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bbeN
bpbepe
, V
0
pbN
bpbepe
, E = 0 = I.
Further, to study the stability of worm-free equilibrium, the system (2) is linearized around x
0
by taking,
St S
0
st; Vt V
0
vt and It it: 3
Then using Eq. (1) (i.e. E = N S I V), we have,
ds
dt
b ps ev ci
bb e
b p e
i;
dv
dt
ps b ev
rbp
b p e
i;
di
dt
gs gv
rbp
b p e
b a c g
i:
4
The fundamental matrix of the system (4) consists of the solutions x
j
s
j
t; v
j
t; i
j
t; j = 1, 2, 3 which satisfy the
conditions:
x
1
0 1; 0; 0; x
2
0 0; 1; 0; x
3
0 0; 0; 1:
We have the set of solutions given by,
x
1
expb pt
0
0
0
B
@
1
C
A; x
2
0
expb et
0
0
B
@
1
C
A and x
3
0
0
exp
brp
bpe
b a c g
t
h i
0
B
@
1
C
A:
Now, the local stability of x
0
is determined by the modulus of the eigenvalues of the matrix M(t) = [x
1
(t), x
2
(t), x
3
(t)]. These
eigenvalues are k
1
expb pt, k
2
expb et and k
3
exp
brp
bpe
b a c gt. Since 0 < k
1
, k
2
< 1, the equilib-
rium is locally asymptotically stable, if, k
3
< 1, that is,
brp
bpebacg
< 1, that is R
v
< 1, where, R
v
brp
bpebacg
is the mod-
ied reproductive number and worm-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable, if R
v
< 1 and unstable, if R
v
> 1.
4. Global stability of the worm-free equilibrium
Here, we will prove a theorem which shows that the local and global stability of worm-free equilibrium are equivalent.
Theorem. If R
v
< 1, then the worm-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.
Proof. Since U is the positively invariant region, it is sufcient to establish the global stability of x
0
in U. Since for all t 2 R,
S = N E I V, then from the system (2),
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
SUSCEPTIBLE S
V
A
C
C
I
N
A
T
E
D
V
b = 0.01, p = 0.01, Epsilon = 0.02
b = 0.02, p = 0.02, Epsilon = 0.03
b = 0.03, p = 0.03, Epsilon = 0.04
Fig. 2. Dynamical behavior of SV-plane with b = 0.01, p = 0.01, 0.02, 0.03, b = 0.01, 0.02, 0.03, a = 0.09, g = 0.03, h = 0.05, e = 0.02, 0.03, 0.04, r = 0.03, c = 0.03.
B.K. Mishra, S.K. Pandey / Applied Mathematical Modelling 38 (2014) 21732179 2175
dV
dt
pN pE pI
rbVI
N
eV b p eV;
dV
dt
6 b p eV:
Using Eq. (3),
dv
dt
6 b p eV
0
V
dv
dt
6 b p e
pN
b p e
V
:
Using Comparison theorem [39], we get,
lim
t!1
sup
lPt
Vl 6
pN
b p e
: 5
Then for a given e
0
> 0, there exists a t
0
> 0, such that, Vt 6
pN
bpe
e
0
e
It follows from the system (2), using similar approach,
for t > t
0
,
ds
dt
6 e
0
b p
beN
bpe
S
.
Consequently,
lim
t!1
sup
lPt
Sl 6
b eN
b p e
: 6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
TIME IN MINUTES
C
L
A
S
S
E
S
O
F
N
O
D
E
S
I
N
H
U
N
D
R
E
D
S
Susceptible
Exposed
Infectious
Vaccinated
Fig. 3. Dynamical behavior of the system (2) with b = 0.01, p = 0.01, b = 0.01, a = 0.09, g = 0.03, h = 0.05, e = 0.02, r = 0.03, c = 0.03.
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Infectious
V
a
c
c
i
n
a
t
e
d
Fig. 4. Dynamical behavior of IV-plane with b = 0.01, p = 0.01, b = 0.01, a = 0.09, g = 0.03, h = 0.05, e = 0.02, r = 0.03, c = 0.03.
2176 B.K. Mishra, S.K. Pandey / Applied Mathematical Modelling 38 (2014) 21732179
Using Eqs. (5), (6) and system (2), for e
0
> 0 (however small), we get,
dI
dt
6 b a c
R
v
b
2 re
0
b a c
b 1
; for t Pt
1
> t
0
: 7
That is, It 6 exp b a c R
v
1
2re
0
b
bac
t
h i
.
Since, R
v
< 1, for e
0
> 0 (sufciently small), we can see that, R
v
1
2re
0
b
bac
< 0 and hence by Eq. (7), 0 6 lim
t!1
It 6 0,
that is, lim
t!1
It 0.
We now show that each solution with an initial condition in U approaches x
0.
For this, we consider the system (when
I = 0),
dS
dt
bN b pS eV X;
dV
dt
pS b eV Y: 8
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
5
10
15
0
2
4
6
8
10
Susceptible
Infectious
V
a
c
c
i
n
a
t
e
d
Fig. 5. Dynamical behavior of SIV-plane with b = 0.01, p = 0.01, b = 0.01, a = 0.09, g = 0.03, h = 0.05, e = 0.02, r = 0.03, c = 0.03.
0
20
40
60
80
0
5
10
15
0
2
4
6
8
10
Exposed
Infectious
V
a
c
c
i
n
a
t
e
d
Fig. 6. Dynamical behavior of EIV-plane with b = 0.01, p = 0.01, b = 0.01, a = 0.09, g = 0.03, h = 0.05, e = 0.02, r = 0.03, c = 0.03.
B.K. Mishra, S.K. Pandey / Applied Mathematical Modelling 38 (2014) 21732179 2177
Now, we have the Dulac functison D = 1/V for V > 0, then, we get,
@
@S
DX
@
@V
DY
b p
V
pS
V
2
< 0:
Thus, the system (8) has no limit cycle and hence the model (2) has no limit cycle in the SV-plane for the different values
of the parameters (depicted in Fig. 2). Since lim
t!1
It 0, it follows that x
0
is the set of every solution in U [30,19]. Then, x
0
is the globally asymptotically stable. This shows that, R
v
< 1 guarantees the worm eradication. h
5. Numerical methods and discussion
Numerical methods (RungeKutta Fehlberg fourth-fth order methods) are employed to solve and simulate the system
(1) of equations developed under different parameters and the behavior of susceptible, exposed, infected and vaccinated
(anti-virus software with latest version) nodes with respect to time are observed which is depicted in Fig. 3. The analysis
of Fig. 3 says that the system is asymptotically stable. The effect of anti-virus (with latest version) treatment on infected
nodes is also observed and depicted in Fig. 4. Here, anti-virus software plays a vital role for the recovery of the nodes from
attack of worms. The more we use this software, the more is the recovery (depicted in Figs. 5 and 6), that is, the computer
network will be safe from the attack of worms. The vertical transmission parameter h plays an important role for the direct
spread of worms, so its parametric value (h = 0.01, 0.07, 0.15) is well considered in simulations. We have also observed that
as the value of h increases, attack of worms increases but nally infection vanishes due to antivirus software (Fig. 7). By anal-
ysis of the model and simulation studies, it investigates that the time of anti-virus technique and user observation are essen-
tial factors to control the worm transmission.
6. Conclusion
A dynamic e-epidemic SEIS-V model has been developed for the transmission of worms using vertical transmission in the
computer network. The transmission of worms in network can be through horizontal and vertical transmission. We assume
that the worms possess a non-negligible latent period & infected nodes will stay in the latent period before they become
infectious. We have discussed the characteristic of the modied reproductive number and established that if R
v
6 1, the
worm free equilibrium is globally stable in the feasible region and the worms fade out from the network, whereas if
R
v
> 1, the worm free equilibrium is unstable. This model will be highly useful to analyze the efciency of antivirus software.
The antivirus software will be highly efcient if the rate of recovery of nodes from infectious nodes is very high and crashing
of the nodes due to the attack of worms in the presence of the antivirus software is very less. Thus these types of mathemat-
ical models will be very helpful in developing good antivirus software, keeping into mind the attacking behavior of worms,
which may reduce the attack.
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