The True Crisis in the Asia-Pacific

By Michael Mazza Tuesday, April

23, 2013
Filed under: !rld atch
The Asia-Pacific"s #!st dan$er!us
crisis #ay %e $!in$ !&erl!!'ed
due t! (!rth )!rean threats*
+espite the ,%a#a
ad#inistrati!n"s -pi&!t" t! the
re$i!n, Asian allies .!rry that the
/nited 0tates .ill n!t c!ntinue t!
%e a steadfast partner*
(!rth )!rean %!#%ast has %een
usin$ up all !f the !1y$en in the
Asia-Pacific, %ut .hat #ay %e the
re$i!n"s #!st dan$er!us crisis is
ra$in$ !n a fe. hundred #iles t!
the s!uth* ith fr!nt pa$es
f!cused !n )i# 2!n$-un"s threats
and the /nited 0tates" sh!.s !f
f!rce, the !n$!in$ 0in!-2apanese
i#passe has $!ne !&erl!!'ed in
recent .ee's* 3&en s!, it is
difficult t! !&erstate the
i#p!rtance !f the latter c!nflict"s
l!n$-ter# i#plicati!ns f!r peace in
Asia*
As tensi!ns in the 3ast China 0ea
ha&e heated up !&er the past
year, analysts, 4!urnalists, and
%usiness#en ha&e %een as'in$
Cu5c 'h6n$ h!7n$ th8t s9 tr!n$
'hu &9c ch:u ;-Th<i B=nh +>?n$
Michael Mazza Th@ Ba 23 th<n$
A, 2013
(5p the!: !rld atch
Cu5c 'h6n$ h!7n$ n$uy hiB#
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cuIc cD th9c s9 o%G Huao Huen
E7! 0en'a'upniXu ($>q risu Mk
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cuIn &Z! #5t cu5c 1un$ Huanh &=
tranh chCp nh^n$ E7! E< 'hWn$
cD n$>ui hq
(h8t, Trun$ cuIc, Mk, T!a nWn$,
tranh chCp, ch6 HuyLn
TZu h7i $i<# Tc h T!a nWn$*
vnh: ara%ne.s
`ai BKc )inh, cu5c 1un$ E5t &ai
(h8t B7n &L 0en'a'upniXu ($>
t.! Huesti!ns: C!uld 2apan and
China really c!#e t! %l!.s !&er
the 0en'a'u w!r, in Chinese,
x+ia!yuyz {slandsq !uld the
/nited 0tates really all!. itself t!
%e dra.n int! a c!nflict !&er a
handful !f !%scure, uninha%ited
r!c'sq These Huesti!ns are %ased
!n an errant assu#pti!n that the
r!ilin$ c!nflict is, at heart, a%!ut
!.nership !f the 0en'a'us* {t is
n!t*
China"s |!al: 0ecurin$ CCP
readership at T!#e and A%r!ad
F!r Bei4in$, the c!nflict .ith 2apan
!&er the 0en'a'us ser&es t.!
$!als that e1tend far %ey!nd the
islands the#sel&es* The Chinese
C!##unist Party"s pri#ary
!%4ecti&e is t! stay in p!.er*
Ta&in$ l!n$ a$! 4ettis!ned the
ide!l!$ical f!undati!ns !f its
re$i#e, the CCP relies !n
deli&erin$ ec!n!#ic $r!.th and
!n its clai# t! a nati!nalist #antle
t! le$iti#ize its c!ntinuin$ rule*
0t!'in$ tensi!ns .ith .arti#e f!e
2apan has l!n$ %een a part !f
Bei4in$"s play%!!'* The play%!!'
als! includes a pr!pa$anda eff!rt
ai#ed at sustainin$ anti-2apan
$rie&ances, an eff!rt that
c!ntinues nearly }0 years after the
c!nclusi!n !f !rld ar {{ and
T!'y!"s ad!pti!n !f a pacifist
c!nstituti!n, and #!re than 30
years after 2apan %e$an pr!&idin$
ec!n!#ic aid t! China wT!'y! has
l!n$ %een China"s %i$$est d!n!rz*
+efendin$ Chinese territ!ry
a$ainst the wsupp!sedlyz !nce-
a$ain-i#perialist 2apan has %een
a p!litical .inner in China durin$
an !n$!in$ and uncertain
leadership transiti!n durin$ .hich
p!litical intri$ues ha&e at ti#es
uncharacteristically played !ut !n
the fr!nt pa$es !f Chinese
ne.spapers* ~ep!rts that
presu#pti&e president i 2inpin$
has %een #ana$in$ China"s
eff!rts in the 3ast China 0ea since
pri!r t! the 1th Party C!n$ress
last (!&e#%er are n!t surprisin$*
T!'y!"s purchase !f three !f the
0en'a'u {slands fr!# a pri&ate
!.ner last 0epte#%er pr!&ided
the CCP .ith a $!lden !pp!rtunity
t! present itself as the $uarant!r
!f China"s security in the face !f
)hi c_n$ thmn$ h BiBn nWn$
Trun$ cuIc E\ nDn$ lMn tr!n$
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cuen E7!q T!a )U sV th9c s9
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tr8t t9 HuIc tX Mk dn dKt thui h8u
chiXn &Z #uIn len n^a phYc h>n$
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thui hisn Efi, BKc )inh sV ph7i
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ch@ 'hWn$ ph7i tr!n$ &ai trg os@
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Tr= tin$ %u5t #isn$ nDi &ai n$>ui
ERn$ cCp 0in$ap!re n_# 2010
rSn$: oTrun$ cuIc lZ #5t n>ac
lan, &Z c<c n>ac 'h<c lZ n>ac
nhG, E:y lZ s9 th9co*
C<c n l9c c6a Trun$ cuIc nhS#
lZ# thay Ei th9c tX trMn #Nt ECt
whay trMn %iBnz 1un$ Huanh
0en'a'upniXu ($> lZ #5t phen &Z
#5t 'iBu cI $Kn$ tf! l8p th@ tr8n
t9 #ai - th@ tr8t t9 #Z tr!n$ ED
lu8t ph<p HuIc tX E>Fc hiBu &Z <p
dYn$ ch 'hi nD phYc &Y ch! lFi Pch
c6a Trun$ cuIc th@ tr8t t9 #Z
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tr<ch nhis# E\ lZ# nh> &8y* BSn$
&isc the! Eui c<c chPnh s<ch
n$Zy cZn$ EIi Eeu h T!a nWn$ &Z
BiBn nWn$, Trun$ cuIc cD #Ji
rapaci!us f!rei$n threats* i t!!'
that !pp!rtunity and ran .ith it*
The CCP n!t !nly sa. an
!pp!rtunity f!r a d!#estic p!litical
.in, %ut als! t! pursue its lar$er
desi$ns in Asia* China, it see#s,
is fed up .ith the p!st.ar, /*0*-
led internati!nal !rder and intent
!n !nce a$ain assu#in$ its
hist!rical p!siti!n as the xMiddle
)in$d!#*y This ti#e ar!und,
h!.e&er, Bei4in$ .ill rely !n ra.
p!.er rather than the #andate !f
hea&en* As Chinese then-f!rei$n
#inister an$ 2iechi t!ld his
0in$ap!rean c!unterpart in 2010,
xChina is a %i$ c!untry and !ther
c!untries are s#all c!untries, and
that"s 4ust a fact*y
China"s decisi!n t! shift t! a
#!re c!nfr!ntati!nal appr!ach
sh!uld set !ff alar# %ells in
ashin$t!n*
China"s atte#pt t! chan$e facts
!n the $r!und w!r .aterz ar!und
the 0en'a'us is part and parcel !f
its eff!rts t! create a ne. !rder
!ne in .hich internati!nal la.
h!lds s.ay !nly s! l!n$ as it
ser&es China"s interests, and in
.hich China n!t !nly has the
#ilitary p!.er t! c!erce and c!.
its nei$h%!rs %ut can $et a.ay
.ith d!in$ s!* {n pursuin$
increasin$ly c!nfr!ntati!nal
p!licies in the 3ast and 0!uth
China 0eas, China has all %ut
a%and!ned the pretense that it
prefers peaceful s!luti!ns t! the
re$i!n"s pr!%le#s* +ipl!#atic
appr!aches, apparently, .ere
prefera%le !nly until it %eca#e
clear that !ther parties t! territ!rial
disputes .ere n!t .illin$ t! si#ply
$i&e in t! Chinese de#ands, e&en
after a decade !f s#ile dipl!#acy
resulted in fa&!ra%le &ie.s !f
China acr!ss 0!utheast Asia*
{n the case !f the 0en'a'us,
China has passed up t.!
!pp!rtunities t! cal# tensi!ns*
,ne !f 0hinz! A%e"s first acts as
2apanese pri#e #inister .as t!
send an en&!y t! Bei4in$ .ith a
pers!nal letter f!r i* hile the
letter did n!t include c!ncrete
pr!p!sals f!r de-escalatin$ the
situati!n in the 3ast China 0ea, it
at least #ar'ed a dipl!#atic
c6a Trun$ cuIc h BiBn nWn$
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0en'a'upniXu ($> nS# tr!n$
phf# &i hisp >ac liMn #inh Mk -
(h8t, nh>n$ ashin$t!n cD &j
'hWn$ thPch l:# &Z! rKc rIi* 09
E7# %7! c6a %Z Clint!n 'hWn$
E>Fc 'hmn$ E[nh cWn$ 'hai 'hi
Th6 t>an$ A%e th_# ashin$t!n
hRi th<n$ 2* Th9c tX lZ tr!n$ suIt
cu5c hJp %<! chun$, Tn$ thIn$
Mk ,%a#a th8# chP 'hWn$ hL
%Dn$ $iD tai s9 %X tKc Trun$ -
!&erture !ne t! .hich Bei4in$
did n!t si$nificantly resp!nd*
T!'y!"s Fe%ruary ann!unce#ent
that a Chinese .arship had t.ice
xillu#inatedy 2apanese f!rces .ith
fire c!ntr!l radar pr!&ided China
.ith a #issed !pp!rtunity at de-
escalati!n as .ell* Bei4in$ c!uld
ha&e dis#issed !r !ther.ise
pu%licly repri#anded the !ffendin$
ship"s captain, .hich .!uld ha&e
de#!nstrated a clear desire t! re-
sta%ilize the 3ast China 0ea*
{nstead, Bei4in$ accused the
2apanese $!&ern#ent !f
disse#inatin$ lies* China, it
see#s, has little interest in parin$
%ac' its c!nfr!ntati!nal stance*
Bei4in$"s acti&ities in the 3ast
China 0ea, h!.e&er, are n!t
tar$eted at 2apan al!ne* As it has
else.here in Asia, China ai#s t!
challen$e the /nited 0tates"
c!##it#ent t! an ally* Alth!u$h
then-0ecretary !f 0tate Tillary
Clint!n sent a p!siti&e si$nal t!
the re$i!n .ith her asserti!n last
year that the 0en'a'u {slands are
c!&ered %y the /*0*-2apan treaty
!f alliance, ashin$t!n has f!r the
#!st part de#!nstrated a
palpa%le desire t! stay unin&!l&ed*
Clint!n"s assurance .as n!t
pu%licly restated .hen Pri#e
Minister A%e &isited ashin$t!n in
Fe%ruary* {ndeed, durin$ the 4!int
appearance %ef!re the press,
President ,%a#a did n!t e&en
hint at the !n$!in$ 0in!-2apanese
stand!ff at sea, let al!ne actually
#enti!n China !r the 0en'a'us*
Chinese #edia interpreted this as
an A#erican snu% t! the
2apanese leader, and n!t .ith!ut
4ustificati!n*
0ecretary !f 0tate 2!hn )erry did
#enti!n the 0en'a'us in his
re#ar's al!n$side 2apanese
F!rei$n Minister Fu#i! )ishida
durin$ the latter"s &isit t!
ashin$t!n, %ut !nly %y .ay !f
c!#pli#entin$ T!'y! f!r
e1ercisin$ restraint* There .as n!
su$$esti!n that China sh!uld d!
the sa#e* 0pea'in$ #!re
f!rcefully last .ee' in T!'y!, )erry
did assert that x.e !pp!se any
unilateral !r c!erci&e acti!n that
.!uld s!#eh!. ai# at chan$in$
the status Hu!y %ut, a$ain,
there .as n! specific #enti!n !f
ceu c6a Trun$ cuIc, th8# chP sau
#5t th8p ' nY c>ui n$!fi $ia!
dn tr!n$ Huan EiB# thu8n lFi c6a
Trun$ cuIc h nWn$ (a# ;*
Tr!n$ tr>un$ hFp Huen E7!
0en'a'u, Trun$ cuIc E\ thWn$
Hua lMn hai c? h5i EB c_n$ thmn$
%=nh tnh* M5t tr!n$ nh^n$ hZnh
E5n$ Eeu tiMn 0hinz! A%e c6a Th6
t>an$ (h8t B7n E\ $]i #5t ph<i
E!Zn EXn BKc )inh &ai #5t %@c
th> c< nh:n ch! i* Tr!n$ 'hi l<
th> 'hWn$ %a! $R# c<c EL 1uCt
cY thB ch! de le! than$ t=nh h=nh
h BiBn nWn$ Trun$ cuIc, Pt nhCt
E<nh dCu #5t 'hlc df! n$!fi $ia!
- #5t tr!n$ nh^n$ #Z BKc )inh E\
'hWn$ E<p @n$ E<n$ 'B* Th<n$
hai thWn$ %<! c6a T!'y! rSn$ #5t
tZu chiXn Trun$ cuIc E\ hai len
ochiXu s<n$o l9c l>Fn$ (h8t B7n
&ai radar EiLu 'hiBn hGa l9c ch!
Trun$ cuIc #5t c? h5i %G l h
de-le! than$ lZ tIt* BKc )inh cD
thB E\ %<c %G h!Nc cWn$ 'hai
'hiBn tr<ch E5i tr>hn$ tZu &i
phf#, #Z sV thB hisn #5t #!n$
#uIn r rZn$ EB t<i n E[nh BiBn
nWn$ Trun$ cuIc* Thay &Z! ED,
BKc )inh c<! %u5c chPnh ph6
(h8t B7n tuyMn truyLn dIi tr<*
Trun$ cuIc, cD &j nh> cD rCt Pt
Huan t:# EXn $Jt lfi l8p tr>un$
EIi Eeu c6a nD*
T!ft E5n$ c6a BKc )inh h BiBn
nWn$ Trun$ cuIc, tuy nhiMn,
'hWn$ nhK# &Z! #5t #=nh (h8t
B7n* (h> #5t sI n>ac 'h<c h
ch:u ;, Trun$ cuIc nhS# #Yc
EPch th<ch th@c ca# 'Xt c6a T!a
)U EIi &ai #5t ERn$ #inh* MNc dO
sau ED, ($!fi tr>hn$ Mk Tillary
Clint!n E\ $]i #5t tPn hisu tPch
c9c EIi &ai 'hu &9c nZy &ai s9
'hmn$ E[nh c6a #=nh &Z! n_#
n$!<i rSn$ Huen E7! 0en'a'u
E>Fc %a! ph6 %hi Huan hs Mk-
(h8t B7n hisp >ac liMn #inh,
ashin$t!n E\ ch! heu hXt c<c
phen thB hisn #5t #!n$ #uIn
#\nh list EB h lfi 'hWn$ liMn Huan*
n7# %7! c6a Clint!n 'hWn$ cWn$
'hai tr=nh %Zy lfi 'hi Th6 t>an$
A%e E\ san$ th_# ashin$t!n
&Z! th<n$ Tai* Th8t &8y, tr!n$ 'hi
s9 1uCt hisn chun$ tr>ac %<! chP,
Tn$ thIn$ ,%a#a E\ 'hWn$
th8# chP $Fi %X tKc $i^a Trun$
cuIc &Z (h8t B7n Ean$ didn ra
trMn %iBn, h\y EB #5t #=nh th9c
s9 EL c8p EXn Trun$ cuIc h!Nc
(h8t trMn %iBn* T8n dYn$ chuysn
nZy, %<! chP Trun$ cuIc l $i7i
rSn$ n$>ui Mk E\ olfnh nhfto &ai
(h8t*
)hi Philippines &Z Trun$ cuIc
EYn$ E5 tfi %\i cfn 0car%!r!u$h
n_# n$!<i, ashin$t!n cbn$
'hmn$ E[nh Manila lZ ERn$ #inh
th:n c8n, nh>n$ lfi 'hWn$ tiXn
hZnh nh^n$ hZnh E5n$ cY thB
nhS# tr<nh #5t 'Xt Hu7 cuIi cOn$
%Ct lFi: Trun$ cuIc chiX# h^u %\i
cfn*
`Z nh> &8y, 'B c7 'hi chPnh HuyLn
,%a#a tuyMn %I chiXn l>Fc 1!ay
trYc &L ch:u ;, th= c<c ERn$ #inh
c6a Mk h ch:u lYc nZy cbn$ %Ct
an rSn$: Mk 'hWn$ cgn tiXp tYc sV
lZ EIi t<c 'iMn E[nh nh> E\ tin$
tr!n$ Hu< 'h@* T?n thX n^a, &isc
Trun$ cuIc t_n$ c>un$ c<c 'h7
n_n$ Hu:n s9 Ean$ tf! ra thM#
nhiLu 'hD 'h_n &ai c<c l9c l>Fn$
Mk h!ft E5n$ h T:y Th<i B=nh
+>?n$* (Xu Mk 'hWn$ cD c<ch
$i7i HuyXt t!Zn disn t=nh h=nh nZy
&Z thuyXt phYc c<c ERn$ #inh
rSn$, c<c ca# 'Xt E>a ra lZ 'hWn$
lay chuyBn, th= Trun$ cuIc sV tiXp
tYc Hu7 HuyXt, $:y hCn &Z hun$
h_n$ h?n, sV thiMn &L chJn l9a <p
chX, th[ uy %Sn$ s@c #fnh EB Eft
E>Fc #Yc tiMu cuIi cOn$* nD lZ
tr8t t9 Trun$ cuIc thIn$ tr[ h
ch:u ;*
Phen 2: `ai trg Mk &Z #Yc tiMu
c6a (h8t
Th<i Anwthe! A#erican 3nterprise
{nstitutez
China, and this &a$ue .arnin$
#ay ha&e %een ai#ed, h!.e&er
su%tly, at %!th T!'y! and Bei4in$*
The CCP relies !n deli&erin$
ec!n!#ic $r!.th and !n its clai#s
t! a nati!nalist #antle t! le$iti#ize
its c!ntinuin$ rule*
This is n!t the first ti#e the /nited
0tates has %al'ed at supp!rtin$
an ally in c!nfr!ntati!n .ith China*
hen the Philippines and China
faced !ff !&er the 0car%!r!u$h
0h!al last sprin$, ashin$t!n
assured Manila !f its c!##it#ent
t! the alliance, %ut didn"t ta'e
steps ai#ed at a&!idin$ the
ulti#ately unfa&!ra%le !utc!#e:
China in p!ssessi!n !f the sh!al*
3arlier, in the su##er !f 2010,
China pr!tested str!n$ly a$ainst
plans f!r a 4!int /*0*-0!uth
)!rean na&al e1ercise t! %e held
in internati!nal .aters in the
ell!. 0ea f!ll!.in$ (!rth
)!rea"s sin'in$ !f a 0!uth )!rean
na&al &essel* The /nited 0tates
relented and held the e1ercises
else.here* wAfter (!rth )!rea
shelled the 0!uth"s e!npye!n$
{sland later that year, the /nited
0tates did $! ahead .ith ell!.
0ea #aneu&ersz*
And s!, e&en as the ,%a#a
ad#inistrati!n clai#s it is
xpi&!tin$y t! Asia, its Asian allies
.!rry that A#erica .ill n!t
c!ntinue t! %e the steadfast
partner it has %een in the past*
China"s #ilitary %uild-up,
#!re!&er, is #a'in$ it #!re
difficult f!r /*0* f!rces t! !perate
unhindered in the estern Pacific,
challen$in$ A#erica"s &ery a%ility
wand, c!nseHuently, its .illz t! %e a
dependa%le ally* {f the /nited
0tates d!es n!t adeHuately
address this trend and c!n&ince
its allies and China that
ashin$t!n"s c!##it#ent t! its
Asian alliances re#ains
unsha'en, Bei4in$ .ill c!nclude it
has successfully dec!upled
A#erica fr!# 2apan, 0!uth )!rea,
the Philippines, and !thers* 0uch
a c!nclusi!n accurate !r n!t
.ill p!rtend an e&en #!re
a$$ressi&e China, pr!ne t! the
use !f c!erci!n and f!rce t!
achie&e its ends* ,nly Bei4in$
l!!'s f!r.ard t! a Chinese-
Huen E7! 0en'a'u* Ph>?n$ tisn
truyLn thWn$ Trun$ cuIc $i7i thPch
EiLu nZy nh> #5t `!Jc Mk &ai
l\nh Ef! (h8t B7n, &Z 'hWn$ ph7i
'hWn$ cD %isn #inh*
($!fi tr>hn$ 2!hn )erry E\ EL
c8p EXn Huen E7! 0en'a'u tr!n$
%Zi ph<t %iBu c6a #=nh cOn$ &ai
($!fi tr>hn$ (h8t B7n Fu#i!
)ishida tr!n$ chuyXn th_# c6a c?
Huan nZy EXn ashin$t!n, nh>n$
ch %Sn$ c<ch 'hen n$Fi T!'y! EB
th9c hisn 'iL# chX* )hWn$ cD
'iXn ch! rSn$ Trun$ cuIc nMn lZ#
nh> &8y* (Di #5t c<ch #fnh #V
h?n tuen tr>ac h T!'y!, )erry E\
'hmn$ E[nh rSn$ ochln$ tWi ph7n
EIi %Ct 'U hZnh E5n$ E?n ph>?n$
h!Nc c>n$ chX %Sn$ c<ch nZ!
ED sV nhS# #Yc EPch thay Ei
n$uyMn trfn$o - nh>n$, #5t len
n^a, 'hWn$ cD EL c8p cY thB c6a
Trun$ cuIc, &Z c7nh %<! #? hR
nZy cD thB lZ nhS# #Yc EPch, tuy
nhiMn tinh tX, h c7 T!'y! &Z BKc
)inh*
nC0Tc d9a &Z! &isc cun$ cCp
t_n$ tr>hn$ 'inh tX &Z trMn tuyMn
%I c6a #=nh &ai #5t chiXc <!
ch!Zn$ d:n t5c EB hFp ph<p hDa
tr[ tiXp tYc c6a nD*
n:y 'hWn$ ph7i lZ len Eeu tiMn
T!a )U E\ %G Hua &isc h trF #5t
ERn$ #inh tr!n$ cu5c EIi Eeu &ai
Trun$ cuIc* )hi Philippines &Z
Trun$ cuIc EIi #Nt trMn c<c %\i
cfn 0car%!r!u$h #Oa 1u:n n_#
n$!<i, ashin$t!n t:# Manila c6a
ca# 'Xt liMn #inh, nh>n$ E\
'hWn$ th9c hisn c<c %>ac nhS#
tr<nh 'Xt Hu7 cuIi cOn$ 'hWn$
thu8n lFi: Trun$ cuIc sh h^u
nh^n$ %\i c<t n$e#* Tr>ac ED,
tr!n$ #Oa h n_# 2010, Trun$
cuIc E\ ph7n EIi #fnh #V chIn$
lfi 'X h!fch ch! #5t cu5c t8p tr8n
h7i Hu:n TZn cuIc Mk-TZn
chun$ E>Fc t ch@c tfi &On$ %iBn
HuIc tX h %iBn T!Zn$ T7i sau &Y
ch=# #5t tZu h7i Hu:n TZn cuIc
c6a BKc TriLu TiMn* Mk nh>Fn$
%5 &Z t ch@c c<c %Zi t8p h n?i
'h<c* w0au 'hi BKc TriLu TiMn n\
ph<! E7! e!npye!n$ c6a #iLn
(a# sau n_# ED, T!a )U E\ Ei
tr>ac &ai didn t8p T!Zn$ T7iz*
`Z nh> &8y, n$ay c7 'hi chPnh
HuyLn ,%a#a tuyMn %I nD lZ
o1!ay &gn$o san$ ch:u ;, c<c
d!#inated !rder in Asia*
2apan"s Ai#: 0h!.in$ Bac'%!ne
and Maintainin$ the 0tatus cu!
F!r 2apan, .hich d!es n!t
!fficially rec!$nize that a territ!rial
dispute e1ists, its c!nfr!ntati!n
.ith China !&er the 0en'a'us is
a%!ut #aintainin$ the status Hu!*
First and f!re#!st, it .ants t!
#aintain !r, at this p!int, return
t! %usiness as usual in the
c!ntested territ!ry itself* T!'y!
si#ply .ants t! c!ntinue d!in$
.hat it has d!ne since the 1}0s:
ad#inister the islands freely
patr!l the near%y .aters and deal
.ith the !ccasi!nal incident, such
as the landin$ !f Chinese citizens
!n an island, !n an ad h!c %asis*
/ntil the past c!uple !f years, the
0en'a'u issue .as rarely #!re
than a #in!r th!rn in the side !f
China-2apan relati!ns* T!'y!
.!uld &ery #uch li'e t! return t!
that state !f affairs*
But as .ith China, the
c!nfr!ntati!n !&er the 0en'a'us is
a%!ut #!re than the islands
the#sel&es* T!'y! understands as
.ell as any%!dy and, perhaps,
%etter than ashin$t!n that
Bei4in$ is ai#in$ t! !&erthr!. the
re$i!nal !rder and, .ith it, the
relati&e peace that !rder has
#aintained !&er the last three
decades* {n stic'in$ t! its $uns in
the 3ast China 0ea, 2apan is
.!r'in$ t! c!unter that lar$er
eff!rt* That is .hy .hen A%e
discusses security in the Asia-
Pacific, he tal's a%!ut .!r'in$
.ith the /nited 0tates t! xsecure
the freed!# !f the seas and t!
secure a re$i!n .hich is $!&erned
%ased !n la.s, n!t !n f!rce*y
T!'y!"s purchase !f three !f the
0en'a'u {slands fr!# a pri&ate
!.ner last 0epte#%er pr!&ided
the CCP .ith a $!lden !pp!rtunity
t! present itself as the $uarant!r
!f China"s security in the face !f
rapaci!us f!rei$n threats*
{n his speech earlier this year at
ashin$t!n"s Center f!r 0trate$ic
and {nternati!nal 0tudies, A%e
descri%ed 2apan as xa rules
pr!#!ter, a $l!%al c!##!ns
$uardian, and an effecti&e ally and
ERn$ #inh ch:u ; c6a #=nh l!
lKn$ rSn$ n>ac Mk sV 'hWn$ tiXp
tYc lZ EIi t<c 'iMn E[nh nD E\ E>Fc
tr!n$ Hu< 'h@* Trun$ cuIc 1:y
d9n$ Hu:n E5i, h?n n^a, lZ lZ#
ch! nD 'hD 'h_n h?n ch! c<c l9c
l>Fn$ Mk h!ft E5n$ 'hWn$ %[ c7n
trh tr!n$ T:y Th<i B=nh +>?n$,
th<ch th@c 'h7 n_n$ rCt c6a Mk
w&Z, d! ED, chP c6a nDz lZ #5t
ERn$ #inh E<n$ tin c8y* (Xu T!a
)U 'hWn$ $i7i HuyXt Eey E6 1u
h>an$ nZy &Z thuyXt phYc c<c
ERn$ #inh &Z Trun$ cuIc c6a
#=nh rSn$ ca# 'Xt c6a
ashin$t!n liMn #inh ch:u ; c6a
#=nh %[ lay E5n$, BKc )inh sV 'Xt
thlc nD E\ t<ch rui thZnh cWn$ Mk
ti (h8t B7n, TZn cuIc,
Philippines, &Z nh^n$ n$>ui 'h<c*
)Xt lu8n nh> &8y - chPnh 1<c hay
'hWn$ - sV %<! tr>ac #5t Trun$
cuIc th8# chP cgn hun$ h_n$
h?n, dd %[ s] dYn$ c>n$ chX &Z
&b l9c EB Eft E>Fc 'Xt thlc c6a
nD* BKc )inh ch #!n$ #uIn #5t
tr8t t9 Trun$ cuIc thIn$ tr[ h
ch:u ;*
MYc tiMu c6a (h8t B7n: Tisn
Bac'%!ne &Z duy tr= c<c 0tatus
cu!
nIi &ai (h8t B7n, #Z 'hWn$ chPnh
th@c thia nh8n rSn$ tranh chCp
l\nh th tRn tfi, EIi Eeu &ai Trun$
cuIc trMn Huen E7! 0en'a'u lZ
&L &isc duy tr= n$uyMn trfn$*
Tr>ac hXt, nD #uIn duy tr= - hay,
&Z! thui EiB# nZy, Huay trh lfi -
'inh d!anh nh> th>un$ ls tr!n$
l\nh th tranh c\i c6a chPnh nD*
T!'y! ch E?n $i7n lZ #uIn tiXp
tYc lZ# nh^n$ $= nD E\ E>Fc th9c
hisn ti nh^n$ n_# 1}0: Hu7n l
c<c E7! t9 d! tuen tra c<c &On$
%iBn $en ED, &Z EIi phD &ai c<c s9
cI th>un$ 1uyMn, chmn$ hfn nh>
cu5c E %5 c6a cWn$ d:n Trun$
cuIc trMn #5t hgn E7!, trMn c?
sh ENc %ist* Ch! EXn 'hi &Zi n_#
Hua, &Cn EL 0en'a'u lZ hiX# 'hi
nhiLu h?n lZ #5t c<i $ai nhG h
phPa %Mn c6a Huan hs Trun$
cuIc-(h8t B7n* T!'y! rCt #uIn
Huay trh lfi trfn$ th<i c6a cWn$
&isc*
(h>n$ nh> &ai Trun$ cuIc, cu5c
EIi Eeu trMn Huen E7! 0en'a'u lZ
&L nhiLu h?n c<c E7! c6a #=nh*
T!'y! hiBu cbn$ nh> %Ct c@ ai -
&Z, cD lV, tIt h?n s! &ai
partner t! the /*0* and !ther
de#!cracies*y The 0en'a'us
dispute #ay n!t %e a%!ut freed!#
!f the seas per se, %ut A%e
rec!$nizes that if China achie&es
its $!als there &ia f!rce !r
c!erci!n, it can certainly als! d!
s! a$ainst #uch .ea'er states in
0!utheast Asia, especially as
success in the east .!uld all!.
Bei4in$ t! c!ncentrate #ariti#e
res!urces in the s!uth* And
China"s desi$ns !n nearly the
entirety !f the 0!uth China 0ea d!
ha&e i##ediate i#plicati!ns f!r
freed!# !f the seas and !pen
access t! the $l!%al c!##!ns*
M!re!&er, in e1pressin$ a desire
t! partner .ith !ther de#!cracies,
A%e is hintin$ at an!ther $!al a
p!tential e&!luti!n !f the re$i!nal
!rder Huite at !dds .ith China"s
&isi!n* ritin$ n!t l!n$ after his
inau$urati!n, A%e addressed this
e&!luti!n #!re directly:
{ en&isa$e a strate$y .here%y
Australia, {ndia, 2apan, and the
/*0* state !f Ta.aii f!r# a
dia#!nd t! safe$uard the
#ariti#e c!##!ns stretchin$ fr!#
the {ndian ,cean re$i!n t! the
.estern Pacific
{ .!uld als! in&ite Britain and
France t! sta$e a c!#e%ac' in
ter#s !f participatin$ in
stren$thenin$ Asia"s security* The
sea-farin$ de#!cracies in 2apan"s
part !f the .!rld .!uld %e #uch
%etter !ff .ith their rene.ed
presence
T! i#pr!&e 0in!-2apanese
relati!ns, 2apan #ust first anch!r
its ties !n the !ther side !f the
Pacific f!r, at the end !f the day,
2apan"s dipl!#acy #ust al.ays
%e r!!ted in de#!cracy, the rule
!f la., and respect f!r hu#an
ri$hts { fir#ly %elie&e that, in
2013 and %ey!nd, the Asia-Pacific
re$i!n"s future pr!sperity sh!uld
rest !n these uni&ersal &alues as
.ell*
This &isi!n represents a natural
e&!luti!n !f Asia"s current re$i!nal
!rder and f!resees a future in
.hich Asia"s li%eral de#!cracies
share $reater resp!nsi%ility .ith
the /nited 0tates f!r 'eepin$ the
ashin$t!n - ED BKc )inh lZ
nhS# l8t E tr8t t9 'hu &9c, &Z &ai
nD, hga %=nh t>?n$ EIi tr8t t9 E\
E>Fc duy tr= tr!n$ %a th8p ' Hua*
Tr!n$ $Kn %D &ai 'hu sln$ c6a
#=nh h BiBn nWn$ Trun$ cuIc,
(h8t B7n Ean$ lZ# &isc EB chIn$
lfi nh^n$ n l9c lan h?n* nD lZ l
d! tfi sa! 'hi A%e th7! lu8n &L an
ninh tr!n$ 'hu &9c ch:u ;-Th<i
B=nh +>?n$, Wn$ nDi &L lZ# &isc
&ai Mk EB oE7# %7! s9 t9 d! c6a
c<c &On$ %iBn &Z EB %7! E7# #5t
'hu &9c E>Fc EiLu chnh d9a trMn
lu8t ph<p, ch@ 'hWn$ ph7i l9c
l>Fn$*o
T!'y! #ua %a c6a Huen E7!
0en'a'u ti #5t ch6 sh h^u t>
nh:n th<n$ ChPn n_# n$!<i cun$
cCp nC0Tc &ai #5t c? h5i &Zn$
EB tr=nh %Zy chPnh nD nh> lZ %7!
E7# an ninh c6a Trun$ cuIc EIi
#Nt &ai #Ii Ee dJa n>ac n$!Zi
tha# la#*
Tr!n$ %Zi ph<t %iBu c6a #=nh &Z!
Eeu n_# nay tfi Trun$ t:# c6a
ashin$t!n ($hiMn c@u ChiXn
l>Fc &Z cuIc tX, A%e #W t7 (h8t
B7n lZ o#5t n$>ui Hu7n$ %< Huy
tKc, #5t t!Zn ceu C!##!ns
n$>ui $i<# h5, &Z #5t ERn$ #inh
hisu Hu7 &Z EIi t<c &ai Mk &Z c<c
nLn d:n ch6 'h<c*o C<c tranh
chCp Huen E7! 0en'a'u cD thB
'hWn$ E>Fc &L t9 d! c6a c<c
&On$ %iBn ch! #i $ia nh8p,
nh>n$ A%e nh8n ra rSn$ nXu
Trun$ cuIc Eft E>Fc #Yc tiMu
c6a #=nh cD thWn$ Hua &b l9c
h!Nc tp %u5c, nD cD thB chKc
chKn cbn$ lZ# nh> &8y EIi &ai
c<c HuIc $ia yXu h?n nhiLu h
nWn$ (a# ;, ENc %ist lZ 'hi thZnh
cWn$ h phPa EWn$ sV ch! phtp
BKc )inh EB t8p trun$ hZn$ h7i tZi
n$uyMn h phPa na#* `Z thiXt 'X
c6a Trun$ cuIc trMn $en nh> t!Zn
%5 %iBn (a# Trun$ T!a 'hWn$ cD
nh^n$ t<c E5n$ tr9c tiXp EIi &ai
s9 t9 d! c6a c<c &On$ %iBn &Z
truy c8p &Z! chun$ trMn t!Zn ceu*
T?n n^a, tr!n$ &isc thB hisn
#!n$ #uIn hFp t<c &ai c<c nLn
d:n ch6 'h<c, A%e E>Fc <# ch
#5t #Yc tiMu - #5t s9 tiXn hDa
tiL# n_n$ c6a tr8t t9 'hu &9c 'h<
#:u thun &ai te# nh=n c6a Trun$
cuIc* `iXt 'hWn$ l:u sau 'hi
nh8# ch@c, A%e HuyXt s9 tiXn hDa
nZy tr9c tiXp h?n:
peace* {t is als! a &isi!n rather
inc!#pati%le .ith Bei4in$"s
preferred China-centric future*
T!'y! 'n!.s that if it %ac's d!.n
in the face !f Chinese threats,
A%e"s xde#!cratic dia#!ndy .!uld
%e dead !n arri&al*
,f c!urse, such an e&entuality
.!uld als! di#inish 2apanese
nati!nal security* First !ff, 2apan"s
c!n&enti!nal deterrence .!uld %e
.ea'ened, 4ust as it .as in the fall
!f 2010 .hen it ca&ed t! Bei4in$"s
de#ands f!r the release !f a
Chinese fishin$ %!at captain .h!
had %een arrested after his ship
c!llided .ith 2apanese c!ast
$uard &essels* 0ec!ndly, ulti#ate
Chinese success in the 0en'a'us
c!uld lead t! a per#anent
Chinese na&al presence less than
100 #iles fr!# 2apan"s
s!uth.estern islands*
{t #ust %e n!ted that nati!nalis#
plays a r!le in 2apan"s appr!ach
t! the stand!ff, 4ust as it d!es in
China"s* A%e"s electi!n, si1 years
after his first stint as pri#e
#inister, is e&idence !f an
e#er$ent nati!nalistic strea'
a#!n$ 2apan"s p!pulati!n* But
unli'e China"s state-sp!ns!red
and state-ind!ctrinatin$
nati!nalis#, 2apan"s is #!re
!r$anic* {n s!#e .ays, in fact, it is
resp!nsi&e t! China"s !.n* Many
2apanese ha&e see#in$ly tired !f
China"s freHuent nati!nalistic
%r!adsides* They are tired !f
%ein$ %erated f!r 2apan"s acti!ns
in !rld ar {{, and !f repeatedly
ap!l!$izin$ f!r the sins !f their
fathers w!r $randfathers and $reat
$randfathersz* M!stly, perhaps,
they are indi$nant and #ay%e a
little fearful due t! the instances !f
#ass anti-2apanese &i!lence that
Bei4in$ peri!dically per#its, !r
e&en enc!ura$es*
China, it see#s, is fed up .ith
the p!st.ar, /*0*-led internati!nal
!rder and intent !n !nce a$ain
assu#in$ its hist!rical p!siti!n as
the -Middle )in$d!#*"
As in e&ery de#!cratic c!untry,
there are irresp!nsi%le nati!nalists
in 2apan* But A%e is n!t !ne !f
the#* 2apan is n!t returnin$ t! the
fascist i#perialis# !f dar'er days,
TWi #>un$ t>Fn$ ra #5t chiXn
l>Fc the! ED c, n n5, (h8t
B7n, &Z c<c tiBu %an$ Ta.aii tf!
thZnh #5t &iMn 'i# c>?n$ EB %7!
&s c<c &On$ %iBn chun$ 't! dZi ti
'hu &9c n n5 +>?n$ tai T:y
Th<i B=nh +>?n$ ***
TWi cbn$ sV #ui Anh &Z Ph<p EXn
$iai E!fn #5t s9 trh lfi &L tha#
$ia tr!n$ &isc t_n$ c>un$ an ninh
ch:u ;* C<c nLn d:n ch6 Ei %iBn
tr!n$ #5t phen c6a thX $iai c6a
(h8t B7n sV E>Fc tIt h?n !ff &ai
s9 hisn disn #ai c6a hJ ***
C7i thisn Huan hs Trun$-(h8t, len
Eeu tiMn (h8t B7n ph7i $i^ chNt
c<c #Ii Huan hs c6a #=nh h phPa
%Mn 'ia c6a Th<i B=nh +>?n$,
ch!, &Z! cuIi n$Zy, n$!fi $ia! c6a
(h8t B7n luWn luWn ph7i %Kt
n$uRn ti d:n ch6, ph<p HuyLn &Z
tWn trJn$ nh:n HuyLn *** TWi tin
chKc rSn$, tr!n$ n_# 2013 &Z 1a
h?n n^a, s9 th[nh &>Fn$ tr!n$
t>?n$ lai c6a 'hu &9c ch:u ;-
Th<i B=nh +>?n$ nMn n$h n$?i
trMn nh^n$ $i< tr[ ph Hu<t lZ tIt*
Te# nh=n nZy Efi disn ch! #5t s9
tiXn hDa t9 nhiMn c6a tr8t t9 'hu
&9c hisn tfi ch:u ; &Z d9 %<! #5t
t>?n$ lai tr!n$ ED c<c nLn d:n
ch6 t9 d! c6a ch:u ; chia sj
tr<ch nhis# lan h?n &ai T!a )U
EB $i^ hga %=nh* (D cbn$ lZ #5t
te# nh=n h?n 'hWn$ phO hFp &ai
>u tiMn tr!n$ t>?n$ lai Trun$
cuIc trun$ t:# c6a BKc )inh*
T!'y! %iXt rSn$ nXu nD trZn 1uIn$
'hi EIi #Nt &ai #Ii Ee dJa Trun$
cuIc, o'i# c>?n$ d:n ch6o c6a
Wn$ A%e sV chXt 'hi EXn*
TCt nhiMn, n$:u nhiMn nh> &8y
cbn$ sV lZ# $i7# an ninh HuIc
$ia (h8t B7n* Tr>ac hXt, r_n Ee
thWn$ th>un$ c6a (h8t B7n sV %[
suy yXu, ch &= nD lZ tr!n$ #Oa thu
n_# 2010 'hi nD nh>Fn$ %5
nh^n$ Egi hGi c6a BKc )inh EIi
&ai &isc ph<t hZnh #5t E<nh c<
Trun$ cuIc thuyLn tr>hn$ E\ %[
%Kt $i^ sau 'hi tZu c6a Wn$ &a
chf# &ai c<c tZu %7! &s %u %iBn
(h8t B7n* Th@ hai, s9 thZnh cWn$
c6a Trun$ cuIc cuIi cOn$ tr!n$
Huen E7! 0en'a'u cD thB dn EXn
#5t s9 hisn disn h7i Hu:n th>un$
tr9c Trun$ cuIc Pt h?n 100 '# ti
hgn E7! phPa t:y na# c6a (h8t
as Bei4in$ s! !ften asserts*
2apanese citizens are still &ery
#uch t!rn !n the Huesti!n !f
re&isin$ their pacifist c!nstituti!n*
But li'e their Chinese
c!unterparts, they feel they are
deser&in$ !f a little respect, and
that they ha&e n!thin$ t! %e
asha#ed !f* F!r 2apan"s pe!ple,
the 0en'a'us dispute is n!t si#ply
a%!ut a Huesti!n !f s!&erei$nty*
{t"s a%!ut n!t %ein$ %ullied* {t"s
a%!ut sh!.in$ %ac'%!ne* |i&en
that senti#ent, A%e cann!t aff!rd
t! l!!' .ea' !n the h!#e fr!nt*
The /nited 0tates"s ~!le
The ,%a#a ad#inistrati!n #ay
c!nclude that it si#ply d!es n!t
care a%!ut the ulti#ate disp!siti!n
!f the 0en'a'u {slands* But it
sh!uld care &ery #uch a%!ut h!.
the dispute is res!l&ed* China"s
decisi!n t! shift t! a #!re
c!nfr!ntati!nal appr!ach sh!uld
set !ff alar# %ells in ashin$t!n*
0! .hat sh!uld ashin$t!n d!q
First, the ad#inistrati!n sh!uld
reiterate that the /*0*-2apan
Treaty !f Mutual C!!perati!n and
0ecurity c!&ers the 0en'a'u
{slands* 0ec!nd, ashin$t!n
sh!uld c!n&ey t! Bei4in$ that it
c!nsiders China"s use !f c!erci!n
and f!rce t! settle disputes as
detri#ental t! c!re A#erican
interests* President ,%a#a and
0ecretary )erry sh!uld repeat
Tillary Clint!n"s 2anuary .arnin$,
.hich 2apan .elc!#ed %ut .hich
.as undercut %y her i#pendin$
departure: x.e !pp!se any
unilateral acti!ns that .!uld see'
t! under#ine 2apanese
ad#inistrati!n and .e ur$e all
parties t! ta'e steps t! pre&ent
incidents and #ana$e
disa$ree#ents thr!u$h peaceful
#eansy we#phasis addedz
n!tice the difference %et.een this
f!r#ulati!n and )erry"s, cited
a%!&e, .hich .arned a$ainst
unilateral acti!ns under#inin$ the
status Hu! rather than th!se
under#inin$ 2apanese
ad#inistrati!n* Third, President
,%a#a sh!uld end!rse A%e"s
xde#!cratic dia#!ndy pr!p!sal
and .!r' .ith hi# t! %rin$ it t!
fruiti!n* {t sh!uld %e #ade clear
that ashin$t!n rec!$nizes a
B7n*
Cen ph7i l>u rSn$ ch6 n$ha
d:n t5c EDn$ &ai trg tr!n$ c<ch
tiXp c8n c6a (h8t B7n EB %X tKc,
ch cen $iIn$ nh> tr!n$ c6a Trun$
cuIc* Cu5c %eu c] c6a Wn$ A%e,
s<u n_# sau 'hi thui $ian lZ# Eeu
tiMn c6a Wn$ lZ th6 t>an$, lZ %Sn$
ch@n$ c6a #5t chui d:n t5c ni
lMn tr!n$ d:n sI (h8t B7n* (h>n$
'hWn$ $iIn$ nh> c<c nhZ tZi trF
&Z nhZ ind!ctrinatin$ d:n t5c c6a
Trun$ cuIc, (h8t B7n lZ h^u c?
h?n* Tr!n$ #5t sI c<ch, tr!n$
th9c tX, nD lZ E<p @n$ c6a Trun$
cuIc* (hiLu n$>ui (h8t E\ cD &j
#st #Gi th>un$ 1uyMn %r!adsides
d:n t5c c6a Trun$ cuIc* TJ #st
#Gi %[ #Kn$ ch! hZnh E5n$ tr!n$
ChiXn tranh ThX $iai {{, &Z liMn tYc
1in li &= t5i li c6a cha wh!Nc Wn$
n5i &Z Wn$ n5i lanz c6a (h8t B7n*
Ch6 yXu lZ, cD lV, hJ phn n5 &Z
cD thB lZ #5t chlt sF h\i d! c<c
tr>un$ hFp %f! l9c chIn$ (h8t
'hIi l>Fn$ rSn$ BKc )inh E[nh 'U
ch! phtp, th8# chP 'huyXn 'hPch*
Trun$ cuIc, cD &j nh>, Ean$
ch<n &ai sau chiXn tranh, tr8t t9
HuIc tX d! Mk dn Eeu &Z cD
E[nh #5t len n^a E7# nh8n &ai trg
l[ch s] c6a nD lZ oTrun$ HuIc
Anh*o
(h> tr!n$ tCt c7 c<c n>ac d:n
ch6, cD n$ha d:n t5c &W tr<ch
nhis# tfi (h8t B7n* (h>n$ A%e
'hWn$ ph7i lZ #5t tr!n$ sI hJ*
(h8t B7n lZ 'hWn$ Huay trh lfi
ch6 n$ha EX HuIc ph<t 1Pt c6a
n$Zy Een tIi h?n, nh> BKc )inh
th>un$ 1uyMn 'hmn$ E[nh* CWn$
d:n (h8t B7n &n cgn rCt nhiLu
$iSn$ 1t &L &Cn EL s]a Ei hiXn
ph<p hga %=nh c6a hJ* (h>n$
cbn$ $iIn$ nh> c<c EIi t<c Trun$
cuIc c6a hJ, hJ c7# thCy hJ
1@n$ E<n$ E>Fc tWn trJn$ chlt,
&Z rSn$ hJ 'hWn$ cD $= ph7i 1Cu
h c7* nIi &ai n$>ui d:n (h8t
B7n, c<c tranh chCp Huen E7!
0en'a'u 'hWn$ ch E?n $i7n lZ &L
#5t &Cn EL ch6 HuyLn* nD lZ &L
'hWn$ %[ %Kt nft* nD lZ &L thCy
1>?n$ sIn$* Ch! rSn$ t=nh c7#,
A%e 'hWn$ cD 'h7 n_n$ nh=n yXu
trMn #Nt tr>ac nhZ*
`ai trg c6a Mk
ChPnh HuyLn ,%a#a cD thB 'Xt
Chinese threat t! the esta%lished
re$i!nal !rder .hich has 'ept
the peace f!r all and all!.ed all t!
pr!sper and that the Asia-
Pacific"s de#!cracies, .!r'in$
t!$ether, are %est p!siti!ned t!
ensure that !rder"s sur&i&al*
At this p!int, it see#s unli'ely that
China .ill return t! the s#ile
dipl!#acy !f the pre&i!us decade*
C!nfr!ntati!n #ay ha&e %ec!#e a
se#i-per#anent state !f affairs in
Asia* But the /nited 0tates can
either enc!ura$e !r disc!ura$e
increasin$ly a$$ressi&e Chinese
%eha&i!r* At present, /*0* p!licy is
n!t .ell tail!red t! achie&in$ the
latter*
C!nclusi!n
The c!nfr!ntati!n !&er the
0en'a'us is a%!ut #!re than
c!ntested s!&erei$nty clai#s*
There is, !f c!urse, an !n$!in$
tactical tussle in the .aters ar!und
the islands, .ith 2apan intent !n
c!ntinuin$ t! ad#inister the
disputed territ!ry as it has f!r
decades and China atte#ptin$ t!
alter the reality !f T!'y!"s c!ntr!l
there* An accident, a
#iscalculati!n, !r, indeed, a
calculated act, c!uld lead
si##erin$ tensi!ns t! %!il !&er* ,f
c!urse, %!th c!untries .ant t!
pr!tect their s!&erei$nty* B!th
.ant t! ensure access t! the
natural res!urces %eneath the
sea%ed in the .aters ar!und the
islands* But #uch #!re is at sta'e
than a handful !f tiny islands and
undersea hydr!car%!ns*
The c!nflict playin$ !ut in the 3ast
China 0ea ri$ht n!. is a
#icr!c!s# !f the lar$er
c!#petiti!n %ein$ .a$ed f!r
Asia"s future* The s!&erei$nty
dispute c!uld, fri$htfully, ser&e as
a casus %elli f!r a third 0in!-
2apanese .ar and that .ar
#i$ht n!t ha&e such li#ited ai#s*
Michael Mazza is a research
fell!. at the A#erican 3nterprise
{nstitute*
lu8n rSn$ nD ch E?n $i7n lZ
'hWn$ Huan t:# EXn &isc %I trP
cuIi cOn$ c6a Huen E7! 0en'a'u*
(h>n$ nD ph7i Huan t:# rCt nhiLu
&L c<ch $i7i HuyXt tranh chCp*
Trun$ cuIc HuyXt E[nh chuyBn
san$ #5t ph>?n$ ph<p tiXp c8n
EIi Eeu nMn ENt chuWn$ %<! E5n$
tfi ashin$t!n*
`= &8y, nh^n$ $= ashin$t!n nMn
lZ# $=q neu tiMn, chPnh HuyLn nMn
nhKc lfi rSn$ Tisp >ac Mk-(h8t
hFp t<c ln nhau &Z an ninh %a!
$R# c<c Huen E7! nZy* Th@ hai,
ashin$t!n nMn truyLn Eft EXn
BKc )inh #Z hJ ch! rSn$ s] dYn$
c>n$ chX &Z l9c l>Fn$ c6a
Trun$ cuIc EB $i7i HuyXt tranh
chCp nh> $:y %Ct lFi ch! lFi Pch
cIt li c6a Mk* Tn$ thIn$ ,%a#a
&Z B5 tr>hn$ )erry nMn lNp lfi
th<n$ #5t c7nh %<! c6a %Z Tillary
Clint!n, tr!n$ ED (h8t B7n h!an
n$hMnh nh>n$ E\ E>Fc cKt 1tn
%Sn$ c<ch 'hhi hZnh sKp tai c6a
cW: oChln$ tWi ph7n EIi %Ct 'U
hZnh E5n$ E?n ph>?n$ cD thB sV
t=# c<ch ph< h!fi chPnh HuyLn
(h8t B7n &Z chln$ tWi 'Mu $Ji tCt
c7 c<c %Mn tha# $ia th9c hisn c<c
%>ac EB n$_n chNn s9 cI &Z Hu7n
l %Ct ERn$ thWn$ Hua %isn ph<p
hga %=nh ownhCn #fnhz - nh8n
thCy s9 'h<c %ist $i^a 1:y d9n$
nZy &Z )erry, trPch dn h trMn,
tr!n$ ED c7nh %<! chIn$ lfi hZnh
E5n$ E?n ph>?n$ ph< h!fi hisn
trfn$ ch@ 'hWn$ ph7i lZ nh^n$
n$>ui ph< h!fi chPnh HuyLn (h8t
B7n* Th@ %a, Tn$ thIn$ ,%a#a
nMn 6n$ h5 od:n ch6 'i# c>?n$o
EL n$h[ A%e &Z lZ# &isc &ai Wn$
EB E>a nD thZnh hisn th9c* Cen
nDi r rSn$ ashin$t!n nh8n #5t
#Ii Ee dJa Trun$ cuIc EXn tr8t t9
'hu &9c thZnh l8p - E\ $i^ hga
%=nh ch! tCt c7 &Z ch! phtp tCt c7
EB ph<t triBn th[nh &>Fn$ - &Z
rSn$ nLn d:n ch6 'hu &9c ch:u ;-
Th<i B=nh +>?n$, lZ# &isc cOn$
nhau, E>Fc E[nh &[ tIt nhCt EB
E7# %7! s9 sIn$ ED lZ th@ t9*
Tfi thui EiB# nZy, cD &j nh>
'hWn$ chKc rSn$ Trun$ cuIc sV
trh lfi chPnh s<ch n$!fi $ia! nY
c>ui c6a th8p ' tr>ac* Cu5c EIi
Eeu cD thB E\ trh thZnh #5t nhZ
n>ac %<n 'iMn cI c6a c<c &Cn EL
h ch:u ;* (h>n$ T!a )U cD thB
'huyXn 'hPch h!Nc 'hWn$ 'huyXn
'hPch hZnh &i n$Zy cZn$ hun$
h_n$ c6a Trun$ cuIc* Tisn nay,
chPnh s<ch c6a Mk cbn$ 'hWn$
ph7i lZ phO hFp EB Eft E>Fc sau
nZy*
)Xt lu8n
Cu5c EIi Eeu trMn Huen E7!
0en'a'u lZ 'h!7n$ h?n tuyMn %I
ch6 HuyLn tranh chCp* CD, tCt
nhiMn, #5t chiXn thu8t tranh Ean$
didn ra h c<c &On$ %iBn 1un$
Huanh c<c hgn E7!, &ai (h8t B7n
cD E[nh tiXp tYc Hu7n l c<c l\nh
th tranh chCp &= nD cD tr!n$
nhiLu th8p ' &Z Trun$ cuIc cI
$Kn$ EB thay Ei th9c tX c6a 'iB#
s!<t c6a T!'y! cD* M5t tai nfn,
#5t tPnh t!<n sai le#, h!Nc, th9c
s9, #5t hZnh E5n$ E>Fc tPnh
t!<n, cD thB dn c_n$ thmn$ Ean$
sWi sYc sWi h?n* TCt nhiMn, c7 hai
n>ac ELu #uIn %7! &s ch6 HuyLn
c6a hJ* C7 hai ELu #uIn E7# %7!
truy c8p &Z! c<c tZi n$uyMn thiMn
nhiMn d>ai E<y %iBn h c<c &On$
%iBn 1un$ Huanh c<c E7!* (h>n$
nhiLu h?n n^a Ean$ %[ Ee dJa
h?n #5t sI Pt c<c hgn E7! nhG &Z
hydr!car%!n d>ai*
Cu5c 1un$ E5t ch?i ra h BiBn
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http:pp...*a#erican*c!#parchi&ep2013paprilpthe-true-crisis-in-the-asia-pacific