)s 1onB)sion a6o)t the 1on1ept oB risk and that his 1riti1isms oB risk ana"8sis are <ro)nd"ess# 5e1k ho"ds that
?e "i:e in a Jrisk so1iet8CK ?here ?e Ba1e ne? risks oB )npre1edented ma<nit)deC espe1ia""8 Brom n)1"ear po?er and to-i1 1hemi- 1a"s#
s a res)"tC se1)rit8 Brom risks is rep"a1in< s1ar1it8 as the most important iss)e oB o)r times# Risk ana"8sisC 5e1k thinksC is oB no he"pQ
in Ba1tC it 1an 6e 1onsidered to 6e a maFor 1a)se oB the pro6"ems# .n this paper ?e ?i"" sa8 "itt"e a6o)t 5e1ks ?ider :ie?sC as these are hard to dis1ern and ?i"" most
"ike"8 distra1t attention Brom the points ?e ?ant to make# We ?i"" 1on1entrate on some spe1iBi1 points that 5e1k makes a6o)t risk ana"8sis# We Bo1)s on those points
that ha:e 6een e-pressed ?ith s)BBi1ient 1"arit8 to merit ana"8sisQ those that are parti1)"ar"8 stron<Q those that 5e1k has e-pressed in n)mero)s p"a1esQ and those that
ha:e not 6een 1ha""en<ed 6eBore in an8 ri<oro)sC ana"8ti1 manner# We 6e<in ?ith a 6rieB statement oB ?hat risk is# &onsider an e:ent _ ?hi1h hasnt happenedC 6)t
mi<htC and ?hi1h iB it did ?o)"d 6e Nin some ?a8O 6adC either in itse"B or in its 1onseA)en1es# The 6adness oB s)1h an e:ent is 1a""edC :ario)s"8C a "ossC harmC or
dis)ti"it8# .B 8o) a1t in a ?a8C C that makes _ possi6"eC 8o) risk _ in doin< # The de<ree oB risk Brom _ is a B)n1tion oB t?o thin<s3 its pro6a6i"it8 and its harmC that isC
the de<ree oB 6adness# Risk ana"8sts t8pi1a""8 1a"1)"ate the de<ree oB risk 68 m)"tip"8in< the harm oB the 6ad e:ent ?ith its pro6a6i"it8
N?hi1h is e-pressed either as a per1enta<e orC more t8pi1a""8C as a de1ima" Bra1tionC i#e#C a n)m6er 6et?een 0 and 1O# Th)s t?o eA)ipro6a6"e o)t1omes ha:e diBBerent
risks iB the o11)rren1e oB the one ?o)"d 6e more )np"easant than the o11)rren1e oB the otherC and t?o eA)a""8 )np"easant o)t1omes 1onstit)te diBBerent "e:e"s oB risk iB
one is more pro6a6"e than the other# 5e1ks o?n )nderstandin< oB risk isC it t)rns o)tC A)ite diBBerent Brom this# ,ar"8 on in Risk (o1iet8C he deBines risk th)s3 JRisk ma8
6e deBined as a s8stemati1 ?a8 oB dea"in< ?ith hazards and inse1)rities introd)1ed 68 modernization itse"BK N1992C 21O# .t is hard to think oB a "ess adeA)ate deBi- nition3
risk is not a ?a8 oB dea"in< ?ith thin<s# !irst oB a""C risk has to 6e tho)<ht oB as somethin< that ?e dea" ?ithC or attempt to dea" ?ithQ
?e 1annot sa8 that risk itse"B is a ?a8 oB dea"in< ?ith somethin<# 5e1ks deBi- nition ?o)"d make it impossi6"e to askC J@o? are ?e respondin< to this
risk?K sin1e the response and the risk ?o)"d 6e the same thin<# (e1ond"8C risk sho)"d not 6e so deBined that it app"ies on"8 to risks asso1iated ?ith
MmodernizationC Bor there ?ere oB 1o)rse risks 6eBore ind)stria" so1iet8# $ota6"8C 5e1k is not 1onsistent in adoptin< this approa1h to the 1on1ept oB
risk# .mmediate"8 aBter <i:in< the deBinition F)st 1itedC he sa8sC JRisksC as opposed to o"der dan<ersC are 1onseA)en1es ?hi1h re"ate to the threatenin< Bor1e oB
modernization and to its <"o6a"ization oB do)6tK N1992C 21O# @ere risk is )nderstood to 6e the harmB)" e:ent itse"BC and not an8 ?a8 oB respondin< to it# $ote a"so that
5e1k here 1ontrasts risks ?ith Mo"der dan<ers#5)tC as indi1ated a6o:eC Mo"der dan<ers ?ere risks tooIit makes perBe1t sense to sa8C Bor e-amp"eC
that ones risk oB d8in< Brom to-ins is <reater no? than it ?as %00 8ears a<o#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
+2/68
1NC AT: RISK ASSESSMENT !AD 2/2
Cis$s must always #e evaluated ris$ analysis has always e.isted and should not #e solely con!ined to modern society
(in1e the ear"8 1990sC the German so1io"o<ist 9"ri1h 5e1k has dominated dis1)ssion oB risk iss)es in the so1ia" s1ien1es#
@is ?orkC ?hi1h Birst 1ame to attention in his 1992 6ook Risk (o1iet8C and then "ater in s)1h 6ooks as ,1o"o<i1a" Po"iti1s in an <e oB
RiskC The Rein:ention oB Po"iti1sC and most re1ent"8 Wor"d Risk (o1iet8C makes a n)m6er oB 1"aims a6o)t risk and its p"a1e in
1ontemporar8 so1iet8# .t is parti1)"ar"8 nota6"e Bor its no:e" approa1h to the 1on1ept oB riskC and Bor its atta1k on the 1on1epts and
pra1- ti1es oB risk ana"8sis# .t is these aspe1ts oB his ?ork ?e Bo1)s on here# We ar<)e that 5e1ks ?ork e-hi6its serio)s 1onB)sion
a6o)t the 1on1ept oB risk and that his 1riti1isms oB risk ana"8sis are <ro)nd"ess# 5e1k ho"ds that ?e "i:e in a Jrisk so1iet8CK ?here ?e
Ba1e ne? risks oB )npre1edented ma<nit)deC espe1ia""8 Brom n)1"ear po?er and to-i1 1hemi- 1a"s# s a res)"tC se1)rit8 Brom risks is
rep"a1in< s1ar1it8 as the most important iss)e oB o)r times# Risk ana"8sisC 5e1k thinksC is oB no he"pQ in Ba1tC it 1an 6e 1onsidered to 6e
a maFor 1a)se oB the pro6"ems# .n this paper ?e ?i"" sa8 "itt"e a6o)t 5e1ks ?ider :ie?sC as these are hard to dis1ern and ?i"" most
"ike"8 distra1t attention Brom the points ?e ?ant to make# We ?i"" 1on1entrate on some spe1iBi1 points that 5e1k makes a6o)t risk
ana"8sis# We Bo1)s on those points that ha:e 6een e-pressed ?ith s)BBi1ient 1"arit8 to merit ana"8sisQ those that are parti1)"ar"8 stron<Q
those that 5e1k has e-pressed in n)mero)s p"a1esQ and those that ha:e not 6een 1ha""en<ed 6eBore in an8 ri<oro)sC ana"8ti1 manner#
We 6e<in ?ith a 6rieB statement oB ?hat risk is# &onsider an e:ent _ ?hi1h hasnt happenedC 6)t mi<htC and ?hi1h iB it did ?o)"d 6e
Nin some ?a8O 6adC either in itse"B or in its 1onseA)en1es# The 6adness oB s)1h an e:ent is 1a""edC :ario)s"8C a "ossC harmC or dis)ti"it8#
.B 8o) a1t in a ?a8C C that makes _ possi6"eC 8o) risk _ in doin< # The de<ree oB risk Brom _ is a B)n1tion oB t?o thin<s3 its
pro6a6i"it8 and its harmC that isC the de<ree oB 6adness# Risk ana"8sts t8pi1a""8 1a"1)"ate the de<ree oB risk 68 m)"tip"8in< the harm oB
the 6ad e:ent ?ith its pro6a6i"it8 N?hi1h is e-pressed either as a per1enta<e orC more t8pi1a""8C as a de1ima" Bra1tionC i#e#C a n)m6er
6et?een 0 and 1O# Th)s t?o eA)ipro6a6"e o)t1omes ha:e diBBerent risks iB the o11)rren1e oB the one ?o)"d 6e more )np"easant than
the o11)rren1e oB the otherC and t?o eA)a""8 )np"easant o)t1omes 1onstit)te diBBerent "e:e"s oB risk iB one is more pro6a6"e than the
other# 5e1ks o?n )nderstandin< oB risk isC it t)rns o)tC A)ite diBBerent Brom this# ,ar"8 on in Risk (o1iet8C he deBines risk th)s3 JRisk
ma8 6e deBined as a s8stemati1 ?a8 oB dea"in< ?ith hazards and inse1)rities introd)1ed 68 modernization itse"BK N1992C 21O# .t is hard
to think oB a "ess adeA)ate deBi- nition3 risk is not a ?a8 oB dea"in< ?ith thin<s# !irst oB a""C risk has to 6e tho)<ht oB as somethin< that
?e dea" ?ithC or attempt to dea" ?ithQ ?e 1annot sa8 that risk itse"B is a ?a8 oB dea"in< ?ith somethin<# 5e1ks deBi- nition ?o)"d
make it impossi6"e to askC J@o? are ?e respondin< to this risk?K sin1e the response and the risk ?o)"d 6e the same thin<# (e1ond"8C
risk sho)"d not 6e so deBined that it app"ies on"8 to risks asso1iated ?ith MmodernizationC Bor there ?ere oB 1o)rse risks 6eBore
ind)stria" so1iet8# $ota6"8C 5e1k is not 1onsistent in adoptin< this approa1h to the 1on1ept oB risk# .mmediate"8 aBter <i:in< the
deBinition F)st 1itedC he sa8sC JRisksC as opposed to o"der dan<ersC are 1onseA)en1es ?hi1h re"ate to the threatenin< Bor1e oB
modernization and to its <"o6a"ization oB do)6tK N1992C 21O# @ere risk is )nderstood to 6e the harmB)" e:ent itse"BC and not an8 ?a8 oB
respondin< to it# $ote a"so that 5e1k here 1ontrasts risks ?ith Mo"der dan<ers#5)tC as indi1ated a6o:eC Mo"der dan<ers ?ere risks tooI
it makes perBe1t sense to sa8C Bor e-amp"eC that ones risk oB d8in< Brom to-ins is <reater no? than it ?as %00 8ears a<o#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
+%/68
1NC AT: PRO!A!ILIT" FRAMEWORK 1/2
*. Bigh magnitude impacts should come !irst despite low pro#a#ilitynuclear winter threatens humanityclimate change
doesn(t
0and#erg, )atheny and Cir$ovic, ,nders (and6er<C Lames 7artin Resear1h !e""o? at the !)t)re oB @)manit8 .nstit)te at 4-Bord 9ni:ersit8C
postdo1tora" resear1h assistant Bor the ,9 ,nhan1e proFe1tQ Lason G# 7athen8C Ph2 1andidate in @ea"th Po"i18 and 7ana<ement at Lohns @opkins 5"oom6er<
(1hoo" oB P)6"i1 @ea"thC spe1ia" 1ons)"tant to the &enter Bor 5iose1)rit8 at the 9ni:ersit8 oB Pitts6)r<h 7edi1a" &enter and 1o-Bo)nder oB $e? @ar:estC and
7i"an 7# dirko:ieC senior resear1h asso1iate at the stronomi1a" 46ser:ator8 oB 5e"<radeC assistant proBessor oB ph8si1s at the 9ni:ersit8 oB $o:i (ad in
(er6ia and 7ontene<roQ J@o? &an We Red)1e the Risk oB @)man ,-tin1tionK http3//the6)""etin#or</?e6-edition/Beat)res/ho?-1an-?e-red)1e-the-risk-oB-
h)man-e-tin1tion ((
The Ba1ts are so6erin<# 7ore than 99#9 per1ent oB spe1ies that ha:e e:er e-isted on ,arth ha:e <one e-tin1t# 4:er the "on< r)nC it
seems "ike"8 that h)manit8 ?i"" meet the same Bate# .n "ess than a 6i""ion 8earsC the in1reased intensit8 oB the ()n ?i"" initiate a ?et <reenho)se eBBe1tC e:en ?itho)t an8 h)man interBeren1eC
makin< ,arth inhospita6"e to "iBe# 1o)p"e oB 6i""ion 8ears "ater ,arth ?i"" 6e destro8edC ?hen itRs en<)"Bed 68 o)r ()n as it e-pands into a red-<iant star# .B ?e 1o"onize spa1eC ?e 1o)"d s)r:i:e "on<er than o)r p"anetC 6)t as
mamma"ian spe1ies s)r:i:eC on a:era<eC on"8 t?o mi""ion 8earsC ?e sho)"d 1onsider o)rse":es :er8 ")1k8 iB ?e make it to one 6i""ion# @)manit8 1o)"d 6e e-tin<)ished as ear"8 as this
1ent)r8 68 s)11)m6in< to nat)ra" hazardsC s)1h as an e-tin1tion-"e:e" asteroid or 1omet impa1tC s)per:o"1ani1 er)ptionC <"o6a"
methane-h8drate re"easeC or near68 s)perno:a or <amma-ra8 6)rst# NPerhaps the most pro6a6"e oB these hazardsC s)per:o"1anismC ?as
dis1o:ered on"8 in the "ast 2+ 8earsC s)<<estin< that other nat)ra" hazards ma8 remain )nre1o<nized#O !ort)nate"8 the pro#a#ility o!
any one o! these events $illing o!! our species is very low--less than one in *00 million per year, <i:en ?hat ?e kno? a6o)t their
past BreA)en18# 5)t as impro6a6"e as these e:ents areC meas)res to red)1e their pro6a6i"it8 1an sti"" 6e ?orth?hi"e# !or instan1eC
in:estments in asteroid dete1tion and deB"e1tion te1hno"o<ies 1ost "essC per "iBe sa:edC than most in:estments in medi1ine# Whi"e an
e-tin1tion-"e:e" asteroid impa1t is :er8 )n"ike"8C its impro6a6i"it8 is o)t?ei<hed 68 its potentia" death to""# The risks Brom
anthropo<eni1 hazards appear at present "ar<er than those Brom nat)ra" ones# "tho)<h <reat pro<ress has 6een made in red)1in< the
n)m6er oB n)1"ear ?eapons in the ?or"dC h)manit8 is sti"" threatened 68 the possi6i"it8 oB a <"o6a" thermon)1"ear ?ar and a res)"tin<
n)1"ear ?inter# We ma8 Ba1e e:en <reater risks Brom emer<in< te1hno"o<ies# d:an1es in s8ntheti1 6io"o<8 mi<ht make it possi6"e to
en<ineer patho<ens 1apa6"e oB e-tin1tion-"e:e" pandemi1s# The kno?"ed<eC eA)ipmentC and materia"s needed to en<ineer patho<ens are more a11essi6"e than those needed to 6)i"d n)1"ear ?eapons#
nd )n"ike other ?eaponsC patho<ens are se"B-rep"i1atin<C a""o?in< a sma"" arsena" to 6e1ome e-ponentia""8 destr)1ti:e# Patho<ens ha:e 6een imp"i1ated in the e-tin1tions oB man8 ?i"d spe1ies# "tho)<h most pandemi1s
UBade o)tU 68 red)1in< the densit8 oB s)s1epti6"e pop)"ationsC patho<ens ?ith ?ide host ran<es in m)"tip"e spe1ies 1an rea1h e:en iso"ated indi:id)a"s# The intentiona" or )nintentiona" re"ease oB en<ineered patho<ens ?ith
hi<h transmissi6i"it8C "aten18C and "etha"it8 mi<ht 6e 1apa6"e oB 1a)sin< h)man e-tin1tion# Whi"e s)1h an e:ent seems )n"ike"8 toda8C the "ike"ihood ma8 in1rease as 6iote1hno"o<ies 1ontin)e to impro:e at a rate ri:a"in<
7ooreRs La?# !arther o)t in time are te1hno"o<ies that remain theoreti1a" 6)t mi<ht 6e de:e"oped this 1ent)r8# 7o"e1)"ar nanote1hno"o<8 1o)"d a""o? the 1reation oB se"B-
rep"i1atin< ma1hines 1apa6"e oB destro8in< the e1os8stem# nd ad:an1es in ne)ros1ien1e and 1omp)tation mi<ht ena6"e
impro:ements in 1o<nition that a11e"erate the in:ention oB ne? ?eapons# s)r:e8 at the 4-Bord 1onBeren1e Bo)nd that 1on1erns a6o)t
h)man e-tin1tion ?ere dominated 68 Bears that ne? te1hno"o<ies ?o)"d 6e mis)sed# These emer<in< threats are espe1ia""8 1ha""en<in<
as the8 1o)"d 6e1ome dan<ero)s more A)i1k"8 than past te1hno"o<iesC o)tpa1in< so1iet8Rs a6i"it8 to 1ontro" them# s @#G# We""s
notedC U@)man histor8 6e1omes more and more a ra1e 6et?een ed)1ation and 1atastrophe#U ()1h remote risks ma8 seem a1ademi1 in
a ?or"d p"a<)ed 68 immediate pro6"emsC s)1h as <"o6a" po:ert8C @.PC and 1"imate 1han<e# 5)t as intimidatin< as these pro6"ems areC
the8 do not threaten h)man e-isten1e# .n dis1)ssin< the risk oB n)1"ear ?interC &ar" (a<an emphasized the astronomi1a" to"" oB h)man
e-tin1tion3 n)1"ear ?ar imperi"s a"" oB o)r des1endantsC Bor as "on< as there ?i"" 6e h)mans# ,:en iB the pop)"ation remains stati1C
?ith an a:era<e "iBetime oB the order oB 100 8earsC o:er a t8pi1a" time period Bor the 6io"o<i1a" e:o")tion oB a s)11essB)" spe1ies
Nro)<h"8 ten mi""ion 8earsOC ?e are ta"kin< a6o)t some +00 tri""ion peop"e 8et to 1ome# 58 this 1riterionC the stakes are one mi""ion
times <reater Bor e-tin1tion than Bor the more modest n)1"ear ?ars that ki"" Uon"8U h)ndreds oB mi""ions oB peop"e# There are man8 other possi6"e
meas)res oB the potentia" "oss--in1")din< 1)"t)re and s1ien1eC the e:o")tionar8 histor8 oB the p"anetC and the si<niBi1an1e oB the "i:es oB a"" oB o)r an1estors ?ho 1ontri6)ted to the B)t)re oB their des1endants# ,-tin1tion is the
)ndoin< oB the h)man enterprise# There is a dis1ontin)it8 6et?een risks that threaten 10 per1ent or e:en 99 per1ent oB h)manit8 and those that threaten 100 per1ent# !or disasters ki""in< "ess than a""
h)manit8C there is a <ood 1han1e that the spe1ies 1o)"d re1o:er# .B ?e :a")e B)t)re h)man <enerationsC then red)1in< e-tin1tion risks
sho)"d dominate o)r 1onsiderations# !ort)nate"8C most meas)res to red)1e these risks a"so impro:e <"o6a" se1)rit8 a<ainst a ran<e oB "esser 1atastrophesC and th)s deser:e s)pport re<ard"ess oB ho?
m)1h one ?orries a6o)t e-tin1tion# These meas)res in1")de3 Remo:in< n)1"ear ?eapons Brom hair-tri<<er a"ert and B)rther red)1in< their n)m6ersQ P"a1in< saBe<)ards on <ene s8nthesis eA)ipment to pre:ent s8nthesis oB
se"e1t patho<ensQ .mpro:in< o)r a6i"it8 to respond to inBe1tio)s diseasesC in1")din< rapid disease s)r:ei""an1eC dia<nosisC and 1ontro"C as ?e"" as a11e"erated dr)< de:e"opmentQ !)ndin< resear1h on asteroid dete1tion and
deB"e1tionC Uhot spotU er)ptionsC methane h8drate depositsC and other 1atastrophi1 nat)ra" hazardsQ 7onitorin< de:e"opments in ke8 disr)pti:e te1hno"o<iesC s)1h as nanote1hno"o<8 and 1omp)tationa" ne)ros1ien1eC and
de:e"opin< internationa" po"i1ies to red)1e the risk oB 1atastrophi1 a11idents#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
+*/68
1NC AT: PRO!A!ILIT" FRAMEWORK 1/2
2. The low pro#a#ility o! an impact shouldn(t prevent us !rom preparing !or catastrophethe ris$ o! high magnitude impacts
necessitates action
Dosner, 3IRi1hardC The Pro6a6i"it8 oB &atastrophe# Ri1hard # Posner# Wa"" (treet Lo)rna"# N,astern editionO# $e? EorkC $#E#3 Lan
*C 200+# p<# #12# ProA)est 2ata6ases# ((
The Ba1t that a 1atastrophe is :er8 )n"ike"8 to o11)r is not a rationa" F)stiBi1ation Bor i<norin< the risk oB its o11)rren1e# ()ppose that a
ts)nami as destr)1ti:e as the one in the .ndian 41ean o11)rs on a:era<e on1e a 1ent)r8 and ki""s 1+0C000 peop"e# That is an a:era<e oB
1C+00 deaths per 8ear# Witho)t ha:in< to attempt a sophisti1ated estimate oB the :a")e oB "iBe to the peop"e e-posed to the riskC one can
say with some con!idence that i! an annual death toll o! *,300 could #e su#stantially reduced at moderate cost, the investment
would #e worthwhile. 1om6ination oB ed)1atin< the residents oB "o?-"8in< 1oasta" areas a6o)t the ?arnin< si<ns oB a ts)nami Ntremors and a s)dden re1ession in the o1eanOC
esta6"ishin< a ?arnin< s8stem in:o":in< emer<en18 6road1astsC te"ephoned ?arnin<sC and air-raid-t8pe sirensC and impro:in< emer<en18 response s8stemsC ?o)"d ha:e sa:ed man8 oB the
peop"e ki""ed 68 the .ndian 41ean ts)namiC pro6a6"8 at a tota" 1ost 6e"o? an8 reasona6"e estimate oB the a:era<e "osses that 1an 6e e-pe1ted Brom ts)namis# Re"o1atin< peop"e a?a8 Brom 1oasts
?o)"d 6e e:en more eBBi1a1io)sC 6)t e-1ept in the most :)"nera6"e areas or in areas in ?hi1h residentia" or 1ommer1ia" )ses ha:e on"8 mar<ina" :a")eC the 1osts ?o)"d pro6a6"8 e-1eed the
6eneBits# !or ann)a" 1osts oB prote1tion m)st 6e mat1hed ?ith ann)a"C not tota"C e-pe1ted 1osts oB ts)namis# Wh8 ?erenRt an8 1ost-F)stiBied pre1a)tionar8 meas)res taken in anti1ipation oB a
ts)nami on the s1a"e that o11)rred? Ts)namis are a 1ommon 1onseA)en1e oB earthA)akesC ?hi1h themse":es are 1ommonQ and ts)namis 1an ha:e other 1a)ses 6esides earthA)akes -- a maFor
asteroid strike in an o1ean ?o)"d 1reate a ts)nami that ?o)"d d?arB the .ndian 41ean one# There are a n)m6er oB reasons Bor s)1h ne<"e1t# !irstC a"tho)<h a on1e-in-a-1ent)r8
e:ent is as "ike"8 to o11)r at the 6e<innin< oB the 1ent)r8 as at an8 other timeC it is m)1h "ess "ike"8 to o11)r in the Birst de1ade oB the
1ent)r8 than "ater# Po"iti1ians ?ith "imited terms oB oBBi1e and th)s Boreshortened po"iti1a" horizons are "ike"8 to dis1o)nt "o?-risk
disaster possi6i"itiesC sin1e the risk oB dama<e to their 1areers Brom Bai"in< to take pre1a)tionar8 meas)res is tr)n1ated# (e1ondC to the e-tent that eBBe1ti:e pre1a)tions reA)ire
<o:ernmenta" a1tionC the Ba1t that <o:ernment is a 1entra"ized s8stem oB 1ontro" makes it diBBi1)"t Bor oBBi1ia"s to respond to the B)"" spe1tr)m oB possi6"e risks a<ainst ?hi1h 1ost-F)stiBied
meas)res mi<ht 6e taken# The oBBi1ia"sC <i:en the :ariet8 oB matters to ?hi1h the8 m)st attendC are "ike"8 to ha:e a hi<h thresho"d oB attention 6e"o? ?hi1h risks are simp"8 i<nored# ThirdC
?here risks are re<iona" or <"o6a" rather than "o1a"C man8 nationa" <o:ernmentsC espe1ia""8 in the poorer and sma""er 1o)ntriesC ma8 dra< their hee"s in the hope oB takin< a Bree ride on the
"ar<er and ri1her 1o)ntries# ;no?in< thisC the "atter 1o)ntries ma8 6e re")1tant to take pre1a)tionar8 meas)res and 68 doin< so re?ard and th)s en1o)ra<e Bree ridin<# !o)rthC 1o)ntries are poor
oBten 6e1a)se oB ?eakC ineBBi1ientC or 1orr)pt <o:ernmentC 1hara1teristi1s that ma8 disa6"e poor nations Brom takin< 1ost-F)stiBied pre1a)tions# !iBthC peop"e ha:e diBBi1)"t8
thinkin< in terms oB pro6a6i"itiesC espe1ia""8 :er8 "o? pro6a6i"itiesC ?hi1h the8 tend thereBore to ?rite oBB# This ?eakens po"iti1a" s)pport Bor
in1)rrin< the 1osts oB takin< pre1a)tionar8 meas)res a<ainst "o?- pro6a6i"it8 disasters# The operation oB some oB these Ba1tors is i"")strated 68 the reB)sa" oB the Pa1iBi1 nationsC ?hi1h do ha:e a
ts)nami ?arnin< s8stemC to e-tend their s8stem to the .ndian 41ean prior to the re1ent 1atastrophe# Ts)namis are more 1ommon in the Pa1iBi1C and most oB the Pa1iBi1 nations do not a6)t on the
.ndian 41ean# n e:en more dramati1 e-amp"e 1on1erns the asteroid mena1eC ?hi1h is ana"8ti1a""8 simi"ar to the mena1e oB ts)namis# $(C ?ith an ann)a" 6)d<et oB more than f10 6i""ionC
spends on"8 f* mi""ion a 8ear on mappin< dan<ero)s"8 1"ose "ar<e asteroidsC and at that rate ma8 not 1omp"ete the task Bor another de1adeC e:en tho)<h s)1h mappin< is the ke8 to an asteroid
deBense 6e1a)se it ma8 <i:e )s 8ears oB ?arnin<# 2eB"e1tin< an asteroid Brom its or6it ?hen it is sti"" mi""ions oB mi"es Brom the earth is a Beasi6"e )ndertakin<# .n 6oth 1asesC s"i<ht risks oB
terri6"e disasters are "ar<e"8 i<nored essentia""8 Bor po"iti1a" reasons# .n part 6e1a)se ts)namis are one oB the risks oB an asteroid 1o""isionC the .ndian 41ean disaster has stim)"ated ne? interest
in asteroid deBense# This is ?e"1ome. The !act that a disaster o! a particular type has not occurred recently or even within human memory
Hor even everO is a #ad reason to ignore it. The ris$ may #e slight, #ut i! the conse>uences, sho)"d it materia"izeC are great
enough, the e.pected cost o! disaster may #e su!!icient to warrant de!ensive measures#
. 1.pected value is calculated #y magnitude multiplied #y pro#a#ility a catastrophic ris$ should #e evaluated #ecause even
the smallest pro#a#ility multiplied #y an in!inite impact warrants prevention e!!orts
8iener 3 NLonathan 5#C Perkins ProBessor oB La?C ,n:ironmenta" Po"i18C and P)6"i1 Po"i18 at 2)ke 9ni:ersit8C and a 9ni:ersit8
!e""o? oB Reso)r1es Bor the !)t)reC J5ook Re:ie?3 &atastrophe3 Risk and ResponseQ &o""apse3 @o? so1ieties 1hoose to Bai" or
s)11eedKC Lo)rna" oB P)6"i1 na"8sis and 7ana<ementC )t)mnC Po")me 2*C .ss)e *C pp# 88+-9OGX
7oreo:erC there are at "east t?o maFor A)estions a6o)t the remedies Bor risks oB 1atastrophe and 1o""apse# The Birst is ho? to
prioritize amon< the ?ide arra8 oB potentia" end-oB-the-?or"d s1enarios# The n)m6er and di:ersit8 oB s)1h doomsda8 Bore1asts in the
"iterat)re is 6ra1in<C as e:iden1ed 68 Posners o?n e-tensi:e s)r:e8C 7artin Reess 4)r !ina" @o)r N200%OC Lohn Les"ies The ,nd oB
the Wor"d N1996OC and &ore8 Po?e""s arti1"e J20 Wa8s the Wor"d &o)"d ,ndK in 2is1o:er ma<azine N41to- 6er 2000OC as ?e"" as
prior retrospe1ti:e st)dies 1ited 68 2iamond s)1h as Loseph Tainters The &o""apse oB &omp"e- (o1ieties N1988O# The "o?er the
pro6a6i"it8 oB 1atastrophe that one is ?i""in< to 1onsiderC the <reater the n)m6er oB 1on1ei:a6"e 1atastrophes# .ndeedC as the
pro6a6i"it8 as8mptoti1a""8 approa1hes zeroC the n)m- 6er oB ima<ina6"e s1enarios approa1hes inBinit8# nd iB the end oB a"" "iBe on
,arth is :a")ed at inBinit8C rather than at f600 tri""ionC then the e-pe1ted :a")e oB the 1at- astrophi1 risk is an inBinitesima" pro6a6i"it8
m)"tip"ied 68 an inBinite impa1t# These 1on)ndr)ms make priorit8-settin< near"8 impossi6"e# ttemptin< to sort o)t ?hi1h are Jrea"K or
Jp"a)si6"eK risks Nremem6er the E2; 1omp)ter disaster?O 1an re1apit- )"ate the error that Posner seeks to a:oidC oB ne<"e1tin< "o?-
pro6a6i"it8 risks# t the same timeC Posner ?orries that 1r8in< ?o"BIBa"se positi:esI")"" the p)6"i1 into inattention# 2iamond
ar<)es that ?e m)st to"erate some Ba"se a"arms in order to ha:e ?arnin< s8stems sensiti:e eno)<h to iss)e tr)e a"armsQ zero
Ba"se a"arms ?o)"d imp"8 the Bai")re to iss)e some tr)e a"arms# @is 1a"1)")s oB optima" a"arm a11)ra18 is :er8 simi"ar to Posners
5&# ,- anteC the rea" A)estion is not ?hether the risk is Jrea"K or Jtr)eCK 6)t ?hether the e-pe1ted :a")e oB the "o? N6)t non-zeroO
pro6a6i"it8 m)"tip"ied 68 the 1atastrophi1 impa1t N?ith a premi)m Bor risk a:er- sionO F)stiBies some 1ost oB pre:ention#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
++/68
EXT %1 HIGH MAGNITUDE FIRST
9ational leaders must address large impacts no matter how small the pro#a#ility is
Peter =eihan, e-pert on internationa" re"ations and siang Po"iti1sC Pi1e President oB <"o6a" ana"8sis Bor (tratBor pri" 2%C 200,
Fear is a power!ul motivatorC even getting results when the threat is e.ceedingly remote # .t makes )s 1ross at 1ross?a"ks e:en
?hen traBBi1 is thinC pa8 more o:er time Bor Bire ins)ran1e than o)r homes are ?orthC and sh8 a?a8 Brom snakes e:en ?hen si<ns
1"ear"8 inBorm )s the8 are not poisono)s# @)mans instin1ti:e"8 take steps to pre:ent ne<ati:e o)t1omesC oBtentimes re<ard"ess oB ho?
"ike"8 I or more to the pointC )n"ike"8 I those )np"easant o)t1omes are#
's with individuals, the same is true !or countries. 'nyone can #lithely say &)6a or 0er#ia would not dare
ignore the will o! their more power!ul neigh#ors C or that 5razi"s or 1gypt(s nuclear programs are so inconse>uential as not to
impa1t the internationa" 6a"an1e oB po?er. :ut such opinions even i! they truly are near-certainties cannot
!orm the !oundation o! state power # 9ational leaders do not have the
lu.ury o! ignoring the plethora o! coulds, mights and may#es that pepper their radar screens every day. n ana"8st 1an dismiss
a dark possi6i"it8 as d)6io)sC 6)t a national leader cannot gam#le with the lives o! his countrymen and the e.istence o! his state.
They must evaluate even impro#a#le threats against the potential damage to their respective national interests.
9uclear war and e.tinction outweighs all impacts a !raction o! in!inity is still in!inity
Lonathan 0chellC !ate oB the ,arthC pp# 9%-96 19,2
4n the other handC i! we wish to ignore the peril, we have to admit that we do so in the $nowledge that the species may #e in
danger o! imminent sel!-destruction# When the e-isten1e oB n)1"ear ?eapons ?as made kno?nC tho)<htB)" peop"e e:er8?here in the
?or"d rea"ized that iB the <reat po?ers entered into a n)1"ear-arms ra1e the h)man spe1ies ?o)"d sooner or "ater Ba1e the possi6i"it8 oB
e-tin1tion# The8 a"so rea"ized that in the a6sen1e oB internationa" a<reements pre:entin< it an arms ra1e ?o)"d pro6a6"8 o11)r# The8
kne? that the path oB n)1"ear armament ?as a dead end Bor mankind# The dis1o:er8 oB the ener<8 in mass ' oB Uthe 6asi1 po?er oB the
)ni:erseU ' and oB a means 68 ?hi1h man 1o)"d re"ease that ener<8 a"tered the re"ationship 6et?een man and the so)r1e oB his "iBeC the
earth# .n the shado? oB this po?erC the earth 6e1ame sma"" and the "iBe oB the h)man spe1ies do)6tB)"# .n that senseC the A)estion oB
h)man e-tin1tion has 6een on the po"iti1a" a<enda oB the ?or"d e:er sin1e the Birst n)1"ear ?eapon ?as detonatedC and there ?as no
need Bor the ?or"d to 6)i"d )p its present tremendo)s arsena"s 6eBore startin< to ?orr8 a6o)t it# t F)st ?hat point the spe1ies 1rossedC
or ?i"" ha:e 1rossedC the 6o)ndar8 6et?een mere"8 ha:in< the te1hni1a" kno?"ed<e to destro8 itse"B and a1t)a""8 ha:in< the arsena"s at
handC read8 to 6e )sed at an8 se1ondC is not pre1ise"8 kno?a6"e# 5)t it is 1"ear that at presentC ?ith some t?ent8 tho)sand me<atons oB
n)1"ear e-p"osi:e po?er in e-isten1eC and ?ith more 6ein< added e:er8 da8C ?e ha:e entered into the zone oB )n1ertaint8C ?hi1h is to
sa8 the zone oB risk oB e-tin1tion# 5)t the mere ris$ o! e.tinction has a signi!icance that is categorically di!!erent !rom, and
immeasura#ly greater than that o! any other ris$ and as we ma$e our decisions we have to ta$e that signi!icance into
account. 9p to no?C e:er8 risk has 6een 1ontained ?ithin the Brame?ork oB "iBeQ e-tin1tion ?o)"d shatter the Brame. It represents not
the de!eat o! some purpose #ut an a#yss in which all human purpose would #e drowned !or all time. We ha:e no ri<ht to p"a1e
the possi6i"it8 oB this "imit"essC eterna" deBeat on the same Bootin< as risk that ?e r)n in the ordinar8 1ond)1t oB o)r aBBairs in o)r
parti1)"ar transient moment oB h)man histor8# To emp"o8 a mathemati1ianRs ana"o<8C ?e 1an sa8 that although the ris$ o! e.tinction
may #e !ractional, the sta$e is, humanly spea$ing, in!inite, and a !raction o! in!inity is still in!inity. .n other ?ordsC once we
learn that a holocaust might lead to e.tinction we have no right to gam#le, #ecause i! we lose, the game will #e over, and
neither we nor anyone else will ever get another chance. ThereBoreC a"tho)<hC s1ientiBi1a""8 speakin<C there is a"" the diBBeren1e in
the ?or"d 6et?een the mere possi6i"it8 that a ho"o1a)st ?i"" 6rin< a6o)t e-tin1tion and the 1ertaint8 oB itC mora""8 the8 are the sameC
and we have no choice #ut to address the issue o! nuclear weapons as though we $new !or a certainty that their use would put
an end to our species. .n ?ei<hin< the Bate oB the earth andC ?ith itC o)r o?n BateC ?e stand 6eBore a m8ster8C and in tamperin< ?ith
the earth ?e tamper ?ith a m8ster8# We are in deep i<noran1e# 4)r i<noran1e sho)"d dispose )s to ?onderC o)r ?onder sho)"d make
)s h)m6"eC o)r h)mi"it8 sho)"d inspire )s to re:eren1e and 1a)tionC and o)r re:eren1e and 1a)tion sho)"d "ead )s to a1t ?itho)t de"a8
to ?ithdra? the threat ?e no? post to the ?or"d and to o)rse":es#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
+6/68
EXT %2 LOW PRO!A!ILIT" DOESNT MEAN NO RISK
Eow pro#a#ility is not a reason to re"ect our impacts. True policy ma$ers must evaluate magnitude. 8e have an o#ligation to
consider !uture generations.
0unstein 4M N&ass R# !e"i- !rankB)rter ProBessor oB La? at @ar:ard La? (1hoo"# &"erked Bor L)sti1e Th)r<ood 7arsha"" oB the 9#(#
()preme &o)rtQ UWorst-&ase (1enariosU @ar:ard 9ni:ersit8 Press 2000 pg.*,-+O QQ)A
&atastrophi1 @arm Pre1a)tionar8 Prin1ip"eC oB the modest kind F)st sket1hedC raises se:era" A)estions# The most o6:io)s is ?hether
a "o?-pro6a6i"it8 risk oB 1atastrophe mi<ht not deser:e more attention than hi<her-pro6a6i"it8 risksC e:en ?hen the e-pe1ted :a")e
appears to 6e eA)a"# The reason is that the "oss oB 200 mi""ion peop"e ma8 6e more than 1C000 times ?orse than the "oss oB 2C000
peop"e# Pa)se o:er the rea"-?or"d meanin< oB a "oss oB 200 mi""ion peop"e in the 9nited (tates# The nation ?o)"d Bind it e-treme"8
hard to re1o:er# Pri:ate and p)6"i1 instit)tions ?o)"d 6e dama<ed Bor a "on< timeC perhaps Bore:er# 8hat $ind o! government would
emergeL 8hat would its economy loo$ li$eL Future generations would inevita#ly su!!er. The eBBe1t oB a 1atastrophe <reat"8
o)tr)ns a simp"e m)"tip"i1ation oB a 1ertain n)m6er oB "i:es "ost# The o:era"" U1ostU oB "osin< t?o-thirds oB the meri1an pop)"ation is
Bar more than 100C000 times the 1ost oB "osin< 2C000 peop"e# The same point ho"ds ?hen the n)m6ers are sma""er# !o""o?in< the
1o""apse oB a dam that "eBt 120 peop"e dead and *C000 home"ess in 5)BBa"o &reekC Pir<iniaC ps81hiatri1 resear1hers 1ontin)ed to Bind
si<niBi1ant ps81ho"o<i1a" and so1io"o<i1a" 1han<es t?o 8ears aBter the disaster o11)rred# ()r:i:ors sti"" s)BBered a "oss oB dire1tion and
ener<8C a"on< ?ith other disa6"in< 1hara1ter 1han<es#*1 4ne e:a")ator attri6)ted this U5)BBa"o &reek (8ndromeU spe1iBi1a""8 to Uthe
"oss oB traditiona" 6onds oB kinship and nei<h6or"iness#U*2 Gen)ine 1atastrophesC in:o":in< tens oB tho)sands or mi""ions oB deathsC
?o)"d ma<niB8 that "oss to an )nima<ina6"e de<ree# detai"ed "iterat)re on the Uso1ia" amp"iBi1ation oB riskU e-p"ores the se1ondar8
so1ia" "osses that <reat"8 o)tr)n the initia" eBBe1ts oB <i:en e:ents#*% The harm done 68 the atta1ks oB 9/11C Bor instan1eC Bar e-1eeded
the deaths on that da8C horrendo)s as those ?ere# 4ne te""in< e-amp"e3 7an8 peop"e s?it1hedC in the aBtermath oB the atta1kC to dri:in<
"on< distan1es rather than B"8in<C and the s?it1h prod)1ed a"most as man8 hi<h?a8 deaths as the atta1ks themse":esC simp"8 6e1a)se
dri:in< is more dan<ero)s than B"8in<#** The atta1ks had h)<e eBBe1ts on other 6eha:iors oB indi:id)a"sC 6)sinessesC and <o:ernmentsC
res)"tin< in 1osts oB h)ndreds oB 6i""ions oB do""arsC a"on< ?ith 1ontin)in< BearC an-iet8C and man8 tho)sands oB additiona" deaths Brom
the B<hanistan and .raA ?ars# We mi<ht thereBore identiB8 a se1ond :ersion oB the &atastrophi1 @arm Pre1a)tionar8 Prin1ip"eC a"so
att)ned to e-pe1ted :a")e 6)t emphasizin< some Beat)res oB 1atastrophi1 risk that mi<ht other?ise 6e ne<"e1tedI Cegulators should
consider the e.pected value o! catastrophic ris$s, even when the worst-case scenario is highly unli$ely. .n assessin< e-pe1ted
:a")eC re<)"ators should consider the distinctive !eatures o! catastrophic harm, including the <social ampli!ication& o! such
harm. Re<)"ators sho)"d 1hoose 1ost-eBBe1ti:e meas)res to red)1e those risks and sho)"d attempt to 1ompare the e-pe1ted :a")e oB
the risk ?ith the e-pe1ted :a")e oB pre1a)tionar8 meas)res#
1ven i! the pro#a#ility o! a catastrophe is low or un$nown, we must respond
Dosner 02 NRi1hard #C L)d<e on 9( &o)rt oB ppea"s Bor the 0
th
1ir1)itC &atastrophe3 Risk and ResponseC 200*C p<# +-6O55
$one oB these disasters N?hi1h a"on< ?ith a n)m6er oB others Borm the s)6Fe1t matter oB 1hapter 1O is 1ertain to o11)r# 5)t an8 oB them mi<htC ?ith more than tri:ia" pro6a6i"it8# The
1atastrophi1 asteroid strike and the a6r)pt 1"imate spira"s are part oB the earthRs prehistor8# The8 ha:e happened 6eBoreQ the8 1o)"d happen a<ain# (ho)"d either oB the other t?o
me<a1atastrophes sket1hed a6o:e o11)r-the ?or"d-endin< "a6 a11ident or the de:astatin< 6ioterrorist atta1k-it ?o)"d 6e an e-amp"e oB modern te1hno"o<8 r)n amok# (o mi<ht 6e
a6r)pt <"o6a" ?armin<C and not F)st 6e1a)se interna" 1om6)stion en<ines and e"e1tri1a" <eneration are prod)1ts oB te1hno"o<8Q te1hno"o<8 aBBe1ts the 1"imate indire1t"8 as ?e"" as
dire1t"8 68 its positi:e eBBe1ts on the <ro?th oB the e1onom8 and oB ?or"d pop)"ation# 5oth are Ba1tors in <"o6a" ?armin< and in another oB the 1atastrophe s1enarios as ?e""-a
pre1ipito)s and irre:ersi6"e "oss oB 6iodi:ersit8# "" these disasters and more ?o)"d 6e 1atastrophes in the sense the ?ord 6ears ?hen )sed to
desi<nate an e:ent that is 6e"ie:ed to ha:e a :er8 "o? pro6a6i"it8 oB materia"izin< 6)t that iB it does materia"ize ?i"" prod)1e a
harm so <reat and s)dden as to seem dis1ontin)o)s ?ith the B"o? oB e:ents that pre1eded it# The "o? pro6a6i"it8 oB s)1h
disasters BreA)ent"8 the unknown pro6a6i"it8C as in the 1ase oB 6ioterrorism and a6r)pt <"o6a" ?armin<-is amon< the thin<s that
6aBB"e eBBorts at re spondin< rationa""8 to them# 5)t respond ?e m)st Q at "east ?e m)st 1onsider serio)s"8 ?hether to respondQ Bor these e:ents
1an happenC and an8 oB them ?o)"d 6e 1atastrophi1 in the sense oB 1ata1"8smi1 rather than the mi"der sense in ?hi1h a h)rri1ane or
earthA)ake mi<ht 6e termed U1atastrophi1UH 6e1a)se its )ne-pe1ted se:erit8 1a)sed "ar<e "osses to propert8 o?ners and ins)ran1e 1ompanies#

4ne deBinition oB
U1atastropheU <i:en 68 Websters Third !ew "nternational #ictionary is Ua momento)s tra<i1 )s)a""8 s)dden e:ent marked 68 eBBe1ts ran<in< Brom e-treme misBort)ne to )tter
o:erthro? or r)in#U &on1entrate on the top oB the ran<e NU)tter o:erthro? or r)inUO and 8o) ?i"" ha:e a <ood <rasp oB ho? . )se the ?ord in this 6ook#
;iscounting low-pro#a#ilty scenarios is highly conservative - it devalues lives in calculations o! e.tinction-level events.
Dosner 02 NRi1hard #C L)d<e on 9( &o)rt oB ppea"s Bor the 0
th
1ir1)itC &atastrophe3 Risk and ResponseC 200*C p<# 100-1O
55
Gi:en s)1h parado-esC it is temptin< to a11ept that the :a")e oB "iBe estimated at pro6a6i"ities oB death 6et?een 1 in 10C000 and 1 in
100C000 is a prett8 <ood estimate Bor the :a")e at pro6a6i"ities oB 1 in a mi""ion or 1 in 10 mi""ion Na"tho)<h not Bor pro6a6i"ities
oB 1 in 2 or e:en 1 in 20O# This ?o)"d Fa1k )p the 1ost asso1iated ?ith 1atastrophes <reat"8 and 68 doin< so stren<then the ar<)ment that ?e o)<ht to 6e
doin< more a6o)t them than ?e are doin<# 5)t Bor m8 p)rposes the ap proa1h that 8ie"ds a pre1ipitate drop in the :a")e oB "iBe at
e-treme"8 "o? proha6i"ities oB death has the :irt)e oB 6ein< hi<h"8 1onser:ati:eC so that iB ?e Bind Nas . sha"" ar<)e ?e sho)"dO
that ?e are not spend in< eno)<h on 1atastrophi1-risk pre:ention e:en iB the 1ost oB the ?orst 1atastrophes is as modest as the
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
+0/68
approa1h imp"iesC this sho)"d 6e a ro 6)st Bindin< # (ti""C the 6readth oB the ran<e oB deBensi6"e estimates oB the :a")es oB "iBe at stake in 1atastrophi1
e:ents is nota6"e and dist)r6in< and indi1ates an )r<ent need Bor B)rther resear1h#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
+8/68
EXT %' MAGNITUDE TIMES PRO!A!ILIT"
)agnitude times pro#a#ility solves their ris$ arguments
Phi"osoph8 oB the (o1ia" (1ien1eC L)neO ((
5e1k has another ar<)ment a<ainst risk ana"8sis# .t is that saBet8 assessments 6ased on pro6a6i"it8 i<nore the harm oB a risk# @e sa8sC !or "ar<e se<ments oB the pop)"ation and Bor opponents oB
n)1"ear ener<8C its 1atastrophi1 potentia" is 1entra"# $o matter ho? sma"" an a11ident pro6a6i"it8 is he"dC it is too "ar<e ?hen one a11ident means annihi"ation# 5)t the A)an- tiBia6"e 1on1epts oB
risk mana<ement 1on1entrate on the pro6a6"e o11)rren1e oB an a11ident and den8 the diBBeren1eC "et )s sa8C 6et?een a "imited air1raBt 1rash and the e-p"osion oB an atomi1 p"antC impro6a6"e as
it mi<ht 6eC ?hi1h aBBe1ts nations and <enerations not 8et 6orn# N1992C 29-%0O This is 8et another misrepresentation oB risk ana"8sis# s ?e ha:e pointed o)tC risk ana"8sts 1a"1)"ate
risk as harm m)"tip"ied 68 pro6a6i"it8# @en1eC iB a J"imitedK Ni#e#C non1atastrophi1O air1raBt 1rash and a 1atastrophi1 e-p"osion at a
n)1"ear p"ant ha:e the same pro6a6i"it8C then the Ba1t that the "atter has a m)1h <reater harm means that it is assessed as ha:in< a m)1h
<reater risk# To simp"iB8 mattersC s)ppose ?e ha:e a harm s1a"e oB 0 to 100C000 pointsC and the n)1"ear p"ant e-p"osion rates as 9+C000 pointsC and the air1raBt 1rash as %00 points# ()ppose
the pro6a6i"it8 oB the "atter is 0#0001 Ni#e#C 1 in 10C000OC and the pro6a6i"it8 oB the Bormer is 0#00001 N1 in 100C000O# 2+ The n)1"ear p"ant e-p"osion thereBore ends )p ?ith a risk s1ore oB 0#9+C
?hi"e the air1raBt 1rash ends )p ?ith a s1ore oB 0#0%# .n this 1aseC thenC the n)1"ear e-p"osion is F)d<ed to 6e o:er %0 times more risk8 than the air1raBt 1rash# This demonstrates that
risk ana"8sis does not i<nore the harm oB a possi6"e e:ent# .B a risk ana"8st rates a n)1"ear e-p"osion as ha:in< an eA)a" or "o?er risk
s1ore than a p"ane 1rashC that is 6e1a)se the8 rate the Bormer as :er8 m)1h more )n"ike"8 than the p"ane 1rashC and this "o?er
pro6a6i"it8 1an1e"s o)t the hi<her harm "e:e"# Whether or not the ana"8st is ri<ht in assi<nin< s)1h a "o? pro6a6i"it8C the ana"8st has
not i<nored the "e:e" oB harm in:o":ed# 5e1k appears to 6e p)ttin< Bor?ard a :ersion oB a :ie? that is heard sometimes# This is the :ie? that ?ith e:ents oB "o? or medi)m
harmC it is Bine to take a11o)nt oB the de<ree oB the risk rather than the de<ree oB the harmC 6)t that ?ith an e-treme"8 "ar<e harmC s)1h as a n)1"ear po?er p"ant e-p"osionC ?e sho)"d take no
1han1es at a""C 6e1a)se the "ar<eness oB the harm o:er?he"ms a"" other 1onsiderations# s 5e1k sa8sC J$o matter ho? sma"" an a11ident pro6a6i"it8 is he"dC it is too "ar<e ?hen one a11ident
means annihi"ationK N1992C 29-%0O# 1t)a""8C 5e1ks position here 1o)"d eA)ate to t?o diBBerent 1"aims# The Birst 1"aim is that ?ith potentia" e:ents oB hi<h harmC ?e sho)"d i<nore risk
a"to<etherC and not 6e <)ided 68 pro6a6i"it8C 6)t on"8 68 the "e:e" oB harm# . 1a"" this the Mhi<h harm rep"a1es risk :ie?# The other 1"aim does not sa8 that ?e sho)"d i<nore pro6a6i"it8C 6)t
rather sa8s that the ma<nit)de oB the harm is so e-treme that e:en ?ith a "o? pro6a6i"it8C m)"tip"8in< the harm 68 the pro6a6i"it8 ?i"" prod)1e a :er8 hi<h risk s1ore# . 1a"" this the Mhi<h harm
o:er?he"ms pro6a6i"it8 :ie?# The Birst 1"aim does not ho"d )p to inspe1tion# There are :er8 man8 a1ti:ities that ha:e a potentia""8 hi<h harm# .t is possi6"e
that an a11ident in a h8droe"e1tri1 po?er p"ant 1o)"d 1a)se an e"e1tri1a" 1hain rea1tion that e"e1tro1)tes e:er86od8 in the ?or"d# .t is
possi6"e that dri""in< Bor oi" in the $orth (ea 1o)"d 1a)se a <as "eak that poisons e:er86od8# 4r that sneezin< 1o)"d pass on a 6)< that
ki""s e:er8one# These ha:e the same harm as 5e1ks h8potheti1a" n)1"ear e-p"osion# 5)t it is reasona6"e not to 6e ?orried a6o)t s)1h
possi6i"itiesC and no6od8 isC 6e1a)se the8 are too impro6a6"e to 6e 1on1erned ?ith# 20 @en1eC the :ie? that ?e sho)"d i<nore
pro6a6i"it8 in re<ard to e:ents oB hi<h harmIthat isC that in s)1h 1ases hi<h harm rep"a1es riskIdoes not ho"d )p#
True political action is only attaina#le a!ter multiplying magnitude #y pro#a#ility.
0unstein 4M N&ass R# !e"i- !rankB)rter ProBessor oB La? at @ar:ard La? (1hoo"# &"erked Bor L)sti1e Th)r<ood 7arsha"" oB the 9#(#
()preme &o)rtQ UWorst-&ase (1enariosU @ar:ard 9ni:ersit8 Press 2000 pg.2M+-,0O QQ)A
&atastrophi1 @arm Pre1a)tionar8 Prin1ip"e is Bar more )seB)"# .n its most modest BormC that prin1ip"e 1a""s Bor 1"ose attention to 6oth
the ma<nit)de and the pro6a6i"it8 oB harm and hen1e to e-pe1ted :a")e# .t demonstratesC Bor e-amp"eC that a 1 per1ent 1han1e oB
10C000 deaths is not ?orth "ess attention than a +0 per1ent 1han1e oB 200 deaths# mi"d"8 more a<<ressi:e :ersion oB the prin1ip"e
emphasizes that 10C000 deathsC BromC sa8C a terrorist atta1kC are "ike"8 to 6e m)1h ?orseC in their impa1tC than a simp"e e-er1ise in
m)"tip"i1ation mi<ht s)<<est# Those deaths ?i"" ha:e ripp"e eBBe1ts that in1")de serio)s e1onomi1 and none1onomi1 harm# s a sma""
e-amp"eC re1a"" the Ba1t that in the aBtermath oB the atta1ks oB 9/11C man8 peop"e s?it1hed Brom B"8in< to dri:in<-and that 6e1a)se
dri:in< is so m)1h more dan<ero)s than B"8in<C tho)sands oB peop"e died as a res)"t oB the s?it1h# This Uso1ia" amp"iBi1ation oB riskU
s)<<ests that spe1ia" steps sho)"d 6e taken to pre:ent rea" 1atastrophesC e:en hi<h"8 )n"ike"8 ones# When ?e 1reate a mar<in oB saBet8
Bor 1ertain "ar<e-s1a"e harmsC o)r 6eha:ior is akin to a p)r1hase oB ins)ran1eQ ?hether the mar<in is ?orth?hi"e depends on ?hat is
"ost and ?hat is <ained 68 insistin< on it# The idea oB Ue-pe1ted :a")eU 1an 6e 1ontro:ersia" in this domainC and sometimes it ?i""
reA)ire a "ot oB thinkin< a6o)t o)r deepest 1ommitments# N@o? m)1hC Bor e-amp"eC sho)"d ?e attend to risks to anima"s?O 5)t in man8
1asesC ?e 1an make a "ot oB pro<ress in de1idin< ?hat to do ?itho)t reso":in< the most B)ndamenta" iss)es# .n s)1h 1asesC a !ocus on
the magnitude and the li$elihood o! harm will #e enough to ena#le us to identi!y the right course o! action. .n ordinar8 "iBeC ?e
oBten make the re"e:ant F)d<ments :er8 A)i1k"8C and see either that the ?orst-1ase s1enario deser:es no 1on1ern Nthe airp"ane rea""8
isnRt <oin< to 1rashO or that ?e o)<ht to take pre1a)tions# N.t pro6a6"8 does make sense to ha:e a 1o"onos1op8 aBter a<e BiBt8C e:en
tho)<h it ?onRt 6e a "ot oB B)n#O (ometimes sensi6"e F)d<ments reA)ire )s to <o Bar 6e8ond o)r int)itionsQ ?e need to 6e s8stemati1
a6o)t the )nder"8in< :aria6"es# !or pri:ate and p)6"i1 instit)tionsC a Borma" assessment oB the e-pe1ted :a")e oB 6oth risks and
pre1a)tionsC in1")din< an8 mar<in oB saBet8C is indispensa6"e#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
+9/68
1NC UTIL GOOD 1/2
*. /tilitarianism inevita#le even in deontological !ramewor$s
Areen, 02 ' ssistant ProBessor 2epartment oB Ps81ho"o<8 @ar:ard 9ni:ersit8 NLosh)aC $o:em6er 2002 UThe Terri6"eC @orri6"eC $o GoodC Per8 5ad Tr)th 6o)t
7ora"it8 nd What To 2o 6o)t .tUC %1*O GX
(ome peop"e ?ho ta"k oB 6a"an1in< ri<hts ma8 think there is an a"<orithm Bor de1idin< ?hi1h ri<hts take priorit8 o:er ?hi1h# .B
thats ?hat ?e mean 68 %02 J6a"an1in< ri<htsCK then ?e are ?ise to sh)n this sort oB ta"k# ttemptin< to so":e mora" pro6"ems
)sin< a 1omp"e- deonto"o<i1a" a"<orithm is do<matism at its most esoteri1C 6)t do<matism a"" the same# @o?e:erC its "ike"8 that
?hen some peop"e ta"k a6o)t J6a"an1in< 1ompetin< ri<hts and o6"i<ationsK the8 are a"read8 thinkin< "ike 1onseA)entia"ists in spite
oB their )se oB deonto"o<i1a" "an<)a<e # 4n1e a<ainC ?hat deonto"o<i1a" "an<)a<e does 6est is e-press the tho)<hts oB peop"e str)1k
68 stron<C emotiona" mora" int)itions3 J.t doesnt matter that 8o) 1an sa:e Bi:e peop"e 68 p)shin< him to his death# To do this
?o)"d 6e a :io"ation oB his ri<htsDK19 That is ?h8 an<r8 protesters sa8 thin<s "ikeC Jnima"s @a:e Ri<hts C TooDK rather thanC
Jnima" Testin<3 The @arms 4)t?ei<h the 5eneBitsDK 4n1e a<ainC ri<hts ta"k 1apt)res the apparent 1"arit8 oB the iss)e and
a6so")teness oB the ans?er # 5)t sometimes ri<hts ta"k persists "on< aBter the sense oB 1"arit8 and a6so")teness has Baded# 4ne
thinksC Bor e-amp"eC oB the tho)sands oB 1hi"dren ?hose "i:es are sa:ed 68 dr)<s that ?ere tested on anima"s and the Jri<htsK oB
those 1hi"dren# 4ne Binds onese"B 6a"an1in< the Jri<htsK on 6oth sides 68 askin< ho? man8 ra66it "i:es one is ?i""in< to sa1riBi1e in
order to sa:e one h)man "iBeC and so onC and at the end oB the da8 ones )nder"8in< tho)<ht is as thoro)<h"8 1onseA)entia"ist as 1an
6eC despite the deonto"o<i1a" <"oss# nd ?hats ?ron< ?ith that? $othin<C e-1ept Bor the Ba1t that the deonto"o<i1a" <"oss adds
nothin< and B)rthers the m8th that there rea""8 are Jri<htsCK et1# 5est to drop it# When deonto"o<i1a" ta"k <ets sophisti1atedC the
tho)<ht it represents is either do<mati1 in an esoteri1 sort oB ?a8 or 1o:ert"8 1onseA)entia"ist#
2. /tilitarianism is the only moral !ramewor$ and alternatives are inevita#ility sel!-contradictory
9ye, ,K HFoseph 0. *+,KQ Phd Po"iti1a" (1ien1e @ar:ard# 9ni:ersit8Q (er:ed as ssistant (e1retar8 oB 2eBense Bor .nternationa" (e1)rit8 BBairsQ J$)1"ear ,thi1sK p<# 18-
19O GX
The si<niBi1an1e and the "imits oB the t?o 6road traditions 1an 6e 1apt)red 68 1ontemp"atin< a h8potheti1a" 1ase#%* .ma<ine that 8o)
are :isitin< a &entra" meri1an 1o)ntr8 and 8o) happen )pon a :i""a<e sA)are ?here an arm8 1aptain is a6o)t to order his men to
shoot t?o peasants "ined )p a<ainst a ?a"" # When 8o) ask the reasonC 8o) are to"d someone in this :i""a<e shot at the 1aptainRs men
"ast ni<ht# When 8o) o6Fe1t to the ki""in< oB possi6"8 inno1ent peop"eC 8o) are to"d that 1i:i" ?ars do not permit mora" ni1eties# L)st to
pro:e the point that ?e a"" ha:e dirt8 hands in s)1h sit)ationsC the 1aptain hands 8o) a riB"e and te""s 8o) that iB 8o) ?i"" shoot one
peasantC he ?i"" Bree the other# 4ther?ise 6oth die# @e ?arns 8o) not to tr8 an8 tri1ks 6e1a)se his men ha:e their <)ns trained on
8o)# Wi"" 8o) shoot one person ?ith the 1onseA)en1es oB sa:in< oneC or ?i"" 8o) a""o? 6oth to die 6)t preser:e 8o)r mora"
inte<rit8 68 reB)sin< to p"a8 his dirt8 <ame? The point oB the stor8 is to sho? the :a")e and "imits oB 6oth traditions#
.nte<rit8 is 1"ear"8 an important :a")eC and man8 oB )s ?o)"d reB)se to shoot# 5)t at ?hat point does the prin1ip"e oB not
takin< an inno1ent "iBe 1o""apse 6eBore the 1onseA)entia"ist 6)rden? Wo)"d it matter iB there ?ere t?ent8 or 1C000 peasants to 6e
sa:ed? What iB ki""in< or tort)rin< one inno1ent person 1o)"d sa:e a 1it8 oB 10 mi""ion persons Brom a terroristsR n)1"ear
de:i1e? t some point does not inte<rit8 6e1ome the )"timate e<oism oB Bastidio)s se"B-ri<hteo)sness in ?hi1h the p)rit8 oB the se"B is
more important than the "i:es oB 1o)nt"ess others? .s it not 6etter to Bo""o? a 1onseA)entia"ist approa1hC admit remorse or re<ret
o:er the immora" meansC 6)t F)stiB8 the a1tion 68 the 1onseA)en1es ? 2o a6so")tist approa1hes to inte<rit8 6e1ome se"B-
1ontradi1tor8 in a ?or"d oB n)1"ear ?eapons? U2o ?hat is ri<ht tho)<h the ?or"d sho)"d perishU ?as a diBBi1)"t prin1ip"e e:en ?hen
;ant e-po)nded it in the ei<hteenth 1ent)r8C and there is some e:iden1e that he did not mean it to 6e taken "itera""8 e:en then# $o?
that it ma8 6e "itera""8 possi6"e in the n)1"ear a<eC it seems more than e:er to 6e se"B-1ontradi1tor8#%+ 6so")tist ethi1s
6ear a hea:ier 6)rden oB prooB in the n)1"ear a<e than e:er 6eBore#
. ?nly conse>uentialism can resolve con!licting moral values and promote healthy society
:ailey, +M NLames Wood 1990Q J4-Bord 9ni:ersit8 PressQ J9ti"itarianismC instit)tionsC and L)sti1eK p< 9O GX
1onseA)entia"ist mora" theor8 1an take a11o)nt oB this :arian1e and dire1t )s in o)r de1ision a6o)t ?hether a p"a)si6"e ri<ht to
eA)a"it8 o)<ht to o)t?ei<h a p"a)si6"e ri<ht to Breedom oB e-pression# 16 .n some 1ir1)mstan1es the eBBe1ts oB porno<raph8 ?o)"d s)re"8 6e ma"i<n eno)<h to
F)stiB8 o)r 6annin< itC 6)t in others the8 ma8 6e not ma"i<n eno)<h to F)stiB8 an8 interBeren1e in Breedom# .? deonto"o<i1a" theor8C in 1ontrastC ?o)"d 6e
reA)ired either to rank the side 1onstraintsC ?hi1h Bor6id a<ents Brom interBerin< in the Bree e-pression oB others and Brom
impairin< the mora" eA)a"it8 oB othersC or to admit deBeat and 1"aim that no adF)di1ation 6et?een the t?o ri<hts is
possi6"e# The "atter admission is a <ra:e Bai")re sin1e it ?o)"d "ea:e )s no prin1ip"ed reso")tion oB a serio)s po"i18
A)estion# 5)t the Bormer 1on1")sion is hard"8 attra1ti:e either# Wo)"d ?e rea""8 ?ish to esta6"ish as tr)e Bor a"" times and 1ir1)mstan1es a "e-i1a" orderin< 6et?een
t?o side 1onstraints on o)r a1tions ?itho)t 1areB)" attention to 1onseA)en1es? Wo)"d ?eC Bor instan1eC rea""8 ?ish to esta6"ish that the s"i<htest ma"i<n ine<a"itarian
eBBe1t tra1ea6"e to a Borm oB e-pression is adeA)ate <ro)nds Bor an intr)si:e and 1ost"8 1ensorship? 4r ?o)"d ?eC a"ternati:e"8C rea""8 ?ish to esta6"ish that ?e sho)"d 6e
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
60/68
prepared to to"erate a so1iet8 horri6"e Bor ?omen and 1hi"dren to "i:e inC Bor the sake oB not a""o?in< an8 inBrin<ement on the sa1red ri<ht oB Bree e-pression?18
&onseA)entia"ist a11o)nts 1an a:oid s)1h a deonto"o<i1a" di"emma# .n so doin<C the8 sho? a 1ertain hea"th8 sense oB rea"ism a6o)t
?hat "iBe in so1iet8 is "ike# .n the ?or"d o)tside the theoristRs st)d8C ?e meet trade-oBBs at e:er8 t)m# ,:er8 po"i18 ?e make ?ith some
?orth8 end in (i<ht imposes 1osts in terms oB diminished a1hie:ement oB some other p"a)si6"8 ?orth8 end# &onseA)entia"ism
demands that ?e <rapp"e ?ith these 1osts as dire1t"8 as ?e 1an and F)stiB8 their in1)rren1e# .t Bor6ids )s to dismiss them ?ith mora"
sophistries or to i<nore them as iB ?e "i:ed in an idea" ?or"d#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
61/68
1NC UTIL GOOD 2/2
2. Dolicy-ma$ing re>uires assessment o! all ris$s despite pro#a#ility
7ud$ows$y 0, ' !)""-time Resear1h !e""o? at the (in<)"arit8 .nstit)te Bor rtiBi1ia" .nte""i<en1e and &oBo)nder N,"iezerC Lan)ar8
22
nd
2008C J&ir1)"ar "tr)ismKO GX
4:er"8 detai"ed reass)ran1es 1an a"so 1reate Ba"se per1eptions oB saBet83 U_ is not an e-istentia" risk and 8o) donRt need to ?orr8 a6o)t
itC 6e1a)se C 5C &C 2C and ,UQ ?here the Bai")re oB an8 one oB propositions C 5C &C 2C or , potentia""8 e-tin<)ishes the
h)man spe1ies# UWe donRt need to ?orr8 a6o)t nanote1hno"o<i1 ?arC 6e1a)se a 9$ 1ommission ?i"" initia""8 de:e"op the te1hno"o<8
and pre:ent its pro"iBeration )nti" s)1h time as an a1ti:e shie"d is de:e"opedC 1apa6"e oB deBendin< a<ainst a"" a11identa" and ma"i1io)s
o)t6reaks that 1ontemporar8 nanote1hno"o<8 is 1apa6"e oB prod)1in<C and this 1ondition ?i"" persist indeBinite"8#U Pi:idC spe1iBi1
s1enarios 1an inB"ate o)r pro6a6i"it8 estimates oB se1)rit8C as ?e"" as misdire1tin< deBensi:e in:estments into need"ess"8
narro? or imp"a)si6"8 detai"ed risk s1enarios# 7ore <enera""8C peop"e tend to o:erestimate 1onF)n1ti:e pro6a6i"ities and
)nderestimate disF)n1ti:e pro6a6i"ities# NT:ersk8 and ;ahneman 190*#O That isC peop"e tend to o:erestimate the pro6a6i"it8 thatC
e#<#C se:en e:ents oB 90Z pro6a6i"it8 ?i"" a"" o11)r# &on:erse"8C peop"e tend to )nderestimate the pro6a6i"it8 that at "east one oB se:en
e:ents oB 10Z pro6a6i"it8 ?i"" o11)r# (omeone F)d<in< ?hether toC e#<#C in1orporate a ne? start)pC m)st e:a")ate the pro6a6i"it8 that
man8 indi:id)a" e:ents ?i"" a"" <o ri<ht Nthere ?i"" 6e s)BBi1ient B)ndin<C 1ompetent emp"o8eesC 1)stomers ?i"" ?ant the prod)1tO
?hi"e a"so 1onsiderin< the "ike"ihood that at "east one 1riti1a" Bai")re ?i"" o11)r Nthe 6ank reB)ses a "oanC the 6i<<est proFe1t Bai"sC the
"ead s1ientist diesO# This ma8 he"p e-p"ain ?h8 on"8 **Z oB entreprene)ria" :ent)res% s)r:i:e aBter * 8ears# N;na)p 200+#O
2a?es N1988O o6ser:es3 R.n their s)mmations "a?8ers a:oid ar<)in< Brom disF)n1tions NUeither this or that or the other 1o)"d ha:e
o11)rredC a"" oB ?hi1h ?o)"d "ead to the same 1on1")sionUO in Ba:or oB 1onF)n1tions# Rationa""8C oB 1o)rseC disF)n1tions are m)1h more
pro6a6"e than are 1onF)n1tions#R The s1enario oB h)manit8 <oin< e-tin1t in the ne-t 1ent)r8 is a disF)n1ti:e e:ent# .t 1o)"d
happen as a res)"t oB an8 oB the e-istentia" risks dis1)ssed in this 6ook - or some other 1a)se ?hi1h none oB )s Bore sa?#
Eet Bor a B)t)ristC disF)n1tions make Bor an a?k?ard and )npoeti1-so)ndin< prophe18#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
62/68
2NC UTIL GOOD EXT)
*. 1.tend human tendancies are inevita#ly conse>uentialist deontology is idealist #ut not practical. The only moral
!ramewor$ is one that saves the most lives that(s Areen and 9ye
2. 1.tend ris$s should #e evaluated in a conse>uentialist mindset moral side constraints !rom a deontological perspective are
contradictory and aren(t real world that(s :ailey
. ?nly utilitarian ris$ assessment can prevent e.tinction and should #e evaluated #e!ore pro#a#ility claims that(s
7ud$ows$y
/tilitarianism is the only way to access morality. 0acri!ice in the name o! preserving rights destroys any hope o! !uture
generations attaining other values. 9ye, ,K
NLoseph (# 1986Q Phd Po"iti1a" (1ien1e @ar:ard# 9ni:ersit8Q (er:ed as ssistant (e1retar8 oB 2eBense Bor .nternationa" (e1)rit8
BBairsQ J$)1"ear ,thi1sK p<# *+-*6O GX
.s there an8 end that 1o)"d F)stiB8 a n)1"ear ?ar that threatens the s)r:i:a" oB the spe1ies? .s not a""-o)t n)1"ear ?ar F)st as se"B
1ontradi1tor8 in the rea" ?or"d as pa1iBism is a11)sed oB 6ein<? (ome peop"e ar<)e that U?e are reA)ired to )nder<o <ross
inF)sti1e that ?i"" 6reak man8 so)"s sooner than o)rse":es 6e the a)thors oB mass m)rder#U0% (ti"" others sa8 that U?hen a
person makes s)r:i:a" the hi<hest :a")eC he has de1"ared that there is nothin< he ?i"" not 6etra8# 5)t Bor a 1i:i"ization to sa1riBi1e
itse"B makes no sense sin1e there are not s)r:i:ors to <i:e meanin< to the sa1riBi1a" Gsi1H a1t# .n that 1aseC s)r:i:a" ma8 6e
?orth 6etra8a"#U .s it possi6"e to a:oid the Umora" 1a"amit8 oB a po"i18 "ike )ni"atera" disarmament that Bor1es )s to 1hoose
6et?een 6ein< dead or red N?hi"e in1reasin< the 1han1es oB 6othOU?0* @o? one F)d<es the iss)e oB ends 1an 6e aBBe1ted 68 ho?
one poses the A)estions# .B one asks U?hat is ?orth a 6i""ion "i:es Nor the s)r:i:a" oB the spe1iesOCU it is nat)ra" to resist
1ontemp"atin< a positi:e ans?er# 5)t s)ppose one asksC Uis it possi6"e to ima<ine an8 threat to o)r 1i:i"ization and :a")es that
?o)"d F)stiB8 raisin< the threat to a 6i""ion "i:es Brom one in ten tho)sand to one in a tho)sand Bor a spe1iBi1 period?U Then
there are se:era" p"a)si6"e ans?ersC in1")din< a demo1rati1 ?a8 oB "iBe and 1herished Breedoms that <i:e meanin< to "iBe 6e8ond mere
s)r:i:a"# When ?e p)rs)e se:era" :a")es sim)"taneo)s"8C ?e Ba1e the Ba1t that the8 oBten 1onB"i1t and that ?e Ba1e diBBi1)"t
tradeoBBs# .B ?e make one :a")e a6so")te in priorit8C ?e are "ike"8 to <et that :a")e and "itt"e e"se# ()r:i:a" is a ne1essar8
1ondition Bor the enFo8ment oB other :a")esC 6)t that does not make it s)BBi1ient# Lo<i1a" priorit8 does not make it an a6so")te
:a")e# !e? peop"e a1t as tho)<h s)r:i:a" ?ere an a6so")te :a")e in their persona" "i:esC or the8 ?o)"d ne:er enter an a)tomo6i"e# We
1an <i:e s)r:i:a" oB the spe1ies a :er8 hi<h priorit8 ?itho)t <i:in< it the para"8zin< stat)s oB an a6so")te :a")e# (ome
de<ree oB risk is )na:oida6"e iB indi:id)a"s or so1ieties are to a:oid para"8sis and enhan1e the A)a"it8 oB "iBe 6e8ond mere
s)r:i:a"# The de<ree oB that risk is a F)stiBia6"e topi1 oB 6oth pr)dentia" and mora" reasonin<#
/tiliarianism is necessary in a comple. world
Aooden, *++3 HRo6ertC phi"sopher at the Resear1h (1hoo" oB the (o1ia" (1ien1esC 9ti"itarianism as P)6"i1 Phi"osoph8# P# 62-6%O ((
&onsiderC BirstC the ar<)ment Brom ne1essit8# P)6"i1 oBBi1ia"s are o6"i<ed to make their 1hoi1es )nder )n1ertaint8C and )n1ertaint8 oB a
:er8 spe1ia" sort at that# "" 1hoi1esIp)6"i1 and pri:ate a"ikeIare made )nder some de<ree oB )n1ertaint8C oB 1o)rse# 5)t in the
nat)re oB thin<sC pri:ate indi:id)a"s ?i"" )s)a""8 ha:e more 1omp"ete inBormation on the pe1)"iarities oB their o?n 1ir1)mstan1es and
on the ramiBi1ations that a"ternati:e possi6"e 1hoi1es mi<ht ha:e on them# P)6"i1 oBBi1ia"sC in 1ontrastC are re"ati:e"8 poor"8 inBormed
as to the eBBe1ts that their 1hoi1es ?i"" ha:e on indi:id)a"sC one 68 one# What the8 t8pi1a""8 do kno? are <enera"ities3 a:era<es and
a<<re<ates# The8 kno? ?hat ?i"" happen most oBten to most peop"e as a res)"t oB their :ario)s possi6"e 1hoi1es# 5)t that is a""# That
is eno)<h to a""o? p)6"i1 po"i18-makers to )se the )ti"itarian 1a"1)")sIiB the8 ?ant to )se it at a""Ito 1hoose <enera" r)"es oB
1ond)1t# ;no?in< a<<re<ates and a:era<esC the8 1an pro1eed to 1a"1)"ate the )ti"it8 pa8oBBs Brom adoptin< ea1h a"ternati:e possi6"e
<enera" r)"es#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
6%/68
AT: EN#IRONMENTAL ETHICS
8e must privelege economics over environmental ethics
Thompson, 200 N5artonC proBessor oB nat)ra" reso)r1es "a? at (tanBordC 20 ,n:irons ,n:ironmenta" La? b Po"i18 Lo)rna" 10+C !a""C "e-isO ((
,1onomi1s 1an p"a8 a :ariet8 oB ro"es in en:ironmenta" po"i18# (ome )ses oB e1onomi1s ma8 1onB"i1t ?ith the ethi1a" pre1epts oB en:ironmenta" mora"ists and perhaps e:en threaten their
strate<i1 <oa"s# GT100H .n other 1onte-tsC ho?e:erC e1onomi1s ma8 pro:ide the en:ironmenta" mora"ist ?ith a :a")a6"e strate<i1 or pra1ti1a" too"# ,n:ironmenta" mora"ists ?ho
reFe1t a"" Borms oB e1onomi1 ana"8sis 6e1a)se some )ses oB e1onomi1s 1onB"i1t ?ith their ethi1a" 6e"ieBs risk )nderminin< their <oa"s oB
impro:in< and prote1tin< the en:ironment and 1han<in< o)r re"ationship ?ith the en:ironment# !ar Brom 6ein< inherent"8 in1onsistent
?ith en:ironmenta" ethi1sC e1onomi1s ma8 a1t)a""8 6e essentia" to a11omp"ishin< ethi1a" ends# ,1onomi1s 1an 6e )sed in at "east Bo)r partia""8
o:er"appin< ?a8s# !irstC it 1an 6e )sed as a normative too" to determine the appropriate t8pe and "e:e" oB en:ironmenta" prote1tion# This is the rea"m oB 1ost-6eneBit ana"8sisC ?here the
e1onomi1 6eneBits oB :ario)s en:ironmenta" proposa"s in the Borm oB a:oided hea"th inF)riesC in1reased re1reationa" opport)nitiesC spe1ies :a")eC and the "ike are 6a"an1ed a<ainst the e1onomi1
1osts oB "ost Fo6sC ne? eA)ipmentC and red)1ed 1ons)mer 1hoi1es# 7)1h oB the 1riti1ism oB e1onomi1 ana"8sis in the en:ironmenta" 1onte-t has Bo1)sed on this normati:e )se oB e1onomi1s# To
the en:ironmenta" mora"istC 1ost-6eneBit ana"8sis errs at the o)tset 68 Bo1)sin< on the @ea:en-reFe1ted U"ore oB ni1e"8-1a"1)"ated "ess or moreU n2 rather than the ethi1a" importan1e oB a hea"th8
and s)staina6"e en:ironment# 5e8ond the A)estion oB ?hether 1ost-6eneBit ana"8sis )ses the 1orre1t 1riteriaC 1riti1s a"so o6Fe1t to ho? the <o:ernment makes 1ost-6eneBit 1omparisons# &riti1sC
Bor e-amp"eC ha:e 1ha""en<ed the methods )sed to meas)re the 6eneBits oB en:ironmenta" pro<ramsC the de1ision to meas)re 6eneBits 6ased on indi:id)a"sR 1)rrent preBeren1esC the 1omparison
oB 6eneBits and 1osts that en:ironmenta" mora"ists Bind e1onomi1a""8 Uin1ommens)ra6"eCU and the de1ision to dis1o)nt B)t)re 6eneBits Ns)1h as "i:es sa:ed man8 de1ades Brom no? d)e to
1)rrent en:ironmenta" prote1tion meas)resO# n% ,1onomi1sC ho?e:erC 1an 6e )sed Bor p)rposes other than normati:e e:a")ations oB potentia" en:ironmenta" meas)res# se1ond )se to ?hi1h
e1onomi1s is BreA)ent"8 p)tC Bor e-amp"eC is as a dia$nostic too" to determine ?h8 so1iet8 is not a1hie:in< the desired t8pe and "e:e" oB en:ironmenta" prote1tion Nre<ard"ess oB ho? the desired
t8pes and "e:e"s oB prote1tion are determinedO# Garrett @ardinRs Bamo)s dis1)ssion oB the GT108H Utra<ed8 oB the 1ommonsU is a <ood e-amp"e oB this dia<nosti1 )se oB e1onomi1s3 ?hen a
1ommon reso)r1e is BreeC )sers enFo8 a"" oB the 6eneBits oB )se 6)t share the "osses and th)s tend to o:er)ti"ize the reso)r1e# n* 9sed as a dia<nosti1 too"C e1onomi1s 1an he"p
point to the reasons BorC and th)s the most eBBe1ti:e so")tions toC a ?ide :ariet8 oB en:ironmenta" pro6"ems# ThirdC en:ironmenta"
ad:o1ates 1an )se e1onomi1s as a strate<i1 %olitical too" to he"p o:er1ome opposition to en:ironmenta" meas)res and in1rease the
1han1es oB s)11essB)" adoption# ,1onomi1 1on1erns oBten <enerate opposition to en:ironmenta" meas)resC and opponents BreA)ent"8
1ite e1onomi1 1on1erns as a rationa"e Bor not ena1tin< the meas)res# "tho)<h proponents mi<ht :ie? man8 oB these e1onomi1
1on1erns as normati:e"8 irre"e:ant or mis1on1ei:edC the 1on1erns are nonethe"ess a po"iti1a" rea"it8# ,1onomi1 ana"8sis 1an sometimes
dispro:e the 6asis Bor these 1on1erns and th)s hopeB)""8 e"iminate them as a so)r1e oB po"iti1a" opposition# (t)dies oB a parti1)"ar meas)reC Bor
e-amp"eC ma8 demonstrate that the meas)re ?i"" not red)1e emp"o8ment as )nions Bear# .n other 1asesC en:ironmenta" proponents 1an )se e1onomi1 ana"8sis to Bind means oB minimizin<
e1onomi1 impa1ts on ke8 po"iti1a" stakeho"ders ?hi"e sti"" a1hie:in< en:ironmenta" <oa"s#
1nvironmental ethics can(t apply to pro#lems e!!ectively
)inteer et al, 2002 N5enC Lo)rna" oB <ri1)"t)ra" and ,n:ironmenta" ,thi1sC 103 1%1-1+6C e6s1oO ((
,:en tho)<h 2e?e8 ?rote de1ades 6eBore the 6irth oB en:ironmenta" ethi1s as an a1ademi1 Bie"dC he ne:erthe"ess reFe1ted the same sort oB prin1ip"e-ist approa1h he sa?
as p"a<)in< m)1h oB the Western phi"osophi1a" tradition# !or startersC 2e?e8 ar<)ed that phi"osophers ad:o1a18 oB the app"i1ation oB JBi-edK ethi1a"
1"aims arti1)"ated prior to reB"e1tion in 1on1rete sit)ations and de1ision 1onte-ts r)ns into a n)m6er oB de6i"itatin< pro6"ems in
pra1ti1e# 4ne oB these pro6"ems is the diBBi1)"t8 oB interpretin< the <enera" prin1ip"e in A)estion in "i<ht oB 1omp"e- and 1han<in<
e-perientia" 1ir1)mstan1es# s 2e?e8 o6ser:edC ,:en iB a"" men a<reed sin1ere"8 to a1t )pon the prin1ip"e oB the Go"den R)"e as the s)preme "a? oB 1ond)1tC ?e
sho)"d sti"" need inA)ir8 and tho)<ht to arri:e at e:en a passa6"e 1on1eption oB ?hat the R)"e means in terms oB 1on1rete pra1ti1e )nder mi-ed and 1han<in< so1ia"
1onditions# 9ni:ersa" a<reement )pon the a6stra1t prin1ip"e e:en iB it e-isted ?o)"d 6e oB :a")e on"8 as a pre"iminar8 to 1ooperati:e )ndertakin< oB in:esti<ation and
tho)<htB)" p"annin<Q as a preparationC in other ?ordsC Bor s8stemati1 and 1onsistent reB"e1tion N2e?e8C 1989C p# 108O# .n 2e?e8s :ie?C mora" prin1ip"es sho)"d 6e seen
as 1omprisin< on"8 one part oB the pro1ess oB tho)<htB)" and reB"e1ti:e inA)ir8 into spe1iBi1 pro6"emati1 sit)ations# Whi"e these 1"aims oBten ha:e a pres)mpti:e Bor1e in
o)r de"i6erations o:er the ri<ht po"i18 or a1tion Na Bor1e o?in< to their pre:io)s s)11ess in he"pin< )s adapt to pre:io)s pro6"emsOC the8 1anC at 6estC 1apt)re on"8 a
parti1)"ar aspe1t or dimension oB the "ar<erC 1omp"e- e-perientia" sit)ation in ?hi1h ?e Bind o)rse":es en<a<ed# (in1e past e-perien1e sho?s that these )nsta6"e and
indeterminate 1onte-ts oBten Bind )s str)<<"in< to harmonize disparate ri<htsC d)tiesC <oodsC :irt)esC and the "ike ' ea1h oB ?hi1h 1ompetes Bor attention and inB")en1e in
o)r mora" F)d<ments ' the se"e1tion oB an8 one oB these Bor spe1ia" emphasis 6eBore 1onte-t)a" ana"8sis th?arts inte""i<ent mora" inA)ir8# $ot on"8 are
pro6"emati1 sit)ations s)BBi1ient"8 dense and 1omp"e- as to 1a"" into A)estion the Borma"isti1 app"i1ation oB an8 <enera" prin1ip"e "aid
do?n in ad:an1eC the8 are a"so di:erse eno)<h to 1ha""en<e the )n1riti1a" re"ian1e )pon an8 sin<"e mora" 1"aim in <o:ernin< o)r
inA)ir8 into potentia" a"ternati:e 1o)rses oB a1tion# s 2e?e8 ?roteC <en)ine"8 reB"e1ti:e mora"s ?i"" "ook )pon a"" the Gmora"H 1odes as possi6"e data#.t
?i"" neither insist do<mati1a""8 )pon some oB themC nor id"8 thro? them a"" a?a8 as oB no si<niBi1an1e# .t ?i"" treat them as a storeho)se oB inBormation and possi6"e
indi1ations oB ?hat is no? ri<ht and <ood N2e?e8C 1989C p# 109Q emphasis in ori<ina"O# 2e?e8s p")ra"ismC 1om6ined ?ith his e-perimenta" approa1h to ethi1a"
reasonin<C meant that there ?as no a prioriC 1onte-t-independent manner in ?hi1h to rank :ario)s :a")esC d)tiesC and <oods# ()1h hierar1hies 1o)"d on"8 emer<e thro)<h
the pro1ess oB de"i6erationC ?hi1h in t)rn ?o)"d 6e <)ided 68 the rea" needs and deBi1ien1ies oB the tro)6"in< sit)ation in A)estion N&aspar8C 2000C p# 162O# nd no
matter ho? 1"ose"8 it ma8 seem to resem6"e pre:io)s"8 e-perien1ed di"emmas and disr)ptionsC ea1h pro6"emati1 sit)ation presents )s ?ith somethin<
no:e" and )ne-pe1ted# Gi:en a"" thisC 2e?e8 reasonedC ?e sho)"d not seek to 1onstrain the mora" dis1)ssion to the "an<)a<e oB a
sin<"e prin1ip"e or set oB prin1ip"es prior to e-perimenta" inA)ir8 iB ?e ?ish to respond inte""i<ent"8 and 1reati:e"8 to ne? and
in1reasin<"8 1omp"e- mora" 1ha""en<es#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
6*/68
1NC EXTINCTION OUTWEIGHS ETHICS
*. The ris$ o! e.tinction !rom nuclear war outweighs any impactincluding genocide
0chell +, NLonathanC ProB at Ea"e The GiBt oB Time3 The &ase Bor 6o"ishin< $)1"ear Weapons $o?C 1998C p<# 9-10O ((
The res)"tin< <ap 6et?een po"iti1a" and mora" reA)irements "eBt )s Bor a"most BiBt8 8ears ?ith a Bra1t)re do?n the 1enter oB o)r 6ein<s# .n the ?ords oB Lames <eeC in
)<)st 19*+C F)st a Be? ?eeks aBter @iroshimaC R"" tho)<hts and thin<s ?ere sp"it#U R)dimentar8 mora" prin1ip"e ta)<ht that ?e
m)st ne:erC e:en in Ureta"iationCU threaten to ki"" mi""ions oB inno1ent peop"eC 6)t n)1"ear strate<8 reA)ired )s to do so#
&ommon sense re6e""ed a<ainst oBBerin< )p e:er8 person in o)r 1o)ntr8 as a hosta<e to a hosti"e po?er and seizin< e:er8 person on the territor8 oB that
po?er as a 1o)nterhosta<eC mean?hi"e p"a1in< the ?ho"e arran<ement on a hair tri<<erQ 8et po"i18 1a""ed this "o<i1a""8 ne1essar8# The e-perien1e oB
o)r 1ent)r8 ta)<ht )s that <eno1ide ?as the ?orst oB a"" 1rimesC 6)t a n)1"ear UpriesthoodU ta)<ht )s that to threaten itC and e:en
to 1arr8 it o)tC not on"8 ?as F)stiBia6"e 6)t ?as o)r ines1apa6"e d)t8# ,:er8 s1r)p"e in the h)man 1ons1ien1e de1"ared that ?e m)st ne:er
risk e-tin<)ishin< o)r spe1ies-the s)preme 1rime a<ainst h)manit8C and the on"8 1rime <reater than <eno1ide-6)t so" emn
do1trine de1"ared that it ?as essentia" to threaten this a1t# "" tho)<hts that "ed to?ard other 1on1")sions had to <o )ntho)<ht-and )na1ted
)pon# These ?ere the tr)"8 U)nthinka6"eU tho)<hts oB the &o"d War period# The mor6idit8 oB the era 1onsisted oB more than the threat oB )ni:ersa" death ?ith
?hi1h it ?as o:erh)n<Q it 1onsisted a"so oB the prohi6itionC so h)mi"iatin< to the h)man spiritC a<ainst takin< a1tion to remo:e the threat# Th)s did the
reasonin< oB the a<e seemin<"8 1ompe" not on"8 tota"itarian re<imes 6)t <reat demo1ra1ies to enterC a<ainst a"" their 6etter instin1ts and )nderstandin<C into a
hated 1omp"i1it8 in potentia""8 "imit"ess ki""in<#
2. 8e have an o#ligation to prevent e.tinction
Eehman +, N@)<hC Phi"osoph8 2epartment [ the 9ni:ersit8 oB G)e"phC 4ntarioC JThe ,nd oB the Wor"d3 The (1ien1e and ,thi1s oB
@)man ,-tin1tionKC Lo)rna" oB <ri1)"t)ra" and ,n:ironmenta" ,thi1sC Po"# 11C .ss)e 1C p#6%-*OGX
.t is oB 1o)rse impossi6"e to rationa""8 F)stiB8 an8 pre1ise n)meri1a" estimates oB the pro6a6i"it8 oB e-tin1tion oB the h)man spe1ies#
Les"ie thinks that the dan<er oB e-tin1tion is <reatest in the short term # Bter that the h)man spe1ies ?i"" pro6a6"8 ha:e 1o"onized other p"anets and
?i""C in 1onseA)en1eC ha:e a Bar <reater pro6a6i"it8 oB "on<-term s)r:i:a"# Les"ie himse"B thinks that the pro6a6i"it8 oB o)r s)r:i:in< the ne-t c:e 1ent)ries is in the
nei<h6orhood oB 00Z# 4B 1o)rseC Les"ie is not mere"8 sa8in< that there is a si<nic1ant pro6a6i"it8 that the h)man ra1e ?i"" 6e1ome e-tin1t in the near B)t)re# @e is
a"so sa8in< that this o)<ht not to o11)rC that isC he is makin< an ethi1a" 1"aim# Peop"e en:isa<in< a1tin< in ?a8s that risk 1a)sin< the
e-tin1tion oB the h)man ra1e o)<ht to 1areB)""8 assess the possi6"e 1onseA)en1es oB their a1tions and re:ise their 6eha:ior a11ord-
in<"8# (imi"ar"8C peop"e o)<ht to 1onsider other e:ents ?hi1h mi<ht 1a)se h)man e-tin1tion andC ?here possi6"eC take steps to pre:ent
s)1h e:ents Brom o11)rrin<# .n 1hapter Bo)rC Les"ie o)t"ines his ethi1a" position# .n the cna" 1hapter he dis1)ssesC 6rieh8C theoreti1a" diBc1)"ties ?hi1h arise in
determinin< the 6est ?a8 to 6rin< a6o)t s)1h 1ooperation amon< h)man 6ein<s as ma8 6e ne1essar8 to a:ert disaster#
. Dreventing e.tinction is more moral than preventing misery #ecause we can always recover !rom loss o! value to li!e
Eeslie +, NLohnC 4-Bord ed)1atedC Bormer phi"osoph8 proBessor [ 9 oB G)e"phC Le1t)rer appointed 68 5ritish 1adem8C UThe
end oB the ?or"d3 the s1ien1e and ethi1s oB h)man e-tin1tionUC London3 Ro)t"ed<eC pri" 10C pp# 1%+-0O GX
nother is this# .t 1o)"d ?e"" seem that on"8 short-term dan<ers 1o)"d 6e m)1h threat to the :er8 s)r:i:a" oB the h)man ra1e or its
des1endant ra1es# What 1an it matter thatC Bor e-amp"eC the s)n ?i"" 6e1ome a red <iant and 6oi" the ,arthRs o1eans some Bi:e 6i""ion 8ears .B the8 had s)r:i:ed )nti" thenC h)mans or
their des1endants 1o)"d 6e e-pe1ted to ha:e spread to P")toC or to spa1e 1o"onies positioned at a 1omBorta6"e distan1eC or to the nei<h6o)rhoods oB other stars# @)mankindRs e<<s ?o)"d no
"on<er 6e a"" in the one 6asket# $ot )n"essC thatRs to sa8C a :a1))m metasta6i"it8 disasterIsee &hapter 2Is?ept thro)<h the <a"a-8 at :irt)a""8 the speed oB "i<ht# 5)t the 1han1es oB
s)1h a disaster 1an seem tin8C ?hi"e those oB its happenin< in the distant B)t)re 1o)"d 6e ne<"i<i6"e3 the ne1essar8 hi<h-ener<8 e-periment ?o)"d ha:e
6een perBormed m)1h ear"ierC or ?o)"d ha:e 6een 6anned# n8 <ood "i6rar8 1an pro:ide p"ent8 oB materia" on 4R$ei"" 18"inders Pen)s 6reatha6"e at a 1ost oB a Be? tri""ion do""arsC or p"ans Bor
p)shin< <a"a1ti1 1o"onization Bor?ards at a siza6"e Bra1tion oB the speed oB "i<htC either ?ith h)mans or ?ith ma1hines 1"e:er eno)<h to 6e persons# L)st she":es at homeC there are Bas1inatin<
dis1)ssions oB a"" this in 5arro? and Tip"erRs The nthropi1 &osmo"o<i1a" Prin1ip"eQ in 5randRs (pa1e &o"oniesQ in &"oseRs ,ndQ in 2a:o)stRs The &osmi1 Water @o"eQ in 28sonRs 2ist)r6in< the
9ni:erse and .nBinite in "" 2ire1tionsQ in 712ono)<hRs The (ear1h Bor ,-traterrestria" .nte""i<en1eQ in Rood and TreBi"Rs re We "one?Q in (a<anRs &osmosQ in (hk"o:skii and (a<anRs
.nte""i<ent LiBe in the 9ni:erseQ in ()""i:anRs We re $ot "oneQ and in Tip"erRs 1ontri6)tion to Rothman et a"#C !rontiers oB 7odern Ph8si1s#+ (ome oB the s)<<estions in these and simi"ar
6ooks in:o":e spe1)"ati:e te1hno"o<i1a" ad:an1es# !or instan1eC the8 1on1ern )se oB n)1"ear B)sion or oB antimatter in ro1ket en<inesC or a11e"eratin< a "i<ht-sai" to tremendo)s speed ?ith
"asersC s)6seA)ent"8 )sin< it to deposit nanoma1hiner8 ?hi1h man)Ba1t)res 6rakin<-"asers to stop the massi:e passen<er :ehi1"es that Bo""o?#6 5)t 6a1k in the 1900s G# 4R$ei"" had pers)aded
man8 peop"e that ki"ometer-"on< 18"inders Bor ten tho)sand spa1e 1o"onists 1o)"d 6e made A)i1k"8 and ine-pensi:e"8 ?ith the te1hno"o<8 then a"read8 a:ai"a6"e# nd the 1hemi1a"-ro1ket
te1hno"o<8 oB those da8sI"et a"one the sma"" @-6om6s oB ProFe1t 4rionC ea1h a11e"eratin< a spa1eship F)st a 6it BasterC0 an idea st)died intensi:e"8 in the 9( )nti" the treat8 6annin< n)1"ear
e-p"osions in spa1eI1o)"d itse"B 1on1ei:a6"8 ha:e 6een )sed Bor sendin< spa1e 1o"onists to the nei<h6o)rhoods oB other starsC a"6eit s"o?"83 the Po8a<er spa1e1raBt are tra:e""in< at a speed
?hi1h 1o)"d take them to the nearest star in Bort8 tho)sand 8ears# 11e"erated Birst 68 <ro)nd-6ased "asers and then 68 s)n"i<htC and )sin< the "i<ht oB the tar<et stars Bor de1e"erationC "i<ht-sai"s
1o)"d toda8 do the Fo6 at hi<her speed and sma""er 1ostQ8 and there ha:e 6een :ario)s B)rther s)<<estionsC some oB them no? A)ite o"dC Bor spa1e tra:e" )sin< Bair"8 "o? te1hno"o<8# 9 .t
1o)"d ?e"" seemC thenC that the h)man ra1e is s)re to ha:e 6e1ome se1)re a<ainst imminent e-tin1tionC more or "ess re<ard"ess oB
?hate:er disasters thereaBter hit the ,arthC ?ithin Bi:e 1ent)ries Brom no?C iB on"8 it mana<es to s)r:i:e Bor that "on<# What is
s)rprisin< is that so "itt"e has 6een done to de:e"op ,arth-6ased artiBi1ia" 6iospheres to <et )s thro)<h ?hate:er disasters those
1ent)ries ma8 ho"d# Peop"e ?ere a"" too A)i1k to 1riti1ize the poor s1ien1e 6ehind R5iosphere 2R Nsee &hapter 13 o-8<en "e:e"s dropped
disastro)s"8O# What the8 tended to Bor<et ?as that it had 6een "eBt to a sin<"e indi:id)a"C ,#5assC to pro:ide the ne1essar8 f1+0 mi""ion
in B)ndin<# .B one-h)ndredth as m)1h had 6een spent on de:e"opin< artiBi1ia" 6iospheres as on makin< n)1"ear ?eaponsC a "en<th8
B)t)re Bor h)mankind mi<ht 68 no? 6e :irt)a""8 ass)red# "?a8s remem6er that Bor doomsda8-ar<)ment p)rposes ?e arenRt interested
F)st in ?hether s)1h thin<s as a po"")tion 1risis ?o)"d mean miser8 and death Bor 6i""ions# 7iser8 and death Bor 6i""ions ?o)"d 6e
immense"8 tra<i1C 6)t mi<ht 6e Bo""o?ed 68 s"o? re1o:er8 and then a <"itterin< B)t)re Bor a h)man ra1e ?hi1h had "earned its "esson#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
6+/68
What is 1r)1ia" to the doomsda8 ar<)mentIandC .Rd sa8C the iss)e most important Brom an ethi1a" :ie?pointIis ?hether an8thin<
1o)"d p)t an end to a"" h)mans#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
66/68
EXT %1 FUTURE GENERATIONS
8e have an ethical, moral, and pragmatic o#ligation to the lives o! !uture generations. Ideology that says otherwise relies on
!lawed social theory.
Camp#ell, +, ' ProBessor at Te-as b7 9ni:ersit8 N(tephen 7#C J@are on Possi6"e Peop"eKC
http3//???#phi"osoph8#o-#a1#)k/WWdata/assets/?ordWdo1/0012/1911/&amp6e""W-W@are#do1 //72PO
5(TR&T R# 7# @are 1"aims that ?e ha:e d)ties to take the preBeren1es oB possi6"e peop"e into 1onsideration in mora"
thinkin< and that it 1an harm a mere"8 possi6"e person to ha:e 6een denied e-isten1e# This essa8 has t?o o6Fe1ti:es# !irstC .
sho? ho? @ares positi:e ar<)ment Bor o)r o6"i<ation to possi6"e peop"e need not 1ha""en<e the proponent oB the a1t)a"it8 restri1tion
on mora" 1onsiderationC re<ard"ess oB ?hether this proponent is 1onstr)ed as an amora"ist or a Banati1# (e1ondC . raise some o6Fe1tions
to @ares 1"aim that a mere"8 possi6"e person 1an 6e harmed# ,:en iB @are 1o)"d s)11essB)""8 o:er1ome the o6Fe1tion that a possi6"e
person 1annot 6e the re1ipient oB harmC he ?o)"d sti"" need to ar<)e that this harm is mora""8 si<niBi1ant# Whether or not @are is a6"e
to ans?er these o6Fe1tionsC his mora" theor8 sti"" s)pports his <enera" position on possi6"e peop"eIname"8C that ?e are 1eteris pari6)s
mora""8 6o)nd to 6rin< happ8 peop"e Nand a:oid 6rin<in< misera6"e peop"eO into e-isten1e# 7an8 peop"e Bind it int)iti:e"8 p"a)si6"e
that ?e ha:e no o6"i<ations to 6rin< possi6"e peop"e into the ?or"dIat "east not an8 o6"i<ations to them# The8 ?o)"d endorse the
a1t)a"it8 restri1tion on mora" 1onsideration NhereaBter a66re:iated RO G1HC ?hi1h sa8s that on"8 a1t)a" peop"e ?arrant mora"
1onsideration N?here Ja1t)a" peop"eK is meant to in1")de presentC B)t)reC and perhaps past peop"eO G2H# R# 7# @are thinks other?iseC
1"aimin< that mora" de"i6eration sho)"d take into a11o)nt the preBeren1es oB possi6"e peop"e andC more 1ontro:ersia""8C that it
1an harm a mere"8 possi6"e person to ha:e 6een denied e-isten1e G%H# .t has 6een remarked that @are is pro6a6"8 the paradi<m
deBender oB this sort oB :ie? and ma8 6e the in:entor oB the on"8 <en)ine ar<)ment Bor it G*H# .n this essa8C . ha:e t?o o6Fe1ti:es# !irstC
. ana"8ze @ares positi:e ar<)ment Bor o)r o6"i<ation to pro1reateC sho?in< ho? the ar<)ment Bai"s to 1ha""en<e the proponent oB R#
(e1ondC . raise some o6Fe1tions to @ares 1"aim that a mere"8 possi6"e person 1an 6e harmed# ,:en iB these o6Fe1tions 1annot 6e
ans?eredC @ares mora" theor8 ne:erthe"ess s)pports his <enera" position on possi6"e peop"e# @is 1on1eption oB mora" thinkin< ma8
<ro)nd an o6"i<ationC 1eteris pari6)sC to 6rin< happ8 peop"e into the ?or"d# .# The r<)ment !or 4)r 46"i<ation to Possi6"e Peop"e a#
The r<)ment @are has oBBered diBBerent Borm)"ations oB his ar<)ment# 4ne makes )se oB the Go"den R)"eC ?ith some s"i<ht
modiBi1ations# The modiBi1ations pro1eed as Bo""o?s3 Go"den R)"e3 We sho)"d do to others as ?e ?ish them to do to )s# !irst
:ariant3 We sho)"d do to others as ?e ?ish the8 had done to )s# (e1ond :ariant3 We sho)"d do to others ?hat ?e are <"ad
?as done to )s# G+H Pro:ided that one is ?i""in< to a11ept the Go"den R)"e and its :ariantsC the ar<)ment is this3 iB ?e are
<"ad that someone 6ro)<ht )s into e-isten1eC then ?e sho)"d do the same Bor others# 7ost peop"e ?ho "ead happ8 "i:es are
<"ad that the8 ?ere 1on1ei:edC so the8 sho)"dC 1eteris pari6)sC render this same 6eneBit to possi6"e peop"e ?hen it is in their
po?er to do so# se1ond Borm)"ation is 1ast in terms oB the )ni:ersa"iza6i"it8 oB mora" F)d<ments# (a8 8o) ask a person to make
a mora" assessment oB Jthe a1tions oB those ?ho 6ro)<ht him into e-isten1e 68 6e<ettin<C 1on1ei:in< and not a6ortin<
himK G6H# .B he rep"ies that his parents did ?hat the8 mora""8 o)<ht to ha:e doneC then he has made a mora" F)d<ment# @are
1an no? sho? thatC on pain oB :io"atin< the "o<i1 oB mora" termsC he m)st app"8 this F)d<ment to a"" re"e:ant"8 simi"ar
sit)ations G0H# 9n"ike the Go"den R)"e :ersion ?hi1h makes reBeren1e to JothersK G8HC this ar<)ment has the :irt)e oB
takin< attention oBB oB possi6"e peop"e and Bo1)sin< more on a1tions# .B . <i:e a positi:e mora" appraisa" oB m8 ha:in< 6een
1on1ei:ed Nno matter ho? m8 pre-e-istent state is 1ashed o)tOC . 1annot 1onsistent"8 <i:e a diBBerent appraisa" oB the re"e:ant"8 simi"ar
sit)ation oB someone e"se 6ein< 1on1ei:ed# @ares ar<)ment ?orks A)ite ?e"" ?hen dea"in< ?ith those ?ho ?o)"d in1onsistent"8 treat
their o?n 1on1eption as mora""8 <ood and others 1on1eptions as mora""8 indiBBerent# 5)t the person ?ho ans?ers that his parents
did as the8 mora""8 o)<ht to ha:e done ma8 a"read8 1on1ede the :er8 point in disp)teIname"8C that a possi6"e person
?arrants mora" 1onsideration G9H# This is pre1ise"8 ?hat R denies# .B @ares ar<)ment is to ha:e an8 ?ei<ht a<ainst an R-
proponent Nor an8one e"seO ?ho 1onsistent"8 denies that the interests oB a possi6"e person 1an <ro)nd an o6"i<ation to pro1reateC
neither he nor his h8potheti1a" inter"o1)tor 1an ass)me this point# @is ar<)ment m)st s)11eed ?hen a person ho"ds ?hat @are 1a""s the
Jamora"ist positionK G10H#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
60/68
2NC EXTINCTION RHETORIC GOOD
Tal$ing a#out the possi#ility o! e.tinction is vital to strategies to prevent it
0and#erg, )atheny and Cir$ovic, ,nders (and6er<C Lames 7artin Resear1h !e""o? at the !)t)re oB @)manit8 .nstit)te
at 4-Bord 9ni:ersit8C postdo1tora" resear1h assistant Bor the ,9 ,nhan1e proFe1tQ Lason G# 7athen8C Ph2 1andidate in @ea"th
Po"i18 and 7ana<ement at Lohns @opkins 5"oom6er< (1hoo" oB P)6"i1 @ea"thC spe1ia" 1ons)"tant to the &enter Bor 5iose1)rit8
at the 9ni:ersit8 oB Pitts6)r<h 7edi1a" &enter and 1o-Bo)nder oB $e? @ar:estC and 7i"an 7# dirko:ieC senior resear1h
asso1iate at the stronomi1a" 46ser:ator8 oB 5e"<radeC assistant proBessor oB ph8si1s at the 9ni:ersit8 oB $o:i (ad in (er6ia
and 7ontene<roQ J@o? &an We Red)1e the Risk oB @)man ,-tin1tionK http3//the6)""etin#or</?e6-edition/Beat)res/ho?-1an-
?e-red)1e-the-risk-oB-h)man-e-tin1tion ((
Perhaps "east 1ontro:ersia"C ?e sho)"d in:est more in eBBorts to en)merate the risks to h)man s)r:i:a" and the means to miti<ate them#
We need more interdis1ip"inar8 resear1h in A)antitati:e risk assessmentC pro6a6i"it8 theor8C and te1hno"o<8 Bore1astin< # nd
?e need to 6)i"d a ?or"d?ide 1omm)nit8 oB e-perts Brom :ario)s Bie"ds 1on1erned a6o)t <"o6a" 1atastrophi1 risks# @)man
e-tin1tion ma8C in the "on< r)nC 6e ine:ita6"e# 5)t F)st as ?e ?ork to se1)re a "on< "iBe Bor indi:id)a"sC e:en ?hen o)r e:ent)a"
death is ass)redC ?e sho)"d ?ork to se1)re a "on< "iBe Bor o)r spe1ies#
Chetoric o! !ear is necessary to mo#ili@e preventative action against catastrophe 'I;0 proves.
Aiddens N2J Nnthon8Q ser:ed as 2ire1tor oB the London (1hoo" oB ,1onomi1s and Po"iti1a" (1ien1e NL(,O Brom 1990 to 200%#
Pre:io)s"8 a !e""o? and ProBessor oB (o1io"o<8 at ;in<Rs &o""e<eC &am6rid<e# JR)na?a8 ?or"d 3 ho? <"o6a"ization is reshapin< o)r
"i:esK 2000Q pg 2M-2+O //)A
.n these 1ir1)mstan1esC there is a ne? mora" 1"imate oB po"iti1sC marked 68 a p)sh and p)"" 6et?een a11)sations oB s1aremon<erin< the
one handC and oB 1o:er-)ps on the other# .B an8one -<o:ernment oBBi1ia"C s1ientiBi1 e-pert or resear1her -takes a <i:en risk serio)s"8C he
or she m)st pro1"aim it# .t m)st 6e ?ide"8 p)6"i1ised 6e1a)se peop"e m)st 6e pers)aded that the risk is rea"-a B)ss m)st 6e made a6o)t
it# Eet iB a B)ss is indeed 1reated and the risk t)rns o)t to 6e minima"C those in:o":ed ?i"" 6e a11)sed oB s1aremon<erin<#
()pposeC ho?e:erC that the a)thorities initia""8 de1ide that the risk is not :er8 <reatC as the 5ritish <o:ernment did in the 1ase oB
1ontaminated 6eeB# .n this instan1eC the <o:ernment Birst oB a"" said3 ?eR:e <ot the 6a1kin< oB s1ientists
hereQ there isnRt a si<niBi1ant riskC and an8one ?ho ?ants to 1an 1ontin)e eatin< 6eeB ?itho)t an8 ?orries# .n s)1h sit)ationsC iB e:ents
t)rn o)t other?ise -as in Ba1t the8 did -the a)thorities ?i"" 6e a11)sed oB a 1o:er-)p-as indeed the8 ?ere#
Thin<s are e:en more 1omp"e- than these e-amp"es s)<<est# Parado-i1a""8C scaremongering may #e necessary to reduce ris$s we
!ace -8et iB it is s)11essB)"C it appears as F)st thatC s1aremon<erin<# The 1ase oB .2( is an e-amp"e#
Go:ernments and e-perts made <reat p)6"i1 p"a8 ?ith the risks asso1iated ?ith )nsaBe se-C to <et peop"e to 1han<e their se-)a"
6eha:io)r# Part"8 as a 1onse A)en1eC in the de:e"oped 1o)ntriesC .2( did not spread as m)1h as ?as ori<ina""8 predi1ted# Then the
response ?as3 ?h8 ?ere 8o) s1arin< e:er8one "ike that? Eet as ?e kno? Brom its 1ontin)in< <"o6a" spreadC the8 ?ere -and are
-entire"8 ri<ht to do so#
This sort oB parado- 6e1omes ro)tine in 1ontemporar8 so1iet8C 6)t there is no easi"8 a:ai"a6"e ?a8 oB dea"in< ?ith it# !or as .
mentioned ear"ierC in most sit)ations oB man)Ba1t)red riskC e:en ?hether there are risks at a"" is "ike"8 to 6e disp)ted# We 1annot kno?
6eBorehand ?hen ?e are a1t)a""8 s1aremon<erin< and ?hen ?e are not#
Whats the Risk?
Gonzo and Lison
68/68
1NC AT: EXPERTS FRAMEWORK
1.perts #ad they aren(t any #etter at predictions than chance
Co#erts 2 Be""o? ?ith the Pro<ram on &onstit)tiona" Go:ernment at @ar:ardC assistant proBessor oB .nternationa" BBairs at Pir<inia
Te1hC Ph2 in <o:ernment Brom the 9ni:ersit8 oB Pir<inia and has 6een a postdo1tora" Be""o? at the &enter Bor .nternationa" (e1)rit8
and &ooperation at (tanBord
GPatri1kC U&atastrophe3 Risk and ResponseCU @ome"and (e1)rit8 BBairsC http3//???#hsaF#or</?B)""arti1"e=*#1#+H 7&
Re1ent ?ork in 6eha:iora" e1onomi1s sho?s that peop"e ha:e tro)6"e 1a"1)"atin< risks# The8 oBten ?i"d"8 o:er- or )nder-estimate
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7ost histori1a""8 important e:ents are impossi6"e to predi1t ?ith 1onBiden1e#
1.perts overstate the pro#a#ility and overloo$ variations
Tale# M (1ho"arC ,ssa8istC P)6"i1 .nte""e1t)a"C (tatisti1ianC Risk ,n<ineer and Trader
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so1ia" matters#
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1omp"i1ated mathemati1a" mode"s# The8 are a"so more "ike"8 to ?ear a tie#

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