5/1/2014 AFGHANISTAN TIMES

http://www.afghanistantimes.af/opinion_details.php?oid=63 1/3
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Opinion by By Zulfiqar Shah
An Afghanistan endgame climax
What can be a climax of Afghanistan endgame? Inching towards stability or an anti-climaxone brow
the fears, which are widely reported from this ill-fated land and the victim of most of the conflicting global
interests of our times.
The changing of guards in Afghanistan after the too closer presidential elections, possibilities of some
new trends in regional alliance after a major shift in the US-Iran relations, and the growing row between
Russia, EU and US over the issue of Crimea are the major challenges that Afghanistan and its
neighbors need to brush wise upon in the post ISAF withdrawal scenario. None, however, has reached the final
resolution for an arrangement that provide a sustainable stability and peace in this mountainous land that may be
equally acceptable to the majority of the concerned groups within Afghanistan and the international stakeholders.
A new state;
The phenomenal injection of development funds in Afghanistan is no doubt of a specific importance however the
appropriate plan to develop Afghan state apparatus, and the society, in accordance with its socio-economic and ethno-
linguistic realities equally acceptable to almost all major ethno-linguistic and sectarian groups is the bigger most
challenge to the people.
Afghanistan is an ethno-linguistic, cultural, and sectarian diversity encamped to the specified territorial localities that
include one or more provinces in each major ethno-linguistic group. In the given context, a federal model
accommodating ethno-linguistically concentrated zones of the provinces, vertical and horizontal participations of tribes,
ethnicities, and religious groups will be the only way to inch toward the harmonized internal politics that only can replace
the reckless competition over the power, resources, and thereby geo-strategic territories.
Moreover, the challenges like proportionate participation of all ethnic groups in the statecraft to ensure participatory
human chemistry of the state institutions is what a real goal the friends of Afghanistan should achieve for the long-term
interests of Afghan people. Nonetheless, by any means the new statehood in Afghanistan must be liberal. It is a
challenge most of all challenges that has been always there to house the liberals from all ethno-linguistic and sectarian
groups in the state fold so that the menace of Taliban terror may be shoved towards nonexistence and irrelevance.
The important most would be the strengthening of local government system, especially the question of democratizing
the traditional jirga and its representation through any manner and its specific constitutional say in the parliamentary
system.
Changing global matrix;
The recent developments in the South Asian and Central Asian region as well as Eurasian events in the aftermath of
Crimean secession may trigger the eyeball-to-eyeball situation between North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and
non-NATO forces. It potentially and probably may leave adverse impacts on Afghanistan by casting a devastative shadow
over whatsoever have been achieved by the Afghan people and the international community together.
The one-eighty degree shift in United States and Iran relations was something out of blue for the rest of the world. The
development has much in store to change the matrix of power-balance regarding Afghanistan in the perspective of the
South Asian relevance of the geo-strategic realities.
This no doubt will sideline Pakistan and reduce its geo-strategic exception vis--vis Central Asia and Afghanistan, hence
will help out the Afghan people to safeguard their long term interest especially from the permanent interference by
neighboring countries like Pakistan.
The new US-Iran development that has to reach at a new honeymoon yet, will further strengthen Indias role in the
development in Afghanistan and well-known Northern Alliance. Hence, the centre stage of the new Afghan politics would
be the Northwestern, Southwestern, Southeastern, and Central Afghanistan; however, the role of broader Eastern
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http://www.afghanistantimes.af/opinion_details.php?oid=63 2/3
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An Afghanistan
endgame climax
What can be a climax of Afghanistan
endgame? Inching towards stability or
an anti-climaxone brow the fears,
which are widely reported from this ill-fated land
and the victim of most of the conflicting global ....
READ MORE
The murderers of
change
The country was torn apart by a war, a
misfortune imposed by giant enemies,
some holding guns for their ideology
an.... READ MORE
Womens melancholies
Afghanistan celebrates the
International Womens Day as the
increasing violence against women
has been haunti.... READ MORE
Pakistans mysterious
love for Indian anti-
corruption crus
When electoral preparation is going on
in full swing for upcoming general elections in both
Afghanistan and India, the cadres are busy.... READ
MORE
Afghanistan and most specifically Northeastern Afghanistan Pasthun can never be undermined, as they form the
majority ethnic group. Therefore, the patriot Pashtun Afghans who uphold the interests of Afghanistan over Pakistan and
its military outfit in the form of Taliban need to be accommodated in the future Afghan politics appropriately. Any debacle
or under estimation in this regards would give an air of strength to the factors of destabilization, who does not wish to
see any stable and harmonious Afghanistan. Besides, the recent development of growing row between NATO nations
and Russia over Crimeas annexation with Russia can adversely hit at the prospects for a new Afghanistan.
A moment of caution;
This is a moment of high caution for the people as well as friends of Afghanistan. Any step in the wrong direction by the
political leadership of Afghanistan as well as the engaged international community may cause a chaos or possible
reversal for over upcoming decade.
All eyes are on Afghan elections in the hinterland and on Crimea fiasco on the global chessboard. Any wrong move by
the NATO members and any further intrusion in the Slav Europe by the Russia may put the Washington, Brussels, and
Moscow at unending odds that may create anarchy in the international community. Such a situation will ultimately ruin
the dreams of Afghan people, their friends and peace lovers who want to see Central and South Asia sustain-ably stable
regions for the brighter prospects for the future.
Any ants in the post-Crimea East-West power standoff may trigger a new firework, turning the whole wine-cup of the
Central-and-South Asia upside down. Let the world leadership think wise and let the Afghan leadership step ahead with
unavoidable caution. The transparent elections in Afghanistan, USA-Iran understanding, peacemaker, and pro-
development role of India and peace in Eurasia is the only road that may lead all the stakeholders to the uncomplicated
fruitful means and ends.
Shah is a Pakistan born Sindhi refugee activist, analyst, and journalist staying in India. www.zulfiqarshah.com
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