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Electrical Engineering in Japan Volume 127 Issue 3 1999 [Doi 10.1002%2F%28sici%291520-6416%28199905%29127%3A3%3C1%3A%3Aaid-Eej1%3E3.0.Co%3B2-1] Takanobu Kosugi; Pyong Sik Pak; Yutaka Suzuki -- Evaluation of Output and Unit
Evaluation of Output and Unit Cost of Power Generation Systems Utilizing Solar
Energy Under Various Solar Radiation Conditions Worldwide
TAKANOBU KOSUGI, PYONG SIK PAK, and YUTAKA SUZUKI Osaka University, Japan SUMMARY Characteristics and economics of three power gen- eration systems which utilize solar energy were investi- gated and compared for systems located in five different regions. The three systems investigated were a solar thermal system, a solar photovoltaic system, and a CO 2 -capturing hybrid power generation system utilizing solar thermal energy (referred to as the hybrid system) which has been proposed by the authors. The net generated power energy and the net exergetic efficiency of the hybrid system have been estimated to be larger and higher, respectively, than those of the others. Economic evaluation reveals that the unit cost of generated power energy of the solar thermal system changes most widely corresponding to the change in solar radiation condition and that the cost of the hybrid system changes the least. In general, the most economical system has been estimated to be the solar thermal system in a location which is superior in solar condition and to be the hybrid system in a not so good solar condition. The solar photovoltaic system has the possibility of being the most economical if its construction cost is greatly improved, though the hybrid system is still the most economical under considerably worse solar conditions such as in Osaka. 1999 Scripta Technica, Electr Eng Jpn, 127(3): 1-12, 1999 Key words: Solar thermal system; solar photovol- taic system; CO2 -recovering hybrid power generation sys- tem; exergy. 1. Introduction In order to reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission from power generation plants, introducing power genera- tion systems utilizing natural energy such as solar energy is expected to be effective. As to the power generation systems utilizing solar energy, solar thermal power genera- tion and solar photovoltaic power generation are well known. Solar thermal power generation systems, e.g. SEGS, have already been operated commercially in loca- tions where the solar radiation condition is good [1]. With respect to solar photovoltaic power generation, the produc- tion capacity of photovoltaic modules has increased rapidly in the developed nations [2]. However, the solar energy which can be utilized on the ground depends on the region; and the worsening of economics due to a decrease in the capacity cannot be avoided for these solar-energy-utilizing systems in regions where the solar radiation condition is not good. Therefore, widespread introduction is difficult as long as drastic drops in construction costs cannot be achieved. The authors and others have previously proposed a CO 2 -capturing hybrid solar thermal power generation sys- tem in which both solar thermal energy and fossil fuel are utilized [3-5]. In the proposed system, since relatively low-temperature steam is produced by utilizing the solar thermal energy and is used as the main working fluid of the gas turbine to generate electric power, the heat collecting efficiency can be raised compared to the case of conven- tional solar thermal power generation; and since fossil fuel is also used, the capacity can be drastically improved. For this reason, there is a possibility that the proposed system is economically feasible even when the proposed system is installed in places where the solar radiation condition is not good, such as in Osaka City, Japan [6]. Using the pure oxygen combustion method, the proposed system can cap- ture in principle all the CO 2 emitted, and it has been estimated that a high fuel-based power generation effi- ciency of over 60% can be obtained on a lower heating value basis even taking into account the electric power energy consumed in CO 2 recovery and liquefaction. When strict CO 2 emission restriction is imposed in the future, the worldwide introduction of solar-energy-util- izing power generation systems worldwide may become necessary. However, the characteristics and economics of CCC0424-7760/99/030001-12 1999 Scripta Technica Electrical Engineering in Japan, Vol. 127, No. 3, 1999 Translated from Denki Gakkai Ronbunshi, Vol. 118-B, No. 3, March 1998, pp. 246-253 1 solar-energy-utilizing power generation systems depend on the solar radiation condition at the installed location; more- over, the structure of the installed systems varies. Since the regional difference in solar radiation conditions is large worldwide, the introduction must be promoted in such a way that an appropriate system is selected from the various solar-energy-utilizing power generation systems according to the installation location from the viewpoint of charac- teristics and economics. For the purpose of clarifying which power generation system should be introduced in the future under what conditions, three systems are investigated-a solar thermal power generation system, a solar photovoltaic power gen- eration system, and a CO 2 -capturing solar thermal hybrid power generation system. Our research has entailed a com- parative evaluation of the characteristics and economics of these systems. In this evaluation, we have taken into ac- count that the characteristics and economics of the systems differ due to solar radiation conditions, and estimated the characteristics of the systems based on various solar radia- tion conditions. In the economic evaluation, we have esti- mated and evaluated the construction cost and unit cost of fuel in the future; and we have also studied the conditions under which condition each system is preferable economi- cally. 2. Structures of the Evaluated Systems Figure 1 shows the fundamental structures of the three systems evaluated. In the solar thermal power genera- (a) Solar thermal power generation system, STS (b) Solar photovoltaic power generation system, PVS Fig. 1. Fundamental structures of the evaluated systems utilizing solar energy. (c) Solar thermal hybrid power generation system, HBS 2 tion system (STS) shown in Fig. 1(a), by utilizing the energy obtained in the solar thermal collectors, the super- heated steam produced by the heat exchanger is used as the working fluid of the steam-turbine power generation sys- tem. In the solar photovoltaic power generation system (PVS) shown in Fig. 1(b), the electric power obtained by flat-plate photovoltaic arrays is transmitted through an in- verter. In the CO 2 -capturing solar thermal hybrid power generation system (HBS), the steam is produced by utiliz- ing the energy obtained in the solar thermal collectors and used as the working fluid of the CO 2 -capturing H 2 O-turbine power generation system. As shown in Fig. 1(c), the steam accumulator is used as a heat storage devise as was done in Ref. 6. For details of the configuration of the HBS, see Refs. 3 to 7. In these systems, the solar thermal collector is of trough type; and for both solar thermal collectors and photovoltaic arrays, the single north-south axis method is adopted the same as in Ref. 4. 3. Evaluation of Hourly Solar Radiation at Various Locations As an example of the installation locations of the systems studied, five sites shown in Table 1 are selected. The regional difference in solar radiation conditions is seen to be large; for example, the total horizontal solar radiation energy in the Great Sandy Desert (Australia) is 1.80 times that in Osaka. Moreover, the mean value of the total solar radiation energies worldwide is about 4.7 kWh/m 2 bday, which is roughly equivalent to the average value of the total horizontal solar radiation energies of Ottawa or Miami. Solar radiation can be divided into direct solar radia- tion and diffuse solar radiation. In the trough thermal col- lectors used in the STS and the HBS, only the direct solar radiation component can be used; however, in the flat-plate photovoltaic arrays of the solar photovoltaic PVS, the dif- fuse solar radiation component can also be utilized. Thus, both direct and diffuse solar radiation data are required in estimating the characteristics of the systems studied. More- over, in order to accurately estimate the characteristics of thermal collection and storage, it is desirable to obtain the solar radiation data hourly; however, the locations where the measurement data can be obtained are limited. In this paper, we have estimated by the following procedures, the hourly mean direct solar radiation intensity and mean dif- fuse solar radiation intensity with the daily mean total solar radiation energy according to month in the locations where the data are easy to obtain. (i) From the monthly mean values of daily total horizontal solar radiation energy, the monthly mean values of hourly total horizontal solar radiation intensity is esti- mated with the use of Fig. 2. Figure 2 shows the curves, obtained on the basis of many measured values, that can be used to determine the hourly total solar radiation energy from the daily total solar radiation energy [12]. (ii) By utilizing the direct-diffuse separation method based on IEA [8], the hourly mean direct normal solar radiation intensity and the hourly mean diffuse hori- zontal solar radiation intensity are estimated from the hourly mean total horizontal solar radiation intensity ob- tained in (i). The solar radiation intensity incident on the light-ab- sorbing surface of the solar thermal collectors and photo- voltaic arrays is estimated as follows. Let I H , I D , and I S be respectively the total horizontal solar radiation intensity, Table 1. Estimated annual mean values of daily direct and diffuse solar radiation energy (units: kWh/m 2 bday) Location of installation Total horizontal solar radiation energy * Direct normal solar radiation energy Diffuse solar radiation energy Osaka 3.63 2.50 1.99 New York 3.84 3.54 1.63 Ottawa 3.91 4.42 1.38 Miami 5.31 5.60 1.55 Great Sandy Desert 6.53 7.68 1.22 Fig. 2. Graph for estimating hourly total solar radiation from daily total solar radiation. 3 direct normal solar radiation intensity, and diffuse horizon- tal solar radiation intensity; and let H D be the direct com- ponent of solar radiation intensity, and H S the diffuse component of solar radiation intensity among the solar radiation incident on the light-absorbing surface in the one-axis tracking scheme with N-S axis fixed. Then, H D can be expressed by the following equation [4, 13] where 6 is the angle of incidence on the light-absorbing surface of the sunlight and can be calculated from Here, 6, /, and are, respectively, the latitude of the location of installation, solar declination, and hour angle. The diffuse solar radiation component H S can be estimated by using the following equation with an accuracy which is practically no problem [8, 13]: In Eq. (3), the first term on the right-hand side is the sky solar radiation component and the second term is the re- flected solar radiation component; - expresses the tracking angle of sunlight on the light-absorbing surface calculated using Eq. (4); and 7 expresses the reflection factor of the ground surface. 7 takes different values depending on the state of the ground surface; however, we use 0.15 as the value of 7 in this paper. From the measured values of the monthly mean total horizontal solar radiation energy at various locations, the hourly mean direct solar radiation intensity and mean dif- fuse solar radiation intensity according to month are esti- mated by the above-mentioned procedures. The estimated annual mean values of the daily direct and diffuse solar radiation energies are also shown in Table 1. It can be seen that the difference in direct solar radiation energy becomes even larger than for total solar radiation energy, and it is estimated that the direct solar radiation energy of the Great Sandy Desert is 3.07 times that of Osaka. 4. Characteristics Evaluation 4.1 Assumed conditions Using the hourly solar radiation data estimated in section 3, the power generation characteristics of the sytems are estimated with simulation models constructed by the authors [3-7]. In these simulation models, the thermody- namic relational equations on the state quantities of the fluid on the inlet side and outlet side in the apparatus comprising the power generation system, such as solar thermal collector, steam turbine, and gas turbine, are de- scribed respectively in block implementation by means of the object-oriented programming language C++. The simu- lation programs of the power generation systems can be easily constructed by combining the blocks according to the system configurations. Table 2 shows the main conditions assumed in the characteristics estimation. (a) Solar thermal power generation system, STS For the solar thermal collectors with a total aperture area of 10 ha having the characteristics shown in Table 2(a), superheated steam of 346 C, 14 kg/cm 2 a-which is the same as the pilot plant constructed in Nio-cho of Kagawa in Japan-is produced by the heat exchanger. In the steam- turbine power generation system, it is assumed that the water-cooling-type condenser can be adopted and the outlet pressure of the condenser is set at 0.1 kg/cm 2 a. For simplic- ity, the heat storage tank is not installed. The economics of the system is expected to be im- proved when the generated energy is increased and the construction cost is cheaper. Here, since the area of the solar thermal collectors is fixed, the utilizable total energy of the solar radiation is constant. However, since the solar radia- tion energy changes with time, when the capacity (net power output) of the steam-turbine power generation sys- tem is small, the energy that cannot be effectively utilized will occur in time zones where the solar radiation condition is good. In order to increase the generated energy, it is necessary to make the net power output large. However, since the increase of the net power output increases the construction cost, there exists an appropriate scale from the viewpoint of economics. Accordingly, for the rated output, we search for the value at which the unit cost of power generation is the lowest at the respective locations of instal- lation. (b) Solar photovoltaic power generation system, PVS The array area is set as 10 ha, the same as for the solar thermal collectors in the STS. Polycrystalline silicon pho- tovoltaic cells are used and their efficiency is set at 15% (array efficiency) taking into account the drop of efficiency due to array implementation [14]. The energy loss factor is set as 10% summarizing the loss due to inverter, etc. (c) Hybrid power generation system, HBS The solar thermal collector and heat exchanger hav- ing the same characteristics and scales as in the STS are used. The temperature of the saturated steam produced is set as 220 C. The inside volume of the steam accumulator and the steam pressure at the inlet of the CO 2 -captured H 2 O (1) (2) (3) (4) 4 turbine power generation system are assumed to be 2000 m 3 and 10 kg/cm 2 a, respectively, the same as in Ref. 6. The inlet temperature of the turbine is set at 1200 C and the outlet pressure of the condenser is set at 0.1 kg/cm 2 a. As to scale capacity (net power output), the value has been sought at which the unit cost of generated power energy becomes the lowest at the respective installed locations, as is done in the solar thermal power generation system. In addition to the exogenous variables listed in Table 2(c), as to the values of exogenous parameters required in simulation, such as Table 2. Assumed conditions for characteristics estimation (a) Solar thermal power generation system, STS Total aperture area of solar thermal collector 10 ha (100,000 m 2 ) Optical efficiency of solar thermal collector 70% Concentration ratio of solar thermal collector 30 Effective emittance of solar thermal collector 0.4 Temperature difference on high-temperature side and low-temperature side of heat ex- changer both 20 C Energy loss rate in thermal transportation and heat exchanger 10% Temperature of steam produced by utilizing solar thermal energy 346 C Net power output of steam-turbine power generation system searching for an optimal value such that the unit cost of generated power energy becomes minimum Inlet steam pressure of steam turbine 14 kg/cm 2 a Adiabatic efficiency of steam turbine 80% Generator efficiency 95% Outlet pressure of condenser 0.1 kg/cm 2 a (b) Solar photovoltaic power generation system, PVS Total area of photovoltaic-cell array 10 ha (100,000 m 2 ) Conversion efficiency of photovoltaic array 15% Energy loss rate due to inverter, etc. 10% (c) Hybrid power generation system, HBS Characteristics and capacities of solar thermal collector and heat exchanger same as for solar thermal power generation system Temperature of saturated steam produced by utilizing solar thermal energy 200 C Internal volume of steam accumulator 2000 m 3 Rated power output of CO 2 -capturing H 2 O turbine power generation system searching for an optimal value such that the unit cost of generated power energy is a minimum Inlet steam pressure of CO 2 -capturing H 2 O turbine power generation system 10 kg/cm 2 a Outlet pressure of condenser 0.1 kg/cm 2 a Inlet temperature of turbine 1200 C Temperature of return water 100 C 5 temperature efficiency of regenerator, adiabatic efficiency of turbine, and generator efficiency, the same values are used as those found in Ref. 6. 4.2 Estimated characteristics and comparison For convenience of explanation, the cost data of the power generation systems used in estimating the unit cost of power generated energy will be described in section 5. Table 3 and Fig. 3 show the net power output of the systems at the respective locations of installation and the estimated results of the annual net generated energy, respectively. In Fig. 3, the horizontal axis expresses the average direct normal solar radiation energy per day in a year, and the trend of the dependence of the generated energy on the solar radiation condition can be shown by connecting the esti- mated values at the five locations. As seen in Table 3, the net power outputs of the STS and HBS when the unit cost of generated power energy is estimated to be minimum are all estimated to become larger as the direct solar radiation energy at the location of installation is larger. As seen in Fig. 3, the same relation is also applicable for the generated energy. The net power output of the PVS is constant regard- less of location of installation; however, it is also seen that larger electrical energy can be obtained at the locations where the direct solar radiation energy is abundant, similar to the other two systems. When the generated energies of the systems are compared, we can see that they become larger in increasing order of the STS, PVS, and HBS at all locations. The estimated capacity factors determined from the estimated net power output and generated energy are also shown in Table 3. As seen, the capacity factor is estimated to be 24% to 36% in the STS, 16% to 34% in the PVS, and 70% to 79% in the HBS. Also, the capacity factor of the PVS is most heavily dependent on the direct solar radiation energy at the location of installation. The capacity factor of the STS is estimated to be higher than that of the PVS. The reason is as follows, taking the case of Osaka as an example. The maximum possible net power output of the STS is estimated to be 13.6 MW, about the same as that of the PVS. When the net power output of the STS is set at 13.6 MW, the capacity factor of the system becomes 7.09%, considerably lower than that of Table 3. Estimated maximum net power output and capacity factor Solar thermal power generation system, STS Solar photovoltaic power generation system, PVS Solar thermal hybrid power generation system, HBS Net power output Capacity factor Net power output Capacity factor Net power output Capacity factor Location of Installation (MW) (%) (MW) (%) (MW) (%) Osaka 3.80 24.2 13.5 16.3 3.96 75.2 New York 5.49 25.4 13.5 18.6 4.68 74.3 Ottawa 6.34 27.6 13.5 20.3 5.20 74.7 Miami 7.21 35.0 13.5 26.9 7.02 78.7 Great Sandy Desert 10.1 36.3 13.5 34.3 9.52 70.4 Fig. 3. Estimated annual generated power energy. 6 the PVS. When the net power output of the STS is smaller, the capacity factor increases. Here, since the net power output of the STS is set at the small value of 3.80 MW from the viewpoint of economics, the capacity factor of the STS is estimated to be higher (24.2%) than for the PVS (the net power output for the same capacity factor as the PVS is estimated to be 5.88 MW). The capacity factor of the HBS is drastically higher than for the STS. This is because not only solar energy but also fossil fuel are used as primary energy in the HBS. Figure 4 shows the estimated heat-collecting effi- ciency of the solar thermal collector in the STS and HBS. When the estimated heat-collecting efficiency of the solar thermal collector in the HBS is 2.8% to 9.4% higher than that of the STS, the difference in efficiency is seen to be larger at locations where the direct solar radiation energy is smaller. This is because the average temperature of the solar thermal collector in the STS is 216 C, whereas that of the HBS is lower (180 C), and, in general, the heat-collecting efficiency of the solar thermal collector becomes higher when the average temperature of the solar thermal collector is lower [3]. The power generation efficiencies of the systems are compared on the exergy basis, since the quality of the energy differs between fossil fuel and solar energy. For the calculation the exergy, the reference environmental tem- perature for the calculation of the exergy is set as 25 C and the brightness temperature of the sun is set at 4930 C, which is the value when the air mass is 1 [13]. Figure 5 shows the estimated results of the total net exergetic effi- ciencies of the systems. It is seen that the exergetic effi- ciency of the STS is estimated to become higher at locations where direct solar radiation energy is abundant. As shown in Fig. 4, this is because the heat-collecting efficiency of the solar thermal collector becomes higher with increasing direct solar radiation intensity. On the other hand, the exergetic efficiency of the HBS becomes lower at higher solar radiation locations because the ratio occupied by the exergy of the solar radiation among the total input exergy becomes higher. In the PVS, the exergetic efficiency is estimated to be constant at 14.4% regardless of the solar radiation condition. The exergetic efficiency becomes higher in increas- ing order of the STS, PVS, and HBS, and the exergetic efficiency of the HBS is estimated to be 1.33 to 2.08 times that of the STS and 22.1% to 60.3% higher than that of the PVS. The exergetic efficiency of the HBS is relatively higher because the HBS uses fossil fuel in addition to solar thermal energy. It should be noted, however, the fact that the exergetic efficiency of a power generation system is high does not necessarily mean that the economics of that system is high. 5. Economic Evaluation 5.1 Assumed cost data Except for some regions where the solar radiation condition is good, the evaluated systems present difficulty Fig. 4. Estimated heat-collecting efficiency of solar thermal collector. Fig. 5. Estimated net total exergetic efficiency. 7 for large-scale introduction because of economic or tech- nological problems at the present time. Here, as the period under consideration, we will deal with a future time when CO 2 -capturing technology based on the pure oxygen com- bustion method required for realizing the HBS and the technology of deep-ocean dumping of captured CO 2 may reach the practical stage. We will carry out the economic evaluation by assuming the reduction of construction costs due to technological progress up to that point along with the possible rise of fuel prices. Table 4 shows the cost data assumed in the evaluation. These future cost data are based on Refs. 11 to 19. As to the solar thermal collector, taking into account an example where the construction cost is expected to decrease about 40% in the future [11], we have set the low, medium, and high levels of the unit construction cost to be 14,000, 18,000, and 22,000 yen/m 2 , respectively. The construction cost of the PVS is 1 K 10 6 to 2.5 K 10 6 yen/kW at the present time; however, the future uncertainty is considered to be relatively large, there being a report of the possibility of dropping to one-fifth along with the increase in the annual production in the future [15]. In the PVS of large-scale ground installation type for electric utilities as discussed in this paper, taking into account also that specialized mount- ing structures are required (different from the case of in- stalling a small-scale power generation system on a roof), and that the cost of the entire system will not drop much, we assumed here the construction costs of the medium level as 350 K 10 3 yen/kW as shown in Table 4, and set the construction costs of the low level and high level as 250 K 10 3 and 450 K 10 3 yen/kW, respectively. * The unit cost of natural gas at present is about 0.5 yen/MJ (about 2 yen/Mcal); although the outlook is that it will not change much in the short term, there is a possibility that it may rise sharply along with the resource exhaustion in the long term. Here, we will investigate the economics Table 4. Assumed cost data for economic evaluation Facilities, etc. Assumed values Trough type solar thermal collector 14 K 10 3 yen/m 2 (low level) 18 K 10 3 yen/m 2 (medium level) 22 K 10 3 yen/m 2 (high level) Steam-turbine power generation system 150 K 10 3 yen/kW Solar photovoltaic power generation system, PVS 250 K 10 3 yen/kW (low level) 350 K 10 3 yen/kW (medium level) 450 K 10 3 yen/kW (high level) H 2 O turbine power generation system 200 K 10 3 yen/kW Oxygen production compressor 440 K 10 6 yen/(t C/h) CO 2 liquefying equipment 310 K 10 6 yen/(t C/h) Steam accumulator 47 K 10 3 yen/m 2 Unit cost of fuel Case A: 0.8 yen/MJ Case B: 1.2 yen/MJ Case C: 1.6 yen/MJ Recovered CO 2 processing 8000 yen/t C Annual expense factor 0.173, * 0.143 f * Solar thermal power generation system, STS and solar thermal hybrid power generation system, HBS. f Solar photovoltaic power generation system, PVS. * The construction cost is not necessarily the same due to the difference in installation condition at the respective location of installation. However, since the objective of this paper is evaluation of the effect of the difference in solar radiation conditions on the characteristics and economics of the systems, we have assumed that the construction cost is constant regardless of the location of installation. 8 by assuming three cases: Cases A, B, and C as shown in Table 4. As to the disposal methods of the captured CO 2 , we have assumed the case of transporting it from the location of installation to a location 100 km away and disposing it into deep-ocean dumping or underground processing; its cost is set as 8000 yen/t C [16]. The general electric power utilities are assumed to construct and operate the systems, and the construction cost is assumed to be depreciated in 10 years. In the systems that will emit no CO 2 , the relatively low fixed rate of interest is regarded as utilizable, and the rate of interest of the capital is set as 4%/year. The maintenance cost rate of the STS and HBS is set as 5%/year, and the maintenance cost rate of the PVS without using the mechanical power system is set as 2%/year. Therefore, the annual cost rate of the facilities is set as 0.173 for the STS and HBS and 0.143 for the PVS. 5.2 Economic evaluation based on unit cost of generated power energy In this paper, the economics of the power generation systems are evaluated on the basis of the unit cost of generated power energy. C P , the unit cost of generated power energy, can be determined as (c) Case C (unit cost of fuel 1.6 yen/MJ) Fig. 6. Estimated unit cost of generated power energy where low and high construction costs are assumed. (5) (b) Case B (unit cost of fuel 1.2 yen/MJ) (a) Case A (unit cost of fuel 0.8 yen/MJ) 9 where, W N is the annual net generated energy and C G is the annual cost of generated power energy expressed as * The estimated results for the case when the unit cost of fuel has risen are shown in Fig. 6. In the future, the low-level and high-level assumed values are used as the construction costs of the solar thermal collector and solar photovoltaic power generation system. As seen from Fig. 6, the uncertainty of the unit cost of power generated energy caused by the uncertainty of the assumed costs is estimated to become larger in the increasing order of the HBS, the STS, and the PVS. Let us explain the estimated results of the unit cost of generated energy for the case when the construction cost is reduced drastically, namely, when the low-level assumed values are used as the construction costs. As seen from Fig. 6(a), for Case A, in locations where the solar radiation condition is not very good (such as Osaka, New York, and Ottawa), the unit cost of generated power energy of the HBS is the lowest (that is, most economical). However, in other locations, the PVS is estimated to be the most economical. Moreover, as in Cases B and C, when the unit cost of fuel rises, the economical superiority of the PVS is estimated to become higher. On the contrary, according to the estimated unit cost of generated power energy, when using the high-level values as the construction costs, the unit cost of the PVS becomes drastically high, and it is seen that the STS becomes the most economical in locations where direct solar radiation energy is abundant and that the HBS becomes the most economical in locations with a lower solar radiation condition. As seen from Fig. 6, in the STS and the PVS, the unit cost of generated power energy drops considerably when solar radiation energy is abundant; however, it decreases slightly for the HBS. This is because, as shown in Fig. 5, the exergetic efficiency (performance of the system) of the HBS becomes worse with a decrease in the direct solar radiation energy. Figure 7 shows the estimated values of C P when the medium-level values are used as the construction costs and the unit cost of fuel is that of Case B. As seen, when the unit costs of generated power energy at the various locations of installation are compared, the STS is the most economical at locations where the solar radiation condition is good, and the HBS is the most economical at locations where the solar radiation condition is not very good. The PVS of large-scale ground installation type for electric utilities is estimated to be of not much advantage economically in either location. It is seen from Fig. 7 that the ratio of the change of the unit cost of generated power energy with respect to the change of direct solar radiation energy is estimated to become higher in the increasing order of the HBS, the PVS, and the STS. 6. Conclusions The characteristics and economics of three systems of power generation utilizing solar energy-solar thermal power generation system (STS), solar photovoltaic power generation system (PVS), and hybrid power generation system (HBS)-have been evaluated by choosing five places where the solar radiation condition is different as the locations of installation. Among the systems utilizing the solar thermal collec- tors or photovoltaic arrays of the same area (10 ha), the net generated energy and the total net exergetic efficiency of the HBS are estimated to be the largest in all the locations. The economics of the systems have also been evalu- ated on the basis of the unit cost of generated power energy under several conditions at a future time. The estimated unit cost of power generation differs depending on the values of the construction cost and unit cost of fuel. In general, the unit cost of the STS is the lowest at locations where the solar C G = facility depreciation cost + facility maintenance cost + fuel cost + captured CO 2 disposal cost (6) * Here, since it is assumed that the solar thermal collectors and photovoltaic arrays of the same area are operated by the same tracking scheme for the three evaluated systems, the land price is not considered explicitly. For the other costs such as personnel expenses except the maintenance cost, they are also not considered because the difference due to the system is considered small. Fig. 7. Estimated unit cost of generated power energy where medium construction cost is assumed. 10 radiation condition is good, and the unit cost of the HBS is the lowest at locations where the solar radiation condition is not very good. The ratio of the change of the unit cost of power generation with respect to the change of the solar radiation condition is estimated to be smaller in the decreas- ing order of the STS, the PVS, and the HBS. When drastic reduction of the construction costs can be achieved, the economics of the PVS becomes the highest at many loca- tions. However, when the construction costs are the me- dium-level assumed values, the STS is estimated to be the most economical at locations where the solar radiation condition is good and the HBS at locations where the solar radiation condition is not very good. 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Proposal and char- acteristics evaluation of a CO 2 -recovering hybrid power generation system utilizing solar thermal en- ergy. Trans IEE Jpn 1995;115-B:669-675. 4. Pak PS, Suzuki Y. Characteristics evaluation of a CO 2 -capturing hybrid power generation system util- izing solar thermal energy constructed in Osaka. Trans IEE Jpn 1996;116-B:671-677. 5. Pak PS, Suzuki Y, Kosugi T. A CO 2 -capturing hybrid power-generation system with high efficient use of solar thermal energy. Energy 1997;22:295-299. 6. Kosugi T, Pak PS, Suzuki Y. Economics evaluation of a CO 2 -capturing hybrid power generation system utilizing solar thermal energy. Proc 15th Conference of the Japan Society of Energy and Resources, 1996. p 173-178. 7. Pak PS, Suzuki Y. A CO 2 -recovering nonpolluting high-efficiency gas turbine power generation system utilizing saturated steam as its working fluid. Trans IEE Jpn 1993;113-B:266-272. 8. Japan Solar Energy Society (editors). Fundamentals and applications of solar energy. 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J Chem Engineering Jpn 1994;20:261-267. 16. New Energy and Industrial Development Organiza- tion (NEDO). Survey of analysis and evaluation tech- niques of overall fossil fuel cycles from the viewpoint of global environment. 1993 FY Survey Report, NEDO-P-9330, 1994. p 67-115. 17. Hondo H, Uchiyama Y. Economic analysis of emis- sion control technologies of fossil-fired power plants. Res Rep Central Res Inst Electr Power Indus, Y92009, 1993:22-39. 18. Kalogirou SA, Lloyd S. Use of solar parabolic trough collectors for hot water production in Cyprus. A feasibility study. Renewable Energy 1992;2:117- 124. 19. Suzuki Y, Ito K (editors). Energy storage systems. Japan Society of Energy and Resources, 1992. p 339-358. 11 AUTHORS (from left to right) Takanobu Kosugi (member) graduated from the Department of Information System Engineering of Osaka University in 1993. He completed the master`s degree and has been a research associate at the Cooperative Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, Osaka University, since 1995. He is engaged in research on evaluation of CO, mitigating energy systems. He is a member of the Japan Society of Energy and Resources. Pyong Sik Pak (member) graduated from the Department of Electrical Engineering of Osaka University in 1968 and obtained a Dr. of Eng. degree in 1973. He became a research associate in 1973 and an associate professor in 1988 in the Department of Electrical Engineering and has been with the Department of Information Systems Engineering, Osaka University since 1992. He is engaged in research on modeling and analysis of various systems. He is a member of the Japan Society of Energy and Resources, the Gas Turbine Society of Japan, and the Society of Instrument and Control Engineers. Yutaka Suzuki (member) graduated from the Department of Electrical Engineering of Osaka University in 1958 and completed the master`s course in 1960 and later a Dr. of Eng. degree. After serving as a research associate and associate professor, he became a professor in 1972 in the Department of Electrical Engineering, and has been with the Department of Information Systems Engineering, Osaka University, since 1989. He is engaged in research on modeling and simulation as well as urban planning. He is a member of the Japan Society of Energy and Resources, the Operations Research Society of Japan, and IMACS.
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