CMSDLCore Files13.08.30

CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 www.chicagodebateleague.
org
P1
Chicago Middle School
Debate League
2013/14
Core Files
Researched by ria! "eterso!
#dited by Les Ly!! a!d Cyd!ey #dwards
Resol$ed% &he '!ited States (ederal
go$er!)e!t should substa!tially
i!crease its eco!o)ic e!gage)e!t
toward Cuba* Me+ico* or ,e!e-uela.
CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 www.chicagodebateleague.org
2013/14 Core Files 2
Table of Contents (1/2)
.. /FF.RM/&.,# C/S#S /0D C/S# 0#1/&.,#S
Me+ico Security /2ir)ati$e 4 3
24
Me+ico Security 0egati$e
25 3 43
,e!e-uela De)ocracy /2ir)ati$e
44 3 45
,e!e-uela De)ocracy 0egati$e
46 3 64
Cuba #tha!ol /2ir)ati$e
67 3 124
Cuba #tha!ol 0egati$e
127 3 144
... D.S/D,/0&/1#S
Di8lo)atic Ca8ital 0egati$e
147 3 190
Di8lo)atic Ca8ital /2ir)ati$e
191 3 199
Chi!a 0egati$e
194 3 157
Chi!a /2ir)ati$e
159 3 161
"olitics 0egati$e
162 3 219
"olitics /2ir)ati$e
214 3 224
Corru8tio! 0egati$e
225 3 245
Corru8tio! /2ir)ati$e
246 3 276
2013/14 Core Files 3
&able o( Co!te!ts :2/2;
.... C<'0&#R"L/0
#uro8ea! '!io! Cou!ter8la! 0egati$e
290 3 243
#uro8ea! '!io! Cou!ter8la! /2ir)ati$e
244 3 253
.,. &<".C/L.&= ,.<L/&.<0S
Me+ico Security &o8icality 0egati$e
254 3 261
,e!e-uela De)ocracy &o8icality 0egati$e
262 3 265
Cuba #tha!ol &o8icality 0egati$e
266 3 307
Me+ico Security &o8icality /2ir)ati$e
309 3 305
,e!e-uela De)ocracy &o8icality /2ir)ati$e
306 3 312
Cuba #tha!ol &o8icality /2ir)ati$e
313 3 317
CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 .!de+
Me+ico Security Case 1/1
/FF
Mexico Security Affirmative 4
1AC: Mexico Security Affirmative....................................................................................................5
2AC arms: A/t ! "1 #Coo$eration %o&' (1/2).............................................................................1*
2AC arms: A/t ! "2 #%o %uclear Terrorism' (1/*).....................................................................15
2AC arms: A/t ! "* #+iolence is ,ecreasin-' (1/*)....................................................................1.
2AC arms: A/t ! "/ #,ru-s are ,ecreasin-' (1/2)......................................................................21
2AC Solvency: A/t ! "1 #0mmi-ration 1rom 2very&3ere'............................................................2*
2AC Solvency: A/t ! "2 #Mexico 4on5t 6eform' (1/2)..................................................................2/
2AC Solvency: A/t ! "* #2conomy is 7i--est 1actor'...................................................................28
2AC Solvency: A/t ! "/ #9eo-ra$3y :revents Coo$eration'.........................................................2;
/FF
T2S0S: T3e amount of violence alon- t3e Mexico an< =S bor<er is
ex$lo<in-> an< is $er3a$s t3e -reatest $roblem in =S!Mexico relations. . 0f
t3e =S -overnment en-a-es &it3 Mexico by -ivin- it fun<s to beef u$
bor<er security> <ru- crime an< bor<er violence &ill -o <o&n> &3ic3 in turn
re<uces t3e ris? of terrorists $enetratin- t3e =S over t3e Mexican bor<er.
CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 1/C
/FF
1AC: Mexico Security Affirmative 5
Contention One is Harms: Drug-related crimes in Mexico are leading to
mass illings and anarc!ic violence" even t!reatening to cause nuclear
terrorism#
1$ Mexico%s ina&ility to control cross-&order violence 'it!out assistance is
t!reatening t!e (S-Mexico relations!i) and damaging Mexico )olitically
and economically#
*O+,*-S A.D /A0S,*" 11
(@ames> 6esearc3 1ello& for 2conomic 1ree<om an< 9ro&t3 in t3e Center for 0nternational Tra<e
an< 2conomics at T3e erita-e 1oun<ationA an< 6ay> :3,.> Senior :olicy Analyst for Batin America
at erita-e 1oun<ationA #T3e a-el> Cerry> an< 7rennan Senate Confirmation earin-s: =.S. :olicy
for t3e 4estern emis$3ere>' 1/1.> 3tt$://&&&.3erita-e.or-/researc3/re$orts/2D1*/D1/?erry!
3a-el!an<!brennan!senate!confirmation!3earin-s!us!$olicy!for!t3e!&estern!3emis$3ere)
Mexico5s fi-3t a-ainst or-aniEe< crime 3as cast a <oleful s3a<o& over =.S.FMexican relations.
%e& Mexican :resi<ent 2nriGue :eHa %ieto $romises to restore citiEen security an< continue over3aulin-
Mexico5s $olice an< Iu<iciary. Jften overloo?e< in t3e =.S. is Mexico5s emer-in- economic statusK
t3e &orl<5s 11t3 lar-est economy an< -ro&in-. 0f Mexico o$ens its ener-y sector to eGuity
$artici$ation &it3 American com$anies (&it3 t3eir a<vance< <ee$&ater> frac?in-> an<
3oriEontal <rillin- tec3nolo-ies) an< ma?es ot3er serious reforms> it can reverse an alarmin-
<ecline in its oil $ro<uction an< ta$ massive s3ale -as <e$osits. T3e =.S. s3oul< continue to 3el$
Mexico fi-3t or-aniEe< crime &it3 a continuation of t3e Meri<a 0nitiative> en3ance< military!to!
military ties> an< serious attention to buil<in- real citiEen security. T3e =.S. an< Mexico nee< to
act Iointly in trouble< Central America> $articularly in t3e %ort3ern Trian-le (2l Salva<or>
9uatemala> an< on<uras) to combat traffic?in- or-aniEations an< s3ore u$ &ea? $olice an<
Iu<icial institutions. 0nvestin- in bor<er infrastructure> avoi<in- $rotectionist flare!u$s> an<
ex$lorin- ne& cross!bor<er ener-y alternatives can also cement a stron-er =.S.FMexico
/FF
relations3i$. T3e =.S. &ill fin< it 3ar< to $roIect -lobal lea<ers3i$ &it3out a <emocratic>
$ros$erous> an< stable Mexico.
/FF
3$ Drug violence is s)illing over into t!e (nited States &ecause a ne'
generation of dealers and gangs are com)letely la'less" anarc!ic" and
&loodt!irsty#
4,*56.S A.D 40AC6DO" 17
(Cevin> Assistant ,irector> Criminal 0nvesti-ative ,ivisionA Ant3ony> Assistant A<ministrator
for 0ntelli-ence
,ru- 2nforcement A-ency> 1e<eral 7ureau of 0nvesti-ationA #,ru- Traffic?in- +iolence in
Mexico: 0m$lications for t3e =nite< States>' 5/D5> 3tt$://&&&.fbi.-ov/ne&s/testimony/<ru-!
traffic?in-!violence!in!mexico!im$lications!for!t3e!unite<!states)
2xcessive violence by t3e cartels is a national security $roblem for Mexico> an<Kas our close
nei-3bor an< $olitical allyK$resents 3i-3 sta?es for t3e =nite< States. 0n t3e $ast year> =.S.
intelli-ence an< la& enforcement a-encies 3ave &or?e< <ili-ently to reac3 a consensus vie& on
#s$illover' violence an< on =.S. vulnerability to t3e Mexican cartels5 violent tactics. T3ese
<iscussions reGuire< t3e intera-ency to <efine #s$illover' in $ractical terms. As a-ree< to by t3e
intera-ency community> s$illover violence entails <eliberate> $lanne< attac?s by t3e cartels on
=.S. assets> inclu<in- civilian> military> or la& enforcement officials> innocent =.S. citiEens> or
$3ysical institutions suc3 as -overnment buil<in-s> consulates> or businesses. T3is <efinition
<oes not inclu<e traffic?er on traffic?er violence> &3et3er $er$etrate< in Mexico or t3e =.S.
S$illover violence is a com$licate< issue. 0t is crucial> in or<er to a<<ress t3e $roblem &it3 t3e
a$$ro$riate $ro-rams> resources> an< o$erations> t3at &e un<erstan< t3e <ifference bet&een t3e
intentional tar-etin- of innocent civilians in t3e =nite< States> or official =.S. -overnment
interests in Mexico or t3e =nite< States> an< actions t3at are c3aracteristic of violent <ru-
culture> suc3 as t3e ?illin- of an in<ivi<ual &3o o&es a <ru- <ebt to t3e or-aniEation. Certain
isolate< inci<ents in t3e =nite< States> suc3 as t3e torture by a Mexican traffic?er of a
,ominican <ru- customer in Atlanta> are fri-3tenin-> but <o not re$resent a <ramatic <e$arture
from t3e violence t3at 3as al&ays been associate< &it3 t3e <ru- tra<e. Muc3 of t3e ris? of
s$illover violence is $ose< by youn-er!-eneration traffic?ers &3ose a$$roac3 to t3e <ru- tra<e is
less rational an< $rofit!min<e< t3an t3at of t3eir #el<ers>' or by multi!national street an< $rison
-an-s &or?in- in concert &it3 Mexican cartels as enforcers an< street!level <ru- <istributors. As
t3e 9JM 3as continuously an< successfully <isru$te< t3e cartels5 comman< an< control
structure t3rou-3 o$erations a-ainst t3eir lea<ers> less!ex$erience< #Iunior' cartel members are
in3abitin- roles formerly 3el< by traffic?ers of lon- stan<in- &3o> &3ile violent> ten<e< to be
more <eliberate an< cautious in t3eir actions. 0n Ciu<a< @uareE> &3ere t3ree in<ivi<uals
associate< &it3 t3e =.S. consulate &ere ?ille< in Marc3> t3e 7arrio AEteca (7A) street -anis t3e
best ?no&n of several -an-s bein- use< as enforcers by Ba Binea> -ate?ee$ers for t3e @uareE
Cartel. T3e 7A 3as been lin?e< to <ru- traffic?in-> $rostitution> extortion> assaults> mur<er> an<
t3e retail sale of <ru-s obtaine< by Mexican ,TJs. 2lse&3ere in Mexico> t3e lin? bet&een street
-an-s an< t3e Mexican cartels is more flui< an< tenuous> &it3 -an- members ty$ically fillin-
retail <ru- sales roles rat3er t3an $rovi<in- enforcement.
/FF
/FF
1$ Drug violence in Mexico is illing t!ousands every mont!# ,ven c!ildren
are &eing turned into trained assassins#
C.." 13
(As3ley 1antE> #T3e Mexico <ru- &ar: 7o<ies for billions>' 1/2D>
3tt$://&&&.cnn.com/2D12/D1/15/&orl</mexico!<ru-!&ar!essay)
7ut t3e Mexican <ru- &ar> at its core> is about t&o numbers: /.>DDD an< *L billion. Jver t3e
$ast five years> nearly /.>DDD $eo$le 3ave been ?ille< in sus$ecte< <ru-!relate< violence in
Mexico> t3e countryMs fe<eral attorney -eneral announce< t3is mont3. 0n t3e first t3ree Guarters
of 2D11> almost 1*>DDD $eo$le <ie<. Col< an< incom$re3ensible Eeros> t3e <eat3 toll <oesnMt
inclu<e t3e more t3an 5>DDD $eo$le &3o 3ave <isa$$eare<> accor<in- to MexicoMs %ational
uman 6i-3ts Commission. 0t <oesnMt account for t3e tens of t3ousan<s of c3il<ren or$3ane<
by t3e violence. T3e -uilty live on bot3 si<es of t3e bor<er. Street -an-s &it3 cartel ties are not
only in Bos An-eles an< ,allas> but also in many smaller cities across t3e =nite< States an<
muc3 fart3er nort3 of t3e Mexican bor<er. Mexican cartels 3a< a $resence in 2*D cities in t3e
=nite< States in 2DD.> accor<in- to t3e =.S. @ustice ,e$artment. 0ts 2D11 re$ort s3o&s t3at
$resence 3as -ro&n to more t3an 1>DDD =.S. cities. 43ile t3e violence 3as remaine< mostly in
Mexico> aut3orities in AriEona> 9eor-ia> Texas> Alabama an< ot3er states 3ave re$orte<ly
investi-ate< ab<uctions an< ?illin-s sus$ecte< to be tie< to cartels. Mexican blac? tar 3eroin (so
calle< because itMs <ar? an< stic?y)> is c3ea$er t3an Colombian 3eroin> an< use< to be a rarity in
t3e =nite< States. %o& it is available in <oEens of cities an ex$erts say. Customers
$3one in t3eir or<ers> t3e Bos An-eles Times re$orts> an< small!time <ealers <eliver t3e <ru->
almost li?e $iEEa <eliverymen. Traffic?ers are recruitin- in t3e =nite< States> an< $refer to 3ire
youn-. Texas 3i-3 sc3ools say cartel members 3ave been on t3eir cam$uses. Most notoriously> a
1/!year!ol< from San ,ie-o became a 3ea<!c3o$$in- cartel assassin. N0 slit t3eir t3roats>N 3e
testifie< at 3is trial> 3el< near Cuernavaca. T3e teena-er> calle< N2l :onc3isN ! t3e Cloa? ! &as
foun< -uilty of torturin- an< be3ea<in- an< sentence< to t3ree years in a Mexican $rison. 1or
more t3an a <eca<e> t3e =nite< StatesM focus 3as been terrorism> an ex3austin- battle reliant on
covert o$eratives in societies &3ere t3e rule of la& 3as colla$se< or &i<es$rea< violence is t3e
norm. T3e situation in Mexico is be-innin- to s3o& similarities. 0n many bor<er areas> t3e
aut3ority of t3e Mexican state seems eit3er entirely absent or extremely &ea?. 0n Se$tember
2D1D> =.S. Secretary of State illary Clinton sai< cartel violence mi-3t be Nmor$3in- into or
ma?in- common cause &it3 &3at &e &oul< call an insur-ency.N 0f cartel violence is not
containe< in Mexico> &3ic3 s3ares a nearly 2>DDD mile bor<er &it3 t3e =nite< States> t3e <ru-
&ar coul< t3reaten =.S. national security an< even survival of t3e Mexican state.
/FF
4$ Mexican drug cartels !ave &egun to )artner 'it! nuclear terrorists"
o)ening t!e (nited States u) for attac#
A.A0:S6S 6.-,006;,.C," 11
(#0ron Trian-le of Terror: 0ran> eEbolla3 an< Bos Oetas>' 12/1L>
3tt$://analysisintelli-ence.com/intelli-ence!analysis/iron!trian-le!of!terror!iran!3eEbolla3!
an<!los!Eetas/)
Some sources 3ave sai< t3at t3e stren-t3enin- relations3i$ bet&een 0ran an< +eneEuela 3as
increase< eEbolla35s influence in t3e re-ion. 7ot3 lea<ers are staunc3ly anti!American> an< it
is reasonable to t3in? t3at t3ey &oul< $ursue activities t3at &oul< un<ermine =S interests.
6o-er %orei-a> t3e same official t3at &arne< of an attac? by eEbolla3> in<icates t3at
+eneEuela> #3as allo&e< 0ran to mine uranium' an< t3at +eneEuela5s Mar-arita 0slan< 3as
ecli$se< t3e infamous T7A as t3e $rinci$al safe 3aven an< center of eEbolla3 o$erations in t3e
Americas'. T3is is $articularly <isturbin- as 0ran is sus$ecte< of $ursuin- a nuclear &ea$on
&3ile simultaneously fun<in- eEbolla3 close to t3e =S bor<er. T3erefore> t3ere maIor concerns
t3at if 0ran obtains a nuclear &ea$on it mi-3t s3are t3e &ea$on &it3 eEbolla3. T3ere are t&o
maIor eEbolla3 net&or?s o$eratin- in t3e Americas un<er t3e <irection of t3e 0ranian Pu<s
1orce. T3e first is t3e %assere<<ine net&or?> o$erate< by a former Bebanese citiEen t3at became
a +eneEuelan an< is no& t3e secon<!ran?in- <i$lomatic official to Syria. e currently resi<es on
Mar-arita 0slan< an< runs money laun<erin- o$erations for t3e -rou$. T3e ot3er net&or? is
$ur$orte<ly run by oIIat al!2slam Mo3sen 6abbani> a culutral attac3Q from 0ran &3o is
involve< in various recruitment activities an< freGuently travels un<er false $a$ers in Batin
America. T3e t&o net&or?s to-et3er ma?e u$ t3e maIority of eEbolla35s activity in t3e
Americas. %o& bac? to t3e cartels. 43y is t3e lin? bet&een eEbolla3 an< Bos Oetas so
im$ortantR T3e main concern is t3at if eEbolla3 an< Bos Oetas are coo$eratin- on <ru-s
(&3ic3 t3ey are to t3e tune of 3un<re<s of millions)> t3en &3y &oul< t3ey not coo$erate on
&ea$onsR eEbolla3 an< ot3er extremists may be &illin- to ex$ort t3eir ?no&le<-e of 02,s to
t3e cartels. T3e relations3i$ bet&een eEbolla3 an< Bos Oetas a$$ears to 3ave alrea<y ex$an<e<
beyon< <ru-s. 0n Jctober 2D11> t3e =S aut3orities reveale< t3at t3ere &as an attem$t ma<e by
0ran to assassinate t3e Sau<i ambassa<or on =S soil.
/FF
1AC: Mexico Security Affirmative <
-!us" 'e )resent t!e follo'ing 40A.:
-!e (nited States federal government s!ould
su&stantially increase its economic
engagement to'ard Mexico &y )roviding
financial assistance to Mexico for violence
)revention )rograms near t!e (S-Mexico
&order#
/FF
Contention -'o is Solvency: 6ncreasing economic assistance to Mexico to
strengt!en &order security 'ill decrease drug violence#
1$ S!ifting focus in t!e drug 'ar to'ard community violence )revention
creates em)irically )roven" local solutions#
O%.,60" 13
(S3annon> Senior 1ello& for Batin America Stu<ies at Council on 1orei-n 6elationsA #6efocusin-
=.S.!Mexico Security Coo$eration>' ,ec> 3tt$://&&&.cfr.or-/mexico/refocusin-!us!mexico!
security!coo$eration/$2L5L5)
T3e nee< to a<a$t to t3e c3an-in- realities in Mexico coinci<es &it3 $olitical c3an-e. Jn
,ecember 1> 2D12> 2nriGue :ena %ieto became $resi<ent. ,urin- 3is cam$ai-n> 3e $romise< to
s3ift t3e countryMs current security strate-y a&ay from combatin- <ru- traffic?in- to&ar<
re<ucin- violence. T3e =nite< States 3as an o$$ortunity &it3 t3is ne& a<ministration an<
le-islative branc3 to $us3 $ast t3e current limits on security coo$eration an< im$lementation.
T3e =.S. -overnment s3oul< continue to $rovi<e bet&een S25D million an< S*DD million a year
in Meri<a money. T3ese fun<s> &3ic3 are mana-e< by t3e State ,e$artmentMs 7ureau of
0nternational %arcotics an< Ba& 2nforcement (0%B)> s3oul< $rioritiEe civilian (versus military)
la& enforcement institutions> an< fun< trainin- $ro-rams an< ot3er efforts to $rofessionaliEe
MexicoMs $olice forces an< transform its Iustice system. Bon-!term sustainable security &ill only
exist &3en Mexico 3as a stron- civilian!base< rule of la&> able to ta?e on an< $unis3 all ty$es of
criminal activity. 0n a<<ition> =.S. an< Mexican Ioint efforts s3oul< concentrate on realiEin- t3e
ot3er so!far!ne-lecte< $illars of t3e Meri<a 0nitiative> $articularly mo<erniEin- t3e bor<er an<
en-a-in- citiEens an< communities. Jn t3e bor<er> t3e =nite< States s3oul< u$-ra<e its roa<s>
bri<-es> an< 1AST lanes (ex$ress lanes for truste< <rivers)> as &ell as increase t3e number of
=.S. customs officers> a-ricultural s$ecialists> an< su$$ort staff to 3el$ facilitate le-al tra<e an<
i<entify an< ?ee$ out illicit -oo<s. To finance t3e multibillion <ollar cost of mo<erniEin- t3e
bor<er> t3e =.S. Con-ress s3oul< $ass t3e %A,7an? 2n3ancement Act (.6. 2218) or similar
le-islation> to allo& t3e %ort3 American ,evelo$ment 7an? to su$$ort infrastructure $roIects in
t3e bor<er re-ionsA currently t3e ban? is limite< $rimarily to environmental initiatives. An< it
s3oul< also reaut3oriEe an< refun< t3e Coor<inate< 7or<er 0nfrastructure :ro-ram> &3ic3
mana-e< fe<eral fun<s <e<icate< for bor<er area roa<s an< infrastructure. 0n terms of
[Evidence continues next page, no text deleted]
/FF
[ONeil evidence continues, no text deleted]
reinforcin- local communities> t3is involves not Iust $articular $ro-rams but reorientin- =.S.
resources an< $ro-rams in Mexico to focus on state an< local la& enforcement an< Iustice
institutions> &3ere violence an< insecurity are most concentrate< an< <evastatin-. T3is &ill
mean millions more in fun<s for t3e =.S. A-ency for 0nternational ,evelo$mentMs (=SA0,)
community $roIects an< yout3 $ro-rams> as &ell as 0%BMs trainin- of state an< munici$al $olice
(as o$$ose< to Iust fe<eral!level officers). A s3ift to t3e local level &oul< also enable
$olicyma?ers an< =.S.!su$$orte< $ro-rams to reco-niEe an< a<<ress t3e varyin- nature of t3e
violence. 0n cities suc3 as Ciu<a< @uTreE> local -an-s to<ay are $er3a$s as t3reatenin- as
transnational <ru- cartels. =SA0, s3oul< s3are mo<els <evelo$e< an< im$lemente< in =.S.
cities to <eal &it3 -an- $roblems> suc3 as t3ose in 7oston an< Bos An-eles an< C3ica-oMs
J$eration Ceasefire initiatives. 0n a<<ition> it s3oul< s3are t3e =nite< StatesM ex$eriences &it3
community $olicin- strate-ies> alon-si<e basic trainin- an< vettin- $ro-rams t3at cultivate a
close &or?in- relations3i$ bet&een la& enforcement officers an< t3ose t3ey $rotect. T3e =nite<
States s3oul< also move its <ru- $olicies a&ay from era<ication an< inter<iction abroa< an<
incarceration at 3ome to -reater fun<in- for $revention an< re3abilitation> in or<er to re<uce
t3e <eman< su$$lie< by or-aniEe< crime. =n<er t3e <irection of t3e 43ite ouse Jffice on
%ational ,ru- Control :olicy an< t3e =.S. ,e$artments of ealt3 an< uman Services>
2<ucation> an< @ustice> ne& $olicies s3oul< inclu<e t3e ex$ansion of $romisin- $ilot $ro-rams
t3at <eal &it3 a<<iction> suc3 as a&aiiMs J$$ortunity :robation &it3 2nforcement (J:2)
$ro-ram> &3ic3 by s&iftly $unis3in- $arolees &3o test $ositive for <ru-s 3as successfully
lo&ere< reci<ivism amon- a 3eavy!<ru-!use $o$ulation. T3ou-3 some &ill $refer to continue an
era<ication an< inter<ictionFfocuse< international <ru- control re-ime> t3e tens of billions of
<ollars s$ent <urin- t3e no& over forty!year &ar on <ru-s in Mexico an< Batin America su--est
t3e nee< for a revise< $olicy a$$roac3. T3e outline< initiatives 3ave a -reater c3ance of re<ucin-
violence (if not <ru- flo&s) in Mexico by stren-t3enin- $olice forces> court systems> an<
communities. T3e bor<er im$rovements> moreover> &ill li?ely benefit bot3 t3e =.S. an<
Mexican economies> &3ic3 can 3ave in<irect $ositive effects by $rovi<in- -reater le-al
o$$ortunities to youn- $eo$le. 0n t3e en<> MexicoMs security &ill <e$en< on t3e actions an<
<ecisions of Mexico. 7ut t3ere is muc3 t3e =nite< States can <o to 3el$ or 3in<er t3e $rocess. A
transition to a <emilitariEe< Iustice an< a community!focuse< a$$roac3 to =.S. security
assistance &ill 3el$ Mexico establis3 more effective an< lon-!lastin- tools for combatin- crime
an< violence.
/FF
3$ -!e (#S# can )rovide economic assistance t!roug! (SA6D funding
targeted at crime )revention in Mexico# ,m)irically t!ese )rograms reduce
violence#
S,,05, A.D =6.50,A" 11
(Clare> S$ecialist in Batin American AffairsA Cristin> Analyst in ,omestic Security &it3
Con-ressional 6esearc3 ServiceA #=.S.!Mexican Security Coo$eration: T3e MQri<a 0nitiative an<
7eyon<>' 1/1/> 3tt$://&&&.fas.or-/s-$/crs/ro&/6/1*/L.$<f)
0n A$ril 2D11> t3e =.S. an< Mexican -overnments formally a$$rove< a bi!national $illar four
strate-y. 1DL T3e strate-y focuses on t3ree obIectives: (1) stren-t3enin- fe<eral civic $lannin-
ca$acity to $revent an< re<uce crimeA (2) bolsterin- t3e ca$acity of state an< local -overnments
to im$lement crime $revention an< re<uction activitiesA an< (*) increasin- en-a-ement &it3 at!
ris? yout3. 11D =.S.!fun<e< $illar four activities com$lement t3e &or? of t3e Mexico5s %ational
Center for Crime :revention an< CitiEen :artici$ation> an entity &it3in t3e 0nterior ,e$artment
t3at im$lemente< $roIects in 3i-3 crime areas in 2*; cities in 2D12 &3ere local aut3orities &ere
ma?in- similar investments in crime $revention. 0n su$$ort of t3is ne& strate-y> =SA0,
launc3e< a t3ree!year> S15 million Crime an< +iolence :revention $ro-ram in nine tar-et
communities i<entifie< by t3e Mexican -overnment in Ciu<a< @uTreE> Monterrey> %uevo BeUn>
an< TiIuana> 7aIa California. T3e $ro-ram su$$orts t3e <evelo$ment of community strate-ies to
re<uce crime an< violence in t3e tar-et localities> inclu<in- outreac3 to at!ris? yout3> im$rove<
citiEen!$olice collaboration> an< $artners3i$s &it3 $rivate sector enter$rises. More recently>
=SA0, a&ar<e< S1D million in local -rants to six civil society or-aniEations for innovative crime
$revention $roIects t3at en-a-e at!ris? yout3 an< t3eir families. =SA0, also su$$orts a S1
million evaluation of crime in t3e tar-et communities t3at &ill 3el$ t3e =.S. an< Mexican
-overnments un<erstan< t3e ris? factors contributin- <irectly to increase< violence an< enable
bot3 -overnments to i<entify successful mo<els for re$lication.
CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 2/C >ar)s #+te!sio!s
/FF
3AC Harms: A>t - ?1 @Coo)eration .o'A B1>3C 11
-!ey say t!at t!e (#S# and Mexico are already coo)erating on &order security" &ut
current efforts are not 'oring#
1$ Mexico is failing to create reforms t!at 'ill decrease violence# More
assistance is needed to create results# ,xtend our 1AC *O+,*-S A.D
/A0S,* evidence#
3$ ,conomic assistance needs to &e sent in t!e s!ort-term to im)rove
coo)eration#
/A0S,*" 17
(6ay> :3,.> senior $olicy analyst at T3e erita-e 1oun<ationA #=.S. Strate-y A-ainst Mexican
,ru- Cartels: 1la&e< an< =ncertain>' //28>
3tt$://&&&.3erita-e.or-/researc3/re$orts/2D1D/D//us!strate-y!a-ainst!mexican!<ru-!cartels!
fla&e<!an<!uncertain)
Jverall> t3e levels of coo$eration an< trust a$$ear to be im$rovin-> but $reservin- t3ese -ains
&ill be critical for t3e lon-!term sustainability of Ioint coo$eration. A maIor issue &it3 t3e
MQri<a 0nitiative 3as been t3e $ainfully slo& <elivery of $romise< assistance. A ,ecember 2DDL
re$ort by t3e 9overnment Accountability Jffice (9AJ) foun< t3at at t3e en< of 1V 2DDL
(Se$tember *D> 2DDL)> a <isa$$ointin- * $ercent of a$$ro$riate< assistance 3a< been <elivere<
to t3e Mexican -overnment. . . . T3e <isbursement of MQri<a fun<s 3as also been t3e subIect of
<is$utes bet&een Con-ress an< t3e A<ministration over 3uman ri-3ts.
1$ Mexico needs ne' assistance )rograms to continue coo)erating on
security#
/A0S,* A.D D(C5,*MA." 11
(6ay> :3,.> Senior :olicy Analyst for Batin America at erita-e 1oun<ationA an< @essica>
6esearc3 Associate in t3e ,ou-las an< Sara3 Allison Center for 1orei-n :olicy Stu<ies at
erita-e 1oun<ationA #=.S.FMexico 7or<er: Ti-3ter 7or<er Security 6eGuires Mexico5s
Coo$eration>' 2/2D> 3tt$://&&&.3erita-e.or-/researc3/re$orts/2D1*/D2/us!mexico!bor<er!
ti-3ter!bor<er!security!reGuires!mexico!s!coo$eration)
T3e Mexican -overnment 3as a<<itional $roIects on t3e <ra&in- boar< t3at inclu<e a -en<arme
force t3at is able to $olice rural areas an<> $otentially> a bor<er $atrol. Mexico also loo?s to stem
t3e flo& of Central Americans across its sout3ern bor<er> many of &3om 3ave t3e =.S. as t3eir
inten<e< <estination. 7ot3 t3e =.S. an< Mexico are concerne< about t3e ca$acity of criminal
or-aniEations to &ea?en certain Central American nations to t3e $oint of #state failure.' 7ot3
si<es s3are a common -oal of <ismantlin- t3e criminal conveyor belts t3at t3rive off ille-al flo&s
of $eo$le or <ru-s to t3e =.S. As Con-ress &or?s t3rou-3 t3ese issues> it &ill nee< continue<
/FF
assurances t3at Mexico &ill $lay its $art as a res$onsible nei-3bor. Con-ress t3erefore s3oul<
&or? to stren-t3en incentives t3at s$ee< t3e le-al movements of $eo$les an< -oo<s from abroa<
&3ile <eterrin- ille-al movements.
/FF
3AC Harms: A>t - ?1 @Coo)eration .o'A B3>3C 14
4$ 0a' enforcement reform in Mexico is currently slo'-)aced
/A0S,*" MC.,600 A.D D(C5,*MA." 11
(6ay> :3,.> Senior :olicy Analyst for Batin America at erita-e 1oun<ationA @ena 7a?er> Senior
:olicy Analyst for omelan< Security in t3e Allison Center for 1orei-n :olicy Stu<ies at
erita-e 1oun<ationA @essica> 6esearc3 Assistant in t3e Allison Center for 1orei-n :olicy
Stu<ies> at T3e erita-e 1oun<ationA #T3e uman Tra-e<y of 0lle-al 0mmi-ration: 9reater
2fforts %ee<e< to Combat Smu--lin- an< +iolence>' 8/22>
3tt$://&&&.3erita-e.or-/researc3/re$orts/2D11/D8/t3e!3uman!tra-e<y!of!ille-al!
immi-ration!-reater!efforts!nee<e<!to!combat!smu--lin-!an<!violence)
+iolence a-ainst ille-al bor<er!crossers 3as become a re-ular occurrence aroun< lan< an< sea
bor<ers over t3e $ast <eca<e. Criminal acts committe< a-ainst ille-al immi-rants inclu<e
?i<na$$in-> robbery> extortion> sexual violence> an< <eat3 at t3e 3an<s of cartels> smu--lers>
an< even corru$t Mexican -overnment officials. un<re<s of in<ivi<uals $eris3 tryin- to cross
t3e =.S. sout3&est bor<er eac3 yearK<ue to 3eat ex3austion> <ro&nin-> an< fallin- into t3e
3an<s of t3e &ron- $eo$le.(2) 0n Mexico> violence a-ainst ille-al immi-rants in transit 3as
ex$lo<e< since :resi<ent 1eli$e Cal<eron be-an 3is battle a-ainst t3e country5s transnational
criminal or-aniEations in 2DD8. ,es$ite some success in t3&artin- t3ese or-aniEations> t3e slo&
$ace of Iustice an< la& enforcement reform> as &ell as ram$ant corru$tion> 3as allo&e<
or-aniEe< crime to continue to t3rive in Mexico. Bi?e&ise> as Mexico attem$ts to clam$ <o&n on
narcotics o$erations> t3ese increasin-ly multifacete< criminal or-aniEations turn to ot3er
sources of income> suc3 as 3uman smu--lin- an< sex traffic?in-.
/FF
3AC Harms: A>t - ?3 @.o .uclear -errorismA B1>1C 15
-!ey say t!at t!ere is a lo' ris of nuclear terrorism" &ut # # #
1$ -errorists are 'oring to acEuire nuclear 'ea)ons" and insecurity at t!e
&order creates multi)le 'ea )oints for entry into t!e (nited States#
,xtend our 1AC A.A0:S6S 6.-,006;,.C,#
3$ A ne' terrorist attac raises glo&al )olitical tensions and causes
misguided res)onses t!at lead to accidental nuclear 'ar 'it! *ussia and
C!ina#
A:SO." 17 (6obert> :rofessor of Strate-ic Stu<ies an< ,irector of t3e Centre for Strate-ic
Stu<ies: %e& Oealan< at t3e +ictoria =niversity of 4ellin-ton> #:o&er or :osturin-R :olicy
Availability an< Con-ressional 0nWuence on =.S. :resi<ential ,ecisions to =se 1orce'> After a
Terrorist %uclear Attac?: 2nvisa-in- Catalytic 2ffects>' Stu<ies in Conflict X Terrorism> @uly>
**:;)
7ut t3ese t&o nuclear &orl<sKa non!state actor nuclear attac? an< a catastro$3ic interstate
nuclear exc3an-eKare not necessarily se$arable. 0t is Iust $ossible t3at some sort of terrorist
attac?> an< es$ecially an act of nuclear terrorism> coul< $reci$itate a c3ain of events lea<in- to a
massive exc3an-e of nuclear &ea$ons bet&een t&o or more of t3e states t3at $ossess t3em. . . .
Some $ossibilities> 3o&ever remote> <o su--est t3emselves. 1or exam$le> . . . . if t3e act of
nuclear terrorism came as a com$lete sur$rise> an< American officials refuse< to believe t3at a
terrorist -rou$ &as fully res$onsible (or res$onsible at all) sus$icion &oul< s3ift imme<iately to
state $ossessors. 6ulin- out 4estern ally countries li?e t3e =nite< Cin-<om an< 1rance> an<
$robably 0srael an< 0n<ia as &ell> aut3orities in 4as3in-ton &oul< be left &it3 a very s3ort list
consistin- of %ort3 Corea> $er3a$s 0ran if its $ro-ram continues> an< $ossibly :a?istan. 7ut at
&3at sta-e &oul< 6ussia an< C3ina be <efinitely rule< out in t3is 3i-3 sta?es -ame of nuclear
Clue<oR 0n $articular> if t3e act of nuclear terrorism occurre< a-ainst a bac?<ro$ of existin-
tension in 4as3in-ton5s relations &it3 6ussia an</or C3ina> an< at a time &3en t3reats 3a<
alrea<y been tra<e< bet&een t3ese maIor $o&ers> &oul< officials an< $olitical lea<ers not be
tem$te< to assume t3e &orstR Jf course> t3e c3ances of t3is occurrin- &oul< only seem to
increase if t3e =nite< States &as alrea<y involve< in some sort of limite< arme< conflict &it3
6ussia an</or C3ina> or if t3ey &ere confrontin- eac3 ot3er from a <istance in a $roxy &ar> as
unli?ely as t3ese <evelo$ments may seem at t3e $resent time. . . . 4as3in-ton5s early res$onse
to a terrorist nuclear attac? on its o&n soil mi-3t also raise t3e $ossibility of an un&ante< (an<
nuclear ai<e<) confrontation &it3 6ussia an</or C3ina. 1or exam$le> in t3e noise an< confusion
<urin- t3e imme<iate aftermat3 of t3e terrorist nuclear attac?> t3e =.S. $resi<ent mi-3t be
ex$ecte< to $lace t3e country5s arme< forces> inclu<in- its nuclear arsenal> on a 3i-3er sta-e of
alert. 0n suc3 a tense environment> &3en careful $lannin- runs u$ a-ainst t3e friction of reality>
it is Iust $ossible t3at Mosco& an</or C3ina mi-3t mista?enly rea< t3is as a si-n of =.S.
/FF
intentions to use force (an< $ossibly nuclear force) a-ainst t3em. 0n t3at situation> t3e
tem$tations to $reem$t suc3 actions mi-3t -ro&> alt3ou-3 it must be a<mitte< t3at any
$reem$tion &oul< $robably still meet &it3 a <evastatin- res$onse.
/FF
1$ -error connections in Mexico 'ill tae advantage of 'ea &order
coo)eration to create attac )lans#
/A0S,*" 17
(6ay> :3,.> senior $olicy analyst at T3e erita-e 1oun<ationA #eEbolla3 Terrorists Jn Jur
Sout3ern 7or<er>' ;/1L> 3tt$://&&&.3erita-e.or-/researc3/commentary/2D1D/D;/3eEbolla3!
terrorists!on!our!sout3ern!bor<er)
eEbolla3 also &oul< 3ave a natural interest in Mexico5s <ru- cartels> &3ic3 account for LDY of
t3e cocaine flo&in- to more t3an 2/D =.S. cities. T3e cartels are all!$ur$ose> amoral criminal
or-aniEations Guic? to en-a-e in all t3in-s nefariousKfrom <ru- <ealin-s to assassinations>
?i<na$$in-> an< mi-rant smu--lin-K$rovi<e< t3ey5re $rofitable. 0f eEbolla3 ba- men can <o
business &it3 Mexico5s cartels> so can its traine< terrorists. 0n t3e flui<> -lobaliEe< stru--le
base< on t3e $rinci$les of asymmetric &arfare> terrorists constantly see? out our vulnerabilities
an< soft tar-ets. Con-ress&oman Sue Myric? (6!%.C.) is ri-3t to soun< an alarm about t3e
eEbolla3 t3reat. T3e Jbama a<ministration must continue to &or? closely &it3 Mexican
aut3orities to trac? <o&n any eEbolla3 connections. T3e =.S. s3oul< also 3el$ stan< u$
Mexico5s $rofessional la& enforcement an< intelli-ence collection ca$abilities.
4$ -errorists are ra)idly 'oring on getting nuclear 'ea)ons to smuggle
across t!e &order from Mexico#
AM,*6CA. -H6.5,*" 17
(%ora3 :etersen> #=nite< States is M4oefully =n$re$are<M for %uclear Terrorism>' L/1D>
3tt$://&&&.americant3in?er.com/blo-/2D1D/DL/unite<ZstatesZisZ&oefullyZun$r.3tml)
So&ell5s fears of a nuclear attac? from 0ran &ere at t3e forefront of 3is &arnin-A yet> anot3er
continual t3reat &3ic3 cannot be <ecou$le< from t3e ris? of nuclear terrorism is t3e crisis of our
virtually un-uar<e< bor<er &it3 Mexico. 0n 2DD/> Time ma-aEine re$orte<: #S3arif al!Masri> an
2-y$tian &3o &as ca$ture< in late Au-ust near :a?istanMs bor<er &it3 0ran an< Af-3anistan> 3as
tol< 3is interro-ators of Nal!Pae<aMs interest in movin- nuclear materials from 2uro$e to eit3er
t3e =.S. or Mexico>N accor<in- to a re$ort circulatin- amon- =.S. -overnment officials. Masri
also sai< al!Pae<a 3as consi<ere< $lans to Nsmu--le nuclear materials to Mexico> t3en
o$eratives &oul< carry material into t3e =.S.N . . . S3u?riIuma3 is #a traine< nuclear tec3nician
alle-e<ly tas?e< by al Pae<a &it3 carryin- off an NAmerican iros3ima' . . . . <es$ite t3e <an-er
of nuclear terrorism> little 3as c3an-e< over t3e years re-ar<in- bor<er security> or lac? t3ereof.
0n Au-ust> 0nvestor5s 7usiness ,aily re$orte< t3at ille-al immi-rants from terrorist!s$onsorin-
countries continually enter t3e =nite< States t3rou-3 t3e Mexican bor<er: #0n t3e last t3ree
years> t3e ,e$artment of omelan< Security cau-3t an< release< /.1 ille-al aliens from nations
<esi-nate< as state s$onsors of terrorism an< Ncountries of interest>N an< t3ose /.1 are no&
fu-itives. T3at may seem li?e a small number out of t3e t3ousan<s t3at arrive every <ay> but it
too? only 1L terrorists to fly $assen-er Iets into t3e 4orl< Tra<e Center> t3e :enta-on an< tar-et
/FF
t3e 43ite ouse . . . %ot only are &e #&oefully un$re$are<' for an nuclear attac?> &e are
inexcusably allo&in- con<itions &3ic3 -reatly increase t3e $ossibility of one.
/FF
5$ -errorists 'ill tae advantage of lax &order security to launc!
devastating attacs#
/A0S,*" 11
(6ay> Senior :olicy Analyst s$ecialiEin- in Batin America at T3e erita-e 1oun<ation> #0ran>
Mexican Oetas> an< t3e Sout3ern Terror 2x$ress>' 1D/12>
3tt$://blo-.3erita-e.or-/2D11/1D/12/iran!mexican!Eetas!an<!t3e!sout3ern!terror!ex$ress/)
A $ersistent t3reat scenario a-ainst t3e =.S. 3as been forei-n terrorist or-aniEationsKactin-
in<e$en<ently or in coo$eration &it3 violent transnational criminal or-aniEations> an< $er3a$s
bac?e< by anti!American re-imes in t3e re-ionKlaunc3in- a terrorist attac? from across our
sout3ern bor<er. 0t is a scenario t3e Jbama A<ministration 3as reco-niEe< but -enerally
minimiEe<. 1or exam$le> t3e =.S. State ,e$artment5s 2D1D Country 6e$orts on Terrorism
re$orte<: T3e t3reat of a transnational terrorist attac? remaine< lo& for most countries in t3e
4estern emis$3ere. T3ere &ere no ?no&n o$erational cells of eit3er al!Pa5i<a! or iEballa3!
relate< -rou$s in t3e 3emis$3ere> alt3ou-3 i<eolo-ical sym$at3iEers in Sout3 America an< t3e
Caribbean continue< to $rovi<e financial an< moral su$$ort to t3ese an< ot3er terrorist -rou$s
in t3e Mi<<le 2ast an< Sout3 Asia. T3e continue< unfol<in- of t3e 0ran $lot to assassinate t3e
Sau it became clear t3at co!<efen<ant Manssor
Arbabsiar> a naturaliEe< 0ranian livin- in Texas> travele< re$eate<ly to Mexico in searc3 of 3ire<
assassins &illin- to &or? for 0ranian $ayoffs. T3ere Arbabsiar t3ou-3t 3e &as enlistin- t3e
services of Mexico5s <ea<liest> most rut3less criminal or-aniEation> t3e Oetas> to carry out t3e
contract assassination in exc3an-e for S1.5 million in 0ranian cas3. T3e Oetas> &it3 t3eir
$aramilitary tactics an< rut3less <isre-ar< for 3uman life> &oul< ma?e a $erfect fit &it3 terror!
min<e< 0ranians. Bittle &on<er Te3ran &oul< see? to enlist t3em as 3ire< executioners to
con<uct assassinations an< &rea? 3avoc in 4as3in-ton> ,.C. T3e uncoverin- of t3e 0ran $lot is
a &a?e!u$ call 3ere in t3e =.S. but also in t3e 4estern emis$3ere. 0t com$els us ta?e an even
tou-3er stance a-ainst t3ose &3o ea-erly embrace 0ran an< act as an 0ranian con<uit into t3e
4estern emis$3ere. u-o C3aveE5s +eneEuelaKfollo&e< by nations li?e 7olivia> 2cua<or>
%icara-ua> an< CubaKcertainly 3ea< t3e list an< reGuire ever!increasin- scrutiny. T3e -ro&in-
eEbolla3 t3reat 3as been &ell!<ocumente< by Ambassa<or 6o-er 1. %orie-a an< @ose 6.
Car<enas in #T3e Mountin- eEbolla3 T3reat in Batin America' an< by investi-ative Iournalist
,ou-las 1ara3. eEbolla3 &or?s closely &it3 0ran5s 6evolutionary 9uar< an< Po<s 1orce> &3ose
o$erative> 93olam S3a?uri> &as in<icte< alon- &it3 Arbabsiar in t3e $lot.
/FF
/FF
3AC Harms: A>t - ?1 @Fiolence is DecreasingA B1>1C 19
-!ey say t!at &order violence is decreasing# =alse#
1$ Fiolence is increasing due to drug cartels ex)anding t!eir influence in
Mexico# -!eir evidence is mainly a&out t!e Mexican economy" and isn%t
s)ecific to &order violence# ,xtend our 1AC 4,*56.S A.D 40AC6DO
evidence#
3$ +order violence ex)anding due to drug cartel com)etition#
S,,05, A.D =6.50,A" 11
Mexico is a maIor $ro<ucer an< su$$lier to t3e =.S. mar?et of 3eroin> met3am$3etamine> an<
mariIuana an< t3e maIor transit country for more t3an L5Y of t3e cocaine sol< in t3e =nite<
States. ; Mexico is also a consumer of illicit <ru-s> $articularly in nort3ern states &3ere criminal
or-aniEations 3ave been $ayin- t3eir &or?ers in $ro<uct rat3er t3an in cas3. 0llicit <ru- use in
Mexico increase< from 2DD2 to 2DD.> an< t3en remaine< relatively level from 2DD. to 2D11. .
Accor<in- to t3e 2D11 %ational ,ru- T3reat Assessment > Mexican <ru- traffic?in-
or-aniEations an< t3eir affiliates #<ominate (in) t3e su$$ly an< &3olesale <istribution of most
illicit <ru-s in t3e =nite< States' an< are $resent more t3an one t3ousan< =.S. cities. T3e
violence an< brutality of t3e Mexican <ru-!traffic?in- o$erations (,TJs) 3as escalate< as t3ey
3ave battle< for control of lucrative <ru- traffic?in- routes into t3e =nite< States an< local <ru-
<istribution net&or?s in Mexico. =.S. an< Mexican officials no& often refer to t3e ,TJs as
transnational criminal or-aniEations (TCJs) since t3ey 3ave increasin-ly branc3e< out into
ot3er criminal activities> inclu<in- 3uman traffic?in-> ?i<na$$in-> arme< robbery> an<
extortion. 1rom 2DD; to 2D11> ?i<na$$in- an< violent ve3icular t3efts increase< at even faster
annual rates t3an overall 3omici<es in Mexico. 1D T3e ex$an<in- tec3niGues use< by t3e ,TJs>
&3ic3 3ave inclu<e< t3e use of car bombs an< -rena<es> 3ave le< some sc3olars> =.S. officials>
an< Members of Con-ress to li?en ,TJs5 tactics to t3ose of arme< insur-encies. 11
/FF
3AC Harms: A>t - ?1 @Fiolence is DecreasingA B3>1C 1<
1$ Mexican drug cartels are &ecoming lie t!eir o'n national militaries
/A0S,*" 17
7ecause t3ey control entry into t3e =.S.> t3e Mexican states of 7aIa California> C3i3ua3ua>
9uerrero> Mic3oacan> an< Sinaloa account for nearly ;5 $ercent of Mexico5s <ru- mur<ers.
Ciu<a< @uareE> across t3e 6io 9ran<e from 2l :aso> 3as <evelo$e< a re$utation as t3e <ea<liest
city on t3e $lanet. 0n t3e $ast five years> more t3an 1>DDD $olice an< military officers 3ave lost
t3eir lives in t3e fi-3t. Tar-ets of cartel -unmen 3ave inclu<e< former -enerals> active!<uty
military officers> an< 3ea<s of fe<eral an< local $olice a-encies> as &ell as in<ivi<uals in &itness
$rotection $ro-rams> $rint an< me<ia Iournalists> an< even recoverin- a<<icts see?in- 3el$ in
<ru- treatment an< re3abilitation centers. Moreover> Mexico5s <ru- violence 3as s$a&ne< a
variety of 3ybri<> 3y$er!violent criminal or-aniEations suc3 as t3e cartel!li?e Oetas t3at are able
to em$loy military!li?e $rofessionalism cou$le< &it3 terrorist!li?e met3o<s of in<iscriminate
mur<ersK tactics ominously ne& to %ort3 America. Mexico5s Oetas are stu<ie< closely an< &it3
consi<erable intensity by =.S. la& enforcement an< security strate-ists.(8) Security analysts
<escribe Mexico5s transition from -an-sterism to <an-erous 3ybri< forms of #$aramilitary
terrorism' &it3 #-uerrilla tactics.' T3e ca$abilities of t3e Oetas> for exam$le> inclu<e
so$3isticate< intelli-ence!-at3erin-> often &it3 insi<er information> coor<inate< military
actions> an< <e$loyment of concentrate< levels of let3al fire$o&er> as &ell as an ability to ex$loit
ne& vulnerabilities suc3 as extortion an< t3e &3olesale t3eft of oil from $i$elines. 0n essence>
Mexico5s narco!cartels 3ave constructe< &3at one ex$ert labele< #a $arallel -overnment' in
&3ic3 $o&er is s3are< bet&een electe< officials an< <ru- barons.(.)
/FF
3AC Harms: A>t - ?1 @Fiolence is DecreasingA B 1 > 1 C 37
4$ Drug violence is no' t!reatening to im)lode t!e Mexican government
and turn it into a failed nation-state#
=A*AH" 13
(@ose$3> e<itor!in!c3ief for 4orl<%et,aily> #Count Mexico amon- <ea<ly faile< states>' D1/2;>
3tt$://&&&.&n<.com/2D12/D1/count!mexico!amon-!<ea<ly!faile<!states/)
Mexican $resi<ent 1eli$e Cal<eron 3as lost t3e &ar a-ainst <ru- cartels for control of 3is nation>
an< t3e can<i<ates for next @uly5s $resi<ential election 3ave all but surren<ere< to t3e <ru-
lor<s alrea<y> creatin- a faile< state on t3e =.S. bor<er an< un<erminin- national security>
analysts 3ave sai< in a re$ort from @ose$3 1ara35s 92 7ulletin. #6elative $eace an< calm coul<
set in <urin- t3e secon< 3alf of 2D12 in Mexico> but if it <oes it &ill only re$resent t3e fruits of
<efeat rat3er t3an victory>' accor<in- to t3e o$en source intelli-ence -rou$ Ban-ley 0ntelli-ence
%et&or?> or B09%2T> &3ic3 is ma<e u$ of former Central 0ntelli-ence A-ency analysts an<
officials. As far bac? as 2DDL> t3e :enta-on 3a< &arne< in a re$ort t3at Mexico &as $erilously
close to become a faile< state. Since t3en> con<itions 3ave only -ro&n &orse. 0ts mur<erously
violent <ru- &ars 3ave s$ille< over into t3e =.S. to&ns an< cities alon- t3e =.S. sout3ern bor<er>
an< t3at 3as raise< =.S. national security concerns. 4it3 =.S. 3el$> Cal<eron 3a< ta?en on t3e
<ru- cartels &3ic3 3ave exercise< <e facto control over Mexico for years. Cal<eron 3a< or<ere<
t3e Mexican army to fi-3t t3e cartels an< re$lace local $olice aut3orities &3o 3a< been
intimi<ate< into inaction an< &ere bein- bribe<> allo&in- t3e cartels> in effect> to become t3e
-overnin- $o&er in areas li?e Ciu<a< @uareE. %o&> t3e violence 3as s$rea< to t3e interior of t3e
country an< to suc3 areas as +eracruE in +eracruE state> Monterrey in %uevo Beon state>
Matamoros in Tamauli$as state an< ,uran-o in ,uran-o state. ,es$ite efforts to sto$ t3e
cartels> ?illin-s 3ave -reatly risen. ,ocuments release< recently by t3e Mexican -overnment
reveal t3at ?illin-s 3ave increase< 11 $ercent <urin- t3e first nine mont3s of 2D11 to 12>LD*.
com$are< to 11>5.* a year earlier.
5$ Mexican drug violence is starting to s)ill-over into t!e (#S#
S,,05, A.D =6.50,A" 11
T3e $revalence of <ru- traffic?in-!relate< violence &it3in an< bet&een t3e ,TJs in MexicoK
an< $articularly in t3ose areas of Mexico near t3e =.S.!Mexico bor<erK3as -enerate< concern
amon- =.S. $olicy ma?ers t3at t3is violence mi-3t s$ill over into t3e =nite< States. =.S. officials
<eny t3at t3e increase in <ru- traffic?in-!relate< violence in Mexico 3as resulte< in a si-nificant
s$illover of violence into t3e =nite< States> but t3ey ac?no&le<-e t3at t3e $ros$ect is a serious
concern. 21 1or instance> in A$ril 2D1D> t3e ,e$artment of omelan< Security (,S) issue< a
safety alert to la& enforcement officers in t3e 2l :aso area &arnin- t3at ,TJs an< associate<
/FF
-an-s may tar-et =.S. la& enforcement. 22 T3is alert came at a time &3en t3e Mexican ,TJs
3a< be-un to <irect more of t3eir violence at Mexican aut3orities an< to use ne& forms of
&ea$onry> inclu<in- sni$er rifles> -rena<es> an< car bombs.
/FF
3AC Harms: A>t - ?4 @Drugs are DecreasingA B1>3C 31
-!ey say t!at drugs are &ecoming !arder to ex)ort and t!at t!e drug
industry is under t!reat" &ut # # #
1$ -!e Mexican drug &usiness is generating a massive amount of money"
one of t!e largest ty)es of &usiness in Mexico
/A0S,*" 17
T3e =.S.FMexico <ru- c3allen-e remains star? an< <isturbin-. Mexican!base< traffic?ers
smu--le an estimate< 5DD to ;DD metric tons of cocaine into t3e =.S. every year. Mexican ,TJs
or cartels 3ave <ominate< cocaine!smu--lin- into t3e =.S. increasin-ly since t3e 1LLDs. Mexico
is t3e to$ forei-n source of mariIuana> cultivatin- an< 3arvestin- an estimate< 15>.DD metric
tons in 2DD;. Cannabis is a 3i-3ly $rofitable mainstay for t3e Mexican cartels> re$orte<ly
accountin- for 5D to 8D $ercent of t3eir $rofits. Mexican <ru-!smu--lin- or-aniEations are also
ex$an<in- mariIuana $ro<uction insi<e t3e =.S. to increase $rofits an< minimiEe <etection.
Mexico is a maIor $rovi<er of 3eroin an< met3am$3etamines to t3e =.S. 2stimates of t3e
revenue -enerate< from illicit sales of <ru-s ran-e from S1* billion to S*. billion. Jnly Mexico5s
oil an< auto in<ustries -enerate -reater revenue streams.
3$ Fiolence &y drug trafficing organiGations along t!e (#S#-Mexico &order
is increasing#
S,,05, A.D =6.50,A" 11
7raEen violence $er$etrate< by <ru- traffic?in- or-aniEations (,TJs) an< ot3er criminal -rou$s
is t3reatenin- citiEen security an< -overnance in some $arts of Mexico> a country &it3 &3ic3 t3e
=nite< States s3ares a nearly 2>DDD mile bor<er an< S/8D billion in annual tra<e. Alt3ou-3 t3e
violence in Mexico 3as -enerally <ecline< since late 2D11> analysts estimate t3at it may 3ave
claime< more t3an 8D>DDD lives over t3e last six years. T3e violence 3as increase< =.S. concerns
about stability in Mexico> a ?ey $olitical an< economic ally> an< about t3e $ossibility of violence
s$illin- over into t3e =nite< States. Mexican ,TJs <ominate t3e =.S. illicit <ru- mar?et an< are
consi<ere< t3e -reatest <ru- traffic?in- t3reat facin- t3e =nite< States.
/FF
/FF
3AC Harms: A>t - ?4 @Drugs are DecreasingA B3>3C 33
1$ ,ven if drug sales 'ere decreasing" )rofits are increasing '!ic! allo's
terrorist grou)s to esta&lis! ground in Mexico#
/A0S,*" 17
Alt3ou-3 =.S. officials cannot confirm re$orts of t3e arrest @amel %asr recently in TiIuana> t3ey
s3oul< ac?no&le<-e t3at t3e re$orts are consistent &it3 increasin- concern t3at eEbolla3 is
see?in- an o$erational base in t3e Americas. %asr &as no or<inary tourist or &oul<!be
immi-rant. e is a ma<e member of t3e Bebanese!base< terror -rou$> eEbolla3. Mexican
aut3orities 3ave release< fe& <etails about 3is arrest> but t3ey a$$ear to 3ave uncovere< a
net&or? traceable bac? to t3e terrorist -rou$5s 3ea<Guarters in t3e Mi<<le 2ast. T3e $ossible
arrest is not t3e first inci<ent in<icatin- eEbolla35s interest in establis3in- a beac33ea< in t3e
Americas. Bast mont3> :ara-uayan $olice arreste< Moussa Ali am<an> a naturaliEe< =.S.
citiEen. e 3a< been sou-3t by t3e =.S. since last %ovember> &3en 3e &as in<icte< for
involvement in bo-us $ass$orts> counterfeitin-> an< sellin- fa?e merc3an<ise to finance
eEbolla3 o$erations. Sout3 an< Central America 3ol< <efinite attractions for t3e terror cro&<.
1or starters> t3ere5s money. :rofits from t3e re-ion5s lucrative <ru- tra<e 3el$ fuel many
international terrorists. eEbolla3 craves a s3are of t3e action.
CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 2/C Sol$e!cy #+te!sio!s
/FF
3AC Solvency: A>t - ?1 @6mmigration =rom ,very'!ereA 3 1
-!ey say t!at illegal immigration comes from )laces ot!er t!an Mexico so
our )lan can%t solve" &ut # # #
1$ Our evidence is s)ecific to terrorists using 'ea )oints in t!e land &order
'it! Mexico to smuggle in 'ea)ons of mass destruction for attacs# -!ere is
no evidence t!at terrorists are trying to get into t!e (#S# from ot!er )laces#
3$ ,ven if not all 0atin American immigrants are from Mexico" most !ave to
cross t!e &order t!roug! Mexico#
/A0S,*" MC.,600 A.D D(C5,*MA." 11
1or many ille-al immi-rants> t3eir Iourney to t3e =nite< States <oes not be-in at America5s
sout3ern bor<er. Mexico serves as a startin- $oint as &ell as a $at3 of transit for $eo$le all
across Batin America see?in- ille-al entry into t3e =nite< States. Bast year> Mexico5s %ational
0mmi-ration 0nstitute (0%M) a$$re3en<e< an< re$atriate< a total of 82>1/1 ille-al immi-rants
&it3in Mexico5s bor<er. Jf t3e /DD>2*5 in<ivi<uals t3at t3e 0%M estimates enter Mexico every
year ille-ally> a$$roximately 15D>DDDKor *; $ercentKinten< to cross over into t3e =nite<
States. T3ese in<ivi<uals travel from t3eir 3ome countries t3rou-3out t3e re-ion to Mexico5s
;5D!mile s3are< bor<er &it3 9uatemala an< 7eliEe. 43ile t3e terrain is mountainous an<
Iun-le!covere<> t3ere are fe& c3ec?$oints alon- t3e crossin-> ma?in- it to be a 3os$itable
environment to many &oul<!be ille-al immi-rants. Vet> at Mexico5s sout3ern bor<er be-ins a
<an-erous Iourney of some 2>DDD miles to t3e =nite< States.
1$ -!is argument only a))lies to t!e terrorism !arm H it doesn%t address t!e
&order violence solvency#
/FF
3AC Solvency: A>t - ?3 @Mexico /on%t *eformA B1>3C 34
-!ey say t!at t!e Mexican government 'on%t im)lement &order security
c!anges" &ut # # #
1$ More assistance 'ill get Mexico on-&oard# 4ast (SA6D )rograms
targeting violence in Mexico !ave &een successful# Our /A0S,* evidence
is &etter &ecause it is em)irical" not t!eoretical#
3$ /it! security t!reats suc! as drug violence" Mexico !as s!o'n
'illingness to listen to t!e (#S#
S-A**" 11
(:amela> ,irector> =.S.!Mexico %et&or?> an< Associate :rofessor (%TT) =niversity 1ello&>
Center on :ublic ,i$lomacy at =niversity of Sout3ern CaliforniaA #=.S.!Mexico 6elations an<
Mexican ,omestic :olitics>' colle-e.usc.e<u/usmexnet/&$!content/u$loa<s/2D1D/1D/Cam$!
Jxfor<!$a$er!final.<oc)
Vet &3en t3e =nite< States $erceives a t3reat to its national security emanatin- from Mexico or
&3en Mexican stability a$$ears to be at ris?> Mexico5s autonomy narro&s once a-ain. 1ollo&in-
t3e Se$tember 11> 2DD1 terrorist attac?s on t3e 4orl< Tra<e Center an< t3e :enta-on> Mexican
$olicy autonomy eva$orate< lea<in- to a series of actions t3at res$on<e< $erfectly to =.S.
national interests. Mexico5s current <ifficulties &it3 <ru- traffic?in- or-aniEations an< t3e
t3reat t3ey re$resent to stability in Mexico 3ave also 3am$ere< its $olicy free<om. T3e strate-ic
factor in t3e bilateral relations3i$ t3us trum$s ot3er $olicy concerns. 43en t3is involves t3e
$ossibility of an attac? on t3e =.S. 3omelan< or $olitical instability in Mexico> it s3ar$ly
increases =.S. influence in Mexican affairs> but &3en it involves $rotectin- an establis3e<> stable
ally in Mexico> =.S. influence <eclines s3ar$ly.
/FF
3AC Solvency: A>t - ?3 @Mexico /on%t *eformA B3>3C 35
1$ Mexican leaders !ave t!e )olitical aut!ority to overcome internal
o))osition to security reforms#
*O+,*-S A.D O*-,;A" 79
(@ames> 6esearc3 1ello& for 2conomic 1ree<om an< 9ro&t3 in t3e Center for 0nternational
Tra<e an< 2conomicsA 0srael> Senior Me<ia Services Associate in t3e Me<ia Services
,e$artment> at T3e erita-e 1oun<ationA #o& 6eforms in Mexico Coul< Ma?e t3e =.S. More
Secure>' 5/1*> 3tt$://&&&.3erita-e.or-/researc3/re$orts/2DD./D5/3o&!reforms!in!mexico!
coul<!ma?e!t3e!us!more!secure)
T3e $ros$erity an< national security of t3e =nite< States 3ave alrea<y been en3ance< by t3e
$ro-ress ma<e by Mexico since it Ioine< %A1TA in 1LL/. 1or furt3er $ro-ress> 3o&ever> t3e
barriers to entry into t3e mar?et$lace of $olitical i<eas also 3ave to come <o&n. 43at is
reGuire< is a careful examination of t3e vast areas of MexicoMs economy t3at are state!o&ne< or
&3ere $rivate mono$olies an< <uo$olies are $ermitte< by t3e state to o$erate &it3out
com$etition. Attention must also be -iven to labor la&s t3at 3obble t3e in<i-enous &or?force
an< force millions into t3e informal economy> as &ell as to t3e $olitical strai-3tIac?et t3at 3as
boun< MexicoMs lea<ers3i$. T3ese reforms &ill reGuire a level of $olitical &ill by all Mexican
$oliticians t3at is stron- enou-3 to brea? t3ese s3ac?les an< create an atmos$3ere t3at fosters
-reater economic o$$ortunity. T3is &oul<> of course> be a <auntin- tas? at every level> $er3a$s
even a <an-erous one. 7ut it is not im$ossible. T3e result &oul< be a transforme< MexicoKa
Mexico t3at 3as never before existe<> t3at attracts &or?ers &it3 its economic o$$ortunities
rat3er t3an re$ellin- t3em. T3e $ressure on t3e =.S. bor<er &oul< ease consi<erably an< mi-3t
even <isa$$ear. 4it3 stron- $ersonal lea<ers3i$ t3at ins$ires t3e Mexican $o$ulation> a
coalition &it3 t3e $olitical &ill to $ersist Iust mi-3t be for-e<. :resi<ent Cal<erUn> &ere 3e to
succee<> &oul< be 3aile< as t3e Te<<y 6oosevelt of Mexico> an< Mexico an< t3e =nite< States
&oul< bot3 be t3e better for it.
/FF
3AC Solvency: A>t - ?1 @,conomy is +iggest =actorA 32
-!ey say t!at t!e 'ea Mexican economy 'ill ee) generating illegal
immigration" &ut # # #
1$ Our argument isn%t Iust a&out immigration" it is a&out drug violence# -!e
)lan can still solve for cartels and terrorism 'it!out fully solving illegal
immigration# As long as 'e decrease violence" 'e solve for our Harms#
3$ (#S# economic assistance 'ill o)en u) Mexico%s economy" solving
immigration &y creating good Io&s sout! of t!e &order#
*O+,*-S A.D O*-,;A" 79
To reme<y t3is situation> t3e Mexican -overnment s3oul< o$en its oil> natural -as> an<
electricity -eneration an< <istribution sectors to $rivate investment an< $artici$ation. 0t s3oul<
also brea? u$ $rivate!sector mono$olies an< <uo$olies &it3 more effective anti!trust le-islation.
T3e =.S. -overnment s3oul< offer tec3nical assistance to 3el$ Mexico liberaliEe an< o$en u$ its
economy. T3e resultin- floo< of ne& $rivate investment &oul< create 3un<re<s of t3ousan<s of
ne& Iobs t3at &oul< encoura-e many &oul<!be economic mi-rants to remain at 3ome in
Mexico.
1$ ,conomic reforms 'ould mae staying in Mexico more attractive"
minimiGing illegal immigration#
*O+,*-S A.D O*-,;A" 79
0f t3e Mexican -overnment &ere to ma?e t3e many c3an-es nee<e< to re<uce t3e Nsu$$ly $us3>N
an< if t3e =.S. &ere simultaneously to ma?e necessary c3an-es in its immi-ration la&s to
&ea?en t3e N<eman< $ull>N t3ere &oul< be several $ositive <evelo$ments. 0n Mexico> t3e result
&oul< be t3e creation of ne&> sustainable $rivate!sector Iobs. More Mexicans &oul< &ant to stay
3ome to start businesses> an< ot3ers &oul< stay to &or? for t3em. Some Mexican mi-rants
currently &or?in- in t3e =nite< States &oul< very li?ely return 3ome> usin- t3eir savin-s to start
/FF
small businesses. . . . T3e result &oul< be a lessenin- of mi-ration $ressures at t3e =.S. FMexico
bor<er> a re<uction in t3e =.S. unem$loyment rate> an< im$rove< =.S. national security.
/FF
3AC Solvency: A>t - ?4 @;eogra)!y 4revents Coo)erationA 38
-!ey say t!at Mexico%s crucial geogra)!ic )osition means t!at it 'on%t feel
t!e need to listen to t!e (#S# Ho'ever # # #
1$ -!e reverse is true H geogra)!y forces Mexico to listen to (#S# demands
and mae )olicies &ased on (#S# assistance#
S-A**" 11
Jne of t3e most im$ortant sources of Mexico5s 3istoric vulnerability to =.S. $o&er is its
-eo-ra$3ic $osition on t3e sout3ern (an< $reviously &estern) bor<er of t3e =nite< States. 0n t3e
years after Mexico5s 1.21 in<e$en<ence> an insecure an< ex$ansionist =nite< States facin- t3e
intri-ues of 2uro$ean $o&ers on its bor<ers &as an active $layer in Mexican <omestic affairs to
counter 7ritis3 influence in a country c3aracteriEe< by $ersistent $olitical instability. T&enty!
five years later> t3e =nite< States initiate< a &ar t3at <e$rive< Mexico of 3alf of its territory an<
transforme< t3e =nite< States into a continental $o&er. 1or most of t3e remain<er of t3e
nineteent3 century> =.S. intervention in Mexican affairs <ecline< mar?e<ly o&in- to internal
=.S. c3allen-es (t3e Civil 4ar an< 6econstruction) an< t3e rise of a stable> relatively $ro!=.S.
-overnment in Mexico. ,urin- t3e early t&entiet3 century> 3o&ever> Mexican $olitical
instability a-ain invite< =.S. intervention in a faile< attem$t to steer t3e Mexican 6evolution in
a <irection amenable to =.S. interests. 1ailin- t3at> t3e =nite< States re$eate<ly ex$loite< its
military an< economic $o&er to force Mexico to a<o$t $olicies more #acce$table' to t3e =nite<
States.
3$ -!e government is already )ro)osing reforms to strengt!en t!e Mexican
economy#
*O+,*-S A.D O*-,;A" 79
Cal<erUn is acutely a&are of t3e 3u-e -ro&t3 o$$ortunities t3at Mexico is missin- <omestically>
as &ell as MexicoMs increasin- vulnerability to com $etition from Asia> an< 3as $ro$ose< an
ambitious $ac?a-e of reforms to t3e Mexican Con-ress. Cal<erUnMs re$utation as a $ra-matist
may 3el$ 3im stri?e a $olitical <eal &it3 t3e la&ma?ers. . . . 0n a 3o$eful si-n> Cal<erUn recently
/FF
announce< t3e creation of a S25 billion fun< to buil< 3i-3&ays> bri<-es> an< ot3er
infrastructure. As t3e Bos An-eles Times re$orte<> Cal<erUn &ants to avoi< <e$en<ence Non t3e
external motor of t3e =.S. economyN to ?ee$ Mexico -ro&in-. e also &arne< t3at Mexico must
ma?e N<ifficult <ecisionsN . . . .
0#1
Mexico Security .egative 39
1%C 1rontline: arms (1/*).......................................................................................................... 2L
2%C 2xtension arms ! "1 #Coo$eration %o&' (1/2)...................................................................*2
2%C 2xtension arms ! "2 #%o %uclear Terror'..........................................................................*/
2%C 2xtension arms ! "* #+iolence is ,ecreasin-'...................................................................*5
2%C 2xtension arms ! "/ #,ru-s Are ,ecreasin-'....................................................................*8
1%C 1rontline: Solvency (1/*)....................................................................................................... *;
2%C 2xtension Solvency ! "1 #0mmi-ration from 2very&3ere'.................................................../D
2%C 2xtension Solvency ! "2 #Mexico 4on5t 6eform'................................................................./1
2%C 2xtension Solvency ! "* #2conomy is 7i--est 1actor'........................................................./2
2%C 2xtension Solvency ! "/ #9eo-ra$3y $revents coo$eration'................................................/*
CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 >ar)s Fro!tli!e
0#1
1.C =rontline: Harms B1> 1 C 3<
1$ -!e (#S# and Mexico are already coo)erating to increase &order security#
(#S# C(S-OMS A.D +O*D,* 4*O-,C-6O." 13
(1e<eral <ivision of ,e$artment of omelan< Security> #C7: Bea<ers ,escribe :ro-ress on
=.S.!Mexico 7or<er Security'> L/21>
3tt$://&&&.cb$.-ov/x$/c-ov/ne&sroom/3i-3li-3ts/usZmexZ$ro-ress.xml)
,urin- a $anel <iscussion on =.S.!Mexico security coo$eration yester<ay> =.S. Customs an<
7or<er :rotection C3ief J$eratin- Jfficer T3omas 4in?o&s?i sai< 3e believes si-nificant
$ro-ress 3as been ma<e on bor<er security bet&een t3e =.S. an< Mexico <urin- t3e last five
years. 4in?o&s?i cre<ite< a stron- 7or<er :atrol $resence an< Ioint tar-etin- efforts by t3e =.S.
an< Mexico as bein- instrumental in a$$re3en<in- more ille-al aliens an< <ru- smu--lers from
Mexico alon- America5s sout3ern bor<er. e $le<-e< t3at more security &ill be a<<e< to t3e
sout3ern bor<er but C7: &ill be facin- #bu<-et c3allen-es' in t3e comin- fiscal years> as &ill
ot3er fe<eral a-encies. 4in?o&s?i5s remar?s came at t3e 18t3 annual =.S.!Mexico C3amber of
Commerce Con-ressional 7or<er 0ssues Conference on Ca$itol ill in 4as3in-ton> ,.C.
4in?o&s?i cre<ite< Mexico in 3el$in- America better secure t3e sout3ern bor<er by
coo$eratin- &it3 t3e =.S. on its Customs!Tra<e :artners3i$ A-ainst Terrorism an< by o$eratin-
its Alliance for Secure Commerce> a $ro-ram t3at 3as been an asset to American bor<er security>
3e sai<. #T3e relations3i$ &it3 Mexico is stron-er an< t3ere 3ave been tremen<ous inroa<s #in
3o& bot3 si<es loo? at t3e sout3ern bor<er> 4in?o&s?i tol< t3e au<ience. #43en 0 t3in? of
security> it is catc3in- ba< $eo$le but it is also[ so &e can facilitate le-itimate tra<e an< travel.'
C7: Actin- Assistant Commissioner for t3e Jffice of 1iel< J$erations Cevin McAleenan also
a<<resse< an earlier $anel on tra<e> commerce an< infrastructure alon- t3e =.S.!Mexico bor<er
an< sai< 3e believe< t3at since t3e c3amber5s last Ca$itol ill -at3erin- in 2D11 $artners3i$s
3ave a<<e< to =.S.!Mexico bor<er security. #0t 3as been a $erio< from our $ers$ective t3at 3as
really been mar?e< by innovation an< $artners3i$ in a lot of areas>' McAleenan sai<. e note<
t3at relations bet&een t3e =.S. an< Mexico at all levels of -overnment an< &it3 t3e $rivate
sector 3ave never been stron-er #because &e are all &or?in- to-et3er on our s3are< c3allen-es.'
0#1
1.C =rontline: Harms B 3 > 1 C 17
3# 6m)act exaggerated: -!eir im)act evidence is a&out a nuclear terrorist
attac" &ut t!ere is no )roof t!at terrorists from Mexico 'ould !ave nuclear
'ea)ons# Also" nuclear terrorism is less )ro&a&le and less destructive t!an
'ar#
A:SO." 17
(6obert> :rofessor of Strate-ic Stu<ies an< ,irector of t3e Centre for Strate-ic Stu<ies: %e&
Oealan< at t3e +ictoria =niversity of 4ellin-ton> #:o&er or :osturin-R :olicy Availability an<
Con-ressional 0nWuence on =.S. :resi<ential ,ecisions to =se 1orce'> After a Terrorist %uclear
Attac?: 2nvisa-in- Catalytic 2ffects>' Stu<ies in Conflict X Terrorism> @uly> **:;)
A terrorist nuclear attac?> an< even t3e use of nuclear &ea$ons in res$onse by t3e country
attac?e< in t3e first $lace> &oul< not necessarily re$resent t3e &orst of t3e nuclear &orl<s
ima-inable. 0n<ee<> t3ere are reasons to &on<er &3et3er nuclear terrorism s3oul< ever be
re-ar<e< as belon-in- in t3e cate-ory of truly existential t3reats. A contrast can be <ra&n 3ere
&it3 t3e -lobal catastro$3e t3at &oul< come from a massive nuclear exc3an-e bet&een t&o or
more of t3e soverei-n states t3at $ossess t3ese &ea$ons in si-nificant numbers. 2ven t3e &orst
terrorism t3at t3e t&enty!first century mi-3t brin- &oul< fa<e into insi-nificance alon-si<e
consi<erations of &3at a -eneral nuclear &ar &oul< 3ave &rou-3t in t3e Col< 4ar $erio<. An< it
must be a<mitte< t3at as lon- as t3e maIor nuclear &ea$ons states 3ave 3un<re<s an< even
t3ousan<s of nuclear &ea$ons at t3eir <is$osal> t3ere is al&ays t3e $ossibility of a truly a&ful
nuclear exc3an-e ta?in- $lace $reci$itate< entirely by state $ossessors t3emselves.
1# *is of t!e Harms is s!rining -- Mexico%s economy is gro'ing and
violence is decreasing#
-H, ,CO.OM6S-" 13
(#1rom <ar?ness> <a&n>' 11/2/> 3tt$://&&&.economist.com/ne&s/s$ecial!re$ort/21588;;*!
after!years!un<erac3ievement!an<!risin-!violence!mexico!last!be-innin-)
Many of t3e t3in-s t3at t3e &orl< t3in?s it ?no&s about Mexico are no lon-er true. A serially
un<erac3ievin- economy> re$eate<ly trum$e< by <ynamic 7raEilR Mexico out$ace< 7raEil last
year an< &ill -ro& t&ice as fast t3is year. Jut!of!control $o$ulation -ro&t3 an< an en<less
exo<us to t3e nort3R %et emi-ration is <o&n to Eero> if not ne-ative> an< t3e fertility rate &ill
soon be lo&er t3an t3at of t3e =nite< States. 9rin<in- $overtyR Ves> but alleviate< by services
suc3 as universal free 3ealt3 care. A ra-in- <ru- &arR T3e failure of ric3 countries5 anti!<ru-s
$olicies means t3at or-anise< crime &ill not -o a&ay. 7ut Mexico5s mur<er rate is no& fallin->
albeit slo&ly> for t3e first time in five years.
0#1
1.C =rontline: Harms B 1 > 1 C 11
4$ Drug violence t!at does exist )roves enforcement is 'oring &ecause
gangs are getting more des)erate# Drugs are getting !arder to ex)ort#
4,*56.S A.D 40AC6DO" 17
for 0ntelli-ence
Mur<er is not solely a coercive strate-y on t3e $art of t3e cartels. -!e murders are acts of
des)eration# O)erational successes &y t!e military and la' enforcement" and
massive reforms &eing undertaen &y t!e Iudiciary" !ave )rovided t!e catalyst for
muc! of t!e violence. -!e de)loyment of tens of t!ousands of military troo)sK
mobiliEe< s$ecifically to confront ,TJs in #3ot s$ots' t3rou-3out t3e countryKalong 'it!
concerted la' enforcement o)erations targeting s)ecific cartel mem&ers or
s)ecific im)ort>ex)ort !u&s" !ave disru)ted su))ly routes &ot! into and out of
Mexico" and !ave s!attered alliances. ,ntry )orts for lar-e maritime s3i$ments of
cocaine from Sout3 America> )reviously '!olly controlled &y t!e cartels t!roug!
corru)tion> intimi<ation> an< force> are instead )atrolled and ins)ected &y vetted
mem&ers of Mexico%s armed forces# -!e lucrative trans)ortation corridors 'it!in
Mexico and into t!e (nited States> once incontestably 3el< by cartel #-ate?ee$ers' an<
#$laEa bosses>' are no' riddled 'it! military c!ec)oints and monitored &y Mexican
la' enforcement.
CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 20C/10R >ar)s #+te!sio!s
0#1
3.C ,xtension Harms - ?1 @Coo)eration .o'A B1>3C 13
Off t!e 1.C ?1 @-!e (#S# and Mexico are coo)erating no'"A grou) t!e 3AC
res)onses#
1$ -!e (#S# and Mexico are coo)erating in t!e Status Juo" and t!is is
reducing t!e ris of terrorism and drug violence# -!is taes out t!e ris of
t!eir im)act &ecause terrorist access to t!e (#S# is &eing addressed no'#
,xtend our 1.C (#S# C(S-OMS A.D +O*D,* 4*O-,C-6O. evidence#
3$ Mexico%s ne' government is already 'oring 'it! t!e (#S# on &order
security#
/A0S,* A.D D(C5,*MA." 11
=ltimately> an effective bor<er security $olicy reGuires a reliable security $artner in Mexico.
T3an?fully> t3e obIectives of Mexico5s ne& -overnment are to en-ineer a more secure> more
$ros$erous> an< more rule!of!la&!oriente< future. Mexico: T3e 2ssential :artner =n<er
:resi<ents 9eor-e 4. 7us3 an< 7arac? Jbama> t3e =.S. 3as alrea<y <evelo$e< a consi<erable
ran-e of $olicy tools for &or?in- &it3 Mexico. T3ese ran-e from t3e Meri<a 0nitiative an< a 21st!
century bor<er mana-ement $lan to t3e establis3ment of 7or<er 2nforcement Security Tas?
1orce teams> all of &3ic3 &or? closely &it3 Mexican counter$arts.
1$ -!e additional assistance t!at t!e affirmative evidence refers to is
&roader economic aid" '!ic! t!e )lan doesn%t )rovide# -!e /A0S,*
evidence functions as a solvency tae-out &ecause it states t!at 'it!out
more aid for t!e economy" t!e Mexican government 'on%t coo)erate on
slo'ing do'n illegal immigration#
0#1
3.C ,xtension Harms - ?1 @Coo)eration .o'A B3>3C 11
1$ (#S#-Mexican coo)eration on &order security is ex)anding
/A0S,* A.D D(C5,*MA." 11
T3e =.S. also s3ares 3i-3ly sensitive intelli-ence &it3 Mexican aut3orities> &3o are Iust as
concerne< as t3eir American counter$arts about terrorism an< transnational criminal
or-aniEations. 1urt3er> t3e =.S. 3as im$rove< military!to!military coo$eration &it3out tryin- to
#militariEe' t3e fi-3t a-ainst transnational crime. =.S. %ort3ern Comman< 3as assume< an
active role in a--ressively see?in- to $artner &it3 Mexico5s arme< forces. A <ee$enin- of
coo$eration coul< $ut a<<itional =.S. trainers in Mexico an< <eliver more coo$eration in
intelli-ence an< o$erations $lannin- but &it3out any military #boots on t3e -roun<.' 0n s3ort>
t3e current level of coo$eration bet&een t3e t&o $arties is un$rece<ente< an< &ill li?ely
continue to -ro&.
0#1
3.C ,xtension Harms - ?3 @.o .uclear -errorA 14
Off t!e 1.C ?3 @.o ris of nuclear terror"A grou) t!e 3AC res)onses#
1$ -!ere is no ris of nuclear terrorism from Mexico# -!ey do not !ave
evidence t!at terrorists !ave 'ea)ons of mass destruction" only t!at t!ey
'ant to !ave 'ea)ons# .o terrorist in !istory !as successfully launc!ed a
nuclear 'ea)on#
3$ 6m)act of a 'ar vastly out'eig!s nuclear terrorism# -!is means our
disadvantageKs$ out'eig!# ,xtend our A:SO. evidence#
0#1
3.C ,xtension Harms - ?1 @Fiolence is DecreasingA 15
Off of 1.C ?1 @Fiolence is decreasing"A grou) t!e 3AC res)onses#
1$ Mexico%s economy is gro'ing" and t!is is leading to more sta&ility and
less cross-&order violence# ,xtend our 1.C ,CO.OM6S- evidence#
3$ -!e Merida 6nitiative )roves t!e (#S# and Mexico are already coo)erating
to decrease drug violence#
S,,05, A.D =6.50,A" 11
=.S. an< Mexican officials 3ave often <escribe< t3e MQri<a 0nitiative as a Nne& $ara<i-mN for
bilateral security coo$eration. T3e MQri<a 0nitiative si-nale< a maIor <i$lomatic ste$ for&ar<
for bilateral counter<ru- coo$eration as t3e Mexican -overnment $ut soverei-nty concerns
asi<e to allo& extensive =.S. involvement in its <omestic security $olicies. 43ile coo$eration
can al&ays be im$rove<> t3e MQri<a 0nitiative 3as resulte< in increasin- communication
bet&een =.S. an< Mexican officials at all levels t3rou-3 t3e establis3ment a multi!level &or?in-
-rou$ structure to <esi-n an< im$lement bilateral security efforts. Jn Se$tember 1.> 2D12> =.S.
an< Mexican cabinet!level officials met for t3e fourt3 time to revie& t3e results of five years of
MQri<a coo$eration> reaffirm t3eir commitment to its strate-ic frame&or?> an< $le<-e #to buil<
on an< institutionaliEe t3e coo$eration t3e MQri<a 0nitiative 3as establis3e<.' 2L :er3a$s most
im$ortantly for Mexico> as $art of t3e MQri<a 0nitiative> bot3 countries acce$te< a s3are<
res$onsibility to tac?le <omestic $roblems contributin- to <ru- traffic?in- an< crime> inclu<in-
=.S. <ru- <eman<.
1$ ,ven if t!e drug cartels are increasing t!eir fire-)o'er" our evidence
)roves t!at t!ey are not using t!ese arsenals freEuently#
0#1
3.C ,xtension Harms - ?4 @Drugs Are DecreasingA 12
Off of 1.C ?4 @Drug trafficing is decreasing"A grou) t!e 3AC res)onses#
1$ Drug cartels are only resorting to violence &ecause drugs are getting
!arder to traffic# ,xtend our 1.C 4,*56.S A.D 40AC6DO evidence# -!is
evidence )roves t!at t!e status Euo is solving and t!e )lan is not necessary
to sto) furt!er drug violence &ecause it 'ill fade out as t!e industry dies#
3$ 6ncreasing )rices and decreasing )urity )roves t!e drug trade is
decreasing#
4,*56.S A.D 40AC6DO" 17
for 0ntelli-ence
T3e <aily c3allen-es $ose< by <ru- traffic?in- or-aniEations in t3e =nite< States an< Mexico are
si-nificant> but are overs3a<o&e< of late by a very s$ecific set of c3allen-es: ensurin- t3at t3e
ram$ant violence in Mexico <oes not s$ill over our bor<erA closely monitorin- t3e security
situation in MexicoA an<> $er3a$s most im$ortantly> len<in- our assistance an< su$$ort to t3e
Cal<eron A<ministration to ensure its continue< success a-ainst t3e rut3less an< $o&erful
cartels. T3e 9overnment of Mexico 3as realiEe< enormous -ains in re!establis3in- t3e rule of
la& in Mexico> an< in brea?in- t3e $o&er an< im$unity of t3e ,TJs &3o t3reaten Mexico5s> an<
our> national security. T3e Cal<eron A<ministration5s -ains translate to an un$arallele< $ositive
im$act on t3e =.S. <ru- mar?et as &ell: from @anuary 2DD; t3rou-3 ,ecember 2DDL> t3e $rice
$er -ram of cocaine increase< ;2 $ercent from SL.... to S18L.L*> &3ile t3e avera-e $urity
<ecrease< by almost ** $ercent. T3ese statistics $aint a clear $icture of restricte< <ru- flo& into
t3e =nite< States an< <ecrease< availability. 43ile s$i?esKu$&ar< or <o&n&ar<Kin $rice an<
$urity 3ave been observe< in t3e $ast> t3ese in<icators ty$ically normaliEe &it3in a fe& mont3s.
=nli?e in t3e $ast> &e are no& in t3e mi<st of a sustaine<> t3ree!year $erio< of escalatin- $rices
an< <ecreasin- $urity. Anec<otal evi<ence from aroun< t3e country an< closer to 3ome 3ere in
t3e ,istrict of Columbia> inclu<in- interce$te< communications of t3e traffic?ers t3emselves>
corroborates t3e fact t3at :resi<ent Cal<eron5s efforts are ma?in- it more <ifficult for traffic?ers
to su$$ly t3e =.S. mar?et &it3 illicit <ru-s.
0#1
CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 Sol$e!cy
Me+ico Security Case
0#1
1.C =rontline: Solvency B1>1C 18
1$ 6llegal immigration comes from all over 0atin America# 6f terrorists can
snea in any &order 'ea )oint" t!en t!e )lan can never solve#
/A0S,*" MC.,600 A.D D(C5,*MA." 11
T3e <an-ers of illicit movement are not confine< to Mexico. T3ousan<s of ille-al immi-rants
attem$t to reac3 t3e =nite< States annually by sea from t3e Caribbean islan<s of Cuba> aiti>
an< t3e ,ominican 6e$ublic. T3ey all $ut t3emselves at ris? of aban<onment> ex$osure>
ca$siEin-> an< <ro&nin-.
3$ Mexico%s government evades difficult )olicy issues H it 'ill not
im)lement reforms to im)rove security or reduce illegal immigration#
*O+,*-S A.D O*-,;A" 79
istorically> Mexican lea<ers 3ave ta?en t3e easy &ay outKencoura-in- out!mi-ration an<
receivin- lar-e inflo&s of 3ar<!currency remittances in returnKrat3er t3an confrontin- t3eir
economyMs structural $roblems. 0n so <oin-> t3ey too? a $a-e from t3e late Mars3all Tito of
Vu-oslavia> &3o <i< t3e same t3in- &3en confronte< &it3 t3e failure of t3e Communist
economic system in t3e 1L;Ds. Tito sim$ly ex$orte< 3is sur$lus &or?ers to 4estern 2uro$e.
43ile t3is artful <o<-in- by t3e $oliticians 3as benefite< t3e elites &3o control t3e mono$olies>
state!o&ne< firms> an< $o&erful unions t3at re$resent t3eir &or?ers> it 3as not res$on<e< to t3e
nee<s an< as$irations of t3e avera-e Mexican citiEen. Mexicans mi-3t be able to -et 3i-3er!
$ayin- Iobs in t3e =.S. as ille-al aliens> but t3ey must live in constant fear of <e$ortation. Many
of t3ese ille-al &or?ers are youn- sin-le men> t3e <emo-ra$3ic most li?ely to commit crimes
an< abuse <ru-s an< alco3ol. T3e failure of t3e Mexican -overnment to a<<ress t3ese $roblems
3as been &i<ely note<. Accor<in- to t3e =.S. ,e$artment of State> for exam$le: Mexico 3as
become less com$etitive relative to ot3er emer-in- economies> $articularly C3ina but also 0n<ia
an< countries in 2astern 2uro$e> as it 3as faile< to a<<ress serious crime an< safety issues or
$ass muc3 nee<e< fiscal> labor an< ener-y sector reforms. 6ecent re$orts from AT Cearney>
Trans$arency 0nternational> t3e 4orl< 2conomic 1orum an< t3e Jr-aniEation for 2conomic
0#1
Coo$eration an< ,evelo$ment (J2C,) 3ave <etaile< t3e $erceive< <ecline in MexicoMs
attractiveness as an investment <estination.
0#1
1.C =rontline: Solvency B3>1C 19
1$ Mexico%s 'ea economy is a larger factor in encouraging illegal
immigration H t!e )lan can%t solve for t!is#
*O+,*-S A.D O*-,;A" 79
T3e 3ealt3 of MexicoMs economy 3as a <irect im$act on =.S. immi-ration $atterns. T3e failure of
t3e Mexican economy to $erform at $ea? efficiency an< to realiEe its full $otential over t3e $ast
3alf!century 3as resulte< in a floo< of unem$loye< semi!s?ille< an< uns?ille< Mexican Iob
3unters see?in- em$loyment &it3 t3eir allurin-ly successful nei-3bor to t3e nort3. 0lle-al
&or?ers from Mexico are often &illin- to acce$t lo&er &a-es t3an le-al =.S. &or?ers &ill acce$t.
=.S. em$loyers in various labor!intensive fiel<s o$erate muc3 more efficiently t3an t3eir
Mexican counter$arts <o> an< t3ese lo&!&a-e &or?ers ma-nify t3at $ro<uctivity. T3e artificially
lo& cost of t3is labor (&3ic3 also <oes not inclu<e all of t3e taxes necessary to offset t3e a<<i!
tional costs to t3e -overnment t3at are -enerate< by t3ese ne& resi<ents) 3as create< a stron-
<eman< for ille-al &or?ers from Mexico.
0#1
1.C =rontline: Solvency B1>1C 1<
4$ Mexico uses its )osition as a ey geogra)!ic connection to 0atin America
to deny (#S# )olicy influence# -!is means t!at t!ey 'ill not im)lement (#S#-
directed &order security im)rovements#
S-A**" 11
T3e oft!Guote< a$3orism attribute< to former Mexican :resi<ent :orfirio ,iaE> #:oor Mexico> so
far from 9o< an< close to t3e =nite< States>' conveys t3ese real 3istoric limits to Mexico5s
soverei-n autonomy create< by a bor<er s3are< &it3 a -reat $o&er. Vet -eo-ra$3y 3as also
constraine< t3e free<om of =.S. $olicy action. Mexico5s $osition on t3e =.S. sout3ern bor<er
means t3at t3e overri<in- =.S. interest in Mexico is ultimately to 3ave a stable ally on its
frontier. T3e im$ortance of t3is fact &as evi<ent <urin- t3e early nineteent3 century an< &as
forcefully un<erline< <urin- 4orl< 4ar 0 &3en Mexican $olitical instability an< flirtation &it3
=.S. a<versaries create< t3e t3reat of a $ossible attac? on t3e =nite< States t3rou-3 Mexican
territory. 0n t3e aftermat3 of t3at &ar> concerns about forei-n a<versaries attac?in- t3e =nite<
States t3rou-3 Mexico <ecline<> but t3e a$$roac3 of a secon< &orl< &ar re?in<le< =.S. strate-ic
concerns about Mexico. 0n t3is circumstance t3e =nite< States acGuiesce< to t3e 1L*.
nationaliEation of t3e Mexican $etroleum in<ustry> a clear violation of t3e sanctity of $rivate
$ro$erty ri-3ts for &3ic3 t3e =nite< States 3a< intervene< in t3e $ast. :ut sim$ly> 3avin- an ally
in suc3 a strate-ically im$ortant country trum$e< t3e ri-3ts of =.S. $ro$erty o&ners. ,urin- t3e
Col< 4ar &3en t3e =nite< States feare< t3at <evelo$in- nations mi-3t fall li?e <ominos to
communist influence> Mexico &as t3e #last <omino' in Batin America. T3is strate-ic reality
motivate< a =.S. &illin-ness to acce$t Mexico5s aut3oritarian $olitics an< close< economy for
forty years> $ractices t3at 3a< $reviously motivate< =.S. involvement in Mexican affairs> in
exc3an-e for a stable> anti!communist ally to t3e sout3. Mexico re$eate<ly ex$loite< t3is
conseGuence of -eo-ra$3y to carve out an autonomous $olicy!ma?in- s$ace. T3rou-3out t3e
Col< 4ar> t3is enable< an in<e$en<ent forei-n $olicy t3at &as re-ularly at o<<s &it3 =.S.
$references. 1or a revolutionary re-ime follo&in- increasin-ly conservative economic an< social
$olicies at 3ome> a forei-n $olicy motivate< by t3e revolutionary $rinci$les of anti!im$erialism>
social &elfare> an< non!intervention &as an effective tool for le-itimatin- t3e re-ime. T3is
ins$ire< a series of international $ositions in <irect o$$osition to =nite< States $olicy. Most
notably> Mexico sustaine< <i$lomatic ties &it3 t3e Soviet =nion &3en t3at &as fro&ne< u$on in
4as3in-tonA it reco-niEe< t3e Castro re-ime in Cuba an< $ersistently o$$ose< its $olitical an<
economic isolationA it vocally o$$ose< =.S.!s$onsore< cou$s an< ot3er forms of intervention in
Batin AmericaA an< it actively su$$orte< t3e 1L;Ds socialist -overnment in C3ile. T3e =nite<
States tolerate< t3is o$$osition &it3 an eye to stren-t3enin- a stable> essentially $ro!=.S. re-ime
on t3e =.S. frontier . . . but t3e =nite< States ultimately conclu<e< t3at a strate-y <esi-ne< to
outmaneuver Mexico &as more li?ely to $ro<uce a $ositive outcome t3an furt3er $ressure on
Mexico to aban<on its in<e$en<ent an< <omestically $o$ular $olicy stance.
0#1
3.C ,xtension Solvency - ?1 @6mmigration from ,very'!ereA 47
Off of 1.C ?1 @6llegal immigration comes from many )laces"A grou) t!e 3AC
res)onses#
1$ -errorists 'ill s!ift# Mexico mig!t &e t!e focus of terrorists% interest
no'" &ut if t!e )lan 'ors" t!ey 'ill s!ift to ot!er sources of 0atin
American illegal immigration#
3$ 6llegal immigration 'ill s!ift# 6t%s currently !a))ening from a lot of
)laces in 0atin America" and if t!e (#S# H Mexico &order &ecomes secure"
t!ose )laces 'ill gro' as )oints of entry to t!e (#S# ,xtend our 1.C
/A0S,*" MC.,600 A.D D(C5,*MA. evidence#
1$ .ot all immigration goes &y land H t!ousands of immigrants travel
t!roug! t!e Cari&&ean &y sea#
/A0S,*" MC.,600 A.D D(C5,*MA." 11
0lle-al immi-rants also travel by sea. Bast year> t3e =.S. Coast 9uar< interce$te< 2>D.. ille-al
aliens off t3e coasts of t3e =nite< States. 43ile t3e number of interce$tions 3as consistently
<ecline< over t3e $ast six years> $revious estimates in<icate t3at t3ousan<s of $eo$le still
attem$t to ma?e t3e maritime Iourney from t3e Caribbean eac3 year. T3e maIority of t3ese
immi-rants set sail from Cuba> aiti> an< t3e ,ominican 6e$ublic> eac3 Iourney fille< &it3 it its
o&n set of c3allen-es.
0#1
3.C ,xtension Solvency - ?3 @Mexico /on%t *eformA 41
Off of 1.C ?3 @Mexico 'on%t im)lement c!anges"A grou) t!e 3AC res)onses#
1$ Mexico%s )oliticians do not !ave t!e )olitical )o'er to reform or
c!allenge &usiness leaders and criminal cartels in Mexico# -!ey are more
liely to )ocet t!e )lan%s assistance and not im)lement c!anges# ,xtend
our 1.C *O+,*-S A.D O*-,;A evidence#
3$ S)ecial interests and domestic )olitics are )reventing CalderLn%s
reforms#
*O+,*-S A.D O*-,;A" 79
:resi<ent Cal<erUn faces an u$3ill fi-3t to &in reforms from t3e <ivi<e< Mexican Con-ress to
$ermit -reater $rivate investment in t3e ener-y sector. T3e o$$osition> inclu<in- entrenc3e<
s$ecial interests in t3e :60 an< anti!-lobaliEation activists in t3e :6,> &ill try to Nforestall
reac3in- t3e t&o!t3ir<s maIority nee<e< to c3an-e MexicoMs constitution an< allo& for
$artici$ation of $rivate com$anies in oil ex$loration an< $ro<uction.'
0#1
3.C ,xtension Solvency - ?1 @,conomy is +iggest =actorA 43
Off of 1.C ?1 @,conomy is t!e &iggest factor"A grou) t!e 3AC res)onses#
1$ Mexico%s economy is a &igger factor in creating &order insecurity t!an
drug cartels or criminals" and t!e )lan does not !ave any im)act on t!e
economy# -!is means t!e )lan cannot overcome alternate causalities for
illegal immigration t!at 'ill eit!er cause or solve t!eir im)acts
inde)endently# ,xtend our 1.C *O+,*-S A.D O*-,;A evidence#
3$ Anot!er alternate causality: 'it!out massive )olice and Iudicial reform"
Mexico can%t sto) drug crime#
/A0S,*" 17
Jver t3e lon- run> Mexico5s ability to re<uce t3e <ru- t3reat 3in-es on a massive over3aul of its
la& enforcement an< Iu<icial institutions. 1or <eca<es> t3e $olice existe< lar-ely to $reserve
$ublic or<er rat3er t3an solve crimes an< brin- t3e -uilty to Iustice. Secretary of :ublic Safety
9enaro 9arcia Buna observe< t3at Mexico 3as #3a< a corru$t> une<ucate< $olice force> &it3out
a bu<-et> <rivin- stolen ve3icles> an< basically <ecom$osin- for /D years.' Some 1>85; state an<
munici$al $olice a-encies em$loy an estimate< /D8>DDD $olicemen> massively <&arfin- fe<eral
enforcement a-encies. T3e number of la& enforcement $ersonnel available to t3e Mexican
fe<eral -overnment ex$an<e< from 25>DDD in 2DD. to *2>28/ in 2DDL. At t3e state an<
munici$al levels> entire $olice forces 3ave been summarily fire< for corru$tion an<
incom$etence or 3ave resi-ne< rat3er t3an stan< u$ to traffic?ers. 0n @une 2DDL> .D $olicemen
sus$ecte< of &or?in- &it3 <ru- smu--lers &ere arreste< in 1. to&ns across %uevo Bare<o. 0n
Monterrey> local $olice $atrols are $ro3ibite< from sittin- in $ar?e< $atrol cars or usin- cell
$3ones &3en on <uty for fear t3ey are actin- as loo?outs for traffic?ers. 0n 2DD;> t3e Cal<erUn
A<ministration launc3e< a lon-!over<ue over3aul of Mexico5s la& enforcement system. T3e
mo<el it em$loys aims at constructin- a sin-le fe<eral $olice bo<y> mer-in- t3e 1e<eral
:reventive> t3e 1e<eral 0nvesti-ative> 0mmi-ration> an< Customs $olice in a manner t3at follo&s
t3e =.S. omelan< Security $attern. Vet current tar-ets for recruitin- an< trainin- $rofessionals
reac3 only *.8 $ercent of Mexico5s $olice an< $rivate security o$eratives. Bon-!term
im$rovements in t3e $rofessionaliEation of Mexico5s $olice &ill reGuire 3i-3er salaries> su$erior
trainin-> more a--ressive an< 3i-3er stan<ar<s of recruitment> an< freGuent vettin-. An< t3is
&or? 3as only Iust be-un. T3e slo& $ace of Iu<icial an< $rison reforms also acts as a <ra- on t3e
fi-3t a-ainst criminality.
0#1
0#1
3.C ,xtension Solvency - ?4 @ ;eogra)!y )revents coo)eration A
41
Off of 1.C?4 @;eogra)!ic )osition of Mexico leads it to ignore (#S#
influence"A grou) t!e 3AC res)onses#
1$ Mexico uses t!eir geogra)!ic location near t!e (nited States to ignore
(#S# influence &ecause t!ey no' t!at t!e (#S# cannot afford to Ieo)ardiGe
relations# Mexico can afford to tae (#S# assistance 'it!out contri&uting to
&order security &ecause t!e (#S# cannot t!reaten Mexico 'it! )unis!ment"
-!is means t!e )lan 'on%t create long-term )artners!i)s or solve violence#
,xtend our 1.C S-A** evidence#
3$ -!e affirmative Starr evidence is referring to !istorical incidents
involving military (#S# military intervention or intimidation# +ut in t!e
current international scene" Mexico no's t!at t!e (#S# relies on it in its
relations 'it! all of 0atin America" and for t!at reason Mexico no's t!at it
can ignore (#S# )olicy )ressure#
,e!e-uela De)ocracy Case 1/1
/FF
FeneGuela Democracy Affirmative 44
1AC: +eneEuela ,emocracy Affirmative......................................................................................../5
2AC arms F ,emocracy: A/t ! "1 #2lections are 1air' (1/2)......................................................5*
2AC arms F ,emocracy: A/t ! "2 #,emocracy Turn' (1/2).......................................................55
2AC arms F ,emocracy: A/t ! "* #2m$irically ,enie<'............................................................5;
2AC A<< Jn! 0ran [[..[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[.....[[[[[[[[..5L
2AC Solvency: A/t ! "1 #Anti!,emocracy 7ac?las3' (1/*)............................................................8/
2AC Solvency: A/t ! "2 #Con<itionin- fails' (1/2).........................................................................8;
2AC Solvency: A/t ! "* #,emocracy :romotion 1ails' (1/*)........................................................8L
2AC Solvency: A/t ! "/ #2lections Aren5t 2nou-3'.......................................................................;2
0ran A<<!Jn: A/t ! "1 #A<vanta-e Contra<icts' (1/2)..................................................................;*
0ran A<<!Jn: A/t ! "2 #%o More Ties to 0ran' (1/2).....................................................................;5
0ran A<<!Jn: A/t ! "* #0ran is :eaceful' (1/2)..............................................................................;;
T2S0S: +eneEuela &as turne< into an anti!American totalitarian country
un<er lon-!time $resi<ent u-o C3aveE> an< t3in-s 3aven5t -otten muc3
better since 3is <eat3 an< t3e #election' of %icolas Ma<uro. T3e =.S.
s3oul< con<ition its economic assistance on +eneEuela5s commitment to
free an< o$en <emocratic elections> t3e 3eart of a <emocracy. 0f it <i< so>
t3e <emocratic movement in +eneEuela &oul< become more effective an<
t3e country &oul< become a force for $eace.
/FF
1AC: FeneGuela Democracy Affirmative 45
Contention One is Harms# -otalitarianism in FeneGuela is !urting t!e (#S#%s
a&ility to )us! for democracy t!roug!out t!e region" causing glo&al
insta&ility#
1$ Hugo C!aveG left FeneGuela%s democratic institutions in a lasting state of
c!aos and degradation#
S(006FA." 11
(Mar?> S$ecialist in Batin American Affairs &it3 Con-ressional 6esearc3 ServiceA #u-o
C3TveE5s ,eat3: 0m$lications for +eneEuela an< =.S. 6elations>' //DL>
3tt$://&&&.fas.or-/s-$/crs/ro&/6/2L.L.$<f)
Jn t3e ot3er 3an<> :resi<ent C3TveE also left a lar-e ne-ative le-acy> inclu<in- t3e <eterioration
of <emocratic institutions an< $ractices> t3reats to free<om of ex$ression> 3i-3 rates of crime
an< mur<er (t3e 3i-3est in Sout3 America)> an< an economic situation c3aracteriEe< by 3i-3
inflation (over 2DY in 2D12)> crumblin- infrastructure> an< s3orta-es of consumer -oo<s.
0ronically> &3ile C3TveE c3am$ione< t3e $oor> 3is -overnment5s economic mismana-ement
&aste< billions t3at $otentially coul< 3ave establis3e< a more sustainable social &elfare system
benefitin- $oor +eneEuelans. 43oever &ins t3e next $resi<ential election &ill be face< &it3 a
3ost of si-nificant economic> social> an< $olitical c3allen-es facin- t3e country. C3TveE
concentrate< $olitical $o&er in 3is $resi<ency an< use< 3is c3arisma to a<vance 3is $o$ulist
#7olivarian revolution' (name< for t3e 1L t3 century Sout3 American liberator SimUn 7ol\var).
0t &ill be <ifficult for +eneEuela5s next $resi<ent to o$erate in t3e same &ay since fe&
+eneEuelan $oliticians 3ave t3e c3arisma an< $o$ularity t3at C3TveE enIoye<. 9iven t3e
<eterioration of <emocratic $ractices un<er :resi<ent C3TveE> it also coul< $rove <ifficult to
restore tra<itional c3ec?s an< balances in +eneEuela5s <emocratic $olitical system.
/FF
1AC: FeneGuela Democracy Affirmativ e 42
3$ FeneGuelan insta&ility is leading to a glo&al cam)aign of anti-
Americanism" in '!ic! FeneGuela is fomenting a counter-democratic
movement#
/A0S,*" 13
(6ay> :3,.> Senior :olicy Analyst for Batin AmericaA #Time 0s 6i$e for =.S. :olicy to A<<ress
Anti!Americanism in Batin America>' DL/2/>
3tt$://&&&.3erita-e.or-/researc3/re$orts/2D12/DL/us!$olicy!to!a<<ress!anti!americanism!in!
latin!america!nee<e</)
7ut +eneEuela $rove< too small a country to contain C3TveE5s ambitions. e launc3e< a Batin
American unity cam$ai-n in emulation of 3is 3ero> t3e -reat liberator Simon 7olivar> recastin-
t3e 3istoric 7olivar as $rimarily an anti!=.S. nationalist. C3TveE fas3ione< an alliance &it3 3is
ot3er -reat 3ero> 1i<el Castro> im$ortin- Cuban <octors an< teac3ers in exc3an-e for billions in
financial ai<. e &or?e< &it3 Cuba to launc3 t3e AB7A alliance in 2DD2 to contest =.S.
#3e-emony' in Batin America. C3TveE t3reatene< nei-3borin- Colombia> t3e =.S.5s closest ally
in t3e re-ion> an< offere< ai< an< safe 3aven to t3e 6evolutionary Arme< 1orces of Colombia> a
rut3less terrorist -rou$ t3at <erives muc3 of its fun<in- from <ru- traffic?in-> extortion> an<
?i<na$$in-. =sin- <iscounte< oil as an enticement an< rallyin- li?e!min<e< leftists to 3is cause>
C3TveE enliste< %icara-ua> 7olivia> 2cua<or> an< several Caribbean islan<s un<er AB7A5s
banner. 0n turn> AB7A 3as become t3e fulcrum for anti!Americanism in t3e Americas. 0t
<efen<e< t3e re-ime of Bibya5s Muammar Pa<3afi until 3is <eat3. 43ile t3e +eneEuelan forei-n
ministry re-rette< t3e recent <eat3s of =.S. <i$lomats mur<ere< in Bibya an< <enounce< t3e
terrorist attac?> it &as Guic? to blame t3e attac? on #colonialist a--ression' by %ATJ an<
<eman<e< an #en< to interventionism an< cam$ai-ns of 3atre< a-ainst Arab an< Muslim
$eo$les.' 0n a<vance of t3e Jctober ; $resi<ential elections in +eneEuela> C3TveE 3as sou-3t to
$ortray 3is rival as a $u$$et of =.S. im$erialism. C3TveE an< 3is 7olivarian $artners continue to
offer <i$lomatic an< economic su$$ort for t3e mur<erous> 0ranian!bac?e< 7as3ar al!Assa<
re-ime in Syria. AB7A members 3oste< 0ran5s :resi<ent Ma3mou< A3ma<ineIa< t3is year an<
$romise< to for-e closer $olitical> economic> an< security ties &it3 0ran. 6e$orts of secretive
financial <eals &it3 0ran an< ot3er sanctions!bustin- actions a$$ear re-ularly. An< Iust last
mont3> 2cua<or5s 6afael Correa offere< <i$lomatic asylum to t3e notorious @ulian Assan-e>
foun<er of 4i?iBea?s> &3o is no& 3ole< u$ in 2cua<or5s embassy in Bon<on. ,omestic assaults
on $rivate $ro$erty> rule of la&> an< in<ivi<ual ri-3ts continue unabate< amon- t3e 7olivarian
states. T3ere is an a--ressive cam$ai-n a-ainst me<ia free<om in t3e re-ion> from virtually
absolute control in totalitarian Cuba to increasin- curbs on free s$eec3 an< t3e im$osition of
-a- rules on t3ose &3o investi-ate an< criticiEe -overnment malfeasance in +eneEuela.
Similarly> t3e 7olivarian states 3ave increasin-ly bloc?e< outsi<e assistance to $ro!<emocracy
civil society> re$licatin- <emocracy bac?las3 tactics from Cairo to Mosco&.
/FF
1$ =ailure to )ress for democracy in FeneGuela is !urting (#S# credi&ility
glo&ally" and leading to more totalitarianism in 0atin America#
/A0S,*" 13
(6ay> :3,.> Senior :olicy Analyst for Batin AmericaA #T3e C3TveE :lan to Steal +eneEuelaMs
:resi<ential 2lection: 43at Jbama S3oul< ,o>' DL/1L>
3tt$://&&&.3erita-e.or-/researc3/re$orts/2D12/DL/t3e!c3aveE!$lan!to!steal!veneEuelas!
$resi<ential!election!&3at!obama!s3oul<!<o/)
0n recent years> =.S. influence an< $resence in Batin America 3ave <iminis3e< noticeably.
C3allen-es to <emocracy> t3e increase< strate-ic $resence of C3ina> 6ussia> an< 0ran> an< <ee$
<ivisions in t3e inter!American system 3ave c3aracteriEe< a<verse tren<s in t3e re-ion. A
strate-y of American lea<ers3i$ reGuires a reaffirmation of =.S. commitments to <ee$ly roote<
interests an< values. T3ese interests an< values must be su$$orte< by $olicies t3at actively
<efen< re$resentative <emocracy> 3uman ri-3ts> economic free<om> s3are< security> an< a
stron- inter!American system. =n<er t3e Jbama A<ministration> t3e =.S. 3as offere< no
com$re3ensive strate-y or $olicy for <ealin- &it3 +eneEuela an< u-o C3TveE. Jn ta?in- office>
t3e A<ministration ma<e it clear t3at it &as loo?in- for im$rovement in relations &it3 C3TveE
after =.S.F+eneEuela tensions <urin- t3e 7us3 years. Mo<est attem$ts at en-a-ementKa
3an<s3a?e bet&een :resi<ent Jbama an< C3TveE at t3e first Summit of t3e Americas in A$ril
2DDL an< a-reement to a return of ambassa<ors to bot3 countriesKfaile< to influence or alter
C3TveE5s be3avior. 0n @une 2DDL> t3e Jbama A<ministration initially Ioine< forces &it3
+eneEuela to <enounce t3e removal of :resi<ent Manuel Oelaya from office in on<uras in &3at
a$$eare< to be a C3TveE!ins$ire< $o&er -rab> an< it &as un$re$are< for t3e firestorm of anti!
Americanism unleas3e< by C3TveE &3en t3e =.S. si-ne< a <efense coo$eration a-reement &it3
Colombia in Au-ust 2DDL. C3TveE reIecte< :resi<ent Jbama5s nominee as =.S. ambassa<or to
+eneEuela in 2D1D. %eit3er mo<est sanctions on :,+SA for oil sales to 0ran in May 2D11 nor t3e
namin- of senior +eneEuelan officials as <ru- ?in-$ins 3as curbe< C3TveE5s ent3usiasm for anti!
American be3avior. T3e Jbama A<ministration> moreover> 3as <one little to focus a s$otli-3t on
C3TveE5s mis<ee<s> claimin- t3at verbal s$arrin- an< confrontations reflect an un$ro<uctive
#Col< 4ar' or Manic3ean vie& of relations an< only a<< fuel to t3e +eneEuelan lea<er5s anti!
=.S. bonfire. T3e A<ministration 3as been unable to buil< any sort of coalition critical of t3e
<eterioration of <emocratic -overnance un<er C3TveE in t3e JAS> an< <emocratic nations suc3
as 7raEil lar-ely i-nore t3e <eterioratin- con<itions of <emocracy. 2ven Colombian :resi<ent
@uan Manuel Santos 3as <o&n$laye< 3is nation5s concern about t3e state of <emocracy in
+eneEuela an< ties &it3 1A6C in an effort to a<vance a $eace <eal an< maintain a<vanta-eous
commercial relations.
/FF
4$ ;lo&al democracy )revents nuclear 'ar and extinction#
D6AMO.D" <5
(Barry> Senior fello& at oover 0nstituteA #:romotin- ,emocracy in t3e 1LLDs: Actors an<
0nstruments> 0ssues an< 0m$eratives>'
3tt$://carne-ie.or-/filea<min/Me<ia/:ublications/:,1/:romotin-Y2D,emocracyY2Din
Y2Dt3eY2D1LLDsY2DActorsY2Dan<Y2D0nstruments>Y2D0ssuesY2Dan<Y2D0m$eratives.$<f)
T3is 3ar<ly ex3austs t3e lists of t3reats to our security an< &ell bein- in t3e comin- years an<
<eca<es. 0n t3e former Vu-oslavia nationalist a--ression tears at t3e stability of 2uro$e an<
coul< easily s$rea<. T3e flo& of ille-al <ru-s intensifies t3rou-3 increasin-ly $o&erful
international crime syn<icates t3at 3ave ma<e common cause &it3 aut3oritarian re-imes an<
3ave utterly corru$te< t3e institutions of tenuous> <emocratic ones. %uclear> c3emical> an<
biolo-ical &ea$ons continue to $roliferate. T3e very source of life on 2art3> t3e -lobal
ecosystem> a$$ears increasin-ly en<an-ere<. Most of t3ese ne& an< unconventional t3reats to
security are associate< &it3 or a--ravate< by t3e &ea?ness or absence of <emocracy> &it3 its
$rovisions for le-ality> accountability> $o$ular soverei-nty> an< o$enness. B2SSJ%S J1 T2
T42%T02T C2%T=6V T3e ex$erience of t3is century offers im$ortant lessons. Countries t3at
-overn t3emselves in a truly <emocratic fas3ion <o not -o to &ar &it3 one anot3er. T3ey <o not
a--ress a-ainst t3eir nei-3bors to a--ran<iEe t3emselves or -lorify t3eir lea<ers. ,emocratic
-overnments <o not et3nically NcleanseN t3eir o&n $o$ulations> an< t3ey are muc3 less li?ely to
face et3nic insur-ency. ,emocracies <o not s$onsor terrorism a-ainst one anot3er. T3ey <o not
buil< &ea$ons of mass <estruction to use on or to t3reaten one anot3er. ,emocratic countries
form more reliable> o$en> an< en<urin- tra<in- $artners3i$s. 0n t3e lon- run t3ey offer better
an< more stable climates for investment. T3ey are more environmentally res$onsible because
t3ey must ans&er to t3eir o&n citiEens> &3o or-aniEe to $rotest t3e <estruction of t3eir
environments. T3ey are better bets to 3onor international treaties since t3ey value le-al
obli-ations an< because t3eir o$enness ma?es it muc3 more <ifficult to breac3 a-reements in
secret. :recisely because> &it3in t3eir o&n bor<ers> t3ey res$ect com$etition> civil liberties>
$ro$erty ri-3ts> an< t3e rule of la&> <emocracies are t3e only reliable foun<ation on &3ic3 a ne&
&orl< or<er of international security an< $ros$erity can be built.
/FF
1AC: FeneGuela Democracy Affirmative 4<
-!us" 'e offer t!e follo'ing )lan: -!e (nited
States federal government s!ould
engagement to'ard FeneGuela &y )roviding
economic aid tied to verifia&le im)rovements
in FeneGuelan election monitoring and
election re)orting#
/FF
Contention -'o is Solvency: -!e )lan gives reformers in FeneGuela
incentive and )o'er to create c!ange" leading eventually to restoration of
democracy in FeneGuela#
1$ (nconditionally giving money 'ill only &olster t!e current anti-American
sentiment in FeneGuela# -ying future assistance to verifia&le reforms 'ill
force FeneGuela to re&uild t!eir democracy and sto) su))orting terrorism#
CH*6S-:" 11
(:atric?> senior $olicy analyst at t3e 1orei-n :olicy 0nitiativeA #Jbama Must Stan< =$ for
,emocracy in :ost!C3aveE +eneEuela>' D*/15> 3tt$://&&&.usne&s.com/o$inion/blo-s/&orl<!
re$ort/2D1*/D*/15/after!c3aveE!us!must!encoura-e!<emocratic!veneEuela)
4as3in-ton must realiEe t3at a strate-y of en-a-ement alone &ill not ensure a rene&e< an< im$rove<
$artners3i$ &it3 Caracas. 1ailure to realiEe t3is &ill not only un<ermine &3atever influence America 3as
in t3e mont3s a3ea<> but also sen< a troublin- si-nal to +eneEuelaMs increasin-ly unite< $olitical
o$$osition. T3e Jbama a<ministration s3oul< instea< $ursue a more $rinci$le< $olicy to&ar<s a $ost!
C3aveE +eneEuela. 0n $articular> it s3oul<: :ressure Caracas to im$lement ?ey election reforms.
+eneEuelaMs o$$osition faces formi<able obstacles. 0nterim :resi<ent Ma<uro &ill use t3e -overnmentMs
near!mono$oly control of $ublic air&aves> its establis3e< net&or?s of $olitical $atrona-e an< last!minute
$ublic s$en<in- $ro-rams to bolster 3is $o$ulist a-en<a. 4as3in-ton s3oul< stress $ublicly an< $rivately
t3at any attem$ts to su$$ress or intimi<ate t3e o$$osition runs contrary to +eneEuelaMs constitution an<
t3e $rinci$les <efine< in t3e 0nter!American ,emocratic C3arter> &3ic3 &as a<o$te< by +eneEuela in
2DD1. To t3is $oint> @osQ CTr<enas> a former =SA0, actin- assistant a<ministrator for Batin America>
&rites> T3e +eneEuelan o$$osition continues to insist t3at t3e constitution (&3ic3 is of C3aveEMs o&n
&ritin-) be follo&e< an< 3ave <ra&n u$ a list of sim$le electoral reforms t3at &oul< level t3e $layin- fiel<
an< better allo& t3e +eneEuelan $eo$le to c3art t3eir o&n future free of c3avista an< forei-n interference.
,eman< free> fair an< verifiable elections. Alt3ou-3 +eneEuela announce< t3at a s$ecial election to
re$lace C3aveE &ill be 3el< next mont3> it is im$ortant to remember t3at elections alone <o not ma?e a
<emocracy. 0n<ee<> C3aveE lon- embrace< t3e r3etoric of <emocracy as 3e> in reality> consoli<ate<
executive $o&er> un<ermine< +eneEuelaMs $reviously <emocratic $olitical system an< altere< t3e
outcomes of election t3rou-3 corru$tion> frau< an< intimi<ation. T3e Jbama a<ministration s3oul< ma?e
clear t3at free an< fair elections> $ro$erly monitore< by res$ecte< international election observers> are
essential to +eneEuelaMs future stan<in- in t3e 3emis$3ere an< t3e &orl<. Bi?e&ise> Secretary of State
@o3n Cerry s3oul< &or? &it3 re-ional $artnersKinclu<in- (but not limite< to) 7raEil> Cana<a> Colombia
an< MexicoKto firmly encoura-e Ma<uroMs interim -overnment. A unifie< re-ional voice &oul< sen< a
$o&erful si-nal to C3aveEMs cronies in Caracas an< lon-time enablers in C3ina> 0ran an< 6ussia. Con<ition
future <i$lomatic an< economic relations. Corru$tion an< criminality &ere &i<es$rea< un<er t3e C3aveE
re-ime> as 3i-3!level -overnment an< military officials benefite< from close ties to corru$t businesses an<
international <ru- traffic?ers. Vet to <ate> t3e Jbama a<ministration 3as <one little to 3ol< +eneEuelaMs
lea<ers accountable. 4as3in-ton s3oul< ma?e clear t3at full <i$lomatic relations &it3 t3e =nite< States
&ill be contin-ent u$on +eneEuela en<in- ties to international terrorist -rou$s an< ro-ue re-imes li?e
0ran. 0f +eneEuela ta?es meanin-ful ste$s to en< t3ese ties an< ensure future elections> t3e =nite< States
s3oul< &or? &it3 Caracas an< t3e $rivate sector to reform +eneEuelaMs ener-y in<ustry an< i<entify ?ey
<evelo$ment $roIects an< reforms to im$rove t3e countryMs economic future. T3e =nite< States can $lay
an im$ortant role in s3a$in- +eneEuelaMs $ost!C3aveE future. 7ut to <o so> t3e Jbama a<ministration &ill
/FF
nee< to stan< &it3 t3e $eo$le of +eneEuela by $ublicly <efen<in- <emocratic $rinci$les an< t3e im$artial
rule of la& in Batin America.
/FF
3$ Conditioning ne' assistance on reform 'ill give t!e ne' government
)olitical 'ill to s!ift course a'ay from C!aveG%s )olicies#
*O+,*-S A.D DA;A" 11
Tra<e an< 2conomicsA Ser-io> +isitin- Senior :olicy Analyst for 2conomic 1ree<om in Batin
America at T3e erita-e 1oun<ationA #+eneEuela: =.S. S3oul< :us3 :resi<ent Ma<uro To&ar<
2conomic 1ree<om>' D//15> 3tt$://&&&.3erita-e.or-/researc3/re$orts/2D1*/D//veneEuela!us!
s3oul<!$us3!$resi<ent!ma<uro!to&ar<!economic!free<om)
4as3in-ton s3oul< insist on strict con<itionality before sen<in- a ne& =.S. ambassa<or to
Caracas or assentin- to any ne& len<in- to +eneEuela by international financial institutions
until t3e ne& -overnment: :ro<uces a com$re3ensive $lan for reform t3at re<uces t3e siEe of
t3e $ublic sector> reverses nationaliEations an< ex$ro$riations of lan< an< enter$rises &it3 Iust
com$ensation to o&ners> restores t3e in<e$en<ence of t3e central ban? an< Iu<icial institutions>
reforms t3e electoral system> an< submits to an internationally su$ervise< au<it of t3e
-overnment5s boo?s <urin- t3e C3aveE yearsA Ta?es ste$s to $rivatiEe :,+SA to brin- in
international eGuity $artners &it3 t3e ex$ertise an< financial ca$acity to restore :,+SA to t3e
3i-3 level of $rofessional o$erational an< mana-erial ex$ertise for &3ic3 it &as &i<ely res$ecte<
$rior to 1LLLA 0mme<iately sto$s all subsi<ies to Cuba an< terminates &asteful an<
economically <estabiliEin- subsi<y $ro-rams suc3 as :etroCaribe an< AB7AA Ceases
coo$eration &it3 international state s$onsors of terrorism (suc3 as 0ran) an< Ioins t3e
international community5s coo$erative efforts in t3e fi-3t a-ainst transnational crime> narco!
traffic?in-> an< terrorismA an< 6estores free<om of t3e $ress an< access to information for all
+eneEuelans. =se =.S. Bevera-e T3e foun<ations of economic free<om in +eneEuela &ere
severely &ea?ene< <urin- t3e 1/!year misrule by C3aveE. Alt3ou-3 C3aveE5s <eat3 may
a--ravate instability an< furt3er $olariEe +eneEuela> it nee< not be t3at &ay. +eneEuela is in
nee< of imme<iate an< s&ee$in- reforms> but t3ese c3an-es &ill ta?e time> effort>
<etermination> an<> above all> <e<icate< reformers in +eneEuela. T3e Jbama A<ministration
s3oul< ste$ into t3e breac3 &it3 active an< for&ar<!loo?in- $olicies to brin- +eneEuela bac?
into t3e -lobaliEe< economic system.
/FF
1$ (SA6D economic assistance !as successfully &een tied to democracy
)romotion initiatives in t!e )ast#
SCO-- A.D S-,,0," 11
(@ames> $rofessor at J?la3oma State =niversityA an< Carie> $rofessor at =niversity of 0llinois>
#S$onsorin- ,emocracy: T3e =nite< States an< ,emocracy Ai< to t3e ,evelo$in- 4orl<> 1L..F
2DD1>' 0nternational Stu<ies Puarterly (2D11)>
3tt$://&&&.uc<c.e<u/sites/<efault/files/u$loa<s/<ocuments/Aca<emic/Courses/+12S7/<emo
statistical.$<f)
Jne of t3e most salient <emocracy $romotion strate-ies 3as been =SA0, initiatives to $rovi<e
forei-n ai< of a variety of ?in<s <esi-ne< to foster <emocratic $ro-ress an< consoli<ation.
=SA0, mana-es billions of <ollars of economic assistance annually. 1rom t3ese fun<s>
in<ivi<ual =SA0, $roIects 3ave often been -eare< to&ar< &3at is no& terme< <emocracy
$romotion (stren-t3enin- in<e$en<ent Iu<iciaries> etc.). o&ever> since t3e en< of t3e Col<
4ar> ai< 3as been ex$licitly $rovi<e< to $romote an< su$$ort <emocratic transitions in reci$ient
countries t3rou-3 suc3 $ro-rams as t3e Su$$ort for 2astern 2uro$ean ,emocracy Act> t3e
1ree<om Su$$ort Act (1ormer Soviet 6e$ublics)> an< t3e ]],emocracy an< 9overnance55
initiative. 0n t3ese $ro-rams> =SA0, 3as stresse< four -oals: t3e rule of la& an< 3uman ri-3ts>
com$etitive elections an< $olitical $rocesses> civil society> an< accountable -overnance. As
1in?el> :ereE!Binan> Seli-son> an< AE$uru (2DD8:28) <etail> =SA0, 3as allocate< increasin-ly
lar-er amounts to its ]],emocracy an< 9overnance55 initiatives aroun< t3e &orl<. 0n constant
1LL5 <ollars> suc3 allocations -re& from S121 million to S;22 million $er year from 1LLD to
2DD*. 0n 2DD*> <emocracy ai< amounte< to about LY of =SA0, assistance. Suc3 ai< ty$ically
by$asses t3e more official to$!<o&n ai< c3annels to assist -rou$s an< im$lement $roIects
<irectly or t3rou-3 t3ir< $arties> inclu<in- an increasin-ly broa< an< active set of international
$rivate voluntary or-aniEations (Collins 2DDL). %aturally> =SA0, claims success in its
<emocracy $romotion efforts. Accor<in- to Cnac? (2DD/:252)> =SA0, $rou<ly notes t3at *8 of
t3e 5; states t3at successfully <emocratiEe< bet&een 1L.D an< 1LL5 &ere reci$ients of =SA0,
assistance. 1or exam$le> &3ile =SA0, 3as s$onsore< $ro-rams in 9uatemala off an< on for
<eca<es> t3at state -aine< increase< attention follo&in- t3e en< of its civil &ar in 1LL8. 1rom
1LL8 to 2DDD> =SA0, $rovi<e< more t3an S1. million in ai< for $ro-rams to train civil service
officers> stren-t3en civilian control of -overnment (in $articular t3e military)> rebuil< t3e Iustice
system> train an electoral tribunal> <evelo$ anti!corru$tion measures> an< $romote citiEen
a<vocacy an< increase< electoral $artici$ation. ,urin- t3is same time $erio<> 9uatemala5s
:olity 6e-ime Score stea<ily im$rove< from . in 1LL; to ^L in 2DDD. Similarly> Mala&i5s :olity
6e-ime Score of 5 in 1LL; im$rove< <ramatically by 1LLL> coinci<in- &it3 more t3an S11 million
of =SA0, fun<in- for trans$arency $ro-rams> Iu<iciary trainin-> election a<ministration>
$arliament <evelo$ment> an< $artici$ation $ro-rams. Alt3ou-3 un<oubte<ly t3e result of many
factors> t3ese an< ot3er a$$arent successes len< anec<otal su$$ort to =SA0,5s claims. *
/FF

,e!e-uela De)ocracy Case
/FF
3AC Harms H Democracy: A>t - ?1 @,lections are =airA B1>3C
51
-!ey say t!at FeneGuelan elections are already fair" &ut # # #
1$ C!aveG%s regime destroyed democratic institutions in FeneGuela" leaving
&e!ind unfair and o)aEue elections '!ere t!e 'inner is determined &efore
any votes are cast# His !and-)iced successor 'on and no recounts 'ere
verified internationally# ,xtend our 1AC S(006FA. evidence#
1$ -!e *ule of 0a' is under attac in FeneGuela#
CH*6S-:" 11
1or over a <eca<e> C3aveE le< i<eolo-ically!<riven efforts to ero<e =.S. stan<in- in Batin
America an< aroun< t3e -lobe. T3e $o$ulist lea<er ex$an<e< +eneEuelaMs ties &it3 ro-ue states
suc3 as Cuba an< 0ran> ai<e< an< $rotecte< terrorist or-aniEations suc3 as t3e 6evolutionary
Arme< 1orces of Colombia (1A6C)> an< actively un<ermine< t3e rule of la& in +eneEuela an<
t3rou-3out t3e Americas. 0n t3e 4estern emis$3ere alone> C3aveE use< recor< $etrol $rices to
$ro$ u$ anti!American socialist lea<ers> most notably in 7olivia> Cuba an< %icara-ua. C3aveE
leaves be3in< a bro?en economy> a <ee$ly <ivi<e< nation an< a <ysfunctional -overnment> all of
&3ic3 &ill ta?e yearsKif not <eca<esKto overcome. +eneEuela is $la-ue< &it3 <ouble!<i-it
inflation> mountin- bu<-et <eficits an< risin- levels of violence. 43ile t3e J:2C nation
maintains one of t3e &orl<Ms lar-est -eolo-ical oil reserves> cru<e ex$ortsK&3ic3 account for
rou-3ly /5 $ercent of fe<eral bu<-et revenuesK3ave <ecline< by nearly 3alf since 1LLL. T3e
=nite< States im$orts rou-3ly one million barrels from +eneEuela $er <ay.
/FF
3AC Harms H Democracy: A>t - ?1 @,lections are =airA B3>3C 54
1$ ,very institution in FeneGuela is falling a)art#
/A0S,* A.D D(C5,*MA." 11
(6ay> :3,.> senior $olicy analyst at T3e erita-e 1oun<ationA @essica> 6esearc3 Associate in t3e
,ou-las an< Sara3 Allison Center for 1orei-n :olicy Stu<ies> a <ivision of t3e Cat3ryn an<
S3elby Cullom ,avis 0nstitute for 0nternational Stu<ies> at T3e erita-e 1oun<ation> #+eneEuela
After C3aveE: =.S. S3oul< 6ally to ,emocracy>' */D8>
3tt$://&&&.3erita-e.or-/researc3/re$orts/2D1*/D*/veneEuela!after!<eat3!of!c3aveE!us!
s3oul<!rally!to!<emocracy)
%onet3eless> C3aveE5s successor &ill face many c3allen-es> inclu<in- over!<e$en<ence on oil
revenues an< a com$aratively sta-nant oil in<ustry starve< of muc3!nee<e< re!investment. i-3
inflation> a recent currency <evaluation> ca$ital fli-3t> foo< s3orta-es> an< extremely 3i-3 levels
of 3omici<e an< criminal violence &ill be 3an<e< <o&n. %ational investment 3as been
3a$3aEar<> an< infrastructure 3as crumble<. +eneEuelan society remains $olariEe<> overly
militariEe<> an< ri$e &it3 corru$tion. A fall in oil $rices or a <ebt crisis coul< sen< it into
recession. 1rom economic free<om to $erce$tions of corru$tion> +eneEuela race< relentlessly
to&ar< t3e bottom in -lobal ran?in-s.
4$ FeneGuela%s economy is colla)sing due to a failure of democracy#
*O+,*-S A.D DA;A" 11
T3e foun<ations of economic free<om in +eneEuela 3ave crumble<. 43en C3aveE too? office in
1LLL> +eneEuela score< 5/ out of 1DD $ossible $oints in T3e erita-e 1oun<ation/4all Street
@ournal5s annual 0n<ex of 2conomic 1ree<om. To<ay> 3o&ever> after 1/ years of C3aveE5s soft
aut3oritarian $o$ulism> +eneEuela merits a score of Iust *8 $oints. T3is nearly 2D!$oint $lun-e
is amon- t3e most severe ever recor<e< by a country in t3e 3istory of t3e 0n<ex. 0ts 2D1* ran?K
1;/t3 out of 1;L countriesK$laces +eneEuela amon- t3e most re$resse< nations in t3e &orl<.
+eneEuela5s <ismal economic free<om score is reflecte< in statistics t3at translate into real!time
3ar<s3i$ for +eneEuelans> &3o must s$en< more of t3eir incomes on 3i-3er $rices for
necessitiesKif t3ey can fin< t3em on em$ty store s3elves. T3ere are scarcities of nearly all sta$le
foo< an< fuel $ro<ucts. 0n fact> accor<in- to t3e 7anco Central of +eneEuela5s (7C+) s3orta-es
in<ex> +eneEuela faces t3e most severe foo< s3orta-es in four years. An< &3at foo< is available
comes at a $rice: Mary J59ra<y re$orts in T3e 4all Street @ournal t3at #over t3e $ast 1D years
inflation in foo< an< nonalco3olic bevera-es is 1>2./Y.' 1inancial <iseGuilibrium in +eneEuela
is t3e result of a s3ar$ly &i<enin- fiscal <eficit t3at reac3e< almost 15 $ercent of -ross <omestic
$ro<uct (9,:) last year. 9overnment control of t3e formerly in<e$en<ent 7C+ also contribute<
/FF
to a massive ex$ansion of t3e money su$$ly. T3ere are anec<otal re$orts in Caracas of $eo$le
$ayin- as muc3 as 2* bol\vars for one =.S. <ollar in t3e blac? mar?et as of early A$ril. T3e
official rate is Iust 8.* bol\vars $er <ollarKan< t3at is after a si-nificant *2 $ercent <evaluation
in 1ebruary.
/FF
3AC Harms H Democracy: A>t - ?3 @Democracy -urnA B1>3C 55
-!ey say t!at (#S# )ressure on FeneGuela 'ill lead to a &aclas!" !urting
(#S# credi&ility t!roug!out t!e region# -!is is argument is false#
1$ -!e (#S#% failure to tae an active role in re&uilding FeneGuelan
democracy is currently !urting our credi&ility around t!e glo&e# Only t!e
)lan can restore fait! in t!e (#S# democratic system# ,xtend our 1AC
/A0S,* evidence#
3$ O&ama%s current )ro-Maduro su))ort for one side of FeneGuelan )olitics
!as already caused &aclas!# Only a return to su))orting &road-&ased
democratic ideals restores t!e &alance#
S(006FA." 11
Some observers 3ave criticiEe< t3e Jbama A<ministration for ma?in- overtures to en-a-e &it3
Ma<uro> conten<in- t3at =.S. $olicy s3oul< focus on attem$tin- to ensure t3at t3e u$comin-
election is free an< fair. A 4as3in-ton :ost e<itorial from early Marc3 2D1* conten<e< t3at
#furt3er &ooin- of Mr. Ma<uro s3oul< &ait until 3e survives t3e scrum in 3is o&n $arty> &ins a
free vote an< <emonstrates t3at 3e is more t3an a Castro $u$$et.' 43ile it is li?ely t3at any
im$rovement in relations &ill remain on 3ol< <urin- t3e election $rocess> some analysts
maintain t3at it is im$ortant for =.S. $olicyma?ers to remember t3at ta?insi<es in +eneEuela5s
internal $olitics can be counter!$ro<uctive. Accor<in- to Cynt3ia Arnson of t3e 4oo<ro&
4ilson Center: #Su$$ortin- broa< $rinci$les suc3 as internal <ialo-ue to overcome $olariEation
for t3e rule of la& is not t3e same as $romotin- a $articular $olitical outcome> an a$$roac3 t3at
is <estine< to only bac?fire.' Jt3er analysts maintain t3at it is im$ortant for =.S. $olicyma?ers
to reco-niEe t3e level of $o$ular su$$ort in +eneEuela for :resi<ent C3TveE. 43ile t3ere &as
consi<erable controversy over $ast elections in &3ic3 C3TveE5s cam$ai-n unfairly utiliEe< state
resources an< broa<cast me<ia> t3e mar-ins of 3is electoral victories in four elections over t3e y
ears left no <oubt t3at 3e 3a< &on t3ose elections. is <eat3> at least in t3e s3ort to me<ium
term> coul< <ee$en $o$ular su$$ort for t3e :S=+.
/FF
3AC Harms H Democracy: A>t - ?3 @Democracy -urnA B3>3C 52
1$ ,ngagement 'ill allo' t!e (#S# to negotiate more regional trade"
ex)anding our influence t!roug!out 0atin America#
HA*FA*D C*6MSO." 11
(@o3n 9riffin> e<itorial &riter> #2n-a-e &it3 +eneEuela>' //D*>
3tt$://&&&.t3ecrimson.com/article/2D1*///*/arvar<!+eneEuela!C3aveE!<eat3/)
7eyon< lea<in- to more amicable> coo$erative relations3i$s &it3 Batin American nations>
en-a-ement &it3 +eneEuela &oul< also be economically a<visable. 4it3 t3e &orl<5s lar-est oil
reserves> countless ot3er valuable resources> an< stunnin- natural beauty to attract scores of
tourists> +eneEuela 3as Guite a bit to offer economically. 2ven no&> America can see t3e $ossible
benefits of economic en-a-ement &it3 Caracas by loo?in- at one of t3e fe& extant cases of suc3
coo$eration: 2ac3 year> t3ousan<s of nee<y Americans are able to ?ee$ t3eir 3omes 3eate<
because of t3e coo$eration bet&een +eneEuela an< a 7oston!area oil com$any. 2n-a-ement
&it3 +eneEuela &oul< also lea< to stron-er economic coo$eration &it3 t3e entirety of Batin
America. 0t &as mostly t3rou-3 +eneEuela5s efforts t3at t3e =nite< States &as unable to create a
#1ree Tra<e Area of t3e Americas>' an en<eavor t3at &oul< 3ave eliminate< most tra<e barriers
amon- $artici$ant nations> t3ereby lea<in- to more lucrative tra<e. 0n a &orl< &3ere t3e =nite<
States an< +eneEuela &ere to enIoy normaliEe< relations> all nations involve< &oul< benefit
from suc3 a-reements.
/FF
3AC Harms H Democracy: A>t - ?1 @,m)irically DeniedA B1>3C 58
-!ey say t!at (#S# democracy )romotion !as em)irically failed" &ut # # #
1$ -!e o))osite is true H democracy )romotion !as em)irically succeeded#
-!e (SA6D !as &roug!t a&out democracy in 12 countries# ,xtend our
SCO-- A.D S-,,0, evidence#
3$ Maduro%s s!ay election victory !as created a uniEue 'indo' of (#S#
influence# ,ven if democracy )romotion normally fails" Maduro cannot
afford to ignore (#S# )ressure#
CA*D,.AS" 11
(@ose> associate &it3 t3e consultin- firm +isionAmericasA serve< in various senior $ositions in
t3e 7us3 a<ministration &or?in- on inter!American relations> inclu<in- in t3e =.S. ,e$artment
of State> t3e %ational Security Council> an< t3e =.S. A-ency for 0nternational ,evelo$mentA
#+eneEuela5s conteste< election is an o$$ortunity for =.S. $olicy>' //18>
3tt$://s3a<o&.forei-n$olicy.com/$osts/2D1*/D//18/veneEuelaZsZconteste<ZelectionZisZanZo
$$ortunityZforZusZ$olicy)
A sur$risin- t3in- 3a$$ene< on t3e &ay to t3e coronation of +eneEuelan +ice :resi<ent %icolas Ma<uro
as t3e <esi-nate< 3eir to c3avismo> t3e movement create< by t3e obstre$erous former :resi<ent u-o
C3TveE> &3o succumbe< to cancer last mont3. 2vi<ently> a -oo< number of t3e +eneEuelan $eo$le
<eci<e< t3at brea<!an<!butter issues li?e inflation> s3orta-es of basic -oo<s> electricity blac?outs> an<
soarin- street crime &ere more im$ortant to t3em t3an t3e circuses C3TveE re-ularly su$$lie<. C3allen-er
enriGue Ca$riles> &3o lost t3e $resi<ential election to C3TveE last Jctober by some 11 $ercenta-e $oints>
narro&ly misse< an e$ic u$set> losin- t3is time to C3TveEMs c3osen successor by a count of 5D.; to /L.1
$ercent of t3e vote. Ca$riles 3as reIecte< t3e official tally an< <eman<e< a recount of t3e $a$er recei$ts of
eac3 +eneEuelan vote. N. . . e 3as no <oubt calculate< t3at a recount is more <an-erous to t3e
continuation of c3avismo t3an tryin- to tac?le +eneEuelaMs myria< $ost!C3TveE c3allen-es &3ile <o--e<
&it3 Guestions about 3is le-itimacy. %ot only must 3e a<<ress <eclinin- socio!economic con<itions !!
inclu<in- soarin- inflation> a bloate< $ublic sector> a cri$$le< $rivate one> electricity blac?outs> s3orta-es
of basic -oo<s> an< one of t3e 3i-3est 3omici<e rates in t3e &orl< !! 3e must also <eal &it3 a reinvi-orate<
o$$osition &3ile attem$tin- to mana-e a movement t3at is s$linterin- un<er t3e &ei-3t of corru$tion an<
com$etin- interests. Alrea<y> Ma<uro 3as been $ut on notice t3at 3e is un<er scrutiny from 3is o&n si<e.
,ios<a<o Cabello> t3e $o&erful 3ea< of t3e %ational Assembly an< lon-!seen as a Ma<uro rival &it3in
c3avismo> sai< of t3e election: NT3ese results reGuire <ee$ self!criticism ... BetMs turn over every stone to
fin< our faults> but &e cannot $ut t3e fat3erlan< or t3e le-acy of our comman<er (C3TveE) in <an-er.N
43at is clear is t3at +eneEuelaMs conteste< election li?ely $resa-es a $erio< of $olitical turmoil not seen in
t3e country since 2DD2> &3en C3TveE &as briefly ouste< from $o&er. 7ut it also $resents an extraor<inary
o$$ortunity for t3e =nite< States to actively <efen< its re-ional interests. %o one is a<vocatin- t3at t3e
Jbama a<ministration en-a-e in mu<!slin-in- contests &it3 u-o C3TveE &annabes> but neit3er s3oul<
&e remain silent on matters of $rinci$le an< =.S. security. 1or exam$le> t3e 0ranian $resence in
+eneEuela> inclu<in- t3e existence of a number of sus$icious in<ustrial facilities> an< t3e $ro<i-ious use
of +eneEuelan territory for <ru- s3i$ments to t3e =nite< States an< 2uro$e 3ave been tolerate< for too
/FF
lon- &it3out any effective =.S. res$onse. (Several 3i-3!ran?in- associates of t3e late :resi<ent C3TveE
3ave been <esi-nate< as N<ru- ?in-$insN by t3e =.S.
(2vi<ence continues on t3e next $a-e.)
/FF
3AC Harms HA>t - ?1 @,m)irically DeniedA B3>3C 59
(2vi<ence continue< from t3e $revious $a-e.)
Treasury ,e$artment. Ma<uroMs s3a?y stan<in- to<ay &it3in +eneEuela means t3ere is increase< levera-e
for t3e =nite< States to 3ol< t3e -overnment accountable for its t3reats to re-ional stability. 0t is not li?ely
Ma<uro &ill be able to &it3stan< t3e $ressure comin- not only from t3e o$$osition an< 3is o&n coalition>
but from t3e =nite< States as &ell. T3at can come in t3e form of more <esi-nations an< in<ictments of
+eneEuelan officials involve< in <ru- traffic?in- an< violatin- sanctions a-ainst 0ran> but also re$eate<
$ublic calls to <isassociate 3is -overnment from t3ese criminal activities. T3e a<ministration must also
continue to stan< be3in< t3e +eneEuelan o$$osition on matters of $rinci$le. +oters <eserve a clear
accountin- of &3at trans$ire< last Sun<ay. T3e future of t3eir country 3an-s in t3e balance.
1$ ,ngaging t!e ne' FeneGuelan government on democracy 'ill &olster
(#S# credi&ility glo&ally and erase )ast !y)ocrisy#
HA*FA*D C*6MSO." 11
,i$lomatically> $ositive en-a-ement &it3 +eneEuela &oul< be a maIor ste$ to&ar< buil<in-
American cre<ibility in t3e &orl< at lar-e> es$ecially in Batin America. C3TveE (alon- &it3 3is
frien<s t3e Castros in Cuba) &as able to bolster re-ional su$$ort for 3is re-ime by $ointin- out
t3e =nite< States5 attem$ts to forcibly intervene in +eneEuelan $olitics. Soon> a number of
$o$ulist -overnments in Batin America 3a< rallie< aroun< C3TveE an< 3is anti!American
$olicies. 0n 2DD/> 7olivia> 2cua<or> %icara-ua> an< t3ree Caribbean nations Ioine< &it3
+eneEuela an< Cuba to form t3e 7olivarian Alliance for t3e :eo$les of our America> an
or-aniEation in <irect o$$osition to t3e 1ree Tra<e Area in t3e Americas $ro$ose< (but never
realiEe<) by t3e 7us3 a<ministration. C3TveE -alvaniEe< t3ese nationsKmany of &3om 3ave
ex$erience< American interventionist tacticsKby vilifyin- America as a common> im$erial
enemy. =nfortunately for t3e =nite< States> its -eneral strate-y re-ar<in- +eneEuela 3as often
stren-t3ene< C3TveE5s $osition. 2very time 4as3in-ton c3astises +eneEuela for o$$osin-
American interests or attem$ts to brin- sanctions a-ainst t3e Batin American country> t3e
lea<er in Caracas (&3et3er it be C3TveE or Ma<uro) sim$ly -ains more evi<ence to&ar< 3is
claim t3at 4as3in-ton is a neo!colonialist me<<ler. T3is &ea?ens t3e =nite< States5 <i$lomatic
$osition> &3ile simultaneously stren-t3enin- +eneEuela5s. 0f 4as3in-ton &ants Batin America
to sto$ its current tren< of electin- leftist> C3avista -overnments> its first ste$ s3oul< be to a<o$t
a less astrin-ent tone in <ealin- &it3 +eneEuela. Caracas &ill be unable to $aint 4as3in-ton as
an a--ressor> an< 4as3in-ton &ill in turn -ain a better ima-e in Batin America.
CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 2/C >ar)s .ra! /dd <!
/FF
3AC Add-On Advantage: 6ran 5<
FeneGuela is using anti-Americanism to create an alliance 'it! 6ran t!at
allo's for secret nuclear 'ea)ons develo)ment" leading eventually to 'ar#
A$ -!e lac of democratic institutions in FeneGuela causes gro'ing anti-
Americanism and turns t!e region into a !ot&ed for terrorism#
/A0S,*" 17
(6ay> :3,.> senior $olicy analyst at T3e erita-e 1oun<ationA #State S$onsors of Terrorism:
Time to A<< +eneEuela to t3e Bist>' 1/1D>
3tt$://&&&.3erita-e.or-/researc3/re$orts/2D1D/D1/state!s$onsors!of!terrorism!time!to!a<<!
veneEuela!to!t3e!list)
T3e continuin- <ecay of <emocratic -overnance in +eneEuela> t3e loss of $olitical c3ec?s an<
balances> an< t3e <ecline of trans$arency cou$le< &it3 t3e militariEation of society an<
un$arallele< concentration of $o&er in t3e 3an<s of +eneEuelaMs aut3oritarian $o$ulist
$resi<ent> u-o C3TveE> is convertin- Caracas into more t3an a secon< avana. +eneEuela is
emer-inas a mecca for anti!=.S. 3ostility an< t3e -ate&ay for anti!American extremism into
t3e Americas. =n<er C3TveEMs lea<ers3i$> +eneEuela ma?es its c3ief international mission t3e
c3allen-in- of =.S. interests in t3e Americas an< aroun< t3e -lobe.(1) Since @anuary 2DDL> t3e
Jbama A<ministrationMs attem$ts to im$rove relations &it3 t3e stri<ently anti!America C3TveE
3ave yiel<e< little more t3an em$ty -estures. Alt3ou-3 ambassa<orial relations &ere restore< in
@une 2DDL> C3TveE 3as si-nale< rene&e< su$$ort for t3e narcoterrorism of t3e 1A6C> be-un
t3reatenin- an< $unis3in- Colombia for its <efense coo$eration a-reement &it3 t3e =.S.> 3el$e<
<estabiliEe on<uras by bac?in- former $resi<ent Manuel OelayaMs ille-al referen<um> $us3e<
a3ea< &it3 maIor 6ussian arms acGuisitions> an< seale< ever closer ties> inclu<in- Ioint nuclear
ventures> &it3 0ran. +eneEuela $lays an increasin-ly $rominent role as a $rimary transit country
for cocaine flo&in- from Colombia to t3e =.S.> 2uro$e> an< 4est Africa. %evert3eless> t3e
Jbama A<ministration> accor<in- to t3e :resi<entMs %ational Security Council a<viser on Batin
America> ,an 6estre$o> <oes not consi<er +eneEuela to be a c3allen-e to =.S. national security:
:resi<ent Jbama N<oes not see +eneEuela as a c3allen-e to =.S. national security. T3ere is no
Col< 4ar nor ot 4ar. T3ose t3in-s belon- to t3e $ast.N
/FF
3AC Add-On Advantage: 6ran 2 7
+$ Maduro is continuing C!aveG%s )olicies of coGying u) to 6ran in order to
create artificial legitimacy for !is government# -!e recent offer of asylum to
Sno'den s!o's Maduro is des)erate to )ull 6ran closer &y enflaming anti-
Americanism#
O%;*AD:" 11
(Mary> member of t3e e<itorial boar< at T3e 4all Street @ournal an< former &inner of 4alter
@u<< 1ree<om A&ar< from T3e 1un< for American Stu<iesA #43y +eneEuela Jffers Asylum to
Sno&<en>' ;/D;>
3tt$://online.&sI.com/article/S71DDD1/2/12;..;*2/*LL/D/5;.5LD5D*.58;/D.*..3tml)
is offer of refu-e to Mr. Sno&<en is most easily ex$laine< as an attem$t to <istract +eneEuelans from t3e
increasin-ly <ifficult <aily economic -rin< an< -et t3em to rally aroun< t3e fla- by $uttin- a t3umb in
=ncle SamMs eye. Vet t3ere is somet3in- else. +eneEuela 3as reason to fear increasin- irrelevance as %ort3
America becomes more ener-y in<e$en<ent. T3is ma?es 0ran crucial. Mr. Ma<uro may be tryin- to
establis3 3imself as a lea<er as committe< to t3e anti!American cause as &as 3is $re<ecessor> u-o
C3TveE> &3o 3a< a stron- $ersonal bon< &it3 former 0ranian :resi<ent Ma3mou< A3ma<ineIa<. e also
nee<s to establis3 3is o&n $lace in Sout3 American $olitics. 6eac3in- out to Mr. Sno&<en is a &ay to sen<
a messa-e to t3e &orl< t3at not&it3stan<in- Secretary of State @o3n CerryMs feeble attem$t at
ra$$roc3ement &it3 Caracas last mont3> $ost!C3TveE +eneEuela 3as no intention of c3an-in- t3e course
of t3e 7olivarian revolution. 6at3er> as t3e economy of t3e once!&ealt3y oil nation <eteriorates> Mr.
Ma<uro is si-nalin- t3at +eneEuela &ants to become an even more loyal -eo$olitical ally an< strate-ic
$artner of 6ussia an< 0ran. Mr. Ma<uroMs $resi<ency is still vie&e< as ille-itimate by rou-3ly 3alf of t3e
+eneEuelan electorate> &3o vote< for c3allen-er enriGue Ca$riles in A$ril. T3e official rate of t3e
currency ?no&n as t3e Nstron- bol\varN is 8.* to t3e <ollar. 7ut a s3orta-e of -reenbac?s 3as force<
im$orters into t3e blac? mar?et &3ere t3e currency tra<es at some&3ere bet&een *1 an< *;. T3ere are
$rice controls on Iust about everyt3in-> $ro<ucin- s3orta-es of foo< an< me<icine. 2ven so> inflation is
no& 3overin- at aroun< *5Y> &3ic3 means t3at some ven<ors are s?irtin- -overnment man<ates. 0n a
free society &it3 com$etitive elections> economic c3aos -enerally $rom$ts a -overnment res$onse
<esi-ne< to miti-ate 3ar<s3i$. +eneEuela nee<s liberaliEation. 7ut t3at &oul< t3reaten t3e $rofits of t3e
military> &3ic3 is lar-ely runnin- t3e country. 43en t3e nation ran out of toilet $a$er in t3e s$rin-> it &as
t3e $erfect meta$3or for t3e faile< state. 7ut Mr. Ma<uroMs forei-n minister> 2lias @aua> res$on<e< by
scol<in- +eneEuelans for materialism> as?in-> N,o you &ant a fat3erlan< or toilet $a$erRN 0f t3e
-overnment is sayin- t3at it <oesnMt -ive a <amn about t3e economic <eat3 s$iral> t3is is because it
believes it 3as t3e nation in a 3ea< loc?. State control of informationKby a $resi<ent &3o 3as no& become
t3e &orl<Ms foremost <efen<er of Mr. Sno&<enKis almost com$lete. T3e last lar-e in<e$en<ent cable
television station &as finally sol< in A$ril an< t3e in<e$en<ent $rint me<ia mar?et is s3rin?in-. Anot3er
tool of re$ression> &3ic3 Mr. Sno&<en su$$ose<ly ab3ors> is t3e ability to s$y on citiEens. C3TveE 3a< no
com$unction about recor<in- t3e conversations of a<versaries> an< t3e $ractice continues un<er Mr.
Ma<uro. Com$etin- factions insi<e t3e -overnment may even be -ettin- into t3e act. T&o recent 3i-3!
$rofile casesKone involvin- a &ell!?no&n -overnment insi<er alle-in- crimes by members of t3e
-overnment in a conversation &it3 t3e Cuban military> an< anot3er tar-etin- an o$$osition $oliticianK
3ave increase< t3e feelin- amon- citiEens t3at t3ere is no suc3 t3in- as a $rivate conversation. Vet even a
-overnment t3at loc?s <o&n t3e $ress an< s$ies on its o&n citiEens &it3out ans&erin- for it nee<s allies.
%o nation can survive in full isolation> es$ecially &3en its economic $o&er colla$ses. Batin <es$ots -et
/FF
t3is. Ar-entina is <e$ositin- -oo<&ill in its account &it3 0ran by bloc?in- Alberto %ismanMs tri$ to
4as3in-ton. +eneEuela> by offerin- refu-e to 2<&ar< Sno&<en> is un<oubte<ly ma?in- a similar offerin-
to t3e enemies of its enemies.
/FF
3AC Add-On Advantage: 6ran 21
C$ 6ran is using FeneGuela to create an intelligence net'or in 0atin
America ca)a&le of )lotting and executing attacs on t!e (nited States#
+,*MA." 11
(0lya> vice $resi<ent of t3e American 1orei-n :olicy CouncilA #0ran on our bac? $orc3: Column>'
8/D5> 3tt$://&&&.usato<ay.com/story/o$inion/2D1*/D8/D5/ar-entina!iran!terrorism!
column/2*.L2;1/)
Bast &ee?> Ar-entine state $rosecutor Alberto %isman <ro$$e< a bombs3ell &3en 3e issue< 3is
lon-!a&aite< in<ictment in t3e 1LL/ bombin- of t3e Ar-entine 0srael Mutual Association
(AM0A) in 7uenos Aires. T3e 5D2!$a-e re$ort $ins t3e blame for t3e attac? !! &3ic3 ?ille< .5
an< &oun<e< 3un<re<s more in &3at ex$erts call Batin AmericaMs L/11 !! sGuarely on t3e
0slamic 6e$ublic of 0ran. 0n <oin- so> it $rovi<es a timely remin<er t3at 0ranMs ra<ical re-ime is
active in t3e 4estern emis$3ere an< t3at its $resence 3ere is far broa<er t3an is commonly
un<erstoo<. @ust 3o& muc3 is still a matter of consi<erable <ebate. 0ranMs activities in t3e
Americas 3ave ex$lo<e< over t3e $ast ei-3t years> $ro$elle< in lar-e $art by t3e &arm $ersonal
ties bet&een out-oin- 0ranian :resi<ent Ma3mou< A3ma<ineIa< an< recently!<ecease<
+eneEuelan stron-man u-o C3aveE. =sin- +eneEuela as a -ate&ay into t3e re-ion> Te3ran
succee<e< in for-in- strate-ic $artners3i$s &it3 li?e!min<e< -overnments in 7olivia an<
2cua<or> an< ex$an<in- its contacts &it3 :eru> %icara-ua an< a number of ot3er re-ional
$layers. ,es$ite t3ese -ains> 3o&ever> some ex$erts still ten< to see 0ranMs efforts as little more
t3an an Naxis of annoyance.N 7ut %ismanMs in<ictment convincin-ly says ot3er&ise. Jver t3e
$ast t3ree <eca<es> t3e Ar-entine brief alle-es> 0ran 3as succee<e< in Guietly erectin- a net&or?
of intelli-ence bases an< covert centers t3at s$ans no fe&er t3an ei-3t Batin American countries:
7raEil> :ara-uay> =ru-uay> C3ile> Colombia> 9uyana> Trini<a< an< Toba-o> an< Suriname. T3is
infrastructure &as instrumental in allo&in- 0ranian $roxies to carry out t3e AM0A bombin-> as
&ell as to $lot ot3er attac?s (suc3 as an unsuccessful 2DD; attem$t by 9uyanese national Ab<ul
Ca<ir to blo& u$ fuel tan?s at %e& Vor?Ms @o3n 1. Cenne<y Air$ort). Moreover> %isman 3as
ma<e clear t3e net&or? enablin- 0ran to carry out attac?s in t3e re-ion> or a-ainst t3e =nite<
States> isnMt sim$ly a relic of 3istory. 6at3er> t3ereMs -oo< reason to believe t3at it remains bot3
intact an< functionin-. 0n fact> it coul< soon -et even bi--er. T3at is because t3e Batin American
re-ion as a &3ole is in a state of $rofoun< $olitical flux. 0n +eneEuela> %icolas Ma<uro> &3o
succee<e< u-o C3aveE as $resi<ent t3is $ast A$ril> is $resi<in- over an all!out im$losion of t3e
national economy> com$lete &it3 s3orta-es on commo<ities suc3 as toilet $a$er> su-ar an<
flour. %ext <oor in Colombia> t3e -overnment of :resi<ent @uan Manuel Santos 3as embar?e<
u$on a com$licate< an< controversial $eace $rocess &it3 t3e extremist 1A6C militia !! one t3at
coul< result in t3e 1A6C -ainin- si-nificantly in bot3 $olitical relevance an< actual $o&er. 2ven
in %ismanMs o&n Ar-entina> a ne& an< softer attitu<e to&ar< 0ran 3as be-un to ta?e root>
manifeste< in -ro&in- bilateral tra<e ties an< tal?s of a Ntrut3 commissionN to reexamine t3e
AM0A case (an<> ostensibly> to re&rite 3istory in Te3ranMs favor). T3ese <evelo$ments coul<
$rovi<e ne& o$$ortunities for 0ran to ex$an< its re-ional influence an< its strate-ic ca$abilities.
/FF
/FF
D$ FeneGuela%s oil 'ealt! maes it uniEuely im)ortant to 6ran%s )lans in
0atin America" '!ic! include &uilding ne' nuclear facilities and launc!ing
attacs on t!e (nited States#
.O*6,;A" 11
(6o-er> former assistant secretary of state for 4estern emis$3ere affairs (Cana<a> Batin
America> an< t3e Caribbean) an< a former =.S. ambassa<or to t3e Jr-aniEation of American
StatesA #eEbolla3Ms strate-ic s3ift: A -lobal terrorist t3reat>' */2D>
3tt$://&&&.aei.or-/s$eec3/forei-n!an<!<efense!$olicy/re-ional/mi<<le!east!an<!nort3!
africa/3eEbolla3s!strate-ic!s3ift!a!-lobal!terrorist!t3reat/)
To com$re3en< &3at 0ran is u$ to> &e must set asi<e conventional &is<om about its ambitions> strate-ies
an< tactics an< follo& t3e evi<ence &3ere it lea<s. 1or exam$le> in t3e aftermat3 of a braEen $lot
<iscovere< in Jctober 2D11 in &3ic3 0ranian a-ents cons$ire< &it3 su$$ose< Mexican <ru- cartel lea<ers
to commit a terrorist bombin- in t3e 3eart of our %ation5s ca$ital> ,irector of %ational 0ntelli-ence>
@ames 6. Cla$$er> reveale< t3at #0ranian officials' at t3e 3i-3est levels #are no& more &illin- to con<uct
an attac? in t3e =nite< States[.' 9eneral Cla$$er also re$orte< t3at 0ran5s so!calle< #su$reme lea<er' Ali
C3amenei &as $robably a&are of t3is $lannin-. 0ranian officials 3ave ma<e no secret of t3e re-ime5s
intention to carry its asymmetrical stru--le to t3e streets of t3e =nite< States. 1or exam$le> in a May 2D11
s$eec3 in 7olivia> 0ran5s ,efense Minister A3ma< +a3i Ma3mou< A3ma<ineIa< announce< a five!nation s&in- t3rou-3 Batin
America aime< at a<vancin- its influence an< o$erational ca$abilities on t3e =.S. <oorste$. T3e
intelli-ence community5s fres3 assessment of 0ran5s &illin-ness to &a-e an attac? on our soil lea<s to t3e
inesca$able conclusion t3at Te3eran5s activities near our 3omelan< constitute a very real t3reat t3at can
no lon-er be i-nore<. 7racin- for a $otential s3o&<o&n over its illicit nuclear $ro-ram an< embol<ene<
by inattention from 4as3in-ton in Batin America> 0ran 3as sou-3t strate-ic a<vanta-e in our
nei-3bor3oo<. 0t also is $re$arin- to $lay t3e narcoterrorism car<Kex$loitin- its $artners3i$ &it3
+eneEuelan o$eratives> reac3in- into Mexico> an< activatin- a <eca<es ol< net&or? in Ar-entina> 7raEil
an< else&3ere in t3e re-ion. To<ay> a s3a<o&y net&or? of embassies> 0slamic centers> financial
institutions> an< commercial an< in<ustrial enter$rises in several countries affor<s 0ran a $3ysical
$resence in relatively close $roximity to t3e =nite< States. 0ran is &ell!$ositione< to use its relations3i$s
&it3 t3ese countries to $ose a <irect t3reat to =.S. territory> strate-ic &ater&ays an< American allies. 0ran
also 3as $rovi<e< t3e +eneEuelan military &it3 &ea$on systems t3at -ave +eneEuela un$rece<ente<
ca$abilities to t3reaten its nei-3bors an< t3e =nite< States. %otably> a 3alf!<oEen 0ranian com$anies
sanctione< by =.%.> =.S. or 2uro$ean aut3orities 3ave built sus$icious in<ustrial installations at various
sites in +eneEuela. T3ese facilities &ere im$ortant enou-3 to attract secret visits by 0ranian MaIor 9eneral
Amir Ali aIiEa<e3> t3e 6evolutionary 9uar< Cor$s aeros$ace comman<er &3o $reviously 3ea<e< 0ran5s
missile $ro-ram> in @uly 2DDL an< %ovember 2D11. +2%2O=2BA5S :0+JTAB 6JB2 S=::J6T0%9 06A%
A%, T266J60SM 0n recent con-ressional testimony> investi-ative Iournalist ,ou- 1ara3 <escribes #t3e
mer-in- of (u-o C3TveE5s) 7olivarian 6evolution5s criminal!terrorist $i$eline activities an< t3ose of t3e
criminal!terrorist $i$eline of ra<ical extremist -rou$s (eEbolla3 in $articular) su$$orte< by t3e 0ranian
re-ime.' Suc3 ties are invaluable to -rou$s li?e eEbolla3> as t3ey affor< t3em $rotection> safe 3avens in
&3ic3 to o$erate> an< even <i$lomatic status an< immunity. 0n s3ort> +eneEuela $lays a sin-ular role as a
/FF
$latform for t3e eEbolla3 t3reat in t3e Americas. 0t is im$ortant to bear in min< t3at +eneEuela is not
Iust anot3er <evelo$in- country t3at is unable to control its territory. +eneEuela is an oil!ric3 state . . . .
/FF
,$ FeneGuela%s alliance 'it! 6ran 'ill lead to 'ides)read /MD
)roliferation and terrorism" ultimately causing nuclear 'ar 'it! t!e (nited
States#
/A0S,*" 17
NT3e mulla3s are no& $art of a -lobal anti!American alliance>N conclu<es Mic3ael Be<een of t3e
1oun<ation for ,efense of ,emocracies> Nt3at inclu<es Syria> 6ussia> 2ritrea> C3ina> Cuba>
+eneEuela> %icara-ua> an< 7olivia> alon- &it3 terrorist or-aniEations from eEbolla3> amas>
an< 0slamic @i3a< to t3e Colombian 1A6C.N Counter!terrorism s$ecialist an< investi-ative
re$orter ,ou-las 1ara3 sees +eneEuela as a critical Iuncture $oint for a broa< un<er-roun<
$i$eline of criminal connectivity t3at allo&s anti!American lea<ers> terrorists> an< criminal
or-aniEations to move $eo$les> arms> <ru-s> an< even 4M,s &it3 <an-erous a-ility an<
secretiveness. NT3e 0ranians>N conclu<es Man3attan ,istrict Attorney 6obert Mor-ent3au> N&it3
t3e 3el$ of +eneEuela> are $re$are< to violate any $ro$ose< sanctions re-ime.N 0f an 0ranian!=.S.
military s3o&<o&n occurs> +eneEuela 3as t3e $otential to rally as a strate-ic $artner &it3 0ran.
Terrorist attac?s> oil $rice s$i?es or $ro<uction interru$tions> an< $olitical unrest are o$tions on
C3TveEMs menu of c3oice if 3e elects to turn verbal commitments to 0ran into actions in or<er to
<istract 3is arc3enemy> t3e =.S.> from its mission in sto$$in- 0ranMs nuclear &ea$ons $ro-ram.
3AC Solvency: A>t - ?1 @Anti-Democracy +aclas!A B1> 1 C 24
-!ey say t!at t!e )lan 'ill lead to an anti-democracy &aclas!" &ut # # #
1$ -!e )lan creates )olitical 'ill and momentum for t!e ne' government to
distance t!emselves from C!aveG" and allo's ne' democratic movements
to succeed# ,xtend t!e 1AC CH*6S-: and *O+,*-S A.D DA;A evidence"
'!ic! is more s)ecific to t!e )ost-C!aveG situation in FeneGuela#
3$ -ying (#S# economic assistance to s)ecific democratic reforms 'ill allo'
FeneGuela to transition from C!aveG to sta&ility#
/A0S,* A.D D(C5,*MA." 11
A $rinci$le< =.S. $olicy to&ar< +eneEuela s3oul< be -ui<e< by continue< commitments to
broa<!base<Knot Iust electoralK<emocracy ens3rine< in t3e 2DD1 0nter!American ,emocratic
C3arter. :reservation of t3e constitutional or<er in +eneEuela reGuires ne& elections t3at are
not only free but fair. T3e interests of t3e =.S. &ill be best serve< &it3 t3e return of fully
functionin- <emocracy (se$aration of $o&ers> rule of la&> $rotection of in<ivi<ual ri-3ts an<
liberties) in +eneEuela. To ac3ieve t3ese obIectives> t3e Jbama A<ministration s3oul<: ,eliver
by $ublic <i$lomacy c3annels a com$re3ensive re$ort on t3e costs an< conseGuences of t3e
C3aveE re-imeA 0nsist on maintainin- t3e *D!<ay electoral timetable an< $ress for real
international electoral observationA Si-nal clearly t3at anyt3in- ot3er t3an free an< fair elections
&ill o$en t3e <oor to $ossible <i$lomatic an< economic sanctionsA Continue to investi-ate
narco!corru$tion an< collect intelli-ence on criminal> terrorist> an< 0ranian activity in
+eneEuelaA an< 6efrain from restorin- relations at t3e ambassa<orial level &it3out a firm
+eneEuelan commitment to coo$erate in fi-3tin- <ru- traffic?in- an< international terrorism.
Too 7i- to 0-nore T3e &ee?s an< mont3s a3ea< are a $erio< of o$$ortunity an< $eril in
+eneEuela. T3e Jbama A<ministration s3oul< not be content &it3 lea<in- from be3in< or
claimin- more $ressin- en-a-ements. 1rom <efen<in- <emocracy to $reservin- stability> a $ost!
C3aveE +eneEuela is too bi- to i-nore.
3AC Solvency: A>t - ?1 @Anti-Democracy +aclas!A B3> 1 C 25
1$ Maduro is 'eaer t!an C!aveG and (#S# su))ort for t!e democracy
movement t!ere can mae a ey difference#
CA*D,.AS" 11
(@ose> associate &it3 t3e consultin- firm +isionAmericasA serve< in various senior $ositions in
t3e 7us3 a<ministration &or?in- on inter!American relations> inclu<in- in t3e =.S. ,e$artment
of State> t3e %ational Security Council> an< t3e =.S. A-ency for 0nternational ,evelo$mentA
#Jbama must stan< firm on +eneEuela >' //1L>
3tt$://s3a<o&.forei-n$olicy.com/$osts/2D1*/D//1L/obamaZmustZstan<ZfirmZonZveneEuela)
Ma<uro is in a $anic. e ?no&s 3e cannot 3an<le <eclinin- socio!economic con<itions in t3e
face of a reinvi-orate< o$$osition> <issension in 3is o&n ran?s> an< an en-a-e< =.S. -overnment
stan<in- firm on $rinci$le re-ar<in- t3e le-itimacy of 3is election. Jf course> t3e a<ministration
&ill face a vociferous $ublic cam$ai-n by c3avista sym$at3iEers $ressurin- it to acce$t Sun<ayMs
<is$ute< result. Alrea<y> t3e fec?less Jr-aniEation of American States Secretary 9eneral @osQ
Mi-uel 0nsulEa 3as bac?trac?e< from t3e or-aniEationMs initial stron- statement on be3alf of a
recount an< no& 3as acce$te< t3e result. 6eco-nition $ro$onents &ill tell us t3e =nite< States
faces NisolationN in t3e re-ion if t3e a<ministration <oesnMt reco-niEe Ma<uro (only :anama an<
:ara-uay 3ave Ioine< t3e call for a recount) an< t3at its su$$ose< intransi-ence $lays ri-3t into
Ma<uroMs 3an<s> allo&in- 3im to &3i$ u$ nationalist sentiment. %onsense. T3ose $ro$osin-
suc3 ar-uments fail to reco-niEe t3at -overnments are $ursuin- interests. Certain countries
suc3 as 7raEil> Colombia> an< even 6ussia an< C3ina> 3ave benefite< -reatly from economic ties
&it3 +eneEuela un<er C3TveE an< t3eir s3ort!si-3te< vie& is to try an< ?ee$ t3at s$i-ot o$en.
Most citiEens t3rou-3out t3e re-ion> 3o&ever> ten< to be more a$$reciative of $rinci$les> suc3
as t3e security an< inte-rity of oneMs vote. Jne can be sure t3at> in case of a <is$ute< election in
t3eir o&n country> t3ey &oul< 3o$e to count on external su$$ort for an 3onest accountin- in
t3eir o&n electoral $rocesses. Secon<ly> as t3e election Iust <emonstrate<> Ma<uro is not
C3TveE> an< 3is ca$acity to &3i$ u$ anyt3in- but official violence a-ainst +eneEuelans
$rotestin- in t3e streets is extremely <oubtful (4arnin-: -ra$3ic $3otos 3ere). 0n s3ort> no one
s3oul< be misle< by t3e noisema?ers. A continue< firm stan< on be3alf of a clean election &ill
resonate $ositively t3rou-3out t3e re-ion> sen<in- a stron- si-nal to all <emocrats t3at t3e
=nite< States <oes in<ee< care an< t3at intimi<ation an< violence 3ave no $lace in any
<emocracy. 0t is not li?ely t3at suc3 sentiments &ill s&ay Ma<uro an< 3is Cuban a<visors to
acce$t any sort of recount> but it &ill certainly $lace t3e =nite< States on t3e ri-3t si<e of t3e
<ebates an< confrontations to come.
3AC Solvency: A>t - ?1 @Anti-Democracy +aclas!A B 1 > 1 C 22
4$ C!aveG%s deat! !as o)ened an o))ortunity for t!e (#S# to create c!ange#
CH*6S-:" 11
+eneEuelaMs u$comin- election to re$lace t3e late u-o C3aveE -ives t3e country an im$ortant
o$$ortunity to brea? a&ay from over a <eca<eMs &ort3 of stron-man ruleKan< move to&ar<s
better -overnance> im$rove< internal security an< stability> a stron-er an< more vibrant
economy> an< a truly constructive role in re-ional an< -lobal affairs. 0tMs critical t3at t3e =nite<
States <o &3at it can to encoura-e +eneEuela to seiEe t3at o$$ortunity.
5$ FeneGuela is in des)erate need of (#S# economic assistance" '!ic!
esta&lis!es t!e economic conditions for )olitical c!ange#
.,;*O4O.-," 11
(,iana +illiers> nonresi<ent senior fello& &it3 t3e Batin America 0nitiative un<er 1orei-n :olicy
at 7roo?in-s 0nstituteA #u-o C3aveEMs ,eat3 an J$$ortunity for More :ra-matic 6elations3i$
&it3 =.S.>' D*/D5> 3tt$://&&&.broo?in-s.e<u/blo-s/u$!front/$osts/2D1*/D*/D5!c3aveE!
veneEuela!ne-ro$onte)
T3e <eat3 of u-o C3aveE $resents an o$$ortunity for t3e ne& +eneEuelan lea<ers3i$ to tone
<o&n t3e r3etoric of anti!Americanism an< $ut our bilateral relations on a $ra-matic basis. T3e
=.S. remains t3e $rinci$al $urc3aser of +eneEuelan oil &3ic3 is refine< in 9ulf Coast refineries
for later ex$ort to C3ina an< ot3er mar?ets. 1oo< an< $3armaceutical $ro<ucts> cosmetics>
s$are $arts an< electrical eGui$ment are bou-3t from t3e =.S. alt3ou-3 $ayment for t3ese -oo<s
is <elaye< an< consumers must &ait / to 5 mont3s for t3e ne& inventory to arrive at +eneEuelan
$orts. +eneEuela is in t3e mi<st of an economic crisis &it3 s3orta-es of =.S. <ollars> a
<evaluation of *2 $ercent an< t3e $ros$ect of searin- inflation. 1urt3ermore> +eneEuela nee<s
forei-n <irect investment> tec3nical ex$ertise an< s$are $arts from t3e =.S. 6at3er t3an
<emoniEin- 4as3in-ton> an o$$ortunity exists for Caracas to reframe t3e relations3i$ to a
realistic mo<e.
3AC Solvency: A>t - ?3 @Conditioning f ailsA B1>3C 28
-!ey say conditioning assistance doesn%t 'or &ecause t!ey%re too difficult
to verify and )lan" &ut # # #
1$ Conditions convince t!e FeneGuelan government to coo)erate and
im)rove t!eir election system# -!ey need (#S# assistance so t!ey !ave a
strong incentive to go along 'it! t!e )lan rig!t a'ay# ,xtend our 1AC
CH*6S-: evidence#
3$ O&ama%s )osition on Maduro 'ill &e !ig!ly influential H t!e )lan 'ill
mae t!e difference for FeneGuelan democracy#
CH*6S-:" 11
(:atric?> senior $olicy analyst at t3e 1orei-n :olicy 0nitiativeA #o& Jbama 0s Sin?in-
+eneEuelaMs J$$osition>' D8/15>
3tt$://&&&.realclear&orl<.com/articles/2D1*/D8/15/3o&ZobamaZisZsin?in-ZveneEuelasZo$$
ositionZ1D52*L.3tml)
1or +eneEuelaMs o$$osition> t3e Jbama a<ministrationMs ea-erness to revive relations &it3
Ma<uro is a $unc3 to t3e -ut. :ro!Ma<uro le-islators in t3e %ational Assembly 3ave banne<
o$$osition la&ma?ers from committee 3earin-s an< s$ea?in- on t3e assembly floor. Jt3er
outs$o?en critics of t3e re-ime face criminal c3ar-es> an< -overnment officials re$eate<ly vilify
an< slan<er Ca$riles. 43atMs &orse> if t3e =nite< States -rants or is $erceive< to -rant
le-itimacy to t3e Ma<uro -overnment> t3at coul< -ive furt3er cover to t3e re-ime as it
systematically un<ermines +eneEuelaMs remainin- institutions. T3e Jbama a<ministrationMs
overtures to Ma<uroMs -overnment come as t3e re-ion is increasin-ly s?e$tical of t3e C3aveE
successorMs rei-n. Bast mont3> Ca$riles met &it3 Colombian :resi<ent @uan Manuel Santos in
7o-ota. C3ileMs Senate unanimously $asse< a resolution ur-in- a total au<it of all $ollin-
stations. An< in recent &ee?s> o$$osition la&ma?ers le< by Mar\a Corina Mac3a<o> a
re$resentative from t3e %ational Assembly of +eneEuela> 3ave 3el< meetin-s in ca$itals aroun<
t3e re-ion to e<ucate forei-n lea<ers about Ma<uroMs ille-itimate 3ol< on $o&er. 6at3er t3an
acce$t Ma<uroMs stron-man tactics> t3e Jbama a<ministration s3oul< ta?e a firm stan< an<
ma?e clear to Caracas t3at any ste$s to un<ermine t3e countryMs constitution or t3reaten t3e
o$$osition &ill be <etrimental to bilateral ties &it3 t3e =nite< States. T3e fact is t3at
4as3in-ton 3ol<s all t3e car<s. +eneEuelaMs economy is in a free!fall> Ma<uroMs $o$ularity is
$lummetin-> an< various $ublic scan<als ! es$ecially t3ose relate< to institutional corru$tion !
coul< furt3er ero<e $ublic confi<ence in t3e current -overnment. 7y resettin- relations &it3 t3e
Ma<uro -overnment no&> t3e =nite< States ris?s le-itimiEin- t3e C3aveE $rotQ-QMs ill!-otten
3ol< on $o&er an< un<ercuttin- t3e +eneEuelan <emocratic o$$osition efforts to sustain an<
ex$an< its $o$ular su$$ort. 0tMs time t3e Jbama a<ministration ret3in? t3is 3asty reset &it3
Ma<uro.
3AC Solvency: A>t - ?3 @Conditioning f ailsA B3>3C 98
1$ -!e only 'ay to increase trans)arency and security in FeneGuela is to tie
assistance to democratic guarantees from t!e ne' government#
*O+,*-S A.D /A0S,*" 11
Tra<e an< 2conomics at T3e erita-e 1oun<ationA an< 6ay> :3,.> Senior :olicy Analyst for
Batin America at erita-e 1oun<ationA #T3e a-el> Cerry> an< 7rennan Senate Confirmation
earin-s: =.S. :olicy for t3e 4estern emis$3ere>' 1/1.>
3tt$://&&&.3erita-e.or-/researc3/re$orts/2D1*/D1/?erry!3a-el!an<!brennan!senate!
confirmation!3earin-s!us!$olicy!for!t3e!&estern!3emis$3ere)
0n +eneEuela> :resi<ent u-o C3aveE5s inca$acity or <eat3 &ill force a ne& $resi<ential election.
0t must be free an< fair. T3e =.S. also nee<s to be resourceful in su$$ortin- civil society> non!
-overnmental or-aniEations> an< ot3ers in +eneEuela &3o attem$t to safe-uar< in<ivi<ual
ri-3ts> $reserve me<ia free<om> an< <eman< accountability an< trans$arency. T3e <is$atc3 of a
ne& =.S. ambassa<or s3oul< be un<erta?en only &it3 firm assurances from +eneEuela5s
lea<ers3i$ t3at it is rea<y to coo$erate in combatin- <ru- traffic?in- an< terrorism an< in
su$$ortin- an en< to insur-ent!criminal conflict in Colombia. 1inally> as 0ran5s most active ally
in t3e Americas> +eneEuela5s be3avior must be closely scrutiniEe< in accor<ance &it3 t3e
recently enacte< Counterin- 0ran in 4estern emis$3ere Act.
3AC Solvency: A>t - ?1 @Democracy 4romotion =ailsA B1> 1 C 2<
-!ey say t!at t!e (#S# cannot create a democracy from outside a country"
&ut # # #
1$ -!e (SA6D is effective at using assistance to furt!er democratic
movements" lie t!e one t!at exists in FeneGuela# ,xtend our 1AC SCO--
A.D S-,,0, evidence#
3$ Dedicating ne' funding to democratic )rotections and election security
solves anti-Americanism in FeneGuela" and )revents totalitarianism#
/A0S,*" 13
(6ay> :3,.> Senior :olicy Analyst for Batin AmericaA #T3e C3TveE :lan to Steal +eneEuelaMs
:resi<ential 2lection: 43at Jbama S3oul< ,o>' DL/1L>
3tt$://&&&.3erita-e.or-/researc3/re$orts/2D12/DL/t3e!c3aveE!$lan!to!steal!veneEuelas!
$resi<ential!election!&3at!obama!s3oul<!<o/)
Jctober ; an< t3e +eneEuelan $resi<ential elections re$resent a strate-ic crossroa<s in Batin
America. =.S. interests an< values stan< in clear o$$osition to c3avismo an< t3e -ro&in- blen<
of aut3oritarianism> criminality> an< anti!Americanism t3at see?s a $ermanent foot3ol< in
+eneEuela. T3e only soun< $olicy o$tion for t3e =.S. is one t3at fully su$$orts <emocracy an<
stan<s in o$$osition to t3e marc3 to&ar< a $o$ulist <ictators3i$ in +eneEuela. 6i-3t no&> t3e
Jbama A<ministration can still focus =.S. an< international attention on t3e +eneEuelan
electoral $rocess> es$ecially its lac? of fairness an< trans$arency. T3e A<ministration s3oul<
$rotect an< <efen< t3e ability of +eneEuelans to cast t3eir ballots &it3out 3in<rance> in secrecy
an< &it3out fear of re$risals. 0t s3oul< exercise all $ossible vi-ilance to monitor an<> if
necessary> vali<ate claims of frau<. To <efen< <emocracy in +eneEuela &3ile a<vancin- =.S.
interests an< values> t3e Jbama A<ministration s3oul<: Su$$ort +eneEuelan civil society.
,es$ite restrictive +eneEuelan la&s> t3e =.S. s3oul< increase its <emocracy assistance to civil
society an< %9Js by &or?in- to train <omestic electoral observers> ur-e voter $artici$ation>
coor<inate collection an< tabulation of votin- results> an< encoura-in- all $ollin- stations to
re$ort electoral infractions to t3e C%2 an< t3e M=,. Con<uct systematic $ublic <i$lomacy.
T3e A<ministration s3oul< $re$are a $ublic <i$lomacy brief examinin- t3e erosion of
<emocracy an< t3e unfair a<vanta-es accumulate< by C3TveE. 0t s3oul< re$ort t3e fact t3at
electoral con<itions are far from fair. 6eaffirm $rinci$les of <emocracy. :resi<ent Jbama an<
Secretary Clinton s3oul< s$ea? out on <emocratic $rinci$les an< t3e commitment to full
<emocracy> not merely 3ol<in- elections> in t3e Americas> 3i-3li-3tin- &3at is at sta?e in
+eneEuela> ur-in- citiEen $artici$ation an< trans$arency> an< 3ol<in- C3TveE accountable for
t3e $reservation of $eace. . . .
[Evidence continues next page]
3AC Solvency: A>t - ?1 @Democracy 4romotion =ailsA B3> 1 C 87
[WALSER 12 evidence continues]
monitor t3e situation in +eneEuela on Jctober ; for evi<ence of incitement to violence by
$olitical $arties> 3arassment of or 3arm to o$$osition fi-ures> re$risals a-ainst voters>
<istribution of arms to militias> an< increases in $olitically!relate< violence. 2stablis3 a
coalition for +eneEuelan <emocracy. T3e =.S. s3oul< em$loy active <i$lomacy to establis3 a
coalition of <emocratic lea<ersKone t3at coul< certainly inclu<e Cana<a> Costa 6ica> :anama>
C3ile> S$ain> t3e =nite< Cin-<om> an< ot3ersKto act in unison in case of frau< or violence.
Continue su$$ort for <emocracy. Alt3ou-3 t3e <efeat of Ca$riles &oul< clearly <emoraliEe many
+eneEuelans> t3e =.S. must nonet3eless continue to offer sustaine< su$$ort for civil society> a
free $ress> free labor unions> an< ot3er voices for liberty an< $reserve t3e resilience of a unifie<
o$$osition for future elections. A$$oint a 3i-3!level Cuba/+eneEuela Mission ,irector. T3e
$osition of Cuba/+eneEuela Mission ,irector in t3e Jffice of t3e %ational 0ntelli-ence ,irector
s3oul< be fille< &it3 a senior!level official &it3 res$onsibility for all AB7A countries. ,evelo$
an a--ressive> $roactive $lan of action. Jctober . &ill mar? t3e startin- $oint for one of t&o
courses: eit3er one of sustaine< coo$eration an< su$$ort for t3e restoration of <emocracy in
+eneEuela or one of tou-3> $roactive res$onses to C3TveE5s $romise< ra<icaliEation. :otential
$olicy tools for levera-e inclu<e visa <enials> furt3er Treasury <esi-nations of corru$t
+eneEuelan officials> financial an< tra<e sanctions> inter<iction of +eneEuelan vessels an<
aircraft use< to trans$ort <ru-s> t3e <esi-nation of +eneEuela as a state s$onsor of terrorism>
an< an embar-o on t3e $urc3ase of +eneEuelan oil. All of t3ese tools s3oul< be consi<ere< in t3e
event of electoral frau<> si-nificant electoral violence> or 3ostile acts contrary to =.S. security
interests. Conclusion u-o C3TveE is by nature a <ema-o-ic $o$ulist> nationalist> an< military!
min<e< lea<er &3o believes t3at 3istory 3as assi-ne< 3im a mission to convert a re$resentative
<emocracy an< free!mar?et economy into a one!$arty> aut3oritarian> socialist state. is -oal is
to crus3 t3e o$$osition &it3 a &inner!ta?e!all a$$roac3. 0f t3e $eo$le of +eneEuela reIect t3is
somber $lan for t3e future an< vote to return t3e country to a more <emocratic course> it is vital
t3at t3e =.S. stan< as a lea<er in su$$ort of a transition to <emocracy> rule of la&> an< economic
an< $ersonal liberty. 0f C3TveE $revails> as 3e is confi<ent 3e &ill> t3e =.S. nee<s to $re$are for
t3e increasin-ly <an-erous conseGuences of a ra<icaliEe<> <es$otic> anti!American lea<er &it3
six more years to ma?e t3e 7olivarian 6evolution an< socialism of t3e 21st!century irreversible.
3AC Solvency: A>t - ?1 @Democracy 4romotion =ailsA B 1 > 1 C 81
1$ ,ven if ot!er forms of aid fail" tying economic aid to democracy
)romotion 'ors#
SCO-- A.D S-,,0," 11
(@ames> $rofessor at J?la3oma State =niversityA an< Carie> $rofessor at =niversity of 0llinois>
#S$onsorin- ,emocracy: T3e =nite< States an< ,emocracy Ai< to t3e ,evelo$in- 4orl<> 1L..F
2DD1>' 0nternational Stu<ies Puarterly (2D11)>
3tt$://&&&.uc<c.e<u/sites/<efault/files/u$loa<s/<ocuments/Aca<emic/Courses/+12S7/<emo
statistical.$<f)
Can <emocratic s$onsor states suc3 as t3e =nite< States $romote <emocracy t3rou-3 forei-n
assistanceR Jur analysis su$$orts t&o im$ortant conclusions: (i) <emocracy ai< 3as a $ositive
im$act on <emocratiEation even &3en controllin- for t3e effect of <emocratiEation on ai<
allocation <ecisions A (ii) <emocracy ai< 3as a $ositive im$act on <emocratiEation> &3ile -eneral
forei-n economic ai< <oes not. %ot only <o &e fin< em$irical su$$ort for t3e 3y$ot3esiEe<
lin?a-e bet&een <emocracy ai< an< <emocratiEation since t3e en< of t3e Col< 4ar> but t3is
em$irical evi<ence is consistent &it3 an< len<s su$$ort to a t3eoretical mo<el articulatin- t3e
mec3anisms connectin- suc3 tar-ete< <emocracy ai< to $ro-ress in <emocratiEation> &3ile
<ifferentiatin- suc3 assistance from ot3er forms of ai<. 0n a suite of em$irical tests> tar-ete<>
<emocracy!s$ecific ai< $roIects to t3e <evelo$in- &orl< &ere consistently an< systematically
relate< to better <emocracy scores> &3ile ot3er forms of =S ai< &ere statistically an< _ or
substantively insi-nificant.
3AC Solvency: A>t - ?4 @,lections Aren%t ,noug!A 83
-!ey say t!at FeneGuelan institutions need to &e reformed first" &ut # # #
1$ (#S# economic )ressure on elections in FeneGuela solves insta&ility from
C!aveG%s deat!#
/A0S,* A.D D(C5,*MA." 11
Jn Tues<ay> cancer claime< t3e life of +eneEuela5s :resi<ent u-o C3aveE> silencin- one of
Batin America5s most controversial lea<ers in t3e 21st century. C3aveE5s <eat3 o$ens t3e &ay to
an uncertain succession $rocess> continue< $olariEation> an< $otential instability in oil!ric3
+eneEuela. ,ealin- &it3 a $ost!C3aveE +eneEuela &ill reGuire an on-oin- =.S. commitment to
free an< fair $resi<ential elections> to t3e <efense of in<ivi<ual ri-3ts an< liberties> an< to
levera-in- future im$rovements in bilateral relations to -enuine coo$eration in t3e fi-3t a-ainst
transnational crime an< terrorism. 4or?in- &it3 +eneEuela for a more stable an< secure
3emis$3eric ener-y mar?et is also a <esire<> if still <istant> obIective.
3$ ,ngaging no' creates s)illovers to ot!er areas of coo)eration# ,ven if
t!ere are ot!er issues to overcome" t!e )lan creates a frame'or for larger
engagement 'it! FeneGuela#
HA*FA*D C*6MSO." 11
1or bot3 <i$lomatic an< economic reasons> t3en> $ositive en-a-ement is t3e best course of
action for t3e =nite< States. As it stan<s> t3e ne-ative relations3i$ bet&een t3e countries 3as
create< an atmos$3ere of animosity in t3e 3emis$3ere> 3in<erin- <ialo-ue an< ma?in-
economic coo$eration nearly im$ossible. 43ile t3ere is muc3 for &3ic3 t3e +eneEuelan
-overnment can ri-3tly be criticiEe<Kaut3oritarian rule> abuse of 3uman ri-3ts> lac? of mar?et!
frien<ly $oliciesKnot3in- t3at t3e =nite< States is <oin- to counter t3ose <ra&bac?s is 3avin-
any effect. T3e =nite< States s3oul< sto$ $layin- #tou-3 -uy' &it3 +eneEuela> bite t3e bullet>
an< &or? to&ar< stability an< $ros$erity for t3e entire 3emis$3ere. 4e aren5t catc3in- any flies
&it3 our vine-arKit5s 3i-3 time &e starte< tryin- to catc3 t3em &it3 3oney.
6ran Add-On : A>t - ?1 @Advantage ContradictsA B1>3C 81
-!ey say t!at t!e add-on contradicts t!e 1AC !arms &ecause t!e add-on
assumes t!at FeneGuela !as money enoug! to &egin a nuclear )rogram"
&ut # # #
1$ Our advantages do not contradict# FeneGuela%s government !as funds to
&egin a nuclear relations!i) 'it! 6ran &ecause it is corru)t and drains
limited resources from t!e &roader economy#
3$ .uclear )rograms aren%t restricted to 'ealt!y nations H .ort! 5orea and
4aistan are )oor nations" &ut &ot! !ave nuclear 'ea)ons )rograms#
1$ -!e FeneGuelan government )artners 'it! drug trafficers" giving t!em
access to illicit funds#
/A0S,*" 17
0n t3e same mont3> t3e =.S. 9overnment Accountability Jffice (9AJ) <etaile< t3e $reci$itous
<ecline in =.S.!+eneEuelan counter!<ru- coo$eration &3ile <ocumentin- t3e stea<y rise in t3e
Guantity of cocaine transitin- +eneEuela. 0t is estimate< t3at t3e amount of cocaine transitin-
+eneEuela rose from 5D metric tons (MT) in 2DD* to 25D MT in 2DD.. Jverall> nearly one!t3ir<
of all t3e cocaine $ro<uce< in t3e An<ean re-ion $asses t3rou-3 +eneEuela. As recently as
%ovember 1.> 2DDL> a senior State ,e$artment official reaffirme< 3is concern about Nincreasin-
inci<encesN of cocaine fli-3ts $assin- t3rou-3 or over +eneEuela. T3is non!coo$eration &it3 t3e
=.S. an< te$i< coo$eration &it3 ot3er reco-niEe< la& enforcement aut3orities $resents a serious
c3allen-e to international counter!narcotics enforcement. 1res3 routes for cocaine traffic?in-
$ass from Colombia t3rou-3 +eneEuela to t3e Caribbean> es$ecially to t3e ,ominican 6e$ublic
an< &ea? aiti> &3ile ot3er routes run to&ar< 4est Africa an< t3en into 2uro$e. T3e -ro&in-
cross!Atlantic tra<e is also a lucrative tar-et for ra<ical 0slamist -rou$s. 9iven t3e increasin-
levels of corru$tion in +eneEuela an< t3e <isa$$earance of trans$arency an< accountability>
$rofits from t3e <ru- tra<e can also more easily fin< t3eir &ay to t3e $oc?ets of +eneEuelan
officials or be <iverte< to criminal or terrorist -rou$s.
6ran Add-On: A>t - ?1 @Advantage ContradictsA B3>3C 84
1$ FeneGuela is ena&ling and su))orting rogue nuclear 'ea)ons )rograms
in 6ran and *ussia" causing !idden )roliferation#
/A0S,*" 17
T3e =.S. is ri-3tfully &orrie< about increasin- nuclear coo$eration bet&een C3TveE an<
A3ma<ineIa<> an< t3e nature of t3e coo$eration is s3rou<e< in <ee$ secrecy.(82) Jn Se$tember
2/> 2DDL> for exam$le> +eneEuelaMs Minister of 0n<ustries an< Mines 6o<olfo SanE confirme<
t3at 0ran &as assistin- +eneEuelaMs efforts to ma$ an< analyEe $otential uranium <e$osits.(8*)
4it3in 3ours> Caracas <enie< t3e statement. C3TveE turne< <efensive> Io?e< about &or?in- &it3
0ran to <evelo$ Nan atomic bicycle>N an< claime< +eneEuela 3as no intention of see?in- t3e
acGuisition of a nuclear &ea$on.(8/) +eneEuela 3as initiate< t3e first sta-es of a nuclear
$ro-ram an< si-ne< a nuclear coo$eration a-reement &it3 6ussia> an< 3as $resumably be-un
coo$eratin- &it3 0ran on nuclear matters. C3TveE claims oil!ric3 +eneEuela nee<s a $eaceful
nuclear $ro-ram but 3arbors no intention of $ursuin- a nuclear &ea$ons $ro-ram. 43ile t3ere
is -eneral a-reement t3at a &ea? scientific base an< resource limits im$ose< by t3e +eneEuelan
economy &ill slo& +eneEuelaMs nuclear $ro-ram an< t3at a full!fle<-e< nuclear &ea$ons
$ro-ram is still many years a&ay> fe& <oubt t3at t3e nuclear ambitions C3TveE entertains are
lin?e< &it3 3is <esire to $roIect $o&er &ell beyon< +eneEuelaMs frontiers an< 3is rea<iness to
su$$ort 0ran even at t3e ris? of clas3es &it3 t3e =.S.(85) +eneEuelaMs essential utility for 0ran is
its ability to serve as a front for t3e 0ranian Ministry of ,efense an< its Arme< 1orces Bo-istics
an< for any ot3er state com$anies &or?in- to a<vance 0ranMs &ea$ons $ro-rams> bot3 nuclear
an< non!nuclear. T3e ex$ansion of 0ranian financial institutions into +eneEuela an<
surroun<in- countries offers a case in $oint. T3e =.S. 3as alrea<y i<entifie< 0ranMs 2x$ort
,evelo$ment 7an? an< its affiliate in Caracas as a tool of t3e 0ranian re-ime.(88) T3e $roIect for
a Ioint!<evelo$ment ban? remains $art of t3e bilateral $ro-ram of coo$eration. +eneEuela &as
also <etecte< assistin- 0ran to re!ex$ort 0ranian!ma<e arms in 2DD; &3en it facilitate< a
s3i$ment of 0ranian &ea$ons to =ru-uay> <is-uisin- t3e &ea$onsM ori-in.(8;) A-ents of 0ran
o$eratin- in t3e less constrictive environment of t3e 4estern emis$3ere can also use fictitious
com$anies to acGuire aircraft $arts an< <ual!use tec3nolo-y> an< -enerally eva<e =.S. ex$ort!
licensin- restrictions an< munitions control.
6ran Add-On : A>t - ?3 @.o More -ies to 6ranA B1>3C 85
-!ey say t!at 6ran ties 'it! FeneGuela 'ere )ersonal to C!aveG" &ut # # #
1$ 6ran and FeneGuela are 'oring closely toget!er to fig!t America" and
6ran may use FeneGuela to snea 'ea)ons in for a terrorist attac against
t!e (#S# ,xtend our /A0S,* A.D 4H60064S evidence#
3$ -!e ne' regime is still anti-American" creating false accusations a&out
meddling and cons)iracy#
S(006FA." 11
ostility to&ar< t3e =nite< States &as often use< by t3e C3TveE -overnment as a &ay to s3ore
u$ su$$ort <urin- elections> an< it a$$ears t3at t3is is bein- em$loye< by t3e :S=+ once a-ain
in t3e current $resi<ential cam$ai-n. Jn Marc3 2D> 2D1*> 1orei-n Minister 2lias @aua sai< t3at
+eneEuelan officials &oul< no lon-er be tal?in- about im$rovin- =.S.!+eneEuelan relations &it3
Assistant Secretary of State @acobson because of comments t3at @acobson 3a< ma<e in a
S$anis3 ne&s$a$erA @acobson 3a< sai< t3at #+eneEuelans <eserve o$en> fair an< trans$arent
elections.' A senior =.S. official re$orte<ly sai< t3at suc3 biEarre accusations an< be3avior
raises <oubts over &3et3er bilateral relations &ill be able to be im$rove< &it3 a Ma<uro
-overnment. Anot3er stran-e accusation by Ma<uro is t3at t&o former =.S. State ,e$artment
officials &ere $lottin- to ?ill Ca$riles an< to blame it on t3e Ma<uro -overnmentA t3e State
,e$artment stron-ly reIecte< t3e #alle-ations of =.S. -overnment involvement to 3arm anyone
in +eneEuela.' Boo?in- a3ea<> some observers conten< t3at anti!Americanism coul< also be a
means for :S=+ lea<ers to mas? internal $roblems &it3in C3avismo> an< even coul< be utiliEe<
as a $otential ne& :S=+ -overnment le< by Ma<uro <eals &it3 a <eterioratin- economy.
6ran Add-On : A>t - ?3 @.o More -ies to 6ranA B3>3C 82
1$ Maduro 'as !and-)iced &y C!aveG and is continuing t!e old anti-
Americanism#
HA*FA*D C*6MSO." 11
43ile it mi-3t seem li?ely t3at relations bet&een t3e =nite< States an< +eneEuela &oul<
naturally im$rove after t3e <eat3 of t3e combative C3TveE> t3e o$$osite no& seems more li?ely.
7efore $assin- a&ay> C3TveE 3a< 3an<$ic?e< a successor in %ic3olas Ma<uro> &3o 3as assume<
$o&er in t3e interim before t3e $resi<ential election in A$ril. As C3TveE5s 3an<$ic?e< successor>
Ma<uro 3as alrea<y continue< &it3 3is mentor5s tren< of usin- anti!American r3etoric to brin-
$o$ularity to 3is -overnment> even <eclarin- t3at American a-ents may 3ave infecte< C3TveE
&it3 t3e cancer t3at ?ille< 3im. 43ile 4as3in-ton 3as officially <eclare< t3at it is committe< to
a more functional relations3i$ &it3 +eneEuela> its actions 3ave not been consistent &it3 t3is
i<ea: T3e =nite< States offere< no official con<olences for C3TveE5s <eat3> an< bot3 nations
3ave starte< ex$ellin- <i$lomats from t3e ot3er. %eit3er nation> it seems> is steerin- to&ar<
more con-enial relations &it3 t3e ot3er.
4$ Current (#S# )olicy is encouraging FeneGuela to maintain t!e same anti-
American )olicies as under C!aveG#
HA*FA*D C*6MSO." 11
A<mitte<ly> t3e =nite< States 3as -oo< reason to be less t3an ent3use< about more C3TveE!style
-overnance in +eneEuela. Callin- 3imself a 21st!century socialist> C3TveE nationaliEe< t3e
lucrative oil in<ustry> <evelo$e< stron- tra<e an< <i$lomatic relations3i$s &it3 0ran an< Cuba>
re$eate<ly <ecrie< t3e =nite< States as an im$erialist force> an< coo$erate< &it3 t3e 0ranians in
<evelo$in- nuclear tec3nolo-y. 2n-a-in- in $etty <i$lomat!ex$ulsion s$ats> 3o&ever> is no &ay
to <eal &it3 any of t3ese $roblems> an< it in fact only stren-t3ens t3e C3avistas5 3ol< on t3eir
country. T3e <i$lomatic an< economic o$$ortunities t3at &oul< stem from -reater en-a-ement
&oul< far out&ei-3 t3e mea-er benefits rea$e< from our current $olicies.
6ran Add-On : A>t - ?1 @6ran is 4eacefulA B1>3C 88
-!ey say t!at 6ran !as agreed to strict monitoring of its nuclear )rogram"
&ut # # #
1$ 6ran is using FeneGuela to !ide its nuclear 'ea)ons )rogram so t!at it
can a))ear )eaceful to t!e outside 'orld '!ile still develo)ing 'ea)ons and
terrorist connections# ,xtend our 1AC .O*6,;A evidence#
3$ Close ties to FeneGuela are necessary for 6ran to generate revenue to
continue su))orting terrorism and develo)ing nuclear 'ea)ons#
/A0S,* A.D 4H60064S" 13
(6ay> :3,.> Senior :olicy Analyst for Batin AmericaA an< @ames> Senior 6esearc3 1ello& for
Mi<<le 2astern Affairs in t3e ,ou-las an< Sara3 Allison Center for 1orei-n :olicy Stu<iesA #0ran
Moves 4est: A3ma<ineIa<Ms 2D12 Batin American +isit>' 1/D8>
3tt$://&&&.3erita-e.or-/researc3/re$orts/2D12/D1/iran!$resi<ent!a3ma<ineIa<s!latin!
american!visit/)
43at <oes 0ran see? in t3e AmericasR 0t <esires <i$lomatic cover an< international su$$ort
a-ainst t3e =.S. an< 4estern 2uro$e> &3ic3 are im$osin- increasin-ly tou-3er sanctions. 0ran
&ants commercial an< economic outlets for its limite< ran-e of ex$orts an< sources of secure
su$$ly for its <omestic mar?et. 0ran also <esires a set of frien<s &3o are &illin- to buc? t3e =.S
an< ai< t3e 0ranian Central 7an? an< state enter$rises in t3eir efforts to con<uct sales an<
tec3nolo-y transfers t3at minimiEe t3e bite of sanctions. 1rom a -eostrate-ic $oint of vie&> 0ran
li?ely vie&s Batin America as a $otential $latform for con<uctin- asymmetric &arfare or
<isru$tive terrorism in t3e event of a conflict over free $assa-e in t3e Strait of ormuE or a
stri?e a-ainst 0ran5s acceleratin- nuclear &ea$ons $ro-ram by 0srael or t3e =.S. 0ran also
collu<es &it3 forei-n terrorist or-aniEations> $articularly eEbolla3> t3e ra<ical Bebanese S3iite
terrorist or-aniEation t3at 3as establis3e< <ee$ roots &it3in t3e Bebanese <ias$ora in Sout3 an<
Central America. eEbolla3 3as enric3e< itself t3rou-3 involvement &it3 Sout3 America5s
cocaine tra<e to fun< its activities aroun< t3e &orl<. 1inally> +eneEuela an< ot3ers (notably
7olivia) are $ositione< to $rovi<e 0ran &it3 lon-!term access to strate-ic materials li?e uranium>
&3ic3 is reGuire< for furt3er <evelo$ment of a nuclear &ea$ons $ro-ram.
6ran Add-On : A>t - ?1 @6ran is 4eacefulA B3>3C 89
1$ FeneGuelan anti-Americanism is allo'ing 6ranian terrorist grou)s to
t!rive#
/A0S,*" 17
More recently> eEbolla3 seems to be fin<in- convenient o$eratin- s$ace in +eneEuela. u-o
C3aveE5s> +eneEuela5s fiery> anti!American $resi<ent> recently 3oste< Syrian :resi<ent afeE al!
Assa<. Syria5s <ee$ involvement in Bebanon> its bor<er <is$utes &it3 0srael an< its bac?in- of
eEbolla3 are of lon-!stan<in-. 0n Caracas> C3aveE an< Assa< reaffirme< a unite< front a-ainst
common enemies: t3e =.S. an< 0srael. ,oubtless> fin<in- &ays to a<vance eEbolla35s $o&er
an< influence &it3out bein- cau-3t &as a to$ic of $rivate conversation as &ell. Caracas is a 3ub
for international anti!American activity an< re-ular air fli-3ts lin? +eneEuela &it3 Syria an<
0ran. +eneEuela is also becomin- a 3ub for international <ru- traffic?ers> &it3 s3i$ments to
2uro$e an< 4est Africa risin- <ramatically. T3e latter mar?et is es$ecially &orrisome> as t3e
narcotics tra<e is <estabiliEin- 4est Africa> 3el$in- ma?e it a tar-et of o$$ortunity for 0slamic
extremists.
4$ 6ran is still actively su))orting terrorism and needs FeneGuelan
assistance#
/A0S,*" 17
0ran remaine< t3e most active state s$onsor of terrorism. 0ranMs involvement in t3e $lannin-
an< financial su$$ort of terrorist attac?s t3rou-3out t3e Mi<<le 2ast> 2uro$e> an< Central Asia
3a< a <irect im$act on international efforts to $romote $eace> t3reatene< economic stability in
t3e 9ulf> an< un<ermine< t3e -ro&t3 of <emocracy. T3e Po<s 1orce> an elite branc3 of t3e
0slamic 6evolutionary 9uar< Cor$s (069C)> is t3e re-imeMs $rimary mec3anism for cultivatin-
an< su$$ortin- terrorists abroa<. T3e Po<s 1orce $rovi<e< ai< in t3e form of &ea$ons> trainin->
an< fun<in- to amas an< ot3er :alestinian terrorist -rou$s> Bebanese eEbolla3> 0raG!base<
militants> an< Taliban fi-3ters in Af-3anistan. As t3e =.S. an< t3e &orl< 3ave become
increasin-ly &ary of 0ranMs nuclear &ea$ons ambitions> its su$$ort for terrorism> an< its
re$ression of its o&n $eo$le> C3TveE 3as &or?e< overtime to ma?e Te3ran 3is closest
international $artner.
CDL Core Files 2013/14 .!de+
0#1
FeneGuela Democracy .egative 8<
1%C 1rontline: arms .................................................................................................................. .D
2%C 2xtension arms ! "1 #2lections are 1air'............................................................................2
2%C 2xtension arms ! "2 #,emocracy turn' (1/2).....................................................................*
2%C 2xtension arms ! "* #2m$irically ,enie<'.........................................................................5
1%C 1rontline: Solvency................................................................................................................ .8
2%C 2xtension Solvency ! "1 #Anti!,emocracy 7ac?las3'.............................................................
2%C 2xtension Solvency ! "2 #Con<itionin- 1ails'.......................................................................L
2%C 2xtension Solvency ! "* #,emocracy $romotion fails'........................................................LD
2%C 2xtension Solvency ! "/ #2lections aren5t enou-3' (1/2)......................................................L1
0ran A<<!Jn 6es$onses................................................................................................................ L*
CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 10C >ar)s Fro!tli!e
0#1
1.C =rontline: Harms B1>3C 97
1$ FeneGuelan elections are already fair and democratic#
CA*0S,." 11
(Baura> <irector of t3e Americas :ro-ram for t3e Center for 0nternational :olicy in Mexico City.A
#=.S. 2fforts to 7loc? ,emocracy in +eneEuela arm emis$3eric 6elations>' 5/D2>
3tt$://&&&.f$if.or-/articles/usZeffortsZtoZbloc?Z<emocracyZinZveneEuelaZ3armZrelationsZi
nZt3eZ3emis$3ere)
T3e +eneEuelan electoral system is 3i-3ly tam$er!$roof> as reco-niEe< by monitorin-
or-aniEations li?e t3e Carter Center> &3ic3 before t3e vote assesse< t3e system as #t3e best in
t3e &orl<.' ,ele-ations from t3e Carter Center> t3e =nion of Sout3 American Countries> an<
ot3er ex$erts observe< t3e elections an< $roclaime< t3em clean an< fair. +eneEuelans vote
electronically> t3en $rint out an< <ouble!c3ec? a $a$er ballot before <e$ositin- it as &ell. T3e
2lectoral Council carries out an au<it at $olls of 5/.* $ercent of t3e votes. T3ese revie&s are
si-ne< by members of t3e $olitical $arties> inclu<in- Ca$riles5 ,emocratic =nity :arty.
3$ -urn: (#S# attem)ting to force democratic reforms on FeneGuela 'ill
cause regional &aclas!#
CA*0S,." 11
nZt3eZ3emis$3ere)
Ca$riles5 actions an< <e facto =.S. su$$ort for $rolon-in- $ost!electoral unrest not only
en<an-er $eace an< stability in +eneEuela> but also $otentially t3e entire re-ion. +eneEuela is a
-eo$olitical 3ubKfor its oil> for its role in buil<in- sout3!sout3 inte-ration $roIects li?e AB7A
an< =nasur> for its soli<arity tra<e $acts> an< for its <efiance of =.S. 3e-emony. To ille-ally
<isru$t t3e constitutional or<er t3ere &ill not be as easy as it &as in on<uras> &3ere even a
broa< o$$osition movement coul<n5t restore t3e constitutionally electe< $resi<ent after a ri-3t!
&in- cou$ in 2DDL. 0nevitably> nations across t3e 3emis$3ere an< t3e &orl< &ill react &it3
an-er if t3e Jbama a<ministration <eci<es to maintain t3is course> bot3 in <efense of t3eir
nei-3bor +eneEuela an< also in &3at t3ey see as a t3reat to t3eir o&n soverei-nty. Alrea<y
former 7raEilian $resi<ent Bula <a Silva 3as &arne< t3at NAmericans s3oul< ta?e care of t3eir
o&n business a little an< let us <eci<e our o&n <estiny.N T3e lon-er t3e =nite< States remains
-lobally isolate< in its refusal to acce$t +eneEuela5s election results> t3e lon-er t3e instability>
uncertainty> an< violence &ill continue. 2xten<in- t3e conflict coul< very &ell en< u$
unnecessarily costin- more lives.
CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 10C >ar)s Fro!tli!e
0#1
1.C =rontline: Harms B3>3C 91
1$ ,m)irically denied: -!e Cold /ar em)irically )roves democracy
)romotion isn%t an essential )art of (#S# foreign )olicy#
0A*6SO." 11
(,aniel> :3,.> contributin- e<itor at T3e American ConservativeA #Jn ,emocracy :romotion
an< t3e 1ailure of t3e #1ree<om A-en<a'>' D1/22>
3tt$://&&&.t3eamericanconservative.com/larison/on!<emocracy!$romotion!an<!t3e!failure!
of!t3e!free<om!a-en<a/)
T3is is t3e sort of ar-ument for <emocracy $romotion t3at ma?es me so o$$ose< to t3e i<ea.
,emocracy $romotion isn5t a necessary or intrinsic $art of bein- American> an< it certainly isn5t
t3e #only &ay' our forei-n $olicy can ma?e sense. T3e =.S. 3asn5t faile< to su$$ort <emocrats
#from time to time.' 1or most of =.S. 3istory> t3e =.S. -overnment <i<n5t $romote <emocracy>
an< <urin- t3e Col< 4ar in $articular t3e -overnment sometimes o$$ose< an< occasionally
even &or?e< to <e$ose $o$ular an< electe< -overnments. T3ose &eren5t occasional exce$tions
to a -eneral rule of $romotin- <emocracy. ,emocracy $romotion became a $riority for t3e =.S.
-overnment only in t3e last fe& <eca<es> an< even t3en it 3as been very selective an< uneven in
its im$lementation. T3ere is not3in- natural or innate about it. Maybe t3at <oesn5t matter> but
one of t3e reasons t3at s?e$tics of <emocracy $romotion are so resistant to t3e i<ea is t3at its
a<vocates $resent it as if it &ere t3e normal <efault of =.S. forei-n $olicy &3en it 3as been
anyt3in- but t3at. ,emocratists $resent t3eir a-en<a as if it &ere inte-ral to our i<entity as a
$eo$le> but it isn5t an< 3as never been t3at.
0#1
3.C ,xtension Harms - ?1 @,lections are =airA 93
Off of 1.C ?1 @,lections are currently fair"A grou) t!e 3AC res)onses#
1$ FeneGuelan elections !ave already &een certified as trans)arent and
o)en" and t!e )rocess assures a fair outcome# -!ere is no ris no' of
democracy colla)sing" c!ecs are in )lace# ,xtend our CA*0S,. evidence#
3$ FeneGuelan elections are already 'ell monitored and fair#
5OFA065" 11
(,an> uman an< labor ri-3ts la&yerA #=.S. Must 6eco-niEe +eneEuelaMs 2lections>' D//1.>
3tt$://&&&.3uffin-ton$ost.com/<an!?ovali?/us!must!reco-niEe!veneEuelaZbZ*1D*5/D.3tml)
0 Iust returne< from +eneEuela &3ere 0 &as one of over 1;D international election observers
from aroun< t3e &orl<> inclu<in- 0n<ia> 9uyana> Suriname> Colombia> 7olivia> %icara-ua>
Scotlan<> 2n-lan<> t3e =nite< States> 9uatemala> Ar-entina> Sout3 Corea> Sri Ban?a> 2t3io$ia>
@amaica> 7raEil> C3ile> 9reece> 1rance> :anama an< Mexico. T3ese observers inclu<e< t&o
former $resi<ents (of 9uatemala an< t3e ,ominican 6e$ublic)> Iu<-es> la&yers an< numerous
3i-3 ran?in- officials of national electoral councils. 43at &e foun< &as an election system
&3ic3 &as trans$arent> in3erently reliable> &ell!run an< t3orou-3ly au<ite<.
0#1
3.C ,xtension Harms - ?3 @Democracy turnA B 1 >3C 91
Off of t!e 1.C ?3 @-urn H regional &aclas!"A grou) t!e 3AC res)onses#
1$ +y attem)ting to force democracy on anot!er country" t!e )lan 'ill anger
allies and mae t!e (#S# loo !y)ocritical to t!e rest of t!e 'orld# -!is
maes our model loo 'ea" and decreases democratic credi&ility
every'!ere# A))ly t!e CA*0S,. evidence#
3$ -!e affirmative evidence refers to a current &aclas! &y t!e )ro-
democracy movement in FeneGuela" &ut t!ey don%t )rove t!is movement is
)o'erful enoug! to effect real c!ange# Our &aclas! evidence refers to t!e
actual governments in )o'er in t!e region#
1$ =urt!er Euestioning of FeneGuelan democracy causes more insta&ility
and t!e colla)se of government#
5OFA065" 11
(,an> uman an< labor ri-3ts la&yerA #=.S. Must 6eco-niEe +eneEuelaMs 2lections>' D//1.>
3tt$://&&&.3uffin-ton$ost.com/<an!?ovali?/us!must!reco-niEe!veneEuelaZbZ*1D*5/D.3tml)
An<> t3e =.S.Ms failure to reco-niEe t3e +eneEuelan elections is 3avin- <evastatin- conseGuences
in +eneEuela> for it is embol<enin- t3e +eneEuelan o$$osition to carry out violence in or<er to
<estabiliEe t3at country. =nli?e Al 9ore in 2DDD &3o ste$$e< asi<e for 9eor-e 4. 7us3 in t3e
interest of 3is country an< t3e =.S. Constitution> t3e +eneEuelan o$$osition> bein- le< by
enriGue Ca$riles> clearly &ants to foster c3aos an< crisis in +eneEuela in or<er to to$$le t3e
Ma<uro -overnment by force (Iust as t3e same forces re$resente< by Ca$riles forcibly
?i<na$$e< an< briefly overt3re& :resi<ent C3aveE> &it3 =.S. su$$ort> in 2DD2). T3us>
reasonably believin- itself to 3ave t3e bac?in- of t3e =.S. an< its military> t3e o$$osition is
causin- may3em in +eneEuela> inclu<in- burnin- <o&n clinics> <estroyin- $ro$erty> attac?in-
Cuban <octors an< <estroyin- rulin- $arty buil<in-s. 0n all> seven +eneEuelans are <ea< an<
<oEens inIure< in t3is o$$osition!le< violence. T3ere is no <oubt t3at t3e =.S. coul< 3alt t3is
violence ri-3t no& by reco-niEin- t3e results of t3e +eneEuelan elections> Iust as t3e nations of
t3e &orl< reco-niEe<> &it3out Guestion> t3e results of t3e elections &3ic3 $ut @o3n 1. Cenne<y
in $o&er in 1L8D an< 9eor-e 4. 7us3 in $o&er in 2DDD. T3e reason t3e =.S. is not <oin- so is
obvious: 0t <oes not li?e t3e +eneEuelansM c3osen form of -overnment> an< &elcomes t3at
-overnmentMs <emise> even t3rou-3 violence. T3e =.S.> t3erefore> is not su$$ortin- <emocracy
an< stability in +eneEuelaA it is intentionally un<erminin- it.
0#1
3.C ,xtension Harms - ?3 @Democracy turnA B3>3C 94
1$ -!e im)act is loss of (#S# credi&ility in democracy )romotion glo&ally#
CA*0S,." 11
nZt3eZ3emis$3ere)
T3e Jbama a<ministration s3oul< consi<er t3at its stubbornness about &3at it consi<ers an
a<verse election result in a forei-n country is a <irect cause of bloo<s3e<. 0t 3arms relations &it3
our 3emis$3eric nei-3bors an< $artners an< so&s t3e see<s of <istrust an< enmity in a re-ion
&3ere &e 3ave a -oo< c3ance at buil<in- coo$eration on issues of vital im$ortance to all of our
countries. +eneEuela5s elections must be acce$te< at once to s3o& t3at t3e =nite< States &ill
u$3ol< <emocratic $rocesses an< t3e rule of la&> even &3en its -overnment is not $articularly
$lease< &it3 t3e results.
0#1
3.C ,xtension Harms - ?1 @,m)irically DeniedA 95
Off of 1.C ?1 t!at democracy )romotion is em)irically not essential to (#S#
foreign )olicy" grou) t!e 3AC res)onses#
1$ (#S# foreign )olicy !as !istorically su))orted dictators and non-
democratic governments '!ile its influence !as &een strong glo&ally# -!is
)roves t!at democracy )romotion isn%t connected to (#S# influence and
credi&ility# ,xtend our 0A*6SO. evidence#
3$ Also" t!e 0A*6SO. evidence )roves t!at (#S# foreign )olicy doesn%t in any
essential 'ay include democracy )romotion# -!is )roves t!at t!e )lan
cannot solve &ecause t!e (#S# 'ill still &e seen as anti-democratic in ot!er
regions#
CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 10C Sol$e!cy Fro!tli!e
0#1
1.C =rontline: Solvency 92
1$ -urn: Democracy aid causes t!e FeneGuelan government to ado)t an
aggressive counter-democratic strategy#
.A-6O.A0 ,.DO/M,.- =O* D,MOC*AC:" 72
(A 6e$ort $re$are< by t3e %ational 2n<o&ment for ,emocracy for Senator 6ic3ar< 9. Bu-ar>
C3airman Committee on 1orei-n 6elations =nite< States SenateA #T3e 7ac?las3 A-ainst
,emocracy Assistance>' D8/D.> 3tt$://&&&.ne<.or-/<ocs/bac?las3D8.$<f)
1orei-n -overnments5 efforts to im$e<e <emocracy assistanceKfrom le-al constraints on %9Js
to extra!le-al forms of 3arassmentK3ave recently intensifie< an< no& seriously im$e<e
<emocracy assistance in a number of states. T3is bac?las3 is $articularly $ronounce< in t3e
former Soviet states of 2urasia> as &ell as in C3ina> +eneEuela> 2-y$t> an< Oimbab&e.
6e$resentatives of <emocracy assistance %9Js 3ave been 3arasse<> offices close<> an< staff
ex$elle<. 2ven more vulnerable are local -rantees an< $roIect $artners &3o 3ave been
t3reatene<> assaulte<> $rosecute<> im$risone<> an< even ?ille<. 0n a<<ition to im$e<in-
<emocracy assistance efforts> re-imes are a<o$tin- $ro!active a$$roac3es> c3annelin- fun<s to
anti!<emocratic forces an< usin- ersatE %9Js to frustrate -enuine <emocratiEation. All of t3is
3as 3a< a #c3illin- effect' on <emocracy assistance> intimi<atin- some -rou$s an< activists> an<
ma?in- it more <ifficult for t3em to receive an< utiliEe international assistance an< soli<arity.
3$ Conditioning assistance doesn%t 'or H verification )rocesses are too
difficult#
+*O/." 75
(Ste$3en> Assistant :rofessor of :olitical Science> Sc3ool of :olitical Stu<ies> an< affiliate< &it3
t3e :ro-ram in 0nternational ,evelo$ment an< 9lobaliEation at t3e =niversity of Jtta&aA
#1orei-n Ai< an< ,emocracy :romotion: Bessons from Africa>' T3e 2uro$ean @ournal of
,evelo$ment 6esearc3> +ol.1;> %o.2> @uneA
3tt$://&&&.nim<.or-/<ocuments/1/forei-nZai<Zan<Z<emocracyZ$romotion!
ZlessonsZfromZafrica.$<f)
:olitical con<itionality is not as easy an< $o&erful a tool as it mi-3t seem at first. 0f <onors 3ave
3a< tremen<ous $roblems ensurin- t3at Guantifiable an< measurable macroeconomic
con<itions are met> it is 3ar<ly sur$risin- t3at follo&in- u$ on $olitical con<itionality 3as
$roven even more c3allen-in- (=vin> 1LL*: ;*). An effective strate-y for action is rarely clear
an< tra<e!offs are necessary. 0f t3e reci$ient -overnment com$lies an< ai< is rene&e<> it is
unclear 3o& muc3 bac?sli<in- &ill tri--er rene&e< ai< sanctions. 0t is cumbersome to cancel
an< resume <evelo$ment $roIects> muc3 more so t3an ai< in t3e form of loans> cre<its or
balance!of!$ayments su$$ort. ,evelo$ment $roIects an< $ro-rams reGuire me<ium! an< lon-!
term $lannin- to 3ave a lastin- im$act. T3e ?in< of instability cause< by $olitical con<itionality
coul< Ieo$ar<ise t3eir obIectives. 1urt3ermore> t3e structure of ai< a-encies <oes not len< itself
&ell to t3e sus$ension an< resum$tion of ai<. 0t is an ex$ensive an< <isru$tive $rocess. :olitical
0#1
con<itionality is t3us a blunt instrument> to be &iel<e< &it3 care. 0t cannot by$ass t3e
com$licate< yet in<is$ensable $rocess of consensus buil<in- &it3in a <emocratisin- country.
0#1
1.C =rontline: Solvency 98
1$ (#S# democracy )romotion only 'ors in nations '!ere democracy is
coming a&out naturally H t!e (#S# cannot create democracy from t!e
outside#
0A*6SO." 11
0f ot3er nations &is3 to establis3 <emocratic -overnments of t3eir o&n an< t3e =.S. can ren<er
constructive> <esire< assistance> it may ma?e sense to offer t3at assistance. :us3in- for $olitical
c3an-e in ot3er countries &3ere =.S. efforts are neit3er &elcome nor useful is a &aste of
resources an< an unearne< -ift for t3e local re-ime. ,emocratists also consistently overestimate
t3e value of =.S. su$$ort> &3ic3 may be useful in some cases but &3ic3 is 3ar<ly ever <ecisive or
essential. T3e main obIection to <emocracy $romotion abroa< t3at 0 3ave is t3at t3e =.S.
-overnment <oesn5t 3ave t3e ri-3t or res$onsibility to s3a$e $olitical con<itions in ot3er
countries> an< it s3oul<n5t try to <o so unless our assistance is &elcome< by most of t3e $eo$le
in t3e ot3er country. T3e <ebacle of t3e #free<om a-en<a' is a soberin- cautionary tale of t3e
?in< of <emocracy $romotion t3at 3arms t3e countries involve< an< bac?fires on t3e =.S.
/) ,lections can%t &e secured until institutions are reformed#
46--S" 11
(:atric?> stu<ent at =niversity of 7irmin-3amA #@um$in- t3e Boa<e< 9un: o& :romotin-
,emocracy 1ails to Ac3ieve :eace>' D2/1*> 3tt$://&&&.e!ir.info/2D1*/D2/D5/Ium$in-!t3e!
loa<e<!-un!3o&!3astily!$romotin-!<emocracy!fails!to!ac3ieve!$eace/)
So &3ere <i< t3e 4est -o &ron-R Collier sums u$ t3e inci<ent $recisely in one sentence: #&e
3ave been unrealistic in ex$ectin- t3at t3ese societies coul< in one ste$ ma?e a transition t3at
3istorically 3as been ma<e in several <istinct ste$s' (Collier> 2DDL: /L). Mista?es a<mitte<> 3o&
<o &e $rocee<R Mansfiel< an< Sny<er offer t3e best course of action> &ritin- #&3at is nee<e< is
to i<entify t3e con<itions t3at lea< to relatively $eaceful <emocratiEation an< try to create t3ose
circumstances' (Mansfiel< X Sny<er> 1LL5: ;L). Buc?ily for our analysis> 1lores an< %ooru<<in>
as &ell as %ancy 7ermeo> 3ave <one Iust t3at. Accor<in- to 1lores an< %ooru<<in> t3e
$ost$onement of elections to focus on institution!buil<in- <ecreases t3e $robability of recurrin-
violence (1lores an< %ooru<<in> 2D12: 588). T3e t&o researc3ers i<entify t3ree main concerns:
#a &ell!<esi-ne< electorate' for free an< fair elections> #constraints on t3e executive' to re<uce
t3e ca$ability of re$ression> an< t3e nee< for #security institutions F inclu<in- civilian control
over t3e military an< $olice to 3el$ lo&er t3e $robability t3at $oliticians can resort to violence'
(1lores X %ooru<<in> 2D12: 588). 0n ac3ievin- t3e t3ir< concern re-ar<in- civilian control of
<efence forces> %ancy 7ermeo &rites t3at t3e ne& -overnment must #$ur-e or retire any officer
&3o is <isloyal> $unis3 cou$ ma?ers rut3lessly> clarify t3e c3ain of comman<[an< raise t3e
0#1
status of t3e ]reforme<5 military t3rou-3 $ublic ceremonies' (7ermeo> 2DD*: 18.). Successfully
creatin- t3ese institutional c3an-es before 3an<in- out ballots &ill safe-uar< t3e <evelo$ment
of <emocracy in lo&!income or $ostconflict societies &3ile at t3e same time $romotin- stability.
CMSDL Core Files 2013/14
0#1
3.C ,xtension Solvency - ?1 @Anti-Democracy +aclas!A 99
Off of 1.C ?1" t!e counter-democracy turn" grou) t!e 3AC res)onses#
1$ .e' (#S# economic assistance 'ill strengt!en anti-democratic
movements 'it!in FeneGuela and anger )o'erful elites looing to !ang on
to control# -!e ey is t!at our turn focuses on '!at t!ose '!o !ave )o'er
'ill do# ,xtend our .A-6O.A0 ,.DO/M,.- =O* D,MOC*AC: evidence#
3$ Democracy )romotion 'ill not solve anti-Americanism#
0A*6SO." 11
Su$$ort for <emocratic -overnments in ot3er countries may be in our national interest in some
cases> an< it may not in ot3ers. At t3e very least> <emocratiEation in anot3er country <oesn5t
ensure t3at =.S. relations &it3 t3at country &ill be im$rove<> an< it may en< u$ ma?in- it
3ar<er for t3e =.S. to secure coo$eration from t3e ne& -overnment. Ar-uments for <emocracy
$romotion &oul< be more cre<ible if its a<vocates &ere more &illin- to ac?no&le<-e t3at t3ere
are tra<e!offs an< costs for t3e =.S. involve<. 0n some cases> t3e interests of ot3er states &ill
<iver-e from ours no matter &3at form of -overnment t3ey 3ave> an< in ot3er cases our
interests &it3 ali-n &it3 t3ose of ot3er states re-ar<less of re-ime ty$e.
0#1
3.C ,xtension Solvency - ?3 @Conditioning =ailsA 9<
Off of 1.C ?3 @Conditioning fails &ecause it is too difficult to verify"A grou)
t!e 3AC res)onses#
1$ Attac!ing conditions suc! as verifying election results to (#S# economic
assistance causes t!e )lan to fail &ecause no&ody 'ill &e a&le to confirm t!e
results" FeneGuela 'ill treat t!e offer as an em)ty t!reat t!at does not
reEuire reform# ,xtend our +*O/. evidence#
3$ Conditioning doesn%t )rovide enoug! of a t!reat to )roduce c!ange#
0eaders 'ill )retend to do t!e &are minimum" and t!en continue fig!ting
democracy#
+*O/." 75
Autocrats often survive $ressure for <emocratisation. :olitical con<itionality> as currently
a$$lie<> can be eva<e<. Many African -overnments Guic?ly learne< 3o& to ma?e t3e minimum
necessary reforms to retain t3eir levels of ai<: allo&in- o$$osition $arties to com$ete> but not
&inA $ermittin- an in<e$en<ent $ress to o$erate> but not freelyA allo&in- civic -rou$s to
function> but not effectivelyA an< consentin- t3at elections be 3el<> but not re$lace t3e rulin-
$arty (@ose$3> 1LL;: 82A Carot3ers> 1LL;). Many aut3oritarian re-imes <is$lay consi<erable
in-enuity to eva<e $olitical con<itionality an< resist <emocratisation. 0n Oaire> for instance>
:resi<ent Mobutu Sese Se?o res$on<e< to <omestic an< <onor $ressure by allo&in-
multi$artyism in 1LLD. e nonet3eless remaine< in $o&er until 1LL;> &3en rebel forces> bac?e<
by 6&an<a an< =-an<a> overt3re& 3im. is survival 3as been attribute< to 3is ]retain(in-)
control of ?ey institutions5 an< 3is ]formi<able $olitical s?ills> $racticin- successful <ivi<e!an<!
rule tactics a-ainst t3e <omestic o$$osition as &ell as 3is erst&3ile bac?ers5> namely 7el-ium>
1rance an< t3e =S (Turner> 1LL;:255F8).
0#1
3.C ,xtension Solvency - ?1 @Democracy ) romotion failsA <7
Off of 1.C ?1 @Democracy )romotion from t!e outside fails"A grou) t!e 3AC
res)onses#
1$ -!e )lan 'on%t !ave any effect on FeneGuelan democracy &ecause
democracy )romotion &y foreign countries never 'ors# 6f a country isn%t
already democratiGing" t!en no assistance 'ill &e enoug! to overcome
domestic o&stacles# ,xtend our 0A*6SO. evidence#
3$ -!e )ast 17 years of democracy )romotion in )laces lie 6raE )rove t!e
(nited States cannot set u) a democratic government#
0A*6SO." 13
(,aniel> :3,.> contributin- e<itor at T3e American ConservativeA #T3e en<urin- failure of
<emocracy $romotion abroa<>' D//11> 3tt$://t3e&ee?.com/bull$en/column/228882/t3e!
en<urin-!failure!of!<emocracy!$romotion!abroa<)
Since t3e en< of t3e Col< 4ar> <emocracy $romotion 3as been one of t3e <efault elements of
=.S. forei-n $olicy. S$rea<in- <emocracy became a $articularly im$ortant $art of t3e 7us3
a<ministrationMs r3etoric in su$$ort of its so!calle< Nfree<om a-en<a>N &3ic3 &as at t3e same
time far more selective an< inconsistent t3an its universalistic assum$tions &oul< su--est. An<
since t3e be-innin- of $o$ular u$risin-s in %ort3 Africa an< t3e %ear 2ast last year> <emocracy
$romotion 3as also fi-ure< more $rominently in t3e $ublic r3etoric an< $olicies of t3e Jbama
a<ministration. 7ut letMs face it: 43ile t3ere may be exce$tions> <emocracy $romotion <urin-
t3e last <eca<e 3as -enerally $ro<uce< <ismal results for t3e nations affecte< by it. 0t is easy
enou-3 to $oint to &ell!?no&n exam$les in &3ic3 t3e Nfree<om a-en<aN imme<iately bac?fire<:
0n $laces li?e 0raG> Bebanon> an< 9aEa> <emocracy!3oc?in- me<<lers em$o&ere< sectarian
$arties> militias> an< terrorist -rou$s. o&ever> t3at <oesnMt fully account for its failure. T3e
best &ay to a$$reciate t3e failure of =.S.!le< <emocracy $romotion over t3e last 1D years is to
loo? closely at its su$$ose< success stories in 9eor-ia an< Bibya.
0#1
3.C ,xtension Solvency - ?4 @,lections aren%t e noug!A B1>3C <1
Off of 1.C ?4 @6nstitutions !ave to &e reformed first"A grou) t!e 3AC
res)onses#
1$ ,lections are t!e last )art of t!e democratic )rocess" and trying to fix
t!ose 'it!out first esta&lis!ing democratic institutions is im)ossi&le# -!e
)lan doesn%t even try to deal 'it! t!ese ot!er issues" so it can%t solve# ,xtend
our 46--S evidence#
3$ -rying to rus! election reform &efore more fundamental institutional
c!ange 'ill cause violence and colla)se t!e )rocess#
46--S" 11
(:atric?> stu<ent at =niversity of 7irmin-3amA #@um$in- t3e Boa<e< 9un: o& :romotin-
,emocracy 1ails to Ac3ieve :eace>' D2/1*> 3tt$://&&&.e!ir.info/2D1*/D2/D5/Ium$in-!t3e!
loa<e<!-un!3o&!3astily!$romotin-!<emocracy!fails!to!ac3ieve!$eace/)
T3e issue of rus3e< <emocratiEation is a $aramount subIect in to<ay5s realm of international
relations. 7efore t3e =nite< States> any 4estern nation> or multilateral coalition <eci<es to
intervene in t3e <omestic affairs of anot3er country> attention must be -iven to t3e $olitical>
economic> an< social re$ercussions lon- after armies 3ave come an< -one. T3is s3oul<
es$ecially be ?e$t in min< t3rou-3out <evelo$ments in t3e Syrian conflict. 7y 3urrie<ly
s$onsorin- <emocracy in t3e form of #rus3in- to t3e $olls'> t3e 4est 3as in fact increase<
$olitical violence in t3e societies of t3e #bottom billion'> an< most li?ely #retar<e< t3e reform of
economic $olicies an< -overnance' in t3ese societies (Collier> 2DDL: //). T3us> as of no&>
<emocracy 3as not been a source of $eace an< $ros$erity across!t3e!boar< in international
relations. Jnly t3rou-3 $ro<ucin- t3e institutional necessities of successful <emocracy
before3an< can <emocratiEation ever be remotely beneficial in en< resultA for #t3e establis3ment
of functional systems of <emocratic -overnance [ is an in<is$ensable <imension of efforts to
buil< lastin- $eace' (7ro&n> 2DD*: 1;8).
0#1
3.C ,xtension Solvency - ?4 @,lections a ren%t e noug!A B3>3C <3
1$ Conditional aid doesn%t get )ressed &eyond t!e initial election" maing
any solvency s!ort-term and doomed to eventual failure#
+*O/." 75
:oor results are> in $art> <ue to lo& <onor commitment to <emocratisation> es$ecially beyon<
t3e 3ol<in- of multi$arty elections. 43ere commitment is 3i-3er> <onors a$$ly more $ressure
an< sustain it. Vet> t3eir measures are often &ea?> $rom$tin- concerns about t3eir cre<ibility
(Cra&for<> 1LL;: 8L). ,onors <o not reinforce <emocracy $romotion by local actors an</or <o
not maintain $ressure after t3e foun<in- elections. T3ey are mo<estly involve< in $ost!electoral
$olitical reform an< are reluctant to a$$ly $olitical con<itionality. 7ilateral <onors are es$ecially
li?ely to su$$ort a ra$i< move to an electoral re-ime> even if severely fla&e<. Multilateral <onors
<is$lay more concern &it3 economic an< a<ministrative reforms t3at are believe< to facilitate
-ro&t3 t3an &it3 <emocracy $er seA in some instances> li?e &it3 t3e 7retton 4oo<s institutions>
t3eir statutes $ro3ibit t3em from favourin- one $olitical system over anot3er.
0#1
6ran Add-On *es)onses B1>3C <1
1$ -!eir !arm scenarios contradict eac! ot!er# 6f t!e FeneGuelan economy
is in s!am&les" t!en FeneGuela 'on%t !ave any money to su))ort 6ran%s
nuclear )rogram# 6f t!e FeneGuelan economy is 'oring" t!en t!e
government is already reforming and solving democracy# ,it!er 'ay" t!e
)lan is not necessary#
3$ -!e 6ran-FeneGuela alliance 'as &ased on C!aveG%s )ersonal relations!i)
S(006FA." 11
0n terms of +eneEuela5s forei-n $olicy> observers &3o believe t3at Ma<uro &ill &in t3e election
maintain t3at t3ere &oul< be continuity &it3 t3e $olicy un<er :resi<ent C3TveE> es$ecially since
Ma<uro serve< as 3is 1orei-n Minister for more t3an six years. Many see +eneEuela5s stron-
su$$ort for Cuba continuin- un<er a Ma<uro $resi<ency> alt3ou-3 some analysts conten< t3at a
<ifficult economic situation in +eneEuela coul< result in a <iminis3ment of t3at su$$ort. Some
observers also conten< t3at &it3out C3TveE at t3e 3elm> +eneEuela5s role as a re-ional $o&er
coul< be-in to &ane as &ell as its relations &it3 0ran. +eneEuela5s stren-t3enin- of relations &it3
0ran in recent years is vie&e< by many analysts as bein- <riven by t3e $ersonal relations3i$
bet&een C3TveE an< 0ranian :resi<ent Ma3mou< A3ma<ineIa<.
0#1
6ran Add-On *es)onses B3>3C <4
1$ 6ran is 'illing to negotiate and !as agreed to strict monitoring of its
nuclear )rogram so t!ere is no ris of ra)id )roliferation or 'ar
M6DD0, ,AS- MO.6-O*" 11
(,r. ,au< Ab<ulla3A #A ,an-erous ,elusion F 43y t3e 4est is 4ron- About %uclear 0ran>'
//22A 3tt$://&&&.mi<<leeastmonitor.com/me<ia!revie&/boo?!revie&/5.DD!a!<an-erous!
<elusion!&3y!t3e!&est!is!&ron-!about!nuclear!iran)
At t3e crucial ne-otiations> &3ic3 too? $lace in :aris in t3e s$rin- of 2DD5> t3e 0ranians offere<
to subIect t3eir facilities to im$rove< external ins$ection an< remain boun< by t3e %:T. 0n<ee<>
t3ey also offere< -uarantees to ensure t3at t3ey &oul< not <ivert t3eir $ro-ramme for military
use. avin- s$urne< t3ese offers> t3e aut3ors conten< t3at t3e &est ! t3e 2=* an< t3e =S ! &ere
clearly not intereste< in <evisin- NobIective -uarantees t3at 0ranMs nuclear $ro-ramme is
exclusively for $eaceful $ur$oses.N :eter @en?ins> t3e former 7ritis3 ambassa<or to t3e 0A2A
<urin- t3is crucial $erio< conce<e< t3at> N4it3 3in<si-3t> t3at offer s3oul< 3ave been sna$$e<
u$. 0t &asnMt because our obIective &as to $ut a sto$ to all enric3ment in 0ran.N Actin- in
a$$arent ba<!fait3> 7ritain an< 1rance $ersua<e< t3e 0A2AMs 7oar< to a<o$t a resolution in
Se$tember 2DD5 <eclarin- 0ran to be in Mnon!com$lianceMA a $3rase &3ic3 obli-e< t3e A-ency to
refer t3e matter to t3e Security Council. T3at ste$ &as ta?en in Marc3 2DD8. T3e move &as
extremely <ubious an< Guestione< by 2l7ara<ei. Since *1 @uly 2DD8> t3e Security Council $asse<
six C3a$ter +00 resolutions a-ainst 0ran. Suc3 ste$s> t3e aut3ors ar-ue> s3oul< only be ta?en
&3en t3ere is a Mt3reat to t3e $eaceM> &3ic3 merit action by t3e Council Mto maintain or restore
international $eace an< security.M Vet t&o mont3s $rior> 2l7ara<ei tol< t3e Monterey 0nstitute of
0nternational Stu<iesA NJur assessment is t3at t3ere is no imminent t3reat...t3ere is no clear an<
$resent <an-er.N 9iven t3e com$re3ensive sanctions re-ime t3at 3as been im$ose< on 0ran>
Jborne an< Morrison 3ol< t3e =S an< its allies &3olly res$onsible for t3e resultant Ma$$allin-M
sufferin- of t3e 0ranian $eo$le. T3e sanctions &ere en-ineere< in t3e =S Con-ress at t3e be3est
of t3e $ro!0srael lobby to eliminate 0ran from t3e international ban?in- system an< ma?e it
inca$able of $ayin- for life!savin- me<icine.
Cuba #tha!ol Case 1/1
/FF
Cu&a ,t!anol Affirmative <5
1AC: Cuban 2t3anol Affirmative.................................................................................................1D2
2AC 2xtension arms F 2nvironment: A/t "1 #S$ecies Are 6esilient'......................................12*
2AC 2xtension arms F 2nvironment: A/t "2 #Corn is Clean'..................................................12/
2AC 2xtension arms F 2nvironment: A/t "* #%o Tra<e!off' (1/2)..........................................125
2AC 2xtension arms F 2nvironment: A/t "/ #,evelo$in- Countries are Cey'.......................12;
2AC 2xtension arms F 2conomy: A/t " 1 #Mi<&est 2conomies Turn' (1/*)...........................12.
2AC 2xtension arms F 2conomy: A/t "2 #2t3anol 0sn5t 2nou-3' (1//)...................................1*1
2AC 2xtension arms F 2conomy: A/t "* #%o Mar?et' (1/2)...................................................1*5
2AC 2xtension arms F 2conomy: A/t "/ #2conomy is 6esilient'............................................1*;
2AC 2xtension Solvency F A/t "1 #%o :olitical 4ill'..................................................................1*.
2AC 2xtension Solvency F A/t "2 #7a< 7usiness Climate' (1/2)................................................1*L
2AC 2xtension Solvency F A/t "* #7raEil Solves 0nvestment'....................................................1/1
T2S0S: T3e =.S. 3as 3a< an embar-o $ro3ibitin- tra<e &it3 Cuba for 5* years.
0t is time for t3e =.S. to lift a $ortion of t3at embar-o F t3e $ortion t3at $ro3ibits
our tra<e in et3anol. As one of t3e &orl<5s maIor $ro<ucers of su-ar> Cuba 3as
t3e ca$acity to $ro<uce an< sell to t3e =.S. a maIor amount of su-arcane et3anol.
0f it <i< so> t3e =.S. &oul< re<uce its use of corn!base< et3anol> &3ic3 is actually
very ba< for t3e environment because of t3e &ay corn is farme<A an< t3e =.S.
&oul< $rotect its economy from oil $rice s3oc?s> &3ic3 t3reaten anot3er
economic crisis in t3e near future.
/FF
1AC: Cu&an ,t!anol Affirmative <2
Contention One is t!e first Harms scenario: ,nvironmental Destruction#
-!e status Euo commitment to corn-&ased et!anol is destroying t!e
environment#
1$ (#S# )olicies favoring corn-&ased et!anol over sugar-&ased et!anol force
farmers to )lant only corn '!ic! massively increases fertiliGer use# -!is is
177 times 'orse for glo&al 'arming t!an car&on dioxide emissions#
S4,CH-" 13
(@onat3an> Be-al A<visor for :earlma?er olsteins> 0nc. 7A @.,.> 4as3in-ton =niversity in St.
BouisA #6aisin- Cane: Cuban Su-arcane 2t3anol5s 2conomic an< 2nvironmental 2ffects on t3e
=nite< States>' //2/> 3tt$://environs.la&.uc<avis.e<u/issues/*8/2/s$ec3t.$<f)
T3e $rocess by &3ic3 incentives for et3anol $ro<uction c3an-e lan< use $atterns an< t3ereby
im$act climate c3an-e> ?no&n as in<irect lan< use c3an-e (0B=C)> 3a$$ens rou-3ly as follo&s.
8* 7y increasin- <eman< for corn> corn!base< et3anol $ro<uction <rives u$ t3e $rice of corn. As
t3e $rice of corn increases> farmers &ant to -ro& more of it. 7y ma?in- corn more a$$ealin- to
farmers to -ro& t3an ot3er cro$s> an< t3ereby increasin- national levels of corn $ro<uction> t3e
corn!base< et3anol in<ustry ma?es t3e ne-ative environmental effects of corn $ro<uction more
&i<es$rea<. Conventional corn!-ro&in- tec3niGues involve a$$lyin- more $estici<es an<
fertiliEers to corn t3an is usually a$$lie< to ot3er ro& cro$s suc3 as soybeans. T3is effect is
exacerbate< &3en 3i-3 corn $rices <isincentiviEe cro$ rotation. . . . t3e <omestic et3anol
in<ustry encoura-es farmers to use t3e same $iece of lan< to -ro& corn year after year. 9ro&in-
corn on t3e same lan< in successive years rat3er t3an rotatin- it &it3 soybeans si-nificantly
increases t3e climate c3an-e effects of corn $ro<uction because #nitro-en fertiliEer a$$lications
are ty$ically fifty $oun<s $er acre 3i-3er for corn $lante< after corn' an< #nitrous oxi<e 3as a
-lobal &armin- $otential more t3an *DD times t3at of (carbon <ioxi<e).' A<<itionally> t3e
/FF
a$$lication of fossil fuel!<erive< nitro-en fertiliEer 3as ot3er environmental im$acts beyon<
exacerbatin- climate c3an-e.
/FF
3$ ;rasslands '!ere corn is )lanted are car&on sins" storing dangerous
gases underground# 4lo'ing t!em to )lant more corn releases emissions
into t!e atmos)!ere" causing glo&al 'arming#
S4,CH-" 13
1urt3ermore> in a<<ition to $rovi<in- 3abitat for &il<life> -rasslan<s act as a carbon sin?>
?ee$in- centuries5 &ort3 of accumulate< atmos$3eric carbon in un<er-roun< root systems.
43en native -rasslan< is $lo&e< to -ro& cro$s li?e corn> t3e carbon store< in its soil is release<
into t3e atmos$3ere> furt3er exacerbatin- climate c3an-e an< counterbalancin- t3e -reen3ouse
-as benefits of re$lacin- fossil fuel!base< -asoline &it3 corn!base< et3anol. Ta?en to-et3er> t3e
environmental costs of increasin- <omestic corn!base< et3anol $ro<uction by $lo&in- native
-rasslan<s in t3e 9reat :lains star?ly out&ei-3 t3eir benefits. #:lo&in- u$ our nation5s last
remnants of native -rasslan<s to -ro& more corn for et3anol is li?e burnin- t3e Mona Bisa for
fire&oo<.'
1$ ;lo&al 'arming is nearing a ti))ing )oint" '!ere sto))ing t!e )ro&lem is
im)ossi&le &ecause momentum ee)s 'arming t!e )lanet even after
emissions sto)#
HA.SO." 9
(@ames> A<Iunct :rofessor of 2art3 an< 2nvironmental Sciences at Columbia =niversity5s 2art3
0nstitute> #Ti$$in- $oint: :ers$ective of a Scientist.' A$ril>
3tt$://&&&.columbia.e<u/`Ie31/2DD./StateJf4il<Z2DD.D/2..$<f)
Jur 3ome $lanet is <an-erously near a ti$$in- $oint at &3ic3 3uman!ma<e -reen3ouse -ases
reac3 a level &3ere maIor climate c3an-es can $rocee< mostly un<er t3eir o&n momentum.
4armin- &ill s3ift climatic Eones by intensifyin- t3e 3y<rolo-ic cycle> affectin- fres3&ater
availability an< 3uman 3ealt3. 4e &ill see re$eate< coastal tra-e<ies associate< &it3 storms an<
continuously risin- sea levels. T3e im$lications are $rofoun<> an< t3e only resolution is for
3umans to move to a fun<amentally <ifferent ener-y $at3&ay &it3in a <eca<e. Jt3er&ise> it &ill
be too late for one!t3ir< of t3e &orl<5s animal an< $lant s$ecies an< millions of t3e most
vulnerable members of our o&n s$ecies. 4e may be able to $reserve t3e remar?able $lanet on
&3ic3 civiliEation <evelo$e<> but it &ill not be easy: s$ecial interests are resistant to c3an-e an<
3ave inor<inate $o&er in our -overnments> es$ecially in t3e =nite< States. =n<erstan<in- t3e
nature an< causes of climate c3an-e is essential to craftin- solutions to our current crisis.
/FF
4$ ;lo&al 'arming maes every 'ar scenario inevita&le &y creating
migratory stresses and resource s!ortages#
0,," <
(@ames> American =niversity5s 0nventory of Conflict an< 2nvironment :roIect Bea<er> #9lobal
4armin- 0s @ust t3e Ti$ of t3e 0ceber->' T3e 4as3in-ton :ost> @anuary /> Bexis%exis)
T3e Col< 4ar s3a$e< &orl< $olitics for 3alf a century. 7ut -lobal &armin- may s3a$e t3e $atterns of
-lobal conflict for muc3 lon-er t3an t3at !! an< 3el$ s$ar? clas3es t3at &ill be> in every sense of t3e &or<>
3ot &ars. 4eMre use< to t3in?in- of climate c3an-e as an environmental $roblem> not a military one> but
itMs lon- $ast time to alter t3at min<set. Climate c3an-e may mean c3an-es in 4estern lifestyles> but in
some $arts of t3e &orl<> it &ill mean far more. Bivin- in 4as3in-ton> 0 may res$on< to -lobal &armin- by
buyin- a :rius> $lantin- a tree or lo&erin- my t3ermostat. 7ut else&3ere> $eo$le &ill res$on< to climate
c3an-e by buil<in- bomb s3elters an< buyin- -uns. NT3ere is every reason to believe t3at as t3e 21st
century unfol<s> t3e security story &ill be boun< to-et3er &it3 climate c3an-e>N &arns @o3n As3ton> a
veteran <i$lomat &3o is no& t3e =nite< Cin-<omMs first s$ecial envoy on climate c3an-e. NT3e last time
t3e &orl< face< a c3allen-e t3is com$lex &as <urin- t3e Col< 4ar. Vet t3e sta?es t3is time are even 3i-3er
because t3e enemy no& is ourselves> t3e c3oices &e ma?e.N ,efense ex$erts 3ave also starte< to see t3e
lin? bet&een climate c3an-e an< conflict. A 2DD; C%A Cor$. re$ort> su$ervise< by a <oEen retire<
a<mirals an< -enerals> &arne< t3at climate c3an-e coul< lea< to $olitical unrest in numerous ba<ly 3it
countries> t3en $er3a$s to outri-3t bloo<s3e< an< battle. Jne ?ey factor t3at coul< sto?e t3ese tensions is
massive mi-ration as $eo$le flee increasin-ly unin3abitable areas> &3ic3 &oul< lea< to bor<er tensions>
-reater <eman<s for rescue an< evacuation services an< <is$utes over essential resources. 4it3 t3ese
t3reats loomin-> t3e =.%. Security Council 3el< a $rece<ent!settin- <ebate on climate c3an-e in A$ril
2DD; !! ex$licitly castin- -lobal &armin- as a national security issue. 9lobal &armin- coul< lea< to
&arfare in t3ree <ifferent &ays. T3e first is conflict arisin- from scarcity. As t3e &orl< -ets 3otter an<
<rier> -laciers &ill melt> an< t3e amount of arable lan< &ill s3rin?. 0n turn> fres3 &ater> $lants> cro$s an<
cattle an< ot3er <omestic animals &ill be 3ar<er to come by> t3ereby s$urrin- com$etition an< conflict
over &3atMs left. 0n extreme exam$les> a truly <esiccate< ecosystem coul< mean a com$lete evacuation of a
3ar<!3it re-ion. An< t3e more $eo$le move> t3e more t3ey &ill Iostle &it3 t3eir ne& nei-3bors. Suc3
<is$lacement can arise eit3er su<<enly or slo&ly. T3e -ro&t3 of t3e Sa3ara> for instance> too? many
millenniumsA many t3ousan<s of years a-o> $eo$le &ere slo&ly nu<-e< out of t3e inlan< re-ion of
nort3ern Africa an< into suc3 -reat river valleys as t3e %ile an< t3e %i-er. Jver time> incremental but
$rolon-e< rises in sea levels &ill also -ra<ually u$root 3un<re<s of millions of $eo$le. 7ut sometimes t3e
<is$lacement 3a$$ens &it3 s3oc?in- s$ee<: @ust t3in? of t3e <ea<ly 3urricanes Catrina an< 6ita> &3ic3
to-et3er <rove millions of $eo$le to su<<enly leave Bouisiana> Mississi$$i an< Texas. As -lobal &armin-
an< $o$ulation -ro&t3 increase> &e coul< see far <ea<lier storms t3an Catrina. 0n 1LL1> a cyclone in
7an-la<es3 <is$lace< 2 million $eo$le an< ?ille< 1*.>DDD. All t3is can lea< to &arfare &3en itMs time for
t3e <is$lace< to fin< a ne& 3ome. 1or most of 3uman 3istory> t3ey coul< at least t3eoretically <o so in
unclaime< lan<s tam$e< <o&n conflict. 7ut to<ay> t3is reservoir of vacant turf no lon-er exists> exce$t in
t3e least 3os$itable $arts of t3e $lanet. So &3en t3e <is$lace< start eyein- currently in3abite< areas>
ex$ect trouble !! an< t3e bi--er t3e <is$lacement> t3e bi--er t3e fi-3t. T3e secon< cause of t3e comin-
climate &ars is t3e fli$ si<e of scarcity: t3e $roblems of an increase in abun<ance. Su$$ose t3at -lobal
&armin- ma?es a $recious resource easier to -et at F
/FF
1AC: Cu&an ,t!anol Affirmative <<
[Lee evidence continues, no text deleted]
say> risin- tem$eratures in nort3ern Cana<a> Alas?a an< Siberia ma?e it easier to -et at oil an<
-as resources in re-ions t3at 3a< $reviously been too bone!c3illin- to ta$. (A fe& <e-rees of
c3an-e in tem$erature can transform a $reviously in3os$itable climate.) 7ut &3at 3a$$ens if
some tem$tin- ne& fiel< $o$s u$ in international &aters conteste< by t&o -reat $o&ersR Jr if
smaller countries &it3 mur?y bor<ers start ar-uin- over ne&ly arable lan<R 1inally> &e s3oul<
also &orry about ne& conflicts over issues of soverei-nty t3at &e <i<nMt nee< to <eal &it3 in our
ol<er> col<er &orl<. Consi<er t3e %ort3&est :assa-e> &3ic3 is turnin- into an ice!free corri<or
from 2uro$e to Asia <urin- t3e summer mont3s. Cana<a claims some $ortions of t3e route as
its o&n soverei-n &aters> &3ile t3e =nite< States ar-ues t3at t3ese sections lie &it3in
international &aters. A<mitte<ly> itM< ta?e a lot of tension for t3is to turn into a military conflict>
but anyone convince< t3at t3e =nite< States an< Cana<a coul< never come to blo&s 3as
for-otten t3e 4ar of 1.12. An< not all t3is sort of resource conflict &ill occur bet&een frien<ly
countries. Jt3er ?in<s of territorial Guarrels &ill arise> too. Some remote islan<s !! $articularly
suc3 :acific islan<s as Tuvalu> Ciribati> Ton-a> t3e Mal<ives an< many ot3ers !! may be $artially
or entirely submer-e< beneat3 risin- ocean &aters. ,o t3ey lose t3eir soverei-nty if t3eir
territory <isa$$earsR After all> -overnments in exile 3ave maintaine< soverei-n ri-3ts in t3e $ast
over lan< t3ey <i<nMt control (t3in? of 1rance an< :olan< in 4orl< 4ar 00). %or are t3ese ne&
Guestions far a&ay in t3e future. T3e first <emocratically electe< $resi<ent of t3e Mal<ives>
Mo3ame< %as3ee<> is alrea<y $lannin- to use tourism revenue to buy lan< abroa< !! $er3a$s in
0n<ia> Sri Ban?a or Australia !! to 3ouse 3is citiEens. N4e <o not &ant to leave t3e Mal<ives> but
&e also <o not &ant to be climate refu-ees livin- in tents for <eca<es>N 3e tol< 7ritainMs 9uar<ian
ne&s$a$er. T3e net result of t3ese c3an-es &ill be t3e creation of t&o -eo$olitical belts of
tension <ue to -lobal &armin-> &3ic3 &ill <ramatically s3a$e t3e $atterns of conflict in t3e 21st
century. 1irst> $olitics &ill 3eat u$ alon- &3at &e mi-3t call t3e eGuatorial tension belt> a broa<
s&at3 of instability aroun< t3e $lanetMs center. T3is belt &ill cree$ sout3&ar<> <ee$er into
Africa> an< exten< far into central Asia. Secon<> a ne& tension belt &ill <evelo$ aroun< t3e $olar
circles. 0n t3e s3ort term> t3e main $roblems &ill arise in t3e %ort3ern emis$3ere> but later in
t3e 21st century> t3e area aroun< t3e Sout3 :ole may also see increasin- security strains as
countries rus3 to claim an< <evelo$ 3eretofore froEen areas. 0f t3e eGuatorial tension belt
inclu<es mostly $oor> <evelo$in- countries fi-3tin- over survival> t3e ne& $olar tension belt &ill
<ra& in &ealt3y> <evelo$e< countries fi-3tin- over o$$ortunity. T3is is> a<mitte<ly> a -lum vie&
of t3e future. 7ut &e can still avoi< t3e ne& 3ot &ars !! or at least cool t3em <o&n a bit. 1or
starters> &e s3oul< re<ouble our efforts to slo& <o&n -lobal &armin- an< un<o t3e <ama-e
3umanity 3as alrea<y <one to t3e environment. 2very little bit 3el$s> so by all means> 3assle
your senator an< recycle t3ose bottles. 7eyon< t3at> &e nee< to -et our 3ea<s aroun< t3e i<ea
t3at -lobal &armin- is one of t3e most serious lon-!term t3reats to our national an< $ersonal
security. 1or t3e next t&o <eca<es or so> t3e climate &ill continue to c3an-e: istoric levels of
built!u$ -reen3ouse -ases &ill continue to &arm t3e &orl< !! an< s$in it to&ar< ne& $atterns of
conflict. So &e nee< to <o more t3an sim$ly reverse climate c3an-e. 4e nee< to un<erstan< an<
react to it !! or<inary $eo$le an< -overnments ali?e !! in &ays t3at avoi< conflict. Jver t3e next
/FF
fe& years> &e may fin< t3at climate!c3an-e accor<s an< $eace treaties start to overla$ more an<
more. An< &e may fin< t3at -lobal &armin- is 3eatin- ne& conflicts u$ to t3e boilin- $oint.

/FF
1AC: Cu&an ,t!anol Affirmative 177
Contention -'o is t!e second Harms scenario: ,conomic Colla)se#
-!e (nited States% trade em&argo 'it! Cu&a maes it im)ossi&le to access
Cu&an-gro'n sugarcane et!anol# Oil- and corn-&ased fuels are causing fuel
)rice s)ies t!at colla)se t!e (#S# economy#
1$ -!e (#S# economy de)ends on c!ea) and efficient liEuid fuels for
automo&ile trans)ortation" &ut )etroleum gasoline is &ecoming more
ex)ensive and unsta&le#
S4,CH-" 13
(@onat3an> Be-al A<visor for :earlma?er olsteins> 0nc. 7A @.,.> 4as3in-ton =niversity in St. BouisA #6aisin- Cane:
Cuban Su-arcane 2t3anol5s 2conomic an< 2nvironmental 2ffects on t3e =nite< States>' //2/>
3tt$://environs.la&.uc<avis.e<u/issues/*8/2/s$ec3t.$<f)
#T3e =nite< States of America cannot affor< to bet our lon-!term $ros$erity an< security on a
resource t3at &ill eventually run out.' T3is <ramatic Guote from :resi<ent Jbama o$ens t3e
43ite ouse5s forty!four $a-e 7lue$rint for a Secure 2ner-y 1uture. 2 T3e resource referre< to>
oil> is in<ee< finite. #(T)3e out$ut of conventional oil &ill $ea? in 2D2D>' accor<in- to estimates
from t3e c3ief economist for t3e 0nternational 2ner-y A-ency. * T3e trans$ortation sector 3as
increase< its oil consum$tion over t3e $ast t3irty years in t3e =nite< States &3ile resi<ential>
commercial> an< electric utilities 3ave <ecrease< consum$tion. / Sim$ly $ut> America5s oil
$roblem is an automobile $roblem. T3ere are a number of &ays t3e =.S. trans$ortation sector
coul< re<uce t3e amount of oil it consumes: raisin- ve3icle fuel efficiency stan<ar<s furt3erA
increasin- an< im$rovin- li-3t rail an< ot3er $ublic trans$ortation o$tionsA buil<in- more
&al?able communities so <aily erran<s coul< be ma<e &it3out usin- an automobileA
encoura-in- $eo$le to live closer to &3ere t3ey &or?A an< increasin- t3e availability of electric
cars. Vet> even usin- all of t3ese strate-ies com$re3ensively &ill not c3an-e a fun<amental fact
of our oil!base< trans$ortation system K in certain areas (li?e rural communities an< outer
suburbs) t3e automobile is essential for trans$ortation> an< liGui< fuel is extremely convenient
for automobiles. 4it3 a liGui< fuel en-ine> a <river can #re!c3ar-e' 3is or 3er car in a fe&
minutes &it3 a substance t3at is &i<ely available from 7oston to 7oise an< every&3ere in
bet&een. 4it3 t3e conveniences of oil> 3o&ever> come costs. Jil is a finite resource> an< its
consum$tion $ollutes t3e air an< contributes to climate c3an-e. 1urt3ermore> it is ex$ensive
an< &ill only -et more ex$ensive in t3e future. o&ever> any realistic $lan for <ealin- &it3 a
future of re<uce< oil use must inclu<e liGui< fuels t3at are similar in convenience an<
availability to -asoline> -iven t3e -eo-ra$3y of t3e =nite< States> t3e state of t3e current
<omestic trans$ortation system> an< t3e ease of usin- liGui< fuel for t3e $ersonal automobile.
/FF
3$ Oil )rice c!anges cause s)illover effects in every industry t!at uses oil"
leading to economic colla)se#
;A;A." 17
(@o3n> MaIor in =S ArmyA #T2 =%0T2, STAT2S5 ST6AT290C 0%S2C=60TV!T2 J0B
%2a=S>' 3tt$://&&&.<tic.mil/c-i!bin/9etT6,ocRA,bA,A5*1222)
T3e cost of forei-n im$orte< oil is 3i-3 in terms of national economic security. #Jil $rice s3oc?s
an< $rice mani$ulation by J:2C 3ave cost our economy <early!!about S1.L trillion from 2DD/
to 2DD.!!an< eac3 maIor s3oc? &as follo&e< by a recession' (&&&.fueleconomy.-ov). 0n 2DD.
t3e =. S. im$orte< nearly S*5/ billion &ort3 of oil. 0n @uly of 2DD.> oil bro?e a recor< 3i-3 &3en
it &as tra<e< at S1/;.2; a barrel on t3e stoc? exc3an-e. As =.S. reliance on im$orte< oil
continues to -ro&> so <oes its economic vulnerability. As mentione< $reviously in t3is c3a$ter>
t3e economic ris? associate< &it3 loss of oil access is t3e most $robable an< most <an-erous to
t3e =.S. T3is $roblem is exacerbate< by su$$ly an< <eman<A &3en -lobal oil <eman< increases>
-lobal com$etition for t3at oil increases> &3ic3 in turns raises t3e $rice of oil &3ic3 coul<
ultimately lea< to su$$ly <isru$tions. As s3o&n> more <eman< &it3 less ca$acity creates
volatility in assurin- stable access to oil.
1$ 0ivestoc and farm o)erations de)end on lo'er feed )rices" es)ecially
corn" to maintain )rofita&ility# 6m)orting sugarcane et!anol 'ill ee) feed
)rices lo' and increase trade o))ortunities#
S4,CH-" 13
Jutsi<e of t3e Mi<&est an< 1lori<a> from a $urely economic (rat3er t3an environmental an<
economic) $ers$ective> t3e Guestion of &3et3er t3e =nite< States s3oul< re$lace a $ortion of its
-asoline &it3 <omestic corn!base< et3anol or Cuban su-arcane!base< et3anol &oul< a$$ear to
lar-ely be a &as3. Jn one 3an<> t3e =.S. tra<e <eficit &oul< increase to t3e extent t3at a
<omestically $ro<uce< $ro<uct &as re$lace< by im$orts. Jn t3e ot3er> o$enin- tra<e relations
&it3 Cuba -enerally &oul< o$en many o$$ortunities for ex$orts from t3e =nite< States to t3at
country. T3is coul< inclu<e ex$orts of corn an< ot3er $ro<ucts from t3e Mi<&est. :er3a$s t3e
$rimary =.S. beneficiaries of re$lacin- a $ortion of <omestic corn!base< et3anol &it3 Cuban
su-arcane!base< et3anol> outsi<e of 1lori<a> &oul< be livestoc? farmers an< ranc3ers. T3e
$rimary economic consi<erations for &3et3er a -iven <airy> beef> $or?> or c3ic?en o$eration can
be $rofitable are t3e costs of fee< an< t3e $rice of t3e $ro<uct sol< (mil?> beef> $or?> or c3ic?en).
7y <rivin- u$ t3e cost of corn> t3e <omestic corn!base< et3anol in<ustry t3reatens t3e
$rofitability of =.S. livestoc? o$erations. T3us> im$ortin- su-arcane!base< et3anol from Cuba
coul< actually benefit a sector of t3e =.S. a-ricultural in<ustry K inclu<in- t3e $ortion of it in
t3e Mi<&est K by lo&erin- <eman< for corn an< t3us t3e $rice of corn.
/FF
/FF
4$ Agriculture is America%s strongest ex)ort" and sta&ility is ey to
economic recovery &ecause of t!e sector%s Io&-creating )otential across
multi)le industries#
S-A+,.O/" 13
(,ebbie> =.S. Senator from Mic3i-anA #T3e 1arm 7ill is a @obs 7ill>'
3tt$://&&&.stabeno&.senate.-ov/files/<ocuments/fb!Iobs.$<f)
A-riculture re$resents a bri-3t s$ot in t3e =.S. economy an< is un<er$innin- t3e nation5s
economic recovery. 1ailure to $ass a 1arm 7ill before t3e current bill ex$ires in Se$tember
&oul< sen< &aves of Iob!?illin- uncertainty t3rou-3 a sector critical to our economic recovery.
American a-riculture su$$orts 18 million American Iobs. A-riculture is one of t3e only sectors of
t3e =.S. economy t3at boasts a tra<e sur$lus totalin- S/2.5 billion in 2D11> t3e 3i-3est annual
sur$lus on recor<. 2x$orts totale< S1*8 billion in 2D11 F a 2;D $ercent increase from 2DDD.
2very S1 billion in a-ricultural ex$orts re$resents a$$roximately .>/DD American Iobs.
A-riculture su$$orts Iobs in rural an< urban areas ali?e> creatin- not Iust farm but also
eGui$ment manufacturin-> bio!base< manufacturin-> foo< an< fiber $rocessin-> bio!ener-y
$ro<uction> retail> an< many ot3er forms of Iobs in every corner of t3e country.
/FF
5$ ,conomic colla)se causes cut&acs in necessary defense s)ending and
glo&al nuclear 'ar#
=*6,D+,*; A.D SCHO,.=,0D" 9
(Aaron> $rofessor of $olitics an< international relations at :rinceton =niversityMs 4oo<ro&
4ilson Sc3ool> an< 9abriel> senior e<itor of Commentary> is a visitin- sc3olar at t3e
4it3ers$oon 0nstitute in :rinceton> %.@.A #T3e ,an-ers of a ,iminis3e< America>' 4all Street
@ournal> 1D/2.> 3tt$://online.&sI.com/article/S7122/55D;/D12*525;1.3tmlR
mo<b-oo-lene&sZ&sI)
Jne imme<iate im$lication of t3e crisis t3at be-an on 4all Street an< s$rea< across t3e &orl< is
t3at t3e $rimary instruments of =.S. forei-n $olicy &ill be crim$e<. T3e next $resi<ent &ill face
an entirely ne& an< a<verse fiscal $osition. 2stimates of t3is yearMs fe<eral bu<-et <eficit alrea<y
s3o& t3at it 3as Ium$e< S2*; billion from last year> to S/D; billion. 4it3 families an<
businesses 3urtin-> t3ere &ill be calls for various an< ex$ensive <omestic relief $ro-rams. 0n t3e
face of t3is onrus3in- river of re< in?> bot3 7arac? Jbama an< @o3n McCain 3ave been reluctant
to lay out &3at $ortions of t3eir $ro-rammatic &is3 list t3ey mi-3t <efer or <elete. Jnly @oe
7i<en 3as su--este< a $ossible re<uction !! forei-n ai<. T3is &oul< be one of t3e fe& $o$ular
cuts> but in bu<-etary terms it is a mere -rain of san<. Still> Sen. 7i<enMs comment 3ints at
&3ere &e may be 3ea<e<: to&ar< a maIor re<uction in AmericaMs &orl< role> an< $er3a$s even a
ne& era of financially!in<uce< isolationism. :ressures to cut <efense s$en<in-> an< to <o<-e t3e
cost of &a-in- t&o &ars> alrea<y intense before t3is crisis> are li?ely to mount. ,es$ite t3e
success of t3e sur-e> t3e &ar in 0raG remains <ee$ly un$o$ular. :reci$itous &it3<ra&al !!
attractive to a siEable s&at3 of t3e electorate before t3e financial im$losion !! mi-3t &ell become
even more $o$ular &it3 annual &ar bills runnin- in t3e 3un<re<s of billions. :rotectionist
sentiments are sure to -ro& stron-er as Iobs <isa$$ear in t3e comin- slo&<o&n. 2ven before our
current &oes> calls to save Iobs by restrictin- im$orts 3a< be-un to -at3er su$$ort amon- many
,emocrats an< some 6e$ublicans. 0n a $rolon-e< recession> -ale!force &in<s of $rotectionism
&ill blo&. T3en t3ere are t3e <olorous conseGuences of a $otential colla$se of t3e &orl<Ms
financial arc3itecture. 1or <eca<es no&> Americans 3ave enIoye< t3e a<vanta-es of bein- at t3e
center of t3at system. T3e &orl<&i<e use of t3e <ollar> an< t3e stability of our economy> amon-
ot3er t3in-s> ma<e it easier for us to run 3u-e bu<-et <eficits> as &e counte< on forei-ners to
$ic? u$ t3e tab by buyin- <ollar!<enominate< assets as a safe 3aven. 4ill t3is be $ossible in t3e
futureR Mean&3ile> tra<itional forei-n!$olicy c3allen-es are multi$lyin-. T3e t3reat from al
Pae<a an< 0slamic terrorist affiliates 3as not been extin-uis3e<. 0ran an< %ort3 Corea are
continuin- on t3eir bellicose $at3s> &3ile :a?istan an< Af-3anistan are $ro-ressin- smartly
<o&n t3e roa< to c3aos. 6ussiaMs ne& militancy an< C3inaMs seemin-ly relentless rise also -ive
cause for concern. 0f America no& tries to $ull bac? from t3e &orl< sta-e> it &ill leave a
<an-erous $o&er vacuum. T3e stabiliEin- effects of our $resence in Asia> our continuin-
commitment to 2uro$e> an< our $osition as <efen<er of last resort for Mi<<le 2ast ener-y
sources an< su$$ly lines coul< all be $lace< at ris?. 0n suc3 a scenario t3ere are s3a<es of t3e
1L*Ds> &3en -lobal tra<e an< finance -roun< nearly to a 3alt> t3e $eaceful <emocracies faile< to
coo$erate> an< a--ressive $o&ers le< by t3e remorseless fanatics &3o rose u$ on t3e crest of
/FF
economic <isaster ex$loite< t3eir <ivisions. To<ay &e run t3e ris? t3at ro-ue states may c3oose
to become ever more rec?less &it3 t3eir nuclear toys> Iust at our moment of maximum
vulnerability.
/FF
-!us" 'e )resent t!e follo'ing 40A.:
-!e (nited States federal government s!ould
engagement to'ard Cu&a &y fully legaliGing
t!e im)ortation of sugar-&ased et!anol from
Cu&a into t!e (nited States#
/FF
Contention -!ree is Solvency: ,nding t!e em&argo on Cu&an sugarcane
et!anol 'ill esta&lis! a maret t!at allo's t!e industry to sustain itself#
1$ (#S# su))ort for Cu&an sugarcane et!anol 'ould create a &iofuel maret
t!at solves glo&al oil de)endence#
S4,CH-" 13
43ile it is currently im$ossible to blame any sin-le climatolo-ical event on climate c3an-e> even
one as lar-e as a maIor re-ional <rou-3t> scientists 3ave lon- $re<icte< t3at suc3 <rou-3ts as t3e
Mi<&est ex$erience< in 2D12 are t3e ty$e of events t3at &ill result from climate c3an-e. A<<in-
to t3e alrea<y over&3elmin- evi<ence t3at climate c3an-e is occurrin- (an< s3oul< no lon-er be
a matter of <ebate)> 1L* @uly 2D12 &as t3e 3ottest mont3 t3e =nite< States 3as ex$erience< in
11. years of meteorolo-ical recor<s. 1L/ T3e ?ey to 3altin- (or at least slo&in-) climate c3an-e
&ill be to ?ee$ as lar-e an amount as is $ossible of t3e carbon store< in fossil fuels K coal> oil>
an< natural -as K in t3e -roun< an< out of t3e atmos$3ere. 1L5 7y $rovi<in- an alternative to
$etroleum> biofuels can 3el$ to re<uce oil consum$tion an< t3erefore ai< in t3e extremely
im$ortant c3allen-e of ?ee$in- carbon un<er-roun<. As t3e =nite< States faces t3e t&in
c3allen-es of climate c3an-e an< $ea? oil> biofuels must be a $art of t3e solution. o&ever> it is
im$erative t3at $olicies $romotin- biofuels are ca$able of accom$lis3in- t3e =nite< States5
environmental an< ener-y -oals. %eit3er a &3olesale aban<onment of fe<eral involvement in
t3e <evelo$ment of biofuels nor a continuation of t3e corn!centric status Guo is an acce$table
&ay for&ar<. T3e <evelo$ment of a Cuban su-arcane!base< et3anol in<ustry is $art of a
$otential solution. 43et3er t3e former incentives for t3e <omestic et3anol t3at ex$ire< at t3e
en< of 2D11 &ill be revive< by a future 1arm 7ill remains to be seen. 2ven if t3ey are not> as lon-
as t3e =.S. tra<e embar-o a-ainst Cuba continues t3ere &ill be little c3ance of t3at country
ma?in- a substantial investment in t3e <evelo$ment of an entire ne& in<ustry. 0t is
un<erstan<able> for face!savin- reasons> t3at =nite< States $olicy!ma?ers &oul< not consi<er
en<in- t3e <eca<es!lon- tra<e embar-o a-ainst Cuba as lon- as 1i<el Castro remains alive. 1L8
7ut> as soon as $ossible after a -overnmental transition be-ins in Cuba> =nite< States $olicy!
ma?ers s3oul< consi<er ta?in- ste$s to encoura-e t3e creation of suc3 an in<ustry.
/FF
3$ Cu&a%s et!anol industry is dying &ecause of regulations )ut in )lace &y
Castro" &ut t!ere are enoug! natural resources to Euicly restart#
*,(-,*S" 13
(7rian 4ilson> staff &riterA #0nsi-3t: =.S. an< 7raEil ! At last> frien<s on et3anol>' L/12>
3tt$://&&&.reuters.com/article/2D12/DL/1//us!braEil!us!et3anol!i<=S762..,1L52D12DL1/)
CubaMs once!mi-3ty su-ar in<ustry 3as <eteriorate< in recent <eca<es un<er communist rule>
but 6ice =niversity economist 6on Soli-o 3as sai< t3e country 3as t3e $otential to become t3e
&orl<Ms %o. * et3anol $ro<ucer be3in< t3e =nite< States an< 7raEil. 43ile 4as3in-ton 3as 3a<
little <i$lomatic contact &it3 Cuba in t3e $ast five <eca<es> 7raEil 3as a tra<ition of &arm
$olitical an< economic ties &it3 t3e Caribbean nation. :resi<ent ,ilma 6ousseff visite< avana
in @anuary an< s$o?e of 3o& 7raEil can 3el$ Cuba <evelo$ its economy. Bar-e!scale et3anol
$ro<uction 3as been lar-ely taboo in Cuba> in $art because former :resi<ent 1i<el Castro 3as
<enounce< it as a NsinisterN i<ea t3at <rives u$ -lobal foo< $rices. Vet some 7raEilian officials
say t3at stance coul< c3an-e <ramatically once t3e .8!year!ol< lea<er &it3<ra&s from $olitics.
N2verybo<y ?no&s t3at Cuba is an et3anol bonanEa &aitin- to 3a$$en>N sai< a 7raEilian official
&3o reGueste< anonymity. N4eMll be rea<y.N
1$ Most Cu&an agricultural land is not &eing used" so gro'ing sugarcane
'ould not reEuire destroying any !a&itats# 6t is com)aratively safer t!an
(#S# corn or +raGilian sugar#
S4,CH-" 13
Anot3er reason Cuban su-arcane!base< et3anol coul< be one of t3e most environmentally
frien<ly fuels $ossible is t3at Cuba coul< $ro<uce a si-nificant amount of et3anol &it3out any
ne-ative im$acts on native 3abitat. A stri?in- amount of Cuban a-ricultural lan< K fifty five
$ercent as of 2DD; K is sim$ly lyin- fallo& an< is not cultivate< &it3 anyt3in-. 125 Alt3ou-3 its
c3aracter may 3ave c3an-e< <ue to years of ne-lect> t3is lan< is not vir-in native 3abitat li?e t3e
-rasslan<s of %ort3 ,a?ota or t3e Cerra<o of 7raEil. Cuba t3erefore coul< -reatly increase its
$ro<uction of su-arcane> an< t3us its $ro<uction of su-arcane!base< et3anol> &it3out ne-ative
im$acts on &il<life 3abitat. 43ile it is not environmentally $erfect K no form of ener-y is K
Cuban su-arcane!base< et3anol &oul< raise fe&er environmental concerns t3an t3e fuel sources
it &oul< <is$lace: $etroleum> <omestic corn!base< et3anol> an< 7raEilian su-arcane base<
et3anol. T3erefore> from a $urely environmental $ers$ective> c3an-in- =.S. la& an< $olicy in
or<er to $romote t3e im$ortation of Cuban su-arcane!base< et3anol s3oul< be encoura-e<.
/FF
CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 2/C >ar)s :#!$iro!)e!t; #+te!sio!s
/FF
3AC ,xtension Harms H ,nvironment: A>t ?1 @S)ecies Are
*esilientA 178
-!ey say t!at s)ecies loss !as no im)act" &ut # # #
1$ ;rasslands are &eing )lo'ed over for corn fields" '!ic! destroys uniEue
ecosystems and eystone s)ecies# ,very lin in t!e food c!ain is critical and
it is im)ossi&le to )redict '!ic! deat! 'ill trigger t!e domino to'ard total
extinction# -!e negative is asing you to )lay ,nvironmental *ussian
*oulette# ,xtend our D6.,* and S4,CH- evidence#
3$ Damage to t!e grasslands and 'etlands from cornfields is im)ossi&le to
reverse# Once t!e !a&itat is gone" t!e animals are not coming &ac#
S4,CH-" 13
0f &e $rocee< alon- t3e current traIectory &it3out c3an-in- fe<eral $olicies (inclu<in- t3ose
$romotin- corn!base< et3anol)> t3e $rairie $ot3ole ecosystem may be furt3er <e-ra<e< an<
fra-mente<> an< t3e many services it $rovi<es &ill be im$ossible to restore. T3e re-ion &ill no
lon-er be able to su$$ort t3e &aterfo&l c3eris3e< by 3unters an< &il<life ent3usiasts across t3e
country. 9rasslan< bir< $o$ulations> alrea<y <eclinin-> &ill be unable to reboun< as nestin-
sites are turne< into ro& cro$s. 4ater &ill become increasin-ly $ollute< an< costly to clean as
t3e -rasslan<s an< &etlan<s t3at once filtere< contaminants <isa$$ear. 1DD
/FF
3AC ,xtension Harms H ,nvironment: A>t ?3 @Corn is CleanA
179
-!ey say t!at corn )roduction is &ecoming clean# /rong#
1$ Corn itself may &e clean" &ut it%s very dirty to farm# 6t reEuires more
fertiliGer t!an alternative cro)s suc! as soy t!at get re)laced &ecause of
government su))ort for et!anol" and )lo'ing t!roug! fields releases
green!ouse gases t!at are 'orse t!an CO3 for t!e atmos)!ere# -!eir
evidence is 'ritten &y &iased )eo)le in t!e energy industry and corn states
lie 6llinois#
3$ Corn-&ased et!anol reEuires !uge amounts of fossil-fuels for farming as
'ell as )ollution#
S4,CH-" 13
T3e <ebit si<e of t3e <omestic et3anol in<ustry5s climate!c3an-e le<-er be-ins to subtract from
t3e cre<it si<e before t3e corn it uses is even $lante<. #America5s corn cro$ mi-3t loo? li?e a
sustainable> solar!$o&ere< system for $ro<ucin- foo<> but it is actually a 3u-e> inefficient>
$ollutin- mac3ine t3at -uEEles fossil fuel.' 43ile a<vocates for corn $ro<uction &oul< <is$ute
t3is c3aracteriEation of t3e in<ustry as #inefficient' an< #$ollutin->' it is un<eniable t3at
conventional corn $ro<uction tec3niGues use lar-e amounts of climate c3an-e!exacerbatin-
fossil fuels. Conventional (non!or-anic) corn $ro<uction tec3niGues involve annual a$$lications
of fertiliEers an< $estici<es> bot3 lar-ely <erive< from fossil fuels.
1$ Converting corn into et!anol accelerates green!ouse gas emissions#
C+C .,/S" 79
(Ste$3en Strauss> staff e<itorA #1oo< vs. et3anolA' 5/15>
3tt$://&&&.cbc.ca/ne&s/tec3nolo-y/story/2DD./D5/1*/f!strauss!et3anol.3tml)
:articularly &orrisome for 3im is t3e conversion of cro$s li?e corn an< soya into et3anol. T3e
creation of biofuel from t3em &oul< save t3e =nite< States> 2uro$e an< t3e in<ustrialiEe<
countries> Nmore t3an S1/D billion (=.S.) eac3 year> &it3out 3avin- to &orry about t3e
conseGuences for t3e climate an< 3un-er>N &rites Castro. An< 3e is not alone in t3ese &orries. A
recent> muc3!<iscusse< $a$er in t3e Iournal Science calculate< t3at instea< of 2D $er cent
savin-s in carbon emissions comin- from et3anol> t3e c3an-eover &oul< encoura-e $oor
farmers to convert forests an< -rasslan<s to et3anol $ro<uction. An< by t3e $a$erMs aut3orsM
measures> t3at &oul< <ouble -reen3ouse emissions over *D years an< increase -reen3ouse -ases
/FF
for 18; years. 0f corn &as c3an-e< to s&itc3-rass> &3ic3 is even better for $ro<ucin- et3anol>
emissions &oul< -o u$ by 5D $er cent.
/FF
3AC ,xtension Harms H ,nvironment: A>t ?1 @.o -rade-offA
B1>3C 17<
-!ey say t!at )lanting corn doesn%t trade-off 'it! ot!er cro)s" &ut # # #
1$ -!ere a&solutely is a trade-off# -!eir evidence says t!at corn fields are
yielding more corn )roducts" not t!at ot!er cro)s are &eing gro'n in
addition to corn# Our evidence says farmers !ave an economic incentive to
sto) )lanting soy and ot!er cro)s due to su&sidies for corn" '!ic! causes a
trade-off#
3$ Our argument is a&out glo&al corn )roduction# +raGilian et!anol
incentives lead to destroying t!e rainforest to )lant more sugar" releasing
large amounts of car&on and illing valua&le animal s)ecies#
S4,CH-" 13
0f future le-islation <oes not revive t3e =nite< States et3anol tariff t3at ex$ire< at t3e en< of
2D11 an< t3e tra<e embar-o a-ainst Cuba is ?e$t in $lace> 7raEil &ill li?ely be t3e $rimary
beneficiary. T3e ar-ument can be ma<e t3at 7raEilian su-arcane!base< et3anol is a more
environmentally beneficial fuel source t3an <omestic!corn base< et3anol> because of t3e nature
of su-arcane!base< et3anol (<iscusse< belo&). 7raEilian su-arcane!base< et3anol comes>
3o&ever> &it3 its o&n set of environmental conseGuences. T3e full <ebate over t3e
environmental conseGuences of t3e 7raEilian biofuel $ro<uction is lar-ely beyon< t3e sco$e of
t3is Article. Still> t3e $rimary issue in t3is <is$ute is &ort3 notin-> because it accentuates one of
t3e most si-nificant <ifferences bet&een t3e =.S. corn!base< et3anol in<ustry an< t3e $otential
Cuban su-arcane!base< et3anol in<ustry. 0n 7raEil> t3e ex$ansion of su-arcane $ro<uction to
meet <eman< for et3anol $ro<uction 3as le< to lan< use c3an-es t3at $arallel t3e ex$ansion of
corn $ro<uction for et3anol in t3e =nite< States. Clearin- $ortions of t3e AmaEon rainforest K
one of t3e most si-nificant re$ositories of carbon on 2art3 K &oul< re$resent an environmental
cost of et3anol $ro<uction t3at out&ei-3s its benefits. T3e AmaEon re-ion> 3o&ever> is lar-ely
unsuitable for su-arcane $ro<uction. 7ut> su-arcane $ro<uction is contributin- to <estruction
of anot3er sensitive 3abitat> t3e bio!<iverse Cerra<o savanna3 re-ion of 7raEil.
/FF
3AC ,xtension Harms H ,nvironment: A>t ?1 @.o -rade-offA
B3>3C 117
1$ ,ven 'it!out a direct trade-off" corn )roduction !urts 'ater su))lies
t!at are necessary for gro'ing ot!er cro)s#
S4,CH-" 13
0ncrease< &ater consum$tion is anot3er environmental conseGuence resultin- from t3e
ex$ansion of corn $ro<uction in 9reat :lains states. T3e a$$roximate line <ivi<in- t3e $ortion
of t3e =nite< States t3at reGuires irri-ation for a-riculture an< t3e $ortion t3at 3as sufficient
rainfall for non!irri-ate< a-riculture> t3e 1DDt3 Meri<ian 4est of lon-itu<e> 1D1 runs t3rou-3
t3e ,a?otas an< %ebras?a. T3erefore> unli?e a-riculture in t3e states t3at form t3e center of t3e
Corn 7elt> 0o&a an< 0llinois> 1D2 a-riculture in %ebras?a an< t3e ,a?otas <e$en<s to si-nificant
<e-ree u$on irri-ation. T3e <ifference in &ater consum$tion bet&een t3e corn -ro&ers of
%ebras?a> on one 3an<> an< t3ose of 0o&a an< 0llinois> on t3e ot3er> is <ramatic. 0n 2DD;> of
L>1L2>858 acres of total corn $ro<uction in %ebras?a> 5>.*L>D8; acres &ere irri-ate<>
re$resentin- 8*Y of t3e total acrea-e. 1D* T3is fact is $articularly si-nificant because muc3 of
%ebras?a -ets its &ater from t3e J-allala AGuifer> a resource of vital environmental an<
economic im$ortance to t3e =nite< States t3at stretc3es from Texas to Sout3 ,a?ota. 1D/
AGuifers 1D5 continue to $rovi<e &ater as lon- as t3e amount of &ater t3at flo&s into t3em
excee<s t3e amount of &ater t3at is &it3<ra&n. 0f t3e amount of &ater &it3<ra&n from an
aGuifer excee<s t3e amount of &ater t3at rec3ar-es an aGuifer> 3o&ever> t3e aGuifer &ill be
<e$lete<. Com$letely <e$letin- t3e J-allala AGuifer &oul< 3ave <evastatin- conseGuences for
t3e =nite< States. Bosin- t3e ability to irri-ate lan< from t3e J-allala AGuifer &oul< cause S2D
billion &ort3 of a-ricultural losses> an< re!fillin- t3e aGuifer &oul< ta?e 8>DDD years. 1D8
7ecause t3e in<ustry encoura-es increase< corn $ro<uction in areas irri-ate< &it3 &ater from
t3e J-allala AGuifer> t3e <e$letion of t3is aGuifer must be counte< as anot3er <etrimental
environmental effect of t3e <omestic corn!base< et3anol in<ustry.
/FF
3AC ,xtension Harms H ,nvironment: A>t ?4 @Develo)ing
Countries are 5eyA 111
-!ey say t!at C!ina and 6ndia are more ey to glo&al emissions t!an is t!e
(#S#" &ut # # #
1$ C!ina is already 'oring 'it! t!e (#S# to cut &ac emissions#
*,.,/ ,CO.OM:" 11
(6yan Corono&s?i> #=S!C3ina stri?e maIor <eal on cuttin- -reen3ouse -ases>' 8/1D>
3tt$://rene&economy.com.au/2D1*/us!c3ina!stri?e!maIor!<eal!on!cuttin-!-reen3ouse!-ases!
/5//D)
T3e =nite< States an< C3ina announce< on Satur<ay t3at t3ey &ill &or? to-et3er an< &it3 ot3er
countries to #$3ase <o&n' t3e use of 3y<rofluorocarbons (1Cs)> &3ic3 are extremely $otent
-reen3ouse -ases. A -lobal $3aseout &oul< be t3e eGuivalent of cuttin- LD -i-atons of carbon
<ioxi<e emissions by 2D5D. :resi<ent 7arac? Jbama an< :resi<ent ai @in$in- Iust finis3e< a
t&o!<ay meetin- in California initially t3ou-3t to be more of an unscri$te< c3ance for t3e t&o
lea<ers to for-e a $ersonal relations3i$ t3an a meetin- &it3 any s$ecific $olicy a-en<a. T3is is
ai5s first meetin- &it3 Jbama as t3e 9eneral Secretary of t3e C3inese Communist :arty> &3ic3
is t3e analo-ue to t3e C3inese $resi<ency. 6ecently C3ina 3as ma<e ne&s on $lans to cut carbon
emissions but t3en a$$eare< to $artially &al? some of t3at ne&s bac?. T3e fact t3at $o&erful
-reen3ouse -ases &ere on t3e a-en<a <urin- t3eir tal?s is a &elcome si-n. An< if t3e so!calle<
#9rou$ of T&o' re-ularly acts to re<uce t3e use of substances t3at cause climate c3an-e> it
ma?es it muc3 more li?ely t3at t3e rest of t3e &orl< &ill a-ree to <o t3e same.
3$ /e solve land-use issues# Sugarcane from 0atin America is more energy
efficient and environmentally friendly t!an corn#
S4,CH-" 13
T3e environmental benefits of usin- su-arcane to $ro<uce et3anol are numerous. 1irst> it is
muc3 more ener-y efficient to <erive et3anol from su-arcane t3an corn. Ma?in- et3anol from
corn only creates a$$roximately 1.* times t3e amount of ener-y use< to $ro<uce it> but ma?in-
et3anol from su-arcane creates a$$roximately ei-3t times t3e amount of ener-y use< to $ro<uce
it. 118 Secon<> unli?e muc3 of t3e corn $resently -ro&n in 9reat :lains states> su-arcane -ro&n
in Batin America <oes not nee< to be irri-ate<. 11; T3ir<> su-arcane reGuires relatively small
amounts of c3emical fertiliEers> 3erbici<es> an< $estici<es. 11. 1ourt3> &3ereas most =.S.
et3anol refineries are $o&ere< by coal or natural -as> 11L su-arcane et3anol refineries can be
$o&ere< by ba-asse> a natural $ro<uct left over from t3e su-ar refinin- $rocess. 12D 0n fact>
/FF
refineries $o&ere< &it3 ba-asse can even $ro<uce more electricity t3an t3ey nee< an< sell
$o&er bac? to t3e electric -ri<. 121 1ift3> alt3ou-3 corn can only be $lante< an< 3arveste< once
a year> in tro$ical climates su-arcane can be cut from t3e same stal?s multi$le times $er year.
122
CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 2/C >ar)s :#co!o)y; #+te!sio!s
/FF
3AC ,xtension Harms H ,conomy: A>t ? 1 @Mid'est ,conomies
-urnA B1>1C 113
;rou) t!eir 1.C ?1 A and +# -!ey say t!at government su))ort for corn
et!anol is crucial to )ro))ing u) t!e Mid'estern state economies# -!is is a
false claim#
1$ -!eir evidence does not say t!at Mid'est economies are ey to t!e (#S#
economy" only t!at corn is necessary to local economic concerns# Our
evidence is a&out t!e agricultural sector as a '!ole" '!ic! !as &igger
s)illover effects on t!e &roader economy t!at t!e corn-s)ecific industry
does not#
3$ -!e (#S# agricultural industry is already !urting &ecause of decreasing
glo&al demand# 6m)orting sugarcane et!anol 'ill lead to reforms in land
use and energy efficiency t!at increase farm )rofita&ility#
S-A**" 17
(Sean C3arles> @.,. ,e:aul =niversity Sc3ool of Ba&A #S422T 624A6,S: J4 =.S. T6A,2
B0726AB0OAT0J% A%, :2%2T6AT0J% J1 76AO0B0A% 2TA%JB 0%TJ T2 =.S. MA6C2T
CA% ST0M=BAT2 AM260CAMS ,JM2ST0C 2CJ%JMV A%, ST62%9T2% AM260CAS
0%T26%AT0J%AB 0%1B=2%C2>' . ,e:aul 7us. X Comm. B.@. 2;5)
T3e -lobal economic crisis 3as also im$acte< t3e =.S. farm in<ustry. 6ecent =.S. ,e$artment of
A-riculture fi-ures su--est t3e -lobal recession is lo&erin- <eman< ex$ectations an< increasin-
su$$lies> $articularly in terms of =.S. corn -ro&n for et3anol $ro<uction.11* 0nfusion of
7raEilian et3anol into t3e =.S. mar?et coul< foster t3e c3an-e nee<e< by forcin- unfarme< lan<>
subsi<iEe< by t3e -overnment> bac? into <evelo$ment> it coul< motivate American farms
<e<icate< to corn!base< et3anol to restructure an< concentrate on alternatives. 1urt3er> it coul<
$rovi<e American farmers &it3 an alternative an< rene&able ener-y mo<el of $ro<uction.
/FF
-urnA B3>1C 111
1$ Agriculture and meat )roduction are America%s strongest ex)ort" and
sta&ility is ey to economic recovery#
:;0,S6AS" 13
(Matt3e&> SlateMs business an< economics corres$on<entA #o& To Ma?e =.S. A-riculture 2ven
Stron-er>' 8/D.>
3tt$://&&&.slate.com/articles/3ealt3Zan<Zscience/futureZtense/2D12/D8/a-ricultureZin<ustr
yZnee<sZmoreZfarmlan<Zan<ZbetterZimmi-rationZla&sZ.3tml)
America -ot its start as an a-ricultural &on<erlan<> a continent!siEe< ex$anse of free lan< u$ for
-rabs for anyone &it3 t3e -um$tion to sail across t3e ocean an< steal it from t3e 0n<ians. T3e
=nite< States5 -reat 2ast Coast metro$olises arose as ex$ort terminals for t3e a-ricultural
bounty t3is lan< bore. Jur early infrastructure me-a$roIects> canals an< railroa<s> serve< to
furt3er ex$an< t3e sco$e of a-ricultural s3i$$in-> an< t3eir intersections brou-3t us t3e cities of
t3e Mi<&est. An< t3ou-3 America 3as in<ustrialiEe< an< t3en unin<ustrialiEe<> a-riculture
remains a -reat constant of our economy. 6elatively fe& Americans farm to<ay> but t3e muc3!
<eri<e< mainstream commercial a-riculture sector in t3e =nite< States remains a maIor en-ine
of $ro<uctivity an< coul< easily be become stron-er yet. o& $ro<uctive is America5s farm
sectorR +ie&e< in one li-3t> it seems not so im$ressive: T3e 2DDL out$ut eGuale< 1;D $ercent of
1L/. out$ut> for an avera-e annual rate of 1.8* $ercentK&ell belo& t3e economy!&i<e avera-e.
7ut t3e a-ricultural in<ustry &as alrea<y mature in 1L/.> so seems unfair to ex$ect its
$ro<uctivity to increase at t3e same rate as com$uter $ro<uction or Iet air$lane manufacturin-.
43at5s more> $ro<uctivity <erives from multi$le sources. A firm> country> or sector can increase
out$ut by increasin- t3e volume or Guality of in$utsKmore &or?ers> more mac3ines an< ca$ital
-oo<s> more lan< an< ener-yKas &ell as by increasin- t3e efficiency &it3 &3ic3 t3ese in$uts are
use<. An< 3ere5s &3ere America5s farms loo? li?e c3am$ions. Total -ro&t3 in a-ricultural in$uts
&as only D.11 $ercent <urin- t3is $erio<> meanin- t3at almost all t3e -ro&t3 in a-riculture &as
<ue to #total factor $ro<uctivity>' ot3er&ise ?no&n as t3e secret sauce by &3ic3 an in<ustry -ets
more efficient at turnin- in$uts into value. Jne tan-ible si-n of America5s sustaine< a-ricultural
$ro<uctivity is t3at &e are a lar-e net ex$orter of a-ricultural -oo<s. 1armin-> in ot3er &or<s>
stan<s alon-si<e soft&are> me<ia> financial services> tourism> air$lanes> an< military eGui$ment
as one of t3e main t3in-s &e sell to t3e &orl< in exc3an-e for our im$orts of oil an< consumer
-oo<s. T3e lion5s s3are of our ex$ortsKabout S5D billion &ort3 last yearK&ere basic sta$les:
soybeans> corn> &3eat> an< cotton. T3e bi- <estinations for American farm -oo<s are our
nei-3bors in Cana<a an< Mexico> $lus t3e 3un-ry mout3s of lan<!scarce AsiaKC3ina> @a$an>
Sout3 Corea> an< Tai&an. An< risin- livin- stan<ar<s in t3e :acific 6im $romise even more
a-ricultural bounty a3ea<. As $eo$le -et ric3er> t3ey start to &ant to eat more meat. America
ex$orts meat (S12.5 million &ort3 of $or?> beef> an< c3ic?en in 2D11)> but> more to t3e $oint>
our sta$le -rains fee< animals. A co& is essentially a lo&!efficiency> 3i-3!status met3o< of
transformin- -rain into foo< for 3umans> so stea<y -ro&t3 in &orl< <eman< for meat im$lies
enormous -ro&t3 in <eman< for fee< cro$s.
/FF
-urnA B 1 >1C 114
4$ ;overnment funding for corn 'ill )revent any )rice colla)se#
S4,CH-" 13
T3e li?eli3oo< of t3is &orst!case economic scenario <e$en<s on a number of factors. T3e =.S.
et3anol in<ustry> li?e ot3er et3anol in<ustries aroun< t3e &orl<> is lar-ely affecte< by t&o maIor
variables: -overnmental $olicy an< commo<ity $rices. 43ile it 3as not receive< anyt3in- close
to t3e level of su$$ort -rante< to t3e 7raEilian et3anol in<ustry> 1/D t3e =.S. et3anol in<ustry
3as receive< maIor boosts from t3e fe<eral -overnment.
5$ 6nevita&le droug!ts 'ill colla)se t!e domestic corn industry and cause
)rices to syrocet#
S4,CH-" 13
2vents in t3e summer of 2D12 3i-3li-3te< bot3 t3e $otential ris?s of continuin- to center =.S.
biofuels $olicy on <omestic corn $ro<uction an< t3e $otential benefits of $romotin- t3e -ro&t3
of a Cuban su-arcane!base< et3anol in<ustry. 0n t3e summer of 2D12> t3e =.S. Mi<&est
ex$erience< its &orst <rou-3t since 1L58. 1./ 0n t3e mi<<le of Au-ust 2D12> more t3an t&enty!
t&o $ercent of t3e conti-uous =nite< States &as consi<ere< to be in one of t3e t&o most severe
cate-ories of <rou-3t. 1.5 i-3 tem$eratures an< lac? of rain combine< to <evastate
$ro<uctivity of =.S. cro$s> es$ecially corn> /D million acres of &3ic3 &ere in <rou-3t areas. 1.8
Accor<in- to a =S,A re$ort> t3e =.S. corn cro$ of 2D12 &as $roIecte< to be t3e smallest since
2DD8> 1.; <es$ite t3e fact t3at si-nificantly more acres of lan< &ere $lante< &it3 corn in 2D12 as
com$are< to 2DD8. 1.. As a result of antici$ate< lo&er su$$lies> corn $rices s3ot u$ to recor<
levels in t3e summer of 2D12. 1.L 0n res$onse to t3ese 3i-3 $rices> livestoc? $ro<ucers affecte<
by 3i-3 -rain $rices an< ot3ers> inclu<in- members of Con-ress an< four state -overnors> calle<
on t3e Jbama A<ministration to tem$orarily sus$en< t3e 61S> an< t3ereby re<uce $ressure on
commo<ity $rices by t3e et3anol in<ustry. 1LD Criticism of current =.S. et3anol $olicy &as not
limite< to livestoc? $ro<ucers F @oEQ 9raEiano <a Silva> 3ea< of t3e =.%. 1oo< an< A-riculture
Jr-aniEation> also calle< for a tem$orary sus$ension of t3e 61S. 1L1 As critics of =.S. et3anol
$olicy $ointe< out> t3e <rou-3t of 2D12 an< t3e <estruction it inflicte< on corn $ro<uction in t3e
=nite< States s3o& t3e <an-er of relyin- on a sin-le cro$ as a source for fuel $ro<uction.
/FF
3AC ,xtension Harms H ,conomy: A>t ?3 @,t!anol 6sn%t ,noug!A
B1> 1 C 115
-!ey say t!at sugarcane et!anol 'ould never &e a large enoug! industry to
reduce (#S# gasoline consum)tion significantly# -!ey are 'rong again#
1$ /e don%t need to 'in t!at 'e sto) every country from using oil" only t!at
'e )rotect t!e (#S# economy from s!ocs due to (#S# oil use#
3$ ,x)anding (#S# im)ortation of et!anol 'ill immediately s)ur
develo)ment of et!anol-fuel ve!icles" driving u) furt!er demand for
cleaner fuels#
S-A**" 17
J$enin- t3e =.S. mar?ets to 7raEilian et3anol &oul< stren-t3en t3e =.S. economy. 2mbracin-
7raEilian et3anol by eliminatin- or <ecreasin- tariffs an< subsi<ies coul< $rovi<e t3e =.S. &it3
t3e im$etus to refocus its em$3asis on <omestic <evelo$ment of alternative an< rene&able
ener-y mo<els an< t3us inIect t3e =.S. economy &it3 ne& Iob -ro&t3. T3e =.S. built its
re$utation as t3e &orl< su$er$o&er by fosterin- a collective> fun<amental <esire for autonomy
an< <evelo$in- un$arallele< intellectual ca$ital to ac3ieve t3at <esire. T3e =.S. can reboun<
from its &averin- international status an< t3e current economic crisis by relyin- once more on
American self!actualiEation an< innovation. Allo&in- 7raEilMs et3anol into t3e =.S. mar?et &ill
<irectly stimulate t3e =.S. <omestic economy by <rivin- <omestic com$etition an< <evelo$ment
in t&o evolvin- sectors of -reen tec3nolo-y. 1irst> &it3 a sur$lus of affor<able et3anol at t3e
American consumerMs <is$osal> t3e imme<iate nee< for flex!fuel or entirely et3anol fuele<
trans$ortation &oul< $rovi<e a muc3 nee<e< boost to AmericaMs sa--in- automobile in<ustry
&3ile lo&erin- consumer costs at t3e $um$. Secon<ly> an in<ustry!&i<e acce$tance of 7raEilian
et3anol &oul< for-e a ne& stan<ar< for alternative or -reen ener-y in America an< &oul<
conseGuently motivate <evelo$ment of alternative mo<els of non!fossil fuel base< ener-y.
To-et3er> t3is t&o!fol< <evelo$ment &oul< $rovi<e t3e =.S. &it3 imme<iate <omestic economic
stimulation. An unfettere< flo& of 7raEilian su-arcane et3anol &oul< stimulate t3e <omestic
economy by ex$an<in- t3e $ro<uct base of American automobile ma?ers> $rovi<in- Iobs for
Americans <evelo$in- an< buil<in- t3ose $ro<ucts> an< ins$irin- alternative $ro<uct mar?et
com$etition. 4it3 a sur$lus of an available fuel alternative an< t3e reGuisite essentials of su$$ly
an< <eman<> =.S. automa?ers &oul< be 3ar<!$resse< not to focus <evelo$ment efforts on flex!
fuel or all et3anol!base< automobiles. An in<ustry!&i<e em$3asis on <evelo$ment &oul< in
turn create ne& Iobs in <esi-n> <evelo$ment> an< assembly of t3e ne& automobiles. . . .
Allo&in- entrance of 7raEilMs et3anol &oul< motivate American automa?ers to ex$an< t3eir
/FF
$ro<uction base an< <evelo$ automobiles to ta?e a<vanta-e of t3e rea<ily available consumer
alternative &3ile motivatin- t3e -overnment to create t3e $ro$er le-islation to su$$ort t3e
in<ustry.
/FF
B 3 > 1 C 112
1$ Sugarcane et!anol 'ould &ecome a model tec!nology" )roving t!at t!e
maret for clean fuels 'ould &e sustaina&le and )rofita&le#
S-A**" 17
0nvi-oratin- t3e business mo<el of t3e -reen tec3nolo-y in<ustry by ma?in- it $rofitable an<
com$etitive &oul< lo-ically stimulate alternate in<ustry mo<els. 0f consumers an< automa?ers
res$on< o$$ortunistically to one viable source of alternative an< rene&able ener-y> it follo&s
t3at t3ey &oul< res$on< similarly to ot3ers. T3at res$onse coul< be <riven by American
innovation. 43y all t3is 3as yet to occur> stems from many factors inclu<in- a -eneral resistance
to c3an-in- t3e mo<els of consum$tion Americans 3ave -ro&n accustome< to. %o alternative
mo<els of ener-y 3ave $rove< as efficient or en<urin-> nor occu$ie< as muc3 a $lace in
American life as oil. All t3at coul< c3an-e &it3 one exam$le of an economic an< tec3nolo-ical
feasibility alternativeA 7raEilian su-arcane et3anol can be t3at exam$le. T3e mar?et for infusion
an< -ro&t3 is ri$e for suc3 a c3an-eA never in American 3istory 3ave so many <iverse sectors of
t3e $o$ulation> from cor$oration to consumer> been as e<ucate< an< intereste< in alternative
an< rene&able ener-y. 4al!Mart> as emblematic as any American com$any> recently committe<
itself to a com$any!&i<e investment in -reen tec3nolo-ies..* 0nclu<e< in 4al!MartMs $lan is
<oublin- t3e fuel efficiency of its N;>DDD 3u-e Class . truc?s t3at -et about 8 miles $er -allon.N
./ 2ven more critical is 4al!MartMs commitment to increasin- t3e mar?et for -reen tec3nolo-y
by inte-ratin- -reen $ro<ucts on its store s3elves. 4al!Mart a<visor 9lenn :ric?ett of
Conservation 0nternational believes t3is commitment Ncan 3ave a revolutionary im$act on t3e
mar?et for -reen tec3nolo-ies.N.5 Countless ot3er =.S. cor$orations 3ave $ursue< similar
initiatives in recent years. 9eneral Motors recently receive< t3e N2DDL 7est %e& 9reen
Tec3nolo-yN a&ar< at t3e Montreal Auto S3o& for its NT&o!Mo<e ybri< tec3nolo-yN ve3icle
&as calle< Na tremen<ous vali<ation of t3e -reen transformation t3at 3as been un<er &ay at
9eneral Motors>N by Marc Comeau t3e +ice :resi<ent of 9M sales in Cana<a. .8 A Mi<&estern
-rou$ com$ose< of state -overnment officials an< non-overnment or-aniEations are a<vocatin-
for S2 billion out of t3e fe<eral economic stimulus $ac?a-e to su$$ort -reen $roIects t3ey ar-ue
are environmentally frien<ly an< &oul< $ro<uce *D>DDD ne& Iobs..; 2ven t3e airline in<ustry
3as insti-ate< <evelo$ment of -reen tec3nolo-y &it3 Continental Airlines recently re$ortin- t3at
its biofuel testin- on aircraft s3o&e< no ne-ative im$act.. 43at t3is means is t3at =.S.
businesses vie&s -reen tec3nolo-y as a viable in<ustry> one t3at can be ca$italiEe< on &3ile
simultaneously 3el$in- to cut internal costs> $assin- alon- savin-s to customers> an< im$rovin-
t3e cor$orate ima-e by 3el$in- t3e environment.
/FF
B1> 1 C 118
4$ -!ere is a direct trade-off &et'een oil and et!anol use# 6f et!anol
&ecomes com)etitive" it 'ill tae t!e )lace of oil#
S4,CH-" 13
o& im$ortant suc3 -overnmental su$$ort &ill be to t3e survival of t3e <omestic et3anol
in<ustry> 3o&ever> &ill <e$en< on t3e ot3er maIor external factor affectin- t3e et3anol in<ustry:
commo<ity $rices. Accor<in- to one economic analysis> if oil $rices stay at or above S1D5 $er
barrel> even &it3 lo& levels of -overnmental su$$ort> t3e =.S. et3anol in<ustry &ill #move into
3i-3 -ear.' 7esi<es $etroleum $rices> t3e ot3er maIor commo<ity $rice variable &it3 an effect on
American et3anol $ro<uction is t3e $rice of corn. Mar?et con<itions are most favorable for =.S.
et3anol $ro<ucers &3en corn $rices are lo& an< $etroleum $rices are 3i-3> as &as t3e case in
t3e =nite< States bet&een 2DD1 an< 2DD8.1or bot3 $olicy an< mar?et reasons> t3e 2DDDs &ere a
-oo< <eca<e for =.S. et3anol $ro<ucers. 0n t3e first five years of t3at <eca<e> bot3 $ro<uction
an< consum$tion of et3anol <ouble< in t3e =nite< States. 0n 2D12> 3o&ever> corn $rices rose
s3ar$ly as a result of t3at summer5s <rou-3t> re<ucin- $rofitability for et3anol $ro<ucers. T3is
commo<ity $rice s3ift leaves t3e future of <omestic corn!base< et3anol $ro<uction in Guestion.
T3e s3ift &as $articularly <ama-in- because it follo&e< t3e ex$iration of $olicies favorin-
<omestic et3anol $ro<uction at t3e en< of 2D11 an< also because Con-ress 3as yet to $ass a ne&
1arm 7ill.
/FF
3AC ,xtension Harms H ,conomy: A>t ?1 @.o MaretA B1>3C
119
-!ey say t!at t!ere is no international maret for et!anol" &ut # # #
1$ (#S# )olicies 'ill drive u) demand for sugarcane et!anol#
64S" 11
(0nter :ress ServiceA #7raEilian 2t3anol in t3e Slo& Bane to 9lobal Mar?et 7raEilian 2t3anol in
t3e Slo& Bane to 9lobal Mar?et>' 2/1;>
3tt$://-lobal-eo$olitics.net/&or<$ress/2D1*/D2/1;/braEilian!et3anol!in!t3e!slo&!lane!to!
-lobal!mar?et/)
As =.S. consum$tion is nearin- t3at limit> t3e bul? of t3e increase to&ar<s t3e 2D22 tar-et of
1*2.5 billion &ill 3ave to come from cellulosic et3anol F a biofuel from &oo<> -rasses or t3e
ine<ible $arts of $lants> &3ic3 is ne& an< still too costly to $ro<uce! an< from Na<vance<N
biofuels. NA<vance<N or Nsecon< -enerationN biofuels are t3ose $ro<uce< by sustainable
fee<stoc?> &3ic3 are <efine< by availability of t3e fee<stoc?> -reen3ouse -as (99) emission
levels an< bio<iversity an< lan< use im$act. T3e =nite< States 2nvironmental :rotection
A-ency <esi-nate< su-arcane et3anol as an a<vance< biofuel because it lo&ers 99 emissions
by more t3an 5D $ercent as com$are< to -asoline> ta?in- into account t3e full lifecycle of
$ro<uction an< consum$tion> inclu<in- t3e use of lan< to -ro& t3e cro$. T3is <evelo$ment &ill
boost <eman< for et3anol $ro<uce< by 7raEil an< ot3er su-arcane -ro&in- countries> brin-in- it
u$ to 15.1/ million litres by 2D22.
3$ Cu&a !as no domestic need for et!anol fuel" so all of it could &e ex)orted
to t!e (#S# for )urc!ase#
CO.ASO." 9
(@oe> &rites a &ee?ly column for Salon an< t3e %e& Vor? Jbserver> #Jne more -oo< reason to
lift t3e embar-o on Cuba>' ;/1.> 3tt$://&&&.salon.com/o$inion/conason/2DD./D;/1./cuba/)
%o& t3ere is at least one more incentive to c3an-e course. 4it3 its 3u-e $otential for $ro<ucin-
clean> rene&able> su-ar!base< et3anol> Cuba re$resents a si-nificant source of ener-y t3at &ill
remain unavailable to American consumers unless &e un<o t3e embar-o. A-ricultural ex$erts
3ave estimate< t3at Cuba coul< eventually $rovi<e more t3an * billion -allons of fuel annually>
$er3a$s even more &3en ne& tec3nolo-ies for extractin- ener-y from su-ar cane &aste (?no&n
as #ba-asse') come online K $lacin- t3e islan< t3ir< in &orl< et3anol $ro<uction> be3in< t3e
=.S. an< 7raEil. 9iven t3e relatively small <eman< for auto fuel in Cuba> nearly all of t3at
et3anol &oul< be available for ex$ort to its nearest nei-3bor.
/FF
3AC ,xtension Harms H ,conomy: A>t ?1 @.o MaretA B3>3C
11<
1$ -!e sugarcane et!anol industry can &e ra)idly re&ooted 'it! guidance
from t!e (#S# and su))ort for maret access#
*,(-,*S" 13
Su-ar cane> t3e main source of et3anol ma<e in 7raEil> alrea<y -ro&s in many of t3e countries
seen as $otential $ro<ucers of t3e biofuel. Cane $ro<uces more ener-y t3an it consumes <urin-
t3e et3anol!ma?in- $rocess> unli?e corn> t3e basis for =.S. et3anol. ome-ro&n et3anol 3ol<s
obvious a$$eal for small> $oor countries t3at im$ort most of t3eir ener-y at enormous costs.
on<uras> for exam$le> s$ent S2.1 billion ! 12 $ercent of its -ross <omestic $ro<uct ! on fuel
im$orts in 2D11. o&ever> $ro<ucers an< ot3er investors -enerally refuse to buil< et3anol mills
an< ot3er infrastructure unless t3ey 3ave a -uarantee< <omestic mar?et. NAn< im$lementation
of t3at frame&or? -ets to be very tec3nical an< <ifficult>N =nicaMs Cutas sai<. Jne exam$le: 0n
t3e 1L.Ds> 9uatemala $asse< a la& man<atin- a blen< of et3anol in -asoline but 3as rarely
enforce< it because of bottlenec?s t3at inclu<e a se$arate la& ca$$in- t3e amount of t3e su-ar
cane cro$ t3at can be use< for biofuels. To resolve suc3 $roblems> t3e 7raEilian an< =.S.
-overnments 3ave 3el$e< finance an< $ro<uce stu<ies of t3e countriesM ability to create an<
sustain et3anol $ro<uction. on<uras> 9uatemala an< 2l Salva<or are &3ere t3e most $ro-ress
3as been ma<e> <i$lomats say.
/FF
3AC ,xtension Harms H ,conomy: A>t ?4 @,conomy is *esilientA
137
-!ey say t!at t!e (#S# economy is resilient" &ut # # #
1$ ,ven if t!e economy eventually recovers" our im)act is a&out t!e )olitical
conseEuences of t!e initial severe do'nturn# ,xtend our =*6,D+(*; A.D
SCHO,.=,0D evidence#
3$ -!e neg evidence is not credi&le# 6t Euotes an em)loyee of t!e =ederal
*eserve '!o !as an incentive to say t!e economy is resilient &ecause it
maes !im loo &etter at !is Io&# -!ere is no 'arrant or !istorical data to
su))ort t!is claim#
1$ Oil )rice fluctuations mae every )roduct more ex)ensive &y increasing
total industry costs and stunting gro't!s# -!is causes s)iraling loan
failures and economic colla)se#
;A;A." 17
(@o3n> MaIor in =S ArmyA #T2 =%0T2, STAT2S5 ST6AT290C 0%S2C=60TV!T2 J0B
%2a=S>' 3tt$://&&&.<tic.mil/c-i!bin/9etT6,ocRA,bA,A5*1222)
i-3 im$orte< oil costs &ere not t3e sin-le source of t3e -lobal recession> but t3ey certainly may
3ave contribute< to it. T3e 0nternational 2ner-y A-ency su--ests t3e ra$i< increase in $rice of
cru<e oil from 2DD* to 2DD. $laye< an im$ortant> #albeit> secon<ary' role in t3e recession. i-3
oil $rices stunt economic -ro&t3. T3e <oublin- of oil $rices from 2DD* to 2DD5 lo&ere< -lobal
economic out$ut by 1.5 $ercent or S;5D billion (6o-off 2DD5). 6ic3ar< einber- ma?es an
interestin- ar-ument for t3e effects of oil <e$en<ency on t3e economy t3rou-3 $3ysical an<
financial terms. is $remise maintains t3at t3e =.S. financial system &as built u$on constant
-ro&t3 <erive< from am$le available ener-y sources (oil) &it3 t3e assum$tion t3at -ro&t3 &as
#inevitable an< <esirable.' A ?ey conce$t an< com$onent of t3e American financial institution is
base< on com$oun< interest> &3ere money is create< from loans an< re$resents <ebt. T3e
money to re$ay loans is -enerate< from $ro<uction -ro&t3 an< $ro<uctivity. 0f $ro<uction
-ro&t3 an< $ro<uctivity are stifle< <ue to exorbitant $rices of ener-y (oil)> fe&er -oo<s &ill be
$ro<uce<> less consum$tion of t3ose -oo<s &ill occur> an< loans cannot be re!$ai<. 0n t3is case>
ne& loans must be ta?en out to re!$ay ol< loans. 0f t3ere are more loans out t3an t3e rate of
economic $ro<uction or -ro&t3 an< consum$tion> inflation &ill occur. More businesses ta?in-
out fe&er loans <ue to lo&er <eman< coul< initiate a vicious economic tails$in resultin- in an
economic im$losion all <ue to a net ener-y <ecline.
/FF
3AC ,xtension Solvency H A>t ?1 @.o 4olitical /illA 131
-!ey say t!at t!e )lan 'on%t create a maret for Cu&an et!anol" &ut # # #
1$ (#S# )ressure and guidance 'ill create )olitical 'ill &y esta&lis!ing a
maret and guaranteed demand for Cu&an et!anol# Money 'ill convince
*aul Castro to invest# ,xtend our *,(-,*S evidence#
3$ *aul Castro is 'illing to invest in moderniGing Cu&a%s et!anol industry#
/6*,D" 79
(C3uc? SGuatri-lia> #4it3 1i<el 9one> 4ill Cuba 7ecome a 9lobal 2t3anol :layerR' 2/1L>
3tt$://&&&.&ire<.com/cars/ener-y/ne&s/2DD./D2/cubaZet3anol)
Jf course> reac3in- eit3er of t3ose numbers &oul< reGuire 6aul Castro to o$en t3e <oor to
forei-n investment> but t3at may not be as unli?ely as it soun<s. T3e 4as3in-ton :ost notes
t3ereMs s$eculation t3at 1i<elMs exit o$ens t3e <oor to economic reform li?e &eMve seen in C3ina>
an< itMs &ort3 notin- Cuba is Guietly mo<erniEin- its et3anol infrastructure. 6aul Castro is seen
as a $ra-matist &3o is more concerne< &it3 im$rovin- CubansM <aily lives t3an s$rea<in- la
revoluciUn> an< accor<in- to 6euters 3e is believe< to favor loosenin- state control on CubaMs
economy. T3e country 3as sai< it &oul< allo& forei-n investment in its tourism in<ustry.
1$ ,ven if Cu&a is not )roducing sugarcane for et!anol no'" t!ey could
easily ram) u) )roduction#
S4,CH-" 13
To s$ea? of a Cuban su-arcane!base< et3anol in<ustry is> at t3is $oint> lar-ely a matter of
s$eculation. /8 7ecause of t3e anti!et3anol vie&s of 1i<el Castro (&3o 3as sai< t3at et3anol
s3oul< be <iscoura-e< because it <iverts cro$s from foo< to fuel)> Cuba currently 3as almost no
et3anol in<ustry. 0n t3e &or<s of 6onal< Soli-o an< Amy Myers @affe of t3e 7roo?in-s
0nstitution> #,es$ite t3e fact t3at Cuba is <e$en<ent on oil im$orts an< is a&are of t3e
<emonstrate< success of 7raEil in usin- et3anol to ac3ieve ener-y self!sufficiency> it 3as not
embar?e< on a $olicy to <evelo$ a lar-er et3anol in<ustry from su-arcane.' T3ere is> 3o&ever>
no reason &3y suc3 an in<ustry cannot be <evelo$e<. As Soli-o an< @affe &rote> #0n a<<ition>
Cuba 3as lar-e lan< areas t3at once $ro<uce< su-ar but no& lie i<le. T3ese coul< be revive< to
$rovi<e a basis for a &orl<!class et3anol in<ustry. 4e estimate t3at if Cuba ac3ieves t3e yiel<
levels attaine< in %icara-ua an< 7raEil an< t3e area $lante< &it3 su-arcane a$$roac3es levels
seen in t3e 1L;Ds an< 1L.Ds> Cuba coul< $ro<uce u$ to 2 billion -allons of su-ar!base< et3anol
$er year.'
/FF
/FF
3AC ,xtension Solvency H A>t ?3 @+ad +usiness ClimateA B1>3 C
133
-!ey say t!at Cu&a%s anti-&usiness climate 'ill )revent a Cu&an et!anol
industry from gro'ing" &ut # # #
1$ *aul Castro is im)lementing reforms to o)en u) t!e economy and
increase agricultural efficiency#
0(;A*" <
(6ic3ar<> 6e$ublican C3air of Senate 1orei-n 6elations Committee> #CA%90%9 C=7A
:JB0CV!!0% T2 =%0T2, STAT2S %AT0J%AB 0%T262ST>' 2/2*>
3tt$://&&&.fas.or-/ir$/con-ress/2DDLZr$t/cuba.3tml)
%evert3eless> since officially assumin- t3e $resi<ency in early 2DD.> 6aul Castro 3as intro<uce<
a series of mo<est reforms t3at are re-ar<e< on t3e islan< as a <e$arture from t3e ort3o<ox
$olicies of 3is lon-!rulin- brot3er> 1i<el Castro. 1or exam$le> Cubans may no& $urc3ase cell
$3ones an< com$uters an< stay at 3otels $reviously reserve< for forei-ners> t3ou-3 t3e vast
maIority of t3e $o$ulation cannot affor< to ta?e a<vanta-e of t3ese reforms. T3e 9JC is
-rantin- ne& licenses to $rivate taxi <rivers> &3o set t3eir o&n $rices> for t3e first time in a
<eca<e. Most si-nificantly> $rivate farmers are no& $ermitte< to $urc3ase t3eir o&n eGui$ment>
an< t3e -overnment is $rocee<in- &it3 a $lan to 3an< over unuse< state lan<s to $rivate farmers
an< coo$eratives un<er lon-!term leases> inclu<in- more t3an /5>5DD lan< -rants a$$rove< in
1ebruary 2DDL. 6aul Castro 3as re$eate<ly ac?no&le<-e< t3e nee< to increase efficiency an<
$ro<uction> $articularly in t3e a-ricultural sector> an< 3is <ecisions 3ave <emonstrate< a
&illin-ness to im$lement some reforms at a -ra<ual $ace> t3ou-3 it is not clear &3et3er t3ey &ill
lea< to structural c3an-e.
3$ Cu&a !as t!ousands of silled and unsilled 'orers '!o could
transition Euicly to sugarcane et!anol )roduction#
4A-6.O" 7<
(C3ristian Santia-o> a&ar<e< Secon< :riEe in t3e ASC2 2DDL Stu<ent :riEe Com$etition for
un<er-ra<uate stu<entsA #T2 C=7A% S=9A6 ,0B2MMA: T2 :6JS:2CT 1J6 A 9622%
1=T=62' 3tt$://&&&.ascecuba.or-/$ublications/$rocee<in-s/volume1L/$<fs/$atino.$<f)
0t 3as been s3o&n above t3at Cuba $ossesses t3e i<eal lan< an< climate for t3e $ro<uction of
su-arcane. T3ese con<itions are com$lemente< by Cuba5s rea<ily available an< 3i-3ly
ex$erience< labor force. 2stimates su--est t3at before t3e area un<er su-arcane cultivation &as
<o&nsiEe< t3ere &ere /8D>DDD &or?ers <irectly em$loye< by t3e su-ar a-roin<ustry sector
(:QreE!BU$eE 2L.). T3e vast maIority of t3ese &or?ers &ere un$rofessional laborers t3at coul<
be easily s3ifte< bac? to t3e 3arvestin- of su-arcane for et3anol factories. 7ut> it is also
im$ortant to $oint out t3at Cuba also $ossesses many 3i-3ly s?ille< &or?ers an< researc3ers
/FF
t3at coul< run an< oversee Cuba5s $ros$ective et3anol sector. T3e fact t3at su-arcane 3as
3istorically been t3e islan<5s main cro$ si-nificantly favors et3anol $ro<uction in Cuba.
/FF
3AC ,xtension Solvency H A>t ?3 @+ad +usiness ClimateA B3>3C
1 31
1$ (#S# incentives for sugar-cane et!anol develo)ment in Cu&a 'ill )us! t!e
country to'ard democracy and maret-economies#
A.D,*S,." 8
(Martin 2<&in> lon-!time 3uman ri-3ts activist an< ne&s corres$on<ent in Batin America> is t3e
e<itor of a =nite< States A-ency for 0nternational ,evelo$ment (=SA0,) stu<y on $ossible
electoral transitions in CubaA #S&eet J$$ortunity: 2t3anol an< a 9ran< 7ar-ain for Cuban
,emocracy>' D8/D/> 3tt$://&&&.offne&s.info/verArticulo.$3$Rconteni<o0,b.D;5)
0n fact> :resi<ent 7us35s ne& bio!fuels $act &it3 7raEil> Ioinin- t3e &orl<Ms t&o lar-est et3anol
$ro<ucers in &3at coul< become a ne& alliance to substantially re<uce re-ional <e$en<ence on
im$orte< oil> $oints to ot3er et3anol!relate< $olicy o$tions t3e =nite< States s3oul< $ursue in
t3e re-ion simultaneously. 0f im$lemente<> t3ese &oul< im$rove t3e $ros$ects for $ost!1i<el
<emocracy an< in<e$en<ence in Cuba> re<uce future tensions bet&een Cubans an< Cuban
Americans> an< ease future relations bet&een t3e =.S. an< some of its ot3er Caribbean allies.
T3e frame&or? for Iust suc3 a $ossibility alrea<y exists in t3e $lan launc3e< by 7us3 an<
7raEilian :resi<ent BuiE 0nTcio Bula <a Silva to $romote t3e $ro<uction of su-ar cane!base<
et3anol in Central American an< t3e Caribbean> sellin- $art of t3e bio!fuel to t3e =.S. as $art of
a s$ecial Caribbean 7asin tra<e re-ime. 7y $romisin- to inclu<e Cuba in a $artners3i$ t3at
allo&s su-arcane!base< et3anol eGual footin- in com$etition &it3 a 3eavily subsi<iEe< corn!
base< et3anol in<ustry in t3e =nite< States t3at is bot3 more ex$ensive an< more
environmentally taxin-> Castro5s claim t3at t3e =.S. focus on et3anol> resultin- in t3e
#internationaliEation of -enoci<eN can be ex$ose< from &3at it isKt3e <eat3 rattle of a tyrant. c
6eal Cuban 0n<e$en<ence. Creative bi$artisans3i$ in 4as3in-ton t3at ties t3e $otential of a
massive boom in et3anol5s influence t3rou-3out t3e 3emis$3ere to en<in- =nite< States oil
a<<iction coul< also 3el$ ensure t3at nearly five <eca<es of Cuban <ictators3i$ &ill be follo&e<
by a transition to&ar<s <emocracy> a mar?et economy an< real in<e$en<ence> an< not
succession by 3is brot3er 6aul or anot3er Communist fi-ure.
/FF
3AC ,xtension Solvency H A>t ?1 @+raGil Solves 6nvestmentA
1 34
-!ey say t!at +raGil 'ill &e more influential over t!e Cu&an et!anol
industry t!an t!e (#S# can &e" &ut # # #
1$ -!e (#S# !as t!e largest glo&al maret for )urc!asing et!anol and is
closer to Cu&a )!ysically t!an +raGil" meaning t!e maret is more secure
'it! less ris# -!eir evidence feeds our solvency" &ecause +raGil is )utting
)olitical )ressure on Cu&a '!ile t!e (#S# 'ill tae care of t!e economic
)ressure# ,xtend our *,(-,*S evidence#
3$ (#S# et!anol )roducers are looing to esta&lis! ties 'it! 0atin American
et!anol leaders" '!ic! 'ill solve )ressure#
*,(-,*S" 13
6esults may still be years a&ay> but officials say t3e collaboration mi-3t breat3e some ne& life
into an in<ustry facin- an uncertain future because of c3ronic $ro<uction s3ortfalls an< <oubts
about t3e environmental benefits of many biofuels. N0 t3in? t3ereMs a clear sense no& t3at &e
s3oul< be collaboratin- instea< of fi-3tin- eac3 ot3er>N sai< Terry 7ransta<> -overnor of 0o&a>
t3e to$ =.S. et3anol!$ro<ucin- state. After a @uly meetin- &it3 senior officials in 7raEil> N0 &as
very encoura-e< by &3at 0 3ear<>N 3e sai< in an intervie&. NT3e more &e coo$erate> t3e more &e
can -ro& t3e &orl<&i<e <eman< for &3at &e $ro<uce.N :linio %astari> t3e 3ea< of res$ecte<
7raEilian su-ar analysis firm ,ata-ro> sai< 3e &as $articularly encoura-e< by t3e Ioint efforts to
<evelo$ a<<itional et3anol $ro<ucers.

0#1
Cu&a ,t!anol .egative 1 35
1%C 1rontline: arms F 2nvironment........................................................................................128
2%C 2xtension arms F 2nvironment "1 #S$ecies are 6esilient'..............................................12L
2%C 2xtension arms F 2nvironment "2 #Corn is Clean'.........................................................1*D
2%C 2xtension arms F 2nvironment "* #%o Cro$ Tra<e!off'.................................................1*1
2%C 2xtension arms F 2nvironment "/ #,evelo$in- Countries are Cey'..............................1*2
1%C 1rontline: arms F 2conomy.............................................................................................. 1**
2%C 2xtension arms F 2conomy "1 #Mi<&est 2conomies Turn'............................................1*8
2%C 2xtension arms F 2conomy "2 #2t3anol 0sn5t 2nou-3'..................................................1*;
2%C 2xtension arms F 2conomy "* #%o Mar?et'...................................................................1*.
2%C 2xtension arms F 2conomy "/ #2conomy is 6esilient'...................................................1*L
1%C 1rontline F Solvency............................................................................................................ 1/D
2%C 2xtension Solvency ! "1 #%o :olitical 4ill'.........................................................................1/2
2%C 2xtension Solvency ! "2 #7a< 7usiness Climate'................................................................1/*
2%C 2xtension Solvency ! "* #7raEil Solves 0nvestment'...........................................................1//
CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 10C >ar)s :#!$iro!)e!t; Fro!tli!e
0#1
1.C =rontline: Harms H ,nvironment 1 32
1$ .o im)act to s)ecies loss H surviving s)ecies 'ill ada)t#
=O*+,S" 13
(+iv> C3air$erson of T3e Carbon Sense Coalition> former -uest &riter for t3e Asian 4all Street
@ournal> 7usiness Pueenslan< an< minin- ne&s$a$ersA' S$ecies 2xtinction is %ot3in- %e&>'
8/D/> 3tt$://&&&.cana<afree$ress.com/in<ex.$3$/articles!ne&s//;D.8. 8///12)
As t3e -lobal &armin- bubble <eflates> anot3er scare is bein- inflate< F s$ecies extinction.
%aturally t3e $rofessional alarmists $resent t3is as a bran< ne& t3reat> cause< by man5s
in<ustry. o&ever> s$ecies extinction> li?e climate c3an-e> is t3e &ay of t3e &orl<. 0t &as not
carbon <ioxi<e t3at entombe< millions of mammot3s an< ot3er animals in muc?y ice from
0celan< to Alas?a. 0t &as not steam en-ines t3at &i$e< out t3e <inosaurs an< ;5Y of ot3er
s$ecies &3o 3a< <ominate< t3e 2art3 for 1.D million years. T3ere &ere no 3umans to blame for
t3e 9reat :ermian 2xtinction &3en over LDY of all life on 2art3 &as <estroye< F animals>
$lants> trees> fis3> $lan?ton even al-ae <isa$$eare< su<<enly. Sa<ly> 3istory s3o&s t3at it is t3e
<estiny of most s$ecies to be <estroye< by $erio<ic natural calamities or com$etition from ot3er
s$ecies. 2art35s 3istory is a movin- $icture> not a still life. %o s$ecies 3as an assure< $lace on
2art3. Some s$ecies can a<a$t an< survive F t3ose unable to a<a$t are remove< from t3e -ene
$ool. 2art35s $erio<ic s$ecies extinctions are usually associate< &it3 &i<es$rea< -laciation>
volcanism> eart3 movements an< solar <isru$tions. Most -eolo-ical eras 3ave close< &it3 suc3
calamitous events. 6an<om an< more localise< s$ecies extinctions are cause< by ro-ue comets.
7ut -lobal &armin- an< abun<ant carbon <ioxi<e 3ave never feature< as causes of mass
extinctions. 7ecause of 2art35s lon- turbulent 3istory> most s$ecies survivin- to<ay are not
#fra-ile'. 2very one of t3em> inclu<in- 3umans> is <escen<e< from a lon- line of survivors -oin-
bac? to t3e be-innin-s of life on 2art3.
3$ Corn )roduction tec!nology is &ecoming cleaner#
M(,00,* A.D 5/65" 11
(Steffen> :3.,. =niversity of 0llinois at C3ica-oA @o3n> ,ominion 2ner-y ServicesA #2D12 Corn
2t3anol: 2mer-in- :lant 2ner-y an< 2nvironmental Tec3nolo-ies' //2L>
3tt$://et3anolrfa.or-/$a-e/!/:,1s/2D12Y2DCornY2D2t3anolY2D10%AB.$<fRnoc<nb1)
T3e stu<y s3o&s t3at at t3e bio!refinery level mo<ern ener-y an< $rocessin- tec3nolo-ies suc3
as so$3isticate< 3eat inte-ration> combine< 3eat an< $o&er tec3nolo-ies> variable freGuency
<rives> a<vance< -rin<in- tec3nolo-ies> various combinations of front an< bac? en< oil
se$aration> an< innovative et3anol an< ,,9 recovery 3ave furt3er re<uce< t3e ener-y foot$rint
of t3e corn et3anol $ro<uction $rocess. Jur &or? inclu<es an assessment of over 5DY of
o$eratin- <ry -rin< corn et3anol $lants. Jn avera-e> 2D12 <ry -rin< $lants $ro<uce et3anol at
3i-3er yiel<s &it3 lo&er ener-y in$uts t3an 2DD. corn et3anol. 1urt3ermore> si-nificantly more
corn oil is se$arate< at t3e $lants no& &3ic3 combine< &it3 t3e 3i-3er et3anol yiel<s results in
a sli-3t re<uction in ,,9 $ro<uction an< a ne-li-ible increase in electricity consum$tion. %ote
0#1
t3at t3is assessment is a sna$s3ot across all et3anol $lant tec3nolo-ies> co$ro<uct <ryin-
$ractices> an< -eo-ra$3ic locations. T3e table belo& summariEes t3e results.
0#1
1$ 4lanting corn does not trade off 'it! ot!er cro)s &ecause corn
fertiliGation is efficient enoug! to )rovide additional cro) yields#
M(,00,* A.D 5/65" 11
T3e stu<y also loo?s at ne& tec3nolo-ies t3at 3ave recently been a<o$te< an< furt3er increase
t3e efficiency <urin- t3e corn $ro<uction $3ase of t3e corn et3anol $at3&ay. 1or exam$le> over
t3e last several years 3i-3er corn yiel<s 3ave also increase< t3e amount of corn stover an<
a<<itional $lant material $ro<uce< by mo<ern 3ybri<s. As a result -ro&ers 3ave starte< to
remove corn stover for use as animal fee< in nearby fee<lot o$erations. ConseGuently> acres
$ro<ucin- corn for et3anol an< ,,9 animal fee< no& also $ro<uce a secon< animal fee< at t3e
front en< of t3e $rocess in t3e form of stover fee<. Jt3er efficiency im$rovements <urin- t3e
corn $ro<uction $3ase inclu<e more accurate an< tar-ete< <elivery of c3emicals an< a-ricultural
in$uts> as &ell as corn 3ybri<s t3at contain enEymes resultin- in re<uce< $rocessin- ener-y an<
increase< et3anol yiel<s at t3e biorefinery level.
0#1
4$ Develo)ing economies lie C!ina and 6ndia are more ey to emissions
t!an t!e (#S#
D(--A A.D *AD.,*" 13
(:raIit> :rofessor of 2conomics at Columbia =niversityA 6oy> :rofessor of 7usiness at %e& Vor?
=niversityA #Ca$ital -ro&t3 in a -lobal &armin- mo<el: &ill C3ina an< 0n<ia si-n a climate
treatyR' 3tt$://$a-es.stern.nyu.e<u/`rra<ner/$ublis3e<$a$ers2/11*Ca$ital9ro&t32D12.$<f)
9lobal climate c3an-e (CC) 3as emer-e< as t3e most im$ortant environmental issue of our
times an<> ar-uably> t3e one &it3 t3e most critical lon-!run im$ort. T3e observe< rise in
tem$eratures an< variability of climateKt3e 3ot summers in 2uro$e an< t3e =nite< States> t3e
increase< freGuency of storms an< 3urricanes inclu<in- Catrina> t3e meltin- of t3e $olar ice!
ca$s an< -laciers on Asian mountain!to$s t3reatenin- to <ry t3e rivers t3at &ater t3at continent>
t3e rise in sea levelsK3ave all $lace< t3e $roblem center!sta-e. Since t3e climate c3an-e
$roblem involves a classic #commons' t3at irres$ective of t3e source of -reen3ouse -as
emissions it is t3e common stoc? of it t3at affects t3e -lobal climate> it can only be solve< by an
international effort at reac3in- a-reement. 1or suc3 an a-reement to -et carrie< out> 3o&ever> it
3as to ali-n t3e incentives of t3e si-natory nations so t3at countries &ill> in fact> carry out t3eir
$romises. At t3e same time> to meanin-fully contain emissions an a-reement 3as to be si-ne< by
all t3e maIor emittin- countries> bot3 <evelo$e< an< <evelo$in-> an< t3ey 3ave to commit to
$ossibly <ee$ cuts in emissions no& an< in t3e future. 0n ot3er &or<s for an a-reement to be
effective> it 3as to balance t&o com$etin- forcesKlar-e enou-3 cuts t3at ma?e a <ifference to t3e
climate t3at are yet #small enou-3' t3at countries &ill not c3eat on t3eir $romises. An< 3erein
lies t3e rub. Since emissions are tie< to economic activity> countries t3at are -ro&in- t3e fastest>
suc3 as C3ina an< 0n<ia> are reluctant to si-n onto emission cuts t3at t3ey fear &ill com$romise
t3eir -ro&t3. T3ey $oint> moreover> to t3e #le-acy effect' t3at t3e vast maIority of existin-
-reen3ouse -as stoc? &as accumulate< in t3e last 1DD years <ue to t3e in<ustrialiEation of t3e
4estKan< t3e $er ca$ita numbersK t3at $er $erson t3eir citiEens contribute a fraction of t3e
$er ca$ita emissions from t3e =nite< States an< t3e 2uro$ean =nion. T3ey ar-ue> t3erefore>
t3at t3ey s3oul< not be as?e< to clean u$ a $roblem not of t3eir ma?in-. Jn t3e ot3er 3an<>
leavin- t3ese countries out of a climate c3an-e treaty is sim$ly not -oin- to solve t3e $roblem
since t3eir -ro&t3 $at3 of emissions is 3i-3> C3ina5s total emissions are alrea<y on $ar &it3 t3e
=nite< States an< unless t3e emissions of t3e <evelo$in- &orl< are re<uce< t3ey &ill ra$i<ly
out!stri$ t3ose of to<ay5s <evelo$e< economies an< ma?e it im$ossible to solve t3e climate
c3an-e $roblem.
CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 20C/10R >ar)s :#!$iro!)e!t;
#+te!sio!s
0#1
3.C ,xtension Harms H ,nvironment ?1 @S)ecies are *esilientA
1 3<
Off of 1.C ?1 @S)ecies extinction !as no im)act"A grou) t!e 3AC res)onses#
1$ S)ecies loss !a))ens all t!e time" and @eystone s)eciesA are a myt!
&ecause surviving s)ecies are forced to ada)t and &ecome stronger# ,xtend
our =O*+,S evidence#
3$ Ha&itats are not uniEuely critical to &iodiversity# /eat!er )atterns mae
survival random#
-O.." 8
(7ruce> ,e$artment of :olitical Science> 2nvironmental Sciences ,ivision> =niversity of
TennesseeA 11/D1> 3tt$://&&&.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summaryZD2.8!**2851D;Z0TM)
0t s3oul< be clear> t3ou-3> t3at $rotectin- bio<iversity <oes not mean t3at it is necessary t3at t3e
status Guo of all ecosystems on eart3 be maintaine<. Ta?en literally> t3at is an im$ossible -oal
because t3ere &ill al&ays be fluctuations in s$ecies $o$ulations if only <ue to annual c3an-es in
&eat3er an< $reci$itation.
1$ Our argument su&sumes t!eir s)ecific s)ecies loss scenario# Our
)osition is t!at all s)ecies losses are not )articularly im)ortant H t!at
ada)tation and &ac-u) s)ecies solves any )articular loss#

#+te!sio!s
0#1
3.C ,xtension Harms H ,nvironment ?3 @Corn is CleanA 1 17
Off of 1.C ?3 @Corn )roduction is getting cleaner"A grou) t!e 3AC
res)onses#
1$ Corn )roduction tec!niEues are &ecoming more efficient" )roducing
more corn and using less land# -!is taes out t!eir internal lin &ecause if
less land is needed and fe'er )ollutants are )roduced" t!e domestic corn
industry is not res)onsi&le for climate c!ange# ,xtend our M(,00,* A.D
5/65 evidence#
3$ Don%t trust t!eir evidence H ot!er studies of corn )roduction are
outdated and do not assume ne' tec!nologies#
M(,00,* A.D 5/65" 11
2ner-y consum$tion an< a<vance< $ro<uction tec3nolo-ies of corn et3anol are a to$ic of
consi<erable interest since t3ese factors constitute im$ortant in$uts into environmental mo<els
t3at com$are <ifferent fuel alternatives. T3e last com$re3ensive assessment of et3anol $lant
ener-y tec3nolo-ies an< t3eir a<o$tion rates <ates bac? to 2DD.. Since t3en et3anol $lants 3ave
continue< to im$rove t3eir $rocesses in an effort to re<uce ener-y costs> tar-et s$ecific co
$ro<uct mar?ets> an< im$rove t3eir environmental $erformance. 1urt3ermore> emer-in-
a-ronomic tec3nolo-ies are bein- ra$i<ly a<o$te< t3at re<uce t3e environmental foot$rint of
t3e et3anol $ro<uction $at3&ay. T3e recent a<o$tion of ener-y savin- tec3nolo-ies as &ell as
a<vance< $rocessin- tec3nolo-ies 3as also been su$$orte< by ne& fun<in- sources inclu<in-
A66A -rant money> State 6ene&able :ortfolio Stan<ar<s> an< ot3er state an< fe<eral ener-y
efficiency -rants.
#+te!sio!s
0#1
3.C ,xtension Harms H ,nvironment ?1 @.o Cro) -rade-offA
1 11
Off of 1.C ?1 @.o cro) trade-off"A grou) t!e 3AC res)onses#
1$ Corn fertiliGation allo's for additional cro)s to &e )lanted during corn
season" meaning t!ere is no need to re)lace ot!er cro)s# Also" corn can
)roduce multi)le useful )arts so t!at no food is destroyed in t!e )rocess of
develo)ing et!anol# ,xtend our M(,00,* A.D 5/65 evidence#
3$ Corn use num&ers are !y)ed H t!e (#S# used mostly filler cro)s or
et!anol &y-)roducts for animal feed and ot!er uses instead of ra' corn#
*,(-,*S" 13
(9erar< 4ynnA #CJB=M%!=.S. use of corn for et3anol is 3i-3 but 3y$e<: 4ynn' D./D.>
3tt$://&&&.reuters.com/article/2D12/D./D./column!&ynn!et3anol!corn!
i<=SB82.@85@=2D12D.D.)
7ut t3e estimate is inaccurate> by assumin- a&ay et3anol co!$ro<ucts an< in $articular so!calle<
N<istillers -rainsN &3ic3 substitute for corn in animal fee<. T3e $roblem 3as arisen $artly
because t3e =.S. ,e$artment of A-riculture (=S,A) fails to <istin-uis3 bet&een et3anol an<
<istillers -rains in its 3ea<line statistics on corn consum$tion. ,istillers -rains no& eGual about
a t3ir< of cornMs contribution to animal fee<> reflectin- massive -ro&t3 in t3e et3anol in<ustry.
T3e -oo< ne&s for t3e et3anol in<ustry is t3at its net corn consum$tion is far smaller t3an t3e
a$ocry$3al /D $ercent fi-ure. T3e ba< ne&s is it is still an eye!&aterin- 2. $ercent or so of t3e
national cro$.
#+te!sio!s
0#1
3.C ,xtension Harms H ,nvironment ?4 @Develo)ing Countries
are 5eyA 1 13
Off of 1.C ?4 @Develo)ing countries are ey to reducing emissions"A grou)
t!e 3AC res)onses#
1$ C!ina" 6ndia and ot!er develo)ing countries are more res)onsi&le for
green!ouse gas emissions t!an t!e (nited States" and t!e )lan does not!ing
to get t!em to reduce )ollution# ,ven if t!e )lan can decrease (#S#
emissions" glo&al 'arming 'ould &e inevita&le# ,xtend our D(--A A.D
*AD.,* evidence#
3$ -!eir evidence on C!ina reducing emissions from *,.,/ ,CO.OM:
says t!at C!ina later reversed t!is announcement# -!ere%s no !ard
evidence t!at C!ina is committed to reducing emissions#
1$ C!ina is leading t!e 'orld in emissions#
C.. MO.,:" 11
(4enGian O3uA #9lobal CJ2 emissions at recor< 3i-3 in 2D12>' 8/11A
3tt$://money.cnn.com/2D1*/D8/11/ne&s/economy/co2!emissions!recor<!3i-3/)
A $art of t3e 2D1D Cancun A-reements> L1 countries> re$resentin- nearly .DY of -lobal
-reen3ouse -as emissions> 3ave $le<-e< to act. T3ese $le<-es> 3o&ever> collectively fall &ell
s3ort of &3at is necessary to <eliver t3e 2dC -oal> accor<in- to t3e 02A re$ort. C3ina> @a$an>
0n<ia an< t3e Mi<<le 2ast all contribute< to t3e -ro&t3 in -lobal CJ2 emissions. C3ina &as t3e
lar-est $olluter> but t3e $ace of its increase &as one of t3e lo&est in t3e last <eca<e. 02A
attribute< C3inaMs im$rovement to a &i<er use of alternative ener-y.
4$ -!e affirmative doesn%t address 6ndia and ot!er leading develo)ing
nations" only C!ina#
5$ -!eir land-use argument is irrelevant H it doesn%t address C!inese and
6ndian emissions#
CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 10C >ar)s :#co!o)y; Fro!tli!e
0#1
1.C =rontline: Harms H ,conomy 1 11
1$ -urn: Mid'est ,conomies#
A$ ;overnment su))ort for domestic corn et!anol is critical to )reventing
Mid'est state economies from colla)sing# -!e )lan causes corn )rices to
dro)" destroying Io&s and magnifying t!e im)act of any recession#
S4,CH-" 13
Jver t3e $ast t3irty years> et3anol 3as become a -reater an< -reater factor in t3e economics of
corn $ro<uction> an< t3us t3e economy of t3e Mi<&estern =nite< States. 0n t3is time $erio<> t3e
amount of =.S. corn $ro<uction use< for et3anol 3as <ramatically increase<. 0n 1L.D> less t3an
1Y of t3e =.S. corn cro$ &ent to et3anol $ro<uction. 7y 2D11> t3at amount rose to a$$roximately
onet3ir< of t3e annual =.S. corn cro$. T3e success of t3e et3anol in<ustry 3as been one reason
t3at muc3 of t3e Corn 7elt 3as &eat3ere< t3e most recent economic recession relatively &ell.
Accor<in- to t3e 7ureau of Babor Statistics> as of Marc3 2D1*> %ort3 ,a?ota (&it3 *.2Y)>
%ebras?a (&it3 *..Y)> Sout3 ,a?ota (&it3 /./*Y)> an< 0o&a (&it3 5.DY) 3a< four of t3e six
lo&est state unem$loyment rates in t3e =nite< States. T&o ot3er states &it3 si-nificant et3anol
$ro<uction> Minnesota an< Cansas> &ere also in t3e bottom fifteen states for unem$loyment.
43ile it may be true t3at t3e Corn 7elt re-ion is currently <oin- &ell economically (t3at is> asi<e
from t3e effects of t3e <rou-3t of 2D12)> es$ecially relative to ot3er $arts of t3e country> t3is 3as
not al&ays been t3e case. ,urin- t3e 1L.Ds> &3en commo<ity $rices &ere very lo&> t3e Corn
7elt re-ion suffere< economic stress from s3ar$ly re<uce< farm $rofits. 7y $rovi<in- a certain
source of <eman< for corn> <omestic et3anol $ro<uction sets a floor on t3e $rice of corn>
$reventin- t3is ty$e of re-ional <isaster from re$eatin-. A<<itionally> t3e $o$ulation of t3e rural
Mi<&est 3as been <eclinin- for years. As :resi<ent Jbama ac?no&le<-e< in a 2D1D s$eec3> in
an era of outsourcin- an< <o&nsiEin- t3at be-an lon- before t3e most recent economic
recession> t3e <omestic corn!base< et3anol in<ustry stan<s out as one of t3e fe& sectors t3at is
brin-in- Iobs to rural America an< allo&in- to&ns t3at mi-3t ot3er&ise <ie to survive. 1or
rou-3ly t&o <eca<es> t3e <omestic et3anol in<ustry 3as relie< on t3e $romise of continue<
-overnment su$$ort in some form in or<er to ex$an< facilities an< ratc3et u$ $ro<uction. 1or
years $olicy!ma?ers 3ave $romote< t3e -oals of re<ucin- carbon <ioxi<e emissions> cuttin- bac?
on fossil fuel usa-e> an< re<ucin- =.S. <e$en<ence on forei-n countries for its ener-y nee<s.
Alt3ou-3 t3e <e-ree to &3ic3 t3e <omestic et3anol in<ustry actually meets t3ese -oals is
<is$ute<> it <oes contribute to ac3ievin- eac3 -oal to some <e-ree. 43ile im$ortin- et3anol
from Cuban su-arcane &oul< meet t3e first t&o national $olicy -oals> it &oul< <etract from t3e
t3ir<. 0t &oul< seem $erverse for $olicy!ma?ers to enact $olicies t3at &oul< severely <ama-e an
in<ustry t3at 3el$e< meet t3e national $olicy -oals t3ey 3a< es$ouse<> es$ecially after t3e
$olicy!ma?ers 3a< su$$orte< t3e in<ustry.
0#1
+$ 6m)orting et!anol from Cu&a 'ill colla)se Mid'est economies
S4,CH-" 13
Absent a scenario in &3ic3 t3e 61S &as raise< at t3e same time as =.S. consum$tion of et3anol
from Cuban su-arcane increase<> it is li?ely t3at im$ortin- Cuban su-arcane et3anol &oul< 3ave
a ne-ative economic effect on t3e Mi<&estern =nite< States. T3e &orst case economic scenario
for t3e =nite< States t3at coul< $ossibly arise out im$ortin- et3anol from Cuba &oul< be t3at
suc3 et3anol lar-ely su$$lants rat3er t3an su$$lements t3e <omestic et3anol in<ustry. T3is
coul< lea< to et3anol $lant closures> Iob losses> an< a re-ionaliEe< economic slo&<o&n across
t3e Mi<&estern =nite< States. T3is re-ionaliEe< economic slo&<o&n &oul< be ma<e &orse if a
<ro$ in <eman< for corn!base< et3anol le< to a si-nificant <ecline in corn $rices an< a resultin-
loss of $urc3asin- $o&er by corn farmers (&3ose s$en<in- in times of 3i-3 commo<ity $rices
boosts small!to&n economies).
3$ Sugarcane et!anol 'ill never &e )roductive enoug! to mae a dent in
glo&al gasoline consum)tion# Ot!er )olicy c!anges 'ould &e necessary to
solve#
S4,CH-" 13
0t must be stresse< t3at su-arcane!base< et3anol> from Cuba or any&3ere else> is not t3e
solution to t3e ener-y an< climate c3an-e $roblems face< by t3e =nite< States. 6e$lacin- Iust
ten $ercent of -lobal -asoline usa-e &it3 su-arcane!base< et3anol &oul< reGuire a tenfol<
increase in -lobal su-arcane $ro<uction. To a<<ress t3e $roblems of bot3 $ea? oil an< climate
c3an-e> t3e =nite< States must <o muc3 more to re<uce its fossil fuel consum$tion. 0t s3oul<
$rimarily <o t3is by usin- t3e strate-ies 3i-3li-3te< in t3e intro<uction of t3is Article: 3i-3er
fuel efficiency stan<ar<s> electric cars ($o&ere< &it3 electricity from rene&able ener-y sources>
not coal)> more $ublic trans$ortation> more &al?able nei-3bor3oo<s> an< s3orter commutes. To
t3e extent to &3ic3 t3ere &ill inevitably still be 3i-3 <eman< for liGui< fuels for automobiles>
et3anol from Cuban!-ro&n su-arcane can> an< s3oul<> be $art of t3e solution to bot3 $roblems.
0#1
1$ -!e international et!anol maret is too 'ea to drive u) demand#
64S" 11
-lobal!mar?et/)
1ollo&in- a $romisin- start> 7raEil5s <ream of $ositionin- et3anol in t3e -lobal mar?et on an
eGual stan<in- &it3 $etroleum!base< fuels is 3in<ere< by ne& an< ol< c3allen-es. 7raEil5s -oal
of ex$an<in- et3anol sales across t3e &orl< &ill only be attaine< &3en t3ere are Nmore countries
in a $osition to buy an< su$$ly>N note< 2<uar<o Beeo <e Sousa> <irector of t3e 7raEilian
Su-arcane 0n<ustry =nion (=%0CA)> an or-anisation t3at re$resents t3e country5s to$ su-ar an<
et3anol $ro<ucers. 7raEil an< t3e =nite< States $ro<uce close to .5 $ercent of t3e &orl<5s
et3anol> accor<in- to information from t3e 0nternational 2ner-y A-ency. Since it is $ro<uce<
almost exclusively for <omestic consum$tion> international sales are still mar-inal. ,e Sousa
tol< 0:S t3at t3e critical level of <eman< necessary to stimulate et3anol $ro<uction is not
somet3in- t3at emer-es s$ontaneously an< must be <riven by $ublic $olicies> suc3 as
re-ulations t3at reGuire a certain volume of rene&able fuel to be blen<e< into $etroleum!base<
trans$ort fuels.
4$ -!e (#S# economy is resilient and 'ill recover from any s!oc#
+0OOM+,*; +(S6.,SS/,,5" 13
(@os3ua Oumbrun an< 6omy +ar-3eseA #1e<5s :losser Says =.S. 2conomy :rovin- 6esilient to
S3oc?s>' 5/DL> 3tt$://&&&.business&ee?.com/ne&s/2D12!D5!DL/fe<!s!$losser!says!u!<ot!s!
<ot!economy!$rovin-!resilient!to!s3oc?s)
:3ila<el$3ia 1e<eral 6eserve 7an? :resi<ent C3arles :losser sai< t3e =.S. economy 3as $roven
#remar?ably resilient' to s3oc?s t3at can <ama-e -ro&t3> inclu<insur-in- oil $rices an<
natural <isasters. #T3e economy 3as no& -ro&n for 11 consecutive Guarters>' :losser sai< to<ay
accor<in- to remar?s $re$are< for a s$eec3 at t3e :3ila<el$3ia 1e<. #9ro&t3 is not robust. 7ut
-ro&t3 in t3e $ast year 3as continue< <es$ite si-nificant ris?s an< external an< internal
3ea<&in<s.' #T3e =.S. economy 3as a 3istory of bein- remar?ably resilient>' sai< :losser> &3o
<oesn5t 3ave a vote on $olicy t3is year. #T3ese s3oc?s 3el< 9,: -ro&t3 to less t3an 1 $ercent in
t3e first 3alf of 2D11> an< many analysts &ere concerne< t3at t3e economy &as 3ea<in- to&ar< a
<ouble <i$. Vet> t3e economy $rove< resilient an< -ro&t3 $ic?e< u$ in t3e secon< 3alf of t3e
year.'
CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 20C/10R >ar)s :#co!o)y; #+te!sio!s
0#1
3.C ,xtension Harms H ,conomy ?1 @Mid'est ,conomies -urnA
1 12
Off of 1.C ?1" t!e Mid'est economies turn" grou) t!e 3AC res)onses#
1 Hig! corn )rices created &y government su))ort for corn-&ased et!anol
are necessary to )ro) u) t!e agricultural sector in ey economies lie 6o'a
and 6llinois# -!e )lan cause massive and ra)id Io& loss in t!ose states"
triggering s)illover to ot!er industries and damaging t!e entire economy#
,xtend our S4,CH- evidence#
3$ Corn )rices must stay !ig! in order to ee) t!e agriculture industry
!ealt!y#
+ACHMA." 78
(@ustin> associate e<itor for 7usiness&ee?.comA #Con: 2t3anol 0s Jur Most +iable C3oiceA' 1eb>
3tt$://&&&.business&ee?.com/<ebateroom/arc3ives/2DD;/D2/et3anolZtooZmuc3Z3y$ean<Z
corn.3tml)
Moreover> t3e =.S.5s vital a-riculture economy <e$en<s 3eavily on 3ealt3y corn $rices for
farmers> an< t3e current cost of aroun< S/ $er bus3el is mana-eable for t3e economy. T3e
-enius of free!mar?et ca$italism &ill sort out &3at nee<s to 3a$$en as corn $rices mature an<
ot3er corn!<e$en<ent in<ustries com$ete for t3e fee<stoc?. 2t3anol also coul< become muc3
c3ea$er t3an it is no&> rou-3ly in line &it3 unlea<e< -asoline> if 4as3in-ton en<s tariffs on
im$orte< et3anol.

1$ Corn et!anol )roduction is ey to Mid'est economies#
+ACHMA." 78
(@ustin> associate e<itor for 7usiness&ee?.comA #Con: 2t3anol 0s Jur Most +iable C3oiceA' 1eb>
3tt$://&&&.business&ee?.com/<ebateroom/arc3ives/2DD;/D2/et3anolZtooZmuc3Z3y$ean<Z
corn.3tml)
A<<itionally> t3e et3anol in<ustry $lays a crucial role for t3e =.S. 1arm 7elt. i-3er corn $rices
are 3el$in- to rec3ar-e economically <e$resse< rural economies> an< ne& et3anol $lants brin-
<ecent!$ayin- Iobs to areas t3at 3ave suffere< c3ronic un<erem$loyment (see
7usiness4ee?.com> D1/1D/D;> #43o :rofits from Corn5s :o$R'). T3e 5.* billion -allons of
et3anol use< last year consume< only 2DY of t3e nation5s corn cro$.
4$ -!e affirmative evidence on t!e )lan leading to reforms in land us and
efficiency is )urely !y)ot!etical" lacs clear 'arrants or an ex)lanation on
!o' t!ese corn farms 'ill convert to anot!er )roduct" and ignores t!e
0#1
transition )eriod during '!ic! t!e farms 'ill inevita&ly &e !armed
economically#
5$ -!e affirmative never )roves !o' muc! t!ey !el) t!e meat industry H
t!eir evidence says t!at it is doing 'ell no'#
0#1
3.C ,xtension Harms H ,conomy ?3 @,t!anol 6sn%t ,noug!A
1 18
Off of 1.C ?3 @Sugarcane et!anol 'ill never &e im)ortant enoug! to solve"A
grou) t!e 3AC res)onses#
1$ Sugarcane et!anol 'ill not )roduce enoug! fuel to c!ange glo&al gas
consum)tion" '!ic! means it 'ill !ave no im)act on oil )rice fluctuations#
,xtend our S4,CH- evidence#
3$ Cu&a%s sugar industry colla)sed" and t!e country does not !ave t!e
infrastructure to )roduce et!anol#
,00,D;," <
(%ic3olas> &rites for t3e Council on emis$3eric AffairsA #CubaMs S&eet Success May Come from
an 2t3anol 1uture' 11/D2> 3tt$://&&&.t3ecuttin-e<-ene&s.com/in<ex.$3$Rarticleb11;/5)
Cuba5s su-ar in<ustry 3as suffere< from lon-!term ne-lect an< insufficient investment> an< its
$ro<uctive role 3as been utiliEe< more as a ve3icle for s3ort term $rofit t3an as an en-ine for
lon- term economic -ro&t3. 1rom 1L5L to 1LLL> only six ne& su-arcane mills &it3 t3e ca$acity
to co-enerate electricity &ere built <es$ite -uarantee< financial bac?in- from t3e Soviet =nion
for $art of t3at time. Also at avana5s <is$osal &ere several a<vance< su-arcane researc3
institutions> suc3 as t3e 0nstitute for Su-ar 0nvesti-ation (0C0%AO) an< t3e Cuban 6esearc3
0nstitute of Su-arcane ,erivates (0C0,CA). 9ra<ual <eca$italiEation> <isre$air> an< lo& morale>
all a result of a lar-ely insufficient investment an< a lac? of s$are $arts> brou-3t about t3e
infrastructural <eterioration t3at le< Castro to close t3e maIority of t3e nation5s mills in 2DD2.
1$ ,ven if t!e )lan resulted in eventual )roduction of cars t!at ran on
et!anol" our evidence says t!at et!anol itself doesn%t reduce oil
consum)tion enoug! to mae an economic difference#
4$ Affirmative o)timism on (#S# &usinesses &elieving in green tec!nology is
denied &y t!e fact t!at t!ere !as &een very little actual investment in green
tec!nology over t!e )ast 17 years or so#
0#1
3.C ,xtension Harms H ,conomy ?1 @.o MaretA 1 19
Off of 1.C ?1 @-!ere isn%t a &ig enoug! maret for et!anol"A grou) t!e 3AC
res)onses#
1$ -!ere is no glo&al maret for Cu&an et!anol" '!ic! means t!ere 'ill not
&e enoug! demand to sustain t!e industry over t!e long-term# ,xtend our
64S evidence#
3$ .o country is 'illing to guarantee a maret for &iofuels#
64S" 11
-lobal!mar?et/)
7ut t3at <eman< is not a sure t3in-. T3e 2=5s executive bo<y> t3e 2uro$ean Commission> is
consi<erin- revisin- its trans$ort fuel tar-et to im$ose a limit on cro$!base< biofuels in an effort
to $revent ne-ative im$acts on foo< su$$ly> &3ile in t3e =nite< States t3e $o&erful oil an< corn
lobbies are $ressurin- a-ainst t3e 61S> t3e =%0CA <irector sai<. Jut to conGuer emer-in-
mar?ets Anot3er 3u-e $otential mar?et is C3ina> but only if it a<o$ts an ambitious $ro-ramme
once Na su$$ly of <iverse an< $ermanent sources is -uarantee<>N <e Sousa forecaste<. Many
countries intro<uce< t3e use of et3anol as a fuel a<<itive in t3e 1LLDs. 7ut t3ere are numerous
cases in &3ic3 national $ro-rammes for t3e a<o$tion of t3is biofuel &ere $ost$one< or
im$lemente< on a trial basis. 1or exam$le> after establis3in- a voluntary t3ree $ercent biofuel
blen< in 2DD*> @a$an is still reluctant to ma?e it man<atory.
1$ Cu&a%s a&ility to ex)ort almost all of its sugarcane et!anol is irrelevant if
t!e glo&al maret for t!e )roduct doesn%t exist#
0#1
3.C ,xtension Harms H ,conomy ?4 @,conomy is *esilientA
1 1<
Off of 1.C ?4" @-!e (#S# economy is resilient"A grou) t!e 3AC res)onses#
1$ -!e (#S# economy can recover from s!ort-term s!ocs lie oil )rices
&ecause it is diverse and !as structural su))orts# ,xtend our +0OOM+,*;
+(S6.,SS/,,5 evidence#
3$ -!e (#S# can 'it!stand s!ocs &ecause it is &uilt differently t!an ot!er
countries#
*,(-,*S" 11
(Bea3 Sc3nurr an< An<y 7ruceA #=.S. resilient> 2uro$e <ebt &oes touc3 Asia>' 12/15>
3tt$://&&&.reuters.com/article/2D11/12/15/us!-lobal!economy!&ra$u$!
i<=ST62;72Da12D111215)
An im$rovement in t3e =.S. em$loyment $icture last &ee? an< a rise in re-ional factory activity
su--este< an emer-in- <ivi<e bet&een resiliency in t3e =.S. economy an< falterin- -ro&t3 in
2uro$e an< Asia. T3e better!t3an!ex$ecte< =.S. <ata booste< o$timism t3e economy 3as
momentum 3ea<in- into t3e ne& year an< &as furt3er evi<ence it is> so far> &eat3erin- t3e
festerin- soverei-n <ebt crisis in 2uro$e> &3ic3 is startin- to crim$ -ro&t3 in emer-in- tra<e
$artners li?e C3ina. As &ell> t&o factory activity surveys for t3e =.S. %ort3east s3o&e< -ro&t3
accelerate< as ne& or<ers im$rove<> an< manufacturers &ere more o$timistic about t3e mont3s
a3ea<. T3at leaves t3e =nite< States as $er3a$s t3e only maIor 4estern $o&er currently ma?in-
a si-nificant contribution to -lobal economic -ro&t3. N0t seems t3e =.S. economy is continuin-
to im$rove an< is finis3in- t3e year on a very stron- note>N sai< Alex o<er> economic analyst at
1T% 1inancial in %e& Vor?. T3e =.S. <ata 3el$e< boost 4all Street stoc?s in early tra<in-. T3e
%e& Vor? 1e<eral 6eserveMs N2m$ire StateN -eneral business con<itions in<ex rose to a seven!
mont3 3i-3 at L.5* from D.81 t3e $revious mont3. T3e :3ila<el$3ia 1e<eral 6eserve 7an? sai<
its business activity in<ex Ium$e< to 1D.* from *.8 t3e $revious mont3> risin- to its 3i-3est level
since A$ril. T3e survey covers factories in eastern :ennsylvania> sout3ern %e& @ersey an<
,ela&are> &3ile t3e 2m$ire State <ata covers %e& Vor? state.
1$ .eg evidence is credi&le# Officials at t!e =ederal *eserve +oard are
!ig!ly no'ledgea&le economists# -!ey are not motivated to say t!at t!e
economy 'ill al'ays &e !ealt!y H t!ey are motivated to accurately )redict
its direction so t!at t!ey can ex)lain t!eir )olicy actions in res)onse#
CDL Core Files 2013/14 10C Sol$e!cy Fro!tli!e
0#1
1.C =rontline H Solvency 1 47
1$ ,ven if t!e (#S# fully su))orts Cu&an et!anol" t!ere is no domestic
)olitical su))ort or internal economic demand to restart t!e industry#
S4,CH-" 13
T3e i<eal <omestic $olicy scenario for t3e creation of a robust Cuban su-arcane et3anol in<ustry
&oul< be a situation in &3ic3: t3e =.S. tra<e embar-o on Cuba is en<e<A =.S. tariff barriers are
remove< (in t3e case of su-ar) or not revive< (in t3e case of et3anol)A an< t3e 61S reGuirin- t3at
a certain $ercenta-e of =.S. fuel come from et3anol remain in $lace. Jf course> c3an-es in
=nite< States $olicy alone> even t3ose t3at ensure a stea<y source of <eman< for Cuban
su-arcane!base< et3anol> &oul< not be enou-3 to create an et3anol in<ustry from scratc3. Cuba
&ill nee< to foster t3e in<ustry as a ?ey -oal of t3e $ost!Castro era an< s3a$e its <omestic
$olicies to encoura-e t3e -ro&t3 of t3e in<ustry. 9iven t3at t3e Cuban su-ar in<ustry live< an<
<ie< by its ties &it3 t3e Soviet =nion for several <eca<es of t3e T&entiet3 Century> Cuba &ill
li?ely be Guite &ary of investin- too muc3 in t3e creation of a su-arcane et3anol in<ustry t3at it
$erceives as bein- lar-ely a creature of =.S. ener-y an< a-ricultural $olicy. T3erefore> t3e
creation of a si-nificant su-arcane et3anol in<ustry in Cuba &ill reGuire a lar-e increase in
<omestic <eman< for et3anol. Jne &ay t3at Cuba coul< encoura-e <omestic <eman< for et3anol
&oul< be to follo& t3e 7raEilian mo<el of encoura-in- t3e $urc3ase of 1lex 1uel ve3icles> &3ic3
can run on any blen< of fuel bet&een 1DDY -asoline an< 1DDY et3anol. 9iven t3e relative
$overty of Cuba5s $o$ulation> as in<icate< by t3e number of ve3icles in t3e country t3at are
several <eca<es ol<> ex$ectin- ne& ve3icles to $rovi<e a source of <eman< for et3anol may be an
extremely unrealistic $ros$ect. Jn t3e ot3er 3an<> $otential $ent!u$ <eman< for ne&
automobiles> alon-si<e sufficient an< &ell!<irecte< -overnment incentives> coul< accelerate
<eman< for 1lex 1uel ve3icles relative to ot3er countries.
CDL Core Files 2013/14 10C Sol$e!cy Fro!tli!e
0#1
1.C =rontline H Solvency 1 41
3$ Cu&an governmental )olicies are anti-&usiness '!ic! 'ill im)ede foreign
investment#
S4,CH-" 13
A<<itionally> because Cuba5s et3anol in<ustry is currently almost nonexistent> it &ill nee< a
-reat <eal of forei-n ex$ertise an< investment to -et starte<. o&ever> suc3 investments are
unli?ely to be ma<e unless Cuba ma?es fun<amental c3an-es in its business climate. 0n t3e
&or<s of 9onEaleE an< McCart3y> #(C)a$ital investment> &3ic3 Cuba5s economy <es$erately
nee<s an< &3ic3 is most li?ely to be su$$lie< by forei-n investors> &ill be <ifficult to attract
&it3out enforceable contracts> access to neutral a<Iu<ication of <is$utes> an< a <e-ree of
$re<ictability t3at 3as 3eretofore been lac?in-.' Any $ost!Castro -overnment &ill li?ely be-in to
ma?e suc3 c3an-es to increase t3e a$$eal of t3e islan< nation to forei-n investment. o&ever>
im$lementin- t3ese c3an-es &ill ta?e time an< trial an< error> &3ic3 &ill slo& t3e creation of a
su-arcane!base< et3anol in<ustry.
1$ +raGil is already )utting di)lomatic )ressure on Cu&a to develo)
sugarcane et!anol" and it is more influential t!an t!e (nited States#
*,(-,*S" 13
7raEil an< t3e =nite< States 3ave ste$$e< u$ t3eir lobbyin- in recent mont3s. :ilot et3anol
$ro-rams to intro<uce t3e biofuel to consumers &it3 blen< reGuirements are set to be-in in
t3ree countries> startin- in on<uras by early 2D1*> anot3er =.S. official sai<. To accelerate t3e
$rocess> 7raEil an< t3e =nite< States are $lannin- $resentations in comin- mont3s to attract
ne& investors intereste< in biofuel $roIects in t3e t3ree countries> officials sai<. 7raEilMs -ro&in-
<i$lomatic clout 3as been critical to o$enin- <oors in countries &3ere t3e nation 3as <ee$
strate-ic or cultural connections> suc3 as Sene-al> MoEambiGue an< aiti. An< it is uniGuely
eGui$$e< to exert influence in Cuba.
CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 20C/10R Sol$e!cy #+te!sio!s
0#1
3.C ,xtension Solvency - ?1 @.o /ill to *e-Start 6ndustry A 1 43
Off of 1.C ?1 @Cu&a lacs t!e 'ill to re-start t!e et!anol industry"A grou)
t!e 3AC res)onses#
1$ Cu&a does not !ave t!e domestic )olitical 'ill to invest in et!anol
)roduction even if t!e (#S# creates a maret" and t!ere is not enoug!
economic demand 'it!in Cu&a for fuel to drive investment# ,xtend our
S4,CH- evidence#
3$ -!e Cu&an government 'ill not allo' t!e sugar cane industry to gro' out
of res)ect for =idel Castro%s 'is!es#
C(+A H,AD06.,S" 9
(#After Castro Cuban 2t3anol 7oom ,oubtfulR' D2/2.>
3tt$://&&&.cuba3ea<lines.com/2DD./D2/2./L/5;/afterZcastroZcubanZet3anolZboomZ<oubt
ful.3tml)
1i<el CastroMs retirement t3is &ee? fuele< s$eculation t3at et3anol coul< become a billion!<ollar
ex$ort in<ustry for t3e cas3!stra$$e< communist country un<er 3is brot3er 6aul Castro. 7ut
1i<el Castro is ex$ecte< to retain 3u-e influence in Cuba an< 3e 3as re$eate<ly bran<e< t3e use
of foo< cro$s to $ro<uce fuel as a crime a-ainst 3umanity because risin- $rices &ill increase
3un-er. A local economist &it3 ties to t3e su-ar in<ustry sai< Cuba is &or?in- to <evelo$
tec3nolo-y to $ro<uce fuel from mille< su-ar cane ba-asse. 0f successful> Cuba coul< become
more intereste< in ma?in- et3anol> 3e sai<. N0t is inconceivable &3ile 1i<el is still alive t3at 3is
brot3er 6aul> or anyone else> &oul< convert a si-nificant $ro$ortion of our su-ar cro$ or vacant
lan< to et3anol>N t3e economist sai<> as?in- not to be i<entifie<. N2ven after 1i<el <ies> 0 canMt
ima-ine t3at 3a$$enin- for Guite some time>N 3e sai<. Currently> et3anol is obtaine< from su-ar
cane Iuice an< cannot be ma<e from ba-asse> but ne& researc3 is focusin- on cellulose
tec3nolo-y t3at coul< ma?e t3is $ossible. Cuba &as once t3e &orl<Ms lar-est su-ar ex$orter. 0n
1LLD> it $ro<uce< . million tonnes of ra& su-ar. 7ut t3e fall of t3e Soviet =nion> lo& $rices an<
ba< mana-ement left t3e in<ustry in ruins. T3e 2DD8!2DD; 3arvest &as Iust 1.2 million tonnes.
Su-ar is no lon-er a maIor ex$ort earner an< Cuba> in fact> 3as been im$ortin- about 2DD>DDD
tonnes a year of lo& -ra<e &3ites to cover <omestic consum$tion. 6onal< Soli-o> an ener-y
economist at 6ice =niversity in ouston> sai< Cuba coul< $ro<uce about 1.8 billion -allons of
et3anol annually if it returne< to su-ar cane yiel<s $revalent &3en t3e Soviet =nion &as buyin-
its su-ar at inflate< $rices. . . . T3e -overnment> 3o&ever> 3as been reluctant to allo& forei-n
com$anies to a<minister farms> a $recon<ition for any business &antin- to invest in a-riculture
in Cuba.
1$ Affirmative evidence says t!at Cu&a !as t!e ca)acity to ex)and its
et!anol industry" not t!at it !as t!e investor or )olitical 'ill to do so# Our
argument is t!at Cu&an leaders )erceive t!at t!ere 'ouldn%t &e enoug!
0#1
domestic demand" and t!at an et!anol industry 'ould &e too de)endent on
a !istorical enemy" t!e (#S#
0#1
3.C ,xtension Solvency - ?3 @ +ad +usiness ClimateA 1 41
Off of 1.C ?3 @Cu&a is anti-&usiness" im)eding foreign investment"A grou)
t!e 3AC res)onses#
1$ Cu&a !as a )oor &usiness model" including lac of )rotection for
contracts and dis)ute mec!anisms '!ic! )revent com)anies from setting
u) ne' factories in Cu&a# ,xtend our S4,CH- evidence#
3$ Cu&a%s ca)acity for c!ange and for industrial ex)ansion is irrelevant H
foreign &usinesses 'ill c!oose not to invest in Cu&a &ecause t!ey )erceive
t!at )ro-&usiness structures don%t exist#
1$ Any reforms 'ill tae a long time to come a&out and )re-su))ose a level
of &usiness investment t!at t!e current Communist structures 'ill )revent#
4$ Communism !as left Cu&a 'it!out any silled 'orers to get t!e et!anol
industry off t!e ground#
S4,CH-" 13
Bi?e all ne& ca$italist in<ustries to emer-e in t3e $ost!Castro era> &3atever et3anol in<ustry
arises &ill 3ave to <eal &it3 t3e $ainful transition from socialism to ca$italism. T3e Cuban
su-arcane et3anol in<ustry &ill face similar c3allen-es to ot3er $rivate sector in<ustries t3at
arise in t3e $ost!1i<el era. Jne of t3ese c3allen-es &ill be sim$ly a lac? of $eo$le &it3 s?ills
necessary for any in<ustry. Accor<in- to 2<&ar< 9onEaleE an< Cevin McCart3y of t3e 6A%,
Cor$oration> #(A)s a result of /D!$lus years of communism> t3e labor force lac?s t3e ?in<s of
traine< mana-ers> accountants> au<itors> ban?ers> insurers> etc.> t3at a robust mar?et economy
reGuires.' 43ile t3ese c3allen-es &ill not be uniGue to Cuba5s et3anol in<ustry> t3ey &ill $ut t3e
country at a com$etitive <isa<vanta-e vis!f!vis existin- et3anol ex$orters suc3 as 7raEil. T3is
&ill be es$ecially true if t3ere is a si-nificant la- time bet&een t3e ex$iration of t3e et3anol tariff
barriers at t3e en< of 2D11 an< t3e eventual removal of t3e =nite< States tra<e embar-o a-ainst
Cuba.
0#1
3.C ,xtension Solvency - ?1 @+raGil Solves 6nvestmentA 1 44
Off of 1.C ?1 @+raGil is already )us!ing for Cu&an et!anol )roduction"A
grou) t!e 3AC res)onses#
1$ +raGil is )us!ing Cu&a to ex)and sugarcane et!anol )roduction" and t!ey
are more influential in Cu&a t!an t!e (nited States# ,xtend our *,(-,*S
evidence# -!e fact t!at +raGil is )utting all t!is )ressure on Cu&a and
not!ing is !a))ening em)irically )roves our solvency tae-outs#
3$ -!e lac of industrial infrastructure is t!e underlying cause of t!e failure
of +raGilian )ressure#
4A-6.O" 7<
(C3ristian Santia-o> a&ar<e< Secon< :riEe in t3e ASC2 2DDL Stu<ent :riEe Com$etition for
un<er-ra<uate stu<entsA #T2 C=7A% S=9A6 ,0B2MMA: T2 :6JS:2CT 1J6 A 9622%
1=T=62' 3tt$://&&&.ascecuba.or-/$ublications/$rocee<in-s/volume1L/$<fs/$atino.$<f)
7ut for Cuba to $ro<uce et3anol at an international scale it must acGuire t3e nee<e< tec3nolo-y
K at t3e moment t3e fe& Cuban <istilleries t3at coul< $otentially be converte< into et3anol
factories are small an< t3eir ca$acity is limite< to a trivial volume of ./ million -allons a year.
9iven t3at t3e Cuban re-ime <oes not 3ave t3e ca$ital to finance t3e <evelo$ment of t3e et3anol
sector> ca$ital &ill 3ave to be inIecte< from t3e outsi<e an< as investor asses t3eir ris?s t3ey &ill
evaluate t3e bac?&ar< an< for&ar< lin?a-es of t3e Cuban su-arcane sector as &ell as tren<s in
t3e &orl< <eman< for et3anol.
Di8lo)atic Ca8ital Disad$a!tage 1/1
0#1
Di)lomatic Ca)ital Disadvantage .egative 145
1%C S3ell: ,i$lomatic Ca$ital ,isa<vanta-e...............................................................................1/8
2%C 2xtensions: A/t F "1 #2m$irically ,enie<' (1/2)................................................................1/.
2%C 2xtensions: A/t F "2 #Jbama 0sn5t 1ocuse<'......................................................................15D
2%C 2xtensions: A/t F "* #Case Jut&ei-3s'...............................................................................151
2%C 2xtensions: A/t F "/ #4inners 4in' (1/2).........................................................................152
2%C 2xtensions: A/t F "5 #:eace Tal?s 4ill 1ail' (1/*)..............................................................15/
2%C 2xtensions: A/t F "8 #1orei-n Ai< is ,eclinin-'.................................................................15;
2%C 2xtensions: A/t F "; #%o Tra<e!off'...................................................................................15.
2%C 2xtensions: A/t F ". #:lan Clears Small 0ssues'................................................................15L
2%C 2xtensions: A/t F "L #Tal?s 4ill 1ail'................................................................................18D
T2S0S: T3e =.S. State ,e$artment 3as finite> limite< resources an< ability
to focus. Currently our <i$lomatic efforts are entirely focuse< on t3e Mi<<le
2ast. T3e $lan is a maIor ne& Batin American <i$lomatic initiative an< &oul<
inevitably tra<e!off &it3 an< <istract from =.S. focus on an< resource
<evotion to t3e Mi<<le 2ast. An< in or<er to ac3ieve Mi<<le 2ast $eace> t3e
=.S. is -oin- to nee< all of its <i$lomatic ca$ital <evote< t3ere. 0f t3e Mi<!
2ast $eace $rocess fails> 4orl< 4ar 000 is a $lausible result.
CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 10C Shell
0#1
1.C S!ell: Di)lomatic Ca)ital Disadvantage 142
A$ (niEueness: 4resident O&ama is focused on using !is limited di)lomatic
ca)ital on resolving )ro&lems in t!e Middle ,ast -- success t!ere 'ill
reEuire !is full foreign )olicy attention#
/ASH6.;-O. 4OS-" 11
(,avi< 0-natius> #Jbama5s $ra-matic a$$roac3 to Mi<east>' */2;>
3tt$://articles.&as3in-ton$ost.com/2D1*!D*!2;/o$inions/*.D8.82LZ1Z$resi<ent!obama!
netanya3u!israel)
T3is $ra-matic line on forei-n $olicy &as evi<ent <urin- Jbama5s tri$ to t3e Mi<<le 2ast t3is
mont3. T3ou-3 t3e $resi<ent is often criticiEe< for 3is $assive> #lea<in- from be3in<' style> 3e
ma<e some notable a<vances on t3e tri$. T3e c3allen-e> as al&ays for Jbama> &ill be to follo&
t3rou-3 &it3 co3erent #from t3e front' lea<ers3i$. ere are t3ree strate-ic -ains t3at emer-e<
from t3e tri$: Jbama breat3e< a little life bac? into an 0sraeli!:alestinian $eace $rocess t3at 3a<
all but ex$ire<. e <i< t3is lar-ely by t3e force of 3is Marc3 21 s$eec3 in 0srael. 43at 3e
accom$lis3e< &as t3e <i$lomat5s tric? of ri<in- t&o 3orses at once: T3e s$eec3 &as a love letter
to 0srael> as one commentator note<> an< it &as also a $assionate evocation of t3e :alestinians5
$li-3t> an< t3e nee< to #loo? at t3e &orl< t3rou-3 t3eir eyes.' Jbama $ulle< 0sraeli :rime
Minister 7enIamin %etanya3u to&ar< t3e =.S. $osition on military action a-ainst 0ran. . . .
T3ese exc3an-es <emonstrate< t3at Jbama is stron-er $olitically t3an 3e &as a year a-o an<
%etanya3u is &ea?er. T3e 0sraeli $rime minister is no& tryin- to associate 3imself &it3 Jbama5s
0ran $olicy> rat3er t3an $ressurin- 3im. Jbama bro?ere< an im$ortant reconciliation bet&een
%etanya3u an< Tur?is3 :rime Minister 6ece$ Tayyi$ 2r<o-an. 4it3 t3e re-ion in turmoil> t3is
&as a matter of vital national interest for bot3 0srael an< Tur?ey> but it too? Jbama to $rovi<e
t3e $ersonal lin? t3at ma<e it 3a$$en. T3is &as a $ayoff for Jbama5s cultivation of 2r<o-an
since 2D1D> an< for 3is #reset' &it3 %etanya3u. Syria remains t3e test of &3et3er Jbama can>
for-ive t3e term> #lean in' more <urin- 3is secon< term. Jbama 3as been slo& to see t3e
<an-ers of =.S. $assivity t3ere: 1or mont3s 3e let t3in-s <rift in SyriaA t3e =nite< States 3a< a
nominal commitment to stren-t3enin- comman<!an<!control &it3in t3e o$$osition but no real
$olicy on t3e -roun< to accom$lis3 it. Jbama is no& sai< to un<erstan< t3e ris? t3at Syria5s
0#1
sectarian conflict &ill s$rea< to Bebanon> 0raG an< @or<an if t3e =nite< States <oesn5t ta?e
stron-er action. . . . 7ut t3e Mi<<le 2ast tri$ s3o&e< t3at 3e 3as built some $olitical an<
<i$lomatic ca$ital an< is startin- to use it &isely.
0#1
1.C S!ell: Di)lomatic Ca)ital Disadvantage 148
+$ 0in: -!e )lan forces O&ama to focus !is di)lomatic resources on 0atin
America" '!ic! causes foreign )olicy overstretc! and )revents !is a&ility to
deal 'it! t!e Middle ,ast#
A.D,*SO. A.D ;*,/,00" 71
(Terry> Senior fello& at oover 0nstituteA an< 7is3o$> 6esearc3 associate g :olitical 2conomy
6esearc3 CenterA #0t 0snMt 2asy 7ein- 9reen: 2nvironmental :olicy 0m$lications for 1orei-n
:olicy> 0nternational Ba&> an< Soverei-nty>N C3ica-o @ournal of 0nternational Ba&> 1all 2DD1> 2
C3i. @. 0ntMl B. /2;> %exis)
1orei-n $olicy is a ba- of -oo<s t3at inclu<es issues from free tra<e to arms tra<in- to 3uman
ri-3ts. 2ac3 ne& issue in t3e ba- &ei-3s it <o&n> lessenin- t3e focus on ot3er issues an< even
creatin- conflicts bet&een issues. 0ncrease< environmental re-ulations coul< cause countries to
lessen t3eir focus on international t3reats of violence> suc3 as t3e sale of ballistic missiles or
bor<er conflicts bet&een nations. As countries must &atc3 over more an< more issues arisin- in
t3e international $olicy arena> t3ey &ill stretc3 t3e resources necessary to <eal &it3 tra<itional
international issues. As Sc3aefer &rites> N7ecause <i$lomatic currency is finite... it is critically
im$ortant t3at t3e =nite< States focus its <i$lomatic efforts on issues of $aramount im$ortance
to t3e nation.
C$ 6m)act: 4eace )rocess failure causes escalating )roliferation and
aggression t!at causes nuclear 'ar#
S0A-,*" <<
(@erome> :rofessor of :olitical Science at S=%V!7uffaloA Ti??un Ma-aEine> */D1)
T3ere 3as been a ?in< of cons$iracy of silence over t3e $otential conseGuences of a brea?<o&n
of t3e $eace $rocess> $er3a$s because in t3e &orst case t3ey are not3in- s3ort of a$ocaly$tic.
7ut t3e ris?s are real. 0srael 3as 3un<re<s of nuclear &ea$ons> Syria 3as nerve -as mounte< on
ballistic missiles aime< at 0sraeli cities> an< it is only a matter of time before ot3er Arab states or
! far &orse ! fanatical terrorist -rou$s obtain &ea$ons of mass <estruction> &3et3er nuclear>
c3emical> or biolo-ical. ere is t3e ni-3tmare scenario: T3e intransi-ence of t3e %etanya3u
-overnment an< its clear intention to continue to <ominate t3e 4est 7an? an< <eny t3e
:alestinians true national citiEens3i$ an< soverei-nty lea< to a resum$tion of sustaine<
terrorism> t3is time &it3 t3e tacit acGuiescence or o$en su$$ort of Arafat an< t3e :alestinian
Aut3ority an< &it3 t3e -eneral su$$ort of t3e :alestinian $o$ulation. . . . 0srael res$on<s &it3
un$rece<ente< re$ression> an< t3e cycle of communal violence an< counterviolence continues to
escalate until 0srael <eci<es to reoccu$y t3e 4est 7an? an< $er3a$s 9aEa in or<er to crus3 t3e
:alestinian movement ! maybe even ex$ellin- lar-e numbers of :alestinians into nei-3borin-
Arab states. An inflame< Arab &orl< -reatly increases its su$$ort of t3e ne& intifa<a or> &orse>
mo<erate -overnments t3at try to stan< clear are overt3ro&n an< re$lace< by extremists in
Syria> 2-y$t> an< @or<an. 0n t3ese circumstances> even if a -eneral &ar in t3e Mi<<le 2ast coul<
0#1
some3o& be averte<> t3ere is li?ely to be escalatin- international terrorism a-ainst 0srael an< its
su$$orters ! sooner or later inclu<in- nuclear or ot3er forms of mass terrorism.

CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 20C/10R #+te!sio!s
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t H ?1 @,m)irically DeniedA B1>3C 149
-!ey say t!at t!e im)act is em)irically denied" &ut # # #
1$ .o' is a critical Iuncture for Middle ,ast )eace negotiations &ecause all
)arties are a&le to give t!eir full focus to t!e tals# ,xtend t!e
/ASH6.;-O. 4OS- evidence#
3$ ,very maIor conflict in t!e Middle ,ast" from Syria to 6ranian nuclear
)roliferation" 'ill escalate unless t!e 6srael>4alestine conflict is resolved
Euicly#
/O*0D O(-06.," 11
(#@o3n Cerry: -oo< ne&s for t3e Mi<<le 2ast $eace $rocess>' //1*>
3tt$://t3e&orl<outline.com/2D1*/D5/Io3n!?erry!-oo<!ne&s!for!t3e!mi<<le!east!$eace!
$rocess/)
Jn Marc3 21> in a s$eec3 in @erusalem> 7arac? Jbama vo&e< t3at t3e =nite< States &oul< ta?e
care of t3e 0sraeliF:alestinian conflict. So far 3e seems to be ?ee$in- 3is $romise. An< it is
about time> too. :resi<ent Jbama5s first term &as mar?e< by a total &it3<ra&al from t3e
situation. Jne coul< even s$ea? of re-ression. 0n 1ebruary 2D11> t3e =nite< States vetoe< a
resolution at t3e =% Security Council con<emnin-> once a-ain> t3e continue< ex$ansion of
0sraeli settlements in t3e 4est 7an?. 0t &as a &ay of confirmin- &3at 3as been 3a$$enin- for
years: 4as3in-ton unflinc3in-ly acce$tin- t3e $olicies of its ally> 0srael> to&ar<s t3e :alestinian
territories. Jbama is in a $ara<oxical $osition. e inten<s to invest =S $o&er in Asia F t3e
re-ion t3at> accor<in- to 3im> &ill mar? t3e century F &3ile <isen-a-in- from t3e Mi<<le 2ast
an< its re$eate< tra-e<iesA in s3ort> 3ea< to t3e ne& bi- -ro&t3 su$erstar of t3e time an< $ull
out of a re-ion <eeme< a lost cause> <ro&nin- in its a-eless &ars of reli-ion. 4e un<erstan<
:resi<ent Jbama5s lo-ic. 7ut at t3e same time> &e fear t3at America must continue to exert a
<ominant $olitical an< military influence in t3e Mi<<le 2ast. T3is reGuires t3e resolution of t3e
0sraeli!:alestinian issue. 0t is not t3at t3e conflict is central from a strate-ic $oint of vie&> as &e
say too often. T3e re-ion is torn in multi$le bloo<y clas3es t3at <o not 3ave muc3 to <o &it3 t3e
0sraelis an< :alestinians. 7ut t3is conflict is central in t3e memory of t3e Arab $eo$le> for &3om
it 3as a $articularly 3eavy symbolic an< $olitical &ei-3t. A brea?t3rou-3 in t3is case &oul< be a
source of re-ional $eace. 0t &oul< c3an-e t3e $rofile of t3e Mi<<le 2ast F for t3e best> cuttin-
out t3e root of t3e 3ysterical an< barbaric Ii3a<ist ra<icalism &3ic3 3as <evelo$e<. Jbama 3as
referre< t3e case to t3e Secretary of State> @o3n Cerry> a tou-3> t3ou-3tful an< com$etent man.
Since Jbama5s s$eec3 in @erusalem> Mr Cerry 3as visite< t3e re-ion t3ree times. e 3as met all
t3e $rota-onists> or almost: t3e -overnment of 7enIamin %etanya3u an< t3e :alestinian
Aut3ority c3aire< by Ma3mou< Abbas> but not yet amas. ,ialo-ue must be restore<> an< t3at
is &3at t3e Secretary of State inten<s to <o in @erusalem an< 6amalla3. e announce< a
substantial economic ai< $ac?a-e for t3e :alestinians. . . . 0nstea<> t3e Secretary of State &ants
to ex$an< t3e ne-otiations by inclu<in- t3e =nite< States an< @or<an. T3e ultimate -oal is t3e
0#1
creation of a :alestinian state alon-si<e 0srael. T3e 0sraeli issue sits besi<e t3ose of 0ran an<
Syria as crucial forei-n $olicy $riorities for t3e Jbama a<ministration. 7ut in t3e $romisin-
be-innin-s of @o3n Cerry5s tenure as Secretary of State> 3o$efully to be continue< &it3 an
im$en<in- visit in :a?istan> &e <o 3ave reason for o$timism.
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t H ?1 @,m)irically DeniedA B3>3C 14<
1$ .o' is a uniEue time &ecause ra)id nuclear )roliferation is maing t!e
Middle ,ast extremely unsta&le#
C6*6.C6O., A.D 0,F,.-,*" 78
(@ose$3> <irector for nuclear $olicy at t3e Center for American :ro-ressA an< =ri> -ra<uate
stu<ent at t3e arvar< =niversity @o3n 1. Cenne<y Sc3ool of 9overnmentA #T3e Mi<<le 2ast5s
%uclear Sur-e>' ./21> 3tt$://&&&.3uffin-ton$ost.com/alon!benmeir/?errys!last!<itc3!
effortZbZ*/2.1DD.3tml)
0nstea< of seein- t3is nuclear sur-e as a ne& mar?et> t3e countries &it3 nuclear tec3nolo-y to
sell 3ave a moral an< strate-ic obli-ation to ensure t3at t3eir business <oes not result in t3e
Mi<<le 2ast -oin- from a re-ion &it3 one nuclear &ea$on state F 0srael F to one &it3 t3ree>
four> or five nuclear nations. 0f t3e existin- territorial> et3nic> an< $olitical <is$utes continue
unresolve<> t3is is a reci$e for nuclear &ar. T3is means t3at nuclear tec3nolo-y states must be
Iust as ener-etic in $romotin- t3e resolution of t3ese conflicts as t3ey are in $romotin- t3eir
$ro<ucts. 0t means buil<in- t3e unity of t3e =nite< States> 2uro$e> 6ussia an< t3e re-ional
states to effectively contain t3e 0ranian $ro-ram. 1inally> it means t3at en-a-in- &it3 Te3ran is
even more crucial to 3alt not only t3e 0ranian nuclear $ro-ram> but t3ose t3at &ill soon start to
materialiEe aroun< it.
4$ History em)irically )roves our im)act# -!ere !ave &een multi)le Mid-
,ast 'ars in t!e )ast 15 years" 'it! !undreds of t!ousands" )er!a)s
millions of )eo)le illed# -errorism is a daily occurrence in t!e Middle
,ast# -!e affirmative is asing us to !o)e t!at t!e next conflict t!ere
doesn%t go glo&al and )ossi&ly nuclear H a &ig ris to tae#
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t H ?3 @O&ama 6sn%t =ocusedA 157
-!ey say t!at O&ama is not focused in leading a Mid-,ast )eace )rocess#
.ot true#
1$ O&ama is focused and committed to Middle ,ast )eace negotiations" and
!e is )utting !is entire foreign )olicy administration to 'or# Our evidence
is from a more relia&le source and cites actual negotiations rat!er t!an
s)eculations a&out Saudi Ara&ia" a country t!at isn%t involved in t!e )eace
tals# ,xtend our /ASH6.;-O. 4OS- evidence#
3$ O&ama is focused on resolving t!e Middle ,ast )eace )rocess" &ut
success 'ill reEuire total focus and attention#
5(*-D,*" 11
(,aniel> S. ,aniel Abra3am :rofessor of Mi<<le 2ast :olicy Stu<ies at :rinceton =niversity5s
4oo<ro& 4ilson Sc3ool of :ublic an< 0nternational Affairs> #JbamaMs Mi<<le 2ast $us3 must
brea? t3e mol<>' //*D> 3tt$://&&&.<&.<e/obamas!mi<<le!east!$us3!must!brea?!t3e!mol</a!
18;.D;L5)
T3e 0sraeli!:alestinian conflict 3as been <eco<e<. 7ot3 si<es an< t3e =S ?no& exactly &3at it
ta?es to solve it. %o& it is time for 7arac? Jbama to s3o& t3at 3e is not Iust -oin- t3rou-3 t3e
motions a-ain. 2very effort to a<vance :alestinian!0sraeli $eace ne-otiations can ex$ect to face
four se$arate but relate< crises: confi<ence!<estroyin- activities on t3e -roun<A $olitical turmoil
t3at com$licate lea<ersM ability an< rea<iness to ne-otiateA a <ee$ substantive <ivi<e over all t3e
core issuesA an< active attem$ts by s$oilers> o$$onents of t3e $eace $rocess> to un<ermine t3e
$rocess. As eac3 of t3ese crises occurs ! an<> if 3istory is a -ui<e> all of t3em are certain to
confront t3e $arties an< t3e =nite< States sooner or later ! t3 e $olitical &ill> <etermination> an<
$olitical bac?bone of all si<es &ill be teste<. 1or t3e Jbama a<ministration> its res$onses to
t3ese crises &ill <etermine 3o& serious it is serious about tryin- to ac3ieve $eace. =nsettlin-
settlements T3e a<ministration is &ell!verse< in t3ese $roblems an< t3us lo-ically s3oul< be
$re$are<. T3us far t3ere 3as been no a$$arent success in ac3ievin- an 0sraeli settlements freeEe>
alt3ou-3 recent $ress articles 3ave su--este< a <e facto slo&<o&n on t3e -roun<. Since
settlement activities remain one of t3e most vexin- $roblems :alestinians face in <eci<in-
&3et3er a $eace $us3 is serious> 3o& t3e =nite< States reacts to t3e inevitable 0sraeli
announcements of ne& construction &ill be critical. T3is is es$ecially im$ortant in t3ree
-eo-ra$3ic areas: 2!1> t3e stretc3 of lan< bet&een @erusalem an< t3e settlement of Maale
A<umim to t3e eastA in @erusalem itself> in $articular in t3e rin- of nei-3bor3oo<s t3at surroun<
t3e Jl< City on t3e eastern si<eA an< outsi<e t3e area encom$asse< by t3e 0sraeli security
barrier> t3at is> beyon< t3e small $ercenta-e of 4est 7an? lan< t3at is li?ely to be $art of lan<
s&a$s in a $eace accor<. Jn t3e $olitics of $eace ma?in-> t3e Jbama a<ministration> li?e its
$re<ecessors> is &ell!attune< an< sensitive to t3e al&ays!<ynamic an< usually!c3aotic $olitical
0#1
situation in 0srael. T3e Guestion t3us is &3et3er it &ill manifest eGual sensitivity to :alestinian
$olitics.
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t H ?1 @Case Out'eig!sA 151
-!ey say t!at t!e case out'eig!# Ho'ever" # # #
1$ Our im)acts out'eig! t!e case# Middle ,ast conflict 'ill go nuclear and
glo&al &ecause 6srael 'ill feel it must act aggressively and )re-em)tively
'it! nuclear 'ea)ons due to fear if t!e )eace tals fail## ,xtend our S0A-,*
evidence#
3$ Our im)acts tae out t!e case-side solvency &ecause foreign )olicy
overstretc! allo's allies to )retend t!ey 'ill reform '!ile constantly
delaying and never im)lementing reforms#
/A0-" 7<
(Ste$3en> 6obert an< 6enQe 7elfer $rofessor of international relations at arvar< =niversityA
#%ibble< to <eat3 by <uc?sR>' ;/2;>
3tt$://&alt.forei-n$olicy.com/$osts/2DDL/D;/2;/nibble<ZtoZ<eat3ZbyZ<uc?s)
An even better tactic ($erfecte< by a number of close =.S. allies) is to $reten< to com$ly &it3
American &is3es &3ile blit3ely -oin- a3ea< &it3 t3eir o&n a-en<as. So %ATJ allies $romise to
increase t3eir <efense efforts but never mana-e to <o muc3A 0srael $romises to sto$ buil<in-
settlements but some3o& t3e number of ille-al settlers ?ee$s -ro&in-> t3e :alestinians $le<-e to
reform but ma?e $ro-ress at a -lacial $ace> :a?istan su$$resses Ii3a<is &it3 one 3an< an<
subsi<iEes t3em &it3 t3e ot3er> 0ran a-rees to ne-otiate but continues to enric3> C3ina says it
&ill crac? <o&n on co$yri-3t violations but t3e $roblem remains $ervasive> an< so on.
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t H ?4 @/inners /inA B1>3C 153
-!ey say t!at @'inner%s 'inA and t!at t!e )lan maes O&ama more
)o'erful on t!e glo&al stage" &ut # # #
1$ Our lin is a uniEue instance in '!ic! a )olitical 'in doesn%t lead to more
'ins# =oreign )olicy success reEuires focus on a single issue" &ecause trying
to mani)ulate different countries in different regions 'ill overstretc!
O&ama%s staff and lead to failure every'!ere# ,xtend our A.D,*SO. A.D
;*,/,00 evidence#
3$ -ime-frame taes out t!e @'inners 'inA argument# During t!e time t!at
t!e )lan is )assed and im)lemented t!e o))ortunity for success in t!e
Middle ,ase )eace )rocess 'ill !ave ela)sed#
1$ Di)lomatic ca)ital is finite H too many )olicies 'ill )revent t!e (#S# from
ac!ieving im)ortant goals#
SCHA,==,*" 77
(7rett> 1ello& in t3e Center for 0nternational Tra<e at erita-e 1oun<ationA T3e 9reenin- of
=.S. 1orei-n :olicyA $./8)
,i$lomacy is t3e first o$tion in a<<ressin- $otential t3reats to =.S. national interests an<
ex$ressin- =.S. concerns an< $riorities to forei-n nations. T3e <aily con<uct of <i$lomacy
t3rou-3 =.S. missions an< re$resentatives is essential in articulatin- =.S. interests an< elicitin-
coo$eration an< su$$ort for t3ose interests abroa<. 7ecause <i$lomatic currency is finiteK
clearly> forei-n countries an< officials cannot be ex$ecte< to en<lessly su$$ort an< $romote =.S.
concernsKit is critically im$ortant t3at t3e =nite< States focus its <i$lomatic efforts on issues of
$aramount im$ortance to t3e nation. Tra<itionally> t3ese $riorities 3a< been o$$osin- 3ostile
<omination of ?ey -eo-ra$3ic re-ions> su$$ortin- our allies> securin- vital resources> an<
ensurin- access to forei-n economies (olmes an< Moore 1LL8> xi!xvii).
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t H ?4 @/inners /inA B3>3C 151
4$ -aing on too many foreign )olicy issues at once leads to )olicy
overstretc! and 'eaness on every issue" allo'ing less )o'erful
governments to &ac out of coo)eration#
/A0-" 7<
#%ibble< to <eat3 by <uc?sR' ;/2;>
Moreover> tryin- to a<vance t3e ball on so many <ifferent fronts simultaneously carries its o&n
ris?s. 0n $articular> it $rovi<es -overnments t3at are o$$ose< to some or all of 4as3in-tonMs
a-en<a &it3 an obvious &ay to res$on<: t3ey can NIust say no.N 0n Tamin- American :o&er> 0
labele< t3is strate-y Nbal?in->N (a term su--este< to me by Seyom 7ro&n) an< 0 ar-ue< t3at it
&as a common &ay for &ea? states to $revent a <ominant $o&er from im$osin- its &ill. 0n a
&orl< &3ere t3e =nite< States remains si-nificantly stron-er t3an any ot3er $o&er> fe& states
&ant to -et into a <irect test of stren-t3 &it3 4as3in-ton. 7ut American $o&er is not so vast
t3at it can sim$ly sna$ its fin-ers an< ex$ect everyone to <o its bi<<in-. 43yR 7ecause
exercisin- levera-e is itself costly> an< t3e more you <o in one area> t3e more latitu<e t3at
o$$onents some&3ere else are li?ely to 3ave. T3ere are still only 2/ 3ours in a <ay> an< t3e
43ite ouse canMt <evote eGual attention an< $olitical ca$ital to every issue. So states t3at <on5t
&ant to <o &3at Jbama &ants can <elay> <it3er> obfuscate> <ra- t3eir feet> or Iust say no>
?no&in- t3at t3e =nite< States <oesn5t 3ave t3e resources> attention s$an> stayin- $o&er> or
$olitical &ill to force t3eir com$liance no& or monitor it after&ar<s.
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t H ?5 @4eace -als /ill =ailA B1> 1 C 154
-!ey say t!at )eace tals 'ill fail &ecause t!e countries t!ere are focused entirely
on internal )olitics" not international relations# /e disagree#
1$ +ot! sides !ave announced 'illingness to come to t!e ta&le for successful
)eace tals#
A+C .,/S" 11
(,ana u-3es> #@o3n Cerry Announces 7rea?t3rou-3 in Mi<east :eace :rocess>' ;/1L>
3tt$://abcne&s.-o.com/blo-s/$olitics/2D1*/D;/Io3n!?erry!announces!brea?t3rou-3!in!
mi<east!$eace!$rocess/)
:alestinian an< 0sraeli officials 3ave reac3e< an a-reement t3at forms t3e basis to be-in <irect
$eace ne-otiations after nearly t3ree years> Secretary of State @o3n Cerry sai<. #T3is is a
si-nificant an< &elcome ste$ for&ar<>' Cerry tol< re$orters in Amman> @or<an> at t3e en< of 3is
&ee?!lon- Mi<<le 2ast tri$> &3ere 3e s3uttle< bet&een @or<an an< t3e 4est 7an?> meetin- &it3
Arab an< :alestinian lea<ers. Cerry <i< not visit @erusalem on t3e tri$> but :resi<ent Jbama
s$o?e by $3one &it3 0sraeli :rime Minister 7enIamin %etanya3u on T3urs<ay. T3e 43ite
ouse sai< Jbama ur-e< t3e 0sraelis #to resume ne-otiations &it3 t3e :alestinians as soon as
$ossible.' 7ot3 $arties seem &illin- to move Guic?ly on t3e next ste$. Cerry sai< 0sraeli @ustice
Minister TEi$i Bivni an< :alestinian ne-otiator Saeb 2ra?at are ex$ecte< to Ioin 3im in
4as3in-ton for more tal?s #in t3e next &ee? or so>' at &3ic3 time furt3er announcements &ill
be ma<e.
3$ ;etting 6srael and 4alestine to t!e negotiating ta&le )roves 5erry%s
a))roac! 'ill 'or#
DA60: MA60" 11
(#@o3n Cerry ta?es Mbi- ste$sM to&ar< bro?erin- <eal t3at &ill 3el$ resume t3e Mi<<le 2ast :eace
Tal?s>' ;/1L> 3tt$://&&&.<ailymail.co.u?/ne&s/article!2*;1D;1/Cerry!3el$e<!bro?er!<eal!3el$!
resume!Mi<<le!2ast!:eace!Tal?s.3tml)
=.S. Secretary of State @o3n Cerry 3as bro?ere< a ste$ for&ar< in t3e lon-!3alte< Mi<east $eace
$rocess> as 3e announce< 1ri<ay t3at 0srael an< t3e :alestinians 3ave a-ree< on a basis for
returnin- to ne-otiations. T3e statement reflecte< 3o& $ainsta?in-ly incremental movement in
t3e $rocess is> as t3e t&o si<es still 3aven5t fully a-ree< on all of t3e terms t3at &ill brin- t3em
bac? to t3e ne-otiatin- table. 43ile it a$$eare< <ee$ <ifferences over t3e -roun<&or? of tal?s
3a< been bri<-e<> t3e t&o si<es are to meet ! li?ely in t3e comin- &ee? ! to &or? out final <etails
on actually resumin- t3eir ne-otiations on t3e tou-3est issues of t3e 0sraeli!:alestinian conflict.
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t H ?5 @4eace -als /ill =ailA B 3 > 1 C 155
1$ -!e fact t!at ot!er countries in t!e Middle ,ast are distracted is a reason
t!e 6sraeli-4alestinian )rocess 'ill succeed" not fail#
S(.-S,.-6.,0" 11
(Tru<y 6ubin> #Tru<y 6ubin: JlmertMs $eace $lan s3o&s <eal in 0srael is $ossible>' 8/D1>
3tt$://articles.sun!sentinel.com/2D1*!D8!1D/ne&s/fl!trcol!israel!o$e<D81D!
2D1*D81DZ1Zolmert!$eace!$lan!former!israeli!lea<er)
1or s?e$tics &3o <oubt a $eace <eal bet&een t3e 0sraelis an< :alestinians is still $ossible>
former 0sraeli :rime Minister 23u< Jlmert ar-ue< $assionately last &ee? t3at no& is t3e
moment K an< 3is $lan is t3e ans&er. JlmertMs $lan> &3ic3 is t3e most far!reac3in- offer ever
ma<e by an 0sraeli lea<er> isnMt ne&. 0t &as $resente< to :alestinian lea<er Ma3mou< Abbas in
Se$tember 2DD.> &3en Jlmert &as in office. Abbas famously never reIecte< it> but never sai<
Nyes.N Vet> at a moment &3en Secretary of State @o3n Cerry is stru--lin- to revive $eace tal?s>
JlmertMs $lan remains t3e most realistic> one t3at Cerry s3oul< be $romotin-. Jlmert ma<e a
com$ellin- case for &3y> <es$ite t3e current Mi<east c3aos> 0srael ur-ently nee<s a $eace <eal>
no&. T3e former 0sraeli lea<er $rovi<es a fascinatin- stu<y in contrasts: a lon-time conservative
mayor of @erusalem &3o came to believe t3e city must be s3are< bet&een 0sraelis an<
:alestiniansA a member of t3e 3a&?is3 Bi?u< :arty &3o became convince< as $rime minister>
from 2DD8 to 2DDL> t3at a t&o!state solution &as essential for maintainin- a <emocratic @e&is3
state. 0Mll -et to JlmertMs $lan in a moment> but &3atMs eGually interestin- is 3is case for &3y t3e
nee< for a <eal is so ur-ent> an< t3e security ris?s so mana-eable. S$ea?in- at t3e 4oo<ro&
4ilson Center in 4as3in-ton last &ee?> 3e rebuffe< t3e claim t3at to<ayMs Mi<<le 2ast is too
unstable for 0srael to -ive bac? territory. NT3ere never &as a time in &3ic3 0srael &as (in) better
security s3a$e t3an &e are no&>N 3e insiste<. %eit3er SyriaMs 7as3ar al!Assa<> nor anyone &3o
follo&s 3im> &ill 3ave t3e $o&er or resources to fi-3t &it3 0srael for t3e foreseeable future> 3e
sai<. 2-y$tMs electe< Muslim 7rot3er3oo< lea<ers> facin- Nt3e res$onsibilities of fee<in- .D
million $eo$le>N canMt in<ul-e in military a<ventures. eEbolla3 3as been co&e< from sen<in-
roc?ets into 0srael since its &ar &it3 0srael in 2DD8. As for t3e ris? t3at a :alestinian state &oul<
become a base for roc?et fire on 0srael K as 3a$$ene< &3en 0srael &it3<re& from 9aEa K
Jlmert a<mitte< terrorism &oul< remain a <an-er but sai< N0srael can <eal &it3 it.N 7ut &3y <i<
Jlmert see suc3 an ur-ent nee< for a treatyR Jlmert fears t3at> absent a $eace treaty> future
:alestinian lea<ers may not be as mo<erate as Abbas. e also fears t3at continue< occu$ation
&ill lea< to t3e international isolation of 0srael. 0n suc3 circumstances> :alestinians may -ive u$
on t&o states an< <eman< one state &it3 eGual votin- ri-3ts for :alestinians. To -rant t3is
<eman< &oul< mean t3e en< of t3e @e&is3 state. To refuse it &oul< mean an en< to 0sraeli
<emocracy> &it3 :alestinians <e$rive< of ri-3ts.
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t H ?5 @4eace -als /ill =ailA B 1 > 1 C 152
4$ O&ama 'ill !ave to use all availa&le di)lomatic ca)ital to ac!ieve Mid-
,ast )eace#
+,.-M(6*" 11
(Alon> Senior 1ello& at %V=Ms Center for 9lobal AffairsA #CerryMs Bast ,itc3 2ffort>' 8/12>
3tt$://&&&.3uffin-ton$ost.com/alon!benmeir/?errys!last!<itc3!effortZbZ*/2.1DD.3tml)
0n 3is u$comin- visit to 0srael an< :alestine> Secretary of State @o3n Cerry &ill attem$t a last!
<itc3 effort to $ersua<e 0sraelMs :rime Minster %etanya3u an< t3e :alestinian Aut3orityMs
:resi<ent Abbas to resume $eace ne-otiations. 0f t3ere is> 3o&ever> t3e sli-3test c3ance of
-ettin- t3e t&o si<es to start tal?in- it &oul< reGuire substantial American $ressure an<
commitment to see t3e $eace $rocess t3rou-3. 9iven t3e re-ional turmoil> es$ecially in Syria>
t3e Guestion is &ill t3e =.S. be $re$are< to invest t3at muc3 time an< $olitical ca$ital on an
uncertain venture &3en it must no& focus on t3e far more ur-ent conflict t3at 3as t3e $otential
to s$ar? re-ional confla-ration.
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t H ?2 @=oreign Aid is DecliningA 158
-!ey say t!at foreign aid is declining for structural reasons" &ut # # #
1$ -!is argument !as too long a timeframe# ,ven if foreign aid is eventually
cut to t!e Middle ,ast" t!is 'ill occur after O&ama%s negotiations for t!e
)eace )rocess !ave concluded H successfully" as long as t!e )lan isn%t
allo'ed to get in t!e 'ay#
3$ -!is )roves t!e uniEueness for our disadvantage: O&ama is a&le to focus
on t!e Middle ,ast &ecause ot!er foreign )olicy commitments are &eing cut
&ac# -!e )lan undermines t!at focus &y forcing O&ama to dedicate
di)lomatic ca)ital to 0atin America#
1$ *ecent a))ointments )rove O&ama is )ressing for'ard 'it! a more
aggressive foreign )olicy#
0OS A.;,0,S -6M,S" 11
(,oyle McManus> #McManus: JbamaMs forei-n $olicy reset>' 8/DL>
3tt$://articles.latimes.com/2D1*/Iun/DL/o$inion/la!oe!mcmanus!column!obama!forei-n!
$olicy!2D1*D8DL)
T3e a$$ointment of Susan 6ice as national security a<visor sen<s an im$ortant si-nal about t3e
?in< of forei-n $olicy :resi<ent Jbama &ants to $ursue for t3e remain<er of 3is secon< term:
activist> assertive> occasionally even $u-nacious. 4it3 t3ree years to s3a$e a le-acy in &orl<
affairs> Jbama &ants to $lay offense> not <efense.
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t H ?8 @.o -rade-offA 159
-!ey say t!at t!ere is no lin &ecause ne' foreign )olicy initiatives don%t
trade-off 'it! t!e Mid-,ast )eace )rocess" &ut # # #
1$ -!is evidence does not a))ly to our 0in &ecause it says t!at O&ama can
)us! for additional issues '!en dealing 'it! a single country" not t!at !e
can )us! for multi)le issues involving multi)le countries# 6n addition to
foreign )olicy focus" our lin is a&out staff and resource trade-offs" '!ic!
do not occur '!en only a single country is involved# Secretary of State
5erry can tal to *ussia a&out security and rig!ts" &ut !e cannot nearly as
easily tal to *ussia a&out security A.D Mexico a&out rig!ts#
3$ -!is evidence isn%t s)ecific to our )lan# 6t is referring to &eing a&le to
)us! for !uman rig!ts in foreign )olicy generally" and self-interested
security generally# .eit!er of t!ese t'o conce)ts directly a))ly to our )lan
or to t!e Mid-,ast )eace negotiations#
1$ =unding is finite and cannot &e created# -!e )lan 'ill !ave to trade-off
'it! decreases in ot!er )rograms#
.,/ :O*5 -6M,S" 11
(Ste$3en Bee Myers> staff &riterA #1orei-n Ai< Set to Ta?e a it in =.S. 7u<-et Crisis>' 1D/D*>
3tt$://&&&.nytimes.com/2D11/1D/D//us/$olitics/forei-n!ai<!set!to!ta?e!3it!in!unite<!states!
bu<-et!crisis.3tmlR$a-e&ante<ballXZrb1X)
America5s bu<-et crisis at 3ome is forcin- t3e first si-nificant cuts in overseas ai< in nearly t&o
<eca<es> a retrenc3ment t3at officials an< a<vocates say reflects t3e country5s <iminis3in-
ability to influence t3e &orl<. As la&ma?ers scramble to trim t3e s&ellin- national <ebt> bot3
t3e 6e$ublican!controlle< ouse an< t3e ,emocrat!controlle< Senate 3ave $ro$ose< slas3in-
financin- for t3e State ,e$artment an< its relate< ai< a-encies at a time of <es$erate
3umanitarian crises an< uncertain $olitical <evelo$ments. T3e $ro$osals 3ave raise< t3e s$ecter
of <ee$ cuts in foo< an< me<icine for Africa> in relief for <isaster!affecte< $laces li?e :a?istan
an< @a$an> in $olitical an< economic assistance for t3e ne& <emocracies of t3e Mi<<le 2ast> an<
even for t3e :eace Cor$s. T3e financial crunc3 t3reatens to un<ermine a forei-n $olicy
<escribe< as #smart $o&er' by :resi<ent Jbama an< Secretary of State illary 6o<3am Clinton>
one t3at em$3asiEes <i$lomacy an< <evelo$ment as a com$lement to American military $o&er.
0t also &oul< be-in to reverse t3e increase in forei-n ai< t3at :resi<ent 9eor-e 4. 7us3
su$$orte< after t3e attac?s of Se$t. 11> 2DD1> as $art of an effort to combat t3e roots of
extremism an< anti!American sentiment> es$ecially in t3e most trouble< countries. 9iven t3e
relatively small forei-n ai< bu<-et K it accounts for 1 $ercent of fe<eral s$en<in- over all K t3e
effect of t3e cuts coul< be <is$ro$ortional.
0#1
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t H ?9 @4lan Clears Small 6ssuesA 15<
-!ey say t!at t!e )lan !el)s get smaller issues out of t!e 'ay" increasing
s)ace for Mid-,ast )eace" &ut # # #
1$ Our 0in !a))ens faster t!an t!eir turn# -!e Middle ,ast )eace
negotiations 'ill tae )lace '!ile O&ama and !is staff are in 0atin America
'oring out details for t!e )lan# ,ven if di)lomatic ca)ital is increased
later" our im)acts of a failed )eace )rocess !a))en in t!e s!ort-term#
3$ -!is evidence is a&out domestic issues lie gun control and immigration
)olicy" not foreign )olicy victories# 6t im)lies t!at a trade-off can &e avoided
&ecause different staff and resources are &eing used for t!e domestic
)olitical &attles#
1$ -!e )lan 'ould not turn out to &e a small issue" &ecause t!e sim)lest
actions &ecome t!e most time-consuming and ultimately drive every ot!er
foreign )olicy item to failure#
/A0-" 7<
0n On War> Carl von Clause&itE famously <escribe< &3at 3e terme< t3e NfrictionN of &arfareA
t3e accumulate< set of minor obstacles an< acci<ents t3at ma<e even t3e sim$lest of obIectives
<ifficult to ac3ieve. T3e same $roblem can arise in forei-n $olicy: even &3en everyt3in- is
sim$le> Nt3e sim$lest t3in-s are very <ifficult.N States t3at o$$ose &3at t3e =nite< States is
tryin- to <o 3ave lots of &ays of increasin- t3at friction &it3out tri--erin- an actual crisis. 0n
ot3er &or<s> JbamaMs forei-n $olicy may fail not because 3e loses some <ramatic confrontation>
but sim$ly because a &3ole array of &ea?er actors mana-e to -rin< 3im <o&n. 0n t3is scenario
3e <oesnMt -et vanGuis3e<> Iust Nnibble< to <eat3 by <uc?s.N
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t H ?< @-als /ill =ailA 127
-!ey say t!at t!e disad is non-uniEue &ecause 6srael and 4alestine aren%t
)us!ing for )eace" &ut # # #
1$ -!ese tals 'ill &e different &ecause every )arty is 'illing" and )revious
o&stacles are no longer in t!e 'ay# Our /ASH6.;-O. 4OS- evidence on
t!is )oint is more recent and from a more res)ected )u&lication#
3$ 5erry%s negotiating strategy is )ursuing t!e !ig!ly )o)ular t'o-state
solution#
+,.-M(6*" 11
(Alon> Senior 1ello& at %V=Ms Center for 9lobal AffairsA #CerryMs Bast ,itc3 2ffort>' 8/12>
3tt$://&&&.3uffin-ton$ost.com/alon!benmeir/?errys!last!<itc3!effortZbZ*/2.1DD.3tml)
0<eally> Mr. Cerry s3oul< be able to $ersua<e bot3 %etanya3u an< Abbas to aban<on any
$recon<itions> clearly i<entify t3e conflictin- issues> t3e or<er in &3ic3 t3ey s3oul< be
ne-otiate<> an< a timeframe to $revent $rotracte< ne-otiations. Startin- &it3 bor<ers &oul<
clearly be t3e most $ractical &ay> as ne-otiatin- bor<ers first &oul< <efine t3e $arameters of t3e
:alestinian state> &3ic3 is t3e sin-le most im$ortant issue to be a-ree< u$on. Moreover> an
a-reement on bor<ers &oul< resolve at least ;5 $ercent of t3e settlement $roblemA establis3in-
t3e extent of t3e lan< s&a$ &oul< also <emonstrate t3e seriousness of bot3 si<es to reac3 an
a-reement. An American $resence at t3e ne-otiatin- table at all times &oul< <emonstrably s3o&
&3ic3 si<e> if any> is in<ee< committe< to reac3in- an a-reement. T3e failure to a-ree on suc3
$rinci$le< rules of en-a-ement s3oul< leave no <oubt as to &3ere %etanya3u an< Abbas stan<.
T3e irony 3ere is t3at re$eate< $olls ta?en <urin- t3e $ast <eca<e consistently s3o& t3at a
maIority of 0sraelis an< :alestinians &ant $eace base< on a t&o!state solution. Vet bot3
%etanya3u an< Abbas are <elayin- t3e inevitable> $er3a$s at a terrible cost in bloo< an<
treasure to t3eir $eo$le.
/FF
Di)lomatic Ca)ital Disadvantage Affirmative 121
2AC 1rontline: ,i$lomatic Ca$ital ,isa<vanta-e.......................................................................182
CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 2/C Fro!tli!e
/FF
3AC =rontline: Di)lomatic Ca)ital Disadvantage 123
1$ ,m)irically denied# -!eir uniEueness evidence is a&out current
negotiations &et'een 6srael and t!e 4alestinian Aut!ority" &ut t!eir im)act
evidence is from 1<<<# ,scalation and t!e ultimate im)acts t!ey claim
s!ould !ave !a))ened over t!e )ast 15 years" since 'e !aven%t !ad a
successful )eace )rocess in t!at time#
3$ .on-(niEue: O&ama is trying to get out of t!e Middle ,ast#
-H, .A-6O.A0" 11
(Mic3ael Voun-> #=S influence in t3e re-ion is <&in<lin- un<er Jbama>' 8/1*>
3tt$://&&&.t3enational.ae/t3enationalconversation/comment/us!influence!in!t3e!re-ion!is!
<&in<lin-!un<er!obama/)
4as3in-ton 3as be3ave< ambi-uously to&ar<s Sau but 3as <one not3in- to $revent
it. Jn 0ran an< its nuclear $ro-ramme> t3e =S 3as im$ose< sanctions> but continues to avoi<
any resort to &ar. Mr Jbama 3as s3o&n little interest in t3e re-ion> so t3e Sau<is see a $resi<ent
u$on &3om t3ey feel t3ey cannot rely. T3is 3as 3an<ica$$e< AmericaMs ability to enrol t3e
Sau<is in its <i$lomatic ventures> above all $eace tal?s bet&een t3e 0sraelis an< :alestinians. Mr
JbamaMs initial &illin-ness to <e$en< on an alternative country> Tur?ey> to 3el$ a<vance
American re-ional interests 3as faile<> as Tur?is3 limitations in t3e Syrian conflict 3ave become
evi<ent. T3e notion t3at America can lea< from be3in< is a fantasy. 4it3out America in t3e
van-uar< im$osin- a common a-en<a> t3ere &ill be only caco$3ony as AmericaMs allies $ursue
se$arate aims. %o&3ere 3as t3is been more obvious t3an in Syria> &it3 Patar an< Tur?ey
su$$ortin- some rebel factions> an< t3e Sau<is bac?in- t3eir rivals. 9one are t3e <ays of t3e
1LLDs &3en t3e =S 3el< all t3e reins in t3e Mi<<le 2ast. T3en> t3e re-ional arc3itecture &as
built on t3e combination of a frien<ly 2-y$t t3at $laye< a vital role in bolsterin- American
re-ional <i$lomacy> Sau &3ic3 stea<ie< t3e ener-y mar?ets> an< 0srael> &3ic3 &as
AmericaMs foremost military arm in t3e re-ion> an< &3ose conflict &it3 t3e Arabs &as su$$ose<
to be resolve< t3rou-3 an American!s$onsore< $eace $rocess.
1$ Case Out'eig!s: Our Harms scenarios !ave larger im)acts t!an t!eir
Disadvantage# +y solving for our Harms" 'e are sto))ing glo&al 'ar# ,ven if
t!ey 'in t!eir im)act" it is only a regional 'ar t!at !as never escalated
&ecause every country in t!e Middle ,ast is deterred from attacing t!e
ot!ers#
/FF
4$ -urn: /inners /in# Ot!er countries are already &aclas!ing against
O&ama# -!e )lan )rovides a foreign )olicy victory t!at 'ill creates more
di)lomatic ca)ital for O&ama#
/A0-" 7<
Jbama too? office &it3 ener-y> a ne& vision> an ex$erience< team> an< len-t3y Nto!<oN list. 7ut
one can alrea<y sense t3e for&ar< motion slo&in-> &3ic3 &ill encoura-e o$$onents to <i- t3eir
3eels in <ee$er an< t3ro& more obstacles in 3is $at3. 0f t3e a<ministration ?ee$s tryin- to <o
everyt3in- at once> t3ere is a real <an-er t3at t3eir actual forei-n $olicy ac3ievements &ill be
Guite mo<est. T3e sooner t3ey <eci<e &3ic3 -oals t3ey t3in? t3ey can actually brin- off> an<
focus t3eir ener-ies t3ere> t3e more li?ely t3ey are to succee<. An< a fe& tan-ible successes no&
mi-3t actually ma?e t3e ot3er items on t3eir a-en<a easier to accom$lis3 later on.
5$ .o 6nternal 0in: ,very Middle ,astern country is com)letely focused on
domestic issues and 'on%t 'or for )eace#
AM,*6CA. 6.-,*,S-" 11
(C3uc? 1reilic3A Senior 1ello&> 0nternational Security :ro-ram at arvar<> #:rocee< 4it3
Caution>' 1/D2> 3tt$://t3e!american!interest.com/article.cfmR$ieceb1*L5)
Moreover> American influence in t3e re-ion is at a <eca<es!lon- na<ir an< t3e =nite< States is
$reoccu$ie< &it3 formi<able <omestic c3allen-es. 2uro$e is in even &orse s3a$e> an< t3e
ne&est iteration of t3e 3istoric Arab A&a?enin- continues to roc? t3e re-ion. As im$ortant as
0sraeli!:alestinian $eace is> t3e $ressin- issues in 2D1* are t3e events in t3e Arab countries an<
0ran. T3e mantra> t3at 0sraeli!:alestinian $eace is essential to a<<ress t3e re-ionMs ot3er ills>
&3ic3 never 3el< more t3an a ?ernel of trut3> soun<s even more off ?ey to<ay. 2-y$t is in t3e
mi<st of an on-oin- revolution t3at &ill $robably lea<> at best> to a severe <eterioration in
relations &it3 t3e =nite< States an< 0srael> an< $ossibly to t3e en< of t3e Marc3 1L;L $eace
treaty. Syria is li?ely to become a ra<ical 0slamist state> if it even remains unifie<> an< its violent
final 3ours &ill overs3a<o& any $eace $rocess <i$lomacy. 0ran5s nuclear $ro-ram is t3e $rimary
issue in t3e re-ion> alon- &it3 Sunni!S3i]a anta-onisms t3at are no& bein- militariEe< in an<
aroun< Syria. @or<an is unli?ely to remain t3e only Arab country at $eace &it3 0srael if 2-y$t
abro-ates its $eace treaty. Almost all countries of t3e #Arab &orl<'> a misnomer if t3ere ever &as
one> face -rave <omestic crises so t3at t3eir interest an< ability to $lay a mo<eratin- influence
over t3e :alestinians is even more insi-nificant t3an in t3e $ast.
/FF
2$ .on-(niEue: Overall foreign assistance to every region is declining no'#
HO456.S" 37 77
(6aymon<> :rofessor of :olitical Science at S&art3moreA #:JB0T0CAB 2CJ%JMV J1
1J6209% A0,>' 3tt$://&&&.s&art3more.e<u/SocSci/r3o$?in1/researc3/:ol2con1A.$<f)
T3e <ecline in forei-n ai< occurre< for six reasons. 1irst> t3e en< of t3e col< &ar ma<e it less
im$ortant. Secon<> -lobalisation attenuate< ai< tie< to colonial interests. T3ir<> -ro&in- bu<-et
$ressures sGueeEe< <onor resources. 1ourt3> <isa$$ointment &it3 t3e effectiveness of ai<
&ea?ene< $o$ular su$$ort. 1ift3> <onor country s$ecial interest coalitions su$$ortin- ai<
unravelle<. 1inally> neo!liberal $3iloso$3ies c3allen-e< some of t3e intellectual foun<ations of
ai<. A brief elaboration of t3ese reasons follo&s.
8$ .o 0in: -!ere is no trade-off in )ressing for more issues# Adding
democracy and !uman rig!ts issues to O&ama%s agenda can mae ot!er
security issues more successful#
CA06.;A,*-" 13
(,aniel> 2xecutive +ice :resi<ent for 1ree<om ouseA #6et3in?in- =.S. 6elations 4it3
,ictators>' 1D/1D> 3tt$://&&&.free<om3ouse.or-/blo-/ret3in?in-!us!relations!<ictators)
=.S. relations &it3 aut3oritarian re-imes often focus on a tra<e!off bet&een security an<
economic interests on t3e one 3an< an< 3uman ri-3ts an< <emocracy on t3e ot3er. 7y acce$tin-
t3is bar-ain> &3ic3 <ictators often $roffer> =.S. $olicyma?ers ten< to miss o$$ortunities to raise
3uman ri-3ts issues an< t3ereby contribute to bot3 t3e ex$ansion of <emocracy an< =.S.
interests in t3e lon- term. A -rou$ of 22 lea<in- 3uman ri-3ts or-aniEations an< ex$erts>
inclu<in- 1ree<om ouse> 3ave ur-e< t3e next =.S. $resi<ent to loo? $ast t3e false c3oice
bet&een values an< interests an< revie& =.S. relations3i$s &it3 -overnments t3at violate
3uman ri-3ts. 4e believe t3at t3e =nite< States s3oul< sto$ un<erestimatin-> or refusin- to use>
its $o&er an< moral ca$ital to ?ee$ 3uman ri-3ts on t3e a-en<a. 6ecent 3istory am$ly
<emonstrates 3o& t3e =nite< States can raise 3uman ri-3ts concerns &3ile $ursuin- security
interests at t3e same time. 0n t3e 1L.Ds> =.S. $ressure at critical moments on allie<
-overnments in t3e :3ili$$ines> C3ile> Tai&an> an< Sout3 Corea assiste< t3eir transitions from
<ictators3i$ to <emocracy. T3e =nite< States also ?e$t 3uman ri-3ts on t3e a-en<a in its
ne-otiations &it3 t3e Soviet =nion an< still ma<e $ro-ress in nuclear arms re<uctions. =.S.
o$$osition to totalitarian i<eolo-y an< su$$ort for <issi<ents contribute< to t3e fall of
communism. T3ese lessons of 3istory seem to 3ave been lost in t3e Mi<<le 2ast an< else&3ere.
,eca<es of coEy relations &it3 Arab <ictators blin<e< =.S. $olicyma?ers to t3e -roun<s&ell of
<isaffection t3at eventually launc3e< t3e 2D11 Arab u$risin-s> an< <i< lastin- <ama-e to =.S.
cre<ibility in t3e eyes of Arab revolutionaries. 7y clin-in- to t3e mista?en belief t3at soft!
$e<<lin- on 3uman ri-3ts &as t3e $rice to $ay for influence an< stability in t3e re-ion> t3e
=nite< States ultimately obtaine< neit3er.
/FF
9$ -urn: -!e )lan gets smaller issues out of t!e 'ay" allo'ing O&ama to
increase !is di)lomatic ca)ital else'!ere#
S/,6;" 11
(@ulia> %elson an< ,avi< 6oc?efeller senior fello& for Batin America stu<ies an< <irector for
Batin America stu<ies at t3e Council on 1orei-n 6elationsA #9ettin- Batin America 6i-3t>' 1/D2>
3tt$://nationalinterest.or-/article/-ettin-!latin!america!ri-3t!;..DR$a-eb8)
2ven if Jbama sto$s s3ort of a full!t3roate< <ebate about le-aliEin- or <ecriminaliEin- <ru-s>
Mexico> Central America an< t3e Caribbean &ill face fe&er -un!relate< <eat3s an< see t3e
=nite< States as a more serious $artner in &ea?enin- transnational criminal net&or?s if t3e
$resi<ent beefs u$ re-ulation an< enforcement efforts $ertainin- to -un sales> tracin- an<
traffic?in-. e s3oul< su$$ort California senator ,ianne 1einstein5s $lan to reinstate t3e
assault!&ea$ons ban> an< 3e s3oul< $us3 ratification of =.S. members3i$ in t3e inter!American
convention on arms traffic?in-. ,es$ite t3e %6A5s $re<ictable assertions t3at suc3 moves &oul<
re$resent an erosion of Secon< Amen<ment ri-3ts> t3e $resi<ent &oul< 3ave t3e bi$artisan
su$$ort of mayors> -overnors> state le-islators an< la&!enforcement officials across t3e country.
4it3 serious initiatives on Cuba an< -uns> bac?e< u$ by 3is no&!state< interest in $ursuin- a
maIor secon<!term move on immi-ration> t3e $resi<ent can free u$ consi<erable <i$lomatic
ca$ital in t3e re-ion to focus on issues t3at really matter. T3e Jbama a<ministration seems to
reco-niEe t3at t3e maIor re-ional issues are not $roblems 4as3in-ton can fix alone but rat3er
transnational c3allen-es t3at t3e =nite< States faces &it3 ot3er nations of t3e AmericasK
&3et3er ener-y security> e<ucation> social inclusion> -lobal com$etitiveness> climate c3an-e>
citiEen security> or C3ina5s $olitical an< economic rise. :ara<oxically> at a moment &3en Batin
Americans 3ave never been more co-niEant of t3eir 3uman ties to boomin- Batino $o$ulations
in t3e =nite< States> most of t3e resilient <emocracies an< -ro&in- economies of t3e re-ion
$riEe t3eir autonomy an< <o notK&it3 t3e exce$tion of aitiKex$ect bi-!tic?et assistance
$ac?a-es 4as3in-ton cannot affor<. T3us> by c3oosin- to slay t3e <omestic $olitical <ra-ons
t3at be<evile< 3is first term> Jbama can create t3e runnin- room to ali-n 3is analysis &it3
$olicies t3at finally reflect ne& re-ional realities as &ell as 3is country5s national interest.
/FF
<$ .o 6nternal 0in: 4eace tals 'ill fail &ecause neit!er 6srael nor
4alestine 'ill agree to )us! for )eace#
AM,*6CA. 6.-,*,S-" 11
(C3uc? 1reilic3A Senior 1ello&> 0nternational Security :ro-ram at arvar<> #:rocee< 4it3
Caution>' 1/D2> 3tt$://t3e!american!interest.com/article.cfmR$ieceb1*L5)
T3e timin- for rene&e< tal?s coul< not be less o$$ortune. A maIor ne& American initiative is
almost certain to fail. 43at :resi<ent Clinton coul< not ac3ieve in 2DDD at Cam$ ,avi< an<
un<er t3e NClinton :arametersN> on t3e basis of 23u< 7ara?5s <ramatic $eace $ro$osals> an<
&3at :resi<ent 9eor-e 4. 7us3 coul< not ac3ieve in 2DD.> on t3e basis of 23u< JlmertMs
eGually far!reac3in- initiative> :resi<ent Jbama &ill not succee< in <oin- to<ay. 1rom virtually
every $ossible $ers$ective> con<itions are far less con<ucive no& t3an before. 0srael is le< by a
3ar<line :remier &3o 3as s3o&n little &illin-ness to com$romise> an< &3ose ne& coalition>
even if some&3at more mo<erate overall> is li?ely to be stalemate< on maIor forei-n $olicy
issues. T3e :alestinians are <ivi<e<> $ossibly irretrievably> bet&een a ra<ical 0slamist 9aEa an< a
fec?less :A in t3e 4est 7an?. So lon- as t3is remains t3e case> it is unli?ely t3at t3e :alestinians
coul< reac3> let alone <eliver on> any conseGuential a-reement. Moreover> t3ere is reason to
<oubt &3et3er Ma3mou< Abbas> &3o faile< to even res$on< to JlmertMs <ramatic $ro$osals>
truly see?s $eace.
Chi!a Disad$a!tage
0#1
C!ina Disadvantage .egative 128
1%C S3ell: C3ina ,isa<vanta-e................................................................................................... 18.
2%C 2xtensions: A/t ! "1 #Batin America 0sn5t Cey'...................................................................1;2
2%C 2xtensions: A/t ! "2#=.S. Juts$en<s C3ina'......................................................................1;*
2%C 2xtensions: A/t ! "* #%o Bin?' (1/2)...................................................................................1;/
2%C 2xtensions: A/t ! "/ #e-emony Turn' (1/2).....................................................................1;8
2%C 2xtensions: A/t ! "5 #%o 2scalation'..................................................................................1;.
2%C 2xtensions: A/t ! "8 #C3inese 0nvestment is =nsustainable'.............................................1;L
2%C 2xtensions: A/t ! "; #C3inese A--ression Turn' (1/*).......................................................1.D
2%C 2xtensions: A/t ! ". #Corru$tion Turn'..............................................................................1.*
:lan!S$ecific Bin?: Mexico.......................................................................................................... 1./
:lan!S$ecific Bin?: Cuba.............................................................................................................. 1.5
T2S0S: C3ina is emer-inas a su$er!$o&er to matc3 or even sur$ass t3e
stren-t3 of t3e =nite< States. T3is transition is occurrin- $eacefully> in $art
because C3ina is able to ex$an< its en-a-ement into formerly =.S. <ominate<
re-ions li?e Batin America> &it3out feelin- li?e its bein- c3ec?e< by t3e =.S.
T3e $lan> as a maIor ne& en-a-ement initiative in Batin America> &ill be
$erceive< by C3ina as a containment move> an< &ill $us3 C3ina <o&n an
a--ressive> 3ostile> com$etitive $at3 in t3is century> eventually lea<in- to
miscalculation bet&een t3e =.S. an< C3ina an< &orl< &ar.
Chi!a Disad$a!tage
0#1
1.C S!ell: C!ina Disadvantage 129
A$ (niEueness: C!ina is engaging 'it! 0atin America in order to &uild
international su))ort for a )eaceful rise#
C,SA*6." 11
(Ser-io Marcelo> visitin- $rofessor of Asian Stu<ies at Torcuato ,i Tella
=niversity in 7uenos Aires> #2%T26 T2 ,6A9J%R C3ina5s :resence in Batin America>' ;/D;>
3tt$://&&&.&ilsoncenter.or-/$ublication/enter!t3e!<ra-on!c3inas!$resence!latin!america)
,ifferent factors 3ave influence< t3e C3ina!Batin America relations3i$. 1irst> alt3ou-3 Batin
America <oes not re$resent a forei-n $olicy $riority for C3ina> t3e re-ion is an im$ortant $layer
in a com$lex -lobal -ame of strate-ic balancin- &it3 t3e =nite< States. . . . BAC5s (Batin
American countries5) affinity to&ar< C3ina $rovi<es $olitical su$$ort an< -ives C3ina a sense of
$layin- as a #bi- $o&er' in t3e international arena. Secon<> Batin America is a <i$lomatic
battlefiel< &3ere C3ina fi-3ts a-ainst Tai&an. Almost 3alf of t3e states t3at reco-niEe Tai$ei are
Central American countries> in a<<ition to :ara-uay in t3e Sout3ern Cone. 2ven so> Batin
America remains one of C3ina5s main instruments for ero<in-
Tai&an5s international status an< forcin- t3e islan< to ne-otiate a reunification timetable. T3ir<>
C3ina5s risin- -lobal influence $rovi<es Batin American countries &it3 an o$$ortunity to ma?e
t3eir o&n a<Iustments in forei-n $olicy in or<er to -ain autonomy an< ne-otiation ca$acity in
t3e international arena an< counterbalance =.S. $o&er in t3e re-ion. T3e $erce$tion amon-
many Batin American countries t3at =.S. forei-n $olicy &ea?ens t3e re-ion> as &ell as
&i<es$rea< criticism of &3at is seen by BAC as t3e 3emis$3eric 3e-emon> 3ave fostere< a
forei-n $olicy base< on multi!$olarity an< t3e searc3 for ne&> non!tra<itional allies in t3e &orl<.
7ot3 Cuba an< +eneEuela are currently en-a-e< in <ee$er $olitical an< economic relations3i$s
&it3 t3e #Asian ,ra-on.' A more mo<erate a$$roac3 3as been a<o$te< by 7raEil> Ar-entina>
:eru> an< Mexico. . . . Alt3ou-3 C3ina5s -oals are not to c3allen-e =.S. interests in Batin
America> it is involve< &it3 t3e Cuban transition> is be3in<Kor at least fully su$$ortive ofKt3e
ra<icaliEation of u-o C3TveE5s #oil <i$lomacy>' an< is $uttin- more $olitical an< economic
$ressure on Central American countries t3at reco-niEe Tai&an. C3ina mixes t3e carrot an< t3e
stic? by offerin- financial coo$eration an< official <evelo$ment assistance (J,A)>
Chi!a Disad$a!tage
0#1
[Evidence continues next page]
Chi!a Disad$a!tage
0#1
1.C S!ell: C!ina Disadvantage 12<
[esarin evidence continues]
. . . . ,urin- t3e last <eca<e> C3ina 3as successfully $ursue< an a--ressive ima-e!buil<in- $olicy.
Confucian -lobalism> t3e $ur$orte< existence of a 3armonious society> an< t3e ima-e of C3ina
as a multicultural country 3ave $rove< to be useful r3etorical tools to -ain su$$ort for C3ina5s
emer-in- economic an< $olitical -lobal status. :olitical <iscourse an< t3e -overnment5s
$romul-ation of t3e i<ea of C3ina5s #$eaceful risin-' try to counter ne-ative $erce$tions about
its military em$o&erment an< -ro&in- international $olitical influence. C3ina 3as been
successful in s3a$in- a re$utation as a res$onsible &orl< lea<er. As a result of 3i-3 $rofile
<i$lomacy> C3ina is no& $erceive< as a constructive $o&er committe< to t3e maintenance of
international $eace an< stability.
Chi!a Disad$a!tage
0#1
+$ 0in: C!ina is ex)anding its engagement 'it! 0atin America &ecause of
(#S# disengagement t!ere# (#S# engagement riss generating !ostile" Cold
/ar lie com)etition &et'een t!e (#S# and C!ina in 0atin America#
/A-SO." 11
(Cynt3ia> ,irector of t3e 2lectives :ro-ram an< &as Associate ,ean at t3e %ational
4ar Colle-e from 1LL; t3rou-3 2DD2> #2%T26 T2 ,6A9J%R C3ina5s :resence in Batin America>' ;/D;>
3tt$://&&&.&ilsoncenter.or-/$ublication/enter!t3e!<ra-on!c3inas!$resence!latin!america)
7eiIin- $robably mi-3t not 3ave increase< its role in Batin America 3a< t3e Mi<<le 2ast not been a maIor
<istraction for 4as3in-ton over t3e $ast five an< a 3alf years. 4as3in-ton 3as &ante< 7eiIin- to
mo<erniEe its economy. T3is &as boun< to create more economic> <i$lomatic> an< tra<e $ro&ess for
C3ina as it 3as reac3e< beyon< t3e isolationism of t3e Cultural 6evolution> $articularly in t3e ne&ly
-lobaliEe< &orl<. 0n many &ays> 7eiIin-5s increase< involvement in Batin America reflects t3e
unantici$ate< conseGuence of -ettin- &3at t3e 4est 3o$e< for from C3ina. 7ut> t3e inability of
4as3in-ton to consi<er anyt3in- beyon< t3e concerns about terrorism s$rea<in- aroun< t3e &orl<> an<
tryin- to salva-e a $eace of some sort &it3out nuclear &ea$ons in t3e Mi<<le 2ast> is 3avin- conseGuences
for =.S. interests in ot3er $arts of t3e &orl<. 1or cultural an< -eo-ra$3ic reasons> t3e ties bet&een t3e
=nite< States an< Batin America ou-3t to be stron-er t3an t3ose bet&een C3ina an< t3e Batins.
2x$ectations of t3e stren-t3 of Batin AmericaF=.S. ties 3ave $robably al&ays been unrealistic an< fran?ly
a3istoricalA t3e t&o $arts of t3e &orl< actually 3ave a number of fun<amental <ifferences. 7ut t3e <istance
bet&een Batin America5s ex$eriences an< t3ose of C3ina are even vaster> ran-in- from reli-ion to et3nic
3omo-eneity to 3istorical roles in t3e &orl<. 4as3in-ton must ma?e a more concerte< effort to act as a
-enuine $artner &it3 t3e re-ion> rat3er t3an rele-atin- it to t3e $osition of secon<ary or tertiary t3ou-3t
t3at assumes absolute =.S. lea<ers3i$. T3e =nite< States an< C3ina claim t3at eac3 is serious about
a<o$tin- t3e economic $3iloso$3y t3at un<er-ir<s ca$italism: economic -ro&t3 is a net benefit for all> not
a Eero sum -ame. 0f true> C3ina> Batin America> an< t3e =nite< States benefit from t3e -reater C3inese
en-a-ement in t3is re-ion because it creates com$etition. :ure economic t3eory> 3o&ever> al&ays runs u$
a-ainst $olitical $3iloso$3ies> lea<in- to tra<e conflicts> $rotectionism> an< all!too!often a Eero sum vie&
base< on t3e international relations t3eory of real$oliti?: &3at5s -oo< for my a<versary must be ba< for
me. T3e ris?s of arousin- real$oliti? in t3e =nite< States> $articularly as t3e nation faces increase<
frustration &it3 t3e reality of t3e Mi<<le 2ast> is si-nificant> $robably more t3an t3e :6C bar-aine< for
&3en it be-an en-a-in- more &it3 Batin America over t3e $ast <eca<e. 0t a$$ears unli?ely t3at 7eiIin-
&ill seriously accelerate its involvement in t3e re-ion because of t3e number of Con-ressional 3earin-s>
$ublic conferences an< assessments> an< ot3er &arnin-s alertin- t3e =nite< States to C3ina 3avin-
<iscovere< Batin America. To accelerate its involvement &oul< ris? t3e relatively stron- relations &it3
4as3in-ton at a time &3en ot3er tra<e $roblems an< overall concerns about C3ina5s -ro&in- $o&er are
alrea<y risin- in t3e =nite< States. At t3e same time> 4as3in-ton5s ability to focus eGually on all areas of
t3e &orl< is not $ossible. 4it3 =.S. interests <irecte< else&3ere> it seems 3i-3ly li?ely t3at 7eiIin- &ill be
able to maintain t3e level of involvement in t3e re-ion it alrea<y 3as> &it3out 4as3in-ton raisin- too
-reat a ruc?us. 0n<ee<> 7eiIin-5s best outcome from its current balance of involvement in t3e area is
$robably -oin- to be t3e lon-!term <evelo$ment of trust an< ties over several <eca<es &it3 t3e lea<ers of
t3is re-ion> rat3er t3an imme<iately creatin- crucial> 3i-3ly $ublic ties bet&een itself an< Batin American
lea<ers. As so often a$$ears true in t3e international system> $robably t3e ol< tale of t3e tortoise an< 3are
a$$lies 3ere> &3ere C3ina5s bi--est -ain &ill be accom$lis3e< over a lon- time of -ettin- to ?no& t3e
re-ion> rat3er t3an s3o&in- u$ re$eate<ly in t3e ]roc? star5 role &3ic3 is too soon an< too ras3 for a lon-!
term> stable set of ties. 4as3in-ton seems li?ely to &orry about t3e roc? star $3enomenon> rat3er t3an
Chi!a Disad$a!tage
0#1
attem$tin- to mana-e t3e emer-ence of anot3er state becomin- a lon-!term $artner &it3 its Batin
American nei-3bors. 4as3in-ton s3oul< not blame 7eiIin- for movin- into an area ma<e attractive
because of 3istoric an< current absence of consistent =.S. $olicies.
Chi!a Disad$a!tage
0#1
C$ 6nternal 0in: C!ina is o&sessed 'it! (#S# foreign )olicy# ,ven minor
s!ifts to'ard control 'ill cause overreactions and alliances designed to
counter&alance (#S# interests#
=OO-" 72
(6osemary> :rofessor of 0nternational 6elations> an< t3e @o3n S&ire Senior 6esearc3 1ello& at
St AntonyMs Colle-e> Jxfor< =niversity> #C3inese strate-ies in a =S!3e-emonic -lobal or<er:
accommo<atin- an< 3e<-in->' 0nternational Affairs .)
C3ina is neit3er $art of> nor <etermine<ly see?in- to buil<> anti!3e-emonic coalitions.
ConseGuently> ot3er emer-in- states suc3 as 7raEil> 0n<ia or 6ussia s3oul< not ex$ect too muc3
in t3e &ay of sustaine< coo$eration from C3ina on t3is front> assumin- t3ey are intereste< in
formin- suc3 coalitions. 0t is unli?ely to stic? out for ne-otiatin- $ositions t3at t3e =S &oul< see
as seriously <etrimental to its interests. T3is a$$roac3 seems li?ely to c3an-e only &ere C3ina to
become convince< t3at it face< sustaine< =S 3ostility. 7eiIin-5s lea<ers remain $reoccu$ie< &it3
t3eir relations3i$ &it3 t3e =S> u @intao re$orte<ly <escribin- America in 2DD2 as t3e ]central
t3rea< in C3ina5s forei-n $olicy strate-y5. A conseGuence of t3is $reoccu$ation is t3at its strate-y
is fixe< only in t3e broa<est of terms> an< lar-ely remains contin-ent on &3at is <eci<e< in
4as3in-ton as a reaction to C3ina5s rise. 7eiIin-5s $olicy> t3erefore> is not <etermine< sim$ly by
ineGualities in t3e <istribution of $o&er: it is not =S 3e-emony as suc3 t3at influences C3ina5s
$olicies> but 3o& t3at 3e-emonic $osition is use<> es$ecially &it3 reference to C3ina itself.
D$ 6m)act: Counter&alancing leads to great )o'er 'ars '!ic! 'ill cause
extinction#
.:," <7
(@ose$3> ,ean of Cenne<y Sc3ool of 9overnment at arvar<> 7oun< to Bea<> $. 1;)
:erce$tions of c3an-e in t3e relative $o&er of nations are of critical im$ortance to
un<erstan<in- t3e relations3i$ bet&een <ecline an< &ar. Jne of t3e ol<est -eneraliEations about
international $olitics attributes t3e onset of maIor &ars to s3ifts in $o&er amon- t3e lea<in-
nations. T3us T3ucy<i<es accounte< for t3e onset of t3e :elo$onnesian 4ar> &3ic3 <estroye<
t3e $o&er of ancient At3ens. T3e 3istory of t3e interstate system since 15DD is $unctuate< by
severe &ars in &3ic3 one country stru--le< to sur$ass anot3er as t3e lea<in- state. 0f> as 6obert
9il$in ar-ues> #international $olitics 3as not c3an-e< fun<amentally over t3e millennia>' t3e
im$lications for t3e future are blea?. An< if fears about s3iftin- $o&er $reci$itate a maIor &ar in
a &orl< &it3 5D>DDD nuclear &ea$ons> 3istory> as &e ?no& it may en<.
CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 #+te!sio!s
Chi!a Disad$a!tage 1/14
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t - ?1 @0atin America 6sn%t 5eyA 183
-!ey say 0atin America isn%t im)ortant enoug! to cause conflict" &ut # # #
1$ C!ina is )eacefully ex)anding into ne' regions lie 0atin America '!ere
t!e (nited States is no longer )resent# -!ey need to ex)and t!eir s)!ere of
influence in order to develo) and create international ties" or else t!ey 'ill
turn &ac to !ard-line unilateral )olicies t!at t!reaten glo&al sta&ility#
,xtend our C,SA*6. evidence#
3$ /e !ave a s)ecific lin.
[!nsert "lan#Speci$ic Lin%]
1$ C!ina over-reacts to small c!anges in (#S# foreign )olicy engagement#
,ven if 0atin America isn%t a !uge maret for C!ina" t!ey 'ill see t!e )lan as
containment# ,xtend our =OO- evidence#
4$ C!ina is focusing on 0atin America due to (#S# )reoccu)ation 'it! ot!er
regions#
M,.,.D,D" 11
(1ernan<oA economist an< $rinci$al of T3e Cor<oba 9rou$ 0nternational BBCA #T3e 2ast is
risin-> in Batin America>' 5/1D>
3tt$://&&&.t3ecommentator.com/article/*/../t3eZeastZisZrisin-ZinZlatinZamerica)
43en concerns about a risin- C3ina are broac3e< t3ey are usually focuse< aroun< t3at nation5s
increasin- economic> financial an< military $o&er in Asia. Anot3er re-ion un<er-oin-
si-nificant $olitical an< economic <evelo$ment> once consi<ere< t3e bac?yar<s of t3e =nite<
States> is less often cite<. Batin America> 3o&ever> is fast becomin- a -ro&in- nub on C3ina5s
ra<ar as a -lobal $o&er. =.S. $reoccu$ation &it3 t3e Mi<<le 2ast 3as le< ar-uably to a <ecline in
American $o&er in Batin America an< else&3ere. 2conomically> as America5s influence &anes in
t3e sout3ern 3emis$3ere C3ina5s 3as -ro&n. T3e s3ift can be seen in levels of loans> forei-n
<irect investment an< tra<e.
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t - ?3@(#S# Outs)ends C!inaA 181
-!ey say t!at t!e (#S# is already outs)ending C!ina in 0atin America" &ut # #
1$ -!eir evidence isn%t conclusive or )redictive# 6t says t!e (#S# !as &een t!e
largest trading )artner in 0atin America in t!e )ast" &ut does not s)ea to
future )artners!i)s# -!e trends s!o' t!at t!e (#S# is losing ground '!ile
C!ina is gaining#
3$ ,ven if t!e (#S# &uilt u) a large trade relations!i) in t!e )ast" it is
slo'ing '!ile C!ina is gro'ing ra)idly#
*,(-,*S" 11
(9ary 6e-enstreif> #T3e loomin- =.S.!C3ina rivalry over Batin America>' 8/12>
3tt$://blo-s.reuters.com/-reat!<ebate/2D1*/D8/12/t3e!loomin-!u!s!c3ina!rivalry!over!latin!
america/)
0n Jbama5s first term> 3o&ever> t3e a<ministration &as &i<ely vie&e< as ne-lectin- Batin
America. An< C3ina 3as move< in fast. C3ina built its annual tra<e &it3 t3e re-ion from
virtually not3in- in 2DDD to about S28D billion in 2D12. 0n 2DDL> it overtoo? t3e =nite< States
as t3e lar-est tra<in- $artner of 7raEil> t3e re-ion5s $o&er3ouse K lar-ely t3rou-3 massive
$urc3ases of iron ore an< soy. Jt3er <ata is tellin-: 0n 1LL5> for exam$le> t3e =nite< States
accounte< for *; $ercent of 7raEil5s forei-n <irect investment. T3at <ro$$e< to 1D $ercent in
2D11> accor<in- to t3e Council of t3e Americas> &3ic3 see?s to foster 3emis$3eric ties.
1$ C!ina )rovides more financing to 0atin America t!an t!e (#S#
;0O+A06S-" 11
(Cevin 9alla-3er> #Time for a =.S. :ivot to Batin America>' 8/1.>
3tt$://&&&.t3e-lobalist.com/Story0<.as$xRStory0<b1DD*5)
Since 2DD*> t3us over t3e $ast <eca<e> C3inaMs $olicy ban?s 3ave $rovi<e< more finance to Batin
America t3an t3eir counter$arts at t3e 4orl< 7an?> t3e 0nter!American ,evelo$ment 7an? an<
t3e =.S. 2x$ort!0m$ort 7an?. 0f anyt3in- ou-3t to a&a?en t3e =nite< States from its $ast
slumber an< ta?in- Batin America essentially for -rante<> t3at com$arison ou-3t to <o it.
Sim$ly $ut> t3e =nite< States an< t3e array of lar-ely 4estern!<ominate< international
financial institutions 3ave been out-unne< by C3inaMs financial muscle. 4elcome to t3e brave
ne& &orl<h
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t - ?1 @.o 0inA B1>3C 184
-!ey say t!at t!ere%s no lin &ecause C!ina is not com)eting 'it! t!e (#S#
over '!at t!e )lan does# -!at doesn%t really matter#
1$ -!e lin does not de)end on s)ecific )olicies or actual com)letion" only
on C!ina%s )erce)tions of (#S# intent# C!ina is 'oring to increase
government-to-government ties 'it! 0atin American countries '!ile t!e
(#S# is focused on ot!er regions# -!e )lan signals a c!ange t!at t!e (#S#
mig!t start investing in 0atin America again" '!ic! causes C!ina to )re-
em)tively fear future )olicies# ,xtend our /A-SO. evidence#
3$ -!e com)etition comes from relations!i)s" not s)ecific )olicies#
6ncreased assistance from t!e (nited States creates a direct trade-off 'it!
investment from C!ina &ecause 0atin American countries vie' t!e
)artners!i)s as Gero-sum#
,006S" 13
(2van> assistant $rofessor of %ational Security Affairs at %ational ,efense =niversityA #T3e
=nite< States> Batin America an< C3ina: A #Trian-ular 6elations3i$'R' May>
3tt$://&&&.t3e<ialo-ue.or-/:ublication1iles/0A,.881ZC3inaZTrian-ularD/2/v2e!may.$<f)
T3e ability of t3e =nite< States to serve as a mar?et an< a source of investment for Batin America 3as
influence< t3e re-ion5s rece$tivity to&ar< t3e :6C. T3e initial o$enness of t3e re-ion to $romises of
investment an< tra<e by C3inese :resi<ent u @intao came Iust after Batin America reac3e< a 3istoric lo&
&it3 re-ar< to flo&s of investment from t3e =nite< States an< ot3er sources. T3e 2DD;!2DDL -lobal
financial crisis> &3ic3 si-nificantly im$aire< =S $urc3ases of Batin American ex$orts an< =S cre<it to t3e
re-ion> stren-t3ene< t3e $erceive< im$ortance of t3e :6C for Batin American -overnments> an< C3inese
commo<ity $urc3ases an< investments emer-e< as one of t3e ?ey factors 3el$in- t3ese -overnments
&eat3er t3e crisis. %onet3eless> as note< earlier> &3ile t3e :6C 3as occu$ie< an im$ortant symbolic role
as t3e lar-est an< most visible source of ne& ca$ital an< mar?ets> it 3as not been t3e only $layer to &3ic3
Batin America 3as loo?e< as t3e re-ion see?s to en-a-e -lobally. Attention also 3as been -iven to 0n<ia
an< ot3er emer-in- mar?ets of Asia> as &ell as tra<itional $layers> suc3 as t3e 2uro$ean =nion> an<
actors suc3 as 6ussia an< 0ran. At t3e $olitical level> =S en-a-ement &it3 Batin American countries 3as
im$acte< t3e ability of t3e :6C to <evelo$ military an< ot3er ties in t3e re-ion. Alt3ou-3 Iournalistic an<
aca<emic accounts often su--est t3at t3e 1Lt3 century Monroe ,octrine continues to be $ursue< by
contem$orary =S $olicyma?ers> &it3 a $resume< <esire to #?ee$ C3ina out' of t3e re-ion> official =S
$olicy 3as re$eate<ly met C3inese initiatives in t3e 3emis$3ere &it3 a cautiously &elcomin- tone.
%onet3eless> Batin America5s o&n lea<ers3i$ 3as res$on<e< to C3inese initiatives &it3 a vie& of 3o&
en-a-ement &it3 C3ina coul< <ama-e its relations3i$ &it3 t3e =nite< States. Colombia5s close
relations3i$ &it3 t3e =nite< States> for exam$le> ma<e t3e military lea<ers3i$ of t3e country reluctant to
$rocure maIor military items from t3e :6C. T3e same lo-ic 3as also a$$lie< to countries suc3 as
+eneEuela> 2cua<or an< 7olivia> for &3om embracin- t3e :6C $olitically an< economically si-nale<
<is$leasure &it3 t3e =nite< States. T3e <e-ree to &3ic3 a #ba<' relations3i$ &it3 t3e =nite< States 3as
$ro$elle< a #$ositive' relations3i$ &it3 C3ina 3as increasin-ly -one beyon< symbolism.
0#1
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t - ?1 @.o 0inA B3>3C 185
1$ C!ina is 'inning in 0atin America &ecause of t!e )erce)tion t!e (#S# no
longer cares a&out t!e region# -!e )lan )uts American attention &ac on
0atin America#
*,(-,*S" 11
america/)
4as3in-ton5s rene&e< ar<or is at least $artly because of t3e fear t3at C3ina &ill re$eat in Batin
America t3e economic success it 3as built in Africa. C3ina 3as been able to $resent itself as a
benevolent $artner t3ere> &3ic3 3as $laye< &ell a-ainst t3e 4est5s 3istory of me<<lin- in
<omestic affairs. #0t5s about influence an< levera-e>' sai< 2ric 1arns&ort3> vice $resi<ent of t3e
Council of t3e Americas> #[T3e re-ion mature< an< ex$ects to be treate< in real $artners3i$
rat3er t3an (in t3e) $atroniEin- &ay it 3a$$ene< in t3e $ast.' T3e c3allen-es facin- 7eiIin- an<
4as3in-ton lay in 3o& eac3 a$$roac3es t3e re-ion. 4as3in-ton confronts lin-erin- resentment
about its 3istoric re-ional interference> stretc3in- bac? to t3e 1.2* Monroe ,octrine> an< its
continuin- <esire to mix business &it3 $olicy K &3ic3 mu<<ies its a$$roac3 to tra<e an<
investment. 4as3in-ton5s <omestic $roblems> its $ivot to Asia an< a 3ost of -lobal crises> also
serve as <istractions t3at coul< ?ee$ its actions in Batin America from matc3in- its &or<s K as
3as 3a$$ene< before. C3ina> mean&3ile> is lar-ely vie&e< in t3e re-ion as unencumbere< by
i<eolo-y. 0t a$$roac3es o$$ortunities almost exclusively on commercial terms t3ere.
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t - ?4 @Hegemony -urnA B1>3C 182
-!ey argue @-urn H t!e )lan increases (#S# !egemony#A /e !ave a num&er
of res)onses#
1$ -!e )lan causes C!ina to turn unilateral" leading t!em to actively
c!allenge t!e (#S# on every front and in every region# -!is is t!e 'orst
)ossi&le outcome for !egemony H an angry C!ina is al'ays 'orse for (#S#
leaders!i) t!an a multilateral one# ,xtend our =OO- and .:, evidence#
3$ C!inese relations!i)s 'it! 0atin American countries 'ill eventually
cause regional &aclas! against C!ina and to'ard t!e (#S#
,006S" 13
Jver t3e lon- term> 3o&ever> t3ere is $otential for a #fee<bac? effect' beneficial to t3e =nite<
States an< ot3er 4estern investors. i-3 interest rates in t3e case of 2cua<oran loans an< t3e
Guestionable loan terms in +eneEuela 3ave alrea<y been use< as $olitical fo<<er by t3e
o$$osition in t3ose countries> increasin- t3e li?eli3oo< t3at an ex$licit movement a&ay from
suc3 loans an< ca$ital> an< bac? to 4estern financial mar?ets an< institutions> may be on t3e
a-en<a &3en c3an-es in $olitical re-ime occur in t3ese states.
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t - ?4 @Hegemony -urnA B3>3C 188
1$ A softer engagement strategy 'it! C!ina !el)s solve t!e maIor t!reats to
international )eace#
4,6" 71
(Minxin> Sr. Assistant at C3ina :ro-ram of Carne-ie 2n<o&ment for 0nternational :eace>
#,omestic C3an-es in C3ina>' =S!C3ina 6elations in t3e 21st Century> e<. Mars3 an< ,reyer> $.
5L)
Jn balance> t3e strate-y of #3e<-e< en-a-ement' is a less ris?y strate-y for t3e =nite< States
because a #$reem$tive' containment strate-y is> at t3e moment> unnecessary>
counter$ro<uctive> an< costly. A com$lete brea?<o&n of =.S.!C3ina relations cause< by lon-!
term American strate-ic concerns &it3out C3inese $rovocation or 3ostility &oul< ma?e C3ina a
<etermine< foe of t3e =nite< States an< set off anot3er maIor!$o&er col< &ar in one of t3e
&orl<5s 3ot s$ots. T3e Asian re-ion &ill become less stable as t3e restrainin- influence exerte<
by t3e en-a-ement $olicy on C3inese be3avior <isa$$ears. C3ina &oul< be less li?ely to
coo$erate &it3 t3e =nite< States on issues of vital interests to t3e =nite< States> suc3 as
non$roliferation of &ea$ons of mass <estruction an< counterterrorism.
2$ ,ncouraging multi-)olarity 'it! C!ina averts t!e militant
com)etitiveness t!at is t!e most liely cause of 'ar '!en a maIor )o'er is
emerging#
S(,--6.;,*" 74
(6obert> nonresi<ent senior fello& in t3e 1orei-n :olicy Stu<ies $ro-ram an< an affiliate< fello&
of t3e Center for %ort3east Asian :olicy Stu<ies at 7roo?in-s> intelli-ence officer for 2ast Asia
on t3e %ational 0ntelli-ence Council <irector!Asian affairs for t3e %ational Security Council>
C3ina Bea<ers3i$ Monitory> %o. 12> 3tt$://me<ia.3oover.or-/<ocuments/clm12Zrs.$<f)
0n t3e 25 years since t3e ince$tion of its reform an< o$enin- u$> C3ina 3as blaEe< a ne&
strate-ic $at3 t3at not only suits its national con<itions but also conforms to t3e ti<e of t3e
times. T3is ne& strate-ic $at3 is C3ina5s $eaceful rise t3rou-3 in<e$en<ently buil<in- socialism
&it3 C3inese c3aracteristics> &3ile $artici$atin- in rat3er t3an <etac3in- from economic
-lobaliEation.2 O3en- insiste< t3at alt3ou-3 C3ina &oul< rely mainly on its o&n stren-t3> it
nee<e< a $eaceful international environment to accom$lis3 t3e tas? of liftin- its enormous
$o$ulation out of a con<ition of un<er<evelo$ment. e also $le<-e< t3at C3ina &oul< rise to t3e
status of a -reat $o&er &it3out <estabiliEin- t3e international or<er or o$$ressin- its nei-3bors:
T3e rise of a maIor $o&er often results in <rastic c3an-e in international confi-uration an<
&orl< or<er> even tri--ers a &orl< &ar. An im$ortant reason be3in< t3is is (t3at) t3ese maIor
$o&ers follo&e< a $at3 of a--ressive &ar an< external ex$ansion. Suc3 a $at3 is <oome< to
failure. 0n to<ay5s &orl<> 3o& can &e follo& suc3 a totally erroneous $at3 t3at is inIurious to all>
C3ina inclu<e<R C3ina5s only c3oice is to strive for rise> more im$ortantly strive for a $eaceful
rise.*

0#1
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t - ?5 @.o ,scalationA 189
-!ey say t!at t!ere is )lenty of room for t!e (#S# and C!ina to inter-relate
)eacefully in 0atin America" &ut # # #
1$ C!ina )erceives any (#S# interest in 0atin America to &e a direct t!reat to
t!eir s)!ere of influence# All of t!e Affirmative%s evidence is from t!e
American )oint of vie' t!at C!ina 'ill inevita&ly &e 'illing to coo)erate"
&ut t!is doesn%t assume )otential nationalism# ,xtend our /A-SO. and
C,SA*6. evidence#
3$ *egardless of C!ina%s vie' of t!e )lan action s)ecifics" C!ina%s larger
concern is 'it! its international relations!i)s t!at can c!ec '!at it
)erceives as American !egemony# -!us t!e )lan%s )erceived relations!i)-
&uilding in 0atin America is ey to t!e lin#
A0D,." 75
(C3ris> Senior Becturer in 0nternational 6elations at Bon<on Sc3ool of 2conomics an< :olitical
Science> #C3ina in Africa>' Survival> /;:*)
A ?ey <imension of C3inese forei-n $olicy at t3e -lobal level is an overri<in- concern &it3
American 3e-emony. 0n $art t3is reflects t3e $osition of t3e =nite< States> as t3e only $o&er
&it3 t3e $olitical &ill an< military means to actively t3&art 7eiIin-Ms interests> es$ecially &it3
res$ect to Tai&an. At t3e same time> AmericaMs ambivalence to&ar<s C3inaMs emer-ence as a
&orl< $o&er ! reflecte< in crises suc3 as t3e inci<ent in 2DDD &3en a =S s$y $lane &as force< to
lan< in C3inese territory ! an< its (selective) $romotion of 3uman ri-3ts an< <emocracy ensure
friction bet&een t3e t&o states. 0n t3e aftermat3 of 11 Se$tember 2DD1 (ML/11M)> &it3 t3e
$romul-ation of t3e American <octrine of $re!em$tion an< t3e invasion an< occu$ation of 0raG>
7eiIin- is <ee$ly &orrie< about 4as3in-tonMs intentions an< lon-!term obIectives. T3is concern
manifests itself in a searc3> brea?in- &it3 t3e tra<itional aloofness of C3inese forei-n $olicy> for
strate-ic $artners &it3 &3om 7eiIin- can ma?e common cause aroun< issues t3at reflects its
core interests as &ell as t3e $romotion of t3e i<ea of C3inaMs M$eaceful riseM. T3ese interests
center on mutual res$ect for state soverei-nty as a -ui<in- $rinci$le of t3e international system>
an< non!intervention in <omestic affairs of states. T3e <rive for suc3 strate-ic $artners3i$s is
manifeste< in t3e lar-ely symbolic bilateral coo$eration &it3 ?ey -lobal actors outsi<e AmericaMs
3e-emonic reac3> suc3 as 6ussiaA in multilateral coo$erationA an< in securin- t3e necessary
means to maintain economic -ro&t3. As a si-nificant $layer in multilateral or-aniEations> an<
&it3 its recent ascension to t3e 4TJ> C3ina reco-niEes t3at it nee<s to court votes to $rotect
an< $romote its interests. African states 3ave t3e lar-est sin-le bloc of votes in multilateral
settin-s an<> as C3inaMs economic an< $olitical interests <o not clas3 &it3 AfricaMs in t3e &ay
t3ey <o &it3 fello& Asian statesM> 7eiIin- 3as <eci<e< to actively <evelo$ $artners3i$s &it3 t3e
continent. 0n t3e &or<s of :rime Minister 4en @iabao in A<<is Ababa in ,ecember 2DD/:
0#1
MC3ina is rea<y to co!or<inate its $ositions &it3 African countries in t3e $rocess of international
economic rules formulation an< multilateral tra<e ne-otiationsM.

0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t - ?2 @C!inese 6nvestment is (nsustaina&leA
18<
-!ey say t!at C!inese investment in 0atin America isn%t sustaina&le" &ut # # #
1$ C!ina is ra)idly ex)anding trade ties 'it! 0atin America#
4O06C:M6C" 11
(Buis Costa> international affairs stu<ent at 9eor-eto&n =niversityMs Sc3ool of 1orei-n ServiceA
#=.S. C3ins 6elations: S3oul< 4as3in-ton 7e Concerne< Jver 9ro&in- C3inese Tra<e in Batin
AmericaR' @une> 3tt$://&&&.$olicymic.com/articles//.8;*/u!s!c3ins!relations!s3oul<!
&as3in-ton!be!concerne<!over!-ro&in-!c3inese!tra<e!in!latin!america)
Jn Marc3 18> t3e 0nter!American ,evelo$ment 7an? announce< t3at it &oul< receive S2 billion
from C3ina for an investment fun< to -rant loans to bot3 $ublic an< $rivate entities in Batin
America an< t3e Caribbean. T3e move is re$resentative of C3inaMs increase< efforts to boost
investment in Batin America> s$ar?in- ar-uments t3at a N=.S.!C3ina rivalryN over Batin America
coul< be imminent. 0n<ee<> C3inaMs investment in Batin America 3as -ro&n &it3 im$ressive
s$ee< over t3e $ast fe& years> ma?in- it t3e fastest!-ro&in- investor in t3e re-ion. 0n fact> t3e
:6C 3as alrea<y overta?en t3e =.S. as 7raEilMs lar-est tra<in- $artner> an< total tra<e bet&een
Batin America an< C3ina 3as been -ro&in- faster t3an tra<e bet&een Batin America an< t3e
=nite< States (in 2D12> t3e values &ere estimate< at .Y an< 8.2Y> res$ectively). . . . T3e same
re$ort $re<icts t3at by 2D15 C3ina &ill 3ave sur$asse< t3e 2=> remainin- secon< only to t3e
=nite< States.
3$ C!ina is develo)ing influence in 0atin America &ecause t!e (#S# is not
offering ne' forms of assistance#
+0OOM+,*;" 11
(@os3ua 9oo<manA #7i<en Circles ai as =.S. ,uels C3ina for Batin America Ties' 5/2L>
3tt$://&&&.bloomber-.com/ne&s/2D1*!D5!2L/bi<en!circles!xi!as!u!s!<uels!c3ina!for!latin!
america!influence.3tml)
T3e com$etition bet&een t3e &orl<5s t&o bi--est economies for influence in Batin America is on
<is$lay t3is &ee? as =.S. +ice :resi<ent @oe 7i<en visits 6io <e @aneiro to<ay near t3e en< of a
t3ree!nation tour of t3e re-ion &it3 C3inese :resi<ent ai @in$in- close be3in<. T3e <uelin-
visits !! 7i<en <e$arts 7raEil May *1> t3e same <ay ai arrives in Trini<a< X Toba-o to be-in 3is
first tour of t3e re-ion since C3ina5s $olitical transition en<e< in Marc3 !! un<erscore 3o& Batin
America5s natural resources an< risin- mi<<le class are ma?in- it an increasin-ly attractive
tra<e $artner for t3e &orl<5s to$ t&o economies. Com$etin- &it3 C3ina5s c3ec?boo? isn5t easy
for t3e =.S. See?in- Sout3 American soy> co$$er an< iron ore> C3ina booste< im$orts from Batin
America 2D!fol<> to S.8 billion in 2D11 from S*.L billion in 2DDD> accor<in- to calculations by
t3e 0nter!American ,evelo$ment 7an?. 7y contrast> t3e =.S. $olicy of $ursuin- free!tra<e
0#1
accor<s 3as been controversial> sai< Cevin 9alla-3er> a 7oston =niversity economist. . . . #T3e
onus is on t3e =.S. to come u$ &it3 a more flexible> attractive offer but t3at5s not so easy because
it <oesn5t 3ave t3e <ee$ $oc?ets li?e it use< to.'
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t - ?8 @C!inese Aggression -urnA B1> 1 C 197
-!ey say t!at t!e C!inese intend to convert t!eir engagement 'it! 0atin
America into military aggression against t!e (#S#" &ut # # #
1$ C!ina is not develo)ing military ties 'it! ot!er countries &ecause t!ey
are looing to &ind t!emselves to multilateral institutions# -!is assures t!at
t!ey 'ill remain )eaceful# ,xtend our C,SA*6. evidence#
3$ C!ina%s investments in 0atin America are )eaceful" and t!ey are not
currently attem)ting to c!allenge (#S# leaders!i)#
MA*C,00A" 13
(9abriel> former :rofessor of T3ir< 4orl< Stu<ies an< ,irector of t3e Americas Stu<ies in t3e
,e$artment of %ational Security an< Strate-y at t3e =.S. Army 4ar Colle-eA #43at is t3e
C3inese military <oin- in Batin AmericaRA' 4inter>
3tt$://&&&.americasGuarterly.or-/Marcella)
T3e trut3> t3ou-3> <oesn5t loo? anyt3in- li?e t3e 3ea<lines. Alt3ou-3 military <i$lomacy an<
arms sales an< transfers to some countries of t3e re-ion 3ave increase< in t3e $ast <eca<e> t3e
Guantity an< ty$e of eGui$ment involve< 3ar<ly re$resents t3e strate-ic t3reat su--este< by t3e
3ea<line &riters. Moreover> muc3 of t3e eGui$ment is lo-istical in natureA little of it is for
combat or $o&er $roIection. T3ere is> to be sure> a 3ei-3tene< C3inese interest in buil<in-
alliances an< exten<in- contacts &it3 -overnments an< institutional $layers (suc3 as militaries)
in t3e re-ionK-oin- beyon< Iust tra<e an< investment. 7 ut t3e notion t3at t3e C3inese are
see?in- to establis3 a strate-ic beac33ea< is far!fetc3e<> irres$onsible an< counter$ro<uctive to
establis3in- a useful relations3i$ &it3 C3ina as its -lobal influence rises. Contrary to t3e
3ea<lines> C3ina <oes not &ant to c3allen-e t3e =.S. in t3e 3emis$3ere.
0#1
1$ Scientific and !istorical studies all conclude C!ina 'ill inevita&ly
overtae t!e (#S# in glo&al )o'er# -!e only Euestion is '!et!er t!ey do so
)eacefully or angrily#
56SSA.," 75
(,ylan> :rofessor at t3e =niversity of Sout3 Australia> #2D15 an< t3e 6ise of C3ina>'
3tt$://&or?s.be$ress.com/c-i/vie&content.c-iRarticleb1DD*Xcontextb<ylan?issane)
T3e =nite< States $ea?e< in its s3are of system $o&er mi<!century (1L/1) an< 3as been in
<ecline since. T3e accession of C3ina an< t3e 2uro$ean =nion to t3e maIor $o&er system 3as
furt3er assiste< in t3e <ecline in t3e relative s3are of system $o&er maintaine< by t3e &orl<5s
sole su$er$o&er. T3e <ecline remains slo& but consistent> in star? contrast to t3e risin-
fortunes of C3ina an< even t3e relatively -entle rise in t3e @a$anese $o&er cycle. 0t &oul< be a
mista?e> 3o&ever> to inter$ret t3is <ecline as evi<ence of t3e =nite< States ex$eriencin- any
si-nificant <ecline in any s$ecific ca$abilities. 0n<ee<> bet&een 1L.1 an< 2DD1 t3e =S sa& actual
increases in four of t3e six ca$ability in<icators. As ,oran an< :arsons note> it is not enou-3
t3at a state ex$eriences -ro&t3 in t3e assesse< ca$abilities in or<er to ]-ro&5 t3eir $o&er cycle
curve F t3e state must also ]out!-ro&5 t3e rate of c3an-e of ot3er states in t3e system un<er
investi-ation. 0n effect> a state must be ]runnin- to stan< still5 else it &ill face a <ecline in relative
$o&er as t3e =nite< States 3as in t3e $erio< $ost!1L/1. T3ese some&3at su$erficial results>
3o&ever> s3oul< not <istract from t3e more inte-ral an< ultimately more si-nificant im$lication>
&3ic3 can be <ra&n from t3e $o&er cycle curves of t3e =nite< States> @a$an an< C3ina. . . .
Accor<in- to $o&er cycle analysis> it &oul< seem t3at t3e year 2D15 is t3e be-innin- of t3e en<
for =S $re<ominance in international $o&er $olitics. 1i-ure 5 (belo&) illustrates -ra$3ically t3e
continuin- rise an< <ecline of t3e t3ree Asia!:acific $o&ers in t3e comin- <eca<es. 7y t3e year
2D15 C3ina &ill 3ave overta?en t3e =nite< States as t3e $re<ominant actor in t3e maIor $o&er
system. 7et&een t3em> t3e =S an< C3ina &ill account for more t3an 5DY of t3e total maIor
$o&er systems relative $o&er> &it3 @a$an accountin- for almost anot3er 2DY. T3us> &3en :aul
Cru-man Guestions &3et3er t3e =nite< States can ]stay on to$5 of t3e &orl< economically> t3e
ans&er must be a clear ]no5. 1urt3er> as t3e forecasts 3ere are base< u$on a $o&er cycle
met3o<olo-y t3at balances military an< economic ca$abilities> it may not even be $ossible to
claim t3at =S military <ominance &ill also continue. T3e reality is t3at a ne& ]Asian Century5
&ill be-in to emer-e aroun< 2D15 &it3 t3e 4est> inclu<in- 2uro$e an< $articularly t3e
-eo-ra$3ically close Australia> force< to realiEe t3at t3e centers of -lobal $olitics &ill not be in
Bon<on> :aris an< %e& Vor? but rat3er in 7eiIin-> To?yo an< on t3e American &est coast. T3e
rise of C3ina an< t3e resultant F because in a relative system t3e rise of one is t3e fall of ot3ers F
<ecline of t3e =S &ill be t3e <efinin- features of early t&enty!first century $o&er $olitics. T3e
&orl< &ill not turn to t3e 4est but rat3er t3e 4est &ill turn to t3e ne& 3eart of -lobal $olitics:
t3e Asia!:acific.
0#1
4$ C!ina is )eacefully ex)anding into 0atin America" and is not looing to
cause aggression#
-O5A-06A." 78
(@uan 9abrielA $rofessor of international relations at t3e =niversi<a< Torcuato ,i Tella in
Ar-entinaA #Batin America> C3ina> an< t3e =nite< States: a 3o$eful trian-le' 2/DL>
3tt$://&&&.o$en<emocracy.net/<emocracy!$rotest/3o$efulZtrian-leZ/**8.Is$)
To<ay> 7eiIin-Ms a$$roac3 to t3e re-ion involves an active economic <i$lomacy c3aracteriEe< by
$ra-matism> base< on conciliation> see?instability> concerne< not to irritate 4as3in-ton> an<
aime< at stren-t3enin- interstate ties. T3erefore> C3inaMs ex$an<in- interest in t3e re-ion
a$$ears to be mo<erate> not c3allen-in-> an< in favor of t3e status Guo.
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t - ?9 @Corru)tion -urnA 191
-!ey say t!at C!inese influence in 0atin America maes corru)tion t!ere
'orse" &ut # # #
1$ Corru)tion exists no' in 0atin America -- t!eir evidence says C!inese
)resence maintains it" &ut not t!at it is made 'orse#
3$ C!inese aid to 0atin America is given to )romote &ot! economies and
avoid de)endence or corru)tion#
A*MO.:" 13
(Ariel> ,irector of t3e =niversity of MiamiMs Center for Batin American Stu<iesA #2x$ortin-
Corru$tion>' 4inter> 3tt$://&&&.americasGuarterly.or-/Armony)
0n a<<ition to $romotin- business activity abroa<> 7eiIin-5s #9oin- Jut' $olicy involves forei-n
ai<. C3ina5s forei-n assistance 3as been <riven mainly by its <eman< for natural resources>
es$ecially ener-y> an< <i$lomatic -oalsKc3iefly> t3e effort to $olitically isolate Tai&an> &3ic3 is
<i$lomatically reco-niEe< by a number of nations in Central America an< t3e Caribbean. C3ina
3as <elivere< assistance &it3out follo&in- bureaucratic $roce<ures an< &it3 an aura of secrecy>
an< 3as -iven $reference to $ublic &or?s &it3 3i-3 visibility. T3e ne& San @osQ %ational
1ootball Sta<ium in Costa 6ica is an exam$le. T3e S1/D million C3ina investe< in buil<in- or
revam$in- cric?et sta<iums in t3e Caribbean for t3e 2DD; 4orl< Cu$ is anot3er. T3e official
C3inese $osition is t3at forei-n ai< res$on<s to Sout3!Sout3 soli<arity an< follo&s t3e
$rinci$les articulate< by O3ou 2nlai> C3ina5s first $remier> in t3e 1L8Ds> &3ic3 establis3e< t3at
assistance to ot3er countries s3oul< $romote mutual benefit> avoi< any form of <e$en<ence>
establis3 a $artners3i$ bet&een eGuals> an< 3ave no strin-s attac3e<.
0#1
4lan- S )ecific 0in: Mexico 194
1$ C!ina is focusing on Mexico due to its )otential as a trading )artner#
*,(-,*S" 11
america/)
C3ina 3as $articular interest in Mexico> t3e re-ion5s secon<!lar-est mar?et. 7eiIin- 3as been
com$etin- &it3 Mexico to su$$ly t3e =.S. mar?et &it3 manufacture< -oo<s. 7ut C3ina is no&
loo?in- to &or? &it3 Mexico City K investin- in infrastructure> minin- an< ener-y because of
t3e ex$ecte< reforms t3at &oul< o$en t3e oil in<ustry to forei-n investment. T3ere are obstacles
a3ea<. Jne irritation t3at :resi<ent 2nriGue :eHa %ieto s3are< &it3 ai is t3at t3ou-3 Mexico
$oste< a tra<e sur$lus &it3 its -lobal $artners> it ran a bi- <eficit &it3 C3ina. C3ina is loo?in-
for even more 3o&ever. 0t is ea-er to $ursue a free tra<e a-reement &it3 Mexico> but Mexico
City sai< last &ee? it &as too soon. Mean&3ile> Mexico5s tra<e &it3 t3e =nite< States continues
to flouris3 an< it is <ue to <is$lace Cana<a as t3e lar-est =.S. tra<e $artner by t3e en< of t3e
<eca<e> accor<in- to t3e ,ialo-ue.
0#1
4lan- S )ecific 0in: Cu&a 195
1$ C!ina is focusing on Cu&a due to its strained ties to t!e (#S#
/O*0DC*(.CH" 11
(America 2conomiaA #1or Batin America> C3inaMs 7oom S3oul< %eit3er Scare %or Se<uce' 8/1;>
3tt$://&&&.&orl<crunc3.com/o$inion!analysis/for!latin!america!c3ina!D*L!s!boom!s3oul<!
neit3er!scare!nor!se<uce/c3ina!latin!america!unite<!states!commerce!c3ile/c;s12*/8/)
o&ever> C3ina is relevant to Central America an< t3e Caribbean -iven t3e smallness an<
&ea?ness of t3ese economies an< t3e fact t3at Mexico &ill naturally ten< to&ar<s 3avin-
stron-er $olitical an< commercial ties &it3 t3e =nite< States an< Cana<a in $articular. T3ere is
one exce$tion in t3e area: Cuba. 7eiIin- can exert economic an< social influence> im$ossible for
4as3in-ton> to $romote furt3er liberaliEation an< so$3istication of its economy. C3inese
enter$rises in t3e a-ricultural sector coul<> for exam$le> 3el$s boost Cuban $ro<uctivity.
/FF
C!ina Disadvantage Affirmative 192
2AC 1rontline: C3ina ,isa<vanta-e (1/5)...................................................................................1.8
3AC =rontline: C!ina Disadvantage B1>5C 198
1$ .o 0in: 0atin America is not im)ortant enoug! to eit!er America or
C!ina to create tension#
-O5A-06A." 78
Ar-entinaA #Batin America> C3ina> an< t3e =nite< States: a 3o$eful trian-le' 2/DL>
Secon<> Batin America> C3ina> an< t3e =nite< States <o not constitute a strate-ic trian-le: t3e
bilateral ties of eac3 $air are not closely intert&ine<> nor are t3ey eGually vital for all $arties. T3e
reci$rocal si-nificance of 4as3in-ton!7eiIin- relations is> for eac3 si<e> -reater t3an t3eir
res$ective relations3i$s &it3 Batin America. At t3e same time> t3e &ei-3t of t3e =nite< States in
t3e external an< internal $olitics of Batin America is muc3 more im$ortant t3an t3at of C3ina>
an< Batin America is not amon- C3inaMs 3i-3est $riorities &3en com$are< to ot3er countries
($articularly> t3e more <evelo$e< ones) an< re-ions (es$ecially its closest $eri$3ery).
1urt3ermore> t3e 3istory an< recent evolution of t3is trian-le 3as not 3a< notable im$lications
for t3e international balance of $o&er> nor <oes it a$$ear t3at it &ill in t3e near future.
3$ .on-(niEue: -!e (#S# is already outs)ending C!ina in 0atin America &y
more t!an 1-to-1#
*,(-,*S" 11
america/)
T3e =nite< States> Batin America5s lar-est tra<in- $artner t3rou-3out muc3 of its 3istory> still
retains t3is $osition. 4as3in-ton 3as no& si-ne< free tra<e a-reements &it3 more t3an a t3ir<
of t3e 3emis$3ere5s nations an< annually exc3an-es more t3an S.DD billion in -oo<s an<
services &it3 Batin America K more t3an t3ree times t3e re-ion5s commerce &it3 C3ina.
1$ .o 0in: -!eir evidence assumes t!e )lan s)ecifically targets a C!inese
)olicy in 0atin America 'it! t!e goal of re)lacing it# C!ina does not !ave a
)olicy in )lace to do '!at t!e )lan does" so t!ere is no ris of overla) or
com)etition#
3AC =rontline: C!ina Disadvantage B3>5C 199
4$ -urn: Hegemony#
A$ C!inese engagement 'it! 0atin America decreases American glo&al
influence#
,006S" 13
Movin- from economics to $olitical an< social inter<e$en<encies> it is im$ortant to note t3at
C3inese tra<e an< investment &it3 Batin American re-imes in<irectly un<ermine t3e ability of
t3e =nite< States to $ursue its a-en<a in t3e re-ion. T3is a-en<a focuses on multi$le to$ics>
from tra<e an< res$ect for $rivate $ro$erty> to <efense of t3e interests of =S com$anies> to
a<3erence to certain $rinci$les of <emocracy an< 3uman ri-3ts. 4it3 res$ect to tra<e an<
investment> t3e availability of t3e :6C as an alternative mar?et &as one factor lea<in- Batin
America a&ay from t3e =S!oriente< 1ree Tra<e Area of t3e Americas tra<in- re-ime an<>
instea<> to&ar< establis3ment of a net&or? of bilateral free tra<e a-reements. =n<er t3ese
a-reements certain nations> suc3 as C3ile> :eru an< Costa 6ica> &oul< attem$t to bot3 ta?e
a<vanta-e of t3e emer-in- C3inese mar?et an< serve as t3e lin? t3rou-3 &3ic3 ot3er nations in
t3e re-ion &oul< <o t3e same.11 Boans> investments an< commo<ity $urc3ases from C3ina 3ave
allo&e< re-imes relatively 3ostile to t3e =nite< States> suc3 as +eneEuela> 7olivia an< 2cua<or>
to turn t3eir bac?s on 4estern len<in- institutions li?e t3e 0nternational Monetary 1un< an<
t3e 4orl< 7an?. T3ey also o$ene< t3e &ay in some cases for <efault on loans> t3e
nationaliEation of in<ustries or ot3er actions 3ostile to t3e interests of 4estern com$aniesA in
t3e s3ort term> t3ese re-imes &ere able to si<este$ t3e ne-ative conseGuences t3at suc3 actions
brin- from tra<itional ca$ital mar?ets
+$ 0oss of (#S# leaders!i) causes glo&al nuclear 'ar#
5HA060DAD" <5
(Oalmay> 6A%, AnalystA #Bosin- t3e momentR T3e =nite< States an< t3e &orl< after t3e Col<
4ar>' 4as3in-ton Puarterly> s$rin-> lexis!nexis)
=n<er t3e t3ir< o$tion> t3e =nite< States &oul< see? to retain -lobal lea<ers3i$ an< to $reclu<e
t3e rise of a -lobal rival or a return to multi$olarity for t3e in<efinite future. Jn balance> t3is is
t3e best lon-!term -ui<in- $rinci$le an< vision. Suc3 a vision is <esirable not as an en< in itself>
but because a &orl< in &3ic3 t3e =nite< States exercises lea<ers3i$ &oul< 3ave tremen<ous
a<vanta-es. 1irst> t3e -lobal environment &oul< be more o$en an< more rece$tive to American
values !! <emocracy> free mar?ets> an< t3e rule of la&. Secon<> suc3 a &orl< &oul< 3ave a better
c3ance of <ealin- coo$eratively &it3 t3e &orl<Ms maIor $roblems> suc3 as nuclear $roliferation>
t3reats of re-ional 3e-emony by rene-a<e states> an< lo&!level conflicts. 1inally> =.S. lea<ers3i$
&oul< 3el$ $reclu<e t3e rise of anot3er 3ostile -lobal rival> enablin- t3e =nite< States an< t3e
&orl< to avoi< anot3er -lobal col< or 3ot &ar an< all t3e atten<ant <an-ers> inclu<in- a -lobal
nuclear exc3an-e. =.S. lea<ers3i$ &oul< t3erefore be more con<ucive to -lobal stability t3an a
bi$olar or a multi$olar balance of $o&er system

3AC =rontline: C!ina Disadvantage B1>5C 19<
5$ .o 6m)act: Security concerns in 0atin America 'ill not lead to escalation
&ecause t!ere is )lenty of s)ace for coo)eration &et'een t!e (#S# and
C!ina#
-O5A-06A." 78
A-entinaA #Batin America> C3ina> an< t3e =nite< States: a 3o$eful trian-le' 2/DL>
7ut t3e most critical factor in favour of a $ositive!sum relations3i$ bet&een C3ina> Batin
America> an< t3e =nite< States is in t3e area of trilateral security. Buc?ily for t3e t3ree $arties>
Batin America is no e$icenter of &ea$ons of mass <estruction an< let3al transnational
terrorism. T3e main C3inese concerns vis!f!vis t3e area is Tai&an an< t3e $rovision of ener-y.
0n a<<ition to bot3 to$ics> &3ic3 are <isGuietin- matters for 4as3in-ton> t3e =nite< States
i<entifies ot3er Guestions t3at im$act its sensation of vulnerability resultin- from C3inaMs
-ro&in- ties &it3 Batin America. Amon- t3em are: C3inaMs latent military $roIection in t3e
re-ion> t3e :anama Canal> Colombia> Cuba> an< +eneEuela. 1or Batin America t3ere is a &i<e!
ran-in- set of security $roblems t3at 3ave more of a <ay!to!<ay an< <irect im$act on its citiEens:
t3e issue of &ea? states> t3e use an< abuse of illicit <ru-s> t3e ex$ansion of or-aniEe< crime> t3e
$roliferation of small arms> t3e <e-ra<ation of t3e environment> an< t3e -ro&t3 of corru$tion. A
ri-orous> unbiase< analysis of t3e trian-ular security a-en<a s3o&s t3at t3e most sensitive
concerns for 7eiIin- an< 4as3in-ton <o not necessarily lea< to conflict. Some issues may
reGuire a mutual accommo<ation (Tai&an> ener-y)> ot3ers subtle mec3anisms of consultation
(Cuba an< +eneEuela)> an< still ot3er to$ics are not $roblematic (Colombia an< t3e :anama
Canal) or real (C3inese military assertion in t3e re-ion). 0n $arallel> t3e most substantive
&orries for Batin America reGuire $olitical &ill> $reventive <i$lomacy an< coo$erative
treatmentA an en<eavor t3at coul< involve all t3ree $arties> &it3out in<ivi<ual costs an< &it3
s3are< benefits. To sum u$> t3ere is a 3u-e $otential for <esi-nin- an< im$lementin- a non!
confrontational -eo$olitics amon- Batin America> C3ina> an< t3e =nite< States. T3is> in turn>
may be no trivial contribution to &orl< $eace.
3AC =rontline: C!ina Disadvantage B 4 >5C 1<7
2$ .on-(niEue: C!inese investment in 0atin America is not sustaina&le#
4O06C:M6C" 11
(Buis Costa> international affairs stu<ent at 9eor-eto&n =niversityMs Sc3ool of 1orei-n ServiceA
#=.S. C3ins 6elations: S3oul< 4as3in-ton 7e Concerne< Jver 9ro&in- C3inese Tra<e in Batin
AmericaR' @une> 3tt$://&&&.$olicymic.com/articles//.8;*/u!s!c3ins!relations!s3oul<!
&as3in-ton!be!concerne<!over!-ro&in-!c3inese!tra<e!in!latin!america)
Vet 3o& &orrie< s3oul< t3e =.S. be over t3ese fi-uresR Jne t3in- to ta?e into consi<eration is
t3e fact t3at t3e =.S. still retains a comfortable lea< a-ainst C3ina in absolute terms:
4as3in-ton exc3an-es S.DD billion in -oo<s an< services &it3 Batin America annually> more
t3an t3ree times t3e re-ionMs tra<e &it3 C3ina. Moreover> t3e fact t3at most of C3inaMs
confirme< investments in Batin America tar-et t3e extraction of natural resources raises
Guestions about t3e sustainability of C3inaMs investment in t3e re-ion. 0t means t3at a su<<en
c3an-e in commo<ity $rices coul< 3ave serious conseGuences for C3inese forei-n <irect
investment into t3e re-ion. 1inally> accor<in- to 2CBAC <ata> most of C3inaMs tra<e &it3 Batin
America 3as been concentrate< in a small -rou$ of countries> namely Ar-entina> 7raEil> an<
:eru. T3is is a ?ey fact t3at must be ta?en into consi<eration &3en evaluatin- C3inaMs
involvement in t3e re-ion as a &3ole.
3AC =rontline: C!ina Disadvantage B 5 >5C 1<1
8$ -urn: C!inese investment is a front for C!inese military aggression in t!e
region" leading to 'ar 'it! t!e (#S#
,006S" 13
2x$ansion of C3inese 3umanitarian military initiatives to t3e re-ion> inclu<in- $artici$ation in
t3e =nite< %ations :eace?ee$in- 1orce in aiti (M0%=STA)> t3e An-el <e :aE bilateral
3umanitarian exercise bet&een :eru an< t3e :6C in %ovember 2D1D an< t3e visit of t3e 3os$ital
s3i$ =SS Comfort to t3e re-ion in ,ecember 2D11> re$resents an im$ortant a<<itional
<imension of t3is effect. At best> suc3 initiatives sen< a subtle messa-e to re-ional militaries t3at
t3e =nite< States is not t3e #only -ame in to&n>' (alt3ou-3 =S failure to -ive -reater $riority to
t3e re-ion ar-uably un<ercuts =S influences more t3an any C3inese initiative. At &orst> t3ese
initiatives $ermit t3e C3inese to en3ance t3eir &or?in- ?no&le<-e of Batin America5s militaries
an< facilities &3ile allo&in- t3em t3e ex$erience of o$eratin- in t3e re-ion. T3e value of t3is
ex$erience &oul< become obvious in t3e remote an< un<esirable event t3at t3e #frien<ly
com$etition' bet&een t3e :6C an< =nite< States turns more 3ostile an< t3e C3inese see? to
$roIect a less benevolent military $resence into t3e re-ion.
9$ -urn: C!inese influence in 0atin America 'ill cause increased regional
corru)tion" maing our Affirmative an im)act turn to t!eir argument#
A*MO.:" 13
(Ariel> ,irector of t3e =niversity of MiamiMs Center for Batin American Stu<iesA #2x$ortin-
Corru$tion>' 4inter> 3tt$://&&&.americasGuarterly.or-/Armony)
9iven C3ina5s increasin- business o$erations an< -ro&in- investment in Batin America>
corru$tion at 3ome is li?ely to 3ave a si-nificant im$act on societies at t3e receivin- en< of
C3inese ex$ansionism. T3e relations3i$ bet&een C3ina an< Batin America is an #encounter of
informalities.' Batin America 3as for <eca<es stru--le< &it3 corru$tion an< a feeble rule of la&>
an< C3ina5s ex$an<in- $resence may only serve to entrenc3 t3is feature of t3e <omestic
lan<sca$e.
4olitics Disadvantage .egative 1<3
1%C S3ell: :olitics ,isa<vanta-e.................................................................................................1L*
2%C 2xtensions: A/t ! "1 #Jbama 4on5t :us3' (1/2).................................................................1LL
2%C 2xtensions: A/t ! "2 #Con-ress 0sn5t 0nvolve<'...................................................................2D1
2%C 2xtensions: A/t ! "* #6e-ulations 4on5t Solve' (1/2)........................................................2D2
2%C 2xtensions: A/t ! "/ #6e$ublicans 4ill 4in' (1/2)............................................................2D/
2%C 2xtensions: A/t ! "5 #Bin? Turn'........................................................................................2D8
2%C 2xtensions: A/t ! "8 #:olitical Ca$ital is a Myt3'...............................................................2D;
2%C 2xtensions: A/t ! "; #6ules ,o %ot 9o 1ar 2nou-3' (1/2)................................................2D.
2%C 2xtensions: A/t ! ". #4inners 4in'...................................................................................21D
2%C 2xtensions: A/t ! "L #Jbama 4on5t :us3'..........................................................................211
:lan!S$ecific Bin?: Mexico.......................................................................................................... 212
:lan!S$ecific Bin?: +eneEuelan ,emocracy................................................................................21*
:lan!S$ecific Bin?: Cuban 2t3anol (1/*).....................................................................................21/
T2S0S: T3e affirmative $lan &ill be controversial an< lar-ely un$o$ular. :assa-e of
t3e $lan &ill cost :resi<ent Jbama $olitical ca$ital an< $o$ular su$$ort &it3 t3e $ublic.
Any lessenin- of $olitical ca$ital from its currently $recarious state &ill un<ermine t3e
very fra-ile c3ief obIective of 3is secon< term F namely> -ettin- maIor ne& climate
c3an-e re-ulations $asse<. =.S. climate c3an-e re-ulations are t3e only 3o$e &e 3ave to
avert a -lobal climate catastro$3e.
CDL Core Files 2013/14 10C Shell
"olitics Disad$a!tage 1/9
0#1
1.C S!ell: 4olitics Disadvantage 1<1
A$ (niEueness: O&ama !as )ro)osed ne' climate regulations t!at 'ill solve
(#S# emissions" and !e !as t!e )olitical strengt! to 'in t!e toug! &attle#
.A-6O.A0 MO(*.A0" 11
(6onal< 7ro&nsteinA #Time 0s Tic?in- for Jbama5s Climate A-en<a'> 8/2.>
3tt$://&&&.nationalIournal.com/columns/$olitical!connections/time!is!tic?in-!for!obama!s!
climate!a-en<a!2D1*D82;)
0n 3is first term> Jbama sou-3t le-islative limits on t3e carbon emissions associate< &it3 -lobal
climate c3an-e but faile< &3en t3e Senate s3elve< t3e #ca$!an<!tra<e' le-islation t3e ouse
$asse< in 2DDL. Jbama t3is &ee? announce< 3e &oul< $ursue t3e same -oals> $rimarily
t3rou-3 t3e 2nvironmental :rotection A-ency5s re-ulation of carbon emissions from existin-
$o&er $lants. T3ose re-ulations &oul< sGueeEe t3e use of coal to -enerate electricity. To-et3er
&it3 existin- rules im$rovin- automotive fuel economy an< ot3er $en<in- 2:A stan<ar<s t3at
effectively bar t3e construction of coal!fire< $o&er $lants> t3e ne& rules coul< ac3ieve Jbama5s
-oal of cuttin- emissions by nearly one!fift3 by 2D2D. Jbama5s announcement is alrea<y
-eneratin- $olitical storms. 7ut for institutional> economic> an< $olitical reasons> 3e 3as more
levera-e no& t3an <urin- 3is first!term le-islative failure. T3e fli$ si<e is t3at because 3e5s
relyin- on re-ulatory> not le-islative> aut3ority> 3is <ecisions &ill be easier to reverse if 3e
cannot armor!$late t3em before @anuary 2D1;> &3en a 6e$ublican coul< re-ain t3e 43ite
ouse. T3at5s &3y associates say t3e $resi<ent alrea<y feels t3e cloc? tic?in-.
0#1
+$ 0in: 0atin America rans as a lo' )riority for (#S# foreign )olicy H
*e)u&licans 'ill &attle any ne' O&ama initiative for t!e region
0A-6. AM,*6CA. ADF6SO*" 13
(:eter a?im> member of t3e A<visor boar< an< $resi<ent emeritus of t3e 0nter!American
,ialo-ueA An<rQs 6oEental> member of t3e A<visor boar<> $resi<ent of 6oEental X Asocia<os in
Mexico City an< senior fello& at t3e 7roo?in-s 0nstitutionA 6ubens 7arbosa> former ambassa<or
of 7raEil to t3e =nite< StatesA 6ior<an 6iott> <irector of t3e Batin American Stu<ies $ro-ram at
t3e @o3ns o$?ins Sc3ool of A<vance< 0nternational Stu<iesA #43at 4ill JbamaMs Secon< Term
Mean for Batin AmericaR' 11/D.> 3tt$://&&&.t3e<ialo-ue.or-/$a-e.cfmR
$a-e0,b*2X$ub0,b*1*5)
P: 7arac? Jbama &as re!electe< $resi<ent of t3e =nite< States on Tues<ay. 43at is 3is vision for forei-n
$olicy an< 3o& <oes Batin America fit into 3is $lansR o& &ill Batin American lea<ers an< t3eir citiEens
react to t3e election resultsR 43at role <i< Batinos in t3e =nite< States $lay in t3e election an< &3at <oes
t3at mean for =.S. $olicy c3an-es on issues suc3 as immi-ration> <ru-s an< CubaR A: :eter a?im>
member of t3e A<visor boar< an< $resi<ent emeritus of t3e 0nter!American ,ialo-ue: NAny s$eculation
about JbamaMs secon< term 3as to come mainly from 3is first!term $erformance. T3e cam$ai-n &as
about t3e can<i<ates an< t3eir bio-ra$3iesKnot about issues. %ot3in- su--ests Con-ress &ill be more
$ro<uctive. T3e ouse remains virtually unc3an-e<. T3e Senate &ill be more <ivisive still as most
remainin- mo<erate 6e$ublicans an< ,emocrats resi-ne< or lost t3eir seats. 4e &ill ?no& soon &3et3er
com$romise is $ossible &3en t3e lame!<uc? Con-ress returns next &ee?> an< be-ins <iscussion of t3e
fiscal cliff embro-lio. T3e best -uess is t3at Con-ress &ill fin< a &ay> not to resolve t3e $roblem> but to
<efer its conseGuences. T3e election results focuse< attention on immi-ration $olicy> &3ic3 bot3
6e$ublicans an< ,emocrats may be motivate< to a<<ress. :resi<ent JbamaMs <eclare< intention to
a<<ress immi-ration &as surely reinforce< by t3e 3u-e Batino vote. Many of t3e 6e$ublicans &3o bloc?e<
$revious immi-ration initiatives &ill resist a-ain. 7ut some reco-niEe t3eir $arty may become irrelevant
unless t3ey ta?e seriously t3e Batino an< blac? constituencies t3at accounte< for more t3an /D $ercent of
JbamaMs total. =.S. immi-ration reform &oul< be a &elcome c3an-e in most of Batin America>
$articularly in Mexico> Central America an< t3e Caribbean. Jbama may see? to $ursue furt3er o$enin-s
to CubaKbut t3ese &ill be limite< unless t3e Cuban -overnment s3o&s a &illin-ness to reci$rocate &it3
ne& 3uman ri-3ts measures or $olitical c3an-es. ,ru- $olicy is not 3i-3 on t3e =.S. a-en<a> but t3e
a$$roval in Colora<o an< 4as3in-ton of ballot initiatives to le-aliEe mariIuana use may s$ar? &i<er
<iscussion on <ru- issues. 7ut Mitt 6omney offere< t3e most si-nificant $olicy $ro$osal for Batin
America> &3en calle< for more intensive =.S. efforts to $ursue multi$lyin- economic o$$ortunities in t3e
re-ion.N A: An<rQs 6oEental> member of t3e A<visor boar<> $resi<ent of 6oEental X Asocia<os in Mexico
City an< senior fello& at t3e 7roo?in-s 0nstitution: N:resi<ent JbamaMs re!election is a &elcome
<evelo$ment for Batin Americans in -eneral> an< Mexicans in $articular. Alt3ou-3 many of JbamaMs
cam$ai-n $romises in 2DD. relevant to t3e re-ion remain unrealiEe<> t3ere is a mo<icum of 3o$e t3at as a
lea<er in 3is secon< term> &it3 more $olitical ca$ital to s$en<> 3e can at least ma?e a stron-er effort to
tac?le com$re3ensive immi-ration reform an< tra<e issues critical to Batin American $ros$erity.
Alt3ou-3 0 <onMt foresee any maIor c3an-e in t3e =nite< StatesM forei-n $olicy to&ar< t3e re-ion>
es$ecially as lon- as Af-3anistan> 0ran an< t3e Mi<<le 2ast remain $riorities for 4as3in-ton> t3at may
not necessarily be a ba< t3in-. 4e often com$lain &3en 4as3in-ton $ays too muc3 attention to us> an<
eGually &3en t3ereMs less overt interest in t3e re-ion> but 0 believe t3at Jbama 3as mostly s3o&n a muc3
more mature attitu<e to&ar< Batin America over t3e last four years t3an 3as tra<itionally been t3e case.
0#1
0#1
[Latin A&erican Advisor evidence continues, no text deleted]
T3is &ill 3o$efully also be t3e case as 3is a<ministration continues t3rou-3 2D18. :resumably> t3ere &ill
continue to be a stron- focus on com$letin- on-oin- tra<e ne-otiations> es$ecially t3e Trans!:acific
:artners3i$> to o$en ne& o$$ortunities for economic -ro&t3 an< 3o$efully a re!visitin- of %A1TA as a
?ey o$tion to ma?e %ort3 America more com$etitive on t3e -lobal scene. Batinos $laye< a ?ey role in re!
electin- Jbama> Iust as t3ey <i< in 2DD.> an< t3e one messa-e t3at 6e$ublicans 3ave to ta?e 3ome at t3is
sta-e is t3at t3e anti!immi-rant> exclusionary $olicies voice< <urin- t3e cam$ai-n by Mitt 6omney> t3e
Tea :arty an< ot3er conservatives &ere a ?ey factor in t3eir ultimate <efeat. Many of JbamaMs liberal
vie&s on minority ri-3ts an< tolerance turne< out to be muc3 more $o$ular amon- Americans as a &3ole
t3an t3e o$$osin- 6e$ublican $ositions on t3ose same issues.N A: 6ubens 7arbosa> former ambassa<or of
7raEil to t3e =nite< States: N0n 3is secon< term> Jbama &ill be more intereste< in loo?in- for 3is le-acy in
3istory. T3e =.S. -overnment &ill ten< to be more $roactive an< try to increase its influence in t3e current
3ot s$ots: :a?istan> Syria> 0ran an< else&3ere in t3e Mi<<le 2ast. T3e relations3i$ &it3 C3ina &ill
continue to be 3i-3 on t3e forei-n $olicy a-en<a. avin- in min< t3is scenario> Batin America &ill
continue to be off t3e ra<ar of =.S. <ecision ma?ers: t3e re-ion &ill remain a lo& $riority for 4as3in-ton.
,es$ite t3is fact> t3e reaction of t3e Batin American lea<ers an< citiEens to JbamaMs re!election 3as been
very $ositive. T3e role of Batinos in t3e election &as im$ortant an< in some $laces crucial. 0n terms of
$olicy c3an-es on issues suc3 as immi-ration> <ru-s an< Cuba> Jbama &ill continue to face stron-
o$$osition from t3e 6e$ublican :arty but 0 &oul< not be sur$rise< if ne& i<eas coul< be a<vance< by t3e
a<ministration es$ecially in relation to immi-ration an< Cuba.N A: 6ior<an 6oett> <irector of t3e Batin
American Stu<ies $ro-ram at t3e @o3ns o$?ins Sc3ool of A<vance< 0nternational Stu<ies: N43ile t3e
$resi<entMs re!election is &elcome in -eneral terms> it is <ifficult to ima-ine Batin America &ill receive
-reater attention in t3e next four years. Con-ress remains <ee$ly <ivi<e<. T3e a<ministrationMs forei-n
$olicy $riorities &ill continue to focus on C3ina> t3e Mi<<le 2ast an< t3e on-oin- fiscal c3allen-es. 9iven
t3e stron- turnout by t3e Batino community> one area t3at s3oul< receive $riority is continue<
immi-ration reform> but it is t3e t3ir< rail for t3e 6e$ublican maIority in t3e ouse. 0n -eneral> t3e
<emocratic -overnments of t3e re-ion &ill &elcome t3e $resi<entMs election &it3out -reat ex$ectation for
maIor $olicy initiatives. T3e $o$ulist re-imes &ill continue to <enounce any <emocratically electe<
a<ministration. T3e <ea<loc? over Cuba &ill continue unless t3ere is a <ramatic lea<ers3i$ s3ift to a ne&
-eneration. T3e maIor $olicy initiative t3at &oul< be &elcome in t3e re-ion is on <ru- $olicy> but t3at
issue &ill remain taboo.N
0#1
C$ 6nternal 0in: A ne' )olicy controversy 'ill de-rail O&ama%s second-
term )roIect to get climate c!ange regulations )assed" '!ic! 'ill reEuire all
of !is current )olitical ca)ital
.A-6O.A0 MO(*.A0" 11
(Amy ar<erA #Jbama :lans Marat3on S$rint on Climate C3an-e' 8/2/>
3tt$://&&&.nationalIournal.com/<aily/obama!$lans!marat3on!s$rint!on!climate!c3an-e!
2D1*D82/)
:resi<ent Jbama is rea<y to ta?e one more s3ot at -lobal &armin- &it3 t3e last> least!$o$ular>
an< messiest tool 3e5s -ot left: re-ulations a<ministere< by t3e $olitically besie-e<
2nvironmental :rotection A-ency. 0t &on5t be $o$ular> it mi-3t not &or?> an< it coul<
Ieo$ar<iEe 3is $ic? to 3ea< 2:A. 7ut t3e reality is t3at> t3ree years after Con-ress ?ille< a ca$!
an<!tra<e bill> Jbama is runnin- out of time. 0f 3e <oesn5t finaliEe 2:A rules controllin-
-reen3ouse!-as emissions before 3e leaves t3e 43ite ouse> a 6e$ublican $resi<ent> or a 9J:!
controlle< Senate> coul< un<o t3e rulesKan< 3is environmental le-acy. #e is serious about
ma?in- it a secon<!term $riority>' eat3er Oic3al> Jbama5s to$ ener-y an< climate a<viser> sai<
at an event last &ee?. #e ?no&s t3is is a le-acy issue.' T3e effort amounts to bot3 a marat3on
an< a s$rint> in &3ic3 Jbama must simultaneously navi-ate $olitical> le-al> an< $olicy 3ur<les
t3at coul< 3alt 3is efforts if 3e fails to ma$ out a clear &ay for&ar<. At issue is a $air of
re-ulations controllin- -reen3ouse!-as emissions from ne& an< existin- $o&er $lants> t3e latter
of &3ic3 account for nearly /D $ercent of t3e country5s 3eat!tra$$in- emissions. 2:A $ro$ose<
rules for ne& $lants last s$rin- but misse< its A$ril <ea<line to finaliEe t3em. T3e a-ency 3as
also $ut on ice $arallel rules tar-etin- almost 8DD existin- coal!fire< $o&er $lants. T3e rules
coverin- existin- $lants coul< 3ave t3e -reatest im$act> bot3 on cuttin- carbon emissions an<
raisin- t3e cost of electricity> because coal is t3e c3ea$est> most $revalent> an< <irtiest &ay to
$ro<uce electricity. 0n a s$eec3 at 9eor-eto&n =niversity on Tues<ay> Jbama &ill outline a
timeline for 2:A to move for&ar< re-ulatin- carbon emissions at ne& an< existin- $o&er $lants.
#T3e time &ill -o very Guic?ly because re-ulations <on5t move Guic?ly t3rou-3 t3e $rocess>' sai<
@oe Cru-er> &3o serve< as <e$uty associate <irector for ener-y an< climate c3an-e at t3e 43ite
ouse Council on 2nvironmental Puality <urin- Jbama5s first term. #0t &ill be a bit of a time
crunc3 to -et it <one by t3e en< of t3e Jbama secon< term.' Cru-er> &3o no& <irects ener-y
an< environmental $olicy at t3e 7i$artisan :olicy Center> $re<icte< t3e a<ministration &ill
succee< because Jbama is $uttin- 3is o&n $olitical ca$ital into t3e issue. #T3ey &ill fi-ure out
one &ay or anot3er 3o& to -et it <one>' 3e sai<.
0#1
D$ 6m)act:
1$ O&ama%s )lan solves glo&al 'arming &ecause it is com)re!ensive and
targets t!e largest source of emissions#
;(A*D6A." 11
(#Jbama an< climate c3an-e: fres3 air' 8/25>
3tt$://&&&.-uar<ian.co.u?/commentisfree/2D1*/Iun/25/obama!climate!c3an-e)
7arac? JbamaMs $lans for cuttin- =S -reen3ouse -as emissions re$resent an im$ortant first.
:iecemeal attem$ts 3ave been ma<e to a<<ress t3e issue> but t3is is t3e first time a
com$re3ensive strate-y to combat climate c3an-e 3as been unveile<. 1or t3e first time> limits
&ill be im$ose< on t3e carbon <ioxi<e out$ut of existin- $o&er $lants> &3ic3> as t3e bi--est
sin-le source> account for /DY of AmericaMs carbon emissions. S3ares in coal 3ave $lun-e< but>
in climate c3an-e terms> t3at is a -oo< a t3in-. 0t is a si-n t3at Mr Jbama is not tin?erin-
aroun< t3e e<-es> but attac?in- t3e source of t3e $roblem.
3$ Continuing to emit CO3 into t!e atmos)!ere 'ill turn t!e oceans into
acid and destroy t!e &ase of t!e food c!ain#
CA0D,6*A" 75
(Cen> :3.,.> ,e$artment of 9lobal 2colo-y at Carne-ie 0nstitution of 4as3in-ton> #Jceans
turnin- to aci< from rise in CJ2>' @une *D> 3tt$://&&&.eure?alert.or-/$ubZreleases/2DD5!
D8/ci!ottD8*DD5.$3$)
A re$ort issue< by t3e 6oyal Society in t3e =.C. soun<s t3e alarm about t3e &orl<Ms oceans. N0f CJ2 from
3uman activities continues to rise> t3e oceans &ill become so aci<ic by 21DD it coul< t3reaten marine life
in &ays &e canMt antici$ate>N commente< ,r. Cen Cal<eira> co!aut3or of t3e re$ort an< a ne&ly a$$ointe<
staff scientist at t3e Carne-ie 0nstitutionMs ,e$artment of 9lobal 2colo-y in Stanfor<> California.c T3e
re$ort on ocean aci<ification &as release< to<ay by t3e 6oyal Society. See 3tt$://&&&.royalsoc.ac.u?/
Many scientists vie& t3e &orl<Ms oceans as an im$ortant sin? for ca$turin- t3e 3uman!in<uce<
-reen3ouse -as CJ2 an< slo&in- -lobal &armin-. Marine $lants soa? u$ CJ2 as t3ey breat3e it in an<
convert it to foo< <urin- $3otosynt3esis. Jr-anisms also use it to ma?e t3eir s?eletons an< s3ells> &3ic3
eventually form se<iments. 4it3 t3e ex$losion of fossil!fuel burnin- over t3e $ast 2DD years> it 3as been
estimate< t3at more t3an a t3ir< of t3e 3uman!ori-inate< -reen3ouse -as 3as been absorbe< by t3e
oceans. 43ile marine or-anisms nee< CJ2 to survive> &or? by Cal<eira an< collea-ues s3o&s t3at too
muc3 CJ2 in t3e ocean coul< lea< to ecolo-ical <isru$tion an< extinctions in t3e marine environment.
43en CJ2 -as <issolves into t3e ocean it $ro<uces carbonic aci<> &3ic3 is corrosive to s3ells of marine
or-anisms an< can interfere &it3 t3e oxy-en su$$ly. 0f current tren<s continue> t3e scientists believe t3e
aci<ic &ater coul< interru$t t3e $rocess of s3ell an< coral formation an< a<versely affect ot3er or-anisms
<e$en<ent u$on corals an< s3ellfis3. T3e aci<ity coul< also ne-atively im$act ot3er calcifyin- or-anisms>
suc3 as $3yto$lan?ton an< Eoo$lan?ton> some of t3e most im$ortant $layers at t3e base of t3e $lanetMs
foo< c3ain. N4e can $re<ict t3e ma-nitu<e of t3e aci<ification base< on t3e evi<ence t3at 3as been
collecte< from t3e oceanMs surface> t3e -eolo-ical an< 3istorical recor<> ocean circulation mo<els> an<
0#1
&3atMs ?no&n about ocean c3emistry>N continue< Cal<eira. N43at &e canMt $re<ict is Iust &3at aci<ic
oceans mean to ocean ecolo-y an< to 2art3Ms climate. 0nternational an< -overnmental bo<ies must focus
on t3is area before itMs too late.N
0#1
3$ Ocean &iodiversity is necessary to sustain all life on eart!#
C*A6;" 71
(6obin Cun<is> Associate :rofess of Ba& at 0n<iana> #Ta?in- Ste$s To&ar< Marine 4il<erness
:rotectionR 1is3in- an< Coral 6eef Marine 6eserves in 1lori<a an< a&aii>' 4inter> */
Mc9eor-e B. 6ev. 155)
More -enerally> #ocean ecosystems $lay a maIor role in t3e -lobal -eoc3emical cyclin- of all t3e
elements t3at re$resent t3e basic buil<in- bloc?s of livin- or-anisms> carbon> nitro-en> oxy-en>
$3os$3orous> an< sulfur> as &ell as ot3er less abun<ant but necessary elements'. 0n a very real
an< <irect sense> t3erefore> 3uman <e-ra<ation of marine ecosystems im$airs t3e $lanet5s
ability to su$$ort life. Maintainin- bio<iversity is often critical to maintainin- t3e functions of
marine ecosystems. Current evi<ence s3o&s t3at> in -eneral> an ecosystem5s ability to ?ee$
functionin- in t3e face of <isturbance is stron-ly <e$en<ent on its bio<iversity> #in<icatin- t3at
more <iverse ecosystems are more stable.
CDL Core Files 2013/14
"olitics Disad$a!tage
3.C ,xtensions: A>t - ?1 @O&ama /on%t 4us!A B1>3C 1<<
-!ey say t!at O&ama 'on%t get climate c!ange regulations )assed in t!e status Euo"
&ut # # #
1$ O&ama is )us!ing t!e rules and !as )olitical strengt! &e!ind !im to
overcome o))osition# -!eir evidence is s)eculative '!ile ours is conclusive#
,xtend our .A-6O.A0 MO(*.A0 evidence#
3$ O&ama 'ill )us! for climate c!ange &ecause !e 'ants to create a climate
legacy#
;(A*D6A." 11
(6ic3ar< Sc3iffmanA #:resi<ent Jbama is tal?in- bi- on climate c3an-e> but &ill 3e actR' 8/25>
3tt$://&&&.-uar<ian.co.u?/commentisfree/2D1*/Iun/25/obama!climate!c3an-e!s$eec3!more!
$romises)
T3atMs not too 3ar< to ans&er. 0f a $resi<entMs first term is <e<icate< to $leasin- t3e voters> t3e
secon< term often focuses on t3e even tric?ier business of $leasin- $osterity. 1ree< of t3e nee<
to be reelecte<> our lea<ers (&3en t3ey are not $reoccu$ie< &it3 scan<als li?e 6onal< 6ea-anMs
0ran!Contra imbro-lio> an< 7ill ClintonMs im$eac3ment over t3e Monica Be&ins?y affair)
become su<<enly obsesse< &it3 insurin- Nt3eir le-acyN. 0n t3e tra<ition of t3e curse of t3e
secon< term> :resi<ent JbamaMs 3as -otten off to a roc?y start &it3 t3e 7en-3aEi> t3e 06S an<
no& t3e %SA scan<als comin- 3ot on t3e 3eels of one anot3er. 7ut also true to form> t3e
$resi<ent is loo?in- for re<em$tion in some 3istorically conseGuential act F in t3is case $uttin-
t3e bra?e on -lobal &armin-. 7ut its too early to say if t3e $resi<ent 3as earne< 3is $lace in t3e
Climate all of 1ame. Jbama &ill 3ave to follo& u$ &it3 ot3er actions li?e nixin- t3e Ceystone
aB $i$eline. To<ay a-ain t3e $resi<ent ?ic?e< t3at troublesome can <o&n t3e roa<> -ivin- no
real 3int about &3at 3eMll <eci<e> alt3ou-3 3e <i< say 3e &ill a$$rove t3e $i$eline only if 3e
<etermines t3at it N&ill not increase climate $ollutionN. Jbama &ill also 3ave to $us3 3ar< at
future -lobal meetin-s li?e t3e u$comin- =nite< %ations 1rame&or? Convention on Climate
C3an-e (=%1CCC) in 2D15 rat3er t3an &aterin- <o&n international a-reements> as t3e =S 3as
too often <one in t3e $ast. 0f t3e $resi<ent can muster t3e $olitical caIones to ta?e t3ese
controversial ste$s> t3en 3e may in<ee< be remembere< as t3e climate 3ero 3e clearly &is3es to
be.
3.C ,xtensions: A>t - ?1 @O&ama /on%t 4us!A B3>3C 377
1$ O&ama%s ne' regulatory a))roac! means !e currently !as t!e votes to
overcome o))osition#
.A-6O.A0 MO(*.A0" 11
4it3 6e$ublicans controllin- t3e ouse> Jbama 3as even less c3ance to<ay of attractin- enou-3
votes to $ass carbon!limitin- le-islation t3an 3e <i< in 2DDL. Vet because 3e is actin- t3rou-3
re-ulation> o$$onents must amass enou-3 votes to sto$ 3im. T3at -ives 3im t3e institutional
e<-e. =sin- t3e Con-ressional 6evie& Act> t3e ouse &oul< li?ely $ass a resolution bloc?in- t3e
re-ulation &3en it5s com$lete<> an< a narro& Senate maIority mi-3t follo&. 7ut Jbama &oul<
inevitably veto suc3 a resolution> an< critics are unli?ely to reac3 t3e t&o!t3ir<s maIorities
reGuire< to overturn 3im.
3.C ,xtensions: A>t - ?3 @Congress 6sn%t 6nvolvedA 371
-!ey say t!at climate regulations don%t go t!roug! Congress" so Congress
can%t &loc t!em" &ut # # #
1$ Congress can undo O&ama%s rules if !e creates too muc! controversy or
angers *e)u&licans#
.A-6O.A0 MO(*.A0" 11
(Amy ar<erA #Jbama :lans Marat3on S$rint on Climate C3an-e' 8/2/>
3tt$://&&&.nationalIournal.com/<aily/obama!$lans!marat3on!s$rint!on!climate!c3an-e!
2D1*D82/)
T3e secon< $olitical 3ur<le is t3e 2D1/ mi<term elections. T3e %ational 6e$ublican Senatorial
Committee is alrea<y tar-etin- vulnerable ,emocrats u$ for reelection. . . . T3e a<ministration
must t3rea< its re-ulatory $rocess carefully t3rou-3 t3e mi<terms> an< not Iust to avoi<
en<an-erin- ,emocrats. 0f 6e$ublicans &ere to &in bac? t3e Senate> it coul< create yet anot3er
3ur<le for Jbama5s a-en<a: Senate 6e$ublicans are ex$ecte< to invo?e t3e Con-ressional
6evie& Act to un<o t3e rules. T3e act> use< successfully only once since its creation in 1LL8>
allo&s senators to by$ass t3e maIority lea<er an< force a vote reGuirin- only 51 votes to $ass a
resolution nullifyin- re-ulations finaliEe< &it3in 8D <ays. 0t &as use< t&ice in t3e last session of
Con-ress to try to un<o 2:A rules> an< &as unsuccessful bot3 times. T3e 43ite ouse is
re$orte<ly &orrie< suc3 an effort coul< succee< a-ainst 2:A5s climate rules. Jbama is
#concerne< about &3et3er or not 3e 3as enou-3 su$$ort in t3e Senate to <efen< vetoes of
environmental re-ulations>' sai< Mic3ael Ciesc3nic?> C2J an< cofoun<er of C62,J> a cell!
$3one service $rovi<er 3eavily involve< in a<vocatin- for action on climate c3an-e.
3$ O&ama%s middle-road a))roac! 'ill narro'ly succeed in t!e status Euo
=A00O." 11
(7ran<on> recent -ra< stu<ent at CS=B7 &it3 a 7A in istory from 1or<3am =niversityA
#Jbama 0s Movin- A3ea< Jn Climate K 4it3 Jr 4it3out Con-ressM el$ '> 8/2;>
3tt$://&&&.$olicymic.com/articles/5182*/obama!is!movin-!a3ea<!on!climate!&it3!or!
&it3out!con-ress!3el$)
0n $articular> t3ere is a stron- i<eolo-ical <ivi<e on t3is issue. T3e oil an< natural -as in<ustries
may 3ave a lot of 6e$ublican allies> but money asi<e> t3e real issue is t3eir refusal to acce$t
increase< re-ulations from a -overnment t3at alrea<y 3as its 3an<s in ot3er in<ustries.
6e-ulation> in t3eir vie&> stifles -ro&t3 an< yes> it coul< eat a&ay at $rofits> but t3ey believe it is
more about a <esire to control t3e free mar?et. Jbama is attem$tin- to fin< a mi<<le $at3 &3ere
3e <oesn5t a$$ear too a--ressive &it3 re-ulation &3ile still $layin- 3ero to t3e
environmentalists. Climate c3an-e is real> but &it3 stron- o$$osition> it is <ifficult to ma?e
stron- $olicy s3ifts. A lon-!term strate-y is necessary &3en t3e com$re3ensive a$$roac3 is not
so Guic? an< easily attainable. JbamaMs -oal a$$ears to be to ma?e climate c3an-e more of an
issue <o&n t3e roa<> &3en 3o$efully some more 6e$ublicans &ill 3ave c3an-e< t3eir min<s.
6i-3t no&> 6e$ublicans are t3e ones 3ol<in- Jbama5s a-en<a bac?.
3.C ,xtensions: A>t - ?1 @*egulations /on%t SolveA B1>3C 373
-!ey say t!at O&ama%s climate regulations 'on%t 'or any'ay" so t!ere%s no
im)act to t!eir not getting )assed" &ut # # #
1$ -!e ne' regulations are a com)re!ensive a))roac! to glo&al 'arming
t!at tacles t!e &iggest emission source# ,xtend our ;(A*D6A. evidence#
3$ O&ama%s rules target )o'er )lants" '!ic! are t!e most im)ortant
contri&utor to green!ouse gas emissions#
.A-(*A0 *,SO(*C,S D,=,.S, CO(.C60" 11
(9race 9illA #:resi<ential Bea<ers3i$: :resi<ent Jbama Announces Ban<mar? Climate Action
:lan'> 8/2.> 3tt$://s&itc3boar<.nr<c.or-/blo-s/--ill/$resi<entialZlea<ers3i$Z$resi<.3tml)
T3is &ee?> :resi<ent Jbama too? a bi- ste$ to&ar<s combatin- climate c3an-e an< re<ucin-
carbon $ollution. 0n a s$eec3 at 9eor-eto&n =niversity> t3e :resi<ent unveile< 3is $lan to limit
-reen3ouse -as emissions from existin- $o&er $lants. 0t &as an 3istoric moment in movin- t3e
national a-en<a for&ar< on climate an< $rotectin- communities an< our natural environment.
:o&er $lants are t3e lar-est source of -reen3ouse -as emissions in t3e =nite< States> accountin-
for /D $ercent of our carbon foot$rint in t3e atmos$3ere. 4it3 t3e atmos$3eric content of
carbon <ioxi<e reac3in- an un$rece<ente< /DD $arts $er million last mont3> t3e time to act to
curb emissions is no&.
1$ O&ama%s )lan 'ill address t!e longest-lasting emission sources
=6,0D" 11
(C3ris> <irector of t3e ,e$artment of 9lobal 2colo-y of t3e Carne-ie 0nstitution for Science an<
co!c3air of a &or?in- -rou$ tas?e< &it3 assessin- climate c3an-e im$acts> a<a$tation> an<
vulnerability for t3e 0nter-overnmental :anel on Climate C3an-eA #Jbama is ri-3t on climate
c3an-e'> 8/2L> 3tt$://&&&.cnn.com/2D1*/D8/2./o$inion/fiel<!obama!climate!c3an-e)
T3e first ste$R A<<ress t3e root of t3e issue> an< t3is is &3y t3e action Jbama outline< is smart.
T3e $lan reco-niEes t3e brea<t3 of t3e $roblem an< focuses on a &i<e ran-e of emissions
sources. 0t also reco-niEes t3at not all t3e <ama-es can be avoi<e< an< t3at buil<in- resilience
nee<s to be a $art of t3e $ac?a-e. Ta?inaction no& is also cost!effective. Slo&in- an<
eventually sto$$in- emissions &ill ta?e time. T3e -lobal ener-y system $ro<ucin- most of t3e
carbon <ioxi<e emissions is massive> an< inclu<es t3ousan<s of $o&er $lants an< more t3an a
billion ve3icles. T3e com$onents of t3e ener-y system are lon-!lastin-: Cars are <riven for one
to t&o <eca<es. :o&er $lants are <esi-ne< to run for u$ to a 3alf!century. 7uil<in-s> &3ic3 use
ener-y for 3eatin-> coolin-> li-3tin-> an< runnin- eGui$ment> can stan< for a century or more.
3.C ,xtensions: A>t - ?1 @*egulations /on%t SolveA B3>3C 371
4$ 6t%s try or die: t!e longer emissions are allo'ed to gro'" t!e more
damage is done to t!e atmos)!ere and t!e less reversi&le c!anges &ecome#
=6,0D" 11
43y t3e rus3R Climate c3an-e is <riven by emissions of a ran-e of 3eat!tra$$in- -ases>
es$ecially t3e total emissions of carbon <ioxi<e> &3ic3 3ave been $um$in- out since t3e
be-innin- of t3e 0n<ustrial 6evolution. o& muc3R T3rou-3 2D12> t3at total is about 1>;DD
billion tons of carbon <ioxi<e from fossil fuel combustion an< cuttin- <o&n forests. 0n 2D12>
carbon <ioxi<e emissions in t3e =.S. &ere 1L./ tons $er $erson or about ;5D $oun<s $er $erson
$er &ee?. :er ca$ita carbon <ioxi<e emissions in t3e =.S. may be lo&er no& t3an t3ey &ere in
1LLD> but t3e avera-e American still emits t3ree times t3e -lobal avera-e. 9lobal annual carbon
<ioxi<e emissions continue to -ro& ra$i<ly> &it3 emissions in 2D12 more t3an 5DY above 1LLD
levels. 6ecently> an< for t3e first time in more t3an 2 million years> t3e concentration of carbon
<ioxi<e in t3e atmos$3ere climbe< above /DD $arts $er million> *;Y 3i-3er t3an in 1.DD. T3e
resultin- -lobal &armin-> about 1.5 <e-rees 1a3ren3eit> &ill $ersist for at least 1>DDD years. 4it3
every $assin- year> t3e $ool of total carbon <ioxi<e emissions -ro&s bi--er> causin- more
&armin- !! an< more &armin- lea<s to -reater <ama-es from climate> &eat3er extremes li?e
3eat &aves> 3eavy rainfall> an< coastal storm sur-e> as &ell as altere< cro$ yiel<s> t3reats to
3uman 3ealt3> an< increase< ris?s of &il<fire.
3.C ,xtensions: A>t - ?4 @*e)u&licans /ill /inA B1>3C 374
-!ey say t!at *e)u&licans are a&le to &loc climate regulations in t!e status
Euo" &ut # # #
1$ O&ama is in a uniEue )osition to 'in on climate c!ange &ecause )u&lic
su))ort and economic evidence is 'it! !im# -!eir evidence is generic and
not a&out t!e actual regulations# ,xtend our .A-6O.A0 MO(*.A0
evidence#
3$ C!ea) natural gas !as lessened fears a&out t!e economic conseEuences
of climate regulations" '!ic! target coal )lants
.A-6O.A0 MO(*.A0" 11
T3e economic climate for action 3as also im$rove<. 6e-ulations t3at <iscoura-e coal by limitin-
carbon &oul< follo& t3e mar?et5s existin- current. . . . utilities in 2D12 relie< nearly as muc3 on
natural -as (*D $ercent) as coal (*; $ercent). Alt3ou-3 coal 3as sli-3tly reo$ene< its a<vanta-e
as -as $rices 3ave inc3e< u$> t3e $ros$ect of stable> affor<able natural -as to re$lace coal is
<iminis3in- fear t3at emission limits &oul< s$i?e electricity $ricesA utility executives also fin< a
transition to -as less Iarrin- t3an t3e -enerational lea$ to solar or &in< many envisa-e< in 2DDL.
7ecause of lo& natural!-as $rices> says @erry Taylor> a senior fello& at t3e libertarian Cato
0nstitute> #economically t3e table is set ... (for) a maIor move a-ainst coal.'
1$ O&ama no' !as t!e &etter )olitical )osition H current o))osition to ,4A
regulations comes from )olitically 'ea states
.A-6O.A0 MO(*.A0" 11
:olitically Jbama is better $ositione< for t3e fi-3t> too. T3at5s not so muc3 because $ublic
o$inion 3as s3ifte<. Com$arin- 2DDL to 2D1*> :e& 6esearc3 Center $olls s3o& t3at sli-3tly
more a<ults believe 3uman activity is c3an-in- t3e climate> &it3 -ains 3eaviest amon-
in<e$en<ents. . . . Jbama5s re!election <emonstrate< ,emocrats coul< sustain a $resi<ential
maIority <es$ite un$rece<ente< ener-y!in<ustry s$en<in- a-ainst t3em. 6esource!<e$en<ent
states t3at -enerate t3e most carbon $er <ollar of economic out$ut &ill $robably eru$t most
over furt3er 2:A re-ulation. 7ut in $resi<ential races> ,emocrats can survive t3at 3it: 1; of t3e
2D most carbon!intensive states (accor<in- to fe<eral fi-ures) vote< for Mitt 6omney in 2D12>
&3ile 1. of t3e 2D least carbon!intensive bac?e< Jbama. T3e 1/ ,emocratic senators from t3e
most carbon!intensive states &ill face -reater ris?> but some &oul< re<uce t3eir ex$osure by
o$$osin- any 2:A re-ulation.
3.C ,xtensions: A>t - ?4 @*e)u&licans /ill /inA B3>3C 375
4$ O&ama%s ne' regulations 'ill get im)lemented" des)ite current
o))osition" &ecause t!e )u&lic recogniGes climate dangers#
;(A*D6A." 11
$romises)
7ut t3e broa< stro?es of JbamaMs ne& $lan are im$ressive: tou-3 re-ulations on -reen3ouse -as
emissions> ne& ener-y efficiency stan<ar<s for a$$liances> rene&able ener-y <evelo$ment on
$ublic lan<s> billions of a<<itional fe<eral <ollars to su$$ort t3e launc3 of -reen tec3nolo-ies>
an< coor<inate< action &it3 state an< local -overnments to 3el$ miti-ate an< a<a$t to t3e
effects of climate c3an-e. e also $le<-e< t3at t3e fe<eral -overnment &oul< increase t3e
electricity it uses from rene&ables to 2DY in t3e next seven years. T3is time> t3e $resi<ent is not
&aitin- for t3e 6e$ublicans to come on boar<. eMs man<atin- fe<eral a-encies to ma?e t3e
c3an-es unilaterally &it3out 3avin- to -o to Con-ress for a$$roval. 0n &3at &ill li?ely be t3e
most controversial move of all> Jbama <irecte< t3e 2nvironmental :rotection A-ency (2:A)
un<er t3e aut3ority of t3e Clean Air Act to issue ne& re-ulations on carbon <ioxi<e emissions
from AmericaMs $o&er $lants> &3ic3 are res$onsible for /DY of =S carbon out$ut. Bast year> t3e
2:A $ro$ose< limitin- carbon from ne&ly built $lants> alt3ou-3 it is yet to im$lement t3at rule.
%o& t3e a-ency &ill set strin-ent stan<ar<s for existin- $o&er $lants as &ell F a very bi- <eal>
since many of t3ese facilities are still fuele< by carbon!s$e&in- coal. Coal $lants &ill eit3er 3ave
to s&itc3 over to cleaner burnin- natural -as> seGuester t3e CJ2 from t3eir stac?s> a tric?y an<
ex$ensive o$eration> or close u$ s3o$. A recent ,u?e =niversity $oll s3o&s stron- su$$ort for
Nre-ulatin- -reen3ouse -as emissions from $o&er $lants an< factoriesN (8/Y su$$ort t3is versus
1/Y o$$ose<). 7ut itMs not li?ely to -o <o&n &ell in t3e coal belts of t3e mi<&est an< t3e inter!
mountain &est. ouse s$ea?er @o3n 7oe3ner <i<nMt &ait for t3e actual announcement to blast
t3e ex$ecte< ne& rules: N0 t3in? t3is is absolutely craEy>N t3e ouse S$ea?er sai< last &ee?.
N43y &oul< you &ant to increase t3e cost of ener-y an< ?ill more American Iobs at a time &3en
t3e American $eo$le are still as?in- &3ere are t3e IobsRN 0n 3is s$eec3 to<ay> t3e $resi<ent sai<
t3at t3is vie& reflects a Nfun<amental lac? of fait3 in American business an< American
in-enuityN. Movin- to rene&ables &ill serve> 3e sai<> as Nan en-ine for -ro&t3 for <eca<es to
comeN. 0n fact> most voters see suc3 a star? <ivision bet&een NIobsN on one 3an< an< Nt3e
climateN on t3e ot3er as bein- sim$listic. 6euters re$orte< on a :e& survey earlier t3is year in
&3ic3> NAn astoun<in- ;* to 21Y maIority reIecte< t3e notion t3at America 3as to c3oose
bet&een t3e environment an< t3e economy because more environmental re-ulations M&ill
increase costs> 3urt our economic recovery an< <estroy IobsMN. Jbama> &3o is no slouc3 &3en it
comes to <ivinin- & 3ere t3e $olitical &in<s are blo&in-> must 3ave notice< t3e c3an-e in moo<
after too 3ot summers> urricane San<y> an< t3e s$ate of &il<fires in Colora<o an< else&3ere
3ave s3o&n Americans t3at t3e &olf of climate c3an-e is alrea<y 3o&lin- at our <oor.
3.C ,xtensions: A>t - ?5 @0in -urnA 372
-!ey say t!at t!e )lan is )o)ular" actually increasing O&ama%s )olitical
ca)ital" &ut # # #
1$ ,conomic assistance to 0atin America is a loser for O&ama &ecause
*e)u&licans vie' t!e region as a lo' )riority and 'ill fig!t &efore maing
any deals 'it! corru)t governments# ,xtend our *O,-- evidence#
3$ -!eir s)ecific )lan 'ill actually !urt O&ama%s )olitical ca)ital#
B6nsert 4lan-S)ecific 0inC
1$ *e)u&licans 'ill not com)romise on aid to 0atin America &ecause t!ey
t!in t!e (#S# s!ould focus on t!e Middle ,ast#
+A*+OSA" 13
(6ubens> former ambassa<or of 7raEil to t3e =nite< StatesA #43at 4ill JbamaMs Secon< Term
Mean for Batin AmericaR' 11/D.> 3tt$://&&&.t3e<ialo-ue.or-/$a-e.cfmR
$a-e0,b*2X$ub0,b*1*5)
N0n 3is secon< term> Jbama &ill be more intereste< in loo?in- for 3is le-acy in 3istory. T3e =.S.
-overnment &ill ten< to be more $roactive an< try to increase its influence in t3e current 3ot
s$ots: :a?istan> Syria> 0ran an< else&3ere in t3e Mi<<le 2ast. T3e relations3i$ &it3 C3ina &ill
continue to be 3i-3 on t3e forei-n $olicy a-en<a. avin- in min< t3is scenario> Batin America
&ill continue to be off t3e ra<ar of =.S. <ecision ma?ers: t3e re-ion &ill remain a lo& $riority for
4as3in-ton. ,es$ite t3is fact> t3e reaction of t3e Batin American lea<ers an< citiEens to
JbamaMs re!election 3as been very $ositive. T3e role of Batinos in t3e election &as im$ortant
an< in some $laces crucial. 0n terms of $olicy c3an-es on issues suc3 as immi-ration> <ru-s an<
Cuba> Jbama &ill continue to face stron- o$$osition from t3e 6e$ublican :arty but 0 &oul< not
be sur$rise< if ne& i<eas coul< be a<vance< by t3e a<ministration es$ecially in relation to
immi-ration an< Cuba.N
3.C ,xtensions: A>t - ?2 @4olitical Ca)ital is a Myt!A 378
-!ey say t!at )olitical ca)ital is a myt!" &ut # # #
1$ -!eir evidence doesn%t !ave a clear 'arrant# 4olitical ca)ital 'ors
&ecause 4residents are a&le to use favors and leverage to convince
)oliticians to side 'it! t!em" &ut only if t!ey a))ear strong# Our uniEueness
evidence )roves t!at O&ama !as t!e strengt! to )ull some )oliticians onto
!is side" &ut only if !e avoids any distracting )olicy &attles in t!e s!ort-
term#
3$ 4assing ne' )olicies reEuires )olitical ca)ital t!at trades off 'it! ot!er
)olicies#
S,6D,.=,0D" <4
(Marc> Associate :rofessor at 1lori<a State =niversity Colle-e of Ba&A 0o&a Ba& 6evie&>
Jctober)
T3e cumbersome $rocess of enactin- le-islation interferes &it3 t3e :resi<entMs ability to -et 3is
le-islative a-en<a t3rou-3 Con-ress muc3 as it 3in<ers <irect con-ressional control of a-ency
$olicy!settin-. A :resi<ent 3as a limite< amount of $olitical ca$ital 3e can use t o $ress for a
le-islative a-en<a> an< $recious little time to -et 3is a-en<a enacte<. T3ese constraints $revent
t3e :resi<ent from mars3allin- t3rou-3 Con-ress all but a 3an<ful of statutory $rovisions
reflectin- 3is $olicy vision.

1$ O&ama needs all !is )olitical ca)ital to get t!e rules c!anges t!roug!" or
Congress 'ill dilute t!e c!anges do'n to not!ing#
=A00O." 11
(7ran<on> recent -ra< stu<ent at CS=B7 &it3 a 7A in istory from 1or<3am =niversityA
#Jbama 0s Movin- A3ea< Jn Climate K 4it3 Jr 4it3out Con-ressM el$ '> 8/2;>
3tt$://&&&.$olicymic.com/articles/5182*/obama!is!movin-!a3ea<!on!climate!&it3!or!
&it3out!con-ress!3el$)
2xecutive $o&ers are one &ay to limit t3e $roblem> but usin- t3em coul< ma?e it a$$ear as if
t3e $resi<ent is reac3in- for more $o&er. Jbama cannot tell Con-ress &3at to <o> but 3e coul<
or<er t3e ,e$artments of 2ner-y an< t3e 0nterior an< t3e 2:A to be-in cuttin- $ollution an<
$re$are for a future in &3ic3 climate c3an-e &ill affect all of us. Bea<ers3i$ is a reGuirement if
Jbama is to ma?e climate c3an-e a serious $riority. 0t alrea<y 3as become a $riority as Jbama
brou-3t it u$ often in 3is State of t3e =nion a<<ress. 43at t3e $resi<ent cannot <o no& is leave
t3e issue solely in t3e 3an<s of Con-ress> &3ic3 &ill li?ely result in a &atere<!<o&n bill at best
or not3in- at &orst.
3.C ,xtensions: A>t - ?8 @*ules Do .ot ;o =ar ,noug!A B1>3C
379
-!ey say t!at O&ama%s climate regulations are too )rotective of &usinesses
t!at )ollute" &ut # # #
1$ -!eir evidence isn%t com)arative# Our evidence says t!at 47N of
green!ouse gas emissions in t!e (#S# come from )o'er )lants" '!ic!
O&ama%s rules directly address#
3$ (#S# )olicy is ey to addressing glo&al climate c!ange#
=6,0D" 11
43y is =.S. lea<ers3i$ so im$ortantR 1irst> t3e =nite< States 3as t3e necessary s?ills in science
an< tec3nolo-y> t3e tra<ition of innovation> an< t3e mature ca$ital mar?ets to bol<ly seiEe
o$$ortunities. 7uil<in- t3e ener-y system of t3e 21st century is $er3a$s t3e -reatest business
o$$ortunity of t3e era. 0t &ill involve a &i<e ran-e of tec3nolo-ies t3at emit little or no carbon
<ioxi<e> &it3 -reatly increase< ener-y efficiency in ve3icles> buil<in-s> an< eGui$ment. Secon<>
t3e =.S. is t3e only nation t3at can truly focus t3e &orl<Ms attention on t3e climate $roblem.
43en t3e =.S. 3an-s bac?> it is easy for ot3er countries to Guestion -oals or -et tan-le< in
internal $olitics. =.S. lea<ers3i$ is critical in su$erc3ar-in- t3e international effor t. To<ay is t3e
<ay to start.
3.C ,xtensions: A>t - ?8 @*ules Do .ot ;o =ar ,noug!A B3>3C
37<
1$ ,ven if t!e rules don%t com)letely sto) 'arming" slo'ing it do'n gives us
time to ada)t to a !otter )lanet
+A(M" ,- A0" 13
(Set3> 6esearc3 on 2nvironmental ,ecisions at Columbia =niversityA C3ris Carmos?y> $rofessor
of 9eo-ra$3y at :enn State =niversityA @acob aGG!Misra> Meteorolo-y an< Astrobiolo-y
6esearc3 CenterA NClimate C3an-e: 2vi<ence of uman Causes an< Ar-uments for 2missions
6e<uction>N @une> Science an< 2n-ineerin- 2t3ics 1.(2))
0n -eneral> &3at is of im$ortance is not only 3o& muc3 t3e sea level rises> but also 3o& fast t3is
rise occurs> because a ra$i< rise -ives 3umans an< ecosystems less time to a<a$t to t3e c3an-e.
T3ere is $resently muc3 concern t3at an abru$t ice s3eet colla$se coul< cause a ra$i< sea level
rise. T3e 4A0S [West Antarctic !ce S'eet] is $articularly $rone to abru$t colla$se because it
rests on -roun< t3at lies belo& sea level. 0f t3e surroun<in- oceans &arm enou-3> t3en 4A0S
coul< ra$i<ly <isinte-rate. Mean&3ile> t3e Antarctic :eninsula> 3ome to t3e nort3ernmost
frin-es of 4A0S> is un<er-oin- $er3a$s t3e lar-est increase in tem$erature of any location on
t3e $lanet (Cin- et al. 2DD2A Turner et al. 2DD5)> an< t3ere are alrea<y some &arnin- si-ns t3at
a 4A0S colla$se coul< be in $ro-ress. * T3us> abru$t 4A0S colla$se is a maIor cause for
concern. o&ever> it is not ?no&n if or &3en suc3 a colla$se is li?ely to occur.
4$ -!e rules create )olicy sta&ility t!at 'on%t &e reversi&le after O&ama
leaves office#
.A-6O.A0 MO(*.A0" 11
A 6e$ublican $resi<ent coul< more easily si<etrac? an uncom$lete< rule (as 9eor-e 4. 7us3 <i<
&it3 7ill Clinton5s unfinis3e< &or? on mercury $ollution). 7ut if Jbama finis3es t3e 2:A
re-ulation> 3is successor &oul< nee< a formal rulema?in- to un<o itKno easy tas?. A 9J:
$resi<ent mi-3t fin< it tou-3 even to sto$ le-ally <efen<in- a com$lete< re-ulation> because
blue states an< environmentalists &oul< intervene to <efen< it> notes %atural 6esources
,efense Council Climate ,irector ,aniel Bas3of. Most im$ortant> Bas3of says> once t3e rule is
<one> utilities &ill ma?e investments base< on it t3at #create a momentum t3at [ becomes
increasin-ly <ifficult' to reverse. As &it3 3ealt3 care> Jbama5s best c3ance of ensurin- t3at 3is
climate $riorities outlast 3im is to move Guic?ly to create facts on t3e -roun<.
3.C ,xtensions: A>t - ?9 @/inners /inA 317
-!ey say t!at @'inner%s 'in"A meaning t!at t!e victory of t!e )lan &eing
)assed 'ill lead to a greater c!ance t!at O&ama 'ill get climate regulations
)assed# +ut t!is isn%t true#
1$ -!e )lan is not a 'in for O&ama# Our lin evidence )roves t!at 0atin
American aid is seen as 'asteful and angers *e)u&licans" '!o are more
liely to &aclas! on ot!er issues t!an to s'itc! sides and su))ort a ne'
regulation#
3$ 6f t!e )lan is un)o)ular" t!en 'inners end u) losing# Healt! care reform
)roves t!at )assing an un)o)ular item colla)ses t!e 4resident%s &roader
agenda#
H6*SCH" 11
(Mic3ael> c3ief corres$on<ent for %ational @ournalA #T3ere5s %o Suc3 T3in- as :olitical
Ca$ital'> 5/*D> 3tt$://&&&.nationalIournal.com/ma-aEine/t3ere!s!no!suc3!t3in-!as!$olitical!
ca$ital!2D1*D2D;)
:resi<ents are limite< in &3at t3ey can <o by time an< attention s$an> of course> Iust as muc3 as
t3ey are by electoral balances in t3e ouse an< Senate. 7ut t3is> too> 3as not3in- to <o &it3
$olitical ca$ital. Anot3er &ell!&orn meme of recent years &as t3at Jbama use< u$ too muc3
$olitical ca$ital $assin- t3e 3ealt3 care la& in 3is first term. 7ut t3e real $roblem &as t3at t3e
$lan &as un$o$ular> t3e economy &as ba<> an< t3e $resi<ent <i<n5t realiEe t3at t3e national
moo< (yes> a-ain> t3e national moo<) &as at a ti$$in- $oint a-ainst bi-!-overnment
intervention> &it3 t3e tea!$arty revolt about to burst on t3e scene. 1or Americans in 2DDL an<
2D1DK3aunte< by too many roun<s of layoffs> a$$alle< by t3e 4all Street bailout> a-3ast at t3e
amount of fe<eral s$en<in- t3at never seeme< to fin< its &ay into t3eir $oc?etsK-overnment!
im$ose< 3ealt3 care covera-e &as sim$ly an intervention too far. So &as t3e i<ea of anot3er
economic stimulus. Cue t3e tea $arty an< &3at ensue<: t&o titanic fi-3ts over t3e <ebt ceilin-.
Jbama> li?e 7us3> 3a< settle< on $us3in- an issue t3at &as out of sync &it3 t3e country5s moo<.
=nli?e 7us3> Jbama <i< ultimately -et 3is i<ea $asse<. 7ut t3e bi--er $olitical $roblem &it3
3ealt3 care reform &as t3at it <istracte< t3e -overnment5s attention from ot3er issues t3at
$eo$le care< about more ur-ently> suc3 as t3e nee< to Ium$!start t3e economy an< financial
reform. +arious con-ressional staffers tol< me at t3e time t3at t3eir bosses <i<n5t really 3ave t3e
time to un<erstan< 3o& t3e 4all Street lobby &as ri<<lin- t3e ,o<<!1ran? financial!reform
le-islation &it3 loo$3oles. ealt3 care &as suc?in- all t3e oxy-en out of t3e room> t3e ai<es
sai<.
3.C ,xtensions: A>t - ?< @O&ama /on%t 4us!A 311
-!ey say t!at O&ama is not dedicating )olitical ca)ital to climate
regulations no'" &ut # # #
1$ -!eir evidence is from an unEualified source com)laining a&out a lac of
on-going consultations 'it! Congress# O&ama%s maIor s)eec! on climate
c!ange is a sign of !is commitment#
3$ O&ama is )utting !is )olitical ca)ital &e!ind ne' regulations#
;(A*D6A." 11
(#Jbama an< climate c3an-e: fres3 air' 8/25>
3tt$://&&&.-uar<ian.co.u?/commentisfree/2D1*/Iun/25/obama!climate!c3an-e)
T3ere is no <oubtin- t3at> for to<ay> Mr Jbama is not only levera-in- t3e $o&er of 3is office. e
is also investin- 3is $olitical ca$ital into t3e cause of cuttin- -reen3ouse -as emissions. T3is an<
immi-ration &ill be t3e <efinin- <omestic reforms of 3is secon< term. %o cause coul< better
merit t3is effort. 4it3 t3e =S an< C3ina> t3e &orl<Ms bi--est emitters> ma?in- tan-ible efforts>
no bi--er si-nal coul< no& be sent to t3e rest of t3e &orl<.

4lan- S )ecific 0in: Mexico 313
1$ *e)u&lican Congress o))oses moving to more innovative &order )olicing
strategies in )reference for current @loc u) t!e drug dealersA a))roac!
S,,05, A.D =6.50,A" 11
As :resi<ent :eHa %ieto im$lements 3is security strate-y> t3e 11*t3 Con-ress may examine 3o&
t3e Mexican -overnment5s $riorities ali-n &it3 =.S. interests. Con-ressional a$$roval &ill be
nee<e< s3oul< t3e State ,e$artment see? to re$ro-ram some of t3e S.DD million alrea<y in t3e
$i$eline for MQri<a> or s3ift ne& fun<in- to better ali-n &it3 Mexico5s ne& $riorities. An<>
s3oul< conflicts occur bet&een Mexican an< =.S. $riorities> Con-ress may c3oose to &ei-3 in on
3o& t3ose conflicts s3oul< be resolve<. 1or exam$le> :resi<ent :eHa %ieto 3as sai< t3at t3e
success of 3is strate-y &ill be measure< in re<uctions in 3omici<es an< ot3er crimes> rat3er
t3an in <ru-s seiEe< or ?in-$ins arreste<. T3is s3ift coul< $otentially create some tension &it3
=.S. efforts to combat Mexico5s transnational criminal or-aniEations. Any move by t3e :eHa
%ieto -overnment to ne-otiate &it3 criminal -rou$s> as t3e Salva<oran -overnment 3as <one>
an</or le-aliEe certain <ru-s &oul< li?ely $rom$t con-ressional concerns.
4lan- S )ecific 0in: FeneGuelan Democracy 311
1$ House *e)u&licans are strongly o))osed to any legislation !el)ing
FeneGuela#
/O0A" 17
(A<am 0saacson> 4as3in-ton Jffice on Batin America>#T3e ouse 6e$ublicans an< Batin
America' 11/D*> 3tt$://&&&.&ola.or-/t3eZ3ouseZre$ublicansZan<ZlatinZamerica)
avin- maIority control of a c3amber of Con-ress means 3avin- over&3elmin- control of t3at
c3amber5s a-en<a. 0n t3e ouse> t3e 6e$ublican :arty lea<ers3i$ &ill <eci<e &3at le-islation
-ets <ebate< an< vote< on t3e floor (in $lenary). 0t -ets to &rite t3e first <raft of every bu<-et
bill> startin- next year &it3 t3ose for 2D12. An< t3ey -et t3e c3airmans3i$s of all committees>
&3ic3 3ol< 3earin-s> <raft an< a$$rove le-islation. Be-islation a$$rove< by t3e ouse must also
$ass t3e ,emocratic!controlle< Senate. T3e t&o 3ouses must t3en reconcile <ifferences in t3e
le-islation> &3ic3 may $rove to be very <ifficult. T3en> bills must ultimately be si-ne< into la&
by ,emocratic :resi<ent 7arac? Jbama> &3o coul< refuse to <o so if 3e obIects stron-ly to
$rovisions t3at come out of t3e 6e$ublican ouse5s version. 0n -eneral> t3e ne& 6e$ublican
ouse maIority favors: A tou-3er stance to&ar< leftist -overnments> es$ecially Cuba> +eneEuela>
%icara-ua an< 7olivia. Be-islative efforts to soften t3e Cuba tra<e embar-o or travel ban &ill
face 3u-e obstacles. 2x$ect more resolutions> le-islative lan-ua-e an< 3earin-s criticiEin-
3uman ri-3ts abuses> evi<ence of <emocratic &ea?enin-> ties to 0ran an< ot3er non!<emocratic
re-imes> or increase< narco!traffic?in- activity in +eneEuela or 7olivia.

4lan- S )ecific 0in: Cu&an ,t!anol B1>1C 314
1$ Corn-&ased et!anol !as extremely strong )olitical su))ort
S4,CH-" 13
,ue to a number of circumstances> some of t3em coinci<ental> t3e states &it3 t3e most to -ain
from fe<eral $olicies su$$ortin- corn!base< et3anol 3ave in recent years been some of t3e most
$olitically influential states. 0o&a5s <is$ro$ortionate $olitical influence as t3e 3ome of t3e
country5s first $resi<ential nominatin- contest is a notorious i<iosyncrasy of t3e =.S. $olitical
$rocess> *1 but t3is is far from t3e only $olitical Guir? t3at 3as benefitte< t3e <omestic et3anol
in<ustry. 0n t3e t&enty!year $erio< bet&een 1L.5 an< 2DD5 > t3e Senate MaIority or Minority
Bea<er of eit3er t3e 6e$ublican or ,emocratic $arties &as from t3e Mi<&est. *2 0n t3e ei-3t!
year $erio< bet&een 1LLL an< 2DD;> t3e S$ea?er of t3e ouse ** &as from 0llinois> t3e number
t&o state for corn $ro<uction. A<<itionally> <urin- t3e six!year $erio< from 1L.L an< 1LL5> t3e
ouse ,emocratic Bea<er */ not only re$resente< Missouri> a to$ ten corn $ro<ucer state> *5
but also re$resente< t3e con-ressional <istrict containin- t3e 3ea<Guarters for Monsanto> a
maIor -lobal a-ricultural cor$oration 3eavily involve< in =.S. corn $ro<uction. *8 T3us> in t3e
t&o!<eca<e $erio< bet&een t3e mi<!1L.Ds an< mi<!2DDDs> t3e =.S. corn in<ustry 3a< a #$erfect
storm' of circumstances -ivin- it $olitical influence an< t3e o$$ortunity to favorably s3a$e =.S.
a-ricultural $olicy.
3$ 6ncreasing et!anol im)orts 'ill crus! t!e economies of ey Mid'est
states#
S4,CH-" 13
=nless Con-ress raises t3e 61S by a sufficient <e-ree to absorb all <omestic et3anol $ro<uction
on to$ of t3ese ne& im$orts> t3e increase in suc3 im$orts &oul< li?ely <ama-e t3e <omestic
et3anol in<ustry. #43atever t3e level or ty$e of biofuel> increase< im$orts (3ol<in- ot3er factors
constant) &oul< re<uce t3e Guantity of <omestically $ro<uce< biofuels> &3ic3 &oul< re<uce t3e
<eman< for biofuel fee<stoc?s.' 1*. 7ecause very little et3anol is currently im$orte< into t3e
=nite< States> la& an< $olicy c3an-es t3at successfully fostere< t3e <evelo$ment of a Cuban
su-arcane!base< et3anol in<ustry &oul< 3ave a si-nificant economic im$act on t3e =nite<
States. Suc3 a c3an-e &oul< 3ave t3e lar-est economic effect on t&o re-ions: t3e Mi<&est>
&3ic3 is currently t3e $rimary source of et3anol $ro<uction in t3e =nite< States> an< t3e
Sout3east> es$ecially 1lori<a. T3is :art of t3e Article &ill <iscuss t3e li?ely economic effects of
suc3 $olicy c3an-es first on t3e Mi<&est> t3en on 1lori<a> t3en on t3e =nite< States -enerally.
4lan-S)ecific 0in: Cu&an ,t!anol B3>1C 315
1$ 6ncentives for sugar-&ased et!anol 'ill &e given very close )olitical
scrutiny &y *e)u&licans#
S4,CH-" 13
T3e 61S calle< for $ro<uction of 8.5 million -allons of cellulosic et3anol in 2D1D (lo&ere< from
an earlier tar-et of 1DD million -allons). 12L T3at tar-et &as not met> an< no cellulosic et3anol
&as blen<e< into -asoline in t3e secon< 3alf of t3at year. 1*D Cellulosic et3anol $ro<uction 3as
slo&ly be-un to <evelo$ in t3e =nite< States> &it3 t3e first commercial!scale cellulosic et3anol
$lant un<er construction as of t3e en< of 2D12 an< sc3e<ule< to be-in o$erations in 2D1*. 1*1
o&ever> t3e furt3er -ro&t3 of cellulosic et3anol $ro<uction may be slo&e< by $olitical
<evelo$ments in t3e =nite< States. 1*2 T3e first commercial refinery of t3is ty$e &as ma<e
$ossible by a S1D5 million fe<eral loan -uarantee from t3e ,e$artment of 2ner-y. 1** ,es$ite
:resi<ent Jbama5s re!election> 3is a<ministration may be reluctant to ma?e furt3er suc3
-uarantees in t3e &a?e of t3e Solyn<ra scan<al 1*/ an< -reater scrutiny of ,e$artment of
2ner-y actions by 6e$ublicans in t3e ouse of 6e$resentatives. 1*5
4$ -!e corn industry is very )olitically )o'erful and su))orts exclusively
domestic et!anol )roduction#
S4,CH-" 13
T3e <e-ree to &3ic3 t3e fe<eral -overnment <eci<e< to su$$ort t3e cornbase< et3anol in<ustry
may 3ave reflecte< more on t3e in<ustry5s ability to influence national $olitics t3an on its merits
as an en<eavor. #T3e emer-ence of corn as t3e $rimary fee<stoc? for =.S. et3anol is t3e $ro<uct
of its abun<ance an< $olitical $ro&ess.' T3e <omestic et3anol in<ustry 3as very stron- ties to
one re-ion of t3e =nite< States> t3e Mi<&est. More t3an ei-3ty!five $ercent of =.S. et3anol bio!
refineries are in t3e t&elve states of t3e Mi<&est> t3e $remier corn -ro&in- re-ion of t3e =nite<
States. Accor<in- to t3e most recent <ata from t3e =.S. 2ner-y 0nformation A<ministration>
t3ere are 1;2 et3anol $lants in t3e Mi<&est an< Iust t&enty!t&o $lants in all ot3er re-ions of t3e
=nite< States combine<. =.S. corn $ro<uction is concentrate< in t3e Mi<&est> &it3 Iust 0o&a
an< 0llinois to-et3er $rovi<in- about one t3ir< of t3e annual =nite< States cro$.
4lan- S )ecific 0in: Cu&an ,t!anol B1>1C 312
5$ Congress 'ill &itterly o))ose any c!ange in t!e em&argo on trade 'it!
Cu&a#
.,/ :O*5 -6M,S" 13
(,amien CaveA #2asin- of 6estraints in Cuba 6ene&s ,ebate on =.S. 2mbar-o'> 11/1L>
3tt$://&&&.nytimes.com/2D12/11/2D/&orl</americas/c3an-es!in!cuba!create!su$$ort!for!
easin-!embar-o.3tmlR$a-e&ante<ball"3())
0n 4as3in-ton> Mr. 9ross is seen as t3e main im$e<iment to an easin- of t3e embar-o> but
t3ere are also limits to &3at t3e $resi<ent coul< <o &it3out Con-ressional action. T3e 1LL2
Cuban ,emocracy Act con<itione< t3e &aivin- of sanctions on t3e intro<uction of <emocratic
c3an-es insi<e Cuba. T3e 1LL8 elms!7urton Act also reGuires t3at t3e embar-o remain until
Cuba 3as a transitional or <emocratically electe< -overnment. Jbama a<ministration officials
say t3ey 3ave not -iven u$> an< coul< move if t3e $resi<ent <eci<es to act on 3is o&n. Jfficials
say t3at un<er t3e Treasury ,e$artment5s licensin- an< re-ulation!&ritin- aut3ority> t3ere is
room for si-nificant mo<ification. 1ollo&in- t3e le-al lo-ic of Mr. Jbama5s c3an-es in 2DDL>
furt3er ex$ansions in travel are $ossible alon- &it3 ne& allo&ances for investment or im$orts
an< ex$orts> es$ecially if narro&ly a$$lie< to Cuban businesses. 2ven t3ese a<Iustments K
&3ic3 coul< also inclu<e travel for all Americans an< looser rules for s3i$s en-a-e< in tra<e &it3
Cuba> accor<in- to a le-al analysis commissione< by t3e Cuba Stu<y 9rou$ K &oul< $robably
mean a fierce $olitical fi-3t. T3e 3an<ful of Cuban!Americans in Con-ress for &3om t3e
embar-o is sacre< o$$ose looser rules. 43en as?e< about Cuban entre$reneurs &3o are see?in-
more American su$$ort> 6e$resentative 0leana 6os!Be3tinen> t3e 1lori<a 6e$ublican &3o is
c3air&oman of t3e ouse 1orei-n 6elations Committee> $ro$ose< an even ti-3ter embar-o.
4olitics Disadvantage Affirmative 318
2AC 1rontline: :olitics ,isa<vanta-e..........................................................................................21.
Bin? Turn: Batin America (1/2)................................................................................................... 22/
:lan!s$ecific Bin? Turn: Cuban 2t3anol (1/2)............................................................................228
CDL Core Files 2013/14 2/C Fro!tli!e
/FF
3AC =rontline: 4olitics Disadvantage B1> 2 C 319
1$ .on-(niEue: O&ama doesn%t !ave t!e )olitical 'ill or enoug! time to )ass
long-lasting climate regulations#
;(A*D6A." 11
$romises)
Jbama -ave &3at mi-3t turn out to be 3is most substantive> not to mention controversial>
a<<ress on climate c3an-e since 3e too? office over four years a-o. 0 say mi-3t turn out to be>
because t3e <evil> as t3ey say> is in t3e <etails> an< t3e <etails are not yet in. 0tMs not clear> for
exam$le> 3o& muc3 of 3is <iminis3in- stoc? of N$olitical ca$italN Jbama &ill be &illin- to s$en<
on a--ressively $us3in- for t3e climate relief $ac?a-e t3at 3e outline< to<ay. 0t is also not clear
&3et3er t3e t3ree years $lus t3at remain in 3is soon!to!be lame <uc? $resi<ency &ill be enou-3
time to accom$lis3 3is ambitious -oals> still less insure t3at t3ey &onMt be reverse< by t3e next
resi<ent of t3e 43ite ouse.

3$ .o 0in: O&ama%s ne' rules do not go t!roug! Congress" so t!ere is no
ris of a fig!t over t!e )lan !aving any s)illover effect# ,ven if t!e )lan
causes massive controversy" t!ere is no vote over climate regulations for
Congress to &aclas! on#
/FF
3AC =rontline: 4olitics Disadvantage B3>2C 31<
1$ .o im)act: O&ama%s ne' rules do not c!ange t!e status Euo on climate
c!ange#
/A*A" 11
(Mic3ael> la& $rofessor at Stanfor< =niversityA #See?in- More :resi<ential Action> Bess
63etoric> on 4armin-'> 8/28> 3tt$://<oteart3.blo-s.nytimes.com/2D1*/D8/28/see?in-!more!
obam!action!less!r3etoric!on!&armin-/)
At t3is $oint> five years in> Jbama s3oul< also be Iu<-e< by 3is actions (ti-3tene< car emission
stan<ar<sA <elaye< $o&er $lant rules) rat3er t3an 3is &or<s on climate c3an-e. T3is is not
necessarily to criticiEe 3im> only to reco-niEe t3at &or<s are c3ea$ an< t3e $resi<ent 3as limite<
$olitical ca$ital to s$en< on a variety of im$ortant $riorities. Sixty $ercent of =.S. emissions
come from t&o sectors K trans$ortation an< t3e $o&er sector. 05ll focus on t3ese. Jn
trans$ortation> t3e $resi<ent ri-3tly claims cre<it for acce$tin- t3e California $ro$osals on
carbon $ollution stan<ar<s for cars> ma?in- t3em nation&i<e an< ex$an<in- t3em. 7ut t3ese
moves occurre< &3en t3e businesses li?ely to be most stron-ly o$$ose< &ere $artly o&ne< by
t3e American tax$ayer. 7ut 3is ne& $lan mostly tal?s about biofuels F about &3ic3 <on5t -et me
starte< (see 3ere> 3ere an< 3ere). 6e-ar<in- t3e trans$ort sector> t3e most 3o$eful ne&
tec3nolo-ies &e 3ave involve electrification> not biofuels. T3e $resi<ent <oesn5t tal? about t3at>
$er3a$s for -oo< reason but $er3a$s not. T3e trut3 is t3at if electric cars ta?e off> a ve3icle
$ollution $roblem Iust turns into a $o&er $lant $ollution $roblem. So on to $o&er $lants> &3ere
because of a series of court <ecisions> an< t3e text of t3e Clean Air Act> t3e $resi<ent 3as t3e
$ossibility of ma?in- bi- c3an-es. ere> t3e $lan says not3in- concrete beyon< settin- some
<ea<lines. c T3is is sort of li?e busy stu<ents comin- into my office> 3avin- blo&n a <ea<line for
an assi-nment> sayin- t3at t3is time is <ifferent an< t3ey5ll be sure to -et it to me next &ee?. 0n
fact> t3e situation is exactly li?e t3at. T3e Jbama A<ministration> is un<er a court im$ose<
settlement to issue t3ese stan<ar<s> &3ic3 t3ey 3ave violate<A t3ey 3ave issue< an< t3en
&it3<ra&n <raft rules for ne& $o&er $lants after stron- $us3bac? from t3e $o&er sectorA an<
2:A is about to -et sue< by environmental -rou$s for violatin- t3e settlement. . . . 0nstea<> 3is
relative lac? of <irection allo&s in<ustry to rest easy &it3 t3e current situation instea< of bein-
$art of a $us3 for con-ressional action on t3is im$ortant $roblem.
4$ .on-(niEue: *e)u&licans are a&le to ill off any agenda item O&ama
)us!es#
H6*SCH" 11
ca$ital!2D1*D2D;)
%aturally> any $resi<ent 3as $ractical an< electoral limits. ,oes 3e 3ave a maIority in bot3
c3ambers of Con-ress an< a co3esive coalition be3in< 3imR Jbama 3as neit3er at $resent. An<
unless a sur-e in t3e economyKat t3e moment> still stuc?Kor some ot3er -reat victory -ives 3im
/FF
more momentum> it is inevitable t3at t3e closer Jbama -ets to t3e 2D1/ election> t3e less 3e &ill
be able to -et <one. 9oin- into t3e mi<terms> 6e$ublicans &ill increasin-ly avoi< any
concessions t3at ma?e 3im (an< t3e ,emocrats) stron-er.
/FF
3AC =rontline: 4olitics Disadvantage B1>2C 337
5$ 0in turn: -!e )lan is )o)ular and 'ill &oost O&ama%s )olitical ca)ital#
B6nsert 4lan-S)ecific 0in -urnC
2$ 4olitical ca)ital is a myt! H t!ere is no suc! t!ing as )residential
momentum#
H6*SCH" 11
ca$ital!2D1*D2D;)
T3e real $roblem is t3at t3e i<ea of $olitical ca$italKor man<ates> or momentumKis so $oorly
<efine< t3at $resi<ents an< $un<its often -et it &ron-. #:resi<ents usually over!estimate it>'
says 9eor-e 2<&ar<s> a $resi<ential sc3olar at Texas AXM =niversity. #T3e best ?in< of $olitical
ca$italKsome sense of an electoral man<ate to <o somet3in-Kis very rare. 0t almost never
3a$$ens. 0n 1L8/> maybe. An< to some <e-ree in 1L.D.' 1or t3at reason> $olitical ca$ital is a
conce$t t3at mislea<s far more t3an it enli-3tens. 0t is <istortionary. 0t conveys t3e i<ea t3at &e
?no& more t3an &e really <o about t3e ever!elusive conce$t of $olitical $o&er> an< it <iscounts
t3e &ay unforeseen events can su<<enly c3an-e everyt3in-. 0nstea<> it su--ests> erroneously>
t3at a $olitical fi-ure 3as a concrete amount of $olitical ca$ital to invest> Iust as someone mi-3t
3ave real investment ca$italKt3at a $articular lea<er can ban? 3is -ains> an< t3e siEe of 3is
account <etermines &3at 3e can <o at any -iven moment in 3istory.
/FF
8$ O&ama%s climate rules are muc! too lenient 'it! )olluting com)anies to
&e effective#
/A00 S-*,,- MO(*.A0" 11
(,arrell ,elamai<eA #Jbama5s $le<-e on climate c3an-e still ambivalentN
3tt$://&&&.mar?et&atc3.com/story/obamas!$le<-e!on!climate!c3an-e!still!ambivalent!2D1*!
D8!2;)
T3e =.S. State ,e$artment> &3ic3 &ill ma?e t3e final recommen<ation on t3e $roIect> is
re$orte<ly rea<y to acce$t t3at ar-ument> &3ic3 means t3e #net effect' of t3e $i$eline &oul< be
lo&er carbon emissions. Jt3ers ar-ue> 3o&ever> t3at trans$ort by rail &oul< $rice t3e tar san<s
oil out of t3e mar?et an< t3at reIection of t3e $i$eline &oul< curtail tar!san<s $ro<uction. 7ut
t3e 3int t3at t3e a<ministration 3as foun< a s$in to Iustify a$$roval of t3e $i$eline &as not t3e
only in<ication in t3e s$eec3 t3at t3e a<ministration is not uneGuivocally committe< to fi-3tin-
climate c3an-e. Jbama5s full!t3roate< embrace of natural -as $ro<uce< t3rou-3 3y<raulic
fracturin- as a #bri<-e' to -reater reliance on rene&able ener-ies also -ave environmentalists
$ause. #1rac?in-' 3as -iven rise to consi<erable o$$osition because of $otential &ater $ollution>
-eolo-ical <ama-e an< ot3er environmental concerns. 7ut frac?in- also $oses a serious an<
<irect ris? for climate c3an-e. Some ex$erts believe s3ale!-as $ro<uction &ill result in more
3armful -reen3ouse -as emissions t3an burnin- coal. 0n a 2D11 $a$er> a team from Cornell
=niversity <emonstrate< t3at emissions of met3ane K a muc3 more 3armful -reen3ouse -as K
<urin- $ro<uction of s3ale -as ma?e t3is unconventional -as <irtier t3an coal. #Com$are< to
coal> t3e foot$rint of s3ale -as is at least 2DY -reater an< $er3a$s more t3an t&ice as -reat on
t3e 2D!year 3oriEon>' t3e aut3ors &rite. T3is is &3y actor!<irector Mar? 6uffalo> an
environmental activist s$ea?in- on be3alf of Americans A-ainst 1rac?in-> too? Jbama to tas?
for continuin- to su$$ort frac?inas a solution for climate c3an-e. #:resi<ent Jbama <eserves
$raise for $rioritiEin- climate c3an-e>' 6uffalo sai< in a statement> #but if 3e5s serious 3e nee<s
to start by reIectin- frac?in- for oil an< -as. 1rac?in- is a <an-erous an< toxic <rillin- $rocess
t3at -reatly exacerbates climate c3an-e an< t3reatens to $ut us over t3e e<-e.' T3ere is a sim$le
mar?et!base< solution to re<uce carbon emissions an< slo& climate c3an-e: a carbon tax> or
even a ca$!an<!tra<e $ro-ram. Jbama -ave a no< to t3is $ossibility in 3is s$eec3 t3is &ee?> but
<are< not even s$ea? its name> let alone use 3is bully $ul$it to $us3 Con-ress to act. #0n my
State of t3e =nion a<<ress> 0 ur-e< Con-ress to come u$ &it3 a bi$artisan> mar?et!base<
solution to climate c3an-e>' Jbama sai<. e a<<e<> in t3at 3an<s!off> lea<in-!from!be3in< &ay
t3at 3as become 3is tra<emar?: #An< 0 still &ant to see t3at 3a$$en. 05m &illin- to &or? &it3
anyone to ma?e t3at 3a$$en.' Maybe &3en 3e5s rea<y to -ive a s$eec3 on carbon tax K after 3e5s
reIecte< t3e Ceystone :i$eline an< come out a-ainst frac?in- K maybe t3en t3ose of us
concerne< about climate c3an-e &ill ta?e 3is commitment seriously.
/FF
3AC =rontline: 4olitics Disadvantage B5> 2 C 333
9$ -urn: /inners 'in# +y )assing t!e )lan" O&ama 'ill create a victory t!at
creates )olitical momentum for ot!er victories#
H6*SCH" 11
ca$ital!2D1*D2D;)
7ut t3e abru$t emer-ence of t3e immi-ration an< -un!control issues illustrates 3o& su<<enly
s3ifts in moo< can occur an< 3o& $olitical interests can ali-n in ne& &ays Iust as su<<enly.
0n<ee<> t3e $seu<o!conce$t of $olitical ca$ital mas?s a lar-er trut3 about 4as3in-ton t3at is
?in<er-arten sim$le: Vou Iust <on5t ?no& &3at you can <o until you try. Jr as Jrnstein 3imself
once &rote years a-o> #4innin- &in s.' 0n t3eory> an< in $ractice> <e$en<in- on Jbama5s
3an<lin- of any $articular issue> even in a $olariEe< time> 3e coul< still <eliver on a lot of 3is
secon<!term -oals> <e$en<in- on 3is s?ill an< t3e brea?s. =nforeseen catalysts can a$$ear> li?e
%e&to&n. 2$i$3anies can <a&n> suc3 as &3en many 6e$ublican :arty lea<ers su<<enly &o?e
u$ in $anic to t3e 3u-e <is$arity in t3e is$anic vote. Some $olitical scientists &3o stu<y t3e
elusive calculus of 3o& to $ass le-islation an< run successful $resi<encies say t3at $olitical
ca$ital is> at best> an em$ty conce$t> an< t3at almost not3in- in t3e aca<emic literature
successfully Guantifies or even <efines it. #0t can refer to a very abstract t3in-> li?e a $resi<ent5s
$o$ularity> but t3ere5s no mec3anism t3ere. T3at ma?es it ?in< of useless>' says 6ic3ar< 7ensel>
a -overnment $rofessor at Cornell =niversity. 2ven Jrnstein conce<es t3at t3e calculus is far
more com$lex t3an t3e term su--ests. 4innin- on one issue often c3an-es t3e calculation for
t3e next issueA t3ere is never any ?no&n amount of ca$ital. #T3e i<ea 3ere is> if an issue comes
u$ &3ere t3e conventional &is<om is t3at $resi<ent is not -oin- to -et &3at 3e &ants> an< 3e
-ets it> t3en eac3 time t3at 3a$$ens> it c3an-es t3e calculus of t3e ot3er actors' Jrnstein says.
#0f t3ey t3in? 3e5s -oin- to &in> t3ey may c3an-e $ositions to -et on t3e &innin- si<e. 0t5s a
ban<&a-on effect.'
/FF
<$ .on-(niEue: O&ama%s !asn%t demonstrated a seriousness a&out climate
c!ange )olicy H it%s only tal#
+A-O. *O(;, ADFOCA-," 11
(#Jur +ie&s: Jbama $unts on climate'> 8/2.>
3tt$://&&&.iris3times.com/ne&s/&orl</us/obama!stayin-!3an<s!off!on!?ey!le-islative!
issues!1.1//;L**)
:resi<ent 7arac? Jbama5s muc3!toute< $lan to a<<ress -lobal climate c3an-e t3rou-3 a series
of executive or<ers &as meant to <emonstrate stron- lea<ers3i$ on a serious $roblem. T3e $lan
3as> instea<> only serve< to un<erscore t3e <ysfunction of a fe<eral -overnment t3at seems
unable to tac?le bi- c3allen-es &it3 t3e -ravity t3ey <eserve. Jbama unveile< a number of
executive actions to re<uce t3e -reen3ouse -ases t3at contribute to climate c3an-e> an< 3e
s$ecifically tar-ete< t3e carbon <ioxi<e emitte< by many of t3e nation5s $o&er $lants. e also
$ro$ose< ne& s$en<in- to 3el$ communities $re$are for climate c3an-e t3at is alrea<y
antici$ate<> even if ne& $ollution controls ta?e effect. T3e $ublic $olicy im$lications of climate
c3an-e mean t3at t3e $resi<ent an< Con-ress s3oul< &or? to-et3er on constructive solutions.
7ut t3e $resi<ent> seein- little 3o$e for consensus on t3e issue on Ca$itol ill> <i<n5t $ro$ose
ambitious ne& le-islation to a<<ress climate c3an-e. 0nstea<> 3e announce< executive or<ers
t3at by!$ass Con-ress K essentially <etourin- a <ebate rat3er t3an en-a-in- it. 7ut sustaine<
$ro-ress on climate c3an-e &ill eventually reGuire t3e $resi<ent an< Con-ress to &or? as
$artners> not a<versaries. Jbama5s $olicy <irectives> &3ile interestin- as $olitical t3eater>
seeme< more li?e a $3oto o$$ortunity t3an an occasion for national <ialo-ue. T3e $resi<ent5s
climate c3an-e s$eec3 <oes not a$$ear to be $art of an exten<e< fi-3t for t3e 3earts an< min<s
of t3e American $eo$le on t3is issue. 0nstea< of follo&in- u$ on 3is s$eec3 &it3 a cross!country
sales Iob> t3e $resi<ent instea< 3ea<e< overseas to Africa. T3e timin- su--ests a c3ief executive
crossin- a cam$ai-n $le<-e from 3is to!<o list before movin- on to somet3in- else.
CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 Li!?s
/FF
0in -urn: 0atin America B1>3C 334
1$ ,ven if Congress !ates t!e 4resident" *e)u&licans su))ort aid to 0atin
America &ecause t!ey are )ursuing more su))ort from 0atinos#
HA56M" 13
(:eter> member of t3e A<visor boar< an< $resi<ent emeritus of t3e 0nter!American ,ialo-ueA
#43at 4ill JbamaMs Secon< Term Mean for Batin AmericaR' 11/D.>
3tt$://&&&.t3e<ialo-ue.or-/$a-e.cfmR$a-e0,b*2X$ub0,b*1*5)
Any s$eculation about JbamaMs secon< term 3as to come mainly from 3is first!term
$erformance. T3e cam$ai-n &as about t3e can<i<ates an< t3eir bio-ra$3iesKnot about issues.
%ot3in- su--ests Con-ress &ill be more $ro<uctive. T3e ouse remains virtually unc3an-e<.
T3e Senate &ill be more <ivisive still as most remainin- mo<erate 6e$ublicans an< ,emocrats
resi-ne< or lost t3eir seats. 4e &ill ?no& soon &3et3er com$romise is $ossible &3en t3e lame!
<uc? Con-ress returns next &ee?> an< be-ins <iscussion of t3e fiscal cliff embro-lio. T3e best
-uess is t3at Con-ress &ill fin< a &ay> not to resolve t3e $roblem> but to <efer its conseGuences.
T3e election results focuse< attention on immi-ration $olicy> &3ic3 bot3 6e$ublicans an<
,emocrats may be motivate< to a<<ress. :resi<ent JbamaMs <eclare< intention to a<<ress
immi-ration &as surely reinforce< by t3e 3u-e Batino vote. Many of t3e 6e$ublicans &3o
bloc?e< $revious immi-ration initiatives &ill resist a-ain. 7ut some reco-niEe t3eir $arty may
become irrelevant unless t3ey ta?e seriously t3e Batino an< blac? constituencies t3at accounte<
for more t3an /D $ercent of JbamaMs total. =.S. immi-ration reform &oul< be a &elcome c3an-e
in most of Batin America> $articularly in Mexico> Central America an< t3e Caribbean. Jbama
may see? to $ursue furt3er o$enin-s to CubaKbut t3ese &ill be limite< unless t3e Cuban
-overnment s3o&s a &illin-ness to reci$rocate &it3 ne& 3uman ri-3ts measures or $olitical
c3an-es. ,ru- $olicy is not 3i-3 on t3e =.S. a-en<a> but t3e a$$roval in Colora<o an<
4as3in-ton of ballot initiatives to le-aliEe mariIuana use may s$ar? &i<er <iscussion on <ru-
issues. 7ut Mitt 6omney offere< t3e most si-nificant $olicy $ro$osal for Batin America> &3en
calle< for more intensive =.S. efforts to $ursue multi$lyin- economic o$$ortunities in t3e
re-ion.N
/FF
0in--urn: 0atin America B3>3C 335
3$ 0atino su))ort for t!e )lan 'ill &e )olitically decisive#
*OD,.-A0" 13
(An<res> ember of t3e A<visor boar<> $resi<ent of 6oEental X Asocia<os in Mexico City an<
senior fello& at t3e 7roo?in-s 0nstitutionA #43at 4ill JbamaMs Secon< Term Mean for Batin
AmericaR' 11/D.> 3tt$://&&&.t3e<ialo-ue.or-/$a-e.cfmR$a-e0,b*2X$ub0,b*1*5)
:resi<ent JbamaMs re!election is a &elcome <evelo$ment for Batin Americans in -eneral> an<
Mexicans in $articular. Alt3ou-3 many of JbamaMs cam$ai-n $romises in 2DD. relevant to t3e
re-ion remain unrealiEe<> t3ere is a mo<icum of 3o$e t3at as a lea<er in 3is secon< term> &it3
more $olitical ca$ital to s$en<> 3e can at least ma?e a stron-er effort to tac?le com$re3ensive
immi-ration reform an< tra<e issues critical to Batin American $ros$erity. Alt3ou-3 0 <onMt
foresee any maIor c3an-e in t3e =nite< StatesM forei-n $olicy to&ar< t3e re-ion> es$ecially as
lon- as Af-3anistan> 0ran an< t3e Mi<<le 2ast remain $riorities for 4as3in-ton> t3at may not
necessarily be a ba< t3in-. 4e often com$lain &3en 4as3in-ton $ays too muc3 attention to us>
an< eGually &3en t3ereMs less overt interest in t3e re-ion> but 0 believe t3at Jbama 3as mostly
s3o&n a muc3 more mature attitu<e to&ar< Batin America over t3e last four years t3an 3as
tra<itionally been t3e case. T3is &ill 3o$efully also be t3e case as 3is a<ministration continues
t3rou-3 2D18. :resumably> t3ere &ill continue to be a stron- focus on com$letin- on-oin- tra<e
ne-otiations> es$ecially t3e Trans!:acific :artners3i$> to o$en ne& o$$ortunities for economic
-ro&t3 an< 3o$efully a re!visitin- of %A1TA as a ?ey o$tion to ma?e %ort3 America more
com$etitive on t3e -lobal scene. Batinos $laye< a ?ey role in re!electin- Jbama> Iust as t3ey <i<
in 2DD.> an< t3e one messa-e t3at 6e$ublicans 3ave to ta?e 3ome at t3is sta-e is t3at t3e anti!
immi-rant> exclusionary $olicies voice< <urin- t3e cam$ai-n by Mitt 6omney> t3e Tea :arty an<
ot3er conservatives &ere a ?ey factor in t3eir ultimate <efeat. Many of JbamaMs liberal vie&s on
minority ri-3ts an< tolerance turne< out to be muc3 more $o$ular amon- Americans as a &3ole
t3an t3e o$$osin- 6e$ublican $ositions on t3ose same issues.N
/FF
4lan-s)ecific 0in -urn: Cu&an ,t!anol B1>3C 332
1$ -!e 3717 election c!anged t!e com)osition of t!e Congress in a 'ay t!at
undermined t!e )o'er of t!e farm lo&&y#
S4,CH-" 13
0n t3e 2D1D elections> 3o&ever> corn!base< et3anol suffere< a <ramatic reversal of its $olitical
fortunes. %eit3er t3e current Senate MaIority Bea<er nor Senate Minority Bea<er is from a
maIor (t3at is> to$ ten) corn $ro<ucin- state. 43ile t3e S$ea?er of t3e ouse is from a maIor
corn $ro<ucin- state> neit3er t3e ouse MaIority Bea<er nor Minority Bea<er is from a state
&it3 si-nificant corn $ro<uction. A<<itionally> an< $er3a$s muc3 more si-nificantly> t3e
com$osition of t3e ouse A-riculture Committee c3an-e< in a number of &ays &it3 t3e 2D1D
election. 0n t3e 2D1D election> t3e ,emocratic :arty narro&ly retaine< control of t3e =.S. Senate>
&3ile t3e 6e$ublican :arty too? control of t3e =.S. ouse of 6e$resentatives. 43ile
con-ressional $arty s3ifts are a routine occurrence in American $olitics> t3e 2D1D elections &ere
notable in t&o res$ects. T3ey brou-3t a lar-e number of fres3men to t3e ouse of
6e$resentatives> as &ell as a lar-e number of re$resentatives &3o cam$ai-ne< on $latforms
ex$licitly o$$osin- -overnment s$en<in- an< -overnment action in -eneral. T3is s3ift in t3e
lar-er ouse of 6e$resentatives &as reflecte< in t3e c3an-e in com$osition of t3e ouse
A-riculture Committee. alf of t3e members of t3e current committee K sixteen of t3e
6e$ublicans an< seven of t3e ,emocrats K &ere ne& to t3e committee. C3aracteriEe< by a
<esire to cut -overnment s$en<in- &3erever $ossible> t3ese ne& committee members $us3e<
for re<uctions in all forms of fe<eral a-ricultural subsi<ies in <ebates over t3e 2D12 1arm 7ill.
T3eir o$$osition $revente< t3e ouse of 6e$resentatives from $assin- a final version of t3e
1arm 7ill before t3e en< of 2D12. 7ecause of t3e =.S. bu<-et <eficit> it is certain t3at t3e next
1arm 7ill K a final version of &3ic3 3a< not been a-ree< to by Con-ress as of @anuary 2D1* K
&ill cut fe<eral a-ricultural s$en<in-. T3e unans&ere< Guestions are &3ic3 $ro-rams &ill be
cut> an< by 3o& muc3.
/FF
4lan-s)ecific 0in -urn: Cu&an ,t!anol B3>3C 338
3$ -!e farm lo&&y su))orts ending t!e em&argo &ecause it o)ens u) an
agriculture trade maret#
CH*6S-6A. SC6,.C, MO.6-O*" <
(@ennifer 9erE!2scan<on> former $rofessor of $olitical science base< in Atlanta> #2n< t3e =S!
Cuba embar-o: 0tMs a &in!&in>' 1D/DL> 3tt$://&&&.csmonitor.com/2DD./1DDL/$DLsD2!
coo$.3tml)
7rin-in- an en< to t3e <eca<es!ol< =S!Cuba embar-o is no lon-er Iust a noble but 3o$eless
i<ea. Con<itions 3ave c3an-e< to t3e $oint &3ere restorin- normal economic ties &oul< ma?e
for smart $olicy F an< savvy $olitics. 2ven as Cubans recover from 3urricanes 9ustav an< 0?e>
t3eir <esire to en< t3e embar-o remains stron-. 0n reIectin- a mo<est initial offer of =S ai< on
Se$t. /> Cuban :resi<ent 6ail Castro calle< instea< for t3e &3ole enc3ila<a of normaliEe<
economic relations. T3e =nite< States is eGually resolute in its nearly 5D!year!ol< o$$osition to
t3e socialist <ictators3i$. As sim$ly $ut by t3e CATJ 0nstitute> 4as3in-tonMs c3ief rationale for
t3e embar-o 3as been to Ncom$el a <emocratic transformationN in Cuba. Vet common -roun<
exists. 0n broa< terms> bot3 si<es &ant national security an< economic o$$ortunity. %o& is t3e
time to $ursue t3ose s3are< interests. Mutually beneficial o$$ortunities in t3ree areas F
a-ricultural tra<e> ener-y <evelo$ment> an< immi-ration F coul< $rovi<e t3e foun<ation for a
$ostembar-o relations3i$. 1or years> =S farmers 3ave lobbie< Con-ress F only some&3at
successfully F to o$en Cuban mar?ets> &3ic3 are lucrative an< feature lo& trans$ortation costs.
7ot3 si<es coul< realiEe benefits from -reater liberaliEation: relaxe< $ayment o$tions for cas3!
stra$$e< Cuba an< t3e en< of licenses an< Guotas for =S farmers. ,es$ite t3e embar-o> t3e =S
is CubaMs lar-est su$$lier of foo< an< its sixt3!lar-est tra<in- $artner.
Corru8tio! Disad$a!tage 1/1
0#1
Corru)tion Disadvantage .egative 339
1%C S3ell: Corru$tion ,isa<vanta-e...........................................................................................22L
2%C 2xtensions: A/t F "1 #%o Bin?' (1/2)..................................................................................2*2
2%C 2xtensions: A/t F "2 #Many Causes of Corru$tion'...........................................................2*/
2%C 2xtensions: A/t F "* #Case Jut&ei-3s'..............................................................................2*5
2%C 2xtensions: A/t F "/ #Corru$tion is i-3'.........................................................................2*8
2%C 2xtensions: A/t F "5 #Ai< Solves Corru$tion' (1/2)...........................................................2*;
2%C 2xtensions: A/t F "8 #2vi<ence 0sn5t Causal' ....................................................................2*L
2%C 2xtensions: A/t F "; #7usinesses Cause Corru$tion' (1/2)...............................................2/D
2%C 2xtensions: A/t F ". #:lan Solves Corru$tion' (1/2).........................................................2/2
Country!s$ecific =niGueness: Mexico (1/2)................................................................................2//
Country!s$ecific =niGueness: +eneEuela....................................................................................2/8
Country!s$ecific =niGueness: Cuba............................................................................................2/;
A/t: #T3e :lan <oesn5t -ive money'............................................................................................2/.
T2S0S: =nfortunately> <es$ite our -oo< intentions> &3at 3a$$ens &3en t3e
=.S. sen<s forei-n assistance to Batin American countries is t3at it enric3es
-overnment officials an< never -ets use< in t3e &ay t3at it &as <esi-ne< to be
use<. =.S. forei-n assistance actually ex$an<s -overnmental corru$tion
because it creates t3e $erce$tion amon- forei-n -overnments t3at t3e =.S. is
li?e an ATM mac3ine> lea<in- officials to become more corru$t. Corru$tion
un<ermines economic an< $olitical stability an< $revents solvency.
0#1
1.C S!ell: Corru)tion Disadvantage 33<
A$ (niEueness: Des)ite difficulties" 0atin American countries are maing
)rogress to reduce corru)tion#
6.S6D, CO(.S,0" 13
(Alanna 7yrne> #,es$ite some $ro-ress> corru$tion still a &i<es$rea< concern in Batin America>'
8/1.> 3tt$://&&&.insi<ecounsel.com/2D12/D8/1./<es$ite!some!$ro-ress!corru$tion!still!a!
&i<es$rea)
0f recent ne&s re$orts are any in<ication> bribery> corru$tion an< frau< are still -lobal concerns.
2vi<ently> Batin America is no exce$tion> accor<in- to t3e recently!release< Batin America
Corru$tion Survey from Miller X C3evalier an< Matteson 2llis. Jf t3e /*L res$on<ents surveye<
across t3e =.S. an< Batin America> nearly ;2 $ercent believe t3at t3eir countries5 anti!corru$tion
la&s are ineffective> an< // $ercent of executives say t3at corru$tion is a si-nificant obstacle to
<oin- business. Many res$on<ents note< t3at t3is corru$tion also exten<s to t3e ran?s of
-overnment an< la& enforcement> often ren<erin- anti!corru$tion la&s ineffective. Still> t3ere
3as been $ro-ress in t3e re-ion since a similar Miller X C3evalier stu<y in 2DD.> &it3 more
res$on<ents re$ortin- t3at bot3 businesses an< -overnments 3ave ta?en increase< measures to
combat corru$tion. Multinational cor$orations 3ave -enerally been Guic?er to im$lement more
trainin- an< <ue <ili-ence $roce<ures t3an t3eir smaller re-ional counter$arts. #Com$anies
un<erstan< t3e $otentially 3i-3 cost of corru$tion an< are investin- in e<ucation an< ot3er tools
to $rotect t3eir re$utation> t3eir em$loyees> an< t3eir bottom line>N sai< @ames Tillen>
coor<inator of Miller X C3evalier5s international anti!corru$tion $ractice -rou$. Some more ?ey
fin<in-s from t3e re$ort are belo&: L2Y of com$anies t3at are $ublicly liste< in t3e =.S. an<
o$erate in Batin America 3ave an anti!corru$tion $olicy .5Y of res$on<ents sai< t3eir
com$anies5 mana-ement 3a< ta?en anti!corru$tion ste$s> u$ from ;;Y in 2DD. ;5Y of
res$on<ents ?no& of an offen<er bein- $unis3e< for ma?in- or receivin- illicit $ayments> u$
from 8LY in 2DD. ;8Y of C3ileans sai< t3eir country5s anti!corru$tion la&s are effective (t3e
=.S. came in secon<> at ;DY) DY of :ara-uayans believe t3at t3eir country5s anti!corru$tion
la&s are effective.
0#1
1.C S!ell: Corru)tion Disadvantage 317
+$ 0in: =oreign aid discourages governments from inde)endently
investing in t!eir countries" leading to increased corru)tion and distance
from t!e )u&lic#
,A*" 13
(So$3al> Assistant :rofessor of %ational Security Affairs at t3e =S %aval :ost-ra<uate Sc3ool
an< a Voun- 9lobal Bea<er at t3e 4orl< 2conomic 1orumA #,oes forei-n ai< fuel corru$tionR'
12/D*> 3tt$://forumblo-.or-/2D12/12/<oes!forei-n!ai<!fuel!corru$tion/)
2mbe<<e< &it3in :3nom :en35s $ursuit for re-ime le-itimacy> t3ere is an a<<itional an<
eGually im$ortant issue: t3e stea<y $resence of corru$tion enable< by forei-n ai< an<
intervention over t3e $ast t&o <eca<es. Ta?e into consi<eration Cambo<ia5s consistently $oor
ran?in- in t3e Corru$tion :erce$tion 0n<ex. 0n 2DD.> Cambo<ia ran?e< 188 out of 1.D an< in
2D11> t3e country ran?e< 18/ out of 1.2A a tren< of 3i-3 $ublic sector corru$tion. Corru$tion in
Cambo<ia is ram$ant an< a si-nificant 3in<rance to social an< economic <evelo$ment. T3e
social im$lications of ai< <e$en<ence is best consi<ere< &3en com$arin- 3o& muc3 ai< t3e
country receive< over a $erio< of time an< 3o& muc3 corru$tion an< maternal an< c3il<
mortality is $resent. Jne &oul< t3in? t3at after receivin- more ai<> maternal mortality> for
exam$le> &oul< si-nificantly <ecreaseA but it <i< not. Accor<in- to <ata obtaine< from t3e 4orl<
7an?5s 4orl< ,evelo$ment 0n<icators (4,0) in 1ebruary of t3is year> <es$ite t3e billions of
<ollars t3e country receive< in forei-n ai<> t3e inci<ence of maternal mortality increase< from
//D <eat3s $er 1DD>DDD live birt3s in 2DDD to /;2 in 2DD5> <ro$$in- only sli-3tly to /8D.. in
2DD. (t3ou-3 still 3i-3er t3an in 2DDD). Jn t3e ot3er 3an<> if one combine< bot3 current
<omestic revenues an< estimates of corru$tion> Cambo<ia &oul< 3ave t3e reGuire< resources to
<evelo$ on its o&n. o&ever> it is li?ely t3at t3e stea<y influx of ai< is <isru$tin- t3e
relations3i$ bet&een citiEens an< t3e a<ministration. =sin- 2DD2!2D1D <ata from t3e 4,0> for
every <ollar s$ent by t3e central -overnment> more t3an L/ cents of net forei-n ai< &as
receive<. 2ssentially> for every <ollar t3e -overnment s$ent> it receive< almost one <ollar. T3e
motivation to in<e$en<ently <evelo$ is lost.
0#1
1.C S!ell: Corru)tion Disadvantage 311
C$ 6m)acts:
1# 6ncreased corru)tion discourages investment and gro't! t!at are
necessary for economic and )olitical sta&ility#
MO:O" 7<
(,ambisa> former economist at 9ol<man Sac3sA #43y 1orei-n Ai< 0s urtin- Africa>' */21>
3tt$://online.&sI.com/article/S712*;5..L5LLL2DDD.*.3tml)
Vet evi<ence over&3elmin-ly <emonstrates t3at ai< to Africa 3as ma<e t3e $oor $oorer> an< t3e
-ro&t3 slo&er. T3e insi<ious ai< culture 3as left African countries more <ebt!la<en> more
inflation!$rone> more vulnerable to t3e va-aries of t3e currency mar?ets an< more unattractive
to 3i-3er!Guality investment. 0tMs increase< t3e ris? of civil conflict an< unrest (t3e fact t3at over
8DY of sub!Sa3aran AfricaMs $o$ulation is un<er t3e a-e of 2/ &it3 fe& economic $ros$ects is a
cause for &orry). Ai< is an unmiti-ate< $olitical> economic an< 3umanitarian <isaster.
3# .o solvency: Aid only encourages ot!er countries to act lie t!ey are
cleaning u)" '!ile s!ifting corru)tion to more covert mec!anisms#
0,F6." 77
(Vuval> fello& at t3e 2t3ics an< :ublic :olicy CenterA #American Ai< to t3e Mi<<le 2ast: A
Tra-e<y of 9oo< 0ntentions>'3tt$://&&&.israeleconomy.or-/strat11/strate-ic11.$<f)
2-y$t is t3e most $rominent an< extreme exam$le of t3is $roblem> but t3e $roblem a$$lies to
all of America5s Arab $artners in t3e $eace $rocess. 0n or<er to su$$ort t3e in3erently incre<ible
scri$t of t3e $eace $rocess> t3e =.S. 3as 3a< to create a fictional $olitical reality> an< t3e only
&ay to <o t3is is to continue funnelin- money to t3e actors. T3e $romise of ai< brin-s t3e
$artici$ants to t3e table> an< t3e $o&er of ai< ?ee$s t3em from o$enly <efyin- t3e scri$t> but
Iust beneat3 t3e surface> as &e 3ave Iust seen &it3 2-y$t> t3e realities of $olitics 3ave not
<isa$$eare<> an< t3e nations involve< act in &ays &3ic3 3arm =.S. interests an< certainly
contra<ict t3e vision of com$re3ensive $eace. American $olicy an< American interests t3us
come increasin-ly into conflict &it3 one anot3er> an< ai< is a $rinci$al cause of t3is -ro&in-
contra<iction. 1inally> ai< is $ositively 3armful because it ?ee$s t3is contra<iction 3i<<en from
American eyes an< ma?es t3e =nite< States a victim of its o&n -enerosity.
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t H ?1 @.o 0inA B1>3C 313
-!ey say t!at t!ere%s no lin to t!e s)ecific ind of economic assistance t!at
t!ey su))ort" &ut # # #
1$ ,conomic assistance doesn%t go to t!e )eo)le" it goes t!roug! government
agencies looing to get more assistance# -!is encourages t!em to su))ress
good )olicies in order to continue Eualifying for aid" and creates corru)tion
'!en officials )ocet t!e money# Our evidence is s)ecific to (#S# economic
assistance" '!ic! lins to t!e )lan# ,xtend our ,A* evidence#
3$ More 0in evidence: Aid fuels corru)tion &y encouraging &ad
governments to maintain t!e status Euo" or )ander for more assistance# 6t
discourages maing toug! )olicy c!oices to im)rove democracy or
trans)arency#
MO:O" 7<
A nascent economy nee<s a trans$arent an< accountable -overnment an< an efficient civil
service to 3el$ meet social nee<s. 0ts $eo$le nee< Iobs an< a belief in t3eir countryMs future. A
surfeit of ai< 3as been s3o&n to be unable to 3el$ ac3ieve t3ese -oals. A constant stream of
NfreeN money is a $erfect &ay to ?ee$ an inefficient or sim$ly ba< -overnment in $o&er. As ai<
flo&s in> t3ere is not3in- more for t3e -overnment to <o !! it <oesnMt nee< to raise taxes> an< as
lon- as it $ays t3e army> it <oesnMt 3ave to ta?e account of its <is-runtle< citiEens. %o matter
t3at its citiEens are <isenfranc3ise< (as &it3 no taxation t3ere can be no re$resentation). All t3e
-overnment really nee<s to <o is to court an< cater to its forei-n <onors to stay in $o&er. Stuc?
in an ai< &orl< of no incentives> t3ere is no reason for -overnments to see? ot3er> better> more
trans$arent &ays of raisin- <evelo$ment finance (suc3 as accessin- t3e bon< mar?et> <es$ite
3o& 3ar< t3at mi-3t be). T3e ai< system encoura-es $oor!country -overnments to $ic? u$ t3e
$3one an< as? t3e <onor a-encies for next ca$ital infusion. 0t is no &on<er t3at across Africa>
over ;DY of t3e $ublic $urse comes from forei-n ai<.
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t H ?1 @.o 0inA B3>3C 311
1$ Ot!er countries 'ill )ocet (#S# assistance 'it!out c!anging &e!aviors
&ecause free money gives incentives to continue mis&e!aving#
0,F6." 77
1ar from stren-t3enin- America5s allies an< fosterin- com$liance amon- America5s clients> =.S.
ai< 3as 3arme< t3e economies of 0srael an< ot3er allies> &3ile failin- to restrain 2-y$tian an<
:alestinian misbe3avior. %evert3eless> =.S. $olicy ma?ers are &e<<e< to ai< because t3ey 3o$e
t3at t3e economic #carrot' &ill lea< t3e Mi<<le 2ast a&ay from clas3es bet&een interests an<
$o&ers> an< to&ar< a com$re3ensive $eace. =.S. $olicy seems to be base< on a sense t3at t3e
ol< &ays of <oin- t3in-s in international affairs are no lon-er relevant> t3at 3istory as &e 3ave
?no&n it is nearin- a sort of en<> an< t3at &e no& stan< at t3e t3res3ol< of a &3ole ne& &orl<.
Americans (an< 0sraelis) &3o t3in? t3is &ay i-nore t3e actual be3avior of t3e Arab states in $art
because t3e vast sums of American money involve< -ive reci$ients an incentive to $lay alon-
an< <onors a means to Iustify t3eir commitment. T3us it may be sai< t3at Americans $ay for t3e
blin<fol<s t3at cover t3eir eyes.
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t H ?3 @Many Causes of Corru)tionA 314
-!ey say t!at t!ere many ot!er causes of corru)tion# Ho'ever" # # #
1$ (#S# assistance encourages ot!er countries to lie a&out t!eir )rogress and
'or against (#S# interests '!ic! causes corru)tion to increase# -!eir
evidence outlines t!e 'ay t!at corru)tion actually !a))ens" '!ic! su))orts
our argument# ,xtend our 0,F6. evidence#
3$ -!is taes out Affirmative solvency &ecause t!ey !ave conceded t!at t!e
)lan does not address t!e root causes of corru)tion# 6f 'e 'in t!at
corru)tion )revents economic assistance from &eing used effectively" t!en
t!ey can%t 'in solvency#
1$ Aid goes to causes &ased on cultural reasons" not economic need# -!is
allo's for corru)t government )rograms to steal assistance meant for t!e
needy#
-AFA*,S" 71
(@ose> ,e$artment of 2conomics at =niversi<a<e %ova <e Bisboa in :ortu-alA #,oes forei-n ai<
corru$tR' 2conomic Betters v. ;L>
3tt$://&&&.<oc3as.ie/S3are</1iles///,oes1orei-nAi<Corru$t1inal.$<f)
6ecent researc3 3as establis3e< conclusively t3at ai< flo&s follo& cultural an< 3istoric ties
rat3er t3an nee< or merit. Alesina an< ,ollar (2DD2) use< bilateral tra<e <ata to s3o& t3at t3e
amount of ai< is &ea?ly relate< to t3e reci$ient country5s economic $erformance an< stron-ly
relate< to in<icators of cultural an< 3istoric $roximity bet&een t3e countries. 7urnsi<e an<
,ollar (1LL.> 2DDD) an< Collier an< ,ollar (1LL.) re$ort t3at ai< is uncorrelate< &it3 t3e
reci$ient country5s economic -ro&t3 or $overty inci<ence. 0f ai< is not c3annele< to $ro<uctive
uses or to $overty re<uction> it may be -oin- some&3ere else. Jne $ossibility is t3at ai< is
c3annele< to uses t3at $romote corru$tion.
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t H ?1 @Case Out'eig!sA 315
-!ey say t!at t!e case out'eig!s t!e disad im)act" &ut # # #
1$ Our Disadvantage out'eig!s t!eir Harms: 6ncreasing corru)tion in 0atin
American countries causes economic colla)se and regional civil 'ars t!at
ex)and t!roug!out t!e region# -!eir im)acts reEuire t!at 0atin America
remain sta&le" &ut if corru)tion causes insta&ility t!en t!eir !arms im)acts
are inevita&le and reasons to vote .egative#
3$ Corru)tion '!ere it exists systemically undermines t!e effectiveness of
0atin American governments" resulting in an a&solute solvency tae-out" at
a minimum#
0OM+O*; A.D AC5,*MA." 78
(7Iorn> a<Iunct $rofessor at t3e Co$en3a-en 7usiness Sc3oolA Susan> :rofessor of Ba& an<
:olitical Science at Vale =niversity A #Batin America5s Corru$tion C3allen-e>' 1D/28>
3tt$://&&&.$roIect!syn<icate.or-/commentary/latin!america!s!corru$tion!c3allen-e)
0t is <ifficult to <istin-uis3 t3e conseGuences from t3e causes of t3e corru$tion t3at be<evils
many Batin American an< Caribbean nations. Corru$tion limits -ro&t3> but lo& -ro&t3 itself
encoura-es corru$tion an< ma?es it <ifficult to im$rove -overnment effectiveness. 0n any case>
corru$tion alone is not t3e essential $roblem. 6at3er> it symboliEes an< 3i-3li-3ts un<erlyin-
&ea?nesses in t3e o$eration of t3e state an< its interactions &it3 citiEens an< businesses.
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t H ?4 @Corru)tion is Hig!A 312
-!ey say t!at t!e disad is non-uniEue &ecause t!eir country is already
corru)t# /e differ#
1$ 0atin American countries are 'oring to fig!t corru)tion t!roug! ne'
la's and &usiness investment t!at maes economic gro't! liely in t!e
s!ort-term# Our 6.S6D, CO(.S,0 evidence is from com)re!ensive surveys
of t!e region t!at loo at more factors t!an t!eir evidence#
3$ -!e most accurate index of )olitical corru)tion s!o's t!at almost every
country in 0atin America is im)roving#

-6M, MA;AD6.," 13
(Tim :a<-ett> staff &riter A #Tale of T&o Corru$tos: 7raEil an< Mexico on ,ifferent
Trans$arency :at3s>'
12/D8> 3tt$://&orl<.time.com/2D12/12/D8/tale!of!t&o!corru$tos!braEil!an<!mexico!on!
<ifferent!trans$arency!$at3s/)
T3at5s si-nificant because one of t3e 0n<ex5s bi--est stories in recent years is t3at Batin America
3as be-un to s3e< its centuries!ol< ima-e as t3e most venal re-ion on eart3. More t3an 3alf of
t3e Batin American nations en<e< u$ in t3e to$ 3alf of t3e 0n<ex a-ain t3is year K an< C3ile an<
=ru-uay> &3ic3 tie< at %o. 2D> are Iust one slot be3in< t3e =.S. (Cana<a> 3ome of ,u<ley ,o!
6i-3t> is %o. L> t3e best in t3e &estern 3emis$3ereA ,enmar?> 1inlan< an< %e& Oealan< tie< for
%o. 1.) T3e fact t3at 7raEil 3as brou-3t itself more in line &it3 t3at tren< t3an Mexico 3as K
&3en at t3e turn of t3e century 7raEil &as still ?no&n for its Trem <a Ale-ria> or @oy Train> t3e
sar<onic name 7raEilians -ave t3eir 3y$er!embeEElin- $ublic bureaucracy K sim$ly -ives -lobal
me<ia anot3er excuse to fa&n.
1$ /e !ave evidence s)ecific to t!eir country:
B6nsert Country-s)ecific (niEuenessC
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t H ?5 @Aid Solves Corru)tionA B1>3C 318
-!ey say t!at aid &rings rules and conditions t!at actually reduce
corru)tion# -!at%s not true#
1$ (#S# economic assistance encourages corru)tion &y maing it easier for
governments to avoid maing toug! )olicy c!oices '!ile still receiving
enoug! revenue to stay in )o'er# ,xtend our ,A* and 0,F6. evidence#
3$ Our 0in out'eig!s t!eir turn &ecause of somet!ing called @moral
!aGard#A Aid convinces ot!er countries t!at t!e (#S# 'ill al'ays &ail out
t!eir mistaes" '!ic! encourages furt!er miscalculation and mis&e!avior#
0,F6." 77
=.S. ai<> t3en> creates t3e strate-ic eGuivalent of &3at investors call #moral 3aEar<' F t3at is> an
in<ucement to irres$onsibility cause< by t3e belief t3at someone else &ill bear eventual losses.
0n forei-n $olicy as in economic $olicy> t3en> ai< mas?s t3e effects of t3e 0sraeli elites5 <efects.
T3e cycle of error is circular an< self!intensifyin-. 0srael5s elites <o not &is3 3arm on t3eir
$eo$le or t3eir nation> but t3e combination of economic an< $olitical interests &it3 a cru<e
i<ealism in international $olitics 3as ma<e t3em 3ee<less of t3e conseGuences of t3eir actions.
T3e violence &3ic3 be-an in Se$tember 2DDD is t3e star?est exam$le an< most <irect result of
t3is cycle of errors.
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t H ?5 @Aid Solves Corru)tionA B3>3C 319
1$ ,m)irical data su))orts our argument# Countries receiving t!e most aid
are t!e most corru)t#
*,;.,*:" 13
(Alfre<> former ,e$uty Assistant Attorney 9eneral> Ban< an< %atural 6esources ,ivision for =S
@ustice ,e$artmentA #T3e Scan<al T3at 0s 1orei-n Ai<>' 1D/D*> &&&.breitbart.com/7i-!
:eace/2D12/1D/D*/T3e!Scan<al!T3at!0s!1orei-n!Ai<)
2xce$tin- 0srael> ei-3t countries receivin- t3e most =S forei-n ai< are t3e ei-3t most corru$t
countries in t3e &orl< F Su<an> Cenya> :a?istan> =-an<a> %i-eria> 2t3io$ia> 2-y$t> an<
Columbia> accor<in- to &&&.A0,Monitor.com> a &atc3<o- -rou$. 2ven &orse> nobo<y 3as any
i<ea &3et3er =S ai< actually <oes furt3er =S national security interests. A 2DD8 re$ort from t3e
9overnment Accountability Jffice> for exam$le> criticiEe< bot3 t3e State ,e$artment an< t3e
,efense ,e$artment for failin- to measure 3o& t3e fun<in- actually contributes to =.S. -oals.
4$ :ou s!ould &e se)tical of all t!eir solvency claims# Aid money is never
audited" so t!ere is no guarantee it is &eing used )ro)erly#
*,;.,*:" 13
T3e =S A-ency for 0nternational ,evelo$ment (=SA0,)> t3e State ,e$artment entity t3at
a<ministers forei-n ai<> 3as a<mitte< t3at it really 3as no i<ea 3o& muc3 =S tax$ayers5 money
is use< for its inten<e< $ur$ose an< 3o& muc3 lines t3e $oc?ets of corru$t $oliticians or &in<s
u$ in S&iss ban?s. Accor<in- to =SA0,5s 0ns$ector 9eneral> t3e a-ency faile<> in 2DDL> to
con<uct man<atory annual au<its of about S5DD million in fun<s transferre< to 52 forei-n
countries because #it &as unable to $ro<uce an inventory of all or-aniEations it -ives money to.'
:eo$le familiar &it3 t3e &ay =SA0, &or?s believe t3e 0ns$ector 9eneral5s comment is vastly
un<erstate<.
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t H ?2 @,vidence 6sn%t CausalA 31<
-!ey say t!at t!ere is no )roof of causality H t!at t!e countries to '!ic!
foreign aid is sent already usually !ave corru)t governments# Ho'ever" # # #
1$ /e 'ill 'in a causal lin: Aid creates )o'erful domestic interest grou)s
t!at reEuire more and more assistance '!ile )us!ing local governments
furt!er and furt!er from (#S# control#
0,F6." 77
=.S. ai< to 2-y$t <emonstrates t3e ina<eGuacy of one of t3e central assum$tions of American
ai< $olicy: t3at ai< allo&s a meanin-ful measure of control over t3e be3avior of $otentially
unfrien<ly re-imes. 0n fact> as &e s3all see> ai< an< t3e $olitics surroun<in- it seem to ma?e t3e
=.S. less ca$able of <ealin- &it3 suc3 states> not more so. T3is is bot3 because t3e amounts of
money involve< inevitably create interest -rou$s t3at ma?e t3eir livin- off t3e continuation of
t3e ai<> an< because if t3e ai< &ere to be sto$$e< t3e entire structure of American ex$ectations
&oul< colla$se F alon- &it3 t3e re$utations of t3e $olicyma?ers. An< so> t3e =.S. is stuc?
financin- re-imes t3at sGuarely o$$ose its strate-ic interests> all t3e &3ile maintainin- t3at
su$$ortin- t3em is an essential American strate-ic concern.
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t H ?8 @+usinesses Cause Corru)tionA B1>3C
347
-!ey say t!at &usinesses cause corru)tion" t!erefore maing our disad non-
uniEue" &ut # # #
1$ Our argument is s)ecific to government corru)tion# Our 0ins )rove t!at
government-to-government assistance increases corru)tion" '!ic! is
enoug! to trigger our im)acts#
3$ ;overnment corru)tion maes &usiness corru)tion 'orse" '!ic! feeds
t!e cycle# Aid leaves countries )oor and 'it!out )roductive &usiness
investment#

*,;.,*:" 13
Alt3ou-3 =S forei-n ai< may be very -oo< for t3e contractors> it is very ba< for $oor countries F
or at least t3e -eneral $o$ulation of $oor countries. 2conomist ,ambisa Moyo> a native of
Oambia an< an ex$ert on forei-n assistance in Africa &rote recently in T3e 4all Street @ournal
t3at over t3e $ast 8D years some S1 trillion 3as been transferre< from 4estern countries to
Africa. 7ut real $er!ca$ita income is lo&er to<ay t3an it &as in t3e 1L;Ds> an< more t3an one
3alf of t3e $o$ulation of t3e entire continent lives on less t3an one <ollar a <ay F nearly t&ice
t3e number of 2D years a-o. Moyo ma?es no bones about t3e fact t3at forei-n ai< is #an
unmiti-ate< $olitical> economic an< 3umanitarian <isaster[ it 3as ma<e t3e $oor $oorer> an<
t3e -ro&t3 slo&er. 0t 3as left African countries <ebt!la<en> inflation!$rone> vulnerable to t3e
va-aries of t3e currency mar?ets an< unattractive to 3i-3er Guality investment.'
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t H ?8 @+usinesses Cause Corru)tionA B3>3C
341
1$ Corru)tion drives successful &usinesses out and !am)ers investment"
leading to economic decline#
-AFA*,S" 71
Several em$irical stu<ies 3ave $rovi<e< evi<ence t3at t3e costs of corru$tion are consi<erable.
Mauro (1LL5) estimates t3at an increase in corru$tion of one sam$le stan<ar< <eviation
<ecreases investment an< -ro&t3 by 5 an< D.5Y of 9,:> res$ectively. Ceefer an< Cnac? (1LL5)
confirm t3e existence of a <irect ne-ative effect of corru$tion on -ro&t3> in a<<ition to t3e effect
of corru$tion on investment. 0n a<<ition> corru$tion ma?es it <ifficult for -overnments to raise
revenue to finance $ublic services since corru$t environments <rive businesses un<er-roun< to
avoi< formal taxation (BoayEa> 1LL8). More> since bribes are 3ar<er to collect on certain
transactions> corru$tion biases t3e $rovision of $ublic -oo<s a&ay from e<ucation. Jn t3e
monetary front> Al!Mar3ubi (2DDD) s3o&s t3at corru$tion an< inflation are $ositively
associate<> even after controllin- for ot3er <eterminants of inflation suc3 as $olitical instability
an< central!ban? in<e$en<ence.
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t H ?9 @4lan Solves Corru)tionA B1>3C 343
-!ey say t!at t!eir )lan solves for corru)tion" &ut # # #
1$ Our 0in arguments a&ove )rove t!at )lan cannot overcome corru)tion#
6t is still financial assistance to a foreign government" '!ic! encourages
&ad )olicies# -!eir evidence is a&out !o)e" not reality#
*,;.,*:" 13
1ormer 6ea-an!era Ambassa<or 2u-ene ,ou-las> &3o 3as visite< Africa <oEens of times bot3 as
a <i$lomat an< as a businessman> an< &3o 3as closely observe< =S forei-n ai< an< its im$act
for years> tol< me> #t3e system is rotten an< 3as become Iust anot3er $i--y ban? for t3e ]one
&orl<5 $ro-ressive colle-e -ra<uates &3o fin< it so u$liftin- to act out fantasies &it3 tax$ayer
fun<s an< virtually no $ractical accountability.' =S forei-n ai< is no stran-er to criticism. 0t &as
ori-inally inten<e< to $romote =S forei-n $olicy but is increasin-ly use< for $olitical an<
3umanitarian $ur$oses &3ic3 often 3ave little to <o &it3 American interests. 0t is Guestionable
&3et3er it 3as any $ositive im$act on =S forei-n $olicyA nobo<y ?no&s 3o& muc3 of &3at &e
sen< abroa< is stolen> converte< to anot3er use> or actually reac3es its inten<e< <estination.
3$ Attem)ting to fig!t corru)tion 'it! more aid can only )us! t!e )ro&lem
to ot!er )laces# Corru)t &usinesses 'ill )ursue government ties in ot!er
countries in t!e region" s)reading corru)tion every'!ere#
0(.A" 11
(,avi<> ,irector for Anticrime :ro-rams> 7ureau of 0nternational %arcotics an< Ba&
2nforcement AffairsA #Bevera-in- :artners3i$s to Combat Corru$tion> Money Baun<erin-> an<
0llicit %et&or?s># D*/1*> 3tt$://&&&.state.-ov/I/inl/rls/rm/2D1*/2D5.LL.3tm)
Ba<ies an< -entlemen> in recent years> our 3emis$3ere 3as seen t3e rise of violent criminal
net&or?s vyin- for a -reater mar?et s3are in t3e -lobal ille-al economy. 4e 3ave learne< t3at
&3en &e a$$ly $ressure on t3ese net&or?s in one $lace> t3ey a<a$t t3eir o$erations an< routes
to ne& $laces. T3ey brin- &it3 t3em violence> fire$o&er> an< corru$tion. 4e sa& t3is #balloon
effect' in t3e 1LLDs: &3en Colombia crac?e< <o&n on <ru- $ro<uction an< traffic?in-> t3ese
activities increase< in ot3er An<ean countries> li?e 2cua<or> :eru an< 7olivia. %e& traffic?in-
routes emer-e<> an< t3e counter!narcotics battlefiel< s3ifte< to Mexico. Sustaine< $ressure by
Mexican security forces in recent years 3as force< t3e cartels to $us3 t3eir o$erations into
Central America. on<uras> 9uatemala> an< 7eliEe are no& sufferin- a sta--erin- increase in
<ru- traffic?in- an< crime.
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t H ?9 @4lan Solves Corru)tionA B3>3C 341
1$ -!ey !ave to 'in t!at t!e )lan gets enforced &y t!e foreign government
&efore t!ey can 'in solvency" and our lins !a))en faster# Most aid is
'asted on salaries and ex)ensive tri)s#
*,;.,*:" 13
T3ese are not small entre$reneurs un<erta?in- little $roIects in t3e African bus3. Ten American
for!$rofit -overnment contractors eac3 receive< over S2DD million from =SA0, last year an<
to-et3er receive< S*.1L billion to a<minister #<evelo$ment' $roIectsA t3ose com$anies are often
run an< staffe< by former =SA0, em$loyees un<er &3at mi-3t be <escribe< as a secon<
retirement system. 7y t3e time t3ey ta?e out t3eir over3ea<> fees for t3e la&yers> lobbyists an<
$ublic relations s$ecialists> con<uct environmental an< feasibility stu<ies> $ay for first class
travel for ins$ection visits an< to atten< 3i-3!en< conferences at t3e &orl<5s best &aterin- 3oles>
little of t3e tax$ayers5 money is left to <o &3at t3e <ollars &ere inten<e< for.
4$ ,conomic assistance !as no enforcement mec!anism" allo'ing it to &e
funneled a'ay from t!ose '!o need it and into government &ureaucrats%
c!ecing accounts#
MO:O" 7<
T3e most obvious criticism of ai< is its lin?s to ram$ant corru$tion. Ai< flo&s <estine< to 3el$
t3e avera-e African en< u$ su$$ortin- bloate< bureaucracies in t3e form of t3e $oor!country
-overnments an< <onor!fun<e< non!-overnmental or-aniEations. 0n a 3earin- before t3e =.S.
Senate Committee on 1orei-n 6elations in May 2DD/> @effrey 4inters> a $rofessor at
%ort3&estern =niversity> ar-ue< t3at t3e 4orl< 7an? 3a< $artici$ate< in t3e corru$tion of
rou-3ly S1DD billion of its loan fun<s inten<e< for <evelo$ment. As recently as 2DD2> t3e
African =nion> an or-aniEation of African nations> estimate< t3at corru$tion &as costin- t3e
continent S15D billion a year> as international <onors &ere a$$arently turnin- a blin< eye to t3e
sim$le fact t3at ai< money &as ina<vertently fuelin- -raft. 4it3 fe& or no strin-s attac3e<> it
3as been all too easy for t3e fun<s to be use< for anyt3in-> save t3e <evelo$mental $ur$ose for
&3ic3 t3ey &ere inten<e<.
0#1
Country-S)ecific (niEueness: Mexico B1>3C 344
1$ 6nternational organiGations agree t!at Mexico is im)roving &y maing
government corru)tion more difficult#
O,CD" 11
(Jr-anisation for 2conomic Co!o$eration an< ,evelo$mentA #T3e J2C, ac?no&le<-es $ro-ress
ma<e> an< says Mexico s3oul< furt3er $rioritise fi-3tin- forei-n bribery>' 1D/1L>
3tt$://&&&.oec<.or-/ne&sroom/t3eoec<ac?no&le<-es$ro-ressma<ean<saysmexicos3oul<furt
3er$rioritisefi-3tin-forei-nbribery.3tml)
Mexico 3as im$rove<> but nee<s to -ive -reater $riority to t3e criminal enforcement of bribery
an< ensure t3at its criminal la& enforcement aut3orities 3ave all t3e resources an< ex$ertise
t3ey nee< to seriously investi-ate all alle-ations> accor<in- to a ne& J2C, re$ort. T3e J2C,
4or?in- 9rou$ on 7ribery 3as Iust com$lete< a revie& of Mexico5s enforcement of t3e
Convention on Combatin- 7ribery of 1orei-n :ublic Jfficials in 0nternational 7usiness
Transactions an< relate< instruments. T3e 4or?in- 9rou$ also recommen<s t3at Mexico: Ta?e
action on $en<in- le-islation to furt3er combat corru$tion> in $articular amen< an< enforce its
la& on cor$orate liability for forei-n briberyA 2x$an< its la& on confiscation of t3e bribe an< its
$rocee<s an< ensure t3at confiscation is routinely a$$lie< in $racticeA Continue to im$rove t3e
level an< s$ee< of its res$onsiveness to mutual le-al assistance reGuests involvin- forei-n
bribery!relate< casesA Clarify ex$licitly t3at bribes to forei-n $ublic officials are not <e<uctible
for tax $ur$osesA 2nact le-islation to $rotect &3istleblo&ers in t3e $ublic an< $rivate sectorsA
an< Amen< its le-islation to clarify t3at external au<itors must re$ort crimes <iscovere< <urin-
au<its to la& enforcement aut3orities> an< t3at au<itors &3o re$ort are $rotecte< from re$risals.
T3e 4or?in- 9rou$ also note< $ositive as$ects of Mexico5s im$lementation of t3e Convention>
inclu<in- efforts an< 3i-3!level commitment to raise a&areness of t3e ris?s of forei-n bribery
&it3in t3e $rivate sector. T3e Mexican -overnment 3as s3o&n commen<able lea<ers3i$ in
fi-3tin- corru$tion!relate< money!laun<erin- in t3e 1inancial Action Tas? 1orce.
0#1
Country-S)ecific (niEueness: Mexico B3>3C 345
3$ Mexico%s ne' )resident" along 'it! )o)ular reform movements" are
taing effective action against corru)tion#
4,.. 4O06-6CA0 *,F6,/" 11
(Casey Mariel An<erson> #Mexico: Civil Society 9ains to Counter Corru$tion>' //15>
$enn$oliticalrevie&.or-/2D1*/D//mexico!civil!society!-ains!to!counter!corru$tion/)
:eHa %ieto also $lans on continuin- to o$en u$ Mexico to forei-n tra<e an< tac?lin-
mono$olies> startin- &it3 telecommunications. 43ile t3e telecom mono$oly is $rimarily
controlle< by t3e &orl<5s &ealt3iest in<ivi<ual> Carlos Slim> t3e ne& la& is not inten<e< to
$unis3 any in<ivi<ual firm an< instea< o$ens u$ s$ace in t3e in<ustry for com$etition an<
forei-n investment. T3ese reforms strive to&ar<s increasin- mar?et efficiency> &3ile current
$olicies maintain a com$etitive exc3an-e rate an< lo& interest rates t3at are currently <rivin-
Mexico5s ex$ort!<riven -ro&t3. Mexico a$$ears to be t3e ne& 3ots$ot for forei-n investment as
7raEil be-ins to sta-nate an< Mexico flouris3es <ue to its ex$ort <iversification> it is less
vulnerable to commo<ity tra<e slo&<o&ns. 0t is also t3e country &it3 t3e most free tra<e
a-reements (//) in t3e &orl<> an< is set to Ioin t3e Trans!:acific :artners3i$ (T::). T3ese
c3an-es ins$ire muc3 3o$e in Mexico> a country t3at 3as been in t3e s3a<o& of t3e =nite<
States for far too lon-. 7ut t3is recent sur-e in forei-n investment an< subseGuent -ro&t3 &ill
s$ur more motivation to <eman< increase $olitical accountability because it sen<s t3e messa-e
t3at it is &or?in-. Tire< of corru$t officials ma?in- em$ty $romises t3e $eo$le of Mexico 3ave
ta?en it u$on t3emselves an< t3e rise of tec3nolo-y 3as facilitate< t3e $rocess of creatin- a
le-itimate civil society t3at fosters i<eas an< $olitical inclusion. 1urt3er> violence a-ainst
Iournalists> restrictin- t3e flo& of information> 3as create< a <iffuse< sense of res$onsibility>
&it3 or<inary Mexicans $ostin- $ictures an< vi<eos online to ensure t3ese stories are tol<.
Mexico is <ifferent because it 3as mor$3e< its initially yout3!fuele< use of social me<ia an<
tec3nolo-y from an outlet for voicin- <iscontent> to&ar<s t3e <evelo$ment of an ex$ansive civil
society t3at can $rovi<e a c3ec? on -overnment corru$tion. 43ile t3is movement still lac?s
<e$t3 an< or-aniEation> even in its nascent sta-es it re$resents a massive ste$ for&ar<. 0t si-nals
t3at Mexicans 3ave reac3e< a brea?in- $oint an< are rea<y to become active $artici$ants in t3e
fi-3t a-ainst corru$tion. 43ile it is still early in :eHa %ieto5s a<ministration to <ra& any
<efinitive conclusions> an< t3e on-oin- <ru- &ar still remains untouc3e<> t3ese c3an-es are
$romisin-. 0f Mexico can <evelo$ a civil society> increasin- $artici$ation an< em$o&erment via
tec3nolo-y> an< conseGuently increase $olitical accountability> ot3ers in Batin America can <o
t3e same. T3e :eHa %ieto a<ministration &ill be a critical test of a ne& re-ime c3aracteriEe< by
electorate!enforce< accountability. Corru$tion remains t3e bi--est c3allen-e to any reforms in
Batin America> an< t3e solution is a stron- civil society. T3is reGuires some action on t3e $art of
citiEens> &3ic3 Mexicans are seemin-ly only 3a$$y to ta?e on. T3is un<erlies a fun<amental
lesson in <evelo$ment> -oo< $olicy <oes not mean anyt3in- if it cannot be im$lemente<.
0#1
Country-S)ecific (niEueness: FeneGuela 342
1$ -!e ne' )resident of FeneGuela is taing action against corru)tion and
arresting criminals in t!e government#
F,.,D(,0A.A0:S6S" 11
(2&an 6obertsonA #+eneEuela5s Ma<uro Stri?es a-ainst Corru$tion> A$$oints 6a<ical 1ormer
Minister>' 8/11> 3tt$://veneEuelanalysis.com/ne&s/L8.L)
T3e +eneEuelan -overnment 3as ex$ose< an alle-e< extortion rin- o$eratin- &it3in t3e state
a-ency &3ic3 re-ulates $rice controls. Jn Sun<ay mornin- $olice struc? a-ainst alle-e<
extortionists &or?in- &it3in t3e 0nstitute for t3e ,efence of :eo$le in Access to 9oo<s an<
Services (0n<e$abis)> t3e consumer $rotection a-ency res$onsible for ensurin- com$liance &it3
-overnment $rice controls. T3e 3ea< of control an< ins$ection at 0n<e$abis> Trino Mart\neE>
&as arreste< after $olice re$orte< fin<in- a lar-e sum of money an< a firearm insi<e 3is official
car. T3e o$eration &as execute< follo&in- <enunciations to anti!corru$tion officials> &3ic3
alle-e< t3at some 0n<e$abis staff in Caracas &ere <eman<in- $ay!offs from businesses un<er
t3reat of unfair sanctions. +eneEuelan $resi<ent %icolas Ma<uro confirme< t3e o$eration
t3rou-3 t&itter on Sun<ay> <eclarin-> #4e5re -oin- full out a-ainst corru$tion'. T3e $resi<ent of
0n<e$abis> Consuela Cerra<a> &as also <ismisse<. Tac?lin- corru$tion &as one of Ma<uro5s ?ey
$le<-es before 3is election in A$ril. o&ever> t3e release of a recor<in- last mont3 featurin- t3e
voice of $ro!-overnment Iournalist Mario Silva a$$eare< to incriminate several state officials in
corru$t acts.
0#1
Country-S)ecific (niEueness: Cu&a 348
1$ *aul Castro is cracing do'n on corru)tion &y arresting )oliticians
taing &ri&es#
1 .,/S" 11
(:aul aven> #Cuba tar-ets corru$tion ami< economic reform>'11/2D>
3tt$://&&&.*ne&s.co.nE/Cuba!tar-ets!corru$tion!ami<!economic!
reform/tabi<//1;/article0,/2***8D/,efault.as$x)
9reen!cla< security a-ents s&oo$ <o&n on an u$scale business com$lex to s3utter t3e offices of
a Cana<ian car <ealers3i$. To$ executives at CubaMs fame< ci-ar mono$oly fin< t3emselves
be3in< bars. A former -overnment minister tra<es 3is seat in $o&er for a Iail cell an< a 15!year
term. :resi<ent 6aul Castro is matc3in- 3is free mar?et economic c3an-es &it3 a Eealous battle
a-ainst entrenc3e< corru$tion on t3is Communist!run islan<> muc3 of it involvin- Cuban
officials at maIor state!run com$anies an< ministries as &ell as t3e forei-ners t3ey <o business
&it3.
3$ Castro is committed to fig!ting corru)tion#
1 .,/S" 11
Castro 3as t3ro&n 3is full &ei-3t be3in< t3e $roIect since ta?in- over from 3is ailin- brot3er in
2DD8. 0n 2DD;> 3e si-ne< a la& im$osin- stricter rules on $ublic officials. 43en 3e $ut 7eIerano
in c3ar-e of t3e Com$troller 9eneralMs Jffice in 2DDL> 3e altere< t3e c3ain of comman< so t3at
s3e &oul< re$ort <irectly to 3im an< t3e Council of State> CubaMs su$reme -overnin- bo<y. 2ven
t3e Cuban lea<er 3as Io?e< t3at 7eIerano &as not t3e most $o$ular at -overnment $arties.
NComra<e 9la<ys 7eIerano &as not &ell li?e< by some> an< t3ere &as al&ays someone
com$lainin-N t3at 3er investi-ations are N<emoraliEin->N Castro tol< le-islators in a ,ecember
2D1D s$eec3. NT3ey sai< j9la<ys is very unfor-ivin-> s3e can be very stern.M T3at is &3at &e
&ant. T3at is &3at 0 constantly <eman<.N T3e arrests an< rai<s also 3ave sent a s3u<<er t3rou-3
avanaMs small forei-n business community> a collection of ris?!ta?ers &3o al&ays 3ave
acce$te< a 3i-3 <e-ree of uncertainty <oin- business &it3 a Marxist country t3at is subIect to a
/L!year =S tra<e embar-o> an< &3ic3 3as a mixe< trac? recor< of $ayment. Some no& see
t3emselves as tar-ets.
0#1
A>t: @-!e 4lan doesn%t give moneyA 349
1$ .on-cas! assistance is 'orse &ecause it re)laces domestically-)roduced
goods" '!ic! causes over-reliance on foreign )roducts and colla)ses local
manufacturing#
MO:O" 7<
To a<vance a countryMs economic $ros$ects> -overnments nee< efficient civil service. 7ut civil
service is naturally $rone to bureaucracy> an< t3ere is al&ays t3e inci$ient <an-er of self!servin-
cronyism an< t3e <esire to bin< citiEens in en<less> time!consumin- re< ta$e. 43at ai< <oes is
to ma?e t3at <an-er a -rim reality. T3is 3el$s to ex$lain &3y <oin- business across muc3 of
Africa is a ni-3tmare. 0n Cameroon> it ta?es a $otential investor aroun< /28 <ays to $erform 15
$roce<ures to -ain a business license. 43at entre$reneur &ants to s$en< 11L <ays fillin- out
forms to start a business in An-olaR eMs muc3 more li?ely to consi<er t3e =.S. (/D <ays an< 1L
$roce<ures) or Sout3 Corea (1; <ays an< 1D $roce<ures). 2ven &3at may a$$ear as a beni-n
intervention on t3e surface can 3ave <amnin- conseGuences. Say t3ere is a mosGuito!net ma?er
in small!to&n Africa. Say 3e em$loys 1D $eo$le &3o to-et3er manufacture 5DD nets a &ee?.
Ty$ically> t3ese 1D em$loyees su$$ort u$&ar< of 15 relatives eac3. A 4estern -overnment!
ins$ire< $ro-ram -enerously su$$lies t3e affecte< re-ion &it3 1DD>DDD free mosGuito nets. T3is
$rom$tly $uts t3e mosGuito net manufacturer out of business> an< no& 3is 1D em$loyees can no
lon-er su$$ort t3eir 15D <e$en<ents. 0n a cou$le of years> most of t3e <onate< nets &ill be torn
an< useless> but no& t3ere is no mosGuito net ma?er to -o to. T3eyMll 3ave to -et more ai<. An<
African -overnments once a-ain -et to ab<icate t3eir res$onsibilities.
/FF
Corru)tion Disadvantage Affirmative 34<
2AC 1rontline: Corru$tion ,isa<vanta-e...................................................................................25D
Country!s$ecific %on!=niGue: Mexico........................................................................................25*
Country!s$ecific %on!=niGue: +eneEuela...................................................................................25/
Country!s$ecific %on!=niGue: Cuba...........................................................................................255
Country!s$ecific Turn: Mexico....................................................................................................258
Country!s$ecific Turn: +eneEuela............................................................................................... 25;
Country!s$ecific Turn: Cuba (1/2)..............................................................................................25.
/FF
3AC =rontline: Corru)tion Disadvantage 357
1$ .o 0in: -!eir evidence is generic a&out foreign aid" not t!e s)ecific
economic assistance )lan 'e advocate# Our s)ecific solvency evidence is
&etter t!an t!eir !ig!ly generic evidence# -!ey s!ould !ave to )rove exactly
!o' t!eir disadvantage lins to our s)ecific )lan action#
3$ Alternate Causality: -!ere are many dee) causes of corru)tion# -!e )lan
does not mae any of t!ese 'orse# ,ven if 'e don%t solve all corru)tion" 'e
mae t!e situation &etter &y solving t!e s)ecific scenarios of our !arms#
0OM+O*; A.D AC5,*MA." 78
(7Iorn> a<Iunct $rofessor at t3e Co$en3a-en 7usiness Sc3oolA Susan> :rofessor of Ba& an<
:olitical Science at Vale =niversity A #Batin America5s Corru$tion C3allen-e>' 1D/28>
3tt$://&&&.$roIect!syn<icate.or-/commentary/latin!america!s!corru$tion!c3allen-e)
T3e sources of $ublic a<ministration failure inclu<e lac? of $rofessionalism in t3e civil serviceA
va-ue> com$lex> an< confusin- le-al rulesA &ea? mana-ement of -overnment financesA $oor
<istribution of tas?s across levels of -overnmentA lac? of trans$arency in -overnment $rocesses>
an< t3e <ifficulty of 3ol<in- officials accountable for t3eir actions. 4ea?nesses in any or all of
t3ese areas create incentives for corru$tion> laEiness> an< incom$etence.
1$ Case Out'eig!s: Our Harms scenarios !ave larger im)acts t!an t!eir
Disadvantage# +y solving for our Harms" 'e are sto))ing glo&al 'ar# ,ven if
t!ey 'in t!eir im)act" it is only a localiGed civil conflict# Our )lan !as a
muc! &igger magnitude t!an t!eir disadvantage#
4$ .on-(niEue: Our s)ecific country is already very corru)t#
B6nsert country-s)ecific evidence for Cu&a" Mexico or FeneGuelaC
/FF
5$ -urn: Aid decreases corru)tion &y increasing rules and limits on
government action#
-AFA*,S" 71
0n t3is $a$er &e as? &3et3er forei-n ai< corru$ts by usin- <ata on a cross!section of <evelo$in-
countries an< instrumentin- for total ai< inflo&s. 4e fin< t3at forei-n ai< <ecreases corru$tion.
Jur results are statistically an< economically si-nificant an< robust to t3e use of <ifferent
controls. 43y mi-3t ai< <ecrease corru$tionR Jne can a<vance several $ossibilities. 1irst>
forei-n ai< may be associate< &it3 rules an< con<itions t3at limit t3e <iscretion of t3e reci$ient
country5s officials> t3us <ecreasin- corru$tionKa con<itionality effect. Secon<> if forei-n ai<
alleviates $ublic revenue s3orta-es an< facilitates increase< salaries for $ublic em$loyees it may
<iminis3 t3e su$$ly of 2D corru$tion by $ublic officialsKa liGui<ity effect. Jne im$ortant caveat
is in or<er. Since most actual ai< flo&s are <riven by motives ot3er t3an t3e economic an<
$olitical $erformance of reci$ient countries> as $ointe< out in Alesina an< ,ollar (2DD2)> one
cannot infer from our results t3at &3en more ai< is observe< lo&er corru$tion &ill follo&.
0nstea< &e s3oul< inter$ret our results as $ointin- to t3e $otentially beneficial im$act of ai<
inflo&s on corru$tion once current biases in ai< allocation are &ee<e< out.
2$ .o 0in: -!eir evidence is not causal# Countries receiving aid usually
already !ave corru)tion and a lac of &usiness develo)ment#
C,.-,* =O* ;0O+A0 D,F,0O4M,.-" 11
(Casey ,unnin-A #=.S. 1orei-n Assistance an< Corru$tion: 0t5s All 6elative' D*/2.>
3tt$://&&&.c-<ev.or-/blo-/us!forei-n!assistance!an<!corru$tion!itY22Y.DYLLs!all!relative)
,evelo$ment is ris?y business. 7y its very nature> it ta?es $lace in t3e least!<evelo$e< countries
&it3 t3e least!<evelo$e< institutions> infrastructure an< economies. To t3in? t3at t3ere is a lo&
income country &it3 Eero corru$tion to &3ic3 t3e =nite< States can $rovi<e ai< is foolis3A it
<oesn5t exist at t3e 3i-3 en< of t3e income scale eit3er. (0n a<<ition to many ot3ers> 7ermu<a
an< =ru-uay bot3 score better t3an t3e =nite< States on control of corru$tion t3is year.)
/FF
8$ .on-(niEue: 4rivate &usinesses cause corru)tion" '!ic! means t!e
government 'ill &e corru)t regardless of t!e )lan#
5065S+,*;" 7<
(7ernar<o> s$ecial a<visor to t3e =%> =%,:> =%2SCJ> =%0C21A #Corru$tion in Batin America:
-ettin- $ast t3e myt3s>' */12> 3tt$://en-lis3.safe!<emocracy.or-/2DDL/D*/12/corru$tion!in!
latin!america!-ettin-!$ast!t3e!myt3s/)
T3e case of Siemens> an< ot3er similar ones> amon- t3em t3e ban?ru$tcy some years a-o of t3e
lar-est $rivate ,ominican ban? !&3ic3 absorbe< resources vital to t3e country!> as &ell as t3e
confirme< bribery carrie< out by t3e executives of a transnational lea<er in Ar-entina in or<er to
massively sell com$uteriEation to t3e $rinci$al $ublic ban?> 3ave s3o&n t3at corru$tion is not
Iust $ublic. Cor$orate corru$tion is an im$ortant $art of t3e -lobal $roblem. 0n $ractice>
corru$tion sc3emes ten< to ent&ine $ublic an< $rivate executives. =$ until 1LLL> t3e year in
&3ic3 t3e Jr-aniEation for 2conomic Coo$eration an< ,evelo$ment outla&e< corru$tion> t3e
9erman fiscal co<e> amon- ot3ers> allo&e< bribes to be &ritten off as business ex$enses. T3e
=%5s 9lobal :act sto$$e< vali<atin- corru$tion as a $rivate business issue in 2DD/> &3en it
ma<e t3e fi-3t a-ainst it t3e tent3 $rinci$le of its Co<e of Social 7usiness 6es$onsibility.
9$ -urn: Our )lan s)ecifically solves for corru)tion#
B6nsert Country-s)ecific evidence for Cu&a" Mexico or FeneGuelaC
CMSDL Core Files 2013/14 2/C Cou!try3S8eci@c #$ide!ce
/FF
Country- S )ecific .on-(niEue: Mexico 351
1$ Mexico%s government is already corru)t" taing &illions in &ri&es from
mega-cor)orations#
-6M, MA;AD6.," 13
(Tim :a<-ett> staff &riter A #Tale of T&o Corru$tos: 7raEil an< Mexico on ,ifferent
Trans$arency :at3s>'
Mexico> mean&3ile> can still loo? as if it5s in <enial about t3e entrenc3e< corru$tion t3at
accor<in- to t3e 4orl< 7an? costs t3e country LY of its trillion!<ollar 9,: eac3 year. Bast
mont3 t3e fe<eral anticorru$tion a-ency all but absolve< Mexican officials an< retail -iant
4almart K <es$ite <ee$ly <etaile< evi<ence $ublis3e< in A$ril by t3e %e& Vor? Times t3at t3e
com$any 3a< alle-e<ly $ai< -overnment a<ministrators some S25 million in bribes to unfairly
obtain $ermits an< ot3er favors. Bittle &on<er t3at business mono$olies> &3ic3 can 3ol< mar?et
s3ares as 3i-3 as L5Y> still suffocate Mexico5s economy> or t3at a <ysfunctional Iustice system
can5t rein in narcoviolence.
/FF
Country-S)ecific .on-(niEue: FeneGuela B1>3C 354
1$ FeneGuela already !as !ig! levels of corru)tion#
-6M, MA;AD6.," 13
(Tim :a<-ett> staff &riterA #Tale of T&o Corru$tos: 7raEil an< Mexico on ,ifferent Trans$arency
:at3s>'
+eneEuela5s socialist :resi<ent u-o C3TveE ro<e to $o&er 1/ years a-o <enouncin- t3e oil!ric3
nation5s e$ic corru$tion. 7ut 3is 7olivarian revolution only seems to 3ave embrace< it. To<ay>
+eneEuela is more often cite< for Sout3 America5s &orst mur<er rate> one of t3e &orl<5s 3i-3est
inflation rates> ne-li-ible forei-n investment an< a Iu<icial system subIect to el coman<ante5s
&3ims. Batin America is full of lea<ers &3o $romise to crac? <o&n on corru$tion. 43at it nee<s
is more lea<ers &3o crac? <o&n on corru$tion.
3$ .on-governmental OrganiGation re)orts )rove FeneGuela is already very
corru)t#
,0 (.6F,*SA0" 13
(#%9J: +eneEuela is t3e most corru$t country in Batin America>' 12/D5>
3tt$://&&&.eluniversal.com/nacional!y!$olitica/1212D5/n-o!veneEuela!is!t3e!most!corru$t!
country!in!latin!america)
=nli?e C3ile an< :ara-uay> &3ose corru$tion levels are t3e lo&est in Batin America> +eneEuela
ran?e< amon- t3e most corru$t nations in t3e re-ion> accor<in- to %9J Trans$arency
0nternational (T0) annual re$ort> release< in 9ermany on 4e<nes<ay. T3e re$ort com$rises 1;8
countries. ,enmar?> 1inlan<> an< %e& Oeelan< obtaine< t3e 3i-3est Gualification> LD out of 1DD
$oints> A1: ex$laine<.
1$ -!e FeneGuelan government c!ronically misuses funds#
*O+,*-S A.D DA;A" 11
As re$orte< in t3e 0n<ex> $olitical interference in +eneEuela5s Iu<icial system 3as become
routine> an< corru$tion is ram$ant. T3e lan<sca$e in Caracas an< else&3ere in t3e country is
littere< &it3 3alf!finis3e<> $ublicly fun<e< infrastructure an< 3ousin- $roIects. T3e -overnment
fun<s nee<e< to com$lete t3em often <isa$$ear. As -overnment ex$an<e< un<er C3aveE>
/FF
corru$tion became institutionaliEe<. C3aveE <ouble< t3e siEe of t3e $ublic sector. . . . T3e tra-ic
result is t3at +eneEuela is no& one of t3e most <an-erous countries of t3e &orl<. Accor<in- to
t3e +eneEuelan +iolence Jbservatory> in 2D12 nearly 22>DDD $eo$le &ere mur<ere<.
/FF
Country- S )ecific .on-(niEue: Cu&a 355
1$ Closed" mono)olistic decision-maing in Cu&a guarantees corru)tion
1 .,/S" 11
43ile t3e non!$rofit Trans$arency 0nternational says Cuba ran?s better t3an avera-e &orl<&i<e
in a measure of corru$tion an< is t3ir< best in Batin America an< t3e Caribbean> -raft 3ere can
be more corrosive because t3e state controls nearly t3e entire economy. Com$anies &antin- to
<o business &it3 Cuba must $resent t3eir cases <irectly to mi<level -overnment officials &3o
may ma?e about S2D a mont3. T3ere is no o$en bi<<in- for contracts an< <ecisions -o
unex$laine<> &3ic3 businessmen say o$ens t3e $ossibility of -raft. A Sout3 American im$orter
&it3 a <eca<e of ex$erience sellin- foo< $ro<ucts to Cuba before 3e &as ex$elle< for alle-e<
corru$tion in 2DDL sai< t3e $ayoffs can ta?e many forms: from t3e -ift of a bit of -as money> a
free meal or a com$uter $en <rive for a relatively Iunior Ninternational $urc3aser>N to free tri$s
abroa<> com$uters> flat!screen T+s or lar-e <e$osits of cas3 in forei-n ban? accounts for senior
officials. NT3e forms of $ersuasion ! letMs call it t3at ! are nearly infinite>N 3e sai<> a<<in- t3at t3e
system is so $ervasive t3at Na businessman must al&ays 3ave a &a< of cas3 to stuff t3e $oc?et of
a -uayabera>N t3e loose!fittin- tra<itional Cuban <ress s3irt.
/FF
Country- S )ecific -urn: Mexico 352
1$ -!e Mexican drug trade generates c!ronic corru)tion#
4,*56.S A.D 40AC6DO" 17
for 0ntelli-ence
4e crin-e at ne&s stories <etailin- t3e arrest of a #$oEolero' (ste&!ma?er)> a ?iller &3o
<is$oses of 3is victims5 bo<y $arts in barrels of aci<> or t3e <iscovery of a mass -rave containin-
t3e remains of countless victims <ecom$osin- un<er a layer of lime. 7ut t3ese an< ot3er
-ruesome tactics are not ne&. 43at is bot3 ne& an< <isturbin- are t3e sustaine< efforts of
Mexican ,TJs to use violence as a tool to un<ermine $ublic su$$ort for t3e -overnment5s
counter!<ru- efforts. Traffic?ers 3ave ma<e a concerte< effort to sen< a $ublic messa-e t3rou-3
t3eir bloo<y cam$ai-n of violence. T3ey no& often resort to leavin- t3e be3ea<e< an< mutilate<
bo<ies of t3eir torture< victims out for $ublic <is$lay &it3 t3e intent of intimi<atin- -overnment
officials an< t3e $ublic ali?e. :articularly &orrisome are t3ose tactics inten<e< to intimi<ate
$olice an< $ublic officials> an< la&!abi<in- citiEens. T3e intimi<ation of $ublic an< $olice
officials t3rou-3 violence or t3e t3reat of violence 3as a more insi<ious si<e. %ot all corru$tion
is a clear cut> money!for!coo$eration> ne-otiation: t3e intimi<ation of officials> t3reats a-ainst
t3eir lives or t3eir families5 lives> is a muc3 more &i<es$rea< an< effective tactic> an< li?ely
accounts for a $lurality of corru$t la& enforcement officials in Mexico.
/FF
Country- S )ecific -urn: FeneGuela 358
1$ 4romoting o)enness and trans)arency solves corru)tion#
5065S+,*;" 7<
(7ernar<o> s$ecial a<visor to t3e =%> =%,:> =%2SCJ> =%0C21A #Corru$tion in Batin America:
-ettin- $ast t3e myt3s>' */12> 3tt$://en-lis3.safe!<emocracy.or-/2DDL/D*/12/corru$tion!in!
latin!america!-ettin-!$ast!t3e!myt3s/)
Jne of t3e ?eys to stan<in- u$ to corru$tion is broa<enin- t3e $ossibilities for social control.
T3is means> amon- ot3er t3in-s> maximiEin- t3e <e-ree of bot3 $ublic an< $rivate mana-ement
trans$arency an< installin- institutionaliEe< mec3anisms for t3e continuous $artici$ation of t3e
$o$ulation. T3e results obtaine< from Batin America5s $ioneerin- <evelo$ments> suc3 as :orto
Ale-re5s $artici$atory munici$al bu<-et> &3ic3 3as become a -lobal $oint of reference on t3e
matter an< 3as s$rea< to 3un<re<s of cities in t3e re-ion in <iverse forms> are si-nificant. T3e
com$lete o$enin-!u$ of t3e bu<-ets> t3e citiEens5 analysis of t3em an< t3eir <irect selection of
$riorities> an< t3eir accountability> 3as -reatly im$rove< local mana-ement an< noticeably
re<uce< t3e levels of corru$tion an< clientelism. !
/FF
Country- S )ecific -urn: Cu&a B1>3C 359
1$ Castro%s reforms can%t fig!t corru)tion alone H t!e (#S# needs to o)en t!e
em&argo in order to )us! Cu&a to'ard freedom#
46CCO.," 11
(Tom> Senior 1ello& an< ,e$uty ,irector of 1orei-n :olicy at 7roo?in-s 0nstituteA #J$enin- to
avana>' 1/1;> 3tt$://&&&.broo?in-s.e<u/researc3/$a$ers/2D1*/D1/o$enin-!to!3avana)
=n<er 6aul Castro> t3e Cuban -overnment 3as continue< to un<erta?e a number of im$ortant
reforms to mo<erniEe its economy> lessen its <e$en<ence on u-o C3aveE5s +eneEuela> an<
allo& citiEens to ma?e t3eir o&n <ecisions about t3eir economic futures. T3e $rocess of reform>
3o&ever> is -ra<ual> 3i-3ly controlle< an< s3ort on yiel<in- -ame!c3an-in- results t3at &oul<
i-nite t3e economy. 1ailure to ta$ ne& offs3ore oil an< -as fiel<s an< a-ricultural <ama-e from
urricane San<y <ealt furt3er setbac?s. 0n<e$en<ent civil society remains confine<> re$resse<
an< 3arasse<> an< strict me<ia an< internet controls severely restrict t3e flo& of information.
T3e Castro -eneration is slo&ly 3an<in- $o&er over to t3e next -eneration of $arty an< military
lea<ers &3o &ill <etermine t3e $ace an< sco$e of t3e reform $rocess. T3ese tren<s su--est t3at
an inflection $oint is a$$roac3in- an< t3at no& is t3e time to try a ne& $ara<i-m for <e!icin-
t3e froEen conflict. T3e embar-o K t3e most com$lex an< strictest embar-o a-ainst any country
in t3e &orl< K 3as 3an<cuffe< t3e =nite< States an< 3as $revente< it from 3avin- any $ositive
influence on t3e islan<5s <evelo$ments. 0t &ill serve American interests better to learn 3o& to
&or? &it3 t3e emer-in- Cuban lea<ers &3ile simultaneously ram$in- u$ <irect =.S. outreac3 to
t3e Cuban $eo$le.
3$ Allo'ing Cu&a to com)ete in t!e (#S# et!anol maret 'ill ena&le Cu&a to
'een itself off FeneGuelan assistance" &uilding democracy#
A.D,*S,." 8
(Martin 2<&in> lon-!time 3uman ri-3ts activist an< ne&s corres$on<ent in Batin America> is t3e
e<itor of a =nite< States A-ency for 0nternational ,evelo$ment (=SA0,) stu<y on $ossible
electoral transitions in CubaA #S&eet J$$ortunity: 2t3anol an< a 9ran< 7ar-ain for Cuban
,emocracy>' D8/D/> 3tt$://&&&.offne&s.info/verArticulo.$3$Rconteni<o0,b.D;5)
0n or<er to $romote Cuba5s true in<e$en<ence an< <emocratiEation> t3e 7us3 A<ministration
s3oul< si-nal its &illin-ness to imme<iately inclu<e Cuba as a $referre< member of its
3emis$3eric bio!fuels alliance> once t3e islan< si-nals it is on t3e roa< to <emocratic reform>
inclu<in- t3e res$ect for 3uman ri-3ts. 7y removin- t3e tariff on su-ar base< et3anol an< -ivin-
Cuban!$ro<uce< et3anol $otential eGuality of o$$ortunity &it3 =.S. $ro<ucers of corn!base<
et3anolK&3o no& receive a fe<erally!subsi<iEe< 51!cents a!-allon tax cre<it> Con-ress an< t3e
$resi<ent &oul< sen< a stron- messa-e about 4as3in-ton5s &illin-ness to <o everyt3in- it can
to $romote bot3 Cuban <emocracy an< in<e$en<ence. 6at3er t3an <e$en<in- on C3aveE5s
refineries to ma?e Cuban ba-asse into useable fuel> access to =.S. mar?ets &ill 3el$ -ive Cuban
entre$reneurs t3e incentive to buil< et3anol $lants in Cuba> a<<in- to t3at country5s revenues
an< em$loyment base.
/FF
/FF
Country- S )ecific -urn: Cu&a B3>3C 35<
1$ 6solating Cu&a t!roug! em&argoes maes t!e corru)t government more
)o'erful#
+*OO56.;S 6.S-6-(-," <
(:roIect <irecte< by Carlos :ascual> +ice :resi<ent an< ,irector of 1orei-n :olicyA an< +ic?i
u<<leston> +isitin- 1ello& at T3e 7roo?in-s 0nstitutionA 7roo?in-s :roIect on =.S. :olicy
To&ar< a Cuba in Transition> #C=7A: A %e& :olicy of Critical an< Constructive 2n-a-ement>'
A$ril> 3tt$://&&&.broo?in-s.e<u/`/me<ia/researc3/files/re$orts/2DDL///cuba/D/1*Zcuba)
2n-a-ement <oes not mean a$$roval of t3e Cuban -overnment5s $olicies> nor s3oul< it in<icate
a &is3 to control internal <evelo$ments in CubaA le-itimate c3an-es in Cuba &ill only come from
t3e actions of Cubans. 0f t3e =nite< States is to $lay a $ositive role in Cuba5s future> it must not
in<ul-e in 3ostile r3etoric nor obstruct a <ialo-ue on issues t3at &oul< a<vance <emocracy>
Iustice> an< 3uman ri-3ts as &ell as our broa<er national interests. :erversely> t3e $olicy of
see?in- to isolate Cuba> rat3er t3an ac3ievin- its obIective> 3as contribute< to un<erminin- t3e
&ell!bein- of t3e Cuban $eo$le an< to ero<in- =.S. influence in Cuba an< Batin America. 0t 3as
reinforce< t3e Cuban -overnment5s $o&er over its citiEens by increasin- t3eir <e$en<ence on it
for every as$ect of t3eir liveli3oo<. 7y slo&in- t3e flo& of i<eas an< information> &e 3ave
un&ittin-ly 3el$e< Cuban state security <elay Cuba5s $olitical an< economic evolution to&ar< a
more o$en an< re$resentative -overnment. An<> by too ti-3tly embracin- Cuba5s brave
<issi<ents> &e 3ave $rovi<e< t3e Cuban aut3orities &it3 an excuse to <enounce t3eir le-itimate
efforts to buil< a more o$en society.
#uro8ea! '!io! Cou!ter8la! 1/1
0#1
,uro)ean (nion Counter)lan .egative 327
1%C S3ell: 2uro$ean =nion Counter$lan....................................................................................281
2%C 2xtensions: A/t "1 #:ermutation'.......................................................................................28*
2%C 2xtensions: A/t "2 #Solvency ,eficit'.................................................................................28/
:lan!s$ecific Solvency: Mexico Security (1/2)............................................................................285
:lan!s$ecific Solvency: +eneEuela ,emocracy............................................................................28;
:lan!s$ecific Solvency: Cuba 2t3anol (1/2)................................................................................28.
2%C 2xtensions: A/t "* #0nternational Actor 1iat'....................................................................2;D
2%C 2xtensions: A/t "/ #economic Crisis :revents Solvency'...................................................2;1
2%C 2xtensions: A/t "5 #%o Timeframe for Solvency'...............................................................2;2
2%C 2xtensions: A/t "8 #2uro$ean Bea<ers3i$ Turn'...............................................................2;*
T2S0S: 0nstea< of t3e =.S. economically en-a-in- &it3 Batin America> &e &ill ar-ue
t3at t3e 2uro$ean =nion s3oul< a<o$t t3e exact $lan action a<vocate< by t3e
affirmative> instea<. 0n t3is &ay> &e as a ne-ative team are testin- t3e a-ent s$ecifie<
in t3e resolution> namely t3e =.S. fe<eral -overnment. T3e 2uro$ean =nion is
actually in a better $osition to <o t3e $lan t3an t3e =.S.> because of t3e =.S.5s
3istorical mista?es an< mistreatment of Batin American countries. An< finally> 2.=.
action &oul< avoi< our <isa<vanta-es> ma?in- t3e counter$lan net beneficial.
0#1
1.C S!ell: ,uro)ean (nion Counter)lan 321
1$ -ext: B6nsert 4lan-S)ecific -extC
3$ Com)etition: .et +enefits# -!e Counter)lan is com)etitive 'it! t!e )lan
&ecause it does not use t!e (nited States federal government" '!ic! means
t!at all of our disadvantages are net-&enefits to t!e ,uro)ean (nion acting
&y itself# Foting for t!e Counter)lan solves all or most of t!e case Harms
'!ile avoiding all ris of t!e disadvantages#
1$ Solvency: -!e ,uro)ean (nion is in an ideal )osition to engage 0atin
America economically# -!e ,#(# can actually effect a su)erior )artners!i)
'it! 0atin America &ecause it isn%t &urdened &y a !istory of su&ordination
and failure in t!e region" as is t!e (#S#
M,.,.D,D" 11
(1ernan<oA economist an< $rinci$al of T3e Cor<oba 9rou$ 0nternational BBCA
3tt$://&&&.t3ecommentator.com/article/*/../t3eZeastZisZrisin-ZinZlatinZamerica)
1or C3ilean $olitical scientist 2steban +alenEuela> of t3e Alberto urta<o =niversity> t3e bi!
re-ional summit re$resents an o$$ortunity for Batin America. #T3is is $robably t3e i<eal time to
as? (t3e 2=) to reac3 a more -lobal un<erstan<in- an< ma?e free tra<e an< a-ricultural barriers
a t&o!&ay street t3at &ill facilitate investments an< allo& Batin Americans to invest in t3eir
<e$resse< mar?ets>' urta<o sai< in an intervie& &it3 0:S. 0t is an o$$ortunity t3at Batin
America must> 3o&ever> seiEe #&it3out arro-ance'> as t3e current cycle of 3i-3 $rices of co$$er>
-ol<> natural -as> oil an< ot3er ra& materials in t3e re-ion &on5t last forever. #T3ere are
in<icators t3at reveal t3at C3ina5s economic -ro&t3 is ]slo&in- <o&n5 . . . . 0t coul< be a turnin-
$oint for t3e re-ion5s relations &it3 2uro$e> but it &ill only benefit Batin America an< t3e
Caribbean if t3e 2= un<erstan<s t3at it must treat its counter$art as an eGual . . . one nee< only
loo? at Batin America5s controversial 3istory &it3 t3e =nite< States> #&3ere our re-ion 3as
tra<itionally been treate< (by t3e =.S.) as its bac?yar<> an< rele-ate< to a minor> su$$ortin-
role>' 3e note<. #43ic3 is &3y 0 believe t3at if 2uro$e un<erstan<s t3at it must <eal &it3 Batin
America on eGual terms> it &on5t be 3ar< to overcome any $roblems t3at may arise in t3is
0#1
inte-ration $rocess>' t3e le-islator tol< 0:S. #4it3 t3e =nite< States> t3e $ossibilities for
inte-ration ran t3eir course an< bore no fruits. 2uro$e no& re$resents an o$$ortunity t3at
cannot be $asse< u$>' %avarro conclu<e<. T3e summit> &3ose a-en<a focuses on buil<in- an<
stren-t3enin- #a strate-ic alliance for sustainable <evelo$ment'
0#1
4lan- S )ecific -exts 323
A) Mexican Security:
-!e ,uro)ean (nion s!ould su&stantially increase its economic
engagement to'ard Mexico &y )roviding financial assistance to Mexico for
violence )revention )rograms near t!e &order &et'een t!e (nited States
and Mexico#
B) Venezuelan Democracy:
engagement to'ard FeneGuela &y )roviding economic aid tied to verifia&le
im)rovements in FeneGuelan election monitoring and election re)orting#
C) Cuban Ethanol:
engagement to'ard Cu&a &y removing all &arriers to t!e im)ortation of
sugar-&ased et!anol from Cu&a into ,uro)e" and fully guarantee maret
access 'it! funding#
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t ?1 @4ermutationA 321
-!ey )resent a )ermutation" !ave &ot! t!e (#S# and t!e ,#(# act# -!at isn%t
a &etter o)tion t!an t!e Counter)lan alone#
1$ -!e )ermutation does not get dou&le solvency# -!ere is no &enefit to
doing it t'ice as muc!" &ecause one )lan is enoug! to )revent t!eir Harms
im)acts from !a))ening#
3$ -!e 4ermutation still lins to our disadvantages# -!e affirmative claims
t!at t!e (#S# can argue t!at t!e ,#(# is res)onsi&le for t!e )lan" &ut t!e (#S#
federal government is a full )artner 'it! t!e ,#(# in t!e )ermutation# -!ey
can%t even credi&ly argue t!at t!e (#S# 'ould give t!e ,#(# t!e credit for t!e
)lan" let alone '!et!er suc! a declaration 'ould avoid t!e disad lins#
1$ -!eir evidence and t!e 4ermutation don%t matc!# -!e =0A.A;A. A.D
CO.0,: evidence im)lies efficiencies ac!ieved t!roug! coo)eration" &ut
t!e 4ermutation Iust !as &ot! governments act at t!e same time#
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t ?3 @Solvency DeficitA 324
-!ey say t!at t!e Counter)lan doesn%t fully solve t!e Harms" &ut # # #
1$ -!e ,uro)ean (nion is in a &etter )osition t!an t!e (nited States to give
economic assistance to 0atin America &ecause of a long" failed !istory of
(#S# H 0atin American )artners!i)# ,xtend our M,.,.D,D evidence#
3$ ;ood is good enoug!# /e do not !ave to 'in t!at 'e solve 177N of t!e
Affirmative%s Harms" only t!at 'e do enoug! to )revent t!e 'orst of t!eir
im)acts# /e are 'inning a !uge ris of our disadvantages" '!ic! out'eig!s
even a large solvency deficit#
3$ /e !ave s)ecific solvency for t!eir Affirmative#
[Insert Plans!eci"ic Sol#ency$
1$ ,#(# economic assistance to 0atin America )romotes greater
coo)eration" im)roving solvency#
*OSA0,S" 13
(Jsval<o> ,irector of t3e 0nternational Tra<e an< 0nte-ration ,ivision of 2CBACA #Batin
America an< t3e Caribbean an< t3e 2uro$ean =nion: strivin- for a rene&e< $artners3i$>' 1eb>
3tt$://&&&.eclac.cl/$ublicaciones/xml/2//8*82/BACZ2uro$eanZ=nionZstrivin-ZforZrene&e
<Z$artners3i$.$<f)
T3e a-reements ne-otiate< by t3e 2uro$ean =nion an< t3e =nite< States are -enerally
com$re3ensive an< inclu<e not only removin- tariffs on t3e maIority of -oo<s but also
commitments on tra<e in services> investment> -overnment $rocurement an< intellectual
$ro$erty> amon- ot3ers. T3ese commitments usually -o beyon< t3ose a-ree< to by t3e 2uro$ean
=nion> t3e =nite< States or Batin America an< t3e Caribbean in 4orl< Tra<e Jr-aniEation
(4TJ) A-reements. T3ere are also si-nificant <ifferences: ! T3e a-reements ne-otiate< by t3e
2uro$ean =nion aim ex$licitly to stren-t3en re-ional inte-ration mec3anisms in Batin America
an< t3e Caribbean. 1or exam$le> t3e a-reements &it3 Central America an< CA601J6=M
inclu<e various $rovisions to stren-t3en economic inte-ration in bot3 sub re-ions an< t3e
a-reement &it3 Colombia an< :eru s$ecifies accession by ot3er An<ean Community countries
as an ex$licit obIective. ! T3e Association A-reements ne-otiate< by t3e 2uro$ean =nion are
usually more com$re3ensive an< inclu<e $rovisions on $olitical <ialo-ue an< coo$eration on a
broa< array of to$ics a$art from tra<e (e.-. culture> e<ucation> ener-y> science an< tec3nolo-y>
tourism> etc.). T3e 2uro$ean =nion!CA601J6=M A-reement inclu<es asymmetric
liberaliEation commitments -ivin- $referential treatment to t3e latter5s -oo<s an< services> in
a<<ition to coo$eration commitments for ca$acity buil<in- in <ifferent areas.
0#1
0#1
4lan-S)ecific Solvency: Mexic o Security B1>3C 325
1$ -!e ,uro)ean (nion already !as a frame'or for assisting Mexico 'it!
security issues#
CO(.C60 O= -H, ,(*O4,A. (.6O." 17
(#M2a0CJ F 2=6J:2A% =%0J% ST6AT290C :A6T%26S0: @J0%T 2a2C=T0+2 :BA%A'
5/18> 3tt$://&&&.consilium.euro$a.eu/ue<ocs/cmsZ,ata/<ocs/$ress<ata/en/er/11//8;.$<f)
T3e establis3ment of a Strate-ic :artners3i$ bet&een Mexico an< t3e 2= reflects t3e rea<iness
of bot3 $layers to stren-t3en coor<ination on matters of -lobal im$ortance an< furt3er intensify
t3eir $olitical> economic an< coo$eration lin?s. T3e -ui<in- obIectives of t3e Strate-ic
:artners3i$ bet&een Mexico an< t3e 2= are t3e consoli<ation of <emocracy an< t3e rule of la&A
t3e $rotection of 3uman ri-3tsA sustainable economic <evelo$mentA eGual o$$ortunities an< a
mutual commitment to fi-3tin- $overty an< social exclusion. To fulfill t3ose obIectives> bot3
$arties a-ree to coo$erate on t3ree levels. 1irst> Mexico an< t3e 2= &ill &or? to-et3er at
bilateral> re-ional an< multilateral level on -lobal issues of common interest. Secon<ly> t3rou-3
t3is Strate-ic :artners3i$ Mexico an< t3e 2= can exten< t3eir <ynamic lin?s to t3ir< countries
an< re-ions in &3ic3 t3e t&o $arties 3ave s3are< interests> suc3 as Batin America an< t3e
Caribbean. ConseGuently> Mexico an< t3e 2= un<erta?e to stren-t3en t3e areas of $olitical
<ialo-ue in t3e re-ion> encoura-in- bi!re-ional <ialo-ue> es$ecially &it3 t3e 6io 9rou$> at Batin
America an< Caribbean!2uro$ean =nion Summits an< $romotin- trian-ular coo$eration via t3e
Mesoamerican 0nte-ration an< ,evelo$ment :roIect. Mexico an< t3e 2= &ill also ex$lore
$ossibilities on en-a-in- in trian-ular coo$eration &it3 ot3er re-ions of t3e &orl<> suc3 as
Africa. 7ot3 :arties &ill also ta?e a<vanta-e of t3eir ex$erience on electoral matters to
collaborate &it3 t3ir< countries. T3ir<ly> Mexico an< t3e 2= &ill ta?e for&ar< t3e most
si-nificant bilateral subIects on t3eir a-en<a: economic an< tra<e relationsA coo$eration in t3e
fiel< of t3e environment an< sustainable <evelo$ment> in $articular combatin- climate c3an-eA
security mattersA 3uman ri-3tsA e<ucation an< cultureA science> tec3nolo-y an< innovationA
re-ional <evelo$ment> social co3esion> statistics an< $ublic 3ealt3.
0#1
4lan-S)ecific Solvency: Mexic o Security B3>3C 322
3$ Mexico and t!e ,#(# are currently coo)erating on com&ating organiGed
crime and cartel violence#
CO(.C60 O= -H, ,(*O4,A. (.6O." 17
(#M2a0CJ F 2=6J:2A% =%0J% ST6AT290C :A6T%26S0: @J0%T 2a2C=T0+2 :BA%A'
5/18> 3tt$://&&&.consilium.euro$a.eu/ue<ocs/cmsZ,ata/<ocs/$ress<ata/en/er/11//8;.$<f)
Mexico an< t3e 2uro$ean =nion reco-niEe t3e <estabilisin- effect of or-aniEe< crime on States
an< societies an< a-ree t3at en3ancin- international coo$eration is a ?ey means of combatin-
t3is $3enomenon efficiently. T3e :alermo Convention an< its su$$lementary :rotocols $rovi<e
t3e -eneral frame&or? for <ealin- &it3 t3is $3enomenon. T3e =nite< %ations Convention
a-ainst Corru$tion (Meri<a Convention)> &3ic3 focuses on combatin- corru$tion> also $rovi<es
invaluable su$$ort for increasin- t3e efficiency of t3e fi-3t a-ainst or-aniEe< crime. T3e
strate-ic <ialo-ue bet&een Mexico an< t3e 2= &ill aim at Iointly $romotin- mec3anisms for
effective im$lementation of t3ose instruments. 0n t3e frame&or? of t3e Conference of States
:arty to t3e :alermo Convention> t3e 2= an< Mexico &ill also see? t3e necessary consensus for
establis3in- a mec3anism for revie&in- t3e im$lementation of t3e Convention an< its :rotocols
t3at is im$artial> effective> multilateral an< res$ects StatesM soverei-nty. T3e ultimate obIective is
t3at t3e mec3anism contributes to ensurin- t3e full a$$lication an< vali<ity of t3ese
instruments. Accor<in- to 6esolution n. 1;L a<o$te< by t3e =nite< %ations 9eneral Assembly
on ,ecember 1. 2DDL> Mexico an< t3e 2= &ill $ress Iointly for furt3er $olitical commitment by
t3e international community to t3e fi-3t a-ainst or-aniEe< crime by $romotin- t3e universality
an< full im$lementation of t3e :alermo Convention an< its t3ree su$$lementary :rotocols to
$revent t3e smu--lin- of mi-rants> traffic?in- in 3uman bein-s an< illicit manufacturin-
traffic?in- in firearms> bot3 &it3in an< outsi<e t3e =% frame&or?.
0#1
4lan-S)ecific Solvency: FeneGuela Democracy 328
1$ -!e ,#(# !as esta&lis!ed ties 'it! t!e ne' FeneGuelan government for
economic assistance#
F,.,D(,0A.A0:S6S" 11
(6yan Mallett!Juttrim> #+eneEuelaMs Ma<uro Conclu<es #Successful' 2uro$ean TourA' 8/2D>>
3tt$://veneEuelanalysis.com/ne&s/L;/1)
=$on com$letin- a series of 3i-3!level tal?s in 1rance> :ortu-al an< 0taly> securin- a sle& of ne&
bilateral a-reements t3is &ee?> +eneEuelan $resi<ent %icolas Ma<uro <escribe< 3is visit to
2uro$e as $ro<ucin- #excellent results'. After meetin- &it3 3is 1renc3 counter$art :resi<ent
1rancois ollan<e on t3e final <ay of 3is tri$> Ma<uro announce< a #ne& $3ase' in t3e
relations3i$ bet&een t3e t&o countries. Ma<uro state< t3at a #strate-ic alliance' &oul< be
forme< bet&een +eneEuela an< 1rance. Accor<in- to t3e +eneEuelan $resi<ent> t3e relations3i$
bet&een :aris an< Caracas coul< act as an #en-ine' to $romote coo$eration bet&een 2uro$e an<
Batin America. 7ot3 lea<ers state< t3at t3e #alliance' &oul< focus on stren-t3enin- economic
ties. #T3e $artners3i$ coul< 3el$ establis3 closer ties bet&een t3e 2uro$ean =nion an< Batin
America>' Ma<uro state<.
3$ -!e ,uro)ean (nion is successful in )romoting democracy in 0atin
America#
*OSA0,S" 13
<Z$artners3i$.$<f)
T3e strate-ic $artners3i$ bet&een Batin America an< t3e Caribbean an< t3e 2uro$ean =nion
be-an <urin- t3e $resi<ential summit 3el< in 6io <e @aneiro in 1LLL. Since t3en> biannual
meetin-s 3ave serve< to monitor $ro-ress to&ar<s inte-ration an< coo$eration bet&een t3e t&o
re-ions. A ?ey an< constant issue &as economic an< commercial inte-ration bet&een t3e t&o
mar?ets t3rou-3 $artners3i$ a-reements bet&een t3e 2uro$ean =nion an< CA601J6=M>
C3ile> Mexico> Central America> Colombia an< :eru. T3e 3i-3!level bilateral meetin-s also
su$$orte< coo$eration in ot3er ?ey areas for economic an< social <evelo$ment suc3 as
<emocracy an< 3uman ri-3ts> stren-t3enin- multilateral a$$roac3es to fosterin- $eace> stability
an< res$ect for international la&> terrorism> <ru-s an< or-aniEe< crime> t3e environment>
ener-y> -ro&t3 an< em$loyment> t3e fi-3t a-ainst $overty> ineGuality an< social exclusion>
coo$eration for <evelo$ment an< international finance> mi-ration an< ?no&le<-e s3arin- an<
trainin- (3i-3er e<ucation> researc3> <evelo$ment an< innovation science an< tec3nolo-y>
culture).
0#1
4lan-S)ecific Solvency: Cu&a ,t!anol B1>3C 329
1$ -!e ,#(# is t!e most effective agency for colla&orating on climate and
environmental issues due to trade and economic leverage#
*OSA0,S" 13
<Z$artners3i$.$<f)
T3ere is a &in<o& of o$$ortunity to reinvi-orate t3e strate-ic $artners3i$ bet&een Batin
America an< t3e Caribbean an< t3e 2uro$ean =nion: k 0n an international context of lo& -ro&t3
in t3e 2uro$ean =nion an< sustaine< -ro&t3 in Batin America an< t3e Caribbean> t3e re-ional
mar?et re$resents a maIor o$$ortunity for 2uro$ean ex$orters an< investors. 0n turn> t3e
2uro$ean =nion remains a maIor <estination for Batin American ex$orters> as t3e lar-est
inte-rate< mar?et in t3e &orl< an< &it3 t3e 3i-3est $er ca$ita income. 0n a<<ition> t3e
2uro$ean =nion $ro<uces multi$le -oo<s an< services &3ic3 are im$ortant as $ro<uctive in$uts
in t3e re-ion an< increase t3e com$etitiveness of its $ro<ucers. T3us> t3e 2uro$ean =nion is
essential for t3e transfer of tec3nolo-y an< ?no&le<-e to t3e re-ion. k 9iven t3e 3i-3 <e-ree of
com$lementarity bet&een t3e ex$ort $rofiles of t3e t&o re-ions> t3ere is si-nificant $otential to
buil< an< stren-t3en bi!re-ional value c3ains. k %o less im$ortant> 2uro$ean firms are -lobal
lea<ers in t3e areas of environmental $rotection> climate c3an-e an< cor$orate social
res$onsibility. 1rom t3is $ers$ective> stren-t3enin- business alliances bet&een 2uro$e an<
Batin America an< t3e Caribbean can 3el$ foster -ro&t3 &it3 eGuity an< less carbon!intensive
com$etitiveness> &3ic3 s3oul< -ui<e $ublic $olicy in Batin America an< t3e Caribbean in t3e
comin- years.
0#1
4lan-S)ecific Solvency: Cu&a ,t!anol B3>3C 32<
3$ ,#(# engagement 'it! Cu&a solves domestic economic develo)ment#
-D6F,06S" 72
(+assili?i> &or?in- to&ar< a Masters ,e-ree in 2uro$ean Stu<ies at t3e Colle-e of 2uro$e>
7russels cam$usA #T3e 2uro$ean =nion5s 1orei-n :olicy To&ar<s Cuba: 0t 0s Time to Tie t3e
Cnot>' Marc3> &&&.miami.e<u/eucenter/TEivelisfinal.$<f)
Consi<erin- t3at t3e 2= 3as alrea<y investe< <i$lomatic efforts an< millions of euros in t3e
3o$e of $romotin- t3e <evelo$ment of better livin- con<itions for t3e Cuban $o$ulation> an<
consi<erin- t3at t3e 2= is an i<eal $artner for t3e $romotion of a $eaceful transition in Cuba>
t3an?s to its economic an< $olitical ex$ertise> t3e current stan<still s3oul< be seiEe< as an
o$$ortunity for t3e 2= to re!evaluate its $olicy to&ar<s Cuba an< <efine an a$$roac3 t3at is
aime< at #consoli<atin- t3e economic an< social c3an-es> t3at are easin- t3e &ay for a $eaceful
transition.' T3e 2uro$ean Social Committee 3a< alrea<y encoura-e< suc3 an a$$roac3 in
1LL;: #T3e 2uro$ean =nion is $robably t3e $artner in t3e best $osition economically> $olitically
an< culturally to ma?e a multi!$arty Cuba a full member of t3e international community a-ain.
T3is is a necessary con<ition to facilitate t3e $rocess of c3an-e. 0t is Guite clear t3at t3e attem$ts
to isolate Cuba internationally 3ave not 3el$e< to reform t3e country5s structures but 3ave>
rat3er> reinforce< its intransi-ence to c3an-e.' A ne& 2uro$ean forei-n $olicy to&ar<s Cuba
t3at inclu<es t3is country in a -eo-ra$3ically &i<e an< lon-!term frame&or? of coo$eration> &ill
si-nificantly ai< t3e 0slan< to recover from t3e economic 3ar<s3i$s an< create a more
<emocratic $olitical system. T3e 2uro$ean =nion &oul< -ain -reater cre<ibility in its forei-n
$olicy a$$roac3 to&ar<s Cuba> not only because it &oul< eliminate t3e inconsistencies &3ic3
3ave been <escribe<> but also because it &ill 3ave <efine< an 2= $olicy in<e$en<ent of t3at of
t3e =nite< States an< aime< at ta?in- $roactive an< effective measures to -ui<e> rat3er t3an
recommen<> a $eaceful transition in Cuba.
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t ?1 @6nternational Actor =iatA 387
-!ey say t!at international fiat is illegitimate# ;rou) t!e A t!roug! D
su&)oints#
1$ Counter-inter)retation: -!e .egative s!ould &e allo'ed foreign
government counter)lans# -!is limits out .;Os and an infinite regression
on agents t!at t!eir fiat t!eory arguments are attacing#
3$ A large num&er of )ossi&le agents is inevita&le# /it!in t!e (#S#
government t!ere are !undreds of agencies" and t!eir inter)retation allo's
any com&ination of states or domestic actors# -!eir inter)retation does not
solve limits#
1$ =air ground division: 6nternational actor counter)lans are necessary to
test t!e )!rase @(nited States federal governmentA in t!e resolution and
force t!e Affirmative to !ave a reason '!y t!e (#S# is t!e rig!t actor# -!e
Affirmative s!ouldn%t &e allo'ed to get a'ay 'it! an untested agent in t!e
resolution '!ic! t!ey are asing you to affirm#
4$ ,ducation: /!ic! government s!ould give aid is a core Euestion on a
foreign assistance to)ic# 0imiting out ot!er countries means 'e 'ill never
com)are different systems of aid or t!eir effectiveness" '!ic! decreases
to)ic-s)ecific education#
5$ -!is is not a voting issue# At 'orst" you reIect t!e Counter)lan and
evaluate t!e round as t!e Affirmative against our Disadvantages# -!ere is
no unfairness to t!e Affirmative H 'e !ave s)ent as muc! time on t!is
argument as t!ey !ave#
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t ?4 @,conomic Crisis 4revents SolvencyA
381
-!ey say t!at t!e economic crisis in ,uro)e )revents t!e ,#(# from solving#
/e disagree#
1$ -!e ,( can use ex)eriences from recent economic trou&les to )rovide t!e
&est assistance to 0atin American economies#
6.-,*-4*,SS S,*F6C," 11
(1abiana 1rayssinetA #Can 2uro$e an< Batin America Meet as 2GualsR' 1/28>
3tt$://&&&.i$sne&s.net/2D1*/D1/can!euro$e!an<!latin!america!meet!as!eGuals/)
T3e 2uro$ean =nion5s serious economic an< financial crisis stan<s in star? contrast to t3e
relative stability an< <eca<e!lon- -ro&t3 enIoye< by Batin America an< t3e Caribbean an< coul<
$ut t3e t&o blocs on eGual footin-> -ivin- t3e Sout3ern re-ion more levera-e to furt3er its
<eman<s an< economic -ro&t3. T3e 2uro$ean =nion (2=) is set to meet &it3 t3e Community of
Batin American an< Caribbean States (C2BAC) for a bi!re-ional summit in t3e C3ilean ca$ital of
Santia-o t3is Satur<ay> @an. 28 an< Sun<ay> @an. 2;. T3e meetin- &ill brin- to-et3er 3ea<s of
state or 3i-3 -overnment officials from t3e 8D countries t3at ma?e u$ t3e t&o re-ional blocs>
&3ic3 3ave a combine< $o$ulation of 1.D; billion an< stron- cultural> 3istoric an< commercial
ties. 7ut t3e $rocess of for-in- t3ese commercial ties 3as not been &it3out its s3are of
<ifficulties an< setbac?s> <es$ite t3e fact t3at> as t3e foun<in- <ocuments of C2BAC state> #t3e
2uro$ean =nion is t3e to$ <irect investor in Batin America an< t3e Caribbean> its lea<in-
coo$erator> an< secon< lar-est tra<in- $artner#.
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t ?5 @.o -imeframe for SolvencyA 383
-!ey say t!at t!e economic crisis 'ill at a minimum delay ,#(# effectiveness
for a decade" &ut # # #
1$ =iat c!ecs t!is# /e guarantee funding for t!e Counter)lan" and it
!a))ens immediately# ,ven if ,uro)e%s financial crisis taes years to
recover from" t!e Counter)lan goes into effect immediately#
3$ *eci)rocal 'it! t!e 4lan# -!e affirmative can fiat t!eir )lan t!roug! a
federal government t!at%s 12 trillion dollars in de&t# -!e argument &ot!
sides are maing is t!at t!eir )lan shoul% &e ado)ted and im)lemented
rig!t a'ay" not t!at it 'ould or 'ill#
1$ ,uro)e is t!e largest investor in 0atin America" and s!ares cultural
values t!at allo' it to solve effectively#
,( +(S6.,SS" 11
(#Batin America eyes strate-ic alliance &it3 2uro$e>' 1/2/> 3tt$://&&&.eubusiness.com/ne&s!
eu/latam!<i$lomacy.lE.)
7ut t3e re-ionsM economic &ei-3t varies &i<ely> &it3 t3e 2=> a -iant mar?et of 5DD million
$eo$le> ma?in- u$ t3e &orl<Ms bi--est economic bloc an< contributin- one fourt3 of t3e -lobal
9,:. T3e 2= is t3e bi--est outsi<e investor in Batin America> &it3 * $ercent of t3e <irect
forei-n investment in C2BAC or S*.5 billion in 2D1D. NT3is is more t3an t3e combine<
investment in C3ina> 6ussia an< 0n<ia>N accor<in- to a 2= <i$lomat. 2uro$ean <i$lomats are
fon< of recallin- t3at 2uro$eMs ties &it3 Batin America an< t3e Caribbean are base< Non a
common 3istory an< culture an< ins$ire< by t3e same values.N
0#1
3.C ,xtensions: A>t ?2 @,uro)ean 0eaders!i) -urnA 381
-!ey argue t!at t!e Counter)lan undermines ,uro)ean soft )o'er# -!is
isn%t true#
1$ .o 0in: -!e ,#(# 'ill not mae cuts from t!e Middle ,ast" t!ey 'ill cut
from Africa '!ic! !as no im)act on leaders!i)#
=0A.A;A. A.D CO.0,:" 11
(Ste$3en> enry A. Cissin-er C3air an< senior vice $resi<ent at Center for Strate-ic
0nternational Stu<iesA eat3er> senior fello& an< <irector of t3e CS0S 2uro$e :ro-ram> #A
,iminis3in- Transatlantic :artners3i$R t3e im$act of t3e financial crisis on 2uro$ean <efense
an< forei-n assistance ca$abilitiesA' May>
3tt$://csis.or-/files/$ublication/11D/2;Z1lana-anZ1inancialCrisisZ&eb.$<f)
Jver t3e $ast <eca<e> 2uro$e 3as 3one< its international <evelo$ment lea<ers3i$ s?ills>
$rinci$ally t3rou-3 t3e 9.> as it <emonstrates t3e full ran-e of its soft $o&er. T3erefore> 2uro$e
&ill be reluctant to -ive u$ its &ell!earne< an< $referre< -lobal $osition. 7ut as t3e reality of
im$ose< or voluntary austerity measures an< lac?luster economic -ro&t3 ultimately re<uce
2uro$ean official <evelo$ment assistance> ai< $riorities &ill be limite< an< more <irectly tie< to
a country5s economic or strate-ic interests. Ai< to Africa> an< to sub!Sa3aran Africa in
$articular> &ill li?ely sta-nate> meanin- t3at &3ile -lobal ai< to t3e re-ion may continue to rise>
it &ill <o so -ra<ually an< fall far s3ort of 9lenea-les commitments.
3$ ,uro)ean (nion leaders!i) is already lo' no' &ecause of declining
economic assistance# -!e Counter)lan )ro)s t!is &ac u)#
CO.0,:" 11
(eat3er> senior fello& an< <irector of t3e CS0S 2uro$e :ro-ram> #A ,iminis3in- Transatlantic
:artners3i$R t3e im$act of t3e financial crisis on 2uro$ean <efense an< forei-n assistance
ca$abilitiesA' May>
Muc3 of 2uro$e5s soft!$o&er lea<ers3i$ emanates from its official <evelo$ment assistance
(J,A). T3e 2uro$ean =nion an< its member states constitute t3e &orl<5s lar-est international
ai< <onor. T3e 15 2= countries t3at are members of t3e Jr-anisation for 2conomic Co!
o$eration an< ,evelo$ment (J2C,) ,evelo$ment Assistance Committee (,AC) nette< S8;.1
billion in J,A> or 58 $ercent of t3e ,AC5s total J,A in 2DDL. . . . 7ut 2uro$e5s soverei-n <ebt
crisis 3as calle< its bol< assistance -oals into Guestion. 6e<uctions in 9%0 [gross national
inco&e] cou$le< &it3 some #creative' <evelo$ment assistance bu<-etary accountin- (or ai<
inflation) by 2uro$ean ca$itals are a cause for concern t3at 2uro$e5s $rofesse< fait3 in its
en<urin- soft $o&er faces <efine< limits in an a-e of austerity. 0n 2DDL> t3e 2= ,AC members5
J,A total <i$$e< sli-3tly (D.2 $ercent)> re$resentin- D.// of 9%0. T3e J2C, Secretariat
0#1
estimates t3at t3e 2= members &ill fall &ell s3ort of t3eir 2D1D -oal> $robably reac3in- only
D./. $ercent of 9%0> &3en t3e <ata become available later in 2D11.
/FF
,uro)ean (nion Counter)lan Affirmative 384
2AC 1rontline: 2uro$ean =nion Counter$lan............................................................................2;5
:lan!s$ecific Solvency ,eficit: Mexican Security........................................................................2.1
:lan!S$ecific Solvency ,eficit: +eneEuelan ,emocracy.............................................................2.2
:lan!S$ecific Solvency ,eficit: Cuban 2t3anol...........................................................................2.*
#uro8ea! '!io! Cou!ter8la!
/FF
3AC =rontline: ,uro)ean (nion Counter)lan 385
1$ 4ermutation: Do &ot!# -!e (nited States and t!e ,uro)ean (nion s!ould
&ot! give economic assistance# Coo)eration solves t!e Harms &etter
&ecause &ot! agencies 'ill &e giving assistance" and it avoids t!e lins to
t!eir disadvantages &ecause t!e (#S# can successfully argue t!at t!e ,#(# is
res)onsi&le for t!e )lan '!ic! means t!at t!e disad lins are avoided#
=0A.A;A. A.D CO.0,:" 11
0nternational Stu<iesA eat3er> senior fello& an< <irector of t3e CS0S 2uro$e :ro-ram> #A
,iminis3in- Transatlantic :artners3i$R t3e im$act of t3e financial crisis on euro$ean <efense
an< forei-n assistance ca$abilitiesA' May>
T3e 2= an< t3e =nite< States $rovi<e a$$roximately .D $ercent of t3e &orl<5s official
<evelo$ment assistance (J,A). 11 As 2uro$ean an< American forei-n assistance bu<-ets receive
closer $olitical scrutiny from $arliaments an< t3e =.S. Con-ress <urin- times of -reater
austerity> t3ere &ill be increasin- $ressure to maximiEe a<ministrative efficiencies as &ell as
<evelo$ en3ance< assistance collaboration an< coo$eration. Cno&n as #2uro$e5s 2.t3 <onor>'
t3e 2uro$ean Commission contribute< l12 billion in assistance in 2DDL an< is t3e sixt3!lar-est
contributor of -lobal international ai<. 0n reco-nition of t3e Commission5s maIor contributin-
role> t3e %ovember 2DDL =.S.!2= Summit announce< t3at t3e <eca<e!lon- <efunct i-3 Bevel
Consultative 9rou$ on ,evelo$ment &oul< be re!launc3e< as t3e 2=!=.S. ,evelo$ment
,ialo-ue. T3e focus of t3e ,evelo$ment ,ialo-ue is on t3ree <evelo$ment $illars: t3e -lobal
3ealt3> foo< security> an< climate c3an-e initiatives of t3e Millennium ,evelo$ment 9oals.
,urin- t3eir %ovember 2D1D summit> t3e =nite< States an< t3e 2= committe< #to collaboration
an< coor<inate< action on <evelo$ment> reco-niEin- t3at (t3eir) -oals an< obIectives are ali-ne<
as never before.'
3$ -!e Counter)lan does not solve our Harms#
[Insert PlanS!eci"ic Sol#ency De"icit$
/FF
1$ 6nternational Actor =iat is illegitimate# -!is is a voting issue since suc! a
su&stantial )ortion of t!e negative )osition and t!is de&ate round itself is
)remised on a t!eoretically a&usive argument#
A$ ,ducation and =airness: -!ere are t!ousands of countries" international
organiGations and .;Os t!at could all do somet!ing similar to t!e )lan#
-!ere 'ould &e too many agent counter)lan o)tions" !urting t!e education
and fairness of de&ates#
+$ 6nfinite *egression: Allo'ing t!e .egative to test t!e agent in t!e
resolution &y fiating t!roug! any ot!er actor !as no o&Iective limit and
'ould regress to allo'ing t!em to fiat a c!ange in action t!roug! 0atin
American countries t!emselves" or t!roug! t!e agents 'it! t!ose countries
t!at are res)onsi&le for t!e Harms" ena&ling t!em to 'in de&ates &y fiat
alone#
C$ Artificial ;round: .o literature 'rites a&out t!eir disadvantage in t!e
context of a foreign country acting" meaning 'e cannot find s)ecific turns
or lins to t!e Counter)lan &efore t!e round# -!is allo's t!em to artificially
out'eig! our Affirmative#
D$ Our standard is t!at t!e .egative s!ould &e limited to counter)lans t!at
use t!e (#S# as its agent#
/FF
4$ .o Solvency: -!e ,#(#%s economy is too 'ea to su))ort foreign
assistance#
=0A.A;A." ,- A0" 11
0nternational Stu<ies> #A ,iminis3in- Transatlantic :artners3i$R t3e im$act of t3e financial
crisis on euro$ean <efense an< forei-n assistance ca$abilitiesA' May>
Jver t3e $ast five <eca<es> t3e =nite< States> its %ATJ allies> an< ot3er 2uro$ean =nion
countries 3ave been $artners in maintainin- transatlantic security an< lea<in- contributors to
international stability an< economic <evelo$ment. As :resi<ent 7arac? Jbama &rote on t3e eve
of %ATJ5s %ovember 2D1D Bisbon Summit> t3e =.S. relations3i$ &it3 #our 2uro$ean allies an<
$artners is t3e cornerstone of our en-a-ement &it3 t3e &orl< an< a catalyst for -lobal
coo$eration.' 1 T3is re$ort ex$lores t3e im$act of t3e -lobal financial crisis> an< t3e subseGuent
2uro$ean recession an< soverei-n <ebt crisis> on 2uro$e5s ability to sustain its valuable
contributions to t3is $artners3i$. 0t conclu<es t3at as t3e on-oin- economic an< $olitical crisis
<ee$ens> 2uro$e is li?ely to be a less ca$able> less &illin-> an< less intereste< $artner in t3ose
en<eavors. Measures of t3is s3ift in bur<en s3arin- are alrea<y evi<ent. As %ATJ Secretary
9eneral An<ers 1o-3 6amsussen note< at t3e 2D11 Munic3 Security Conference> a <eca<e a-o
t3e =nite< States accounte< for Iust un<er 5D $ercent of total Alliance <efense s$en<in-. To<ay
t3e =.S. s3are is closer to ;5 $ercent an< t3is transatlantic imbalance of <efense effort an<
ca$abilities is $roIecte< to -ro&. 2 As t3e Secretary 9eneral also observe<> some in 2uro$e are
not alarme< by t3is s3ift> because t3ey are content &it3 t3e 2=5s status as t3e lea<in- $rovi<er
of official 3umanitarian an< <evelo$ment assistance. 7ut t3is <e facto <ivision of labor t3at is
emer-in-> &3ere t3e =nite< States ta?es on 3ar<!$o&er missions an< 2uro$e o$ts for soft!
$o&er tas?s> &ill 3ave a corrosive effect on t3e transatlantic relations3i$. Moreover> t3e analysis
in t3is re$ort su--ests t3at t3e economic crisis is li?ely to result in a si-nificant contraction of
2uro$ean soft $o&er> as official <evelo$ment assistance bu<-ets come un<er $ressure from
-overnmental austerity measures.
/FF
5$ -!e ,#(# economic crisis 'ill delay solvency of t!e Counter)lan &y a
decade#
=0A.A;A." ,- A0" 11
T3e fallout from t3e first &ave of t3e -lobal financial crisis in t3e fall of 2DD. &as some&3at
<elaye< in 2uro$e> but t3e im$act of t3e secon< an< t3ir< &aves 3as create< a $erfect economic
storm t3at 3as u$en<e< 2uro$ean $olitics an< finances. Since May L> 2D1D> &3en it &as force<
to rescue t3e 9ree? economy> t3e 2uro$ean =nion 3as stru--le< to <evelo$ a <urable res$onse
an< <efine a mec3anism t3at &ill ultimately resolve t3e crisis. T3e uneven res$onse by
2uro$ean $olicyma?ers to t3e ban?in- an< soverei-n <ebt crises on t3e Continent 3as
exacerbate< t3e situation> lea<in- to <oubts about t3e future of t3e euro an< t3e -reater
2uro$ean $roIect itself. T3e crisis &ill continue to $rofoun<ly res3a$e 2uro$e $olitically an<
economically over t3e next <eca<e> &it3 maIor im$lications for %ATJ an< ot3er elements of t3e
transatlantic $artners3i$.
/FF
3AC =rontline: ,uro)ean (nion Counter)lan 38<
2$ -urn: ,uro)ean 0eaders!i)#
A$ ,conomic limits are causing trade-offs in ,#(# economic assistance a'ay
from lo' )rofile regions lie 0atin America in favor of more im)ortant
areas suc! as t!e Middle ,ast# -!e Counter)lan forces funding to 0atin
America" '!ic! undermines ,#(# soft )o'er#
=0A.A;A." ,- A0" 11
Muc3 of 2uro$e5s soft $o&er lea<ers3i$ emanates from its official <evelo$ment assistance
(J,A) as t3e 2uro$ean =nion an< its member states constitute t3e &orl<5s lar-est international
ai< <onor. T3e 15 2= countries t3at are members of t3e Jr-anisation for 2conomic Coo$eration
an< ,evelo$ment (J2C,) ,evelo$ment Assistance Committee (,AC) nette< S8;.1 billion in
J,A> or 58 $ercent of t3e ,AC5s total J,A in 2DDL. 0n 2DDL> t3e 2= members5 J,A total
<i$$e< sli-3tly> re$resentin- D.// of -ross national income (9%0). 2= ,AC members &ill fall
s3ort of t3eir 2D1D -oal of D.58 9%0 an< &ill be 3ar<!$resse< to reac3 t3e Millennium
,evelo$ment 9oal of D.; $ercent by 2D15. T3e soverei-n <ebt crisis 3as accelerate< $re!existin-
tren<s in 2uro$ean <evelo$ment assistance> inclu<in- ai< inflation> tie< ai<> an< a move a&ay
from ai< to least!<evelo$e< countries an< to&ar< $re!2= accession countries> 2= bor<er states>
resource!ric3 countries> an< 3i-3 $rofile o$erations> suc3 as Af-3anistan. 7ut t3e J,A story in
2uro$e is not a consistent one. 2uro$e5s soverei-n <ebt crisis 3as $ro<uce< t3ree cate-ories of
2uro$ean ai< <onors: (1) #$eri$3ery' countries most affecte< by t3e crisis t3at are bein- force<
to cut robust J,A as $art of overall austerity $ro-rams> suc3 as 0relan<A (2) t3e #core' countries
t3at 3ave fare< relatively &ell in t3e crisis an< are maintainin- t3eir (<ifferin-) assistance
commitments> suc3 as t3e =nite< Cin-<om an< 9ermanyA an< (*) some #outlier' countries t3at
fare< &ell in t3e crisis but are eit3er re<ucin- assistance> em$3asiEin- tie< ai<> or reclassifyin-
some $eace?ee$in- an< security su$$ort $ro-rams as J,A in t3e face of <iminis3e< $ublic
su$$ort> suc3 as t3e %et3erlan<s an< :olan<. MaximiEin- efficiency &ill become t3e mantra for
2uro$ean J,A. As J,A bu<-ets -ro& $olitically less $alatable> 2uro$ean $oliticians an<
<evelo$ment officials &ill increasin-ly see? to lin? ai< to -oo< -overnance an< to sto$ fun<in-
$ro-rams at t3e first si-n of inefficiencies. 0t is unclear &3et3er 2uro$e5s <rive for efficiency &ill
overs3a<o& t3e nee< for -reater effectiveness of t3e ai< itself an< &3et3er it can stri?e a rational
<ivision of labor &it3 t3e =nite< States an< ot3er lea<in- <onor countries.
/FF
+$ A strong and credi&le ,uro)ean (nion is necessary to com&at glo&al
)ro&lems lie diseases and economic colla)se t!at 'ill lead to extinction
&ecause no individual country !as t!e ca)acity to solve#
+*(-O." 1
(@o3n> 1ormer 0ris3 :rime Minister> #6e$ort before t3e @oint Committee on 2uro$ean Affairs>
:arliament of 0relan<>' Jctober> 3tt$://&&&.irl-ov.ie/committees!D2/c!
euro$eanaffairs/future/$a-e1.3tm)
2.5 As t3e Bae?en ,eclaration $ut it> N2uro$e nee<s to s3oul<er its res$onsibilities in t3e
-overnance of -lobaliEationN a<<in- t3at 2uro$e must exercise its $o&er in or<er Nto set
-lobaliEation &it3in a moral frame&or?> in ot3er &or<s to anc3or it in soli<arity an< sustainable
<evelo$mentN. 2.8 Jnly a stron- 2uro$ean =nion is bi- enou-3 to create a s$ace> an< a stable
set of rules> &it3in &3ic3 all 2uro$eans can live securely> move freely> an< $rovi<e for
t3emselves> for t3eir families an< for t3eir ol< a-e. 0n<ivi<ual states are too small to <o t3at on
t3eir o&n. Jnly a stron- 2uro$ean =nion is bi- enou-3 to <eal &it3 t3e -lobaliEe< 3uman
<iseases> suc3 as A0,S an< tuberculosis. Jnly a stron- 2uro$ean =nion is bi- enou-3 to <eal
&it3 -lobaliEe< criminal cons$iracies> li?e t3e Mafia> t3at t3reatens t3e security of all
2uro$eans. Jnly a stron- 2uro$ean =nion is bi- enou-3 to <eal &it3 -lobaliEe< environmental
t3reats> suc3 as -lobal &armin-> &3ic3 t3reaten our continent an< -enerations of its future
in3abitants. Jnly a stron- 2uro$ean =nion is bi- enou-3 to <eal &it3 -lobaliEe< economic
forces> &3ic3 coul< s$rea< recession from one country to anot3er an< <estroy millions of Iobs.
Jnly a stron- 2uro$ean =nion is bi- enou-3 to re-ulate> in t3e interests of society as a &3ole>
t3e activities of $rofit see?in- $rivate cor$orations> some of &3ic3 no& 3ave more s$en<in-
$o&er t3an many in<ivi<ual states. 2.; T3ese tas?s are too lar-e for in<ivi<ual states. 2.. Jnly
by comin- to-et3er in t3e 2uro$ean =nion can &e ensure t3at 3umanity> an< t3e values &3ic3
ma?e us> as in<ivi<uals> truly 3uman> $revail over blin< -lobal forces t3at &ill ot3er&ise
over&3elm us.

/FF
4lan-s)ecific Solvency Deficit: Mexican Security 391
A$ Cartels are attacing (#S# territory and )ro)erty in order to send a
message# -!e Counter)lan does not !ave t!e a&ility to )rotect or defend
territory 'it!in t!e (#S# ,xtend our 4,*56.S A.D 40AC6DO evidence#
+$ -!e (#S# !as em)irical success 'it! its )rogram to target violence at t!e
&order# -!e ,#(# and Mexico !ave never 'ored toget!er to com&at drug
violence in Mexico" meaning any )rogram 'ould !ave to &e develo)ed from
t!e ground u) and !as no guarantee of success# ,xtend our S,,05, A.D
=6.50,A evidence#
/FF
4lan-S)ecific Solvency Deficit: FeneGuelan Democracy 393
A$ (SA6D !as a )roven trac record 'it! democracy )romotion" and our
/A0S,* evidence says (#S# credi&ility on t!is issue is colla)sing &ecause of
inconsistencies in FeneGuela# Also extend our SCO-- A.D S-,,0,
evidence# -!e Counter)lan cannot restore credi&ility to t!e (nited States"
'!ic! is t!e ey internal lin to our Harms#
+$ Anti-Americanism is t!e rallying cry for terrorists taing money from
t!e FeneGuelan regime# -!e Counter)lan leaves t!e (#S# on t!e sideline"
maing it loo lie t!e enemy '!ile t!e ,#(# saves t!e day# -!is does not
c!allenge anti-Americanism# ,xtend our /A0S,* evidence#
/FF
4lan-S)ecific Solvency Deficit: Cu&an ,t!anol 391
A$ .o Climate C!ange Solvency# (#S# farmers are currently destroying
grasslands to gro' corn instead of soy&eans" and t!e Counter)lan cannot
affect t!e (#S# et!anol industry#
+$ .o ,conomic Colla)se Solvency# -!e Counter)lan cannot affect oil
s)ies caused &y (#S# over-reliance on automo&ile gasoline# -!e .egative
!as no s)ecific Harm evidence t!at connects ,uro)ean driving to an
economic colla)se# 6n fact" gasoline is far more ex)ensive already in
,uro)e" '!ic! !as gone muc! fart!er already to &ecome less de)endent on
cars#
C$ 6f t!e em&argo 'it! Cu&a stays" no sugar-cane et!anol can &e used in t!e
(nited States '!ic! maes &ot! our Harms scenarios turns to t!e
counter)lan# ,xtend our S4,CH- evidence#
D$ .o Solvency on ,uro)ean et!anol# -!e .eg !as no evidence t!at says
t!at t!ere is an ,#(# et!anol industry or large maret for sugarcane
et!anol#
&o8icality 1/1
0#1
&o8icality 1/1
0#1
-o)icality 394
1%C S3ell: Mexico Security.......................................................................................................... 2.5
2%C/1%6 2xtensions: Mexico Security.......................................................................................2.8
1%C S3ell: +eneEuela ,emocracy................................................................................................2L2
2%C/1%6 2xtensions: +eneEuela ,emocracy.............................................................................2L*
1%C S3ell: Cuba 2t3anol............................................................................................................. 2LL
2%C/1%6 2xtensions: Cuba 2t3anol..........................................................................................*DD
&o8icality 1/4
Me+ico Security 0#1
1.C S!ell: -o)icality H Mexico 395
A$ 6nter)retation: ,conomic engagement is for !el)ing countries 'it! t!eir
economies# Assistance to reduce drug crime is security assistance" '!ic! is
different#
-A*.O== A.D .O/,0S" 74
(Curt> S$ecialist in 1orei-n Affairs an< %ational ,efenseA Barry> S$ecialist in 1orei-n Affairs an<
%ational ,efense for Con-ressional 6esearc3 ServiceA' 1orei-n Ai<: An 0ntro<uctory Jvervie&
of =.S. :ro-rams an< :olicy>' //15> 3tt$://&&&.au.af.mil/au/a&c/a&c-ate/crs/L.!L18.$<f)
2conomic ai< su$$ortin- =.S. $olitical an< security obIectives. 0n 1V2DD/> Con-ress a$$ro$riate< S5./
billion> 28Y of total assistance> for five maIor $ro-rams &3ose $rimary $ur$ose is to meet s$ecial =.S.
economic> $olitical> or security interests. T3e bul? of t3ese fun<s K S* billion K are $rovi<e< t3rou-3 t3e
2conomic Su$$ort 1un< (2S1)> an ai< cate-ory <esi-ne< to a<vance American strate-ic -oals &it3
economic assistance. Since t3e 1L;L Cam$ ,avi< accor<s an< es$ecially since t3e en< of t3e Col< 4ar>
most 2S1 3as -one to su$$ort t3e Mi<<le 2ast :eace :rocess. Since L/11> muc3 2S1 3as tar-ete<
countries of im$ortance in t3e &ar on terrorism. 2S1 fun<s can be use< for <evelo$ment $roIects (about
5;Y of t3e total in 1V2DD/)> or in ot3er &ays> suc3 as cas3 transfers> to 3el$ countries stabiliEe t3eir
economies an< service forei-n <ebt (about /*Y in 1V2DD/). 4it3 t3e <emise of t3e Soviet em$ire> t3e
=nite< States establis3e< t&o ne& ai< $ro-rams &3ic3 met $articular strate-ic $olitical interests. T3e
S22, (Su$$ort for 2ast 2uro$ean ,emocracy Act of 1L.L) an< t3e 1622,JM Su$$ort Act (1ree<om for
6ussia an< 2mer-in- 2urasian ,emocracies an< J$en Mar?ets Su$$ort Act of 1LL2) $ro-rams &ere
<esi-ne< to 3el$ Central 2uro$e an< t3e ne& in<e$en<ent states of t3e former Soviet =nion (%0S) ac3ieve
<emocratic systems an< free mar?et economies. 0n 1V2DD/> S22, countries are allocate< S//2./ million
&3ile t3e %0S receives S5.*.5 million in a$$ro$riate< fun<s. Several ot3er -lobal issues t3at are
consi<ere< t3reats to =.S. security an< &ell!bein- K terrorism> narcotics> crime an< &ea$ons
$roliferation K 3ave receive< s$ecial attention from t3e forei-n assistance $ro-ram> es$ecially since t3e
&ar on terror be-an. 2ac3 of t3ese $ro-rams $rovi<es a ran-e of la& enforcement activities> trainin-> an<
eGui$ment. 0n 1V2DD/> t3e anti!narcotics an< crime $ro-ram (exclu<in- alternative <evelo$ment
activities) accounts for about SLDD million in forei-n ai< a$$ro$riations K over 3alf of &3ic3 is for an
An<ean anti!narcotics initiative. Anti!terrorism $ro-rams a<< anot3er S1/8./ million> an< &ea$ons
$roliferation!relate< activities are fun<e< at S25D million.
+$ Fiolation: -!e )lan is not aid to im)rove Mexico%s economy# 6t is for
crime )revention and security training#
C$ Standards:
1$ 0imits: Anyt!ing can &e classified as @economic engagementA if t!e only
reEuirement is t!at t!e )lan s)ends money to do it# 0imiting do'n to
assistance targeted for economic develo)ment allo's for more reasona&le
and more fair limits on t!e to)ic#
3$ -o)ic ,ducation: -!e center of t!is to)ic is economic coo)eration and
develo)ment# 6f t!e Affirmative can tal a&out security issues" it diverts our
learning from economic issues to military issues" '!ic! maes all de&ate
to)ics t!e same and maes de&aters ignorant a&out economics#
D$ -o)icality is a Foting 6ssue for fairness and education#
&o8icality 2/4
Me+ico Security 0#1
3.C ,xtension: A>t - ?1 @/e MeetA 392
-!ey say t!at t!ey meet our inter)retation &ecause t!e )lan gives Mexico
money" &ut # # #
1$ -!ey do not meet# -!e 1AC Harms scenario maes it very clear t!at t!e
Affirmative is designed as security assistance and not to sta&iliGe t!e
economy# -!ey do not even read an economy argument in t!e 1ACO
3$ Don%t allo' t!em to argue t!at 'e%re &lurring t!e distinction &et'een
Harms and -o)icality !ere# /e%re referring to t!eir Harms scenario and
evidence to mae a reasona&le )oint t!at t!eir o'n 1AC s)eec! )roves our
claim t!at t!is case 'ould &e de&ated in t!e context of security issues in
(#S# )olicy-maing circles H for exam)le" t!e Congress H not in t!e context
of economic engagement#
&o8icality 3/4
Me+ico Security 0#1
3.C ,xtension: A>t - ?3 @Counter-6nter)retationA 398
-!ey )rovide a counter-inter)retation t!at engagement is economic
assistance intended to im)rove security" &ut # # #
1$ -!ey do not meet t!eir counter-inter)retation &ecause t!e )lan is not
)roviding economic assistanceP it is !el)ing to fig!t crime# -!at is closer to
military assistance t!an economic assistance#
3$ Our inter)retation !as a clearer &rig!t-line: 6t is easy to determine
assistance t!at goes to sta&iliGe an economy t!an to figure out '!at
@security goalsA are# *emem&er" our @limitsA standard says t!at
affirmatives could mae t!e to)ic mean anyt!ing if t!e only t!ing t!e )lan
!ad to do 'as )rovide funding to anot!er country to do somet!ing#
1$ *eal-'orld context favors our inter)retation# /e t!in it%s o&vious t!at
t!e affirmative )lan 'ould more liely &e de&ated in a security-context"
rat!er t!an an economic context#
&o8icality 4/4
Me+ico Security 0#1
3.C ,xtension: A>t - ?1 @Counter StandardsA 399
-!ey read t'o counter-standards" ground and education" &ut # # #
1$ Our standards out'eig!: 0imits are a )re-reEuisite for !aving
meaningful de&ate# /it!out limits on t!e to)ic" t!e negative 'ould !ave no
'ay to )redict '!at direction affirmatives are liely to go" leaving t!e
negative 'it! very little incentive to researc! and learn more a&out t!e
to)ic" and reliant on t!e most generic arguments#
3$ -!ey are asing for too muc! Affirmative ground# -!eir inter)retation
'ould allo' t!e to)ic to include all sorts of cases involving non-economic
issues suc! as drugs" nuclear )roliferation" and military training '!ic!
'ould lead to an overly-&road and educationally su)erficial to)ic#
M,:,* A.D S(006FA." 13
(:eter> Analyst in Batin American AffairsA Mar?> S$ecialist in Batin American Affairs for
Con-ressional 6esearc3 ServiceA #C6S 6e$ort for Con-ress :re$are< for Members an<
Committees of Con-ress =.S. 1orei-n Assistance to Batin America an< t3e Caribbean: 6ecent
Tren<s an< 1V2D1* A$$ro$riations>' 8/28> 3tt$://&&&.fas.or-/s-$/crs/ro&/6/25.2.$<f)
0n a<<ition to its su$$ort for economic> social> an< $olitical <evelo$ment efforts> an< t3e =nite<
States fun<s a number of security assistance $ro-rams in t3e re-ion <esi-ne< to a<<ress security
concerns. 1un<in- $rovi<e< t3rou-3 t3e 0nternational %arcotics Control an< Ba& 2nforcement
(0%CB2) account su$$orts counternarcotics an< civilian la& enforcement efforts as &ell as
$roIects <esi-ne< to stren-t3en Iu<icial institutions. =.S. assistance <esi-ne< to counter -lobal
t3reats suc3 as terrorism an< $roliferation of &ea$ons of mass <estruction is $rovi<e< t3rou-3
t3e %on$roliferation> Anti!terrorism> ,e!minin-> an< 6elate< $ro-rams (%A,6) account. T3e
=nite< States also su$$orts Batin American an< Caribbean militaries by $rovi<in- eGui$ment
an< $ersonnel trainin- t3rou-3 t3e 1orei-n Military 1inancin- (1M1) an< 0nternational
Military 2<ucation an< Trainin- (0M2T) accounts. T3e State ,e$artment mana-es t3e 0%CB2
an< %A,6 accounts. 0t also a<ministers t3e 1M1 an< 0M2T accounts> &3ic3 are im$lemente<
by t3e ,e$artment of ,efense. *
&o8icality 7/4
Me+ico Security 0#1
3.C ,xtension: A>t - ?4 @.o A&use H ( #S #A #6 #D #A 39<
-!ey say t!at t!ey%re to)ical &ecause t!ey )lan is im)lemented &y (SA6D"
&ut # # #
1$ Must &ecause t!ey use a s)ecific agency does not mean t!e )lan increases
economic engagement# 6f t!is 'ere true" any Affirmative team could !ave
t!e (#S#A#6#D# send military assistance or crime-fig!ting assistance#
Allo'ing t!is argument allo's affirmatives to &e artificially to)ical#
3$ -!ere is a clear distinction in literature &et'een economic arguments
suc! as trade" and non-economic arguments suc! as drug trafficing#
*OS, A.D S46,;,0" 79
(An<re&> 7.T. 6occa @r. :rofessor of 0nternational Tra<e an< 2conomic Analysis an< :olicy in
t3e aas Sc3ool of 7usiness at t3e =niversity of California> 7er?eleyA Mar?> +ice :resi<ent>
2conomic 6esearc3> 1e<eral 6eserve 7an? of San 1ranciscoA # %on!2conomic 2n-a-ement an<
0nternational 2xc3an-e: T3e Case of 2nvironmental Treaties>'
3tt$://3alleinstitute.emory.e<u/$<fs/:021Z6oseZS$ie-el.$<f)
Countries> li?e $eo$le> interact &it3 eac3 ot3er on a number of <ifferent <imensions. Some
interactions are strictly economicA for instance> countries en-a-e in international tra<e of -oo<s>
services> ca$ital> an< labor. 7ut many are not economic> at least not in any narro& sense. 1or
instance> t3e =nite< States see?s to $romote 3uman ri-3ts an< <emocracy> <eter nuclear
$roliferation> sto$ t3e s$rea< of narcotics> an< so fort3. Accor<in-ly America> li?e ot3er
countries> $artici$ates in a number of international institutions to furt3er its forei-n $olicy
obIectivesA it 3as Ioine< security alliances li?e %ATJ> an< international or-aniEations suc3 as
t3e 0nternational Atomic 2ner-y A-ency. 0n t3is $a$er> &e concentrate on t3e interestin- an<
un<erstu<ie< case of international environmental arran-ements (02As). 4e as? &3et3er
$artici$ation in suc3 non!economic $artners3i$s ten<s to en3ance international economic
relations. T3e ans&er> in bot3 t3eory an< $ractice> is $ositive.
&o8icality 9/4
Me+ico Security 0#1
3.C ,xtension: A>t - ?5 @Mixing +urdensA 3<7
-!ey say t!at our inter)retation mixes Harms and -o)icality" &ut # # #
1$ -!ere is no im)act to mixing &urdens# 6f 'e 'in t!at t!e Affirmative is
not to)ical" t!at is a reason to reIect t!em and vote .egative#
3$ :ou can determine t!e intent of t!e )lan &y reading Iust t!e )lan text#
-!eir intent is to decrease crime and violence" '!ic! is different t!an
im)roving t!e economy# -!e 'ords @crimeA and @violenceA are not in t!e
resolution# -!e affirmative )lan is not )!rased in a 'ay t!at maes it
economic engagement#
1$ -!e negative argument is more real-'orld# /e%ve argued t!at t!e )lan
'ould &e more liely de&ated in a security assistance su&-committee in
Congress rat!er t!an a financial assistance su&-committee#
&o8icality 4/4
Me+ico Security 0#1
3.C ,xtension: A>t - ?2 @*easona&ilityA 3<1
-!ey say t!at )lans need only &e reasona&ly to)ical &ecause - is only a
round-'inner for t!e negative" &ut # # #
1$ :ou s!ould default to a standard of com)eting inter)retations#
*easona&ility is ar&itrary &ecause every Iudge 'ill !ave a different idea of
'!at a @reasona&le enoug!A inter)retation is# /eig!ing t!e costs and
&enefits of eac! inter)retation and Iudging t!e )lan &ased on t!e &est one is
t!e only 'ay to )ut t!e round in t!e !ands of t!e de&aters" '!ic!
encourages more education and is more fair#
3$ -!e affirmative cannot define @reasona&ilityA in an o&Iective manner"
one t!at isn%t &latantly &iased &y t!eir strong self-interest in 'anting t!eir
)lan to &e to)ical# =or t!is reason" you must reIect @reasona&ilityA as a
standard#
CDL Core Files 2013/14 10C Fro!tli!e
&o8icality 1/1
,e!e-uela De)ocracy 0#1
1.C S!ell: -o)icality H FeneGuela 3<3
A$ 6nter)retation: ,conomic ,ngagement reEuires an unconditional
transfer of aid from t!e (nited States to anot!er country" regardless of
'!et!er t!e ot!er country initiates reform#
;AM+600" 71
(9ary> -eneral e<itor for Mi<<le 2ast 1orumA #T3e American!Syrian Crisis an< t3e 2n< of
Constructive 2n-a-ementA' A$ril> 3tt$://&&&.meforum.or-/meib/articles/D*D/Zs1.3tm)
=ntil last mont3> t3e $arameters of American $olicy to&ar< Syria &ere strictly <efine< by t3e
State ,e$artmentMs <octrine of constructive en-a-ement> a <i$lomatic o$eratin- $rinci$le
ins$ire< by t3e successful use of =S economic an< military ai< <urin- t3e 1L;Ds to facilitate
2-y$tian :resi<ent An&ar Sa<atMs acce$tance of a bilateral $eace treaty &it3 0srael. T3e
un<erlyin- assum$tions of =S constructive en-a-ement in t3e Mi<<le 2ast are t3at t3e ca$acity
of t3e =nite< States to re&ar< N-oo< be3aviorN far excee<s its ca$acity to $unis3 Nba< be3aviorN
(&3ic3 &as lar-ely true <urin- t3e Col< 4ar) an< t3at t3e latter is ineffective in con<itionin-
$olicyma?in- in t3e Arab &orl< for a variety of cultural an< 3istorical reasons. American efforts
to &oo Sa<at in t3e aftermat3 of t3e 1L;* Vom Ci$$ur 4ar &ere $arallele< by constructive
en-a-ement of Syrian :resi<ent afeE Assa<. T3e =nite< States $ressure< 0srael to &it3<ra&
from $art of t3e 9olan ei-3ts ca$ture< from Syria <urin- t3e 1L8; &ar> $rovi<e< Syria &it3
several 3un<re< million <ollars of economic ai<> an< tacitly su$$orte< t3e entry of Syrian troo$s
into Bebanon (ostensibly to rein in ra<ical :alestinian -rou$s t3reatenin- t3e overt3ro& of its
-overnment). o&ever> American re&ar<s faile< to &in Assa<Ms acce$tance . . . .
+$ Fiolation: -!e )lan is conditional" only giving assistance if FeneGuela
actually im)lements reforms# 6f FeneGuela reIects t!e offer" no economic
assistance is given#
C$ Standards:
1$ Conditionality: 4lans must &e to)ical on t!eir face" &ut t!e affirmative%s
)lan only acts to increase American economic engagement under a certain
condition" meaning t!at it is only conditionally to)ical# Since t!e )lan must
&e to)ical on its face" uncertainty on its !rima "acie to)icality means you
must vote negative#
3$ -o)ic ,x)losion: (nder an affirmative inter)retation" affirmatives could
try to get 0atin American countries to ado)t an infinite range of )olicies &y
conditioning our aid on t!eir ado)ting t!em# -!is ex)lodes t!e to)ic" and is
t!us &ot! uneducational and com)etitively unfair#
1$ ,ducation: -!e core of t!e to)ic is learning a&out (#S# aid# 6f aid doesn%t
need to &e transferred" 'e don%t learn a&out government interactions#
D$ -o)icality is a voting issue for =airness and ;round#
CDL Core Files 2013/14 20C/10R #+te!sio!s
&o8icality 1/9
3.C ,xtension: A>t - ?1 @/e MeetA 3<1
-!ey say t!at t!ey meet our inter)retation &ecause FeneGuela 'ill acce)t
t!e )lan%s conditions on aid" &ut # # #
1$ -!ey do not meet our inter)retation# -!e )lan must guarantee assistance
regardless of t!e ot!er country%s res)onse# 6t is a matter of longer-term
)ro&a&ilities t!at FeneGuela 'ill acce)t t!e )lan%s conditions# +ut any
)ossi&ility t!at t!e )lan could &e refused" no matter !o' small" is a reason
t!e )lan isn%t to)ical on its face#
3$ 4lan in a vacuum: -!e )lan text on its face does not transfer funds to
anot!er country# :ou s!ould not evaluate solvency or any ot!er 1AC claims
'!en determining -o)icality# -!e affirmative is asing t!e Iudge to mix
&urdens to determine t!e )lan%s to)icality#
&o8icality 2/9
3.C ,xtension: A>t - ?3 @Counter-6nter)retationA 3<4
-!ey offer a counter-inter)retation t!at engagement reEuires conditioning
aid" &ut # # #
1$ -!is counter-inter)retation violates our 0imits and ,ducation standards#
+y allo'ing ot!er countries to determine '!et!er t!e )lan !a))ens" t!ey
ex)lode limits and create a to)ic t!at 'ould im)ose an unmanagea&le
researc! load for t!e .egative team '!ile also decreasing t!e amount 'e
learn a&out core to)ic literature#
3$ Our standards out'eig! t!eirs# 0imits are a )rereEuisite to meaningful
de&ate" and education is t!e reason t!e activity exists# 6f 'e 'in t!is )oint"
t!ey cannot 'in t!at t!eir inter)retation is &etter for de&ate#
&o8icality 3/9
3.C ,xtension: A>t - ?1 @Counter-StandardsA 3<5
-!ey )ut for'ard t'o counter-standards H limits and government-s)ecific#
+ut t!ey don%t 'in t!at t!eir inter)retation is &etter" &ased on t!ese
standards#

1$ -!ey do not 'in 0imits &ecause t!ere are no limits to '!at conditional
affirmatives could do# 6f you multi)ly t!e num&er of )olicy goals &y t!e
num&er of forms of assistance &y all t!e )ossi&le im)lementation
outcomes" you 'ould create an unmanagea&le to)ic 'it! very 'ea
researc! on every case#
=*,*5S" 2
(9eor-> :rofessor of Conflict :revention an< Conflict Mana-ement at =trec3t =niversityA #T3e
=se of :eace Con<itionalities in Conflict an< :ost!Conflict settin-s: A Conce$tual 1rame&or?
an< a C3ec?list>' Jctober> &&&.clin-en<ael.nl/$ublications/2DD8/2DD81DDDZcruZfrer?s.$<f)
Jn t3e basis of t3e above t3e follo&in- $reliminary <efinition of ai< con<itionality coul< be $ut
for&ar<: Ai< con<itionality refers to attem$ts by <onor -overnments to in<uce reci$ient
-overnments to c3an-e t3eir $olicies an< be3aviour> as &ell as to influence t3e &ay ai< itself is
s$ent. 0n all t3e above cases> <onors nee< to s$ecify exactly &3at -oals or <irections it 3as in
min< for t3eir res$ective reci$ients. T3e $ossibilities are virtually en<less> ran-in- from fiscal
an< macro!economic reforms> structural a<Iustment $ro-rammes> res$ect for 3uman ri-3ts>
re<ucin- military ex$en<iture> -en<er an< environment!frien<ly $olicies> $roce<ural an<
substantive <emocracy> to t3e $romotion of free me<ia an< stimulation of civil society. Also
freGuently inclu<e< in con<itions are anti!corru$tion $olicies> trans$arency an< ot3er measures
of -oo< -overnance. 0t is beyon< t3e sco$e of t3is $a$er to elaborate on t3e $roblem of <efinin-
t3ese issues in a consistent an< a$$ro$riate manner> because of t3e s$ecific context> ca$abilities
an< &ea?nesses of eac3 reci$ient country. T3e ?no&le<-e base for suc3 $olicy $rescri$tions is
often &ea?> as t3e intervention lo-ic of many $olicies is not base< on location!s$ecific> teste<
an< $roven evi<ence. Sto??e ma?es a number of interestin- observations on t3ose issues an<
also raises also a number of fun<amental> moral an< et3ical <ilemmas in t3is re-ar< (1LL5: **!
/1). *.2 43en <oes ai< or $olicy become a con<itionalityR T3ou-3 &e may no& all a-ree t3at
con<itionalities are <onor instruments or attem$ts to reac3 $articular -oals> t3e Guestion
remains &3en a $articular <onor instrument can be calle< a con<itionality an< &3en notR Be&is>
for exam$le> <efines con<itionality as ]<onor efforts of one ?in< or anot3er to influence reci$ient
$olicies5 (1LL*:/1). 7y t3is <efinition> con<itionality attac3es to virtually all ai< an< t3us t3e
<efinition loses its <istin-uis3in- c3aracter.
3$ ,ven if t!ey !ave evidence from t!e government" 'e !ave evidence in t!e
context of assistance to 0atin America# Also" if 'e 'in t!eir inter)retation is
'orse for de&ate t!en it does not matter '!o 'rote t!e inter)retation#
&o8icality 4/9
3.C ,xtension: A>t - ?4 @Only 4ositive ConditionsA 3<2
-!ey say t!at engagement is limited to )ositive conditions" &ut # # #
1$ -!is is an artificial limit &ecause t!eir actual inter)retation evidence
allo's for negative condition )lans# -!ere is actually no distinction &et'een
)ositive and negative conditionsP t!e t!reat of removing aid im)lied in t!e
)lan is a negative sanction#
=O*C,S," 73
(9re-> Ba& Associate &it3 u-3es> ubbar< X 6ee<> BB:A #9lobaliEin- ,ecency: 6es$onsible
2n-a-ement in an 2ra of 2conomic 0nte-ration>' Vale uman 6i-3ts X ,evelo$ment Ba&
@ournal)
At t3e mar-ins> #con<itionalities' in<ucin- a<3erence to co<es of con<uct an< sanctions blur
to-et3er. 1or instance> &3ile selective $urc3asin- nee< not constitute a boycott> t3e 7urma an<
Sout3 Africa $rocurement re-imes <iscusse< above are clearly <esi-ne< to curtail economic
en-a-ement &it3 un$alatable re-imes. Measures insistin- on <ivestment cross a subtle
boun<ary> -oin- beyon< t3e #miti-ation' -oal of t3e secon< $ron- of res$onsible en-a-ement.
T3ey clearly constitute sanctions> t3e $ro$riety of &3ic3 must be scrutiniEe< &it3 an eye to t3e
various concerns about sanctions> t3eir effectiveness an< secon<ary effects.
&o8icality 7/9
3.C ,xtension: A>t - ?5 @.o Case MeetsA 3<8
-!ey say t!at no case can meet our inter)retation &ecause )lans can%t
guarantee foreign government coo)eration" &ut # # #
1$ Any Affirmative t!at guarantees a transfer in assistance 'it!out
reEuiring a res)onse from t!e target country meets our inter)retation#
,ven if t!e target country reIects t!e assistance or t!e )lan doesn%t solve"
t!at !a))ens after t!e )lan !as occurred and t!us does not c!ange '!et!er
t!e )lan is to)ical# -!e Iudge s!ould examine t!e )lan in a vacuum to
determine -o)icality#
&o8icality 9/9
3.C ,xtension: A>t - ?2 @*easona&ilityA 3<9
'!at a @reasona&ly goodA inter)retation is# /eig!ing t!e costs and &enefits
of eac! inter)retation and Iudging t!e )lan &ased on t!e &est one is t!e only
'ay to )ut t!e round in t!e !ands of t!e de&aters" '!ic! encourages more
education and is more fair#

standard#
CDL Core Files 2013/14 10C Fro!tli!e
&o8icality 1/1
Cuba #tha!ol 0#1
1.C S!ell: -o)icality H Cu&a 3<<
A$ 6nter)retation: @6ncreaseA means actively maing somet!ing t!at exists
greater from a )reviously existing level#
+(C50,:" 2
(@eremia3> Attorney> Amicus Curiae 7rief> Safeco 0ns. Co. of America et al v. C3arles 7urr et al>
3tt$://su$reme.l$.fin<la&.com/su$remeZcourt/briefs/D8!.//D8!./.mer.ami.mica.$<f)
1irst> t3e court sai< t3at t3e or<inary meanin- of t3e &or< #increase' is #to ma?e somet3in- -reater>'
&3ic3 it believe< s3oul< not #be limite< to cases in &3ic3 a com$any raises t3e rate t3at an in<ivi<ual 3as
$reviously been c3ar-e<.' /*5 1.*< at 1DL1. Vet t3e <efinition offere< by t3e %int3 Circuit com$els t3e
o$$osite conclusion. 7ecause #increase' means #to ma?e somet3in- -reater>' t3ere must necessarily 3ave
been an existin- $remium> to &3ic3 2<o5s actual $remium may be com$are<> to <etermine &3et3er an
#increase' occurre<. Con-ress coul< 3ave $rovi<e< t3at #a<!verse action' in t3e insurance context means
c3ar-in- an amount -reater t3an t3e o$timal $remium> but instea< c3ose to <efine a<verse action in
terms of an #increase.' T3at <efinitional c3oice must be res$ecte<> not i-nore<. See Colautti v. 1ran?lin>
/*L =.S. *;L> *L2!L* n.1D (1L;L) (#(a) <efinition &3ic3 <eclares &3at a term ]means5 . . . exclu<es any
meanin- t3at is not state<'). %ext> t3e %int3 Circuit reasone< t3at because t3e 0nsurance :ron- inclu<es
t3e &or<s #existin- or a$$lie< for>' Con-ress inten<e< t3at an #increase in any c3ar-e' for insurance must
#a$$ly to all insurance transactions F from an initial $olicy of insurance to a rene&al of a lon-!3el<
$olicy.' /*5 1.*< at 1DL1. T3is inter$retation rea<s t3e &or<s #exist!in- or a$$lie< for' in isolation.
Jt3er ty$es of a<verse action <escribe< in t3e 0nsurance :ron- a$$ly only to situations &3ere a consumer
3a< an existin- $olicy of insurance> suc3 as a #cancellation>' #re<uction>' or #c3an-e' in insurance. 2ac3
of t3ese forms of a<verse action $resu$$oses an alrea<y!existin- $olicy> an< un<er usual canons of
statutory construction t3e term #increase' also s3oul< be construe< to a$$ly to increases of an alrea<y!
existin- $olicy. See ibbs v. 4inn> 5/2 =.S. ..> 1D1 (2DD/) (#a $3rase -at3ers meanin- from t3e &or<s
aroun< it') (citation omitte<).
+$ Fiolation: -!e Affirmative removes a &arrier to economic engagement"
&ut t!ey do not actively )rovide additional economic aid t!at can &e
measured against a current" )re-existing level of economic aid#
C$ Standards:
1$ 4redicta&le ;round H *emoving a &arrier does not )rovide Euantifia&le
increases in aid over t!e status Euo t!at a negative strategy relies on# Core
arguments lie t!e Corru)tion Disadvantage reEuire &eing a&le to )in t!e
)lan to a sta&le transfer of resources" and )erce)tion-&ased arguments lie
t!e 4olitics Disadvantage reEuire allocation of ne' funds rat!er t!an only a
removal of a &arrier#
3$ ,ffects -o)icality H ,ven if t!ere are material resources transferred
eventually" t!is reEuires several ste)s &efore t!e )lan &ecomes to)ical#
,ffects to)icality reEuires t!e affirmative to 'in solvency in order to &e
to)ical" even t!oug! t!e )lan !as to &e to)ical on its face#
D$ -o)icality is a Foting 6ssue for =airness and ,ducation#
&o8icality 1/9
Cuba #tha!ol 0#1
3.C ,xtension: A>t ?1 @/e MeetA 177
-!ey say t!at t!ey meet our inter)retation &ecause t!e )lan initiates a
)rocess t!at leads to economic engagement" &ut # # #
1$ -!ey don%t meet# -!e )lan removes t!e em&argo" &ut it does not
guarantee )urc!ase of et!anol# Our inter)retation says an increase !as to
&e a Euantifia&ly greater level over a )re-existing level#
3$ ,xtend our ,ffects -o)icality standard# -!e )lan mig!t create conditions
'!ere et!anol is )urc!ased in t!e future" &ut t!at is only an effect of
)assing a )lan t!at on its face isn%t to)ical# And a '!ole lot of additional
)olicy actions could &e deemed to)ical &y effects &ecause t!ey eventually
led to more economic aid to 0atin America#
1$ -!e )lan must &e to)ical on its face# -!ey !ave conceded t!e C3
standard" &ut t!ey fail to meet it# -!e )lan does not mandate an increase in
economic engagement" as it must do" it only maes an increase )ossi&le#
&o8icality 2/9
Cuba #tha!ol 0#1
3.C ,xtension: A>t ?3 @Counter-inter)retationA 171
-!ey offer a counter-inter)retation" t!at @increaseA must &e measured over
time and not immediately" &ut # # #

1$ ,xtend our inter)retation# -!e Affirmative must &e direct economic
assistance to Cu&a" '!ic! reEuires a measurement against a &aseline
immediately &efore# Our inter)retation is clearer and more o&Iective t!an
t!eir inter)retation" &ecause t!e )lan eit!er immediately causes more
financial assistance to arrive in Cu&a or it doesn%t and isn%t to)ical#
3$ Dictionaries also su))ort our definition t!at increase means to actively
mae greater#
*A.DOM HO(S, /,+S-,*%S CO00,;, D6C-6O.A*:" <2
increase: 1)to ma?e -reater> as in number> siEe> stren-t3> or GualityA au-ment 2)to become
-reater> as in number> siEe> stren-t3> or Guality *)to multi$ly by $ro$a-ation /)-ro&t3 or
au-mentation in siEe> stren-t3> Guality 5)t3e act or $rocess of increasin-
&o8icality 3/9
Cuba #tha!ol 0#1
3.C ,xtension: A>t ?1 @Counter StandardsA 173
-!ey )ut for'ard t'o counter-standards" government context and to)ic
education" &ut # # #
1$ Our standards out'eig!# ;round is t!e most im)ortant standard &ecause
it defines t!e limits of a fair de&ate# 6f t!e Affirmative !as too many )ossi&le
advantages" t!e Affirmative could !ave a &ig advantage '!ic! is &ot!
&latantly unfair and anti-educational#
3$ Our inter)retation is Iust as contextual for government )olicy as t!eirsP it
is from a &rief in a (#S# court case#
1$ -!eir ,ducation argument is &ac'ards# -!eir evidence concedes t!at
including Affirmatives t!at only remove &arriers 'ould allo' for a lot more
)ossi&le cases# /e only !ave finite time to researc! &et'een de&ates" and it
is &etter for de&ate to focus t!at researc! on a smaller num&er of cases so
t!at de&aters can learn a lot more a&out eac! one#
4$ -!ey mae t!e to)ic dual-directional &y allo'ing for a decrease in
economic engagement# Deregulations )lans lie t!eirs could eliminate t!e
government interaction entirely" '!ic! 'ould mae t!e 'ord @increaseA
utterly meaningless#
6.F,S-O4,D6A" .O DA-,
(,ere-ulation> 3tt$://&&&.investo$e<ia.com/terms/</<ere-ulate.as$"axEE1ySL8vP2)
,efinition of M,ere-ulationM
T3e re<uction or elimination of -overnment $o&er in a $articular in<ustry> usually enacte< to
create more com$etition &it3in t3e in<ustry.
&o8icality 4/9
Cuba #tha!ol 0#1
3.C ,xtension: A>t ?4 @,ffects 6nevita&leA 171
-!ey say t!at effects to)icality isn%t a voting issue &ecause effects is
inevita&le and t!ey are not to)ical &y effects" &ut # # #
1$ -!ese 'arrants contradict eac! ot!er# =irst t!ey say t!at all )lans !ave to
&e to)ical &y effects" t!en t!ey say t!at t!eir )lan isn%t effects to)ical# +ot!
'arrants s!ould &e reIected &ecause t!ey undercut eac! ot!er#
3$ ,ffects -o)icality is not inevita&le# -!e Affirmative could transfer
financial resources directly to Cu&a# -!is 'ould allo' affirmatives to claim
advantages lie Cu&an Democracy and ,conomy" and only taes one ste) so
it 'ould not &e to)ical &y t!e )lan%s effects#
1$ ,ffects -o)icality is a reason to vote .egative# -!e affirmative is
attem)ting to &end t!e rules of to)icality unfairly in favor of affirmative
teams# -!e Iudge is o&ligated to reIect t!is effort to mae de&ate
im&alanced#
4$ -o)icality as a &urden reEuires t!at t!e )lan on its face &e to)ical#
-o)icality is a )rocedural issue t!at Iudges loo at first H asing t!emselves"
does t!e )lan fall 'it!in t!e resolution H t!en only after t!is ans'er does
t!e Iudge loo to solvency# -!e affirmative t!erefore cannot )ossi&ly &e
to)ical &ecause t!e )lan isn%t a to)ical mandate#
&o8icality 7/9
Cuba #tha!ol 0#1
3.C ,xtension: A>t ?5 @Affirmative ;roundA 174
-!ey say t!at our inter)retation 'ould tae a'ay too muc! affirmative
ground" &ut # # #
1$ -!e Affirmative !as too many &enefits in de&ate# -!ey get t!e first and
last s)eec!" infinite )re) time" and t!ere is a literature &ias in favor of
c!anging t!e status Euo# 0imiting Affirmative ground can c!ec t!ese
advantages#
3$ -!e arguments t!at t!ey 'ant to exclude are core )arts of t!e to)ic# -!e
&est and most common argument against foreign aid in t!e literature is t!e
cost and effectiveness of t!at assistance#
&o8icality 9/9
Cuba #tha!ol 0#1
3.C ,xtension: A>t - ?2 @*easona&ilityA 175
'!at a @reasona&ly goodA inter)retation is# /eig!ing t!e costs and &enefits
of eac! inter)retation and Iudging t!e )lan &ased on t!e &est one is t!e only
'ay to )ut t!e round in t!e !ands of t!e de&aters" '!ic! encourages more
education and is more fair#
standard#
&o8icality 1/1
/FF
-o)icality Affirmative 172
2AC 1rontline: To$icality F Mexico Security..............................................................................*D;
2AC 1rontline: To$icality F +eneEuela ,emocracy....................................................................*DL
2AC 1rontline: To$icality F Cuba 2t3anol..................................................................................*1*
&o8icality 1/2
Me+ico Security /FF
3AC =rontline: -o)icality H Mexico Security 178
1$ /e Meet: -!e )lan is assistance designed to sta&iliGe Mexico%s economy
&y cracing do'n on corru)tion and drug violence# Our advantages don%t
!ave to &e to)ical" only t!e )lan" and on face 'e are economic assistance#
3$ Counter-6nter)retation: ,conomic engagement is economic assistance
t!at !el)s 'it! security goals
-A*.O== A.D .O/,0S" 74
T3ere are five maIor cate-ories of forei-n assistance: bilateral <evelo$ment ai<> economic
assistance su$$ortin- =.S. $olitical an< security -oals> 3umanitarian ai<> multilateral economic
contributions> an< military ai<. ,ue lar-ely to t3e recent im$lementation t&o ne& forei-n ai<
initiatives K t3e Millennium C3allen-e Cor$oration an< t3e 9lobal A0,S 0nitiative K bilateral
<evelo$ment assistance 3as become t3e lar-est cate-ory of =.S. ai<.
1$ Counter Standards:
a$ Affirmative ground: -!eir inter)retation forces t!e affirmative to de&ate
only a&out t!e Mexican economy# 6nter)reting t!e resolution t!is 'ay
'ould mae de&ate stale" and t!e negative could out'eig! affirmatives 'it!
security-&ased disadvantages# -!e 'ay to &alance t!e com)etition" and to
ena&le students to learn more in de&ate" is to !ave a diversity of Harms
scenarios to argue#
&$ ,ducation: -!e to)ic is a&out foreign engagement 'it! multi)le
countries# 6f t!e only arguments every round 'ere generic economy
arguments" 'e 'ould not learn anyt!ing a&out Mexico" Cu&a" or FeneGuela#
&o8icality 2/2
Me+ico Security /FF
3AC =rontline: -o)icality H Mexico Security 179
4$ .o a&use: According to our solvency evidence" t!e )lan 'ould &e
im)lemented &y (SA6D" '!ic! is t!e federal agency t!at administers
economic assistance#
-A*.O== A.D .O/,0S" 74
T3e =.S. A-ency for 0nternational ,evelo$ment (=SA0,) m ana-es t3e bul? o f bilateral
economic assistanceA t3e Treasury ,e$artment 3an<les most multilateral ai<A an< t3e
,e$artment of ,efense (,J,) an< t3e State ,e$artment a<minister military an< ot3er security!
relate< $ro-rams. T3e Millennium C3allen-e Cor$oration is a ne& forei-n ai< a-ency create< in
2DD/. T3e ouse 0nternational 6elations an< Senate 1orei-n 6elations Committees 3ave
$rimary con-ressional res$onsibility for aut3oriEin- forei-n ai< $ro-rams &3ile t3e ouse an<
Senate A$$ro$riations 1orei-n J$erations Subcommittees mana-e bills a$$ro$riatin- most
forei-n assistance fun<s.
5$ Mixing &urdens: -!ey reEuire you to loo at our Harms and Solvency
&efore determining if 'e are to)ical# 0oo at t!e )lan text alone: if t!e )lan
gives financial assistance to one of t!e t!ree to)ical countries" t!en t!e
Affirmative must &e -o)ical#
2$ Default to reasona&ility: it%s im)ossi&le for t!e Affirmative to 'in t!e
round on to)icality" so 'e s!ould only need to )rovide a good inter)retation
rat!er t!an t!e &est one# 6f &ot! sides are )re)ared to de&ate" you s!ould
resolve t!e de&ate on su&stantive issues instead of to)icality#
&o8icality 1/4
,e!e-uela De)ocracy /FF
3AC =rontline: -o)icality H FeneGuela Democracy 17<
1$ /e Meet: Our 1AC )roves t!at FeneGuela 'ill acce)t t!e aid and meet t!e
conditions" meaning t!e )lan results in assistance transferring to
FeneGuela#
3$ Counter-6nter)retation: ,ngagement reEuires conditioning aid on
fulfilling certain reEuirements &efore t!e assistance is received#
-D6F,06S" 72
(+assili?i> Masters stu<ent of 2uro$ean Stu<ies at Colle-e of 2uro$e in 7russelsA #T3e 2uro$ean
=nion5s 1orei-n :olicy To&ar<s Cuba: 0t is Time to Tie t3e Cnot>'
3tt$://&&&8.miami.e<u/eucenter/TEivelisfinal.$<f)
T3e common $osition 3as ex$resse< t3e $olicy of #constructive en-a-ement' an< it 3as been t3e
bac?bone of 2=!Cuba relations since 1LL8. Accor<in- to t3e %e& 2n-lan< 0nternational an<
Com$arative Ba& Annual> #constructive en-a-ement' is <efine< by #active tra<e an< extensive
<i$lomatic relations in 3o$e t3at eventually t3e un!<emocratic country &ill 3ave to acce<e to t3e
concerns of t3e international community.' . T3e 2= 3as / in fact maintaine< an active <ialo-ue
&it3 Cuba &3ile t3e Member States en-a-e< in tra<e an< investment &it3 t3e islan<. T3is
a$$roac3 im$lies a con<itionality by &3ic3 Cuba is <enie< t3e formaliEation of its alrea<y
extensive relations &it3 t3e 2= until certain $rereGuisites 3ave been fulfille<. T3e <efinition of
#constructive en-a-ement' im$lies a certain reluctance on be3alf of t3e 2= to $lay an active role
in t3e facilitation of a transition in Cuba. 2ven t3ou-3 t3e obIective is to ac3ieve
<emocratiEation an< res$ect of 3uman ri-3ts> t3e 2uro$ean =nion <oes not commit to a
frame&or? in &3ic3 it &ill ai< t3e country to reac3 t3ese obIectives. A< 3oc <evelo$ment ai< 3as
been t3e main 2uro$ean effort to ac3ieve t3ese -oals> but t3e lac? of an institutionaliEation of
t3is ai<> &it3 clear lon-!term -oals an< $roIects $resents an obstacle to effective results. Some
aut3ors 3ave ar-ue< t3at t3e ne&ly establis3e< $olicy of #constructive en-a-ement' re<uce< t3e
2=5s commitment to $rovi<e Cuba &it3 <evelo$ment ai<> by $ointin- at t3e <ramatic re<uction
in Community ai<> from *D million ecus in 1LL5 to . million ecus in 1LL;> L coinci<in- &it3 t3e
a<o$tion of t3e Common :osition. An 2= official confirme< t3at #t3e <ramatic re<uction of ai<
&as a clear $olitical move.' 1D 0nstea< of committin- to a coo$eration> &3ic3 &oul< favor
$ro-ress in t3e $olitical an< economic situation in Cuba> t3e 2= im$oses con<itionality on t3e
-rantin- of a formaliEe< frame&or? of coo$eration. 2<uar<o :erera <ifferentiates bet&een t&o
<ifferent ty$es of con<itionality. T3e first one is mutually a-ree< to by t&o $arties> <urin- t3e
establis3ment an< <efinition of t3eir coo$eration. T3e secon< ty$e of con<itionality is
unilaterally im$ose< an< is not subIect to an a-reement. 11 Jne coul< say t3at t3e con<itionality
im$lie< in Cotonou or in a coo$eration a-reement si-ne< by t3e 2uro$ean =nion &it3 any t3ir<
country Gualifies as t3e first ty$e of con<itionality> &3ereas t3e con<itionality a$$lie< to Cuba
t3rou-3 t3e Common :osition &oul< Gualify in t3e secon< cate-ory> as it im$lies t3e
establis3ment of certain $recon<itions> &3ic3 once fulfille<> &ill result in certain benefits for t3e
receivin- country. T3is ty$e of con<itionality is <irecte< to&ar<s freeEin- t3e $rocess of
ne-otiation until t3e country 3as fulfille< certain criteria> unli?e t3e first &3ere t3e <onor
country 3el$s t3e reci$ient reac3 t3e a-ree<!u$on -oals.
&o8icality 2/4
3AC =rontline: -o)icality H FeneGuela Democracy 117
1$ 4refer our 6nter)retation:
a$ 4ro)er 0imits: Defining @engagementA as conditional is necessary to
focus t!e term on core literature# (nconditional assistance is used too
infreEuently to mae for a de&ata&le to)ic#
HAASS A.D O%S(006FA." 77
(6ic3ar<> ,irector of forei-n $olicy stu<ies at 7roo?in-s 0nstituteA Me-3an> 1ello& in forei-n
$olicy stu<ies at 7roo?in-s 0nstituteA #Terms of 2n-a-ement: Alternatives to :unitive :olicies>'
Survival> v. /2 n. 2> Summer>
3tt$://&&&.broo?in-s.e<u/`/me<ia/researc3/files/articles/2DDD/8/summer
Y2D3aass/2DDDsurvival.$<f)
T3e term ]en-a-ement5 &as $o$ularise< in t3e early 1L.D s ami< controversy about t3e 6ea-an
a<ministration5s $olicy of ]constructive en-a-ement5 to&ar<s Sout3 Africa. o&ever> t3e term itself
remains a source of confusion. 2xce$t in t3e fe& instances &3ere t3e =S 3as sou-3t to isolate a re-ime or
country> America ar-uably ]en-a-es5 states an< actors all t3e time sim$ly by interactin- &it3 t3em. To be a
meanin-ful subIect of analysis> t3e term ]en-a-ement5 must refer to somet3in- more s$ecific t3an a $olicy
of ]non!isolation5. As use< in t3is article> ]en-a-ement5 refers to a forei-n!$olicy strate-y &3ic3 <e$en<s to
a si-nificant <e-ree on $ositive incentives to ac3ieve its obIectives. Certainly> it <oes not $reclu<e t3e
simultaneous use of ot3er forei-n!$olicy instruments suc3 as sanctions or military force: in $ractice> t3ere
is often consi<erable overla$ of strate-ies> $articularly &3en t3e termination or liftin- of sanctions is use<
as a $ositive in<ucement. Vet t3e <istin-uis3in- feature of American en-a-ement strate-ies is t3eir
reliance on t3e extension or $rovision of incentives to s3a$e t3e be3aviour of countries &it3 &3ic3 t3e =S
3as im$ortant <isa-reements. To<ay5s ra$i<ly -lobalisin- &orl<> no lon-er beset by Col< 4ar
com$etitions> creates ne& $ossibilities for en-a-ement as a forei-n!$olicy o$tion. 0n $articular> t3e
-ro&in- reco-nition of t3e <ra&bac?s of $unitive $olicies in t3is ne& environment 3as s$urre< a searc3
for alternative strate-ies. T3ere are increasin- <oubts about t3e &is<om of usin- sanctions> $articularly
&3en exerte< unilaterally in a -lobalise< &orl< economy> to <issua<e $roblem re-imes from t3eir
a-en<as. %ot only 3as t3e recor< of sanctions in forcin- c3an-e been $oor> but t3e costs of suc3 $olicies to
civilian $o$ulations an< American commercial interests 3as often been substantial. @ust as fait3 in
sanctions 3as been s3a?en> t3e limits of military force 3ave been ex$ose<: <es$ite relentless bombin-s>
Sa<<am ussein remains in $o&er> an< events in Cosovo <emonstrate 3o& even t3e most carefully
orc3estrate< military cam$ai-n can result in serious collateral <ama-es. Moreover> t3e <issolution of Col<
4ar ali-nments 3as bot3 o$ene< ne& o$$ortunities for en-a-ement strate-ies an< create< ne& rationales
for t3em. . . . 2n-a-ement may be con<itional &3en it entails a ne-otiate< series of exc3an-es> suc3 as
&3ere t3e =S exten<s $ositive in<ucements for c3an-es un<erta?en by t3e tar-et country. Jr en-a-ement
may be uncon<itional if it offers mo<ifications in =S $olicy to&ar<s a country &it3out t3e ex$licit
ex$ectation t3at a reci$rocal act &ill follo&. 9enerally> con<itional en-a-ement is -eare< to&ar<s a
-overnmentA uncon<itional en-a-ement &or?s &it3 a country5s civil society or $rivate sector in t3e 3o$es
of $romotin- forces t3at &ill eventually facilitate coo$eration . Arc3itects of en-a-ement strate-ies can
c3oose from a &i<e variety of incentives. 2conomic en-a-ement mi-3t offer tan-ible incentives suc3 as
ex$ort cre<its> investment insurance or $romotion> access to tec3nolo-y> loans an< economic ai<.
&o8icality 3/4
&$ ;overnment-s)ecific: Our definition is t!e one t!e (#S# federal
government uses# ,conomic ,ngagement reEuires conditioning funds on
)olicy c!anges &y receiving countries so t!at democratic c!anges are made
&efore funds are received#
(#S# D,4A*-M,.- O= S-A-," 7<
(#43at is Total 2conomic 2n-a-ementR>' 3tt$://2DD1!2DDL.state.-ov/e/eeb/L2L.8.3tm)
Total 2conomic 2n-a-ement see?s to inte-rate an< coor<inate all =.S. economic instruments
an< $ro-rams into our re-ional an< country strate-ies. T3e 7ureau of 2conomic> 2ner-y an<
7usiness Affairs5 (227) broa< cross!section of economic <isci$lines> intera-ency contacts> an<
ex$ertise in suc3 areas as tra<e> finance> ener-y> <evelo$ment> trans$ortation> an<
telecommunications 3el$ ensure t3is coor<ination. 227 is actively involve< in t3e entire ran-e
of international economic issues affectin- America5s security an< &ell!bein-. Jur $riorities
exten< from securin- reliable> sustainable ener-y su$$lies to increasin- mar?et access for =.S.
-oo<s an< services. :rotection of American interests> suc3 as intellectual $ro$erty ri-3ts> fair
$lay in international business> an< s3uttin- <o&n terrorist access to financial net&or?s> is not
only $art of our &or?> it is t3e foun<ation on &3ic3 our efforts rest. 7ut $romotin- =.S.
economic an< security interests is not a s3ort!term en<eavorA <ealin- creatively &it3 emer-in-
mar?ets an< alleviatin- $overty are $riorities t3at are even more im$ortant in t3e era of ra$i<
-lobaliEation t3an t3ey &ere in t3e &a?e of 4orl< 4ar 00. To Guote 1ran?lin ,. 6oosevelt: #True
in<ivi<ual free<om cannot exist &it3out economic security an< in<e$en<ence. :eo$le &3o are
3un-ry an< out of a Iob are t3e stuff of &3ic3 <ictators3i$s are ma<e.' :overty an< $olitical
unrest &al? 3an<!in!3an<> an< too many countries5 economic situations offer little 3o$e to t3eir
citiEens. o&ever> t3e economic lan<sca$e <oes not nee< to remain <ormant. 4e believe> t3e
cro$ of economic security> in<ivi<ual $ros$erity an< $olitical stability can be -ro&n t3rou-3
total economic en-a-ement. Total economic en-a-ement loo?s beyon< t3e current $ractice of
usin- financial <evelo$ment assistance as t3e only ox at t3e $lo&. 4e ?no& t3at <evelo$in-
countries o&n t3e ?eys to t3eir o&n economic success. @ust as <emocracy relies on t3e e<ucate<
an< active common man> so a 3ealt3y economy rests on t3e liberate< in<ivi<ual. 6onal< 6ea-an
summe< it u$ &ell: #4e &3o live in free mar?et societies believe t3at -ro&t3> $ros$erity an<
ultimately 3uman fulfillment> are create< from t3e bottom u$> not t3e -overnment <o&n. #Jnly
&3en t3e 3uman s$irit is allo&e< to invent an< create> only &3en in<ivi<uals are -iven a
$ersonal sta?e in <eci<in- economic $olicies an< benefitin- from t3eir success F Jnly t3en can
societies remain economically alive> <ynamic> $ro-ressive> an< free.' Jur -oal> t3erefore> must
be t3e creation of t3e ri-3t con<itions for in<ivi<ual economic -ro&t3 an< success. 4e must
cultivate con<itions for $rivate sector -ro&t3> investment an< tra<e. T3is cannot be
accom$lis3e< t3rou-3 Jfficial ,evelo$ment Assistance (J,A) fun<s alone. 1orei-n assistance
must su$$ort a <evelo$in- country5s o&n effort to im$rove t3eir economic climate.
&o8icality 4/4
4$ -!ere is no to)ic ex)losion &ecause economic engagement can include
)ositive conditions" &ut not negative ones#
MAS-A.D(.O" 71
(Mic3ael> :rofessor of 9overnment at ,artmout3A #T3e Strate-y of 2conomic 2n-a-ement:
T3eory an< :ractice>' 2conomic 0nter<e$en<ence an< 0nternational Conflict: %e& :ers$ectives
on an 2n<urin- ,ebate> $. 1./!5)
Muc3 of t3e attention in $olitical science to t3e Guestion of inter<e$en<ence an< conflict focuses
at t3e systemic level> on ar-uments an< evi<ence lin?in- t3e ex$ansion of economic exc3an-e
amon- states on t3e one 3an< to t3e exacerbation of international conflict or t3e facilitation of
international coo$eration on t3e ot3er. T3e a$$roac3 ta?en in t3is c3a$ter focuses instea< at t3e
state level> on t3e ex$ansion of economic inter<e$en<ence as a tool of state craft. =n<er &3at
circumstances <oes t3e cultivation of economic ties> t3at is> t3e fosterin- of economic
inter<e$en<ence as a conscious state strate-y> lea< to im$ortant an< $re<icable c3an-es in t3e
forei-n $olicy be3avior of a tar-et stateR Stu<ents of economic statecraft refer to t3is strate-y
variously as economic en-a-ement> economic in<ucement> economic <i$lomacy> $ositive
sanctions> $ositive economic lin?a-e> or t3e use of economic #carrots' instea< of stic?s. Critics of
t3e strate-y call it economic a$$easement.
5$ .o case meets t!eir inter)retation: -!e .egative could al'ays 'in t!at
t!e ot!er country refuses t!e aid or fails to im)lement c!anges" and t!is
'ould mae every Affirmative non-to)ical &ecause no )lan can guarantee
t!e ot!er country 'ill coo)erate#
rat!er t!an t!e &est one# 6f &ot! sides !ave ground and arguments" you
s!ould resolve t!e de&ate on su&stantive issues instead of to)icality#

&o8icality 1/3
Cuba #tha!ol /FF
3AC =rontline: -o)icality H Cu&a ,t!anol 111
1$ /e Meet: -!e )lan ena&les t!e )urc!ase of sugarcane et!anol from Cu&a"
'!ic! creates a transfer of resources and an increase in economic
assistance# 6f our )lan isn%t to)ical" t!en no Cu&a )lan can &e to)ical
&ecause t!e current trade em&argo maes all economic activity 'it! Cu&a
illegal and t!e Affirmative 'ould lose on &asic solvency tae-outs#
3$ Counter-inter)retation: @6ncreaseA must &e )rogressive and measured
after a )eriod of time" not immediately after t!e c!ange# -!is is t!e
definition t!at government agencies use#
(S CO(*- O= A44,A0S =O* DC" 5
(#STAT2 J1 %24 VJ6C> 2T AB.> :2T0T0J%26S v. =.S. 2%+06J%M2%TAB :6JT2CT0J%
A92%CV> 62S:J%,2%T> %S6 MA%=1ACT=626S 6J=%,T!A7B2> 2T AB.>
0%T26+2%J6S>' l/n)
43ile t3e CAA <efines a Nmo<ificationN as any $3ysical or o$erational c3an-e t3at NincreasesN emissions>
it is silent on 3o& to calculate suc3 NincreasesN in emissions. /2 =.S.C. m ;/11(a)(/). Accor<in- to
-overnment $etitioners> t3e lac? of a statutory <efinition <oes not ren<er t3e term NincreasesN ambi-uous>
but merely com$els t3e court to -ive t3e term its Nor<inary meanin-.N See 2n-ine Mfrs.AssMnv.S.Coast
AirPualityM-mt.,ist.> 5/1 =.S. 2/8> 12/ S. Ct. 1;58> 1;81> 15. B. 2<. 2< 52L(2DD/)A 7lue&ater %et&or?>
*;D 1.*< at 1*A Am. 1e<Mn of 9ovMt 2m$loyees v. 9lic?man> */2 =.S. A$$. ,.C. ;> 215 1.*< ;> 1D (c2*)
(cc2*) (,.C. Cir. 2DDD). 6elyin- on t&o Nreal &orl<N analo-ies> -overnment $etitioners conten< t3at t3e
or<inary meanin- of NincreasesN reGuires t3e baseline to be calculate< from a $erio< imme<iately
$rece<in- t3e c3an-e. T3ey maintain> for exam$le> t3at in <eterminin- &3et3er a 3i-3!$ressure &eat3er
system NincreasesN t3e local tem$erature> t3e relevant baseline is t3e tem$erature imme<iately $rece<in-
t3e arrival of t3e &eat3er system> not t3e tem$erature five or ten years a-o. Similarly> (ccc/L) in
<eterminin- &3et3er a ne& en-ine NincreasesN t3e value of a car> t3e relevant baseline is t3e value of t3e
car imme<iately $rece<in- t3e re$lacement of t3e en-ine> not t3e value of t3e car five or ten years a-o
&3en t3e en-ine &as in $erfect con<ition. 2:A maintains t3at its c3oice of t3e ten!year loo?bac? $erio< is
entitle< to <eference un<er C3evron Ste$ 2 because it is base< on a $ermissible construction of t3e
ambi-uous term Nincreases.N 8; 1e<. 6e-. at .D>1LL. 2:A <is$utes t3e vali<ity of -overnment $etitionersM
analo-ies> $ointin- out> for exam$le> t3at if t3e &eat3er system arrives in t3e evenin-> it is ina$$ro$riate
to com$are t3e ni-3ttime tem$erature imme<iately follo&in- t3e arrival of t3e system to t3e <aytime
tem$erature imme<iately $rece<in- t3e arrival of t3e system. T3e im$ortant $oint is t3at t3e $erio<
imme<iately $rece<in- a c3an-e may not be analo-ous to t3e $erio< follo&in- t3e c3an-e an< t3us may
not yiel< a meanin-ful com$arison for t3e $ur$ose of <eterminin- &3et3er t3e c3an-e NincreasesN
emissions. ence> -overnment $etitionersM reliance on t3e Nor<inary meanin-N of NincreasesN fails to
a<<ress a $ractical reality. 0n<ee<> <urin- oral ar-ument> (ccc5D) counsel for -overnment $etitioners
a-ree< t3at t3e $rovision in t3e 1L.D rule for use of a Nmore re$resentativeN $erio< not imme<iately
$rece<in- t3e c3an-e is consistent &it3 t3e statutory lan-ua-e because some flexibility is nee<e< to
account for anomalous <isru$tions in o$erations. 0t follo&s t3at t3e statutory term NincreasesN <oes not
$lainly an< unambi-uously reGuire t3e baseline $erio< to imme<iately $rece<e t3e c3an-e. 6at3er> t3e
statute is silent or ambi-uous on 3o& to calculate baseline emissions> an< t3e issue is &3et3er t3e ten!
year loo? bac? $erio< is base< on a $ermissible inter$retation of t3e statute un<er C3evron Ste$ 2.
&o8icality 2/3
Cuba #tha!ol /FF
1$ 4refer our inter)retation:
A$ ;overnment context: -!e (#S# government !as determined t!at
measuring immediately after t!e c!ange is meaningless &ecause t!is does
not tae into account t!e overall c!anges resulting from t!e )olicy# So it is
more reasona&le to evaluate t!e )olicy after a )eriod of time#
/O*DS A.D 4H*AS,S" 5
(Cumulative Su$$lementary :am$3let> v. 2Da> $.2L5)
Cal.A$$.2 ,ist. 1LL1. Term #increase>' as use< in statute -ivin- t3e 2ner-y Commission
mo<ification Iuris<iction over any alteration> re$lacement> or im$rovement of eGui$ment t3at
results in #increase' of 5D me-a&atts or more in electric -eneratin- ca$acity of existin- t3ermal
$o&er $lant> refers to #net increase' in $o&er $lant5s total -eneratin- ca$acityA in <eci<in-
&3et3er t3ere 3as been t3e reGuisite 5D!me-a&att increase as a result of ne& units bein-
incor$orate< into a $lant> 2ner-y Commission cannot i-nore <ecreases in ca$acity cause< by
retirement or <eactivation of ot3er units at $lant. 4est5s Ann.Cal.:ub.6es.Co<e m 2512*.
+$ -o)ic ,ducation: *emoving trade em&argoes is ey to)ic literature in t!e
context of economic engagement# -o)ic ex)erts !ave determined t!at t!is is
t!e most im)ortant form of assistance#
HAASS" 3777
(6obert> ,irector of 1orei-n :olicy Stu<ies at 7roo?in-s 0nstituteA Survival> +ol /2> no. 2>
Summer)
Arc3itects of en-a-ement strate-ies can c3oose from a &i<e variety of incentives. 2conomic
en-a-ement mi-3t offer tan-ible incentives suc3 as ex$ort cre<its> investment insurance or
$romotion> access to tec3nolo-y> loans or economic ai<. Jt3er eGually useful economic
incentives involve t3e removal of $enalties suc3 as tra<e embar-oes> investment bans or 3i-3
tariffs> &3ic3 3ave im$e<e< economic relations bet&een t3e =nite< States an< t3e tar-et
country. 1acilitate< entry into t3e -lobal economic arena an< t3e institutions t3at -overn it ran?
amon- t3e most $otent incentives in to<ay5s -lobal mar?et. Similarly> $olitical en-a-ement can
involve t3e lure of <i$lomatic reco-nition> access to re-ional or international institutions> t3e
sc3e<ulin- of summits bet&een lea<ers F or t3e termination of t3ese benefits.
&o8icality 3/3
Cuba #tha!ol /FF
4$ ,ffects -o)icality is not a voting issue# ,very )olicy !as multi)le ste)s
from t!e signing of t!e &ill to t!e delivery of t!e assistance" including
transfer of funds" verification of delivery" and enforcing t!e terms# -!eir
inter)retation does not )revent ,ffects -o)icality# And 'e are not to)ical &y
effectsP our evidence )roves t!at ending t!e em&argo creates an immediate
maret for sugarcane et!anol#
5$ -!eir inter)retation ills ground# =orcing t!e Affirmative to defend only
a transfer of cas! means t!ere 'ould &e no lin ans'er to t!e S)ending
Disadvantage# Allo'ing a little Affirmative flexi&ility is necessary to &alance
t!e de&ate" and ot!er 'ords in t!e resolution limit t!e num&er of )ossi&le
)lans#
rat!er t!an t!e &est one# 6f &ot! sides !ave ground and arguments" you
s!ould resolve t!e de&ate on su&stantive issues instead of to)icality#

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