What Is the Butterfly Effect?

The butterfly effect is a term used in chaos theory to describe how small changes to a seemingly
unrelated thing or condition (also known as an initial condition) can affect large, complex
systems. The term comes from the suggestion that the flapping of a butterfly's wings in South
America could affect the weather in Texas, meaning that the tiniest influence on one part of a
system can have a huge effect on another part. Taken more broadly, the butterfly effect is a way
of describing how, unless all factors can be accounted for, large systems like the weather remain
impossible to predict with total accuracy because there are too many unknown variables to track.
Origins in Weather Prediction
The concept of the butterfly effect is attributed to Edward Norton Lorenz, a mathematician and
meteorologist. On a particular day in the winter of 1961, Lorenz wanted to re-examine a
sequence of data coming from his model. Instead of restarting the entire run, he decided to save
time and restart the run from somewhere in the middle. Using data printouts, he entered the
conditions at some point near the middle of the previous run, and re-started the model
calculation. What he found was very unusual and unexpected. The data from the second run
should have exactly matched the data from the first run. While they matched at first, the runs
eventually began to diverge dramatically the second run losing all resemblance to the first
within a few "model" months. A sample of the data from his two runs in shown below:

At first Lorenz thought that a vacuum tube had gone bad in his computer, a Royal McBee an
extremely slow and crude machine by today's standards. After discovering that there was no
malfunction, Lorenz finally found the source of the problem. To save space, his printouts only
showed three digits while the data in the computer's memory contained six digits. Lorenz had
entered the rounded-off data from the printouts assuming that the difference was
inconsequential. For example, even today temperature is not routinely measured within one part
in a thousand.
This led Lorenz to realize that long-term weather forecasting was doomed. His simple model
exhibits the phenomenon known as "sensitive dependence on initial conditions." This is
sometimes referred to as the butterfly effect. Sensitive dependence means that the development
of the system depends on a wide number of factors. To simplify his findings, Lorenz coined the
butterfly explanation that has since become so widely known.

ATAU
History[edit]
In 1961, Lorenz was using a numerical computer model to rerun a weather prediction, when, as a
shortcut on a number in the sequence, he entered the decimal 0.506 instead of entering the full
0.506127. The result was a completely different weather scenario.
[2]
In 1963 Lorenz published a
theoretical study of this effect in a well-known paper called Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow.
[3]
(As
noted in the paper, the calculations were performed on a Royal McBeeLPD-30 computing
machine.[1]) Elsewhere he said
[citation needed]
that "One meteorologist remarked that if the theory
were correct, one flap of a seagull's wings could change the course of weather forever."
Following suggestions from colleagues, in later speeches and papers Lorenz used the more
poetic butterfly. According to Lorenz, when he failed to provide a title for a talk he was to present
at the 139th meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in 1972, Philip
Merilees concocted Does the flap of a butterflys wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas? as a
title. Although a butterfly flapping its wings has remained constant in the expression of this
concept, the location of the butterfly, the consequences, and the location of the consequences
have varied widely.
[4]

The phrase refers to the idea that a butterfly's wings might create tiny changes in
the atmosphere that may ultimately alter the path of a tornado or delay, accelerate or even
prevent the occurrence of a tornado in another location. Note that the butterfly does not power or
directly create the tornado. The flap of the wings is a part of the initial conditions; one set of
conditions leads to a tornado while the other set of conditions doesn't. The flapping wing
represents a small change in the initial condition of the system, which causes a chain of events
leading to large-scale alterations of events (compare: domino effect). Had the butterfly not
flapped its wings, the trajectory of the system might have been vastly different - it's possible that
the set of conditions without the butterfly flapping its wings is the set that leads to a tornado.
Other Systems
The butterfly effect applies to systems beyond weather; indeed, any complicated system may be
vulnerable to seemingly small factors. For example, the travel of asteroids in the solar system
can be difficult to predict. This is because the paths of asteroids can be affected by many
different gravitational pulls throughout the solar system, including the gravity of the sun, of
planets, of moons, and even other asteroids.
In human behavior, it may be possible for small initial changes to render behavior unpredictable.
For example, the loved ones of someone who has committed suicide are often left wondering
what could have caused the death. They might agonize over the myriad small details they did not
see, but which could have predicted the suicide. The butterfly effect might suggest that a huge
range of experiences, dispositions, and genetic, physical, and emotional factors were too many
to account for in the person's actions.
ATAU:
, e.g. a butterfly flapping its wings in South America can affect the weather in Central Park. The
question then arises why does a set of completely deterministic equations exhibit this
behavior? After all, scientists are often taught that small initial perturbations lead to small
changes in behavior. This was clearly not the case in Lorenz's model of the weather. The answer
lies in the nature of the equations; they were nonlinear equations. While they are difficult to
solve, nonlinear systems are central to chaos theory and often exhibit fantastically complex and
chaotic behavior.

EXAMPLE
The butterfly effect is most familiar in terms of weather; it can easily be demonstrated in standard
weather prediction models, for example.
[5]

The potential for sensitive dependence on initial conditions (the butterfly effect) has been studied
in a number of cases in semiclassical and quantum physics including atoms in strong fields and
the anisotropic Kepler problem.
[6][7]
Some authors have argued that extreme (exponential)
dependence on initial conditions is not expected in pure quantum treatments;
[8][9]
however, the
sensitive dependence on initial conditions demonstrated in classical motion is included in the
semiclassical treatments developed by Martin Gutzwiller
[10]
and Delos and co-workers.
[11]

Other authors suggest that the butterfly effect can be observed in quantum systems.
Karkuszewski et al. consider the time evolution of quantum systems which have slightly different
Hamiltonians. They investigate the level of sensitivity of quantum systems to small changes in
their given Hamiltonians.
[12]
Poulin et al. presented a quantum algorithm to measure fidelity
decay, which "measures the rate at which identical initial states diverge when subjected to
slightly different dynamics". They consider fidelity decay to be "the closest quantum analog to the
(purely classical) butterfly effect".
[13]
Whereas the classical butterfly effect considers the effect of
a small change in the position and/or velocity of an object in a given Hamiltonian system, the
quantum butterfly effect considers the effect of a small change in the Hamiltonian system with a
given initial position and velocity.
[14][15]
This quantum butterfly effect has been demonstrated
experimentally.
[16]
Quantum and semiclassical treatments of system sensitivity to initial conditions
are known as quantum chaos.
[8][14]

Counter Theories
Since its development, a number of contradictory theories have been described in opposition to
chaos theory and the butterfly effect. These argue that the large systems in question, while being
immensely complex, still follow some sort of order, and therefore do not merit the descriptor
"chaos." While the number of factors may be large, it is suggested, they are nevertheless
quantifiable and finite.
Although the mathematical explanation that Lorenz developed might show the possible effects of
a butterfly's wings on weather patterns, there is no evidence that actually proves it. Observation
has shown that the effects of a butterfly's wings seems confined to a very small, localized area.
Any large-scale effects seem to be dampened by the system at large.
Popular Culture
The concept of small variations producing widespread effects actually predates chaos theory.
Writers like Ray Bradbury were particularly interested in the repercussions that might occur if a
person traveled back in time and changed one small, insignificant detail. This concept has been
the basis of numerous films and stories.
The Butterfly Effect in Global Politics
Sometime back in 2000, Theresa LePore, had the idea to enlarge the typeface on the ballot
paper she was designing for Palm Beach voters in the US Presidential election, thinking it would
make it easier to read. Whether she had not had a good night's sleep, or had had one too many
cups of coffee that morning, we may never know, but for one reason or another she did not
notice that the new design, which now became two pages instead of one (and as a result was
most aptly named "the butterfly ballot") could confuse voters about which button to press to
register their vote.
As a result 19,120 voters punched holes for both Pat Buchanan and Al Gore, and their ballots
had to be thrown out. Another 3,407 people appeared to vote for Pat Buchanan, which he himself
found most surprising , expecting only a couple of hundred votes. The net result of Ms LePore's
oversight was that approximately 22,000 votes destined for Al Gore did not get counted. Had
they been counted, Florida would have fallen to Gore, and he would have become the next US
President.
Instead, the election for the whole US was now undecidable, and eventually the Supreme Court
settled the matter by selecting George W Bush to be President. If Gore had been elected, would
he have refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol on Global Warming? Would he have tacitly endorsed
Israeli policies towards Palestine? Would he have declared Iraq part of an "axis of evil" and
carried out a pre-emptive strike on the country, with unknown long-term consequences?
The world might be a very different place if the mental butterfly that flitted through Ms Lepore's
consciousness had not caused her to miss the problem with her new design.
=====================================================================================
Ada satu kasus menarik berkaitan dengan efek kupu-kupu ini. Al Gore, Wakil Presiden
(vice president) AS (1993-2001) di masa pemerintahan presiden Bill Clinton, adalah korban
Efek Kupu-Kupu di kancah politik. Ketika Gore menjadi calon presiden dari Partai
Demokrat berpasangan dengan Senator Joseph Lieberman pada tahun 2000, ia
dikalahkan secara menyakitkan pasangan Partai Republik George W. Bush, Gubernur
Texas yang berpasangan dengan Dick Cheney.Gore sesungguhnya memenangkan
popular vote lebih dari 500.000 suara dari sekitar 105 juta pemilih di AS. Namun, ia
gagal memenangkan electoral vote setelah 25 electoral votes di Negara bagian Florida
dinyatakan merupakan milik Bush. Gore merupakan kandidat presiden AS pertama yang
memenangkan popular vote tetapi kalah dalam electoral votes.
Penyumbang terbesar kegagalan Al Gore menjadi Presiden AS sesungguhnya akibat
Efek Kupu-Kupu yang dilakukan seorang desainer grafis. Pada tahun 2000, Theresa
LePore memiliki gagasan untuk memperbesar jenis huruf (font) yang terdapat pada kartu
pemilihan umum yang ia rancang untuk Pemilu Presiden AS di kawasan Palm Beach,
Florida, AS dengan alasan agar lebih mudah dibaca para pemilih. Namun, tanpa
disadarinya desain baru kartu dengan dua halaman yang sama itu telah membuat bingung
para pemilih tentang bagian mana yang seharusnya dicoblos.Sebagai hasilnya, 19.120
pemilih mencoblos gambar Pat Buchanan dan Al Gore sehingga kartu suara dinyatakan
tidak sah. Sejumlah 3,407 pemilih dinyatakan memilih Pat Buchanan, hal yang
mengejutkan Pat sendiri karena ia menduga hanya akan memperoleh ratusan pemilih
saja. Sehingga diperkirakan ada 22.000 suara untuk Al Gore yang tidak terhitung atau
salah coblos. Hasilnya seperti ditetapkan Mahkamah Agung AS bahwa George W. Bush
yang memenangkan electoral votes di Florida, AS dan berhak masuk ke Gedung Putih.
Sudah selayaknya, Bush berterima kasih atas jasa Theresa LePore.
Kasus lain yang kita hadapi sekarang adalah kasus pemanasan global yang terjadi karena
tindakan manusia yang merusak alam. Oleh karena itu sudah seharusnya kita
menanggapi serius fakta pemanasan global tersebut. Sekecil apapun perbuatan baik kita
akan membawa pengaruh besar pada dunia dan akan mendapatkan penghargaan besar di
mata Allah SWT.
"Telah nampak kerusakan di darat dan di laut disebabkan karena perbuatan tangan
manusia, supaya Allah merasakan kepada mereka sebahagian dari (akibat) perbuatan
mereka, agar mereka kembali (ke jalan yang benar)." (Q.S.Ar.Rum 30:41)
Tiga hal yang bisa kita simpulkan disini yaitu:

Berfikirlah sebelum bertindak karena semua akan memiliki efek kedepannya baik
ataupun buruk.
Selalu waspada dengan apa yang akan terjadi kedepan atas apa yang kita perbuat.
Jangan pernah lupa dengan hukum SEBAB AKIBAT.
Semoga bacaan ini bisa sedikit memperbanyak wawasan teman-teman semuanya ya ^_^
salam hangat !

There is an interesting case related to the butterfly effect . Al Gore , Vice President of the United
States (1993-2001) during the reign of President Bill Clinton , is the victim of a Butterfly Effect in the
political arena . When Gore to be the Democratic presidential nominee paired with Senator Joseph
Lieberman in 2000 , he defeated Republican painful pair of George W. Bush , Governor of Texas who
partnered with Dick Cheney.Gore actually won the " popular vote " more than 500,000 votes from
around 105 million voters in the U.S. . However , he failed to win the " electoral vote" after the 25
electoral votes in the state of Florida declared the property of Bush . Gore is the first U.S.
presidential candidate who won the " popular vote " but lost the " electoral votes " .
The biggest contributor to the failure of Al Gore become President of the United States actually due
to " Butterfly Effect " which was a graphic designer . In 2000 , Theresa Lepore had the idea to enlarge
the typeface ( font ) which is contained in the general election card which he designed for the U.S.
presidential election in the Palm Beach , Florida , USA on the grounds that it easier to read the voters
. However , without realizing new design cards with the same two pages that have made confused
voters about which part is supposed dicoblos.Sebagai result , 19 120 voters to cast an image of Pat
Buchanan and Al Gore that the sound card will be invalid . A number of 3,407 voters chose Pat
Buchanan stated , it is surprising Pat himself because he just assumed it would acquire hundreds of
voters . It is estimated that there are 22,000 votes for Al Gore were not counted or any piercing . The
result is like the U.S. Supreme Court determined that George W. Bush won the " electoral votes " in
Florida , the United States and entitled to enter the White House . It is appropriate , Bush thanked
the services of Theresa Lepore .