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Sistem inteligent de monitorizare multiparametric a unei zone seismogene;

F. Munteanu, D. Zugravescu, C.Udriste



Catedra UNESCO de Geodinamica din cadrul
Institutului de Geodinamica Sabba S. Stefanescu al Academiei Romane



Evaluarea riscului seismic al unei zone este un obiectiv major in cercetarea geofizica
moderna. Studiile legate de intelegerea mecanismelor de cumulare a tensiunii in zone seismic active
si implicit responsabile de producerea cutremurelor de pamant, au fost revigorate de aparitia unui
ansamblu de teorii si modele cunoscute sub denumirea de stiinta Complexitatii. Astfel, dupa
descoperirea geometriei fractale, a teoriei haosului si a teoriei catastrofelor, evenimentele seismice
au fost reinterpretate ca exemple tipice ale dinamicii sistemelor neliniare. Procesul de auto-
organizare a devenit cel mai uzitat si important model privitor la producerea cutremurelor de Pamant.
Studiile in baze de date ce contin toate evenimentele seismice cu magnitudini mai mari de 2 au
evidentiat alternante intre perioade cu predictibilitate acceptabila si perioade cu evenimente
distribuite aleator, fapt ce a condus la ideea ca insasi gradul de predictibilitate al evenimentelor
seismice se schimba in timp (J.D.Goltz,1997). Din aceasta perspectiva, cutremurul de pamant a
devenit o expresie a geocomplexitatii (Rundle s.a. 2000), fapt ce a determinat orientarea cercetarii
stiintifice catre intelegerea fenomenelor complexe si valorificarea stiintifica - in domeniul geostiintelor
in general si al seismologiei in special - a principalelor concepte, modele, teorii si tehnici puse la
dispozitie de noua paradigma a Complexitatii.

Asimiland o zona seismic activa cu un sistem complex ierarhizat, putem face urmatoarele
afirmatii: - un eveniment seismic modifica ireversibil structura sistemului, motiv pentru care este
necesara o permanenta adaptare a parametrilor unui model sau chiar o modificare a modelului; -
fiecare eveniment seismic descarca sistemul cu o valoare energetica proprie (magnitudinea) fapt ce
modifica de fiecare data conditia initiala pentru noua etapa de incarcare, avand drept consecinta o
predictibilitate redusa dar nu imposibila; -este de asteptat ca uneori sa se identifice precursori
(dependent de conditia initala a sistemului dupa un eveniment seismic); -fiecare eveniment seismic
descarca sistemul local si transfera o parte din energie zonelor alaturate, motiv pentru care, o
intelegere a evolutiei in timp a unei zone seismogene nu poate fi realizata in lipsa unei retele de
monitorizare la o scara superiora sistemului monitorizat; -in stare critica, factorii declansatori pot
alterna cu factori inhibitori, reducand predictibilitatea unui model si punand accent pe doua obiective
diferite in cadrul monitorizarii unei zone seimogene: 1.evaluarea instalarii unei starii critice; 2.
urmarirea proceselor de mica intensitate si rezonante cu zona hipocentrala, ce pot aduce informatii
privitoare la formarea semnalului declansator; -zona seismogena aflata sub observatie este parte
dintr-un sistem ierarhic superior si cuplata cu ansamblul dinamic/evolutiv GAIA planeta Vie, fapt ce
permite extragerea de informatii utile din sistemele adiacente si subiacente, vii si nevii; -schimbarile
de structura in functie de variatii ale fluxurilor energo-informationale si materiale respecta legi de
universalitate (pattern, constante alometrice) ce permit caracterizarea evolutiei unor sisteme reale.

Lucrarea sistematizeaza informatia extrem de vasta in acest nou domeniu al cercetarii
teoretice si defineste cadrul in care devine utila o monitorizare inteligenta, avand la baza o retea
neurala. Ipoteza de lucru dezvoltata afirma ca, sub influenta unui flux de date convenabil ales,
sistemul dotat cu inteligenta artificiala, si care manifesta el insusi proprietati auto-organizare, tinde
sa se apropie asimtotic catre (sa se sincronizeze cu) Realitatea monitorizata. In acest context, in
locul unui model rigid si unic pentru orice zona geodinamic activa, derivat din teoria generala a
mecanicii ruperior, se obtine un model evolutiv auto-adaptabil la conditiile concrete determinate de
evolutia specifica a zonei seismogene monitorizate, model ce poate oferi sanse sporite de evaluare
a riscului seismic si de identificare a precursorilor evenimentelor seismice.


Bibliografie

1. Pak,P., Tang, C., Earthquakes as a self-organized critical phenomenon, J. Geophys. Res.,
1994, 15635-15637;
2. Rundle, J., Turcotte, D. L., Rundle, P.B., Yakovle, G., Shcherbakov, R.,Pattern dynamics,
pattern hierarchies, and forecasting in complex multi-scale earth systems, Hydrol.Earth
Syst.Sci.Discuss., 2006, 3, 1045-1069
3. Prigogine, I., Dewel, G., Kondepudi, D., Chemistry Far from Equilibrium: Thermodynamics,
Order and Chaos, Cambridge University Press, 2001
4. Lovejoy S., Schertzer, D., Scaling and multifractal fields in the solid earth and topography,
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 14, 465502, 2007
5. A. Bejan, Advanced Engineering Thermodynamics, Wiley-Interscience, 3rd edition, 2006
6. Savageau M.A.,Allometric Morphogenesis of Complex Systems: Derivation of the Basic
Equations from First Principles, Proc.Natl.Acad.Sci.USA, 1979,vol 76,12,pp.6023-6025
7. Munteanu, F., Zugravescu, D., Rusu, M., Suteanu, C., On The synergy of ruptures, Revue
Romaine de Geophysique, T 38, 1994 ;
8. Wolfram, S., A new kind of science , Wolfram Media, Inc., 2002
9. Chua, L.O., Lin, G.-N.; Canonical realization of Chuas circuit family, IEEE transactions on
Circuits and Systems, July 1990, vol. 37, (no. 7): 885-902.
10. Dogaru, R.; Murgan, A.T.Chaotic Resonance Theory, a New Approach for Pattern Storage
and Retrieval in Neural Networks, Neural Networks, 1995. Proceedings., IEEE International
Conference on Volume 6, Issue , Nov/Dec 1995 Page(s):3048
11. Strogatz. S., Sync: The Emerging Science of Spontaneous Order, Hyperion, New York, 2003
12. Munteanu, F., Zugravescu, D.,Ioana, C., Suteanu, C., On the possibility to use the
Feigenbaum scenario in modelling certain geodynamic phenomena, Revue Roumaine de
geologie geophysique et geographie, serie de Geophysique, Tome 38, 1994
13. Munteanu F., Ioana C., Suteanu C., Zugravescu D, Discriminating transient dynamics and
critical states in active geodynamic areas. Studii si cercetari de Geofizica, Tomul 33, 1995
14. Handbook of Chaos Control, Schll, E.,(Editor), Schuster, H.G. (Editor), Wiley,2007
15. Gassmann, F., Noise-induced chaos-order transitions, Physical Review E, volume 55, Nr.3,
1997
16. Yang, T., Chua, L.O., Chaotic impulse radio: a novel chaotic secure communication
system, International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos in Applied Sciences and Engineering, Feb.
2000, vol. 10, (no. 2): 345-357.
17. Lovelock, J. E.. Gaia: A New Look at Life on Earth, Oxford University Press, Oxford NewYork,
1987
18. Planeta Pamant- Planeta Vie, Vol 1, Ed Eagle 2011, coord. D. Zugravescu, F. Munteanu,







Intelligent monitoring system of a seismic active area

F. Munteanu, D. Zugravescu, C.Udriste

UNESCO Chair in Geodynamic,
Institute of Geodynamic Sabba S. Stefanescu of the Romanian Academy


The accurate evaluation of the seismic risk of a certain geographical region is a major
objective in modern geophysical research. Many studies were made to a better understanding of the
cumulative processes of stress build-up in seismic regions, processes that are implicitly responsible
for the ultimate triggering of earthquakes. Recently, such studies have had a new impetus due to the
application of a very new set of theories and models that are all known as the Science of
Complexity. After Mandelbrots introduction of the fractal geometry and the subsequent appearance
and affirmation of the Chaos Theory and the Catastrophes Theory, seismic events have been
reinterpreted as typical examples of manifestations for the dynamics of nonlinear systems. Self-
organization has quickly become the most important and often used concept in modeling
earthquakes. Other studies, made using large databases that included any seismic events of
magnitudes larger than 2 on the Richter scale, highlighted variations between intervals with
acceptable or high predictability of the seismic events, and those in which such events seemed to
have occurred randomly. This observation led to the conclusion that the degree of predictability itself
for seismic events is a variable that changes in time. From this point of view, the earthquake was re-
interpreted as an expression of the geocomplexity, and this new point of view reoriented the
research in this area towards understanding complex phenomena. Specifically, this marked the
beginning of a new stage in geosciences in general, and in seismologic research in particular,
especially regarding the practical application of the main concepts, models, theories and methods
provided by the new paradigm of Complexity.
For our desired application, if one assimilates a seismically active region with a nonlinear
complex and hierarchically structured system, then the following features can be deduced or
assumed as characterizing this system: a) Each seismic event modifies irreversibly the systems
structure, and for this reason a new re-assessment of the situation and re-adaptation of the
analytical model has to be carried out permanently; b) Each seismic event discharges a specific
amount of energy (recorded in earthquakes as the magnitude, e.g. on the Richter scale), and this
energetic variation modifies the internal state of the system and provides totally new and different
initial conditions for the newly started phase of charging. The immediate result of such a behavior is
a much reduced predictability, yet not impossible; c) The energy discharged by each seismic event
that 'resets' the local system is radiated/transferred to neighboring systems of equal or inferior
hierarchical position. For this reason the accurate understanding of the evolution in time of a seismic
region cannot be carried out without an initial thorough and multidimensional monitoring (at the same
or from a higher hierarchical level) using a network of various types of sensors; d) When the system
is in the critical state preceding the seismic discharge, the triggering factors can alternate or combine
with inhibiting ones, resulting in a reduced classic predictability of the seismic event. At the same
time, this also highlights two necessary purposes (or requirements) for which a sensor network
intended to monitor a seismically active region must be designed and set up: - capable to evaluate
objectively when the monitored system (i.e. the seismic region) evolves in a critical state, and -
closely monitor the low intensity processes that are resonant with the epicenter, and that could thus
bring valuable information about how the triggering signal appears; e) The monitored seismic region
is just another element of a larger and also hierarchically organized system (Gaia) [16], being
coupled and interdependent on the interaction with other similar systems in this super-system.
This paper systematizes extremely large information in this new field of research and defines
the theoretical frame for the use of the intelligent monitoring, based on a neural network. Developed
working hypothesis states that, under the influence of particularly convenient data flow, a system
equipped with artificial intelligence, that manifests itself self-organizing properties, tends to approach
asymptotic (to sync with) to the monitored reality. In this context, instead of a single rigid model for
any geodynamic active area, derived from the general theory of fracture mechanics, we obtain an
evolutionary model self-adaptable to specific condition determined by the specific evolution of
seismogenic monitored zone, model that can provide better opportunities for seismic risk
assessment and identification of precursor seismic events.


Bibliography

1. Pak,P., Tang, C., Earthquakes as a self-organized critical phenomenon, J. Geophys. Res.,
1994, 15635-15637;
2. Rundle, J., Turcotte, D. L., Rundle, P.B., Yakovle, G., Shcherbakov, R.,Pattern dynamics,
pattern hierarchies, and forecasting in complex multi-scale earth systems, Hydrol.Earth
Syst.Sci.Discuss., 2006, 3, 1045-1069
3. Prigogine, I., Dewel, G., Kondepudi, D., Chemistry Far from Equilibrium: Thermodynamics,
Order and Chaos, Cambridge University Press, 2001
4. Lovejoy S., Schertzer, D., Scaling and multifractal fields in the solid earth and topography,
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 14, 465502, 2007
5. A. Bejan, Advanced Engineering Thermodynamics, Wiley-Interscience, 3rd edition, 2006
6. Savageau M.A.,Allometric Morphogenesis of Complex Systems: Derivation of the Basic
Equations from First Principles, Proc.Natl.Acad.Sci.USA, 1979,vol 76,12,pp.6023-6025
7. Munteanu, F., Zugravescu, D., Rusu, M., Suteanu, C., On The synergy of ruptures, Revue
Romaine de Geophysique, T 38, 1994 ;
8. Wolfram, S., A new kind of science , Wolfram Media, Inc., 2002
9. Chua, L.O., Lin, G.-N.; Canonical realization of Chuas circuit family, IEEE transactions on
Circuits and Systems, July 1990, vol. 37, (no. 7): 885-902.
10. Dogaru, R.; Murgan, A.T.Chaotic Resonance Theory, a New Approach for Pattern Storage
and Retrieval in Neural Networks, Neural Networks, 1995. Proceedings., IEEE International
Conference on Volume 6, Issue , Nov/Dec 1995 Page(s):3048
11. Strogatz. S., Sync: The Emerging Science of Spontaneous Order, Hyperion, New York, 2003
12. Munteanu, F., Zugravescu, D.,Ioana, C., Suteanu, C., On the possibility to use the
Feigenbaum scenario in modelling certain geodynamic phenomena, Revue Roumaine de
geologie geophysique et geographie, serie de Geophysique, Tome 38, 1994
13. Munteanu F., Ioana C., Suteanu C., Zugravescu D, Discriminating transient dynamics and
critical states in active geodynamic areas. Studii si cercetari de Geofizica, Tomul 33, 1995
14. Handbook of Chaos Control, Schll, E.,(Editor), Schuster, H.G. (Editor), Wiley,2007
15. Gassmann, F., Noise-induced chaos-order transitions, Physical Review E, volume 55, Nr.3,
1997
16. Yang, T., Chua, L.O., Chaotic impulse radio: a novel chaotic secure communication
system, International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos in Applied Sciences and Engineering, Feb.
2000, vol. 10, (no. 2): 345-357.
17. Lovelock, J. E.. Gaia: A New Look at Life on Earth, Oxford University Press, Oxford NewYork,
1987
18. Planeta Pamant- Planeta Vie, Vol 1, Ed Eagle 2011, coord. D. Zugravescu, F. Munteanu,