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An analysis of the reasons why China removed its mega oil drilling platform from Vietnamese waters a month early. This analysis stresses China's attempt to manipulate political divisions in Vietnam's leadership.
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Thayer China’s Oil Rig and Political in-fighting in Hanoi
An analysis of the reasons why China removed its mega oil drilling platform from Vietnamese waters a month early. This analysis stresses China's attempt to manipulate political divisions in Vietnam's leadership.
An analysis of the reasons why China removed its mega oil drilling platform from Vietnamese waters a month early. This analysis stresses China's attempt to manipulate political divisions in Vietnam's leadership.
Rig and Political In-fighting in Hanoi Carlyle A. Thayer July 16, 2014 [client name deleted] We are preparing an assessment on the South China Sea dispute and seek your input on how the political infighting inside the Vietnam Communist Party has prevented Vietnam from taking legal action against China. Q1 Infighting between pro-Chinese and pro-American fractions inside the Vietnam Communist Party has constrained Vietnam from taking legal action against China even before it moved the oil rig. Can you confirm this and how would you substantiate your assessment? ANSWER: Vietnam has been considering legal action against China for six years according to Hanoi-based sources. As a result of the current oil rig crisis Vietnam considered two separate approaches, one regarding sovereignty over the Paracels and the other over the Spratlys. The fact that Vietnam did not initiate action against China first nor support the Philippines are evidence that the legal option did not secure a majority approval in the Politburo. It was also noticeable that Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung spoke strongly in public about the legal action; he stated that legal action would depend on timing. General Phung Quang Thanh said at the Shangri-La Dialogue that the legal option was a last resort. State Counsellor Yang Jiechi, during his recent visit, is reported to have warned Vietnam against taking legal action. Q2. Now that China has moved the rig well ahead of its original mid-August deadline, is it fair to say that the pro-Chinese faction has gained the upper hand? If, so why? If not, why not? ANSWER: Chinas withdrawal of its oil rig will result in an immediate lowering of tensions. China will also withdraw its armada of over one hundred ships and vessels. This will set the stage for Vietnam to withdraw its Coast Guard and Fisheries Surveillance Force ships. Thus the basis will be created for talks between China and Vietnam to discuss how to get bilateral relations back on track. The so-called pro- China camp, or accommodationists, will resist any actions that will exacerbate relations with China. This means legal action and an upgrading of relations with the United States are unlikely in the immediate future. Prime Minister Dung risks being left out on a limb. A meeting of the party Central Committee is scheduled to review Thayer Consultancy ABN # 65 648 097 123
2 the pros and cons of taking legal action against China. This meeting will forward its recommendations to the Politburo. Q3. From the viewpoint of the pro-Chinese faction, what would be the ramifications of getting too close to the United States? Also, from the viewpoint of the pro- American fraction, how bad is it to continue to compromise with China, politically and economically? ANSWER: Getting too close to the US would result in negative pressures or even sanctions by China. Getting too close to the US would entail some response on the US requirement for demonstrable progress on human rights and US pressures for greater military access to Vietnam, such as Cam Ranh Bay. Increase3d naval port visits and joint military exercises. The so-called pro-American faction would feel that accommodation with China would constrain Vietnams freedom of action and put Vietnam into a position of subordination and dependence on China. Ideological dependency would reduce the prospects for economic reforms in Vietnam. Q4. How would the removal of the oil rig affect the infighting between the two factions? How could it end up? ANSWER: The removal of the oil rig will result in reduced tensions and increase the likelihood of high-level bilateral talks. This would favour those who want to accommodate with China. Internal party in-fighting is likely to intensify over disagreement over short term gains versus long term interests. Q5. How would the pro-China vs pro-US dynamic shape the way Vietnam handles future conflicts with China? ANSWER: If Vietnams leadership continues to be divided along pro-China and pro- American lines, it would mean that Vietnam would not be able to step up relations with the United States in the defence and security sectors. Vietnam would proceed cautiously and in fits and starts. As for future conflict with China, the accommodationist group would self-censor itself. They would veto any policy likely to arouse Chinese ire. They would in effect bandwagon with China, that is, avoid criticism of China in the expectation that Vietnam would be rewarded economically for its good behaviour. The problem is that sharing a common socialist ideology would bind Vietnam hands and limit its ability to act in it national interest (loi ich dan toc). In short, continued contestation between Vietnams pro-China and pro-US factions would undermine Vietnams ability to pursue its national interests and stand up to Chinese pressures. Q6. Do you think the removal of the oil rig is connected to the passage of a resolution by the US Senate last week critical of China and the telephone conversation between Presidents Obama and Xi Jingping several days ago? ANSWER: The removal of Chinas oil rig was not directly related to the Senate resolution and the phone conversation between President Obama and Xi because decisions of this nature are not made on the spur of the moment. China had probably decided to remove the oil rig because sufficient commercial data had been gathered and nothing would be lost by concluding oil exploration activities early. No
3 doubt the impending Typhoon Rammasun impacted on the decision to withdraw early. Finally, China also considered strategic policy. It moved to influence a forthcoming pivotal meeting of the Central Committee of the Vietnam Communist Party to decide on whether or not to take legal action against China and, possibly, to seek closer relations with the United States.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, South China Sea: Chinas Oil Rig and Political In-fighting in Hanoi, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 16, 2014. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key. Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.