ScienceReporter Jan 2014

GIST OF SCIENCE REPORTER VOL13 53
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G ist of
SCIENCE REPORTER
EARTH & MOON, A REVIEW
We all become familiar with the Moon right
from our childhood days. We its changing phases. We
see the dark markings on its face, which resemble
different things to different eyes. Some people see in
t he dark markings a figure of a woman wit h t he
spinning wheel, while in many west ern countries
people see the face of a man or a hare.
One of the few astronomical bodies in the sky
t hat can be observed wit hout any optical aid, the
Moon was enshrouded in myst ery f or much of
history. Earlier, it was revered as a ref lection of gods
and goddesses. It was even viewed as another planet
wit h seas and l and. Event ual ly, Gali leo and hi s
telescope got a picture of what we know the Moon
t o be t odaya nat ural sat ellit e wit h mount ains,
craters and expanses of f lat plains.
The comi ng of t he Space Age has t urned
ar ound our i deas about our nearest cel est i al
neighbour. Today, t he Moon no longer holds any
myst ery for us. Ext ensive expl orat ion by space
probes and astronauts has unravelled new facts not
only about the Moon, but also about the past history
of our Earth and the Solar System.
A Unique Satellite
Of the eight planets of the solar system two
planets, Mercury and Venus, do not have any moon
of their own. Of t he rest, our Earth has t he least
number of moons - only one, compared to a total of
168 moons di scovered f or t he remai ni ng f i ve
planets.
But Eart hs only Moon has no parallel in the
solar system. With a diameter of 3,476 kilometres,
our Moon is smaller than four other moons of the
solar system. Three of the Galilean moons of Jupiter
are bigger than Earths Moon, as is Saturns moon
Titan. But if we compare our Moons diameter with
the Earths diameter of 12,756 kilometres, the Moon
is just about one-t hird t he size of t he Eart h. The
sol ar syst ems l argest moon Ganymede, wi t h a
diameter of 5,276 kilometres, is only about 1/ 26th
the size of its mother planet Jupiter.
The Earth is about 81 times as massive as its
only moon, whereas the masses of the other planets
are several thousand to a million times the masses of
their moons. At least in t his sense, t he Earth and
Moon seem more like a double planet system rather
t han a planet and it s satellit e. In fact , planet ary
scientists consider the Eart h and the Moon going
round a common point called barycentre that lies
1,710 kilometres below the surface of the Earth.
Another peculiarity of the Moon is its distance
from Earth, which is far greater than is the case for
some moons of t he other planets relat ive to their
radii. The mean distance of the Moon from Earth is
3,85,000 kilometres, which is sixty times the radius
of Eart h. This is more t han double t he dist ance
bet ween Jupiter and its out ermost moon Callisto;
almost three times the distance between Uranus and
it s out ermost moon Oberon; and four t imes t he
distance from Neptune to its large moon Triton.
However, despi t e i t s l arge di st ance f rom
Earth, the relatively large mass of the Moon exerts
enough gravitational pull on Earth to cause visible
effects. The main visible effects are the ocean tides,
which make the ocean waters rise and fall twice a day
under t he i nf luence of t he Moons gravit y. The
gravity of the Sun also influences ocean tides, but not
as strongly as the Moon, and peak tides depend on
the position of the Sun, winds, and rotation of the
Earth. Sometimes the gravitational pull of the Sun
54 VOL13 GIST OF SCIENCE REPORTER
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and Moon work together to produce very high tides
(spring tides) and sometimes they work against each
other to produce low tides (neap tides).
The large size of our Moon also plays a decisive
role in sustaining life on Earth. On Earth we have the
seasons because of the tilt of Earths axis, which is at
present 23.5 degrees. Were it not for the Moon, the
inf luence of t he giant planets Jupiter and Saturn
would have made the tilt of Earths axis vary wildly -
between values as extreme as 0 to 80 degrees. Such
variat i on woul d probabl y have caused ext reme
cli mat ic changes t hat woul d render our pl anet
uninhabitable. Thus, having a large Moon may be a
boon for us - without it life may not have evolved on
Earth.
The Origin of the Moon
The Moon has been going round the Earth for
an estimated 4,500 billion years or so, but planetary
scientists have no clear explanation of where it came
from yet. Till the mid-1970s, there were three main
theories regarding the origin of the Moon. The first
theory postulates an event in which the Moon broke
off from a rapidly spinning Earth. The second theory
proposed t hat t he Eart h and Moon were formed
together as a gravitationally bound pair. The third
t heory suggest ed t hat t he Moon formed as an
i ndependent pl anet ary body t hat was l at er
captured by the Earth during a close pass. None of
these theories could explain all the observed facts
about the Moon. A new theory was required.
In 1975 and 1976, t wo t eams of American
scientists working with Moon rocks independently
made a bold suggestion - that perhaps the Moon had
indeed been a part of the Earth! W.K. Hartmann and
A.G.W. Cameron proposed t hat t he Moon was
formed in a catastrophic collision between the Earth
and another body, one roughly t he size of Mars,
about 4,530 million years ago when the Earth was
st ill not ful ly formed. Thi s i dea has come t o be
known as the Giant Impact hypothesis.
The giant impact hypot hesis could explain
many features of the Moon, particularly its size. It
could also explain the inclination of the Moons orbit
towards the Earths equator, similarity of its chemical
composi t i on t o t he Ear t hs mant l e, and many
physical characteristics. Since the Moon was formed
out of mat erial thrown out from the Eart hs outer
layers after heavy elements like iron and nickel had
sunk to the core, its density of 3.34 is about the same
as that of Earths mantle and it has little iron. The
giant impact hypothesis also could explain why the
Earths axis is tilted.
One Moon from Two
A unique feat ure of t he Moon is t he st ark
dif ference bet ween it s visi ble near side and t he
invisible far side. The familiar hemisphere facing
Earth is covered by low, lava-filled plains (seen as
darker grey areas on the Moons face). The far side,
which is never visible from Earth, is a collection of
rugged, mount ai nous hi ghl ands. The st ri ki ng
differences between the near and far sides of t he
Moon have been a longstanding puzzle. Till recently,
scientists had long held that the Earths gravity and
impact s by foreign bodies were t o blame for t he
variance, but they did not have any definite clue as
to why it is so.
I n 2011, a st udy publ i shed i n t he journal
Nature suggested that the reason the Moon appears
so differently from one side to the next is because at
one time it was two separate objects. According to a
study by planet ary scient ist s at the University of
California, Santa Cruz, USA, the mountainous region
on the far side of the Moon, known as the lunar far
side highlands, may be the solid remains of a collision
with a smaller companion moon, which orbited the
Earth along with the Moon we see today, some 4.5
billion years ago, when the Earth was still forming.
The new study builds on the giant impact
model f or t he origin of t he Moon, according t o
which a Mars-sized object collided with Earth early in
the history of the solar system and kicked up a ring
of debris around the Eart h t hat later coalesced to
form the Moon. This model adequately explains the
similarity in composition of the Eart hs crust and
Moon rocks.
The new st udy suggest ed t hat t his gi ant
impact also created another, smaller body, initially
sharing an orbit with the Moon. These objects then
individually orbit ed the Eart h on a slow collision
course t oward each other. Eventually t he smaller
companion fell back onto the Moon and coated one
si de wi t h an ext ra l ayer of sol i d crust t ens of
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kilometres thick. Ast rophysicist s M. Jut zi and E.
Asphaug used computer simulat ions of an impact
between the Moon and a smaller companion (about
one-t hi rd t he si ze of t he Moon) t o st udy t he
dynamics of the collision and track the evolution and
di st ri but i on of l unar mat erial in it s af t ermat h.
According to them, in such a low-velocity collision,
the impact does not form a crater and does not cause
much melting. Instead, most of the colliding material
is piled onto the impacted hemisphere as a thick new
layer of solid crust, forming a mountainous region
comparable in extent to the lunar far side highlands.
An attractive feature of the new model is that
it neatly explains why the near and far sides of the
Moon are not only different in topography but also
i n composi t i on. Several si t es on t he near si de
sampl ed by Apol l o ast ronaut s had rocks
comparatively rich in KREEP - for potassium (K), rare
eart h element s (REE), and phosphorus (P). But
KREEP is scarce on the lunar far side, as it would be
if t he collidi ng moonlet had pushed t he cooling
magma ocean and its KREEP on the st ill-forming
Moon to the lunar near side.
Mascons
In the 1960s, as ASA officials were planning for
the Apollo moon missions, they discovered strange
gravitational anomalies on the Moon, which came to
be known as mascons. Shor t f or mass
concent rat ions, t hey are so dense t hey alt er t he
Moons gravity field. This causes perturbations that
can t ug a spacecraft lower in it s orbit around the
Moon, or push it wildly off course, whi ch made
l andi ng on Ear t hs nearest nei ghbour a t r i cky
challenge. At that time, nothing was known about
what these mascons were or how they were formed.
The mystery was solved only recently from data sent
back by NASAs twin Gravity Recovery and Interior
Laborat ory (GRAIL) probes - a pair of spacecraft
called Ebb and Flow - that meticulously mapped the
Moons gravitational field and ended their year-long
gravit y-mapping mi ssion i n December 2012 by
crashing into the Moon.
LIVING ON THE MOON
The idea of living on the moon captures the imagination. Even before the first human set foot
on t he lunar surface during NASAs Apollo program in 1969, people around the world were
dreaming about a permanent moon base to colonize Earths closest celestial object.
It might sound like something set firmly in the realm of fantasy, but experts in private industry
and governments around the world are trying to understand how feasible it would be to establish
a lunar base.
Some scientists think humans could
survive comfortably on the moon. In some ways, the very minimal gravity of the moon might
act ual ly be more conducive t o li fe t han t he microgravit y ast ronaut s experience on t he
International Space Station.
Although it hasnt been formally tested, some expert s hypot hesize that t he small amount of
gravitational force put on an astronaut s body when on the moon could help stem some of the
adverse effects like bone-density and muscle loss that spacef lvers experience while living in
microgravity on the International Space Station. This could make colonizing the moon an even
more appealing option.
A robotic base: The first step in establishing a moon base might be robotic. Once unmanned
missions establish the beginnings of a base, humans can launch to the lunar surface to conduct
research and maintain the habitat. There is no permanent residence except in the sense of
rotating crews. Just like the International Space Station, the lunar base would require crews of
four to eight people to rotate in and out of the base
3D printing of lunar laboratory: A European Space Agency (ESA) study found that 3D printing
of lunar base using material already available on the moon could be a practical way to establish
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an outpost on Earths nearest cosmic neighbour.
Under the ESAs hypothetical plan, a robotic mission to the moon could do most of the work
before astronauts ever needed to set foot on the lunar surface.
A robot would conduct the 3D-printing program autonomously. The robot would use a mixture
of lunar dirt and dust , called regolith, to cover an inf latable dome wit h layers of the robust
material. By using the moons indigenous material, space agencies can save money on the cost of
f lying pricey missions to and from the moons surface.
Mining the moon: Once on the moon, inst ead of having t o stage cost ly missions aimed at
delivering oxygen and other necessary volatiles from Earth, experts might be able to actually use
mined lunar material to manufacture gasses needed to sustain life on the satellite.
Water could also be used for radiation protection on the exposed lunar surface. The moon has
no atmosphere, so people would be completely susceptible to the radiation that would bombard
the rocky satellite every day. Water manufactured on the moon could help shield lunar lifers from
those effects.
From the moon to Mars: Eventually, a base on the moon could lead to human exploration in
deeper parts of the solar system. By developing vehicles and space transportation systems that
can ent er and remain in the area bet ween t he Eart h and t he moon (called cislunar space),
scientists can use that in-between space as a staging and fueling ground for a mission to Mars.
The moon base could function as a good proxy for these kinds of missions by monitoring how
an aut onomous habit at on anot her celest i al body funct ions. Engineers mi ght be able t o
manufacture propellant for deep-space travel using the natural resources the moon has to offer.
When the propellant is created, it can be sent to cislunar space to help fuel spaceships ready to
depart for other areas of the solar system and beyond.
By mapping t he Moons gravi t y f iel d, t he
GRAIL probes uncovered t he locat ions of lunar
mascons, and offered unprecedented views of t he
structure of the Moons interior. This melting caused
t he mat eri al t o become denser and more
concentrated. This enabled scientists to study two
basins one on the lunar near side and one on the far
si de of t he Moon - t o devel op sophi st i cat ed
computer models for how mascons form.
They determined that ancient asteroid impacts
excavat ed l arge crat ers on t he Moon, causi ng
surrounding lunar mat erials and rocks from t he
Moons mant l e t o mel t and col l apse i nward.
According to NASA scient ists, mascons, which are
invisible on the surface but appear in gravity maps as
a sort of bulls- eye, arise as a natural consequence of
crater excavation, collapse and cooling following an
impact . The cent re of t he bulls-eye has st ronger
gravity, with a ring of weaker gravity surrounding the
bulls-eye, and then another ring of st rong gravity
surrounding the bulls-eye and inner ring.
This new understanding of lunar mascons is
expected to influence knowledge of planetary geology
beyond that of Earth and our Moon.
Water on Moon
Despite more than sixty exploratory missions
including six manned missions to the Moon, it was
not known till 2008 that there was water on Moon.
Indias first mission to Moon - Chandrayaan-I - was
launched on 22 October 2008 on a two- year orbital
mission to the Moon. It made the first significant
discovery soon after it reached lunar orbit on 14
November and dropped the Moon Impact Probe on
the lunar surface.
As t he probe descended, i t s inst rument s
detected evidence of water, which was subsequently
cor roborat ed by ot her i nst r ument s on board
Chandrayaan-1 and also ot her probes. Before it s
untimely demise in August 2009, fourteen months
ahead of its planned end of mission, Chandrayaan-1
had sent back heaps of val uabl e dat a and
photographs that revealed for the first time that our
Moon indeed has water. This was contrary to earlier
beliefs that the Moon is bone dry.
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Early studies on the lunar samples returned by
the Apollo missions had revealed t otal absence of
the water- bearing primary minerals such as gypsum,
chalcant hite, epsomit e, melanterite, etc. t hat are
common in Earth rocks; instead all the Moon rocks
examined were composed ent irely of anhydrous
minerals. Chandrayaan-1 gave data for the first time
of the presence of water on Moon.
I n Oct ober 2009, NASAs Lunar CRat er
Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS), which
studied the dust plume created by the impact of a
Centaur upper stage rocket, further confirmed the
presence of water on Moon. Analysis of data from
t he sat ellite from its crash int o t he permanently
shadowed region of Cabeus crater near the Moons
Sout h Pole on 9 Oct ober 2009 showed a t ell-t ale
si gnat ure of wat er. The i mpact creat ed by t he
LCROSS Centaur upper stage rocket created a two-
part plume of mat erial f rom t he bot t om of t he
crat er. The first part was a high-angle plume of
vapour and fine dust and the second part was a lower
angle ejecta curtain of heavier material, which had
not seen sunlight in billions of years. The LCROSS
science t eam analysed dat a f rom t he sat ell it es
spect rometers, which provide the most definitive
information about the presence of water.
At a pr ess conf erence on 13 November,
researchers revealed preliminary data from LCROSS,
indicat ing that water does exist in a permanent ly
shadowed lunar crater. An infrared spectrometer on
LCROSS had recorded absorpt ion bands of water
vapour at wavelengt hs of 1.4 and 1.85 microns.
Anot her spect r omet er r egi st er ed ul t ravi ol et
emissi on at 309 nanomet res, a t ell -t ale sign of
hydroxyl radicals creat ed when water molecules
break apart in ultraviolet radiation from the Sun.
Subsequent analysis of the data on lunar water
showed the presence of vast pocket s of water ice
amounting to millions of tonnes at the North Pole of
the Moon, opening up another region of the lunar
surface for potential exploration by astronauts and
unmanned probes. According to NASA sources, the
emerging picture from the multiple measurements
and result ing dat a of t he inst rument s on l unar
missions indicates that wat er creation, migration,
deposition and retention are occurring on the Moon.
Are Lunar Colonies possible?
Mankind has dreamed of building colonies on
the Moon for ages. Before the first humans set foot
on the Moon in the late 1960s, such ideas were seen
as part of science fiction stories. However, now some
people believe lunar settlements may soon become
realit y, as evident from t he recent resurgence in
Moon missions. The finding of water is crucial for
future manned missions t o t he Moon, which are
expect ed t o be aimed at set t ing up some sort of
permanent bases there.
However, before bases can be set up on Moon,
several hurdles need to be overcome. Till now, the
longest time ast ronauts have spent on Moon is a
lit t le over t hree days. For t heir survival on t his
mission, they had carried all their daily needs from
Eart h. But if ast ronaut s have t o spend weeks or
months on the Moon, they will need to make some
arrangements to get some essential provisions on the
Moon itself.
The mai n pr obl em wi t h set t i ng up a
permanent base on t he Moon is t he lack of ai r,
water, and food. The Moon lacks light elements, such
as carbon and nit rogen, alt hough t here is some
evidence of hydrogen being present near the Polar
Regions. There is plenty of oxygen on the Moon, but
it is all bound up in minerals in t he lunar soil. It
would require complex indust rial infrast ruct ure,
using very high energy, to extract oxygen from lunar
soi l . Since many ot her element s are needed t o
produce breathable air, water, food, and rocket fuel,
they would all need to be imported from Earth until
cheaper sources are developed on t he Moon. Till
t hen, astronaut s would be able t o stay at a lunar
base for short periods only.
Despite the many problems, there are many
advantages of a lunar base. It can provide an excellent
site for setting up astronomical observatories. The
Int ernat ional Lunar Explorat ion Working Group
(ILEWG), which provides a platform for coordinating
lunar exploration activities by all the space agencies
of the world, visualises a human base on the Moon
in the next decade.
NASA has already drawn up plans to construct
a solar-powered base at one of the Moons poles. The
regions around Moons poles are believed to remain
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in near constant sunlight, which should allow for
solar power generation.
The current pl an of NASA i s t o begi n
construction of a base beginning in 2020, with four-
person crews maki ng seven-day vi sit s unt il al l
arrangement s are complet e and meet t hei r b c
requi rement s. The l unar base i s exp. t o be
permanently staffed by 2024!
MEANING OF GAME THEORY
The allotment of electromagnet ic spectrum
has been in t he news recent ly for all t he wrong
reasons. The procedure and the intention have both
been called into question. Are there better ways to
allot electromagnetic spectrum?
Wel l , Game Theor y has been rout i nel y
employed by the United States government to allot
2G and 3G spect r um i n t hei r count r y. Game
t heory has time and again proved to be t he best
way to solve such critical issues.
You are often using game theory in real life,
although sometimes you may not be aware of it. If
you are a teenager addicted to computer games then
you are really watching game theory at work on your
Xbox, Ni nt endo and Playbox screens. How are
complex strategy games like The Game of Thrones
and Age of Empires, which count on players making
smart moves, developed?
Venturing into the corporat e world, how do
businesses and business magnates take acquisition
decisions and decisions involving thousands of crores
of rupees? Are they merely based on the mood of the
company CEO? Or does painstaking research go into
such decisions?
Why are the products of Microsoft and Apple
most liked? What tools do these companies employ
t o make good decisions in t he i nt erest of t heir
company?
The answer t o all t hese questions is Game
Theory. It is also often used in strategizing foreign
pol i ci es or even for t aki ng cri t i cal modern day
military decisions.
Game theory is a classic mathematical model
of analysing real world problems. It was proposed by
legendary mathematician Dr. John von Neumann. It
i s one of t he most i mport ant t ool s used by
corporations, governments, militaries and computer
game designers t hese days for st rat egic decision
making in real life as well as real life-like situations.
Game theory is called into play whenever there
are several players whose actions are interdependent.
It is the genesis of revolutionary changes in economic
theory, the study of evolution and biology and has
recently been applied in the automobile industry as
well.
The fields of sociology and psychology also
have dedicated streams for creating datasets using
game t heor y. Dur i ng onl i ne auct i on of radi o
spect r um l i censes by Amer i cas Federal
Communi cat i ons Commi ssi on i n 2006, Paul
Mi l grom, professor at St anf ord Uni versi t y,
customized his game-theory software to help some
of the bidders.
When t he auct i on st ar t ed, Dr Mi l groms
software followed the competitors bids to find the
approximate value of their budget s for the 1,132
licenses on offer.
The soft ware cal culat ed t he secret values
ot her companies placed on specific licenses and
found that certain big licenses were being overvalued,
helping Dr Milgrams clients to obtain an advantage
of smaller, less Lpensive licenses instead. Two of his
clients, Time Warner and Comcast, paid about a third
less than their competitors for equivalent spectrum,
saving almost $1.2 billion.
The key aspect s of game t heory revol ve
around identification of process participants, their
various quantifiable options (choices), consideration
of their preferences and subsequent reactions. If all
these factors are carefully thought of, then the task
of modelling the problem by game theory along with
identifications of all possible sit uat ions becomes
easier. The problem is labelled as a game. Some of
the assumptions that this theory makes about the
players stakeholders or various participant s
making individual decision is that there are more
than one player and all players shall make rational
choices. This is necessary and expect ed because if
CEOs start making irrational decisions then it s just
not him but the entire organisation that suffers a
loss. Alt hough t his assumpt ion does not hold at
times as we shall see later while discussing observed
behaviour.
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But , what do you call a rational decision? A
person is said to be rational if he tries to maximize
results in his favour considering t he st rat egy and
actions of his opponents. Think of Darwins theory.
In t he past fift y years of it s development ,
Game Theory has reached a st age where many
variants with differing assumptions have found place
in its light. In Cooperative Game Theory, the players
involved are divided by their individual power and
the payoffs (result/ outcome) are according to the
power division between players. This type of game
t heory is in sync wit h a Nash model in which the
division of gains from negot iat ions bet ween two
parties is determined by the power held by each and
this power is determined by a situation in which the
negotiations breakdown.
Think of coalition political parties tussling over
power sharing in government. Cooperative Game
Theory is often used in polit ics and int ernational
relations because, invariably, power plays a big role in
det ermi ni ng t he st r engt h of a nat i on. The
neoliberalism in international relations has greatly
benefitted from game theory. Consider the following
matrix created by Brian Martin in which the situation
is that US marines are already in Iraq fighting a war,
Iraq will not pull-out because of ideological reasons.
PAYOFF
MATRIX 1
USA
Escalate Negotiate Pullout

Escalate
Military
stalemate;
more killing
Military
advantage
to Iraq
Military
advantage
to Iraq
Iraq
Negotiate
Military
advantage
to Washington
Military and
political
stalemate; less
killing
Political
advantage
to Iraq
On an integer scale where positive values are
better than negative values and using some figures to
compare the value of the different outcomes to each
player, we might say that milit ary st alemate with
more killing was worth -1 to Iraq and -2 to USA, and
so forth, leading to the following matrix:
PAY OF MATRIX - 2 USA
Esclate Negoliate Pullout
Iraq Esclat e (-1, -2) (1, -3) (3, 5)
Negot i at e (-3, 1) (0, 0) (3, -3)
Rewriting the above matrix with only a single
payoff (as near as possible representing the payoffs
above), and using abstract symbols for the players
and choices, we obtain:
PAY OF MATRIX - 3 USA (A)
Esclate(A1) Negoliate(A2) Pullout (A3)
Iraq(B)Esclate(B1) 0 2 4
Negotiate(B2) -1 0 3
If player A chooses A2 and player B chooses
B1, then the payoff to B is 2 and the payoff to A is -
2. This is called a zero-sum game, because any gain to
A is a loss to B, and vice versa.
In the words of Brian Martin, If we assume
that each player has a goal, then we may attempt to
prescribe actions which will realise it. Game theory
prescribes courses of act ion for the att ainment of
out comes whi ch have cert ain f ormal opt imum
properties. It does not say what a person should do
in an absolute sense; it is not descriptive, but rather
conditionally normative.
Si mply put , if t he problem i s t hat you are
feeli ng t he heat on a humi d summer day, game
theory wont say switch on t he Air Condit ioner,
but it will present a comparative scenario between
AC, Cooler and Fan.
Anot her form of Game Theory is the Non-
Cooperat ive Game Theory. This t heor y shift s it s
focus from power to t iming. Here factors such as
ordering of players (as in F1 race) and timing playa
larger role than the power held by the players. This
theory works very well when the power held by each
player is equal and every player can make equally
significant impact on payoff.
Anot her f or m of Game Theory i s t he
Coalitional model, where the payoffs of a group or
coalit ion take precedence over individual players
payoff. Assume a recently concluded election in which
no individual political party has majority to form a
government. This model can actually analyse and
find the best group or coalition so that the payoffs
are maximised. This is different from co-operative
model in the sense that here even a small individual
political party can enjoy more power and inf luence
t han a larger part y. The only t hing t hat is never
disclosed is the process of negotiations by which the
individual players formed a group or coalition.
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Many Public Relation agencies, marketing firms
and direct selling firms use elements of Game Theory
t o narrow down t hei r t arget consumer base. I t
improves their focus area by giving a relatively clearer
picture of the methods that can be employed to deal
with customers.
An international program run by the US secret
service agencies known as Prism uses a software
model based on Game Theor y t o ascert ai n
predictability of terrorist activities, identities and
their possible locations. The program gathers data
f rom numerous sources such as i nt ernat i onal
Internet gateways, satellites, social networking sites,
emails, chats and messengers. The data is then fed
i nt o t he progr am t o cr eat e a spect rum of
information about possible terrorist attacks in USA
and elsewhere. The mathematical analysis of Game
Theor y is ver y subject ive. Games like Prisoners
Dilemma, Centipede Game, Browers fixed-point
theorem, Extensive, Normal and Cooperative Games,
Zero Sum and Non Zero Sum Games, Symmetric and
non-symmet r i c Games have expanded t he
boundaries of Game Theory in the last two decades,
but have gained critics as well.
Game Theory is regarded by it s crit ics as a
work of limited practical use. Some mathematicians
argue t hat t here are bet t er t ools t o analyse t he
complex problem. Many scientists have pointed out
that the very foundation of Game Theory, which is
based on rat i onal it y and i nt ell igence, i s f l awed
because it is commonl y seen t hat peopl e make
irrational decisions.
BRIEF HISTORY OF GAME THEORY
The mat hemat ical t heory of games was first developed by John von Neumann and Oskar
Morgenstern in the 1940s, but its applicability was limit ed to parlor games. John Nash, t he
subject of the 2001 Oscar-winning movie A Beautiful Mind transformed game theory into a more
general tool t hat enabled the analysis of win-win and lose-lose scenarios, as well as win-lose
sit uations. Nash enabled game theory to address a central question: should we compete or
cooperate?
Game Theory remains at the cutting edge of economic theory, with game theorists winning the
Nobel Prize in Economics in 1994, 1996, 2005, 2007 and 2012. For his path-breaking dissertation
that revolutionized economics and many other disciplines, John Nash won the Nobel in 1994, along
with game theorists John Harsanyi and Reinhard Selten. William Vickrey won the Nobel in 1996
for his pioneering work in incentives, asymmetric information, and auction theory, all crucial to
the advance of effective strategy in a world of influence -like chess, football, military strategy and
business.
Thomas Schelling and Robert Aumann won t he 2005 Nobel for their game-t heoret ic work in
conf lict and cooperation, including contributions on credible commitments and repeated games.
In the committees words, such contributions have made Game Theory the dominant approach
to the analysis of conf lict and cooperation.
Leonid Hurwicz, Eric Maskin and Roger Myerson won the 2007 Nobel prize for their work in
mechanism design theory, a branch of game theory that extends the application of game theory
to how different types of rules, or institutions, align individual incentives with overall social goals.
Their work on allocation mechanisms has had a significant impact on the design of auctions, social
welfare systems and many organizations. Most recently, in 2012, the Nobel was awarded to Lloyd
Shapley and Alvin Rot h for their work using Game Theory for economic engineering. Bot h
addressed how to match different agents as well as possible. Shapley used cooperative game theory
to study and compare different matching methods. Roth built on Shapleys theoretical work by
showing empirically the conditions for the functioning of important markets in practice, and he
demonst rat ed t hat st abilit y is t he key t o underst anding t he success of part icular market
institutions.
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SUCECESS OF BUENO DE MESQUITAS GAMES
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, an academic at New York University, has made some impressively
accurate political forecasts. In May 2010, he predicted that Egypt s president , Hosni Mubarak,
would fall from power within a year. Nine months later Mr Mubarak f led Cairo amid massive
street protests.
In February 2008, Mesquita predicted that Pakistans president , Pervez Musharraf, would leave
office by the end of summer. He was gone before September. Five years before the death of Irans
Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989, Bueno de Mesquita correctly named his successor, and, since then,
has made hundreds of prescient forecasts as a consultant both to foreign governments and to
Americas State Department , Pentagon and intelligence agencies.
What is the secret of his success? I dont have insights-the game does, he says. Mr. Bueno de
Mesquitas game is a computer model he developed that uses a branch of mathematics called
Game Theory, which is often used by economists to work out how events will unfold as people
and organizations act in what they perceive to be their best interests. Numerical values are placed
on the goals, motivations and inf luence of players - negotiators, business leaders, political
parties and organizations of all stripes, and, in some cases, their officials and supporters. The
computer model then considers the options open to the various players, determines their likely
course of action, evaluates their ability to influence others and hence predicts the course of events.
Mr Mubaraks influence, for example, waned as cuts in American aid threatened his ability to keep
cronies in t he army and securit y forces happy. Underemployed cit izens t hen realized t hat
disgruntled officials would be less willing to use violence to put down street protests against the
ailing dictator.
Bueno de Mesquita is also credited with accurate prediction for US Military of political impact of
moving an aircraft carrier close to North Korea.
Many at tribut e t he development s in Game
Theory t o over-ent husiastic economist s working
overtime t o creat e a mat hematical smoke screen.
Among the most vocal critics of Game Theory, Mr.
John Quiggin, professor of economics at James Cook
University, Australia points out that , ... the Game
Theory does work in isolated games such as chess or
poker where t he chances of repetition are few but
for infinitely- repeated games, the strategy space gets
very large, and the (in) famous Folk Theorem says,
roughly, that anything can happen. This is really just
the same problem in a different form.
Criticism notwithstanding, the game theory is
regarded as ext remel y usef ul by researchers in
polit ical science. Ant hony Downs in his book An
Economic Theory of Democracy (Downs 1957) applies
the Hotelling firm locat ion model to t he polit ical
process. Downs proposes t hat t he pol i t i cal
candidates will converge to the ideology preferred by
the median vot er if vot ers are fully informed, but
then argues that voters choose to remain rationally
ignorant which allows for a candidate to deviate from
his declared agenda.
In biology, the pay-offs are calculated in terms
of fitness. Biologists like Fisher, J. Maynard Smith and
Harper have used Game Theory to solve paradoxical
evolutionary problems of animal communication, kin
select i on and biological alt rui sm. In t he f ield of
computers, the Game Theory is the genesis of Multi-
Agent Syst ems, and has helped in development of
al gori t hms f or st ock market s, auct i ons and
interactive computer strategy games.
Several resear ch papers i n t he f i el d of
Behavioural Psychology owe t o t he Game Theor y.
The works of Sober, Wilson and Lewis used it t o
transform their datasets into descriptive results on
human at t i t ude and rat i onal i t y by usi ng Nash
Equilibrium.
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