UNWTO

General
Assembly
19
th
Session
Gyeongju
Republic of Korea
10 October 2011
International tourist arrivals
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
m
i
l
l
i
o
n
Tourism 2020 Vision forecast
Actual 1995-2010*
881 mn
Tourism 2020 Vision vs. actual trend
World
528 mn
940 mn
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Tourism Towards 2030
A broad research project in continuation of UNWTOs work in the area
of long-term forecasting initiated in the 1990s.
Objectives:
Assist UNWTO Members in formulating policies and long-term strategic plans
Provide a global reference on tourism future development
Reinforce UNWTOs role in agenda setting for tourism-related subjects
Constitute a reference for UNWTO strategic documents, programme of work and
activities
Central in the study are the projections for international tourism flows in
the two decades 2010-2030
Data series on international tourist arrivals as reported by destination countries are
used as the key indicator, taking into account subregion of destination, region of
origin, mode of transport and purpose of visit for the period 1980-2010
The quantitative forecast is based on a causal econometric model with
international tourist arrivals as the dependent variable and as independent
variables growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a proxy for traveller affluence
and business travel potential, and also cost of transport
Growth in international tourism will continue,
but at a more moderate pace
International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, % change over previous year
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
3
0
0
1
9
4
3
9
7
6
7
0
9
3
4
4
6
5
3
4
8
0
3
-2
10
6
6
7
2
-4
7
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1980/'79 1985/'84 1990/'89 1995/'94 2000/'99 2005/'04 2010/'09 2015/'14 2020/'19 2025/'24 2030/'29
International tourist arrivals to increase
by 43 million a year on average
International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
8
0
0
4
25
13
10
30
27
22
28
-2
39
15
21
20
33
26
16
22
49
-1
20
-11
70
45 45
56
20
-35
58
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
International tourist arrivals to reach
1.8 billion by 2030
International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, million
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Emerging economy destinations to surpass
advanced destinations in 2015
Inbound tourism, advanced and emerging economies International Tourist Arrivals, million
emerging economies
advanced economies
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Asia and the Pacific will gain most
of the new arrivals
Inbound tourism by region of destination International Tourist Arrivals, million
Europe
Asia and the Pacific
Americas
Middle East
Africa
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East
and Africa to increase their shares
Africa
3%
Americas
23%
Asia and the Pacific
8%
Europe
63%
Middle East
3%
Middle East
6%
Europe
51%
Asia and the Pacific
22%
Americas
16%
Africa
5%
Africa
7%
Americas
14%
Asia and the Pacific
30%
Europe
41%
Middle East
8%
1980
2010
2030
North-East Asia will be the most visited
subregion in 2030
Europe continues to lead in international
arrivals received per 100 of population
No major change in share by purpose of visit
International tourism by purpose of visit International Tourist Arrivals, million
Leisure, recreation and holidays
VFR, health, religion, other
Business and professional
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Air transport will continue to increase
market share, but at a slower pace
International tourism by means of transport International Tourist Arrivals, million
by air
over surface
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
0
250
500
750
1,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Travel between regions continues to grow
slightly faster than within the same region
International tourism by region of destination and origin International Tourist Arrivals, share, %
within same region
between regions
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Asia and the Pacific will also be the
outbound region that grows most
Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals generated, million
12
110
88
308
10
30
160
204
509
37
90
265
541
832
81
6
169
25
71
6
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Africa Americas Asia and the Pacific Europe Middle East
1980 1995 2010 2030
Outbound tourism participation is highest in
Europe and still low in Asia and the Pacific
Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals generated per 100 population
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
9
2
14
3
36
6
14
3
17
5
57
17
22
6
24
12
89
25
6
1
12
1
21
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
World Africa Americas Asia and the
Pacific
Europe Middle East
1980 1995 2010 2030
What if assumptions change?
Tourism Towards 2030: global projection and sensitivity analysis International Tourist Arrivals, million
source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Actual data 1980-2010
Transport costs continue to fall (scenario 3)
Central projection
Faster rising cost of transport (scenario 2)
A slower-than-expected economic recovery and future growth (Scenario 1)
One-Page Tourism Towards 2030
Global growth in international tourist arrivals to continue, but at a more
moderate pace, from 4.2% per year (19802020) to 3.3% (20102030),
as a result of four factors:
The base volumes are higher, so smaller increases still add substantial numbers
Lower GDP growth, as economies mature
A lower elasticity of travel to GDP
A shift from falling transport costs to increasing ones
Tourism Towards 2030 shows that there is still a substantial potential for
further expansion in coming decades. Established as well as new
destinations can benefit from this trend and opportunity, provided they do
shape the adequate conditions and policies with regard to business
environment, infrastructure, facilitation, marketing and human resources.
Along with opportunities, challenges also arise in maximising social and
economic benefits and minimising negative impacts
Long-term tourism growth pattern: more moderate, sustainable and
inclusive
Tourism towards
2030 /
Global Overview
Thank you very much
for your attention!
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
www.unwto.org